Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Just 19% think the Chancellor’s changes will make them better off – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited September 30 in General
imageJust 19% think the Chancellor’s changes will make them better off – politicalbetting.com

One can I have learnt over the years of watching polls is that the initial reaction to budgets and other fiscal announcements not the one that will eventually be what the public will think.

Read the full story here

«13456710

Comments

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 23,537
    edited September 23
    First like the Dollar.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 23,567
    Not first like the Pound Sterling.
  • Count me in the 1%! I intend to save up my windfall and put some of it towards toasting in a Labour government in style in 2024 when this absolute disgrace of a government are booted out.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 53,955
    Paging the Ragin' Cajun...

    "Bond yields, a measure of borrowing costs, shot higher, which will make the interest the government pays on the new debt it issues much more expensive. The yield on benchmark 10-year government bonds climbed to the highest since 2011. And the yield on the five-year bond rose by more than half a percentage point, to 4.15 percent, a huge move in a market where daily changes are typically measured in hundredths of a point."

    “It’s fair to say that the gilt market hated today’s mini-budget,” Jim Leaviss, a bond investor at M&G Investments, said in emailed comments, referring to the market for British government bonds.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/23/business/uk-government-pound-tax.html
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 2,876
    edited September 23

    MaxPB said:

    I'm honestly still a bit shocked at the new fiscal policy direction. We've completely abandoned any pretence of sound money and fully embraced US style trickle down capitalism.

    Someone in the next few years is going to have to make absolutely eye watering spending cuts including a lot of sacred cows like healthcare and old age spending to make this work. We can't have an 11% state and public sector pension rise that will add £16bn to spending per year and another £6-7bn the following years and all of these tax cuts. One of these is unaffordable.

    Reeves will have to be the butcher who slashes public services or it's the IMF.

    Maybe that is the whole truss gameplan?

    There's a bad joke doing the rounds at the moment to the effect that the Tories know they're going to lose next time, so they're aiming to thieve as much as possible in what time they have left (through bungs for the rich,) and then trash the country so comprehensively that Labour can't repair it. They can then con thick old people into blaming Starmer for the fact that a loaf of bread now costs half their weekly pension, and get voted back in again the next time around.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 25,536
    I wonder if there are any ashen faces inside the IEA or TPA, as with some Vote Leave types in 2016, now they realise their somewhat quixotic personal theories are about to be implemented by an actual government.
    https://twitter.com/peterwalker99/status/1573322949209251841
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 35,477
    pigeon said:

    MaxPB said:

    I'm honestly still a bit shocked at the new fiscal policy direction. We've completely abandoned any pretence of sound money and fully embraced US style trickle down capitalism.

    Someone in the next few years is going to have to make absolutely eye watering spending cuts including a lot of sacred cows like healthcare and old age spending to make this work. We can't have an 11% state and public sector pension rise that will add £16bn to spending per year and another £6-7bn the following years and all of these tax cuts. One of these is unaffordable.

    Reeves will have to be the butcher who slashes public services or it's the IMF.

    Maybe that is the whole truss gameplan?

    There's a bad joke doing the rounds at the moment to the effect that the Tories know they're going to lose next time, so they're aiming to thieve as much as possible in what time they have left (through bungs for the rich,) and then trash the country so comprehensively that Labour can't repair it. They can then con thick old people into blaming Starmer for the fact that a loaf of bread now costs half their weekly pension, and get voted back in again the next time around.
    Sounds like a game plan to me rather than a joke.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 53,955
    Imported goods are 3% more expensive this evening than when KK stood up and cleared his throat.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 25,536
    Kwarteng and Truss hit the pound running https://on.ft.com/3f80XXf | opinion
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 35,477

    UK tax burden as share of GDP



    From the IFS analysis. https://ifs.org.uk/articles/mini-budget-response

    So this horrendously risky tax cutting budget has taken us from the highest rate in 74 years to a tax rate still higher than any of the past 40 pre-pandemic years?

    Taxes are still too high. They should be cut further still, but this is a good start.
    The problem, Bart, is that they're cutting the wrong taxes. There's simply no need to give people like me a £15k+ tax cut. That money would be better used cutting some other tax that is going to have a much higher multiplier.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 25,536
    A brutal, brutal day for sterling.
    Seems to have settled around $1.09 for the time being tho.
    By my reckoning this is now one of the top ten worst days for the pound (vs basket of other currencies) since 2004.
    Not the league table the Chancellor would have wanted to join today… https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1573336169370497024/photo/1
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 35,477

    Imported goods are 3% more expensive this evening than when KK stood up and cleared his throat.

    Good thing we don't import 60% of our energy then. Oh right.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 17,955
    MaxPB said:

    Everyone except a few very high earners will be worse off in the short term because petrol prices will go up in a few weeks unless Sterling mounts an unlikely recovery. Given all of the prime pumping surely it's time for the BoE to call an emergency MPC meeting and put rates up by 1%.

    But they will **** their pants that such a rise will increase mortgage rates to unsustainable repayment levels and cause a housing crash. All options have consequences. We were already well up **** Creek, and now the markets hate the mini-budget!
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 25,536
    I don’t mean to alarm you, but the Chancellor of the Exchequer has created an absolutely catastrophic bin fire and is now patiently explaining that the Treasury remit is only petrol and matches https://twitter.com/katie_martin_fx/status/1573331859567689728
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 42,081
    FPT
    moonshine said:

    Kwasi should just style this market tantrum out. Credit traders have been itching to short gilts and this was their signal. That said it was incredible the Boe didn’t match the Fed rate increase this week.

    Presumably the BoE knew the content of this statement, so maybe they deliberately only went with 0.5% yesterday to give them more space to increase rates now.
  • The Commons are having a fortnight off for conferences now, aren't they?
  • Phil said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    Chris said:

    I am going to get a nice windfall from this budget.

    And I am going to invest it in the stock market to inflate my own wealth further.

    Hardly stimulating the economy is it?

    I am absolutely delighted the Tories have been able to fix the transport, housing and tuition fee issues that were holding you back to the point you can now talk about your own wealth instead.

    You must be delighted. I'm happy for you. Well done you.
    Unlike some, I actually care about those around me.

    I do better under the Tories, society does not. And young people don't in general either.
    Don't feel so down on yourself, society is made up of people like you. You doing better and others who work hard doing better makes society better. Its a virtuous circle.

    Pruning back the taxes that hold everyone, even those on Minimum Wage, back allows everyone who works for a living to be better off. Just like you.
    Is this the new CCHQ script? I am not voting Tory until the current lot are gone. Bring Cameron and co back and I'll consider it like I did in 2005/2010

    (I know Cameron wasn't the leader in 2005 at the GE)
    No script. I have no connection to CCHQ which is why I'm frequently critical on Tory policy when I disagree with it, like when Sunak was in charge.

    Personally I think it's fantastic that anyone working for a living, from those on Minimum Wage onwards, can now keep more of their money?

    Do you agree with that? Or would you like to tax even those on Minimum Wage by even more?
    We all rely on public services. They have to be paid for. Those on lowest incomes rely on government spending more than most. So yes, those on the minimum wage should also contribute to funding those services. Of course if the government wanted to help those people it could have raised the personal allowance but instead it targeted its giveaway at people on £150k+. Who are least likely to spend it, and who don't need the help right now.
    Taxes have been ratchetted higher and higher for twenty years. And the result is the highest tax rates for 74 years and just as Laffer predicts we have seen growth stall to anemic levels as a result.

    Putting up taxes doesn't lead to growth. The high tax experiment has failed, it's time to return to what works.
    From someone who has already admitted he doesn't know where on the so-called Laffer curve we are.

    And now claiming that we have to make a dramatic change on the basis of an assumption about what he doesn't know. And characterises that as a a "return to what works."

    Sheer gibberish.
    Economics involves uncertainty, anyone who claims otherwise is being dishonest.

    I believe we are to the right of the peak of the Laffer Curve and have given my argument as to why.

    Do I "know" that for certain? No, its impossible to do so. But we have IMHO very good evidence to demonstrate that.

    Nobody here who disagrees can possibly "know" for certain that we aren't to the right of the peak either. All we can do is make an educated guess and hope we're right.
    You don't even know that there is such a thing as either a 'peak' or a 'curve'.
    There's just the observation that sometimes cutting taxes results in an increased tax take in that particular case.
    There is no evidence at all for anything more than that.
    Of course we know there's a curve. Do you think we'd generate more or less in taxes if we had 100% tax rates?

    The question is the shape and rates of the curve, not the fact that there is a curve.
    Many have debunked the correlation that you and Laffer insists works. You have adopted your usual stopped clock strategy to prove its validity.
    Nobody has debunked Laffer, people dispute it but disputing something and debunking it are two completely different things.

    As it stands, we have the highest tax rates and most anaemic long term growth rates in three quarters of a century. You can argue that's correlation instead of causation if you please, but that doesn't make my view that one is causing the other wrong.

    I said the Tories were wrong to put up taxes, and tore up my membership as a result. I will stand by my principles, high taxes doesn't work.
    This is infantile.

    Firstly, the Laffer curve is about the relationship between tax rate & tax revenue. It has nothing to do with GDP growth.

    Secondly, Laffer is obviously true at the extremes. But in the wide middle range of possible tax takes there’s no evidence for any strong relationship at all & the point of maximum revenue is probably much higher than current rates.

    If you want to talk about the relationship between GDP & tax rates by all means do so, but Laffer is tangential at best.

    Of course Laffer is something to do with GDP growth.

    If you have lower taxes, which leads to more growth, which leads to more revenues by taking a smaller slice of a bigger pie, then that is how the Laffer curve works past its peak.

    What evidence do you have that the point of maximum revenue is probably much higher than current rates? And when current rates are at their highest in 74 years, and when under projections tax rates even after today's announcements will still be higher than in any of the past forty years before the pandemic, then just how high do you intend for taxes to get before we get out of problems economically?
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 2,876
    MaxPB said:

    carnforth said:

    NIESR “We now forecast that the energy support guarantee, together with the tax cuts announced today, will lead to positive GDP growth in the fourth quarter of this year, shortening the recession and raising annual GDP growth to around 2 per cent over 2023-24.”

    (By the way, are the NIESR actually considered independent and/or unbiased? They are often talked about in that way.)

    This fiscal package should boost growth in the very near term. Just like the Lawson and Barber booms. Markets are questioning more the longer term impact.
    Yes, I don't see what longer term impact on growth this is going to have. For once you and I are in agreement.

    It's a huge gamble and one that I don't see coming off and the nation will pick up the pieces for this act of idiocy from Truss and Kwarteng.

    Labour really do have a once in a generation opportunity after they win their majority to put up taxes on older people and wealthier people now that the Tories have handed them a budget which will need tens of billions in tax rises and tens of billions in spending cuts.
    Labour ought to ram electoral reform through Parliament to lock the Conservatives out of power, but they won't because they're selfish and stupid. And they won't inflict any of the pain of cleaning this mess up on old people because there are too many of them and they vote too religiously.

    If Starmer does manage to get into office at the next election then he won't be in power. He'll just flail about for a couple of years, drowning in the ditch that Truss has thrown him into, before being replaced by whatever malign creature (Braverman? Rees-Mogg?) that the Conservative selectorate chooses to foist upon us next. I don't see any way out of the death spiral right now.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,489
    https://www.metabunk.org/threads/ukrainian-uap-study-observation-of-events.12607/

    Very detailed examination of the Ukrainian uap report, and it has issues.

    BTW I was wrong, only one sighting is claimed to be from both telescopes simultaneously. So could be flies.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 25,536

    The Commons are having a fortnight off for conferences now, aren't they?

    That's it, Commons has adjourned. Half-day and off to for Friday fish and chips after the biggest tax cutting budget since the 1970s. Commons not back until October 11, after SNP conference. Someone remember to switch off the lights in the chamber.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,401
    Is this falling apart quicker than Thatchers brief experiment with moneterism in the early eighties?

    All this stuff from the Govt about taking a similar approach to borrowing as what the Govt did during Covid, rather ignores that that was supposed to be a one off that needed painful measures to compensate for, not building upon voluntarily!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 42,081
    Scott_xP said:

    I don’t mean to alarm you, but the Chancellor of the Exchequer has created an absolutely catastrophic bin fire and is now patiently explaining that the Treasury remit is only petrol and matches https://twitter.com/katie_martin_fx/status/1573331859567689728

    Is every political commentator now a failed stand-up comedian? Instead of intelligent discourse we have a never-ending edition of Have I Got News For You.
  • MaxPB said:

    UK tax burden as share of GDP



    From the IFS analysis. https://ifs.org.uk/articles/mini-budget-response

    So this horrendously risky tax cutting budget has taken us from the highest rate in 74 years to a tax rate still higher than any of the past 40 pre-pandemic years?

    Taxes are still too high. They should be cut further still, but this is a good start.
    The problem, Bart, is that they're cutting the wrong taxes. There's simply no need to give people like me a £15k+ tax cut. That money would be better used cutting some other tax that is going to have a much higher multiplier.
    Correct me if I'm wrong but just a few months ago weren't you considering moving to Switzerland, which would have meant the government loses all of your taxes?

    If the tax changes encourage more people like your good self to be paying British taxes instead of Swiss, German, Singaporean or American taxes then that could boost revenues overall even while you benefit personally.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 25,536
    Deutsche Bank doubling down on their call for an emergency Bank of England rate rise next: “A large, inter-meeting rate hike from the Bank of England as soon as next week to regain credibility with the market…And, a strong signal that it willing to do “whatever it takes””

    “The market is giving very strong signals that it is no longer willing to fund the UK’s external deficit position at the current configuration of UK real yields and exchange rate” - DB’s Saravelos


    https://twitter.com/MehreenKhn/status/1573336570564050951
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 2,876

    The Commons are having a fortnight off for conferences now, aren't they?

    Parliament is about as much use as a chocolate fireguard. They might as well stay at their bloody conferences.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 53,955
    Scott_xP said:

    Deutsche Bank doubling down on their call for an emergency Bank of England rate rise next: “A large, inter-meeting rate hike from the Bank of England as soon as next week to regain credibility with the market…And, a strong signal that it willing to do “whatever it takes””

    “The market is giving very strong signals that it is no longer willing to fund the UK’s external deficit position at the current configuration of UK real yields and exchange rate” - DB’s Saravelos


    https://twitter.com/MehreenKhn/status/1573336570564050951

    No wonder they sacked Tom Scholar on the very first day.

  • Scott_xP said:

    I don’t mean to alarm you, but the Chancellor of the Exchequer has created an absolutely catastrophic bin fire and is now patiently explaining that the Treasury remit is only petrol and matches https://twitter.com/katie_martin_fx/status/1573331859567689728

    Is every political commentator now a failed stand-up comedian? Instead of intelligent discourse we have a never-ending edition of Have I Got News For You.
    I believe they used to call it gallows humour.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 43,125
    edited September 23
    pigeon said:

    MaxPB said:

    I'm honestly still a bit shocked at the new fiscal policy direction. We've completely abandoned any pretence of sound money and fully embraced US style trickle down capitalism.

    Someone in the next few years is going to have to make absolutely eye watering spending cuts including a lot of sacred cows like healthcare and old age spending to make this work. We can't have an 11% state and public sector pension rise that will add £16bn to spending per year and another £6-7bn the following years and all of these tax cuts. One of these is unaffordable.

    Reeves will have to be the butcher who slashes public services or it's the IMF.

    Maybe that is the whole truss gameplan?

    There's a bad joke doing the rounds at the moment....
    And his name is Kwasi ?
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 2,876
    MaxPB said:

    UK tax burden as share of GDP



    From the IFS analysis. https://ifs.org.uk/articles/mini-budget-response

    So this horrendously risky tax cutting budget has taken us from the highest rate in 74 years to a tax rate still higher than any of the past 40 pre-pandemic years?

    Taxes are still too high. They should be cut further still, but this is a good start.
    The problem, Bart, is that they're cutting the wrong taxes. There's simply no need to give people like me a £15k+ tax cut. That money would be better used cutting some other tax that is going to have a much higher multiplier.
    But if they gave the money to poor people instead then what would become of the mink and foie gras industries?
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 2,286
    The important thing to remember is that the pound in your pocket is worth exactly the same.
  • pigeon said:

    MaxPB said:

    I'm honestly still a bit shocked at the new fiscal policy direction. We've completely abandoned any pretence of sound money and fully embraced US style trickle down capitalism.

    Someone in the next few years is going to have to make absolutely eye watering spending cuts including a lot of sacred cows like healthcare and old age spending to make this work. We can't have an 11% state and public sector pension rise that will add £16bn to spending per year and another £6-7bn the following years and all of these tax cuts. One of these is unaffordable.

    Reeves will have to be the butcher who slashes public services or it's the IMF.

    Maybe that is the whole truss gameplan?

    There's a bad joke doing the rounds at the moment to the effect that the Tories know they're going to lose next time, so they're aiming to thieve as much as possible in what time they have left (through bungs for the rich,) and then trash the country so comprehensively that Labour can't repair it. They can then con thick old people into blaming Starmer for the fact that a loaf of bread now costs half their weekly pension, and get voted back in again the next time around.
    A Westminster insider explained to me in all seriousness that this was the game plan. Either it works or Labour gets left with a mess they can't fix, and the Tories get back in again. 1972 redux.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 18,885
    FPT "Special Fiscal Operation” by Kwasi Kwateng.

    Brutal, utterly brutal. True though.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 25,536

    Instead of intelligent discourse we have a never-ending edition of Have I Got News For You.

    We just had the HIGNFY host as PM for 3 years. What do you expect?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 53,955
    “Liz Erdogan” is apparently the joke spreading around Washington DC.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 22,564
    In the event of any of these carefully thought out policies failing it will be due to
    1)Remainers
    2)People not believing in growth hard enough
    3)Other people


    https://twitter.com/Smithmichaelw/status/1573323517168427009?s=20&t=tzMg8_SALBtwE6LXEZxbww
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,401
    As Sunak was trying to explain during the leadership election, a lower tax environment might be a good thing, but you need the public finances to be in reasonable order before you start slashing rates willy nilly. In the long run they may deliver higher growth and higher tax take to spend, but in the short term the bills need paying.
  • PeterMPeterM Posts: 302
    Brutal from Larry Summers...says the UK is behaving like an emerging market turning into a submerging market...

    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1573324063266803716?s=20&t=kgaCA3fWp0OStC03r9N7Qw
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 35,477

    MaxPB said:

    UK tax burden as share of GDP



    From the IFS analysis. https://ifs.org.uk/articles/mini-budget-response

    So this horrendously risky tax cutting budget has taken us from the highest rate in 74 years to a tax rate still higher than any of the past 40 pre-pandemic years?

    Taxes are still too high. They should be cut further still, but this is a good start.
    The problem, Bart, is that they're cutting the wrong taxes. There's simply no need to give people like me a £15k+ tax cut. That money would be better used cutting some other tax that is going to have a much higher multiplier.
    Correct me if I'm wrong but just a few months ago weren't you considering moving to Switzerland, which would have meant the government loses all of your taxes?

    If the tax changes encourage more people like your good self to be paying British taxes instead of Swiss, German, Singaporean or American taxes then that could boost revenues overall even while you benefit personally.
    We're thinking of leaving the UK for Jen's (and numbers 2 and 3) late primary and secondary schooling. Switzerland, especially the more conservative Italian, are appealing to us for those reasons. The tax cut doesn't really change our thinking very much.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 18,510

    “Liz Erdogan” is apparently the joke spreading around Washington DC.

    Wonder how long it took them to come up with that zinger.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 25,536
    alex_ said:

    As Sunak was trying to explain during the leadership election, a lower tax environment might be a good thing, but you need the public finances to be in reasonable order before you start slashing rates willy nilly. In the long run they may deliver higher growth and higher tax take to spend, but in the short term the bills need paying.

    You could have a hard-fought general election campaign, with very distinct policies and dividing lines, between a Truss party and a Sunak party at this point. As wide apart as most actual general elections, if not wider.
    https://twitter.com/thhamilton/status/1573253072402407424
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 53,955
    Scott_xP said:

    The Commons are having a fortnight off for conferences now, aren't they?

    That's it, Commons has adjourned. Half-day and off to for Friday fish and chips after the biggest tax cutting budget since the 1970s. Commons not back until October 11, after SNP conference. Someone remember to switch off the lights in the chamber.
    I rather suspect it may be recalled if the £ continues to tank.
  • pingping Posts: 2,810
    edited September 23
    biggles said:

    The important thing to remember is that the pound in your pocket is worth exactly the same.

    I think I can still rent a shopping trolley.

    For now.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 25,536
    The Conservative voter numbers here are absolutely dire for Truss/the govt. https://twitter.com/yougov/status/1573329185136844800
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 42,081
    Jonathan said:

    FPT "Special Fiscal Operation” by Kwasi Kwateng.

    Brutal, utterly brutal. True though.

    If Badenoch had won the leadership election you could have had a "Kemi-Kwasi" budget.
  • pigeon said:

    MaxPB said:

    I'm honestly still a bit shocked at the new fiscal policy direction. We've completely abandoned any pretence of sound money and fully embraced US style trickle down capitalism.

    Someone in the next few years is going to have to make absolutely eye watering spending cuts including a lot of sacred cows like healthcare and old age spending to make this work. We can't have an 11% state and public sector pension rise that will add £16bn to spending per year and another £6-7bn the following years and all of these tax cuts. One of these is unaffordable.

    Reeves will have to be the butcher who slashes public services or it's the IMF.

    Maybe that is the whole truss gameplan?

    There's a bad joke doing the rounds at the moment to the effect that the Tories know they're going to lose next time, so they're aiming to thieve as much as possible in what time they have left (through bungs for the rich,) and then trash the country so comprehensively that Labour can't repair it. They can then con thick old people into blaming Starmer for the fact that a loaf of bread now costs half their weekly pension, and get voted back in again the next time around.
    A Westminster insider explained to me in all seriousness that this was the game plan. Either it works or Labour gets left with a mess they can't fix, and the Tories get back in again. 1972 redux.
    That might be the plan, but it depends on the bombs left behind being unexploded- things were OK until you took over, that sort of thing.

    Truss and KamiKwarteng couldn't even get that bit right- the booby traps are going to go off before they can leave the building.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 18,885
    edited September 23
    Tories. If you don't learn from history, you are doomed to repeat it.

    Draft Sunak?
  • PeterMPeterM Posts: 302
    Unbelievable how the Tories trashed Corbyn yet their spending makes him look like Ebeneezer Scrooge....
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 35,477
    What the government has also failed to do is unlock the hundreds of billions that businesses are sitting on. We really need a step change in the business investment environment and policies to support that, not cutting of personal taxes for already pretty well off people.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 43,125

    Scott_xP said:

    Deutsche Bank doubling down on their call for an emergency Bank of England rate rise next: “A large, inter-meeting rate hike from the Bank of England as soon as next week to regain credibility with the market…And, a strong signal that it willing to do “whatever it takes””

    “The market is giving very strong signals that it is no longer willing to fund the UK’s external deficit position at the current configuration of UK real yields and exchange rate” - DB’s Saravelos


    https://twitter.com/MehreenKhn/status/1573336570564050951

    No wonder they sacked Tom Scholar on the very first day.

    Pity the poor sod who gets his gig.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 26,618
    IshmaelZ said:

    https://www.metabunk.org/threads/ukrainian-uap-study-observation-of-events.12607/

    Very detailed examination of the Ukrainian uap report, and it has issues.

    BTW I was wrong, only one sighting is claimed to be from both telescopes simultaneously. So could be flies.

    THIS does sound like a plausible explanation


    "My "theory" is that this group is out of funding, because of the war. So, why not set up a nice interesting thing that attracts people? I cannot prove this though."
  • TimSTimS Posts: 2,243
    Glad I exchanged a load of pounds for Euros a couple of days ago. I wish I'd done more. (got a renovation project in France just kicking off and fortunately it's about half covered by what I've already transferred over the last year).

    Could GBP get to Dollar parity? That would certainly be interesting.
  • eekeek Posts: 21,107
    https://twitter.com/adrianweckler/status/1573334172340551684

    After today’s UK Budget’s Vat-free tourist shopping, for Irish person travelling to England…

    1. iPhone 14 Pro
    Ireland - €1,339
    England - €980

    2. MacBook Air M2
    Ireland - €1,529
    England - €1,170

    Of which not a single penny will be made by the UK Government...
  • TazTaz Posts: 5,821
    Scott_xP said:
    Well that’s what they get when they get a leader endorsed by a small amount of its MPs
  • pingping Posts: 2,810
    edited September 23
    Genuine question for @BartholomewRoberts

    Are you disappointed in the reception to this budget among journos, with the markets and on PB? Oh, and the think tanks etc? Oh and the polling in the header.

    I mean, stuff like the IFS judgement must sting, surely?
  • PeterMPeterM Posts: 302
    Think that reaction from Larry Summers says it all...UK is in danger of turning into Venezuela without the sunshine
  • TazTaz Posts: 5,821

    “Liz Erdogan” is apparently the joke spreading around Washington DC.

    Wonder how long it took them to come up with that zinger.
    So brilliant it could have come from the pen of Marina Hyde
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 35,477
    eek said:

    https://twitter.com/adrianweckler/status/1573334172340551684

    After today’s UK Budget’s Vat-free tourist shopping, for Irish person travelling to England…

    1. iPhone 14 Pro
    Ireland - €1,339
    England - €980

    2. MacBook Air M2
    Ireland - €1,529
    England - €1,170

    Of which not a single penny will be made by the UK Government...

    Presumably they will have to stay somewhere and eat food so they support other industries with business which otherwise wouldn't have happened. VAT free shopping is not a huge problem, in fact it makes a lot of sense because it probably has a pretty high multiplier for not a lot of tax loss.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 18,885
    The Tories spent much of the last decade talking about paying down debt. Going crazy on the credit card now is completely at odds with that message.

    It reminds me of the Lib Dems and tuition fees.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 25,536
    Taz said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Well that’s what they get when they get a leader endorsed by a small amount of its MPs
    Which is why I asked earlier if the '22 will change the rules before Truss gets VONCed
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 1,121
    edited September 23
    eek said:

    https://twitter.com/adrianweckler/status/1573334172340551684

    After today’s UK Budget’s Vat-free tourist shopping, for Irish person travelling to England…

    1. iPhone 14 Pro
    Ireland - €1,339
    England - €980

    2. MacBook Air M2
    Ireland - €1,529
    England - €1,170

    Of which not a single penny will be made by the UK Government...

    The taxes on the employment of the person working in the phone shop? The accommodation and meals the tourist buys to make the trip?
  • PeterMPeterM Posts: 302

    pigeon said:

    MaxPB said:

    I'm honestly still a bit shocked at the new fiscal policy direction. We've completely abandoned any pretence of sound money and fully embraced US style trickle down capitalism.

    Someone in the next few years is going to have to make absolutely eye watering spending cuts including a lot of sacred cows like healthcare and old age spending to make this work. We can't have an 11% state and public sector pension rise that will add £16bn to spending per year and another £6-7bn the following years and all of these tax cuts. One of these is unaffordable.

    Reeves will have to be the butcher who slashes public services or it's the IMF.

    Maybe that is the whole truss gameplan?

    There's a bad joke doing the rounds at the moment to the effect that the Tories know they're going to lose next time, so they're aiming to thieve as much as possible in what time they have left (through bungs for the rich,) and then trash the country so comprehensively that Labour can't repair it. They can then con thick old people into blaming Starmer for the fact that a loaf of bread now costs half their weekly pension, and get voted back in again the next time around.
    A Westminster insider explained to me in all seriousness that this was the game plan. Either it works or Labour gets left with a mess they can't fix, and the Tories get back in again. 1972 redux.
    That might be the plan, but it depends on the bombs left behind being unexploded- things were OK until you took over, that sort of thing.

    Truss and KamiKwarteng couldn't even get that bit right- the booby traps are going to go off before they can leave the building.
    if that is true it is so cynical the Tories should never be trusted with office again
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 22,564
    Scott_xP said:

    Kwarteng and Truss hit the pound running https://on.ft.com/3f80XXf | opinion

    "Remember how, in the austerity years between 2010 and 2016, the Conservative party cared about the national debt? Remember how, in the Brexit years between 2016 and 2019, it said there were more important things that GDP growth? Remember how, in the Johnson years between 2019 and 2022, it believed in the big state? You remember right. Everything must change for the party in government to remain the same. But this felt like the most reckless metamorphosis yet."
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 35,477
    carnforth said:

    eek said:

    https://twitter.com/adrianweckler/status/1573334172340551684

    After today’s UK Budget’s Vat-free tourist shopping, for Irish person travelling to England…

    1. iPhone 14 Pro
    Ireland - €1,339
    England - €980

    2. MacBook Air M2
    Ireland - €1,529
    England - €1,170

    Of which not a single penny will be made by the UK Government...

    The taxes on the employment of the person working in the phone shop? The accommodation and meals the tourist buys to make the trip?
    The hotel room, the pubs, the restaurants etc... VAT free shopping is about the one policy in this mess that actually makes sense.
  • PeterM said:

    Unbelievable how the Tories trashed Corbyn yet their spending makes him look like Ebeneezer Scrooge....

    She's Goode, She's Goode...

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7b2T8K2D-ps
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 17,955
    Kwartang's mini budget reminds me of the William Atherton character (Walter Peck) in Ghostbusters who against all the advice turn the power off.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 9,706
    eek said:

    https://twitter.com/adrianweckler/status/1573334172340551684

    After today’s UK Budget’s Vat-free tourist shopping, for Irish person travelling to England…

    1. iPhone 14 Pro
    Ireland - €1,339
    England - €980

    2. MacBook Air M2
    Ireland - €1,529
    England - €1,170

    Of which not a single penny will be made by the UK Government...

    I'm sure that retailers in Ireland will be howling about the consequences and hoping for some sort of remedy to prevent them losing business to the UK.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 35,477
    Jonathan said:

    The Tories spent much of the last decade talking about paying down debt. Going crazy on the credit card now is completely at odds with that message.

    It reminds me of the Lib Dems and tuition fees.

    Yes, this feels to me like a generational error for the Tories. The brand for competence was trashed by Boris quite badly and now the brand for sound money has been set on fire by his successor. If the Tories are competent and good with the nation's finances, people will rightly ask themselves why they deserve our votes.
  • Jonathan said:

    The Tories spent much of the last decade talking about paying down debt. Going crazy on the credit card now is completely at odds with that message.

    It reminds me of the Lib Dems and tuition fees.

    Yep, they've blown up the Conservative USP.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 9,706
    MaxPB said:

    What the government has also failed to do is unlock the hundreds of billions that businesses are sitting on. We really need a step change in the business investment environment and policies to support that, not cutting of personal taxes for already pretty well off people.

    Best for them to invest it somewhere abroad, less likely to suffer a sovereign debt crisis.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 36,115
    It all comes down to Covid and, dare I say, @contrarian's view of our reaction.

    Once you deem a situation, however seemingly dire, to be an emergency needing extraordinary fiscal measures then you move the Overton window dramatically.

    If you say Covid is a national emergency then you can say the NHS or the homeless or the railways or the cost of living crisis is a national emergency and go again on the fiscal splurging.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 22,564
    MaxPB said:

    carnforth said:

    eek said:

    https://twitter.com/adrianweckler/status/1573334172340551684

    After today’s UK Budget’s Vat-free tourist shopping, for Irish person travelling to England…

    1. iPhone 14 Pro
    Ireland - €1,339
    England - €980

    2. MacBook Air M2
    Ireland - €1,529
    England - €1,170

    Of which not a single penny will be made by the UK Government...

    The taxes on the employment of the person working in the phone shop? The accommodation and meals the tourist buys to make the trip?
    The hotel room, the pubs, the restaurants etc... VAT free shopping is about the one policy in this mess that actually makes sense.
    Does it apply to Northern Ireland? If so, that's a day trip with no spend for Eire citizens.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 15,495
    Black Friday.

    Could the last person to leave the UK please turn out the lights?
  • DriverDriver Posts: 925
    eek said:

    https://twitter.com/adrianweckler/status/1573334172340551684

    After today’s UK Budget’s Vat-free tourist shopping, for Irish person travelling to England…

    1. iPhone 14 Pro
    Ireland - €1,339
    England - €980

    2. MacBook Air M2
    Ireland - €1,529
    England - €1,170

    Of which not a single penny will be made by the UK Government...

    The business selling the goods won't make a profit from them?
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 1,121
    edited September 23

    MaxPB said:

    carnforth said:

    eek said:

    https://twitter.com/adrianweckler/status/1573334172340551684

    After today’s UK Budget’s Vat-free tourist shopping, for Irish person travelling to England…

    1. iPhone 14 Pro
    Ireland - €1,339
    England - €980

    2. MacBook Air M2
    Ireland - €1,529
    England - €1,170

    Of which not a single penny will be made by the UK Government...

    The taxes on the employment of the person working in the phone shop? The accommodation and meals the tourist buys to make the trip?
    The hotel room, the pubs, the restaurants etc... VAT free shopping is about the one policy in this mess that actually makes sense.
    Does it apply to Northern Ireland? If so, that's a day trip with no spend for Eire citizens.
    No. NIP prevents it. 20% VAT rather then 23%, though. Not really enough to make the trip.
  • MaxPB said:

    eek said:

    https://twitter.com/adrianweckler/status/1573334172340551684

    After today’s UK Budget’s Vat-free tourist shopping, for Irish person travelling to England…

    1. iPhone 14 Pro
    Ireland - €1,339
    England - €980

    2. MacBook Air M2
    Ireland - €1,529
    England - €1,170

    Of which not a single penny will be made by the UK Government...

    Presumably they will have to stay somewhere and eat food so they support other industries with business which otherwise wouldn't have happened. VAT free shopping is not a huge problem, in fact it makes a lot of sense because it probably has a pretty high multiplier for not a lot of tax loss.
    Its also amoral race to the bottom economics.

    Why should workers in the UK accept that goods they have to pay full price for are much cheaper for wealthy tourists. And what's to stop Ireland doing the same for UK tourists. Now no country gets any revenue.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 42,081
    eek said:

    https://twitter.com/adrianweckler/status/1573334172340551684

    After today’s UK Budget’s Vat-free tourist shopping, for Irish person travelling to England…

    1. iPhone 14 Pro
    Ireland - €1,339
    England - €980

    2. MacBook Air M2
    Ireland - €1,529
    England - €1,170

    Of which not a single penny will be made by the UK Government...

    Can you explain how an Irish person can travel to Great Britain and shop at Apple without the UK government generating any revenue at all?
  • tlg86 said:

    First like the Dollar.

    Greenback Dollar - Kingston Trio
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YvGxZD-HNCM
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 1,121

    MaxPB said:

    eek said:

    https://twitter.com/adrianweckler/status/1573334172340551684

    After today’s UK Budget’s Vat-free tourist shopping, for Irish person travelling to England…

    1. iPhone 14 Pro
    Ireland - €1,339
    England - €980

    2. MacBook Air M2
    Ireland - €1,529
    England - €1,170

    Of which not a single penny will be made by the UK Government...

    Presumably they will have to stay somewhere and eat food so they support other industries with business which otherwise wouldn't have happened. VAT free shopping is not a huge problem, in fact it makes a lot of sense because it probably has a pretty high multiplier for not a lot of tax loss.
    Its also amoral race to the bottom economics.

    Why should workers in the UK accept that goods they have to pay full price for are much cheaper for wealthy tourists. And what's to stop Ireland doing the same for UK tourists. Now no country gets any revenue.
    France already does. You can get the money back from a machine at the Eurostar terminal or airport.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 25,536
    Golly.
    Markets are now pricing in 5.5% interest rates from the @bankofengland next year.
    Up from 4.75% yesterday.
    Deutsche Bank saying BoE may need to table an emergency rate hike as soon as next week.
    Extraordinary.
    And, as I said yday, higher rates are a big, big deal.

    Ugh. https://twitter.com/edconwaysky/status/1572975530722627584
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 15,495
    biggles said:

    The important thing to remember is that the pound in your pocket is worth exactly the same.

    Damn, I was going to do that one.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 7,317

    pigeon said:

    MaxPB said:

    I'm honestly still a bit shocked at the new fiscal policy direction. We've completely abandoned any pretence of sound money and fully embraced US style trickle down capitalism.

    Someone in the next few years is going to have to make absolutely eye watering spending cuts including a lot of sacred cows like healthcare and old age spending to make this work. We can't have an 11% state and public sector pension rise that will add £16bn to spending per year and another £6-7bn the following years and all of these tax cuts. One of these is unaffordable.

    Reeves will have to be the butcher who slashes public services or it's the IMF.

    Maybe that is the whole truss gameplan?

    There's a bad joke doing the rounds at the moment to the effect that the Tories know they're going to lose next time, so they're aiming to thieve as much as possible in what time they have left (through bungs for the rich,) and then trash the country so comprehensively that Labour can't repair it. They can then con thick old people into blaming Starmer for the fact that a loaf of bread now costs half their weekly pension, and get voted back in again the next time around.
    A Westminster insider explained to me in all seriousness that this was the game plan. Either it works or Labour gets left with a mess they can't fix, and the Tories get back in again. 1972 redux.
    As I understand late sixties early seventies economics and politics, and please correct me where wrong as it’s quarter of a century before I was born, there was a push for growth starting even before Labour came in after long time out in 1964, but growth proved lumpy, typical boom bust period - but the political parties had ideology, for the Tories to cut tax take 1972 even more than K did today, resulted in overheating economy in 1974 when Labour came to power so very last thing economically they should do is honour all their spending pledges wot won them the election, but like idiots that is what they done, pour gasoline on a hot fire.

    The lesson I would take, a quest for growth can be a feast or famine journey, you need to reign in your own ideology and u turn on promises if there’s need to grow not shrink state and tax take, or need to forgo spending pledges when it’s overheating.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 43,125
    edited September 23
    MaxPB said:

    Jonathan said:

    The Tories spent much of the last decade talking about paying down debt. Going crazy on the credit card now is completely at odds with that message.

    It reminds me of the Lib Dems and tuition fees.

    Yes, this feels to me like a generational error for the Tories. The brand for competence was trashed by Boris quite badly and now the brand for sound money has been set on fire by his successor. If the Tories are competent and good with the nation's finances, people will rightly ask themselves why they deserve our votes.
    They certainly won't get a second chance of having a better targeted 'fiscal event' of this magnitude.
    There was certainly a case for a bold, growth oriented budget. But this looks as though they've blown all their firepower well wide of the target.

    I genuinely hope I'm wrong.
  • PeterMPeterM Posts: 302
    TOPPING said:

    It all comes down to Covid and, dare I say, @contrarian's view of our reaction.

    Once you deem a situation, however seemingly dire, to be an emergency needing extraordinary fiscal measures then you move the Overton window dramatically.

    If you say Covid is a national emergency then you can say the NHS or the homeless or the railways or the cost of living crisis is a national emergency and go again on the fiscal splurging.

    difference is this is continuous spending is it £132 billion a year or something. National debt £2 trillion...so about 6.5% per year on national debt
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 42,081

    Black Friday.

    Could the last person to leave the UK please turn out the lights?

    It's all being done to create conditions where you will be able to afford the home of your dreams upon your return from New York.
  • WillGWillG Posts: 166
    Finally one Western outlet reports on the real story.

    https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/09/putin-speech-delay-ukraine-world-leaders/671495/

    If an American president announced a major speech, booked the networks for 8 p.m., and then disappeared until the following morning, the analysis would be immediate and damning: chaos, disarray, indecision. The White House must be in crisis.

    In the past 24 hours, this is exactly what happened in Moscow. The Russian president really did announce a major speech, alert state television, warn journalists, and then disappear without explanation. Although Vladimir Putin finally gave his speech to the nation this morning, the same conclusions have to apply: chaos, disarray, indecision. The Kremlin must be in crisis.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 18,885
    edited September 23
    MaxPB said:

    Jonathan said:

    The Tories spent much of the last decade talking about paying down debt. Going crazy on the credit card now is completely at odds with that message.

    It reminds me of the Lib Dems and tuition fees.

    Yes, this feels to me like a generational error for the Tories. The brand for competence was trashed by Boris quite badly and now the brand for sound money has been set on fire by his successor. If the Tories are competent and good with the nation's finances, people will rightly ask themselves why they deserve our votes.
    I get the impression that Truss and Kwateng think they are being clever, they prioritised trying to present a fresh look to shake off 12 years of baggage, but ended up undermining one of the core values underpinning their party.

    Sometime those that consider themselves clever can be really, really dumb.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 15,495
    This budget is going to cost me big time in increased mortgage rates when I come to renew next year.

    I actually don’t remember a worse market response to a British budget, though my memory only goes back to the late 90s.
  • TOPPING said:

    It all comes down to Covid and, dare I say, @contrarian's view of our reaction.

    Once you deem a situation, however seemingly dire, to be an emergency needing extraordinary fiscal measures then you move the Overton window dramatically.

    If you say Covid is a national emergency then you can say the NHS or the homeless or the railways or the cost of living crisis is a national emergency and go again on the fiscal splurging.

    Except they aren't even doing that. None of the measures announced today relate to the most urgent problems facing the country.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 925
    Scott_xP said:

    Golly.
    Markets are now pricing in 5.5% interest rates from the @bankofengland next year.
    Up from 4.75% yesterday.
    Deutsche Bank saying BoE may need to table an emergency rate hike as soon as next week.
    Extraordinary.
    And, as I said yday, higher rates are a big, big deal.

    Ugh. https://twitter.com/edconwaysky/status/1572975530722627584

    Yesterday: BoE failed in its responsibilities, it should have increased interest rates more, this is terrible
    Today: BoE is going to have to increase interest rates again, this is terrible
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 43,125
    ping said:

    Genuine question for @BartholomewRoberts

    Are you disappointed in the reception to this budget among journos, with the markets and on PB? Oh, and the think tanks etc? Oh and the polling in the header.

    I mean, stuff like the IFS judgement must sting, surely?

    He's probably singing in his bath ?
  • PeterMPeterM Posts: 302
    Nigelb said:

    MaxPB said:

    Jonathan said:

    The Tories spent much of the last decade talking about paying down debt. Going crazy on the credit card now is completely at odds with that message.

    It reminds me of the Lib Dems and tuition fees.

    Yes, this feels to me like a generational error for the Tories. The brand for competence was trashed by Boris quite badly and now the brand for sound money has been set on fire by his successor. If the Tories are competent and good with the nation's finances, people will rightly ask themselves why they deserve our votes.
    They certainly won't get a second chance of having a better targeted 'fiscal event' of this magnitude.
    There was certainly a case for a bold, growth oriented budget. But this looks as though they've blown all their firepower well wide of the target.

    I genuinely hope I'm wrong.
    unbelievable...why not tax cuts fir those on 40% tax.....honestly think the Tories just want to attract mobile capital to shore economy up
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 18,510
    MaxPB said:

    carnforth said:

    eek said:

    https://twitter.com/adrianweckler/status/1573334172340551684

    After today’s UK Budget’s Vat-free tourist shopping, for Irish person travelling to England…

    1. iPhone 14 Pro
    Ireland - €1,339
    England - €980

    2. MacBook Air M2
    Ireland - €1,529
    England - €1,170

    Of which not a single penny will be made by the UK Government...

    The taxes on the employment of the person working in the phone shop? The accommodation and meals the tourist buys to make the trip?
    The hotel room, the pubs, the restaurants etc... VAT free shopping is about the one policy in this mess that actually makes sense.
    I think a fair bit of it makes sense.

    I do question why some things that are in the emergency budget aren't just part of a main budget down the line though.

    I think that having the temerity to grab for growth was always going to meet with a chorus of objection (and they must have known this) - so perhaps they just thought get the fruitier things out of the way now.

    In many ways, the enterprise zones, the part we know least about, is the most interesting aspect of the budget. How will these interact with freeports - are they what Truss eventually believes in for the whole economy?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 30,691
    MaxPB said:

    Everyone except a few very high earners will be worse off in the short term because petrol prices will go up in a few weeks unless Sterling mounts an unlikely recovery. Given all of the prime pumping surely it's time for the BoE to call an emergency MPC meeting and put rates up by 1%.

    Odd state of affairs with the government and the BoE doing pushmepullme with the economy. It's like we have Tom & Jerry or Laurel & Hardy in charge although I'm not sure which is which. Certainly looks like it'll be another fine mess to be cleared up by whoever succeeds these jokers.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 43,125
    Scott_xP said:
    Just complaints from those whom Truss sidelined, no doubt ?

    ...“I’ve never known a government that has had so little support from its own backbenches, just four days sitting days in,” observed one MP.

    The normally ebullient benches that roar behind a chancellor as they make a fiscal statement to the Commons were more hushed on Friday. Several present said few order papers were waved and there was only a smattering of comments of “hear, hear”, allegedly orchestrated by party whips.

    “I completely despair, because I’m a member of a party that stands up for the squeezed middle not the very rich. This will be politically toxic and economically dubious,” said another MP present for the statement.

    In a sign of the level of discontent, several Conservatives rose in the Commons chamber to aim barbed and hostile interventions at Kwarteng. Mel Stride, the chair of the Treasury select committee and former campaign manager for Rishi Sunak’s leadership bid, said there was a “vast void” in the mini-budget.

    Stride criticised the Treasury’s refusal to publish fresh economic forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility based on the measures unveiled this week, saying the markets were getting “twitchy” and “now is the time for transparency” to “provide a calmness”...
  • TazTaz Posts: 5,821
    Scott_xP said:

    Taz said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Well that’s what they get when they get a leader endorsed by a small amount of its MPs
    Which is why I asked earlier if the '22 will change the rules before Truss gets VONCed
    I think they will have to do something because this summers contest was a total shambles.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 36,115
    PeterM said:

    TOPPING said:

    It all comes down to Covid and, dare I say, @contrarian's view of our reaction.

    Once you deem a situation, however seemingly dire, to be an emergency needing extraordinary fiscal measures then you move the Overton window dramatically.

    If you say Covid is a national emergency then you can say the NHS or the homeless or the railways or the cost of living crisis is a national emergency and go again on the fiscal splurging.

    difference is this is continuous spending is it £132 billion a year or something. National debt £2 trillion...so about 6.5% per year on national debt
    Yes of course it's a huge difference but people now expect billions upon billions to be thrown at problems. Because that is what the government does. Covid, energy bills, cost of living, growth. It's what a government is for.
  • carnforth said:

    MaxPB said:

    eek said:

    https://twitter.com/adrianweckler/status/1573334172340551684

    After today’s UK Budget’s Vat-free tourist shopping, for Irish person travelling to England…

    1. iPhone 14 Pro
    Ireland - €1,339
    England - €980

    2. MacBook Air M2
    Ireland - €1,529
    England - €1,170

    Of which not a single penny will be made by the UK Government...

    Presumably they will have to stay somewhere and eat food so they support other industries with business which otherwise wouldn't have happened. VAT free shopping is not a huge problem, in fact it makes a lot of sense because it probably has a pretty high multiplier for not a lot of tax loss.
    Its also amoral race to the bottom economics.

    Why should workers in the UK accept that goods they have to pay full price for are much cheaper for wealthy tourists. And what's to stop Ireland doing the same for UK tourists. Now no country gets any revenue.
    France already does. You can get the money back from a machine at the Eurostar terminal or airport.
    It all smells to me. Beggar your neighbour capitalism.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 7,317
    Jonathan said:

    MaxPB said:

    Jonathan said:

    The Tories spent much of the last decade talking about paying down debt. Going crazy on the credit card now is completely at odds with that message.

    It reminds me of the Lib Dems and tuition fees.

    Yes, this feels to me like a generational error for the Tories. The brand for competence was trashed by Boris quite badly and now the brand for sound money has been set on fire by his successor. If the Tories are competent and good with the nation's finances, people will rightly ask themselves why they deserve our votes.
    MaxPB said:

    Jonathan said:

    The Tories spent much of the last decade talking about paying down debt. Going crazy on the credit card now is completely at odds with that message.

    It reminds me of the Lib Dems and tuition fees.

    Yes, this feels to me like a generational error for the Tories. The brand for competence was trashed by Boris quite badly and now the brand for sound money has been set on fire by his successor. If the Tories are competent and good with the nation's finances, people will rightly ask themselves why they deserve our votes.
    I get the impression that Truss and Kwateng think they are being clever, they prioritised trying to present a fresh look to shake off 12 years of baggage, but ended up undermining one of the core values underpinning their party.

    Sometime those that consider themselves clever can be really, really dumb.
    Dumb or narrow minded, over confident, arrogant? They strike me as people who will turn up on political documentaries in twenty years, creases on their brow date back to 2023 24, saying “and there we were, so utterly convinced in our own minds we were doing the right thing.”
This discussion has been closed.