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No overall majority back as favourite in the GE betting – politicalbetting.com

The chart above shows the changes in the the next general election overall majority betting and as can be seen LAB has a slipped a touch and now no overall majority is back as favourite.
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Labour majority also requires Truss to stay in place. She has proved so woeful so quickly, I don't see how she stays in place any length of time.
As I said before, the optics of the inevitability of Russia losing a newly minted bit of "Mother Russia" were always very odd. The million man army of newly minted recruits has done nothing to help.
It does look likely they will have no ability to stop Ukraine claiming back huge swathes of acreage in the east. The optics just get worse and worse.
If anybody else had disappointed Putin so badly, they would have disappeared out a sixth floor window. Maybe they still will.
But they really are so far ahead that even reduction in lead puts them in a very good place.
So the worse Truss performs the less likely it is there will be an overall Labour majority
Mr Eagles,
As Earl Beatty said at Jutland. "There seems to be something wrong with our defence today."
In recent weeks, ‘Ukraine fatigue’ has come up in focus groups with increased frequency.
Middle-of-road swing voters often say things like ‘why are we sending so much funding, when we need the money here at home?’.
Polling also backs this up👇. Important for leaders to monitor.
https://twitter.com/jamesjohnson252/status/1576204474200166400?cxt=HHwWgMCoocjn5t8rAAAA
Steven Swinford
@Steven_Swinford
·
4h
Times read:
* Truss allies - including Cab ministers - alarmed. They worry public has made mind up
* Truss frustrated with Treasury for failing to anticipate market turmoil
====
Perhaps you shouldn't have sacked the permanent sec on the first morning, eh, Liz?
Should be favourite.
Truss is fucked.
The economy is painful.
Labour are refreshed.
Even when they finally get rid of Liz in May 23, the Tories will only appoint a caretaker.
Forget it Jake, it’s Chinatown.
The sheer asininity of the questions and procedures they use is driving me up the wall. I have to say, no wonder they're not getting great candidates in the civil service if this is typical.
https://mobile.twitter.com/AlexPamnani/status/1576165976143327232
https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-10-01-22/h_d51cb295294b53ca8004e88aaefa385f
Logically the most likely reason is that there is no plan. The second most likely reason would be there is a plan but even they know it is shit.
Continued radio silence and saying trust us is not going to swing many minds in their favour and will swing many waverers against them.
If you look at the situation from the labour point of view, it is still a mountain to climb to get a majority.
They've got to win back the red wall and go further than that because of the problems in Scotland.
What Truss basically did last week is hand the red wall back to Labour.
The red wall were screwed over and taken advantage of by the labour party, now the tories have just gone and done the same thing.
Starmer probably doesn't need to do that much about the red wall. The problem is making headway in the south.
Maybe NOM fav if they get rid of her
If she’s not removed, then it will be rather more than a simple majority for Labour - all the way to possible extinction for the Conservative party.
Remember that Major’s government was (certainly in retrospect, and considering the slim majority available to him) actually rather competent.
It didn’t save him from an absolute shellacking at the polls.
A decent replacement for Truss might salvage the party; Labour might well then still get a good majority.
The job for the government, of course, is to explain why defending Ukraine is akin to defending western democracy. There is no safe alternative to our current policy.
Naturally I accept all the caveats stated by Mickey Droy and others on here, but I just don't see a route out of the quagmire for the Tories. What's the Plan?
The answer of course is that there ain't no F in Plan.
Labour have a clear message there now:
If you want to get rid of this hated government, vote SLAB. Don’t risk a vote on the SNP.
I am reasonably optimistic about the findings of Gordon Brown’s commission, too.
Regardless, Labour don't particularly need to "put distance between them and the Government". Truss and Kwarteng have done that for them, quite rapidly.
https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1576229330736525314
As for whether the Tories can then recover enough to deny Labour a majority, I actually doubt that. But they might be able to keep it to a small and uncomfortable majority as opposed to a whacking great one, which is what I suspect will be the case if they stick with Truss.
Truss isn’t just seen as bad communicator, or a bad policy maker, or a bad leader. She is seen as a combination of all three- heartless, tone deaf and incompetent. She cannot claw this back.
They need Truss out and a safe pair of hands in.
I keep staring at my crystal ball but it just stares glumly back,
Right now, there is no plan.
We kind of know what the original plan was:
1. Send a message that Britain was open for business via tax cuts and supply side reform.
2. Deliver a short-lived boom to get you through an election.
3. Post-election austerity.
Part 1 has blown up; they know they are going to have to go straight to Part 3 to make the books balance, though they don’t know precisely how.
Meanwhile, they are trying to figure out whether the public will accept the excuse that speculators / Putin / the woke IMF / the remoaner “orthodoxy” are to blame.
1.52 at present. Should be 1.1 or so.
The Lib Dem factor is something that is really interesting and not being spoken about. These crazy polls that have Labour 50% and above seem to imply a big chunk of the Tory protest vote of years gone by, that might have just voted Lib Dem rather than Labour, are not doing so.
Another factor - tactical voting. This played a vital part in Blair’s 1997 landslide, and was used to great effect in bye-election victories for the Lib Dems and Labour in 2021+2022. Theoretically, it should be possible to organise tactical voting on a much larger scale than at any election before nowadays. There was a lot of this encouraged in 2019 (https://tactical.vote/faq/ and others) but the distance between the offerings of Labour and the Lib Dems on issues such as Brexit, and what people thought of Corbyn, was far further apart than will be the case in 2024.
A wildcard might be if the Lib Dems come out in favour of full rejoin for the next election - but it doesn’t look like they’ll do that, we can’t completely rule it out though.
Barring something like that, a huge tactical voting operation in 2024 could very much make up for the difficulties that Labour would otherwise have had at winning majorities without Scotland
Scene. A committee room.
Tory MP 1: "I have an idea"
Tory MP 2: "You supported Liz Truss for leader. Sit down, and STFU, For ever."
Yes, we need to put Lord Frost, Daniel Hannan, the IEA, Crispin Odey et al on a slow boat to China.
🔌 From today, instead of paying a maximum of 28p per kWh for electricity - people will now pay 34p.
🛢️ And instead of paying a maximum of 7p per kWh for gas, they will now pay 10.3p
🏢 If you live in a purpose-built flat your average bill will be £1,750
🏘️ If you live in a mid-terraced house it will be around £2,350
🏘️ Those who live in semi-detached houses will pay around £2,650 a year
🏡 And detached properties will pay roughly £3,300 annually
I'm on the other side.
Let them enjoy a true libertarian paradise.
But I always thought that the Tories were the ones able to engineer quick changes of leader behind the scenes. If they’ve truly lost that ability, and the right-the-ship option of Wallace/Sunak isn’t available, then they’re pretty well doomed.
In those circumstances, then Labour majority ought to be about 2/1 on, at the very least.
Also - small matter of Brexit; Labour are now Brexiters and effectively a cleaned-up Tory Party in this respect.
Or isn’t that what you meant ?
"The Conservative Party has lept further out to the right than Jeremy Corbyn was out to the left."
The Tories are entering their 'Jeremy Corbyn era,' Nick Boles tells @AyeshaHazarika https://twitter.com/TimesRadio/status/1576245085481598976/video/1
Now a lot of that was already inevitable due to the global inflationary pressures. But the mini-budget puts the blame at the government's door for reckless measures that favoured high earners and bankers, while having the stupidity to not realise firing the permanent secretary to the Treasury and sidelining the OBR would result in a loss of market confidence in the context of a huge increase in spending and scattergun tax cuts.
A change in leader may slow the bleeding, but I don't think they can recover.
https://twitter.com/AndrewBowie_MP/status/1576226496251060227
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1576244285577510912
I can tell you why I'm not backing Labour. 1. Labour, 2. Starmer, 3. Sneaky LDs that always mess up my bets, 4. Whilst the Tories and Truss are currently completly hopeless they're simply not talented enough to stay that way.
@EmilySheffield | @benatipsos https://twitter.com/LBC/status/1576247887301853189/video/1
https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1576248108690079745
Are they the same bang ? Not entirely clear.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7qWwUUh1P_k
'I can't define myself as Italian, christian, woman, mother. No. I must be citizen X, gender X, parent 1, parent 2. I must be a number. Because when I am only a number, when I no longer have an identity and roots, then I will be the perfect slave at the mercy of financial speculators.'
Right now people are saying ‘Labour’ because it seems a two-way contest and there is still a belief that the Tories might still win. If by the time the election comes, everyone can see - as in 1997 - that the Tories stand no chance of being re-elected, there will be a lot more willingness to cast a vote for other non-Tory parties where they stand a chance.
"If passed, REULRR will effectively sweep away any and all EU laws that the Government hasn't actively decided to keep.
It does this by:
Repealing EU derived laws by the end of 2023. The government will be able to extend that deadline to 23 June 2026 (the tenth anniversary of the Brexit referendum) but can't further extend it.
Repealing the principle of supremacy of EU law by the end of 2023. Currently, any EU decision reached before 1 January 2021 is binding on UK courts unless the government departs from it. However, this bill will subjugate all EU law in favour of UK law by default.
Repealing directly effective EU law rights and obligations in UK law by the end of 2023; and
Establishing a new priority rule requiring retained direct EU legislation to be interpreted and applied consistently with domestic legislation.
https://imbusiness.passle.net/post/102hxsn/what-truss-did-on-my-holidays-its-much-more-than-just-the-mini-budget
What this may mean, if I have understood it correctly, is that all those environmental EU regulations that have been transposed in to UK law by default and the government hasn't specifically decided to keep, will just be junked automatically, at the end of 2023.
Interesting (but perhaps not suprising) that the tories have tried to bury this one amongst the chaos of the budget announcements.
* or other gender neutral germinal organs.
https://www.instagram.com/reel/CjDoYXYo_qz/?igshid=MDJmNzVkMjY=
https://twitter.com/bmay/status/1576206901645258752/photo/1
On the other hand, there are those politicians who dislike the fact that they - and their government and country - are just one actor among many.
Chavez, Orban, Putin and now Meloni seem to be falling into that second group.
It's too early to say where Truss and Kwarteng will be.
Remember kids: other people need to buy into your plans. You don't operate in a vacuum, and just because you head a government, it doesn't mean that other people have agency.
Wasn't that what they were supposed to say?
Not least the quote where he attacks “the false belief that in a capitalist democracy we can peer deep into the veil of the future and chain the ship of state to an exacting blueprint”.
More here 👇🏻 https://twitter.com/skynews/status/1576237270205665281
https://twitter.com/KhosroKalbasi/status/1576175547935526912
Girls removing their hijab chant “freedom, freedom, freedom” at Mashhad Ferdowsi University , Oct1
(Even Labour think that)
It is as you imagine solid Tory heartland with a long-established MP, Laurence Robertson who is a perfectly decent if somewhat inactive representative for his constituents. No problem for me who to vote for last time. I wasn't happy with Corbyn and Robertson is clearly going to win so I voted for the LD who came a distant but respectable second.
It's more of a quandary now though with Labour touching 50% nationally. On that sort of polling, even the likes of Robertson are in danger, but the tactical voter needs to think carefully who to opt for. Would the LD or Labour Candidate be best placed to beat him?
Not sure, and this kind of dilemma certainly makes predicting the outcome of the next GE kind of difficult.
Any thoughts?
And there won't be time to replace them so the plan is clearly to junk everything and see what they can get away with...
She might be denser than Osmium, but she cannot claim inexperience of Cabinet govt.