Leon said:

I am alarmingly attracted to the lady who dishes out the fruit cake on this train

Has two arms, legs, boobs and wears a skirt?

FrancisUrquhart said:

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

So like is Gareth good now or what

Same as before this game, very limited manager.

Only the second most successful England manager ever.

Leon said:

I am alarmingly attracted to the lady who dishes out the fruit cake on this train

Eighteen to eighty, if they can't walk, wheel 'em in...

It's those oysters that does it.

rcs1000 said:

rottenborough said:

We really, really need a mild winter...


OECD Economics
@OECDeconomy
In the 🇪🇺, gas supply #disruptions from reduced Russian flows risk hitting the #economy hard.

In case of a cold winter & without alternative sources, European #gas storage levels will fall dangerously low – below 30%.

Sizeable gas demand reduction measures are needed.

https://twitter.com/OECDeconomy/status/1574372249272217601

Actually, those numbers are about as good as you would hope. Europe can survive this winter, even if it is painful.

Here in northern Europe, we are now covered and the LNG terminal is ready, and the Baltic has been one of the most exposed gas markets to Russia. If the Russians were to cut the electrical power link then the estimate is that we can detune the network to draw power from the Finnish and Swedish power links and restore service in about five-ten hours, so the emergency App ("Be Prepared") here suggests we all should have sufficient candles just in case. Blankets and sleeping bags at the ready if it gets normally cold. There is confidence that Estonia would not be hit badly, even if the Russians cut everything. In fact, disconnecting the Estonian thermal stations from the Russian grid would probably cause more problems for the Russians since they would lose their peak load capacity.

The UK may have a more fragile infrastructure, but it does have better supplies, so the issues are actually easier in Britain.

Another snap military exercise yesterday, but the outlook is looking a bit better each time. The border is now closed, but there are quite a few Russian exiles that have joined the nearly 55,000 Ukrainian refugees. They are not particularly welcome, the view being that they should fight Putin if they don´t want to fight Ukraine.

I met with some Ukrainians visiting the Baltic Defence College. Tough, Professional. Focused.

The news from Russia is on everyone´s minds, but a further major advance by the UAF seems to be underway. I understand it has been more or less a massacre of newly arrived Russian conscript troops. Poor equipment, zero training, not even useful as cannon fodder.

Russia is taking some serious punishment. Meanwhile in a recent picture with the increasingly porcine Lukashenka in Sochi, Putin looks more like Skeletor.

rottenborough said:

Samuel Tombs
@samueltombs
·
4h
If mortgage rates rise to 6%—as implied by markets’ current expectations for Bank Rate—the average household refinancing a 2yr fixed rate mortgage in the first half of 2023 will see *monthly* repayments jump to £1,490, from £863. Many simply won’t be able to afford this

https://twitter.com/samueltombs

Fascinated to see how the Government sets about trying to blame this on the Labour Party or the EU.

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

EXCLUSIVE

Labour has a **17 point** lead over the Tories, Yougov poll for The Times finds

It's the biggest lead since Yougov started polling in 2001

Six in 10 voters think Kwarteng's budget was unfair - the worst rating of any fiscal event since 2010

20 point lead NAILED ON

What point is an existential event for Tories - leaving only ultra safe seats? 25% 23%?

Saka should score there

LAB 80% clear soon.

Oh no that's the inflation rate 😈👿

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V6QhAZckY8w

Not much longer now.

Lord Cox as Minister for Space.

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

Labour 45
Tories 28

THINGS CAN ONLY GET BETTER

That was even conducted before today’s pound drama which makes that poll even more jaw dropping .

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

YouGov’s survey, which was conducted over the weekend, showed that Tory support had fallen by four points to 28 per cent in the aftermath of the budget while Labour’s had risen five points to 45 per cent and the Lib Dems were unchanged on 8 per cent.

A 9 point swing in a week. Keir Starmer is the greatest Labour leader since Blair. Thanks Liz

I am warmining to Starmer, but I’d reserve that judgement until after the election.

rottenborough said:

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

EXCLUSIVE

Labour has a **17 point** lead over the Tories, Yougov poll for The Times finds

It's the biggest lead since Yougov started polling in 2001

Six in 10 voters think Kwarteng's budget was unfair - the worst rating of any fiscal event since 2010

20 point lead NAILED ON

What point is an existential event for Tories - leaving only ultra safe seats? 25% 23%?

MPs will be shitting it. And rightly so. The perception of incompetence is baked in

Anabobazina said:

Saka should score there

First touch took him too wide and never recovered. Still forced a good save.

Labour has surged to its largest poll lead over the Conservatives in more than two decades, with voters turning against Kwasi Kwarteng’s tax-cutting budget. A YouGov poll for The Times today puts Labour 17 points clear of the Tories — a level of support not seen since Tony Blair won his landslide victory in 2001.

The survey revealed widespread public opposition, including among Tory supporters, to the tax-cutting measures announced by the chancellor last week.

Kwarteng’s decision to scrap the 45 per cent rate of tax for those earning more than £150,000 was opposed by 72 per cent of voters including 69 per cent of those who backed the Conservatives in 2019.

The move to lift restrictions on bankers’ bonuses was rejected by 71 per cent of the electorate, including 67 per cent of Tory voters.

Just 9 per cent of voters thought that the measures outlined in the budget would make them better off, while only 15 per cent believed they would achieve the government’s aim of kickstarting economic growth.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/5b0f28de-3dd5-11ed-b24d-96120f17513d

rottenborough said:

turbotubbs said:

rottenborough said:

Samuel Tombs
@samueltombs
·
4h
If mortgage rates rise to 6%—as implied by markets’ current expectations for Bank Rate—the average household refinancing a 2yr fixed rate mortgage in the first half of 2023 will see *monthly* repayments jump to £1,490, from £863. Many simply won’t be able to afford this

https://twitter.com/samueltombs

I thought the idea was to borrow what was affordable including potential future rate rises?

I asked this earlier.

Surely we are not back in the world where the lenders don't stress test the finances of the lendee for an interest rate rise of a few %?

Possibly. At my remortgage interviews the Lloyds chap only asked what we could afford to pay and based the term on that. I was fixing up a 10 year fix deal, though.

Conference poll. Ignore.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Labour has surged to its largest poll lead over the Conservatives in more than two decades, with voters turning against Kwasi Kwarteng’s tax-cutting budget. A YouGov poll for The Times today puts Labour 17 points clear of the Tories — a level of support not seen since Tony Blair won his landslide victory in 2001.

The survey revealed widespread public opposition, including among Tory supporters, to the tax-cutting measures announced by the chancellor last week.

Kwarteng’s decision to scrap the 45 per cent rate of tax for those earning more than £150,000 was opposed by 72 per cent of voters including 69 per cent of those who backed the Conservatives in 2019.

The move to lift restrictions on bankers’ bonuses was rejected by 71 per cent of the electorate, including 67 per cent of Tory voters.

Just 9 per cent of voters thought that the measures outlined in the budget would make them better off, while only 15 per cent believed they would achieve the government’s aim of kickstarting economic growth.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/5b0f28de-3dd5-11ed-b24d-96120f17513d

9%?

That's a lot of people assuming they are far richer than in fact they are.

pigeon said:

rottenborough said:

Samuel Tombs
@samueltombs
·
4h
If mortgage rates rise to 6%—as implied by markets’ current expectations for Bank Rate—the average household refinancing a 2yr fixed rate mortgage in the first half of 2023 will see *monthly* repayments jump to £1,490, from £863. Many simply won’t be able to afford this

https://twitter.com/samueltombs

Fascinated to see how the Government sets about trying to blame this on the Labour Party or the EU.

It's because Labour were talking down the country. That takes care of them.

It's because the EU is sabotaging the UK as punishment over the NI Protoco. That's them too.

rottenborough said:

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

EXCLUSIVE

Labour has a **17 point** lead over the Tories, Yougov poll for The Times finds

It's the biggest lead since Yougov started polling in 2001

Six in 10 voters think Kwarteng's budget was unfair - the worst rating of any fiscal event since 2010

20 point lead NAILED ON

What point is an existential event for Tories - leaving only ultra safe seats? 25% 23%?

Get down to about 27-28% and it becomes a rout with a three figure Labour majority, even if the SNP execute a near clean sweep. Much below that and you're into extinction level event territory, with the Tories under a hundred seats.

It won't get anything like that bad for them because old people will bail them out.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Kaboom

And, notably, not due to a surge for FarageUK. Straight Labour gains.

A contrary (contrarian?) view from Bloomberg:

“Truss’s Economic Plan Isn’t the Disaster Everyone Says It Is”

https://archive.ph/6o2zz

TheScreamingEagles said:

YouGov’s survey, which was conducted over the weekend, showed that Tory support had fallen by four points to 28 per cent in the aftermath of the budget while Labour’s had risen five points to 45 per cent and the Lib Dems were unchanged on 8 per cent.

She wanted "unpopular".

kle4 said:

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

YouGov’s survey, which was conducted over the weekend, showed that Tory support had fallen by four points to 28 per cent in the aftermath of the budget while Labour’s had risen five points to 45 per cent and the Lib Dems were unchanged on 8 per cent.

A 9 point swing in a week. Keir Starmer is the greatest Labour leader since Blair. Thanks Liz

Poor LDs? Does no one out there want a (generally, as compared to the government) sensible, non-Labour option?

One should not discount the possibility that the Lib Dems could do reasonably well from tactical voting in the event of a Conservative rout. If the primary objective of your anti-Tory voter is just to burn the Tories rather than specifically to back Labour, then you might well look at the local situation and see who's best placed to do it. I'll be doing just that myself, I suspect.

Well

Fair bit of restlessness among Tory MPs who backed Sunak. Last wk some said to me they were impressed by Truss & wanted this policy to work. Apparently today they’re all sharing Sunak’s warnings from campaign about what these tax cuts could mean for sterling & interest rates 1/

One had said on Friday the strategy was “either brilliant or bonkers”. Today they said to me they fear it’s leaning bonkers. 2/

https://twitter.com/AnushkaAsthana/status/1574501696063127584

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Labour has surged to its largest poll lead over the Conservatives in more than two decades, with voters turning against Kwasi Kwarteng’s tax-cutting budget. A YouGov poll for The Times today puts Labour 17 points clear of the Tories — a level of support not seen since Tony Blair won his landslide victory in 2001.

The survey revealed widespread public opposition, including among Tory supporters, to the tax-cutting measures announced by the chancellor last week.

Kwarteng’s decision to scrap the 45 per cent rate of tax for those earning more than £150,000 was opposed by 72 per cent of voters including 69 per cent of those who backed the Conservatives in 2019.

The move to lift restrictions on bankers’ bonuses was rejected by 71 per cent of the electorate, including 67 per cent of Tory voters.

Just 9 per cent of voters thought that the measures outlined in the budget would make them better off, while only 15 per cent believed they would achieve the government’s aim of kickstarting economic growth.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/5b0f28de-3dd5-11ed-b24d-96120f17513d

And so predictable

I do not know what happens next but conservative mps need to take action to sack Kwarteng and obviously Truss is in real trouble

Hope Brady's postman has a strong back tomorrow morning.

Why would you do two things that would infuriate large sections of the public . Removing the cap on bankers bonuses and dropping the 45% rate .

This must be one of the biggest political own goals of all time .

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Kaboom

On that poll Truss would lead the Tories to their worst ever voteshare, even lower than the 30% Major got in 1997 and the 29% the Duke of Wellington got in 1832.

Looks like removing Boris was an own goal

No it wasn't - just the winning candidate was

@CorrectHorseBattery3 calm down man

TheScreamingEagles said:

Kaboom

That'll be me smoking next to a bust gas pipe.
Still. The bloody front of pointing it out.

FrankBooth said:

Are we not getting things a little out of proportion on the global impact of Kwasi's statement? I mean is the UK really so significant that our sneezing will lead to everyone else catching cold.

They must know how we love to have our sense of self importance reinforced?

It's more of a systemic risk, I think. Despite all the discussion today it's quite a jolt to realise how the UK is being seriously discussed now n that same way aa Italy and Greece were a long timr ago now - a systemic risk to global financial stablity.

Incredibly you can back Kwarteng for leader at 16 on BF.

16!!! You are having a laff aren't you. 160 would be closer.

Scott_xP said:

Fair bit of restlessness among Tory MPs who backed Sunak. Last wk some said to me they were impressed by Truss & wanted this policy to work. Apparently today they’re all sharing Sunak’s warnings from campaign about what these tax cuts could mean for sterling & interest rates 1/

One had said on Friday the strategy was “either brilliant or bonkers”. Today they said to me they fear it’s leaning bonkers. 2/

https://twitter.com/AnushkaAsthana/status/1574501696063127584

Brilliantly bonkers?

Labour are starting to look like the real thing. Just keep Angela Rayner away from the cameras until after the election and we could be into a '97 type victory.

Truss and Kwarteng.....Starmer must be pinching himself.

Wow! The worst exchange rate against the Dollar since 1792 which means the worst ever. "This shouldn't happen to a G7 currency' says Faisal Islam.

turbotubbs said:

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

turbotubbs said:

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

There is a scenario where Labour get a 200 seat majority.

I think you need to calm down a tad. It’s looking more and more likely that labour will lead the next government, possibly with a majority. But we are still in mid term, with some tricky conditions.
Gas prices have fallen significantly. The war may well resolve sooner than expected. And people vote differently in elections to what they said two years before.

My central forecast is Labour minority Government.

But there is a scenario where Labour get a 200 seat majority

There is also a scenario where the Tories increase their majority. Two years in, the Truss gamble is seen as a game changing success. The U.K. economy is growing strongly, while the EU stagnates. The war in Ukraine ended in late 2022 with Putin being removed from office in a 1989 style revolution and Truss was the first to visit Kiev to receive the medal. Englands World Cup wins (Mens Football in 2022, womens rugby the same) led to a huge popular upsurge of national confidence, even in Wales, who lost the WC final to England.
Etc

Did Arsenal make top 4?

OnlyLivingBoy said:

ydoethur said:

rottenborough said:

pigeon said:

Cost of living: Families bringing boarded-up fires back into use

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-humber-62984561

Oh look, not only are living standards being blasted back to the 1950s*, it looks like we're going to have smog to go with it. Lovely.

*Except for Tory MPs, party donors, and other bulk consumers of foie gras

Had my first wood burner fire of the season yesterday evening. Gas central heating remains firmly off.

Managing without so far, but if we don't have much sun in the next few days I might be lighting my stove too.

With the London microclimate I reckon we can get through to November before the heating goes on.

In east London, turned the heating on today and yesterday but only for an hour or so.