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Worrying poll findings for Truss from YouGov and R&K – politicalbetting.com

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  • Leon said:

    I am alarmingly attracted to the lady who dishes out the fruit cake on this train

    Has two arms, legs, boobs and wears a skirt?
  • IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Blimey indeed. Extraordinary intervention. A senior US Fed official effectively calling on Truss and Kwarteng to abandon their budget plan to avoid sparking a global crisis. Shades of Suez. https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1574470381733384195

    Well they can fuck off

    I suggest we ask them to “stop having coups” because they are frightening the horses
    Raphael W. Bostic is a wacky looking fucker, but I am sure we can all adhere to his proposals.
    I'm impressed that Truss and Kwarteng have taken just two weeks to smoke out the Fed thinking that they control the economic policy of the elected Government of the UK. High time they were told to fuck off and do their worst.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,522

    So like is Gareth good now or what

    Same as before this game, very limited manager.
    Only the second most successful England manager ever.
  • Labour 45
    Tories 28

    THINGS CAN ONLY GET BETTER
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,061
    edited September 2022
    Leon said:

    I am alarmingly attracted to the lady who dishes out the fruit cake on this train

    Eighteen to eighty, if they can't walk, wheel 'em in...

    It's those oysters that does it.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,735
    ...
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 2,179
    edited September 2022
    rcs1000 said:

    We really, really need a mild winter...


    OECD Economics
    @OECDeconomy
    In the 🇪🇺, gas supply #disruptions from reduced Russian flows risk hitting the #economy hard.

    In case of a cold winter & without alternative sources, European #gas storage levels will fall dangerously low – below 30%.

    Sizeable gas demand reduction measures are needed.

    https://twitter.com/OECDeconomy/status/1574372249272217601


    Actually, those numbers are about as good as you would hope. Europe can survive this winter, even if it is painful.
    Here in northern Europe, we are now covered and the LNG terminal is ready, and the Baltic has been one of the most exposed gas markets to Russia. If the Russians were to cut the electrical power link then the estimate is that we can detune the network to draw power from the Finnish and Swedish power links and restore service in about five-ten hours, so the emergency App ("Be Prepared") here suggests we all should have sufficient candles just in case. Blankets and sleeping bags at the ready if it gets normally cold. There is confidence that Estonia would not be hit badly, even if the Russians cut everything. In fact, disconnecting the Estonian thermal stations from the Russian grid would probably cause more problems for the Russians since they would lose their peak load capacity.

    The UK may have a more fragile infrastructure, but it does have better supplies, so the issues are actually easier in Britain.

    Another snap military exercise yesterday, but the outlook is looking a bit better each time. The border is now closed, but there are quite a few Russian exiles that have joined the nearly 55,000 Ukrainian refugees. They are not particularly welcome, the view being that they should fight Putin if they don´t want to fight Ukraine.

    I met with some Ukrainians visiting the Baltic Defence College. Tough, Professional. Focused.

    The news from Russia is on everyone´s minds, but a further major advance by the UAF seems to be underway. I understand it has been more or less a massacre of newly arrived Russian conscript troops. Poor equipment, zero training, not even useful as cannon fodder.

    Russia is taking some serious punishment. Meanwhile in a recent picture with the increasingly porcine Lukashenka in Sochi, Putin looks more like Skeletor.
  • YouGov’s survey, which was conducted over the weekend, showed that Tory support had fallen by four points to 28 per cent in the aftermath of the budget while Labour’s had risen five points to 45 per cent and the Lib Dems were unchanged on 8 per cent.

    A 9 point swing in a week. Keir Starmer is the greatest Labour leader since Blair. Thanks Liz
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,087


    Samuel Tombs
    @samueltombs
    ·
    4h
    If mortgage rates rise to 6%—as implied by markets’ current expectations for Bank Rate—the average household refinancing a 2yr fixed rate mortgage in the first half of 2023 will see *monthly* repayments jump to £1,490, from £863. Many simply won’t be able to afford this

    https://twitter.com/samueltombs

    Fascinated to see how the Government sets about trying to blame this on the Labour Party or the EU.
  • I have had difficulty getting a small trolley when I shop at Asda, even from the trolley parks, and I asked the customer service desk and believe or not they source their trolleys from Russia and have had to arrange alternative sources, and expect a supply by the 30th September

    Amazing how this war interferes with so much

    Crikey - how many do they get through? I recognise old friends at Waitrose, such as mr squeaky wheel…
    Apparently a lot are taken off the premises but this has gone on for months

    Unfortunately I cannot use the large deep one due to my mobility issues
  • EXCLUSIVE

    Labour has a **17 point** lead over the Tories, Yougov poll for The Times finds

    It's the biggest lead since Yougov started polling in 2001

    Six in 10 voters think Kwarteng's budget was unfair - the worst rating of any fiscal event since 2010

    20 point lead NAILED ON

    What point is an existential event for Tories - leaving only ultra safe seats? 25% 23%?

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited September 2022
    Driver said:

    So like is Gareth good now or what

    Same as before this game, very limited manager.
    Only the second most successful England manager ever.
    That's thanks to the amazing job the EPL academies have done producing more English talent than in modern times. He has a golden generation of gifted players to choose from.....but then he doesn't pick Champions League and Series A winners in defence, instead a massive slab head who can't even get in a shit Man Utd team and responsible for 2 goals being conceded tonight.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,611
    Saka should score there
  • boulay said:

    Southgate is shit.

    I really do not know why he is so favoured to be honest
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,061

    Labour 45
    Tories 28

    THINGS CAN ONLY GET BETTER

    3 points to go, but that is within MoE...
  • LAB 80% clear soon.

    Oh no that's the inflation rate 😈👿
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    pigeon said:


    Samuel Tombs
    @samueltombs
    ·
    4h
    If mortgage rates rise to 6%—as implied by markets’ current expectations for Bank Rate—the average household refinancing a 2yr fixed rate mortgage in the first half of 2023 will see *monthly* repayments jump to £1,490, from £863. Many simply won’t be able to afford this

    https://twitter.com/samueltombs

    Fascinated to see how the Government sets about trying to blame this on the Labour Party or the EU.
    It's interest rates so the problem rests with the Bank of England...

    Well we all know it doesn't rest there but its the only people Kami Kwazi can plausibly point at and blame...
  • EPGEPG Posts: 5,996
    Lord Cox as Minister for Space.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 4,533

    Labour 45
    Tories 28

    THINGS CAN ONLY GET BETTER

    That was even conducted before today’s pound drama which makes that poll even more jaw dropping .

  • Samuel Tombs
    @samueltombs
    ·
    4h
    If mortgage rates rise to 6%—as implied by markets’ current expectations for Bank Rate—the average household refinancing a 2yr fixed rate mortgage in the first half of 2023 will see *monthly* repayments jump to £1,490, from £863. Many simply won’t be able to afford this

    https://twitter.com/samueltombs

    I thought the idea was to borrow what was affordable including potential future rate rises?
    I asked this earlier.

    Surely we are not back in the world where the lenders don't stress test the finances of the lendee for an interest rate rise of a few %?

  • Foxy said:

    Labour 45
    Tories 28

    THINGS CAN ONLY GET BETTER

    3 points to go, but that is within MoE...
    It is so nice to be right once again, to much laughter from many on here as usual
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 14,878

    YouGov’s survey, which was conducted over the weekend, showed that Tory support had fallen by four points to 28 per cent in the aftermath of the budget while Labour’s had risen five points to 45 per cent and the Lib Dems were unchanged on 8 per cent.

    A 9 point swing in a week. Keir Starmer is the greatest Labour leader since Blair. Thanks Liz

    I am warmining to Starmer, but I’d reserve that judgement until after the election.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,748
    edited September 2022
    Leon said:

    I am alarmingly attracted to the lady who dishes out the fruit cake on this train

    *lady*
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,973

    EXCLUSIVE

    Labour has a **17 point** lead over the Tories, Yougov poll for The Times finds

    It's the biggest lead since Yougov started polling in 2001

    Six in 10 voters think Kwarteng's budget was unfair - the worst rating of any fiscal event since 2010

    20 point lead NAILED ON

    What point is an existential event for Tories - leaving only ultra safe seats? 25% 23%?

    MPs will be shitting it. And rightly so. The perception of incompetence is baked in
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,522

    Labour 45
    Tories 28

    THINGS CAN ONLY GET BETTER

    ... By putting up taxes...
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 14,878

    Saka should score there

    First touch took him too wide and never recovered. Still forced a good save.

  • Samuel Tombs
    @samueltombs
    ·
    4h
    If mortgage rates rise to 6%—as implied by markets’ current expectations for Bank Rate—the average household refinancing a 2yr fixed rate mortgage in the first half of 2023 will see *monthly* repayments jump to £1,490, from £863. Many simply won’t be able to afford this

    https://twitter.com/samueltombs

    I thought the idea was to borrow what was affordable including potential future rate rises?
    I asked this earlier.

    Surely we are not back in the world where the lenders don't stress test the finances of the lendee for an interest rate rise of a few %?

    We got rid of it in August because keeping it would move down house prices.

    https://cunningtons.co.uk/mortgage-stress-test-ends/#:~:text=The Bank of England decided,over the last few years.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,005
    Are we not getting things a little out of proportion on the global impact of Kwasi's statement? I mean is the UK really so significant that our sneezing will lead to everyone else catching cold.

    They must know how we love to have our sense of self importance reinforced?
  • Labour has surged to its largest poll lead over the Conservatives in more than two decades, with voters turning against Kwasi Kwarteng’s tax-cutting budget. A YouGov poll for The Times today puts Labour 17 points clear of the Tories — a level of support not seen since Tony Blair won his landslide victory in 2001.

    The survey revealed widespread public opposition, including among Tory supporters, to the tax-cutting measures announced by the chancellor last week.

    Kwarteng’s decision to scrap the 45 per cent rate of tax for those earning more than £150,000 was opposed by 72 per cent of voters including 69 per cent of those who backed the Conservatives in 2019.

    The move to lift restrictions on bankers’ bonuses was rejected by 71 per cent of the electorate, including 67 per cent of Tory voters.

    Just 9 per cent of voters thought that the measures outlined in the budget would make them better off, while only 15 per cent believed they would achieve the government’s aim of kickstarting economic growth.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/5b0f28de-3dd5-11ed-b24d-96120f17513d
  • When the Tories led by 17 points we asked here if Labour was terminal.

    So now I ask, what about the Tories? Perhaps now they will split.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 14,878


    Samuel Tombs
    @samueltombs
    ·
    4h
    If mortgage rates rise to 6%—as implied by markets’ current expectations for Bank Rate—the average household refinancing a 2yr fixed rate mortgage in the first half of 2023 will see *monthly* repayments jump to £1,490, from £863. Many simply won’t be able to afford this

    https://twitter.com/samueltombs

    I thought the idea was to borrow what was affordable including potential future rate rises?
    I asked this earlier.

    Surely we are not back in the world where the lenders don't stress test the finances of the lendee for an interest rate rise of a few %?

    Possibly. At my remortgage interviews the Lloyds chap only asked what we could afford to pay and based the term on that. I was fixing up a 10 year fix deal, though.
  • EXCLUSIVE

    Labour has a **17 point** lead over the Tories, Yougov poll for The Times finds

    It's the biggest lead since Yougov started polling in 2001

    Six in 10 voters think Kwarteng's budget was unfair - the worst rating of any fiscal event since 2010

    20 point lead NAILED ON

    What point is an existential event for Tories - leaving only ultra safe seats? 25% 23%?

    It already is and goodness knows how they address it other than by sacking Kwarteng and then Truss ?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,611
    Conference poll. Ignore.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    YouGov’s survey, which was conducted over the weekend, showed that Tory support had fallen by four points to 28 per cent in the aftermath of the budget while Labour’s had risen five points to 45 per cent and the Lib Dems were unchanged on 8 per cent.

    A 9 point swing in a week. Keir Starmer is the greatest Labour leader since Blair. Thanks Liz

    Poor LDs? Does no one out there want a (generally, as compared to the government) sensible, non-Labour option?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Foxy said:

    Labour 45
    Tories 28

    THINGS CAN ONLY GET BETTER

    3 points to go, but that is within MoE...
    It is so nice to be right once again, to much laughter from many on here as usual
    I thought you were betting on con lead sept? Anyway, less of the laughed at me/not laughing now bollocks, it's been clear to everybody but barty for months that lab were in the ascendant. I have been tipping lab maj next ge so much, I have even bored myself.
  • Net approval ratings: Keir Starmer: +2% (–) Liz Truss: -6% (-10). Best PM: Keir Starmer 38% (+3) Liz Truss 34% (-6). Redfield & Wilton, Changes +/- 21 September

    It's Liz causing this
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    Labour has surged to its largest poll lead over the Conservatives in more than two decades, with voters turning against Kwasi Kwarteng’s tax-cutting budget. A YouGov poll for The Times today puts Labour 17 points clear of the Tories — a level of support not seen since Tony Blair won his landslide victory in 2001.

    The survey revealed widespread public opposition, including among Tory supporters, to the tax-cutting measures announced by the chancellor last week.

    Kwarteng’s decision to scrap the 45 per cent rate of tax for those earning more than £150,000 was opposed by 72 per cent of voters including 69 per cent of those who backed the Conservatives in 2019.

    The move to lift restrictions on bankers’ bonuses was rejected by 71 per cent of the electorate, including 67 per cent of Tory voters.

    Just 9 per cent of voters thought that the measures outlined in the budget would make them better off, while only 15 per cent believed they would achieve the government’s aim of kickstarting economic growth.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/5b0f28de-3dd5-11ed-b24d-96120f17513d

    9%?

    That's a lot of people assuming they are far richer than in fact they are.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 3,853
    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Blimey indeed. Extraordinary intervention. A senior US Fed official effectively calling on Truss and Kwarteng to abandon their budget plan to avoid sparking a global crisis. Shades of Suez. https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1574470381733384195

    Well they can fuck off

    I suggest we ask them to “stop having coups” because they are frightening the horses
    US sticking their beak in is the Brexit style wedge she needs.
    'Who are the US or anyone else to tell us how to grow our economy?'
    Quite right.
    Who in the hell should tell me not to saw through the gas pipes whilst smoking?
    Bloody cheek of it.
    I think the Fed sawed through the pipes.

    We just brought a match to the proceedings.
  • IshmaelZ said:

    Foxy said:

    Labour 45
    Tories 28

    THINGS CAN ONLY GET BETTER

    3 points to go, but that is within MoE...
    It is so nice to be right once again, to much laughter from many on here as usual
    I thought you were betting on con lead sept? Anyway, less of the laughed at me/not laughing now bollocks, it's been clear to everybody but barty for months that lab were in the ascendant. I have been tipping lab maj next ge so much, I have even bored myself.
    I was saying Tory lead in Sept with Opinium but Labour 20 point lead longer term. Not mutually exclusive. I lost my bet.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 14,878

    Conference poll. Ignore.

    Ah yes, the old conference turbulence.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    pigeon said:


    Samuel Tombs
    @samueltombs
    ·
    4h
    If mortgage rates rise to 6%—as implied by markets’ current expectations for Bank Rate—the average household refinancing a 2yr fixed rate mortgage in the first half of 2023 will see *monthly* repayments jump to £1,490, from £863. Many simply won’t be able to afford this

    https://twitter.com/samueltombs

    Fascinated to see how the Government sets about trying to blame this on the Labour Party or the EU.
    It's because Labour were talking down the country. That takes care of them.

    It's because the EU is sabotaging the UK as punishment over the NI Protoco. That's them too.
  • Kaboom


  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,087

    EXCLUSIVE

    Labour has a **17 point** lead over the Tories, Yougov poll for The Times finds

    It's the biggest lead since Yougov started polling in 2001

    Six in 10 voters think Kwarteng's budget was unfair - the worst rating of any fiscal event since 2010

    20 point lead NAILED ON

    What point is an existential event for Tories - leaving only ultra safe seats? 25% 23%?

    Get down to about 27-28% and it becomes a rout with a three figure Labour majority, even if the SNP execute a near clean sweep. Much below that and you're into extinction level event territory, with the Tories under a hundred seats.

    It won't get anything like that bad for them because old people will bail them out.
  • Labour has surged to its largest poll lead over the Conservatives in more than two decades, with voters turning against Kwasi Kwarteng’s tax-cutting budget. A YouGov poll for The Times today puts Labour 17 points clear of the Tories — a level of support not seen since Tony Blair won his landslide victory in 2001.

    The survey revealed widespread public opposition, including among Tory supporters, to the tax-cutting measures announced by the chancellor last week.

    Kwarteng’s decision to scrap the 45 per cent rate of tax for those earning more than £150,000 was opposed by 72 per cent of voters including 69 per cent of those who backed the Conservatives in 2019.

    The move to lift restrictions on bankers’ bonuses was rejected by 71 per cent of the electorate, including 67 per cent of Tory voters.

    Just 9 per cent of voters thought that the measures outlined in the budget would make them better off, while only 15 per cent believed they would achieve the government’s aim of kickstarting economic growth.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/5b0f28de-3dd5-11ed-b24d-96120f17513d

    And so predictable

    I do not know what happens next but conservative mps need to take action to sack Kwarteng and obviously Truss is in real trouble
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    Kaboom


    And, notably, not due to a surge for FarageUK. Straight Labour gains.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 5,996
    And look at that saucy 7% Green vote bank.
  • There is a scenario where Labour get a 200 seat majority.
  • YouGov’s survey, which was conducted over the weekend, showed that Tory support had fallen by four points to 28 per cent in the aftermath of the budget while Labour’s had risen five points to 45 per cent and the Lib Dems were unchanged on 8 per cent.

  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 3,054
    edited September 2022
    A contrary (contrarian?) view from Bloomberg:

    “Truss’s Economic Plan Isn’t the Disaster Everyone Says It Is”

    https://archive.ph/6o2zz
  • There's nothing more likely to get me out canvassing for the Tories again than the prospect of hearing that bloody D:Ream song again.

    Perhaps the Tory anthem should be Soul 2 Soul's "Back to Reality"? "... Back to life, back to the present time. Back from a fantasy, yes ..."
  • YouGov’s survey, which was conducted over the weekend, showed that Tory support had fallen by four points to 28 per cent in the aftermath of the budget while Labour’s had risen five points to 45 per cent and the Lib Dems were unchanged on 8 per cent.

    She wanted "unpopular".

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,735
    Now without doubt the single most economically costly and politically disastrous policy announcement in British political history.
    https://twitter.com/Sime0nStylites/status/1574500151997222912
  • The 2022 Tory Black Wednesday
  • kle4 said:

    Kaboom


    And, notably, not due to a surge for FarageUK. Straight Labour gains.
    Come on Nige. Join in the party!! Start a new vehicle from the right urging more action on migration or a harder brexit or ties for the theatre or something.

  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Kaboom


    Can someone tell us again why lab maj GE is impossible. And how we know that the earth is banana shaped.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,834
    Oh dear, the twenty pointer approaches!
    Going to be a very very long two years
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,087
    kle4 said:

    YouGov’s survey, which was conducted over the weekend, showed that Tory support had fallen by four points to 28 per cent in the aftermath of the budget while Labour’s had risen five points to 45 per cent and the Lib Dems were unchanged on 8 per cent.

    A 9 point swing in a week. Keir Starmer is the greatest Labour leader since Blair. Thanks Liz

    Poor LDs? Does no one out there want a (generally, as compared to the government) sensible, non-Labour option?
    One should not discount the possibility that the Lib Dems could do reasonably well from tactical voting in the event of a Conservative rout. If the primary objective of your anti-Tory voter is just to burn the Tories rather than specifically to back Labour, then you might well look at the local situation and see who's best placed to do it. I'll be doing just that myself, I suspect.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 14,878

    There is a scenario where Labour get a 200 seat majority.

    I think you need to calm down a tad. It’s looking more and more likely that labour will lead the next government, possibly with a majority. But we are still in mid term, with some tricky conditions.
    Gas prices have fallen significantly. The war may well resolve sooner than expected. And people vote differently in elections to what they said two years before.
  • Well


  • There is a scenario where Labour get a 200 seat majority.

    I think you need to calm down a tad. It’s looking more and more likely that labour will lead the next government, possibly with a majority. But we are still in mid term, with some tricky conditions.
    Gas prices have fallen significantly. The war may well resolve sooner than expected. And people vote differently in elections to what they said two years before.
    My central forecast is Labour minority Government.

    But there is a scenario where Labour get a 200 seat majority
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,735
    Fair bit of restlessness among Tory MPs who backed Sunak. Last wk some said to me they were impressed by Truss & wanted this policy to work. Apparently today they’re all sharing Sunak’s warnings from campaign about what these tax cuts could mean for sterling & interest rates 1/

    One had said on Friday the strategy was “either brilliant or bonkers”. Today they said to me they fear it’s leaning bonkers. 2/


    https://twitter.com/AnushkaAsthana/status/1574501696063127584
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    Kaboom


    On that poll Truss would lead the Tories to their worst ever voteshare, even lower than the 30% Major got in 1997 and the 29% the Duke of Wellington got in 1832.

    Looks like removing Boris was an own goal
  • Labour has surged to its largest poll lead over the Conservatives in more than two decades, with voters turning against Kwasi Kwarteng’s tax-cutting budget. A YouGov poll for The Times today puts Labour 17 points clear of the Tories — a level of support not seen since Tony Blair won his landslide victory in 2001.

    The survey revealed widespread public opposition, including among Tory supporters, to the tax-cutting measures announced by the chancellor last week.

    Kwarteng’s decision to scrap the 45 per cent rate of tax for those earning more than £150,000 was opposed by 72 per cent of voters including 69 per cent of those who backed the Conservatives in 2019.

    The move to lift restrictions on bankers’ bonuses was rejected by 71 per cent of the electorate, including 67 per cent of Tory voters.

    Just 9 per cent of voters thought that the measures outlined in the budget would make them better off, while only 15 per cent believed they would achieve the government’s aim of kickstarting economic growth.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/5b0f28de-3dd5-11ed-b24d-96120f17513d

    And so predictable

    I do not know what happens next but conservative mps need to take action to sack Kwarteng and obviously Truss is in real trouble
    Hope Brady's postman has a strong back tomorrow morning.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,735
    The party conference next week is going to have a slightly funereal air...
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 4,533
    edited September 2022
    Why would you do two things that would infuriate large sections of the public . Removing the cap on bankers bonuses and dropping the 45% rate .

    This must be one of the biggest political own goals of all time .

  • EXCLUSIVE

    Labour has a **17 point** lead over the Tories, Yougov poll for The Times finds

    It's the biggest lead since Yougov started polling in 2001

    Six in 10 voters think Kwarteng's budget was unfair - the worst rating of any fiscal event since 2010

    20 point lead NAILED ON

    What point is an existential event for Tories - leaving only ultra safe seats? 25% 23%?

    The very worst poll from the mid 90s was C18.5 L62 in January 1995, though that was more than a bit outliery even at the time.

    (To modern eyes, the scatter on the graph at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_1997_United_Kingdom_general_election looks huge)

    The wost the average got was about C24 L54 in summer 1995, just before "put up or shut up".

    The really shocking thing is that Starmer still hasn't done much apart from not be scary. But against this version of the Conservative party, that looks like being more than enough.
  • HYUFD said:

    Kaboom


    On that poll Truss would lead the Tories to their worst ever voteshare, even lower than the 30% Major got in 1997 and the 29% the Duke of Wellington got in 1832.

    Looks like removing Boris was an own goal
    No it wasn't - just the winning candidate was
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 14,878

    The 2022 Tory Black Wednesday

    Pound seems to have stabilised against the dollar and most currencies are struggling against the dollar. Could it be that the land of the right wing coup is actually the reason for a strong dollar, rather than the U.K. government for a weak pound?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072
    @CorrectHorseBattery3 calm down man
  • NEW THREAD

  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,835

    Kaboom


    That'll be me smoking next to a bust gas pipe.
    Still. The bloody front of pointing it out.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,735

    Could it be that the land of the right wing coup is actually the reason for a strong dollar, rather than the U.K. government for a weak pound?

    The pound fell against the Ruble

    Putin's Russia is a safer investment than Trussonomics
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,480
    edited September 2022

    Are we not getting things a little out of proportion on the global impact of Kwasi's statement? I mean is the UK really so significant that our sneezing will lead to everyone else catching cold.

    They must know how we love to have our sense of self importance reinforced?

    It's more of a systemic risk, I think. Despite all the discussion today it's quite a jolt to realise how the UK is being seriously discussed now n that same way aa Italy and Greece were a long timr ago now - a systemic risk to global financial stablity.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,061

    Kaboom


    That's a much bigger Green vote than there would be at a GE.

    I shouldn't think many Greens are fans of fracking, and scrapping protections for wildlife.

    The Lab lead is probably underestimated.
  • Incredibly you can back Kwarteng for leader at 16 on BF.

    16!!! You are having a laff aren't you. 160 would be closer.

  • It's basically over. Kwarteng did for them.

    Starmer is now the PM-in-waiting and will be for next two years. If they last that long. The media will increasingly treat him as such and it will be almost visible as the power shifts across the landscape and into him and his aides and shadow cabinet.

  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,623
    Scott_xP said:

    Fair bit of restlessness among Tory MPs who backed Sunak. Last wk some said to me they were impressed by Truss & wanted this policy to work. Apparently today they’re all sharing Sunak’s warnings from campaign about what these tax cuts could mean for sterling & interest rates 1/

    One had said on Friday the strategy was “either brilliant or bonkers”. Today they said to me they fear it’s leaning bonkers. 2/


    https://twitter.com/AnushkaAsthana/status/1574501696063127584

    Brilliantly bonkers?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 14,878

    There is a scenario where Labour get a 200 seat majority.

    I think you need to calm down a tad. It’s looking more and more likely that labour will lead the next government, possibly with a majority. But we are still in mid term, with some tricky conditions.
    Gas prices have fallen significantly. The war may well resolve sooner than expected. And people vote differently in elections to what they said two years before.
    My central forecast is Labour minority Government.

    But there is a scenario where Labour get a 200 seat majority
    There is also a scenario where the Tories increase their majority. Two years in, the Truss gamble is seen as a game changing success. The U.K. economy is growing strongly, while the EU stagnates. The war in Ukraine ended in late 2022 with Putin being removed from office in a 1989 style revolution and Truss was the first to visit Kiev to receive the medal. Englands World Cup wins (Mens Football in 2022, womens rugby the same) led to a huge popular upsurge of national confidence, even in Wales, who lost the WC final to England.
    Etc
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    Labour are starting to look like the real thing. Just keep Angela Rayner away from the cameras until after the election and we could be into a '97 type victory.

    Truss and Kwarteng.....Starmer must be pinching himself.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,571
    edited September 2022
    rcs1000 said:

    TimS said:

    In a few days we should be getting a break from the tanking pound and soaring gilts as, in descending order of likelihood, at least one of the following happens:

    1. Hurricane Ian (now quite rapidly intensifying as it heads towards Cuba) brings a big storm surge and bucketloads of rain to Tampa Bay https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2022/09/hurricane-ian-poses-serious-risks-to-florida-gulf-coast/
    2. Ukraine’s troops in Luhansk complete an encirclement and victory in Lyman cutting off Russian troops to the South https://twitter.com/threshedthought/status/1574406408564506628?s=21&t=CZsYZwGNRBLTxBT2qUVyug
    3. The anti mobilisation protests in some Russian republics turn into full on rebellion
    4. Something similar develops from the Iranian protests

    Did you see this story:

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/09/26/mobilization-putin-russia-war-ukraine/

    A young man shot and wounded the chief recruitment officer at a military enlistment station in Russia’s Irkutsk region on Monday

    When people think it's safer to shoot up the recruiting center than to join the army, it's a sign things aren't going well
    Looks like the 🇷🇺 mobilization is going very well…
    https://twitter.com/carlbildt/status/1574429570849284099

    “They shouldn’t be upsetting people…
    …something needs to be done about it…
    should we shoot them ?”
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    Wow! The worst exchange rate against the Dollar since 1792 which means the worst ever. "This shouldn't happen to a G7 currency' says Faisal Islam.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,611
    Conference poll. Ignore.
    kle4 said:

    Kaboom


    And, notably, not due to a surge for FarageUK. Straight Labour gains.
    It’s a conference poll, so ignore it.

    But, on your wider point, there were sources in the papers at the weekend saying that what is different now is that Labour are winning direct switchers from the Tories (rather than grinding out leads via attrition from the minor parties)
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415

    There is a scenario where Labour get a 200 seat majority.

    I think you need to calm down a tad. It’s looking more and more likely that labour will lead the next government, possibly with a majority. But we are still in mid term, with some tricky conditions.
    Gas prices have fallen significantly. The war may well resolve sooner than expected. And people vote differently in elections to what they said two years before.
    My central forecast is Labour minority Government.

    But there is a scenario where Labour get a 200 seat majority
    There is also a scenario where the Tories increase their majority. Two years in, the Truss gamble is seen as a game changing success. The U.K. economy is growing strongly, while the EU stagnates. The war in Ukraine ended in late 2022 with Putin being removed from office in a 1989 style revolution and Truss was the first to visit Kiev to receive the medal. Englands World Cup wins (Mens Football in 2022, womens rugby the same) led to a huge popular upsurge of national confidence, even in Wales, who lost the WC final to England.
    Etc
    Did Arsenal make top 4?
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,461
    New thread
  • ydoethur said:

    pigeon said:

    Cost of living: Families bringing boarded-up fires back into use

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-humber-62984561

    Oh look, not only are living standards being blasted back to the 1950s*, it looks like we're going to have smog to go with it. Lovely.

    *Except for Tory MPs, party donors, and other bulk consumers of foie gras

    Had my first wood burner fire of the season yesterday evening. Gas central heating remains firmly off.

    Managing without so far, but if we don't have much sun in the next few days I might be lighting my stove too.
    With the London microclimate I reckon we can get through to November before the heating goes on.
    In east London, turned the heating on today and yesterday but only for an hour or so.
  • kyf_100 said:

    jonny83 said:

    Well I think I'm fucked. Had an offer on my first ever house accepted on Friday, just trying to get everything sorted/the ball rolling and I have an appointment with my Mortgage advisor on Wednesday. Was looking for a fixed rate for 5 years and it sounds like all the major lenders Halifax etc are pulling their products.

    Going into the meeting on Wednesday with a completely different mindset now and expectation that they will tell me news which means I cannot proceed any further.

    I feel completely beaten.

    Fixed rates will be back - just more expensive

    It sucks.

    But you should rerun the calculations on what you can afford with the new rates and then go back to the seller and ask them to share the pain (by cutting their price).

    You run the risk they say “no” but I suspect they are scared too. In any event, this isn’t the time to over extend yourself

    Good luck!

    PM me if you want

    That calculation will be repeated in transactions across the land - lower affordability of mortgage payments means lower house prices.

    Lower house prices means unhappy pensioners / boomers / other rich people who have enjoyed the extraordinary boom in house prices over the last two decades or so.

    Assuming asset-rich homeowners disproportionately vote Conservative, how will they feel about the value of their primary asset tanking? How will they vote?

    There's a reason the Conservatives have done so much over the last decade to keep the house price ponzi going, from stamp duty relief to "help" to buy (really help to inflate prices).

    Looks like the party is over, there is going to be one hell of a hangover.
    The value of your primary residence is the utility you get from living it. The price doesn’t matter until you sell
This discussion has been closed.