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No overall majority back as favourite in the GE betting – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,641
edited October 2022 in General
imageNo overall majority back as favourite in the GE betting – politicalbetting.com

The chart above shows the changes in the the next general election overall majority betting and as can be seen LAB has a slipped a touch and now no overall majority is back as favourite.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,693
    Rightly so. Outright majority is still a monumental mountain for Labour to climb without an SNP collapse. All the more so when they have no distinctive policies of their own to put distance between them and the Government.

    Labour majority also requires Truss to stay in place. She has proved so woeful so quickly, I don't see how she stays in place any length of time.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,693
    FPT:

    As I said before, the optics of the inevitability of Russia losing a newly minted bit of "Mother Russia" were always very odd. The million man army of newly minted recruits has done nothing to help.

    It does look likely they will have no ability to stop Ukraine claiming back huge swathes of acreage in the east. The optics just get worse and worse.

    If anybody else had disappointed Putin so badly, they would have disappeared out a sixth floor window. Maybe they still will.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,301
    Outright majority should be very difficult to achieve. And oppositions are supposed to lead a lot mid team (unless you're Corbyn). And there is Scotland.

    But they really are so far ahead that even reduction in lead puts them in a very good place.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,554
    MarqueeMark said:

    Rightly so. Outright majority is still a monumental mountain for Labour to climb without an SNP collapse. All the more so when they have no distinctive policies of their own to put distance between them and the Government.

    Labour majority also requires Truss to stay in place. She has proved so woeful so quickly, I don't see how she stays in place any length of time.

    I think you are absolutely right in your last a paragraph and this is the driver. If Truss stays in place I think an outright Labour majority is certainly feasible. But the worse she performs the more likely the chance she will be removed long before a GE. And this last week makes that possibility all the more likely. Anyone else but Truss is probably not going to revive Tory fortunes enough for them to win but could muddy the waters enough to prevent a Labour majority.

    So the worse Truss performs the less likely it is there will be an overall Labour majority
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,388
    FPT

    Mr Eagles,

    As Earl Beatty said at Jutland. "There seems to be something wrong with our defence today."
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,301
    Not that they are operating in response to nebulous western public opinion, but this is one reason victories for Ukraine can be important elsewhere. Makes people feel good, and encourage them to push their politicians to keep it up.

    In recent weeks, ‘Ukraine fatigue’ has come up in focus groups with increased frequency.

    Middle-of-road swing voters often say things like ‘why are we sending so much funding, when we need the money here at home?’.

    Polling also backs this up👇. Important for leaders to monitor.

    https://twitter.com/jamesjohnson252/status/1576204474200166400?cxt=HHwWgMCoocjn5t8rAAAA
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,457
    No, I think Labour majority is underpriced.
    Should be favourite.

    Truss is fucked.
    The economy is painful.
    Labour are refreshed.
    Even when they finally get rid of Liz in May 23, the Tories will only appoint a caretaker.

    Forget it Jake, it’s Chinatown.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,491
    I still think 6 for Truss gone by end of year is value, but I have enough of my meagre betting rations in that market now.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,998
    rottenborough said:


    Steven Swinford
    @Steven_Swinford
    ·
    4h
    Times read:

    * Truss allies - including Cab ministers - alarmed. They worry public has made mind up

    * Truss frustrated with Treasury for failing to anticipate market turmoil

    ====

    Perhaps you shouldn't have sacked the permanent sec on the first morning, eh, Liz?

    That said, I am just filling in an application for a part-time job administering various qualifications for a government department.

    The sheer asininity of the questions and procedures they use is driving me up the wall. I have to say, no wonder they're not getting great candidates in the civil service if this is typical.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,491
    ydoethur said:

    rottenborough said:


    Steven Swinford
    @Steven_Swinford
    ·
    4h
    Times read:

    * Truss allies - including Cab ministers - alarmed. They worry public has made mind up

    * Truss frustrated with Treasury for failing to anticipate market turmoil

    ====

    Perhaps you shouldn't have sacked the permanent sec on the first morning, eh, Liz?

    That said, I am just filling in an application for a part-time job administering various qualifications for a government department.

    The sheer asininity of the questions and procedures they use is driving me up the wall. I have to say, no wonder they're not getting great candidates in the civil service if this is typical.
    Falling out with the Treasury as an institution is not going to end well I suspect given how little capital she has and how inexperienced she is. A more wily pol with a longer time might be able to slow engineer some change - she does not possess either of these.
  • mickydroymickydroy Posts: 316
    The latest polls will never be replicated at a GE, Starmer has come a long way, taking into account the shit show he inherited, but he still has got a mountain to climb, if Labour dont make a recovery in Scotland, No overall majority is definitely the bet
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,491
    kle4 said:

    Not that they are operating in response to nebulous western public opinion, but this is one reason victories for Ukraine can be important elsewhere. Makes people feel good, and encourage them to push their politicians to keep it up.

    In recent weeks, ‘Ukraine fatigue’ has come up in focus groups with increased frequency.

    Middle-of-road swing voters often say things like ‘why are we sending so much funding, when we need the money here at home?’.

    Polling also backs this up👇. Important for leaders to monitor.

    https://twitter.com/jamesjohnson252/status/1576204474200166400?cxt=HHwWgMCoocjn5t8rAAAA

    Freedom comes with a price.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,105
    She just can’t get a break…

    https://mobile.twitter.com/AlexPamnani/status/1576165976143327232
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,301
    edited October 2022
    ydoethur said:

    rottenborough said:


    Steven Swinford
    @Steven_Swinford
    ·
    4h
    Times read:

    * Truss allies - including Cab ministers - alarmed. They worry public has made mind up

    * Truss frustrated with Treasury for failing to anticipate market turmoil

    ====

    Perhaps you shouldn't have sacked the permanent sec on the first morning, eh, Liz?

    That said, I am just filling in an application for a part-time job administering various qualifications for a government department.

    The sheer asininity of the questions and procedures they use is driving me up the wall. I have to say, no wonder they're not getting great candidates in the civil service if this is typical.
    You get a list of example questions from HR departments, and you usually have to include at least a certain number of them to ensure they align to some wishy washy 'values', and only a certain number can the recruiting manager actually tailor to the job.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,672
    New poll due at 10pm tonight
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,672
    Russian troops have withdrawn from the key strategic town of Lyman in eastern Ukraine to avoid being surrounded by Ukraine's army, the Russian Ministry of Defense said Saturday.
    https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-10-01-22/h_d51cb295294b53ca8004e88aaefa385f
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,998
    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    rottenborough said:


    Steven Swinford
    @Steven_Swinford
    ·
    4h
    Times read:

    * Truss allies - including Cab ministers - alarmed. They worry public has made mind up

    * Truss frustrated with Treasury for failing to anticipate market turmoil

    ====

    Perhaps you shouldn't have sacked the permanent sec on the first morning, eh, Liz?

    That said, I am just filling in an application for a part-time job administering various qualifications for a government department.

    The sheer asininity of the questions and procedures they use is driving me up the wall. I have to say, no wonder they're not getting great candidates in the civil service if this is typical.
    You get a list of example questions from HR departments, and you usually have to include at least a certain number of them to ensure they align to some wishy washy 'values', and only a certain number can the recruiting manager actually tailor to the job.
    What's especially frustrating is not just that they're really silly but that they effectively ask the same thing over and over. I feel like saying 'didn't you read the first one?'
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 25,084
    rottenborough said:


    Steven Swinford
    @Steven_Swinford
    ·
    4h
    Times read:

    * Truss allies - including Cab ministers - alarmed. They worry public has made mind up

    * Truss frustrated with Treasury for failing to anticipate market turmoil

    ====

    Perhaps you shouldn't have sacked the permanent sec on the first morning, eh, Liz?

    If they are worried about the public having made up our mind, why are they not willing to tell us what the plan actually is for another eight weeks to convince us?

    Logically the most likely reason is that there is no plan. The second most likely reason would be there is a plan but even they know it is shit.

    Continued radio silence and saying trust us is not going to swing many minds in their favour and will swing many waverers against them.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    Was Thursday the most exciting day in polling since the Cleggasm?
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    I think NOM is about right.
    If you look at the situation from the labour point of view, it is still a mountain to climb to get a majority.
    They've got to win back the red wall and go further than that because of the problems in Scotland.
    What Truss basically did last week is hand the red wall back to Labour.
    The red wall were screwed over and taken advantage of by the labour party, now the tories have just gone and done the same thing.
    Starmer probably doesn't need to do that much about the red wall. The problem is making headway in the south.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,120
    I think Lab overall majority should be favourite. So much anger out there at the moment toward the tories. I do not think it is recoverable under Truss

    Maybe NOM fav if they get rid of her
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,497
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Rightly so. Outright majority is still a monumental mountain for Labour to climb without an SNP collapse. All the more so when they have no distinctive policies of their own to put distance between them and the Government.

    Labour majority also requires Truss to stay in place. She has proved so woeful so quickly, I don't see how she stays in place any length of time.

    I think you are absolutely right in your last a paragraph and this is the driver. If Truss stays in place I think an outright Labour majority is certainly feasible. But the worse she performs the more likely the chance she will be removed long before a GE. And this last week makes that possibility all the more likely. Anyone else but Truss is probably not going to revive Tory fortunes enough for them to win but could muddy the waters enough to prevent a Labour majority.

    So the worse Truss performs the less likely it is there will be an overall Labour majority
    I’m not sure that’s right.
    If she’s not removed, then it will be rather more than a simple majority for Labour - all the way to possible extinction for the Conservative party.

    Remember that Major’s government was (certainly in retrospect, and considering the slim majority available to him) actually rather competent.
    It didn’t save him from an absolute shellacking at the polls.
    A decent replacement for Truss might salvage the party; Labour might well then still get a good majority.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,497
    Scott_xP said:

    Russian troops have withdrawn from the key strategic town of Lyman in eastern Ukraine to avoid being surrounded by Ukraine's army, the Russian Ministry of Defense said Saturday.
    https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-10-01-22/h_d51cb295294b53ca8004e88aaefa385f

    Apart from all the ones left there when they blew up the bridge.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,457
    kle4 said:

    Not that they are operating in response to nebulous western public opinion, but this is one reason victories for Ukraine can be important elsewhere. Makes people feel good, and encourage them to push their politicians to keep it up.

    In recent weeks, ‘Ukraine fatigue’ has come up in focus groups with increased frequency.

    Middle-of-road swing voters often say things like ‘why are we sending so much funding, when we need the money here at home?’.

    Polling also backs this up👇. Important for leaders to monitor.

    https://twitter.com/jamesjohnson252/status/1576204474200166400?cxt=HHwWgMCoocjn5t8rAAAA

    Interesting, though I’d like to see specific polling.

    The job for the government, of course, is to explain why defending Ukraine is akin to defending western democracy. There is no safe alternative to our current policy.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,301
    FrankBooth said:

    Was Thursday the most exciting day in polling since the Cleggasm?

    I'm pretty sure correcthorsebattery gasmed.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,497
    tlg86 said:

    She just can’t get a break…

    https://mobile.twitter.com/AlexPamnani/status/1576165976143327232

    The cat’s not an idiot. He has her number.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,791
    Gardenwalker said:

    No, I think Labour majority is underpriced.
    Should be favourite.

    Truss is fucked.
    The economy is painful.
    Labour are refreshed.
    Even when they finally get rid of Liz in May 23, the Tories will only appoint a caretaker.

    Forget it Jake, it’s Chinatown.

    Am inclined to agree, GW.

    Naturally I accept all the caveats stated by Mickey Droy and others on here, but I just don't see a route out of the quagmire for the Tories. What's the Plan?

    The answer of course is that there ain't no F in Plan.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,457
    edited October 2022
    I’d like to see some detailed Scottish polling now, too.

    Labour have a clear message there now:

    If you want to get rid of this hated government, vote SLAB. Don’t risk a vote on the SNP.

    I am reasonably optimistic about the findings of Gordon Brown’s commission, too.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    noneoftheabove said:

    rottenborough said:


    Steven Swinford
    @Steven_Swinford
    ·
    4h
    Times read:

    * Truss allies - including Cab ministers - alarmed. They worry public has made mind up

    * Truss frustrated with Treasury for failing to anticipate market turmoil

    ====

    Perhaps you shouldn't have sacked the permanent sec on the first morning, eh, Liz?

    If they are worried about the public having made up our mind, why are they not willing to tell us what the plan actually is for another eight weeks to convince us?

    Logically the most likely reason is that there is no plan. The second most likely reason would be there is a plan but even they know it is shit.

    Continued radio silence and saying trust us is not going to swing many minds in their favour and will swing many waverers against them.
    Yeah, thats very true. They keep going on about how they need to do their plan and how they need to stick to it, but they haven't given any real detail on what the plan is and then impose glacial timescales on it. Its another reason why Truss is being cast in the public imagination as useless and dangerous. The cabinet ministers are probably right, people have 'made up their mind' already. And its all on them, the civil service told them not to do it.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 9,009
    MarqueeMark said:

    Rightly so. Outright majority is still a monumental mountain for Labour to climb without an SNP collapse. All the more so when they have no distinctive policies of their own to put distance between them and the Government.

    Labour majority also requires Truss to stay in place. She has proved so woeful so quickly, I don't see how she stays in place any length of time.

    The Labour conference must have passed you by if you think "they have no distinctive policies of their own". There were loads - to give just three examples. Great British Energy, national living wage, green industrial revolution stuff.

    Regardless, Labour don't particularly need to "put distance between them and the Government". Truss and Kwarteng have done that for them, quite rapidly.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,139
    Nigelb said:

    tlg86 said:

    She just can’t get a break…

    https://mobile.twitter.com/AlexPamnani/status/1576165976143327232

    The cat’s not an idiot. He has her number.
    He'll call her later, organize a date, you think?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,301
    Nigelb said:

    tlg86 said:

    She just can’t get a break…

    https://mobile.twitter.com/AlexPamnani/status/1576165976143327232

    The cat’s not an idiot. He has her number.
    As someone who cats often tease that they are amenable to a pet and then dash away, I feel for her.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,497
    The claim by Russian-appointed Governor of Sevastopol is that a plane overshot runway. If it did, it seems then have run into an arms dump.
    https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1576229330736525314
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,804
    edited October 2022
    Truss will be gone by Christmas IMHO.

    As for whether the Tories can then recover enough to deny Labour a majority, I actually doubt that. But they might be able to keep it to a small and uncomfortable majority as opposed to a whacking great one, which is what I suspect will be the case if they stick with Truss.

    Truss isn’t just seen as bad communicator, or a bad policy maker, or a bad leader. She is seen as a combination of all three- heartless, tone deaf and incompetent. She cannot claw this back.

    They need Truss out and a safe pair of hands in.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,791
    Nigelb said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Rightly so. Outright majority is still a monumental mountain for Labour to climb without an SNP collapse. All the more so when they have no distinctive policies of their own to put distance between them and the Government.

    Labour majority also requires Truss to stay in place. She has proved so woeful so quickly, I don't see how she stays in place any length of time.

    I think you are absolutely right in your last a paragraph and this is the driver. If Truss stays in place I think an outright Labour majority is certainly feasible. But the worse she performs the more likely the chance she will be removed long before a GE. And this last week makes that possibility all the more likely. Anyone else but Truss is probably not going to revive Tory fortunes enough for them to win but could muddy the waters enough to prevent a Labour majority.

    So the worse Truss performs the less likely it is there will be an overall Labour majority
    I’m not sure that’s right.
    If she’s not removed, then it will be rather more than a simple majority for Labour - all the way to possible extinction for the Conservative party.

    Remember that Major’s government was (certainly in retrospect, and considering the slim majority available to him) actually rather competent.
    It didn’t save him from an absolute shellacking at the polls.
    A decent replacement for Truss might salvage the party; Labour might well then still get a good majority.
    So who is this 'decent replacement', Nige, and how is it effected?

    I keep staring at my crystal ball but it just stares glumly back,
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,457
    edited October 2022
    Some talk about plans above.

    Right now, there is no plan.

    We kind of know what the original plan was:

    1. Send a message that Britain was open for business via tax cuts and supply side reform.

    2. Deliver a short-lived boom to get you through an election.

    3. Post-election austerity.

    Part 1 has blown up; they know they are going to have to go straight to Part 3 to make the books balance, though they don’t know precisely how.

    Meanwhile, they are trying to figure out whether the public will accept the excuse that speculators / Putin / the woke IMF / the remoaner “orthodoxy” are to blame.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 9,203
    By the end of their conference Truss & Kwarteng will have the party behind them, and not wielding knives.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507
    edited October 2022
    mickydroy said:

    The latest polls will never be replicated at a GE, Starmer has come a long way, taking into account the shit show he inherited, but he still has got a mountain to climb, if Labour dont make a recovery in Scotland, No overall majority is definitely the bet

    do the polling companies handle 2019 Tory voters currently saying Don't Know in different ways? if the Trussatron hasn't driven them to Labour or LibDem yet they may well go back to the blues.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,703
    Gardenwalker said:

    No, I think Labour majority is underpriced.
    Should be favourite.

    Truss is fucked.
    The economy is painful.
    Labour are refreshed.
    Even when they finally get rid of Liz in May 23, the Tories will only appoint a caretaker.

    Forget it Jake, it’s Chinatown.

    Lab most seats is the bet to be on.

    1.52 at present. Should be 1.1 or so.

  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 10,262
    Did we reach bottom Truss over the last few days? Presumably, once the initial shock has passed, a few will return to the Tory fold for various reasons: 'It hasn't gone all Mad Max so was it an overreaction?' 'Everyone hates Liz therefore I'm supporting her again to prove I'm a free thinker' 'What a strange dream' etc.
  • PedestrianRockPedestrianRock Posts: 589
    I think some of you are being overly pessimistic on the chances of a Labour majority.

    The Lib Dem factor is something that is really interesting and not being spoken about. These crazy polls that have Labour 50% and above seem to imply a big chunk of the Tory protest vote of years gone by, that might have just voted Lib Dem rather than Labour, are not doing so.

    Another factor - tactical voting. This played a vital part in Blair’s 1997 landslide, and was used to great effect in bye-election victories for the Lib Dems and Labour in 2021+2022. Theoretically, it should be possible to organise tactical voting on a much larger scale than at any election before nowadays. There was a lot of this encouraged in 2019 (https://tactical.vote/faq/ and others) but the distance between the offerings of Labour and the Lib Dems on issues such as Brexit, and what people thought of Corbyn, was far further apart than will be the case in 2024.

    A wildcard might be if the Lib Dems come out in favour of full rejoin for the next election - but it doesn’t look like they’ll do that, we can’t completely rule it out though.

    Barring something like that, a huge tactical voting operation in 2024 could very much make up for the difficulties that Labour would otherwise have had at winning majorities without Scotland

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,672
    numbertwelve said:

    Truss will be gone by Christmas IMHO.

    As for whether the Tories can then recover enough to deny Labour a majority, I actually doubt that. But they might be able to keep it to a small and uncomfortable majority as opposed to a whacking great one, which is what I suspect will be the case if they stick with Truss.

    Truss isn’t just seen as bad communicator, or a bad policy maker, or a bad leader. She is seen as a combination of all three- heartless, tone deaf and incompetent. She cannot claw this back.

    They need Truss out and a safe pair of hands in.

    An interesting question will be in the next iteration of the Tory party, whether this debacle will finally quell the voices of the headbangers and associated swivel-eyed loons.

    Scene. A committee room.

    Tory MP 1: "I have an idea"

    Tory MP 2: "You supported Liz Truss for leader. Sit down, and STFU, For ever."
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 25,084
    Stark_Dawning said:

    Did we reach bottom Truss over the last few days? Presumably, once the initial shock has passed, a few will return to the Tory fold for various reasons: 'It hasn't gone all Mad Max so was it an overreaction?' 'Everyone hates Liz therefore I'm supporting her again to prove I'm a free thinker' 'What a strange dream' etc.

    In next few months millions of households bills go up by several hundreds a month that they don't have. That is probably a bigger factor.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,457
    Scott_xP said:

    numbertwelve said:

    Truss will be gone by Christmas IMHO.

    As for whether the Tories can then recover enough to deny Labour a majority, I actually doubt that. But they might be able to keep it to a small and uncomfortable majority as opposed to a whacking great one, which is what I suspect will be the case if they stick with Truss.

    Truss isn’t just seen as bad communicator, or a bad policy maker, or a bad leader. She is seen as a combination of all three- heartless, tone deaf and incompetent. She cannot claw this back.

    They need Truss out and a safe pair of hands in.

    An interesting question will be in the next iteration of the Tory party, whether this debacle will finally quell the voices of the headbangers and associated swivel-eyed loons.

    Scene. A committee room.

    Tory MP 1: "I have an idea"

    Tory MP 2: "You supported Liz Truss for leader. Sit down, and STFU, For ever."
    Works better if you replace “Tory MP 2” with “Entire rest of country”.

    Yes, we need to put Lord Frost, Daniel Hannan, the IEA, Crispin Odey et al on a slow boat to China.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,672
    noneoftheabove said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    Did we reach bottom Truss over the last few days? Presumably, once the initial shock has passed, a few will return to the Tory fold for various reasons: 'It hasn't gone all Mad Max so was it an overreaction?' 'Everyone hates Liz therefore I'm supporting her again to prove I'm a free thinker' 'What a strange dream' etc.

    In next few months millions of households bills go up by several hundreds a month that they don't have. That is probably a bigger factor.
    Liz Truss's "energy price guarantee" has reduced the original price cap announced on 26 August.

    🔌 From today, instead of paying a maximum of 28p per kWh for electricity - people will now pay 34p.

    🛢️ And instead of paying a maximum of 7p per kWh for gas, they will now pay 10.3p

    🏢 If you live in a purpose-built flat your average bill will be £1,750

    🏘️ If you live in a mid-terraced house it will be around £2,350

    🏘️ Those who live in semi-detached houses will pay around £2,650 a year

    🏡 And detached properties will pay roughly £3,300 annually
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,998
    rottenborough said:

    I still think 6 for Truss gone by end of year is value, but I have enough of my meagre betting rations in that market now.

    I'm on the other side at 8.

    I'm on the other side.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,672
    Gardenwalker said:

    Works better if you replace “Tory MP 2” with “Entire rest of country”.

    Yes, we need to put Lord Frost, Daniel Hannan, the IEA, Crispin Odey et al on a slow boat to China.

    I live in the slim hope that a Conservative and Unionist Party that I can vote for will emerge from the rubble of the current incarnation of Blukip
  • MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,802
    Gardenwalker said:

    Scott_xP said:

    numbertwelve said:

    Truss will be gone by Christmas IMHO.

    As for whether the Tories can then recover enough to deny Labour a majority, I actually doubt that. But they might be able to keep it to a small and uncomfortable majority as opposed to a whacking great one, which is what I suspect will be the case if they stick with Truss.

    Truss isn’t just seen as bad communicator, or a bad policy maker, or a bad leader. She is seen as a combination of all three- heartless, tone deaf and incompetent. She cannot claw this back.

    They need Truss out and a safe pair of hands in.

    An interesting question will be in the next iteration of the Tory party, whether this debacle will finally quell the voices of the headbangers and associated swivel-eyed loons.

    Scene. A committee room.

    Tory MP 1: "I have an idea"

    Tory MP 2: "You supported Liz Truss for leader. Sit down, and STFU, For ever."
    Works better if you replace “Tory MP 2” with “Entire rest of country”.

    Yes, we need to put Lord Frost, Daniel Hannan, the IEA, Crispin Odey et al on a slow boat to China.
    *Somalia

    Let them enjoy a true libertarian paradise.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,497
    Peter_the_Punter said:

    Nigelb said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Rightly so. Outright majority is still a monumental mountain for Labour to climb without an SNP collapse. All the more so when they have no distinctive policies of their own to put distance between them and the Government.

    Labour majority also requires Truss to stay in place. She has proved so woeful so quickly, I don't see how she stays in place any length of time.

    I think you are absolutely right in your last a paragraph and this is the driver. If Truss stays in place I think an outright Labour majority is certainly feasible. But the worse she performs the more likely the chance she will be removed long before a GE. And this last week makes that possibility all the more likely. Anyone else but Truss is probably not going to revive Tory fortunes enough for them to win but could muddy the waters enough to prevent a Labour majority.

    So the worse Truss performs the less likely it is there will be an overall Labour majority
    I’m not sure that’s right.
    If she’s not removed, then it will be rather more than a simple majority for Labour - all the way to possible extinction for the Conservative party.

    Remember that Major’s government was (certainly in retrospect, and considering the slim majority available to him) actually rather competent.
    It didn’t save him from an absolute shellacking at the polls.
    A decent replacement for Truss might salvage the party; Labour might well then still get a good majority.
    So who is this 'decent replacement', Nige, and how is it effected?

    I keep staring at my crystal ball but it just stares glumly back,
    Yes, “might” carries quite a weight there.

    But I always thought that the Tories were the ones able to engineer quick changes of leader behind the scenes. If they’ve truly lost that ability, and the right-the-ship option of Wallace/Sunak isn’t available, then they’re pretty well doomed.
    In those circumstances, then Labour majority ought to be about 2/1 on, at the very least.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,998
    Gardenwalker said:

    Scott_xP said:

    numbertwelve said:

    Truss will be gone by Christmas IMHO.

    As for whether the Tories can then recover enough to deny Labour a majority, I actually doubt that. But they might be able to keep it to a small and uncomfortable majority as opposed to a whacking great one, which is what I suspect will be the case if they stick with Truss.

    Truss isn’t just seen as bad communicator, or a bad policy maker, or a bad leader. She is seen as a combination of all three- heartless, tone deaf and incompetent. She cannot claw this back.

    They need Truss out and a safe pair of hands in.

    An interesting question will be in the next iteration of the Tory party, whether this debacle will finally quell the voices of the headbangers and associated swivel-eyed loons.

    Scene. A committee room.

    Tory MP 1: "I have an idea"

    Tory MP 2: "You supported Liz Truss for leader. Sit down, and STFU, For ever."
    Works better if you replace “Tory MP 2” with “Entire rest of country”.

    Yes, we need to put Lord Frost, Daniel Hannan, the IEA, Crispin Odey et al on a slow boat to China.
    Why? What bad thing did China do to you?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,672
    For the second time this week, NHS Grampian issues “extreme pressure” warning, urging people to only attend Aberdeen Royal Infirmary if their condition is life-threatening. https://twitter.com/bbcnortheast/status/1576241959613636608
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 45,032
    edited October 2022
    Gardenwalker said:

    I’d like to see some detailed Scottish polling now, too.

    Labour have a clear message there now:

    If you want to get rid of this hated government, vote SLAB. Don’t risk a vote on the SNP.

    I am reasonably optimistic about the findings of Gordon Brown’s commission, too.

    SNP much better position at present, with rather few SNP-Lab contests. Much safer to vote SNP to keep the Tories out. Less risk of letting the Tories through the middle. Or their potential coalition allies the now rather right wing LDs.

    Also - small matter of Brexit; Labour are now Brexiters and effectively a cleaned-up Tory Party in this respect.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,497
    Stark_Dawning said:

    Did we reach bottom Truss over the last few days? Presumably, once the initial shock has passed, a few will return to the Tory fold for various reasons: 'It hasn't gone all Mad Max so was it an overreaction?' 'Everyone hates Liz therefore I'm supporting her again to prove I'm a free thinker' 'What a strange dream' etc.

    Well her status as ‘top’ is gone for good, yes.

    Or isn’t that what you meant ?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,672
    Nigelb said:

    But I always thought that the Tories were the ones able to engineer quick changes of leader behind the scenes. If they’ve truly lost that ability, and the right-the-ship option of Wallace/Sunak isn’t available, then they’re pretty well doomed.

    Another casualty of their takeover by UKIP
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,672
    Torbynism...

    "The Conservative Party has lept further out to the right than Jeremy Corbyn was out to the left."

    The Tories are entering their 'Jeremy Corbyn era,' Nick Boles tells @AyeshaHazarika https://twitter.com/TimesRadio/status/1576245085481598976/video/1
  • RattersRatters Posts: 1,414
    The trouble for the Tories is there is now a direct link between their policy actions and the need for banks to hike mortgage rates by huge amounts and wider economic hardship.

    Now a lot of that was already inevitable due to the global inflationary pressures. But the mini-budget puts the blame at the government's door for reckless measures that favoured high earners and bankers, while having the stupidity to not realise firing the permanent secretary to the Treasury and sidelining the OBR would result in a loss of market confidence in the context of a huge increase in spending and scattergun tax cuts.

    A change in leader may slow the bleeding, but I don't think they can recover.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,791
    kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    tlg86 said:

    She just can’t get a break…

    https://mobile.twitter.com/AlexPamnani/status/1576165976143327232

    The cat’s not an idiot. He has her number.
    As someone who cats often tease that they are amenable to a pet and then dash away, I feel for her.
    I ought to lend her my border collie; it would get rid of the cat and do a far far better job on the economy.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,672
    Something of a call to arms here from MP Andrew Bowie. A battle for the soul of the Tory Party is beginning... on the eve of Tory conference.
    https://twitter.com/AndrewBowie_MP/status/1576226496251060227
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 25,084
    Scott_xP said:

    Nigelb said:

    But I always thought that the Tories were the ones able to engineer quick changes of leader behind the scenes. If they’ve truly lost that ability, and the right-the-ship option of Wallace/Sunak isn’t available, then they’re pretty well doomed.

    Another casualty of their takeover by UKIP
    That is unfair. UKIP were the masters of leadership nonsense.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,624
    Nigelb said:

    The claim by Russian-appointed Governor of Sevastopol is that a plane overshot runway. If it did, it seems then have run into an arms dump.
    https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1576229330736525314

    There is distant video (taken from a beach) of what appears to be a plane going down a small bluff near the sea. So I'd bet the Governor of the Temporarily Occupied Sevastopol is, for once, telling the truth. Given the secondary explosions that occurred afterwards, I wonder if it was a cargo plane carrying ammo, or ammo on a fully-loaded bomber.

    https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1576244285577510912
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,876
    Foxy said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    No, I think Labour majority is underpriced.
    Should be favourite.

    Truss is fucked.
    The economy is painful.
    Labour are refreshed.
    Even when they finally get rid of Liz in May 23, the Tories will only appoint a caretaker.

    Forget it Jake, it’s Chinatown.

    Lab most seats is the bet to be on.

    1.52 at present. Should be 1.1 or so.

    It seems that way doesn't it. However the very fact it isn't at that price tells you that political betters disagree. I'd guess around 50% of the market in these long term bets are here on PB. When elections are near I'm sure it drops to I guess 15% or so.

    I can tell you why I'm not backing Labour. 1. Labour, 2. Starmer, 3. Sneaky LDs that always mess up my bets, 4. Whilst the Tories and Truss are currently completly hopeless they're simply not talented enough to stay that way.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 45,032
    Peter_the_Punter said:

    kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    tlg86 said:

    She just can’t get a break…

    https://mobile.twitter.com/AlexPamnani/status/1576165976143327232

    The cat’s not an idiot. He has her number.
    As someone who cats often tease that they are amenable to a pet and then dash away, I feel for her.
    I ought to lend her my border collie; it would get rid of the cat and do a far far better job on the economy.
    Well, of course: very intelligent pooches. But even a boxer would do better.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,672
    Global Chief Executive of IPSOS Ben Page explains how "tone-deaf" Tories have pushed voters to Labour.

    @EmilySheffield | @benatipsos https://twitter.com/LBC/status/1576247887301853189/video/1
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,653
    Gardenwalker said:

    No, I think Labour majority is underpriced.
    Should be favourite.

    Truss is fucked.
    The economy is painful.
    Labour are refreshed.
    Even when they finally get rid of Liz in May 23, the Tories will only appoint a caretaker.

    Forget it Jake, it’s Chinatown.

    With B and then LT we’ve had the full club sandwich - who can possibly be next?
  • RattersRatters Posts: 1,414
    I'd also highlight that Sunak's prediction of the chaos that would be caused by Truss's policies writes Labour's election campaign for them.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    We thank the “Ministry of Defense” of 🇷🇺 for successful cooperation in organizing the "Izyum 2.0" exercise. Almost all russian troops deployed to Lyman were successfully redeployed either into body bags or into 🇺🇦 captivity. We have one question for you: Would you like a repeat?

    https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1576248108690079745
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,791
    Scott_xP said:

    Torbynism...

    "The Conservative Party has lept further out to the right than Jeremy Corbyn was out to the left."

    The Tories are entering their 'Jeremy Corbyn era,' Nick Boles tells @AyeshaHazarika https://twitter.com/TimesRadio/status/1576245085481598976/video/1

    Those who voted Tory 'to keep Corbyn out' must be feeling a bit embarrassed now.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,497
    .
    JosiasJessop said:

    Nigelb said:

    The claim by Russian-appointed Governor of Sevastopol is that a plane overshot runway. If it did, it seems then have run into an arms dump.
    https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1576229330736525314

    There is distant video (taken from a beach) of what appears to be a plane going down a small bluff near the sea. So I'd bet the Governor of the Temporarily Occupied Sevastopol is, for once, telling the truth. Given the secondary explosions that occurred afterwards, I wonder if it was a cargo plane carrying ammo, or ammo on a fully-loaded bomber.

    https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1576244285577510912
    Yes, I just saw that.
    Are they the same bang ? Not entirely clear.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    Can't deny that Meloni is charismatic. The tone gets a little scary at times though.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7qWwUUh1P_k

    'I can't define myself as Italian, christian, woman, mother. No. I must be citizen X, gender X, parent 1, parent 2. I must be a number. Because when I am only a number, when I no longer have an identity and roots, then I will be the perfect slave at the mercy of financial speculators.'
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,876
    Peter_the_Punter said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Torbynism...

    "The Conservative Party has lept further out to the right than Jeremy Corbyn was out to the left."

    The Tories are entering their 'Jeremy Corbyn era,' Nick Boles tells @AyeshaHazarika https://twitter.com/TimesRadio/status/1576245085481598976/video/1

    Those who voted Tory 'to keep Corbyn out' must be feeling a bit embarrassed now.
    I think otherwise - it's probably the only good decision on which their sanity hangs.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,672
    Ratters said:

    I'd also highlight that Sunak's prediction of the chaos that would be caused by Truss's policies writes Labour's election campaign for them.

    I suspect there is a pretty good video to be made of everything that has happened in the last week intercut with that clip of Truss saying "This is a disgrace" over and over again...
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 15,332
    A Lab/LD coalition could be just the job. Labour won't risk putting something about EFTA/EEA in the manifesto, but the LDs could either go for this or for rejoining. Once in coalition Labour could then go for EEA/EFTA as part of a deal. Giving sane Brexiteers what they wanted, and remainers much of what they wanted.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,653
    edited October 2022
    PedestrianRock said:

    I think some of you are being overly pessimistic on the chances of a Labour majority.

    The Lib Dem factor is something that is really interesting and not being spoken about. These crazy polls that have Labour 50% and above seem to imply a big chunk of the Tory protest vote of years gone by, that might have just voted Lib Dem rather than Labour, are not doing so.

    Another factor - tactical voting. This played a vital part in Blair’s 1997 landslide, and was used to great effect in bye-election victories for the Lib Dems and Labour in 2021+2022. Theoretically, it should be possible to organise tactical voting on a much larger scale than at any election before nowadays. There was a lot of this encouraged in 2019 (https://tactical.vote/faq/ and others) but the distance between the offerings of Labour and the Lib Dems on issues such as Brexit, and what people thought of Corbyn, was far further apart than will be the case in 2024.

    A wildcard might be if the Lib Dems come out in favour of full rejoin for the next election - but it doesn’t look like they’ll do that, we can’t completely rule it out though.

    Barring something like that, a huge tactical voting operation in 2024 could very much make up for the difficulties that Labour would otherwise have had at winning majorities without Scotland

    The LibDems were at 10-14% in the runup to 1997, yet when the election came they did better than that as well as pulling in a decent seat haul from tactical voting.

    Right now people are saying ‘Labour’ because it seems a two-way contest and there is still a belief that the Tories might still win. If by the time the election comes, everyone can see - as in 1997 - that the Tories stand no chance of being re-elected, there will be a lot more willingness to cast a vote for other non-Tory parties where they stand a chance.
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 3,693
    Omnium said:

    Foxy said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    No, I think Labour majority is underpriced.
    Should be favourite.

    Truss is fucked.
    The economy is painful.
    Labour are refreshed.
    Even when they finally get rid of Liz in May 23, the Tories will only appoint a caretaker.

    Forget it Jake, it’s Chinatown.

    Lab most seats is the bet to be on.

    1.52 at present. Should be 1.1 or so.

    It seems that way doesn't it. However the very fact it isn't at that price tells you that political betters disagree. I'd guess around 50% of the market in these long term bets are here on PB. When elections are near I'm sure it drops to I guess 15% or so.

    I can tell you why I'm not backing Labour. 1. Labour, 2. Starmer, 3. Sneaky LDs that always mess up my bets, 4. Whilst the Tories and Truss are currently completly hopeless they're simply not talented enough to stay that way.
    5. Things change. Look at threads from 12 months ago. Dreary SKS, rampant Boris, no mid-term boost for the opposition, almost impossible to lose an 80-seat majority in one go. Etc. Etc.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    edited October 2022
    I've become aware of some discussion amongst 'lefty lawyers' about the The Retained EU Law (Revocation and Reform) Bill that has just been placed before Parliament.

    "If passed, REULRR will effectively sweep away any and all EU laws that the Government hasn't actively decided to keep.

    It does this by:

    Repealing EU derived laws by the end of 2023. The government will be able to extend that deadline to 23 June 2026 (the tenth anniversary of the Brexit referendum) but can't further extend it.
    Repealing the principle of supremacy of EU law by the end of 2023. Currently, any EU decision reached before 1 January 2021 is binding on UK courts unless the government departs from it. However, this bill will subjugate all EU law in favour of UK law by default.
    Repealing directly effective EU law rights and obligations in UK law by the end of 2023; and
    Establishing a new priority rule requiring retained direct EU legislation to be interpreted and applied consistently with domestic legislation.

    https://imbusiness.passle.net/post/102hxsn/what-truss-did-on-my-holidays-its-much-more-than-just-the-mini-budget

    What this may mean, if I have understood it correctly, is that all those environmental EU regulations that have been transposed in to UK law by default and the government hasn't specifically decided to keep, will just be junked automatically, at the end of 2023.

    Interesting (but perhaps not suprising) that the tories have tried to bury this one amongst the chaos of the budget announcements.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507
    Nigelb said:

    Peter_the_Punter said:

    Nigelb said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Rightly so. Outright majority is still a monumental mountain for Labour to climb without an SNP collapse. All the more so when they have no distinctive policies of their own to put distance between them and the Government.

    Labour majority also requires Truss to stay in place. She has proved so woeful so quickly, I don't see how she stays in place any length of time.

    I think you are absolutely right in your last a paragraph and this is the driver. If Truss stays in place I think an outright Labour majority is certainly feasible. But the worse she performs the more likely the chance she will be removed long before a GE. And this last week makes that possibility all the more likely. Anyone else but Truss is probably not going to revive Tory fortunes enough for them to win but could muddy the waters enough to prevent a Labour majority.

    So the worse Truss performs the less likely it is there will be an overall Labour majority
    I’m not sure that’s right.
    If she’s not removed, then it will be rather more than a simple majority for Labour - all the way to possible extinction for the Conservative party.

    Remember that Major’s government was (certainly in retrospect, and considering the slim majority available to him) actually rather competent.
    It didn’t save him from an absolute shellacking at the polls.
    A decent replacement for Truss might salvage the party; Labour might well then still get a good majority.
    So who is this 'decent replacement', Nige, and how is it effected?

    I keep staring at my crystal ball but it just stares glumly back,
    Yes, “might” carries quite a weight there.

    But I always thought that the Tories were the ones able to engineer quick changes of leader behind the scenes. If they’ve truly lost that ability, and the right-the-ship option of Wallace/Sunak isn’t available, then they’re pretty well doomed.
    In those circumstances, then Labour majority ought to be about 2/1 on, at the very least.
    I think they'd need to pick someone who'd be prepared to do the job for a few years. the public wont be tempted by a caretaker who they think is just there to get the Tories through the next election and then leave it to Tory party members to decide who is actually going to be in charge again. although i'm sure they'd be choosing the LOTO rather than PM.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,703
    FrankBooth said:

    Can't deny that Meloni is charismatic. The tone gets a little scary at times though.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7qWwUUh1P_k

    'I can't define myself as Italian, christian, woman, mother. No. I must be citizen X, gender X, parent 1, parent 2. I must be a number. Because when I am only a number, when I no longer have an identity and roots, then I will be the perfect slave at the mercy of financial speculators.'

    What total bollocks.*.

    * or other gender neutral germinal organs.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,962
    Scott_xP said:

    Ratters said:

    I'd also highlight that Sunak's prediction of the chaos that would be caused by Truss's policies writes Labour's election campaign for them.

    I suspect there is a pretty good video to be made of everything that has happened in the last week intercut with that clip of Truss saying "This is a disgrace" over and over again...
    There is this one mixing her words with “Bonkers” by Dizzee Rascal and probably quite appropriate.

    https://www.instagram.com/reel/CjDoYXYo_qz/?igshid=MDJmNzVkMjY=
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,672
    Moscow.

    https://twitter.com/bmay/status/1576206901645258752/photo/1
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,876
    Alphabet_Soup said:

    Omnium said:

    Foxy said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    No, I think Labour majority is underpriced.
    Should be favourite.

    Truss is fucked.
    The economy is painful.
    Labour are refreshed.
    Even when they finally get rid of Liz in May 23, the Tories will only appoint a caretaker.

    Forget it Jake, it’s Chinatown.

    Lab most seats is the bet to be on.

    1.52 at present. Should be 1.1 or so.

    It seems that way doesn't it. However the very fact it isn't at that price tells you that political betters disagree. I'd guess around 50% of the market in these long term bets are here on PB. When elections are near I'm sure it drops to I guess 15% or so.

    I can tell you why I'm not backing Labour. 1. Labour, 2. Starmer, 3. Sneaky LDs that always mess up my bets, 4. Whilst the Tories and Truss are currently completly hopeless they're simply not talented enough to stay that way.
    5. Things change. Look at threads from 12 months ago. Dreary SKS, rampant Boris, no mid-term boost for the opposition, almost impossible to lose an 80-seat majority in one go. Etc. Etc.
    Quite true.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,703
    edited October 2022
    darkage said:

    I've become aware of some discussion amongst 'lefty lawyers' about the The Retained EU Law (Revocation and Reform) Bill that has just been placed before Parliament.

    "If passed, REULRR will effectively sweep away any and all EU laws that the Government hasn't actively decided to keep.

    It does this by:

    Repealing EU derived laws by the end of 2023. The government will be able to extend that deadline to 23 June 2026 (the tenth anniversary of the Brexit referendum) but can't further extend it.
    Repealing the principle of supremacy of EU law by the end of 2023. Currently, any EU decision reached before 1 January 2021 is binding on UK courts unless the government departs from it. However, this bill will subjugate all EU law in favour of UK law by default.
    Repealing directly effective EU law rights and obligations in UK law by the end of 2023; and
    Establishing a new priority rule requiring retained direct EU legislation to be interpreted and applied consistently with domestic legislation.

    https://imbusiness.passle.net/post/102hxsn/what-truss-did-on-my-holidays-its-much-more-than-just-the-mini-budget

    What this may mean, if I have understood it correctly, is that all those environmental EU regulations that have been transposed in to UK law by default and the government hasn't specifically decided to keep, will just be junked automatically, at the end of 2023.

    Interesting (but perhaps not suprising) that the tories have tried to bury this one amongst the chaos of the budget announcements.

    Pushing the limits of being the unPopulist party!

  • PedestrianRockPedestrianRock Posts: 589
    algarkirk said:

    A Lab/LD coalition could be just the job. Labour won't risk putting something about EFTA/EEA in the manifesto, but the LDs could either go for this or for rejoining. Once in coalition Labour could then go for EEA/EFTA as part of a deal. Giving sane Brexiteers what they wanted, and remainers much of what they wanted.

    Yes and this prospective coalition would probably do PR as well. If Labour poll really strongly and still need a coalition, it is in the interest of both them and the LDs to do it. It would also make the SNP less of a potential wedge for future Lab/Lib Govs
  • PedestrianRockPedestrianRock Posts: 589
    IanB2 said:

    PedestrianRock said:

    I think some of you are being overly pessimistic on the chances of a Labour majority.

    The Lib Dem factor is something that is really interesting and not being spoken about. These crazy polls that have Labour 50% and above seem to imply a big chunk of the Tory protest vote of years gone by, that might have just voted Lib Dem rather than Labour, are not doing so.

    Another factor - tactical voting. This played a vital part in Blair’s 1997 landslide, and was used to great effect in bye-election victories for the Lib Dems and Labour in 2021+2022. Theoretically, it should be possible to organise tactical voting on a much larger scale than at any election before nowadays. There was a lot of this encouraged in 2019 (https://tactical.vote/faq/ and others) but the distance between the offerings of Labour and the Lib Dems on issues such as Brexit, and what people thought of Corbyn, was far further apart than will be the case in 2024.

    A wildcard might be if the Lib Dems come out in favour of full rejoin for the next election - but it doesn’t look like they’ll do that, we can’t completely rule it out though.

    Barring something like that, a huge tactical voting operation in 2024 could very much make up for the difficulties that Labour would otherwise have had at winning majorities without Scotland

    The LibDems were at 10-14% in the runup to 1997, yet when the election came they did better than that as well as pulling in a decent seat haul from tactical voting.

    Right now people are saying ‘Labour’ because it seems a two-way contest and there is still a belief that the Tories might still win. If by the time the election comes, everyone can see - as in 1997 - that the Tories stand no chance of being re-elected, there will be a lot more willingness to cast a vote for other non-Tory parties where they stand a chance.
    Yes, true. Lib Dem surges in places like Esher and Walton, or Devon, etc.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 56,531
    Nigelb said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Russian troops have withdrawn from the key strategic town of Lyman in eastern Ukraine to avoid being surrounded by Ukraine's army, the Russian Ministry of Defense said Saturday.
    https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-10-01-22/h_d51cb295294b53ca8004e88aaefa385f

    Apart from all the ones left there when they blew up the bridge.
    Hitler said the Germans who had failed him deserved death….
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,139
    FrankBooth said:

    Can't deny that Meloni is charismatic. The tone gets a little scary at times though.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7qWwUUh1P_k

    'I can't define myself as Italian, christian, woman, mother. No. I must be citizen X, gender X, parent 1, parent 2. I must be a number. Because when I am only a number, when I no longer have an identity and roots, then I will be the perfect slave at the mercy of financial speculators.'

    I'm going to draw a line between two sets of politicians. On the one hand, there are those who realise that their plans are dependent on the willingness of free agents to buy their country's debt, invest in businesses in their country, and the like. As Mrs Thatcher famously said, you can't buck the market.

    On the other hand, there are those politicians who dislike the fact that they - and their government and country - are just one actor among many.

    Chavez, Orban, Putin and now Meloni seem to be falling into that second group.

    It's too early to say where Truss and Kwarteng will be.

    Remember kids: other people need to buy into your plans. You don't operate in a vacuum, and just because you head a government, it doesn't mean that other people have agency.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,192
    Omnium said:

    Peter_the_Punter said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Torbynism...

    "The Conservative Party has lept further out to the right than Jeremy Corbyn was out to the left."

    The Tories are entering their 'Jeremy Corbyn era,' Nick Boles tells @AyeshaHazarika https://twitter.com/TimesRadio/status/1576245085481598976/video/1

    Those who voted Tory 'to keep Corbyn out' must be feeling a bit embarrassed now.
    I think otherwise - it's probably the only good decision on which their sanity hangs.
    Corbyn looks sane compared to this lot
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,624
    CarlottaVance said:

    We thank the “Ministry of Defense” of 🇷🇺 for successful cooperation in organizing the "Izyum 2.0" exercise. Almost all russian troops deployed to Lyman were successfully redeployed either into body bags or into 🇺🇦 captivity. We have one question for you: Would you like a repeat?

    https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1576248108690079745

    Looking at the line of the cliffs and the smoke from both videos, I'd say they probably were. Might be wrong, though. Someone elsewhere said those secondaries might have been flares going off.
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 2,036
    Nigelb said:

    The claim by Russian-appointed Governor of Sevastopol is that a plane overshot runway. If it did, it seems then have run into an arms dump.
    https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1576229330736525314

    I thought this was supposed to be poor fire safety onsite. Russian soldiers smoking too close to an arms dump?
    Wasn't that what they were supposed to say?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,672
    rcs1000 said:

    Remember kids: other people need to buy into your plans. You don't operate in a vacuum, and just because you head a government, it doesn't mean that other people have agency.

    Some interesting passages in David Stockman’s book about Reaganomics…

    Not least the quote where he attacks “the false belief that in a capitalist democracy we can peer deep into the veil of the future and chain the ship of state to an exacting blueprint”.

    More here 👇🏻 https://twitter.com/skynews/status/1576237270205665281
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,139
    darkage said:

    I've become aware of some discussion amongst 'lefty lawyers' about the The Retained EU Law (Revocation and Reform) Bill that has just been placed before Parliament.

    "If passed, REULRR will effectively sweep away any and all EU laws that the Government hasn't actively decided to keep.

    It does this by:

    Repealing EU derived laws by the end of 2023. The government will be able to extend that deadline to 23 June 2026 (the tenth anniversary of the Brexit referendum) but can't further extend it.
    Repealing the principle of supremacy of EU law by the end of 2023. Currently, any EU decision reached before 1 January 2021 is binding on UK courts unless the government departs from it. However, this bill will subjugate all EU law in favour of UK law by default.
    Repealing directly effective EU law rights and obligations in UK law by the end of 2023; and
    Establishing a new priority rule requiring retained direct EU legislation to be interpreted and applied consistently with domestic legislation.

    https://imbusiness.passle.net/post/102hxsn/what-truss-did-on-my-holidays-its-much-more-than-just-the-mini-budget

    What this may mean, if I have understood it correctly, is that all those environmental EU regulations that have been transposed in to UK law by default and the government hasn't specifically decided to keep, will just be junked automatically, at the end of 2023.

    Interesting (but perhaps not suprising) that the tories have tried to bury this one amongst the chaos of the budget announcements.

    UK law often incorporates EU law: so we'll have a law covering (say) live animal transport, that has both the EU minimum requirements in, and then appropriate stuff for the UK. Are we going to junk all of it? How could that be done without passing a new Animal Transport Act? If we just repeal the existing law, does that mean we suddenly are without any regulation regarding the transport of animals in the UK?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,497
    Big crowd protesting.

    https://twitter.com/KhosroKalbasi/status/1576175547935526912
    Girls removing their hijab chant “freedom, freedom, freedom” at Mashhad Ferdowsi University , Oct1
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,876
    Beibheirli_C said:

    Omnium said:

    Peter_the_Punter said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Torbynism...

    "The Conservative Party has lept further out to the right than Jeremy Corbyn was out to the left."

    The Tories are entering their 'Jeremy Corbyn era,' Nick Boles tells @AyeshaHazarika https://twitter.com/TimesRadio/status/1576245085481598976/video/1

    Those who voted Tory 'to keep Corbyn out' must be feeling a bit embarrassed now.
    I think otherwise - it's probably the only good decision on which their sanity hangs.
    Corbyn looks sane compared to this lot
    I rather think it's the only feather in the Tory cap left that he certainly would have been worse. Far worse.

    (Even Labour think that)
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,791
    PedestrianRock said:

    I think some of you are being overly pessimistic on the chances of a Labour majority.

    The Lib Dem factor is something that is really interesting and not being spoken about. These crazy polls that have Labour 50% and above seem to imply a big chunk of the Tory protest vote of years gone by, that might have just voted Lib Dem rather than Labour, are not doing so.

    Another factor - tactical voting. This played a vital part in Blair’s 1997 landslide, and was used to great effect in bye-election victories for the Lib Dems and Labour in 2021+2022. Theoretically, it should be possible to organise tactical voting on a much larger scale than at any election before nowadays. There was a lot of this encouraged in 2019 (https://tactical.vote/faq/ and others) but the distance between the offerings of Labour and the Lib Dems on issues such as Brexit, and what people thought of Corbyn, was far further apart than will be the case in 2024.

    A wildcard might be if the Lib Dems come out in favour of full rejoin for the next election - but it doesn’t look like they’ll do that, we can’t completely rule it out though.

    Barring something like that, a huge tactical voting operation in 2024 could very much make up for the difficulties that Labour would otherwise have had at winning majorities without Scotland

    Hi PR. You new around here? If so, welcome and thanks for your thoughtful post. It encourages to write of the dilemma that I face here in Tewkesbury constituency.

    It is as you imagine solid Tory heartland with a long-established MP, Laurence Robertson who is a perfectly decent if somewhat inactive representative for his constituents. No problem for me who to vote for last time. I wasn't happy with Corbyn and Robertson is clearly going to win so I voted for the LD who came a distant but respectable second.

    It's more of a quandary now though with Labour touching 50% nationally. On that sort of polling, even the likes of Robertson are in danger, but the tactical voter needs to think carefully who to opt for. Would the LD or Labour Candidate be best placed to beat him?

    Not sure, and this kind of dilemma certainly makes predicting the outcome of the next GE kind of difficult.

    Any thoughts?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,105
    Probably wishful thinking, but if Truss is brought down very quickly, perhaps it will do our politics some good. If the political class (in all parties) see one of their own humiliated, then perhaps they might not be so eager to tell the voters what they want to hear.
  • eekeek Posts: 31,022
    darkage said:

    I've become aware of some discussion amongst 'lefty lawyers' about the The Retained EU Law (Revocation and Reform) Bill that has just been placed before Parliament.

    "If passed, REULRR will effectively sweep away any and all EU laws that the Government hasn't actively decided to keep.

    It does this by:

    Repealing EU derived laws by the end of 2023. The government will be able to extend that deadline to 23 June 2026 (the tenth anniversary of the Brexit referendum) but can't further extend it.
    Repealing the principle of supremacy of EU law by the end of 2023. Currently, any EU decision reached before 1 January 2021 is binding on UK courts unless the government departs from it. However, this bill will subjugate all EU law in favour of UK law by default.
    Repealing directly effective EU law rights and obligations in UK law by the end of 2023; and
    Establishing a new priority rule requiring retained direct EU legislation to be interpreted and applied consistently with domestic legislation.

    https://imbusiness.passle.net/post/102hxsn/what-truss-did-on-my-holidays-its-much-more-than-just-the-mini-budget

    What this may mean, if I have understood it correctly, is that all those environmental EU regulations that have been transposed in to UK law by default and the government hasn't specifically decided to keep, will just be junked automatically, at the end of 2023.

    Interesting (but perhaps not suprising) that the tories have tried to bury this one amongst the chaos of the budget announcements.

    Oh it's not just environmental laws - a lot of employment law is going as well

    And there won't be time to replace them so the plan is clearly to junk everything and see what they can get away with...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,301
    Beibheirli_C said:

    Omnium said:

    Peter_the_Punter said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Torbynism...

    "The Conservative Party has lept further out to the right than Jeremy Corbyn was out to the left."

    The Tories are entering their 'Jeremy Corbyn era,' Nick Boles tells @AyeshaHazarika https://twitter.com/TimesRadio/status/1576245085481598976/video/1

    Those who voted Tory 'to keep Corbyn out' must be feeling a bit embarrassed now.
    I think otherwise - it's probably the only good decision on which their sanity hangs.
    Corbyn looks sane compared to this lot
    Only economically.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,192
    rottenborough said:

    ydoethur said:

    rottenborough said:


    Steven Swinford
    @Steven_Swinford
    ·
    4h
    Times read:

    * Truss allies - including Cab ministers - alarmed. They worry public has made mind up

    * Truss frustrated with Treasury for failing to anticipate market turmoil

    ====

    Perhaps you shouldn't have sacked the permanent sec on the first morning, eh, Liz?

    That said, I am just filling in an application for a part-time job administering various qualifications for a government department.

    The sheer asininity of the questions and procedures they use is driving me up the wall. I have to say, no wonder they're not getting great candidates in the civil service if this is typical.
    Falling out with the Treasury as an institution is not going to end well I suspect given how little capital she has and how inexperienced she is. A more wily pol with a longer time might be able to slow engineer some change - she does not possess either of these.
    Can we just dispose of one point? Truss is NOT an INEXPERIENCED politician. She has been in govt for 12 years. It is not like she arrived in Westminster last week.

    She might be denser than Osmium, but she cannot claim inexperience of Cabinet govt.
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