Will the Truss link be as damaging to the CON brand as Corbyn was to LAB? – politicalbetting.com
Will the Truss link be as damaging to the CON brand as Corbyn was to LAB? – politicalbetting.com
The sure way of knowing that the Tories are in serious trouble is when they they seek to associate Starmer with his predecessor Corbyn. Even Sunak got into the act at his first PMQs.
Comments
-
First like Balrog's performance at this Brazilian election (I assume)0
-
FPTBalrog said:
I can't remember who it was that recommended the bet about ten days ago. I know pretty much nothing about Brazil.TheWhiteRabbit said:
A win worthy of the name of the site!Balrog said:
I make 1006 if I win. Or looks like about 900 locked in if I put some money on BolsenaroTheWhiteRabbit said:
Not enough!Casino_Royale said:Eked out a shitty £38.07 all green on Lula from dumb trading.
Pays for a meal, I guess.
Woah. What you going to cream from that?TheWhiteRabbit said:Currently have £1,900 staked on Lula... biggest bet I've made, by about double.
+£376
(cash out £269)
Surely the PB experience0 -
QTWTAIY0
-
The answer is no and yes.
No, because she simply hasn't had time to bed in opinion like Corbyn had over years, and her successor can quite quickly repudiate everything she stood for. In fact, that process started before she was even gone.
Yes, because her short tenure caused such a commotion so swiftly and meaningfully that no one could ignore it, not even her party, and has likely crystallised opinion about them for years to come as it revealed the absolute mess we are in. Truss need not even be mentioned, but reference to what her time led to, and why, will still hit home hard.2 -
A narrow landing strip but it looks like Lula may have nicked it.Farooq said:Who could have thought the Brazilian election would end up a close shave?
Edit: pipped!0 -
I put some money on Bolsenaro when it got to 90, so I win over 970 now whatever happens.TheWhiteRabbit said:First like Balrog's performance at this Brazilian election (I assume)
Pity it doesn't always turn out so well3 -
Just reminded myself of my amazing analytical powers
https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/3099211/#Comment_3099211
OK, assuming remining in person turnout in PA matches current country proportions and Mail ballots split 78/20 in close and lean Dem counties and 68/32 in Trump heavy districts then I have Biden winning by
82,953 votes.
But, of course, that is just a rough estimate.
Actual result was Biden by 80,5557 -
I'm not convinced about either tbh. What does Labour gain from banging on about Truss when the consequences are still here? Labour needs to hang our economic mess round each Tory's neck; tying it to Truss enables Rishi to play the new broom card.kle4 said:The answer is no and yes.
No, because she simply hasn't had itime to bed in opinion like Corbyn over years, and her successor can quite quickly repudiate everything she stood for. In fact, that process started before she was even gone.
Yes, because her short tenure caused such a commotion so swiftly and meaningfully that no one could ignore it, not even her party, and has likely crystallised opinion about them for years to come as it revealed the absolute mess we are in. Truss need not even be mentioned, but reference to what her time led to, and why, will still hit home hard.0 -
Arguably worse as at least Corbyn had some popular appeal, he got 40% in 2017 and 32% in 2019, even if he was not able to match the popular appeal of Boris at the last general election.
Truss however never had any significant appeal, even Tory MPs wanted Sunak and Tory members Badenoch but within a month had pursued an agenda so radical and unpopular and for which she had no mandate from the electorate that she was polling worse than the LDs did in 2005 and 20105 -
Not sure. It was all over so quickly. I think Johnson did a lot of the damage with Partygate and defence of sleaze, and no doubt Truss made things very bad, but there is a strange sense of order being restored this week. It’s been slow on PB at times, and you can feel the media desperately trying to keep the ‘fun’ going.
I have a sense that the Tories know a big defeat is coming and that the next generation are keeping their heads down, pace Wallace etc. Younger Tories who survive the cull will have a chance to reshape the party, and it’s surely needed. But will it be like Hague, IDS, Howard, or Cameron?1 -
One percent ahead with 85% counted means JB would have to be ahead by over 7% with the yet to be counted votes. Not impossible but unlikely.0
-
What about next time?Alistair said:Just reminded myself of my amazing analytical powers
https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/3099211/#Comment_3099211
OK, assuming remining in person turnout in PA matches current country proportions and Mail ballots split 78/20 in close and lean Dem counties and 68/32 in Trump heavy districts then I have Biden winning by
82,953 votes.
But, of course, that is just a rough estimate.
Actual result was Biden by 80,5550 -
I remember that. Absolutely superb forecasting.Alistair said:Just reminded myself of my amazing analytical powers
https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/3099211/#Comment_3099211
OK, assuming remining in person turnout in PA matches current country proportions and Mail ballots split 78/20 in close and lean Dem counties and 68/32 in Trump heavy districts then I have Biden winning by
82,953 votes.
But, of course, that is just a rough estimate.
Actual result was Biden by 80,5551 -
What worries me is how people are saying 'there needs to be an investigation.'
I would have thought that given the foreign secretary soon to be prime minister's phone was hacked that an investigation would already have taken place internally? Right???? What we'd like to know is what are the findings (so far).5 -
Fortunately for the Tories, Starmer does not have the charisma of Blair and will not have the golden economic legacy of low unemployment, low inflation and a balanced budget Major and Clarke left in 1997 either,turbotubbs said:Not sure. It was all over so quickly. I think Johnson did a lot of the damage with Partygate and defence of sleaze, and no doubt Truss made things very bad, but there is a strange sense of order being restored this week. It’s been slow on PB at times, and you can feel the media desperately trying to keep the ‘fun’ going.
I have a sense that the Tories know a big defeat is coming and that the next generation are keeping their heads down, pace Wallace etc. Younger Tories who survive the cull will have a chance to reshape the party, and it’s surely needed. But will it be like Hague, IDS, Howard, or Cameron?
If inflation continues to rise, further austerity and tax rises are required and there are strikes a Starmer government would soon become unpopular0 -
It’s all over.geoffw said:One percent ahead with 85% counted means JB would have to be ahead by over 7% with the yet to be counted votes. Not impossible but unlikely.
Lula is 1.01 on Betfair.
0 -
FPT...
Is the Honourable Member for Bish outing herself...
...as a Sunderland supporter?0 -
So Lula who left office 12 years ago sails back into the presidency to begin a third term at the age of 77.0
-
People will be waxing lyrical about this election for years to come.Farooq said:Who could have thought the Brazilian election would end up a close shave?
6 -
Bolsonaro tried everything . Last minute bribes to the electorate in a desperate bid to win during the final debate .
Good riddance to the stain on humanity.4 -
I find Tories banging on about Corbo effing pathetic, as I have said frequently on here. It just seems desperate. The bloke is not even a Labour MP anymore.
Similarly, I doubt Labour droning on about Liz Truss will help them much. It just seems a bit needy when she is no longer PM.1 -
95% in from Brazil
Lula 50.6% Bolsonaro 49.3%
https://resultados.tse.jus.br/oficial/app/index.html#/eleicao/resultados0 -
The alternative of course to no austerity at all is massively increased taxes, on average earners as well as the rich given the scale of the current deficitFarooq said:
Austerity is a choice, not a requirementHYUFD said:
Fortunately for the Tories, Starmer does not have the charisma of Blair and will not have the golden economic legacy of low unemployment, low inflation and a balanced budget Major and Clarke left in 1997 either,turbotubbs said:Not sure. It was all over so quickly. I think Johnson did a lot of the damage with Partygate and defence of sleaze, and no doubt Truss made things very bad, but there is a strange sense of order being restored this week. It’s been slow on PB at times, and you can feel the media desperately trying to keep the ‘fun’ going.
I have a sense that the Tories know a big defeat is coming and that the next generation are keeping their heads down, pace Wallace etc. Younger Tories who survive the cull will have a chance to reshape the party, and it’s surely needed. But will it be like Hague, IDS, Howard, or Cameron?
If inflation continues to rise, further austerity and tax rises are required and there are strikes a Starmer government would soon become unpopular2 -
Lula just edging Amazonas.
Bloody NIMBIES everywhere!0 -
Don't count his type out until they are physically removed from office.nico679 said:Bolsonaro tried everything . Last minute bribes to the electorate in a desperate bid to win during the final debate .
Good riddance to the stain on humanity.
It's certainly been a much closer election than anticipated!0 -
Perhaps you missed when he came on here and posted a photo of somebody he called an autistic virgin and then said that was what I look like. What is that if not bullying? He then did it to several other posters.Richard_Tyndall said:
Got to say I think you are comprehensively wrong in this assessment. I don't recognise any of what you claim about him. He is forthright and does a fine line in abuse but he is no bully. He doesn't expect anyone to be cowed by his postings and delights in people fighting back against him. I would suggest that it is undeniable that he is an asset to this site even though I disagree with him on the majority of what he posts.CorrectHorseBattery3 said:Leon/SeanT/MissyG/whoever is a nasty, racist, horrible bully and when he comes on the site the quality drops quickly. I now actively avoid the site when he is around.
You are wrong Richard, completely wrong.4 -
Brazil at least seems to be able to manage to count over 100 million votes in a few hours.
Take note US and Australia.6 -
Lula 1.44% ahead with 2.97% left to count. This is the point where the tanks start their engines....1
-
The problem is that for all the bullish noises about defeating Russia and its Potemkin army, if we find Russia guilty of hacking the government, cutting those cables to the Shetlands, and all the way back to Salisbury and Litvinenko, then we'd need to respond. But how? Blow up Nordstream? According to Russia, we've already done that. Decline Russian donations to the Conservative Party? Get real. Safer to leave the whole thing undetermined. It was probably Russia, but we can't be 100 per cent sure. That'll do it. It's what Jeremy Corbyn would have said, isn't it? Except he would have blocked foreign donations.FrankBooth said:What worries me is how people are saying 'there needs to be an investigation.'
I would have thought that given the foreign secretary soon to be prime minister's phone was hacked that an investigation would already have taken place internally? Right???? What we'd like to know is what are the findings (so far).0 -
What's the legislature situation like in Brazil?0
-
Minas Gerais now a dead heat.0
-
It's easy to see Truss becoming a bit of an unperson in Conservative circles, though the consequences of her six weeks will reverberate down the years.HYUFD said:Arguably worse as at least Corbyn had some popular appeal, he got 40% in 2017 and 32% in 2019, even if he was not able to match the popular appeal of Boris at the last general election.
Truss however never had any significant appeal, even Tory MPs wanted Sunak and Tory members Badenoch but within a month had pursued an agenda so radical and unpopular and for which she had no mandate from the electorate that she was polling worse than the LDs did in 2005 and 2010
Johnson has more potential to be a Corbyn figure; toxic to many, loved by his fans and refusing to go quietly.
Starmer gave Jez the rope to hang himself then efficiently pushed him out of the party. Can Sunak be so ruthless and effective?1 -
Lula has just crept ahead in MG, 50.05% to 49.97%.dixiedean said:Minas Gerais now a dead heat.
0 -
Yes, the dumpster fire has been a collective effort.turbotubbs said:Not sure. It was all over so quickly. I think Johnson did a lot of the damage with Partygate and defence of sleaze, and no doubt Truss made things very bad, but there is a strange sense of order being restored this week. It’s been slow on PB at times, and you can feel the media desperately trying to keep the ‘fun’ going.
I have a sense that the Tories know a big defeat is coming and that the next generation are keeping their heads down, pace Wallace etc. Younger Tories who survive the cull will have a chance to reshape the party, and it’s surely needed. But will it be like Hague, IDS, Howard, or Cameron?
The acrid stench won’t be expunged by getting rid of a single figurehead like Corbyn. It’s going to take time.0 -
I have no idea.SandyRentool said:FPT...
Is the Honourable Member for Bish outing herself...
...as a Sunderland supporter?0 -
There has been an investigation I'm sure, it's knowledge of that that people are leaking, that's how the leakers know the target, scope, some of the dates, and supposed culprits. But that does not mean that the findings should be disclosed, there are a whole bunch of good reasons for not letting the Russians know what we know, and you really don't want the whole world knowing.FrankBooth said:What worries me is how people are saying 'there needs to be an investigation.'
I would have thought that given the foreign secretary soon to be prime minister's phone was hacked that an investigation would already have taken place internally? Right???? What we'd like to know is what are the findings (so far).
For example say there's a new highly effective hack that has bypassed a fully patched and managed iPhone, perhaps even the iMessage Blastdoor didn't work (which is a bit of isolated software that parses messages), you really don't want anyone else knowing any details, because the Russians may know what works, but the Chinese may not. If details come out, even indirectly, that can tip off adversaries that "hey there is a way around that protection, lets take another look at how to attack it".
The people who are qualified to assess what it is safe to say almost certainly aren't leaking anything, it's people who don't know that are going to the papers.1 -
Pretty bloody awful.rcs1000 said:
I detest Bolsanaro, but Lula is pretty bloody awful too. Poor Brazilians.nico679 said:Bolsonaro tried everything . Last minute bribes to the electorate in a desperate bid to win during the final debate .
Good riddance to the stain on humanity.
But not psychotic.
So, that could be seen as fortunate and sensible Brazilians.0 -
He must be pretty detested himself to only scrape a win against Bolsonaro.rcs1000 said:
I detest Bolsanaro, but Lula is pretty bloody awful too. Poor Brazilians.nico679 said:Bolsonaro tried everything . Last minute bribes to the electorate in a desperate bid to win during the final debate .
Good riddance to the stain on humanity.2 -
I remember a Froggy relative of mine saying of Chirac vs Le Pen in 2002 that she would vote for the crook, not the fascist.kle4 said:
He must be pretty detested himself to only scrape a win against Bolsonaro.rcs1000 said:
I detest Bolsanaro, but Lula is pretty bloody awful too. Poor Brazilians.nico679 said:Bolsonaro tried everything . Last minute bribes to the electorate in a desperate bid to win during the final debate .
Good riddance to the stain on humanity.
I imagine lots of Brazilians thought the same today.1 -
Knowing who was behind it is only part of the issue. What information was compromised, what dangers did it pose and how could it have been avoided?DecrepiterJohnL said:
The problem is that for all the bullish noises about defeating Russia and its Potemkin army, if we find Russia guilty of hacking the government, cutting those cables to the Shetlands, and all the way back to Salisbury and Litvinenko, then we'd need to respond. But how? Blow up Nordstream? According to Russia, we've already done that. Decline Russian donations to the Conservative Party? Get real. Safer to leave the whole thing undetermined. It was probably Russia, but we can't be 100 per cent sure. That'll do it. It's what Jeremy Corbyn would have said, isn't it? Except he would have blocked foreign donations.FrankBooth said:What worries me is how people are saying 'there needs to be an investigation.'
I would have thought that given the foreign secretary soon to be prime minister's phone was hacked that an investigation would already have taken place internally? Right???? What we'd like to know is what are the findings (so far).1 -
If Lula scores less than 51% even if he makes it to 50.9% his majority will sound very small: "Lula has won the election by 50 point ... percent to Bolsonaro's 49 point ... percent." It's unlikely that Bolsonaro will make a friendly call tonight to concede the election and wish Lula all the best. He will probably cry foul.0
-
Nick Hardwick
@nicklhardwick2
What’s happening in Manston is a national disgrace. Hundred illegally detained on the whim of a politician. Women and children including from Iran sleeping on mats on the floors of tents for weeks as winter approaches. Diseases of the past rife. And now firebombs. Appalling0 -
-
Biden also only got 51% against Trump, neither he nor Lula were great candidates but they weren't Trump or Bolsonarokle4 said:
He must be pretty detested himself to only scrape a win against Bolsonaro.rcs1000 said:
I detest Bolsanaro, but Lula is pretty bloody awful too. Poor Brazilians.nico679 said:Bolsonaro tried everything . Last minute bribes to the electorate in a desperate bid to win during the final debate .
Good riddance to the stain on humanity.4 -
That's it. Lula 1.78% ahead with 1.72% left to count.
EDIT. Jumped the gun! 1.6% ahead!
DOUBLE EDIT. That's really it. 1.6% ahead, 1.55% left.0 -
Final result has Lula 2.1m ahead of Bols 51/490
-
The polls underestimated Bolsonaro once again, although not by as much as in the first round.
Next election: Denmark on Tuesday.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2022_Danish_general_election#20221 -
The sentiment probably goes much further back, but the first time I saw it was in the 1991 Louisia governor's race between corrupt John Edwards and former KKK leader, David Duke:
'Humorous unofficial bumper stickers were created in support of Edwards over Duke, despite Edwards' negative reputation. One bumper sticker read "Vote for the Lizard, not the Wizard", while another read "Vote For The Crook: It's Important."'
source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1991_Louisiana_gubernatorial_election
Something similar was used in the 2002 French presidential election, urging a vote for Jacques Chirac.
(Fun fact: At one of the trials in which Edwards escaped conviction, the jurors, who had been housed in a hotel, stole towels from the hotel. So, one can say that he truly had a jury of his peers.)2 -
Lula an inspiration and role model for a 70 something Boris Johnson.2
-
Cry moreDJ41 said:If Lula scores less than 51% even if he makes it to 50.9% his majority will sound very small: "Lula has won the election by 50 point ... percent to Bolsonaro's 49 point ... percent." It's unlikely that Bolsonaro will make a friendly call tonight to concede the election and wish Lula all the best. He will probably cry foul.
0 -
Let's stop talking about Leon. Being the focus of conversation would be what he would want after all.CorrectHorseBattery3 said:
Perhaps you missed when he came on here and posted a photo of somebody he called an autistic virgin and then said that was what I look like. What is that if not bullying? He then did it to several other posters.Richard_Tyndall said:
Got to say I think you are comprehensively wrong in this assessment. I don't recognise any of what you claim about him. He is forthright and does a fine line in abuse but he is no bully. He doesn't expect anyone to be cowed by his postings and delights in people fighting back against him. I would suggest that it is undeniable that he is an asset to this site even though I disagree with him on the majority of what he posts.CorrectHorseBattery3 said:Leon/SeanT/MissyG/whoever is a nasty, racist, horrible bully and when he comes on the site the quality drops quickly. I now actively avoid the site when he is around.
You are wrong Richard, completely wrong.
Just to back up your "autistic virgin" comment Horse, in my book anyone who proposes "autistic" as a sleight, or insult is a 24 carat arse. I have a dog in this race so I can't begin to explain how it p***** me off when he casually uses such a put down, claims to be an expert on ASD, and when challenged he resorts to insults like "humourless" and "snowflake".4 -
60.5m to 58.2m 51%/49% final result2
-
In the online words of the Brazilian Justica Eleitoral:
"Eleição matematicamente definida (Eleito)"0 -
Detailed map on this page.
https://especiaisg1.globo/politica/eleicoes/2022/mapas/mapa-da-apuracao-no-brasil-presidente/2-turno/2 -
Sunak announcing he is now going to COP is not, as opponents will so desperately attempt to portray it, a u-turn on yet another bad decision - because in truth such great progress has been made on the credit crisis budget this week, things are now in a different place freeing him up to go.
🤣2 -
I wonder when they declare the result.0
-
It'll turn out to have been an epic political cock-up and u-turn worthy of Truss herself.MoonRabbit said:Sunak announcing he is now going to COP is not, as opponents will so desperately attempt to portray it, a u-turn on yet another bad decision - because in truth such great progress has been made on the credit crisis budget this week, things are now in a different place freeing him up to go.
🤣0 -
COP 27 sounds like just another jolly for the world's politicians.MoonRabbit said:Sunak announcing he is now going to COP is not, as opponents will so desperately attempt to portray it, a u-turn on yet another bad decision - because in truth such great progress has been made on the credit crisis budget this week, things are now in a different place freeing him up to go.
🤣2 -
Lula v Bolsanero sounds like a case of " there is no settling the point of precedency between a louse and a flea".Andy_JS said:The polls underestimated Bolsonaro once again, although not by as much as in the first round.
Next election: Denmark on Tuesday.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2022_Danish_general_election#20221 -
Brazil has two States named Rio Grande.
Neither are anywhere near the Amazon.
That doesn't sit easily with me.1 -
Immediately before the G20 in Bali.....Sean_F said:
COP 27 sounds like just another jolly for the world's politicians.MoonRabbit said:Sunak announcing he is now going to COP is not, as opponents will so desperately attempt to portray it, a u-turn on yet another bad decision - because in truth such great progress has been made on the credit crisis budget this week, things are now in a different place freeing him up to go.
🤣1 -
Cry Hard....Anabobazina said:
Cry moreDJ41 said:If Lula scores less than 51% even if he makes it to 50.9% his majority will sound very small: "Lula has won the election by 50 point ... percent to Bolsonaro's 49 point ... percent." It's unlikely that Bolsonaro will make a friendly call tonight to concede the election and wish Lula all the best. He will probably cry foul.
0 -
Some shade from the palace.Wulfrun_Phil said:
It'll turn out to have been an epic political cock-up and u-turn worthy of Truss herself.MoonRabbit said:Sunak announcing he is now going to COP is not, as opponents will so desperately attempt to portray it, a u-turn on yet another bad decision - because in truth such great progress has been made on the credit crisis budget this week, things are now in a different place freeing him up to go.
🤣
https://twitter.com/tomwatson/status/1586743300635213829
0 -
Hmmm...Lula has his issues, some fairly large, but he's not pretty much a fascist and conspiracist loon intent on destroying the Amazon. More like choosing between an ear infection (unpleasant, annoying but fundamentally survivable and liveable with) and terminal cancer (very much not as a Bolsonaro win would mean the end of meaningful democracy).Sean_F said:
Lula v Bolsanero sounds like a case of " there is no settling the point of precedency between a louse and a flea".Andy_JS said:The polls underestimated Bolsonaro once again, although not by as much as in the first round.
Next election: Denmark on Tuesday.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2022_Danish_general_election#20222 -
Yes. And it puts us On topic. Why on Earth waste time talking about Lettuce Liz - it’s the lettuce that is now more newsworthy anyway - when Sunak is the new gift that keeps on giving?Wulfrun_Phil said:
It'll turn out to have been an epic political cock-up and u-turn worthy of Truss herself.MoonRabbit said:Sunak announcing he is now going to COP is not, as opponents will so desperately attempt to portray it, a u-turn on yet another bad decision - because in truth such great progress has been made on the credit crisis budget this week, things are now in a different place freeing him up to go.
🤣
What is already crystal clear, wether it’s him personally, or his confidants and strategists, likely all of them, they are acting MASSIVELY INSECURE. All Sunak’s unforced errors come from pandering to the right, be it dodgy back room deals with MPs (that weren’t remotely necessary were they?) bizarre right wing policy for the party at hustings now being scrapped, or whatever he thinks will please the right wing media commenteriate, like axing the Net Zero supporting MPs and distancing UK from the COP.
This psychological flaw of insecurity isn’t going anywhere, so it’s too easy to predict continued decisions pandering to the right, damagingly rowed back on leaving him lampooned as mister flip flop.
Incredible. Three Primeministers in one parliament and they have come up with another dud 🤦♀️ The flaw this time, probably predictable with hindsight, after the brass necks of the previous two greasy polers, Sunak, like the Lion in WoO lacks the courage of his own convictions. No backbone. Ironically not enough brass neck this time.4 -
Musk is such a dweeb
https://twitter.com/daveyalba/status/1586788146578178049?t=i6FtUcbadC2Fxo4BCV8Q1w&s=090 -
Of the 10 million votes up for grabs from minor candidates in the first round, 3 million went to Lula and 7 million to Bolsonaro.
https://g1.globo.com/politica/eleicoes/2022/apuracao/presidente.ghtml1 -
Xmas always make me cryMarqueeMark said:
Cry Hard....Anabobazina said:
Cry moreDJ41 said:If Lula scores less than 51% even if he makes it to 50.9% his majority will sound very small: "Lula has won the election by 50 point ... percent to Bolsonaro's 49 point ... percent." It's unlikely that Bolsonaro will make a friendly call tonight to concede the election and wish Lula all the best. He will probably cry foul.
1 -
For all of Lula’s faults he invested in welfare and education during his previous time in office . The election was far too close for comfort and with wannabe dictators like Bolsonaro if you don’t remove them after one term they can cause huge damage to the institutions that are the foundations of democracy .
1 -
Is…. is it over? Can we say Bolsonaro lost? Might there still be a rain forest?0
-
Overall, pretty poor performance from the Brazilian polling industry.
I rode Lula’s odds down on R1 (on the basis the polls and odds were just too far apart) then sat out R2.
My betfair account is up a couple of hundred quid, so I can’t complain.3 -
I think hacking the government and cutting cables are different kinds of thing.DecrepiterJohnL said:
The problem is that for all the bullish noises about defeating Russia and its Potemkin army, if we find Russia guilty of hacking the government, cutting those cables to the Shetlands, and all the way back to Salisbury and Litvinenko, then we'd need to respond. But how? Blow up Nordstream? According to Russia, we've already done that. Decline Russian donations to the Conservative Party? Get real. Safer to leave the whole thing undetermined. It was probably Russia, but we can't be 100 per cent sure. That'll do it. It's what Jeremy Corbyn would have said, isn't it? Except he would have blocked foreign donations.FrankBooth said:What worries me is how people are saying 'there needs to be an investigation.'
I would have thought that given the foreign secretary soon to be prime minister's phone was hacked that an investigation would already have taken place internally? Right???? What we'd like to know is what are the findings (so far).
The British are probably already trying to hack the Russian government, and for all we know succeeding. If you get breached in something you and the adversary are already constantly trying to do you don't need to respond, you just try harder to win more and lose less.
AFAIK cutting communications cables would be something that countries that aren't at war generally haven't been doing. I'm not sure what the response should be if they were doing that, it's complicated. You probably want some kind of response to deter it, while you also generally don't want to escalate. But they're not doing this western infrastructure stuff as far as I can tell. This stuff breaks all the time and you fix it. Cables get cut by anchors, power grids get taken down by squirrels.1 -
Finally a (small) betting winner.
Bolsanaro looks well set to win again in the future to me0 -
I don’t understand the lead, 2nd and 3rd paras.
At GE2019 “reminding voters of the Corbyn connection” was pointing out who the current party leader was, the man who would be PM if they were elected. The lead itself goes on to say that the connection became relatively insignificant once he was out of office.0 -
Same as Mrs May, really, who could have struck out for a compromise softer Brexit and left her mark on history, but for her fear of the nutters behind her.MoonRabbit said:
Yes. And it puts us On topic. Why on Earth waste time talking about Lettuce Liz - it’s the lettuce that is now more newsworthy anyway - when Sunak is the new gift that keeps on giving?Wulfrun_Phil said:
It'll turn out to have been an epic political cock-up and u-turn worthy of Truss herself.MoonRabbit said:Sunak announcing he is now going to COP is not, as opponents will so desperately attempt to portray it, a u-turn on yet another bad decision - because in truth such great progress has been made on the credit crisis budget this week, things are now in a different place freeing him up to go.
🤣
What is already crystal clear, wether it’s him personally, or his confidants and strategists, likely all of them, they are acting MASSIVELY INSECURE. All Sunak’s unforced errors come from pandering to the right, be it dodgy back room deals with MPs (that weren’t remotely necessary were they?) bizarre right wing policy for the party at hustings now being scrapped, or whatever he thinks will please the right wing media commenteriate, like axing the Net Zero supporting MPs and distancing UK from the COP.
This psychological flaw of insecurity isn’t going anywhere, so it’s too easy to predict continued decisions pandering to the right, damagingly rowed back on leaving him lampooned as mister flip flop.
Incredible. Three Primeministers in one parliament and they have come up with another dud 🤦♀️ The flaw this time, probably predictable with hindsight, after the brass necks of the previous two greasy polers, Sunak, like the Lion in WoO lacks the courage of his own convictions. No backbone. Ironically not enough brass neck this time.0 -
Yes yes and yes.biggles said:Is…. is it over? Can we say Bolsonaro lost? Might there still be a rain forest?
Someone on here posted yesterday that the world really ought to step in and support Brazil financially to save the Amazon. It really does matter and yes we should. We could probably do so in conjunction with a carefully managed eco-tourism. Think of the Amazon as a giant Eden Project or Serengeti and you get the idea.
p.s. Good morning!1 -
It's an interesting idea, but there are massive problems with it:Heathener said:
Yes yes and yes.biggles said:Is…. is it over? Can we say Bolsonaro lost? Might there still be a rain forest?
Someone on here posted yesterday that the world really ought to step in and support Brazil financially to save the Amazon. It really does matter and yes we should. We could probably do so in conjunction with a carefully managed eco-tourism. Think of the Amazon as a giant Eden Project or Serengeti and you get the idea.
p.s. Good morning!
*) There is a good chance that any monetary aid given disappears down a black hole, and the rainforest continues to be destroyed. How do you ensure it does not?
*) It is a massive area. The cost to police any operations would be truly massive.
*) As well as the size of the area, the transport network is very poor, hindering policing. This means more local police, who are easily bribed or cowed. Or increasing transport links, which then makes access for bad people easier...
*) There is not the political will to do it in Brazil. Occasional good words about it, but too many in Brazil see it as a resource to be plundered.2 -
On the Truss story, the overnight front pages are the first ones to be (almost) universally damaging to Sunak's Government. From the Liz Truss story to the appalling Suella Braverman to Rishi Sunak's frankly disgraceful decision to boycott COP27 (which he might be about to U-turn on) this tory Government's sleaze is floating back to the surface like the turds in the sea that they encourage. Apologies to any of you having breakfast at this point. Their lackadaisical approach to national security would take my breath away if it any longer caused me surprise.
I was prepared to give Rishi Sunak time and grace but his Cabinet appointments revealed him to be a weak man or poor judgement: an indecisiveness which characterised his failure to take down Johnson at peak partygate, to the cost of this country.
He is also himself mired in sleaze and dodgy money.
This idea that Sunak and Truss are not joined at the hip also won't wash. They both stood by their Prime Minister Boris Johnson, one as his Chancellor of the Exchequer, the other as his Foreign Secretary.
2 -
Just adding another, more general point: IMV mass tourism is *not* a good way to preserve pristine wildernesses. Mass tourism is inherently resource-hungry and polluting. You can have 'carefully managed' small-volume tourism (e.g. the Antarctic), but the finds raised from that would be absolutely trifling compared to the policing costs.JosiasJessop said:
It's an interesting idea, but there are massive problems with it:Heathener said:
Yes yes and yes.biggles said:Is…. is it over? Can we say Bolsonaro lost? Might there still be a rain forest?
Someone on here posted yesterday that the world really ought to step in and support Brazil financially to save the Amazon. It really does matter and yes we should. We could probably do so in conjunction with a carefully managed eco-tourism. Think of the Amazon as a giant Eden Project or Serengeti and you get the idea.
p.s. Good morning!
*) There is a good chance that any monetary aid given disappears down a black hole, and the rainforest continues to be destroyed. How do you ensure it does not?
*) It is a massive area. The cost to police any operations would be truly massive.
*) As well as the size of the area, the transport network is very poor, hindering policing. This means more local police, who are easily bribed or cowed. Or increasing transport links, which then makes access for bad people easier...
*) There is not the political will to do it in Brazil. Occasional good words about it, but too many in Brazil see it as a resource to be plundered.2 -
And the dire economic situation that the country still remains in is due in good part to the actions of that Chancellor from 2020 to July 2022, and not a couple of weeks of temporary madness by Truss/Kwarteng.Heathener said:On the Truss story, the overnight front pages are the first ones to be (almost) universally damaging to Sunak's Government. From the Liz Truss story to the appalling Suella Braverman to Rishi Sunak's frankly disgraceful decision to boycott COP27 (which he might be about to U-turn on) this tory Government's sleaze is floating back to the surface like the turds in the sea that they encourage. Apologies to any of you having breakfast at this point. Their lackadaisical approach to national security would take my breath away if it any longer caused me surprise.
I was prepared to give Rishi Sunak time and grace but his Cabinet appointments revealed him to be a weak man or poor judgement: an indecisiveness which characterised his failure to take down Johnson at peak partygate, to the cost of this country.
He is also himself mired in sleaze and dodgy money.
This idea that Sunak and Truss are not joined at the hip also won't wash. They both stood by their Prime Minister Boris Johnson, one as his Chancellor of the Exchequer, the other as his Foreign Secretary.
And on thread. Labour is best ignoring Truss for that reason, downplaying her role in order to point the finger at Sunak (and his predecessors) for he economic mess.1 -
Yeah well obviously not. I mean, really, this is to state the bleedin' obvious. That's why I put 'carefully managed.'JosiasJessop said:
Just adding another, more general point: IMV mass tourism is *not* a good way to preserve pristine wildernesses. Mass tourism is inherently resource-hungry and polluting. You can have 'carefully managed' small-volume tourism (e.g. the Antarctic), but the finds raised from that would be absolutely trifling compared to the policing costs.JosiasJessop said:
It's an interesting idea, but there are massive problems with it:Heathener said:
Yes yes and yes.biggles said:Is…. is it over? Can we say Bolsonaro lost? Might there still be a rain forest?
Someone on here posted yesterday that the world really ought to step in and support Brazil financially to save the Amazon. It really does matter and yes we should. We could probably do so in conjunction with a carefully managed eco-tourism. Think of the Amazon as a giant Eden Project or Serengeti and you get the idea.
p.s. Good morning!
*) There is a good chance that any monetary aid given disappears down a black hole, and the rainforest continues to be destroyed. How do you ensure it does not?
*) It is a massive area. The cost to police any operations would be truly massive.
*) As well as the size of the area, the transport network is very poor, hindering policing. This means more local police, who are easily bribed or cowed. Or increasing transport links, which then makes access for bad people easier...
*) There is not the political will to do it in Brazil. Occasional good words about it, but too many in Brazil see it as a resource to be plundered.
The idea that we can leave this places alone is I'm afraid out with the fairies. The world just ain't that way anymore. If you don't intervene they get obliterated. Yes it's very very sad. But the fact now remains that we have to hold our noses and accept a degree of compromise in terms of visitor numbers for the greater good.
That's why, despite my liking your earlier thoughtful comments, my idea is a better one. We need to step in globally to support Brazil in protecting the Amazon. Yes yes money abroad sometimes goes astray but that doesn't mean it shouldn't happen and there are ways of mitigating against it.
And if you don't educate the planet through interaction you don't educate.
Of course, much of this, as with most things, comes down to the fact that this planet cannot support 10 billion people.0 -
And we have to 'carefully manage' and protect other places around the world, and do.
Generally speaking it's easier to police a clump of trees than it is a herd of elephants. Felling the latter takes one shot. Chopping down a forest tends to attract attention.
The basic point stands. If we want to save the Amazon it's no good simply lecturing Brazil from afar. Now that we have a pro-eco President again we need to give him our support.
And on that note, I will bid you all a good day
0 -
I agree.Wulfrun_Phil said:
And the dire economic situation that the country still remains in is due in good part to the actions of that Chancellor from 2020 to July 2022, and not a couple of weeks of temporary madness by Truss/Kwarteng.Heathener said:On the Truss story, the overnight front pages are the first ones to be (almost) universally damaging to Sunak's Government. From the Liz Truss story to the appalling Suella Braverman to Rishi Sunak's frankly disgraceful decision to boycott COP27 (which he might be about to U-turn on) this tory Government's sleaze is floating back to the surface like the turds in the sea that they encourage. Apologies to any of you having breakfast at this point. Their lackadaisical approach to national security would take my breath away if it any longer caused me surprise.
I was prepared to give Rishi Sunak time and grace but his Cabinet appointments revealed him to be a weak man or poor judgement: an indecisiveness which characterised his failure to take down Johnson at peak partygate, to the cost of this country.
He is also himself mired in sleaze and dodgy money.
This idea that Sunak and Truss are not joined at the hip also won't wash. They both stood by their Prime Minister Boris Johnson, one as his Chancellor of the Exchequer, the other as his Foreign Secretary.
And on thread. Labour is best ignoring Truss for that reason, downplaying her role in order to point the finger at Sunak (and his predecessors) for he economic mess.
The SNP, Labour, Greens and Lib Dems must set aside the Truss catastrophe and focus laser-like on Sunak’s self-inflicted mess.
The voters will *never* forget Truss. The woman is going to become legendary. All the takings are banked.
0 -
As an aside, this is probably pretty smart:
https://www.theverge.com/2022/10/30/23431931/twitter-paid-verification-elon-musk-blue-monthly-subscription
Basically, if you have a blue check mark on Twitter, and want to keep it, it's $20/month.
There are - approximately - 300,000 verified Twitter accounts.
That's $6m/month, or $72m a year. Admittedly, based on the assumption that there's 100% take up.0 -
Putting a price on egotism. I like it!rcs1000 said:As an aside, this is probably pretty smart:
https://www.theverge.com/2022/10/30/23431931/twitter-paid-verification-elon-musk-blue-monthly-subscription
Basically, if you have a blue check mark on Twitter, and want to keep it, it's $20/month.
There are - approximately - 300,000 verified Twitter accounts.
That's $6m/month, or $72m a year. Admittedly, based on the assumption that there's 100% take up.3
