Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

No overall majority back as favourite in the GE betting – politicalbetting.com

123578

Comments

  • nico679nico679 Posts: 2,551

    The trouble with a coronation is how can you stop Johnson standing as an alternative to Sunak? So long as someone else stands it has to go to the members right? Of course there is no need to change party leader. If Truss loses the confidence of the house she will have to suggest someone who can form a government. The obvious answer is Sunak.

    If it’s a coronation I’d expect Sunak to beat Johnson if that was the final two . I’d expect Johnson would lose to most candidates .

    Why would Tory MPs remove Truss to put in a discredited pathological liar who could still be found to have misled parliament .
  • TimSTimS Posts: 2,721
    edited October 1
    On Lula, Ukraine and Brazil’s place in the world:

    He is of course no natural ally of the “neoliberal / Anglo Saxon” world but here’s someone with a decent chunk of the future of the planet in his hands (and on the right side), a person and a country with no dog in any of the Eurasian geopolitical fights, coming after a total twat who’s almost identikit Trump, and he’ll enter the presidency with both a huge mandate (possibly first round) and experience.

    Macron should get on the phone. See what we can do. He’s probably a more reliable honest broker than Erdogan.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,112
    Leaked video of the paid lobbyists advising Liz Truss...

    @JMPSimor This was prophecy not satire. https://twitter.com/iliad1orig/status/1575798797531242496/video/1
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 7,109
    What do you call a person with no political antennae?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 55,032

    What do you call a person with no political antennae?

    Truss
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 104,916
    edited October 1
    nico679 said:

    The trouble with a coronation is how can you stop Johnson standing as an alternative to Sunak? So long as someone else stands it has to go to the members right? Of course there is no need to change party leader. If Truss loses the confidence of the house she will have to suggest someone who can form a government. The obvious answer is Sunak.

    If it’s a coronation I’d expect Sunak to beat Johnson if that was the final two . I’d expect Johnson would lose to most candidates .

    Why would Tory MPs remove Truss to put in a discredited pathological liar who could still be found to have misled parliament .
    Johnson would beat Sunak with the membership, he would have beaten Truss with them too. If he got just 20 Tory MPs to nominate him he could go a members ballot with Sunak if nobody else ran.

    If Truss went before the next general election then Boris would now probably be favourite to succeed her
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 7,790
    HYUFD said:

    Kwasi Kwarteng attended a private champagne reception with hedge fund managers hours after his mini budget

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1576261348295589889?s=20&t=lGgXif78ov7hsdqobiabxg

    One of those sentences that gets worse with each word you add.
  • MJWMJW Posts: 772

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I’ve struck a bet with a friend.

    Tories to poll 15% or lower with a BPC registered pollster in a GB wide Westminster poll before the locals.

    It won't take that long:
    1. Conference will be a catastrofuck. TK unable to do human things like speak or display empathy
    2. Another market crisis certain. Can kicked down road, not removed.
    3. The "lets slash public services" plan is to come

    Never mind the egregious damage to the party, this is doing similarly fatal damage to our electoral system. There is no mandate for this. None. Yet they parade "we have a majority of 80" at the press. Expect a push to replace FPTP.
    It will be v interesting to see how much liquidity BoE swamps the markets with during Truss's Wednesday speech.

    In no way do I excuse the idiotic behaviour of Kwarteng and Truss but tonight analysts are saying the Eurozone is at risk on the same scale as the crisis they suffered a decade ago amid surging inflation and aggressive interest rates worldwide

    Analysts say the eurozone is at risk from the same chaos that struck the UK

    In view of everything happening it is hardly surprising that the UK will not be the only country facing a crises of confidence in its government but Kwarteng and Truss are in a league of their own

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/10/01/eurozone-risk-financial-meltdown-market-chaos-spreads/
    I never thought much of Kwarteng, but Truss has the makings of a truly great PM, and I don't think we realise how lucky we are.
    She might outlast Douglas Home, if she makes as 'great' a PM as Brown and May I think that would be a relative triumph for her given her current position
    The woman has balls of steel. She does not give a fuck whether she's talking to HMK, Joe Biden, the IMF, Radio Tees, the parliamentary Tory party (aka a bunch of pathetic twats), or Nick Ferari. She is the same with everyone. She means what she says and the says what she means. That just does not happen, and of course, PB doesn't get it, the stupider the PBer, the less they get it.
    Truss is as ideological and rigid in her libertarian, small state views as Corbyn was in his socialism yes. However she lacks even the charisma Corbyn had to express them, let alone Boris' charisma
    You would have been in the chorus calling for Thatcher's head before 1983. You have zero discernment in these matters. I do actually like your psephological approach, but it has limits, this is one.
    Despite the myth she's now become, Thatcher was pragmatic and had enough sense to do the tax cuts after had got inflation down and proven fiscal bona fides, not go on an additional borrowing spree at the worst time possible, predicated on your niche economic views being right and everyone else wrong, as well as getting a package of spending cuts and reforms through that's going to make austerity look like one of Oprah's audience giveaways.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,453

    ping said:

    Very funny.

    Very fucking funny, PB.

    1 month, 50% ROI. Would need one helluva polling error for Lula to lose;

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2022_Brazilian_presidential_election

    Surely the odds are wrong on this?

    Thanks for reminding me of this. I opened a Smarkets account specially to bet on Petro fir the Colombian election, doubling up when it became closer than I had expected. I am going in big on this one, and will give all my profits to help rainforest.
    Bolsanaro is going to make Trump look like a gracious loser. Lula looks value at 1.4.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 7,873
    edited October 1
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Incredible stuff in the big read from @ShippersUnbound tonight “Former ministers are openly discussing what would happen if Truss was ousted. “There would have to be a leader by acclamation,” one said. “And it would have to be Boris or Rishi. She’s finished already.”

    First thing Boris and Rishi have agreed on for a long time. Both laughing themselves silly over Truss' first few weeks as PM tonight
    Hopefully even you would realise that you can’t sack a PM for being lazy, dishonest, hypocritical and incompetent, and then bring him back as if nothing had happened.
    It was never as bad as this with Boris
    It's different. The issue with Boris was his dishonesty and pushing the limits of the constitution which was beyond the pale. Which is worse? I still think the former, but I appreciate why you might not agree. It is, I accept, a shambles and she is making a Tory win at the next election much less likely.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,242
    Carnyx said:

    The trouble with a coronation is how can you stop Johnson standing as an alternative to Sunak? So long as someone else stands it has to go to the members right? Of course there is no need to change party leader. If Truss loses the confidence of the house she will have to suggest someone who can form a government. The obvious answer is Sunak.

    Mm, that would involve admitting that the interests of the Conservative and Unionist Party are not congruent with those of the denizens of the United Kingdom.
    All parties make that assumption to some degree, it's how they can justify misleading and spinning and going against their purported ideologies, because if it means they stay in power that is good for the country. It's when parties have been in power too long, become desperate, and willing to inflict any damage on the public if it aids their narrow interests, that they can no longer tell the difference at all.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,242
    dixiedean said:

    The trouble with a coronation is how can you stop Johnson standing as an alternative to Sunak? So long as someone else stands it has to go to the members right? Of course there is no need to change party leader. If Truss loses the confidence of the house she will have to suggest someone who can form a government. The obvious answer is Sunak.

    She'd suggest Kwasi. Or JRM. Or Bone. Or Chope.
    And she'd suggest it with conviction, too.
    As per her economic policies, if she believes it it must be true.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 2,551
    HYUFD said:

    nico679 said:

    The trouble with a coronation is how can you stop Johnson standing as an alternative to Sunak? So long as someone else stands it has to go to the members right? Of course there is no need to change party leader. If Truss loses the confidence of the house she will have to suggest someone who can form a government. The obvious answer is Sunak.

    If it’s a coronation I’d expect Sunak to beat Johnson if that was the final two . I’d expect Johnson would lose to most candidates .

    Why would Tory MPs remove Truss to put in a discredited pathological liar who could still be found to have misled parliament .
    Johnson would beat Sunak with the membership, he would have beaten Truss with them two. If he got just 20 Tory MPs to nominate him he could go a members ballot with Sunak if nobody else ran
    It won’t get to the membership so that’s why Johnson loses .
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 104,916
    nico679 said:

    HYUFD said:

    nico679 said:

    The trouble with a coronation is how can you stop Johnson standing as an alternative to Sunak? So long as someone else stands it has to go to the members right? Of course there is no need to change party leader. If Truss loses the confidence of the house she will have to suggest someone who can form a government. The obvious answer is Sunak.

    If it’s a coronation I’d expect Sunak to beat Johnson if that was the final two . I’d expect Johnson would lose to most candidates .

    Why would Tory MPs remove Truss to put in a discredited pathological liar who could still be found to have misled parliament .
    Johnson would beat Sunak with the membership, he would have beaten Truss with them two. If he got just 20 Tory MPs to nominate him he could go a members ballot with Sunak if nobody else ran
    It won’t get to the membership so that’s why Johnson loses .
    It would only not go to the membership if no other candidate stood
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 55,032
    edited October 1
    HYUFD said:

    nico679 said:

    The trouble with a coronation is how can you stop Johnson standing as an alternative to Sunak? So long as someone else stands it has to go to the members right? Of course there is no need to change party leader. If Truss loses the confidence of the house she will have to suggest someone who can form a government. The obvious answer is Sunak.

    If it’s a coronation I’d expect Sunak to beat Johnson if that was the final two . I’d expect Johnson would lose to most candidates .

    Why would Tory MPs remove Truss to put in a discredited pathological liar who could still be found to have misled parliament .
    Johnson would beat Sunak with the membership, he would have beaten Truss with them too. If he got just 20 Tory MPs to nominate him he could go a members ballot with Sunak if nobody else ran.

    If Truss went before the next general election then Boris would now problem favourite to succeed her
    You never give up on Johnson do you

    Sunak is the one who has the respect to take over from Truss amongst the electorate, Boris does not
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 3,288

    My Finnish speaking brother is sitting next to me, combing Finnish twitter to finally unlock that “scandal” mentioned by Cicero a while ago.

    Nowt.

    I’m calling hevonpaska*

    *horseshit.

    Frankly, even if there were super hi-res photos out there of Truss, caught in flagrante with Kwarteng and Rees-Mogg in latex bondage gear, taking delivery of a large wheelbarrow full of cash, personally delivered by Vladimir Putin...

    Would the Tories be any lower in the polls?
    Would it be any worse than the billions they've already wiped off the economy?
    Would the current administration look any sleazier or more incompetent than they look now?
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 3,145
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Incredible stuff in the big read from @ShippersUnbound tonight “Former ministers are openly discussing what would happen if Truss was ousted. “There would have to be a leader by acclamation,” one said. “And it would have to be Boris or Rishi. She’s finished already.”

    First thing Boris and Rishi have agreed on for a long time. Both laughing themselves silly over Truss' first few weeks as PM tonight
    Hopefully even you would realise that you can’t sack a PM for being lazy, dishonest, hypocritical and incompetent, and then bring him back as if nothing had happened.
    It was never as bad as this with Boris
    Choosing between those two is kind of like being asked to pick between being both blinded and castrated, or only one of the two. You're going to go for the latter option, but it doesn't necessarily follow that this is to be welcomed.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 8,323
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Incredible stuff in the big read from @ShippersUnbound tonight “Former ministers are openly discussing what would happen if Truss was ousted. “There would have to be a leader by acclamation,” one said. “And it would have to be Boris or Rishi. She’s finished already.”

    First thing Boris and Rishi have agreed on for a long time. Both laughing themselves silly over Truss' first few weeks as PM tonight
    Hopefully even you would realise that you can’t sack a PM for being lazy, dishonest, hypocritical and incompetent, and then bring him back as if nothing had happened.
    It was never as bad as this with Boris
    You should really be aiming for better than not “as bad”.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 104,916
    Home Secretary promises to crack down on channel migration, cut immigration and take on woke cops and return to old school policing
    https://twitter.com/kateferguson4/status/1576291902558597121?s=20&t=mPJkc9u07_h2OAApKHT1OQ
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 2,551
    HYUFD said:

    nico679 said:

    HYUFD said:

    nico679 said:

    The trouble with a coronation is how can you stop Johnson standing as an alternative to Sunak? So long as someone else stands it has to go to the members right? Of course there is no need to change party leader. If Truss loses the confidence of the house she will have to suggest someone who can form a government. The obvious answer is Sunak.

    If it’s a coronation I’d expect Sunak to beat Johnson if that was the final two . I’d expect Johnson would lose to most candidates .

    Why would Tory MPs remove Truss to put in a discredited pathological liar who could still be found to have misled parliament .
    Johnson would beat Sunak with the membership, he would have beaten Truss with them two. If he got just 20 Tory MPs to nominate him he could go a members ballot with Sunak if nobody else ran
    It won’t get to the membership so that’s why Johnson loses .
    It would only not go to the membership if no other candidate stood
    The 1922 can change the rules to make it a coronation . And there’s no way the public will accept a power vacuum for weeks as the Tories embark on another leadership contest .
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 27,917
    edited October 1
    HYUFD said:

    Home Secretary promises to crack down on channel migration, cut immigration and take on woke cops and return to old school policing
    https://twitter.com/kateferguson4/status/1576291902558597121?s=20&t=mPJkc9u07_h2OAApKHT1OQ

    Any mention of the RNLI being a subversive and hostile NGO?

    And will the cops be able to beat up anyone they like? Edit: or rather, don't like?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,242
    HYUFD said:

    Home Secretary promises to crack down on channel migration, cut immigration and take on woke cops and return to old school policing
    https://twitter.com/kateferguson4/status/1576291902558597121?s=20&t=mPJkc9u07_h2OAApKHT1OQ

    Her predecessors kept failing with the first two, maybe she should give up and focus on the last two.

    Though I don't know what 'return to old school policing' means. I'd say we need to keep a focus on new school policing on things like digital crime, but just generally raise standards across the board, from investigative procedure, prioritisation, understanding of the law and so on.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,112
    HYUFD said:

    Home Secretary promises to crack down on channel migration, cut immigration and take on woke cops and return to old school policing
    https://twitter.com/kateferguson4/status/1576291902558597121?s=20&t=mPJkc9u07_h2OAApKHT1OQ

    Turns out Suella's real name is actually Sue-Ellen.

    She is named after the lead character in the soap Dallas - Sue Ellen Ewing. Her mum was a Dallas superfan.

    🤠🤠🤠

    https://twitter.com/kateferguson4/status/1576292877352972288
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 104,916
    edited October 1

    HYUFD said:

    nico679 said:

    The trouble with a coronation is how can you stop Johnson standing as an alternative to Sunak? So long as someone else stands it has to go to the members right? Of course there is no need to change party leader. If Truss loses the confidence of the house she will have to suggest someone who can form a government. The obvious answer is Sunak.

    If it’s a coronation I’d expect Sunak to beat Johnson if that was the final two . I’d expect Johnson would lose to most candidates .

    Why would Tory MPs remove Truss to put in a discredited pathological liar who could still be found to have misled parliament .
    Johnson would beat Sunak with the membership, he would have beaten Truss with them too. If he got just 20 Tory MPs to nominate him he could go a members ballot with Sunak if nobody else ran.

    If Truss went before the next general election then Boris would now problem favourite to succeed her
    You never give up on Johnson do you

    Sunak is the one who has the respect to take over from Truss amongst the electorate, Boris does not
    Amongst 2019 Tory voters, 33% wanted Boris back as PM to 26% for Truss and 24% for Sunak with Deltapoll

    https://www.mailplus.co.uk/news/204869/sunak-loses-to-truss-in-mos-leadership-poll-but-boris-would-beat-both
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    Further to the sham annexations, I gather that the Russians are not precise as to their exact borders.
    So maybe the Ukraine might offer a compromise of one square metre in each region---just large enough to put up a statue, let's say, of Putin. After all, he's not very big.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 6,775
     
    HYUFD said:

    nico679 said:

    The trouble with a coronation is how can you stop Johnson standing as an alternative to Sunak? So long as someone else stands it has to go to the members right? Of course there is no need to change party leader. If Truss loses the confidence of the house she will have to suggest someone who can form a government. The obvious answer is Sunak.

    If it’s a coronation I’d expect Sunak to beat Johnson if that was the final two . I’d expect Johnson would lose to most candidates .

    Why would Tory MPs remove Truss to put in a discredited pathological liar who could still be found to have misled parliament .
    Johnson would beat Sunak with the membership, he would have beaten Truss with them too. If he got just 20 Tory MPs to nominate him he could go a members ballot with Sunak if nobody else ran.

    If Truss went before the next general election then Boris would now probably be favourite to succeed her
    Sins wiped clean by 40 days in the wilderness

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 42,742
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Incredible stuff in the big read from @ShippersUnbound tonight “Former ministers are openly discussing what would happen if Truss was ousted. “There would have to be a leader by acclamation,” one said. “And it would have to be Boris or Rishi. She’s finished already.”

    First thing Boris and Rishi have agreed on for a long time. Both laughing themselves silly over Truss' first few weeks as PM tonight
    Hopefully even you would realise that you can’t sack a PM for being lazy, dishonest, hypocritical and incompetent, and then bring him back as if nothing had happened.
    It was never as bad as this with Boris
    But it easily could be. His credibility, such as it is, would last as long as it took to reach the next scandal or gaffe. Notwithstanding the various investigations to which he is still subject.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 2,551
    HYUFD said:

    Home Secretary promises to crack down on channel migration, cut immigration and take on woke cops and return to old school policing
    https://twitter.com/kateferguson4/status/1576291902558597121?s=20&t=mPJkc9u07_h2OAApKHT1OQ

    We’ve heard it all before . Starting a war on supposed woke was last years fish and chip paper. The public aren’t going to fall for these diversionary tactics designed to deflect from the Truss and Kwarteng mess .
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 55,032
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    nico679 said:

    The trouble with a coronation is how can you stop Johnson standing as an alternative to Sunak? So long as someone else stands it has to go to the members right? Of course there is no need to change party leader. If Truss loses the confidence of the house she will have to suggest someone who can form a government. The obvious answer is Sunak.

    If it’s a coronation I’d expect Sunak to beat Johnson if that was the final two . I’d expect Johnson would lose to most candidates .

    Why would Tory MPs remove Truss to put in a discredited pathological liar who could still be found to have misled parliament .
    Johnson would beat Sunak with the membership, he would have beaten Truss with them too. If he got just 20 Tory MPs to nominate him he could go a members ballot with Sunak if nobody else ran.

    If Truss went before the next general election then Boris would now problem favourite to succeed her
    You never give up on Johnson do you

    Sunak is the one who has the respect to take over from Truss amongst the electorate, Boris does not
    Amongst 2019 Tory voters, 33% wanted Boris back as PM to 26,% for Truss and 24% for Sunak with Deltapoll

    https://www.mailplus.co.uk/news/204869/sunak-loses-to-truss-in-mos-leadership-poll-but-boris-would-beat-both
    If follows 67% do not want him back
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 27,917

    HYUFD said:

    nico679 said:

    The trouble with a coronation is how can you stop Johnson standing as an alternative to Sunak? So long as someone else stands it has to go to the members right? Of course there is no need to change party leader. If Truss loses the confidence of the house she will have to suggest someone who can form a government. The obvious answer is Sunak.

    If it’s a coronation I’d expect Sunak to beat Johnson if that was the final two . I’d expect Johnson would lose to most candidates .

    Why would Tory MPs remove Truss to put in a discredited pathological liar who could still be found to have misled parliament .
    Johnson would beat Sunak with the membership, he would have beaten Truss with them too. If he got just 20 Tory MPs to nominate him he could go a members ballot with Sunak if nobody else ran.

    If Truss went before the next general election then Boris would now problem favourite to succeed her
    You never give up on Johnson do you

    Sunak is the one who has the respect to take over from Truss amongst the electorate, Boris does not
    Er, the electorate doesn;'t count, as HYUFD always reminds us. Only the Inner Party, then the Outer Party and the Tory voters.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 104,916
    nico679 said:

    HYUFD said:

    nico679 said:

    HYUFD said:

    nico679 said:

    The trouble with a coronation is how can you stop Johnson standing as an alternative to Sunak? So long as someone else stands it has to go to the members right? Of course there is no need to change party leader. If Truss loses the confidence of the house she will have to suggest someone who can form a government. The obvious answer is Sunak.

    If it’s a coronation I’d expect Sunak to beat Johnson if that was the final two . I’d expect Johnson would lose to most candidates .

    Why would Tory MPs remove Truss to put in a discredited pathological liar who could still be found to have misled parliament .
    Johnson would beat Sunak with the membership, he would have beaten Truss with them two. If he got just 20 Tory MPs to nominate him he could go a members ballot with Sunak if nobody else ran
    It won’t get to the membership so that’s why Johnson loses .
    It would only not go to the membership if no other candidate stood
    The 1922 can change the rules to make it a coronation . And there’s no way the public will accept a power vacuum for weeks as the Tories embark on another leadership contest .
    How? Unless they said 51% of Tory MPs backing you in the final round makes you elected with no further membership vote
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 27,917
    geoffw said:

     

    HYUFD said:

    nico679 said:

    The trouble with a coronation is how can you stop Johnson standing as an alternative to Sunak? So long as someone else stands it has to go to the members right? Of course there is no need to change party leader. If Truss loses the confidence of the house she will have to suggest someone who can form a government. The obvious answer is Sunak.

    If it’s a coronation I’d expect Sunak to beat Johnson if that was the final two . I’d expect Johnson would lose to most candidates .

    Why would Tory MPs remove Truss to put in a discredited pathological liar who could still be found to have misled parliament .
    Johnson would beat Sunak with the membership, he would have beaten Truss with them too. If he got just 20 Tory MPs to nominate him he could go a members ballot with Sunak if nobody else ran.

    If Truss went before the next general election then Boris would now probably be favourite to succeed her
    Sins wiped clean by 40 days in the wilderness

    https://www.liverpoolmuseums.org.uk/artifact/scapegoat
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 17,631
    We could end up in a situation where Tory MPs keep VONCing leaders they don't want, only for a minority of them to put the previous arsehole back into the final two. The membership then chooses the undesirable candidate ahead of the sensible option.

    Repeat and repeat again. Bozo-Truss-Bozo-Truss-Mogg (just for a change).
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 42,742
    HYUFD said:

    nico679 said:

    HYUFD said:

    nico679 said:

    HYUFD said:

    nico679 said:

    The trouble with a coronation is how can you stop Johnson standing as an alternative to Sunak? So long as someone else stands it has to go to the members right? Of course there is no need to change party leader. If Truss loses the confidence of the house she will have to suggest someone who can form a government. The obvious answer is Sunak.

    If it’s a coronation I’d expect Sunak to beat Johnson if that was the final two . I’d expect Johnson would lose to most candidates .

    Why would Tory MPs remove Truss to put in a discredited pathological liar who could still be found to have misled parliament .
    Johnson would beat Sunak with the membership, he would have beaten Truss with them two. If he got just 20 Tory MPs to nominate him he could go a members ballot with Sunak if nobody else ran
    It won’t get to the membership so that’s why Johnson loses .
    It would only not go to the membership if no other candidate stood
    The 1922 can change the rules to make it a coronation . And there’s no way the public will accept a power vacuum for weeks as the Tories embark on another leadership contest .
    How? Unless they said 51% of Tory MPs backing you in the final round makes you elected with no further membership vote
    Public opinion would never stand for another leadership election, and certainly not if the only reason for having it is to allow a discredited and dishonest PM to have a second shot.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 1,485
    kyf_100 said:

    My Finnish speaking brother is sitting next to me, combing Finnish twitter to finally unlock that “scandal” mentioned by Cicero a while ago.

    Nowt.

    I’m calling hevonpaska*

    *horseshit.

    Frankly, even if there were super hi-res photos out there of Truss, caught in flagrante with Kwarteng and Rees-Mogg in latex bondage gear, taking delivery of a large wheelbarrow full of cash, personally delivered by Vladimir Putin...

    Would the Tories be any lower in the polls?
    Would it be any worse than the billions they've already wiped off the economy?
    Would the current administration look any sleazier or more incompetent than they look now?
    FWIW Twitter would be the last place that I would expect to find confirmation of this kind of story. Without being pompous I simply can´t discuss it, but I certainly believe it to be true and the consequences of disclosure would be significant. It remains to be seen if this emerges "beyond reasonable doubt". Unless and until it does, I expect to be be ribbed a bit because I will not be independently disclosing the story myself unless the corroboration is released.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 24,297
    This Tory Conference is going to be fascinating.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,112
    Three-quarters of UK voters, including a staggering 71% of those who backed the Conservatives at the last general election, believe the prime minister, Liz Truss, and the chancellor, Kwasi Kwarteng, have “lost control” of the economy, according to a devastating poll for the Observer on the eve of the Tory conference.

    The survey by Opinium – which also reveals that Labour has extended its lead by a massive 14 percentage points in the last week alone, from 5 points to 19 points, and that Truss’s ratings are now lower than Boris Johnson’s at the height of the Partygate scandal – comes as some Tory MPs are beginning to demand the new prime minister’s removal from No 10 after less than a month in office.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 104,916
    Scott_xP said:

    Three-quarters of UK voters, including a staggering 71% of those who backed the Conservatives at the last general election, believe the prime minister, Liz Truss, and the chancellor, Kwasi Kwarteng, have “lost control” of the economy, according to a devastating poll for the Observer on the eve of the Tory conference.

    The survey by Opinium – which also reveals that Labour has extended its lead by a massive 14 percentage points in the last week alone, from 5 points to 19 points, and that Truss’s ratings are now lower than Boris Johnson’s at the height of the Partygate scandal – comes as some Tory MPs are beginning to demand the new prime minister’s removal from No 10 after less than a month in office.

    So Liz already more unpopular than Boris at his lowest point and she has been PM less than a month!
  • Scott_xP said:

    “After the reception on Friday, at least two prominent hedge fund bosses told City associates that Kwarteng was “a useful idiot”. A senior Tory who advises business leaders said the phrase was in widespread circulation.”. https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/kwasi-kwartengs-budget-day-cocktail-party-with-financiers-who-profited-from-crash-kwdbs72g0

    Ouch!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,003
    .

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I’ve struck a bet with a friend.

    Tories to poll 15% or lower with a BPC registered pollster in a GB wide Westminster poll before the locals.

    It won't take that long:
    1. Conference will be a catastrofuck. TK unable to do human things like speak or display empathy
    2. Another market crisis certain. Can kicked down road, not removed.
    3. The "lets slash public services" plan is to come

    Never mind the egregious damage to the party, this is doing similarly fatal damage to our electoral system. There is no mandate for this. None. Yet they parade "we have a majority of 80" at the press. Expect a push to replace FPTP.
    It will be v interesting to see how much liquidity BoE swamps the markets with during Truss's Wednesday speech.

    In no way do I excuse the idiotic behaviour of Kwarteng and Truss but tonight analysts are saying the Eurozone is at risk on the same scale as the crisis they suffered a decade ago amid surging inflation and aggressive interest rates worldwide

    Analysts say the eurozone is at risk from the same chaos that struck the UK

    In view of everything happening it is hardly surprising that the UK will not be the only country facing a crises of confidence in its government but Kwarteng and Truss are in a league of their own

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/10/01/eurozone-risk-financial-meltdown-market-chaos-spreads/
    I never thought much of Kwarteng, but Truss has the makings of a truly great PM, and I don't think we realise how lucky we are.
    She might outlast Douglas Home, if she makes as 'great' a PM as Brown and May I think that would be a relative triumph for her given her current position
    The woman has balls of steel. She does not give a fuck whether she's talking to HMK, Joe Biden, the IMF, Radio Tees, the parliamentary Tory party (aka a bunch of pathetic twats), or Nick Ferari. She is the same with everyone. She means what she says and the says what she means. That just does not happen, and of course, PB doesn't get it, the stupider the PBer, the less they get it.
    Truss is as ideological and rigid in her libertarian, small state views as Corbyn was in his socialism yes. However she lacks even the charisma Corbyn had to express them, let alone Boris' charisma
    You would have been in the chorus calling for Thatcher's head before 1983. You have zero discernment in these matters. I do actually like your psephological approach, but it has limits, this is one.
    Plenty of us were old enough to be around at the time.
    The comparison is absurd.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 27,917
    edited October 1

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Home Secretary promises to crack down on channel migration, cut immigration and take on woke cops and return to old school policing
    https://twitter.com/kateferguson4/status/1576291902558597121?s=20&t=mPJkc9u07_h2OAApKHT1OQ

    Any mention of the RNLI being a subversive and hostile NGO?

    And will the cops be able to beat up anyone they like? Edit: or rather, don't like?
    On the RNLI, I understand our son is to feature on a rescue he was involved in on the 'saving lives at sea' series on BBC 2 sometime this month
    Excellent. Congratulations, and my entire respect, to him and his colleagues on the crew, and the support team on shore.

    PS: membership just renewed (but it's automatic anyway, so I don't need to think.)
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,112
    Labour 46%
    Con 27%

    Opinium
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 17,631
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    nico679 said:

    The trouble with a coronation is how can you stop Johnson standing as an alternative to Sunak? So long as someone else stands it has to go to the members right? Of course there is no need to change party leader. If Truss loses the confidence of the house she will have to suggest someone who can form a government. The obvious answer is Sunak.

    If it’s a coronation I’d expect Sunak to beat Johnson if that was the final two . I’d expect Johnson would lose to most candidates .

    Why would Tory MPs remove Truss to put in a discredited pathological liar who could still be found to have misled parliament .
    Johnson would beat Sunak with the membership, he would have beaten Truss with them too. If he got just 20 Tory MPs to nominate him he could go a members ballot with Sunak if nobody else ran.

    If Truss went before the next general election then Boris would now problem favourite to succeed her
    You never give up on Johnson do you

    Sunak is the one who has the respect to take over from Truss amongst the electorate, Boris does not
    Amongst 2019 Tory voters, 33% wanted Boris back as PM to 26% for Truss and 24% for Sunak with Deltapoll

    https://www.mailplus.co.uk/news/204869/sunak-loses-to-truss-in-mos-leadership-poll-but-boris-would-beat-both
    33% Bozo.
    50% Not Bozo.

    They didn't want the lying clown.
  • Opinium is going to be a car crash.

    15 point lead I reckon

    Possibly 10 - or a Con lead of 1 just to really annoy a certain someone
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,242
    nico679 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Home Secretary promises to crack down on channel migration, cut immigration and take on woke cops and return to old school policing
    https://twitter.com/kateferguson4/status/1576291902558597121?s=20&t=mPJkc9u07_h2OAApKHT1OQ

    We’ve heard it all before . Starting a war on supposed woke was last years fish and chip paper. The public aren’t going to fall for these diversionary tactics designed to deflect from the Truss and Kwarteng mess .
    I can get on board with some of it. People might go 'That makes total sense, well done', but it wouldn't change their vote one bit if they think the Tories are incapable of governing and directly escalated economic catastrophe because they wanted to play around with student politics level thinking.

    Especially if they do not fear what Keir Starmer might do.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 27,917

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    nico679 said:

    The trouble with a coronation is how can you stop Johnson standing as an alternative to Sunak? So long as someone else stands it has to go to the members right? Of course there is no need to change party leader. If Truss loses the confidence of the house she will have to suggest someone who can form a government. The obvious answer is Sunak.

    If it’s a coronation I’d expect Sunak to beat Johnson if that was the final two . I’d expect Johnson would lose to most candidates .

    Why would Tory MPs remove Truss to put in a discredited pathological liar who could still be found to have misled parliament .
    Johnson would beat Sunak with the membership, he would have beaten Truss with them too. If he got just 20 Tory MPs to nominate him he could go a members ballot with Sunak if nobody else ran.

    If Truss went before the next general election then Boris would now problem favourite to succeed her
    You never give up on Johnson do you

    Sunak is the one who has the respect to take over from Truss amongst the electorate, Boris does not
    Amongst 2019 Tory voters, 33% wanted Boris back as PM to 26% for Truss and 24% for Sunak with Deltapoll

    https://www.mailplus.co.uk/news/204869/sunak-loses-to-truss-in-mos-leadership-poll-but-boris-would-beat-both
    33% Bozo.
    50% Not Bozo.

    They didn't want the lying clown.
    Yet he'd win a straight vote ...
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 2,551
    That Opinium is a shocker given it was Truss and Kwartengs liferaft and least likely to show a huge lead for Labour.

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 42,742
    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Three-quarters of UK voters, including a staggering 71% of those who backed the Conservatives at the last general election, believe the prime minister, Liz Truss, and the chancellor, Kwasi Kwarteng, have “lost control” of the economy, according to a devastating poll for the Observer on the eve of the Tory conference.

    The survey by Opinium – which also reveals that Labour has extended its lead by a massive 14 percentage points in the last week alone, from 5 points to 19 points, and that Truss’s ratings are now lower than Boris Johnson’s at the height of the Partygate scandal – comes as some Tory MPs are beginning to demand the new prime minister’s removal from No 10 after less than a month in office.

    So Liz already more unpopular than Boris at his lowest point and she has been PM less than a month!
    So what were the idiot MPs who put her into the final two actually thinking?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 23,635
    edited October 1
    Scott_xP said:

    Labour 46%
    Con 27%

    Opinium

    So a 15% change from the beginning of September?

    That's some bounce...

    Oh.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,112
    Tory MPs openly discussed all options last week in the face of record-low poll ratings, including a mass walkout of ministers or the suspension of party rules to remove Truss. Many MPs are waiting for MPs to return after the political conference season before considering their next move.

    One former cabinet minister said: “It’s a matter of when she goes and we, the parliamentary party, need to seriously work on getting rid of her as soon as possible. That gives us more time before the next general election to forget this awful episode.”
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 42,934
    nico679 said:

    That Opinium is a shocker given it was Truss and Kwartengs liferaft and least likely to show a huge lead for Labour.

    Less than 20% is within the margin of catastrophic error. It's all to play for.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,242
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    nico679 said:

    HYUFD said:

    nico679 said:

    HYUFD said:

    nico679 said:

    The trouble with a coronation is how can you stop Johnson standing as an alternative to Sunak? So long as someone else stands it has to go to the members right? Of course there is no need to change party leader. If Truss loses the confidence of the house she will have to suggest someone who can form a government. The obvious answer is Sunak.

    If it’s a coronation I’d expect Sunak to beat Johnson if that was the final two . I’d expect Johnson would lose to most candidates .

    Why would Tory MPs remove Truss to put in a discredited pathological liar who could still be found to have misled parliament .
    Johnson would beat Sunak with the membership, he would have beaten Truss with them two. If he got just 20 Tory MPs to nominate him he could go a members ballot with Sunak if nobody else ran
    It won’t get to the membership so that’s why Johnson loses .
    It would only not go to the membership if no other candidate stood
    The 1922 can change the rules to make it a coronation . And there’s no way the public will accept a power vacuum for weeks as the Tories embark on another leadership contest .
    How? Unless they said 51% of Tory MPs backing you in the final round makes you elected with no further membership vote
    Public opinion would never stand for another leadership election, and certainly not if the only reason for having it is to allow a discredited and dishonest PM to have a second shot.
    That's why the 1922 would have to change the rules. But I cannot see that happening either, and its another reason why Truss is going nowhere - removing her will not restore their reputation for competence.

    They need to change course, rein her in, but they aren't going to oust someone who's only been there a month or a few months.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 42,742

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Home Secretary promises to crack down on channel migration, cut immigration and take on woke cops and return to old school policing
    https://twitter.com/kateferguson4/status/1576291902558597121?s=20&t=mPJkc9u07_h2OAApKHT1OQ

    Any mention of the RNLI being a subversive and hostile NGO?

    And will the cops be able to beat up anyone they like? Edit: or rather, don't like?
    On the RNLI, I understand our son is to feature on a rescue he was involved in on the 'saving lives at sea' series on BBC 2 sometime this month
    Excellent.

    The RNLI live by the sea,
    and out went old Jock
    for a breath of fresh air.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 19,551
    edited October 1
    Scott_xP said:

    Incredible stuff in the big read from @ShippersUnbound tonight “Former ministers are openly discussing what would happen if Truss was ousted. “There would have to be a leader by acclamation,” one said. “And it would have to be Boris or Rishi. She’s finished already.”

    I thought it would more like October 2024 when they'd be considering bringing back Boris lol!
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 30,018
    Toms said:

    Further to the sham annexations, I gather that the Russians are not precise as to their exact borders.
    So maybe the Ukraine might offer a compromise of one square metre in each region---just large enough to put up a statue, let's say, of Putin. After all, he's not very big.

    I think the precedent is offering 6 feet of earth. Or 7 feet for giants.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 23,635

    nico679 said:

    That Opinium is a shocker given it was Truss and Kwartengs liferaft and least likely to show a huge lead for Labour.

    Less than 20% is within the margin of catastrophic error. It's all to play for.
    'Tis but a scratch.
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 2,980
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    I’ve struck a bet with a friend.

    Tories to poll 15% or lower with a BPC registered pollster in a GB wide Westminster poll before the locals.

    It won't take that long:
    1. Conference will be a catastrofuck. TK unable to do human things like speak or display empathy
    2. Another market crisis certain. Can kicked down road, not removed.
    3. The "lets slash public services" plan is to come

    Never mind the egregious damage to the party, this is doing similarly fatal damage to our electoral system. There is no mandate for this. None. Yet they parade "we have a majority of 80" at the press. Expect a push to replace FPTP.
    It will be v interesting to see how much liquidity BoE swamps the markets with during Truss's Wednesday speech.

    In no way do I excuse the idiotic behaviour of Kwarteng and Truss but tonight analysts are saying the Eurozone is at risk on the same scale as the crisis they suffered a decade ago amid surging inflation and aggressive interest rates worldwide

    Analysts say the eurozone is at risk from the same chaos that struck the UK

    In view of everything happening it is hardly surprising that the UK will not be the only country facing a crises of confidence in its government but Kwarteng and Truss are in a league of their own

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/10/01/eurozone-risk-financial-meltdown-market-chaos-spreads/
    I never thought much of Kwarteng, but Truss has the makings of a truly great PM, and I don't think we realise how lucky we are.
    She might outlast Douglas Home, if she makes as 'great' a PM as Brown and May I think that would be a relative triumph for her given her current position
    The woman has balls of steel. She does not give a fuck whether she's talking to HMK, Joe Biden, the IMF, Radio Tees, the parliamentary Tory party (aka a bunch of pathetic twats), or Nick Ferari. She is the same with everyone. She means what she says and the says what she means. That just does not happen, and of course, PB doesn't get it, the stupider the PBer, the less they get it.
    Yes but.
    What she says is nonsense.
    What has that got to do with anything?
    Everything.
    Talking shit is every politician, everywhere, all the time. What do you think comes out of Nicola's gob, Rosebuds?

    The conviction IS what matters, the TRUTH IS what matters, the bravery Is what matters. Would Nicola stand up to America? Fuck off would she.
    And you are obviousy completely ignorant of SNP attitudes to TTIP and to the UKG attempt to open up the health services to the US commercial firms.
    The SNP are quite happy to have Scottish NHS money spent with US commercial health firms.
    https://www.bmj.com/content/378/bmj.o1735#:~:text=Mesh implants were designed to,pain, inflammation, and infection.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 2,551

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Home Secretary promises to crack down on channel migration, cut immigration and take on woke cops and return to old school policing
    https://twitter.com/kateferguson4/status/1576291902558597121?s=20&t=mPJkc9u07_h2OAApKHT1OQ

    Any mention of the RNLI being a subversive and hostile NGO?

    And will the cops be able to beat up anyone they like? Edit: or rather, don't like?
    On the RNLI, I understand our son is to feature on a rescue he was involved in on the 'saving lives at sea' series on BBC 2 sometime this month
    I didn’t realize your son was with the RNLI. I’m sure I speak for everyone here by saying that’s amazing , what a hero . I can’t begin to tell you just how much in awe I am of the RNLI and all those who help to save lives .
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478

    Toms said:

    Further to the sham annexations, I gather that the Russians are not precise as to their exact borders.
    So maybe the Ukraine might offer a compromise of one square metre in each region---just large enough to put up a statue, let's say, of Putin. After all, he's not very big.

    I think the precedent is offering 6 feet of earth. Or 7 feet for giants.
    Yes, an oblong would be fine.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 104,916
    Scott_xP said:

    Labour 46%
    Con 27%

    Opinium

    So Truss heading for a worse defeat even than Major in 1997 and a lower share of the vote than even the Duke of Wellington got in 1832
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 42,934
    Scott_xP said:

    Incredible stuff in the big read from @ShippersUnbound tonight “Former ministers are openly discussing what would happen if Truss was ousted. “There would have to be a leader by acclamation,” one said. “And it would have to be Boris or Rishi. She’s finished already.”

    Boris could effectively veto Rishi, so that narrows it down to a list of one.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,242
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Three-quarters of UK voters, including a staggering 71% of those who backed the Conservatives at the last general election, believe the prime minister, Liz Truss, and the chancellor, Kwasi Kwarteng, have “lost control” of the economy, according to a devastating poll for the Observer on the eve of the Tory conference.

    The survey by Opinium – which also reveals that Labour has extended its lead by a massive 14 percentage points in the last week alone, from 5 points to 19 points, and that Truss’s ratings are now lower than Boris Johnson’s at the height of the Partygate scandal – comes as some Tory MPs are beginning to demand the new prime minister’s removal from No 10 after less than a month in office.

    So Liz already more unpopular than Boris at his lowest point and she has been PM less than a month!
    So what were the idiot MPs who put her into the final two actually thinking?
    That she would beat Sunak, the remainer traitor (who voted Leave), incoming PMs whilst a party is in office are usually holders of a Great Office of State so her experience was a plus compared to others, and she was offering the most juicy tax cuts for their rich mates.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,112
    NEW: The @LibDems have called for an official inquiry into the Chancellor toasting his mini-budget with bankers.

    "While struggling homeowners saw their mortgage bills spiral it seems the Chancellor was sipping champagne with hedge fund managers profiting from the falling pound."

    https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1576299941747576835
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 104,916
    edited October 1
    Camilla not to have Ladies in Waiting, quite a sacrifice from the Queen Consort

    https://twitter.com/RE_DailyMail/status/1576094604335919104?s=20&t=mPJkc9u07_h2OAApKHT1OQ
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 4,846
    tlg86 said:
    Pathetic
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,210

    ydoethur said:

    Kwasi on the other hand.


    Do they never learn?
    Trinity Hall people are thick as mince.
    Oh, go shove a pineapple-topped pizza up your arse, ideally with the pineapple still intact.

    I will concede we probably do have a greater than average number of thickos, but that’s par for the course for a college which is so good at rowing.

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 27,917

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    I’ve struck a bet with a friend.

    Tories to poll 15% or lower with a BPC registered pollster in a GB wide Westminster poll before the locals.

    It won't take that long:
    1. Conference will be a catastrofuck. TK unable to do human things like speak or display empathy
    2. Another market crisis certain. Can kicked down road, not removed.
    3. The "lets slash public services" plan is to come

    Never mind the egregious damage to the party, this is doing similarly fatal damage to our electoral system. There is no mandate for this. None. Yet they parade "we have a majority of 80" at the press. Expect a push to replace FPTP.
    It will be v interesting to see how much liquidity BoE swamps the markets with during Truss's Wednesday speech.

    In no way do I excuse the idiotic behaviour of Kwarteng and Truss but tonight analysts are saying the Eurozone is at risk on the same scale as the crisis they suffered a decade ago amid surging inflation and aggressive interest rates worldwide

    Analysts say the eurozone is at risk from the same chaos that struck the UK

    In view of everything happening it is hardly surprising that the UK will not be the only country facing a crises of confidence in its government but Kwarteng and Truss are in a league of their own

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/10/01/eurozone-risk-financial-meltdown-market-chaos-spreads/
    I never thought much of Kwarteng, but Truss has the makings of a truly great PM, and I don't think we realise how lucky we are.
    She might outlast Douglas Home, if she makes as 'great' a PM as Brown and May I think that would be a relative triumph for her given her current position
    The woman has balls of steel. She does not give a fuck whether she's talking to HMK, Joe Biden, the IMF, Radio Tees, the parliamentary Tory party (aka a bunch of pathetic twats), or Nick Ferari. She is the same with everyone. She means what she says and the says what she means. That just does not happen, and of course, PB doesn't get it, the stupider the PBer, the less they get it.
    Yes but.
    What she says is nonsense.
    What has that got to do with anything?
    Everything.
    Talking shit is every politician, everywhere, all the time. What do you think comes out of Nicola's gob, Rosebuds?

    The conviction IS what matters, the TRUTH IS what matters, the bravery Is what matters. Would Nicola stand up to America? Fuck off would she.
    And you are obviousy completely ignorant of SNP attitudes to TTIP and to the UKG attempt to open up the health services to the US commercial firms.
    The SNP are quite happy to have Scottish NHS money spent with US commercial health firms.
    https://www.bmj.com/content/378/bmj.o1735#:~:text=Mesh implants were designed to,pain, inflammation, and infection.
    Quite. But sending people to specialists is a different matter to having the entire health service sold out. Health has always been a mixed economy, with pharmacists and GPs. I've had relatives sent to a private hospital in Glasgow for simple operations rather than delay unduly.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 2,148
    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Three-quarters of UK voters, including a staggering 71% of those who backed the Conservatives at the last general election, believe the prime minister, Liz Truss, and the chancellor, Kwasi Kwarteng, have “lost control” of the economy, according to a devastating poll for the Observer on the eve of the Tory conference.

    The survey by Opinium – which also reveals that Labour has extended its lead by a massive 14 percentage points in the last week alone, from 5 points to 19 points, and that Truss’s ratings are now lower than Boris Johnson’s at the height of the Partygate scandal – comes as some Tory MPs are beginning to demand the new prime minister’s removal from No 10 after less than a month in office.

    So Liz already more unpopular than Boris at his lowest point and she has been PM less than a month!
    And that’s before her new PM bounce wears off.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 23,635

    Scott_xP said:

    Incredible stuff in the big read from @ShippersUnbound tonight “Former ministers are openly discussing what would happen if Truss was ousted. “There would have to be a leader by acclamation,” one said. “And it would have to be Boris or Rishi. She’s finished already.”

    Boris could effectively veto Rishi, so that narrows it down to a list of one.
    How?
  • Opinium with built in swing back suggests Labour landslide
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 21,493

    "sales of woodburning stoves soared by 40 per cent. Now, it has emerged that chainsaws have seen a surge in demand – to cut wood for the stoves."

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11268825/Chainsaw-sales-soar-Brits-buy-35-000-woodburners-three-months.html

    Edit: Of course if you cut wood now it is no good for this season, unless you are cutting already dead trees and branches. Has to be seasoned first.

    We enquired a month ago about getting our open fire replaced by a stove. Order book so full that "Macrch onwards" was quoted. Its ok. I have a sheep's wool tampon bunging up the chimney when not in use, and two trees worth of wood stored in the garage since February for burning. Enough logs already chainsawed (I have two...) for this winter.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,112
    The good news for Liz is she has a plausible excuse to sack the useful idiot and save her job

    but she won't...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 104,916

    Scott_xP said:

    Incredible stuff in the big read from @ShippersUnbound tonight “Former ministers are openly discussing what would happen if Truss was ousted. “There would have to be a leader by acclamation,” one said. “And it would have to be Boris or Rishi. She’s finished already.”

    Boris could effectively veto Rishi, so that narrows it down to a list of one.
    Boris will wait though, until enough Tory MPs in marginal seats heading for defeat are kissing his feet begging for him to return before he considers it
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 17,631
    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Labour 46%
    Con 27%

    Opinium

    So Truss heading for a worse defeat even than Major in 1997 and a lower share of the vote than even the Duke of Wellington got in 1832
    Fingers crossed!

    I agree with your assessment of Labour most seats but no overall majority. With some degree of dead cat bounce to the Tories and without an SNP implosion I just don't see where we could make enough gains.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,112
    The latest Opinium poll in tomorrow’s Observer puts Labour on a 19-point lead. And (not in this article but in the tables) it puts Labour on an ELEVEN point lead over the Tories on *immigration*. Which shows how bad things are for Truss.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/oct/01/voters-abandon-tories-as-faith-in-economic-competence-dives?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 2,551
    Scott_xP said:

    NEW: The @LibDems have called for an official inquiry into the Chancellor toasting his mini-budget with bankers.

    "While struggling homeowners saw their mortgage bills spiral it seems the Chancellor was sipping champagne with hedge fund managers profiting from the falling pound."

    https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1576299941747576835

    If I was Kwarteng I’d go out in disguise . If that type of headline is in tomorrows papers the pubic anger is going to be huge .
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 6,775

    Scott_xP said:

    Incredible stuff in the big read from @ShippersUnbound tonight “Former ministers are openly discussing what would happen if Truss was ousted. “There would have to be a leader by acclamation,” one said. “And it would have to be Boris or Rishi. She’s finished already.”

    Boris could effectively veto Rishi, so that narrows it down to a list of one.
    How?
    Doh!

  • pingping Posts: 3,177
    Chinese owner of British Steel wants UK government bailout;

    https://www.ft.com/content/d1c7b7df-ce5a-4b9b-9d8b-4952ee1af842
  • Opinium is going to be a car crash.

    15 point lead I reckon

    Possibly 10 - or a Con lead of 1 just to really annoy a certain someone
    Well that aged well...
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,112
    I wonder if Liz still wants to slash the benefits bill for workshy scroungers on UC...

    EXCL Nearly 3,000 serving troops live on Universal Credit, shock stats show

    Labour say the numbers are appalling & should be a wake up call to the government

    By ⁦@thejonnyreilly⁩

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/politics/19978222/nearly-3000-troops-live-on-benefits-shock-stats-show?utm_source=sharebar_app&utm_medium=sharebar_app&utm_campaign=sharebar_app_article
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 42,934

    Scott_xP said:

    Incredible stuff in the big read from @ShippersUnbound tonight “Former ministers are openly discussing what would happen if Truss was ousted. “There would have to be a leader by acclamation,” one said. “And it would have to be Boris or Rishi. She’s finished already.”

    Boris could effectively veto Rishi, so that narrows it down to a list of one.
    How?
    By standing in the way of a coronation, knowing that he would beat Rishi in a members' vote.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 55,032
    nico679 said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Home Secretary promises to crack down on channel migration, cut immigration and take on woke cops and return to old school policing
    https://twitter.com/kateferguson4/status/1576291902558597121?s=20&t=mPJkc9u07_h2OAApKHT1OQ

    Any mention of the RNLI being a subversive and hostile NGO?

    And will the cops be able to beat up anyone they like? Edit: or rather, don't like?
    On the RNLI, I understand our son is to feature on a rescue he was involved in on the 'saving lives at sea' series on BBC 2 sometime this month
    I didn’t realize your son was with the RNLI. I’m sure I speak for everyone here by saying that’s amazing , what a hero . I can’t begin to tell you just how much in awe I am of the RNLI and all those who help to save lives .
    Thank you and he has already saved several lives with his fellow crew and they receive such universal praise from everyone. He has been in the service just18 months

    They give enormous hours of their time completely free and as his Dad and Mum we are so proud of him but do worry when his pager goes off ( I am notified at the same time) and we can hear the storm outside
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 104,916

    ydoethur said:

    Kwasi on the other hand.


    Do they never learn?
    Trinity Hall people are thick as mince.
    Oh, go shove a pineapple-topped pizza up your arse, ideally with the pineapple still intact.

    I will concede we probably do have a greater than average number of thickos, but that’s par for the course for a college which is so good at rowing.

    Stephen Hawking went to Trinity Hall
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 104,916
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Home Secretary promises to crack down on channel migration, cut immigration and take on woke cops and return to old school policing
    https://twitter.com/kateferguson4/status/1576291902558597121?s=20&t=mPJkc9u07_h2OAApKHT1OQ

    Hang on, didn't the government just announce that they were relaxing immigration controls to stimulate growth?

    Don't these people talk to each other?
    Badenoch is already laying her mark as tougher on immigration than Truss for a future leadership contest it seems.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 7,109
    Not a bad poll I suppose. A lot of the moderates will be staying away from the party conference so it will be interesting to see how it goes. Usually you would expect a conference bounce but we might be looking at the opposite this time. Will be fascinating to watch the markets as Truss and Kwarteng give their speeches. Has the 'recovery' been somewhat driven by an expectation that the government will change course? The Bank of England intervention may just be a stay of execution.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 1,485
    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Labour 46%
    Con 27%

    Opinium

    So Truss heading for a worse defeat even than Major in 1997 and a lower share of the vote than even the Duke of Wellington got in 1832
    I don´t think this will be the worst poll we see for the Conservatives.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,112
    Today's key stat:

    For most of 2022, the share of 2019 Conservative voters going Labour was about 8-13%

    In this poll that number is 23%

    https://twitter.com/AGKD123/status/1576299374363414528
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 23,635

    Not a bad poll I suppose. A lot of the moderates will be staying away from the party conference so it will be interesting to see how it goes. Usually you would expect a conference bounce but we might be looking at the opposite this time. Will be fascinating to watch the markets as Truss and Kwarteng give their speeches. Has the 'recovery' been somewhat driven by an expectation that the government will change course? The Bank of England intervention may just be a stay of execution.

    'Not a bad poll I suppose.'

    Er, what would constitute a bad poll?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,660
    Scott_xP said:

    Labour 46%
    Con 27%

    Opinium

    Just need another Kantar poll now.
  • Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Home Secretary promises to crack down on channel migration, cut immigration and take on woke cops and return to old school policing
    https://twitter.com/kateferguson4/status/1576291902558597121?s=20&t=mPJkc9u07_h2OAApKHT1OQ

    Hang on, didn't the government just announce that they were relaxing immigration controls to stimulate growth?

    Don't these people talk to each other?
    The difference is migrants we want vs. those we don't want
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,631

    ydoethur said:

    Kwasi on the other hand.


    Do they never learn?
    Trinity Hall people are thick as mince.
    Oh, go shove a pineapple-topped pizza up your arse, ideally with the pineapple still intact.

    I will concede we probably do have a greater than average number of thickos, but that’s par for the course for a college which is so good at rowing.

    Yet more blue on blue.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 10,472
    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Labour 46%
    Con 27%

    Opinium

    So Truss heading for a worse defeat even than Major in 1997 and a lower share of the vote than even the Duke of Wellington got in 1832
    Largest victory for any party since 1935.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,447
    PeterM said:

    On the excess deaths in the uk and worldwide i had a reply saying excess deaths by vaccination status are higher in the unvaccinated
    However the ons has ceased to provide any figures since May 2022 which ciincidentally was when the non covid excess deaths became elevated.
    These excess deaths are all over the world.
    So as the ons no longer publishes these figures the question is what is the ratio of these age adjusted deaths between vaccinated and unvaccinated
    There seems to be no answer at present

    That's the best you can do?
    Lol.

    Right, so you're trying to hint that the ONS are in on a conspiracy to cover up your putative wave of vaccine deaths.
    But, somehow, they haven't realised that the best way to do that would be to, you know, not actually mention excess deaths in the first place?

    Because the source for provisional weekly deaths for England and Wales is... the ONS.

    A bit of a weird conspiracy.

    Meanwhile the Covid-19 Actuaries Response Group took a good look and suggested:
    1 - Elevated cardiovascular risk following covid infection (largest component, as the excess deaths are primarily those known to be associated with long term elevated risk for cardiovascular issues - such as heart failure, ischaemic heart disease, and cerebrovascular diseases. Covid infection has also been found to give a significantly elevated risk of diabetes. Vaccination is not associated with elevated risk of heart failure, ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, or diabetes, and they have looked.)



    2 -Current delays for urgent treatment in the NHS (which are known to be very bad)

    They looked at an option 3 - Delays to diagnoses, primarily of cancer, due to missing and delayed diagnoses earlier in the pandemic, but this does not drive the excess deaths at the moment.

    One of the ironically amusing things from the antivaxxers is when they witter on about the spike protein.
    What on Earth do they think the bloody virus is covered in? If they're scared of the spike protein, they should be bloody terrified of infection and that particular route to boosting immunity!

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,112
    Worth emphasising we have never seen a weekly shift in polling like this. Not Black Wednesday; not Brown cancelling the election; not May and "nothing has changed". None of them come close to this.

    Opinium remove don't knows and reweight - which means they usually show smaller Lab leads. Highest ever under that methodology has been 8pts but usually 2-4pts.

    This is all people switching to Labour.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,112
    ...
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,112
    The bottom line on Truss: from my conversations, her plans are detached from political/parliamentary reality. Options:

    1) Parliamentary war
    2) U-turn on tax/cuts
    3) New leader
    4) Election

    Default position is 1) but on some of it, it's already clear she doesn't have the numbers.

    https://twitter.com/michaelsavage/status/1576303524081987585/photo/1
This discussion has been closed.