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Worrying poll findings for Truss from YouGov and R&K – politicalbetting.com

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  • Is this the worst Tory Government in history?

    I'm a lifelong Tory and I want the Tories to be utterly gubbed at the next election, that's how bad they are.
  • rcs1000 said:

    There is a lot of quibbling with @darkage's numbers, but I'm afraid he is broadly correct.

    The reality is that the cost of inputs like bricks and glass have gone through the roof - mostly because energy makes up a very high proportion of their cost of manufacture.

    But let me give you a US example. Bank of America says the average cost for materials to build a single-family home jumped 42% from 2018 to 2021. And it will likely have only got worse in 2022.

    With that said: it's worth remembering that house price building costs can go down as well as up. In the event of a house price correction, those materials would likely become cheaper too.

    They went through the roof because of the US covid stimulus.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,404
    edited September 2022
    Apologies. I am not an expert in the slightest. Although my Dad was a brickie...
    How come newbuilds round here are still in five figures?
    Is that merely a question of size?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,404
    2-0.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Is this the worst Tory Government in history?

    Never forget the glory of the cones hotline, Major smashing Edwina Curry, and the sleaziest of sleazy administrations.
    Major/Curry?

    You do realise that we have for literally the first time in history a government where the PM has been buggered by the chancellor?

    And, yes, I know what literally means.
  • rcs1000 said:

    We really, really need a mild winter...


    OECD Economics
    @OECDeconomy
    In the 🇪🇺, gas supply #disruptions from reduced Russian flows risk hitting the #economy hard.

    In case of a cold winter & without alternative sources, European #gas storage levels will fall dangerously low – below 30%.

    Sizeable gas demand reduction measures are needed.

    https://twitter.com/OECDeconomy/status/1574372249272217601


    Actually, those numbers are about as good as you would hope. Europe can survive this winter, even if it is painful.
    Hard to believe europe wont manage at least a 10% reduction given the prices and all the talk of shortages, never mind actual government driven measures on public buildings etc.

    I'd like to see what maybe 15% reduction AND a cold winter does though.

  • Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    darkage said:

    Anyone who thinks that there is a forthcoming house price crash needs to answer the 'build cost problem' that I keep repeating, because no one has ever come back to me with any meaningful response.

    The cost of building a house is about £2500 per square metre, so a small family home (100sqm) costs £250,000 just to build, because of rapid recent inflation in the cost of materials and labour, and recent expensive regulation.

    A house price crash at the levels people envisage will lead to a shutdown of the third biggest industry in the UK (the real estate and development industry). No new build can ever happen because the cheapest these houses can be built and sold for (about £300k) cannot work for buyers. Even if you have a 75k deposit, the cost of servicing the debt on a £225k mortgage is about £15,750 per year (at 7%)- or £24750 if you are in a 25 year repayment mortgage. That is over £2k per month just in mortgage repayments before any other expenses - so double what they might be paying now with rates at 2%.

    This means that very little or no housebuilding will take place because housing is unaffordable for people on average incomes, but demand will keep rising anyway due to immigration and new household formation. So rents associated with the existing housing stock will will just increase, and the housing market will be driven by investors exploiting this for good, stable returns.

    It is not much to celebrate, just a catastrophe. @pigeon @kyf_100

    No way big builders are spending £250k building a identikit house on a new estate.
    I have a copy of "Build It" magazine with me, and their calculator has the following as build cot per SqM:

    2 bed bungalow (90 SqM £165,700) at £1841 per SqM

    3 bed house (160 SqM £223,100) at £1,393 per SqM

    4 bed House (200SqM £266, 600) at £1,333 per SqM

    These prices are before land and other costs, such as section 106 requirements etc.

    I think @darkage is in the right ball park on costs. House building is a highly geared business, but that gearing works the other way in a sinking market.
    Those are prices for single bespoke houses though.
    Materials/labour/plant/scaffolding etc. For a straightforward design of standard quality. Before architects and site managers costs.
    And there are economies of scale once you start building multiple ones on the same site.
  • England 2 down

    Time for the manager to be sacked
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,332
    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    Maguire hopeless again but so predictable

    He is not fit to wear United or England's shirts

    I despise Southgate so much I’m not sure I can be arsed to watch the World Cup
    He's not doing a great job at the mo, but "despise"?
    Yes. Something about his earnest workmanlike decent-bloke waistcoaty dull dull dull persona just fucks me off. And no it’s not just the Knee and the Woke

    There are plenty of super Woke people I find perfectly likeable

    It’s probably, in the main, anger. I think he was given the best possible chance to win a major trophy - it was basically given to him at the Euros. At home. Feeble oppo. And he fucked it up because he’s a narrow minded mediocrity of a defensive loser, and always will be, and he blew it. Twat

    England should sack him tomorrow and gamble on a wildcard coach



  • pm215pm215 Posts: 1,134
    Carnyx said:

    But there is something to be said for GNER/LNER and their First Class - which has meals and refreshments included.

    Especially if you can get it at a reasonable price via an advance-purchase ticket...
  • Is this the worst Tory Government in history?

    I'm a lifelong Tory and I want the Tories to be utterly gubbed at the next election, that's how bad they are.
    Is that D:REAM I hear?

    THINGS...
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,220
    edited September 2022
    PeterM said:

    ..

    20 point lead in the next two months.

    I can't see the Conservatives recovering that much in this Parliament.
    funny how its almost exactly 30 years since erm debacle...history does rhyme
    First time as tragedy, second time as farce.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,876
    pm215 said:

    stodge said:


    Just to muse on the train journey from London to Cornwall it did use to be something special when they had a proper dining car. In First Class, they would ask which sitting you wanted - two sittings, one for those getting off at Exeter and they'd offer second sitting for those travelling further down (I was going to St Erth).

    They do still do proper at-seat three-course meals in a kind of half-dining car, if you pick the right train: https://www.gwr.com/travelling-with-us/pullman-dining -- I did that last year on my way back from a holiday in Cornwall.
    Yes but it's not what it was on the old 125s with a full dining car. It's also a much more limited service whereas in the old days you'd get dining on the Royal Duchy, the Golden Hind and of course the Cornish Riviera.

    I do hear good things about the Night Sleeper - train down and breakfast overlooking the sea in St Ives has a lot going for it.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Even without the Bank of England pushing up rates today, it seems likely that the standard rate on new mortgages and refinanced mortgages will be 5% by next week. This will have a big negative effect on the volume of housing market transactions and the value of houses, which...

    in turn will have a significant negative impact on the economy and our general prosperity. In other words, it is the market that is already putting the brakes on the stimulus announced on Friday by the Chancellor, even without action by Bank of England - because markets are...

    setting interest rates on the basis of where they assume the Bank of England will set its benchmark Bank Rate in coming weeks (the next rate setting meeting isn't till 3 November). This is one of the worst backdrops I can imagine for next week's Tory conference, the first...

    to be addressed by Liz Truss as prime minister and Kwasi Kwarteng as chancellor. Both of them are supremely confident, but this mess would test anyone


    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1574486885145026560
  • Who gets sacked first, Gareth Waistcoat or Fizzy Lizzy?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,397

    We really, really need a mild winter...


    OECD Economics
    @OECDeconomy
    In the 🇪🇺, gas supply #disruptions from reduced Russian flows risk hitting the #economy hard.

    In case of a cold winter & without alternative sources, European #gas storage levels will fall dangerously low – below 30%.

    Sizeable gas demand reduction measures are needed.

    https://twitter.com/OECDeconomy/status/1574372249272217601


    Looks like it will be cold, unfortunately.

    At least the long range forecasts are showing more rain than they were before, which may bring wind with it and top up our sorely depleted water sources.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    Our finishing is awful
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    Maguire hopeless again but so predictable

    He is not fit to wear United or England's shirts

    I despise Southgate so much I’m not sure I can be arsed to watch the World Cup
    He's not doing a great job at the mo, but "despise"?
    Yes. Something about his earnest workmanlike decent-bloke waistcoaty dull dull dull persona just fucks me off. And no it’s not just the Knee and the Woke

    There are plenty of super Woke people I find perfectly likeable

    It’s probably, in the main, anger. I think he was given the best possible chance to win a major trophy - it was basically given to him at the Euros. At home. Feeble oppo. And he fucked it up because he’s a narrow minded mediocrity of a defensive loser, and always will be, and he blew it. Twat

    England should sack him tomorrow and gamble on a wildcard coach
    For me, it's the waistcoats. Without them he would be in the dreary arse category, but they propel him to utter c--t status.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,659
    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    Maguire hopeless again but so predictable

    He is not fit to wear United or England's shirts

    I despise Southgate so much I’m not sure I can be arsed to watch the World Cup
    He's not doing a great job at the mo, but "despise"?
    Yes. Something about his earnest workmanlike decent-bloke waistcoaty dull dull dull persona just fucks me off. And no it’s not just the Knee and the Woke

    There are plenty of super Woke people I find perfectly likeable

    It’s probably, in the main, anger. I think he was given the best possible chance to win a major trophy - it was basically given to him at the Euros. At home. Feeble oppo. And he fucked it up because he’s a narrow minded mediocrity of a defensive loser, and always will be, and he blew it. Twat

    England should sack him tomorrow and gamble on a wildcard coach
    What England needs is Brendan Rodgers 🤣🤣🤣

  • Who gets sacked first, Gareth Waistcoat or Fizzy Lizzy?

    Waistcoat.

    After we lose to Iran and Wales.
  • Scott_xP said:

    Even without the Bank of England pushing up rates today, it seems likely that the standard rate on new mortgages and refinanced mortgages will be 5% by next week. This will have a big negative effect on the volume of housing market transactions and the value of houses, which...

    in turn will have a significant negative impact on the economy and our general prosperity. In other words, it is the market that is already putting the brakes on the stimulus announced on Friday by the Chancellor, even without action by Bank of England - because markets are...

    setting interest rates on the basis of where they assume the Bank of England will set its benchmark Bank Rate in coming weeks (the next rate setting meeting isn't till 3 November). This is one of the worst backdrops I can imagine for next week's Tory conference, the first...

    to be addressed by Liz Truss as prime minister and Kwasi Kwarteng as chancellor. Both of them are supremely confident, but this mess would test anyone


    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1574486885145026560

    I'm guessing they have blocked Sunak from speaking?

    He should book a local hotel conference room and do his "I told you fucking so" speech.

  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405
    IshmaelZ said:

    Is this the worst Tory Government in history?

    Never forget the glory of the cones hotline, Major smashing Edwina Curry, and the sleaziest of sleazy administrations.
    Major/Curry?

    You do realise that we have for literally the first time in history a government where the PM has been buggered by the chancellor?

    And, yes, I know what literally means.
    Seems rather specific knowledge of what they got up to…
  • PeterMPeterM Posts: 302
    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    Maguire hopeless again but so predictable

    He is not fit to wear United or England's shirts

    I despise Southgate so much I’m not sure I can be arsed to watch the World Cup
    He's not doing a great job at the mo, but "despise"?
    theres no buzz about the world cup is there. Its only 2 months away but noone seems enthused. Maybe there are such big things happening in the world football doesnt seem so important
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,876
    Carnyx said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    Just to muse on the train journey from London to Cornwall it did use to be something special when they had a proper dining car. In First Class, they would ask which sitting you wanted - two sittings, one for those getting off at Exeter and they'd offer second sitting for those travelling further down (I was going to St Erth).

    I'll confess - you didn't eat on that train for the food but for the views which were, especially past Exeter, stunning.

    The modern trains are comfortable enough and tailor to the current age - if you have your laptop, phone or tablet you can ride in comfort but it's not the same...

    To be fair, the at-seat service, if you get on the right train, starts in the far west of Cornwall and you can enjoy it all for nothing right up to Reading.

    Memories of KX to/from Edinburgh in the late 1960s. Proper stuff, Deltics and kitchen cars, and silver service in the dining car while galloping up Lincolnshire and Yorkshire. But there is something to be said for GNER/LNER and their First Class - which has meals and refreshments included.
    I once had breakfast on a train going to Sheffield - late 70s or early 80s. I was amazed how the stewards (not waiters) kept their feet and the coffee (mostly) in the cups.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    darkage said:

    Anyone who thinks that there is a forthcoming house price crash needs to answer the 'build cost problem' that I keep repeating, because no one has ever come back to me with any meaningful response.

    The cost of building a house is about £2500 per square metre, so a small family home (100sqm) costs £250,000 just to build, because of rapid recent inflation in the cost of materials and labour, and recent expensive regulation.

    A house price crash at the levels people envisage will lead to a shutdown of the third biggest industry in the UK (the real estate and development industry). No new build can ever happen because the cheapest these houses can be built and sold for (about £300k) cannot work for buyers. Even if you have a 75k deposit, the cost of servicing the debt on a £225k mortgage is about £15,750 per year (at 7%)- or £24750 if you are in a 25 year repayment mortgage. That is over £2k per month just in mortgage repayments before any other expenses - so double what they might be paying now with rates at 2%.

    This means that very little or no housebuilding will take place because housing is unaffordable for people on average incomes, but demand will keep rising anyway due to immigration and new household formation. So rents associated with the existing housing stock will will just increase, and the housing market will be driven by investors exploiting this for good, stable returns.

    It is not much to celebrate, just a catastrophe. @pigeon @kyf_100

    No way big builders are spending £250k building a identikit house on a new estate.
    I have a copy of "Build It" magazine with me, and their calculator has the following as build cot per SqM:

    2 bed bungalow (90 SqM £165,700) at £1841 per SqM

    3 bed house (160 SqM £223,100) at £1,393 per SqM

    4 bed House (200SqM £266, 600) at £1,333 per SqM

    These prices are before land and other costs, such as section 106 requirements etc.

    I think @darkage is in the right ball park on costs. House building is a highly geared business, but that gearing works the other way in a sinking market.
    Those are prices for single bespoke houses though.
    Materials/labour/plant/scaffolding etc. For a straightforward design of standard quality. Before architects and site managers costs.
    Yes you can run the calculations on the Build it online calculator. But actually the ones reported by surveyors are regarded as being more accurate, but you can't access them without paying a subscription; they generally come out around the £2k sqm mark in the south east, as I understand it.

    The figures also assume that a serviced plot exists with roads, utility connections etc all in place - but obviously all that costs extra money, not to mention the land itself.


  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    Every shot on target we’ve had has been weak and straight at the keeper
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,486
    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    Maguire hopeless again but so predictable

    He is not fit to wear United or England's shirts

    I despise Southgate so much I’m not sure I can be arsed to watch the World Cup
    He's not doing a great job at the mo, but "despise"?
    He would probably get more sympathy if he hadn’t given it all the “I will pick players on form not the clubs they play for and who they are” crap. Luke Shaw….. Harry McGuire - the monster they left out of “Where the wild things are” because no monster is that clumsy so kids would never believe.

    He could have a back three of James/Walker, Stones and Dier/Coady with wingers of trippier and Trent creating things for Kane and Toney up front whilst Rice holds and allows Foden and Belingham to run the midfield ragged or create but he is clueless.

    Solid defensive middle, wingers/defenders for their clubs who are creative but also have defending skills, a dynamic young fast midfield who can block it out and Kane can stop playing “quarterback” and have a man up front to play off like Shearer and Sutton/Sheringham.
  • Is this the worst Tory Government in history?

    I'm a lifelong Tory and I want the Tories to be utterly gubbed at the next election, that's how bad they are.
    Is that D:REAM I hear?

    THINGS...
    CAN......
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,397
    IshmaelZ said:

    Is this the worst Tory Government in history?

    Never forget the glory of the cones hotline, Major smashing Edwina Curry, and the sleaziest of sleazy administrations.
    Major/Curry?

    You do realise that we have for literally the first time in history a government where the PM has been buggered by the chancellor?

    And, yes, I know what literally means.
    Just a warm up act. He screwed 67 million people at once with that budget.

    Even Tiger Woods isn't that energetic.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,906
    Leon said:

    Maguire hopeless again but so predictable

    He is not fit to wear United or England's shirts

    I despise Southgate so much I’m not sure I can be arsed to watch the World Cup
    I really don't like the World Cup being in Qatar, so getting knocked out early would suit me, as then I won't be torn about paying attention to it.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    Lol!
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,404
    2-1.
    It's hardly a self-inflicted run on the pound.
  • glw said:

    Leon said:

    Maguire hopeless again but so predictable

    He is not fit to wear United or England's shirts

    I despise Southgate so much I’m not sure I can be arsed to watch the World Cup
    I really don't like the World Cup being in Qatar, so getting knocked out early would suit me, as then I won't be torn about paying attention to it.
    I don't want to be in the pub three days before xmas watching world cup footy. Fecking stupid idea.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    IshmaelZ said:

    Is this the worst Tory Government in history?

    Never forget the glory of the cones hotline, Major smashing Edwina Curry, and the sleaziest of sleazy administrations.
    Major/Curry?

    You do realise that we have for literally the first time in history a government where the PM has been buggered by the chancellor?

    And, yes, I know what literally means.
    Seems rather specific knowledge of what they got up to…
    Nope. Open secret.

    bonus tip: she prefers it unlubed.
  • Every shot on target we’ve had has been weak and straight at the keeper

    Exactly but Shaw just scored that way surprisingly
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,705

    Who gets sacked first, Gareth Waistcoat or Fizzy Lizzy?

    Job swap. Southgate becomes PM and Truss becomes England manager. Things largely stay the same.
  • pm215pm215 Posts: 1,134
    stodge said:

    pm215 said:

    They do still do proper at-seat three-course meals in a kind of half-dining car, if you pick the right train: https://www.gwr.com/travelling-with-us/pullman-dining -- I did that last year on my way back from a holiday in Cornwall.

    Yes but it's not what it was on the old 125s with a full dining car. It's also a much more limited service whereas in the old days you'd get dining on the Royal Duchy, the Golden Hind and of course the Cornish Riviera.

    I do hear good things about the Night Sleeper - train down and breakfast overlooking the sea in St Ives has a lot going for it.
    The Night Sleeper was what I did on the way *to* that Cornish holiday :-) And yes, I thought it was pretty good. For me the romantic idea of sleeper train travel usually wins out over the practical fact that I have difficulty getting to sleep on one, when I'm planning travel...
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405
    That’s a goal.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,404
    Southgate for PM!
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370
    dixiedean said:

    Apologies. I am not an expert in the slightest. Although my Dad was a brickie...
    How come newbuilds round here are still in five figures?
    Is that merely a question of size?

    size, economies of scale and the minimal cost of London...
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    Great substitutions by Southgate
  • TresTres Posts: 2,696

    England 2 down

    Time for the manager to be sacked

    LOL
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,397
    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Is this the worst Tory Government in history?

    Never forget the glory of the cones hotline, Major smashing Edwina Curry, and the sleaziest of sleazy administrations.
    Major/Curry?

    You do realise that we have for literally the first time in history a government where the PM has been buggered by the chancellor?

    And, yes, I know what literally means.
    Seems rather specific knowledge of what they got up to…
    Nope. Open secret.

    bonus tip: she prefers it unlubed.
    Never heard it called that before.
  • Never in doubt.....
  • There's nothing more likely to get me out canvassing for the Tories again than the prospect of hearing that bloody D:Ream song again.
  • stodge said:

    Carnyx said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    Just to muse on the train journey from London to Cornwall it did use to be something special when they had a proper dining car. In First Class, they would ask which sitting you wanted - two sittings, one for those getting off at Exeter and they'd offer second sitting for those travelling further down (I was going to St Erth).

    I'll confess - you didn't eat on that train for the food but for the views which were, especially past Exeter, stunning.

    The modern trains are comfortable enough and tailor to the current age - if you have your laptop, phone or tablet you can ride in comfort but it's not the same...

    To be fair, the at-seat service, if you get on the right train, starts in the far west of Cornwall and you can enjoy it all for nothing right up to Reading.

    Memories of KX to/from Edinburgh in the late 1960s. Proper stuff, Deltics and kitchen cars, and silver service in the dining car while galloping up Lincolnshire and Yorkshire. But there is something to be said for GNER/LNER and their First Class - which has meals and refreshments included.
    I once had breakfast on a train going to Sheffield - late 70s or early 80s. I was amazed how the stewards (not waiters) kept their feet and the coffee (mostly) in the cups.
    I used to have breakfast regularly on the train from Colwyn Bay to Euston and dinner on the way back with wine and it was first class service and made the journey a pleasure
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Blimey indeed. Extraordinary intervention. A senior US Fed official effectively calling on Truss and Kwarteng to abandon their budget plan to avoid sparking a global crisis. Shades of Suez. https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1574470381733384195
  • IshmaelZ said:

    Is this the worst Tory Government in history?

    Never forget the glory of the cones hotline, Major smashing Edwina Curry, and the sleaziest of sleazy administrations.
    Major/Curry?

    You do realise that we have for literally the first time in history a government where the PM has been buggered by the chancellor?

    And, yes, I know what literally means.
    Given Edwina’s cheerleading for pegging perhaps we’ve already had an approximate vicey versy.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    glw said:

    Leon said:

    Maguire hopeless again but so predictable

    He is not fit to wear United or England's shirts

    I despise Southgate so much I’m not sure I can be arsed to watch the World Cup
    I really don't like the World Cup being in Qatar, so getting knocked out early would suit me, as then I won't be torn about paying attention to it.
    I don't want to be in the pub three days before xmas watching world cup footy. Fecking stupid idea.
    Nobody wants to be trying to celebrate christmas dos with football wankers pricking about screaming like spanners
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,332
    Always loved a natty waistcoat on a man
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,497
    stodge said:

    A fascinating day politically - Rachel Reeves gave what I thought was a reasonable considered speech at the Labour Conference. I was slightly puzzled on one aspect - if you're going to condemn Truss and Kwarteng for irresponsible borrowing, fine but if you're still going to borrow the same and just spend it on something different (nurses) to what extent is that any more responsible?

    I would have liked Reeves to have said more about reducing borrowing and thereby the deficit. That would give her more credibility on spending - it now seems expected Kwarteng is going for a savage round next year. Given current inflation, a freeze on current spending levels will be a near 10% real terms cut.

    Unfortunately, if Labour choose to oppose the spending plans, they'll have to explain themselves how to square the borrowing circle. Reeves spoke of a windfall tax from energy companies - that will be popular of course though I have my doubts. Even so, to what extent would it plug a £45 billion gap?

    The abolition of the NI levy has left a £12 billion funding gap for the provision of care for vulnerable adults and children. Put that on top of a severely tight spending round and you may see any number of authorities heading down the Section 114 route.

    It's not 1980 - we don't have North Sea Oil or privatisation receipts to help fund the supply side revolution. We are also tight on labour capacity - how will the new growth be achieved if we can't fill the shortages of workers irrespective of how much fruit is in the shops?

    A bit surprisingly I don't find Rachel Reeves particularly impressive, Though I would like to. Generally CoEs and wannabes sound as if they actually understand what they are talking about, and sound as if they understand all sorts of complicated stuff as well as being able to simplify it for the plebs. Clarke, Lawson, Gordon Brown (supreme at this), Howe in his sheepish prime, Darling (a fabulous politician, much under rated), Healey.

    All of course met their various Waterloos - that's politics.

    Bur Reeves doesn't sound as if she understands a word of it, and doesn't sound as if she is as clever as clever but good at talking to the rabble as well. I think it's a weak point in Labour's armour.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,332
    Scott_xP said:

    Blimey indeed. Extraordinary intervention. A senior US Fed official effectively calling on Truss and Kwarteng to abandon their budget plan to avoid sparking a global crisis. Shades of Suez. https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1574470381733384195

    Well they can fuck off

    I suggest we ask them to “stop having coups” because they are frightening the horses
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,652
    pigeon said:

    EPG said:

    pigeon said:

    darkage said:

    Anyone who thinks that there is a forthcoming house price crash needs to answer the 'build cost problem' that I keep repeating, because no one has ever come back to me with any meaningful response.

    The cost of building a house is about £2500 per square metre, so a small family home (100sqm) costs £250,000 just to build, because of rapid recent inflation in the cost of materials and labour, and recent expensive regulation.

    A house price crash at the levels people envisage will lead to a shutdown of the third biggest industry in the UK (the real estate and development industry). No new build can ever happen because the cheapest these houses can be built and sold for (about £300k) cannot work for buyers. Even if you have a 75k deposit, the cost of servicing the debt on a £225k mortgage is about £15,750 per year (at 7%)- or £24750 if you are in a 25 year repayment mortgage. That is over £2k per month just in mortgage repayments before any other expenses - so double what they might be paying now with rates at 2%.

    This means that very little or no housebuilding will take place because housing is unaffordable for people on average incomes, but demand will keep rising anyway due to immigration and new household formation. So rents associated with the existing housing stock will will just increase, and the housing market will be driven by investors exploiting this for good, stable returns.

    It is not much to celebrate, just a catastrophe. @pigeon @kyf_100

    First time buyers make up a fraction of buyers. New-build homes make up a fraction of sales. You can still have a functioning market in which new-build homes are aspirational and out of the reach of most first time buyers.

    If this kind of market doesn't work for the type of housebuilders (and land bankers) who build the kind of estates that generate opposition to building, then maybe we would be better off with fewer of them, and we could have a more continental market structure.
    And it's at this stage that we should remind ourselves of how loose building regs have become and how shite many new build homes therefore are. Tiny little poky boxes full of tiny little poky rooms that people only think of buying because they're so desperate to escape the rental trap.

    Council houses. Fucktons of em. Built to decent standards. If the state invests in enough good homes it'll put a lid on house prices, liberate chunks of people's incomes from being wasted on vastly overinflated rents and mortgages, and therefore pay for itself through investment and consumption in the remainder of the economy.

    Ridiculous house prices are the great disease of the British economy, social rentals are the cure. Labour should snap to it.
    There's already Birmingham if that model worked, but it appears people instead prefer to compete to live in desirable areas.
    The entire point is that a large fraction of the populace can't "compete to live in desirable areas." They can barely afford to live full stop.

    Besides which, much post-war public housing is desirable. Yes, some of it is in grotty tower blocks and sink estates, but well-constructed, low rise, spacious Sixties apartments, for example, often retail for a bloody fortune.

    The aim of housing policy should be to prioritise quality, security and affordability of good homes over their commoditisation. Let us have an end to the attitude that all houses must be an investment designed to make their owners rich at everyone else's expense.

    If there were sufficient, decent quality, affordable housing to go around then of course people who really wanted to live in swanky abodes - old manor houses in Oxfordshire, chocolate box cottages in Dorset, pieds-a-terre in Belgravia - could still "compete" for the privilege. It would just absolve the rest of us of having to waste our lives on this needless treadmill if we didn't want to. Decent, run-of-the-mill homes should be available to people at decent, run-of-the-mill prices, and not feel like unobtainable luxuries.
    By and large, people who can "barely afford to live" are provided subsidised housing by the state or charities. Market housing costs affect people who can, in fact, afford to live; having done so, they devote much of their remaining income to the housing amenity from which they benefit every day of their lives, thereby competing with each other for it, and settling at a point where they can afford an acceptable balance of housing and everything else. I'm sure you can make new build standards very good and sell cheap if you tax other people enough for the subsidy, but once it comes to market again, it will cost whatever workers want to pay for it.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    edited September 2022
    Scott_xP said:

    Blimey indeed. Extraordinary intervention. A senior US Fed official effectively calling on Truss and Kwarteng to abandon their budget plan to avoid sparking a global crisis. Shades of Suez. https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1574470381733384195

    Probably useful for Trussteng, being told to fall into line and do as we are told by globalists will get some backs up
  • glwglw Posts: 9,906

    glw said:

    Leon said:

    Maguire hopeless again but so predictable

    He is not fit to wear United or England's shirts

    I despise Southgate so much I’m not sure I can be arsed to watch the World Cup
    I really don't like the World Cup being in Qatar, so getting knocked out early would suit me, as then I won't be torn about paying attention to it.
    I don't want to be in the pub three days before xmas watching world cup footy. Fecking stupid idea.
    Blatant corruption, sportswashing, and making mockery of all the values footballers and teams claim to stand for nowadays. And at a bloody stupid time of the season as you righly say. I'd love to see England win a world cup, but I'd hate it to be in Qatar.
  • glw said:

    Leon said:

    Maguire hopeless again but so predictable

    He is not fit to wear United or England's shirts

    I despise Southgate so much I’m not sure I can be arsed to watch the World Cup
    I really don't like the World Cup being in Qatar, so getting knocked out early would suit me, as then I won't be torn about paying attention to it.
    I don't want to be in the pub three days before xmas watching world cup footy. Fecking stupid idea.
    Nobody wants to be trying to celebrate christmas dos with football wankers pricking about screaming like spanners
    Disaster for pubs in sense that a summer world cup gives them a massive three week bonus in early summer.

    Now it will be lost in the usual xmas boost.

    Or maybe not this year as everyone stays at home around a candle and nibbles on dried rat.
  • THINGS CAN ONLY GET BETTER
  • 2024 remix I reckon. Time to get Labour back in.
  • Scott_xP said:

    Blimey indeed. Extraordinary intervention. A senior US Fed official effectively calling on Truss and Kwarteng to abandon their budget plan to avoid sparking a global crisis. Shades of Suez. https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1574470381733384195

    Ka - fecking - boom!

  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,486

    glw said:

    Leon said:

    Maguire hopeless again but so predictable

    He is not fit to wear United or England's shirts

    I despise Southgate so much I’m not sure I can be arsed to watch the World Cup
    I really don't like the World Cup being in Qatar, so getting knocked out early would suit me, as then I won't be torn about paying attention to it.
    I don't want to be in the pub three days before xmas watching world cup footy. Fecking stupid idea.
    Nobody wants to be trying to celebrate christmas dos with football wankers pricking about screaming like
    spanners
    Although if Jesus scores the winning goal for Brazil in the final that would be quite nice.
  • Leon said:

    Always loved a natty waistcoat on a man

    And off a man, Sir?

    Ooh. Suit you.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,876

    There's nothing more likely to get me out canvassing for the Tories again than the prospect of hearing that bloody D:Ream song again.

    Being a canvasser for the Conservatives in 1997 - that must have been an experience.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    glw said:

    Leon said:

    Maguire hopeless again but so predictable

    He is not fit to wear United or England's shirts

    I despise Southgate so much I’m not sure I can be arsed to watch the World Cup
    I really don't like the World Cup being in Qatar, so getting knocked out early would suit me, as then I won't be torn about paying attention to it.
    I don't want to be in the pub three days before xmas watching world cup footy. Fecking stupid idea.
    Nobody wants to be trying to celebrate christmas dos with football wankers pricking about screaming like spanners
    Disaster for pubs in sense that a summer world cup gives them a massive three week bonus in early summer.

    Now it will be lost in the usual xmas boost.

    Or maybe not this year as everyone stays at home around a candle and nibbles on dried rat.
    I prefer fresh rat, the hunt keeps me warm
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,397

    Leon said:

    Always loved a natty waistcoat on a man

    And off a man, Sir?

    Ooh. Suit you.
    Take a bow, sir!
  • I have had difficulty getting a small trolley when I shop at Asda, even from the trolley parks, and I asked the customer service desk and believe or not they source their trolleys from Russia and have had to arrange alternative sources, and expect a supply by the 30th September

    Amazing how this war interferes with so much
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405
    Gonna be a pen
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,158

    rcs1000 said:

    There is a lot of quibbling with @darkage's numbers, but I'm afraid he is broadly correct.

    The reality is that the cost of inputs like bricks and glass have gone through the roof - mostly because energy makes up a very high proportion of their cost of manufacture.

    But let me give you a US example. Bank of America says the average cost for materials to build a single-family home jumped 42% from 2018 to 2021. And it will likely have only got worse in 2022.

    With that said: it's worth remembering that house price building costs can go down as well as up. In the event of a house price correction, those materials would likely become cheaper too.

    They went through the roof because of the US covid stimulus.
    I'm sure that played a role with some things, but it can't explain why the price of bricks has risen so much in the UK, given the fact that bricks are not used in US construction.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Blimey indeed. Extraordinary intervention. A senior US Fed official effectively calling on Truss and Kwarteng to abandon their budget plan to avoid sparking a global crisis. Shades of Suez. https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1574470381733384195

    Well they can fuck off

    I suggest we ask them to “stop having coups” because they are frightening the horses
    Raphael W. Bostic is a wacky looking fucker, but I am sure we can all adhere to his proposals.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,404
    Penalty coming up.
    Southgate for PM.
    Pound worth 2 dollars by October!
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,486
    Gareth Southgate. Legend. I’m going to buy a waistcoat tomorrow.
  • boulay said:

    glw said:

    Leon said:

    Maguire hopeless again but so predictable

    He is not fit to wear United or England's shirts

    I despise Southgate so much I’m not sure I can be arsed to watch the World Cup
    I really don't like the World Cup being in Qatar, so getting knocked out early would suit me, as then I won't be torn about paying attention to it.
    I don't want to be in the pub three days before xmas watching world cup footy. Fecking stupid idea.
    Nobody wants to be trying to celebrate christmas dos with football wankers pricking about screaming like
    spanners
    Although if Jesus scores the winning goal for Brazil in the final that would be quite nice.
    Is Santa Cruz still around?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405

    I have had difficulty getting a small trolley when I shop at Asda, even from the trolley parks, and I asked the customer service desk and believe or not they source their trolleys from Russia and have had to arrange alternative sources, and expect a supply by the 30th September

    Amazing how this war interferes with so much

    Crikey - how many do they get through? I recognise old friends at Waitrose, such as mr squeaky wheel…
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,652
    Unless you pass a law criminalising certain bids, workers will use income and accumulated assets to bid for houses against each other. You can tax people to build two million nice council flats on fields across the country, but you will never convince them to compete less for desirable housing because some other fellow is getting a subsidised council flat.

  • Samuel Tombs
    @samueltombs
    ·
    4h
    If mortgage rates rise to 6%—as implied by markets’ current expectations for Bank Rate—the average household refinancing a 2yr fixed rate mortgage in the first half of 2023 will see *monthly* repayments jump to £1,490, from £863. Many simply won’t be able to afford this

    https://twitter.com/samueltombs
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,659
    Scratch that. Germany are Leicester in disguise...
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    What a match!
  • There's nothing more likely to get me out canvassing for the Tories again than the prospect of hearing that bloody D:Ream song again.

    It could be worse, Labour's new anthem could be Baby Shark.
  • PeterMPeterM Posts: 302
    dixiedean said:

    Penalty coming up.
    Southgate for PM.
    Pound worth 2 dollars by October!

    big fix i tell you...Truss has made some bribes to lift the mood of the nation
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    There is a lot of quibbling with @darkage's numbers, but I'm afraid he is broadly correct.

    The reality is that the cost of inputs like bricks and glass have gone through the roof - mostly because energy makes up a very high proportion of their cost of manufacture.

    But let me give you a US example. Bank of America says the average cost for materials to build a single-family home jumped 42% from 2018 to 2021. And it will likely have only got worse in 2022.

    With that said: it's worth remembering that house price building costs can go down as well as up. In the event of a house price correction, those materials would likely become cheaper too.

    They went through the roof because of the US covid stimulus.
    I'm sure that played a role with some things, but it can't explain why the price of bricks has risen so much in the UK, given the fact that bricks are not used in US construction.
    Well there is possibly a reason to ask, Why the fuck not? Necessity is the mother of invention, and there is no doubt we can work out a way of making houses more cheaply out of compressed straw or used coffee grounds or whatever.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,723
    edited September 2022
    Difficult to see how this Tory government, after 12 years, has not finally run out of road.

    I guess two years is a long time in politics, but at moment it looks like heading to a once in a generation electoral pounding.
  • ...
    Scott_xP said:

    Blimey indeed. Extraordinary intervention. A senior US Fed official effectively calling on Truss and Kwarteng to abandon their budget plan to avoid sparking a global crisis. Shades of Suez. https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1574470381733384195

    That's nice. I think 'Go fuck yourself' works as a response here.
  • Lucky Southgate but it doesn't excuse him playing Maguire and even Shaw
  • So like is Gareth good now or what
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405


    Samuel Tombs
    @samueltombs
    ·
    4h
    If mortgage rates rise to 6%—as implied by markets’ current expectations for Bank Rate—the average household refinancing a 2yr fixed rate mortgage in the first half of 2023 will see *monthly* repayments jump to £1,490, from £863. Many simply won’t be able to afford this

    https://twitter.com/samueltombs

    I thought the idea was to borrow what was affordable including potential future rate rises?
  • ...

    Scott_xP said:

    Blimey indeed. Extraordinary intervention. A senior US Fed official effectively calling on Truss and Kwarteng to abandon their budget plan to avoid sparking a global crisis. Shades of Suez. https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1574470381733384195

    That's nice. I think 'Go fuck yourself' works as a response here.
    Why do you even bother to post? You're a pathetic poster.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    edited September 2022
    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Blimey indeed. Extraordinary intervention. A senior US Fed official effectively calling on Truss and Kwarteng to abandon their budget plan to avoid sparking a global crisis. Shades of Suez. https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1574470381733384195

    Well they can fuck off

    I suggest we ask them to “stop having coups” because they are frightening the horses
    US sticking their beak in is the Brexit style wedge she needs.
    'Who are the US or anyone else to tell us how to grow our economy?'
  • So like is Gareth good now or what

    Apparently not 😀
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,332
    To me he will always be “The One”

    The quiet gent in the waistcoat. Uniting the nation, slowly building to victory. Respect
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,587

    ...

    Scott_xP said:

    Blimey indeed. Extraordinary intervention. A senior US Fed official effectively calling on Truss and Kwarteng to abandon their budget plan to avoid sparking a global crisis. Shades of Suez. https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1574470381733384195

    That's nice. I think 'Go fuck yourself' works as a response here.
    Why do you even bother to post? You're a pathetic poster.
    Could you do your "20 points ahead" post more? I don't think I've seen it enough today.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,486
    Southgate is shit.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,963
    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Blimey indeed. Extraordinary intervention. A senior US Fed official effectively calling on Truss and Kwarteng to abandon their budget plan to avoid sparking a global crisis. Shades of Suez. https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1574470381733384195

    Well they can fuck off

    I suggest we ask them to “stop having coups” because they are frightening the horses
    We must be pretty significant after all, if even a non-budget can cause a global crisis.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,332
    I am alarmingly attracted to the lady who dishes out the fruit cake on this train
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    edited September 2022
    Regarding build costs, I think that the rule of thumb is that the costs are 70% labour and 30% materials. There is some efficiency working at scale.
    As some people have pointed out, there are some new developments in the north of England where houses are being sold at a cost of £2000/sqm (so £125 k for a 2 bed house) I think this can be explained by very low labour costs, and economies of scale with materials - in these cases the actual build costs are likely to be something like £1000 per sqm. It may also be the case that these newbuild houses were built before the current rise in material costs.



  • carnforth said:

    ...

    Scott_xP said:

    Blimey indeed. Extraordinary intervention. A senior US Fed official effectively calling on Truss and Kwarteng to abandon their budget plan to avoid sparking a global crisis. Shades of Suez. https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1574470381733384195

    That's nice. I think 'Go fuck yourself' works as a response here.
    Why do you even bother to post? You're a pathetic poster.
    Could you do your "20 points ahead" post more? I don't think I've seen it enough today.
    Labour 20 points ahead in the next two months.

    THINGS CAN ONLY GET BETTER

    So nice to have another fan, stay well friend!
  • So like is Gareth good now or what

    Same as before this game, very limited manager.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    edited September 2022
    Leon said:

    To me he will always be “The One”

    The quiet gent in the waistcoat. Uniting the nation, slowly building to victory. Respect

    The Woke Waistcoat, diversifying his way to a last 16 humiliation
    But he did make a pizza hut advert

  • Samuel Tombs
    @samueltombs
    ·
    4h
    If mortgage rates rise to 6%—as implied by markets’ current expectations for Bank Rate—the average household refinancing a 2yr fixed rate mortgage in the first half of 2023 will see *monthly* repayments jump to £1,490, from £863. Many simply won’t be able to afford this

    https://twitter.com/samueltombs

    I thought the idea was to borrow what was affordable including potential future rate rises?
    Govt ditched that requirement earlier in the year to prop up asset prices for the boomers.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,404

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Blimey indeed. Extraordinary intervention. A senior US Fed official effectively calling on Truss and Kwarteng to abandon their budget plan to avoid sparking a global crisis. Shades of Suez. https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1574470381733384195

    Well they can fuck off

    I suggest we ask them to “stop having coups” because they are frightening the horses
    US sticking their beak in is the Brexit style wedge she needs.
    'Who are the US or anyone else to tell us how to grow our economy?'
    Quite right.
    Who in the hell should tell me not to saw through the gas pipes whilst smoking?
    Bloody cheek of it.
  • EXCLUSIVE

    Labour has a **17 point** lead over the Tories, Yougov poll for The Times finds

    It's the biggest lead since Yougov started polling in 2001

    Six in 10 voters think Kwarteng's budget was unfair - the worst rating of any fiscal event since 2010

    20 point lead NAILED ON
This discussion has been closed.