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Starmer’s speech gets a good reception – politicalbetting.com

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  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,968
    edited September 2022

    It's already going to work out a lot cheaper than 60bn. Thank goodness.
    You think the £220B+ of freezing bills is going to work out cheaper than £60B?

    Firstly. Ignore the front of the Telegraph - the Telegraph is lying to you - remember how the paper was summoned up on Yes Minister “they think we are being controlled by a foreign country and permanently angry about it”.

    It’s not the £2B top rate tax cut that bothers economists and markets everywhere they want reversed, it’s the other £218B+ of uncosted unmitigated borrowing they rightly find incredible.

    Secondly, you think you can do what the US does and get away with it like they they do - here’s the twist - you can’t. UK can’t get away with the same policy tricks the US gets away it, we can’t copy their successes, you just have to suck it down that you can’t.

    That in a nutshell is it.

    Any questions.
  • PeterM said:

    I fear we may be at march in the threads film...the nuclear exchange occurred at the end of may so we may get a nice christmas present
    Here is another way to look at it. Putin lets off steam by blowing a gas pipe. US doesn't respond to this but makes it clear where the red lines are. Both sides happy - Russia can show to its domestic audience it's tweaking the West, the West doesn't get a nuclear incident.

    Where you should be scared is if Russia does something serious and is open about it.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,110
    edited September 2022
    I imagine there’s some (modest) concern that the UK’s problems could trigger a wider contagion.

    As others have pointed out, the UK’s net position is not so different from various EU countries or indeed the US.

    Liz and Kwasi have totally bungled it, they continue to bungle it, and to be honest the best outcome for the UK is that they resign tomorrow.

    That’s not going to happen, so we are in for an incredibly unpleasant time. A property crash is no longer unlikely. Recourse to the IMF is of course unlikely but no longer impossible.

    Meanwhile, the government are already effectively planning a 10 or 15% cut in the NHS budget in real terms.
  • Scott_xP said:

    🚨 Moody's rating agency tonight warns the UK's new fiscal policy regime is "credit negative".
    "A sustained confidence shock arising from market concerns over the credibility of the government's fiscal strategy...could permanently weaken the UK's debt affordability"
    https://twitter.com/MehreenKhn/status/1574879376801497089/photo/1

    Give it six months and Moody's will have changed its tune. That is what most financial analysts do.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    edited September 2022
    PeterM said:

    I fear we may be at march in the threads film...the nuclear exchange occurred at the end of may so we may get a nice christmas present
    I'm banking on not getting irradiated by fallout from a strike on Mildenhall/Lakenheath. The usual prevailing wind would take the core fallout from a 250kt strike annoyingly close
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,920
    edited September 2022

    It’s not complicated. UK gov proposes £220B of expensive borrowing promising to give much away to those who don’t need it. And who came up with the idea of doing such a stupid thing, becuase an aggressive extension of windfall tax would have brought in £30B tops before hitting investment - saying anything different would have been Starmer and Reeves looking you in the face and lying - hence they talked about 6months worth not probable through life costs.

    Other countries start with different models of providing energy, more quasi state owned than us for example. But the key thing here is the UK government could last Friday have announced the borrowing for freeze, could have put it through the OBR, could have not announced the £45B growth push instead announced windfall tax extension, and talked about plans to balance books in medium term, and STILL the markets would have reacted the way they did, still home grown and foreign economists calling it to big a borrowing hit for the freeze programme - because, IT IS. We should tackle the bills problem with one of the less regressive, better targeted much cheaper options available.
    Well, if the government is going to be handing ridiculous bungs for the best-off, the argument for them being able to pay their fare share on energy certainly increases massively in relevance there. To the extent that we seem to have a dog's dinner of an essentially Boris policy combined with the more aggressive Trussonomics policy of handing money straight to the rich on top, I agree with you there.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,968

    Well, if the government is going to be handing ridiculous bungs for the best-off, the argument for them paying their fare share certainly increases there. To the extent that we seem to have a dog's dinner of an essentially Boris policy combined with the more aggressive Trussonomics policy of handing money straight to the rich on top, I agree with you there.
    No worries 👍🏻
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,814

    Here is another way to look at it. Putin lets off steam by blowing a gas pipe. US doesn't respond to this but makes it clear where the red lines are. Both sides happy - Russia can show to its domestic audience it's tweaking the West, the West doesn't get a nuclear incident.

    Where you should be scared is if Russia does something serious and is open about it.
    Kylo Ren throwing a tantrum and committing racquet abuse with his lightsaber.

    Putin has the capacity to cause a multi trillion dollar problem for the west and think that if he’s smart or reckless enough he might even get away with it. I am not attracted to equities right now certainly. But I still think we’ll wake up one day to the sudden news that he’s dead.

  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277

    You think the £220B+ of freezing bills is going to work out cheaper than £60B?

    Firstly. Ignore the front of the Telegraph - the Telegraph is lying to you - remember how the paper was summoned up on Yes Minister “they think we are being controlled by a foreign country and permanently angry about it”.

    It’s not the £2B top rate tax cut that bothers economists and markets everywhere they want reversed, it’s the other £218B+ of uncosted unmitigated borrowing they rightly find incredible.

    Secondly, you think you can do what the US does and get away with it like they they do - here’s the twist - you can’t. UK can’t get away with the same policy tricks the US gets away it, we can’t copy their successes, you just have to suck it down that you can’t.

    That in a nutshell is it.

    Any questions.
    Interesting point re your last paragraph . The US being the worlds reserve currency and their huge economy gives them much more flexibility even though their national debt is huge .

    Whether people like it or not the markets will give their judgement on Truss and co’s policies . The UK cannot afford a run on the pound given there’s already huge inflationary pressures . This point seems to have missed those in no 10 and 11 . Sunak has been proven right , unfortunately the Tory membership has inflicted the clueless Maggie clone on the UK and many are now going to suffer because of this .
  • It’s ironic that folks think Rishi was “right”.

    No, he was still wrong, it’s just he was right about *this*.

    In truth, the Tory Party are ideologically bankrupt after Brexiting for a mess of pottage.
  • PeterM said:
    Russia tries a nuclear attack and Putin gets whacked - if not by the internal factions then by the Chinese who can easily see such a step would lead to Japan / SK / Taiwan going nuclear.

    And if Russia is about to launch nukes, it is a bit strange to be sending their Strategic Missile Force troops to be shoring up the front line:

    https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1574404206257180672
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,245
    edited September 2022
    RobD said:

    Labour conference week, so she should be keeping a low profile.
    I've got to say, I suspect rebel Tory MPs are grossly underestimating the reception Truss will get at the Tory conference next week.

    She's doing exactly what it said on the tin. That isn't what I want, and it fairly clearly isn't sensible. But it is very much what the Tory selectorate wanted. The argument "Rishi woz right" just isn't going to go down as they think.

    Heads down and make the best of it is the only realistic choice for a Tory MP who is sceptical about it all. She'll lead the Conservatives into the next election, and they've just got to hang together or hang separately.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,841
    nico679 said:

    Interesting point re your last paragraph . The US being the worlds reserve currency and their huge economy gives them much more flexibility even though their national debt is huge .

    Whether people like it or not the markets will give their judgement on Truss and co’s policies . The UK cannot afford a run on the pound given there’s already huge inflationary pressures . This point seems to have missed those in no 10 and 11 . Sunak has been proven right , unfortunately the Tory membership has inflicted the clueless Maggie clone on the UK and many are now going to suffer because of this .
    Collapse of the £ now a news item on CNN and NPR
  • I've got to say, I suspect rebel Tory MPs are grossly underestimating the reception Truss will get at the Tory conference next week.

    She's doing exactly what it said on the tin. That isn't what I want, and it fairly clearly isn't sensible. But it is very much what the Tory selectorate wanted. The argument "Rishi woz right" just isn't going to go down as they think.

    Heads down and make the best of it is the only realistic choice for a Tory MP who is sceptical about it all. She'll lead the Conservatives into the next election, and they've just got to hang together or hang separately.
    Most Tory MPs don’t have the intellectual ability to actually understand what is going on.

    They do know however, that Truss has almost certainly lost the next election and that a seize-up of the mortgage market is not a good thing.

    The conference will be fascination to watch.
    Truss takes on the world, while depressed MP clap robotically, fighting to suppress nausea.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,401

    The commentary from the US is somewhat odd. Maybe we have overreacted somewhat? I notice that Paul Krugman and Simon Wren Lewis, two economists who I don't ever remember saying much good about the Conservative party think that a Sterling crisis is unlikely. Krugman saying that the emails he was getting from city economists said their main problem was that the budget was 'moronic.'

    Krugman, whilst implacably against Brexit, said immediately that his fellow economists’ predictions of doom were vastly overdone. He may be biased, but he does have a sense of proportion.

    Simon Wren Lewis, being a former economic advistor to Corbyn, presumay is relaxed about market turmoil!
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,924
    I find it incredible that the unelected IMF thinks it can criticise an elected government when it implements its tax policies. Astonishing really.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792

    Exactly.

    The bit, rather big bit, the markets and the IMF, other leading economists around the world are heated about, was actually somehow hidden last Friday domestically in our country by the row over Gordon Brown’s outgoing trick present for George Osborne from 2010 being, courageously as they say in Yes Minister, binned.

    UK politics has sleep walked into this stupid unnecessary and expensive freeze policy - the Boris administration and Treasury seem to have done nothing to have helped the new government by warning them about it and giving them alternatives, Lib Dems and Labour initially proposed it, and have made a huge mistake by failing to publicly announce they changed their minds, because they own it too now. Labour and Lib Dems own this run on the pound as much as the Tories because it’s their stupid freeze policy that is causing it.




    LuckyGuy is ruffled by foreign economists calling
    it mad and regressive, then listen to all our home grown economists in our own think tanks, most of whom have called it mad and regressive at every stage themselves.

    Eabhal said:

    Also, what is the PB consensus on who did Nordstream? Aliens? David Miliband? Mark Reckless?

    Lord Falconer
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400

    Most Tory MPs don’t have the intellectual ability to actually understand what is going on.

    It's been a relief not having Dorries pop up every few minutes and share her wisdom. Unfortunate that now we have to cope with JRM thinking he's a serious player.
  • Andy_JS said:

    I find it incredible that the unelected IMF thinks it can criticise an elected government when it implements its tax policies. Astonishing really.

    One imagines you find a lot of things “incredible” these days.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,286
    Andy_JS said:

    I find it incredible that the unelected IMF thinks it can criticise an elected government when it implements its tax policies. Astonishing really.

    They had to apologise last time.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,401
    Andy_JS said:

    I find it incredible that the unelected IMF thinks it can criticise an elected government when it implements its tax policies. Astonishing really.

    The IMF admitted, in an internal enquiry, that they helped bail out Greece because, ideologically, they believed in the single currency.
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,245
    edited September 2022

    Most Tory MPs don’t have the intellectual ability to actually understand what is going on.

    They do know however, that Truss has almost certainly lost the next election and that a seize-up of the mortgage market is not a good thing.

    The conference will be fascination to watch.
    Truss takes on the world, while depressed MP clap robotically, fighting to suppress nausea.
    If they feel that way (and I suspect they are right to) then they have a couple of years to suss out alternative job options. Meanwhile, the only credible option is not to rock the boat, hope they are wrong and, short of that, hope that it's 1974 rather than 1997.

    All this stuff about further changes of leader or radical changes of policy is away with the fairies nonsense. They've made their bed and must lie in it - the alternatives aren't realistic.
  • That’s very malicious wording

    High rates “not seen since the financial crisis” implies the financial crisis caused high rates

    Quite the opposite!
    That is a quote from a pro-Truss source, during the Conservative "leadership" campaign, lampooning (or so he thought) her opponents for saying her expressed economic policies were irresponsible.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    IanB2 said:

    Collapse of the £ now a news item on CNN and NPR
    We’ve had falls in the pound before but what makes this much worse is the timing , so a perfect storm and Truss and co decided to go sailing at that point ! They now have a choice to u-turn on the tax cuts which won’t happen , to bring in cuts to services or see the BOE raise interest rates much higher than would have been the case to support the pound . Standing there cutting services after you’ve just given unnecessary tax cuts to the richest would look horrendous to most people which leaves the interest rate hikes as the likely scenario .
  • If they feel that way (and I suspect they are right to) then they have a couple of years to suss out alternative job options. Meanwhile, the only credible option is not to rock the boat, hope they are wrong and, short of that, hope that it's 1974 rather than 1997.

    All this stuff about further changes of leader or radical changes of policy is away with the fairies nonsense. They've made their bed and must lie in it - the alternatives aren't credible.
    Obviously I have no time for Tory MPs.
    The problem is that the bed they’ve made is our bed.

    For the sake of the country, Truss and Kwasi need to be replaced, with someone who doesn’t act like they are addicted to turps.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,848
    For what it's worth, I don't think the Kwarteng/Truss plans are as bad as are being portrayed.

    For a start, with the exception of the removal of the 45% rate, most of the measures are targeted towards those on middle and lower incomes, in particular the abolition of the NI increase, and the changes to Stamp Duty.

    Now, there are quite a few things I would do differently. For example, I would have simplified taxes around the £100k mark (i.e. no more removal of the tax free allowance). And instead of a blanket cut to corporation tax, I would probably have increased investment incentives.

    Probably, as well, I would have looked to have limited the increase in the deficit. Because right now there is a very real risk that - if growth does not accelerate as hoped for - then the UK government will be forced into some measures to close the gap next year. And closing a gap is always a hell of a lot more painful than not letting it appear in the first place.
  • carnforth said:

    The IMF admitted, in an internal enquiry, that they helped bail out Greece because, ideologically, they believed in the single currency.
    How dare they.
    Anyone would think the Euro was in some sense a systemic part of the world’s financial system.
  • DynamoDynamo Posts: 651
    edited September 2022
    Andy_JS said:

    I find it incredible that the unelected IMF thinks it can criticise an elected government when it implements its tax policies. Astonishing really.

    The IMF is a treaty organisation. You can ask your MP to push for Britain to renege on the treaty or to propose a review of it or for the IMF's board to sack its managing director.

    You might as well say the Bank of England is unelected.

    Is it astonishing that UNESCO or the IAEA ever criticise governments?

  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,401

    How dare they.
    Anyone would think the Euro was in some sense a systemic part of the world’s financial system.
    Well, they seemed to think it was a mistake. That was the conclusion of the report. But maybe you’ve had enough of experts.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    I can only assume that Moon Rabbit is enjoying an intimate affair this evening with a bottle of Stoli.

    The idea that the government’s latest global megashambles is Angela Rayner’s fault is one for the album.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,848
    Andy_JS said:

    I find it incredible that the unelected IMF thinks it can criticise an elected government when it implements its tax policies. Astonishing really.

    The World Bank, the IMF, UNESCO, etc., all criticise governments from time-to-time.

    In the former two cases, their remit includes published research on financial stability.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,848
    RobD said:

    Seems obvious to me that it was Russia. They aren't going to have much use for a gas pipeline going to Europe for much longer.
    Cui Bono is Gazprom: because otherwise they are on the hook for tens of billions of damages.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    Andy_JS said:

    I find it incredible that the unelected IMF thinks it can criticise an elected government when it implements its tax policies. Astonishing really.

    I’m not a big fan of the IMF but that doesn’t excuse the shambles Truss and Kwarteng have made of these tax cuts , it was the height of arrogance to ignore advice and refuse to publish anything to support these .
  • Obviously I have no time for Tory MPs.
    The problem is that the bed they’ve made is our bed.

    For the sake of the country, Truss and Kwasi need to be replaced, with someone who doesn’t act like they are addicted to turps.
    The route to do that is via the next election.

    I agree with the thrust of what you say, but ultimately it's rhetoric. This is a betting site, and we're trying to predict what can happen and will happen in the real world. Tory MPs turning round and saying "oh yeah, you're right", and doing something that plunges themselves into further chaos whilst offering limited chance of a better outcome, is just not really on the cards.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,110
    edited September 2022
    carnforth said:

    Well, they seemed to think it was a mistake. That was the conclusion of the report. But maybe you’ve had enough of experts.
    I’m fine with experts.
    I mostly ignore conspiracy theorists and right wing lunatics though.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,848
    moonshine said:

    Banking systems of Ghana and Egypt have run out of foreign currency as a direct consequence of the Fed’s irrational hawkishness. Places that really are vulnerable to currency crises. Probably there are others that I’m not as familiar with. The world today is a bizarre place that is for sure. It’s not helped by certain posters thinking they are clever pasting glib tweets that shine no light whatsoever.
    It's not just the Fed's policy, it's also high energy prices. If you're -say- Pakistan, then your USD foreign reserves are being annihilated by the increased cost of importing coal and gas.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,401

    I’m fine with experts.
    I mostly ignore conspiracy theorists and right wing lunatics though.
    I salute you for your contribution to “call another poster thick or autistic day” here on pb.com. I have not contributed yet, and time is short.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792

    I’m fine with experts.
    I mostly ignore conspiracy theorists and right wing lunatics though.

    Strange, then, that you choose to spend so much time on here

  • carnforth said:

    I salute you for your contribution to “call another poster thick or autistic day” here on pb.com. I have not contributed yet, and time is short.
    Your contributions are eloquent unto themselves.

  • Strange, then, that you choose to spend so much time on here

    Lol. They are mostly pretty harmless.
    It is fascinating though how the current events shine a light on the truly batshit.
  • As you know, the issue is not with individual measures.

    The issue is with a seeming disregard for affordability, inflation risk, and scrutiny/challenge from institutions (OBR, Treasury).
    Perhaps the roles of Prime Minister and Chancellor are themselves just vestiges of an antiquated system and too risky to be entrusted to politicians who might have their own ideas. In this day and age, can it really be right not to leave it to the experts?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,333
    edited September 2022

    Perhaps the roles of Prime Minister and Chancellor are themselves just vestiges of an antiquated system and too risky to be entrusted to politicians who might have their own ideas. In this day and age, can it really be right not to leave it to the experts?
    Italy currently has a technocratic PM, Mario Draghi, a former economics professor, Goldman Sachs Vice President and ECB President. However the Italians have just voted his government out in favour of the populist right led by the opposition Brothers of Italy who were never part of his coalition government
  • DumbosaurusDumbosaurus Posts: 825
    edited September 2022
    Ratters said:

    Report from the gilt market...

    The fall in prices has created a lot of forced sellers, as pension funds bought government bonds using leverage. That needs to be collateralised daily and the speed and size of the moves (completely unprecedented) means many are struggling to sell other assets in time. That forced selling pushes prices down further and exacerbates the problem.

    This is spiraling out of control and will only get worse without intervention. Absent that, this could end up massively increasingly the deficit of UK DB Pension Funds and removing what buyers the government already had for its debt.

    In short, the government is fucked.

    I don't understand this. Why are pension funds buying gilts using leverage? Presumably they couldn't borrow at the same rate as government. Thus holding until maturity would be a loss. So only way this makes sense is short-medium term speculation on longer term rates curve. In which case they made a bad trade, oh well.

    Is there something I'm missing here?

    Paging @rcs1000 and other sober financial types.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,841

    I don't understand this. Why are pension funds buying gilts using leverage? Presumably they couldn't borrow at the same rate as government. Thus holding until maturity would be a loss. So only way this makes sense is short-medium term speculation on longer term rates curve. In which case they made a bad trade, oh well.

    Is there something I'm missing here?

    Paging @rcs1000 and other sober financial types.
    Pensions trustees can’t just gamble by investing in whatever they think will deliver the highest return. They have legal responsibilities to their members to safeguard against excessive risk and to deliver an income stream that is reliable, predictable and safe, projected many years into the future. Government bonds consequently form a significant part of most funds, particularly the more mature ones.
  • Setser…

    https://twitter.com/brad_setser/status/1574919621269929985?s=46&t=aJKcfLzj8ADwTz_KCa-rCA

    The UK looks to be experiencing a form of the kind of crisis that Nouriel Roubini and I posited that the United States could face back in our (in)famous 2005 paper –

    1/
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,848

    Setser…

    https://twitter.com/brad_setser/status/1574919621269929985?s=46&t=aJKcfLzj8ADwTz_KCa-rCA

    The UK looks to be experiencing a form of the kind of crisis that Nouriel Roubini and I posited that the United States could face back in our (in)famous 2005 paper –

    1/

    I saw that earlier, and while I don't agree 100%, it's a fascinating thread from a smart guy.
  • WillGWillG Posts: 2,366
    rcs1000 said:

    I saw that earlier, and while I don't agree 100%, it's a fascinating thread from a smart guy.
    The fundamental problem at the root of all this is the fact the UK borrowed as a country, year after year after year. We needed to balance the books in the national accounts a long time ago. That meant less government borrowing, yes, but also more private saving and more regulation of the financial sector.

    I often wonder if monetary policy should switch to increasing interest rates for contractionary policy and helicopter money for expansionary policy. The US system for COVID money shows it is very effective at increasing inflation where needed.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,968
    edited September 2022

    I can only assume that Moon Rabbit is enjoying an intimate affair this evening with a bottle of Stoli.

    The idea that the government’s latest global megashambles is Angela Rayner’s fault is one for the album.

    Before you keep it for the album, actually go and find where I said that. You will struggle.

    I didn’t. 😇

    I accused Labour as being on the same page as Truss and Kwarteng on the uneccesarily regressive and expensive bills hand out, that is main cause of the run on the pound. And I am right, and so much of PB tonight, waving fists at IMF - how dare they tell us we can’t cut a few of our own taxes - is just plain embarrassing. Do you PBers know how funny it is to read knowing the penny hadn’t dropped for so many of you yet?

    Here’s the cold sober truth. There isn’t a run on the pound and debt cost increase over the axing of browns old tax hike on most wealthy, so contentious in UK politics (just as it was designed to go off at whatever point in history it was axed) you are talking paltry billions, IMF ain’t bothered by that alone - the crisis is on our bill freeze policy worth thru life £200B+.

    Listen carefully Anabob, because it’s double embarrassing for you than just the IMF fist wavers after what you just posted - the bill freeze plan that has led to the world losing confidence in us isn’t Tory, Labour, Lib Dem and Tory are all signed up to about £200B borrowing to pay for it, only slight differences such as about a 6th of the cost Labour and Lib Dem will get from some windfall tax. Maybe not even that much.

    It’s a genuine crisis for all British politics. Labour, Lib Dem and Tory seem wedded to it, due to media pressure to grab anything and act, but UK economists, world economists and the markets are ranged against them. I’m against it too, it stinks as a policy compared to variable price cap. If UK can’t uturn - not on the tax cuts given last week, paltry stuff in the bigger picture of confidence in UK, but on the regressive, poorly targeted and far to expensive freeze plan for households, then the lack of confidence in us, and the world of pain it’s bringing to debt rates, extra inflation, expensive imports for industry, isn’t going away.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,924
    "Tinkering with Taxes Won’t Save Britain

    The country has much deeper-seated problems.
    Theodore Dalrymple"

    https://www.city-journal.org/tinkering-with-taxes-wont-save-britain
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,924
    "Truss learns the hard way that Britain isn’t America
    Reaganism is a good idea, but Reaganism without the dollar isn’t
    JANAN GANESH" (via G search)

    https://www.ft.com/content/bd511177-f2a3-4787-937a-f67856e09c4e
  • WillGWillG Posts: 2,366
    Andy_JS said:

    "Tinkering with Taxes Won’t Save Britain

    The country has much deeper-seated problems.
    Theodore Dalrymple"

    https://www.city-journal.org/tinkering-with-taxes-wont-save-britain

    'Beyond the correct rate of taxation, however, lie the much deeper problems of the country. For years, regardless of who was in power, government policy has been to import cheap unskilled or semi-skilled labor'

    This bit is true. Under Blair and Brown, this was open and explicit for both EU and non-EU migration. Under Cameron, it was restricted in the non-EU points system but continued to pour in via the EU. The end of FoM and May actually looked like sorting the issue, but then Boris opened it up again via the points system being made more lax. Truss is planning on doing it further. Whether red or blue, there is a policy of mass immigration.

    'while paying large numbers of people to remain economically inactive, in the process placing great strain on housing and public services through overpopulation. The government has subsidized socially irresponsible behavior to the point at which, for people at the lower end of the socioeconomic scale, such behavior is more profitable than work; these people depend on the government for everything.'

    This bit isn't true. The Tories threw so many hurdles in getting benefits and cut them so much, that it is extremely hard to do this any more.

    And the whole article misses the central problem long term. We don't save enough and we don't invest enough.
  • Dynamo said:

    (Snip)

    Am looking at your list of possible reasons why Russia might have done it. Can't see that 1,2,4 are even reasons. 3? Wouldn't they be telling the intended message recipient, i.e. presumably US and its satellites in NATO, what they already knew anyway? As for 5 - what costs? Why not just let the pipeline crumble?

    1,2 and 4 are reasons: they feed into the decision.
    3 tells the recipients of the message they are willing to do so.
    5 might get Gazprom off any contractual costs for non-deliver under force majeure clauses.

    They're certainly stronger arguments than the "The US did it" shrieks from the usual suspects. Especially when you factor in that Russia is routinely doing silly things daily at the moment.
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    edited September 2022
    A random comment from a random forum;

    “We need to remortgage in May. I feel physically sick. These 6% rates will cost us an extra £800 per month.

    Truss and Kwarteng should go to prison for what they have done. “

    https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/6390116/nationwide-announce-revised-interest-rates

    ….Somewhat suboptimal for the tories….
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    New thread
  • rcs1000 said:

    The World Bank, the IMF, UNESCO, etc., all criticise governments from time-to-time.

    In the former two cases, their remit includes published research on financial stability.
    Which is fine but what really grates is them commenting on the policy and what it does or doesn't do for inequality, in their opinion.

    That's none of their business.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792

    Before you keep it for the album, actually go and find where I said that. You will struggle.

    I didn’t. 😇

    I accused Labour as being on the same page as Truss and Kwarteng on the uneccesarily regressive and expensive bills hand out, that is main cause of the run on the pound. And I am right, and so much of PB tonight, waving fists at IMF - how dare they tell us we can’t cut a few of our own taxes - is just plain embarrassing. Do you PBers know how funny it is to read knowing the penny hadn’t dropped for so many of you yet?

    Here’s the cold sober truth. There isn’t a run on the pound and debt cost increase over the axing of browns old tax hike on most wealthy, so contentious in UK politics (just as it was designed to go off at whatever point in history it was axed) you are talking paltry billions, IMF ain’t bothered by that alone - the crisis is on our bill freeze policy worth thru life £200B+.

    Listen carefully Anabob, because it’s double embarrassing for you than just the IMF fist wavers after what you just posted - the bill freeze plan that has led to the world losing confidence in us isn’t Tory, Labour, Lib Dem and Tory are all signed up to about £200B borrowing to pay for it, only slight differences such as about a 6th of the cost Labour and Lib Dem will get from some windfall tax. Maybe not even that much.

    It’s a genuine crisis for all British politics. Labour, Lib Dem and Tory seem wedded to it, due to media pressure to grab anything and act, but UK economists, world economists and the markets are ranged against them. I’m against it too, it stinks as a policy compared to variable price cap. If UK can’t uturn - not on the tax cuts given last week, paltry stuff in the bigger picture of confidence in UK, but on the regressive, poorly targeted and far to expensive freeze plan for households, then the lack of confidence in us, and the world of pain it’s bringing to debt rates, extra inflation, expensive imports for industry, isn’t going away.
    Apologies, you said it was Rachel Reeves' fault –– equally as mad.
  • ...

    One imagines you find a lot of things “incredible” these days.
    You know it's totally out of order, but you don't have enough principles to say so because in this case the intervention accords with your political persuasions. That's fairly pathetic, but oh well.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,968

    Apologies, you said it was Rachel Reeves' fault –– equally as mad.
    The freeze policy is owned by all the main parties, the Tories seem to come to it last.

    The problem isn’t the tax cuts and cancelled proposed tax cuts announced last Friday - the problem is the world has woken up to the fact we are going to borrow near on a quarter of a trillion for a regressive policy of freezing bills for everyone.

    I made it clear in my posts in this thread, if Kwasi hadn’t cut a single penny, this crisis would have still happened.

    I know this is so because I worked it out before it happened. I sent a post/header I wrote myself to Mike Smithson ten days ago predicting exactly what was going to happen. I have been on the case the last two weeks that the freeze policy is wrong, we can’t get away with it, it is too expensive, it needs tweaking, we need a cheaper better directed solution than how it currently stands.
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