Worrying poll findings for Truss from YouGov and R&K – politicalbetting.com

rcs1000 said:

There is a lot of quibbling with @darkage's numbers, but I'm afraid he is broadly correct.

The reality is that the cost of inputs like bricks and glass have gone through the roof - mostly because energy makes up a very high proportion of their cost of manufacture.

But let me give you a US example. Bank of America says the average cost for materials to build a single-family home jumped 42% from 2018 to 2021. And it will likely have only got worse in 2022.

With that said: it's worth remembering that house price building costs can go down as well as up. In the event of a house price correction, those materials would likely become cheaper too.

rcs1000 said:

rottenborough said:

We really, really need a mild winter...


OECD Economics
@OECDeconomy
In the 🇪🇺, gas supply #disruptions from reduced Russian flows risk hitting the #economy hard.

In case of a cold winter & without alternative sources, European #gas storage levels will fall dangerously low – below 30%.

Sizeable gas demand reduction measures are needed.

https://twitter.com/OECDeconomy/status/1574372249272217601

Actually, those numbers are about as good as you would hope. Europe can survive this winter, even if it is painful.

Carnyx said:

But there is something to be said for GNER/LNER and their First Class - which has meals and refreshments included.

PeterM said:

Mexicanpete said:

..

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

20 point lead in the next two months.

I can't see the Conservatives recovering that much in this Parliament.

funny how its almost exactly 30 years since erm debacle...history does rhyme

rottenborough said:

We really, really need a mild winter...


OECD Economics
@OECDeconomy
In the 🇪🇺, gas supply #disruptions from reduced Russian flows risk hitting the #economy hard.

In case of a cold winter & without alternative sources, European #gas storage levels will fall dangerously low – below 30%.

Sizeable gas demand reduction measures are needed.

https://twitter.com/OECDeconomy/status/1574372249272217601

FrancisUrquhart said:

Who gets sacked first, Gareth Waistcoat or Fizzy Lizzy?

IshmaelZ said:

turbotubbs said:

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

Is this the worst Tory Government in history?

Never forget the glory of the cones hotline, Major smashing Edwina Curry, and the sleaziest of sleazy administrations.

Major/Curry?

You do realise that we have for literally the first time in history a government where the PM has been buggered by the chancellor?

And, yes, I know what literally means.

Carnyx said:

stodge said:

Evening all

Just to muse on the train journey from London to Cornwall it did use to be something special when they had a proper dining car. In First Class, they would ask which sitting you wanted - two sittings, one for those getting off at Exeter and they'd offer second sitting for those travelling further down (I was going to St Erth).

I'll confess - you didn't eat on that train for the food but for the views which were, especially past Exeter, stunning.

The modern trains are comfortable enough and tailor to the current age - if you have your laptop, phone or tablet you can ride in comfort but it's not the same...

To be fair, the at-seat service, if you get on the right train, starts in the far west of Cornwall and you can enjoy it all for nothing right up to Reading.

Memories of KX to/from Edinburgh in the late 1960s. Proper stuff, Deltics and kitchen cars, and silver service in the dining car while galloping up Lincolnshire and Yorkshire. But there is something to be said for GNER/LNER and their First Class - which has meals and refreshments included.

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

Is this the worst Tory Government in history?

I'm a lifelong Tory and I want the Tories to be utterly gubbed at the next election, that's how bad they are.

Is that D:REAM I hear?

THINGS...

Leon said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Maguire hopeless again but so predictable

He is not fit to wear United or England's shirts

I despise Southgate so much I’m not sure I can be arsed to watch the World Cup

glw said:

Leon said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Maguire hopeless again but so predictable

He is not fit to wear United or England's shirts

I despise Southgate so much I’m not sure I can be arsed to watch the World Cup

I really don't like the World Cup being in Qatar, so getting knocked out early would suit me, as then I won't be torn about paying attention to it.

Anabobazina said:

Every shot on target we’ve had has been weak and straight at the keeper

stodge said:

pm215 said:

They do still do proper at-seat three-course meals in a kind of half-dining car, if you pick the right train: https://www.gwr.com/travelling-with-us/pullman-dining -- I did that last year on my way back from a holiday in Cornwall.

Yes but it's not what it was on the old 125s with a full dining car. It's also a much more limited service whereas in the old days you'd get dining on the Royal Duchy, the Golden Hind and of course the Cornish Riviera.

I do hear good things about the Night Sleeper - train down and breakfast overlooking the sea in St Ives has a lot going for it.

IshmaelZ said:

turbotubbs said:

IshmaelZ said:

turbotubbs said:

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

Is this the worst Tory Government in history?

Never forget the glory of the cones hotline, Major smashing Edwina Curry, and the sleaziest of sleazy administrations.

Major/Curry?

You do realise that we have for literally the first time in history a government where the PM has been buggered by the chancellor?

And, yes, I know what literally means.

Seems rather specific knowledge of what they got up to…

Nope. Open secret.

bonus tip: she prefers it unlubed.

rottenborough said:

glw said:

Leon said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Maguire hopeless again but so predictable

He is not fit to wear United or England's shirts

I despise Southgate so much I’m not sure I can be arsed to watch the World Cup

I really don't like the World Cup being in Qatar, so getting knocked out early would suit me, as then I won't be torn about paying attention to it.

I don't want to be in the pub three days before xmas watching world cup footy. Fecking stupid idea.

stodge said:

A fascinating day politically - Rachel Reeves gave what I thought was a reasonable considered speech at the Labour Conference. I was slightly puzzled on one aspect - if you're going to condemn Truss and Kwarteng for irresponsible borrowing, fine but if you're still going to borrow the same and just spend it on something different (nurses) to what extent is that any more responsible?

I would have liked Reeves to have said more about reducing borrowing and thereby the deficit. That would give her more credibility on spending - it now seems expected Kwarteng is going for a savage round next year. Given current inflation, a freeze on current spending levels will be a near 10% real terms cut.

Unfortunately, if Labour choose to oppose the spending plans, they'll have to explain themselves how to square the borrowing circle. Reeves spoke of a windfall tax from energy companies - that will be popular of course though I have my doubts. Even so, to what extent would it plug a £45 billion gap?

The abolition of the NI levy has left a £12 billion funding gap for the provision of care for vulnerable adults and children. Put that on top of a severely tight spending round and you may see any number of authorities heading down the Section 114 route.

It's not 1980 - we don't have North Sea Oil or privatisation receipts to help fund the supply side revolution. We are also tight on labour capacity - how will the new growth be achieved if we can't fill the shortages of workers irrespective of how much fruit is in the shops?

pigeon said:

EPG said:

pigeon said:

williamglenn said:

darkage said:

Anyone who thinks that there is a forthcoming house price crash needs to answer the 'build cost problem' that I keep repeating, because no one has ever come back to me with any meaningful response.

The cost of building a house is about £2500 per square metre, so a small family home (100sqm) costs £250,000 just to build, because of rapid recent inflation in the cost of materials and labour, and recent expensive regulation.

A house price crash at the levels people envisage will lead to a shutdown of the third biggest industry in the UK (the real estate and development industry). No new build can ever happen because the cheapest these houses can be built and sold for (about £300k) cannot work for buyers. Even if you have a 75k deposit, the cost of servicing the debt on a £225k mortgage is about £15,750 per year (at 7%)- or £24750 if you are in a 25 year repayment mortgage. That is over £2k per month just in mortgage repayments before any other expenses - so double what they might be paying now with rates at 2%.

This means that very little or no housebuilding will take place because housing is unaffordable for people on average incomes, but demand will keep rising anyway due to immigration and new household formation. So rents associated with the existing housing stock will will just increase, and the housing market will be driven by investors exploiting this for good, stable returns.

It is not much to celebrate, just a catastrophe. @pigeon @kyf_100

First time buyers make up a fraction of buyers. New-build homes make up a fraction of sales. You can still have a functioning market in which new-build homes are aspirational and out of the reach of most first time buyers.

If this kind of market doesn't work for the type of housebuilders (and land bankers) who build the kind of estates that generate opposition to building, then maybe we would be better off with fewer of them, and we could have a more continental market structure.

And it's at this stage that we should remind ourselves of how loose building regs have become and how shite many new build homes therefore are. Tiny little poky boxes full of tiny little poky rooms that people only think of buying because they're so desperate to escape the rental trap.

Council houses. Fucktons of em. Built to decent standards. If the state invests in enough good homes it'll put a lid on house prices, liberate chunks of people's incomes from being wasted on vastly overinflated rents and mortgages, and therefore pay for itself through investment and consumption in the remainder of the economy.

Ridiculous house prices are the great disease of the British economy, social rentals are the cure. Labour should snap to it.

There's already Birmingham if that model worked, but it appears people instead prefer to compete to live in desirable areas.

The entire point is that a large fraction of the populace can't "compete to live in desirable areas." They can barely afford to live full stop.

Besides which, much post-war public housing is desirable. Yes, some of it is in grotty tower blocks and sink estates, but well-constructed, low rise, spacious Sixties apartments, for example, often retail for a bloody fortune.

The aim of housing policy should be to prioritise quality, security and affordability of good homes over their commoditisation. Let us have an end to the attitude that all houses must be an investment designed to make their owners rich at everyone else's expense.

If there were sufficient, decent quality, affordable housing to go around then of course people who really wanted to live in swanky abodes - old manor houses in Oxfordshire, chocolate box cottages in Dorset, pieds-a-terre in Belgravia - could still "compete" for the privilege. It would just absolve the rest of us of having to waste our lives on this needless treadmill if we didn't want to. Decent, run-of-the-mill homes should be available to people at decent, run-of-the-mill prices, and not feel like unobtainable luxuries.

rottenborough said:

glw said:

Leon said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Maguire hopeless again but so predictable

He is not fit to wear United or England's shirts

I despise Southgate so much I’m not sure I can be arsed to watch the World Cup

I really don't like the World Cup being in Qatar, so getting knocked out early would suit me, as then I won't be torn about paying attention to it.

I don't want to be in the pub three days before xmas watching world cup footy. Fecking stupid idea.

Scott_xP said:

Blimey indeed. Extraordinary intervention. A senior US Fed official effectively calling on Truss and Kwarteng to abandon their budget plan to avoid sparking a global crisis. Shades of Suez. https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1574470381733384195

Leon said:

Always loved a natty waistcoat on a man

rottenborough said:

wooliedyed said:

rottenborough said:

glw said:

Leon said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Maguire hopeless again but so predictable

He is not fit to wear United or England's shirts

I despise Southgate so much I’m not sure I can be arsed to watch the World Cup

I really don't like the World Cup being in Qatar, so getting knocked out early would suit me, as then I won't be torn about paying attention to it.

I don't want to be in the pub three days before xmas watching world cup footy. Fecking stupid idea.

Nobody wants to be trying to celebrate christmas dos with football wankers pricking about screaming like spanners

Disaster for pubs in sense that a summer world cup gives them a massive three week bonus in early summer.

Now it will be lost in the usual xmas boost.

Or maybe not this year as everyone stays at home around a candle and nibbles on dried rat.

Luckyguy1983 said:

rcs1000 said:

There is a lot of quibbling with @darkage's numbers, but I'm afraid he is broadly correct.

The reality is that the cost of inputs like bricks and glass have gone through the roof - mostly because energy makes up a very high proportion of their cost of manufacture.

But let me give you a US example. Bank of America says the average cost for materials to build a single-family home jumped 42% from 2018 to 2021. And it will likely have only got worse in 2022.

With that said: it's worth remembering that house price building costs can go down as well as up. In the event of a house price correction, those materials would likely become cheaper too.

They went through the roof because of the US covid stimulus.

boulay said:

wooliedyed said:

rottenborough said:

glw said:

Leon said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Maguire hopeless again but so predictable

He is not fit to wear United or England's shirts

I despise Southgate so much I’m not sure I can be arsed to watch the World Cup

I really don't like the World Cup being in Qatar, so getting knocked out early would suit me, as then I won't be torn about paying attention to it.

I don't want to be in the pub three days before xmas watching world cup footy. Fecking stupid idea.

Nobody wants to be trying to celebrate christmas dos with football wankers pricking about screaming like
spanners

Although if Jesus scores the winning goal for Brazil in the final that would be quite nice.

Casino_Royale said:

There's nothing more likely to get me out canvassing for the Tories again than the prospect of hearing that bloody D:Ream song again.

Scott_xP said:

Blimey indeed. Extraordinary intervention. A senior US Fed official effectively calling on Truss and Kwarteng to abandon their budget plan to avoid sparking a global crisis. Shades of Suez. https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1574470381733384195

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

So like is Gareth good now or what

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

...

Scott_xP said:

Blimey indeed. Extraordinary intervention. A senior US Fed official effectively calling on Truss and Kwarteng to abandon their budget plan to avoid sparking a global crisis. Shades of Suez. https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1574470381733384195

That's nice. I think 'Go fuck yourself' works as a response here.

Why do you even bother to post? You're a pathetic poster.

Leon said:

Scott_xP said:

Blimey indeed. Extraordinary intervention. A senior US Fed official effectively calling on Truss and Kwarteng to abandon their budget plan to avoid sparking a global crisis. Shades of Suez. https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1574470381733384195

Well they can fuck off

I suggest we ask them to “stop having coups” because they are frightening the horses

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

So like is Gareth good now or what

turbotubbs said:

rottenborough said:

Samuel Tombs
@samueltombs
·
4h
If mortgage rates rise to 6%—as implied by markets’ current expectations for Bank Rate—the average household refinancing a 2yr fixed rate mortgage in the first half of 2023 will see *monthly* repayments jump to £1,490, from £863. Many simply won’t be able to afford this

https://twitter.com/samueltombs

I thought the idea was to borrow what was affordable including potential future rate rises?