Worrying poll findings for Truss from YouGov and R&K – politicalbetting.com
LAB lead up to 13% with @RedfieldWilton Labour 44% (+2)Conservative 31% (-1)Liberal Democrat 11% (-1)Green 6% (+1)SNP 4% (–)Reform UK 2% (-1)Other 1% (–)
Comments
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First?????
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Polling really should be about the last thing to worry about right now.2
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FPT:
Ed Conway
@EdConwaySky
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2m
UK govt bond yields just spiked even higher.
10 year now up to 4.24%
This is NOT the reaction HMT & BoE would have wanted to their statements.
Still early doors. Let’s see what happens next...
Chart shows you the 10yr’s movements so far today0 -
How brutal is Truss?
She could sack Kwarsi tomorrow and try and blame him for it all. But may not work as the basics of this were the fantasies that won her the membership vote from economically illiterate saloon-bar dwelling tory membership.2 -
Queen's funeral seems years ago...0
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UK LENDER SKIPTON BUILDING SOCIETY WITHDRAWS NEW MORTGAGE BUSINESS PRODUCT RANGE WITH IMMEDIATE EFFECT - EMAIL SENT TO BROKERS https://twitter.com/DeItaone/status/15744299230826577921
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Time for the Conservatives to knife her, I think. That is what they do, traditionally, with a failing leader.0
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Reactions: Britain's pound crumbles to record lows in firesale of UK assets http://reut.rs/3xPRPwP https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1574432630484996098/photo/10
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A former Tory SPAD gets in touch about the special fiscal operation.
‘Almost like Liz Truss likes being humiliated, can’t get more humiliating for a PM than the country having a currency and borrowing crisis on their watch.’0 -
But who would willingly replace Kwarsi?rottenborough said:How brutal is Truss?
She could sack Kwarsi tomorrow and try and blame him for it all. But may not work as the basics of this were the fantasies that won her the membership vote from economically illiterate saloon-bar dwelling tory membership.
The reality is if Truss removed Kwarsi she would be going as soon as the 1922 committee could organise a vote...0 -
Sam Freedman
@Samfr
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1h
For the first time in this electoral cycle the betting markets see a Labour majority as more likely than a Tory one.
https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/15744157541114675210 -
FPT
wooliedyed said:
Putin gives Snowden Russian citizenship
So is he off to Ukraine tomorrow with a rusty AK47? Good luck!5 -
Well, @Leon did point to her taste in jewellery...TheScreamingEagles said:A former Tory SPAD gets in touch about the special fiscal operation.
‘Almost like Liz Truss likes being humiliated, can’t get more humiliating for a PM than the country having a currency and borrowing crisis on their watch.’3 -
Zharhawi seems always up for being CoE for a week or two.eek said:
But who would willingly replace Kwarsi?rottenborough said:How brutal is Truss?
She could sack Kwarsi tomorrow and try and blame him for it all. But may not work as the basics of this were the fantasies that won her the membership vote from economically illiterate saloon-bar dwelling tory membership.
The reality is if Truss removed Kwarsi she would be going as soon as the 1922 committee could organise a vote...
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It's Peston but also true
Robert Peston
@Peston
The Bank of England signals we are in a crisis after the emergency budget and says it won’t hesitate to put up interest rates - and the pound falls again. Which shows the Bank and Chancellor both have serious credibility problems. Worrying1 -
Mortgage market moves seem very significant - a swathe of banks are, we believe, pulling their fixed rate deals tonight and will return to market at more expensive prices.
This could be very consequential.
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/15744328669850255362 -
The Queen got out just in time. Charles can watch the UK crash and burn under Truss-o-nomicsrottenborough said:Queen's funeral seems years ago...
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The UK has too much debt. Markets are questioning whether the UK can meet all its obligations.
The person who gave Britain too much debt is Rishi Sunak via his furlough scheme.
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The Truss bounce has been and gone.
Labour majority.0 -
Analysts starting to give it 48 hours before BoE buckles and has emergency meeting.
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Virgin has also done so from 8pm (to provide time for part processed applications to be submitted)Scott_xP said:UK LENDER SKIPTON BUILDING SOCIETY WITHDRAWS NEW MORTGAGE BUSINESS PRODUCT RANGE WITH IMMEDIATE EFFECT - EMAIL SENT TO BROKERS https://twitter.com/DeItaone/status/1574429923082657792
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He assumes that she either knows or cares what that means. I am not convinced that she does.TheScreamingEagles said:A former Tory SPAD gets in touch about the special fiscal operation.
‘Almost like Liz Truss likes being humiliated, can’t get more humiliating for a PM than the country having a currency and borrowing crisis on their watch.’0 -
Starmer leads Truss by 4%.
At this moment, which of the following individuals do British voters think would be the better PM for the United Kingdom? (25 September)
Keir Starmer 38% (+3)
Liz Truss 34% (-6)
Don't Know 28% (+3)
Changes +/- 21 September
That is a disaster for Truss. Starmer is soaring.0 -
Not been following it closely today - are the expectations that the govt actually have votes for the budget to pass?0
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Yeah, this really isn’t good news now that lenders are pulling their fixed rates.
Truss doesn’t have the personality or credibility to carry through this sort of agenda. The majority of us on here could see that Truss would be a disaster. She is a disaster3 -
No. The markets weren't questioning the debt issue until Truss got into office and started playing fantasy island economics.MISTY said:The UK has too much debt. Markets are questioning whether the UK can meet all its obligations.
The person who gave Britain too much debt is Rishi Sunak via his furlough scheme.
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Please
Just get rid of Liz and Kwasi now. Before the whole country is ruined permanently
💙3 -
Tory polling in middle england about to become dire.Scott_xP said:Mortgage market moves seem very significant - a swathe of banks are, we believe, pulling their fixed rate deals tonight and will return to market at more expensive prices.
This could be very consequential.
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/15744328669850255361 -
A Conservative MP gives a verdict on Kwarteng: "Tax cuts in a traditional Tory way have always got to be self-financing. He makes Tony Barber look like Mr Gradgrind. It’s utterly absurd."
https://twitter.com/rowenamason/status/15744333370490552333 -
It isn't a Budget.noneoftheabove said:Not been following it closely today - are the expectations that the govt actually have votes for the budget to pass?
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... because the BoE actually did hesitate to put up interest rates. They should have gone up this morning.eek said:It's Peston but also true
Robert Peston
@Peston
The Bank of England signals we are in a crisis after the emergency budget and says it won’t hesitate to put up interest rates - and the pound falls again. Which shows the Bank and Chancellor both have serious credibility problems. Worrying2 -
But Sunak at least tried to show how he’d balance the books / reduce the deficit. I even recall him delaying reductions in income tax reductions precisely because he understood the marketsMISTY said:The UK has too much debt. Markets are questioning whether the UK can meet all its obligations.
The person who gave Britain too much debt is Rishi Sunak via his furlough scheme.
So having too much debt, truss and Kwasi decided to say “let’s cut taxes and borrow shit loads more”rottenborough said:
No. The markets weren't questioning the debt issue until Truss got into office and started playing fantasy island economics.MISTY said:The UK has too much debt. Markets are questioning whether the UK can meet all its obligations.
The person who gave Britain too much debt is Rishi Sunak via his furlough scheme.
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Not the person or people who invented Brexit, the chancellor who refused windfall taxes, committed to more tax cuts in future, and boosted defence spending ? Or the opaquely funded Institute of Economic Affairs, and their new pet government ?MISTY said:The UK has too much debt. Markets are questioning whether the UK can meet all its obligations.
The person who gave Britain too much debt is Rishi Sunak via his furlough scheme.
Have you had a look at the cost of the German pandemic bailout recently, Mr Misty ?2 -
Damn... bye bye fixed rate mortgages. That will definitely crash the housing market.Scott_xP said:UK LENDER SKIPTON BUILDING SOCIETY WITHDRAWS NEW MORTGAGE BUSINESS PRODUCT RANGE WITH IMMEDIATE EFFECT - EMAIL SENT TO BROKERS https://twitter.com/DeItaone/status/1574429923082657792
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Special kamikwasi operation or whatever it is called.dixiedean said:
It isn't a Budget.noneoftheabove said:Not been following it closely today - are the expectations that the govt actually have votes for the budget to pass?
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No. Sunak's high taxes were not raising the money he wanted. Nowhere near. We would, essentially, be in the same position if he had won.rottenborough said:
No. The markets weren't questioning the debt issue until Truss got into office and started playing fantasy island economics.MISTY said:The UK has too much debt. Markets are questioning whether the UK can meet all its obligations.
The person who gave Britain too much debt is Rishi Sunak via his furlough scheme.
Either Sunak or Truss would be looking at huge spending cuts at some juncture. There is no alternative.0 -
Not a budget, so unclear how they vote on it. As individual measures maybe?noneoftheabove said:Not been following it closely today - are the expectations that the govt actually have votes for the budget to pass?
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This is the Truss honeymoon bounce in full glory.CorrectHorseBattery3 said:The Truss bounce has been and gone.
.0 -
Somehow this is Labour's fault0
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There is. Large wealth taxes on boomers.MISTY said:
No. Sunak's high taxes were not raising the money he wanted. Nowhere near. We would, essentially, be in the same position if he had won.rottenborough said:
No. The markets weren't questioning the debt issue until Truss got into office and started playing fantasy island economics.MISTY said:The UK has too much debt. Markets are questioning whether the UK can meet all its obligations.
The person who gave Britain too much debt is Rishi Sunak via his furlough scheme.
Either Sunak or Truss would be looking at huge spending cuts at some juncture. There is no alternative.5 -
Do you think the changes the Chancellor announced this week will generally benefit wealthier people more, poorer people more, or benefit both equally?
Wealthier people: 63%
Poorer people: 3%
Both equally: 9%
Labour's lines have worked superbly.1 -
I honestly think that they would be better doing it now rather than getting dragged to the table. It is inevitable and a consequence of an incompetent Bank being so far behind the curve along with an incontinent Chancellor who seems to have less idea of what he is doing every time he opens his mouth.rottenborough said:Analysts starting to give it 48 hours before BoE buckles and has emergency meeting.
This will not be the last increase but it may buy a few hours to work out what the hell they are going to do next.0 -
No, it's because the chancellor has borrowed billions to cut taxes with no prospect of those tax cuts raising trend growth or now, with the prospect of rate rises, near term growth.MISTY said:The UK has too much debt. Markets are questioning whether the UK can meet all its obligations.
The person who gave Britain too much debt is Rishi Sunak via his furlough scheme.
If the tax cuts were funded with spending cuts and tax rises elsewhere there'd be nothing like this kind of market reaction. The fact that we have an 8% current budget deficit and a chancellor who is going to push that up with no plan to bring it into balance is the killer for us. The UK relies on the kindness of strangers, as Carney put it, now those strangers are wondering whether the UK is still a good bet.6 -
Alastair Meeks @AlastairMeeksJonathan said:
This is the Truss honeymoon bounce in full glory.CorrectHorseBattery3 said:The Truss bounce has been and gone.
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The kind of honeymoon normally seen on Married At First Sight.8 -
The evidence was that Sunak was failing, and failing badly. The tax take was nowhere near what he was expecting.Razedabode said:
But Sunak at least tried to show how he’d balance the books / reduce the deficit. I even recall him delaying reductions in income tax reductions precisely because he understood the marketsMISTY said:The UK has too much debt. Markets are questioning whether the UK can meet all its obligations.
The person who gave Britain too much debt is Rishi Sunak via his furlough scheme.
So having too much debt, truss and Kwasi decided to say “let’s cut taxes and borrow shit loads more”rottenborough said:
No. The markets weren't questioning the debt issue until Truss got into office and started playing fantasy island economics.MISTY said:The UK has too much debt. Markets are questioning whether the UK can meet all its obligations.
The person who gave Britain too much debt is Rishi Sunak via his furlough scheme.
With taxes already the highest in 70 years, his only option was spending cuts.0 -
It's Blair and Brown's fault for creating the structural problems, and it's Cameron and Osborne's fault for not not fixing them when they had the chance. If we are now facing a reckoning, it goes back to the period before the financial crisis.CorrectHorseBattery3 said:Somehow this is Labour's fault
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interesting thread from ex Treasury permanent secretary: https://twitter.com/nickmacpherson2/status/15744316123889991690
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Crisis, what crisis !TheScreamingEagles said:A former Tory SPAD gets in touch about the special fiscal operation.
‘Almost like Liz Truss likes being humiliated, can’t get more humiliating for a PM than the country having a currency and borrowing crisis on their watch.’0 -
ROFL you've been in Government 12 YEARS!williamglenn said:
It's Blair and Brown's fault for creating the structural problems, and it's Cameron and Osborne's fault for not not fixing them when they had the chance. If we are now facing a reckoning, it goes back to the period before the financial crisis.CorrectHorseBattery3 said:Somehow this is Labour's fault
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Slackbladder said:
Damn... bye bye fixed rate mortgages. That will definitely crash the housing market.Scott_xP said:UK LENDER SKIPTON BUILDING SOCIETY WITHDRAWS NEW MORTGAGE BUSINESS PRODUCT RANGE WITH IMMEDIATE EFFECT - EMAIL SENT TO BROKERS https://twitter.com/DeItaone/status/1574429923082657792
About bloody time if so. But I'm not as hopeful as you are.1 -
Truss has lots of problems but suggesting she is knifed is out of order - remember Jo Cox and David AmessClippP said:Time for the Conservatives to knife her, I think. That is what they do, traditionally, with a failing leader.
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No I haven't!CorrectHorseBattery3 said:
ROFL you've been in Government 12 YEARS!williamglenn said:
It's Blair and Brown's fault for creating the structural problems, and it's Cameron and Osborne's fault for not not fixing them when they had the chance. If we are now facing a reckoning, it goes back to the period before the financial crisis.CorrectHorseBattery3 said:Somehow this is Labour's fault
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And we never got around to paying back the debts from the GFC. And now we are borrowing a lot more to pay the gas meter. The idea that our government somehow has the power or capability to protect us from the buffering of an extremely choppy sea simply has to stop before it is too late. It is ultimately delusional.MISTY said:The UK has too much debt. Markets are questioning whether the UK can meet all its obligations.
The person who gave Britain too much debt is Rishi Sunak via his furlough scheme.2 -
Its the storyline for the current Tory party...
British father, 30, SPLITS from Ukrainian refugee accusing her of 'irrational behaviour, not handling her drink and stabbing a wall' - just four months after he dumped his partner of 10 years and mother of his two children to be with her
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11250951/British-father-30-SPLITS-Ukrainian-refugee-affair-with.html0 -
"Clearing up Labour's mess", indeed.
What a great job they've done of that.0 -
The BoE can't fix this mess, because it's primarily a Treasury mess. Sure, the BoE can increase interest rates and that might stabilise sterling for a bit, but the markets still won't be reassured that the government is going to get the public finances back under some semblance of control.DavidL said:
I honestly think that they would be better doing it now rather than getting dragged to the table. It is inevitable and a consequence of an incompetent Bank being so far behind the curve along with an incontinent Chancellor who seems to have less idea of what he is doing every time he opens his mouth.rottenborough said:Analysts starting to give it 48 hours before BoE buckles and has emergency meeting.
This will not be the last increase but it may buy a few hours to work out what the hell they are going to do next.1 -
As bad as Gemma and Matt.Richard_Nabavi said:
Alastair Meeks @AlastairMeeksJonathan said:
This is the Truss honeymoon bounce in full glory.CorrectHorseBattery3 said:The Truss bounce has been and gone.
.
The kind of honeymoon normally seen on Married At First Sight.0 -
Another question, if we were really determined to do the Truss/Kwarteng tax cuts, most of which don't apply until April, why did we not borrow as much as we could have done on long term fixed rates prior to announcing them. We could have been converting our debt over onto long term fixes for another six months before the market realised we were borrowing to make the rich richer, instead of paying the much higher rates we will do now? What was the rush?0
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Sunak did not rely on the kindness of strangers, he relied on Bailey. The Sunak 'plan' to bring the finances into balance was clearly failing, as the borrowing numbers over the leadership election period showed.MaxPB said:
No, it's because the chancellor has borrowed billions to cut taxes with no prospect of those tax cuts raising trend growth or now, with the prospect of rate rises, near term growth.MISTY said:The UK has too much debt. Markets are questioning whether the UK can meet all its obligations.
The person who gave Britain too much debt is Rishi Sunak via his furlough scheme.
If the tax cuts were funded with spending cuts and tax rises elsewhere there'd be nothing like this kind of market reaction. The fact that we have an 8% current budget deficit and a chancellor who is going to push that up with no plan to bring it into balance is the killer for us. The UK relies on the kindness of strangers, as Carney put it, now those strangers are wondering whether the UK is still a good bet.
Sunak would have been forced into massive spending cuts sooner, rather than later, given he could not increase taxes more. Debt would still be ballooning except the economy would be pitching into recession.1 -
In all seriousness, that's genuinely my view; it's not just spin. Since Brown there's been a new version of the post-war consensus based on managing the business cycle and using asset bubbles and immigration to mask a declining growth rate.williamglenn said:
No I haven't!CorrectHorseBattery3 said:
ROFL you've been in Government 12 YEARS!williamglenn said:
It's Blair and Brown's fault for creating the structural problems, and it's Cameron and Osborne's fault for not not fixing them when they had the chance. If we are now facing a reckoning, it goes back to the period before the financial crisis.CorrectHorseBattery3 said:Somehow this is Labour's fault
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Indeed and Lagarde saying just now the ECB are to have a series of rate hikesDavidL said:
I honestly think that they would be better doing it now rather than getting dragged to the table. It is inevitable and a consequence of an incompetent Bank being so far behind the curve along with an incontinent Chancellor who seems to have less idea of what he is doing every time he opens his mouth.rottenborough said:Analysts starting to give it 48 hours before BoE buckles and has emergency meeting.
This will not be the last increase but it may buy a few hours to work out what the hell they are going to do next.0 -
yes a budget deficit of that size thrusts us into greece territory in a few years...at that point there is no alternative but brutal spending cutsMaxPB said:
No, it's because the chancellor has borrowed billions to cut taxes with no prospect of those tax cuts raising trend growth or now, with the prospect of rate rises, near term growth.MISTY said:The UK has too much debt. Markets are questioning whether the UK can meet all its obligations.
The person who gave Britain too much debt is Rishi Sunak via his furlough scheme.
If the tax cuts were funded with spending cuts and tax rises elsewhere there'd be nothing like this kind of market reaction. The fact that we have an 8% current budget deficit and a chancellor who is going to push that up with no plan to bring it into balance is the killer for us. The UK relies on the kindness of strangers, as Carney put it, now those strangers are wondering whether the UK is still a good bet.0 -
Johnson's garbage about 'putting our arms around the people of Britain' was always just that...as well as his titanic bullsh8t about the massive power of the UK treasury.DavidL said:
And we never got around to paying back the debts from the GFC. And now we are borrowing a lot more to pay the gas meter. The idea that our government somehow has the power or capability to protect us from the buffering of an extremely choppy sea simply has to stop before it is too late. It is ultimately delusional.MISTY said:The UK has too much debt. Markets are questioning whether the UK can meet all its obligations.
The person who gave Britain too much debt is Rishi Sunak via his furlough scheme.1 -
November is too far away, I don't understand the logic of that at all. We need a proper budget with spending allocations by the end of October and what taxes will be going up to pay for the recent cuts. That November plan has gone down very badly in the square mile, that, more than any immediate action by the Bank will weigh on sterling.Richard_Nabavi said:
The BoE can't fix this mess, because it's primarily a Treasury mess. Sure, the BoE can increase interest rates and that might stabilise sterling for a bit, but the markets still won't be reassured that the government is going to get the public finances back under some semblance of control.DavidL said:
I honestly think that they would be better doing it now rather than getting dragged to the table. It is inevitable and a consequence of an incompetent Bank being so far behind the curve along with an incontinent Chancellor who seems to have less idea of what he is doing every time he opens his mouth.rottenborough said:Analysts starting to give it 48 hours before BoE buckles and has emergency meeting.
This will not be the last increase but it may buy a few hours to work out what the hell they are going to do next.
The ship is rudderless and the captain and first mate have set a course that takes it awfully close to an iceberg.1 -
Don't think so, they have never not been a thing. They just don't want to sell them for the next 48 hours while they reprice them. So just bye cheap fixed rate mortgages.Slackbladder said:
Damn... bye bye fixed rate mortgages. That will definitely crash the housing market.Scott_xP said:UK LENDER SKIPTON BUILDING SOCIETY WITHDRAWS NEW MORTGAGE BUSINESS PRODUCT RANGE WITH IMMEDIATE EFFECT - EMAIL SENT TO BROKERS https://twitter.com/DeItaone/status/1574429923082657792
Bailey is an arse, I told him IPT to hike 1% today. Oooh, he is closely monitoring the situation, I feel safer already, as if anyone expected him to be off on his annual leave. Every adult in the country is closely monitoring the situation.
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So many hopes, dreams and aspirations going down the Swanee because fools who thought they knew best didn’t. It is unforgivable.Scott_xP said:Mortgage market moves seem very significant - a swathe of banks are, we believe, pulling their fixed rate deals tonight and will return to market at more expensive prices.
This could be very consequential.
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1574432866985025536
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hence the exploding inequality whilst the boomers in their mortgage free houses think everythings finewilliamglenn said:
In all seriousness, that's genuinely my view; it's not just spin. Since Brown there's been a new version of the post-war consensus based on managing the business cycle and using asset bubbles and immigration to mask a declining growth rate.williamglenn said:
No I haven't!CorrectHorseBattery3 said:
ROFL you've been in Government 12 YEARS!williamglenn said:
It's Blair and Brown's fault for creating the structural problems, and it's Cameron and Osborne's fault for not not fixing them when they had the chance. If we are now facing a reckoning, it goes back to the period before the financial crisis.CorrectHorseBattery3 said:Somehow this is Labour's fault
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Then why are you so insistent on propping up the pound? Why not allow it to find its 'true' valuation, let manufacturers and the tourism industry benefit, and let imports and foreign holidays get more expensive? It will also reduce the options for Government regarding new debt, and reduce the value of old debt. And when the economy really recovers (as it did after the ERM), the recovery will be genuine.DavidL said:
And we never got around to paying back the debts from the GFC. And now we are borrowing a lot more to pay the gas meter. The idea that our government somehow has the power or capability to protect us from the buffering of an extremely choppy sea simply has to stop before it is too late. It is ultimately delusional.MISTY said:The UK has too much debt. Markets are questioning whether the UK can meet all its obligations.
The person who gave Britain too much debt is Rishi Sunak via his furlough scheme.1 -
Surprised it has taken so long.tlg86 said:0 -
On 23rd November - if he has not been forced to do it before (and assuming he’s still there) - Kwarteng will have no choice but to announce huge cuts in public spending. It’s hard to see how those further tax cuts trailed at the weekend can now happen either.0
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Thats a very good question. I'm not sure that a central bank has ever managed the yield curve in that way. However now you mention it all central banks should be looking to roll out the maturity of their debt in such circumstances. I guess the BoE role is soon to be free. Stick your hat in the ring!noneoftheabove said:Another question, if we were really determined to do the Truss/Kwarteng tax cuts, most of which don't apply until April, why did we not borrow as much as we could have done on long term fixed rates prior to announcing them. We could have been converting our debt over onto long term fixes for another six months before the market realised we were borrowing to make the rich richer, instead of paying the much higher rates we will do now? What was the rush?
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And as you pointed out before the tax changes would make sense if there wasn't so many of them and they hadn't been so badly implemented.MaxPB said:
No, it's because the chancellor has borrowed billions to cut taxes with no prospect of those tax cuts raising trend growth or now, with the prospect of rate rises, near term growth.MISTY said:The UK has too much debt. Markets are questioning whether the UK can meet all its obligations.
The person who gave Britain too much debt is Rishi Sunak via his furlough scheme.
If the tax cuts were funded with spending cuts and tax rises elsewhere there'd be nothing like this kind of market reaction. The fact that we have an 8% current budget deficit and a chancellor who is going to push that up with no plan to bring it into balance is the killer for us. The UK relies on the kindness of strangers, as Carney put it, now those strangers are wondering whether the UK is still a good bet.
IR35 costs money but can easily be argued as an improvement that will enhance the economies ability to react to things quickly.
The NI reversal isn't an easy argument but it gives people more money at the time money is required - it also gives companies more money which may be useful to cover extra costs or given workers another pay rise / one off payment if required.
The Corporation Tax one has the argument low corporation tax is good which by itself is fine. History shows that it removes the incentive for firms to invest so personally a high rate and allowances would have made more sense.
But the 45% cut with the excuse of trickle down economics didn't make sense and didn't have any rational argument behind it.
All combined you can see why the markets decided over the weekend the plan was as naked as the emperor when he wore his new clothes.1 -
hopefully in the future people will pay more attention to risk....the property market in this country is a monstrosity enabled by govt policySouthamObserver said:
So many hopes, dreams and aspirations going down the Swanee because fools who thought they knew best didn’t. It is unforgivable.Scott_xP said:Mortgage market moves seem very significant - a swathe of banks are, we believe, pulling their fixed rate deals tonight and will return to market at more expensive prices.
This could be very consequential.
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/15744328669850255362 -
There's some merit in that view, but it's an argument for genuine supply-side changes, properly thought-through tax reform, better education, not having a trade war with the EU, and a bunch of other longish-term policy initiatives. It doesn't excuse the short-term chaos Truss and Kwarteng have caused.williamglenn said:
In all seriousness, that's genuinely my view; it's not just spin. Since Brown there's been a new version of the post-war consensus based on managing the business cycle and using asset bubbles and immigration to mask a declining growth rate.williamglenn said:
No I haven't!CorrectHorseBattery3 said:
ROFL you've been in Government 12 YEARS!williamglenn said:
It's Blair and Brown's fault for creating the structural problems, and it's Cameron and Osborne's fault for not not fixing them when they had the chance. If we are now facing a reckoning, it goes back to the period before the financial crisis.CorrectHorseBattery3 said:Somehow this is Labour's fault
Your argument is that we should have built a better car, but they are crashing the existing one.2 -
One for the musical theatre / debt market early evening crowd https://twitter.com/GeneralBoles/status/1574436620253569024/photo/1
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Friday was just bizarre, really. It would have been brave for a country that had been running a surplus for the last 30 years. Today is just bonkers. Government spending has to increase by something approaching inflation if they want a work force. It might have been a plan to realise that before deciding to cut your income by so much Kwasi. Just saying. As it is, how the hell does he think that a real terms cut of public spending of 10% is consistent with a growth plan? He is about to induce a major recession.Richard_Nabavi said:
The BoE can't fix this mess, because it's primarily a Treasury mess. Sure, the BoE can increase interest rates and that might stabilise sterling for a bit, but the markets still won't be reassured that the government is going to get the public finances back under some semblance of control.DavidL said:
I honestly think that they would be better doing it now rather than getting dragged to the table. It is inevitable and a consequence of an incompetent Bank being so far behind the curve along with an incontinent Chancellor who seems to have less idea of what he is doing every time he opens his mouth.rottenborough said:Analysts starting to give it 48 hours before BoE buckles and has emergency meeting.
This will not be the last increase but it may buy a few hours to work out what the hell they are going to do next.
But the Bank has not helped. Importing inflation by a falling currency is really not the ideal when the government is boosting demand and consumption on an economy running with full employment, low investment and an insane trading deficit.0 -
If he does, is he on the next bus to Ukraine?tlg86 said:1 -
Safe to say the budget has gone down like a bowl of cold sick then?1
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Close to the iceberg? Kwasi seems to have pointed the ship at the middle of the iceberg and increased the engines to full power....MaxPB said:
November is too far away, I don't understand the logic of that at all. We need a proper budget with spending allocations by the end of October and what taxes will be going up to pay for the recent cuts. That November plan has gone down very badly in the square mile, that, more than any immediate action by the Bank will weigh on sterling.Richard_Nabavi said:
The BoE can't fix this mess, because it's primarily a Treasury mess. Sure, the BoE can increase interest rates and that might stabilise sterling for a bit, but the markets still won't be reassured that the government is going to get the public finances back under some semblance of control.DavidL said:
I honestly think that they would be better doing it now rather than getting dragged to the table. It is inevitable and a consequence of an incompetent Bank being so far behind the curve along with an incontinent Chancellor who seems to have less idea of what he is doing every time he opens his mouth.rottenborough said:Analysts starting to give it 48 hours before BoE buckles and has emergency meeting.
This will not be the last increase but it may buy a few hours to work out what the hell they are going to do next.
The ship is rudderless and the captain and first mate have set a course that takes it awfully close to an iceberg.1 -
The UK runs a current account (not budget) deficit of 6-7% per year. We rely on a net hundred billion of foreign money pouring into the UK economy for job and wealth creation. Without it we would go into a very deep and prolonged recession. Sterling is tanking because those investors have taken fright and are pulling their money and waiting for a discount. @DavidL has been raising the current account deficit for as long as this website has been running and now it's finally reared its ugly head.MISTY said:
Sunak did not rely on the kindness of strangers, he relied on Bailey. The Sunak 'plan' to bring the finances into balance was clearly failing, as the borrowing numbers over the leadership election period showed.MaxPB said:
No, it's because the chancellor has borrowed billions to cut taxes with no prospect of those tax cuts raising trend growth or now, with the prospect of rate rises, near term growth.MISTY said:The UK has too much debt. Markets are questioning whether the UK can meet all its obligations.
The person who gave Britain too much debt is Rishi Sunak via his furlough scheme.
If the tax cuts were funded with spending cuts and tax rises elsewhere there'd be nothing like this kind of market reaction. The fact that we have an 8% current budget deficit and a chancellor who is going to push that up with no plan to bring it into balance is the killer for us. The UK relies on the kindness of strangers, as Carney put it, now those strangers are wondering whether the UK is still a good bet.
Sunak would have been forced into massive spending cuts sooner, rather than later, given he could not increase taxes more. Debt would still be ballooning except the economy would be pitching into recession.3 -
Actual footage of Liz Truss & the UK economy and the financial markets.
If you know this meme then shame on you 😂
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Note that Kwasi has confirmed that the Government is sticking to spending settlements for this spending period.
The SR2021 was announced last October with a maximum of 4% inflation expected. It lasts until 2024/25.
It seems that there will be no increases to department spending to reflect higher inflation of 10%.
This probably means a real terms cut for the NHS etc.
Whilst the government can claim it is not cutting spending, high inflation will cause a real term cut.
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I am sure that most of us (and Alastair) are far too intellectual to watch Married at First Sight.Richard_Nabavi said:
Alastair Meeks @AlastairMeeksJonathan said:
This is the Truss honeymoon bounce in full glory.CorrectHorseBattery3 said:The Truss bounce has been and gone.
.
The kind of honeymoon normally seen on Married At First Sight.
But yes.0 -
Double digit inflation with the triple lock for the client vote, war in Ukraine, ambulances can't unload patients into the hospitals, every man, woman and dog on a strike rotation, good luck in finding enough diversity officers and wasteful admin staff to make the slightest dent in the numbers needed.SouthamObserver said:On 23rd November - if he has not been forced to do it before (and assuming he’s still there) - Kwarteng will have no choice but to announce huge cuts in public spending. It’s hard to see how those further tax cuts trailed at the weekend can now happen either.
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Expectation at work.
No (fixed rate) mortgage offers to be available from UK providers within 48 hours.0 -
(((Dan Hodges)))
@DPJHodges
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57m
If Tory MPs think bankers bonuses and the 45p rate cut are politically toxic, what are they going to think when they’re seen in the context of November’s statement announcing significant public spending cuts.1 -
What is it?DavidL said:
I am sure that most of us (and Alastair) are far too intellectual to watch Married at First Sight.Richard_Nabavi said:
Alastair Meeks @AlastairMeeksJonathan said:
This is the Truss honeymoon bounce in full glory.CorrectHorseBattery3 said:The Truss bounce has been and gone.
.
The kind of honeymoon normally seen on Married At First Sight.
But yes.0 -
For once I agree totally with you.Luckyguy1983 said:
Then why are you so insistent on propping up the pound? Why not allow it to find its 'true' valuation, let manufacturers and the tourism industry benefit, and let imports and foreign holidays get more expensive? It will also reduce the options for Government regarding new debt, and reduce the value of old debt. And when the economy really recovers (as it did after the ERM), the recovery will be genuine.DavidL said:
And we never got around to paying back the debts from the GFC. And now we are borrowing a lot more to pay the gas meter. The idea that our government somehow has the power or capability to protect us from the buffering of an extremely choppy sea simply has to stop before it is too late. It is ultimately delusional.MISTY said:The UK has too much debt. Markets are questioning whether the UK can meet all its obligations.
The person who gave Britain too much debt is Rishi Sunak via his furlough scheme.
A freely floating exchange rate should be left to reach whatever new equilibrium it reaches. Propping it up is just throwing good money after bad.
The UK has overspent for decades. A reckoning is inevitable.1 -
He's already announced large cuts in public spending, hiding behind inflation.SouthamObserver said:On 23rd November - if he has not been forced to do it before (and assuming he’s still there) - Kwarteng will have no choice but to announce huge cuts in public spending. It’s hard to see how those further tax cuts trailed at the weekend can now happen either.
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Looks like we are doomed to a public sector orientated nannying Labour government in perpetuity. Thanks Brexiteers! Cracking job you did to throw away the Tories main USPs of governmental competence and economic sanity2
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Presumably because they thought it would be a political triumph.noneoftheabove said:Another question, if we were really determined to do the Truss/Kwarteng tax cuts, most of which don't apply until April, why did we not borrow as much as we could have done on long term fixed rates prior to announcing them. We could have been converting our debt over onto long term fixes for another six months before the market realised we were borrowing to make the rich richer, instead of paying the much higher rates we will do now? What was the rush?
Maybe they thought it would give them enough of a boost to call a snap election.
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John Rentoul
@JohnRentoul
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11m
Replying to
@RedfieldWilton
First poll after the emergency Budget; if that were a general election it would mean a Labour majority of 70 on new boundaries
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author1 -
Because we need to keep control of inflation. It's as simple as that really.Luckyguy1983 said:
Then why are you so insistent on propping up the pound? Why not allow it to find its 'true' valuation, let manufacturers and the tourism industry benefit, and let imports and foreign holidays get more expensive? It will also reduce the options for Government regarding new debt, and reduce the value of old debt. And when the economy really recovers (as it did after the ERM), the recovery will be genuine.DavidL said:
And we never got around to paying back the debts from the GFC. And now we are borrowing a lot more to pay the gas meter. The idea that our government somehow has the power or capability to protect us from the buffering of an extremely choppy sea simply has to stop before it is too late. It is ultimately delusional.MISTY said:The UK has too much debt. Markets are questioning whether the UK can meet all its obligations.
The person who gave Britain too much debt is Rishi Sunak via his furlough scheme.3 -
The only vaguely plausible political benefit I have heard from this is it forces Labour to say they will raise taxes at the next election. That could also have waited til April. Not sure even the biggest fans of fake Thatcherism thought that removing the 45% rate would be popular in the short term.Chris said:
Presumably because they thought it would be a political triumph.noneoftheabove said:Another question, if we were really determined to do the Truss/Kwarteng tax cuts, most of which don't apply until April, why did we not borrow as much as we could have done on long term fixed rates prior to announcing them. We could have been converting our debt over onto long term fixes for another six months before the market realised we were borrowing to make the rich richer, instead of paying the much higher rates we will do now? What was the rush?
Maybe they thought it would give them enough of a boost to call a snap election.0 -
And don't let the Tory membership anywhere near the decision as to who the replacement PM is... .londonpubman said:Please
Just get rid of Liz and Kwasi now. Before the whole country is ruined permanently
💙
MPs are elected by the public to make these decisions, not Tory party members.1 -
Big shout out to all those who applauded Friday’s budget because it upset all the right people.4
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People forget there is a reason Cameron, May and Johnson governed as Tory-Lite. It's because the general public overall finds the Tory Party repulsive and repellent. Same with hard Labour as well.
It's interesting that in the dying days of the last Labour government the Labour Party retreated to their old socialist ways (and carried it on in opposition, resulting ultimately in their 2019 pasting) and now we see the same in the dying days of this Tory government.
I guess it's like a comfort blanket for a party to retreat to their core as the proverbial death knell tolls on their administration.5
