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Just 19% think the Chancellor’s changes will make them better off – politicalbetting.com

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  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,598
    PeterM said:

    Jonathan said:

    It's a remarkable achievement in less than two weeks to make people yearn for the stability, competence and political care of Boris Johnson.

    whats remarkable is since Blair each Pm has been worse than the last...from Brown to Cameron to May to Johnson to Truss....at this rate we will soon be led by someone akin to the President in the film idiocracy
    Mogg?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,190
    PeterM said:

    Jonathan said:

    It's a remarkable achievement in less than two weeks to make people yearn for the stability, competence and political care of Boris Johnson.

    whats remarkable is since Blair each Pm has been worse than the last...from Brown to Cameron to May to Johnson to Truss....at this rate we will soon be led by someone akin to the President in the film idiocracy
    JRM
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,754
    Jonathan said:

    PeterM said:

    Jonathan said:

    It's a remarkable achievement in less than two weeks to make people yearn for the stability, competence and political care of Boris Johnson.

    whats remarkable is since Blair each Pm has been worse than the last...from Brown to Cameron to May to Johnson to Truss....at this rate we will soon be led by someone akin to the President in the film idiocracy
    Mogg?
    Shut up you fool, don't give them ideas.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 2,160
    PeterM said:

    Jonathan said:

    It's a remarkable achievement in less than two weeks to make people yearn for the stability, competence and political care of Boris Johnson.

    whats remarkable is since Blair each Pm has been worse than the last...from Brown to Cameron to May to Johnson to Truss....at this rate we will soon be led by someone akin to the President in the film idiocracy
    Cameron was better than Brown.
  • PeterMPeterM Posts: 302
    Jonathan said:

    PeterM said:

    Jonathan said:

    It's a remarkable achievement in less than two weeks to make people yearn for the stability, competence and political care of Boris Johnson.

    whats remarkable is since Blair each Pm has been worse than the last...from Brown to Cameron to May to Johnson to Truss....at this rate we will soon be led by someone akin to the President in the film idiocracy
    Mogg?
    Mogg may be a stepping stone to that....
  • I yearn for the days when a bad budget was one that featured pasties.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 42,968
    alex_ said:

    Not just in UK

    Euro/dollar at 0.9707 and ECB say interest rate hikes will be necessary

    Probably pricing on the impact of a race to the bottom as U.K. desperately looks to massively undercut Europe on tax rates and EU responds in kind. No winners.
    This 'race to the bottom' argument rests on a strange idea of what the economy actually is. Economic activity has value beyond acting as a cash cow for the state.
  • Not just in UK

    Euro/dollar at 0.9707 and ECB say interest rate hikes will be necessary

    Perhaps you’ll also post the changes in the cost of government borrowing today.
    I accept the markets have not welcomed the budget and it remains to be seen how this evolves
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 19,569

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    MaxPB said:

    Jonathan said:

    The Tories spent much of the last decade talking about paying down debt. Going crazy on the credit card now is completely at odds with that message.

    It reminds me of the Lib Dems and tuition fees.

    Yes, this feels to me like a generational error for the Tories. The brand for competence was trashed by Boris quite badly and now the brand for sound money has been set on fire by his successor. If the Tories are competent and good with the nation's finances, people will rightly ask themselves why they deserve our votes.
    MaxPB said:

    Jonathan said:

    The Tories spent much of the last decade talking about paying down debt. Going crazy on the credit card now is completely at odds with that message.

    It reminds me of the Lib Dems and tuition fees.

    Yes, this feels to me like a generational error for the Tories. The brand for competence was trashed by Boris quite badly and now the brand for sound money has been set on fire by his successor. If the Tories are competent and good with the nation's finances, people will rightly ask themselves why they deserve our votes.
    I get the impression that Truss and Kwateng think they are being clever, they prioritised trying to present a fresh look to shake off 12 years of baggage, but ended up undermining one of the core values underpinning their party.

    Sometime those that consider themselves clever can be really, really dumb.
    Dumb or narrow minded, over confident, arrogant? They strike me as people who will turn up on political documentaries in twenty years, creases on their brow date back to 2023 24, saying “and there we were, so utterly convinced in our own minds we were doing the right thing.”
    Kwateng's lack of experience certainly showed today. I can't imagine any serious politician of the past doing this. He comes across very poorly I thought. Very arrogant.
    Arrogant really is an emotive term - over confident and inexperienced, and courageous probably Yes Minister way of putting it.

    It also feels like this new government are like minded mates, all agreeing with each other when they get together, egging each other on in a way - when far stronger template for government is to include people who will give you blood on the carpet discussions, to, whatever the opposite of egging you on is.
    I accept the point about arrogant. But usually successful politicians show some kind of sympathy and connections with the electorate. I get the impression from Kwateng that he is somehow above us and if we don't get his master plan it's our fault not his.
    It pains me because on paper he looks really good.

    Economic historian, writer of decently reviewed books.

    But he was considered a waste of space in BEIS and now he is will be associated with these kamakwasi economics.
    Puts me off too - said it from the beginning.

    Not prepared to write him off after one mini budget, but I think perhaps there is a problem that he doesn't believe what he's saying, and therefore doesn't persuade and convince the audience, and more seriously, perhaps doesn't actually get what he's been asked to come up with. Some of this mini-budget maybe reads like what he thinks Truss wants, whereas presumably what she actually wants is the biggest possible rocket up the economy for her buck.

    Hope he's not going to be this Government's Athlete's Foot.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 8,571
    Jonathan said:

    This current crop of Tory leaders do not have the memory of what can go wrong, unlike the previous generation. Some of whom had a front row seat.


    It’s an excellent point. Is the current government prepared to learn from past mistakes, or not listen and repeat them?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,598
    In another world, the Daily Mail didn't spike Mourdant, the final two were Mourdant/Sunak and today didn't happen.

  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,786
    The FTSE is down 1.97% today

    That's actually not as bad as the Dow Jones, which is already down 2.19%
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,020
    edited September 23
    Good evening. Is there any idea when the West Lancs by-election might take place?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 42,968

    Jonathan said:

    This current crop of Tory leaders do not have the memory of what can go wrong, unlike the previous generation. Some of whom had a front row seat.


    It’s an excellent point. Is the current government prepared to learn from past mistakes, or not listen and repeat them?
    Learning from past mistakes would mean not trying to defend an arbitrary exchange rate against another major currency and instead letting the pound fall.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,190
    Interesting point… Sterling’s 20% slump (so far this year) against the $ has big implications for MoD finances.

    So much of Britain’s military kit is purchased from US (35% last year) that the UK needs to find c£500m extra to fund orders this year due £’s decline, says @FTusa284


    https://twitter.com/ftusa284/status/1573311575620034560
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 48,438
    Leon said:

    The FTSE is down 1.97% today

    That's actually not as bad as the Dow Jones, which is already down 2.19%

    The FTSE is cushioned by the fall of sterling. If you constant currency it, the FTSE is down more.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,190
    Either this is what the government *actually believes* will be the effect of cutting taxes for highest earners in 2022 or they know it's drivel but can't think of anything else to say.

    Either way, it isn't encouraging.
    https://twitter.com/LBC/status/1573338564250804226
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,786
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    The FTSE is down 1.97% today

    That's actually not as bad as the Dow Jones, which is already down 2.19%

    The FTSE is cushioned by the fall of sterling. If you constant currency it, the FTSE is down more.
    Well it's your mate Kwasi who's gone and bleedin' dunnit, innit?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 19,569
    Scott_xP said:

    Interesting point… Sterling’s 20% slump (so far this year) against the $ has big implications for MoD finances.

    So much of Britain’s military kit is purchased from US (35% last year) that the UK needs to find c£500m extra to fund orders this year due £’s decline, says @FTusa284


    https://twitter.com/ftusa284/status/1573311575620034560

    Hopefully we cancel it.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 48,438
    Personally, I'm pissed that the top rate of stamp duty has not been cut.

    I mean, if you're going to screw the poor over for the benefit of the rich, at least do it properly.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 16,605

    Jonathan said:

    This current crop of Tory leaders do not have the memory of what can go wrong, unlike the previous generation. Some of whom had a front row seat.


    It’s an excellent point. Is the current government prepared to learn from past mistakes, or not listen and repeat them?
    Learning from past mistakes would mean not trying to defend an arbitrary exchange rate against another major currency and instead letting the pound fall.
    Arbitrary exchange rates don’t work, but neither does devaluing to prosperity.

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 42,968

    Jonathan said:

    This current crop of Tory leaders do not have the memory of what can go wrong, unlike the previous generation. Some of whom had a front row seat.


    It’s an excellent point. Is the current government prepared to learn from past mistakes, or not listen and repeat them?
    Learning from past mistakes would mean not trying to defend an arbitrary exchange rate against another major currency and instead letting the pound fall.
    Arbitrary exchange rates don’t work, but neither does devaluing to prosperity.
    Interest rates were too low for too long. If currency movements encourage the BoE to raise them, so much the better.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 8,876
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    The FTSE is down 1.97% today

    That's actually not as bad as the Dow Jones, which is already down 2.19%

    The FTSE is cushioned by the fall of sterling. If you constant currency it, the FTSE is down more.
    In dollar value, the FTSE100 is down more than 5% today.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 19,569

    Jonathan said:

    This current crop of Tory leaders do not have the memory of what can go wrong, unlike the previous generation. Some of whom had a front row seat.


    It’s an excellent point. Is the current government prepared to learn from past mistakes, or not listen and repeat them?
    Learning from past mistakes would mean not trying to defend an arbitrary exchange rate against another major currency and instead letting the pound fall.
    Arbitrary exchange rates don’t work, but neither does devaluing to prosperity.

    Perhaps not, but as I asked earlier, is there much point to panicking over short fluctuations in the pounds value on the currency markets?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,156

    Truss was right, Sunak was wrong to attempt austerity on a recessionary economy.

    This is even worse, though.

    I think from a purely macro perspective that the extra borrowing is fine. The problem is that Truss/Kwarteng have made no efforts whatsoever to present it within a broader narrative of fiscal responsibility.

    Then, underneath that, you have a giveaway which doesn’t actually incent improved productivity and is - to my opinion - frankly immoral in terms of its distribution.

    The market is voting with its feet.

    It beggars belief that Big G posted earlier that the average family will be pleased with this.

    They're not prepared - or able - to do the thinking required to truly address the problems in our economy, ie skills, productivity, short termism. That's not a capital offence, since these are deep seated issues, but what you have here imo is the worst of all possible worlds. You have cynicism (ditching even lip service to sound money principles to try and buy an election), opportunism (they never thought they'd suddenly get the keys to the toyshop so let's play!) stale ideology (does anybody still believe in this trickledown shit apart from John Redwood and Bart?) plus for good measure a healthy dash of class warfare, where the class being favoured are the wealthy. What a grim day.
  • Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    MaxPB said:

    Jonathan said:

    The Tories spent much of the last decade talking about paying down debt. Going crazy on the credit card now is completely at odds with that message.

    It reminds me of the Lib Dems and tuition fees.

    Yes, this feels to me like a generational error for the Tories. The brand for competence was trashed by Boris quite badly and now the brand for sound money has been set on fire by his successor. If the Tories are competent and good with the nation's finances, people will rightly ask themselves why they deserve our votes.
    MaxPB said:

    Jonathan said:

    The Tories spent much of the last decade talking about paying down debt. Going crazy on the credit card now is completely at odds with that message.

    It reminds me of the Lib Dems and tuition fees.

    Yes, this feels to me like a generational error for the Tories. The brand for competence was trashed by Boris quite badly and now the brand for sound money has been set on fire by his successor. If the Tories are competent and good with the nation's finances, people will rightly ask themselves why they deserve our votes.
    I get the impression that Truss and Kwateng think they are being clever, they prioritised trying to present a fresh look to shake off 12 years of baggage, but ended up undermining one of the core values underpinning their party.

    Sometime those that consider themselves clever can be really, really dumb.
    Dumb or narrow minded, over confident, arrogant? They strike me as people who will turn up on political documentaries in twenty years, creases on their brow date back to 2023 24, saying “and there we were, so utterly convinced in our own minds we were doing the right thing.”
    Kwateng's lack of experience certainly showed today. I can't imagine any serious politician of the past doing this. He comes across very poorly I thought. Very arrogant.
    Arrogant really is an emotive term - over confident and inexperienced, and courageous probably Yes Minister way of putting it.

    It also feels like this new government are like minded mates, all agreeing with each other when they get together, egging each other on in a way - when far stronger template for government is to include people who will give you blood on the carpet discussions, to, whatever the opposite of egging you on is.
    I accept the point about arrogant. But usually successful politicians show some kind of sympathy and connections with the electorate. I get the impression from Kwateng that he is somehow above us and if we don't get his master plan it's our fault not his.
    It pains me because on paper he looks really good.

    Economic historian, writer of decently reviewed books.

    But he was considered a waste of space in BEIS and now he is will be associated with these kamakwasi economics.
    Puts me off too - said it from the beginning.

    Not prepared to write him off after one mini budget, but I think perhaps there is a problem that he doesn't believe what he's saying, and therefore doesn't persuade and convince the audience, and more seriously, perhaps doesn't actually get what he's been asked to come up with. Some of this mini-budget maybe reads like what he thinks Truss wants, whereas presumably what she actually wants is the biggest possible rocket up the economy for her buck.

    Hope he's not going to be this Government's Athlete's Foot.
    This is just brilliant. The markets have reacted badly because Kwasi 'doesn't believe what he's saying'.

    Just believe and it will work.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 48,438
    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    The FTSE is down 1.97% today

    That's actually not as bad as the Dow Jones, which is already down 2.19%

    The FTSE is cushioned by the fall of sterling. If you constant currency it, the FTSE is down more.
    Well it's your mate Kwasi who's gone and bleedin' dunnit, innit?
    I grant you, he hasn't exactly covered himself in glory yet.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,598

    Jonathan said:

    This current crop of Tory leaders do not have the memory of what can go wrong, unlike the previous generation. Some of whom had a front row seat.


    It’s an excellent point. Is the current government prepared to learn from past mistakes, or not listen and repeat them?
    Learning from past mistakes would mean not trying to defend an arbitrary exchange rate against another major currency and instead letting the pound fall.
    Arbitrary exchange rates don’t work, but neither does devaluing to prosperity.

    Perhaps not, but as I asked earlier, is there much point to panicking over short fluctuations in the pounds value on the currency markets?
    Don't worry chaps, the budget only caused a small run on the pound.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 8,571
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    MaxPB said:

    Jonathan said:

    The Tories spent much of the last decade talking about paying down debt. Going crazy on the credit card now is completely at odds with that message.

    It reminds me of the Lib Dems and tuition fees.

    Yes, this feels to me like a generational error for the Tories. The brand for competence was trashed by Boris quite badly and now the brand for sound money has been set on fire by his successor. If the Tories are competent and good with the nation's finances, people will rightly ask themselves why they deserve our votes.
    MaxPB said:

    Jonathan said:

    The Tories spent much of the last decade talking about paying down debt. Going crazy on the credit card now is completely at odds with that message.

    It reminds me of the Lib Dems and tuition fees.

    Yes, this feels to me like a generational error for the Tories. The brand for competence was trashed by Boris quite badly and now the brand for sound money has been set on fire by his successor. If the Tories are competent and good with the nation's finances, people will rightly ask themselves why they deserve our votes.
    I get the impression that Truss and Kwateng think they are being clever, they prioritised trying to present a fresh look to shake off 12 years of baggage, but ended up undermining one of the core values underpinning their party.

    Sometime those that consider themselves clever can be really, really dumb.
    Dumb or narrow minded, over confident, arrogant? They strike me as people who will turn up on political documentaries in twenty years, creases on their brow date back to 2023 24, saying “and there we were, so utterly convinced in our own minds we were doing the right thing.”
    Kwateng's lack of experience certainly showed today. I can't imagine any serious politician of the past doing this. He comes across very poorly I thought. Very arrogant.
    Arrogant really is an emotive term - over confident and inexperienced, and courageous probably Yes Minister way of putting it.

    It also feels like this new government are like minded mates, all agreeing with each other when they get together, egging each other on in a way - when far stronger template for government is to include people who will give you blood on the carpet discussions, to, whatever the opposite of egging you on is.
    I accept the point about arrogant. But usually successful politicians show some kind of sympathy and connections with the electorate. I get the impression from Kwateng that he is somehow above us and if we don't get his master plan it's our fault not his.
    I totally agree with you, K has yet to do empathy. Boris did empathy, but he was a cad and shyster so maybe put empathy out of fashion. K nonchalant commons delivery of this budget didn’t sell it, so yes, another reason why it is so quickly disliked and untrusted by voters.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,190
    Just look at the sell off 😬

    This is a BIG vote of no confidence in new Govt, team Truss & policy mix
    https://twitter.com/Mij_Europe/status/1573352178500382720/photo/1
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,190
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    The FTSE is down 1.97% today

    That's actually not as bad as the Dow Jones, which is already down 2.19%

    The FTSE is cushioned by the fall of sterling. If you constant currency it, the FTSE is down more.
    Well it's your mate Kwasi who's gone and bleedin' dunnit, innit?
    I grant you, he hasn't exactly covered himself in glory yet.
    He's covered.

    That's not glory...
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,008
    edited September 23
    rcs1000 said:

    Personally, I'm pissed that the top rate of stamp duty has not been cut.

    I mean, if you're going to screw the poor over for the benefit of the rich, at least do it properly.

    Bucketsful of sympathy for the extremely hard cheese you are suffering. Anyone would think you had been made to do a corporate bonding course in Snowdonia for four weeks flat in the middle of the monsoon season.

    Edit: Meant ironically, like your post - but that might not have been clear, sorry.
  • Leon said:

    Jonathan said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The louder the squealing from the left, the more certain @KwasiKwarteng and @trussliz will be that they have got this right. They are truly creating an aspiration nation.
    https://twitter.com/IsabelOakeshott/status/1573349307595751426

    If you're bankrupt, all you have left is to aspire.
    We are all of us lying in the gutter, but some of us are gazing at the stars
    In the hope that one of them starts moving in a UFO-esque way.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,665
    When do we start hearing of nervous MPs?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,190

    When do we start hearing of nervous MPs?

    Former chief whip goes on record to call Truss's tax cuts for the rich "wrong" during a cost of living crisis https://twitter.com/JulianSmithUK/status/1573319566872150020
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,598

    I'm no economist, but if there is money available to spend on tax cuts (which there isn't, of course) then surely it makes more sense to spend it on raising the threshold at which people pay income tax? Those who benefit the most would spend it (they need to). Giving a tax cut to those who earn enough to pay 45% on some of their income is not only immoral during the current economic malaise, but also ineffective as they may well hoard it or blow it on stuff that doesn't boost the real economy.

    There you were using the word 'sense'. This is a new era. Making sense is so yesterday. Rookie error.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 2,160

    When do we start hearing of nervous MPs?

    Sunak's fans have been bitching all day, but that's only to be expected.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 8,571
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    This current crop of Tory leaders do not have the memory of what can go wrong, unlike the previous generation. Some of whom had a front row seat.


    It’s an excellent point. Is the current government prepared to learn from past mistakes, or not listen and repeat them?
    Learning from past mistakes would mean not trying to defend an arbitrary exchange rate against another major currency and instead letting the pound fall.
    Arbitrary exchange rates don’t work, but neither does devaluing to prosperity.

    Perhaps not, but as I asked earlier, is there much point to panicking over short fluctuations in the pounds value on the currency markets?
    Don't worry chaps, the budget only caused a small run on the pound.
    I agree with lucky on this, a drop today says what if it’s all recovered with more besides over the next 3 weeks? It’s only long term trends on such markets to pay attention to isn’t it?

    Why don’t we have a monthly feature 23rd of each month, from date of this announcement monthly trend of £ v $ and pound v Euro, Easily settles this argument?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 32,030
    rcs1000 said:

    Off-topic:

    Whilst the loons witter on about pseudo-science, here's a brilliant article on how the ARM chip was developed:
    https://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2022/09/a-history-of-arm-part-1-building-the-first-chip/

    In particular, the following which was key to its success:

    "In fact, one of the first test boards the team plugged the ARM into had a broken connection and was not attached to any power at all. It was a big surprise when they found the fault because the CPU had been working the whole time. It had turned on just from electrical leakage coming from the support chips."

    A great British success story.

    I knew Sophie when she was still Roger 🤣
    I remember some Acorn fanbos saying: "But they're brother and sister!"

    The newspaper articles about her were interesting and a little sad. ISTR one claimed she was the model for Lara Croft...
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 19,569

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    MaxPB said:

    Jonathan said:

    The Tories spent much of the last decade talking about paying down debt. Going crazy on the credit card now is completely at odds with that message.

    It reminds me of the Lib Dems and tuition fees.

    Yes, this feels to me like a generational error for the Tories. The brand for competence was trashed by Boris quite badly and now the brand for sound money has been set on fire by his successor. If the Tories are competent and good with the nation's finances, people will rightly ask themselves why they deserve our votes.
    MaxPB said:

    Jonathan said:

    The Tories spent much of the last decade talking about paying down debt. Going crazy on the credit card now is completely at odds with that message.

    It reminds me of the Lib Dems and tuition fees.

    Yes, this feels to me like a generational error for the Tories. The brand for competence was trashed by Boris quite badly and now the brand for sound money has been set on fire by his successor. If the Tories are competent and good with the nation's finances, people will rightly ask themselves why they deserve our votes.
    I get the impression that Truss and Kwateng think they are being clever, they prioritised trying to present a fresh look to shake off 12 years of baggage, but ended up undermining one of the core values underpinning their party.

    Sometime those that consider themselves clever can be really, really dumb.
    Dumb or narrow minded, over confident, arrogant? They strike me as people who will turn up on political documentaries in twenty years, creases on their brow date back to 2023 24, saying “and there we were, so utterly convinced in our own minds we were doing the right thing.”
    Kwateng's lack of experience certainly showed today. I can't imagine any serious politician of the past doing this. He comes across very poorly I thought. Very arrogant.
    Arrogant really is an emotive term - over confident and inexperienced, and courageous probably Yes Minister way of putting it.

    It also feels like this new government are like minded mates, all agreeing with each other when they get together, egging each other on in a way - when far stronger template for government is to include people who will give you blood on the carpet discussions, to, whatever the opposite of egging you on is.
    I accept the point about arrogant. But usually successful politicians show some kind of sympathy and connections with the electorate. I get the impression from Kwateng that he is somehow above us and if we don't get his master plan it's our fault not his.
    It pains me because on paper he looks really good.

    Economic historian, writer of decently reviewed books.

    But he was considered a waste of space in BEIS and now he is will be associated with these kamakwasi economics.
    Puts me off too - said it from the beginning.

    Not prepared to write him off after one mini budget, but I think perhaps there is a problem that he doesn't believe what he's saying, and therefore doesn't persuade and convince the audience, and more seriously, perhaps doesn't actually get what he's been asked to come up with. Some of this mini-budget maybe reads like what he thinks Truss wants, whereas presumably what she actually wants is the biggest possible rocket up the economy for her buck.

    Hope he's not going to be this Government's Athlete's Foot.
    This is just brilliant. The markets have reacted badly because Kwasi 'doesn't believe what he's saying'.

    Just believe and it will work.
    As I've tried to indicate (probably not very well), the issues of lack of belief in something go far beyond delivering it with panache and conviction. It can translate into lack of coherence in the policy itself.

    What we should be debating right now is a set of policies that, whilst they were always going to be controversial, and their effectiveness hotly debated, were nonetheless completely coherent. A dry, Nigel Lawson, John Redwood-esque blueprint for growth. It seems that instead Kwasi has given us something else.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 8,876

    I'm no economist, but if there is money available to spend on tax cuts (which there isn't, of course) then surely it makes more sense to spend it on raising the threshold at which people pay income tax? Those who benefit the most would spend it (they need to). Giving a tax cut to those who earn enough to pay 45% on some of their income is not only immoral during the current economic malaise, but also ineffective as they may well hoard it or blow it on stuff that doesn't boost the real economy.

    You haven't quite got the point of this Toryism thing, have you?
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 10,394
    Driver said:

    PeterM said:

    Jonathan said:

    It's a remarkable achievement in less than two weeks to make people yearn for the stability, competence and political care of Boris Johnson.

    whats remarkable is since Blair each Pm has been worse than the last...from Brown to Cameron to May to Johnson to Truss....at this rate we will soon be led by someone akin to the President in the film idiocracy
    Cameron was better than Brown.
    No.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,233
    Truss committed political suicide today. That’s all.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,786

    Driver said:

    PeterM said:

    Jonathan said:

    It's a remarkable achievement in less than two weeks to make people yearn for the stability, competence and political care of Boris Johnson.

    whats remarkable is since Blair each Pm has been worse than the last...from Brown to Cameron to May to Johnson to Truss....at this rate we will soon be led by someone akin to the President in the film idiocracy
    Cameron was better than Brown.
    No.
    Boris was better than Cameron. TMay and Brown
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,598

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    This current crop of Tory leaders do not have the memory of what can go wrong, unlike the previous generation. Some of whom had a front row seat.


    It’s an excellent point. Is the current government prepared to learn from past mistakes, or not listen and repeat them?
    Learning from past mistakes would mean not trying to defend an arbitrary exchange rate against another major currency and instead letting the pound fall.
    Arbitrary exchange rates don’t work, but neither does devaluing to prosperity.

    Perhaps not, but as I asked earlier, is there much point to panicking over short fluctuations in the pounds value on the currency markets?
    Don't worry chaps, the budget only caused a small run on the pound.
    I agree with lucky on this, a drop today says what if it’s all recovered with more besides over the next 3 weeks? It’s only long term trends on such markets to pay attention to isn’t it?

    Why don’t we have a monthly feature 23rd of each month, from date of this announcement monthly trend of £ v $ and pound v Euro, Easily settles this argument?
    There is an obvious negative market reaction to this budget today. That's politically significant. It's somewhat churlish to argue otherwise.

    Who knows what will happen in the next month and how future movements will relate to today.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 5,513
    Chris said:

    I'm no economist, but if there is money available to spend on tax cuts (which there isn't, of course) then surely it makes more sense to spend it on raising the threshold at which people pay income tax? Those who benefit the most would spend it (they need to). Giving a tax cut to those who earn enough to pay 45% on some of their income is not only immoral during the current economic malaise, but also ineffective as they may well hoard it or blow it on stuff that doesn't boost the real economy.

    You haven't quite got the point of this Toryism thing, have you?
    I have, really.

    It's fuck the poor and those on benefits, isn't it, in a nutshell?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,598
    Leon said:

    Driver said:

    PeterM said:

    Jonathan said:

    It's a remarkable achievement in less than two weeks to make people yearn for the stability, competence and political care of Boris Johnson.

    whats remarkable is since Blair each Pm has been worse than the last...from Brown to Cameron to May to Johnson to Truss....at this rate we will soon be led by someone akin to the President in the film idiocracy
    Cameron was better than Brown.
    No.
    Boris was better than Cameron. TMay and Brown
    Nah, he broke his own law. That's a fail.
  • We will see a 20 point Labour lead soon.

    This budget has been an absolute disaster politically
  • I think this proves that a PM and Chancellor should not have shagged each other.

    As Lord Acton once remarked to his valet? (Or was it Lady Gladstone to her maid?)
  • I'm no economist, but if there is money available to spend on tax cuts (which there isn't, of course) then surely it makes more sense to spend it on raising the threshold at which people pay income tax? Those who benefit the most would spend it (they need to). Giving a tax cut to those who earn enough to pay 45% on some of their income is not only immoral during the current economic malaise, but also ineffective as they may well hoard it or blow it on stuff that doesn't boost the real economy.

    The other thing would have been to raise the minimum wage substantially and say to companies that complained "look, you got a reversal of a 6% tax increase. Here's the Quid for the Quo".
  • Leon said:

    Driver said:

    PeterM said:

    Jonathan said:

    It's a remarkable achievement in less than two weeks to make people yearn for the stability, competence and political care of Boris Johnson.

    whats remarkable is since Blair each Pm has been worse than the last...from Brown to Cameron to May to Johnson to Truss....at this rate we will soon be led by someone akin to the President in the film idiocracy
    Cameron was better than Brown.
    No.
    Boris was better than Cameron. TMay and Brown
    Cameron was a good PM until Brexit. Second only to Blair, the greatest PM of the last fifty years
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 8,571

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    MaxPB said:

    Jonathan said:

    The Tories spent much of the last decade talking about paying down debt. Going crazy on the credit card now is completely at odds with that message.

    It reminds me of the Lib Dems and tuition fees.

    Yes, this feels to me like a generational error for the Tories. The brand for competence was trashed by Boris quite badly and now the brand for sound money has been set on fire by his successor. If the Tories are competent and good with the nation's finances, people will rightly ask themselves why they deserve our votes.
    MaxPB said:

    Jonathan said:

    The Tories spent much of the last decade talking about paying down debt. Going crazy on the credit card now is completely at odds with that message.

    It reminds me of the Lib Dems and tuition fees.

    Yes, this feels to me like a generational error for the Tories. The brand for competence was trashed by Boris quite badly and now the brand for sound money has been set on fire by his successor. If the Tories are competent and good with the nation's finances, people will rightly ask themselves why they deserve our votes.
    I get the impression that Truss and Kwateng think they are being clever, they prioritised trying to present a fresh look to shake off 12 years of baggage, but ended up undermining one of the core values underpinning their party.

    Sometime those that consider themselves clever can be really, really dumb.
    Dumb or narrow minded, over confident, arrogant? They strike me as people who will turn up on political documentaries in twenty years, creases on their brow date back to 2023 24, saying “and there we were, so utterly convinced in our own minds we were doing the right thing.”
    Kwateng's lack of experience certainly showed today. I can't imagine any serious politician of the past doing this. He comes across very poorly I thought. Very arrogant.
    Arrogant really is an emotive term - over confident and inexperienced, and courageous probably Yes Minister way of putting it.

    It also feels like this new government are like minded mates, all agreeing with each other when they get together, egging each other on in a way - when far stronger template for government is to include people who will give you blood on the carpet discussions, to, whatever the opposite of egging you on is.
    I accept the point about arrogant. But usually successful politicians show some kind of sympathy and connections with the electorate. I get the impression from Kwateng that he is somehow above us and if we don't get his master plan it's our fault not his.
    It pains me because on paper he looks really good.

    Economic historian, writer of decently reviewed books.

    But he was considered a waste of space in BEIS and now he is will be associated with these kamakwasi economics.
    Puts me off too - said it from the beginning.

    Not prepared to write him off after one mini budget, but I think perhaps there is a problem that he doesn't believe what he's saying, and therefore doesn't persuade and convince the audience, and more seriously, perhaps doesn't actually get what he's been asked to come up with. Some of this mini-budget maybe reads like what he thinks Truss wants, whereas presumably what she actually wants is the biggest possible rocket up the economy for her buck.

    Hope he's not going to be this Government's Athlete's Foot.
    This is just brilliant. The markets have reacted badly because Kwasi 'doesn't believe what he's saying'.

    Just believe and it will work.
    Again Lucky has put his finger on the truth - there was something about Kwarteng delivery that made you think it wasn’t “his” budget, but delivering it for a boss. Maybe he has eye on next Tory leader betting, playing his cards right for a brucey bonus.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,598
    What does success look like? Not this.


  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 1,322

    Chris said:

    I'm no economist, but if there is money available to spend on tax cuts (which there isn't, of course) then surely it makes more sense to spend it on raising the threshold at which people pay income tax? Those who benefit the most would spend it (they need to). Giving a tax cut to those who earn enough to pay 45% on some of their income is not only immoral during the current economic malaise, but also ineffective as they may well hoard it or blow it on stuff that doesn't boost the real economy.

    You haven't quite got the point of this Toryism thing, have you?
    I have, really.

    It's fuck the poor and those on benefits, isn't it, in a nutshell?
    Your suggestion of increasing the income tax threshold has been tory policy for years, and the threshold has increased markedly over the last twelve.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,786
    BETTING ADVICE

    Aliens might influence the US elections


    "2022 may be poised to have the greatest political October Surprise in the history of United States elections.

    That’s right. Unidentified flying objects dumped smack into the middle of a national midterm election. UFOs as a political issue"

    https://thedebrief.org/here-comes-the-october-surprise/
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 19,569

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    MaxPB said:

    Jonathan said:

    The Tories spent much of the last decade talking about paying down debt. Going crazy on the credit card now is completely at odds with that message.

    It reminds me of the Lib Dems and tuition fees.

    Yes, this feels to me like a generational error for the Tories. The brand for competence was trashed by Boris quite badly and now the brand for sound money has been set on fire by his successor. If the Tories are competent and good with the nation's finances, people will rightly ask themselves why they deserve our votes.
    MaxPB said:

    Jonathan said:

    The Tories spent much of the last decade talking about paying down debt. Going crazy on the credit card now is completely at odds with that message.

    It reminds me of the Lib Dems and tuition fees.

    Yes, this feels to me like a generational error for the Tories. The brand for competence was trashed by Boris quite badly and now the brand for sound money has been set on fire by his successor. If the Tories are competent and good with the nation's finances, people will rightly ask themselves why they deserve our votes.
    I get the impression that Truss and Kwateng think they are being clever, they prioritised trying to present a fresh look to shake off 12 years of baggage, but ended up undermining one of the core values underpinning their party.

    Sometime those that consider themselves clever can be really, really dumb.
    Dumb or narrow minded, over confident, arrogant? They strike me as people who will turn up on political documentaries in twenty years, creases on their brow date back to 2023 24, saying “and there we were, so utterly convinced in our own minds we were doing the right thing.”
    Kwateng's lack of experience certainly showed today. I can't imagine any serious politician of the past doing this. He comes across very poorly I thought. Very arrogant.
    Arrogant really is an emotive term - over confident and inexperienced, and courageous probably Yes Minister way of putting it.

    It also feels like this new government are like minded mates, all agreeing with each other when they get together, egging each other on in a way - when far stronger template for government is to include people who will give you blood on the carpet discussions, to, whatever the opposite of egging you on is.
    I accept the point about arrogant. But usually successful politicians show some kind of sympathy and connections with the electorate. I get the impression from Kwateng that he is somehow above us and if we don't get his master plan it's our fault not his.
    I totally agree with you, K has yet to do empathy. Boris did empathy, but he was a cad and shyster so maybe put empathy out of fashion. K nonchalant commons delivery of this budget didn’t sell it, so yes, another reason why it is so quickly disliked and untrusted by voters.
    I don't think he needs to do empathy. He needs to do 'competency' big time though.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 10,394
    Leon said:

    Driver said:

    PeterM said:

    Jonathan said:

    It's a remarkable achievement in less than two weeks to make people yearn for the stability, competence and political care of Boris Johnson.

    whats remarkable is since Blair each Pm has been worse than the last...from Brown to Cameron to May to Johnson to Truss....at this rate we will soon be led by someone akin to the President in the film idiocracy
    Cameron was better than Brown.
    No.
    Boris was better than Cameron. TMay and Brown
    No. I agree with the monotonic decline theory of PMs from Blair onwards.
  • I'm no economist, but if there is money available to spend on tax cuts (which there isn't, of course) then surely it makes more sense to spend it on raising the threshold at which people pay income tax? Those who benefit the most would spend it (they need to). Giving a tax cut to those who earn enough to pay 45% on some of their income is not only immoral during the current economic malaise, but also ineffective as they may well hoard it or blow it on stuff that doesn't boost the real economy.

    One other thing about the threshold on paying income tax. Not only does it benefit people at the bottom end of the scale, it also benefits people who set up their own companies and pay themselves the threshold to avoid paying income tax, and take money out via dividends. I suspect that is why the Government didn't do that given the numbers involved.
  • Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    MaxPB said:

    Jonathan said:

    The Tories spent much of the last decade talking about paying down debt. Going crazy on the credit card now is completely at odds with that message.

    It reminds me of the Lib Dems and tuition fees.

    Yes, this feels to me like a generational error for the Tories. The brand for competence was trashed by Boris quite badly and now the brand for sound money has been set on fire by his successor. If the Tories are competent and good with the nation's finances, people will rightly ask themselves why they deserve our votes.
    MaxPB said:

    Jonathan said:

    The Tories spent much of the last decade talking about paying down debt. Going crazy on the credit card now is completely at odds with that message.

    It reminds me of the Lib Dems and tuition fees.

    Yes, this feels to me like a generational error for the Tories. The brand for competence was trashed by Boris quite badly and now the brand for sound money has been set on fire by his successor. If the Tories are competent and good with the nation's finances, people will rightly ask themselves why they deserve our votes.
    I get the impression that Truss and Kwateng think they are being clever, they prioritised trying to present a fresh look to shake off 12 years of baggage, but ended up undermining one of the core values underpinning their party.

    Sometime those that consider themselves clever can be really, really dumb.
    Dumb or narrow minded, over confident, arrogant? They strike me as people who will turn up on political documentaries in twenty years, creases on their brow date back to 2023 24, saying “and there we were, so utterly convinced in our own minds we were doing the right thing.”
    Kwateng's lack of experience certainly showed today. I can't imagine any serious politician of the past doing this. He comes across very poorly I thought. Very arrogant.
    Arrogant really is an emotive term - over confident and inexperienced, and courageous probably Yes Minister way of putting it.

    It also feels like this new government are like minded mates, all agreeing with each other when they get together, egging each other on in a way - when far stronger template for government is to include people who will give you blood on the carpet discussions, to, whatever the opposite of egging you on is.
    I accept the point about arrogant. But usually successful politicians show some kind of sympathy and connections with the electorate. I get the impression from Kwateng that he is somehow above us and if we don't get his master plan it's our fault not his.
    It pains me because on paper he looks really good.

    Economic historian, writer of decently reviewed books.

    But he was considered a waste of space in BEIS and now he is will be associated with these kamakwasi economics.
    Puts me off too - said it from the beginning.

    Not prepared to write him off after one mini budget, but I think perhaps there is a problem that he doesn't believe what he's saying, and therefore doesn't persuade and convince the audience, and more seriously, perhaps doesn't actually get what he's been asked to come up with. Some of this mini-budget maybe reads like what he thinks Truss wants, whereas presumably what she actually wants is the biggest possible rocket up the economy for her buck.

    Hope he's not going to be this Government's Athlete's Foot.
    This is just brilliant. The markets have reacted badly because Kwasi 'doesn't believe what he's saying'.

    Just believe and it will work.
    Again Lucky has put his finger on the truth - there was something about Kwarteng delivery that made you think it wasn’t “his” budget, but delivering it for a boss. Maybe he has eye on next Tory leader betting, playing his cards right for a brucey bonus.
    I didn't watch him deliver it - too busy working.

    But diddums for Kwarteng. His budget will go down as one of the great fails of our post-war macroeconomic policymaking. If it was me delivering that, I'd think I'd want ownership of it.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 42,968

    Leon said:

    Driver said:

    PeterM said:

    Jonathan said:

    It's a remarkable achievement in less than two weeks to make people yearn for the stability, competence and political care of Boris Johnson.

    whats remarkable is since Blair each Pm has been worse than the last...from Brown to Cameron to May to Johnson to Truss....at this rate we will soon be led by someone akin to the President in the film idiocracy
    Cameron was better than Brown.
    No.
    Boris was better than Cameron. TMay and Brown
    Cameron was a good PM until Brexit. Second only to Blair, the greatest PM of the last fifty years
    The things you hate about the present are mostly the legacy of Blair's failures.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,786

    Leon said:

    Driver said:

    PeterM said:

    Jonathan said:

    It's a remarkable achievement in less than two weeks to make people yearn for the stability, competence and political care of Boris Johnson.

    whats remarkable is since Blair each Pm has been worse than the last...from Brown to Cameron to May to Johnson to Truss....at this rate we will soon be led by someone akin to the President in the film idiocracy
    Cameron was better than Brown.
    No.
    Boris was better than Cameron. TMay and Brown
    Cameron was a good PM until Brexit. Second only to Blair, the greatest PM of the last fifty years
    Blair cannot be counted as "great", due to the Iraq War, and also his total inability to change the UK in any significant way, apart from ramping up immigration (which led directly to Brexit, something he fiercely opposed)

    A successful election winner, sure, but as a an actual politician-in-office Blair's record is dire
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,766

    Remember the images of Kwasi from the funeral on Monday.

    This guy is the guy that is going to rip up economic orthodoxy? The one sweating, giggling and jabbering to himself during our 70-year monarchs funeral?

    It's absolutely tragic how the country has got to this point. The only slight glimmering of fun will be watching Barty wriggle and squirm through his thousands of posts. That's going to be fun.

    I truly believe that the Brexiteer takeover of the Tory Party is going to result in the trading of our finances for decades. Not simply because of Brexit itself but because of the calibre of politician it has bequeathed us to "run" the country. The Tory Party has disappeared down the same rabbit hole as the GOP.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 36,198
    rcs1000 said:

    Personally, I'm pissed that the top rate of stamp duty has not been cut.

    I mean, if you're going to screw the poor over for the benefit of the rich, at least do it properly.

    I'm annoyed that they didn't get rid of the idiotic £100k childcare and allowance withdrawal. That would unlock more economic activity than the additional rate cut.
  • Leon said:

    "The Pound to Dollar rate reached an all-time low of $1.054 on 25th Feb 1985."

    Will that be breached? Gonna be close

    Summer 2022 - Heat Wave

    Fall 2022 - Pound Plunge

    Am feeling sorry for IanB and others now traveling abroad from UK, esp. in USA.

    Have been in same situation in reverse, and NOT fun.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 10,394

    Leon said:

    Driver said:

    PeterM said:

    Jonathan said:

    It's a remarkable achievement in less than two weeks to make people yearn for the stability, competence and political care of Boris Johnson.

    whats remarkable is since Blair each Pm has been worse than the last...from Brown to Cameron to May to Johnson to Truss....at this rate we will soon be led by someone akin to the President in the film idiocracy
    Cameron was better than Brown.
    No.
    Boris was better than Cameron. TMay and Brown
    No. I agree with the monotonic decline theory of PMs from Blair onwards.
    In fact, let's look only at Tory PMs to take the party political dimension out of it. I would assert that Tory PMs have been on a monotonic declining path since Thatcher.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 19,569

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    MaxPB said:

    Jonathan said:

    The Tories spent much of the last decade talking about paying down debt. Going crazy on the credit card now is completely at odds with that message.

    It reminds me of the Lib Dems and tuition fees.

    Yes, this feels to me like a generational error for the Tories. The brand for competence was trashed by Boris quite badly and now the brand for sound money has been set on fire by his successor. If the Tories are competent and good with the nation's finances, people will rightly ask themselves why they deserve our votes.
    MaxPB said:

    Jonathan said:

    The Tories spent much of the last decade talking about paying down debt. Going crazy on the credit card now is completely at odds with that message.

    It reminds me of the Lib Dems and tuition fees.

    Yes, this feels to me like a generational error for the Tories. The brand for competence was trashed by Boris quite badly and now the brand for sound money has been set on fire by his successor. If the Tories are competent and good with the nation's finances, people will rightly ask themselves why they deserve our votes.
    I get the impression that Truss and Kwateng think they are being clever, they prioritised trying to present a fresh look to shake off 12 years of baggage, but ended up undermining one of the core values underpinning their party.

    Sometime those that consider themselves clever can be really, really dumb.
    Dumb or narrow minded, over confident, arrogant? They strike me as people who will turn up on political documentaries in twenty years, creases on their brow date back to 2023 24, saying “and there we were, so utterly convinced in our own minds we were doing the right thing.”
    Kwateng's lack of experience certainly showed today. I can't imagine any serious politician of the past doing this. He comes across very poorly I thought. Very arrogant.
    Arrogant really is an emotive term - over confident and inexperienced, and courageous probably Yes Minister way of putting it.

    It also feels like this new government are like minded mates, all agreeing with each other when they get together, egging each other on in a way - when far stronger template for government is to include people who will give you blood on the carpet discussions, to, whatever the opposite of egging you on is.
    I accept the point about arrogant. But usually successful politicians show some kind of sympathy and connections with the electorate. I get the impression from Kwateng that he is somehow above us and if we don't get his master plan it's our fault not his.
    It pains me because on paper he looks really good.

    Economic historian, writer of decently reviewed books.

    But he was considered a waste of space in BEIS and now he is will be associated with these kamakwasi economics.
    Puts me off too - said it from the beginning.

    Not prepared to write him off after one mini budget, but I think perhaps there is a problem that he doesn't believe what he's saying, and therefore doesn't persuade and convince the audience, and more seriously, perhaps doesn't actually get what he's been asked to come up with. Some of this mini-budget maybe reads like what he thinks Truss wants, whereas presumably what she actually wants is the biggest possible rocket up the economy for her buck.

    Hope he's not going to be this Government's Athlete's Foot.
    This is just brilliant. The markets have reacted badly because Kwasi 'doesn't believe what he's saying'.

    Just believe and it will work.
    Again Lucky has put his finger on the truth - there was something about Kwarteng delivery that made you think it wasn’t “his” budget, but delivering it for a boss. Maybe he has eye on next Tory leader betting, playing his cards right for a brucey bonus.
    I will get off here soon as I'm conscious that I'm being far too negative myself, but I think at the moment what he's setting himself up for is a future doing chatshows as 'that Chancellor' where he does a nice self-effacing turn being 'in on the joke' about how awful he was.

    Whatever else it is mind, it sure ain't buying an election victory.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,786

    Leon said:

    "The Pound to Dollar rate reached an all-time low of $1.054 on 25th Feb 1985."

    Will that be breached? Gonna be close

    Summer 2022 - Heat Wave

    Fall 2022 - Pound Plunge

    Am feeling sorry for IanB and others now traveling abroad from UK, esp. in USA.

    Have been in same situation in reverse, and NOT fun.
    Yes, I'm due in the States for two weeks in October. Nearly all of it is free, thank God, but I was going to extend the trip on my own dime. Now? Er, no

    Maybe a couple of days staying at a friend's ranch, then I'm outa there

    Hotels were PAINFULLY expensive when I crossed the Deep South in the spring. Christ knows what they cost now
  • Leon said:

    Driver said:

    PeterM said:

    Jonathan said:

    It's a remarkable achievement in less than two weeks to make people yearn for the stability, competence and political care of Boris Johnson.

    whats remarkable is since Blair each Pm has been worse than the last...from Brown to Cameron to May to Johnson to Truss....at this rate we will soon be led by someone akin to the President in the film idiocracy
    Cameron was better than Brown.
    No.
    Boris was better than Cameron. TMay and Brown
    Cameron was a good PM until Brexit. Second only to Blair, the greatest PM of the last fifty years
    The things you hate about the present are mostly the legacy of Blair's failures.
    No they aren't.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,598
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Driver said:

    PeterM said:

    Jonathan said:

    It's a remarkable achievement in less than two weeks to make people yearn for the stability, competence and political care of Boris Johnson.

    whats remarkable is since Blair each Pm has been worse than the last...from Brown to Cameron to May to Johnson to Truss....at this rate we will soon be led by someone akin to the President in the film idiocracy
    Cameron was better than Brown.
    No.
    Boris was better than Cameron. TMay and Brown
    Cameron was a good PM until Brexit. Second only to Blair, the greatest PM of the last fifty years
    Blair cannot be counted as "great", due to the Iraq War, and also his total inability to change the UK in any significant way, apart from ramping up immigration (which led directly to Brexit, something he fiercely opposed)

    A successful election winner, sure, but as a an actual politician-in-office Blair's record is dire
    Every PM since would give their right arm for a tiny fraction of Blair's record. Not sure Truss is going to get an AAA rating any time soon.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 3,379

    Phil said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    Chris said:

    I am going to get a nice windfall from this budget.

    And I am going to invest it in the stock market to inflate my own wealth further.

    Hardly stimulating the economy is it?

    I am absolutely delighted the Tories have been able to fix the transport, housing and tuition fee issues that were holding you back to the point you can now talk about your own wealth instead.

    You must be delighted. I'm happy for you. Well done you.
    Unlike some, I actually care about those around me.

    I do better under the Tories, society does not. And young people don't in general either.
    Don't feel so down on yourself, society is made up of people like you. You doing better and others who work hard doing better makes society better. Its a virtuous circle.

    Pruning back the taxes that hold everyone, even those on Minimum Wage, back allows everyone who works for a living to be better off. Just like you.
    Is this the new CCHQ script? I am not voting Tory until the current lot are gone. Bring Cameron and co back and I'll consider it like I did in 2005/2010

    (I know Cameron wasn't the leader in 2005 at the GE)
    No script. I have no connection to CCHQ which is why I'm frequently critical on Tory policy when I disagree with it, like when Sunak was in charge.

    Personally I think it's fantastic that anyone working for a living, from those on Minimum Wage onwards, can now keep more of their money?

    Do you agree with that? Or would you like to tax even those on Minimum Wage by even more?
    We all rely on public services. They have to be paid for. Those on lowest incomes rely on government spending more than most. So yes, those on the minimum wage should also contribute to funding those services. Of course if the government wanted to help those people it could have raised the personal allowance but instead it targeted its giveaway at people on £150k+. Who are least likely to spend it, and who don't need the help right now.
    Taxes have been ratchetted higher and higher for twenty years. And the result is the highest tax rates for 74 years and just as Laffer predicts we have seen growth stall to anemic levels as a result.

    Putting up taxes doesn't lead to growth. The high tax experiment has failed, it's time to return to what works.
    From someone who has already admitted he doesn't know where on the so-called Laffer curve we are.

    And now claiming that we have to make a dramatic change on the basis of an assumption about what he doesn't know. And characterises that as a a "return to what works."

    Sheer gibberish.
    Economics involves uncertainty, anyone who claims otherwise is being dishonest.

    I believe we are to the right of the peak of the Laffer Curve and have given my argument as to why.

    Do I "know" that for certain? No, its impossible to do so. But we have IMHO very good evidence to demonstrate that.

    Nobody here who disagrees can possibly "know" for certain that we aren't to the right of the peak either. All we can do is make an educated guess and hope we're right.
    You don't even know that there is such a thing as either a 'peak' or a 'curve'.
    There's just the observation that sometimes cutting taxes results in an increased tax take in that particular case.
    There is no evidence at all for anything more than that.
    Of course we know there's a curve. Do you think we'd generate more or less in taxes if we had 100% tax rates?

    The question is the shape and rates of the curve, not the fact that there is a curve.
    Many have debunked the correlation that you and Laffer insists works. You have adopted your usual stopped clock strategy to prove its validity.
    Nobody has debunked Laffer, people dispute it but disputing something and debunking it are two completely different things.

    As it stands, we have the highest tax rates and most anaemic long term growth rates in three quarters of a century. You can argue that's correlation instead of causation if you please, but that doesn't make my view that one is causing the other wrong.

    I said the Tories were wrong to put up taxes, and tore up my membership as a result. I will stand by my principles, high taxes doesn't work.
    This is infantile.

    Firstly, the Laffer curve is about the relationship between tax rate & tax revenue. It has nothing to do with GDP growth.

    Secondly, Laffer is obviously true at the extremes. But in the wide middle range of possible tax takes there’s no evidence for any strong relationship at all & the point of maximum revenue is probably much higher than current rates.

    If you want to talk about the relationship between GDP & tax rates by all means do so, but Laffer is tangential at best.

    Of course Laffer is something to do with GDP growth.

    If you have lower taxes, which leads to more growth, which leads to more revenues by taking a smaller slice of a bigger pie, then that is how the Laffer curve works past its peak.

    What evidence do you have that the point of maximum revenue is probably much higher than current rates? And when current rates are at their highest in 74 years, and when under projections tax rates even after today's announcements will still be higher than in any of the past forty years before the pandemic, then just how high do you intend for taxes to get before we get out of problems economically?
    Under Osborne HMRC did an analysis of the Laffer curve. They estimated the optimal rate was 45-47%. Above 50% there was a sharp impact as people believed that the government taking more than half their money was “unfair”

    Clearly GIGO applies, and I have no doubt that the assumptions were likely manipulated, but the answer feels instinctively reasonable.

  • OllyT said:

    Remember the images of Kwasi from the funeral on Monday.

    This guy is the guy that is going to rip up economic orthodoxy? The one sweating, giggling and jabbering to himself during our 70-year monarchs funeral?

    It's absolutely tragic how the country has got to this point. The only slight glimmering of fun will be watching Barty wriggle and squirm through his thousands of posts. That's going to be fun.

    I truly believe that the Brexiteer takeover of the Tory Party is going to result in the trading of our finances for decades. Not simply because of Brexit itself but because of the calibre of politician it has bequeathed us to "run" the country. The Tory Party has disappeared down the same rabbit hole as the GOP.
    I fear you are right and I backed Brexit. It's hollowed out the decision-making class and we are left with the ERG faction, known thickies, influencing the big decisions in big ways.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 8,571
    edited September 23

    Leon said:

    Driver said:

    PeterM said:

    Jonathan said:

    It's a remarkable achievement in less than two weeks to make people yearn for the stability, competence and political care of Boris Johnson.

    whats remarkable is since Blair each Pm has been worse than the last...from Brown to Cameron to May to Johnson to Truss....at this rate we will soon be led by someone akin to the President in the film idiocracy
    Cameron was better than Brown.
    No.
    Boris was better than Cameron. TMay and Brown
    Cameron was a good PM until Brexit. Second only to Blair, the greatest PM of the last fifty years
    I really liked Dave - I liked despite he was so rich and posh he was still a moderate Tory, standing up to his party to push a woke agenda. I probably would have voted for him in 2015 if I was old enough. It does mean though I still have immaculate record of never voting Tory 😇

    Dave was a bit dim though. Couple of instances, had breakfast meeting with ordinary everyday people struggling to pay their energy bills, so came up with seventies labour socialism to fix the energy markets and had to have his mic turned off for a day whilst coalition government explained he misspoke. Another time on government businesses in Bali or Hawaii he stopped losing money on Ipad slots to read some news and spoke out about tax dodging, again his minders had to turn his mic off to explain to every Tory donor he didn’t really mean a clamp down - not even for Labour Party comedians with irritating fake laugh.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 36,198

    Leon said:

    Driver said:

    PeterM said:

    Jonathan said:

    It's a remarkable achievement in less than two weeks to make people yearn for the stability, competence and political care of Boris Johnson.

    whats remarkable is since Blair each Pm has been worse than the last...from Brown to Cameron to May to Johnson to Truss....at this rate we will soon be led by someone akin to the President in the film idiocracy
    Cameron was better than Brown.
    No.
    Boris was better than Cameron. TMay and Brown
    Cameron was a good PM until Brexit. Second only to Blair, the greatest PM of the last fifty years
    The things you hate about the present are mostly the legacy of Blair's failures.
    No they aren't.
    University fees and house prices definitely are. The housing boom of the 00s and landlordism that Labour encouraged is why housing is so expensive today.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,786
    Jonathan said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Driver said:

    PeterM said:

    Jonathan said:

    It's a remarkable achievement in less than two weeks to make people yearn for the stability, competence and political care of Boris Johnson.

    whats remarkable is since Blair each Pm has been worse than the last...from Brown to Cameron to May to Johnson to Truss....at this rate we will soon be led by someone akin to the President in the film idiocracy
    Cameron was better than Brown.
    No.
    Boris was better than Cameron. TMay and Brown
    Cameron was a good PM until Brexit. Second only to Blair, the greatest PM of the last fifty years
    Blair cannot be counted as "great", due to the Iraq War, and also his total inability to change the UK in any significant way, apart from ramping up immigration (which led directly to Brexit, something he fiercely opposed)

    A successful election winner, sure, but as a an actual politician-in-office Blair's record is dire
    Every PM since would give their right arm for a tiny fraction of Blair's record. Not sure Truss is going to get an AAA rating any time soon.
    What record?

    Everything Blair touched has turned to dross

    Remember how Devolution was meant to Kill Scottish Nationalism stone dead?

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 36,198
    Leon said:

    Jonathan said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Driver said:

    PeterM said:

    Jonathan said:

    It's a remarkable achievement in less than two weeks to make people yearn for the stability, competence and political care of Boris Johnson.

    whats remarkable is since Blair each Pm has been worse than the last...from Brown to Cameron to May to Johnson to Truss....at this rate we will soon be led by someone akin to the President in the film idiocracy
    Cameron was better than Brown.
    No.
    Boris was better than Cameron. TMay and Brown
    Cameron was a good PM until Brexit. Second only to Blair, the greatest PM of the last fifty years
    Blair cannot be counted as "great", due to the Iraq War, and also his total inability to change the UK in any significant way, apart from ramping up immigration (which led directly to Brexit, something he fiercely opposed)

    A successful election winner, sure, but as a an actual politician-in-office Blair's record is dire
    Every PM since would give their right arm for a tiny fraction of Blair's record. Not sure Truss is going to get an AAA rating any time soon.
    What record?

    Everything Blair touched has turned to dross

    Remember how Devolution was meant to Kill Scottish Nationalism stone dead?

    Landlordism is probably the most toxic part of the New Labour domestic legacy. It's locked millions of young people out of the housing market and allowed old people to leech off generations below them.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 3,379
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    UK tax burden as share of GDP



    From the IFS analysis. https://ifs.org.uk/articles/mini-budget-response

    So this horrendously risky tax cutting budget has taken us from the highest rate in 74 years to a tax rate still higher than any of the past 40 pre-pandemic years?

    Taxes are still too high. They should be cut further still, but this is a good start.
    The problem, Bart, is that they're cutting the wrong taxes. There's simply no need to give people like me a £15k+ tax cut. That money would be better used cutting some other tax that is going to have a much higher multiplier.
    Correct me if I'm wrong but just a few months ago weren't you considering moving to Switzerland, which would have meant the government loses all of your taxes?

    If the tax changes encourage more people like your good self to be paying British taxes instead of Swiss, German, Singaporean or American taxes then that could boost revenues overall even while you benefit personally.
    We're thinking of leaving the UK for Jen's (and numbers 2 and 3) late primary and secondary schooling. Switzerland, especially the more conservative Italian, are appealing to us for those reasons. The tax cut doesn't really change our thinking very much.
    First time I have heard of “culture” given as a reason for moving to Lugano!
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,233

    Leon said:

    Driver said:

    PeterM said:

    Jonathan said:

    It's a remarkable achievement in less than two weeks to make people yearn for the stability, competence and political care of Boris Johnson.

    whats remarkable is since Blair each Pm has been worse than the last...from Brown to Cameron to May to Johnson to Truss....at this rate we will soon be led by someone akin to the President in the film idiocracy
    Cameron was better than Brown.
    No.
    Boris was better than Cameron. TMay and Brown
    Cameron was a good PM until Brexit. Second only to Blair, the greatest PM of the last fifty years
    I really liked Dave - I liked despite he was so rich and posh he was still a moderate Tory, standing up to his party to push a woke agenda. I probably would have voted for him in 2015 if I was old enough. It does mean though I still have immaculate record of never voting Tory 😇

    Dave was a bit dim though. Couple of instances, had breakfast meeting with ordinary everyday people struggling to pay their energy bills, so came up with seventies labour socialism to fix the energy markets and had to have his mic turned off for a day whilst coalition government explained he misspoke. Another time on government businesses in Bali or Hawaii he stopped losing money on Ipad slots to read some news and spoke out about tax dodging, again his minders had to turn his mic off to explain to every Tory donor he didn’t really mean a clamp down - not even for Labour Party comedians with irritating fake laugh.
    Etonian self-confidence undid him. It was why he fuc*ed up so badly with Brexit.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,598
    Leon said:

    Jonathan said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Driver said:

    PeterM said:

    Jonathan said:

    It's a remarkable achievement in less than two weeks to make people yearn for the stability, competence and political care of Boris Johnson.

    whats remarkable is since Blair each Pm has been worse than the last...from Brown to Cameron to May to Johnson to Truss....at this rate we will soon be led by someone akin to the President in the film idiocracy
    Cameron was better than Brown.
    No.
    Boris was better than Cameron. TMay and Brown
    Cameron was a good PM until Brexit. Second only to Blair, the greatest PM of the last fifty years
    Blair cannot be counted as "great", due to the Iraq War, and also his total inability to change the UK in any significant way, apart from ramping up immigration (which led directly to Brexit, something he fiercely opposed)

    A successful election winner, sure, but as a an actual politician-in-office Blair's record is dire
    Every PM since would give their right arm for a tiny fraction of Blair's record. Not sure Truss is going to get an AAA rating any time soon.
    What record?

    Everything Blair touched has turned to dross

    Remember how Devolution was meant to Kill Scottish Nationalism stone dead?

    Northern Ireland?

    Personally, I quite liked not having an economy in the toilet and being able to be treated quickly at hospital.

    Winning things like the Olympics was good for morale too. My gay friends benefited hugely from his civil reforms.

    Times were better with Blair.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 2,876
    Leon said:

    Jonathan said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Driver said:

    PeterM said:

    Jonathan said:

    It's a remarkable achievement in less than two weeks to make people yearn for the stability, competence and political care of Boris Johnson.

    whats remarkable is since Blair each Pm has been worse than the last...from Brown to Cameron to May to Johnson to Truss....at this rate we will soon be led by someone akin to the President in the film idiocracy
    Cameron was better than Brown.
    No.
    Boris was better than Cameron. TMay and Brown
    Cameron was a good PM until Brexit. Second only to Blair, the greatest PM of the last fifty years
    Blair cannot be counted as "great", due to the Iraq War, and also his total inability to change the UK in any significant way, apart from ramping up immigration (which led directly to Brexit, something he fiercely opposed)

    A successful election winner, sure, but as a an actual politician-in-office Blair's record is dire
    Every PM since would give their right arm for a tiny fraction of Blair's record. Not sure Truss is going to get an AAA rating any time soon.
    What record?

    Everything Blair touched has turned to dross

    Remember how Devolution was meant to Kill Scottish Nationalism stone dead?

    Devolution of power was the aim for Scotland and Wales, seems to be on the way or completed it.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,786
    Jonathan said:

    Leon said:

    Jonathan said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Driver said:

    PeterM said:

    Jonathan said:

    It's a remarkable achievement in less than two weeks to make people yearn for the stability, competence and political care of Boris Johnson.

    whats remarkable is since Blair each Pm has been worse than the last...from Brown to Cameron to May to Johnson to Truss....at this rate we will soon be led by someone akin to the President in the film idiocracy
    Cameron was better than Brown.
    No.
    Boris was better than Cameron. TMay and Brown
    Cameron was a good PM until Brexit. Second only to Blair, the greatest PM of the last fifty years
    Blair cannot be counted as "great", due to the Iraq War, and also his total inability to change the UK in any significant way, apart from ramping up immigration (which led directly to Brexit, something he fiercely opposed)

    A successful election winner, sure, but as a an actual politician-in-office Blair's record is dire
    Every PM since would give their right arm for a tiny fraction of Blair's record. Not sure Truss is going to get an AAA rating any time soon.
    What record?

    Everything Blair touched has turned to dross

    Remember how Devolution was meant to Kill Scottish Nationalism stone dead?

    Northern Ireland?

    Personally, I quite liked not having an economy in the toilet and being able to be treated quickly at hospital.

    Winning things like the Olympics was good for morale too. My gay friends benefited hugely from his civil reforms.

    Times were better with Blair.
    He inherited a healthy economy - "a golden economic legacy" - and slowly blew it

    He won huge majorities and did kinda nothing


    I agree Northern Ireland is to his credit, tho he built on the hard work of others. Nonetheless that is one place his charm did work some magic

    I regret this failure because Blair had the intelligence and plausibility - and the MPs - to do great things. Something strange stopped him being a Labour version of Thatcher. A truly transformative prime minister. There is no "Blairism", tellingly

    All these years later I'm still not sure what stopped him. Was it really just grumpy Gordon Brown?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,598
    So if we had a reset button, which could take the country back to date in the past 30 years we would all press it. We perhaps would not agree on the date we went back to, but we would all press it.

    Things are worse today than they were yesterday. That's a serious political problem that someone needs to fix.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 48,162

    Jonathan said:

    This current crop of Tory leaders do not have the memory of what can go wrong, unlike the previous generation. Some of whom had a front row seat.


    It’s an excellent point. Is the current government prepared to learn from past mistakes, or not listen and repeat them?
    The real question in that scene is why was David Cameron wearing such a baggy suit?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 48,162

    I think the most worrying thing about the dire outlook for the public finances is that all the huge spending pressures (which Kwarteng almost completely ignored) haven't gone away. Departmental spending plans, already under very severe pressure, are going to be further kiboshed by inflation. Defence spending, already looking low given Ukraine, is going to be further kiboshed by the fall in sterling relative to the US dollar. The energy-cost crisis is probably not going to disappear by the end of the current, eye-wateringly expensive, programme of Truss handouts. The NHS backlog, despite Therese Coffey's new targets, is not going to solve itself. Measures to mitigate the social care crisis are not going to be cheap.

    Will the government really be able to ignore all this and leave spending plans unchanged? I don't think so. So I rather fear that today's fiscal incontinence is not the end of the matter. Those spending pressures are going to come up against Truss ideology, and the result of that can only be yet more irresponsible borrowing,

    It leaves a massive space for Labour to outflank the Tories on a fiscal responsibility platform.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 4,847

    Leon said:

    Driver said:

    PeterM said:

    Jonathan said:

    It's a remarkable achievement in less than two weeks to make people yearn for the stability, competence and political care of Boris Johnson.

    whats remarkable is since Blair each Pm has been worse than the last...from Brown to Cameron to May to Johnson to Truss....at this rate we will soon be led by someone akin to the President in the film idiocracy
    Cameron was better than Brown.
    No.
    Boris was better than Cameron. TMay and Brown
    Cameron was a good PM until Brexit. Second only to Blair, the greatest PM of the last fifty years
    The things you hate about the present are mostly the legacy of Blair's failures.
    No they aren't.
    Oh yes they are....
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,598
    Leon said:

    Jonathan said:

    Leon said:

    Jonathan said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Driver said:

    PeterM said:

    Jonathan said:

    It's a remarkable achievement in less than two weeks to make people yearn for the stability, competence and political care of Boris Johnson.

    whats remarkable is since Blair each Pm has been worse than the last...from Brown to Cameron to May to Johnson to Truss....at this rate we will soon be led by someone akin to the President in the film idiocracy
    Cameron was better than Brown.
    No.
    Boris was better than Cameron. TMay and Brown
    Cameron was a good PM until Brexit. Second only to Blair, the greatest PM of the last fifty years
    Blair cannot be counted as "great", due to the Iraq War, and also his total inability to change the UK in any significant way, apart from ramping up immigration (which led directly to Brexit, something he fiercely opposed)

    A successful election winner, sure, but as a an actual politician-in-office Blair's record is dire
    Every PM since would give their right arm for a tiny fraction of Blair's record. Not sure Truss is going to get an AAA rating any time soon.
    What record?

    Everything Blair touched has turned to dross

    Remember how Devolution was meant to Kill Scottish Nationalism stone dead?

    Northern Ireland?

    Personally, I quite liked not having an economy in the toilet and being able to be treated quickly at hospital.

    Winning things like the Olympics was good for morale too. My gay friends benefited hugely from his civil reforms.

    Times were better with Blair.
    He inherited a healthy economy - "a golden economic legacy" - and slowly blew it

    He won huge majorities and did kinda nothing


    I agree Northern Ireland is to his credit, tho he built on the hard work of others. Nonetheless that is one place his charm did work some magic

    I regret this failure because Blair had the intelligence and plausibility - and the MPs - to do great things. Something strange stopped him being a Labour version of Thatcher. A truly transformative prime minister. There is no "Blairism", tellingly

    All these years later I'm still not sure what stopped him. Was it really just grumpy Gordon Brown?
    10 years of prosperity, progress and stability. Sounds bloody brilliant. I would settle for that again even if you find that dull.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,233
    OllyT said:

    Remember the images of Kwasi from the funeral on Monday.

    This guy is the guy that is going to rip up economic orthodoxy? The one sweating, giggling and jabbering to himself during our 70-year monarchs funeral?

    It's absolutely tragic how the country has got to this point. The only slight glimmering of fun will be watching Barty wriggle and squirm through his thousands of posts. That's going to be fun.

    I truly believe that the Brexiteer takeover of the Tory Party is going to result in the trading of our finances for decades. Not simply because of Brexit itself but because of the calibre of politician it has bequeathed us to "run" the country. The Tory Party has disappeared down the same rabbit hole as the GOP.
    I honestly can’t believe how nostalgic I am for Phil Hammond. Please, just give us some basic competence and understanding of reality!
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 8,571

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    MaxPB said:

    Jonathan said:

    The Tories spent much of the last decade talking about paying down debt. Going crazy on the credit card now is completely at odds with that message.

    It reminds me of the Lib Dems and tuition fees.

    Yes, this feels to me like a generational error for the Tories. The brand for competence was trashed by Boris quite badly and now the brand for sound money has been set on fire by his successor. If the Tories are competent and good with the nation's finances, people will rightly ask themselves why they deserve our votes.
    MaxPB said:

    Jonathan said:

    The Tories spent much of the last decade talking about paying down debt. Going crazy on the credit card now is completely at odds with that message.

    It reminds me of the Lib Dems and tuition fees.

    Yes, this feels to me like a generational error for the Tories. The brand for competence was trashed by Boris quite badly and now the brand for sound money has been set on fire by his successor. If the Tories are competent and good with the nation's finances, people will rightly ask themselves why they deserve our votes.
    I get the impression that Truss and Kwateng think they are being clever, they prioritised trying to present a fresh look to shake off 12 years of baggage, but ended up undermining one of the core values underpinning their party.

    Sometime those that consider themselves clever can be really, really dumb.
    Dumb or narrow minded, over confident, arrogant? They strike me as people who will turn up on political documentaries in twenty years, creases on their brow date back to 2023 24, saying “and there we were, so utterly convinced in our own minds we were doing the right thing.”
    Kwateng's lack of experience certainly showed today. I can't imagine any serious politician of the past doing this. He comes across very poorly I thought. Very arrogant.
    Arrogant really is an emotive term - over confident and inexperienced, and courageous probably Yes Minister way of putting it.

    It also feels like this new government are like minded mates, all agreeing with each other when they get together, egging each other on in a way - when far stronger template for government is to include people who will give you blood on the carpet discussions, to, whatever the opposite of egging you on is.
    I accept the point about arrogant. But usually successful politicians show some kind of sympathy and connections with the electorate. I get the impression from Kwateng that he is somehow above us and if we don't get his master plan it's our fault not his.
    I totally agree with you, K has yet to do empathy. Boris did empathy, but he was a cad and shyster so maybe put empathy out of fashion. K nonchalant commons delivery of this budget didn’t sell it, so yes, another reason why it is so quickly disliked and untrusted by voters.
    I don't think he needs to do empathy. He needs to do 'competency' big time though.
    Not really. Love Actually Boris did convince people to give him a positive vote - and reject Corbyn/Truss economics at same time. Charisma and ability to show empathy is Important in politics - it’s just that Boris took the piss just too far, if he knuckled down and done some work he could still be there and ahead in the polls.

    To say “take this on trust, our policy is over there, and you are all following me over there” is salesman skill set isn’t it? Kwarteng and Truss don’t really have those skills as much as Boris and Rishi.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,786

    I think the most worrying thing about the dire outlook for the public finances is that all the huge spending pressures (which Kwarteng almost completely ignored) haven't gone away. Departmental spending plans, already under very severe pressure, are going to be further kiboshed by inflation. Defence spending, already looking low given Ukraine, is going to be further kiboshed by the fall in sterling relative to the US dollar. The energy-cost crisis is probably not going to disappear by the end of the current, eye-wateringly expensive, programme of Truss handouts. The NHS backlog, despite Therese Coffey's new targets, is not going to solve itself. Measures to mitigate the social care crisis are not going to be cheap.

    Will the government really be able to ignore all this and leave spending plans unchanged? I don't think so. So I rather fear that today's fiscal incontinence is not the end of the matter. Those spending pressures are going to come up against Truss ideology, and the result of that can only be yet more irresponsible borrowing,

    We may have to invade somewhere, like Putin, to distract the voters

    Start with Ireland?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 19,569

    We will see a 20 point Labour lead soon.

    This budget has been an absolute disaster politically

    Any other leader would be 20pts ahead.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,598

    We will see a 20 point Labour lead soon.

    This budget has been an absolute disaster politically

    Any other leader would be 20pts ahead.
    Mogg?
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 10,394
    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    Driver said:

    PeterM said:

    Jonathan said:

    It's a remarkable achievement in less than two weeks to make people yearn for the stability, competence and political care of Boris Johnson.

    whats remarkable is since Blair each Pm has been worse than the last...from Brown to Cameron to May to Johnson to Truss....at this rate we will soon be led by someone akin to the President in the film idiocracy
    Cameron was better than Brown.
    No.
    Boris was better than Cameron. TMay and Brown
    Cameron was a good PM until Brexit. Second only to Blair, the greatest PM of the last fifty years
    The things you hate about the present are mostly the legacy of Blair's failures.
    No they aren't.
    University fees and house prices definitely are. The housing boom of the 00s and landlordism that Labour encouraged is why housing is so expensive today.
    Labour introduced fees, they didn't make the Tories triple them. The rise of the private landlord sector started under Thatcher as a replacement for council housing, it wasn't something that started under Blair (and the Tories have had 12 years to fix it if they had wanted to). Housing is expensive because of low interest rates, and interest rates have been low because of low inflation - but don't worry, the Tories are getting rid of low inflation.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 48,162
    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Personally, I'm pissed that the top rate of stamp duty has not been cut.

    I mean, if you're going to screw the poor over for the benefit of the rich, at least do it properly.

    I'm annoyed that they didn't get rid of the idiotic £100k childcare and allowance withdrawal. That would unlock more economic activity than the additional rate cut.
    That was the first thing I looked for and, lo and behold, that bollocks is still there.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 18,482
    All is not lost for the Conservatives. They could still win the next election if they adopt Kremlin referendum voting procedures in the disputed territories.

    A knock on the door by soldiers and a paper tally totted up by said soldiers. It might give the Government the result it requires.
  • maxhmaxh Posts: 148
    Logging onto PB tonight to catch up on the budget stuff, I am struck by the near universality of the sentiment against what the government has announced today. I am used to the middle ground on PB being more right-leaning and Tory-sympathetic than me, so to see you all denouncing this lot as crazies is at least a little bit heartening.

    I wonder what impact this will have on popular opinion? The things that will stand out, I think, are the top rate cut and the bankers' bonuses. Neither strike me as things that will go down well with the public.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,233
    Jonathan said:

    So if we had a reset button, which could take the country back to date in the past 30 years we would all press it. We perhaps would not agree on the date we went back to, but we would all press it.

    Things are worse today than they were yesterday. That's a serious political problem that someone needs to fix.

    Ken Clarke, John Major. All is forgiven.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 42,968

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    Driver said:

    PeterM said:

    Jonathan said:

    It's a remarkable achievement in less than two weeks to make people yearn for the stability, competence and political care of Boris Johnson.

    whats remarkable is since Blair each Pm has been worse than the last...from Brown to Cameron to May to Johnson to Truss....at this rate we will soon be led by someone akin to the President in the film idiocracy
    Cameron was better than Brown.
    No.
    Boris was better than Cameron. TMay and Brown
    Cameron was a good PM until Brexit. Second only to Blair, the greatest PM of the last fifty years
    The things you hate about the present are mostly the legacy of Blair's failures.
    No they aren't.
    University fees and house prices definitely are. The housing boom of the 00s and landlordism that Labour encouraged is why housing is so expensive today.
    Labour introduced fees, they didn't make the Tories triple them. The rise of the private landlord sector started under Thatcher as a replacement for council housing, it wasn't something that started under Blair (and the Tories have had 12 years to fix it if they had wanted to). Housing is expensive because of low interest rates, and interest rates have been low because of low inflation - but don't worry, the Tories are getting rid of low inflation.
    Inflation wasn’t low. There was a massive house price bubble that was deliberately ignored.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,233

    We will see a 20 point Labour lead soon.

    This budget has been an absolute disaster politically

    Any other leader would be 20pts ahead.
    Corbyn f…ing wouldn’t.
This discussion has been closed.