Lab maj in to basically 2/1, not the bargain it was 2 weeks ago but still pretty good
Ish,
What we really need on here is someone with a very good grip on political sentiment in Scotland.
If there is any sign of Labour winning even a handful of seats there, the OM is definitely on. Sadly and strangely, PB has always lacked voices from the Scottish Labour Left so it remains hard to tell what, if any, pick up there is in Labour's fortunes there.
I think PB has more Mebyon Kernow posters than ScotLabs.
true dat. A Scon would be good too, which I think @Easterross was when he was around. Always had a soft spot for Scons since a bet on I think 10+ seats in GE 2017 at 10/1 pulled me out of my con maj bet and left me pretty much even.
That was such a good bet. Thanks PB!
(I'm generally SLAB but wouldn't call myself a SLAB poster. I voted Green at the locals because they are good at cycle infrastructure)
Also generally SLab, but I'm imported and don't really have my finger on the pulse. Plus, where I live, Labour was never much of a force. My position, from the ether, is that there are opportunities for SLab but I don't detect any real breakthrough. Anas seems generally well liked, by those who know who he is, but his profile is quite low. A Labour Government in Westminster would probably lift SLab's profile, I would guess.
Think it’s a bit of a shame Labour are saying they would also borrow to cut taxes (only the lower rate cut) because it undermines the fantasy economics argument. But to be fair they are coming across as a damn sight more competent today than the government.
Lab maj in to basically 2/1, not the bargain it was 2 weeks ago but still pretty good
Ish,
What we really need on here is someone with a very good grip on political sentiment in Scotland.
If there is any sign of Labour winning even a handful of seats there, the OM is definitely on. Sadly and strangely, PB has always lacked voices from the Scottish Labour Left so it remains hard to tell what, if any, pick up there is in Labour's fortunes there.
I think PB has more Mebyon Kernow posters than ScotLabs.
true dat. A Scon would be good too, which I think @Easterross was when he was around. Always had a soft spot for Scons since a bet on I think 10+ seats in GE 2017 at 10/1 pulled me out of my con maj bet and left me pretty much even.
That was such a good bet. Thanks PB!
(I'm generally SLAB but wouldn't call myself a SLAB poster. I voted Green at the locals because they are good at cycle infrastructure)
Also generally SLab, but I'm imported and don't really have my finger on the pulse. Plus, where I live, Labour was never much of a force. My position, from the ether, is that there are opportunities for SLab but I don't detect any real breakthrough. Anas seems generally well liked, by those who know who he is, but his profile is quite low. A Labour Government in Westminster would probably lift SLab's profile, I would guess.
PR would be interesting but I fear it won't be well thought through.
Also why is Labour endorsing the 19% basic rate? A national insurance cut would be far more sensible.
This is the issue with Labour
They have endorsed the 19% rate plus the abolition of the NI rise but said they will reinstate the 45% rate and spend it on nurses
The 45% rate produces approx 2 billion, while the other 2 costs 10 times = 20 billion and of course the row today is the 22 billion is all borrowed, so when Reeves said the new nurses were fully funded she was misleading as effectively it is borrowed money and they have also not said how they would recover the other 20 billion
Labour are as much a shambles as the conservatives, and we should all be very concerned about the future stewardship of our economy over the next 5 years or more
I'm starting to think that we need a general election. It'll be more political instability in the short term, but we might get some adults in government.
Lab maj in to basically 2/1, not the bargain it was 2 weeks ago but still pretty good
Ish,
What we really need on here is someone with a very good grip on political sentiment in Scotland.
If there is any sign of Labour winning even a handful of seats there, the OM is definitely on. Sadly and strangely, PB has always lacked voices from the Scottish Labour Left so it remains hard to tell what, if any, pick up there is in Labour's fortunes there.
I think PB has more Mebyon Kernow posters than ScotLabs.
I still don't see Labour winning seats in Scotland for 2 different reasons.
1 - Independence 2 - SNP policies often match Labours to the extent you can replace 1 with the other and you wouldn't notice.
3 - Mr Starmer is looking more and more like a Tory leader in his visual iconography (as well as his statements about indyrefs, of course). But that simply reflects the fact he's trying to appeal to two very different populations north and south of the border.
Things that will sell well in Red Wall seats go down like a bag of sick in Scotland.
Labour may return to some sort of power in Scotland at some point but not in the near
future.
I’ve thought for a long time that their best chance of power north of the border is in an independent Scotland. In many ways it’s their unionism that holds them back. Assume they’d embrace Indy if it happened.
PR would be interesting but I fear it won't be well thought through.
Also why is Labour endorsing the 19% basic rate? A national insurance cut would be far more sensible.
This is the issue with Labour
They have endorsed the 19% rate plus the abolition of the NI rise but said they will reinstate the 45% rate and spend it on nurses
The 45% rate produces approx 2 billion, while the other 2 costs 10 times = 20 billion and of course the row today is the 22 billion is all borrowed, so when Reeves said the new nurses were fully funded she was misleading as effectively it is borrowed money and they have also not said how they would recover the other 20 billion
Labour are as much a shambles as the conservatives, and we should all be very concerned about the future stewardship of our economy over the next 5 years or more
You're complaining about their choice of carpets while your Tories steer straight for the iceberg after hitting it already once?
It's Blair and Brown's fault for creating the structural problems, and it's Cameron and Osborne's fault for not not fixing them when they had the chance. If we are now facing a reckoning, it goes back to the period before the financial crisis.
Even were that true, and it is frankly debatable, no one cares, because they are so utterly utterly sick of the Tories.
Trading over the past couple of sessions is not actually as bad as it could be. In fact Sterling could test parity and then if that breaks it could even start to trade well below for quite a while unless sentiment changes. The markets are deeply unhappy that the OBR is being totally ignored and they increasingly regard the cabal in power as a bunch of arrogant and incompetent tossers. This is now as much about psychology as fundamentals, but since both are bad, the markets could simply pack up and leave. There is an awful lot of ruin in a nation, but the productive capacity of the UK is pretty screwed: dismal infrastructure, patchy basic education and an increasingly squalid public realm.
Cool Britannia it certainly ain´t.
One particular bug bear for me is the state of NHS dentistry. What kind of contempt do you have to have for your fellow citizens in order to condemn them to a lifetime of pain and health problems because you think that having healthy teeth is a cosmetic issue and so everyone should pay thousands of Pounds for basic treatment, even for their kids? What kind of pessimism must you hold to believe that unless education trains you to be an accountant then it is irrelevant and unjustified for those who can not afford it. The whole world of imagination and creativity, which creates massively more jobs than accountancy, not to mention significantly enriching all our lives is dismissed with a philistine ignorance that is simply contemptible.
It is not just that they are morons, they are shits as well.
Having the correct analysis of the problems instead of a partisan rant does matter, otherwise a change of government won't result in the step change we need.
What if looking for a step change solution is the problem?
Sure, it would be great if there was some flick-of-a-switch the UK could do to run better. But it seems to me that the answer is more likely to be about a couple of decades of investing in infrastructure, spending a bit less, saving a bit more, gradually nudging industries and services to be more productive. And then a couple of decades more of this, and so on.
Not sexy or glamourous. Not fun. But compared with the convulsions of recent years, as shaman after shaman has dragged us to the end of a rainbow that never arrives, better.
The problem with this approach is that you can find yourself still going in the wrong direction, just more efficiently.
We do need to look carefully at the fundamentals, and it might take market signals stronger than a gentle nudge. (You can read this as applying to the government itself if you think they've made the wrong call.)
Lab maj in to basically 2/1, not the bargain it was 2 weeks ago but still pretty good
Ish,
What we really need on here is someone with a very good grip on political sentiment in Scotland.
If there is any sign of Labour winning even a handful of seats there, the OM is definitely on. Sadly and strangely, PB has always lacked voices from the Scottish Labour Left so it remains hard to tell what, if any, pick up there is in Labour's fortunes there.
I think PB has more Mebyon Kernow posters than ScotLabs.
true dat. A Scon would be good too, which I think @Easterross was when he was around. Always had a soft spot for Scons since a bet on I think 10+ seats in GE 2017 at 10/1 pulled me out of my con maj bet and left me pretty much even.
That was such a good bet. Thanks PB!
(I'm generally SLAB but wouldn't call myself a SLAB poster. I voted Green at the locals because they are good at cycle infrastructure)
So, you are gold dust.
Reckon your chances in 2024?
Well my theory was that the GE will be in May next year (before the coronation?) and everyone laughed at me.
I don't think Slab can ever match the SNP's ability to represent people in Scotland, so will always be an uphill battle. Need the SNP to implode, much predicted on here but 5% chance after SC decision.
Truss and Kwarteng seem to be on an ideological crusade to re-write the rules and have gambled big time on this .
I think the Labour framing as them gambling with your money is very good and if the BOE have to step in with an emergency interest rate hike the Tories fiscal credibility or what’s left of it will be shot to pieces.
It’s also pretty clear to most Tory MPs that if Sunak had got the job there wouldn’t be this current drama .
Sunak and Gove are well placed to pick up the pieces.
I can't believe the comment from Paul Donovan - he being the chief economist of UBS Global Wealth Management - 'investors seem inclined to regard the UK Conservative party as a doomsday cult.'
PR would be interesting but I fear it won't be well thought through.
Also why is Labour endorsing the 19% basic rate? A national insurance cut would be far more sensible.
This is the issue with Labour
They have endorsed the 19% rate plus the abolition of the NI rise but said they will reinstate the 45% rate and spend it on nurses
The 45% rate produces approx 2 billion, while the other 2 costs 10 times = 20 billion and of course the row today is the 22 billion is all borrowed, so when Reeves said the new nurses were fully funded she was misleading as effectively it is borrowed money and they have also not said how they would recover the other 20 billion
Labour are as much a shambles as the conservatives, and we should all be very concerned about the future stewardship of our economy over the next 5 years or more
You're complaining about their choice of carpets while your Tories steer straight for the iceberg after hitting it already once?
I fully accept the conservatives have likely lost GE 24 but Labour must be held to account as nobody gets a free pass on this
BREAKING: Labour members have backed a motion calling for proportional representation. First time a major party represented in the UK parliament has suggested ditching first past the post. https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1574443496064401410
I note John McDonnell, twitted by @Richard_Nabavi in the last thread, is a strong and fairly recent convert to the idea. Which is very decent of him, since it wold ensure a Corbyn or Truss type government would be unlikely to be in power.
Interviewed on the Today program this morning, he said he thought it undemocratic that FPTP effectively enabled an extreme faction of one of the two major parties to hijack power, when they represented only a fraction of the population.
According to a number of PB denizens over the years, McDonnell was some sort of cross between Chairman Mao and Pol Pot. His 2017 budget plan was a lot more sensible than Friday's, and the 2019 one fractionally more, or possibly more than that.
No long-term commitments to huge tax cuts or defence spending, and there would have been a number of windfall taxes to offset the huge cost of the energy bailout, from him. Not to say the 2019 budget manifesto was ideal, but still, probably better than Friday's.
John Rentoul @JohnRentoul · 11m Replying to @RedfieldWilton First poll after the emergency Budget; if that were a general election it would mean a Labour majority of 70 on new boundaries
Typing lab maj in my search bar to find somewhere to top up my bet, I get a lot of offers of labia majora and an article by someone called Smithson saying LAB IS GROSSLY OVER-PRICED IN THE GE MAJORITY BETTING. Respectfully disagree.
In this situation, who doesn’t want a lab majora, but especially if you have seen it coming, and topping up on it for some time.
BREAKING: Labour members have backed a motion calling for proportional representation. First time a major party represented in the UK parliament has suggested ditching first past the post. https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1574443496064401410
I note John McDonnell, twitted by @Richard_Nabavi in the last thread, is a strong and fairly recent convert to the idea. Which is very decent of him, since it wold ensure a Corbyn or Truss type government would be unlikely to be in power.
Interviewed on the Today program this morning, he said he thought it undemocratic that FPTP effectively enabled an extreme faction of one of the two major parties to hijack power, when they represented only a fraction of the population.
According to a number of PB denizens over the years, McDonnell was some sort of cross between Chairman Mao and Pol Pot. His 2017 budget plan was a lot more sensible than Friday's, and the 2019 one fractionally more.
McDonnell was one of the few Corbynites to enhance his reputation during his time as a frontbench. Wiley enough to not fall out publicly with Starmer.
On topic, not much Truss bounce as Truss dip, as I forecast.
Truss and Kwarteng seem to be on an ideological crusade to re-write the rules and have gambled big time on this .
I think the Labour framing as them gambling with your money is very good and if the BOE have to step in with an emergency interest rate hike the Tories fiscal credibility or what’s left of it will be shot to pieces.
It’s also pretty clear to most Tory MPs that if Sunak had got the job there wouldn’t be this current drama .
It's an extraordinary thing. I think of myself as pretty right-wing in terms of economics (a softy liberal otherwise), but I'd not have risked it.
It really could work. I doubt it, but it could.
(What is good is that the rule-book got slightly smaller)
John Rentoul @JohnRentoul · 11m Replying to @RedfieldWilton First poll after the emergency Budget; if that were a general election it would mean a Labour majority of 70 on new boundaries
Typing lab maj in my search bar to find somewhere to top up my bet, I get a lot of offers of labia majora and an article by someone called Smithson saying LAB IS GROSSLY OVER-PRICED IN THE GE MAJORITY BETTING. Respectfully disagree.
In this situation, who doesn’t want a lab majora, but especially if you have seen it coming, and topping up on it for some time.
***BETTING POST***
We are going to be setting off the sandpit porn filters, what with TSE posting a still from the masterpiece Bareblack Orgy downthread.
We are in a whole world of trouble in this country. How is it even possible to fuck things up so badly whereby we have a Prime Minister that no-one actually wants, doing things that nobody either asked or voted for?
Of course, when I say nobody, I obviously mean anyone who isn't a total humungous arse.
It's a little unfair to single out BartholomewRoberts.
PR would be interesting but I fear it won't be well thought through.
Also why is Labour endorsing the 19% basic rate? A national insurance cut would be far more sensible.
This is the issue with Labour
They have endorsed the 19% rate plus the abolition of the NI rise but said they will reinstate the 45% rate and spend it on nurses
The 45% rate produces approx 2 billion, while the other 2 costs 10 times = 20 billion and of course the row today is the 22 billion is all borrowed, so when Reeves said the new nurses were fully funded she was misleading as effectively it is borrowed money and they have also not said how they would recover the other 20 billion
Labour are as much a shambles as the conservatives, and we should all be very concerned about the future stewardship of our economy over the next 5 years or more
You're complaining about their choice of carpets while your Tories steer straight for the iceberg after hitting it already once?
I fully accept the conservatives have likely lost GE 24 but Labour must be held to account as nobody gets a free pass on this
You crash the train, you don't get out of it by asking if the Railway Inspectorate* has checked the fencing on the other railway company's line.
BREAKING: Labour members have backed a motion calling for proportional representation. First time a major party represented in the UK parliament has suggested ditching first past the post. https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1574443496064401410
I note John McDonnell, twitted by @Richard_Nabavi in the last thread, is a strong and fairly recent convert to the idea. Which is very decent of him, since it wold ensure a Corbyn or Truss type government would be unlikely to be in power.
Interviewed on the Today program this morning, he said he thought it undemocratic that FPTP effectively enabled an extreme faction of one of the two major parties to hijack power, when they represented only a fraction of the population.
According to a number of PB denizens over the years, McDonnell was some sort of cross between Chairman Mao and Pol Pot. His 2017 budget plan was a lot more sensible than Friday's, and the 2019 one fractionally more.
McDonnell was one of the few Corbynites to enhance his reputation during his time as a frontbench. Wiley enough to not fall out publicly with Starmer.
On topic, not much Truss bounce as Truss dip, as I forecast.
People may not have liked McDonnell or his ideas, but they respected him as a political operator.
Truss and Kwarteng seem to be on an ideological crusade to re-write the rules and have gambled big time on this .
I think the Labour framing as them gambling with your money is very good and if the BOE have to step in with an emergency interest rate hike the Tories fiscal credibility or what’s left of it will be shot to pieces.
It’s also pretty clear to most Tory MPs that if Sunak had got the job there wouldn’t be this current drama .
[...] Paul Donovan - he being the chief economist of UBS Global Wealth Management - 'investors seem inclined to regard the UK Conservative party as a doomsday cult.'
Truss and Kwarteng seem to be on an ideological crusade to re-write the rules and have gambled big time on this .
I think the Labour framing as them gambling with your money is very good and if the BOE have to step in with an emergency interest rate hike the Tories fiscal credibility or what’s left of it will be shot to pieces.
It’s also pretty clear to most Tory MPs that if Sunak had got the job there wouldn’t be this current drama .
[...] Paul Donovan - he being the chief economist of UBS Global Wealth Management - 'investors seem inclined to regard the UK Conservative party as a doomsday cult.'
Does look like Truss has given the Tories a bounce in London, where they are on 40% and Scotland, where they are on 28% in the Redfield subsample.
However in the East Midlands and South West the Tories have collapsed to just 28%, in the North East the Tories are now on just 23% and in the North West on just 16%.
Im not sure which subsample is more amusing - Tories ahead in London or Labour on 72% in the NE! Or maybe its the SCons on 15 seats (current boundaries)
I'm starting to think that we need a general election. It'll be more political instability in the short term, but we might get some adults in government.
The Conservatives really have lost the plot.
The major problem is that they seem to think that even their own MPs who are nervous can simply be discarded as irrelevant. It's an odd stance when the MPs finally having had enough was what did for Boris.
As it is they seem to think to be like Thatcher simply means sticking to what you want to do no matter what anyone says and even if you have not secured support for it on your own side yet.
Granted, I wasn't there, but as confident and decisive as she was I doubt she thought everyone else was irrelevant. At least before the end period.
I'm starting to think that we need a general election. It'll be more political instability in the short term, but we might get some adults in government.
The Conservatives really have lost the plot.
On paper this government has a mandate already. Despite being largely in opposition to the mandate of 2019. So much as we may think an election is needed, we won't get one.
I genuinely can see a scenario where Truss is out on here ear quickly - and its both absurd and hilarious in equal measure. But all that would happen is the Tory MPs would impose another substitute PM - there is no way a no confidence motion would pass in this parliament.
Lab maj in to basically 2/1, not the bargain it was 2 weeks ago but still pretty good
Ish,
What we really need on here is someone with a very good grip on political sentiment in Scotland.
If there is any sign of Labour winning even a handful of seats there, the OM is definitely on. Sadly and strangely, PB has always lacked voices from the Scottish Labour Left so it remains hard to tell what, if any, pick up there is in Labour's fortunes there.
I think PB has more Mebyon Kernow posters than ScotLabs.
true dat. A Scon would be good too, which I think @Easterross was when he was around. Always had a soft spot for Scons since a bet on I think 10+ seats in GE 2017 at 10/1 pulled me out of my con maj bet and left me pretty much even.
That was such a good bet. Thanks PB!
(I'm generally SLAB but wouldn't call myself a SLAB poster. I voted Green at the locals because they are good at cycle infrastructure)
Also generally SLab, but I'm imported and don't really have my finger on the pulse. Plus, where I live, Labour was never much of a force. My position, from the ether, is that there are opportunities for SLab but I don't detect any real breakthrough. Anas seems generally well liked, by those who know who he is, but his profile is quite low. A Labour Government in Westminster would probably lift SLab's profile, I would guess.
A circular problem, then...
I certainly used to think so, that the route to a Labour Government went through the SNP. Seems Starmer might have found a different way.
It's Blair and Brown's fault for creating the structural problems, and it's Cameron and Osborne's fault for not not fixing them when they had the chance. If we are now facing a reckoning, it goes back to the period before the financial crisis.
One particular bug bear for me is the state of NHS dentistry. What kind of contempt do you have to have for your fellow citizens in order to condemn them to a lifetime of pain and health problems because you think that having healthy teeth is a cosmetic issue and so everyone should pay thousands of Pounds for basic treatment, even for their kids?
If you can’t be arsed to brush your teeth after drinking Fanta then pay for your own bloody fillings.
Personally I don´t have any. But then I had free access to an NHS dentist throughout my childhood.
So did I (and no fanta) and I have bloody terrible teeth. Lots of people just have. This looks like victim blaming in its purest form.
It is, and given the misery of untreated dental problems, and the utter inaffordability of private treatment for a significant part of the population, it's pretty unpleasant.
I find it so odd. One wouldn't just refuse to treat people's hands and arms, or stomachs, on the NHS. But NHS dentistry ...
Truss and Kwarteng seem to be on an ideological crusade to re-write the rules and have gambled big time on this .
I think the Labour framing as them gambling with your money is very good and if the BOE have to step in with an emergency interest rate hike the Tories fiscal credibility or what’s left of it will be shot to pieces.
It’s also pretty clear to most Tory MPs that if Sunak had got the job there wouldn’t be this current drama .
Sunak and Gove are well placed to pick up the pieces.
I can't believe the comment from Paul Donovan - he being the chief economist of UBS Global Wealth Management - 'investors seem inclined to regard the UK Conservative party as a doomsday cult.'
PR would be interesting but I fear it won't be well thought through.
Also why is Labour endorsing the 19% basic rate? A national insurance cut would be far more sensible.
This is the issue with Labour
They have endorsed the 19% rate plus the abolition of the NI rise but said they will reinstate the 45% rate and spend it on nurses
The 45% rate produces approx 2 billion, while the other 2 costs 10 times = 20 billion and of course the row today is the 22 billion is all borrowed, so when Reeves said the new nurses were fully funded she was misleading as effectively it is borrowed money and they have also not said how they would recover the other 20 billion
Labour are as much a shambles as the conservatives, and we should all be very concerned about the future stewardship of our economy over the next 5 years or more
You're complaining about their choice of carpets while your Tories steer straight for the iceberg after hitting it already once?
I fully accept the conservatives have likely lost GE 24 but Labour must be held to account as nobody gets a free pass on this
The 19p rate is fine. Corp tax a choice but the 45p rate was madness to ditch. Basic rate PAYE graduates effectively that on anything over 27k.
Politically, Truss's mistake was probably overestimating how much her thinking had been absorbed by the body politic. She assumed people would understand the direction she was going in, but instead she's left them confused. Given the delay because of the Queen's death, it might have been better to save her 'shock and awe' plan until after the party conference.
The people who've suddenly discovered inflation in the past twelve months who are suddenly concerned would be more credible if they'd had a proper handle on inflation in house prices etc for the past couple of decades.
In house costs the average inflation rate is over 6% compound annual price growth, over decades.
That's no better than CPI 6%.
Asset inflation good Price inflation bad
One person's asset is another person's price.
Both are equally bad. Expensive houses is no better than expensive gas, or potatoes, or cars.
This is true, but there's a couple of important caveats:
(1) Lots of people owe money secured on their primary properties. Nominal falls in the value of property make it hard for people to move home, because they end up with negative equity. (And, of course, you don't actually need property values to fall below the mortgage total to prevent people from being able to move: stamp duty, solicitors fees, and the requirement for a new deposit all mean that if your property falls below - say - a 15% premium to your mortgage, then you could be in trouble.)
Negative equity matters because it impacts labour mobility. And labour mobility matters because it helps get the right people in the right jobs.
(2) Falling house prices directly affect people's "personal wealth" calculations. If it declines, they compensate by saving more. Now, one can argue (and probably should argue) that Brits should save more. But if Brits start saving more at the same time they're also paying more for their mortgages (higher interest rates) and for their utilities (higher gas and electricity bills), then that's going to squeeze disposable income hard.
Lab conference will be overshadowed by all this which will be annoying to lab strategists who have been planning it as one of the key events to introduce a 'government in waiting' to public in next two years.
But then again, to be overshadowed by a tory economic Black Monday shitshow that is going to feck middle england mortgages is a win they will probably take with good grace.
It kind of works for them. One hand people will see Tory chaos, and on the off chance they hear anything about the conference they will think 'Huh, they've really turned it around', the latter enhanced by the former.
PR would be interesting but I fear it won't be well thought through.
Also why is Labour endorsing the 19% basic rate? A national insurance cut would be far more sensible.
This is the issue with Labour
They have endorsed the 19% rate plus the abolition of the NI rise but said they will reinstate the 45% rate and spend it on nurses
The 45% rate produces approx 2 billion, while the other 2 costs 10 times = 20 billion and of course the row today is the 22 billion is all borrowed, so when Reeves said the new nurses were fully funded she was misleading as effectively it is borrowed money and they have also not said how they would recover the other 20 billion
Labour are as much a shambles as the conservatives, and we should all be very concerned about the future stewardship of our economy over the next 5 years or more
You're complaining about their choice of carpets while your Tories steer straight for the iceberg after hitting it already once?
I fully accept the conservatives have likely lost GE 24 but Labour must be held to account as nobody gets a free pass on this
When being chased by a Lion you don't need to out-run the Lion. Just the other people also being chased.
Labour can afford to be seen as least-worst by those who remain deeply sceptical. Not a free pass, no. But an acceptance that although Labour may have some things you find unappealing, that is a significantly better thing than continuing to back a Tory party who have gone utterly insane.
The thing is, the membership DID have the chance to elect someone who was at least sensible. They chose not to.
The Daily Mail and Daily Express are partly to blame for continuing to make this about Brexit and for egging them on towards tax cuts at a time when the country is nowhere near being able to afford them.
Sigh. No need for me to repeat what a thousand other posts on here have doubtless stated. But it makes me really angry. We're going to be dealing with this mess for years to come.
p.s. edited out my swearing. Makes me so cross to see this though
The thing is, the membership DID have the chance to elect someone who was at least sensible. They chose not to.
The Daily Mail and Daily Express are partly to blame for continuing to make this about Brexit and for egging them on towards tax cuts at a time when they country CANNOT AFFORD FUCKING TAX CUTS.
Sorry to shout. It makes me so angry. We're going to be unpicking this mess for years to come if they don't u-turn.
But you're right to be so angry about it. Because in fact the two biggest drivers behind this Brexit-ultra capitalism have been the media and a very specific number of self-interested donors. The thinktanks like the IEA are actualy later arrivals to this climate, rapidly adapting to the new, even more strident environment, and approving it and encouraging it.
PR would be interesting but I fear it won't be well thought through.
Also why is Labour endorsing the 19% basic rate? A national insurance cut would be far more sensible.
This is the issue with Labour
They have endorsed the 19% rate plus the abolition of the NI rise but said they will reinstate the 45% rate and spend it on nurses
The 45% rate produces approx 2 billion, while the other 2 costs 10 times = 20 billion and of course the row today is the 22 billion is all borrowed, so when Reeves said the new nurses were fully funded she was misleading as effectively it is borrowed money and they have also not said how they would recover the other 20 billion
Labour are as much a shambles as the conservatives, and we should all be very concerned about the future stewardship of our economy over the next 5 years or more
How about this argument. Kwasi set Labour traps? The Tory taxes the new PM just scrapped, it was Labours position to oppose in the first place - so who has had to swallow who’s position?
And this, it you are irritated by Labour Reversing the most notorious and hated tax cut in history, and instead using the money gained for more nurses, better pay in NHS, a fleet of new ambulances, 50 new hospitals, 15,000 dentists, the end to homelessness, and part funding to the new job creating space program, then don’t hand them the opportunity to get away with it in the first place.
Politically, Truss's mistake was probably overestimating how much her thinking had been absorbed by the body politic. She assumed people would understand the direction she was going in, but instead she's left them confused. Given the delay because of the Queen's death, it might have been better to save her 'shock and awe' plan until after the party conference.
This was not the time to go on a tax cutting binge and then to have the chancellor say there’s more to come .
As for her thinking , she clearly didn’t do much of that .
Politically, Truss's mistake was probably overestimating how much her thinking had been absorbed by the body politic. She assumed people would understand the direction she was going in, but instead she's left them confused. Given the delay because of the Queen's death, it might have been better to save her 'shock and awe' plan until after the party conference.
Her thinking has not been absorbed by the body politic because unlike her most of the public are not swivel eyed loons.
Anyway, enough with all the doom and gloom about the general state of the economy. At least with fracking we can keep warm this winter and the price of gas should come down a bit more.
Don’t see what the problem is. Scooting along the GWR line between Dawlish and the sea, guzzling an excellent chateauneuf du pape, eating a nice piece of free fruit cake, and watching Vikings Valhalla
And most of my earnings are in dollars and euro. The Tories have just given me an overnight 5% pay rise
Politically, Truss's mistake was probably overestimating how much her thinking had been absorbed by the body politic. She assumed people would understand the direction she was going in, but instead she's left them confused. Given the delay because of the Queen's death, it might have been better to save her 'shock and iawe' plan until after the party conference.
I accepted her thinking, fiscal loosening, monetary tightening but it was the Degree Lack of targeting Kwarteng not discussing it properly with the BoE
PR would be interesting but I fear it won't be well thought through.
Also why is Labour endorsing the 19% basic rate? A national insurance cut would be far more sensible.
This is the issue with Labour
They have endorsed the 19% rate plus the abolition of the NI rise but said they will reinstate the 45% rate and spend it on nurses
The 45% rate produces approx 2 billion, while the other 2 costs 10 times = 20 billion and of course the row today is the 22 billion is all borrowed, so when Reeves said the new nurses were fully funded she was misleading as effectively it is borrowed money and they have also not said how they would recover the other 20 billion
Labour are as much a shambles as the conservatives, and we should all be very concerned about the future stewardship of our economy over the next 5 years or more
The 19% rate is sheer politics, it's a small gesture to the average person in the street. If you are being careful with the economy it may not make sense to cut any taxes at this stage, but if Labour say they'd reverse it they would be charged with taking money away from 'hard working families'. It's a Tory trap that they aren't falling for. The 5% higher rate cut that only people earning over £155K will get is much easier to reverse. If the Tories believed that tax cuts were really the answer why not increase the tax allowances, this was what the Coalition did and it was very popular.
The people who've suddenly discovered inflation in the past twelve months who are suddenly concerned would be more credible if they'd had a proper handle on inflation in house prices etc for the past couple of decades.
In house costs the average inflation rate is over 6% compound annual price growth, over decades.
That's no better than CPI 6%.
Asset inflation good Price inflation bad
One person's asset is another person's price.
Both are equally bad. Expensive houses is no better than expensive gas, or potatoes, or cars.
This is true, but there's a couple of important caveats:
(1) Lots of people owe money secured on their primary properties. Nominal falls in the value of property make it hard for people to move home, because they end up with negative equity. (And, of course, you don't actually need property values to fall below the mortgage total to prevent people from being able to move: stamp duty, solicitors fees, and the requirement for a new deposit all mean that if your property falls below - say - a 15% premium to your mortgage, then you could be in trouble.)
Negative equity matters because it impacts labour mobility. And labour mobility matters because it helps get the right people in the right jobs.
(2) Falling house prices directly affect people's "personal wealth" calculations. If it declines, they compensate by saving more. Now, one can argue (and probably should argue) that Brits should save more. But if Brits start saving more at the same time they're also paying more for their mortgages (higher interest rates) and for their utilities (higher gas and electricity bills), then that's going to squeeze disposable income hard.
Aye its certainly difficult, but there's no painless options.
Don’t see what the problem is. Scooting along the GWR line between Dawlish and the sea, guzzling an excellent chateauneuf du pape, eating a nice piece of free fruit cake, and watching Vikings Valhalla
And most of my earnings are in dollars and euro. The Tories have just given me an overnight 5% pay rise
They get my vote!
Give my regards to the atmospheric pumpiong house at Starcross.
PR would be interesting but I fear it won't be well thought through.
Also why is Labour endorsing the 19% basic rate? A national insurance cut would be far more sensible.
This is the issue with Labour
They have endorsed the 19% rate plus the abolition of the NI rise but said they will reinstate the 45% rate and spend it on nurses
The 45% rate produces approx 2 billion, while the other 2 costs 10 times = 20 billion and of course the row today is the 22 billion is all borrowed, so when Reeves said the new nurses were fully funded she was misleading as effectively it is borrowed money and they have also not said how they would recover the other 20 billion
Labour are as much a shambles as the conservatives, and we should all be very concerned about the future stewardship of our economy over the next 5 years or more
The 19% rate is sheer politics, it's a small gesture to the average person in the street. If you are being careful with the economy it may not make sense to cut any taxes at this stage, but if Labour say they'd reverse it they would be charged with taking money away from 'hard working families'. It's a Tory trap that they aren't falling for. The 5% higher rate cut that only people earning over £155K will get is much easier to reverse. If the Tories believed that tax cuts were really the answer why not increase the tax allowances, this was what the Coalition did and it was very popular.
Ironically your last sentence is apparently what Kwarteng proposes for his next budget statement, though there must be doubts he will ever make it
PR would be interesting but I fear it won't be well thought through.
Also why is Labour endorsing the 19% basic rate? A national insurance cut would be far more sensible.
This is the issue with Labour
They have endorsed the 19% rate plus the abolition of the NI rise but said they will reinstate the 45% rate and spend it on nurses
The 45% rate produces approx 2 billion, while the other 2 costs 10 times = 20 billion and of course the row today is the 22 billion is all borrowed, so when Reeves said the new nurses were fully funded she was misleading as effectively it is borrowed money and they have also not said how they would recover the other 20 billion
Labour are as much a shambles as the conservatives, and we should all be very concerned about the future stewardship of our economy over the next 5 years or more
Come on BigG. Labour are playing to the crowd and tbf, why shouldn't they? The politics of slashing the higher rate looks awful. The fact it collects so little tax is a problem for the Conservatives, it smacks of ideology over practicality. But don't forget that 45% is a Tory and not a New Labour tax. I doubt Reeves would have cut the base rate but it would be suicide for Labour to take it back.
The thing is, the membership DID have the chance to elect someone who was at least sensible. They chose not to.
The Daily Mail and Daily Express are partly to blame for continuing to make this about Brexit and for egging them on towards tax cuts at a time when they country CANNOT AFFORD FUCKING TAX CUTS.
Sorry to shout. It makes me so angry. We're going to be unpicking this mess for years to come if they don't u-turn.
But you're right to be so angry about it. Because in fact the two biggest drivers behind this Brexit-ultra capitalism have been the media and a very specific number of self-interested donors. The thinktanks like the IEA are actualy later arrivals to this climate, rapidly adapting to the new, even more strident environment, and approving it and encouraging it.
There was always the Singapore-on-Thames group of Brexiteers, seeking the ability to smash the modern world and return to the better days where workers had minimal rights and profits could be unencumbered. You can make a fortune betting against an economy, then another fortune profiteering in the ruins of people's lives.
Those are the Tory patrons who have been granted free reign. The Chancellor and the Number 10 Chief of Staff are direct implants from this group. With predictable results.
Anyway, enough with all the doom and gloom about the general state of the economy. At least with fracking we can keep warm this winter and the price of gas should come down a bit more.
Fracking could bring cheapish gas to the UK if we get lucky with the shale and a UK Co is set up to collect the profits along the lines of equinor/first sale to UK cos below market forced but I don't see evidence of either
The UK has too much debt. Markets are questioning whether the UK can meet all its obligations.
The person who gave Britain too much debt is Rishi Sunak via his furlough scheme.
And we never got around to paying back the debts from the GFC. And now we are borrowing a lot more to pay the gas meter. The idea that our government somehow has the power or capability to protect us from the buffering of an extremely choppy sea simply has to stop before it is too late. It is ultimately delusional.
Then why are you so insistent on propping up the pound? Why not allow it to find its 'true' valuation, let manufacturers and the tourism industry benefit, and let imports and foreign holidays get more expensive? It will also reduce the options for Government regarding new debt, and reduce the value of old debt. And when the economy really recovers (as it did after the ERM), the recovery will be genuine.
There aren't any manufacturers to speak of
Imports is pretty much everything: Cars, white goods, electronics, fuel, clothes, building materials and about half our food. So your question is, why not let life get more expensive?
Why is reducing the options for new government borrowing a good thing? Governments don't run on nothing, and what they don't get in tax they have to borrow. reduced options = costs more.
Then we're not doing ourselves any good by pretending to have a currency which is worth the goods and services that we're purchasing with it, when it isn't. We're just putting off the reckoning and making it worse when it happens.
PR would be interesting but I fear it won't be well thought through.
Also why is Labour endorsing the 19% basic rate? A national insurance cut would be far more sensible.
This is the issue with Labour
They have endorsed the 19% rate plus the abolition of the NI rise but said they will reinstate the 45% rate and spend it on nurses
The 45% rate produces approx 2 billion, while the other 2 costs 10 times = 20 billion and of course the row today is the 22 billion is all borrowed, so when Reeves said the new nurses were fully funded she was misleading as effectively it is borrowed money and they have also not said how they would recover the other 20 billion
Labour are as much a shambles as the conservatives, and we should all be very concerned about the future stewardship of our economy over the next 5 years or more
Come on BigG. Labour are playing to the crowd and tbf, why shouldn't they? The politics of slashing the higher rate looks awful. The fact it collects so little tax is a problem for the Conservatives, it smacks of ideology over practicality. But don't forget that 45% is a Tory and not a New Labour tax. I doubt Reeves would have cut the base rate but it would be suicide for Labour to take it back.
I really could not agree with you more
The 45% rate reduction was tin ear politics of world beating proportions
What on earth were they thinking- err they weren't !!!!!
We need a bingo market for Truss’s conference speech. What odds “the lady’s not for turning”?
I hadn't thought of that. Noel Gallagher wrote Oasis songs by liberating Beatles lyrics. Truss can write her speech by doing the same with Mrs Thatcher.
Don’t see what the problem is. Scooting along the GWR line between Dawlish and the sea, guzzling an excellent chateauneuf du pape, eating a nice piece of free fruit cake, and watching Vikings Valhalla
And most of my earnings are in dollars and euro. The Tories have just given me an overnight 5% pay rise
They get my vote!
Give my regards to the atmospheric pumpiong house at Starcross.
GWR have really comfortable, clean, sleek new trains (I haven’t done this journey by rail in ages)
They are punctual and gleaming. Well staffed. They go from Paddington to Truro in 4 hrs 32 mins. They are as good as anything on the continent, if not quite as fast and maybe pricier (or maybe not)
I sometimes - genuinely - don’t recognise the PB portrait of the UK as this toilet of decline and despair
Politically, Truss's mistake was probably overestimating how much her thinking had been absorbed by the body politic. She assumed people would understand the direction she was going in, but instead she's left them confused. Given the delay because of the Queen's death, it might have been better to save her 'shock and awe' plan until after the party conference.
Her thinking has not been absorbed by the body politic because unlike her most of the public are not swivel eyed loons.
I've got to agree with that. The 'man on the street' sees this as borrowing money to do a tax cut for the rich, justified by some right wing propoganda by 'economists', who are actually just viewed as paid propogandists. As soon as it looks like it won't work, people will lose confidence in the ability of the conservatives to run the economy. Not having an answer to rising mortgage interest rates is not a good situation, telling people to just grin and bear it, etc... it just seems like a political catastrophe for the conservatives.
It's Blair and Brown's fault for creating the structural problems, and it's Cameron and Osborne's fault for not not fixing them when they had the chance. If we are now facing a reckoning, it goes back to the period before the financial crisis.
Even were that true, and it is frankly debatable, no one cares, because they are so utterly utterly sick of the Tories.
Trading over the past couple of sessions is not actually as bad as it could be. In fact Sterling could test parity and then if that breaks it could even start to trade well below for quite a while unless sentiment changes. The markets are deeply unhappy that the OBR is being totally ignored and they increasingly regard the cabal in power as a bunch of arrogant and incompetent tossers. This is now as much about psychology as fundamentals, but since both are bad, the markets could simply pack up and leave. There is an awful lot of ruin in a nation, but the productive capacity of the UK is pretty screwed: dismal infrastructure, patchy basic education and an increasingly squalid public realm.
Cool Britannia it certainly ain´t.
One particular bug bear for me is the state of NHS dentistry. What kind of contempt do you have to have for your fellow citizens in order to condemn them to a lifetime of pain and health problems because you think that having healthy teeth is a cosmetic issue and so everyone should pay thousands of Pounds for basic treatment, even for their kids? What kind of pessimism must you hold to believe that unless education trains you to be an accountant then it is irrelevant and unjustified for those who can not afford it. The whole world of imagination and creativity, which creates massively more jobs than accountancy, not to mention significantly enriching all our lives is dismissed with a philistine ignorance that is simply contemptible.
It is not just that they are morons, they are shits as well.
Having the correct analysis of the problems instead of a partisan rant does matter, otherwise a change of government won't result in the step change we need.
What if looking for a step change solution is the problem?
Sure, it would be great if there was some flick-of-a-switch the UK could do to run better. But it seems to me that the answer is more likely to be about a couple of decades of investing in infrastructure, spending a bit less, saving a bit more, gradually nudging industries and services to be more productive. And then a couple of decades more of this, and so on.
Not sexy or glamourous. Not fun. But compared with the convulsions of recent years, as shaman after shaman has dragged us to the end of a rainbow that never arrives, better.
The problem with this approach is that you can find yourself still going in the wrong direction, just more efficiently.
We do need to look carefully at the fundamentals, and it might take market signals stronger than a gentle nudge. (You can read this as applying to the government itself if you think they've made the wrong call.)
One of the few useful things about the government's approach since Friday, is that it so veryclearly outlines the wrong direction, that the right direction is easier to decipher.
I think we'll probably achieve parity this week now.
Must be resignations if so - Kwarteng and Truss is on very thin ice
And what after that, the return of the Clown?
The Conservative Party is nuclear waste. I can't wait for 10% or 15% interest rates to come along, torpedo the property market and destroy them along with it. Bring it on.
Truss and Kwarteng seem to be on an ideological crusade to re-write the rules and have gambled big time on this .
I think the Labour framing as them gambling with your money is very good and if the BOE have to step in with an emergency interest rate hike the Tories fiscal credibility or what’s left of it will be shot to pieces.
It’s also pretty clear to most Tory MPs that if Sunak had got the job there wouldn’t be this current drama .
[...] Paul Donovan - he being the chief economist of UBS Global Wealth Management - 'investors seem inclined to regard the UK Conservative party as a doomsday cult.'
The people who've suddenly discovered inflation in the past twelve months who are suddenly concerned would be more credible if they'd had a proper handle on inflation in house prices etc for the past couple of decades.
In house costs the average inflation rate is over 6% compound annual price growth, over decades.
That's no better than CPI 6%.
Asset inflation good Price inflation bad
One person's asset is another person's price.
Both are equally bad. Expensive houses is no better than expensive gas, or potatoes, or cars.
This is true, but there's a couple of important caveats:
(1) Lots of people owe money secured on their primary properties. Nominal falls in the value of property make it hard for people to move home, because they end up with negative equity. (And, of course, you don't actually need property values to fall below the mortgage total to prevent people from being able to move: stamp duty, solicitors fees, and the requirement for a new deposit all mean that if your property falls below - say - a 15% premium to your mortgage, then you could be in trouble.)
Negative equity matters because it impacts labour mobility. And labour mobility matters because it helps get the right people in the right jobs.
(2) Falling house prices directly affect people's "personal wealth" calculations. If it declines, they compensate by saving more. Now, one can argue (and probably should argue) that Brits should save more. But if Brits start saving more at the same time they're also paying more for their mortgages (higher interest rates) and for their utilities (higher gas and electricity bills), then that's going to squeeze disposable income hard.
Those of us who first bought in the early nineties remember it well.
I think we'll probably achieve parity this week now.
Must be resignations if so - Kwarteng and Truss is on very thin ice
And what after that, the return of the Clown?
The Conservative Party is nuclear waste. I can't wait for 10% or 15% interest rates to come along, torpedo the property market and destroy them along with it. Bring it on.
I think that is a vengeance too far on your fellow brits
PR would be interesting but I fear it won't be well thought through.
Also why is Labour endorsing the 19% basic rate? A national insurance cut would be far more sensible.
This is the issue with Labour
They have endorsed the 19% rate plus the abolition of the NI rise but said they will reinstate the 45% rate and spend it on nurses
The 45% rate produces approx 2 billion, while the other 2 costs 10 times = 20 billion and of course the row today is the 22 billion is all borrowed, so when Reeves said the new nurses were fully funded she was misleading as effectively it is borrowed money and they have also not said how they would recover the other 20 billion
Labour are as much a shambles as the conservatives, and we should all be very concerned about the future stewardship of our economy over the next 5 years or more
Come on BigG. Labour are playing to the crowd and tbf, why shouldn't they? The politics of slashing the higher rate looks awful. The fact it collects so little tax is a problem for the Conservatives, it smacks of ideology over practicality. But don't forget that 45% is a Tory and not a New Labour tax. I doubt Reeves would have cut the base rate but it would be suicide for Labour to take it back.
I really could not agree with you more
The 45% rate reduction was tin ear politics of word beating proportions
What on earth were they thinking- err they weren't !!!!!
Its politically so naive, it removed any chance of a populist wedge by giving Labour a freebie hook. If he really wanted shock and awe take Corp back to 18%. Theres zero chance of being able to point to anything and say see? It worked for at least a year by which time everyone has forgotten why the Tories are on 22% in the polls, just that they are, and deserve to be. Its Clarkes golden legacy up against ERM, Back to basics, that **** and his sword of justice but without any guarantee of a golden legacy. And why the fuck would you not emphasise the energy/help stuff?? Even if you dont give a shit in truth, we all do, and we all vote you cloth eared twat
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 27m Imagine in years to come when people actually read in their history books “in the midst of a cost of living crisis, and with interest rates soaring, the British government announced tax cuts for the very richest people in society”. It’s up there with making your horse a senator.
We need a bingo market for Truss’s conference speech. What odds “the lady’s not for turning”?
I hadn't thought of that. Noel Gallagher wrote Oasis songs by liberating Beatles lyrics. Truss can write her speech by doing the same with Mrs Thatcher.
We need a bingo market for Truss’s conference speech. What odds “the lady’s not for turning”?
I hadn't thought of that. Noel Gallagher wrote Oasis songs by liberating Beatles lyrics. Truss can write her speech by doing the same with Mrs Thatcher.
The parallels are not absent. They were writing of 'the failure of the monetarist experiment' in the early 80's too.
If the pound falls below one dollar that would be a huge deal.
For who?
That line has never been crossed before and would be the final nail in the coffin for the governments fiscal credibility . The BOE would have to step in and at that point the next time the Tories have the cheek to attack Labours plans they would get the derision they deserve .
If the pound falls below one dollar that would be a huge deal.
For who?
That line has never been crossed before and would be the nail in the coffin for the governments fiscal credibility . The BOE would have to step in and at that point the next time the Tories have the cheek to attack Labours plans they would get the derision they deserve .
No it wouldn't. No they wouldn't. And perhaps - that's politics.
PR would be interesting but I fear it won't be well thought through.
Also why is Labour endorsing the 19% basic rate? A national insurance cut would be far more sensible.
This is the issue with Labour
They have endorsed the 19% rate plus the abolition of the NI rise but said they will reinstate the 45% rate and spend it on nurses
The 45% rate produces approx 2 billion, while the other 2 costs 10 times = 20 billion and of course the row today is the 22 billion is all borrowed, so when Reeves said the new nurses were fully funded she was misleading as effectively it is borrowed money and they have also not said how they would recover the other 20 billion
Labour are as much a shambles as the conservatives, and we should all be very concerned about the future stewardship of our economy over the next 5 years or more
The 19% rate is sheer politics, it's a small gesture to the average person in the street. If you are being careful with the economy it may not make sense to cut any taxes at this stage, but if Labour say they'd reverse it they would be charged with taking money away from 'hard working families'. It's a Tory trap that they aren't falling for. The 5% higher rate cut that only people earning over £155K will get is much easier to reverse. If the Tories believed that tax cuts were really the answer why not increase the tax allowances, this was what the Coalition did and it was very popular.
I cannot recall the figure, but the lower tax band does not actually collect a lot of tax. Labour could make the gesture of cutting it another 1% and recoup it with an uptick on corporation tax and possibly the higher rate band.
It is time for drastic measures and that mean tax hikes, freezes on the personal allowance and, in the short term, a windfall tax on excess profits in the utilities.
Let us not forget the utter joy of the Little Red Book incident: Chris Bryant visibly chewing wasps Screams of joy from the Tories And then Osborne's pair of Atomic Demolition Munitions: "Oh look, its his personal signed copy" and "the problem is, half the shadow cabinet have been sent to re-education"
Comments
“Interesting that @tylercowen and I (on @BBCRadio4 PM programme just now) both describe the response to Friday's announcement as an "overreaction".
Cowen also, rightly, says it is a "step in the right direction" & notes the Truss plan includes "many admirable deregulations".
..the odd thing is no one can reply to him unless he follows. Thereby creating a weird bubble and realm of his own self importance
They have endorsed the 19% rate plus the abolition of the NI rise but said they will reinstate the 45% rate and spend it on nurses
The 45% rate produces approx 2 billion, while the other 2 costs 10 times = 20 billion and of course the row today is the 22 billion is all borrowed, so when Reeves said the new nurses were fully funded she was misleading as effectively it is borrowed money and they have also not said how they would recover the other 20 billion
Labour are as much a shambles as the conservatives, and we should all be very concerned about the future stewardship of our economy over the next 5 years or more
The Conservatives really have lost the plot.
I’ve thought for a long time that their best chance of power north of the border is in an independent Scotland. In many ways it’s their unionism that holds them back. Assume they’d embrace Indy if it happened.
We do need to look carefully at the fundamentals, and it might take market signals stronger than a gentle nudge. (You can read this as applying to the government itself if you think they've made the wrong call.)
I don't think Slab can ever match the SNP's ability to represent people in Scotland, so will always be an uphill battle. Need the SNP to implode, much predicted on here but 5% chance after SC decision.
I can't believe the comment from Paul Donovan - he being the chief economist of UBS Global Wealth Management - 'investors seem inclined to regard the UK Conservative party as a doomsday cult.'
https://twitter.com/ChrisHopkins99/status/1574348576221982720
No long-term commitments to huge tax cuts or defence spending, and there would have been a number of windfall taxes to offset the huge cost of the energy bailout, from him. Not to say the 2019 budget manifesto was ideal, but still, probably better than Friday's.
***BETTING POST***
How big is Yr mortgage?
On topic, not much Truss bounce as Truss dip, as I forecast.
It really could work. I doubt it, but it could.
(What is good is that the rule-book got slightly smaller)
*Not the current organization ..
Maguire and Shaw in line up
Madness
Would be even funnier if it wasn't the vast majority of our lives affected by this cock up.
Are there any circumstances by which we could have a General Election or are we condemned to two more years of this shitshow?
Or maybe its the SCons on 15 seats (current boundaries)
As it is they seem to think to be like Thatcher simply means sticking to what you want to do no matter what anyone says and even if you have not secured support for it on your own side yet.
Granted, I wasn't there, but as confident and decisive as she was I doubt she thought everyone else was irrelevant. At least before the end period.
I genuinely can see a scenario where Truss is out on here ear quickly - and its both absurd and hilarious in equal measure. But all that would happen is the Tory MPs would impose another substitute PM - there is no way a no confidence motion would pass in this parliament.
Oh wait, you meant something else.
https://news.sky.com/story/no-10-defends-truss-chief-of-staff-mark-fullbrook-being-paid-through-his-lobbying-firm-12705163
https://www.sarawakreport.org/2022/09/liz-trusss-chief-of-staff-turned-witness-by-the-fbi-under-threat-of-prosecution-over-illegal-funding-of-us-campaign/
“The supply constraints in the British Economy are more about health and education”
The tories are trashing the economy. Labour will fix it.
The bankers know this. We all know this.
Invest in education. Guarantee GP appointments for working people etc.
(1) Lots of people owe money secured on their primary properties. Nominal falls in the value of property make it hard for people to move home, because they end up with negative equity. (And, of course, you don't actually need property values to fall below the mortgage total to prevent people from being able to move: stamp duty, solicitors fees, and the requirement for a new deposit all mean that if your property falls below - say - a 15% premium to your mortgage, then you could be in trouble.)
Negative equity matters because it impacts labour mobility. And labour mobility matters because it helps get the right people in the right jobs.
(2) Falling house prices directly affect people's "personal wealth" calculations. If it declines, they compensate by saving more. Now, one can argue (and probably should argue) that Brits should save more. But if Brits start saving more at the same time they're also paying more for their mortgages (higher interest rates) and for their utilities (higher gas and electricity bills), then that's going to squeeze disposable income hard.
Labour can afford to be seen as least-worst by those who remain deeply sceptical. Not a free pass, no. But an acceptance that although Labour may have some things you find unappealing, that is a significantly better thing than continuing to back a Tory party who have gone utterly insane.
The Daily Mail and Daily Express are partly to blame for continuing to make this about Brexit and for egging them on towards tax cuts at a time when the country is nowhere near being able to afford them.
Sigh. No need for me to repeat what a thousand other posts on here have doubtless stated. But it makes me really angry. We're going to be dealing with this mess for years to come.
p.s. edited out my swearing. Makes me so cross to see this though
And this, it you are irritated by Labour Reversing the most notorious and hated tax cut in history, and instead using the money gained for more nurses, better pay in NHS, a fleet of new ambulances, 50 new hospitals, 15,000 dentists, the end to homelessness, and part funding to the new job creating space program, then don’t hand them the opportunity to get away with it in the first place.
As for her thinking , she clearly didn’t do much of that .
And most of my earnings are in dollars and euro. The Tories have just given me an overnight 5% pay rise
They get my vote!
Degree
Lack of targeting
Kwarteng not discussing it properly with the BoE
That's surprised me
The 5% higher rate cut that only people earning over £155K will get is much easier to reverse.
If the Tories believed that tax cuts were really the answer why not increase the tax allowances, this was what the Coalition did and it was very popular.
Those are the Tory patrons who have been granted free reign. The Chancellor and the Number 10 Chief of Staff are direct implants from this group. With predictable results.
The 45% rate reduction was tin ear politics of world beating proportions
What on earth were they thinking- err they weren't !!!!!
GWR have really comfortable, clean, sleek new trains (I haven’t done this journey by rail in ages)
They are punctual and gleaming. Well staffed. They go from Paddington to Truro in 4 hrs 32 mins. They are as good as anything on the continent, if not quite as fast and maybe pricier (or maybe not)
I sometimes - genuinely - don’t recognise the PB portrait of the UK as this toilet of decline and despair
The Conservative Party is nuclear waste. I can't wait for 10% or 15% interest rates to come along, torpedo the property market and destroy them along with it. Bring it on.
Then we get a GE.
Indeed I expect they have already lost GE 24
No wonder Labour is looking chipper this week , but they'll have a hell of a mess to clear up.
Now where have I heard that formulation before, mm ?
Its Clarkes golden legacy up against ERM, Back to basics, that **** and his sword of justice but without any guarantee of a golden legacy.
And why the fuck would you not emphasise the energy/help stuff?? Even if you dont give a shit in truth, we all do, and we all vote you cloth eared twat
Or TINA.
(((Dan Hodges)))
@DPJHodges
·
27m
Imagine in years to come when people actually read in their history books “in the midst of a cost of living crisis, and with interest rates soaring, the British government announced tax cuts for the very richest people in society”. It’s up there with making your horse a senator.
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1574458922911633409
You won't switch this woman.
It is time for drastic measures and that mean tax hikes, freezes on the personal allowance and, in the short term, a windfall tax on excess profits in the utilities.
Let us not forget the utter joy of the Little Red Book incident:
Chris Bryant visibly chewing wasps
Screams of joy from the Tories
And then Osborne's pair of Atomic Demolition Munitions:
"Oh look, its his personal signed copy" and
"the problem is, half the shadow cabinet have been sent to re-education"
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-politics-34926510
Nobody should ever ask Chairman John for serious comments on anything.