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Starmer’s speech gets a good reception – politicalbetting.com

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  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,662
    kinabalu said:

    Cyclefree said:

    kinabalu said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    kle4 said:

    Certainly getting testy around here.

    Yes it is rather.

    You should all be chilled like me, sitting next to a fire, feet up, while Husband and Daughter cook dinner.
    That definitely sounds like a plan, but I am on the wagon for a while. At a friend's a few days ago and I had too much wine, so I am off it for the rest of the month.

    I have a meal out on Thursday, so I might give in to temptation :smile:
    I did not mention wine .....
    It was the "chilled". That read subliminally as wine.
    I drink barely at all. I am invariably the designated driver.

    I chill by retreating into quiet and my imagination, either outside when gardening or inside when dark. Alcohol rarely adds anything to that.
    Ah ok. V good and hats off. For some reason - that I struggle to articulate - I had you down as stiff G and T plus at least one glass of vino with dinner. I have an uneasy relationship with alcohol myself. Learnt to modulate it now.
    I have a 2 nights of alcohol per week rule, with holidays excluded. Makes a drink a pleasure, and helps keep a clear head too.
  • kinabalu said:

    Paul Hollywood and George Clooney. Could be twins.

    No
  • Carnyx said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Here’s the full, critical IMF statement released tonight about the UK. “We do not recommend” big fiscal moves. Nov23 Budget a chance to “reevaluate” (ie change) the big tax cuts just announced. Yikes. https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1574852489433825280/photo/1

    Fuck them and their pathetic opining on whether the UK's tax changes will result in 'inequality' - Mind your own fucking business.
    Fine progressive fellows, the IMF. (Duh, am I really writing that??)
    If you find it pleasing that un-elected supranational bodies feel that they can overrule elected national Governments by Tweet, simply because in this instance, you like the cut of their socialistic gib, then yes, I suppose you are.

    Fuck these people.

    I hope the budget is full of tax cuts.
    Just so you and your chums can wreck the polity. It's not even as if you will be better off from the tax cuts, given the decrease in the value of the pound sterling.
    What is there to be wrecked, when we can do anything we want to as long as it's what 'they' wanted us to do anyway? What democracy is there? What 'Scottish independence' is there?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,840

    Scott_xP said:

    Here’s the full, critical IMF statement released tonight about the UK. “We do not recommend” big fiscal moves. Nov23 Budget a chance to “reevaluate” (ie change) the big tax cuts just announced. Yikes.
    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1
    574852489433825280/photo/1




    Fuck them and their pathetic opining on whether the UK's tax changes will result in 'inequality' - Mind your own fucking business.
    You ok, hun?
    I am perfectly fine - I'm having a normal reaction to foreign citizens who nobody here (or anywhere) elected trying to strike down the budget of the elected Government in my country. As it happens I think the budget is fairly flat-footed and uninspiring - it wouldn't have been my choice. But I'm damned if I am not supporting it against this background. These people are bad and dangerous for democracy, and need to be faced down.
    A Government that was n ot elected - certainly not that administration - and is supported by this sort of donor: what sort of autonomy and democracy do you call that?

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/sep/27/tory-donor-says-bets-against-uk-government-bonds-gifts-that-keep-giving
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,705

    Foxy said:

    "Make me Prime Minister" is great viewing post Bake Off. A sort of political Apprentice.

    Is there an episode where they have to make an economic announcement and try avoiding causing global systemic risks within a couple of days?
    All whilst calling themselves "Winners" or "The Alpha Team".
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,159
    Foxy said:

    "Make me Prime Minister" is great viewing post Bake Off. A sort of political Apprentice.

    Yes, have flowed onto that now. Unfortunately Andrew Pierce has just appeared.
  • Scott_xP said:

    “Some readers balked last month when I wrote that Truss might not last until the next election. Even I didn’t think she would trip so soon”
    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1574859603187273741

    Some of us on PB said there will be a summer leadership election again next year as she will be a disaster.

    I doubt there were many who predicted it would be over by xmas 2022. Anyone on here?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,840

    Carnyx said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Here’s the full, critical IMF statement released tonight about the UK. “We do not recommend” big fiscal moves. Nov23 Budget a chance to “reevaluate” (ie change) the big tax cuts just announced. Yikes. https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1574852489433825280/photo/1

    Fuck them and their pathetic opining on whether the UK's tax changes will result in 'inequality' - Mind your own fucking business.
    Fine progressive fellows, the IMF. (Duh, am I really writing that??)
    If you find it pleasing that un-elected supranational bodies feel that they can overrule elected national Governments by Tweet, simply because in this instance, you like the cut of their socialistic gib, then yes, I suppose you are.

    Fuck these people.

    I hope the budget is full of tax cuts.
    Just so you and your chums can wreck the polity. It's not even as if you will be better off from the tax cuts, given the decrease in the value of the pound sterling.
    What is there to be wrecked, when we can do anything we want to as long as it's what 'they' wanted us to do anyway? What democracy is there? What 'Scottish independence' is there?
    See my more recent post.
  • The Brexity types all seem to be on the wreck the hoose juice tonight.
  • Scott_xP said:

    “Some readers balked last month when I wrote that Truss might not last until the next election. Even I didn’t think she would trip so soon”
    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1574859603187273741

    I think he is quoting Janan Ganesh though.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,840

    The Brexity types all seem to be on the wreck the hoose juice tonight.

    Quite. "They don't want to buy my shite sandwich with a UJ on a cocktail stick in the middle! It's a democratic outrage!"
  • Carnyx said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Here’s the full, critical IMF statement released tonight about the UK. “We do not recommend” big fiscal moves. Nov23 Budget a chance to “reevaluate” (ie change) the big tax cuts just announced. Yikes.
    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1
    574852489433825280/photo/1




    Fuck them and their pathetic opining on whether the UK's tax changes will result in 'inequality' - Mind your own fucking business.
    You ok, hun?
    I am perfectly fine - I'm having a normal reaction to foreign citizens who nobody here (or anywhere) elected trying to strike down the budget of the elected Government in my country. As it happens I think the budget is fairly flat-footed and uninspiring - it wouldn't have been my choice. But I'm damned if I am not supporting it against this background. These people are bad and dangerous for democracy, and need to be faced down.
    A Government that was n ot elected - certainly not that administration - and is supported by this sort of donor: what sort of autonomy and democracy do you call that?

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/sep/27/tory-donor-says-bets-against-uk-government-bonds-gifts-that-keep-giving
    I call it the best system that we have, and I call him a symptom of where we are. I don't see him and his ilk having much luck shorting the Swiss franc. That's the future I want for the UK - but it's not where we are, and speculators taking the piss is just a useful roadsign.
  • The Brexity types all seem to be on the wreck the hoose juice tonight.

    Overturning the applecart was rather the point a bit though, wasn't it? A bit like you and your Saltire types.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    edited September 2022

    Scott_xP said:

    Here’s the full, critical IMF statement released tonight about the UK. “We do not recommend” big fiscal moves. Nov23 Budget a chance to “reevaluate” (ie change) the big tax cuts just announced. Yikes. https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1574852489433825280/photo/1

    Fuck them and their pathetic opining on whether the UK's tax changes will result in 'inequality' - Mind your own fucking business.
    Is that you Liz?
    Plainly it's too much to hope for that a remainer has a shred of appreciation for how utterly out of order it is for a series of figures from international bodies to seek to intervene in the domestic policies of the elected UK Government. If someone from the IMF kicked you in the face you'd send them a letter of thanks.
    Will you be saying that when the UK goes cap in hand for an IMF loan?
    It must be terrible to be so full of craven self-loathing.
    It’s not the package of tax cuts and push for growth in particular Lucky - it’s the amount of borrowing to freeze the energy market that has no costings done for it but involves vast swathes of all that borrowed money handed out to so many who don’t need hand out.

    I’m putting you in charge at the IMF Lucky with task to comment on what UK is borrowing for the freeze, and how they will be using the incredible amount of borrowed money - let’s be honest you would come out with exactly the same comment? Why? Becuase you don’t have to be paid by the IMF to say it, you can see for yourself right now that it’s quite simply the wrong bonkers route to have gone down.

    UK politics and the world outside is now waking up to the stupid thing the UK has done here with such massive borrowing for unnecessary hand outs to so many who don’t need it. The up to 45B of welcome with a few controversial tax cuts is mere fluff round the edges easily brushed off - the UKs mistake to borrow so much to freeze its energy market is so big it can tip the whole world into recession.
    Yes. The subtext of the IMF statement is 'we dont want you doing the energy bailout' hence the 'targetted' comments. Reversing 2 billion for the 45p rate will make zero difference to the macro picture.
    This needs to be made clear. These interventions, the markets etc are NOT about the 45p tax rate
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990

    The Brexity types all seem to be on the wreck the hoose juice tonight.

    Celebrating the Scotland result no doubt
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,662

    Foxy said:

    "Make me Prime Minister" is great viewing post Bake Off. A sort of political Apprentice.

    Is there an episode where they have to make an economic announcement and try avoiding causing global systemic risks within a couple of days?
    I think even this lot of Apprentices could pull off a better Special Financial Operation.

    Well, perhaps not Darius...
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,748
    What exciting times we live in. Stay kind to each other.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,876
    Evening all :)

    We now have nearly two months of confusion, obfuscation and pontification before we see what Kwarteng intends for public expenditure, In all the exhortations about growth, he has hardly mentioned public spending - the ending of the NI tax rise leaves a £12 billion gap in the financing of adult social care according to CIPFA - and if you want to lose the affluent, it's telling grandma and grandad their grandchild's nursery or playgroup has to close because the local council doesn't have the money to run it..

    This is back to that word again - "fairness". I don't know if it's a result of the Covid experience but we seem collectively to have moved on from the individualistic ethos of the 80s to a more collective sense of who we are and what we are. That manifests not only in terms of concerns over the environment but a range of other issues where we now "care" about the wider picture in a way we might not have done a few decades ago.

    Aspiration is therefore not just for us or for the family but for the wider world. We want our communities to be better just as we want our own lives to be better.

    Collectivism (not in the old-fashioned political sense) as a sense of a shared identity and history has been hugely relevant and prevalent of late - it defines us.

    Truss, Kwarteng and those who think as they do have failed (deliberately or otherwise) to recognise this change. It is no longer "dog eat dog" - greed is no longer good, Guizot is now passé.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    IMF warning comes as Deutsche Bank analysts flag that movements in 10Yr gilt yields, aka government borrowing costs, biggest since ‘76….when the U.K. had to approach IMF for bail out to contain fallout from aftermath of Barber boom https://twitter.com/DharshiniDavid/status/1574862228158816262/photo/1
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,090
    Nigelb said:

    carnforth said:

    Leon said:

    carnforth said:

    Scott_xP said:

    “Since Friday, the fiscal position has deteriorated by £20 billion a year…”

    Sir Charles Bean, former deputy governor at the Bank of England tells @cathynewman that investors see Kwasi Kwarteng’s package as “irresponsible”.

    https://www.channel4.com/news/two-thousand-dockers-go-on-strike-at-felixstowe-port

    Labour are on record agreeing with about £16 billion of that.
    But it is much easier for them to walk away from it. This way, they give the Tories no target to shoot at.
    I just had magnificent lamb leg steak, with cavolo nero flash fried with garlic and chili flakes, and M&S goosefat roast potatoes, washed down with Chateau de Bergey Fronsac 2019, an old skool Merlot and quite the bargain at £14, I'd say


    https://www.vivino.com/GB/en/chateau-du-bergey-cuvee-tradition-fronsac/w/4426827

    If you can buy it for £14: BUY

    Comfort food at the beginning of autumn. Mmmmmmmm
    Jealous. I am on Co-op Moldovan Merlot at £5.25. It ain't much, but it ain't bad.
    Covid anosmia, or something close to it, means that wine either tastes like alcoholic fruit juice (OK) or vinegar (not OK).
    On the upside, there’s no point in expensive wine anymore.
    Try sniffing things. Find something smelly and give it a good whiff. Practicing smelling seems to have some benefit in anosmia recovery.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,748
    Scott_xP said:

    IMF warning comes as Deutsche Bank analysts flag that movements in 10Yr gilt yields, aka government borrowing costs, biggest since ‘76….when the U.K. had to approach IMF for bail out to contain fallout from aftermath of Barber boom https://twitter.com/DharshiniDavid/status/1574862228158816262/photo/1

    Uk gilt auction was better covered today than the last such equivalent auction in August. Just what role do you think the IMF will be playing?
  • Scott_xP said:

    Here’s the full, critical IMF statement released tonight about the UK. “We do not recommend” big fiscal moves. Nov23 Budget a chance to “reevaluate” (ie change) the big tax cuts just announced. Yikes. https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1574852489433825280/photo/1

    Fuck them and their pathetic opining on whether the UK's tax changes will result in 'inequality' - Mind your own fucking business.
    Is that you Liz?
    Plainly it's too much to hope for that a remainer has a shred of appreciation for how utterly out of order it is for a series of figures from international bodies to seek to intervene in the domestic policies of the elected UK Government. If someone from the IMF kicked you in the face you'd send them a letter of thanks.
    Will you be saying that when the UK goes cap in hand for an IMF loan?
    It must be terrible to be so full of craven self-loathing.
    It’s not the package of tax cuts and push for growth in particular Lucky - it’s the amount of borrowing to freeze the energy market that has no costings done for it but involves vast swathes of all that borrowed money handed out to so many who don’t need hand out.

    I’m putting you in charge at the IMF Lucky with task to comment on what UK is borrowing for the freeze, and how they will be using the incredible amount of borrowed money - let’s be honest you would come out with exactly the same comment? Why? Becuase you don’t have to be paid by the IMF to say it, you can see for yourself right now that it’s quite simply the wrong bonkers route to have gone down.

    UK politics and the world outside is now waking up to the stupid thing the UK has done here with such massive borrowing for unnecessary hand outs to so many who don’t need it. The up to 45B of welcome with a few controversial tax cuts is mere fluff round the edges easily brushed off - the UKs mistake to borrow so much to freeze its energy market is so big it can tip the whole world into recession.
    That's not what the IMF statement says though - we must take it at its word. It is a political intervention. An economical intervention (which imo would also be un-called for in the circumstances) would talk about how leveraged the UK Government had become due to furlough followed by the energy freeze. This is a political intervention, because it takes aim at the perceived 'unpopular' part of the budget and targets that with its political judgements.

    And what the UK is doing is about avoiding recession. It is the Western Central Banks who've caused this inflation, and are now swerving so hard that a full on recession is guaranteed unless their aggressive tightening at the same time as we're having an energy crisis is ameliorated.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,668
    TimS said:

    Out in the Gulf of Mexico here lurks the rest of the week’s main non-Ukraine story:



    Storm surge and massive flooding with up to 600-700mm of rain around Tampa Bay, DeSantis gets to look heroic, seals the deal on getting the nomination in 2024.

    Yes, that's the wrong side of Florida for a storm to hit. Much worse than hitting the Atlantic coast. I'm not convinced anyone is going to come out of this looking "heroic".

    It has the air of one of those storms that outruns the forecast straight down to 920hPa although I see it has been forecast to move a bit faster in the latest run, which might help a little bit.

    Similar path to Hurricane Charley in 2004, if I recall.
  • Scott_xP said:

    Here’s the full, critical IMF statement released tonight about the UK. “We do not recommend” big fiscal moves. Nov23 Budget a chance to “reevaluate” (ie change) the big tax cuts just announced. Yikes. https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1574852489433825280/photo/1

    Fuck them and their pathetic opining on whether the UK's tax changes will result in 'inequality' - Mind your own fucking business.
    Is that you Liz?
    Plainly it's too much to hope for that a remainer has a shred of appreciation for how utterly out of order it is for a series of figures from international bodies to seek to intervene in the domestic policies of the elected UK Government. If someone from the IMF kicked you in the face you'd send them a letter of thanks.
    Will you be saying that when the UK goes cap in hand for an IMF loan?
    It must be terrible to be so full of craven self-loathing.
    It’s not the package of tax cuts and push for growth in particular Lucky - it’s the amount of borrowing to freeze the energy market that has no costings done for it but involves vast swathes of all that borrowed money handed out to so many who don’t need hand out.

    I’m putting you in charge at the IMF Lucky with task to comment on what UK is borrowing for the freeze, and how they will be using the incredible amount of borrowed money - let’s be honest you would come out with exactly the same comment? Why? Becuase you don’t have to be paid by the IMF to say it, you can see for yourself right now that it’s quite simply the wrong bonkers route to have gone down.

    UK politics and the world outside is now waking up to the stupid thing the UK has done here with such massive borrowing for unnecessary hand outs to so many who don’t need it. The up to 45B of welcome with a few controversial tax cuts is mere fluff round the edges easily brushed off - the UKs mistake to borrow so much to freeze its energy market is so big it can tip the whole world into recession.
    Yes. The subtext of the IMF statement is 'we dont want you doing the energy bailout' hence the 'targetted' comments. Reversing 2 billion for the 45p rate will make zero difference to the macro picture.
    This needs to be made clear. These interventions, the markets etc are NOT about the 45p tax rate
    One thing the Labour Party have done well in, is making all this about the 45p rate. Even though its utterly untrue.

    But politically, who can blame them? The Chancellor did rather make a rod for his own back with it.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,090

    Scott_xP said:

    NEW: Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng 'ignored warnings' from officials their mini-budget would spark market chaos - story by me, @BenGartside and @RichardVaughan1 https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/liz-truss-kwasi-kwarteng-warnings-mini-budget-market-chaos-1881554

    I should certainly damn well hope so.

    A change of direction will always cause instability, but that doesn't make it wrong. Of course Sir Humphrey will give warnings about that, if he didn't he wouldn't be doing his job. And if a politician went along with every warning they were ever given, they'd never be doing anything at all. Except they'd be warned against doing nothing too, so I suppose spontaneous combustion would be the only option left.
    A change in direction doesn't always cause instability. Have you been reading too much Turgenev or something?

    If disastrous sequlae isn't a cause to stop and re-think a course of action, what is?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    Scott_xP said:

    Here’s the full, critical IMF statement released tonight about the UK. “We do not recommend” big fiscal moves. Nov23 Budget a chance to “reevaluate” (ie change) the big tax cuts just announced. Yikes. https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1574852489433825280/photo/1

    Fuck them and their pathetic opining on whether the UK's tax changes will result in 'inequality' - Mind your own fucking business.
    Is that you Liz?
    Plainly it's too much to hope for that a remainer has a shred of appreciation for how utterly out of order it is for a series of figures from international bodies to seek to intervene in the domestic policies of the elected UK Government. If someone from the IMF kicked you in the face you'd send them a letter of thanks.
    Will you be saying that when the UK goes cap in hand for an IMF loan?
    It must be terrible to be so full of craven self-loathing.
    It’s not the package of tax cuts and push for growth in particular Lucky - it’s the amount of borrowing to freeze the energy market that has no costings done for it but involves vast swathes of all that borrowed money handed out to so many who don’t need hand out.

    I’m putting you in charge at the IMF Lucky with task to comment on what UK is borrowing for the freeze, and how they will be using the incredible amount of borrowed money - let’s be honest you would come out with exactly the same comment? Why? Becuase you don’t have to be paid by the IMF to say it, you can see for yourself right now that it’s quite simply the wrong bonkers route to have gone down.

    UK politics and the world outside is now waking up to the stupid thing the UK has done here with such massive borrowing for unnecessary hand outs to so many who don’t need it. The up to 45B of welcome with a few controversial tax cuts is mere fluff round the edges easily brushed off - the UKs mistake to borrow so much to freeze its energy market is so big it can tip the whole world into recession.
    Yes. The subtext of the IMF statement is 'we dont want you doing the energy bailout' hence the 'targetted' comments. Reversing 2 billion for the 45p rate will make zero difference to the macro picture.
    This needs to be made clear. These interventions, the markets etc are NOT about the 45p tax rate
    One thing the Labour Party have done well in, is making all this about the 45p rate. Even though its utterly untrue.

    But politically, who can blame them? The Chancellor did rather make a rod for his own back with it.
    Agreed. And given it contributes fuck all to growth its ridiculous.
    U turn now and show everyone the markets and IMF etc are interfering in the stuff they actually want and support
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,090
    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    Congratulations to @GiorgiaMeloni on her party's success in the Italian elections.

    From supporting Ukraine to addressing global economic challenges, the UK and Italy are close allies. 🇬🇧🇮🇹

    https://twitter.com/trussliz/status/1574476937015304192?s=46&t=UjLejN7sri8-lM915-SOwQ

    Tone deaf.

    Some cracking comments.

    Perhaps, but I think in good grace you should give Meloni half a chance.
    No doubt people said the same about Hitler.
    FFS. Meloni is not Hitler

    No more than ex-communist Nick Palmer is Pol Pot, nor many other senior Labour figures who dallied with Far Left politics when younger
    Absolutely right. People are being silly about the labelling here. In the bigger picture Our current UK government is to the right of Meloni’s, because UK electorate more right wing than italys.
    Indeed

    Tho I’m not sure the UK is further right than Italy

    You can hear Hard Right views expressed openly in Italy that you simply don’t in the UK

    FWIW I think all the western world is moving sharply to the right on matters of things like migration, even as they often become “left” in social attitudes, or perhaps more secular

    A complex picture
    Unfortunately many of the people we let in as refugees are criminals. Some beyond that are near so.

    The weird people that haunt traffic queues should all be sent in their way.
    Xenophobic nonsense. See https://www.globalcitizen.org/fr/content/these-are-the-facts-on-refugees-and-crime/ or https://erf.org.eg/app/uploads/2021/04/1618392168_799_1353558_1470.pdf , for example.

    So there are no immigrant crime communities here in the UK?

    I am very far from a xenophobe.
    You began talking about refugees. You've now switched to immigrants. The fact that you see them as the same thing speaks to your mindset.

    There is crime in all communities. The evidence presented demonstrates that there isn't more crime among refugees.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,662

    Nigelb said:

    carnforth said:

    Leon said:

    carnforth said:

    Scott_xP said:

    “Since Friday, the fiscal position has deteriorated by £20 billion a year…”

    Sir Charles Bean, former deputy governor at the Bank of England tells @cathynewman that investors see Kwasi Kwarteng’s package as “irresponsible”.

    https://www.channel4.com/news/two-thousand-dockers-go-on-strike-at-felixstowe-port

    Labour are on record agreeing with about £16 billion of that.
    But it is much easier for them to walk away from it. This way, they give the Tories no target to shoot at.
    I just had magnificent lamb leg steak, with cavolo nero flash fried with garlic and chili flakes, and M&S goosefat roast potatoes, washed down with Chateau de Bergey Fronsac 2019, an old skool Merlot and quite the bargain at £14, I'd say


    https://www.vivino.com/GB/en/chateau-du-bergey-cuvee-tradition-fronsac/w/4426827

    If you can buy it for £14: BUY

    Comfort food at the beginning of autumn. Mmmmmmmm
    Jealous. I am on Co-op Moldovan Merlot at £5.25. It ain't much, but it ain't bad.
    Covid anosmia, or something close to it, means that wine either tastes like alcoholic fruit juice (OK) or vinegar (not OK).
    On the upside, there’s no point in expensive wine anymore.
    Try sniffing things. Find something smelly and give it a good whiff. Practicing smelling seems to have some benefit in anosmia recovery.
    Mrs Foxy had covid 18 months ago, but her sense of smell eventually mostly recovered. She rather likes cheap Prosecco now, rather than the posh sparklers so saving a few bob.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,310

    Cyclefree said:

    No he isn't. He and I have had our disagreements but he is in reality a very nice person.

    I've never seen him be nice to anyone. This says a lot about your judge of character that you consider a bully to be nice. I've seen him people like him pick on my friends all my life, they are not nice. They're bullies. That is what they are.

    So you have sadly gone down in my estimation a lot, I am afraid to say.

    Now I'm off to the pub, sadly lost at mini golf.
    Well I have seen him be nice. To me and others. He has apologised when he has got things wrong or gone too far, which is something I value. And I have met him. So that is what I base my judgment on.

    I don't know why people bother to get into personal fights, to be honest. It is far easier to ignore unpleasant and hurtful remarks.

    Have a nice evening.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,159
    Nigelb said:

    carnforth said:

    Leon said:

    carnforth said:

    Scott_xP said:

    “Since Friday, the fiscal position has deteriorated by £20 billion a year…”

    Sir Charles Bean, former deputy governor at the Bank of England tells @cathynewman that investors see Kwasi Kwarteng’s package as “irresponsible”.

    https://www.channel4.com/news/two-thousand-dockers-go-on-strike-at-felixstowe-port

    Labour are on record agreeing with about £16 billion of that.
    But it is much easier for them to walk away from it. This way, they give the Tories no target to shoot at.
    I just had magnificent lamb leg steak, with cavolo nero flash fried with garlic and chili flakes, and M&S goosefat roast potatoes, washed down with Chateau de Bergey Fronsac 2019, an old skool Merlot and quite the bargain at £14, I'd say


    https://www.vivino.com/GB/en/chateau-du-bergey-cuvee-tradition-fronsac/w/4426827

    If you can buy it for £14: BUY

    Comfort food at the beginning of autumn. Mmmmmmmm
    Jealous. I am on Co-op Moldovan Merlot at £5.25. It ain't much, but it ain't bad.
    Covid anosmia, or something close to it, means that wine either tastes like alcoholic fruit juice (OK) or vinegar (not OK).
    On the upside, there’s no point in expensive wine anymore.
    Sorry to hear that. I had that with my Covid and it was both the worst symptom and the last to go (after 4 weeks). Hope it doesn't linger too long.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,587
    edited September 2022

    Scott_xP said:

    Here’s the full, critical IMF statement released tonight about the UK. “We do not recommend” big fiscal moves. Nov23 Budget a chance to “reevaluate” (ie change) the big tax cuts just announced. Yikes. https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1574852489433825280/photo/1

    Fuck them and their pathetic opining on whether the UK's tax changes will result in 'inequality' - Mind your own fucking business.
    Is that you Liz?
    Plainly it's too much to hope for that a remainer has a shred of appreciation for how utterly out of order it is for a series of figures from international bodies to seek to intervene in the domestic policies of the elected UK Government. If someone from the IMF kicked you in the face you'd send them a letter of thanks.
    Will you be saying that when the UK goes cap in hand for an IMF loan?
    It must be terrible to be so full of craven self-loathing.
    It’s not the package of tax cuts and push for growth in particular Lucky - it’s the amount of borrowing to freeze the energy market that has no costings done for it but involves vast swathes of all that borrowed money handed out to so many who don’t need hand out.

    I’m putting you in charge at the IMF Lucky with task to comment on what UK is borrowing for the freeze, and how they will be using the incredible amount of borrowed money - let’s be honest you would come out with exactly the same comment? Why? Becuase you don’t have to be paid by the IMF to say it, you can see for yourself right now that it’s quite simply the wrong bonkers route to have gone down.

    UK politics and the world outside is now waking up to the stupid thing the UK has done here with such massive borrowing for unnecessary hand outs to so many who don’t need it. The up to 45B of welcome with a few controversial tax cuts is mere fluff round the edges easily brushed off - the UKs mistake to borrow so much to freeze its energy market is so big it can tip the whole world into recession.
    Yes. The subtext of the IMF statement is 'we dont want you doing the energy bailout' hence the 'targetted' comments. Reversing 2 billion for the 45p rate will make zero difference to the macro picture.
    This needs to be made clear. These interventions, the markets etc are NOT about the 45p tax rate
    One thing the Labour Party have done well in, is making all this about the 45p rate. Even though its utterly untrue.

    But politically, who can blame them? The Chancellor did rather make a rod for his own back with it.
    Keeping 45p and removing the 100000 cliff-edge would have cost more, but been politically much more easily accepted.

    IIRC no one really cared when Cameron reduced the 50p rate to 45p, but perhaps I am mis-remembering.
  • TresTres Posts: 2,700

    So - what's the betting Truss u-turns on the 45%??

    She has huge form on u-turn on bonkers, rushed out ideas as we saw during the membership election not that the members noticed or seemed to care.

    The crazy thing in that the 45% think is only £2bn but people are making out like its the end of the world. Which is remarkable considering the sums thrown about on other things in recent years.

    £38bn pre-announced for reversing NI and CT changes, £60bn or so on Furlough, £150bn estimate for energy support, many hundreds of billions on Covid overall. They've been bandying tens and hundreds of billions around for years now all without much of a tremor, but just £2bn on the 45% change and its hysteria and meltdown apparently.

    It reminds me a bit of this scene with the Joker in the Dark Knight. His facial tics and gestures during the scene even seem similar to Kwasi's in that infamous clip of him at the funeral.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wkn7lO-nZGU
    I just did what I do best. I took your little plan and I turned it on itself. Look what I did to this market with a few billion pounds and a couple of bullet points. Hmmm? You know... You know what I've noticed? Nobody panics when things go "according to plan." Even if the plan is horrifying! If, tomorrow, I tell the press that, like, tens of billions will go on furlough, or hundreds of billions in energy prices will be blown up, nobody panics, because it's all "part of the plan". But when I say that one little old tax will be cut, well then everyone loses their minds. Introduce a little anarchy. Upset the established order, and everything becomes chaos. I'm an agent of chaos.
    the point is that the Chancellor said the £2bn on the 45% change was going to give a step change in growth - which was the batshit mental bit that had everyone scratching their heads, and he doubled down on it over the weekend.
  • RattersRatters Posts: 1,076
    edited September 2022
    Report from the gilt market...

    The fall in prices has created a lot of forced sellers, as pension funds bought government bonds using leverage. That needs to be collateralised daily and the speed and size of the moves (completely unprecedented) means many are struggling to sell other assets in time. That forced selling pushes prices down further and exacerbates the problem.

    This is spiraling out of control and will only get worse without intervention. Absent that, this could end up massively increasingly the deficit of UK DB Pension Funds and removing what buyers the government already had for its debt.

    In short, the government is fucked.
  • DynamoDynamo Posts: 651

    Dynamo said:

    The pipe sabotage is extraordinary. I don't see how Russia destroys its own means of leverage with Europe. I don't see how Ukraine has the capability - or would be able to act without American sponsorship. That seems to leave only one suspect.

    Who do you reckon?

    There are very few powers with the ability to do this - as you clearly recognise.
    USA obviously. Biden threatened to do it.

    Though you have to assume if it's them they have at least tried to cover their tracks and frame someone else up.
    * If it is, then we get WW3 and probably soon.
    * Whoever it is, if they keep at it then sooner or later they may get caught. Which would be waaay bigger than Gary Powers.
    * Internet cables and oil rigs are other possible targets.
    * Final observation: Russia may start carrying out black ops of a similar kind, not necessarily even in Europe.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,526



    A change in direction doesn't always cause instability. Have you been reading too much Turgenev or something?

    If disastrous sequlae isn't a cause to stop and re-think a course of action, what is?

    Wins a prize for the most erudite comment of the evening...
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,662

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    Congratulations to @GiorgiaMeloni on her party's success in the Italian elections.

    From supporting Ukraine to addressing global economic challenges, the UK and Italy are close allies. 🇬🇧🇮🇹

    https://twitter.com/trussliz/status/1574476937015304192?s=46&t=UjLejN7sri8-lM915-SOwQ

    Tone deaf.

    Some cracking comments.

    Perhaps, but I think in good grace you should give Meloni half a chance.
    No doubt people said the same about Hitler.
    FFS. Meloni is not Hitler

    No more than ex-communist Nick Palmer is Pol Pot, nor many other senior Labour figures who dallied with Far Left politics when younger
    Absolutely right. People are being silly about the labelling here. In the bigger picture Our current UK government is to the right of Meloni’s, because UK electorate more right wing than italys.
    Indeed

    Tho I’m not sure the UK is further right than Italy

    You can hear Hard Right views expressed openly in Italy that you simply don’t in the UK

    FWIW I think all the western world is moving sharply to the right on matters of things like migration, even as they often become “left” in social attitudes, or perhaps more secular

    A complex picture
    Unfortunately many of the people we let in as refugees are criminals. Some beyond that are near so.

    The weird people that haunt traffic queues should all be sent in their way.
    Xenophobic nonsense. See https://www.globalcitizen.org/fr/content/these-are-the-facts-on-refugees-and-crime/ or https://erf.org.eg/app/uploads/2021/04/1618392168_799_1353558_1470.pdf , for example.

    So there are no immigrant crime communities here in the UK?

    I am very far from a xenophobe.
    You began talking about refugees. You've now switched to immigrants. The fact that you see them as the same thing speaks to your mindset.

    There is crime in all communities. The evidence presented demonstrates that there isn't more crime among refugees.
    It is all part of our deficit problem. There was a time we used to export criminals all over the world.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,876

    TimS said:

    Out in the Gulf of Mexico here lurks the rest of the week’s main non-Ukraine story:



    Storm surge and massive flooding with up to 600-700mm of rain around Tampa Bay, DeSantis gets to look heroic, seals the deal on getting the nomination in 2024.

    Yes, that's the wrong side of Florida for a storm to hit. Much worse than hitting the Atlantic coast. I'm not convinced anyone is going to come out of this looking "heroic".

    It has the air of one of those storms that outruns the forecast straight down to 920hPa although I see it has been forecast to move a bit faster in the latest run, which might help a little bit.

    Similar path to Hurricane Charley in 2004, if I recall.
    In fact, moving quicker doesn't help as it won't allow as much time for wind shear to degrade the storm.

    Looks like a substantial strike for a large part for the western Florida coast - the actual landfall may be close to Tampa Bay/St Pete's but he impacts of rain and storm surge will be felt for hundreds of miles either side with incredible amounts of rain.

    The NHC (National Hurricane Center) pages carry plenty of information.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,507
    edited September 2022

    Scott_xP said:

    Here’s the full, critical IMF statement released tonight about the UK. “We do not recommend” big fiscal moves. Nov23 Budget a chance to “reevaluate” (ie change) the big tax cuts just announced. Yikes. https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1574852489433825280/photo/1

    Fuck them and their pathetic opining on whether the UK's tax changes will result in 'inequality' - Mind your own fucking business.
    Is that you Liz?
    Plainly it's too much to hope for that a remainer has a shred of appreciation for how utterly out of order it is for a series of figures from international bodies to seek to intervene in the domestic policies of the elected UK Government. If someone from the IMF kicked you in the face you'd send them a letter of thanks.
    Will you be saying that when the UK goes cap in hand for an IMF loan?
    It must be terrible to be so full of craven self-loathing.
    It’s not the package of tax cuts and push for growth in particular Lucky - it’s the amount of borrowing to freeze the energy market that has no costings done for it but involves vast swathes of all that borrowed money handed out to so many who don’t need hand out.

    I’m putting you in charge at the IMF Lucky with task to comment on what UK is borrowing for the freeze, and how they will be using the incredible amount of borrowed money - let’s be honest you would come out with exactly the same comment? Why? Becuase you don’t have to be paid by the IMF to say it, you can see for yourself right now that it’s quite simply the wrong bonkers route to have gone down.

    UK politics and the world outside is now waking up to the stupid thing the UK has done here with such massive borrowing for unnecessary hand outs to so many who don’t need it. The up to 45B of welcome with a few controversial tax cuts is mere fluff round the edges easily brushed off - the UKs mistake to borrow so much to freeze its energy market is so big it can tip the whole world into recession.
    Yes. The subtext of the IMF statement is 'we dont want you doing the energy bailout' hence the 'targetted' comments. Reversing 2 billion for the 45p rate will make zero difference to the macro picture.
    This needs to be made clear. These interventions, the markets etc are NOT about the 45p tax rate
    Exactly.

    The bit, rather big bit, the markets and the IMF, other leading economists around the world are heated about, was actually somehow hidden last Friday domestically in our country by the row over Gordon Brown’s outgoing trick present for George Osborne from 2010 being, courageously as they say in Yes Minister, binned.

    UK politics has sleep walked into this stupid unnecessary and expensive freeze policy - the Boris administration and Treasury seem to have done nothing to have helped the new government by warning them about it and giving them alternatives, Lib Dems and Labour initially proposed it, and have made a huge mistake by failing to publicly announce they changed their minds, because they own it too now. Labour and Lib Dems own this run on the pound as much as the Tories because it’s their stupid freeze policy that is causing it.

    LuckyGuy is ruffled by foreign economists calling it mad and regressive, then listen to all our home grown economists in our own think tanks, most of whom have called it mad and regressive at every stage themselves.
  • Ratters said:

    Report from the gilt market...

    The fall in prices has created a lot of forced sellers, as pension funds bought government bonds using leverage. That needs to be collateralised daily and the speed and size of the moves (completely unprecedented) means many are struggling to sell other assets in time. That forced selling pushes prices down further and exacerbates the problem.

    This is spiraling out of control and will only get worse without intervention. Absent that, this could end up massively increasingly the deficit of UK DB Pension Funds and removing what buyers the government already had for its debt.

    In short, the government is fucked.

    Or in short, its not a rational judgement on the policy based upon sound analysis, debate and reasoning.

    Its a self-fulfilling stampede led by hysteria, just like when the petrol forecourts ran out of petrol nationwide because a small handful of stations had run short during the switchover from E5 to E10 Unleaded and some dodgy misreporting of the situation.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,339
    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Here’s the full, critical IMF statement released tonight about the UK. “We do not recommend” big fiscal moves. Nov23 Budget a chance to “reevaluate” (ie change) the big tax cuts just announced. Yikes. https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1574852489433825280/photo/1

    Fuck them and their pathetic opining on whether the UK's tax changes will result in 'inequality' - Mind your own fucking business.
    Absolutely

    There seems to be a new upper middle class of western people who believe they have a right to opine, indeed overtly intervene, in the doings of freely elected democratic governments, when these people themselves - this self appointed clerisy - have absolutely no democratic remit at all

    Cf Ursula von der Leyen and the Italian elections

    Fuck them all. And all the UK charities likewise. Butt the fuck out, you stupid Guardianista twats

    The irony is, of course, that they generally drive events in the opposite way to which they intend. As with Brexit
    Nobody voted for this Kwazi Truss project. The democratic deficit here is a matter of regret and concern for all who truly value democracy as opposed to just paying lip service or equating it with nationalism.
    I didn't vote for Gordon Brown when he took over from Blair. But I accepted this awkward Scottish twat as our PM, as that is our democratic system, and I was able to swiftly vote him out of power at the next election, as you will be able to dismiss Liz Truss in 2024

    That's our democracy. You don't get to pick and choose the bits you like; if you want to change our system, persuade your leader Keir Starmer to change it when he reaches power, as I am fairly sure he will

    Because we are a democracy, even more so now we are out of the EU
  • Scott_xP said:

    NEW: Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng 'ignored warnings' from officials their mini-budget would spark market chaos - story by me, @BenGartside and @RichardVaughan1 https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/liz-truss-kwasi-kwarteng-warnings-mini-budget-market-chaos-1881554

    I should certainly damn well hope so.

    A change of direction will always cause instability, but that doesn't make it wrong. Of course Sir Humphrey will give warnings about that, if he didn't he wouldn't be doing his job. And if a politician went along with every warning they were ever given, they'd never be doing anything at all. Except they'd be warned against doing nothing too, so I suppose spontaneous combustion would be the only option left.
    A change in direction doesn't always cause instability. Have you been reading too much Turgenev or something?

    If disastrous sequlae isn't a cause to stop and re-think a course of action, what is?
    Stopping and rethinking is now considerably less likely, given that following public interventions from the insane looking Fed man and now the IMF, this has now gone beyond UK politics and become an issue of the right of the UK Government to take slightly less from people in tax than it did before.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    🚨NEW🚨
    If govt doesn't reverse its fiscal plans, it may have little option but to cut public spending so enormously it could result in the end of the NHS, acc to Charlie Bean, one of UK's leading economists, of the ⁦@OBR_UK⁩ & ⁦@bankofengland⁩ https://news.sky.com/story/spending-cuts-made-necessary-by-mini-budget-could-finish-nhs-former-bank-of-england-deputy-governor-sir-charlie-bean-says-12706584
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,662

    Ratters said:

    Report from the gilt market...

    The fall in prices has created a lot of forced sellers, as pension funds bought government bonds using leverage. That needs to be collateralised daily and the speed and size of the moves (completely unprecedented) means many are struggling to sell other assets in time. That forced selling pushes prices down further and exacerbates the problem.

    This is spiraling out of control and will only get worse without intervention. Absent that, this could end up massively increasingly the deficit of UK DB Pension Funds and removing what buyers the government already had for its debt.

    In short, the government is fucked.

    Or in short, its not a rational judgement on the policy based upon sound analysis, debate and reasoning.

    Its a self-fulfilling stampede led by hysteria, just like when the petrol forecourts ran out of petrol nationwide because a small handful of stations had run short during the switchover from E5 to E10 Unleaded and some dodgy misreporting of the situation.
    It is well known that markets can stay irrational* longer than you can remain solvent.

    *not convinced they are being irrational.
  • RattersRatters Posts: 1,076
    edited September 2022

    Ratters said:

    Report from the gilt market...

    The fall in prices has created a lot of forced sellers, as pension funds bought government bonds using leverage. That needs to be collateralised daily and the speed and size of the moves (completely unprecedented) means many are struggling to sell other assets in time. That forced selling pushes prices down further and exacerbates the problem.

    This is spiraling out of control and will only get worse without intervention. Absent that, this could end up massively increasingly the deficit of UK DB Pension Funds and removing what buyers the government already had for its debt.

    In short, the government is fucked.

    Or in short, its not a rational judgement on the policy based upon sound analysis, debate and reasoning.

    Its a self-fulfilling stampede led by hysteria, just like when the petrol forecourts ran out of petrol nationwide because a small handful of stations had run short during the switchover from E5 to E10 Unleaded and some dodgy misreporting of the situation.
    I agree the size of the movements are no longer rational, but as a result of a liquidity crisis in part of the market.

    But the consequences are very real and the only two bodies that could do anything to stop it, the government and the BoE, are completely absent.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,159

    kinabalu said:

    Paul Hollywood and George Clooney. Could be twins.

    No
    Well George has the edge on looks, I suppose, despite being a bit older.

    Can he mould dough as deftly as Paul though? Bet he can't.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,662
    Scott_xP said:

    🚨NEW🚨
    If govt doesn't reverse its fiscal plans, it may have little option but to cut public spending so enormously it could result in the end of the NHS, acc to Charlie Bean, one of UK's leading economists, of the ⁦@OBR_UK⁩ & ⁦@bankofengland⁩ https://news.sky.com/story/spending-cuts-made-necessary-by-mini-budget-could-finish-nhs-former-bank-of-england-deputy-governor-sir-charlie-bean-says-12706584

    Today we had patients approaching 48 hours in the Emergency Dept. Covid numbers up again too, the schools effect I suppose.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,748
    This IMF statement is extraordinary. The cut to the 45% tax rate is fiscally irrelevant. So why are they making a public pronouncement to the effect it must be reversed and that they are “monitoring the UK”?

    I suspect there’s far more going on right now than meets the eye. There’s no rational reason for UK gilts to be attacked in this way.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,158
    edited September 2022

    Scott_xP said:

    Here’s the full, critical IMF statement released tonight about the UK. “We do not recommend” big fiscal moves. Nov23 Budget a chance to “reevaluate” (ie change) the big tax cuts just announced. Yikes. https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1574852489433825280/photo/1

    Fuck them and their pathetic opining on whether the UK's tax changes will result in 'inequality' - Mind your own fucking business.
    Is that you Liz?
    Plainly it's too much to hope for that a remainer has a shred of appreciation for how utterly out of order it is for a series of figures from international bodies to seek to intervene in the domestic policies of the elected UK Government. If someone from the IMF kicked you in the face you'd send them a letter of thanks.
    Will you be saying that when the UK goes cap in hand for an IMF loan?
    It must be terrible to be so full of craven self-loathing.
    It’s not the package of tax cuts and push for growth in particular Lucky - it’s the amount of borrowing to freeze the energy market that has no costings done for it but involves vast swathes of all that borrowed money handed out to so many who don’t need hand out.

    I’m putting you in charge at the IMF Lucky with task to comment on what UK is borrowing for the freeze, and how they will be using the incredible amount of borrowed money - let’s be honest you would come out with exactly the same comment? Why? Becuase you don’t have to be paid by the IMF to say it, you can see for yourself right now that it’s quite simply the wrong bonkers route to have gone down.

    UK politics and the world outside is now waking up to the stupid thing the UK has done here with such massive borrowing for unnecessary hand outs to so many who don’t need it. The up to 45B of welcome with a few controversial tax cuts is mere fluff round the edges easily brushed off - the UKs mistake to borrow so much to freeze its energy market is so big it can tip the whole world into recession.
    Yes. The subtext of the IMF statement is 'we dont want you doing the energy bailout' hence the 'targetted' comments. Reversing 2 billion for the 45p rate will make zero difference to the macro picture.
    This needs to be made clear. These interventions, the markets etc are NOT about the 45p tax rate
    Exactly.

    The bit, rather big bit, the markets and the IMF, other leading economists around the world are heated about, was actually somehow hidden last Friday domestically in our country by the row over Gordon Brown’s outgoing trick present for George Osborne from 2010 being, courageously as they say in Yes Minister, binned.

    UK politics has sleep walked into this stupid unnecessary and expensive freeze policy - the Boris administration and Treasury seem to have done nothing to have helped the new government by warning them about it and giving them alternatives, Lib Dems and Labour initially proposed it, and have made a huge mistake by failing to publicly announce they changed their minds, because they own it too now. Labour and Lib Dems own this run on the pound as much as the Tories because it’s their stupid freeze policy that is causing it.

    LuckyGuy is ruffled by foreign economists calling it mad and regressive, then listen to all our home grown economists in our own think tanks, most of whom have called it mad and regressive at every stage themselves.
    Don't forget too, though, that many of our neighbours have similar bailouts planned. It was very significant, as I posted last week, that the IFS said it was the combination of "essential one-off costs, like the bailout", with the "permanent costs" of tax rises, which was what made the UK economic outlook "unsustainable".

    That report, from the single most highly respected UK economic thinktank essentially acting in place of the censored, government OBR, will have been read in all sorts of places.
  • Dear @ZelenskyyUa, you know that you can count on our loyal support for the cause of freedom of Ukrainian people. Stay strong and keep your faith steadfast! 🇮🇹🇺🇦

    https://twitter.com/giorgiameloni/status/1574862655067660295
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,930
    Scott_xP said:

    🚨NEW🚨
    If govt doesn't reverse its fiscal plans, it may have little option but to cut public spending so enormously it could result in the end of the NHS, acc to Charlie Bean, one of UK's leading economists, of the ⁦@OBR_UK⁩ & ⁦@bankofengland⁩ https://news.sky.com/story/spending-cuts-made-necessary-by-mini-budget-could-finish-nhs-former-bank-of-england-deputy-governor-sir-charlie-bean-says-12706584

    Did he suggest how many hours it had left?
  • WillGWillG Posts: 2,366

    Scott_xP said:

    NEW: Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng 'ignored warnings' from officials their mini-budget would spark market chaos - story by me, @BenGartside and @RichardVaughan1 https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/liz-truss-kwasi-kwarteng-warnings-mini-budget-market-chaos-1881554

    I should certainly damn well hope so.

    A change of direction will always cause instability, but that doesn't make it wrong. Of course Sir Humphrey will give warnings about that, if he didn't he wouldn't be doing his job. And if a politician went along with every warning they were ever given, they'd never be doing anything at all. Except they'd be warned against doing nothing too, so I suppose spontaneous combustion would be the only option left.
    A change in direction doesn't always cause instability. Have you been reading too much Turgenev or something?

    If disastrous sequlae isn't a cause to stop and re-think a course of action, what is?
    Stopping and rethinking is now considerably less likely, given that following public interventions from the insane looking Fed man and now the IMF, this has now gone beyond UK politics and become an issue of the right of the UK Government to take slightly less from people in tax than it did before.
    The problem isn't taking slightly less. The problem is no commensurate reduction in spending. It's like deciding to go part time when you have a massive credit card bill to pay off. In fact, the energy subsidies are equivalent to adding a big holiday to the mix too.

    When you are arguing against the general public, the economics academia, international institutions and the financial markets, it might be worth stopping and pausing whether you have your thinking wrong.
  • Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:

    🚨NEW🚨
    If govt doesn't reverse its fiscal plans, it may have little option but to cut public spending so enormously it could result in the end of the NHS, acc to Charlie Bean, one of UK's leading economists, of the ⁦@OBR_UK⁩ & ⁦@bankofengland⁩ https://news.sky.com/story/spending-cuts-made-necessary-by-mini-budget-could-finish-nhs-former-bank-of-england-deputy-governor-sir-charlie-bean-says-12706584

    Today we had patients approaching 48 hours in the Emergency Dept. Covid numbers up again too, the schools effect I suppose.
    Yes, but your work is a bit self-fulfilling though, the better you are at your job, the more you'll create more demand on yourself. If you drop the ball, you lighten your caseload.

    If you keep saving their lives, they'll keep getting sick. They only stop going to get healthcare when you fail to save their lives.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,339
    edited September 2022
    The idea that the UK government should not change policy direction from that promised, by manifesto, in 2019 - when there has literally been a once-in-a-century global plague and an almost-unprecedented European war in the interim - is beyond preposterous

    Of course they will adapt to the circumstances. That is the nature of executive government. We get to change this government at elections once every five years max

    Also: we can naturally change our system if we wish. We could have government guided by referenda, a la Suisse, if we desire. Heck we could have government by daily opinion poll. And maybe we should? Fact is: it's all up to us, and our governments will make real decisions with real impact

    We are now truly free to govern ourselves as we determine, as a nation, thanks to Brexit
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,662

    Scott_xP said:

    NEW: Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng 'ignored warnings' from officials their mini-budget would spark market chaos - story by me, @BenGartside and @RichardVaughan1 https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/liz-truss-kwasi-kwarteng-warnings-mini-budget-market-chaos-1881554

    I should certainly damn well hope so.

    A change of direction will always cause instability, but that doesn't make it wrong. Of course Sir Humphrey will give warnings about that, if he didn't he wouldn't be doing his job. And if a politician went along with every warning they were ever given, they'd never be doing anything at all. Except they'd be warned against doing nothing too, so I suppose spontaneous combustion would be the only option left.
    A change in direction doesn't always cause instability. Have you been reading too much Turgenev or something?

    If disastrous sequlae isn't a cause to stop and re-think a course of action, what is?
    Stopping and rethinking is now considerably less likely, given that following public interventions from the insane looking Fed man and now the IMF, this has now gone beyond UK politics and become an issue of the right of the UK Government to take slightly less from people in tax than it did before.
    Global Britain needs to heed world markets.

    The alternative is a North Korea like Brexit like the Lexiteers wanted.
  • moonshine said:

    This IMF statement is extraordinary. The cut to the 45% tax rate is fiscally irrelevant. So why are they making a public pronouncement to the effect it must be reversed and that they are “monitoring the UK”?

    I suspect there’s far more going on right now than meets the eye. There’s no rational reason for UK gilts to be attacked in this way.

    The UK is going against a lot of people by going for growth. I am not going to labour the World Economic Forum stuff, but that organisation has been pushing a big contraction, that we all have to go through 'together'. Nobody is supposed to depart from the hymn sheet, Liz has balls of steel to do it, and she should be getting supported to the hilt by every British person who gives a shit about politics, democracy and their own financial well-being.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103

    Dear @ZelenskyyUa, you know that you can count on our loyal support for the cause of freedom of Ukrainian people. Stay strong and keep your faith steadfast! 🇮🇹🇺🇦

    https://twitter.com/giorgiameloni/status/1574862655067660295

    So in at least one way it is better her party leads that coalition than Salvini and Berlusconi I guess?
  • We’re still living with the consequences of decisions make during the financial crisis by the ‘unelected’ Gordon Brown government.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    The Brexity types all seem to be on the wreck the hoose juice tonight.

    Overturning the applecart was rather the point a bit though, wasn't it? A bit like you and your Saltire types.
    How does overturning applecarts, literally or metaphorically, ever actually improve things? For anyone?

    I do find your position increasingly inexplicable. You say Yay, minimise the state and make everyone work harder, but it is entirely impossible that you are doing a job of any kind and posting here as much as you do. You claim to have small children. Do you live on disability allowance or inherited money or what?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103
    Scott_xP said:

    🚨NEW🚨
    If govt doesn't reverse its fiscal plans, it may have little option but to cut public spending so enormously it could result in the end of the NHS, acc to Charlie Bean, one of UK's leading economists, of the ⁦@OBR_UK⁩ & ⁦@bankofengland⁩ https://news.sky.com/story/spending-cuts-made-necessary-by-mini-budget-could-finish-nhs-former-bank-of-england-deputy-governor-sir-charlie-bean-says-12706584

    When is the fabled new growth supposed to arrive in any case? Some while I should think, not sure how long we were supposed to wait.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,507

    Scott_xP said:

    Here’s the full, critical IMF statement released tonight about the UK. “We do not recommend” big fiscal moves. Nov23 Budget a chance to “reevaluate” (ie change) the big tax cuts just announced. Yikes. https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1574852489433825280/photo/1

    Fuck them and their pathetic opining on whether the UK's tax changes will result in 'inequality' - Mind your own fucking business.
    Is that you Liz?
    Plainly it's too much to hope for that a remainer has a shred of appreciation for how utterly out of order it is for a series of figures from international bodies to seek to intervene in the domestic policies of the elected UK Government. If someone from the IMF kicked you in the face you'd send them a letter of thanks.
    Will you be saying that when the UK goes cap in hand for an IMF loan?
    It must be terrible to be so full of craven self-loathing.
    It’s not the package of tax cuts and push for growth in particular Lucky - it’s the amount of borrowing to freeze the energy market that has no costings done for it but involves vast swathes of all that borrowed money handed out to so many who don’t need hand out.

    I’m putting you in charge at the IMF Lucky with task to comment on what UK is borrowing for the freeze, and how they will be using the incredible amount of borrowed money - let’s be honest you would come out with exactly the same comment? Why? Becuase you don’t have to be paid by the IMF to say it, you can see for yourself right now that it’s quite simply the wrong bonkers route to have gone down.

    UK politics and the world outside is now waking up to the stupid thing the UK has done here with such massive borrowing for unnecessary hand outs to so many who don’t need it. The up to 45B of welcome with a few controversial tax cuts is mere fluff round the edges easily brushed off - the UKs mistake to borrow so much to freeze its energy market is so big it can tip the whole world into recession.
    Yes. The subtext of the IMF statement is 'we dont want you doing the energy bailout' hence the 'targetted' comments. Reversing 2 billion for the 45p rate will make zero difference to the macro picture.
    This needs to be made clear. These interventions, the markets etc are NOT about the 45p tax rate
    One thing the Labour Party have done well in, is making all this about the 45p rate. Even though its utterly untrue.

    But politically, who can blame them? The Chancellor did rather make a rod for his own back with it.
    It’s nice to be able to agree with one of your posts again.

    There’s a lot to unpack going on at once. Some people are getting very confused and think a UK budget is getting pushed around by foreigners here. There was a lot crammed into Friday. I don’t buy the idea it got delayed because of Queens death - they didn’t seem ready for a detailed announcement the day the queen died, as if no real graft had been done on a plan through the summer. The decision to exclude the OBR was a political one, and was a mistake in same way Osborne created it to offer market soothing/ opposition flattening citations to all his pronouncements was a strong idea. The decision to kill off Browns old tax trap last Friday was a mistake. I’m not meaning the ideology of doing just the timing, it could have waited.

    Do you support me the expensive freeze is the wrong approach? I’m absolutely sure it is.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,876

    <
    Exactly.

    The bit, rather big bit, the markets and the IMF, other leading economists around the world are heated about, was actually somehow hidden last Friday domestically in our country by the row over Gordon Brown’s outgoing trick present for George Osborne from 2010 being, courageously as they say in Yes Minister, binned.

    UK politics has sleep walked into this stupid unnecessary and expensive freeze policy - the Boris administration and Treasury seem to have done nothing to have helped the new government by warning them about it and giving them alternatives, Lib Dems and Labour initially proposed it, and have made a huge mistake by failing to publicly announce they changed their minds, because they own it too now. Labour and Lib Dems own this run on the pound as much as the Tories because it’s their stupid freeze policy that is causing it.

    LuckyGuy is ruffled by foreign economists calling it mad and regressive, then listen to all our home grown economists in our own think tanks, most of whom have called it mad and regressive at every stage themselves.

    The better parallel is with Northern Rock - everyone saw what a run on a bank or building society in the 21st century looked like. It looked like panic, it looked like approaching civil disorder. The first duty of any Government is the preservation of law and order so, as with Northern Rock, the new Truss Government decided it had to do something to prevent the full force of proposed price increases being passed on to businesses and consumers.

    For ideological and probably practical reasons, a windfall tax wasn't going to cut it - the Government needed to step in directly and absorb the fuel spike much as it absorbed the threat of bank collapses via the personal deposit guarantee in 2007 (or 2008).

    Once people realised their money was safe, they calmed down. Once people realised the Government would meet most of the costs of rising energy prices, they calmed down.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103
    Foxy said:

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    Congratulations to @GiorgiaMeloni on her party's success in the Italian elections.

    From supporting Ukraine to addressing global economic challenges, the UK and Italy are close allies. 🇬🇧🇮🇹

    https://twitter.com/trussliz/status/1574476937015304192?s=46&t=UjLejN7sri8-lM915-SOwQ

    Tone deaf.

    Some cracking comments.

    Perhaps, but I think in good grace you should give Meloni half a chance.
    No doubt people said the same about Hitler.
    FFS. Meloni is not Hitler

    No more than ex-communist Nick Palmer is Pol Pot, nor many other senior Labour figures who dallied with Far Left politics when younger
    Absolutely right. People are being silly about the labelling here. In the bigger picture Our current UK government is to the right of Meloni’s, because UK electorate more right wing than italys.
    Indeed

    Tho I’m not sure the UK is further right than Italy

    You can hear Hard Right views expressed openly in Italy that you simply don’t in the UK

    FWIW I think all the western world is moving sharply to the right on matters of things like migration, even as they often become “left” in social attitudes, or perhaps more secular

    A complex picture
    Unfortunately many of the people we let in as refugees are criminals. Some beyond that are near so.

    The weird people that haunt traffic queues should all be sent in their way.
    Xenophobic nonsense. See https://www.globalcitizen.org/fr/content/these-are-the-facts-on-refugees-and-crime/ or https://erf.org.eg/app/uploads/2021/04/1618392168_799_1353558_1470.pdf , for example.

    So there are no immigrant crime communities here in the UK?

    I am very far from a xenophobe.
    You began talking about refugees. You've now switched to immigrants. The fact that you see them as the same thing speaks to your mindset.

    There is crime in all communities. The evidence presented demonstrates that there isn't more crime among refugees.
    It is all part of our deficit problem. There was a time we used to export criminals all over the world.
    I like to think with enough effort we can once again. Come on people!
  • kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    Congratulations to @GiorgiaMeloni on her party's success in the Italian elections.

    From supporting Ukraine to addressing global economic challenges, the UK and Italy are close allies. 🇬🇧🇮🇹

    https://twitter.com/trussliz/status/1574476937015304192?s=46&t=UjLejN7sri8-lM915-SOwQ

    Tone deaf.

    Some cracking comments.

    Perhaps, but I think in good grace you should give Meloni half a chance.
    No doubt people said the same about Hitler.
    FFS. Meloni is not Hitler

    No more than ex-communist Nick Palmer is Pol Pot, nor many other senior Labour figures who dallied with Far Left politics when younger
    Absolutely right. People are being silly about the labelling here. In the bigger picture Our current UK government is to the right of Meloni’s, because UK electorate more right wing than italys.
    Indeed

    Tho I’m not sure the UK is further right than Italy

    You can hear Hard Right views expressed openly in Italy that you simply don’t in the UK

    FWIW I think all the western world is moving sharply to the right on matters of things like migration, even as they often become “left” in social attitudes, or perhaps more secular

    A complex picture
    Unfortunately many of the people we let in as refugees are criminals. Some beyond that are near so.

    The weird people that haunt traffic queues should all be sent in their way.
    Xenophobic nonsense. See https://www.globalcitizen.org/fr/content/these-are-the-facts-on-refugees-and-crime/ or https://erf.org.eg/app/uploads/2021/04/1618392168_799_1353558_1470.pdf , for example.

    So there are no immigrant crime communities here in the UK?

    I am very far from a xenophobe.
    You began talking about refugees. You've now switched to immigrants. The fact that you see them as the same thing speaks to your mindset.

    There is crime in all communities. The evidence presented demonstrates that there isn't more crime among refugees.
    It is all part of our deficit problem. There was a time we used to export criminals all over the world.
    I like to think with enough effort we can once again. Come on people!
    We could start with appointing Boris as US ambassador?
  • WillGWillG Posts: 2,366
    Leon said:

    The idea that the UK government should not change policy direction from that promised, by manifesto, in 2019 - when there has literally been a once-in-a-century global plague and an almost-unprecedented European war in the interim - is beyond preposterous

    Of course they will adapt to the circumstances. That is the nature of executive government. We get to change this government at elections once every five years max

    Also: we can naturally change our system if we wish. We could have government guided by referenda, a la Suisse, if we desire. Heck we could have government by daily opinion poll. And maybe we should? Fact it: it's all up to us, and our governments will make real decisions with real impact

    We are now free to govern ourselves as we wish, thanks to Brexit

    Yes, the UK government has every right to change policy as it wants to. And when that change is economically illiterate, the financial markets have every right to sell UK plc to reduce their risk. And the Great British public have every right to observe the clusterf*ck and decide to vote against the government.

    The Tories screwed up big time and will get hammered for it at the next election. Democracy working as it should.
  • Nigelb said:

    Very efficient.

    https://twitter.com/WarInUkraineYet/status/1574760866255409153
    Preliminary results for the annexation referendums in territory occupied by Russia, by Interfax:

    Kherson Oblast - 97.47%
    Zaporozhye Oblast - 98%
    Donetsk Oblast - 98.05%
    Luhansk Oblast - 97.79%

    Genuine courageous votes to stay in Ukraine? Or just made up numbers to look ‘realistic’?
    Should have used AV
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103
    RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    🚨NEW🚨
    If govt doesn't reverse its fiscal plans, it may have little option but to cut public spending so enormously it could result in the end of the NHS, acc to Charlie Bean, one of UK's leading economists, of the ⁦@OBR_UK⁩ & ⁦@bankofengland⁩ https://news.sky.com/story/spending-cuts-made-necessary-by-mini-budget-could-finish-nhs-former-bank-of-england-deputy-governor-sir-charlie-bean-says-12706584

    Did he suggest how many hours it had left?
    Honestly he should have not mentioned the NHS. I know it is totemic, but people are kind of used to hearing it is about to be destroyed by the Tories. I think it would have been more powerful to just leave it at there being enormous spending cuts coming in (which certain MPs would very much like anyway), in addition to the richest getting further goodies.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,931
    Leon said:

    The idea that the UK government should not change policy direction from that promised, by manifesto, in 2019 - when there has literally been a once-in-a-century global plague and an almost-unprecedented European war in the interim - is beyond preposterous

    Of course they will adapt to the circumstances. That is the nature of executive government. We get to change this government at elections once every five years max

    Also: we can naturally change our system if we wish. We could have government guided by referenda, a la Suisse, if we desire. Heck we could have government by daily opinion poll. And maybe we should? Fact is: it's all up to us, and our governments will make real decisions with real impact

    We are now truly free to govern ourselves as we determine, as a nation, thanks to Brexit

    Thanks to Brexit, we are free to be governed by dangerous incompetents.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103
    I have to confess seeing the headline 'This is a Labour moment, says Keir Starmer' did not really hit home for me. It just made me think 'Wouldn't he say that about any moment?'
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,090

    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    Congratulations to @GiorgiaMeloni on her party's success in the Italian elections.

    From supporting Ukraine to addressing global economic challenges, the UK and Italy are close allies. 🇬🇧🇮🇹

    https://twitter.com/trussliz/status/1574476937015304192?s=46&t=UjLejN7sri8-lM915-SOwQ

    Tone deaf.

    Some cracking comments.

    Perhaps, but I think in good grace you should give Meloni half a chance.
    No doubt people said the same about Hitler.
    FFS. Meloni is not Hitler

    No more than ex-communist Nick Palmer is Pol Pot, nor many other senior Labour figures who dallied with Far Left politics when younger
    Absolutely right. People are being silly about the labelling here. In the bigger picture Our current UK government is to the right of Meloni’s, because UK electorate more right wing than italys.
    Indeed

    Tho I’m not sure the UK is further right than Italy

    You can hear Hard Right views expressed openly in Italy that you simply don’t in the UK

    FWIW I think all the western world is moving sharply to the right on matters of things like migration, even as they often become “left” in social attitudes, or perhaps more secular

    A complex picture
    Unfortunately many of the people we let in as refugees are criminals. Some beyond that are near so.

    The weird people that haunt traffic queues should all be sent in their way.
    Xenophobic nonsense. See https://www.globalcitizen.org/fr/content/these-are-the-facts-on-refugees-and-crime/ or https://erf.org.eg/app/uploads/2021/04/1618392168_799_1353558_1470.pdf , for example.

    So there are no immigrant crime communities here in the UK?

    I am very far from a xenophobe.
    You began talking about refugees. You've now switched to immigrants. The fact that you see them as the same thing speaks to your mindset.

    There is crime in all communities. The evidence presented demonstrates that there isn't more crime among refugees.
    It is all part of our deficit problem. There was a time we used to export criminals all over the world.
    I like to think with enough effort we can once again. Come on people!
    We could start with appointing Boris as US ambassador?
    Boris was born in the US, so isn't he an example of Omnium's bogeyman criminal immigrant?
  • Scott_xP said:

    🚨NEW🚨
    If govt doesn't reverse its fiscal plans, it may have little option but to cut public spending so enormously it could result in the end of the NHS, acc to Charlie Bean, one of UK's leading economists, of the ⁦@OBR_UK⁩ & ⁦@bankofengland⁩ https://news.sky.com/story/spending-cuts-made-necessary-by-mini-budget-could-finish-nhs-former-bank-of-england-deputy-governor-sir-charlie-bean-says-12706584

    If they take a hatchet to the NHS, then the Tory party is finished.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,652

    We’re still living with the consequences of decisions make during the financial crisis by the ‘unelected’ Gordon Brown government.

    We are currently living through the consequences of the third-most popular candidate winning while unelected!
  • Leon said:

    The idea that the UK government should not change policy direction from that promised, by manifesto, in 2019 - when there has literally been a once-in-a-century global plague and an almost-unprecedented European war in the interim - is beyond preposterous

    Of course they will adapt to the circumstances. That is the nature of executive government. We get to change this government at elections once every five years max

    Also: we can naturally change our system if we wish. We could have government guided by referenda, a la Suisse, if we desire. Heck we could have government by daily opinion poll. And maybe we should? Fact is: it's all up to us, and our governments will make real decisions with real impact

    We are now truly free to govern ourselves as we determine, as a nation, thanks to Brexit

    Thanks to Brexit, we are free to be governed by dangerous incompetents.
    Thanks to Brexit, we can choose to sack our dangerous incompetents. The ones we were ruled by before, we couldn't.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,270
    Andy_JS said:

    Surely we just need to attack the woke signs in Waterloo Station again, that's how to win elections

    I don't want any signs at train stations lecturing me on what to think or do from government agencies.
    If you find signs lecturing at you in train stations, my advice is offer constructive criticism of their arguments. Perhaps using Benthamite utilitarianism?

    If nothing else it will give passing foreigners the impression that the barking mad are polite and very well educated in this country.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103
    edited September 2022

    moonshine said:

    This IMF statement is extraordinary. The cut to the 45% tax rate is fiscally irrelevant. So why are they making a public pronouncement to the effect it must be reversed and that they are “monitoring the UK”?

    I suspect there’s far more going on right now than meets the eye. There’s no rational reason for UK gilts to be attacked in this way.

    The UK is going against a lot of people by going for growth. I am not going to labour the World Economic Forum stuff, but that organisation has been pushing a big contraction, that we all have to go through 'together'. Nobody is supposed to depart from the hymn sheet, Liz has balls of steel to do it, and she should be getting supported to the hilt by every British person who gives a shit about politics, democracy and their own financial well-being.
    How long before we see the benefits though? How much can people take?

    There's many things theoretically a good idea but the cost to achieve it is not bearable. And she only seems to care about those who can bear it.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,507
    edited September 2022
    stodge said:

    <
    Exactly.

    The bit, rather big bit, the markets and the IMF, other leading economists around the world are heated about, was actually somehow hidden last Friday domestically in our country by the row over Gordon Brown’s outgoing trick present for George Osborne from 2010 being, courageously as they say in Yes Minister, binned.

    UK politics has sleep walked into this stupid unnecessary and expensive freeze policy - the Boris administration and Treasury seem to have done nothing to have helped the new government by warning them about it and giving them alternatives, Lib Dems and Labour initially proposed it, and have made a huge mistake by failing to publicly announce they changed their minds, because they own it too now. Labour and Lib Dems own this run on the pound as much as the Tories because it’s their stupid freeze policy that is causing it.

    LuckyGuy is ruffled by foreign economists calling it mad and regressive, then listen to all our home grown economists in our own think tanks, most of whom have called it mad and regressive at every stage themselves.

    The better parallel is with Northern Rock - everyone saw what a run on a bank or building society in the 21st century looked like. It looked like panic, it looked like approaching civil disorder. The first duty of any Government is the preservation of law and order so, as with Northern Rock, the new Truss Government decided it had to do something to prevent the full force of proposed price increases being passed on to businesses and consumers.

    For ideological and probably practical reasons, a windfall tax wasn't going to cut it - the Government needed to step in directly and absorb the fuel spike much as it absorbed the threat of bank collapses via the personal deposit guarantee in 2007 (or 2008).

    Once people realised their money was safe, they calmed down. Once people realised the Government would meet most of the costs of rising energy prices, they calmed down.
    Don’t agree with you.

    You know the freeze for households cannot be used for business as there is no cap? So it’s two different solutions.

    You know the households option chosen doesn’t target the needy enough, and is not the only option available - something along these lines should have happened instead.

    https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/A-Variable-Energy-Price-Cap.pdf

    And if you don’t realise it tonight £220B is being borrowed much of which goes in a needless handout to those who don’t need it that is so stupid because we didn’t have to do it - then, much to your embarrassment for supporting this, you soon will, after which I predict you, like Lib Dems Labour and Tory’s already doing, keeping your head down every time it is mentioned.

    Prediction. It won’t be mentioned at all at Tory conference next week let alone boasted about.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,073
    .

    Scott_xP said:

    Here’s the full, critical IMF statement released tonight about the UK. “We do not recommend” big fiscal moves. Nov23 Budget a chance to “reevaluate” (ie change) the big tax cuts just announced. Yikes.
    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1
    574852489433825280/photo/1




    Fuck them and their pathetic opining on whether the UK's tax changes will result in 'inequality' - Mind your own fucking business.
    You ok, hun?
    I am perfectly fine - I'm having a normal reaction to foreign citizens who nobody here (or anywhere) elected trying to strike down the budget of the elected Government in my country. As it happens I think the budget is fairly flat-footed and uninspiring - it wouldn't have been my choice. But I'm damned if I am not supporting it against this background. These people are bad and dangerous for democracy, and need to be faced down.
    If the UK financed its borrowing requirements entirely domestically, that might be reasonable.
    It doesn’t.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103

    Scott_xP said:

    🚨NEW🚨
    If govt doesn't reverse its fiscal plans, it may have little option but to cut public spending so enormously it could result in the end of the NHS, acc to Charlie Bean, one of UK's leading economists, of the ⁦@OBR_UK⁩ & ⁦@bankofengland⁩ https://news.sky.com/story/spending-cuts-made-necessary-by-mini-budget-could-finish-nhs-former-bank-of-england-deputy-governor-sir-charlie-bean-says-12706584

    If they take a hatchet to the NHS, then the Tory party is finished.
    Look, it is very important for us all to grow. And by grow, I mean cut the legs off every public service.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,339
    edited September 2022
    WillG said:

    Leon said:

    The idea that the UK government should not change policy direction from that promised, by manifesto, in 2019 - when there has literally been a once-in-a-century global plague and an almost-unprecedented European war in the interim - is beyond preposterous

    Of course they will adapt to the circumstances. That is the nature of executive government. We get to change this government at elections once every five years max

    Also: we can naturally change our system if we wish. We could have government guided by referenda, a la Suisse, if we desire. Heck we could have government by daily opinion poll. And maybe we should? Fact it: it's all up to us, and our governments will make real decisions with real impact

    We are now free to govern ourselves as we wish, thanks to Brexit

    Yes, the UK government has every right to change policy as it wants to. And when that change is economically illiterate, the financial markets have every right to sell UK plc to reduce their risk. And the Great British public have every right to observe the clusterf*ck and decide to vote against the government.

    The Tories screwed up big time and will get hammered for it at the next election. Democracy working as it should.
    I completely agree. That is a functioning democracy

    I am on the right. I generally want the Tories to win (usually, but not always - I saw the need for Blair in 97)

    But the Tories have fucked things up royally, on several occasions, in the last 12 years. And I therefore imagine the British people will kick these decadent Tory fuckers into the gutter in 2024, feeling like it is time for a change. And even though I will regret the missed opportunities of 2010-2024 I will cheer British democracy for doing what it does: expressing the will of the people

    There will be no Trumpite coup attempt, when Liz Truss loses

    THIS is why I voted Leave in 2016. To restore power to the British voters. If these British voters exercise their votes in ways I dislike, so be it. I am content: that's the way it works
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990

    Thanks to Brexit, we can choose to sack our dangerous incompetents.

    How do we sack Kwasi before he crashes any more?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,160
    Leon said:

    WillG said:

    Leon said:

    The idea that the UK government should not change policy direction from that promised, by manifesto, in 2019 - when there has literally been a once-in-a-century global plague and an almost-unprecedented European war in the interim - is beyond preposterous

    Of course they will adapt to the circumstances. That is the nature of executive government. We get to change this government at elections once every five years max

    Also: we can naturally change our system if we wish. We could have government guided by referenda, a la Suisse, if we desire. Heck we could have government by daily opinion poll. And maybe we should? Fact it: it's all up to us, and our governments will make real decisions with real impact

    We are now free to govern ourselves as we wish, thanks to Brexit

    Yes, the UK government has every right to change policy as it wants to. And when that change is economically illiterate, the financial markets have every right to sell UK plc to reduce their risk. And the Great British public have every right to observe the clusterf*ck and decide to vote against the government.

    The Tories screwed up big time and will get hammered for it at the next election. Democracy working as it should.
    I completely agree. That is a functioning democracy

    I am on the right. I generally want the Tories to win (usually, but not always - I saw the need for Blair in 97)

    But the Tories have fucked things up royally, on several occasions, in the last 12 years. And I therefore imagine the British people will kick these decadent Tory fuckers into the gutter in 2024, feeling like it is time for a change. And even though I will regret the missed opportunities of 2010-2024 I will cheer British democracy for doing what it does: expressing the will of the people

    There will be no Trumpite coup attempt, when Liz Truss loses

    THIS is why I voted Leave in 2014. To restore power to the British voters. If these British voters exercise their votes in ways I dislike, so be it. I am content, that's the way it works
    You voted Leave in 2014?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,159
    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Here’s the full, critical IMF statement released tonight about the UK. “We do not recommend” big fiscal moves. Nov23 Budget a chance to “reevaluate” (ie change) the big tax cuts just announced. Yikes. https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1574852489433825280/photo/1

    Fuck them and their pathetic opining on whether the UK's tax changes will result in 'inequality' - Mind your own fucking business.
    Absolutely

    There seems to be a new upper middle class of western people who believe they have a right to opine, indeed overtly intervene, in the doings of freely elected democratic governments, when these people themselves - this self appointed clerisy - have absolutely no democratic remit at all

    Cf Ursula von der Leyen and the Italian elections

    Fuck them all. And all the UK charities likewise. Butt the fuck out, you stupid Guardianista twats

    The irony is, of course, that they generally drive events in the opposite way to which they intend. As with Brexit
    Nobody voted for this Kwazi Truss project. The democratic deficit here is a matter of regret and concern for all who truly value democracy as opposed to just paying lip service or equating it with nationalism.
    I didn't vote for Gordon Brown when he took over from Blair. But I accepted this awkward Scottish twat as our PM, as that is our democratic system, and I was able to swiftly vote him out of power at the next election, as you will be able to dismiss Liz Truss in 2024.

    That's our democracy. You don't get to pick and choose the bits you like; if you want to change our system, persuade your leader Keir Starmer to change it when he reaches power, as I am fairly sure he will.

    Because we are a democracy, even more so now we are out of the EU.
    But imagine Brown had been Corbyn and used the cover of the GFC to implement a hard left reshaping of the country that very few people wanted. You'd be spitting bricks and those bricks would deserve to be spat.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,664

    We’re still living with the consequences of decisions make during the financial crisis by the ‘unelected’ Gordon Brown government.

    Lol! I do hope the Tories make that front and centre of their GE campaign: "It's all Gordon Brown's fault!"

    I am sure that will boost their chances* no end.

    (*of electoral oblivion)
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,270

    Scott_xP said:

    Here’s the full, critical IMF statement released tonight about the UK. “We do not recommend” big fiscal moves. Nov23 Budget a chance to “reevaluate” (ie change) the big tax cuts just announced. Yikes. https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1574852489433825280/photo/1

    Fuck them and their pathetic opining on whether the UK's tax changes will result in 'inequality' - Mind your own fucking business.
    Is that you Liz?
    Plainly it's too much to hope for that a remainer has a shred of appreciation for how utterly out of order it is for a series of figures from international bodies to seek to intervene in the domestic policies of the elected UK Government. If someone from the IMF kicked you in the face you'd send them a letter of thanks.
    Will you be saying that when the UK goes cap in hand for an IMF loan?
    It must be terrible to be so full of craven self-loathing.
    It’s not the package of tax cuts and push for growth in particular Lucky - it’s the amount of borrowing to freeze the energy market that has no costings done for it but involves vast swathes of all that borrowed money handed out to so many who don’t need hand out.

    I’m putting you in charge at the IMF Lucky with task to comment on what UK is borrowing for the freeze, and how they will be using the incredible amount of borrowed money - let’s be honest you would come out with exactly the same comment? Why? Becuase you don’t have to be paid by the IMF to say it, you can see for yourself right now that it’s quite simply the wrong bonkers route to have gone down.

    UK politics and the world outside is now waking up to the stupid thing the UK has done here with such massive borrowing for unnecessary hand outs to so many who don’t need it. The up to 45B of welcome with a few controversial tax cuts is mere fluff round the edges easily brushed off - the UKs mistake to borrow so much to freeze its energy market is so big it can tip the whole world into recession.
    Yes. The subtext of the IMF statement is 'we dont want you doing the energy bailout' hence the 'targetted' comments. Reversing 2 billion for the 45p rate will make zero difference to the macro picture.
    This needs to be made clear. These interventions, the markets etc are NOT about the 45p tax rate
    Yup - the tax cut nonsense is the cherry on the cake. The big chunk of borrowing is in the energy price support.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,568
    Cyclefree said:

    kinabalu said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    kle4 said:

    Certainly getting testy around here.

    Yes it is rather.

    You should all be chilled like me, sitting next to a fire, feet up, while Husband and Daughter cook dinner.
    That definitely sounds like a plan, but I am on the wagon for a while. At a friend's a few days ago and I had too much wine, so I am off it for the rest of the month.

    I have a meal out on Thursday, so I might give in to temptation :smile:
    I did not mention wine .....
    It was the "chilled". That read subliminally as wine.
    I drink barely at all. I am invariably the designated driver.

    I chill by retreating into quiet and my imagination, either outside when gardening or inside when dark. Alcohol rarely adds anything to that.
    I use nature as my retreat.

    Being the designated driver can be a bloody pain, especially with Really Pissed People.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,339
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    WillG said:

    Leon said:

    The idea that the UK government should not change policy direction from that promised, by manifesto, in 2019 - when there has literally been a once-in-a-century global plague and an almost-unprecedented European war in the interim - is beyond preposterous

    Of course they will adapt to the circumstances. That is the nature of executive government. We get to change this government at elections once every five years max

    Also: we can naturally change our system if we wish. We could have government guided by referenda, a la Suisse, if we desire. Heck we could have government by daily opinion poll. And maybe we should? Fact it: it's all up to us, and our governments will make real decisions with real impact

    We are now free to govern ourselves as we wish, thanks to Brexit

    Yes, the UK government has every right to change policy as it wants to. And when that change is economically illiterate, the financial markets have every right to sell UK plc to reduce their risk. And the Great British public have every right to observe the clusterf*ck and decide to vote against the government.

    The Tories screwed up big time and will get hammered for it at the next election. Democracy working as it should.
    I completely agree. That is a functioning democracy

    I am on the right. I generally want the Tories to win (usually, but not always - I saw the need for Blair in 97)

    But the Tories have fucked things up royally, on several occasions, in the last 12 years. And I therefore imagine the British people will kick these decadent Tory fuckers into the gutter in 2024, feeling like it is time for a change. And even though I will regret the missed opportunities of 2010-2024 I will cheer British democracy for doing what it does: expressing the will of the people

    There will be no Trumpite coup attempt, when Liz Truss loses

    THIS is why I voted Leave in 2014. To restore power to the British voters. If these British voters exercise their votes in ways I dislike, so be it. I am content, that's the way it works
    You voted Leave in 2014?
    lol. A McFreudian slip, as they say in The Gorbals
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,158
    edited September 2022
    moonshine said:

    This IMF statement is extraordinary. The cut to the 45% tax rate is fiscally irrelevant. So why are they making a public pronouncement to the effect it must be reversed and that they are “monitoring the UK”?

    I suspect there’s far more going on right now than meets the eye. There’s no rational reason for UK gilts to be attacked in this way.

    Could you expand on whatever you are impying here, moonshine ? I'm genuinely Interested to hear what you mean.
  • Leon said:

    The idea that the UK government should not change policy direction from that promised, by manifesto, in 2019 - when there has literally been a once-in-a-century global plague and an almost-unprecedented European war in the interim - is beyond preposterous

    Of course they will adapt to the circumstances. That is the nature of executive government. We get to change this government at elections once every five years max

    Also: we can naturally change our system if we wish. We could have government guided by referenda, a la Suisse, if we desire. Heck we could have government by daily opinion poll. And maybe we should? Fact is: it's all up to us, and our governments will make real decisions with real impact

    We are now truly free to govern ourselves as we determine, as a nation, thanks to Brexit

    Thanks to Brexit, we are free to be governed by dangerous incompetents.
    For whom we did not vote.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,507
    kle4 said:

    I have to confess seeing the headline 'This is a Labour moment, says Keir Starmer' did not really hit home for me. It just made me think 'Wouldn't he say that about any moment?'

    This is a dry blackthorn day.

    This is fruity red moment.

    This is a moment to get some nuts.

    I know what you mean.
  • kle4 said:

    moonshine said:

    This IMF statement is extraordinary. The cut to the 45% tax rate is fiscally irrelevant. So why are they making a public pronouncement to the effect it must be reversed and that they are “monitoring the UK”?

    I suspect there’s far more going on right now than meets the eye. There’s no rational reason for UK gilts to be attacked in this way.

    The UK is going against a lot of people by going for growth. I am not going to labour the World Economic Forum stuff, but that organisation has been pushing a big contraction, that we all have to go through 'together'. Nobody is supposed to depart from the hymn sheet, Liz has balls of steel to do it, and she should be getting supported to the hilt by every British person who gives a shit about politics, democracy and their own financial well-being.
    How long before we see the benefits though? How much can people take?

    There's many things theoretically a good idea but the cost to achieve it is not bearable. And she only seems to care about those who can bear it.
    Well, Liz has two years, to turn the situation around and win an election.

    If we think Starmer's going to say 'No' to anyone at Davos when they tell him that recession is the new black, well, I don't even have a snappy aphorism for that, because literally nobody believes it, not even his most passionate supporters. The man would kick his granny off a cliff to hobnob with Justin Trudeau and Barack Obama.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,090
    Time for some revolutionary music (Bart wants apple carts upset and the rest of us want a revolution to depose Truss/Kwarteng): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hevi3u0K8KM
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,863
    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    We now have nearly two months of confusion, obfuscation and pontification before we see what Kwarteng intends for public expenditure, In all the exhortations about growth, he has hardly mentioned public spending - the ending of the NI tax rise leaves a £12 billion gap in the financing of adult social care according to CIPFA - and if you want to lose the affluent, it's telling grandma and grandad their grandchild's nursery or playgroup has to close because the local council doesn't have the money to run it..

    This is back to that word again - "fairness". I don't know if it's a result of the Covid experience but we seem collectively to have moved on from the individualistic ethos of the 80s to a more collective sense of who we are and what we are. That manifests not only in terms of concerns over the environment but a range of other issues where we now "care" about the wider picture in a way we might not have done a few decades ago.

    Aspiration is therefore not just for us or for the family but for the wider world. We want our communities to be better just as we want our own lives to be better.

    Collectivism (not in the old-fashioned political sense) as a sense of a shared identity and history has been hugely relevant and prevalent of late - it defines us.

    Truss, Kwarteng and those who think as they do have failed (deliberately or otherwise) to recognise this change. It is no longer "dog eat dog" - greed is no longer good, Guizot is now passé.

    Bottom Line: this isn't what people wanted, or expected, after the Pandemic.

    The Tories are out of touch with the public mood and are now destined to be turfed out of office big time, at the earliest opportunity.

  • rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    WillG said:

    Leon said:

    The idea that the UK government should not change policy direction from that promised, by manifesto, in 2019 - when there has literally been a once-in-a-century global plague and an almost-unprecedented European war in the interim - is beyond preposterous

    Of course they will adapt to the circumstances. That is the nature of executive government. We get to change this government at elections once every five years max

    Also: we can naturally change our system if we wish. We could have government guided by referenda, a la Suisse, if we desire. Heck we could have government by daily opinion poll. And maybe we should? Fact it: it's all up to us, and our governments will make real decisions with real impact

    We are now free to govern ourselves as we wish, thanks to Brexit

    Yes, the UK government has every right to change policy as it wants to. And when that change is economically illiterate, the financial markets have every right to sell UK plc to reduce their risk. And the Great British public have every right to observe the clusterf*ck and decide to vote against the government.

    The Tories screwed up big time and will get hammered for it at the next election. Democracy working as it should.
    I completely agree. That is a functioning democracy

    I am on the right. I generally want the Tories to win (usually, but not always - I saw the need for Blair in 97)

    But the Tories have fucked things up royally, on several occasions, in the last 12 years. And I therefore imagine the British people will kick these decadent Tory fuckers into the gutter in 2024, feeling like it is time for a change. And even though I will regret the missed opportunities of 2010-2024 I will cheer British democracy for doing what it does: expressing the will of the people

    There will be no Trumpite coup attempt, when Liz Truss loses

    THIS is why I voted Leave in 2014. To restore power to the British voters. If these British voters exercise their votes in ways I dislike, so be it. I am content, that's the way it works
    You voted Leave in 2014?
    Vote early, vote often!
  • Scott_xP said:

    Thanks to Brexit, we can choose to sack our dangerous incompetents.

    How do we sack Kwasi before he crashes any more?
    We can't, but the election is will come soon enough.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    carnforth said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Here’s the full, critical IMF statement released tonight about the UK. “We do not recommend” big fiscal moves. Nov23 Budget a chance to “reevaluate” (ie change) the big tax cuts just announced. Yikes. https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1574852489433825280/photo/1

    Fuck them and their pathetic opining on whether the UK's tax changes will result in 'inequality' - Mind your own fucking business.
    Is that you Liz?
    Plainly it's too much to hope for that a remainer has a shred of appreciation for how utterly out of order it is for a series of figures from international bodies to seek to intervene in the domestic policies of the elected UK Government. If someone from the IMF kicked you in the face you'd send them a letter of thanks.
    Will you be saying that when the UK goes cap in hand for an IMF loan?
    It must be terrible to be so full of craven self-loathing.
    It’s not the package of tax cuts and push for growth in particular Lucky - it’s the amount of borrowing to freeze the energy market that has no costings done for it but involves vast swathes of all that borrowed money handed out to so many who don’t need hand out.

    I’m putting you in charge at the IMF Lucky with task to comment on what UK is borrowing for the freeze, and how they will be using the incredible amount of borrowed money - let’s be honest you would come out with exactly the same comment? Why? Becuase you don’t have to be paid by the IMF to say it, you can see for yourself right now that it’s quite simply the wrong bonkers route to have gone down.

    UK politics and the world outside is now waking up to the stupid thing the UK has done here with such massive borrowing for unnecessary hand outs to so many who don’t need it. The up to 45B of welcome with a few controversial tax cuts is mere fluff round the edges easily brushed off - the UKs mistake to borrow so much to freeze its energy market is so big it can tip the whole world into recession.
    Yes. The subtext of the IMF statement is 'we dont want you doing the energy bailout' hence the 'targetted' comments. Reversing 2 billion for the 45p rate will make zero difference to the macro picture.
    This needs to be made clear. These interventions, the markets etc are NOT about the 45p tax rate
    One thing the Labour Party have done well in, is making all this about the 45p rate. Even though its utterly untrue.

    But politically, who can blame them? The Chancellor did rather make a rod for his own back with it.
    Keeping 45p and removing the 100000 cliff-edge would have cost more, but been politically much more easily accepted.




    IIRC no one really cared when Cameron reduced


    the 50p rate to 45p, but perhaps I am mis-remembering.
    I think there was some grumbling but nothing like on this scale. The CoL crisis provided the malign context. Twit and Krazi are tin-eared clowns.
  • moonshine said:

    This IMF statement is extraordinary. The cut to the 45% tax rate is fiscally irrelevant. So why are they making a public pronouncement to the effect it must be reversed and that they are “monitoring the UK”?

    I suspect there’s far more going on right now than meets the eye. There’s no rational reason for UK gilts to be attacked in this way.

    Markets aren't always rational.

  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,275
    Truss and Kwarteng have now taken sole ownership of the mortgage chaos and rise in interest rates . People don’t forget having to find hundreds of pounds more per month because of government policies .

    There’s one thing the BOE reacting to global events , it’s quite another having to combat the idiocy of the government .
This discussion has been closed.