politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As Dave’s big speech begins – Rumour has it the third defec
As Cameron's big speech, rumours emerge of a 3rd MP defecting at 5pm
http://t.co/KV1CuwLK9T … pic.twitter.com/naCD1zapXY
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First!0
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Tom Bradby: His reference to a D Day vet he met possibly a safer bet than Ed M and Gareth in the park.0
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This, Ed.CarlottaVance said:Tom Bradby: His reference to a D Day vet he met possibly a safer bet than Ed M and Gareth in the park.
Do you now see how idiotic your speech was last week?
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No wealth without work?
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I can tell you one thing 100% for sure. UKIP's puerile and vindictive antics guarantee that Farage won't be in any debates. That may be what they want, of course.0
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Dave needs a new speechwriter. This is just noise.0
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The top rate of tax only affects the top 15-20% of earners.MaxPB said:Cut the basic rate to 19% and the higher rate to 39%. Policies that will win over lower paid and middle income people. Time to win the election.
Cutting it does nothing for "middle-income" people unless middle income has now been redefined to mean highest earners in the country.0 -
Puerile and vindictive? I know that the Tories havent attracted any defecting MPs recently so may not be up-to-speed about how to respond but show me which party ever has refused one?Richard_Nabavi said:I can tell you one thing 100% for sure. UKIP's puerile and vindictive antics guarantee that Farage won't be in any debates. That may be what they want, of course.
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Is it too soon to breathlessly declare the speech a triumph? (I'm not watching it so need guidance on this.)0
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Death by a thousand cuts.
Sweet irony.0 -
David Cameron: GermanyNeil said:Is it too soon to breathlessly declare the speech a triumph? (I'm not watching it so need guidance on this.)
Ed Miliband = Ireland0 -
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So that's how you'll try to spin Cameron's cowardice in debating Farage. It's a novel excuse, but I don't think it will convince many.Richard_Nabavi said:I can tell you one thing 100% for sure. UKIP's puerile and vindictive antics guarantee that Farage won't be in any debates. That may be what they want, of course.
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Mr. Neil, nothing too noteworthy (perhaps excepting reaffirming English votes for English laws).0
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Teachers, firefighters, nurses, policemen. All of these professions include a significant number of higher rate payers. There are millions of people who have been dragged in over the last 10 years helping them would go a long way to winning the election.Alistair said:
The top rate of tax only affects the top 15-20% of earners.MaxPB said:Cut the basic rate to 19% and the higher rate to 39%. Policies that will win over lower paid and middle income people. Time to win the election.
Cutting it does nothing for "middle-income" people unless middle income has now been redefined to mean highest earners in the country.0 -
I was referring to trying to disrupt the Conference. It has been a convention for decades that parties don't do that (and quite rightly so, democracy is not helped by trying to drown out any party laying out its platform for the election). Remember the flak Gordon Brown got when it looked as though he was doing so with his trip to Afghanistan?Neil said:
Puerile and vindictive? I know that the Tories havent attracted any defecting MPs recently so may not be up-to-speed about how to respond but show me which party ever has refused one?Richard_Nabavi said:I can tell you one thing 100% for sure. UKIP's puerile and vindictive antics guarantee that Farage won't be in any debates. That may be what they want, of course.
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So far I think Dave's 'D-Day Vet' has trumped Ed's 'Gareth he met in a park'......Neil said:Is it too soon to breathlessly declare the speech a triumph? (I'm not watching it so need guidance on this.)
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There is no chance of me voting for Cameron or Miliband, but if people are swayed by Conference speeches, Cameron is on a different level
Like a Dad vs a student , really I feel like a PB Tory!0 -
Remember last week when the Kippers moaned like whores about Cameron/Obama/ISIS conspiring to derail the Kipper conference.Richard_Nabavi said:
I was referring to trying to disrupt the Conference. It has been a convention for decades that parties don't do that (and quite rightly so, democracy is not helped by trying to drown out any party laying out its platform for the election). Remember the flak Gordon Brown got when it looked as though he was doing so with his trip to Afghanistan?Neil said:
Puerile and vindictive? I know that the Tories havent attracted any defecting MPs recently so may not be up-to-speed about how to respond but show me which party ever has refused one?Richard_Nabavi said:I can tell you one thing 100% for sure. UKIP's puerile and vindictive antics guarantee that Farage won't be in any debates. That may be what they want, of course.
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@TSE
Carswell has used a picture of you to illustrate his hatred of party whips
http://www.talkcarswell.com/0 -
You don't understand Neil. UKIP are supposed to unilaterally disband as a political party in the hope that the Conservatives manage to hoover up their vote so Miliband is stopped from No 10. Anything less than that is just malicious hatred for the misunderstood and unfairly treated Tories.Neil said:
Puerile and vindictive? I know that the Tories havent attracted any defecting MPs recently so may not be up-to-speed about how to respond but show me which party ever has refused one?Richard_Nabavi said:I can tell you one thing 100% for sure. UKIP's puerile and vindictive antics guarantee that Farage won't be in any debates. That may be what they want, of course.
Of course, the appalling evil of Ed as Prime Minister isn't bad enough that the Tories are willing to stand by in 5% of their seats to get an alliance with UKIP...0 -
Don't be ridiculous.Richard_Nabavi said:I can tell you one thing 100% for sure. UKIP's puerile and vindictive antics guarantee that Farage won't be in any debates. That may be what they want, of course.
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Farage's place in the debates should be determined objectively and not by whether he played nice while the Tories were in Birmingham. As it happens all these defections are removing the last main barrier to Farage being included - that they dont have any MPs.Richard_Nabavi said:
I was referring to trying to disrupt the Conference.Neil said:
Puerile and vindictive? I know that the Tories havent attracted any defecting MPs recently so may not be up-to-speed about how to respond but show me which party ever has refused one?Richard_Nabavi said:I can tell you one thing 100% for sure. UKIP's puerile and vindictive antics guarantee that Farage won't be in any debates. That may be what they want, of course.
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Reckless was unveiled at UKIPs conference.. what's the problem with that?Richard_Nabavi said:
I was referring to trying to disrupt the Conference. It has been a convention for decades that parties don't do that (and quite rightly so, democracy is not helped by trying to drown out any party laying out its platform for the election). Remember the flak Gordon Brown got when it looked as though he was doing so with his trip to Afghanistan?Neil said:
Puerile and vindictive? I know that the Tories havent attracted any defecting MPs recently so may not be up-to-speed about how to respond but show me which party ever has refused one?Richard_Nabavi said:I can tell you one thing 100% for sure. UKIP's puerile and vindictive antics guarantee that Farage won't be in any debates. That may be what they want, of course.
You Conservatives said the same about the timing of Carswells defection, its all noise, you'll say the same whenever one of your MP's sees the light.0 -
Looking at the performance so far, hate to say it but Cameron is maschine-gunning trump cards all over Ed.CarlottaVance said:
So far I think Dave's 'D-Day Vet' has trumped Ed's 'Gareth he met in a park'......Neil said:Is it too soon to breathlessly declare the speech a triumph? (I'm not watching it so need guidance on this.)
Still angry about last week.0 -
Dave's going after the soft Labour vote.0
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Did that moaning include our party leader calling any Tories "fat arse" or "dickhead"?TheScreamingEagles said:
Remember last week when the Kippers moaned like whores about Cameron/Obama/ISIS conspiring to derail the Kipper conference.Richard_Nabavi said:
I was referring to trying to disrupt the Conference. It has been a convention for decades that parties don't do that (and quite rightly so, democracy is not helped by trying to drown out any party laying out its platform for the election). Remember the flak Gordon Brown got when it looked as though he was doing so with his trip to Afghanistan?Neil said:
Puerile and vindictive? I know that the Tories havent attracted any defecting MPs recently so may not be up-to-speed about how to respond but show me which party ever has refused one?Richard_Nabavi said:I can tell you one thing 100% for sure. UKIP's puerile and vindictive antics guarantee that Farage won't be in any debates. That may be what they want, of course.
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I'm not spinning anything. I'm just giving my opinion that UKIP's vindicative behaviour will anger Cameron, and quite rightly so, and that therefore any small chance there was of Farage being in the debates is now gone. Feel free to disagree, and argue that it makes it more likely.Socrates said:
So that's how you'll try to spin Cameron's cowardice in debating Farage. It's a novel excuse, but I don't think it will convince many.Richard_Nabavi said:I can tell you one thing 100% for sure. UKIP's puerile and vindictive antics guarantee that Farage won't be in any debates. That may be what they want, of course.
The fact that you see anything posted on here as 'spinning' shows how out of touch with reality you are.0 -
There's a rabbit, wouldn't call it jumbo though.0
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UKIP will have MPs as well as a high poll score in the period when participation in any debates is decided, so his claim for involvement will be stronger.Richard_Nabavi said:I can tell you one thing 100% for sure. UKIP's puerile and vindictive antics guarantee that Farage won't be in any debates. That may be what they want, of course.
My guess is that Miliband will be glad not to be debating Cameron, Cameron will be glad not to be debating Farage, and I'm not sure whether Clegg will be desperate enough to debate Farage just to garner a bit more attention, since that didn't go so well for the European elections.
So the debates are unlikely to happen.0 -
You may be many things Ben (love you really xx), but you are certainly honest.BenM said:
Looking at the performance so far, hate to say it but Cameron is maschine-gunning trump cards all over Ed.CarlottaVance said:
So far I think Dave's 'D-Day Vet' has trumped Ed's 'Gareth he met in a park'......Neil said:Is it too soon to breathlessly declare the speech a triumph? (I'm not watching it so need guidance on this.)
Still angry about last week.0 -
Ouch - is Cameron trailing that far behind Miliband's blazing economic growth figures? (Fwiw Ireland's GDP per capita is higher than Germany's ... now if only they hadnt made us pay off their stupid bond investments we'd be fine.)TheScreamingEagles said:
David Cameron: GermanyNeil said:Is it too soon to breathlessly declare the speech a triumph? (I'm not watching it so need guidance on this.)
Ed Miliband = Ireland
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Personal allowance to rise to £12,500.
Edited, forgot the £500.0 -
Should have gone for NI. Oh wait.0
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There's your jumbo rabbit.0
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Mary Ann Seighart: That’s the Lib Dem conference buggered then.0
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Good policy. Mega jumbo rabbit right there.0
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Nonsense, Richard, the swing PB Tory vote will win or lose dozens of marginals!Richard_Nabavi said:
The fact that you see anything posted on here as 'spinning' shows how out of touch with reality you are.
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I'm talking about the football teams.Neil said:
Ouch - is Cameron trailing that far behind Miliband's blazing economic growth figures? (Fwiw Ireland's GDP per capita is higher than Germany's ... now if only they hadnt made us pay off their stupid bond investments we'd be fine.)TheScreamingEagles said:
David Cameron: GermanyNeil said:Is it too soon to breathlessly declare the speech a triumph? (I'm not watching it so need guidance on this.)
Ed Miliband = Ireland
How'd the last match in Dublin turn out?0 -
40p rate to £50,0000
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They will just empty chair anyone not turning up, so I'm pretty sure they will. Given how much Cameron demanded them last time, he can't exactly make up excuses now.OblitusSumMe said:
UKIP will have MPs as well as a high poll score in the period when participation in any debates is decided, so his claim for involvement will be stronger.Richard_Nabavi said:I can tell you one thing 100% for sure. UKIP's puerile and vindictive antics guarantee that Farage won't be in any debates. That may be what they want, of course.
My guess is that Miliband will be glad not to be debating Cameron, Cameron will be glad not to be debating Farage, and I'm not sure whether Clegg will be desperate enough to debate Farage just to garner a bit more attention, since that didn't go so well for the European elections.
So the debates are unlikely to happen.0 -
That 40% tax threshold for me is good timing!! (got a new job starting in a few weeks).0
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I await your plaudits on the 40% threshold....0 -
Possible £1800 saving for people on middle incomes. Massive policy.0
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How much is the £50k 40% threshold going to cost?
Sounds expensive0 -
The normally composed Janan Ganesh: Jesus, that hike in the 40p threshold is huge0
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You are the Poch of the tax world.Scrapheap_as_was said:
I await your plaudits on the 40% threshold....0 -
Tax cuts paid for by in work benefits freeze and massive cuts where?0
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Unless the defector's George Osborne I think the tax cuts will get the headlines.0
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Cameron's priorities in a nutshell - hardworking families struggling to get by lose hundreds a year to pay for feckless homosexuals who dont need the money to get a tax break.CarlottaVance said:40p rate to £50,000
Any details on the timeframe so we know exactly how much of the low earners' benefits are being thrown to the highest earners?0 -
Osborne and Cameron doing the classic Bad Cop/Good Cop routine. Not a bad approach.0
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Increasing the 40% threshold is hardly targeted on C2s, though, so we see that I was write to criticise that as spin.MaxPB said:Possible £1800 saving for people on middle incomes. Massive policy.
Also, median earnings are a lot lower than the current 40% threshold, so moving that around has no impact on people on "middle incomes". It's a tax cut for the richest decile or two in society.0 -
Childishly petulant and capable of bearing a grudge as I have no doubt Cameron is, the contention that he will take a tactical decision based solely on smouldering resentment that a defection overshadowed his party conference months beforehand is utterly ridiculous. Cameron, in conjunction with Crosby, Osborne and whoever else, will decide what line he wants to push on the leaders debates based on where he thinks the advantage lies, and what he feels he can get away with, nothing more. To imagine otherwise is to do him a disservice.Richard_Nabavi said:
I'm not spinning anything. I'm just giving my opinion that UKIP's vindicative behaviour will anger Cameron, and quite rightly so, and that therefore any small chance there was of Farage being in the debates is now gone. Feel free to disagree, and argue that it makes it more likely.Socrates said:
So that's how you'll try to spin Cameron's cowardice in debating Farage. It's a novel excuse, but I don't think it will convince many.Richard_Nabavi said:I can tell you one thing 100% for sure. UKIP's puerile and vindictive antics guarantee that Farage won't be in any debates. That may be what they want, of course.
The fact that you see anything posted on here as 'spinning' shows how out of touch with reality you are.
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I salute your indefatigability. - Take a bow, Sir. ; )Scrapheap_as_was said:
I await your plaudits on the 40% threshold....0 -
Good to see 40p coming in at £50k which will make me a lot better off.
Hope the child benefit tax charge threshold is moved up to in tandem.
Nice tax cut. The end of any nonsense about the Tories targetting the deficit.
Will cost an absolute fortune.
And so I rest my case Antifrank.
QED.0 -
These tax changes that Cameron promises are gradual, with them being reached by 2020. They seem pretty fair to me and I cannot see why Labour plus the Lib Dems would not match these.
It is always easier for current PM's/chancellors to make announcements as they have full access to the Treasury. Opposition parties don't gain access normally until the election is called.0 -
Loads of new houses for first time buyers subsidised by 20% of market value by the taxpayer.
Wow lower taxes and extra commitments out of taxpayer.
Planet Tory0 -
So you're arguing that Cameron is petulant enough that he will change what he thinks is the right strategic choice because that nasty Nigel has been mean to him? I see.Richard_Nabavi said:
I'm not spinning anything. I'm just giving my opinion that UKIP's vindicative behaviour will anger Cameron, and quite rightly so, and that therefore any small chance there was of Farage being in the debates is now gone. Feel free to disagree, and argue that it makes it more likely.Socrates said:
So that's how you'll try to spin Cameron's cowardice in debating Farage. It's a novel excuse, but I don't think it will convince many.Richard_Nabavi said:I can tell you one thing 100% for sure. UKIP's puerile and vindictive antics guarantee that Farage won't be in any debates. That may be what they want, of course.
The fact that you see anything posted on here as 'spinning' shows how out of touch with reality you are.0 -
He's said he's going to increase it overnight? I really, really doubt that's the case. If the aspiration is to get it there by the end of the next Parliament, for example, then the cost is much lower and the savings likewise.RodCrosby said:
It's £400 for everyone (£2k * 20%) and £2000 for higher earners (£2k * 20% + £8k * 20%).MaxPB said:Possible £1800 saving for people on middle incomes. Massive policy.
Ish?
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A wonderfully snooty comment by Andrew Sparrow in his Guardian live blog:
And lifting the 40p threshold significantly is something that will appeal enormously to what the Daily Telegraph and the Daily Mail call the middle class.
Of course no Guardian journalist would regard a salary as low as £50K as being the 'middle'.0 -
Angry Salmond @AngrySalmond 1m1 minute ago
Imagine having a political party that's so awful people leave it to join UKIP. #CPC140 -
Bored with Riot Club already?bigjohnowls said:Loads of new houses for first time buyers subsidised by 20% of market value by the taxpayer.
Wow lower taxes and extra commitments out of taxpayer.
Planet Tory0 -
Is that growing rumbling the sound of a herd of formerly disillusioned now ex-UKIP voters heading back to the Conservative fold?0
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Yes, although I wouldn't put it quite like that.Socrates said:So you're arguing that Cameron is petulant enough that he will change what he thinks is the right strategic choice because that nasty Nigel has been mean to him? I see.
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Did he just say who we "resent". I'm sure he did.0
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The Tories are gambling on a sustained recovery with tax income from increased employment, retail/business spending and stamp duty. If the economy slows down again, they would struggle to meet the promises made.bigjohnowls said:Loads of new houses for first time buyers subsidised by 20% of market value by the taxpayer.
Wow lower taxes and extra commitments out of taxpayer.
Planet Tory
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It's curious that he cut income tax rather than national insurance...0
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Yep.....'represent' bit of a mouthful in a mini climax...unfortunate slip of the tongue.....MaxPB said:Did he just say who we "resent". I'm sure he did.
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It isn't middle is it? That's more like £27K. Not saying it is or is not a bad policy but it does benefit only the top 10% to 15% of earners.Richard_Nabavi said:A wonderfully snooty comment by Andrew Sparrow in his Guardian live blog:
And lifting the 40p threshold significantly is something that will appeal enormously to what the Daily Telegraph and the Daily Mail call the middle class.
Of course no Guardian journalist would regard a salary as low as £50K as being the 'middle'.0 -
Ed floor wiped.0
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As Andrew Neil said beforehand, people believe that NI pays for the NHS when it is just any other tax. There is not enough time to have that debate and educate voters that cutting NI doesn't mean cutting NHS funding.Socrates said:It's curious that he cut income tax rather than national insurance...
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The upper end for classroom teachers is £37,000 ish, you can creep over £40,000 if you are top level and are teaching in central London. Head teachers will be happily going into 40% rate territory but no-one would class a a manager of a multi-million pound business as a "middle earner" surely?MaxPB said:
TeachersAlistair said:
The top rate of tax only affects the top 15-20% of earners.MaxPB said:Cut the basic rate to 19% and the higher rate to 39%. Policies that will win over lower paid and middle income people. Time to win the election.
Cutting it does nothing for "middle-income" people unless middle income has now been redefined to mean highest earners in the country.
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There's none so blind as will not see.___Bobajob___ said:Good to see 40p coming in at £50k which will make me a lot better off.
Hope the child benefit tax charge threshold is moved up to in tandem.
Nice tax cut. The end of any nonsense about the Tories targetting the deficit.
Will cost an absolute fortune.
And so I rest my case Antifrank.
QED.0 -
I doubt it.BenM said:Is that growing rumbling the sound of a herd of formerly disillusioned now ex-UKIP voters heading back to the Conservative fold?
Not unless Cameron offered to expel all dem foreigners.-1 -
I'm sure that's the case - as with the personal allowance - in fairness they can point to their promise/record on that in this parliament.....Neil said:
If the aspiration is to get it there by the end of the next Parliament, for example, then the cost is much lower and the savings likewise.RodCrosby said:
It's £400 for everyone (£2k * 20%) and £2000 for higher earners (£2k * 20% + £8k * 20%).MaxPB said:Possible £1800 saving for people on middle incomes. Massive policy.
Ish?
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Can I point out, and probably not for the last time, that the 40p threshold rise is the policy I said a few weeks ago would be the only one that could save the Tories.
That one's a freebie, Dave, next time I'll expect a cheque0 -
I said Cameron would go emotional for this speech. I'm pleased. I hope this will shore the Conservatives up where UKIP have no chance. Could also significantly improve their chances in Scotland?
'Is that growing rumbling the sound of a herd of formerly disillusioned now ex-UKIP voters heading back to the Conservative fold?'
However this is fantasy.0 -
It is not often that tears come during a political speech - but Cameron was genuinely moving then. His comments on the NHS and his personal experience were very powerful0
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Sam Cam in tears?0
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I can see an opening for UKIP on this, they could say:
"The government is forced to adopted UKIP policies, because people vote UKIP, the more people vote for UKIP, the more of what they want becomes government policy. Taxes, hospitals, the EU, what UKIP says in the end the government is forced to do it"0 -
The overarching theme (Osborne + Cameron) is letting people keep more of their own money, rather than taking it away from them and then giving some of it back with in-work benefits. Sound Conservative stuff.BenM said:It isn't middle is it? That's more like £27K. Not saying it is or is not a bad policy but it does benefit only the top 10% to 15% of earners.
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Got to say, not a fan of the emotional stuff (in general). Also think slagging off the opposition should be kept light, and not overdone.0
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Why does Cam resent hard-working people? Eh?0
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I thought Cameron just cut Ed some slack - he mocked Ed Miliband for forgetting to mention the deficit in his speech. - then joked about how he once forgot his daughter down the pub.john_zims said:Ed floor wiped.
It sounded quite funny. ; )0 -
Yes Sam looked close to tears.oxfordsimon said:It is not often that tears come during a political speech - but Cameron was genuinely moving then. His comments on the NHS and his personal experience were very powerful
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Paul Waugh @paulwaugh 14s14 seconds ago
Cameron in tears as he says "how dare" Labour suggest he'd put NHS at risk, given his own son Ivan's experience.
Date night next?0 -
From a not uncritical friend - Lord Ashcroft: Cameron doing well today...touching all the issues....and attempting to set the battle lines...Miliband will have to respond....0
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No VAT cut on vacuum cleaners ? Kippers wont be happy. ..0
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He could have just "merged" them, rather than cutting.MaxPB said:
As Andrew Neil said beforehand, people believe that NI pays for the NHS when it is just any other tax. There is not enough time to have that debate and educate voters that cutting NI doesn't mean cutting NHS funding.Socrates said:It's curious that he cut income tax rather than national insurance...
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Cameron impressive so far in my opinion.
Targeting those who pull their socks up and want a better life with some good policies.
He looks passionate too. UKIP have pissed him off. Cameron with his back to the wall is a force to be reckoned with.0 -
Important for Cameron to get across the link between economic success and the NHS. If he gets that across, it'd be a major win. If not, Labour can make hay with healthcare (ahem).0
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I did shed a few - it was something very rare in politics. Genuine passion.jayfdee said:
Yes Sam looked close to tears.oxfordsimon said:It is not often that tears come during a political speech - but Cameron was genuinely moving then. His comments on the NHS and his personal experience were very powerful
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Antifrank
LOL. Indeed.
You went for deficit reduction.
The Tories went for a gigantic tax cut.
Blind indeed.0 -
Here comes the UKIP bit0
