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Worrying poll findings for Truss from YouGov and R&K – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited September 30 in General
Worrying poll findings for Truss from YouGov and R&K – politicalbetting.com

LAB lead up to 13% with @RedfieldWilton Labour 44% (+2)Conservative 31% (-1)Liberal Democrat 11% (-1)Green 6% (+1)SNP 4% (–)Reform UK 2% (-1)Other 1% (–)

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,334
    First?????
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,236
    Polling really should be about the last thing to worry about right now.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,093
    FPT:

    Ed Conway
    @EdConwaySky
    ·
    2m
    UK govt bond yields just spiked even higher.
    10 year now up to 4.24%
    This is NOT the reaction HMT & BoE would have wanted to their statements.
    Still early doors. Let’s see what happens next...
    Chart shows you the 10yr’s movements so far today
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,093
    How brutal is Truss?

    She could sack Kwarsi tomorrow and try and blame him for it all. But may not work as the basics of this were the fantasies that won her the membership vote from economically illiterate saloon-bar dwelling tory membership.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,093
    Queen's funeral seems years ago...
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,112
    UK LENDER SKIPTON BUILDING SOCIETY WITHDRAWS NEW MORTGAGE BUSINESS PRODUCT RANGE WITH IMMEDIATE EFFECT - EMAIL SENT TO BROKERS https://twitter.com/DeItaone/status/1574429923082657792
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,334
    Time for the Conservatives to knife her, I think. That is what they do, traditionally, with a failing leader.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,112
    Reactions: Britain's pound crumbles to record lows in firesale of UK assets http://reut.rs/3xPRPwP https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1574432630484996098/photo/1
  • A former Tory SPAD gets in touch about the special fiscal operation.

    ‘Almost like Liz Truss likes being humiliated, can’t get more humiliating for a PM than the country having a currency and borrowing crisis on their watch.’
  • eekeek Posts: 21,770

    How brutal is Truss?

    She could sack Kwarsi tomorrow and try and blame him for it all. But may not work as the basics of this were the fantasies that won her the membership vote from economically illiterate saloon-bar dwelling tory membership.

    But who would willingly replace Kwarsi?

    The reality is if Truss removed Kwarsi she would be going as soon as the 1922 committee could organise a vote...
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,093
    Sam Freedman
    @Samfr
    ·
    1h
    For the first time in this electoral cycle the betting markets see a Labour majority as more likely than a Tory one.

    https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1574415754111467521
  • A former Tory SPAD gets in touch about the special fiscal operation.

    ‘Almost like Liz Truss likes being humiliated, can’t get more humiliating for a PM than the country having a currency and borrowing crisis on their watch.’

    Well, @Leon did point to her taste in jewellery...
  • eekeek Posts: 21,770
    It's Peston but also true

    Robert Peston
    @Peston
    The Bank of England signals we are in a crisis after the emergency budget and says it won’t hesitate to put up interest rates - and the pound falls again. Which shows the Bank and Chancellor both have serious credibility problems. Worrying
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,112
    Mortgage market moves seem very significant - a swathe of banks are, we believe, pulling their fixed rate deals tonight and will return to market at more expensive prices.

    This could be very consequential.


    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1574432866985025536
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,322

    Queen's funeral seems years ago...

    The Queen got out just in time. Charles can watch the UK crash and burn under Truss-o-nomics
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594
    The UK has too much debt. Markets are questioning whether the UK can meet all its obligations.

    The person who gave Britain too much debt is Rishi Sunak via his furlough scheme.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,093
    Analysts starting to give it 48 hours before BoE buckles and has emergency meeting.

  • The Truss bounce has been and gone.

    Labour majority.
  • eekeek Posts: 21,770
    Scott_xP said:

    UK LENDER SKIPTON BUILDING SOCIETY WITHDRAWS NEW MORTGAGE BUSINESS PRODUCT RANGE WITH IMMEDIATE EFFECT - EMAIL SENT TO BROKERS https://twitter.com/DeItaone/status/1574429923082657792

    Virgin has also done so from 8pm (to provide time for part processed applications to be submitted)
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,322

    A former Tory SPAD gets in touch about the special fiscal operation.

    ‘Almost like Liz Truss likes being humiliated, can’t get more humiliating for a PM than the country having a currency and borrowing crisis on their watch.’

    He assumes that she either knows or cares what that means. I am not convinced that she does.
  • Starmer leads Truss by 4%.

    At this moment, which of the following individuals do British voters think would be the better PM for the United Kingdom? (25 September)

    Keir Starmer 38% (+3)
    Liz Truss 34% (-6)
    Don't Know 28% (+3)

    Changes +/- 21 September

    That is a disaster for Truss. Starmer is soaring.
  • Not been following it closely today - are the expectations that the govt actually have votes for the budget to pass?
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,654
    Yeah, this really isn’t good news now that lenders are pulling their fixed rates.

    Truss doesn’t have the personality or credibility to carry through this sort of agenda. The majority of us on here could see that Truss would be a disaster. She is a disaster
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,093
    MISTY said:

    The UK has too much debt. Markets are questioning whether the UK can meet all its obligations.

    The person who gave Britain too much debt is Rishi Sunak via his furlough scheme.

    No. The markets weren't questioning the debt issue until Truss got into office and started playing fantasy island economics.

  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 2,002
    Please

    Just get rid of Liz and Kwasi now. Before the whole country is ruined permanently

    💙
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,093
    Scott_xP said:

    Mortgage market moves seem very significant - a swathe of banks are, we believe, pulling their fixed rate deals tonight and will return to market at more expensive prices.

    This could be very consequential.


    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1574432866985025536

    Tory polling in middle england about to become dire.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,112
    A Conservative MP gives a verdict on Kwarteng: "Tax cuts in a traditional Tory way have always got to be self-financing. He makes Tony Barber look like Mr Gradgrind. It’s utterly absurd."
    https://twitter.com/rowenamason/status/1574433337049055233
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 24,297

    Not been following it closely today - are the expectations that the govt actually have votes for the budget to pass?

    It isn't a Budget.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,093
    eek said:

    It's Peston but also true

    Robert Peston
    @Peston
    The Bank of England signals we are in a crisis after the emergency budget and says it won’t hesitate to put up interest rates - and the pound falls again. Which shows the Bank and Chancellor both have serious credibility problems. Worrying

    ... because the BoE actually did hesitate to put up interest rates. They should have gone up this morning.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,654
    edited September 26
    MISTY said:

    The UK has too much debt. Markets are questioning whether the UK can meet all its obligations.

    The person who gave Britain too much debt is Rishi Sunak via his furlough scheme.

    But Sunak at least tried to show how he’d balance the books / reduce the deficit. I even recall him delaying reductions in income tax reductions precisely because he understood the markets

    MISTY said:

    The UK has too much debt. Markets are questioning whether the UK can meet all its obligations.

    The person who gave Britain too much debt is Rishi Sunak via his furlough scheme.

    No. The markets weren't questioning the debt issue until Truss got into office and started playing fantasy island economics.

    So having too much debt, truss and Kwasi decided to say “let’s cut taxes and borrow shit loads more”
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 7,222
    edited September 26
    MISTY said:

    The UK has too much debt. Markets are questioning whether the UK can meet all its obligations.

    The person who gave Britain too much debt is Rishi Sunak via his furlough scheme.

    Not the person or people who invented Brexit, the chancellor who refused windfall taxes, committed to more tax cuts in future, and boosted defence spending ? Or the opaquely funded Institute of Economic Affairs, and their new pet government ?

    Have you had a look at the cost of the German pandemic bailout recently, Mr Misty ?
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,519
    Scott_xP said:

    UK LENDER SKIPTON BUILDING SOCIETY WITHDRAWS NEW MORTGAGE BUSINESS PRODUCT RANGE WITH IMMEDIATE EFFECT - EMAIL SENT TO BROKERS https://twitter.com/DeItaone/status/1574429923082657792

    Damn... bye bye fixed rate mortgages. That will definitely crash the housing market.
  • dixiedean said:

    Not been following it closely today - are the expectations that the govt actually have votes for the budget to pass?

    It isn't a Budget.
    Special kamikwasi operation or whatever it is called.
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594

    MISTY said:

    The UK has too much debt. Markets are questioning whether the UK can meet all its obligations.

    The person who gave Britain too much debt is Rishi Sunak via his furlough scheme.

    No. The markets weren't questioning the debt issue until Truss got into office and started playing fantasy island economics.

    No. Sunak's high taxes were not raising the money he wanted. Nowhere near. We would, essentially, be in the same position if he had won.

    Either Sunak or Truss would be looking at huge spending cuts at some juncture. There is no alternative.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,654

    Not been following it closely today - are the expectations that the govt actually have votes for the budget to pass?

    Not a budget, so unclear how they vote on it. As individual measures maybe?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,538

    The Truss bounce has been and gone.

    .

    This is the Truss honeymoon bounce in full glory.
  • Somehow this is Labour's fault
  • Do you think the changes the Chancellor announced this week will generally benefit wealthier people more, poorer people more, or benefit both equally?

    Wealthier people: 63%
    Poorer people: 3%
    Both equally: 9%

    Labour's lines have worked superbly.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,236

    Analysts starting to give it 48 hours before BoE buckles and has emergency meeting.

    I honestly think that they would be better doing it now rather than getting dragged to the table. It is inevitable and a consequence of an incompetent Bank being so far behind the curve along with an incontinent Chancellor who seems to have less idea of what he is doing every time he opens his mouth.

    This will not be the last increase but it may buy a few hours to work out what the hell they are going to do next.
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594

    MISTY said:

    The UK has too much debt. Markets are questioning whether the UK can meet all its obligations.

    The person who gave Britain too much debt is Rishi Sunak via his furlough scheme.

    But Sunak at least tried to show how he’d balance the books / reduce the deficit. I even recall him delaying reductions in income tax reductions precisely because he understood the markets

    MISTY said:

    The UK has too much debt. Markets are questioning whether the UK can meet all its obligations.

    The person who gave Britain too much debt is Rishi Sunak via his furlough scheme.

    No. The markets weren't questioning the debt issue until Truss got into office and started playing fantasy island economics.

    So having too much debt, truss and Kwasi decided to say “let’s cut taxes and borrow shit loads more”
    The evidence was that Sunak was failing, and failing badly. The tax take was nowhere near what he was expecting.

    With taxes already the highest in 70 years, his only option was spending cuts.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 42,934

    Somehow this is Labour's fault

    It's Blair and Brown's fault for creating the structural problems, and it's Cameron and Osborne's fault for not not fixing them when they had the chance. If we are now facing a reckoning, it goes back to the period before the financial crisis.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,112
    interesting thread from ex Treasury permanent secretary: https://twitter.com/nickmacpherson2/status/1574431612388999169
  • TazTaz Posts: 6,194

    A former Tory SPAD gets in touch about the special fiscal operation.

    ‘Almost like Liz Truss likes being humiliated, can’t get more humiliating for a PM than the country having a currency and borrowing crisis on their watch.’

    Crisis, what crisis !
  • Somehow this is Labour's fault

    It's Blair and Brown's fault for creating the structural problems, and it's Cameron and Osborne's fault for not not fixing them when they had the chance. If we are now facing a reckoning, it goes back to the period before the financial crisis.
    ROFL you've been in Government 12 YEARS!
  • Scott_xP said:

    UK LENDER SKIPTON BUILDING SOCIETY WITHDRAWS NEW MORTGAGE BUSINESS PRODUCT RANGE WITH IMMEDIATE EFFECT - EMAIL SENT TO BROKERS https://twitter.com/DeItaone/status/1574429923082657792

    Damn... bye bye fixed rate mortgages. That will definitely crash the housing market.

    About bloody time if so. But I'm not as hopeful as you are.
  • ClippP said:

    Time for the Conservatives to knife her, I think. That is what they do, traditionally, with a failing leader.

    Truss has lots of problems but suggesting she is knifed is out of order - remember Jo Cox and David Amess
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 42,934

    Somehow this is Labour's fault

    It's Blair and Brown's fault for creating the structural problems, and it's Cameron and Osborne's fault for not not fixing them when they had the chance. If we are now facing a reckoning, it goes back to the period before the financial crisis.
    ROFL you've been in Government 12 YEARS!
    No I haven't!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,236
    MISTY said:

    The UK has too much debt. Markets are questioning whether the UK can meet all its obligations.

    The person who gave Britain too much debt is Rishi Sunak via his furlough scheme.

    And we never got around to paying back the debts from the GFC. And now we are borrowing a lot more to pay the gas meter. The idea that our government somehow has the power or capability to protect us from the buffering of an extremely choppy sea simply has to stop before it is too late. It is ultimately delusional.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 72,821
    edited September 26
    Its the storyline for the current Tory party...

    British father, 30, SPLITS from Ukrainian refugee accusing her of 'irrational behaviour, not handling her drink and stabbing a wall' - just four months after he dumped his partner of 10 years and mother of his two children to be with her

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11250951/British-father-30-SPLITS-Ukrainian-refugee-affair-with.html
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 7,222
    edited September 26
    "Clearing up Labour's mess", indeed.

    What a great job they've done of that.
  • DavidL said:

    Analysts starting to give it 48 hours before BoE buckles and has emergency meeting.

    I honestly think that they would be better doing it now rather than getting dragged to the table. It is inevitable and a consequence of an incompetent Bank being so far behind the curve along with an incontinent Chancellor who seems to have less idea of what he is doing every time he opens his mouth.

    This will not be the last increase but it may buy a few hours to work out what the hell they are going to do next.
    The BoE can't fix this mess, because it's primarily a Treasury mess. Sure, the BoE can increase interest rates and that might stabilise sterling for a bit, but the markets still won't be reassured that the government is going to get the public finances back under some semblance of control.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 10,472

    Jonathan said:

    The Truss bounce has been and gone.

    .

    This is the Truss honeymoon bounce in full glory.
    Alastair Meeks @AlastairMeeks

    The kind of honeymoon normally seen on Married At First Sight.
    As bad as Gemma and Matt.
  • Another question, if we were really determined to do the Truss/Kwarteng tax cuts, most of which don't apply until April, why did we not borrow as much as we could have done on long term fixed rates prior to announcing them. We could have been converting our debt over onto long term fixes for another six months before the market realised we were borrowing to make the rich richer, instead of paying the much higher rates we will do now? What was the rush?
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594
    MaxPB said:

    MISTY said:

    The UK has too much debt. Markets are questioning whether the UK can meet all its obligations.

    The person who gave Britain too much debt is Rishi Sunak via his furlough scheme.

    No, it's because the chancellor has borrowed billions to cut taxes with no prospect of those tax cuts raising trend growth or now, with the prospect of rate rises, near term growth.

    If the tax cuts were funded with spending cuts and tax rises elsewhere there'd be nothing like this kind of market reaction. The fact that we have an 8% current budget deficit and a chancellor who is going to push that up with no plan to bring it into balance is the killer for us. The UK relies on the kindness of strangers, as Carney put it, now those strangers are wondering whether the UK is still a good bet.
    Sunak did not rely on the kindness of strangers, he relied on Bailey. The Sunak 'plan' to bring the finances into balance was clearly failing, as the borrowing numbers over the leadership election period showed.

    Sunak would have been forced into massive spending cuts sooner, rather than later, given he could not increase taxes more. Debt would still be ballooning except the economy would be pitching into recession.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 42,934
    edited September 26

    Somehow this is Labour's fault

    It's Blair and Brown's fault for creating the structural problems, and it's Cameron and Osborne's fault for not not fixing them when they had the chance. If we are now facing a reckoning, it goes back to the period before the financial crisis.
    ROFL you've been in Government 12 YEARS!
    No I haven't!
    In all seriousness, that's genuinely my view; it's not just spin. Since Brown there's been a new version of the post-war consensus based on managing the business cycle and using asset bubbles and immigration to mask a declining growth rate.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 55,032
    edited September 26
    DavidL said:

    Analysts starting to give it 48 hours before BoE buckles and has emergency meeting.

    I honestly think that they would be better doing it now rather than getting dragged to the table. It is inevitable and a consequence of an incompetent Bank being so far behind the curve along with an incontinent Chancellor who seems to have less idea of what he is doing every time he opens his mouth.

    This will not be the last increase but it may buy a few hours to work out what the hell they are going to do next.
    Indeed and Lagarde saying just now the ECB are to have a series of rate hikes
  • PeterMPeterM Posts: 302
    MaxPB said:

    MISTY said:

    The UK has too much debt. Markets are questioning whether the UK can meet all its obligations.

    The person who gave Britain too much debt is Rishi Sunak via his furlough scheme.

    No, it's because the chancellor has borrowed billions to cut taxes with no prospect of those tax cuts raising trend growth or now, with the prospect of rate rises, near term growth.

    If the tax cuts were funded with spending cuts and tax rises elsewhere there'd be nothing like this kind of market reaction. The fact that we have an 8% current budget deficit and a chancellor who is going to push that up with no plan to bring it into balance is the killer for us. The UK relies on the kindness of strangers, as Carney put it, now those strangers are wondering whether the UK is still a good bet.
    yes a budget deficit of that size thrusts us into greece territory in a few years...at that point there is no alternative but brutal spending cuts
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594
    DavidL said:

    MISTY said:

    The UK has too much debt. Markets are questioning whether the UK can meet all its obligations.

    The person who gave Britain too much debt is Rishi Sunak via his furlough scheme.

    And we never got around to paying back the debts from the GFC. And now we are borrowing a lot more to pay the gas meter. The idea that our government somehow has the power or capability to protect us from the buffering of an extremely choppy sea simply has to stop before it is too late. It is ultimately delusional.
    Johnson's garbage about 'putting our arms around the people of Britain' was always just that...as well as his titanic bullsh8t about the massive power of the UK treasury.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 36,147

    DavidL said:

    Analysts starting to give it 48 hours before BoE buckles and has emergency meeting.

    I honestly think that they would be better doing it now rather than getting dragged to the table. It is inevitable and a consequence of an incompetent Bank being so far behind the curve along with an incontinent Chancellor who seems to have less idea of what he is doing every time he opens his mouth.

    This will not be the last increase but it may buy a few hours to work out what the hell they are going to do next.
    The BoE can't fix this mess, because it's primarily a Treasury mess. Sure, the BoE can increase interest rates and that might stabilise sterling for a bit, but the markets still won't be reassured that the government is going to get the public finances back under some semblance of control.
    November is too far away, I don't understand the logic of that at all. We need a proper budget with spending allocations by the end of October and what taxes will be going up to pay for the recent cuts. That November plan has gone down very badly in the square mile, that, more than any immediate action by the Bank will weigh on sterling.

    The ship is rudderless and the captain and first mate have set a course that takes it awfully close to an iceberg.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Scott_xP said:

    UK LENDER SKIPTON BUILDING SOCIETY WITHDRAWS NEW MORTGAGE BUSINESS PRODUCT RANGE WITH IMMEDIATE EFFECT - EMAIL SENT TO BROKERS https://twitter.com/DeItaone/status/1574429923082657792

    Damn... bye bye fixed rate mortgages. That will definitely crash the housing market.
    Don't think so, they have never not been a thing. They just don't want to sell them for the next 48 hours while they reprice them. So just bye cheap fixed rate mortgages.

    Bailey is an arse, I told him IPT to hike 1% today. Oooh, he is closely monitoring the situation, I feel safer already, as if anyone expected him to be off on his annual leave. Every adult in the country is closely monitoring the situation.
  • Scott_xP said:

    Mortgage market moves seem very significant - a swathe of banks are, we believe, pulling their fixed rate deals tonight and will return to market at more expensive prices.

    This could be very consequential.


    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1574432866985025536

    So many hopes, dreams and aspirations going down the Swanee because fools who thought they knew best didn’t. It is unforgivable.

  • PeterMPeterM Posts: 302

    Somehow this is Labour's fault

    It's Blair and Brown's fault for creating the structural problems, and it's Cameron and Osborne's fault for not not fixing them when they had the chance. If we are now facing a reckoning, it goes back to the period before the financial crisis.
    ROFL you've been in Government 12 YEARS!
    No I haven't!
    In all seriousness, that's genuinely my view; it's not just spin. Since Brown there's been a new version of the post-war consensus based on managing the business cycle and using asset bubbles and immigration to mask a declining growth rate.
    hence the exploding inequality whilst the boomers in their mortgage free houses think everythings fine
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 19,493
    DavidL said:

    MISTY said:

    The UK has too much debt. Markets are questioning whether the UK can meet all its obligations.

    The person who gave Britain too much debt is Rishi Sunak via his furlough scheme.

    And we never got around to paying back the debts from the GFC. And now we are borrowing a lot more to pay the gas meter. The idea that our government somehow has the power or capability to protect us from the buffering of an extremely choppy sea simply has to stop before it is too late. It is ultimately delusional.
    Then why are you so insistent on propping up the pound? Why not allow it to find its 'true' valuation, let manufacturers and the tourism industry benefit, and let imports and foreign holidays get more expensive? It will also reduce the options for Government regarding new debt, and reduce the value of old debt. And when the economy really recovers (as it did after the ERM), the recovery will be genuine.
  • On 23rd November - if he has not been forced to do it before (and assuming he’s still there) - Kwarteng will have no choice but to announce huge cuts in public spending. It’s hard to see how those further tax cuts trailed at the weekend can now happen either.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 8,447

    Another question, if we were really determined to do the Truss/Kwarteng tax cuts, most of which don't apply until April, why did we not borrow as much as we could have done on long term fixed rates prior to announcing them. We could have been converting our debt over onto long term fixes for another six months before the market realised we were borrowing to make the rich richer, instead of paying the much higher rates we will do now? What was the rush?

    Thats a very good question. I'm not sure that a central bank has ever managed the yield curve in that way. However now you mention it all central banks should be looking to roll out the maturity of their debt in such circumstances. I guess the BoE role is soon to be free. Stick your hat in the ring!
  • eekeek Posts: 21,770
    MaxPB said:

    MISTY said:

    The UK has too much debt. Markets are questioning whether the UK can meet all its obligations.

    The person who gave Britain too much debt is Rishi Sunak via his furlough scheme.

    No, it's because the chancellor has borrowed billions to cut taxes with no prospect of those tax cuts raising trend growth or now, with the prospect of rate rises, near term growth.

    If the tax cuts were funded with spending cuts and tax rises elsewhere there'd be nothing like this kind of market reaction. The fact that we have an 8% current budget deficit and a chancellor who is going to push that up with no plan to bring it into balance is the killer for us. The UK relies on the kindness of strangers, as Carney put it, now those strangers are wondering whether the UK is still a good bet.
    And as you pointed out before the tax changes would make sense if there wasn't so many of them and they hadn't been so badly implemented.

    IR35 costs money but can easily be argued as an improvement that will enhance the economies ability to react to things quickly.

    The NI reversal isn't an easy argument but it gives people more money at the time money is required - it also gives companies more money which may be useful to cover extra costs or given workers another pay rise / one off payment if required.

    The Corporation Tax one has the argument low corporation tax is good which by itself is fine. History shows that it removes the incentive for firms to invest so personally a high rate and allowances would have made more sense.

    But the 45% cut with the excuse of trickle down economics didn't make sense and didn't have any rational argument behind it.

    All combined you can see why the markets decided over the weekend the plan was as naked as the emperor when he wore his new clothes.
  • PeterMPeterM Posts: 302

    Scott_xP said:

    Mortgage market moves seem very significant - a swathe of banks are, we believe, pulling their fixed rate deals tonight and will return to market at more expensive prices.

    This could be very consequential.


    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1574432866985025536

    So many hopes, dreams and aspirations going down the Swanee because fools who thought they knew best didn’t. It is unforgivable.

    hopefully in the future people will pay more attention to risk....the property market in this country is a monstrosity enabled by govt policy
  • Somehow this is Labour's fault

    It's Blair and Brown's fault for creating the structural problems, and it's Cameron and Osborne's fault for not not fixing them when they had the chance. If we are now facing a reckoning, it goes back to the period before the financial crisis.
    ROFL you've been in Government 12 YEARS!
    No I haven't!
    In all seriousness, that's genuinely my view; it's not just spin. Since Brown there's been a new version of the post-war consensus based on managing the business cycle and using asset bubbles and immigration to mask a declining growth rate.
    There's some merit in that view, but it's an argument for genuine supply-side changes, properly thought-through tax reform, better education, not having a trade war with the EU, and a bunch of other longish-term policy initiatives. It doesn't excuse the short-term chaos Truss and Kwarteng have caused.

    Your argument is that we should have built a better car, but they are crashing the existing one.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,112
    One for the musical theatre / debt market early evening crowd https://twitter.com/GeneralBoles/status/1574436620253569024/photo/1


  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,236

    DavidL said:

    Analysts starting to give it 48 hours before BoE buckles and has emergency meeting.

    I honestly think that they would be better doing it now rather than getting dragged to the table. It is inevitable and a consequence of an incompetent Bank being so far behind the curve along with an incontinent Chancellor who seems to have less idea of what he is doing every time he opens his mouth.

    This will not be the last increase but it may buy a few hours to work out what the hell they are going to do next.
    The BoE can't fix this mess, because it's primarily a Treasury mess. Sure, the BoE can increase interest rates and that might stabilise sterling for a bit, but the markets still won't be reassured that the government is going to get the public finances back under some semblance of control.
    Friday was just bizarre, really. It would have been brave for a country that had been running a surplus for the last 30 years. Today is just bonkers. Government spending has to increase by something approaching inflation if they want a work force. It might have been a plan to realise that before deciding to cut your income by so much Kwasi. Just saying. As it is, how the hell does he think that a real terms cut of public spending of 10% is consistent with a growth plan? He is about to induce a major recession.

    But the Bank has not helped. Importing inflation by a falling currency is really not the ideal when the government is boosting demand and consumption on an economy running with full employment, low investment and an insane trading deficit.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 4,502
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 19,551
    Safe to say the budget has gone down like a bowl of cold sick then?
  • eekeek Posts: 21,770
    MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    Analysts starting to give it 48 hours before BoE buckles and has emergency meeting.

    I honestly think that they would be better doing it now rather than getting dragged to the table. It is inevitable and a consequence of an incompetent Bank being so far behind the curve along with an incontinent Chancellor who seems to have less idea of what he is doing every time he opens his mouth.

    This will not be the last increase but it may buy a few hours to work out what the hell they are going to do next.
    The BoE can't fix this mess, because it's primarily a Treasury mess. Sure, the BoE can increase interest rates and that might stabilise sterling for a bit, but the markets still won't be reassured that the government is going to get the public finances back under some semblance of control.
    November is too far away, I don't understand the logic of that at all. We need a proper budget with spending allocations by the end of October and what taxes will be going up to pay for the recent cuts. That November plan has gone down very badly in the square mile, that, more than any immediate action by the Bank will weigh on sterling.

    The ship is rudderless and the captain and first mate have set a course that takes it awfully close to an iceberg.
    Close to the iceberg? Kwasi seems to have pointed the ship at the middle of the iceberg and increased the engines to full power....
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 36,147
    MISTY said:

    MaxPB said:

    MISTY said:

    The UK has too much debt. Markets are questioning whether the UK can meet all its obligations.

    The person who gave Britain too much debt is Rishi Sunak via his furlough scheme.

    No, it's because the chancellor has borrowed billions to cut taxes with no prospect of those tax cuts raising trend growth or now, with the prospect of rate rises, near term growth.

    If the tax cuts were funded with spending cuts and tax rises elsewhere there'd be nothing like this kind of market reaction. The fact that we have an 8% current budget deficit and a chancellor who is going to push that up with no plan to bring it into balance is the killer for us. The UK relies on the kindness of strangers, as Carney put it, now those strangers are wondering whether the UK is still a good bet.
    Sunak did not rely on the kindness of strangers, he relied on Bailey. The Sunak 'plan' to bring the finances into balance was clearly failing, as the borrowing numbers over the leadership election period showed.

    Sunak would have been forced into massive spending cuts sooner, rather than later, given he could not increase taxes more. Debt would still be ballooning except the economy would be pitching into recession.
    The UK runs a current account (not budget) deficit of 6-7% per year. We rely on a net hundred billion of foreign money pouring into the UK economy for job and wealth creation. Without it we would go into a very deep and prolonged recession. Sterling is tanking because those investors have taken fright and are pulling their money and waiting for a discount. @DavidL has been raising the current account deficit for as long as this website has been running and now it's finally reared its ugly head.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,093
    Selebian said:
    Ukraine frontline or 160 years in Federal max security hell hole in US.

    What a choice.
  • Actual footage of Liz Truss & the UK economy and the financial markets.




    If you know this meme then shame on you 😂

  • VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,227
    Note that Kwasi has confirmed that the Government is sticking to spending settlements for this spending period.

    The SR2021 was announced last October with a maximum of 4% inflation expected. It lasts until 2024/25.

    It seems that there will be no increases to department spending to reflect higher inflation of 10%.

    This probably means a real terms cut for the NHS etc.

    Whilst the government can claim it is not cutting spending, high inflation will cause a real term cut.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,236

    Jonathan said:

    The Truss bounce has been and gone.

    .

    This is the Truss honeymoon bounce in full glory.
    Alastair Meeks @AlastairMeeks

    The kind of honeymoon normally seen on Married At First Sight.
    I am sure that most of us (and Alastair) are far too intellectual to watch Married at First Sight.

    But yes.
  • On 23rd November - if he has not been forced to do it before (and assuming he’s still there) - Kwarteng will have no choice but to announce huge cuts in public spending. It’s hard to see how those further tax cuts trailed at the weekend can now happen either.

    Double digit inflation with the triple lock for the client vote, war in Ukraine, ambulances can't unload patients into the hospitals, every man, woman and dog on a strike rotation, good luck in finding enough diversity officers and wasteful admin staff to make the slightest dent in the numbers needed.
  • Expectation at work.

    No (fixed rate) mortgage offers to be available from UK providers within 48 hours.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,093
    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    57m
    If Tory MPs think bankers bonuses and the 45p rate cut are politically toxic, what are they going to think when they’re seen in the context of November’s statement announcing significant public spending cuts.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 19,493
    DavidL said:

    Jonathan said:

    The Truss bounce has been and gone.

    .

    This is the Truss honeymoon bounce in full glory.
    Alastair Meeks @AlastairMeeks

    The kind of honeymoon normally seen on Married At First Sight.
    I am sure that most of us (and Alastair) are far too intellectual to watch Married at First Sight.

    But yes.
    What is it?
  • DavidL said:

    MISTY said:

    The UK has too much debt. Markets are questioning whether the UK can meet all its obligations.

    The person who gave Britain too much debt is Rishi Sunak via his furlough scheme.

    And we never got around to paying back the debts from the GFC. And now we are borrowing a lot more to pay the gas meter. The idea that our government somehow has the power or capability to protect us from the buffering of an extremely choppy sea simply has to stop before it is too late. It is ultimately delusional.
    Then why are you so insistent on propping up the pound? Why not allow it to find its 'true' valuation, let manufacturers and the tourism industry benefit, and let imports and foreign holidays get more expensive? It will also reduce the options for Government regarding new debt, and reduce the value of old debt. And when the economy really recovers (as it did after the ERM), the recovery will be genuine.
    For once I agree totally with you.

    A freely floating exchange rate should be left to reach whatever new equilibrium it reaches. Propping it up is just throwing good money after bad.

    The UK has overspent for decades. A reckoning is inevitable.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 10,472

    On 23rd November - if he has not been forced to do it before (and assuming he’s still there) - Kwarteng will have no choice but to announce huge cuts in public spending. It’s hard to see how those further tax cuts trailed at the weekend can now happen either.

    He's already announced large cuts in public spending, hiding behind inflation.
  • Looks like we are doomed to a public sector orientated nannying Labour government in perpetuity. Thanks Brexiteers! Cracking job you did to throw away the Tories main USPs of governmental competence and economic sanity
  • ChrisChris Posts: 8,836

    Another question, if we were really determined to do the Truss/Kwarteng tax cuts, most of which don't apply until April, why did we not borrow as much as we could have done on long term fixed rates prior to announcing them. We could have been converting our debt over onto long term fixes for another six months before the market realised we were borrowing to make the rich richer, instead of paying the much higher rates we will do now? What was the rush?

    Presumably because they thought it would be a political triumph.

    Maybe they thought it would give them enough of a boost to call a snap election.

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 42,934
    Selebian said:
    It would be ironic if he found himself on the wrong end of a HIMARS rocket fighting for Russia.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,093

    John Rentoul
    @JohnRentoul
    ·
    11m
    Replying to
    @RedfieldWilton
    First poll after the emergency Budget; if that were a general election it would mean a Labour majority of 70 on new boundaries

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,236

    DavidL said:

    MISTY said:

    The UK has too much debt. Markets are questioning whether the UK can meet all its obligations.

    The person who gave Britain too much debt is Rishi Sunak via his furlough scheme.

    And we never got around to paying back the debts from the GFC. And now we are borrowing a lot more to pay the gas meter. The idea that our government somehow has the power or capability to protect us from the buffering of an extremely choppy sea simply has to stop before it is too late. It is ultimately delusional.
    Then why are you so insistent on propping up the pound? Why not allow it to find its 'true' valuation, let manufacturers and the tourism industry benefit, and let imports and foreign holidays get more expensive? It will also reduce the options for Government regarding new debt, and reduce the value of old debt. And when the economy really recovers (as it did after the ERM), the recovery will be genuine.
    Because we need to keep control of inflation. It's as simple as that really.
  • Chris said:

    Another question, if we were really determined to do the Truss/Kwarteng tax cuts, most of which don't apply until April, why did we not borrow as much as we could have done on long term fixed rates prior to announcing them. We could have been converting our debt over onto long term fixes for another six months before the market realised we were borrowing to make the rich richer, instead of paying the much higher rates we will do now? What was the rush?

    Presumably because they thought it would be a political triumph.

    Maybe they thought it would give them enough of a boost to call a snap election.

    The only vaguely plausible political benefit I have heard from this is it forces Labour to say they will raise taxes at the next election. That could also have waited til April. Not sure even the biggest fans of fake Thatcherism thought that removing the 45% rate would be popular in the short term.
  • fox327fox327 Posts: 357

    Please

    Just get rid of Liz and Kwasi now. Before the whole country is ruined permanently

    💙

    And don't let the Tory membership anywhere near the decision as to who the replacement PM is... .

    MPs are elected by the public to make these decisions, not Tory party members.
  • Big shout out to all those who applauded Friday’s budget because it upset all the right people.
This discussion has been closed.