A Tribute Act – politicalbetting.com

I thought it was very apt when I heard Liz Truss liked doing Madonna on the karaoke. Politicians so often seem to want to re-live their youth.

FrankBooth said:

I thought it was very apt when I heard Liz Truss liked doing Madonna on the karaoke. Politicians so often seem to want to re-live their youth.

Don't we all?

If only youth weren't so wasted on the young.

FrankBooth said:

I thought it was very apt when I heard Liz Truss liked doing Madonna on the karaoke. Politicians so often seem to want to re-live their youth.

Erotica

HYUFD said:

Though even John Major to be fair to him had more empathy than Truss and got 30% at the 1997 general election (having got 41% at the 1992 general election he won). Under Truss however the Tories are on just 27% with Opinium last night with Truss' pure libertarianism and her and Kwarteng's cut to the top rate of income tax for the highest earners which was not even in her leadership campaign platform and the markets rightly fear will be financed by borrowing while the axe also hangs over cuts in spending and welfare for the poorest

Indeed and the sobering thought for the conservatives is that Johnson became so toxic precipitating this descent into utter turmoil

FrankBooth said:

I thought it was very apt when I heard Liz Truss liked doing Madonna on the karaoke. Politicians so often seem to want to re-live their youth.

Immaterial Girl

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Though even John Major to be fair to him had more empathy than Truss and got 30% at the 1997 general election (having got 41% at the 1992 general election he won). Under Truss however the Tories are on just 27% with Opinium last night with Truss' pure libertarianism and her and Kwarteng's cut to the top rate of income tax for the highest earners which was not even in her leadership campaign platform and the markets rightly fear will be financed by borrowing while the axe also hangs over cuts in spending and welfare for the poorest

Indeed and the sobering thought for the conservatives is that Johnson became so toxic precipitating this descent into utter turmoil

Opinium's final poll under Johnson before he resigned had the Tories on 34%, 7% higher than they were polling with the same pollster under Truss last night. Truss is the first ever new PM in government to get a negative bounce!

https://www.opinium.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/VI-2022-06-22-Observer-Tables.xlsx

I just find it so awful Truss has boxed herself in now with public spending cuts to welfare

Good luck to them across the remaining days of the conference

bigjohnowls said:

FrankBooth said:

I thought it was very apt when I heard Liz Truss liked doing Madonna on the karaoke. Politicians so often seem to want to re-live their youth.

Erotica

Pauper don't preach

HYUFD said:

Though even John Major to be fair to him had more empathy than Truss and got 30% at the 1997 general election (having got 41% at the 1992 general election he won). Under Truss however the Tories are on just 27% with Opinium last night with Truss' pure libertarianism and her and Kwarteng's cut to the top rate of income tax for the highest earners which was not even in her leadership campaign platform and the markets rightly fear will be financed by borrowing while the axe also hangs over cuts in spending and welfare for the poorest

Cuts were not in Truss's leadership campaign either. She did speak of a 10-year plan, and debt-reduction only from year three, helpfully after the next election.

Kwasi tomorrow and the Prime Minister on Wednesday need to nail down how their hope for growth becomes a plan for growth, or it is all over. Tomorrow afternoon is billed as "Delivering a Growing Economy". They need something.
https://www.conservatives.com/conference/agenda

The solution to the Tories woes is not Johnson. He is almost as much a cause as Truss. He was just better at deflecting attention and papering over cracks.

Razedabode said:

I just find it so awful Truss has boxed herself in now with public spending cuts to welfare

Good luck to them across the remaining days of the conference

Labour have also boxed themselves in by supporting the income tax cut to 19p. I bet they wished they hadn't now.

Jonathan said:

The solution to the Tories woes is not Johnson. He is almost as much a cause as Truss. He was just better at deflecting attention and papering over cracks.

Though FWIW it seems almost to be a feature nowadays of British politics that whatever preceded the chaos through which we are currently living seems like a golden age by comparison. Absolutely, Johnson is not the saviour that the Tories are looking for - but, unbelievably, he seems preferable to the replacement.

bigjohnowls said:

SKS is also a tribute act without the charisma ideas or political nous and is still 20pts ahead

Yeah, any other leader would be…wait…

FrankBooth said:

Razedabode said:

I just find it so awful Truss has boxed herself in now with public spending cuts to welfare

Good luck to them across the remaining days of the conference

Labour have also boxed themselves in by supporting the income tax cut to 19p. I bet they wished they hadn't now.

Not only that but Rachel Reeves confirmed the axeing of the NI which together is 20 billion of borrowing

Furthermore this morning she announced Labour's support for the government's 2 year energy cap but could only quote on going enhanced windfall taxes as paying the costs of over 100 billion

FrankBooth said:

Razedabode said:

I just find it so awful Truss has boxed herself in now with public spending cuts to welfare

Good luck to them across the remaining days of the conference

Labour have also boxed themselves in by supporting the income tax cut to 19p. I bet they wished they hadn't now.

Nah. To do otherwise would have been to walk straight into a really obvious Tory trap.

In any case, there is nothing rightwing about putting money back into the pockets of working people.

I’m glad Sir Keir Royale backed 19p.

pigeon said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Though even John Major to be fair to him had more empathy than Truss and got 30% at the 1997 general election (having got 41% at the 1992 general election he won). Under Truss however the Tories are on just 27% with Opinium last night with Truss' pure libertarianism and her and Kwarteng's cut to the top rate of income tax for the highest earners which was not even in her leadership campaign platform and the markets rightly fear will be financed by borrowing while the axe also hangs over cuts in spending and welfare for the poorest

Indeed and the sobering thought for the conservatives is that Johnson became so toxic precipitating this descent into utter turmoil

Opinium's final poll under Johnson before he resigned had the Tories on 34%, 7% higher than they were polling with the same pollster under Truss last night

https://www.opinium.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/VI-2022-06-22-Observer-Tables.xlsx

You really do not understand Johnson toxic behaviour and his lying was the starting pistol for this ignomony

It's the Thatcher betrayal narrative all over again. In twenty years' time there'll still be ancient Bufton-Tuftons in quiet corners of the leafy shires grumbling that we wouldn't be living through the fourth term of this awful socialist Government, if only that treasonous Sunak fellow and his minions hadn't brought Boris down.

As they argued the same about Thatcher being betrayed by Heseltine during the New Labour government years. Boris' shadow will stay over the party for a decade or 2 after he went as Thatcher's did.

Labour too spent 12 years in opposition and counting after removing Blair as PM and Blairites are only now returning to the party under Starmer after the wilderness years

HYUFD said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Though even John Major to be fair to him had more empathy than Truss and got 30% at the 1997 general election (having got 41% at the 1992 general election he won). Under Truss however the Tories are on just 27% with Opinium last night with Truss' pure libertarianism and her and Kwarteng's cut to the top rate of income tax for the highest earners which was not even in her leadership campaign platform and the markets rightly fear will be financed by borrowing while the axe also hangs over cuts in spending and welfare for the poorest

Indeed and the sobering thought for the conservatives is that Johnson became so toxic precipitating this descent into utter turmoil

Opinium's final poll under Johnson before he resigned had the Tories on 34%, 7% higher than they were polling with the same pollster under Truss last night

https://www.opinium.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/VI-2022-06-22-Observer-Tables.xlsx

You really do not understand Johnson toxic behaviour and his lying was the starting pistol for this ignomony

Facts are facts, removing Boris and replacing him with Truss has turned a potentially narrow Tory defeat or upset victory into a landslide Tory defeat and victory for Starmer

That isn't a fact; it's a prediction.

A prediction based on current polls

Which are irrelevant

Jonathan said:

kle4 said:

Truss has noted that Thatcher took tough decisions and was often unpopular and concluded that if she is unpopular, that means her decisions must be right.

That's about it, yes. You can see this very clearly when the cheerleaders insist that pushing on regardless of criticisms is the right thing, without assessing those criticisms. Or indeed, pretending those criticising are the usual opposition figures only.

Giving tax cuts to supporters and donors is not tough. Going for growth on the back of borrowing is not clever.

Truss is not Thatcher.

You're unduly harsh - they also gave tax cuts to rich people who were not their supporters, they are equal opportunity when it comes to helping rich people.

Anabobazina said:

FrankBooth said:

Razedabode said:

I just find it so awful Truss has boxed herself in now with public spending cuts to welfare

Good luck to them across the remaining days of the conference

Labour have also boxed themselves in by supporting the income tax cut to 19p. I bet they wished they hadn't now.

Nah. To do otherwise would have been to walk straight into a really obvious Tory trap.

In any case, there is nothing rightwing about putting money back into the pockets of working people.

I’m glad Sir Keir Royale backed 19p.

But it is borrowed as is NI and the argument is you cannot fund tax cuts on borrowing

Jonathan said:

bigjohnowls said:

SKS is also a tribute act without the charisma ideas or political nous and is still 20pts ahead

Better than Corbyns Tony Benn tribune act that put us 20pts behind.

I’m starting to wonder whether Owls has been Shanghaied by a spoof poster

HYUFD said:

Jonathan said:

bigjohnowls said:

SKS is also a tribute act without the charisma ideas or political nous and is still 20pts ahead

Better than Corbyns Tony Benn tribune act that put us 20pts behind.

Labour under Starmer is now the party of the centre as it was under Blair, it has left Corbyn hard left ideology behind.

It is the Tories who are now putting ideology first, Truss their most hard right leader, especially on economics, since IDS

Have you thought what you may turn your hand to when the conservatives are rarer then hens teeth ?

HYUFD said:

Jonathan said:

bigjohnowls said:

SKS is also a tribute act without the charisma ideas or political nous and is still 20pts ahead

Better than Corbyns Tony Benn tribune act that put us 20pts behind.

Labour under Starmer is now the party of the centre as it was under Blair, it has left Corbyn hard left ideology behind.

It is the Tories who are now putting ideology first, Truss their most hard right leader, especially on economics, since IDS

You should join. Perfect home for a nominal Tory who doesn't really have any political convictions beyond glory seeking.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Jonathan said:

bigjohnowls said:

SKS is also a tribute act without the charisma ideas or political nous and is still 20pts ahead

Better than Corbyns Tony Benn tribune act that put us 20pts behind.

Labour under Starmer is now the party of the centre as it was under Blair, it has left Corbyn hard left ideology behind.

It is the Tories who are now putting ideology first, Truss their most hard right leader, especially on economics, since IDS

Have you thought what you may turn your hand to when the conservatives are rarer then hens teeth ?

I will just be a rare hens tooth for a few years

HYUFD said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Though even John Major to be fair to him had more empathy than Truss and got 30% at the 1997 general election (having got 41% at the 1992 general election he won). Under Truss however the Tories are on just 27% with Opinium last night with Truss' pure libertarianism and her and Kwarteng's cut to the top rate of income tax for the highest earners which was not even in her leadership campaign platform and the markets rightly fear will be financed by borrowing while the axe also hangs over cuts in spending and welfare for the poorest

Indeed and the sobering thought for the conservatives is that Johnson became so toxic precipitating this descent into utter turmoil

Opinium's final poll under Johnson before he resigned had the Tories on 34%, 7% higher than they were polling with the same pollster under Truss last night

https://www.opinium.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/VI-2022-06-22-Observer-Tables.xlsx

You really do not understand Johnson toxic behaviour and his lying was the starting pistol for this ignomony

Facts are facts, removing Boris and replacing him with Truss has turned a potentially narrow Tory defeat or upset victory into a landslide Tory defeat and victory for Starmer

That isn't a fact; it's a prediction.

A prediction based on current polls

Yes. An informed prediction, but a prediction not a fact nonetheless.

Nostalgia buffs should watch Channel 5 9-10.30pm.

1978: Winter of Discontent
Documentary | 1hour 30minutes
The story of seven bleak months of industrial chaos that changed Britain forever.
https://www.channel5.com/tvguide/channel-5

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Anabobazina said:

FrankBooth said:

Razedabode said:

I just find it so awful Truss has boxed herself in now with public spending cuts to welfare

Good luck to them across the remaining days of the conference

Labour have also boxed themselves in by supporting the income tax cut to 19p. I bet they wished they hadn't now.

Nah. To do otherwise would have been to walk straight into a really obvious Tory trap.

In any case, there is nothing rightwing about putting money back into the pockets of working people.

I’m glad Sir Keir Royale backed 19p.

But it is borrowed as is NI and the argument is you cannot fund tax cuts on borrowing

But Labour are free to raise taxes in other areas. Indeed they have said they would impose a windfall tax on energy companies, they would not scrap the 45% rate, and as far as I am aware they have not said 'no new taxes' so are free to do all sorts of things to counter the loss to public revenue of the 19p rate. They would be mad to follow the Tories borrowing plan - and Labour are not mad.

With respect, it is wishful thinking on your part to assume Labour would be just as bad as the current shambles.

Richard_Tyndall said:

MoonRabbit said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

rcs1000 said:

Sean_F said:

rcs1000 said:

Leon said:

williamglenn said:

Beibheirli_C said:

SandyRentool said:

Truss will get Kwarteng to announce the U-turn, if it happens. Swiftly followed by his resignation.

Then she can focus on energy bills and supporting Ukraine. She might even wear a new necklace.

If she does not announce it on Wednesday in her speech, she will be in even deeper do-do

If a 40% top rate of tax is good enough for Ireland, why is it unacceptable for the UK?

It's not the rate, it's the timing, the optics and the context

Look, I'd benefit massively (on my return to the UK) from the dropping of the tax rate.

But I think it's madness to be cutting my taxes, while reducing benefits in real terms, during the middle of a cost of living crisis.

If I was going to do something for higher earners, it would be getting rid of the ridiculous stuff around £100k with the removal of the tax free allowance, etc.

Yes, I scratch my head over the top tax rate reduction, and ending the cap on bankers' bonuses. You do that sort of thing when the economy is doing fine.

If I were Chancellor (swapping one 1994 Trinity alumni for another), I would have made a few changes:

(1) I wouldn't have introduced an energy price cap costing 6.5% of GDP. Ultimately, that won't reduce energy demand as much as it should, because it is dulling the price signal. By contrast, I would have looked at direct support payments to families, that would have covered (on average) 70% of the increase in their bills. If they'd wanted to use that money to pay for energy they could; or they might decide instead to use it on insulation, solar panels, or jumpers. In this way, we'd spend less money, preserve the price signal, and cut gas electricity/demand by more, while avoiding too much pain.

(2) I would not have gotten rid of the 45% rate of tax. Indeed, I think I might have increased it to 50%, but I would have raised the rate at which it applied to (say) incomes in excess of £250k.

(3) I would have gotten rid of the removal of the tax free allowance, and all the distortion that causes at c. £100k. (Ditto childcare allowances, etc.)

(4) I would have introduced much lower rates of stamp duty for anyone "trading down". We want to encourage old people in big, empty houses to move to smaller places, not make it extremely expensive.

(5) I would equalise tax treatment of mortgage interest between corporate entities and individuals.

YMMV

With regard to (1) how would you have dealt with the wholesale collapse of SMEs, with most of our shops and hospitality industry going out of business because of the high energy costs?

The household price cap solution cannot be used on business, for there is no cap for business - it actually has to be two different solutions, households and business.

Agreed but Robert's proposals seem to do nothing to address the business issue.

It’s up to RCS to speak about his own Business Support package, but what I said is true, if we were not wasting such colossal sums on the household package, that wasted money is in play to offer struggling businesses even more help.

Obviously no pressure on RCS, but Kwarteng at least managed to cobble something together, but the proof of any energy package will be in the heating, and what we know about reaction to the household package, it was hated by those charities who know the struggling well, it just won’t help those in need enough and the current have a hell of a whack coming their way of this, whilst serious economists wince at how much money it wastes from the moment Labour first publicised the rotten idea.

No. The same household bill freeze package doesn’t have to be means tested, the truth here it just doesn’t have to be that way of doing it at all!

Think outside your box with the metres in it, by turning the single point Energy Price Cap into a variable price cap where the price per unit of energy used rises with usage. A sliding price cap means marginal user costs increase. RCS is right, it’s the people at the lower end who really need the assistance here, If a solution doesn’t have those most in need front and centre, then it’s not the right solution is it? We should be reducing energy bills for lower-income households in the country while higher earners, who consume more energy, bear a more commensurate share of the higher cost. More help to the the most in need, and a much cheaper solution overall.

https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/A-Variable-Energy-Price-Cap.pdf

Some things are just unknowable. Probably down to those anti-semite remainer traitors again.

"I have no idea where this narrative has emerged from that the government is abandoning Levelling Up" says @DehennaDavison. she does not believe govt is backing away. She agrees with the "Social Capitalism" report. Talks about the Community Ownership Fund as an exemplar.

https://twitter.com/sundersays/status/1576631910033330176?cxt=HHwWgMCosc2XqeErAAAA

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Nostalgia buffs should watch Channel 5 9-10.30pm.

1978: Winter of Discontent
Documentary | 1hour 30minutes
The story of seven bleak months of industrial chaos that changed Britain forever.
https://www.channel5.com/tvguide/channel-5

No need - I can just watch the news.

Razedabode said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

On a positive note, the thread header appears to be spelled correctly.

On a less positive side, I would like Cyclefree to stretch herself next time, and not do a 'things are terrible and awful and shit, and everyone is stupid, and here's 7 bullet points about why and how.' thread header. A lot of people seem to use PB as therapy to cleanse them of their rage and negativity, but usually it's below the line. Maybe actually propose something positive that might make things better in a small way?

Regarding economical growth, the header is wrong - going for growth was exactly what Sunak wasn't going to do; in common with the general Davos consensus, his prospectus was a swerve into austerity that held every prospect of not only bringing a recession, but a depression. We're lucky we've dodged that bullet. Growth itself is a rebellious choice these days, and God speed Truss for making it her choice.

Have you always been so patronising, or is this just a weekend thing?

I feel it suits the tone of the header.

Worth nothing this, because when Truss says she is willing to be unpopular it is an untruth. She believes, rightly or not, that it will be popular later.

Now, she may or may not be right about it generating sufficient growth (I'd argue her lack of preparation and total surprise at what has transpired since the announcement would suggest her plans are likely not going to delivery what she thought), and people will disagree about whether it unfairly hits the poor (but it really does), but I think even if it does work, she will be surprised that people will not suddenly decide they like it. If it was as unpopular as this, it will remain unpopular even if there is some movement.

I cannot stress enough how UNPOPULAR slashing taxes and cutting spending on public services is. It is an utterly toxic combination. Here is the latest British Social Attitudes survey. It's a 6% position ...

https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1576480862857592833?cxt=HHwWgoCgncC_5OArAAAA

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

HYUFD said:

Jonathan said:

bigjohnowls said:

SKS is also a tribute act without the charisma ideas or political nous and is still 20pts ahead

Better than Corbyns Tony Benn tribune act that put us 20pts behind.

Labour under Starmer is now the party of the centre as it was under Blair, it has left Corbyn hard left ideology behind.

It is the Tories who are now putting ideology first, Truss their most hard right leader, especially on economics, since IDS

You should join. Perfect home for a nominal Tory who doesn't really have any political convictions beyond glory seeking.

I disagree with HYUFD about almost everything but it is laughable to accuse him of lacking convictions, and far from being a nominal Tory he is someone who works tirelessly for his party at the grassroots level. He was also completely right about Truss, whom he confidently predicted would be a disaster.

And who has two years to serve.

Luckyguy1983 said:

HYUFD said:

Jonathan said:

bigjohnowls said:

SKS is also a tribute act without the charisma ideas or political nous and is still 20pts ahead

Better than Corbyns Tony Benn tribune act that put us 20pts behind.

Labour under Starmer is now the party of the centre as it was under Blair, it has left Corbyn hard left ideology behind.

It is the Tories who are now putting ideology first, Truss their most hard right leader, especially on economics, since IDS

You should join. Perfect home for a nominal Tory who doesn't really have any political convictions beyond glory seeking.

I have voted and campaigned for the party throughout my adult life and will continue to do so despite my reservations about Truss and her libertarian ideology. I also have never campaigned for another party, Truss started off her political career as a card carrying member of and campaigner for the Liberal Democrats. So I don't need lectures about 'nominal Toryism' from supporters of her!

Sounds depressing when put in these terms, but considering the start of things, and what one hopes is the consistent direction of travel, still impressive.

Over the month of September 🇺🇦 has liberated approximately 10,608km² of Ukraine.

This means that 🇷🇺 currently occupies ~17.72% of Ukraine. ~1.76% less of the total area of the country than at the end of August.

https://twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1576366096571314176?cxt=HHwWgMDR4ZynsOArAAAA

Benpointer said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Anabobazina said:

FrankBooth said:

Razedabode said:

I just find it so awful Truss has boxed herself in now with public spending cuts to welfare

Good luck to them across the remaining days of the conference

Labour have also boxed themselves in by supporting the income tax cut to 19p. I bet they wished they hadn't now.

Nah. To do otherwise would have been to walk straight into a really obvious Tory trap.

In any case, there is nothing rightwing about putting money back into the pockets of working people.

I’m glad Sir Keir Royale backed 19p.

But it is borrowed as is NI and the argument is you cannot fund tax cuts on borrowing

But Labour are free to raise taxes in other areas. Indeed they have said they would impose a windfall tax on energy companies, they would not scrap the 45% rate, and as far as I am aware they have not said 'no new taxes' so are free to do all sorts of things to counter the loss to public revenue of the 19p rate. They would be mad to follow the Tories borrowing plan - and Labour are not mad.

With respect, it is wishful thinking on your part to assume Labour would be just as bad as the current shambles.

I am not suggesting they will be anywhere near as bad, indeed that is impossible, but they will face scrutiny from the OBR and IMF and to be honest the 45 rate only raises 2 billion and why it was such a stupid tax to die on

The windfall tax has already raised 8 billion this year and their enhanced one is estimated to add another 2 billion so a large amount of borrowing is needed

The only other tax that may raise billions is a wealth tax but nobody has put forward a proposal on it so far

MarqueeMark said:

HYUFD said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

HYUFD said:

Jonathan said:

bigjohnowls said:

SKS is also a tribute act without the charisma ideas or political nous and is still 20pts ahead

Better than Corbyns Tony Benn tribune act that put us 20pts behind.

Labour under Starmer is now the party of the centre as it was under Blair, it has left Corbyn hard left ideology behind.

It is the Tories who are now putting ideology first, Truss their most hard right leader, especially on economics, since IDS

You should join. Perfect home for a nominal Tory who doesn't really have any political convictions beyond glory seeking.

I have voted and campaigned for the party throughout my adult life and will continue to do so despite my reservations about Truss and her libertarian ideology. I also have never campaigned for another party, Truss started off her political career as a card carrying member of and campaigner for the Liberal Democrats. So I don't need lectures about 'nominal Toryism' from supporters of her!

I have voted and campaigned for the party through nearly 50 years. I have stopped doing so because of my reservations about Truss and her libertarian ideology.

Not for me.

Strikes me you could be doing a bit more to promote Tidal at the heart of Government, during an energy crisis with an administration that has publicly committed itself both to domestic power supply but still to Net Zero. Instead you're on here venting about how dreadful the PM is. Is this your normal way of getting things done?

MoonRabbit said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

MoonRabbit said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

rcs1000 said:

Sean_F said:

rcs1000 said:

Leon said:

williamglenn said:

Beibheirli_C said:

SandyRentool said:

Truss will get Kwarteng to announce the U-turn, if it happens. Swiftly followed by his resignation.

Then she can focus on energy bills and supporting Ukraine. She might even wear a new necklace.

If she does not announce it on Wednesday in her speech, she will be in even deeper do-do

If a 40% top rate of tax is good enough for Ireland, why is it unacceptable for the UK?

It's not the rate, it's the timing, the optics and the context

Look, I'd benefit massively (on my return to the UK) from the dropping of the tax rate.

But I think it's madness to be cutting my taxes, while reducing benefits in real terms, during the middle of a cost of living crisis.

If I was going to do something for higher earners, it would be getting rid of the ridiculous stuff around £100k with the removal of the tax free allowance, etc.

Yes, I scratch my head over the top tax rate reduction, and ending the cap on bankers' bonuses. You do that sort of thing when the economy is doing fine.

If I were Chancellor (swapping one 1994 Trinity alumni for another), I would have made a few changes:

(1) I wouldn't have introduced an energy price cap costing 6.5% of GDP. Ultimately, that won't reduce energy demand as much as it should, because it is dulling the price signal. By contrast, I would have looked at direct support payments to families, that would have covered (on average) 70% of the increase in their bills. If they'd wanted to use that money to pay for energy they could; or they might decide instead to use it on insulation, solar panels, or jumpers. In this way, we'd spend less money, preserve the price signal, and cut gas electricity/demand by more, while avoiding too much pain.

(2) I would not have gotten rid of the 45% rate of tax. Indeed, I think I might have increased it to 50%, but I would have raised the rate at which it applied to (say) incomes in excess of £250k.

(3) I would have gotten rid of the removal of the tax free allowance, and all the distortion that causes at c. £100k. (Ditto childcare allowances, etc.)

(4) I would have introduced much lower rates of stamp duty for anyone "trading down". We want to encourage old people in big, empty houses to move to smaller places, not make it extremely expensive.

(5) I would equalise tax treatment of mortgage interest between corporate entities and individuals.

YMMV

With regard to (1) how would you have dealt with the wholesale collapse of SMEs, with most of our shops and hospitality industry going out of business because of the high energy costs?

The household price cap solution cannot be used on business, for there is no cap for business - it actually has to be two different solutions, households and business.

Agreed but Robert's proposals seem to do nothing to address the business issue.

It’s up to RCS to speak about his own Business Support package, but what I said is true, if we were not wasting such colossal sums on the household package, that wasted money is in play to offer struggling businesses even more help.

Obviously no pressure on RCS, but Kwarteng at least managed to cobble something together, but the proof of any energy package will be in the heating, and what we know about reaction to the household package, it was hated by those charities who know the struggling well, it just won’t help those in need enough and the current have a hell of a whack coming their way of this, whilst serious economists wince at how much money it wastes from the moment Labour first publicised the rotten idea.

No. The same household bill freeze package doesn’t have to be means tested, the truth here it just doesn’t have to be that way of doing it at all!

Think outside your box with the metres in it, by turning the single point Energy Price Cap into a variable price cap where the price per unit of energy used rises with usage. A sliding price cap means marginal user costs increase. RCS is right, it’s the people at the lower end who really need the assistance here, If a solution doesn’t have those most in need front and centre, then it’s not the right solution is it? We should be reducing energy bills for lower-income households in the country while higher earners, who consume more energy, bear a more commensurate share of the higher cost. More help to the the most in need, and a much cheaper solution overall.

https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/A-Variable-Energy-Price-Cap.pdf

The governments price freeze is wrong on two important counts, RCS flagged up both in one straightforward post, Liz Truss and Kier Starmer and Ed Davey (to be fair there is more than one idiot backing this) freezing energy bills plan detaches price signal mechanism from the purchase of energy, in effect locking in energy demand at its current level - Zero incentive to bring energy consumption down. And secondly the thru life costs of freezing energy bills is not known, as NigelB said we can’t know the costs of energy a year from now, but we know this scheme costs UK government around £100B for this winter alone, this government wants it right up to the next election so likely an unsustainable £200B+ depending how quickly energy comes down, but variable energy price cap doesn’t lock you into anything like that massive amount of borrowing now and tax and higher bills in future to pay off that scale of borrowing. Not using many words this article absolutely nails it.

https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/economics/17487-switch-to-variable-energy-price-cap-could-solve-the-cost-of-living-crisis-and-save-the-treasury-billions-says-niesr

With regard to the 'energy package', my own view is that we should have
1. A proper public information campaign about reducing usage
2. Cutting VAT on electricity and gas; at the moment, the higher prices are, the more the government takes
3. Suspending the green levy (money down the drain)
4. Focussing financial help on those in greatest need or most vulnerable, including those who through poverty are on 'pay as you go', which has a higher tariff.
5. Freezing the standing charges...there is no reason for them to be raised

Meanwhile, Scottish Power want to put up my direct debit, even though I am over £1900 in credit, equivalent to eight months elec and gas in my household

Cyclefree's analysis is spot on - and delivered with both barrels.

PeterM said:

pigeon said:

Sean_F said:

pigeon said:

Sean_F said:

pigeon said:

Someone has helpfully posted a clip from the interview that Conservative Chairman Jake Berry did with Sophy Ridge this morning, so I can quote him directly:

People know that when their bills arrive, they can either cut their consumption or they can get higher salary or higher wages, go out there and get that new job. That's the approach the Government is taking. We are saying "Look, let's create growth so households can afford their bills" as well as the brilliant work we're doing on energy bills.

So, the general message is that people who are on lower incomes should either freeze in Winter or find better paid work. Great. Firstly the UK 'jobs miracle' that Boris Johnson always used to go on about largely consists of minimum wage crap jobs, so how are all these people suddenly meant to find the kind of upper middle class employment that will still pay them just about enough to heat and eat properly? Secondly, a lot of those who are in full-time employment and yet already rationing fuel use and buying budget brands (or even visiting food banks) are the very same key workers that we were all entreated to praise, and engage in performative pot banging in honour of, only a couple of years ago. If all the chronically underpaid care home workers, nurses and so on who struggle with their bills tried to piss off to work in city financial institutions (or, for that matter, in Aldi) then we, as a nation, would be completely sunk.

These are our rulers. Tone deaf, cruel and absolutely thick as mince.

While I think Jake Berry is a tone deaf idiot, I think the misery porn can be overblown. Anyone in middle class employment lives very well.

This evidently depends very much on your personal circumstances, and on exactly how high your earnings are. With the ridiculous state of rents, mortgages, childcare costs and petrol prices, a lot of really quite well paid couples would nonetheless have been in the just about managing category before the latest inflationary shock. We now have significant food price inflation, most pay settlements contracting in real terms, those nasty domestic energy bills, and very substantial increases in accommodation costs coming round the corner to knock an awful lot of people clear over the edge of the financial precipice. It's not going to be pretty.

The FT majored heavily a fortnight ago, on the "deterioration" of median incomes over the past 22 years, when the actual data showed median household incomes rising from $30,000 to $44,000 in real terms over that period.

Two questions immediately spring to mind. Firstly, how much of the reported real terms increase happened in the first eight years and how much in the subsequent period? Secondly, what was the increase in housing costs over the same period? I strongly suspect that figures banded about which purport to show levels of affluence in the likes of Slovenia and Poland about to overtake, or at least approach, those in the UK are rooted in the effects of Britain's system of investments-not-homes property speculation.

An outright owner-occupier can still live very comfortably in this country off a modest income; mortgage or rent payers, not so much.

If you live in say the north of england and are mortgage free a single person could live very comfortably on 25 grand a year

Probably true further south as well.

But to have paid of a mortgage on a forever home, you either need to be in at least your fifties and bought before the Blair house price boom or have had a hefty windfall.

And there are the two nations separated by age again.

This stuff matters, because the UK isn't as prosperous as we'd like, and we can't pay for the things we'd like without tax rates we don't.

And it's tempting to blame Brussels, Immigrants, Greens or Davos for that, but I suspect the issue is decisions we have collectively taken, maybe without realising. I'm pretty sure that pumping so much money into hose prices is one of those.

franklyn said:

With regard to the 'energy package', my own view is that we should have
1. A proper public information campaign about reducing usage
2. Cutting VAT on electricity and gas; at the moment, the higher prices are, the more the government takes
3. Suspending the green levy (money down the drain)
4. Focussing financial help on those in greatest need or most vulnerable, including those who through poverty are on 'pay as you go', which has a higher tariff.
5. Freezing the standing charges...there is no reason for them to be raised

Meanwhile, Scottish Power want to put up my direct debit, even though I am over £1900 in credit, equivalent to eight months elec and gas in my household

There has been a suggestion that under Boris's Brexit deal, we cannot actually change VAT. It does seem to have been oddly left out of all Truss's stimulus schemes. If true, it's a ticking time bomb. And something that could destroy any future chance of Boris returning to front line politics.

numbertwelve said:

Truss had one good potential card to play. She is not a good communicator or orator, so the tactic had to be: “I know I’m not the smoothest but I can get things done, I know how government works, I will steady the ship.”

That was the only way she was going to get a hearing from the GBP.

Instead she has shown she is not able to get things done (any idea this mini budget is getting through the Commons in current form is for the birds), she doesn’t have a clear grasp on how government works and she’s spent her time in office poking holes in the ship.

It’s hard to see how anyone could have done worse to be frank.

Well lets hope at least some elements of it are voted down

The paradox last week was that the Bank was proclaiming its intention of raising interest rates to counter inflation – ie a contractionary monetary policy – while having, with its much publicised intervention, to pump liquidity into the financial system – ie an easing of monetary policy – in the interest of restoring financial stability.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/oct/02/liz-truss-and-kwasi-kwartengs-foolish-dash-for-growth-is-a-non-starter

There's more to come me thinks on this crisis. BoE has only agreed QE for two weeks to try and stabilise pensions. Then what?

Big_G_NorthWales said:

FrankBooth said:

Razedabode said:

I just find it so awful Truss has boxed herself in now with public spending cuts to welfare

Good luck to them across the remaining days of the conference

Labour have also boxed themselves in by supporting the income tax cut to 19p. I bet they wished they hadn't now.

Not only that but Rachel Reeves confirmed the axeing of the NI which together is 20 billion of borrowing

Furthermore this morning she announced Labour's support for the government's 2 year energy cap but could only quote on going enhanced windfall taxes as paying the costs of over 100 billion

The difference is that Labour might well (will ?) introduce wealth taxes.
You have to look at revenue as well as spending.

MarqueeMark said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

MarqueeMark said:

HYUFD said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

HYUFD said:

Jonathan said:

bigjohnowls said:

SKS is also a tribute act without the charisma ideas or political nous and is still 20pts ahead

Better than Corbyns Tony Benn tribune act that put us 20pts behind.

Labour under Starmer is now the party of the centre as it was under Blair, it has left Corbyn hard left ideology behind.

It is the Tories who are now putting ideology first, Truss their most hard right leader, especially on economics, since IDS

You should join. Perfect home for a nominal Tory who doesn't really have any political convictions beyond glory seeking.

I have voted and campaigned for the party throughout my adult life and will continue to do so despite my reservations about Truss and her libertarian ideology. I also have never campaigned for another party, Truss started off her political career as a card carrying member of and campaigner for the Liberal Democrats. So I don't need lectures about 'nominal Toryism' from supporters of her!

I have voted and campaigned for the party through nearly 50 years. I have stopped doing so because of my reservations about Truss and her libertarian ideology.

Not for me.

Strikes me you could be doing a bit more to promote Tidal at the heart of Government, during an energy crisis with an administration that has publicly committed itself both to domestic power supply but still to Net Zero. Instead you're on here venting about how dreadful the PM is. Is this your normal way of getting things done?

Pah! I will one day share with the class the letter I wrote to Kwasi Kwarteng making the case for tidal. Following his invitation to do so.

Hand delivered to him by Sir Patrick McLoughlin.

Never even had the courtesy of a response.

So I will wait until the **** has been moved on.

I'm not going to speak for Kwarteng because I've never rated him, though I'll say two things, firstly, he's not going to be moved on, as politically, he's been so criticised it's now impossible for Truss to move him on without seeming disastrously weak. Secondly, if it was given to him in his BEIS days, he's now part of a very different Government with a very different leader. See also fracking which he poopoohed but is now back and there's duck all he can do about it.

You need to get it in front of Truss. She needs good news stories and something to burnish her eco-credentials as she moves forward with oil and gas.