Blimey indeed. Extraordinary intervention. A senior US Fed official effectively calling on Truss and Kwarteng to abandon their budget plan to avoid sparking a global crisis. Shades of Suez. https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1574470381733384195
Well they can fuck off
I suggest we ask them to “stop having coups” because they are frightening the horses
Raphael W. Bostic is a wacky looking fucker, but I am sure we can all adhere to his proposals.
I'm impressed that Truss and Kwarteng have taken just two weeks to smoke out the Fed thinking that they control the economic policy of the elected Government of the UK. High time they were told to fuck off and do their worst.
Actually, those numbers are about as good as you would hope. Europe can survive this winter, even if it is painful.
Here in northern Europe, we are now covered and the LNG terminal is ready, and the Baltic has been one of the most exposed gas markets to Russia. If the Russians were to cut the electrical power link then the estimate is that we can detune the network to draw power from the Finnish and Swedish power links and restore service in about five-ten hours, so the emergency App ("Be Prepared") here suggests we all should have sufficient candles just in case. Blankets and sleeping bags at the ready if it gets normally cold. There is confidence that Estonia would not be hit badly, even if the Russians cut everything. In fact, disconnecting the Estonian thermal stations from the Russian grid would probably cause more problems for the Russians since they would lose their peak load capacity.
The UK may have a more fragile infrastructure, but it does have better supplies, so the issues are actually easier in Britain.
Another snap military exercise yesterday, but the outlook is looking a bit better each time. The border is now closed, but there are quite a few Russian exiles that have joined the nearly 55,000 Ukrainian refugees. They are not particularly welcome, the view being that they should fight Putin if they don´t want to fight Ukraine.
I met with some Ukrainians visiting the Baltic Defence College. Tough, Professional. Focused.
The news from Russia is on everyone´s minds, but a further major advance by the UAF seems to be underway. I understand it has been more or less a massacre of newly arrived Russian conscript troops. Poor equipment, zero training, not even useful as cannon fodder.
Russia is taking some serious punishment. Meanwhile in a recent picture with the increasingly porcine Lukashenka in Sochi, Putin looks more like Skeletor.
YouGov’s survey, which was conducted over the weekend, showed that Tory support had fallen by four points to 28 per cent in the aftermath of the budget while Labour’s had risen five points to 45 per cent and the Lib Dems were unchanged on 8 per cent.
A 9 point swing in a week. Keir Starmer is the greatest Labour leader since Blair. Thanks Liz
Samuel Tombs @samueltombs · 4h If mortgage rates rise to 6%—as implied by markets’ current expectations for Bank Rate—the average household refinancing a 2yr fixed rate mortgage in the first half of 2023 will see *monthly* repayments jump to £1,490, from £863. Many simply won’t be able to afford this
I have had difficulty getting a small trolley when I shop at Asda, even from the trolley parks, and I asked the customer service desk and believe or not they source their trolleys from Russia and have had to arrange alternative sources, and expect a supply by the 30th September
Amazing how this war interferes with so much
Crikey - how many do they get through? I recognise old friends at Waitrose, such as mr squeaky wheel…
Apparently a lot are taken off the premises but this has gone on for months
Unfortunately I cannot use the large deep one due to my mobility issues
Only the second most successful England manager ever.
That's thanks to the amazing job the EPL academies have done producing more English talent than in modern times. He has a golden generation of gifted players to choose from.....but then he doesn't pick Champions League and Series A winners in defence, instead a massive slab head who can't even get in a shit Man Utd team and responsible for 2 goals being conceded tonight.
Samuel Tombs @samueltombs · 4h If mortgage rates rise to 6%—as implied by markets’ current expectations for Bank Rate—the average household refinancing a 2yr fixed rate mortgage in the first half of 2023 will see *monthly* repayments jump to £1,490, from £863. Many simply won’t be able to afford this
Samuel Tombs @samueltombs · 4h If mortgage rates rise to 6%—as implied by markets’ current expectations for Bank Rate—the average household refinancing a 2yr fixed rate mortgage in the first half of 2023 will see *monthly* repayments jump to £1,490, from £863. Many simply won’t be able to afford this
YouGov’s survey, which was conducted over the weekend, showed that Tory support had fallen by four points to 28 per cent in the aftermath of the budget while Labour’s had risen five points to 45 per cent and the Lib Dems were unchanged on 8 per cent.
A 9 point swing in a week. Keir Starmer is the greatest Labour leader since Blair. Thanks Liz
I am warmining to Starmer, but I’d reserve that judgement until after the election.
Samuel Tombs @samueltombs · 4h If mortgage rates rise to 6%—as implied by markets’ current expectations for Bank Rate—the average household refinancing a 2yr fixed rate mortgage in the first half of 2023 will see *monthly* repayments jump to £1,490, from £863. Many simply won’t be able to afford this
Are we not getting things a little out of proportion on the global impact of Kwasi's statement? I mean is the UK really so significant that our sneezing will lead to everyone else catching cold.
They must know how we love to have our sense of self importance reinforced?
Labour has surged to its largest poll lead over the Conservatives in more than two decades, with voters turning against Kwasi Kwarteng’s tax-cutting budget. A YouGov poll for The Times today puts Labour 17 points clear of the Tories — a level of support not seen since Tony Blair won his landslide victory in 2001.
The survey revealed widespread public opposition, including among Tory supporters, to the tax-cutting measures announced by the chancellor last week.
Kwarteng’s decision to scrap the 45 per cent rate of tax for those earning more than £150,000 was opposed by 72 per cent of voters including 69 per cent of those who backed the Conservatives in 2019.
The move to lift restrictions on bankers’ bonuses was rejected by 71 per cent of the electorate, including 67 per cent of Tory voters.
Just 9 per cent of voters thought that the measures outlined in the budget would make them better off, while only 15 per cent believed they would achieve the government’s aim of kickstarting economic growth.
Samuel Tombs @samueltombs · 4h If mortgage rates rise to 6%—as implied by markets’ current expectations for Bank Rate—the average household refinancing a 2yr fixed rate mortgage in the first half of 2023 will see *monthly* repayments jump to £1,490, from £863. Many simply won’t be able to afford this
I thought the idea was to borrow what was affordable including potential future rate rises?
I asked this earlier.
Surely we are not back in the world where the lenders don't stress test the finances of the lendee for an interest rate rise of a few %?
Possibly. At my remortgage interviews the Lloyds chap only asked what we could afford to pay and based the term on that. I was fixing up a 10 year fix deal, though.
YouGov’s survey, which was conducted over the weekend, showed that Tory support had fallen by four points to 28 per cent in the aftermath of the budget while Labour’s had risen five points to 45 per cent and the Lib Dems were unchanged on 8 per cent.
A 9 point swing in a week. Keir Starmer is the greatest Labour leader since Blair. Thanks Liz
Poor LDs? Does no one out there want a (generally, as compared to the government) sensible, non-Labour option?
It is so nice to be right once again, to much laughter from many on here as usual
I thought you were betting on con lead sept? Anyway, less of the laughed at me/not laughing now bollocks, it's been clear to everybody but barty for months that lab were in the ascendant. I have been tipping lab maj next ge so much, I have even bored myself.
Labour has surged to its largest poll lead over the Conservatives in more than two decades, with voters turning against Kwasi Kwarteng’s tax-cutting budget. A YouGov poll for The Times today puts Labour 17 points clear of the Tories — a level of support not seen since Tony Blair won his landslide victory in 2001.
The survey revealed widespread public opposition, including among Tory supporters, to the tax-cutting measures announced by the chancellor last week.
Kwarteng’s decision to scrap the 45 per cent rate of tax for those earning more than £150,000 was opposed by 72 per cent of voters including 69 per cent of those who backed the Conservatives in 2019.
The move to lift restrictions on bankers’ bonuses was rejected by 71 per cent of the electorate, including 67 per cent of Tory voters.
Just 9 per cent of voters thought that the measures outlined in the budget would make them better off, while only 15 per cent believed they would achieve the government’s aim of kickstarting economic growth.
Blimey indeed. Extraordinary intervention. A senior US Fed official effectively calling on Truss and Kwarteng to abandon their budget plan to avoid sparking a global crisis. Shades of Suez. https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1574470381733384195
Well they can fuck off
I suggest we ask them to “stop having coups” because they are frightening the horses
US sticking their beak in is the Brexit style wedge she needs. 'Who are the US or anyone else to tell us how to grow our economy?'
Quite right. Who in the hell should tell me not to saw through the gas pipes whilst smoking? Bloody cheek of it.
It is so nice to be right once again, to much laughter from many on here as usual
I thought you were betting on con lead sept? Anyway, less of the laughed at me/not laughing now bollocks, it's been clear to everybody but barty for months that lab were in the ascendant. I have been tipping lab maj next ge so much, I have even bored myself.
I was saying Tory lead in Sept with Opinium but Labour 20 point lead longer term. Not mutually exclusive. I lost my bet.
Samuel Tombs @samueltombs · 4h If mortgage rates rise to 6%—as implied by markets’ current expectations for Bank Rate—the average household refinancing a 2yr fixed rate mortgage in the first half of 2023 will see *monthly* repayments jump to £1,490, from £863. Many simply won’t be able to afford this
Labour has a **17 point** lead over the Tories, Yougov poll for The Times finds
It's the biggest lead since Yougov started polling in 2001
Six in 10 voters think Kwarteng's budget was unfair - the worst rating of any fiscal event since 2010
20 point lead NAILED ON
What point is an existential event for Tories - leaving only ultra safe seats? 25% 23%?
Get down to about 27-28% and it becomes a rout with a three figure Labour majority, even if the SNP execute a near clean sweep. Much below that and you're into extinction level event territory, with the Tories under a hundred seats.
It won't get anything like that bad for them because old people will bail them out.
Labour has surged to its largest poll lead over the Conservatives in more than two decades, with voters turning against Kwasi Kwarteng’s tax-cutting budget. A YouGov poll for The Times today puts Labour 17 points clear of the Tories — a level of support not seen since Tony Blair won his landslide victory in 2001.
The survey revealed widespread public opposition, including among Tory supporters, to the tax-cutting measures announced by the chancellor last week.
Kwarteng’s decision to scrap the 45 per cent rate of tax for those earning more than £150,000 was opposed by 72 per cent of voters including 69 per cent of those who backed the Conservatives in 2019.
The move to lift restrictions on bankers’ bonuses was rejected by 71 per cent of the electorate, including 67 per cent of Tory voters.
Just 9 per cent of voters thought that the measures outlined in the budget would make them better off, while only 15 per cent believed they would achieve the government’s aim of kickstarting economic growth.
YouGov’s survey, which was conducted over the weekend, showed that Tory support had fallen by four points to 28 per cent in the aftermath of the budget while Labour’s had risen five points to 45 per cent and the Lib Dems were unchanged on 8 per cent.
YouGov’s survey, which was conducted over the weekend, showed that Tory support had fallen by four points to 28 per cent in the aftermath of the budget while Labour’s had risen five points to 45 per cent and the Lib Dems were unchanged on 8 per cent.
And, notably, not due to a surge for FarageUK. Straight Labour gains.
Come on Nige. Join in the party!! Start a new vehicle from the right urging more action on migration or a harder brexit or ties for the theatre or something.
YouGov’s survey, which was conducted over the weekend, showed that Tory support had fallen by four points to 28 per cent in the aftermath of the budget while Labour’s had risen five points to 45 per cent and the Lib Dems were unchanged on 8 per cent.
A 9 point swing in a week. Keir Starmer is the greatest Labour leader since Blair. Thanks Liz
Poor LDs? Does no one out there want a (generally, as compared to the government) sensible, non-Labour option?
One should not discount the possibility that the Lib Dems could do reasonably well from tactical voting in the event of a Conservative rout. If the primary objective of your anti-Tory voter is just to burn the Tories rather than specifically to back Labour, then you might well look at the local situation and see who's best placed to do it. I'll be doing just that myself, I suspect.
There is a scenario where Labour get a 200 seat majority.
I think you need to calm down a tad. It’s looking more and more likely that labour will lead the next government, possibly with a majority. But we are still in mid term, with some tricky conditions. Gas prices have fallen significantly. The war may well resolve sooner than expected. And people vote differently in elections to what they said two years before.
There is a scenario where Labour get a 200 seat majority.
I think you need to calm down a tad. It’s looking more and more likely that labour will lead the next government, possibly with a majority. But we are still in mid term, with some tricky conditions. Gas prices have fallen significantly. The war may well resolve sooner than expected. And people vote differently in elections to what they said two years before.
My central forecast is Labour minority Government.
But there is a scenario where Labour get a 200 seat majority
Fair bit of restlessness among Tory MPs who backed Sunak. Last wk some said to me they were impressed by Truss & wanted this policy to work. Apparently today they’re all sharing Sunak’s warnings from campaign about what these tax cuts could mean for sterling & interest rates 1/
One had said on Friday the strategy was “either brilliant or bonkers”. Today they said to me they fear it’s leaning bonkers. 2/
On that poll Truss would lead the Tories to their worst ever voteshare, even lower than the 30% Major got in 1997 and the 29% the Duke of Wellington got in 1832.
Labour has surged to its largest poll lead over the Conservatives in more than two decades, with voters turning against Kwasi Kwarteng’s tax-cutting budget. A YouGov poll for The Times today puts Labour 17 points clear of the Tories — a level of support not seen since Tony Blair won his landslide victory in 2001.
The survey revealed widespread public opposition, including among Tory supporters, to the tax-cutting measures announced by the chancellor last week.
Kwarteng’s decision to scrap the 45 per cent rate of tax for those earning more than £150,000 was opposed by 72 per cent of voters including 69 per cent of those who backed the Conservatives in 2019.
The move to lift restrictions on bankers’ bonuses was rejected by 71 per cent of the electorate, including 67 per cent of Tory voters.
Just 9 per cent of voters thought that the measures outlined in the budget would make them better off, while only 15 per cent believed they would achieve the government’s aim of kickstarting economic growth.
The wost the average got was about C24 L54 in summer 1995, just before "put up or shut up".
The really shocking thing is that Starmer still hasn't done much apart from not be scary. But against this version of the Conservative party, that looks like being more than enough.
On that poll Truss would lead the Tories to their worst ever voteshare, even lower than the 30% Major got in 1997 and the 29% the Duke of Wellington got in 1832.
Pound seems to have stabilised against the dollar and most currencies are struggling against the dollar. Could it be that the land of the right wing coup is actually the reason for a strong dollar, rather than the U.K. government for a weak pound?
Are we not getting things a little out of proportion on the global impact of Kwasi's statement? I mean is the UK really so significant that our sneezing will lead to everyone else catching cold.
They must know how we love to have our sense of self importance reinforced?
It's more of a systemic risk, I think. Despite all the discussion today it's quite a jolt to realise how the UK is being seriously discussed now n that same way aa Italy and Greece were a long timr ago now - a systemic risk to global financial stablity.
Starmer is now the PM-in-waiting and will be for next two years. If they last that long. The media will increasingly treat him as such and it will be almost visible as the power shifts across the landscape and into him and his aides and shadow cabinet.
Fair bit of restlessness among Tory MPs who backed Sunak. Last wk some said to me they were impressed by Truss & wanted this policy to work. Apparently today they’re all sharing Sunak’s warnings from campaign about what these tax cuts could mean for sterling & interest rates 1/
One had said on Friday the strategy was “either brilliant or bonkers”. Today they said to me they fear it’s leaning bonkers. 2/
There is a scenario where Labour get a 200 seat majority.
I think you need to calm down a tad. It’s looking more and more likely that labour will lead the next government, possibly with a majority. But we are still in mid term, with some tricky conditions. Gas prices have fallen significantly. The war may well resolve sooner than expected. And people vote differently in elections to what they said two years before.
My central forecast is Labour minority Government.
But there is a scenario where Labour get a 200 seat majority
There is also a scenario where the Tories increase their majority. Two years in, the Truss gamble is seen as a game changing success. The U.K. economy is growing strongly, while the EU stagnates. The war in Ukraine ended in late 2022 with Putin being removed from office in a 1989 style revolution and Truss was the first to visit Kiev to receive the medal. Englands World Cup wins (Mens Football in 2022, womens rugby the same) led to a huge popular upsurge of national confidence, even in Wales, who lost the WC final to England. Etc
Labour are starting to look like the real thing. Just keep Angela Rayner away from the cameras until after the election and we could be into a '97 type victory.
Truss and Kwarteng.....Starmer must be pinching himself.
In a few days we should be getting a break from the tanking pound and soaring gilts as, in descending order of likelihood, at least one of the following happens:
And, notably, not due to a surge for FarageUK. Straight Labour gains.
It’s a conference poll, so ignore it.
But, on your wider point, there were sources in the papers at the weekend saying that what is different now is that Labour are winning direct switchers from the Tories (rather than grinding out leads via attrition from the minor parties)
There is a scenario where Labour get a 200 seat majority.
I think you need to calm down a tad. It’s looking more and more likely that labour will lead the next government, possibly with a majority. But we are still in mid term, with some tricky conditions. Gas prices have fallen significantly. The war may well resolve sooner than expected. And people vote differently in elections to what they said two years before.
My central forecast is Labour minority Government.
But there is a scenario where Labour get a 200 seat majority
There is also a scenario where the Tories increase their majority. Two years in, the Truss gamble is seen as a game changing success. The U.K. economy is growing strongly, while the EU stagnates. The war in Ukraine ended in late 2022 with Putin being removed from office in a 1989 style revolution and Truss was the first to visit Kiev to receive the medal. Englands World Cup wins (Mens Football in 2022, womens rugby the same) led to a huge popular upsurge of national confidence, even in Wales, who lost the WC final to England. Etc
Well I think I'm fucked. Had an offer on my first ever house accepted on Friday, just trying to get everything sorted/the ball rolling and I have an appointment with my Mortgage advisor on Wednesday. Was looking for a fixed rate for 5 years and it sounds like all the major lenders Halifax etc are pulling their products.
Going into the meeting on Wednesday with a completely different mindset now and expectation that they will tell me news which means I cannot proceed any further.
I feel completely beaten.
Fixed rates will be back - just more expensive
It sucks.
But you should rerun the calculations on what you can afford with the new rates and then go back to the seller and ask them to share the pain (by cutting their price).
You run the risk they say “no” but I suspect they are scared too. In any event, this isn’t the time to over extend yourself
Good luck!
PM me if you want
That calculation will be repeated in transactions across the land - lower affordability of mortgage payments means lower house prices.
Lower house prices means unhappy pensioners / boomers / other rich people who have enjoyed the extraordinary boom in house prices over the last two decades or so.
Assuming asset-rich homeowners disproportionately vote Conservative, how will they feel about the value of their primary asset tanking? How will they vote?
There's a reason the Conservatives have done so much over the last decade to keep the house price ponzi going, from stamp duty relief to "help" to buy (really help to inflate prices).
Looks like the party is over, there is going to be one hell of a hangover.
The value of your primary residence is the utility you get from living it. The price doesn’t matter until you sell
Comments
Tories 28
THINGS CAN ONLY GET BETTER
It's those oysters that does it.
The UK may have a more fragile infrastructure, but it does have better supplies, so the issues are actually easier in Britain.
Another snap military exercise yesterday, but the outlook is looking a bit better each time. The border is now closed, but there are quite a few Russian exiles that have joined the nearly 55,000 Ukrainian refugees. They are not particularly welcome, the view being that they should fight Putin if they don´t want to fight Ukraine.
I met with some Ukrainians visiting the Baltic Defence College. Tough, Professional. Focused.
The news from Russia is on everyone´s minds, but a further major advance by the UAF seems to be underway. I understand it has been more or less a massacre of newly arrived Russian conscript troops. Poor equipment, zero training, not even useful as cannon fodder.
Russia is taking some serious punishment. Meanwhile in a recent picture with the increasingly porcine Lukashenka in Sochi, Putin looks more like Skeletor.
A 9 point swing in a week. Keir Starmer is the greatest Labour leader since Blair. Thanks Liz
Unfortunately I cannot use the large deep one due to my mobility issues
Not much longer now.
Oh no that's the inflation rate 😈👿
Well we all know it doesn't rest there but its the only people Kami Kwazi can plausibly point at and blame...
Surely we are not back in the world where the lenders don't stress test the finances of the lendee for an interest rate rise of a few %?
https://cunningtons.co.uk/mortgage-stress-test-ends/#:~:text=The Bank of England decided,over the last few years.
They must know how we love to have our sense of self importance reinforced?
The survey revealed widespread public opposition, including among Tory supporters, to the tax-cutting measures announced by the chancellor last week.
Kwarteng’s decision to scrap the 45 per cent rate of tax for those earning more than £150,000 was opposed by 72 per cent of voters including 69 per cent of those who backed the Conservatives in 2019.
The move to lift restrictions on bankers’ bonuses was rejected by 71 per cent of the electorate, including 67 per cent of Tory voters.
Just 9 per cent of voters thought that the measures outlined in the budget would make them better off, while only 15 per cent believed they would achieve the government’s aim of kickstarting economic growth.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/5b0f28de-3dd5-11ed-b24d-96120f17513d
So now I ask, what about the Tories? Perhaps now they will split.
It's Liz causing this
That's a lot of people assuming they are far richer than in fact they are.
We just brought a match to the proceedings.
It's because the EU is sabotaging the UK as punishment over the NI Protoco. That's them too.
It won't get anything like that bad for them because old people will bail them out.
I do not know what happens next but conservative mps need to take action to sack Kwarteng and obviously Truss is in real trouble
“Truss’s Economic Plan Isn’t the Disaster Everyone Says It Is”
https://archive.ph/6o2zz
https://twitter.com/Sime0nStylites/status/1574500151997222912
Going to be a very very long two years
Gas prices have fallen significantly. The war may well resolve sooner than expected. And people vote differently in elections to what they said two years before.
But there is a scenario where Labour get a 200 seat majority
One had said on Friday the strategy was “either brilliant or bonkers”. Today they said to me they fear it’s leaning bonkers. 2/
https://twitter.com/AnushkaAsthana/status/1574501696063127584
Looks like removing Boris was an own goal
This must be one of the biggest political own goals of all time .
(To modern eyes, the scatter on the graph at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_1997_United_Kingdom_general_election looks huge)
The wost the average got was about C24 L54 in summer 1995, just before "put up or shut up".
The really shocking thing is that Starmer still hasn't done much apart from not be scary. But against this version of the Conservative party, that looks like being more than enough.
NEW THREAD
Still. The bloody front of pointing it out.
Putin's Russia is a safer investment than Trussonomics
I shouldn't think many Greens are fans of fracking, and scrapping protections for wildlife.
The Lab lead is probably underestimated.
16!!! You are having a laff aren't you. 160 would be closer.
Starmer is now the PM-in-waiting and will be for next two years. If they last that long. The media will increasingly treat him as such and it will be almost visible as the power shifts across the landscape and into him and his aides and shadow cabinet.
Etc
Truss and Kwarteng.....Starmer must be pinching himself.
https://twitter.com/carlbildt/status/1574429570849284099
“They shouldn’t be upsetting people…
…something needs to be done about it…
should we shoot them ?”
But, on your wider point, there were sources in the papers at the weekend saying that what is different now is that Labour are winning direct switchers from the Tories (rather than grinding out leads via attrition from the minor parties)