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Will the Truss link be as damaging to the CON brand as Corbyn was to LAB? – politicalbetting.com
Will the Truss link be as damaging to the CON brand as Corbyn was to LAB? – politicalbetting.com
The sure way of knowing that the Tories are in serious trouble is when they they seek to associate Starmer with his predecessor Corbyn. Even Sunak got into the act at his first PMQs.
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Surely the PB experience
No, because she simply hasn't had time to bed in opinion like Corbyn had over years, and her successor can quite quickly repudiate everything she stood for. In fact, that process started before she was even gone.
Yes, because her short tenure caused such a commotion so swiftly and meaningfully that no one could ignore it, not even her party, and has likely crystallised opinion about them for years to come as it revealed the absolute mess we are in. Truss need not even be mentioned, but reference to what her time led to, and why, will still hit home hard.
Edit: pipped!
Pity it doesn't always turn out so well
https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/3099211/#Comment_3099211
OK, assuming remining in person turnout in PA matches current country proportions and Mail ballots split 78/20 in close and lean Dem counties and 68/32 in Trump heavy districts then I have Biden winning by
82,953 votes.
But, of course, that is just a rough estimate.
Actual result was Biden by 80,555
Truss however never had any significant appeal, even Tory MPs wanted Sunak and Tory members Badenoch but within a month had pursued an agenda so radical and unpopular and for which she had no mandate from the electorate that she was polling worse than the LDs did in 2005 and 2010
I have a sense that the Tories know a big defeat is coming and that the next generation are keeping their heads down, pace Wallace etc. Younger Tories who survive the cull will have a chance to reshape the party, and it’s surely needed. But will it be like Hague, IDS, Howard, or Cameron?
I would have thought that given the foreign secretary soon to be prime minister's phone was hacked that an investigation would already have taken place internally? Right???? What we'd like to know is what are the findings (so far).
If inflation continues to rise, further austerity and tax rises are required and there are strikes a Starmer government would soon become unpopular
Lula is 1.01 on Betfair.
Is the Honourable Member for Bish outing herself...
...as a Sunderland supporter?
Good riddance to the stain on humanity.
Similarly, I doubt Labour droning on about Liz Truss will help them much. It just seems a bit needy when she is no longer PM.
Lula 50.6% Bolsonaro 49.3%
https://resultados.tse.jus.br/oficial/app/index.html#/eleicao/resultados
Bloody NIMBIES everywhere!
It's certainly been a much closer election than anticipated!
You are wrong Richard, completely wrong.
The trick is not to have inept leaders, but then if you must have them to do it in opposition.
Take note US and Australia.
Paper ballots for the win
Johnson has more potential to be a Corbyn figure; toxic to many, loved by his fans and refusing to go quietly.
Starmer gave Jez the rope to hang himself then efficiently pushed him out of the party. Can Sunak be so ruthless and effective?
The acrid stench won’t be expunged by getting rid of a single figurehead like Corbyn. It’s going to take time.
But not psychotic.
So, that could be seen as fortunate and sensible Brazilians.
For example say there's a new highly effective hack that has bypassed a fully patched and managed iPhone, perhaps even the iMessage Blastdoor didn't work (which is a bit of isolated software that parses messages), you really don't want anyone else knowing any details, because the Russians may know what works, but the Chinese may not. If details come out, even indirectly, that can tip off adversaries that "hey there is a way around that protection, lets take another look at how to attack it".
The people who are qualified to assess what it is safe to say almost certainly aren't leaking anything, it's people who don't know that are going to the papers.
I imagine lots of Brazilians thought the same today.
@nicklhardwick2
What’s happening in Manston is a national disgrace. Hundred illegally detained on the whim of a politician. Women and children including from Iran sleeping on mats on the floors of tents for weeks as winter approaches. Diseases of the past rife. And now firebombs. Appalling
EDIT. Jumped the gun! 1.6% ahead!
DOUBLE EDIT. That's really it. 1.6% ahead, 1.55% left.
Next election: Denmark on Tuesday.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2022_Danish_general_election#2022
'Humorous unofficial bumper stickers were created in support of Edwards over Duke, despite Edwards' negative reputation. One bumper sticker read "Vote for the Lizard, not the Wizard", while another read "Vote For The Crook: It's Important."'
source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1991_Louisiana_gubernatorial_election
Something similar was used in the 2002 French presidential election, urging a vote for Jacques Chirac.
(Fun fact: At one of the trials in which Edwards escaped conviction, the jurors, who had been housed in a hotel, stole towels from the hotel. So, one can say that he truly had a jury of his peers.)
Just to back up your "autistic virgin" comment Horse, in my book anyone who proposes "autistic" as a sleight, or insult is a 24 carat arse. I have a dog in this race so I can't begin to explain how it p***** me off when he casually uses such a put down, claims to be an expert on ASD, and when challenged he resorts to insults like "humourless" and "snowflake".
"Eleição matematicamente definida (Eleito)"
https://especiaisg1.globo/politica/eleicoes/2022/mapas/mapa-da-apuracao-no-brasil-presidente/2-turno/
🤣
Neither are anywhere near the Amazon.
That doesn't sit easily with me.
https://twitter.com/tomwatson/status/1586743300635213829
What is already crystal clear, wether it’s him personally, or his confidants and strategists, likely all of them, they are acting MASSIVELY INSECURE. All Sunak’s unforced errors come from pandering to the right, be it dodgy back room deals with MPs (that weren’t remotely necessary were they?) bizarre right wing policy for the party at hustings now being scrapped, or whatever he thinks will please the right wing media commenteriate, like axing the Net Zero supporting MPs and distancing UK from the COP.
This psychological flaw of insecurity isn’t going anywhere, so it’s too easy to predict continued decisions pandering to the right, damagingly rowed back on leaving him lampooned as mister flip flop.
Incredible. Three Primeministers in one parliament and they have come up with another dud 🤦♀️ The flaw this time, probably predictable with hindsight, after the brass necks of the previous two greasy polers, Sunak, like the Lion in WoO lacks the courage of his own convictions. No backbone. Ironically not enough brass neck this time.
https://twitter.com/daveyalba/status/1586788146578178049?t=i6FtUcbadC2Fxo4BCV8Q1w&s=09
https://g1.globo.com/politica/eleicoes/2022/apuracao/presidente.ghtml
I rode Lula’s odds down on R1 (on the basis the polls and odds were just too far apart) then sat out R2.
My betfair account is up a couple of hundred quid, so I can’t complain.
The British are probably already trying to hack the Russian government, and for all we know succeeding. If you get breached in something you and the adversary are already constantly trying to do you don't need to respond, you just try harder to win more and lose less.
AFAIK cutting communications cables would be something that countries that aren't at war generally haven't been doing. I'm not sure what the response should be if they were doing that, it's complicated. You probably want some kind of response to deter it, while you also generally don't want to escalate. But they're not doing this western infrastructure stuff as far as I can tell. This stuff breaks all the time and you fix it. Cables get cut by anchors, power grids get taken down by squirrels.
Bolsanaro looks well set to win again in the future to me
At GE2019 “reminding voters of the Corbyn connection” was pointing out who the current party leader was, the man who would be PM if they were elected. The lead itself goes on to say that the connection became relatively insignificant once he was out of office.
Someone on here posted yesterday that the world really ought to step in and support Brazil financially to save the Amazon. It really does matter and yes we should. We could probably do so in conjunction with a carefully managed eco-tourism. Think of the Amazon as a giant Eden Project or Serengeti and you get the idea.
p.s. Good morning!
*) There is a good chance that any monetary aid given disappears down a black hole, and the rainforest continues to be destroyed. How do you ensure it does not?
*) It is a massive area. The cost to police any operations would be truly massive.
*) As well as the size of the area, the transport network is very poor, hindering policing. This means more local police, who are easily bribed or cowed. Or increasing transport links, which then makes access for bad people easier...
*) There is not the political will to do it in Brazil. Occasional good words about it, but too many in Brazil see it as a resource to be plundered.
I was prepared to give Rishi Sunak time and grace but his Cabinet appointments revealed him to be a weak man or poor judgement: an indecisiveness which characterised his failure to take down Johnson at peak partygate, to the cost of this country.
He is also himself mired in sleaze and dodgy money.
This idea that Sunak and Truss are not joined at the hip also won't wash. They both stood by their Prime Minister Boris Johnson, one as his Chancellor of the Exchequer, the other as his Foreign Secretary.