It all comes down to Covid and, dare I say, @contrarian's view of our reaction.
Once you deem a situation, however seemingly dire, to be an emergency needing extraordinary fiscal measures then you move the Overton window dramatically.
If you say Covid is a national emergency then you can say the NHS or the homeless or the railways or the cost of living crisis is a national emergency and go again on the fiscal splurging.
Except they aren't even doing that. None of the measures announced today relate to the most urgent problems facing the country.
Yep, just pure pursuit of (extreme) political ideology.
Truss was right, Sunak was wrong to attempt austerity on a recessionary economy.
This is even worse, though.
I think from a purely macro perspective that the extra borrowing is fine. The problem is that Truss/Kwarteng have made no efforts whatsoever to present it within a broader narrative of fiscal responsibility.
Then, underneath that, you have a giveaway which doesn’t actually incent improved productivity and is - to my opinion - frankly immoral in terms of its distribution.
The market is voting with its feet.
It beggars belief that Big G posted earlier that the average family will be pleased with this.
After today’s UK Budget’s Vat-free tourist shopping, for Irish person travelling to England…
1. iPhone 14 Pro Ireland - €1,339 England - €980
2. MacBook Air M2 Ireland - €1,529 England - €1,170
Of which not a single penny will be made by the UK Government...
Can you explain how an Irish person can travel to Great Britain and shop at Apple without the UK government generating any revenue at all?
Irish Ferries Dublin to Holyhead 8:15-11:30 pick up the MacBook in Holyhead Argos, then Holyhead to Dublin 14:45-18:00. €57 on November 10th, for example.
After today’s UK Budget’s Vat-free tourist shopping, for Irish person travelling to England…
1. iPhone 14 Pro Ireland - €1,339 England - €980
2. MacBook Air M2 Ireland - €1,529 England - €1,170
Of which not a single penny will be made by the UK Government...
The taxes on the employment of the person working in the phone shop? The accommodation and meals the tourist buys to make the trip?
The hotel room, the pubs, the restaurants etc... VAT free shopping is about the one policy in this mess that actually makes sense.
I think a fair bit of it makes sense.
I do question why some things that are in the emergency budget aren't just part of a main budget down the line though.
I think that having the temerity to grab for growth was always going to meet with a chorus of objection (and they must have known this) - so perhaps they just thought get the fruitier things out of the way now.
In many ways, the enterprise zones, the part we know least about, is the most interesting aspect of the budget. How will these interact with freeports - are they what Truss eventually believes in for the whole economy?
That would make sense, with probably two years to go until the next election.
After today’s UK Budget’s Vat-free tourist shopping, for Irish person travelling to England…
1. iPhone 14 Pro Ireland - €1,339 England - €980
2. MacBook Air M2 Ireland - €1,529 England - €1,170
Of which not a single penny will be made by the UK Government...
Presumably they will have to stay somewhere and eat food so they support other industries with business which otherwise wouldn't have happened. VAT free shopping is not a huge problem, in fact it makes a lot of sense because it probably has a pretty high multiplier for not a lot of tax loss.
Its also amoral race to the bottom economics.
Why should workers in the UK accept that goods they have to pay full price for are much cheaper for wealthy tourists. And what's to stop Ireland doing the same for UK tourists. Now no country gets any revenue.
France already does. You can get the money back from a machine at the Eurostar terminal or airport.
It all smells to me. Beggar your neighbour capitalism.
By extension you must think any policy designed to make the country a more attractive place to invest relative to other countries is morally wrong.
So this horrendously risky tax cutting budget has taken us from the highest rate in 74 years to a tax rate still higher than any of the past 40 pre-pandemic years?
Taxes are still too high. They should be cut further still, but this is a good start.
The problem, Bart, is that they're cutting the wrong taxes. There's simply no need to give people like me a £15k+ tax cut. That money would be better used cutting some other tax that is going to have a much higher multiplier.
Correct me if I'm wrong but just a few months ago weren't you considering moving to Switzerland, which would have meant the government loses all of your taxes?
If the tax changes encourage more people like your good self to be paying British taxes instead of Swiss, German, Singaporean or American taxes then that could boost revenues overall even while you benefit personally.
I'm lucky enough to be in the net positive group from the budget (also apparently the top 1% of earners I found out today, yay me), although not by as much as MaxPB I suspect. I've been pondering whether to continue with my pretty good prospects for partnership in a city firm here or to sack it in and emigrate, taking an inevitable (but hopefully temporary) pay cut because I feel like the UK is heading down the Argentina path. This budget is making me go from idle musing to much more serious thought. A debt and currency crisis in a declining country do not make an attractive option for internationally mobile high earners.
It all comes down to Covid and, dare I say, @contrarian's view of our reaction.
Once you deem a situation, however seemingly dire, to be an emergency needing extraordinary fiscal measures then you move the Overton window dramatically.
If you say Covid is a national emergency then you can say the NHS or the homeless or the railways or the cost of living crisis is a national emergency and go again on the fiscal splurging.
Except they aren't even doing that. None of the measures announced today relate to the most urgent problems facing the country.
Growth.
This is the problem with hosing money at problems.
Need to support businesses and individuals during Covid? Hose them with money. Need to help with energy bills? Hose them with money. Need to get growth? Yep, hose them with money.
And then of course politics gets in the way because your idea of going for growth might not be the same as my idea. Or the government's. But the solution is hose everything with money.
After today’s UK Budget’s Vat-free tourist shopping, for Irish person travelling to England…
1. iPhone 14 Pro Ireland - €1,339 England - €980
2. MacBook Air M2 Ireland - €1,529 England - €1,170
Of which not a single penny will be made by the UK Government...
Presumably they will have to stay somewhere and eat food so they support other industries with business which otherwise wouldn't have happened. VAT free shopping is not a huge problem, in fact it makes a lot of sense because it probably has a pretty high multiplier for not a lot of tax loss.
Its also amoral race to the bottom economics.
Why should workers in the UK accept that goods they have to pay full price for are much cheaper for wealthy tourists. And what's to stop Ireland doing the same for UK tourists. Now no country gets any revenue.
Everyone except a few very high earners will be worse off in the short term because petrol prices will go up in a few weeks unless Sterling mounts an unlikely recovery. Given all of the prime pumping surely it's time for the BoE to call an emergency MPC meeting and put rates up by 1%.
Odd state of affairs with the government and the BoE doing pushmepullme with the economy. It's like we have Tom & Jerry or Laurel & Hardy in charge although I'm not sure which is which. Certainly looks like it'll be another fine mess to be cleared up by whoever succeeds these jokers.
Although oil price falls today seem to have managed to outpace Sterling for whatever reason somebody can no doubt explain.
After today’s UK Budget’s Vat-free tourist shopping, for Irish person travelling to England…
1. iPhone 14 Pro Ireland - €1,339 England - €980
2. MacBook Air M2 Ireland - €1,529 England - €1,170
Of which not a single penny will be made by the UK Government...
Can you explain how an Irish person can travel to Great Britain and shop at Apple without the UK government generating any revenue at all?
Irish Ferries Dublin to Holyhead 8:15-11:30 pick up the MacBook in Holyhead Argos, then Holyhead to Dublin 14:45-18:00. €57 on November 10th, for example.
When I recently travelled to france on the coach, the bill contained a breakdown of VAT, half paid to the UK, half paid to france, because the journey was between the two. This may be true on the ferry. Not to mention the berthing fee.
The Commons are having a fortnight off for conferences now, aren't they?
That's it, Commons has adjourned. Half-day and off to for Friday fish and chips after the biggest tax cutting budget since the 1970s. Commons not back until October 11, after SNP conference. Someone remember to switch off the lights in the chamber.
I rather suspect it may be recalled if the £ continues to tank.
Remember the images of Kwasi from the funeral on Monday.
This guy is the guy that is going to rip up economic orthodoxy? The one sweating, giggling and jabbering to himself during our 70-year monarchs funeral?
It's absolutely tragic how the country has got to this point. The only slight glimmering of fun will be watching Barty wriggle and squirm through his thousands of posts. That's going to be fun.
In particular, the following which was key to its success:
"In fact, one of the first test boards the team plugged the ARM into had a broken connection and was not attached to any power at all. It was a big surprise when they found the fault because the CPU had been working the whole time. It had turned on just from electrical leakage coming from the support chips."
Remember the images of Kwasi from the funeral on Monday.
This guy is the guy that is going to rip up economic orthodoxy? The one sweating, giggling and jabbering to himself during our 70-year monarchs funeral?
It's absolutely tragic how the country has got to this point. The only slight glimmering of fun will be watching Barty wriggle and squirm through his thousands of posts. That's going to be fun.
Truss was right, Sunak was wrong to attempt austerity on a recessionary economy.
This is even worse, though.
I think from a purely macro perspective that the extra borrowing is fine. The problem is that Truss/Kwarteng have made no efforts whatsoever to present it within a broader narrative of fiscal responsibility.
Then, underneath that, you have a giveaway which doesn’t actually incent improved productivity and is - to my opinion - frankly immoral in terms of its distribution.
The market is voting with its feet.
It beggars belief that Big G posted earlier that the average family will be pleased with this.
The Tory party membership (average age about 83, many of them demented) probably believes that it does, in fact, represent the average family. On that basis, the average family is, indeed, wetting its incontinence pants with excitement.
Are you disappointed in the reception to this budget among journos, with the markets and on PB? Oh, and the think tanks etc? Oh and the polling in the header.
I mean, stuff like the IFS judgement must sting, surely?
Remember the images of Kwasi from the funeral on Monday.
This guy is the guy that is going to rip up economic orthodoxy? The one sweating, giggling and jabbering to himself during our 70-year monarchs funeral?
It's absolutely tragic how the country has got to this point. The only slight glimmering of fun will be watching Barty wriggle and squirm through his thousands of posts. That's going to be fun.
Speaking of the monarchy - Charles must be pleased that his week’s rest for proper mourning has been so rudely interrupted.
Could the last person to leave the UK please turn out the lights?
It's all being done to create conditions where you will be able to afford the home of your dreams upon your return from New York.
I mean, it’s a good time to not live in the UK. It pains me, I love the UK and I hate to see this decline.
We haven't declined yet!
The govt is engaging in the mother of all economic experiments with a low but not impossible chance of success. It is hoping that one section of economic text books is correct.
Look at @Barty's posts today - all one school of economic orthodoxy.
If you strip out the iniquity of the proposals (which arguably you could because there are very few measures that, proportionately, will benefit everyone equally and which will make a difference) then it is one attempt at energising the economy via stimulus.
Remember the images of Kwasi from the funeral on Monday.
This guy is the guy that is going to rip up economic orthodoxy? The one sweating, giggling and jabbering to himself during our 70-year monarchs funeral?
It's absolutely tragic how the country has got to this point. The only slight glimmering of fun will be watching Barty wriggle and squirm through his thousands of posts. That's going to be fun.
It’s difficult to watch that film and not conclude he was on some top quality product.
The Tories spent much of the last decade talking about paying down debt. Going crazy on the credit card now is completely at odds with that message.
It reminds me of the Lib Dems and tuition fees.
Yes, this feels to me like a generational error for the Tories. The brand for competence was trashed by Boris quite badly and now the brand for sound money has been set on fire by his successor. If the Tories are competent and good with the nation's finances, people will rightly ask themselves why they deserve our votes.
The Tories spent much of the last decade talking about paying down debt. Going crazy on the credit card now is completely at odds with that message.
It reminds me of the Lib Dems and tuition fees.
Yes, this feels to me like a generational error for the Tories. The brand for competence was trashed by Boris quite badly and now the brand for sound money has been set on fire by his successor. If the Tories are competent and good with the nation's finances, people will rightly ask themselves why they deserve our votes.
I get the impression that Truss and Kwateng think they are being clever, they prioritised trying to present a fresh look to shake off 12 years of baggage, but ended up undermining one of the core values underpinning their party.
Sometime those that consider themselves clever can be really, really dumb.
Dumb or narrow minded, over confident, arrogant? They strike me as people who will turn up on political documentaries in twenty years, creases on their brow date back to 2023 24, saying “and there we were, so utterly convinced in our own minds we were doing the right thing.”
Kwateng's lack of experience certainly showed today. I can't imagine any serious politician of the past doing this. He comes across very poorly I thought. Very arrogant.
After today’s UK Budget’s Vat-free tourist shopping, for Irish person travelling to England…
1. iPhone 14 Pro Ireland - €1,339 England - €980
2. MacBook Air M2 Ireland - €1,529 England - €1,170
Of which not a single penny will be made by the UK Government...
Presumably they will have to stay somewhere and eat food so they support other industries with business which otherwise wouldn't have happened. VAT free shopping is not a huge problem, in fact it makes a lot of sense because it probably has a pretty high multiplier for not a lot of tax loss.
Its also amoral race to the bottom economics.
Why should workers in the UK accept that goods they have to pay full price for are much cheaper for wealthy tourists. And what's to stop Ireland doing the same for UK tourists. Now no country gets any revenue.
France already does. You can get the money back from a machine at the Eurostar terminal or airport.
It all smells to me. Beggar your neighbour capitalism.
By extension you must think any policy designed to make the country a more attractive place to invest relative to other countries is morally wrong.
Considering the final products of the theory are parasitical tax havens, yes its all degrees of grey.
Remember the images of Kwasi from the funeral on Monday.
This guy is the guy that is going to rip up economic orthodoxy? The one sweating, giggling and jabbering to himself during our 70-year monarchs funeral?
It's absolutely tragic how the country has got to this point. The only slight glimmering of fun will be watching Barty wriggle and squirm through his thousands of posts. That's going to be fun.
But you only have 40 posts. That is impressive background knowledge
Could the last person to leave the UK please turn out the lights?
It's all being done to create conditions where you will be able to afford the home of your dreams upon your return from New York.
I mean, it’s a good time to not live in the UK. It pains me, I love the UK and I hate to see this decline.
We haven't declined yet!
The govt is engaging in the mother of all economic experiments with a low but not impossible chance of success. It is hoping that one section of economic text books is correct.
Look at @Barty's posts today - all one school of economic orthodoxy.
If you strip out the iniquity of the proposals (which arguably you could because there are very few measures that, proportionately, will benefit everyone equally and which will make a difference) then it is one attempt at energising the economy via stimulus.
The country certainly has been in economic decline (relative to peers) since 2016 and continues to decline, quite rapidly according to market indicators.
The Tories spent much of the last decade talking about paying down debt. Going crazy on the credit card now is completely at odds with that message.
It reminds me of the Lib Dems and tuition fees.
Yes, this feels to me like a generational error for the Tories. The brand for competence was trashed by Boris quite badly and now the brand for sound money has been set on fire by his successor. If the Tories are competent and good with the nation's finances, people will rightly ask themselves why they deserve our votes.
I get the impression that Truss and Kwateng think they are being clever, they prioritised trying to present a fresh look to shake off 12 years of baggage, but ended up undermining one of the core values underpinning their party.
Sometime those that consider themselves clever can be really, really dumb.
Isn't it known as the Dunning-Kruger effect?
I have had my doubts about whether it might have been a statistical artefact, but the give Kwasi-Truss example, that's hard to argue.
Could the last person to leave the UK please turn out the lights?
It's all being done to create conditions where you will be able to afford the home of your dreams upon your return from New York.
I mean, it’s a good time to not live in the UK. It pains me, I love the UK and I hate to see this decline.
We haven't declined yet!
The govt is engaging in the mother of all economic experiments with a low but not impossible chance of success. It is hoping that one section of economic text books is correct.
Look at @Barty's posts today - all one school of economic orthodoxy.
If you strip out the iniquity of the proposals (which arguably you could because there are very few measures that, proportionately, will benefit everyone equally and which will make a difference) then it is one attempt at energising the economy via stimulus.
Yes, it is not impossible that this works. And the markets have called it wrong, and over-reacted
The Tories better pray that this is the case. Otherwise they are fucked for two decades
Could the last person to leave the UK please turn out the lights?
It's all being done to create conditions where you will be able to afford the home of your dreams upon your return from New York.
I mean, it’s a good time to not live in the UK. It pains me, I love the UK and I hate to see this decline.
We haven't declined yet!
The govt is engaging in the mother of all economic experiments with a low but not impossible chance of success. It is hoping that one section of economic text books is correct.
Look at @Barty's posts today - all one school of economic orthodoxy.
If you strip out the iniquity of the proposals (which arguably you could because there are very few measures that, proportionately, will benefit everyone equally and which will make a difference) then it is one attempt at energising the economy via stimulus.
The country certainly has been in economic decline (relative to peers) since 2016 and continues to decline, quite rapidly according to market indicators.
yeah but we have got blue passports now so theres that....
Remember the images of Kwasi from the funeral on Monday.
This guy is the guy that is going to rip up economic orthodoxy? The one sweating, giggling and jabbering to himself during our 70-year monarchs funeral?
It's absolutely tragic how the country has got to this point. The only slight glimmering of fun will be watching Barty wriggle and squirm through his thousands of posts. That's going to be fun.
But you only have 40 posts. That is impressive background knowledge
I've lurked on this site for years. Like everyone, I have suffered reading all his various posts on all the many different topics that he is an expert on. It's going to be a joy to watch him wriggle on this one. He fancies himself as an economist. Well let's see.
Could the last person to leave the UK please turn out the lights?
It's all being done to create conditions where you will be able to afford the home of your dreams upon your return from New York.
I mean, it’s a good time to not live in the UK. It pains me, I love the UK and I hate to see this decline.
We haven't declined yet!
The govt is engaging in the mother of all economic experiments with a low but not impossible chance of success. It is hoping that one section of economic text books is correct.
Look at @Barty's posts today - all one school of economic orthodoxy.
If you strip out the iniquity of the proposals (which arguably you could because there are very few measures that, proportionately, will benefit everyone equally and which will make a difference) then it is one attempt at energising the economy via stimulus.
The country certainly has been in economic decline (relative to peers) since 2016 and continues to decline, quite rapidly according to market indicators.
Berlusconi - Former Italian PM Silvio Berlusconi has defended Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine, saying Russia's leader was "pushed" into the conflict.
The 85-year-old said Russian troops were meant to replace the government with "decent people" then leave.
I think one of the lessons, from today, for future political historians is that it is indeed possible for a new PM to miscalculate the level of political capital they have to spend in their honeymoon.
Are there any other examples in history which come close?
I know political history is littered with memoirs of regret from former PMs who feel like they wasted their early days. But is there anyone else who did a “Truss” ? I can’t think of anyone.
Kwasi Kwarteng detonated a fiscal bomb that will reshape the UK's political, social and economic landscape for years to come, sending markets into meltdown
The chancellor's response? "Markets will do what they do"
The Tories spent much of the last decade talking about paying down debt. Going crazy on the credit card now is completely at odds with that message.
It reminds me of the Lib Dems and tuition fees.
Yes, this feels to me like a generational error for the Tories. The brand for competence was trashed by Boris quite badly and now the brand for sound money has been set on fire by his successor. If the Tories are competent and good with the nation's finances, people will rightly ask themselves why they deserve our votes.
The Tories spent much of the last decade talking about paying down debt. Going crazy on the credit card now is completely at odds with that message.
It reminds me of the Lib Dems and tuition fees.
Yes, this feels to me like a generational error for the Tories. The brand for competence was trashed by Boris quite badly and now the brand for sound money has been set on fire by his successor. If the Tories are competent and good with the nation's finances, people will rightly ask themselves why they deserve our votes.
I get the impression that Truss and Kwateng think they are being clever, they prioritised trying to present a fresh look to shake off 12 years of baggage, but ended up undermining one of the core values underpinning their party.
Sometime those that consider themselves clever can be really, really dumb.
Dumb or narrow minded, over confident, arrogant? They strike me as people who will turn up on political documentaries in twenty years, creases on their brow date back to 2023 24, saying “and there we were, so utterly convinced in our own minds we were doing the right thing.”
Kwateng's lack of experience certainly showed today. I can't imagine any serious politician of the past doing this. He comes across very poorly I thought. Very arrogant.
Arrogant really is an emotive term - over confident and inexperienced, and courageous probably Yes Minister way of putting it.
It also feels like this new government are like minded mates, all agreeing with each other when they get together, egging each other on in a way - when far stronger template for government is to include people who will give you blood on the carpet discussions, to, whatever the opposite of egging you on is.
Could the last person to leave the UK please turn out the lights?
It's all being done to create conditions where you will be able to afford the home of your dreams upon your return from New York.
I mean, it’s a good time to not live in the UK. It pains me, I love the UK and I hate to see this decline.
We haven't declined yet!
The govt is engaging in the mother of all economic experiments with a low but not impossible chance of success. It is hoping that one section of economic text books is correct.
Look at @Barty's posts today - all one school of economic orthodoxy.
If you strip out the iniquity of the proposals (which arguably you could because there are very few measures that, proportionately, will benefit everyone equally and which will make a difference) then it is one attempt at energising the economy via stimulus.
Yes, it is not impossible that this works. And the markets have called it wrong, and over-reacted
The Tories better pray that this is the case. Otherwise they are fucked for two decades
The expectations management has been something special, anyway.
Dom Cummings did say that Truss is "properly bonkers"
Mps must have known this yet decided to push her into the top 2 anyway...so waht does that say about them
Is Dom Cummings the font of all knowledge or a muppet who should be ignored today? I lose track, it keeps changing.
Oh, Dom C remains the career psychopath he was accused of being ages ago.
And like many (all?) psychopaths, he is ruthless at spotting the psychological weaknesses of others, all the better to exploit them. I wouldn't trust him to run anything, but I would take his criticisms of people seriously.
That Truss is regarded as being too unstable to be of use to him is probably accurate and definitely significant.
In 2007 Kwarteng criticised Gordon Brown, in @newstatesman, for increasing borrowing by £8bn: "Brown boasts of his relationship with Prudence, but is not embarrassed by increased government borrowing."
Berlusconi - Former Italian PM Silvio Berlusconi has defended Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine, saying Russia's leader was "pushed" into the conflict.
The 85-year-old said Russian troops were meant to replace the government with "decent people" then leave.
Although interestingly the culprits don’t appear to be the usual suspects (US, NATO etc) but instead the Russian media and (Russian) nationalists in Russia and Ukraine who misled Putin into what was happening in that country.
One point which hasn't had much attention is that, even if you look at the Special Financial Operation only in the narrow terms of fiscal stimulus, it's likely to be quite ineffective. The top 1% of earners who are getting the benefit of the largesse financed on the never-never aren't cash-poor, almost by definition. In fact, many of them still have unusually high cash balances built up during lockdown, when it was hard to spend money. So this extra cash is not going to be quickly recycled into the wider economy, it's probably going into inflating asset prices further.
The Tories spent much of the last decade talking about paying down debt. Going crazy on the credit card now is completely at odds with that message.
It reminds me of the Lib Dems and tuition fees.
Yes, this feels to me like a generational error for the Tories. The brand for competence was trashed by Boris quite badly and now the brand for sound money has been set on fire by his successor. If the Tories are competent and good with the nation's finances, people will rightly ask themselves why they deserve our votes.
The Tories spent much of the last decade talking about paying down debt. Going crazy on the credit card now is completely at odds with that message.
It reminds me of the Lib Dems and tuition fees.
Yes, this feels to me like a generational error for the Tories. The brand for competence was trashed by Boris quite badly and now the brand for sound money has been set on fire by his successor. If the Tories are competent and good with the nation's finances, people will rightly ask themselves why they deserve our votes.
I get the impression that Truss and Kwateng think they are being clever, they prioritised trying to present a fresh look to shake off 12 years of baggage, but ended up undermining one of the core values underpinning their party.
Sometime those that consider themselves clever can be really, really dumb.
Dumb or narrow minded, over confident, arrogant? They strike me as people who will turn up on political documentaries in twenty years, creases on their brow date back to 2023 24, saying “and there we were, so utterly convinced in our own minds we were doing the right thing.”
Kwateng's lack of experience certainly showed today. I can't imagine any serious politician of the past doing this. He comes across very poorly I thought. Very arrogant.
Arrogant really is an emotive term - over confident and inexperienced, and courageous probably Yes Minister way of putting it.
It also feels like this new government are like minded mates, all agreeing with each other when they get together, egging each other on in a way - when far stronger template for government is to include people who will give you blood on the carpet discussions, to, whatever the opposite of egging you on is.
I accept the point about arrogant. But usually successful politicians show some kind of sympathy and connections with the electorate. I get the impression from Kwateng that he is somehow above us and if we don't get his master plan it's our fault not his.
In particular, the following which was key to its success:
"In fact, one of the first test boards the team plugged the ARM into had a broken connection and was not attached to any power at all. It was a big surprise when they found the fault because the CPU had been working the whole time. It had turned on just from electrical leakage coming from the support chips."
After today’s UK Budget’s Vat-free tourist shopping, for Irish person travelling to England…
1. iPhone 14 Pro Ireland - €1,339 England - €980
2. MacBook Air M2 Ireland - €1,529 England - €1,170
Of which not a single penny will be made by the UK Government...
I'm sure that retailers in Ireland will be howling about the consequences and hoping for some sort of remedy to prevent them losing business to the UK.
So if something is, say, £1200 for a UK citizen, but £1000 for a tourist, could I not just pay a tourist £1100 to buy it for me?
Remember the images of Kwasi from the funeral on Monday.
This guy is the guy that is going to rip up economic orthodoxy? The one sweating, giggling and jabbering to himself during our 70-year monarchs funeral?
It's absolutely tragic how the country has got to this point. The only slight glimmering of fun will be watching Barty wriggle and squirm through his thousands of posts. That's going to be fun.
But you only have 40 posts. That is impressive background knowledge
As Barty seems to be managing to do several score posts a day it will only take a few months for our new playmate @TinkyWinky to, indeed, see 'thousands' of the former's posts.
The Tories better pray that this is the case. Otherwise they are fucked for two decades
As indeed are we
There's some truth to that. Does anyone think Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng aren't going to walk into cushy jobs after their political careers are over, even if it's only to play Valerian to Shapur?
Assuming that old school (aka real) conservatives cannot vote for this nonsense, who can they vote for?
I would assume that whilst some might, many will hesitate to vote for Labour for tribal reasons. Therefore surely there is a huge opportunity for the Lib Dems here with their Orange book, coalition veteran leader.
Russia's Obscene "Referendums" A media exercise in humiliation, and an element of war crimes
https://snyder.substack.com/p/russias-obscene-referendums ...When Russia claims that huge majorities of Ukrainians want to join Russia, they are claiming that Ukrainians like death pits, that Ukrainians like torture, that Ukrainians like deportation, that Ukrainians like to have their homes destroyed and their cities obliterated.
The ongoing Russian media exercise ("referendums") is an obscenity. When Russian media announces the invented “results,” Moscow will be claiming that Ukrainians wish to celebrate their own ongoing genocide by joining the country that is perpetrating it. Such an attempt at public humiliation is despicable. The Russian media exercise is nothing more and nothing less than an element of ongoing Russian war crimes...
The Tories spent much of the last decade talking about paying down debt. Going crazy on the credit card now is completely at odds with that message.
It reminds me of the Lib Dems and tuition fees.
Yes, this feels to me like a generational error for the Tories. The brand for competence was trashed by Boris quite badly and now the brand for sound money has been set on fire by his successor. If the Tories are competent and good with the nation's finances, people will rightly ask themselves why they deserve our votes.
The Tories spent much of the last decade talking about paying down debt. Going crazy on the credit card now is completely at odds with that message.
It reminds me of the Lib Dems and tuition fees.
Yes, this feels to me like a generational error for the Tories. The brand for competence was trashed by Boris quite badly and now the brand for sound money has been set on fire by his successor. If the Tories are competent and good with the nation's finances, people will rightly ask themselves why they deserve our votes.
I get the impression that Truss and Kwateng think they are being clever, they prioritised trying to present a fresh look to shake off 12 years of baggage, but ended up undermining one of the core values underpinning their party.
Sometime those that consider themselves clever can be really, really dumb.
Dumb or narrow minded, over confident, arrogant? They strike me as people who will turn up on political documentaries in twenty years, creases on their brow date back to 2023 24, saying “and there we were, so utterly convinced in our own minds we were doing the right thing.”
Kwateng's lack of experience certainly showed today. I can't imagine any serious politician of the past doing this. He comes across very poorly I thought. Very arrogant.
Arrogant really is an emotive term - over confident and inexperienced, and courageous probably Yes Minister way of putting it.
It also feels like this new government are like minded mates, all agreeing with each other when they get together, egging each other on in a way - when far stronger template for government is to include people who will give you blood on the carpet discussions, to, whatever the opposite of egging you on is.
I accept the point about arrogant. But usually successful politicians show some kind of sympathy and connections with the electorate. I get the impression from Kwateng that he is somehow above us and if we don't get his master plan it's our fault not his.
It pains me because on paper he looks really good.
Economic historian, writer of decently reviewed books.
But he was considered a waste of space in BEIS and now he is will be associated with these kamakwasi economics.
One point which hasn't had much attention is that, even if you look at the Special Financial Operation only in the narrow terms of fiscal stimulus, it's likely to be quite ineffective. The top 1% of earners who are getting benefit of the largesse financed on the never-never aren't cash-poor, almost by definition. In fact, many of them still have unusually high cash balances built up during lockdown, when it was hard to spend money. So this extra cash is not going to be quickly recycled into the wider economy, it's probably go into inflating asset prices further.
Yes I commented upon that in the previous thread.
Some nice juicy tax cuts for the well-off who don't need it and have a low propensity to spend it. Meanwhile those in the middle and bottom suffer the fiscal drag, rampant inflation and increasing interest rates.
Aggregate demand ain't being boosted by this plan. It's just a huge dose of inflation with nothing to show for it. Wanton self-harm. Sabotage. Madness. Take yer pick.
One point which hasn't had much attention is that, even if you look at the Special Financial Operation only in the narrow terms of fiscal stimulus, it's likely to be quite ineffective. The top 1% of earners who are getting benefit of the largesse financed on the never-never aren't cash-poor, almost by definition. In fact, many of them still have unusually high cash balances built up during lockdown, when it was hard to spend money. So this extra cash is not going to be quickly recycled into the wider economy, it's probably go into inflating asset prices further.
Which just go to show that virtually all fiscal and monetary policies have their merits - but the point is not to advocate on the basis of rigid ideology but to use them at a time when there are definable problems for which those measures will have a role in combatting.
I don’t mean to alarm you, but the Chancellor of the Exchequer has created an absolutely catastrophic bin fire and is now patiently explaining that the Treasury remit is only petrol and matches https://twitter.com/katie_martin_fx/status/1573331859567689728
Is every political commentator now a failed stand-up comedian? Instead of intelligent discourse we have a never-ending edition of Have I Got News For You.
Thank goodness that doyenne of HIGNFY has passed the baton to the serious folk. Unfortunately people are now laughing at them through gritted teeth.
One point which hasn't had much attention is that, even if you look at the Special Financial Operation only in the narrow terms of fiscal stimulus, it's likely to be quite ineffective. The top 1% of earners who are getting the benefit of the largesse financed on the never-never aren't cash-poor, almost by definition. In fact, many of them still have unusually high cash balances built up during lockdown, when it was hard to spend money. So this extra cash is not going to be quickly recycled into the wider economy, it's probably going into inflating asset prices further.
Yes, my immediate response is to invest it, I've tentatively decided to go into a very high risk start up investment fund but most people won't do that, they'll just bung it into an S&P ETF. I really don't see how the multiplier on the 45% rate cut makes any sense. If they had that money to spend then aligning NI and income tax thresholds would have been a very good tax cut for all working people and it would have a really good multiplier, it's about £300 per working age person. That would get recycled back into the wider economy very, very quickly and it would be a step towards combining NI and income tax rates.
I think one of the lessons, from today, for future political historians is that it is indeed possible for a new PM to miscalculate the level of political capital they have to spend in their honeymoon.
Are there any other examples in history which come close?
I know political history is littered with memoirs of regret from former PMs who feel like they wasted their early days. But is there anyone else who did a “Truss” ? I can’t think of anyone.
Arthur Balfour, who decided to start his premiership by launching a war between his Chancellor and Colonial Secretary?
Euro/dollar at 0.9707 and ECB say interest rate hikes will be necessary
Probably pricing on the impact of a race to the bottom as U.K. desperately looks to massively undercut Europe on tax rates and EU responds in kind. No winners.
It's a remarkable achievement in less than two weeks to make people yearn for the stability, competence and political care of Boris Johnson.
whats remarkable is since Blair each Pm has been worse than the last...from Brown to Cameron to May to Johnson to Truss....at this rate we will soon be led by someone akin to the President in the film idiocracy
Comments
This is even worse, though.
I think from a purely macro perspective that the extra borrowing is fine. The problem is that Truss/Kwarteng have made no efforts whatsoever to present it within a broader narrative of fiscal responsibility.
Then, underneath that, you have a giveaway which doesn’t actually incent improved productivity and is - to my opinion - frankly immoral in terms of its distribution.
The market is voting with its feet.
It beggars belief that Big G posted earlier that the average family will be pleased with this.
This is the problem with hosing money at problems.
Need to support businesses and individuals during Covid? Hose them with money.
Need to help with energy bills? Hose them with money.
Need to get growth? Yep, hose them with money.
And then of course politics gets in the way because your idea of going for growth might not be the same as my idea. Or the government's. But the solution is hose everything with money.
It's what we have become used to.
It pains me, I love the UK and I hate to see this decline.
This guy is the guy that is going to rip up economic orthodoxy? The one sweating, giggling and jabbering to himself during our 70-year monarchs funeral?
It's absolutely tragic how the country has got to this point. The only slight glimmering of fun will be watching Barty wriggle and squirm through his thousands of posts. That's going to be fun.
Whilst the loons witter on about pseudo-science, here's a brilliant article on how the ARM chip was developed:
https://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2022/09/a-history-of-arm-part-1-building-the-first-chip/
In particular, the following which was key to its success:
"In fact, one of the first test boards the team plugged the ARM into had a broken connection and was not attached to any power at all. It was a big surprise when they found the fault because the CPU had been working the whole time. It had turned on just from electrical leakage coming from the support chips."
A great British success story.
It was a fundamentally unserious vote, and has normalised fundamentally unserious politics.
The govt is engaging in the mother of all economic experiments with a low but not impossible chance of success. It is hoping that one section of economic text books is correct.
Look at @Barty's posts today - all one school of economic orthodoxy.
If you strip out the iniquity of the proposals (which arguably you could because there are very few measures that, proportionately, will benefit everyone equally and which will make a difference) then it is one attempt at energising the economy via stimulus.
Not suggesting that either is wrong, mind.
We keep having to rewrite the top of the splash because financial markets do not want to touch sterling https://twitter.com/ChrisGiles_/status/1573333193842892801/photo/1
I have had my doubts about whether it might have been a statistical artefact, but the give Kwasi-Truss example, that's hard to argue.
The Tories better pray that this is the case. Otherwise they are fucked for two decades
Quite, quite mad.
https://twitter.com/LBC/status/1573338564250804226
The 85-year-old said Russian troops were meant to replace the government with "decent people" then leave.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63005402
Are there any other examples in history which come close?
I know political history is littered with memoirs of regret from former PMs who feel like they wasted their early days. But is there anyone else who did a “Truss” ? I can’t think of anyone.
The chancellor's response? "Markets will do what they do"
The Readout with Allegra Stratton ⬇️ https://trib.al/viczXEy
Trinity does give the world some bellends.
Sorry Robert.
It also feels like this new government are like minded mates, all agreeing with each other when they get together, egging each other on in a way - when far stronger template for government is to include people who will give you blood on the carpet discussions, to, whatever the opposite of egging you on is.
My first thought was Ramsey Macdonald EXCEPT in 1931 he was both outgoing AND incoming PM.
Includes this:
After Johnson's 'fuck business', we've now got Truss's 'frack the economy' https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1573347018050871297/photo/1
And like many (all?) psychopaths, he is ruthless at spotting the psychological weaknesses of others, all the better to exploit them. I wouldn't trust him to run anything, but I would take his criticisms of people seriously.
That Truss is regarded as being too unstable to be of use to him is probably accurate and definitely significant.
Today Kwarteng increased borrowing by… 9x as much. https://www.newstatesman.com/long-reads/2007/03/gordon-brown-budget-gives https://twitter.com/harrytlambert/status/1573336949548515331/photo/1
https://twitter.com/hannahrosewoods/status/1572348303781818368
I would assume that whilst some might, many will hesitate to vote for Labour for tribal reasons. Therefore surely there is a huge opportunity for the Lib Dems here with their Orange book, coalition veteran leader.
A media exercise in humiliation, and an element of war crimes
https://snyder.substack.com/p/russias-obscene-referendums
...When Russia claims that huge majorities of Ukrainians want to join Russia, they are claiming that Ukrainians like death pits, that Ukrainians like torture, that Ukrainians like deportation, that Ukrainians like to have their homes destroyed and their cities obliterated.
The ongoing Russian media exercise ("referendums") is an obscenity. When Russian media announces the invented “results,” Moscow will be claiming that Ukrainians wish to celebrate their own ongoing genocide by joining the country that is perpetrating it. Such an attempt at public humiliation is despicable. The Russian media exercise is nothing more and nothing less than an element of ongoing Russian war crimes...
Economic historian, writer of decently reviewed books.
But he was considered a waste of space in BEIS and now he is will be associated with these kamakwasi economics.
Some nice juicy tax cuts for the well-off who don't need it and have a low propensity to spend it.
Meanwhile those in the middle and bottom suffer the fiscal drag, rampant inflation and increasing interest rates.
Aggregate demand ain't being boosted by this plan. It's just a huge dose of inflation with nothing to show for it. Wanton self-harm. Sabotage. Madness. Take yer pick.
Will that be breached? Gonna be close
https://twitter.com/IsabelOakeshott/status/1573349307595751426
Euro/dollar at 0.9707 and ECB say interest rate hikes will be necessary
Saves a lot of time = more time for the Daily Mail’s sudoku puzzles.
It is not necessary and if you do not want to live in our wonderful country then you have freedom to choose to live elsewhere
The carnage happening across Europe is relevant as it demonstrates the dollar strength
As far as today's measures is concerned I would not have reduced the top rate of tax
I have no problem debating but catty remarks hardly contribute to an argument
How did it end for Mr Wilde?