A Tribute Act – politicalbetting.com

Foxy said:

Jonathan said:

Leon said:

Jonathan said:

Leon said:

Cyclefree said:

Leon said:

ping said:

Leon said:

Brevity, @Cyclefree, brevity

I disagree.

The in-depth analysis is one of the things that sets this place apart. The tldr; idiots can go elsewhere.

There is a time and place for indepth analysis. When she's on form @Cyclefree does it really well (and, as I am well aware, for free)

Not this time tho. This is an awful lots of words to say Truss is, so far, a 2nd rate Thatch. We can all see that

It's not just that she's a 2nd rate Thatch. It's that the party seems to think that only a copy of a previous leader will do. See Boris doing his Churchill tribute act.

Why can't they be themselves - a leader for the country now? Learn lessons from others: yes. But understand today's world and problems and come up with ideas for today.

Nostalgia: it's the British disease and it infects our politics.

(And also thank you for the compliment and the advice. Genuinely.)

See, that's an interesting and worthwhile thesis you have there. Yet I didn't get that from the header as my eyes glazed over at all the paragraphs and "bullet points" especially when there is much to distract, of a turbulent Sunday evening

Sometimes the more you say, the less you relay

You could have made this valid argument with 400 words, not 2000

Modern politics is a three way battle between future-looking progressives (Blair, Starmer, Brown), steady as we go conservatives (Cameron, May, Hague)and romantic backward looking nostalgists (Farage, Truss, Johnson, Corbyn).

That is just laughably wrong

Nah. It’s right.

The biggest driving force in recent years has been the nostalgists of the left and right, all trying to turn the clock back to their preferred utopian view of the past. They have largely been in battle with the conservatives. We are only just beginning to see some new ideas creep in again as progressive forces gain strength..

I agree that both left and right have been obsessed with nostalgia for a romanticised past, but I don't think that the centre-left has a coherent narrative. Truss is barking but does have a vision, albeit one of a crazy oligarchy in charge of impoverished serfs.

Benpointer said:

Leon said:

Democracy is to the British what Food is to the French or Opera to the Italians

We don't actually do it that well anymore, and we haven't innovated for 50 years, and often others do it better: yet we pride ourselves in it, because we believe it is ours. And we will fight for that, even if it makes us poorer

Hence, Brexit

This is a fun game.

How about: France - cuisine; Italy - opera; Britain - team sports?

Or: France - fashion; Italy - art; Britain - er, mountaineering?

Or: Germany - classical music; Greece - civilisation; Britain - queues?

AlistairM said:

Malmesbury said:

Foxy said:

PeterM said:

Yokes said:

LostPassword said:

Yokes said:

Leon said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

TheKitchenCabinet said:

Looks like Russian lines to the north east of Kherson may be collapsing

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1576602192990961664

Oh dear. How sad. Nevermind.

We could be close to the outright defeat of Russia in Ukraine. They are now rapidly retreating in the east and the south

Which means we are potentially close to the point where Putin goes totally postal. Or not

As they say: Brace

LostPassword said:

Yokes said:

Ukraine

There are unconfirmed reports of a collapse of Russian lines to the North East of Kherson as a Ukrainian offensive pushes down the west bank of the Dneiper river. If so its currently a tenuous position for the Ukrainians as they appear to be most rapidly moving down the right flank of a concentration of Russian troops, ahead of the advancement further west. The bad news for the Russians is that it threatens yet another danger, if not quite of encirclement right now, of a hammer and anvil situation.

On Lyman, no one knows how many Russians got trapped, how many escaped and how many died trying to get out but there is visual evidence suggesting hundreds got killed trying to escape.

Ukraine seem to be making gains inland of the initial gains on the riverbank.

https://mobile.twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1576636571658649605

Khreshchenivka🇺🇦

https://maps.app.goo.gl/1m54VQWaH9r4xHhE8

On Lyman, Ukraine claimed 500 Russian casualties two days in a row. Given some reports I thought the figure reported today could have been 1,000.

The strories from Lyman are that it was in infamous turkey shoot territory.

The North east advance is, if reports are true, looking a bit lopsided. That could just be reporting catching up, but its imperative that Ukrainian forces can avoid the Russians turning to face right to isolate that lopsidedness. Thats possible since the latter appears to be in reverse right now, but its not a banker.

Two notes: 1. The Russan Airforce continues to not perform. 2. Russian artillery appears to have lost its edge, possibly because lots of it has been destroyed, possibly because their logistics chain has been really rumbled by depth strikes. Many weeks ago I ventured that this was an interesting comparison between the Russians who were very much direct fire on front line and the Ukrainians who were going for indirect and destruction behind the front.

So far one winner.

The most concerning thing though, if you are on the Russian side, is precisely no sizeable counter offensive anywhere, either directly to counter the recent advance or to divert/exploit a thin Ukrainian line somewhere. Its a really bad sign if they cant get something together.

The Russians have continued to waste men and resources on fruitless attacks towards Bakhmut, rather than divert those forces to attempt a counteroffensive against recent Ukrainian advances. (Edit: This indicates a strategic failure at the top.)

That said there is evidence in recent weeks of some Ukrainian advances defeated at some cost, towards Davydiv Brid and Pisky, so there are still Russian soldiers able and willing to fight and inflict losses on Ukraine.

Its war, the Ukrainians will lose locally but right now they are winning strategically. Russia appears to have lost the ability right now to conduct large scale and wide offensives which seems absolutely nuts but there it is. Some of that is the sheer damage done to their first line manpower and kit, some if its poor troops, some of it is that the Ukrainians have much superior battlespace management which is one of the hidden stories of this war. I cant see that Russian inability lasting forever but the short term window to put the brakes on Ukraine is closing.

The reality is that Ukrainian successes are serious and substantial but i have cautioned before against assuming its all over, its not. Until the Ukrainians can roll the Russians out, with the exception of Crimea, (which even the Ukrainians admit may be a sepcial case) its not over.

Also the time for big offensives may be coming to an end as we enter mud season. So a stalemate may develop

A big problem for the Russian logistics when there trucks can only do the paved roads.

I think though that the mud season is more of an issue in the Donbas compared to the drier, Sandler Kherson soils.

The Ukrainians have modern military trucks, it seems. With good capacity for what the US military used to call “flotation”.

The Russians seem to be running out of shit truck with crappy tires….

I think the Russians will have more to fear from when the muddy season switches to the frozen season. How many of their troops are equipped with winter gear? From videos I saw from the Kharkiv front they were sleeping under plastic sheets hung from trees.

Leon said:

ping said:

https://www.ft.com/content/510948e9-3c33-42c5-929e-b97c953dc767

Thanks to whoever linked to Martin Wolf’s FT piece^

The 40 year chart of 10yr Uk govt bond yields is quite something to behold.

Fucking scary, actually.

Unless the new trend reverses, It’s going to have a profound impact on our politics.

Whoever is in government is going to be constrained by balanced budgets.

Juvenile and meaningless journalism





"This is why systematic tax reform would be desirable. There must also be difficult deregulation, notably of land use. The state must supply first-class public goods, in the understanding that these are a social benefit, not a cost. There must be fiscal and monetary stability. There must be far higher investment in physical and human capital, both public and private. There must be higher savings. There must be a pro-growth regional policy. There must be an internationally open economy. There must, not least, be stable and credible policies, not the constant risk of another trade war with our closest neighbours."

It is no better than Putin's generalship

THERE MUST BE ADVANCES. THERE MUST BE VICTORIES. THERE MUST BE A RUSSIAN UKRAINE, THERE MUST, THERE MUST, THERE MUST

How you gonna do it, you fat fucking FT twat?

Leon said:

ping said:

https://www.ft.com/content/510948e9-3c33-42c5-929e-b97c953dc767

Thanks to whoever linked to Martin Wolf’s FT piece^

The 40 year chart of 10yr Uk govt bond yields is quite something to behold.

Fucking scary, actually.

Unless the new trend reverses, It’s going to have a profound impact on our politics.

Whoever is in government is going to be constrained by balanced budgets.

Juvenile and meaningless journalism





"This is why systematic tax reform would be desirable. There must also be difficult deregulation, notably of land use. The state must supply first-class public goods, in the understanding that these are a social benefit, not a cost. There must be fiscal and monetary stability. There must be far higher investment in physical and human capital, both public and private. There must be higher savings. There must be a pro-growth regional policy. There must be an internationally open economy. There must, not least, be stable and credible policies, not the constant risk of another trade war with our closest neighbours."

It is no better than Putin's generalship

THERE MUST BE ADVANCES. THERE MUST BE VICTORIES. THERE MUST BE A RUSSIAN UKRAINE, THERE MUST, THERE MUST, THERE MUST

How you gonna do it, you fat fucking FT twat?

Andy_JS said:

This article is form 14th August:

"Drought in England could carry on into new year, experts warn
Without lots of heavy rain in autumn and winter, water restrictions could be tightened even further"

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/aug/14/drought-in-england-could-carry-on-into-new-year-experts-warn

Does anyone know whether the drought is over now?

DoubleCarpet said:

MoonRabbit said:

DoubleCarpet said:

seções apuradas: 457 de 472075

Lula 51.15%

Bolsonaro 36.77%

After 6 mins of counting - think that is the quickest results I have seen anywhere ever.

Almost as if It’s electronic.

It is!

https://g1.globo.com/politica/eleicoes/2022/apuracao/president

0.54% counted, Bolsonaro leads 48-41

Betfair Lula 1.51 Bolsonaro 2.94

PeterM said:

Sean_F said:

kyf_100 said:

pigeon said:

Yokes said:

Jonathan said:

If Putin is close to defeat, is now the time to offer him something if we think he might go postal planet killer?

Not sure what. I guess that’s the trouble.

No, because the odds on him going nuclear are still fairly long. 1. People within his own coterie will seek to stop him and 2. I believe the US when they have said they will do a very large retaliation, which will, in effect end Russias ability to win this. And if they lose, Putin is likely done anyway.

In short even if he did, if the West sticks to that stance, Putin is finished

FWIW, a report in the Graun quotes General Petraeus (the ex-CIA director and senior American general) suggesting that NATO would respond to the use of tactical nuclear weapons by wiping out the Russian occupation forces in Ukraine and sinking the Black Sea fleet.

Besides which, a resort to nuclear weapons is the one atrocity so grave that the United States could use it as a wedge to separate China and India from Putin. In particular, if I were in Biden's place I'd be having conversations with Xi in such circumstances along the lines of (a) trade with Russia or trade with us, you can't have both; and then, if that doesn't force him to drop Putin like a red hot stove, (b) you back this shit using nuclear weapons to wage a war of conquest, and we'll both recognise Taiwanese independence and extend our own nuclear umbrella over the island. You will never, ever get it back.

Putin knows that there are a few lines he can't cross without triggering total economic isolation and the consequent collapse of the Russian economy, and so will all his cronies. If he wants to survive defeat then his best option isn't to resort to the indiscriminate use of WMDs, it's to draw up a long list of internal enemies on whom to blame the Russian army's failures and have them all arrested and tried for treason. Evidence of corruption on the part of almost every soldier above the rank of corporal shouldn't be hard to find for starters.

The Russians using even a single battlefield nuke will trigger mass panic in the west. Shelves cleared of tinned food, fighting in the aisles over the last roll of andrex. The markets will shit themselves. Like what happened last week - cascading margin calls - only much, much worse, and it will be much harder (and costlier) for the government to step in to stabilise things.

Meanwhile, a conventional reply by NATO forces - wiping out Russian positions in Ukraine, Black Sea Fleet, etc, could potentially lead to a deadly escalation. It could, for example, make ordinary Russian soldiers in the chain of command more likely to agree to an order from Putin to use strategic nukes, as they feel as if they are responding to NATO aggression. It could also lead to a deadly miscalculation - Russian radar sees a dozen conventional missiles approaching, mistakes them for a nuclear first strike, responds in kind.

"Strange game. The only winning move is not to play." That is the rational answer. The question is, is Putin rational? The other questions are: would his orders be followed, and what state is the Russian nuclear arsenal in? Questions I don't particularly want to find out the answers to. All I know is, this has the potential to escalate from here, very fast.

The events of the past seven months have demonstrated that Western peoples are not pathetic cowards who will let the Russians roll over Ukraine for fear of their living standards being adversely affected.

Putin is fucked, and there is nothing he can do about it now.

Well with the energy bailout most peoples living standards arent been adversely affected yet
So what does putin do
If he is losing or seen to lose he will be out of power or possibly dead
So in a losing situation what does he do
He needs a gamechanger a tactical nuke or chemical weapons
Obviously this risks massive western retaliation but he may calculate if the west fears a strategic nuclear response they may go easy
A difficult one

geoffw said:

Benpointer said:

Leon said:

Democracy is to the British what Food is to the French or Opera to the Italians

We don't actually do it that well anymore, and we haven't innovated for 50 years, and often others do it better: yet we pride ourselves in it, because we believe it is ours. And we will fight for that, even if it makes us poorer

Hence, Brexit

This is a fun game.

How about: France - cuisine; Italy - opera; Britain - team sports?

Or: France - fashion; Italy - art; Britain - er, mountaineering?

Or: Germany - classical music; Greece - civilisation; Britain - queues?

If you speak Italian to your sweetheart, French to your mistress, English to your servant and German to your dog, to whom do you speak Russian?

Andy_JS said:

This article is form 14th August:

"Drought in England could carry on into new year, experts warn
Without lots of heavy rain in autumn and winter, water restrictions could be tightened even further"

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/aug/14/drought-in-england-could-carry-on-into-new-year-experts-warn

Does anyone know whether the drought is over now?

MarqueeMark said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Ben Wallace not ruling out standing as leader/ PM

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/10/02/ben-wallace-wont-rule-standing-tory-leadership-future/

I think the expression is

BOOOOOOOOOOOOM!

IanB2 said:

There's no drought any more in Philadelphia, I can assure you! The remnants of my namesake are delivering days of rain

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

turbotubbs said:

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

turbotubbs said:

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

Foxy said:

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

1970 wasn't a landslide? Only 30 seat majority?

Yes but a rarity where a party lost a working majority to another party with a working majority. That doesn't often happen here.

I asked specifically about landslide to landslide.

Are you aware of Wikipedia?

Well I was trying to have a conversation, feel free to not take part.

No, you are getting over excited again. Take a dried frog pill and chill out.

I was talking to my flat mate about electoral history and I said I'd ask here. No need to be a twat mate.

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

Foxy said:

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

1970 wasn't a landslide? Only 30 seat majority?

Yes but a rarity where a party lost a working majority to another party with a working majority. That doesn't often happen here.

I asked specifically about landslide to landslide.

Andy_JS said:

This article is form 14th August:

"Drought in England could carry on into new year, experts warn
Without lots of heavy rain in autumn and winter, water restrictions could be tightened even further"

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/aug/14/drought-in-england-could-carry-on-into-new-year-experts-warn

Does anyone know whether the drought is over now?

ping said:

Andy_JS said:

This article is form 14th August:

"Drought in England could carry on into new year, experts warn
Without lots of heavy rain in autumn and winter, water restrictions could be tightened even further"

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/aug/14/drought-in-england-could-carry-on-into-new-year-experts-warn

Does anyone know whether the drought is over now?

My local reservoir is looking rather pathetic and remains at its lowest level for years.

Still very much in drought, here.

ping said:

Andy_JS said:

This article is form 14th August:

"Drought in England could carry on into new year, experts warn
Without lots of heavy rain in autumn and winter, water restrictions could be tightened even further"

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/aug/14/drought-in-england-could-carry-on-into-new-year-experts-warn

Does anyone know whether the drought is over now?

My local reservoir is looking rather pathetic and remains at its lowest level for years.

Still very much in drought, here.

Sean_F said:

Leon said:

ping said:

https://www.ft.com/content/510948e9-3c33-42c5-929e-b97c953dc767

Thanks to whoever linked to Martin Wolf’s FT piece^

The 40 year chart of 10yr Uk govt bond yields is quite something to behold.

Fucking scary, actually.

Unless the new trend reverses, It’s going to have a profound impact on our politics.

Whoever is in government is going to be constrained by balanced budgets.

Juvenile and meaningless journalism





"This is why systematic tax reform would be desirable. There must also be difficult deregulation, notably of land use. The state must supply first-class public goods, in the understanding that these are a social benefit, not a cost. There must be fiscal and monetary stability. There must be far higher investment in physical and human capital, both public and private. There must be higher savings. There must be a pro-growth regional policy. There must be an internationally open economy. There must, not least, be stable and credible policies, not the constant risk of another trade war with our closest neighbours."

It is no better than Putin's generalship

THERE MUST BE ADVANCES. THERE MUST BE VICTORIES. THERE MUST BE A RUSSIAN UKRAINE, THERE MUST, THERE MUST, THERE MUST

How you gonna do it, you fat fucking FT twat?

It's all motherhood and apple pie. Who, right or left wing, would disagree with that?

MoonRabbit said:

ping said:

Lula 1.57
Bols 2.72

Is it beginning to look like the strangely confident Bolsonaro camp may have pulled off a shock win? 😕

Leon said:

Benpointer said:

Leon said:

ping said:

https://www.ft.com/content/510948e9-3c33-42c5-929e-b97c953dc767

Thanks to whoever linked to Martin Wolf’s FT piece^

The 40 year chart of 10yr Uk govt bond yields is quite something to behold.

Fucking scary, actually.

Unless the new trend reverses, It’s going to have a profound impact on our politics.

Whoever is in government is going to be constrained by balanced budgets.

Juvenile and meaningless journalism





"This is why systematic tax reform would be desirable. There must also be difficult deregulation, notably of land use. The state must supply first-class public goods, in the understanding that these are a social benefit, not a cost. There must be fiscal and monetary stability. There must be far higher investment in physical and human capital, both public and private. There must be higher savings. There must be a pro-growth regional policy. There must be an internationally open economy. There must, not least, be stable and credible policies, not the constant risk of another trade war with our closest neighbours."

It is no better than Putin's generalship

THERE MUST BE ADVANCES. THERE MUST BE VICTORIES. THERE MUST BE A RUSSIAN UKRAINE, THERE MUST, THERE MUST, THERE MUST

How you gonna do it, you fat fucking FT twat?

You know he's right though, don't you.

He is literally saying WE MUST HAVE GRAVITY OR WE WILL FLOAT AWAY INTO SPACE

Only a fucking dimwit spit-roasted by stupidity would think this is incisive, or enlightening, or impressive journalism

Actual cretins enjoy this shit, they are welcome to it

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

turbotubbs said:

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

turbotubbs said:

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

turbotubbs said:

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

Foxy said:

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

1970 wasn't a landslide? Only 30 seat majority?

Yes but a rarity where a party lost a working majority to another party with a working majority. That doesn't often happen here.

I asked specifically about landslide to landslide.

Are you aware of Wikipedia?

Well I was trying to have a conversation, feel free to not take part.

No, you are getting over excited again. Take a dried frog pill and chill out.

I was talking to my flat mate about electoral history and I said I'd ask here. No need to be a twat mate.

Fair enough. Your recent posts suggest otherwise.

So you’re calling me a liar? Well fuck off then you twat

ping said:

MoonRabbit said:

ping said:

Lula 1.57
Bols 2.72

Is it beginning to look like the strangely confident Bolsonaro camp may have pulled off a shock win? 😕

I think the polls are broadly right and the betting markets, wrong.

But we’ll soon find out if in fact it is me that is the idiot.

Leon said:

Benpointer said:

Leon said:

ping said:

https://www.ft.com/content/510948e9-3c33-42c5-929e-b97c953dc767

Thanks to whoever linked to Martin Wolf’s FT piece^

The 40 year chart of 10yr Uk govt bond yields is quite something to behold.

Fucking scary, actually.

Unless the new trend reverses, It’s going to have a profound impact on our politics.

Whoever is in government is going to be constrained by balanced budgets.

Juvenile and meaningless journalism





"This is why systematic tax reform would be desirable. There must also be difficult deregulation, notably of land use. The state must supply first-class public goods, in the understanding that these are a social benefit, not a cost. There must be fiscal and monetary stability. There must be far higher investment in physical and human capital, both public and private. There must be higher savings. There must be a pro-growth regional policy. There must be an internationally open economy. There must, not least, be stable and credible policies, not the constant risk of another trade war with our closest neighbours."

It is no better than Putin's generalship

THERE MUST BE ADVANCES. THERE MUST BE VICTORIES. THERE MUST BE A RUSSIAN UKRAINE, THERE MUST, THERE MUST, THERE MUST

How you gonna do it, you fat fucking FT twat?

You know he's right though, don't you.

He is literally saying WE MUST HAVE GRAVITY OR WE WILL FLOAT AWAY INTO SPACE

Only a fucking dimwit spit-roasted by stupidity would think this is incisive, or enlightening, or impressive journalism

Actual cretins enjoy this shit, they are welcome to it

PeterM said:

Sean_F said:

kyf_100 said:

pigeon said:

Yokes said:

Jonathan said:

If Putin is close to defeat, is now the time to offer him something if we think he might go postal planet killer?

Not sure what. I guess that’s the trouble.

No, because the odds on him going nuclear are still fairly long. 1. People within his own coterie will seek to stop him and 2. I believe the US when they have said they will do a very large retaliation, which will, in effect end Russias ability to win this. And if they lose, Putin is likely done anyway.

In short even if he did, if the West sticks to that stance, Putin is finished

FWIW, a report in the Graun quotes General Petraeus (the ex-CIA director and senior American general) suggesting that NATO would respond to the use of tactical nuclear weapons by wiping out the Russian occupation forces in Ukraine and sinking the Black Sea fleet.

Besides which, a resort to nuclear weapons is the one atrocity so grave that the United States could use it as a wedge to separate China and India from Putin. In particular, if I were in Biden's place I'd be having conversations with Xi in such circumstances along the lines of (a) trade with Russia or trade with us, you can't have both; and then, if that doesn't force him to drop Putin like a red hot stove, (b) you back this shit using nuclear weapons to wage a war of conquest, and we'll both recognise Taiwanese independence and extend our own nuclear umbrella over the island. You will never, ever get it back.

Putin knows that there are a few lines he can't cross without triggering total economic isolation and the consequent collapse of the Russian economy, and so will all his cronies. If he wants to survive defeat then his best option isn't to resort to the indiscriminate use of WMDs, it's to draw up a long list of internal enemies on whom to blame the Russian army's failures and have them all arrested and tried for treason. Evidence of corruption on the part of almost every soldier above the rank of corporal shouldn't be hard to find for starters.

The Russians using even a single battlefield nuke will trigger mass panic in the west. Shelves cleared of tinned food, fighting in the aisles over the last roll of andrex. The markets will shit themselves. Like what happened last week - cascading margin calls - only much, much worse, and it will be much harder (and costlier) for the government to step in to stabilise things.

Meanwhile, a conventional reply by NATO forces - wiping out Russian positions in Ukraine, Black Sea Fleet, etc, could potentially lead to a deadly escalation. It could, for example, make ordinary Russian soldiers in the chain of command more likely to agree to an order from Putin to use strategic nukes, as they feel as if they are responding to NATO aggression. It could also lead to a deadly miscalculation - Russian radar sees a dozen conventional missiles approaching, mistakes them for a nuclear first strike, responds in kind.

"Strange game. The only winning move is not to play." That is the rational answer. The question is, is Putin rational? The other questions are: would his orders be followed, and what state is the Russian nuclear arsenal in? Questions I don't particularly want to find out the answers to. All I know is, this has the potential to escalate from here, very fast.

The events of the past seven months have demonstrated that Western peoples are not pathetic cowards who will let the Russians roll over Ukraine for fear of their living standards being adversely affected.

Putin is fucked, and there is nothing he can do about it now.

Well with the energy bailout most peoples living standards arent been adversely affected yet
So what does putin do
If he is losing or seen to lose he will be out of power or possibly dead
So in a losing situation what does he do
He needs a gamechanger a tactical nuke or chemical weapons
Obviously this risks massive western retaliation but he may calculate if the west fears a strategic nuclear response they may go easy
A difficult one

AlistairM said:

PeterM said:

Unhinged calls in red square for a holy war against the west

https://twitter.com/KonstantinKisin/status/1576126809993011205?s=20&t=RDtymYG8NEJz0ZNBhh8Tag

Why do all these nutcases have outfits that look like what a Nazi would wear? I suppose if it looks like a duck and sounds like a duck...

rottenborough said:

"It's your fault."
"No fucking way, it is your fault,"
"Bollocks it is,"

TimS said:

ping said:

MoonRabbit said:

ping said:

Lula 1.57
Bols 2.72

Is it beginning to look like the strangely confident Bolsonaro camp may have pulled off a shock win? 😕

I think the polls are broadly right and the betting markets, wrong.

But we’ll soon find out if in fact it is me that is the idiot.

Seems to be a similar dynamic to the US where the rural right wing votes come in first. Opposite to Britain.

Of course that gives Bolsonaro the opportunity to create an arc of hope then betrayal, setting up his followers perfectly for a Jan 6th style coup attempt.

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

turbotubbs said:

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

turbotubbs said:

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

turbotubbs said:

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

turbotubbs said:

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

Foxy said:

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

1970 wasn't a landslide? Only 30 seat majority?

Yes but a rarity where a party lost a working majority to another party with a working majority. That doesn't often happen here.

I asked specifically about landslide to landslide.

Are you aware of Wikipedia?

Well I was trying to have a conversation, feel free to not take part.

No, you are getting over excited again. Take a dried frog pill and chill out.

I was talking to my flat mate about electoral history and I said I'd ask here. No need to be a twat mate.

Fair enough. Your recent posts suggest otherwise.

So you’re calling me a liar? Well fuck off then you twat

Calm down. You post endlessly about 20% leads etc, and then go on and on about hot great Starmer is. Fine. That’s not having a conversation. I’m not calling you a liar. I accept what you said is what happened. Why do you do this? You don’t need to pick fights on obscure blogs. I hope things are ok with you right now, genuinely.

I asked a legitimate question and you just threw it back in my face. Just fuck off, ok?

nico679 said:

MoonRabbit said:

nico679 said:

MoonRabbit said:

ping said:

Lula 1.57
Bols 2.72

Is it beginning to look like the strangely confident Bolsonaro camp may have pulled off a shock win? 😕

Only 1.5% of the votes have been counted . The early results aren’t a good guide as they’re mostly rural .

If tte betting understands this, why was it tightening? 🫣

They clearly don’t . There are hardly any votes in from more urban areas and nothing at all from several Lula strongholds in the ne .

Yokes said:

Sean_F said:

kyf_100 said:

pigeon said:

Yokes said:

Jonathan said:

If Putin is close to defeat, is now the time to offer him something if we think he might go postal planet killer?

Not sure what. I guess that’s the trouble.

No, because the odds on him going nuclear are still fairly long. 1. People within his own coterie will seek to stop him and 2. I believe the US when they have said they will do a very large retaliation, which will, in effect end Russias ability to win this. And if they lose, Putin is likely done anyway.

In short even if he did, if the West sticks to that stance, Putin is finished

FWIW, a report in the Graun quotes General Petraeus (the ex-CIA director and senior American general) suggesting that NATO would respond to the use of tactical nuclear weapons by wiping out the Russian occupation forces in Ukraine and sinking the Black Sea fleet.

Besides which, a resort to nuclear weapons is the one atrocity so grave that the United States could use it as a wedge to separate China and India from Putin. In particular, if I were in Biden's place I'd be having conversations with Xi in such circumstances along the lines of (a) trade with Russia or trade with us, you can't have both; and then, if that doesn't force him to drop Putin like a red hot stove, (b) you back this shit using nuclear weapons to wage a war of conquest, and we'll both recognise Taiwanese independence and extend our own nuclear umbrella over the island. You will never, ever get it back.

Putin knows that there are a few lines he can't cross without triggering total economic isolation and the consequent collapse of the Russian economy, and so will all his cronies. If he wants to survive defeat then his best option isn't to resort to the indiscriminate use of WMDs, it's to draw up a long list of internal enemies on whom to blame the Russian army's failures and have them all arrested and tried for treason. Evidence of corruption on the part of almost every soldier above the rank of corporal shouldn't be hard to find for starters.

The Russians using even a single battlefield nuke will trigger mass panic in the west. Shelves cleared of tinned food, fighting in the aisles over the last roll of andrex. The markets will shit themselves. Like what happened last week - cascading margin calls - only much, much worse, and it will be much harder (and costlier) for the government to step in to stabilise things.

Meanwhile, a conventional reply by NATO forces - wiping out Russian positions in Ukraine, Black Sea Fleet, etc, could potentially lead to a deadly escalation. It could, for example, make ordinary Russian soldiers in the chain of command more likely to agree to an order from Putin to use strategic nukes, as they feel as if they are responding to NATO aggression. It could also lead to a deadly miscalculation - Russian radar sees a dozen conventional missiles approaching, mistakes them for a nuclear first strike, responds in kind.

"Strange game. The only winning move is not to play." That is the rational answer. The question is, is Putin rational? The other questions are: would his orders be followed, and what state is the Russian nuclear arsenal in? Questions I don't particularly want to find out the answers to. All I know is, this has the potential to escalate from here, very fast.

The events of the past seven months have demonstrated that Western peoples are not pathetic cowards who will let the Russians roll over Ukraine for fear of their living standards being adversely affected.

Putin is fucked, and there is nothing he can do about it now.

Just a minor correction: The events of the past seven months have demonstrated that Western peoples (except for the German political establishment) are not pathetic cowards who will let the Russians roll over Ukraine for fear of their living standards being adversely affected.

gettingbetter said:

ping said:

TimS said:

ping said:

MoonRabbit said:

ping said:

Lula 1.57
Bols 2.72

Is it beginning to look like the strangely confident Bolsonaro camp may have pulled off a shock win? 😕

I think the polls are broadly right and the betting markets, wrong.

But we’ll soon find out if in fact it is me that is the idiot.

Seems to be a similar dynamic to the US where the rural right wing votes come in first. Opposite to Britain.

Of course that gives Bolsonaro the opportunity to create an arc of hope then betrayal, setting up his followers perfectly for a Jan 6th style coup attempt.

Hmm. Not sure about that - they have electronic voting, so I’m not sure there’s much read across from our paper-vote elections.

Are there any sites which show the geographical breakdown of results?

I have been comparing the results in so far of some states with 2018 totals. I think Lula is going to win the first round by about 10% on that basis.

Andy_JS said:

This article is form 14th August:

"Drought in England could carry on into new year, experts warn
Without lots of heavy rain in autumn and winter, water restrictions could be tightened even further"

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/aug/14/drought-in-england-could-carry-on-into-new-year-experts-warn

Does anyone know whether the drought is over now?

Big_G_NorthWales said:

In all the stress and upset a nice gesture

In the street where my son and his family live a large bucket of apples lies at a neighbours gate

Anyone passing can help themselves to an apple or two, and the neighbour just keeps filling the bucket from her apple trees

We really do need happy stories

Big_G_NorthWales said:

In all the stress and upset a nice gesture

In the street where my son and his family live a large bucket of apples lies at a neighbours gate

Anyone passing can help themselves to an apple or two, and the neighbour just keeps filling the bucket from her apple trees

We really do need happy stories

Big_G_NorthWales said:

In all the stress and upset a nice gesture

In the street where my son and his family live a large bucket of apples lies at a neighbours gate

Anyone passing can help themselves to an apple or two, and the neighbour just keeps filling the bucket from her apple trees

We really do need happy stories

turbotubbs said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

In all the stress and upset a nice gesture

In the street where my son and his family live a large bucket of apples lies at a neighbours gate

Anyone passing can help themselves to an apple or two, and the neighbour just keeps filling the bucket from her apple trees

We really do need happy stories

That’s good, and common round here too. I often think our ancestors would think us mad for the way we squander fruit from trees in our gardens and import it in planes from thousands of miles away.

AlistairM said:

We have such buckets all over our village at this time of year. We even have a community orchard which doesn't just provide free fruit at this time of year but also sometimes hosts small musical events.

gettingbetter said:

gettingbetter said:

gettingbetter said:

gettingbetter said:

ping said:

TimS said:

ping said:

MoonRabbit said:

ping said:

Lula 1.57
Bols 2.72

Is it beginning to look like the strangely confident Bolsonaro camp may have pulled off a shock win? 😕

I think the polls are broadly right and the betting markets, wrong.

But we’ll soon find out if in fact it is me that is the idiot.

Seems to be a similar dynamic to the US where the rural right wing votes come in first. Opposite to Britain.

Of course that gives Bolsonaro the opportunity to create an arc of hope then betrayal, setting up his followers perfectly for a Jan 6th style coup attempt.

Hmm. Not sure about that - they have electronic voting, so I’m not sure there’s much read across from our paper-vote elections.

Are there any sites which show the geographical breakdown of results?

I have been comparing the results in so far of some states with 2018 totals. I think Lula is going to win the first round by about 10% on that basis.

resultsdos.tse.jus.br
That is what gives a breakdown. Sorry I can't post a hyperlink

Resultados.tsw.jus.br

Sorry editors it is tse not tsw

Benpointer said:

turbotubbs said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

In all the stress and upset a nice gesture

In the street where my son and his family live a large bucket of apples lies at a neighbours gate

Anyone passing can help themselves to an apple or two, and the neighbour just keeps filling the bucket from her apple trees

We really do need happy stories

That’s good, and common round here too. I often think our ancestors would think us mad for the way we squander fruit from trees in our gardens and import it in planes from thousands of miles away.

We have quite a few very productive apple trees - far too many for us. But so does just about everyone else in our village, so there's no point offering them to others.

Years ago they would have been made into cider but I'm not a cider fan. Mostly, the birds have them tbh.

rottenborough said:

Catching up on BBC News.

Every time Truss speaks she loses another 1% on the poll i reckon.

Utter disaster.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

In all the stress and upset a nice gesture

In the street where my son and his family live a large bucket of apples lies at a neighbours gate

Anyone passing can help themselves to an apple or two, and the neighbour just keeps filling the bucket from her apple trees

We really do need happy stories