Worrying poll findings for Truss from YouGov and R&K – politicalbetting.com

BartholomewRoberts said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

DavidL said:

MISTY said:

The UK has too much debt. Markets are questioning whether the UK can meet all its obligations.

The person who gave Britain too much debt is Rishi Sunak via his furlough scheme.

And we never got around to paying back the debts from the GFC. And now we are borrowing a lot more to pay the gas meter. The idea that our government somehow has the power or capability to protect us from the buffering of an extremely choppy sea simply has to stop before it is too late. It is ultimately delusional.

Then why are you so insistent on propping up the pound? Why not allow it to find its 'true' valuation, let manufacturers and the tourism industry benefit, and let imports and foreign holidays get more expensive? It will also reduce the options for Government regarding new debt, and reduce the value of old debt. And when the economy really recovers (as it did after the ERM), the recovery will be genuine.

For once I agree totally with you.

A freely floating exchange rate should be left to reach whatever new equilibrium it reaches. Propping it up is just throwing good money after bad.

The UK has overspent for decades. A reckoning is inevitable.

BartholomewRoberts said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

DavidL said:

MISTY said:

The UK has too much debt. Markets are questioning whether the UK can meet all its obligations.

The person who gave Britain too much debt is Rishi Sunak via his furlough scheme.

And we never got around to paying back the debts from the GFC. And now we are borrowing a lot more to pay the gas meter. The idea that our government somehow has the power or capability to protect us from the buffering of an extremely choppy sea simply has to stop before it is too late. It is ultimately delusional.

Then why are you so insistent on propping up the pound? Why not allow it to find its 'true' valuation, let manufacturers and the tourism industry benefit, and let imports and foreign holidays get more expensive? It will also reduce the options for Government regarding new debt, and reduce the value of old debt. And when the economy really recovers (as it did after the ERM), the recovery will be genuine.

For once I agree totally with you.

A freely floating exchange rate should be left to reach whatever new equilibrium it reaches. Propping it up is just throwing good money after bad.

The UK has overspent for decades. A reckoning is inevitable.

rottenborough said:

And let's remind ourselves that the Party did this to themselves. The membership voted Truss over the adult in the room and they will pay the price in losing power.

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

Somehow this is Labour's fault

Carnyx said:

noneoftheabove said:

SouthamObserver said:

On 23rd November - if he has not been forced to do it before (and assuming he’s still there) - Kwarteng will have no choice but to announce huge cuts in public spending. It’s hard to see how those further tax cuts trailed at the weekend can now happen either.

Double digit inflation with the triple lock for the client vote, war in Ukraine, ambulances can't unload patients into the hospitals, every man, woman and dog on a strike rotation, good luck in finding enough diversity officers and wasteful admin staff to make the slightest dent in the numbers needed.

Especially as it is often very much cheaper to have a competent admin person. Vide what was being said about expensive professionals doing their own admin in universities by @Selebian I think.

And, in the longer term, what our PB Tories love to decry as diversity officers and other HR persons are often vital in reducing the risk of serious disputes and lawsuits througch training or other interventions.

Carnyx said:

noneoftheabove said:

SouthamObserver said:

On 23rd November - if he has not been forced to do it before (and assuming he’s still there) - Kwarteng will have no choice but to announce huge cuts in public spending. It’s hard to see how those further tax cuts trailed at the weekend can now happen either.

Double digit inflation with the triple lock for the client vote, war in Ukraine, ambulances can't unload patients into the hospitals, every man, woman and dog on a strike rotation, good luck in finding enough diversity officers and wasteful admin staff to make the slightest dent in the numbers needed.

Especially as it is often very much cheaper to have a competent admin person. Vide what was being said about expensive professionals doing their own admin in universities by @Selebian I think.

And, in the longer term, what our PB Tories love to decry as diversity officers and other HR persons are often vital in reducing the risk of serious disputes and lawsuits througch training or other interventions.

noneoftheabove said:

Carnyx said:

noneoftheabove said:

SouthamObserver said:

On 23rd November - if he has not been forced to do it before (and assuming he’s still there) - Kwarteng will have no choice but to announce huge cuts in public spending. It’s hard to see how those further tax cuts trailed at the weekend can now happen either.

Double digit inflation with the triple lock for the client vote, war in Ukraine, ambulances can't unload patients into the hospitals, every man, woman and dog on a strike rotation, good luck in finding enough diversity officers and wasteful admin staff to make the slightest dent in the numbers needed.

Especially as it is often very much cheaper to have a competent admin person. Vide what was being said about expensive professionals doing their own admin in universities by @Selebian I think.

And, in the longer term, what our PB Tories love to decry as diversity officers and other HR persons are often vital in reducing the risk of serious disputes and lawsuits througch training or other interventions.

I know, I know. They don't though.

BartholomewRoberts said:

The people who've suddenly discovered inflation in the past twelve months who are suddenly concerned would be more credible if they'd had a proper handle on inflation in house prices etc for the past couple of decades.

In house costs the average inflation rate is over 6% compound annual price growth, over decades.

That's no better than CPI 6%.

fox327 said:

londonpubman said:

Please

Just get rid of Liz and Kwasi now. Before the whole country is ruined permanently

💙

And don't let the Tory membership anywhere near the decision as to who the replacement PM is... .

MPs are elected by the public to make these decisions, not Tory party members.

Scott_xP said:

BREAKING: Labour members have backed a motion calling for proportional representation. First time a major party represented in the UK parliament has suggested ditching first past the post.
https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1574443496064401410

PedestrianRock said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

The people who've suddenly discovered inflation in the past twelve months who are suddenly concerned would be more credible if they'd had a proper handle on inflation in house prices etc for the past couple of decades.

In house costs the average inflation rate is over 6% compound annual price growth, over decades.

That's no better than CPI 6%.

This is quite the strawman, no? I think you’ll find that most people currently worried about inflation would also want something done about crazy house price growth, and yet, given that’s been a huge problem for many years now, it’s not the news story at the top of the agenda. It’s been many years where we’ve come to accept that as a problem that for various reasons (NIMBYism, successive parties not wanting to jeopardise house prices, etc etc)

If we were experiencing high inflation on everything except housing, but rents were becoming more affordable and huge swathes of affordable homes were being built, that would be one thing (whether or not that’s simultaneously realistic, I’m not so sure).

People’s anxiety about the current situation comes because we are having historic levels of inflation after years of many people (particularly the young) being unavailable to get onto the housing ladder easily. So this compounds their existing issues.

I believe I’ve seen you post before that we need to embark on a mass house-building programme - if so, on that we can agree, as can a lot of others who are concerned about inflation. I also recognise it isn’t just as simple as ‘Build more houses’ but I doubt there are many critics of the current government’s inflation policy that absolutely love what housing is like in this country (save for say, remainer Tories who are also massive BTL Landlords… you’d imagine they’d continue to vote Tory regardless, though)

Scott_xP said:

BREAKING: Labour members have backed a motion calling for proportional representation. First time a major party represented in the UK parliament has suggested ditching first past the post.
https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1574443496064401410

jonny83 said:

Well I think I'm fucked. Had an offer on my first ever house accepted on Friday, just trying to get everything sorted/the ball rolling and I have an appointment with my Mortgage advisor on Wednesday. Was looking for a fixed rate for 5 years and it sounds like all the major lenders Halifax etc are pulling their products.

Going into the meeting on Wednesday with a completely different mindset now and expectation that they will tell me news which means I cannot proceed any further.

I feel completely beaten.

jonny83 said:

Well I think I'm fucked. Had an offer on my first ever house accepted on Friday, just trying to get everything sorted/the ball rolling and I have an appointment with my Mortgage advisor on Wednesday. Was looking for a fixed rate for 5 years and it sounds like all the major lenders Halifax etc are pulling their products.

Going into the meeting on Wednesday with a completely different mindset now and expectation that they will tell me news which means I cannot proceed any further.

I feel completely beaten.

jonny83 said:

Well I think I'm fucked. Had an offer on my first ever house accepted on Friday, just trying to get everything sorted/the ball rolling and I have an appointment with my Mortgage advisor on Wednesday. Was looking for a fixed rate for 5 years and it sounds like all the major lenders Halifax etc are pulling their products.

Going into the meeting on Wednesday with a completely different mindset now and expectation that they will tell me news which means I cannot proceed any further.

I feel completely beaten.

williamglenn said:

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

Somehow this is Labour's fault

It's Blair and Brown's fault for creating the structural problems, and it's Cameron and Osborne's fault for not not fixing them when they had the chance. If we are now facing a reckoning, it goes back to the period before the financial crisis.

TimS said:

Beibheirli_C said:

fox327 said:

londonpubman said:

Please

Just get rid of Liz and Kwasi now. Before the whole country is ruined permanently

💙

And don't let the Tory membership anywhere near the decision as to who the replacement PM is... .

MPs are elected by the public to make these decisions, not Tory party members.

Then the same should be true for Labour and the Lib Dems. The membership should have no part in leader selections.

Good luck with that! They are all doing it.

It's different for the Lib Dems (and Greens, PC etc) because there aren't enough MPs to form much of an electorate in their own right, and there are senior members of the party who are not MPs - sometimes more senior than the people with seats in Westminster who may for example have recently got lucky in a byelection.

I agree that the two big parties have shot themselves in the foot with membership votes, though the MPs haven't always played a blinder either. See T May coronation or the fact they put forward Corbyn in the first place "to widen the debate".

Scott_xP said:

BREAKING: Labour members have backed a motion calling for proportional representation. First time a major party represented in the UK parliament has suggested ditching first past the post.
https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1574443496064401410

jonny83 said:

Well I think I'm fucked. Had an offer on my first ever house accepted on Friday, just trying to get everything sorted/the ball rolling and I have an appointment with my Mortgage advisor on Wednesday. Was looking for a fixed rate for 5 years and it sounds like all the major lenders Halifax etc are pulling their products.

Going into the meeting on Wednesday with a completely different mindset now and expectation that they will tell me news which means I cannot proceed any further.

I feel completely beaten.

jonny83 said:

Well I think I'm fucked. Had an offer on my first ever house accepted on Friday, just trying to get everything sorted/the ball rolling and I have an appointment with my Mortgage advisor on Wednesday. Was looking for a fixed rate for 5 years and it sounds like all the major lenders Halifax etc are pulling their products.

Going into the meeting on Wednesday with a completely different mindset now and expectation that they will tell me news which means I cannot proceed any further.

I feel completely beaten.

Cicero said:

williamglenn said:

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

Somehow this is Labour's fault

It's Blair and Brown's fault for creating the structural problems, and it's Cameron and Osborne's fault for not not fixing them when they had the chance. If we are now facing a reckoning, it goes back to the period before the financial crisis.

Even were that true, and it is frankly debatable, no one cares, because they are so utterly utterly sick of the Tories.

Trading over the past couple of sessions is not actually as bad as it could be. In fact Sterling could test parity and then if that breaks it could even start to trade well below for quite a while unless sentiment changes. The markets are deeply unhappy that the OBR is being totally ignored and they increasingly regard the cabal in power as a bunch of arrogant and incompetent tossers. This is now as much about psychology as fundamentals, but since both are bad, the markets could simply pack up and leave. There is an awful lot of ruin in a nation, but the productive capacity of the UK is pretty screwed: dismal infrastructure, patchy basic education and an increasingly squalid public realm.

Cool Britannia it certainly ain´t.

One particular bug bear for me is the state of NHS dentistry. What kind of contempt do you have to have for your fellow citizens in order to condemn them to a lifetime of pain and health problems because you think that having healthy teeth is a cosmetic issue and so everyone should pay thousands of Pounds for basic treatment, even for their kids? What kind of pessimism must you hold to believe that unless education trains you to be an accountant then it is irrelevant and unjustified for those who can not afford it. The whole world of imagination and creativity, which creates massively more jobs than accountancy, not to mention significantly enriching all our lives is dismissed with a philistine ignorance that is simply contemptible.

It is not just that they are morons, they are shits as well.

eek said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

IshmaelZ said:

Lab maj in to basically 2/1, not the bargain it was 2 weeks ago but still pretty good

Ish,

What we really need on here is someone with a very good grip on political sentiment in Scotland.

If there is any sign of Labour winning even a handful of seats there, the OM is definitely on. Sadly and strangely, PB has always lacked voices from the Scottish Labour Left so it remains hard to tell what, if any, pick up there is in Labour's fortunes there.

I think PB has more Mebyon Kernow posters than ScotLabs.

I still don't see Labour winning seats in Scotland for 2 different reasons.

1 - Independence
2 - SNP policies often match Labours to the extent you can replace 1 with the other and you wouldn't notice.

IshmaelZ said:

Cicero said:

moonshine said:

Cicero said:

williamglenn said:

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

Somehow this is Labour's fault

It's Blair and Brown's fault for creating the structural problems, and it's Cameron and Osborne's fault for not not fixing them when they had the chance. If we are now facing a reckoning, it goes back to the period before the financial crisis.

One particular bug bear for me is the state of NHS dentistry. What kind of contempt do you have to have for your fellow citizens in order to condemn them to a lifetime of pain and health problems because you think that having healthy teeth is a cosmetic issue and so everyone should pay thousands of Pounds for basic treatment, even for their kids?

If you can’t be arsed to brush your teeth after drinking Fanta then pay for your own bloody fillings.

Personally I don´t have any. But then I had free access to an NHS dentist throughout my childhood.

So did I (and no fanta) and I have bloody terrible teeth. Lots of people just have. This looks like victim blaming in its purest form.

Nigelb said:

Scott_xP said:

BREAKING: Labour members have backed a motion calling for proportional representation. First time a major party represented in the UK parliament has suggested ditching first past the post.
https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1574443496064401410

I note John McDonnell, twitted by @Richard_Nabavi in the last thread, is a strong and fairly recent convert to the idea.
Which is very decent of him, since it wold ensure a Corbyn or Truss type government would be unlikely to be in power.

Interviewed on the Today program this morning, he said he thought it undemocratic that FPTP effectively enabled an extreme faction of one of the two major parties to hijack power, when they represented only a fraction of the population.

IshmaelZ said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

IshmaelZ said:

Lab maj in to basically 2/1, not the bargain it was 2 weeks ago but still pretty good

Ish,

What we really need on here is someone with a very good grip on political sentiment in Scotland.

If there is any sign of Labour winning even a handful of seats there, the OM is definitely on. Sadly and strangely, PB has always lacked voices from the Scottish Labour Left so it remains hard to tell what, if any, pick up there is in Labour's fortunes there.

I think PB has more Mebyon Kernow posters than ScotLabs.

true dat. A Scon would be good too, which I think @Easterross was when he was around. Always had a soft spot for Scons since a bet on I think 10+ seats in GE 2017 at 10/1 pulled me out of my con maj bet and left me pretty much even.

Carnyx said:

eek said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

IshmaelZ said:

Lab maj in to basically 2/1, not the bargain it was 2 weeks ago but still pretty good

Ish,

What we really need on here is someone with a very good grip on political sentiment in Scotland.

If there is any sign of Labour winning even a handful of seats there, the OM is definitely on. Sadly and strangely, PB has always lacked voices from the Scottish Labour Left so it remains hard to tell what, if any, pick up there is in Labour's fortunes there.

I think PB has more Mebyon Kernow posters than ScotLabs.

I still don't see Labour winning seats in Scotland for 2 different reasons.

1 - Independence
2 - SNP policies often match Labours to the extent you can replace 1 with the other and you wouldn't notice.

3 - Mr Starmer is looking more and more like a Tory leader in his visual iconography (as well as his statements about indyrefs, of course). But that simply reflects the fact he's trying to appeal to two very different populations north and south of the border.

FrankBooth said:

So I'm fixed rate on my mortgage for the next 18 months and have about 30k savings. What should I do?

Can we expect savings rates to rise with interest rates or will the banks need a big gap to protect all their losses.

Pulpstar said:

jonny83 said:

Well I think I'm fucked. Had an offer on my first ever house accepted on Friday, just trying to get everything sorted/the ball rolling and I have an appointment with my Mortgage advisor on Wednesday. Was looking for a fixed rate for 5 years and it sounds like all the major lenders Halifax etc are pulling their products.

Going into the meeting on Wednesday with a completely different mindset now and expectation that they will tell me news which means I cannot proceed any further.

I feel completely beaten.

How old are you ?

If you're 39 (As your username suggests) then Nationwide will let ou mortgage till your 75th birthday which will help keep repayments lower.

williamglenn said:

Cicero said:

williamglenn said:

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

Somehow this is Labour's fault

It's Blair and Brown's fault for creating the structural problems, and it's Cameron and Osborne's fault for not not fixing them when they had the chance. If we are now facing a reckoning, it goes back to the period before the financial crisis.

Even were that true, and it is frankly debatable, no one cares, because they are so utterly utterly sick of the Tories.

Trading over the past couple of sessions is not actually as bad as it could be. In fact Sterling could test parity and then if that breaks it could even start to trade well below for quite a while unless sentiment changes. The markets are deeply unhappy that the OBR is being totally ignored and they increasingly regard the cabal in power as a bunch of arrogant and incompetent tossers. This is now as much about psychology as fundamentals, but since both are bad, the markets could simply pack up and leave. There is an awful lot of ruin in a nation, but the productive capacity of the UK is pretty screwed: dismal infrastructure, patchy basic education and an increasingly squalid public realm.

Cool Britannia it certainly ain´t.

One particular bug bear for me is the state of NHS dentistry. What kind of contempt do you have to have for your fellow citizens in order to condemn them to a lifetime of pain and health problems because you think that having healthy teeth is a cosmetic issue and so everyone should pay thousands of Pounds for basic treatment, even for their kids? What kind of pessimism must you hold to believe that unless education trains you to be an accountant then it is irrelevant and unjustified for those who can not afford it. The whole world of imagination and creativity, which creates massively more jobs than accountancy, not to mention significantly enriching all our lives is dismissed with a philistine ignorance that is simply contemptible.

It is not just that they are morons, they are shits as well.

Having the correct analysis of the problems instead of a partisan rant does matter, otherwise a change of government won't result in the step change we need.