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YouGov finds that just 40% of the youngest voters support the monarchy. – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,591
edited September 2022 in General
imageYouGov finds that just 40% of the youngest voters support the monarchy. – politicalbetting.com

After more than a week when the total focus of the vast majority of people in the UK has been on the monarchy, YouGov has produced the above interesting polling which I’ve no doubt will be referred to again and again.

Read the full story here

«13456

Comments

  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 31,924
    No comment.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,348
    In no way am I surprised by any of these findings.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,627
    Some historical context on this figure would be nice.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    noneoftheabove said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    Nigelb said:

    Interesting spot on the Today program about the queue.
    An academic and four research assistants have been trying to address how 'representative' it is of the country, and have spent a day or so counting and interviewing samples of those in line.
    Politically it's a little odd - well over 50% Conservative voters, but also majority Remainer.
    And a large majority saying they are there as an expression of gratitude, rather than grief.

    (Somewhere in the first half an hour if you're interested.)

    I don't find it at all surprising that people who value the Queens work ethic and the institutions that support that and are willing to, and can afford to, stand for a long time to say thanks include a much higher than average proportion of traditional Conservative Remainers.
    Don't understand this work ethic stuff. She had a job. She did it.
    Like most, I am not planning on working til my nineties.
    No, but light, pleasant "volunteering" duties are gold dust for the elderly, look at the queues to work for free for the National trust. you'll be crying out for a nice rle in which you can, say, open parliament once a year and go out to lunch to talk to younger people once a week.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 15,752
    edited September 2022
    FPT:

    On a completely different topic, it’s time to start keeping an eye on weather conditions for the coming gas-limited winter.

    It’s just starting to get cold enough for domestic and commercial heating in some of the cooler parts of Europe, and dark enough for meaningful electricity usage from lighting. The ideal weather conditions through the winter and next spring are:

    - Windy in North and Western Europe, to get the wind turbines firing
    - Sunny in Southern Europe for solar (winter sun is too weak to make a difference in the North)
    - Wet in Norway to maximise their hydro electric output
    - Mild across the whole continent (though ideally freezing in the Donbass for all those poorly clad Russian soldiers)

    Ie a strongly positive North Atlantic Oscillation and screaming westerlies.

    The first batch of seasonal climate forecasts are not encouraging. They’re showing higher than normal pressure in the North Atlantic and low pressure over the Med. Which means limited wind for the turbines, dry weather in Norway, low light levels in Southern Europe, and cold weather in Germany and C Europe. Ie a negative NAO. Good news for Putin if it happens.

    Today is an example of what we want in the UK. Wind at decent 10gw, solar hitting 7gw, nuclear at the top of its recent range* and CCGT generation only 3.8gw with most turbines idle.

    *though note top of recent range is barely over 4gw vs around 6-7gw a few years ago.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,627
    IshmaelZ said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    Nigelb said:

    Interesting spot on the Today program about the queue.
    An academic and four research assistants have been trying to address how 'representative' it is of the country, and have spent a day or so counting and interviewing samples of those in line.
    Politically it's a little odd - well over 50% Conservative voters, but also majority Remainer.
    And a large majority saying they are there as an expression of gratitude, rather than grief.

    (Somewhere in the first half an hour if you're interested.)

    I don't find it at all surprising that people who value the Queens work ethic and the institutions that support that and are willing to, and can afford to, stand for a long time to say thanks include a much higher than average proportion of traditional Conservative Remainers.
    Don't understand this work ethic stuff. She had a job. She did it.
    Like most, I am not planning on working til my nineties.
    No, but light, pleasant "volunteering" duties are gold dust for the elderly, look at the queues to work for free for the National trust. you'll be crying out for a nice rle in which you can, say, open parliament once a year and go out to lunch to talk to younger people once a week.
    I don’t think anyone would describe HMs duties as “light”.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,463
    When they develop a greater familiarity with the British political class the young may change their views about a hereditary head of state.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 31,924
    An awful lot of Don't Knows from the young'uns. Looks less like revolution, or attachment at the other end of the age scale, and more like familiarity.
  • MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,793
    Soon dear friends

    -dissolution of the monarchy
    -end of FPTP
    -re-entering the EU
    -unification of Ireland
    -federalisation

    All in the lifetime of HYUFD.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 15,065
    edited September 2022
    This polling shows that there is zero possibility of the monarchy being replaced in foreseeable time. It has a majority or plurality in every single group.

    With the Tories in power: don't even think about it.

    With Labour: think for two seconds where the votes it needs to get come from - Tory pro monarchists; and its current vote is plurality pro monarchy.

    This is a complete diversion from the interesting question of how it should develop and change.
  • DynamoDynamo Posts: 651
    FPT
    kyf_100 said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Aye..


    One of the things that has really hit home for me the last week, is just how much the UK is a two-tier system - plebs and patricians. It is that binary. A lot of ink has been spilled since the financial crisis about the 1%, the vanishing middle class and so on, but there is altogether something different at work in Britain.

    I think societies work best when there is a degree of social mobility for all. The "football pyramid" model of society if you like. But what we actually have is a super league to which the likes of 99% of us will never be invited.

    The ossification of our society and class system is exactly what makes the UK such a popular place for the elites of other countries to launder their ill gotten gains. They know it's safe from revolution and regime change here. And the last week has been a fantastic ad for that...
    Also look at the school system - not just the segregation into private and state, but how property prices go up near the "better" state schools because no-one who's got any money wants their brats mixing with riffraff and filth. It's not like that in say Scandinavia.

    If there were really such a thing as hereditary difference in ability (which there isn't), they wouldn't need segregated schools or for that matter the personal inheritance of wealth either. They'd get to the top because of how clever they were. The British ruling class know deep down that it's they who are dirt, dishonest thicko thieving dirt. That's why they "think" everyone else is, and recognise each other as "proper" by means of such a shared belief.

    Even on here, you get some of them doing things like boasting how much they've spent on meals. I mean, seriously, how much more common as muck can you get than telling everyone how much you've paid for something?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,176
    RobD said:

    Some historical context on this figure would be nice.

    Yes - with a lot of Don't Knows 40% might be a decent base, a perfectly normal figure which usually grows in time, or a radical drop.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,791
    I am so impressed by the Don Bolduc, the Republican Senatorial candidate in New Hampshire.

    Just a few weeks ago, in the Primary debate he said:

    "I signed a letter with 120 other generals and admirals saying that Trump won the election, and, damnit, I stand by my letter"

    Yesterday he said:

    "I’ve spent the past couple weeks talking to Granite Staters all over the state from every party, and I have come to the conclusion—and I want to be definitive on this—the election was not stolen"
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Dynamo said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Aye..


    One of the things that has really hit home for me the last week, is just how much the UK is a two-tier system - plebs and patricians. It is that binary. A lot of ink has been spilled since the financial crisis about the 1%, the vanishing middle class and so on, but there is altogether something different at work in Britain.

    I think societies work best when there is a degree of social mobility for all. The "football pyramid" model of society if you like. But what we actually have is a super league to which the likes of 99% of us will never be invited.

    The ossification of our society and class system is exactly what makes the UK such a popular place for the elites of other countries to launder their ill gotten gains. They know it's safe from revolution and regime change here. And the last week has been a fantastic ad for that...
    Yep. You got it, @kyf_100

    A fantastic ad taking the form of possibly the biggest parade of capdoffing ever, all presented as if it's dignified.

    There's no respect at the top towards the proles here. Proles are essentially seen as oxygen thieves. There's not even any respect from the uneducated petty bourgeoisie either (whose mass party is of course the Tory party, although that's not its only function), who associate anyone they feel is beneath them socially with notions of dirt and subhumanity and filth.

    That's not so in most other countries. Say some working class or poor peasant man is let's say a grandfather, he's fathered 5 children and he's got 15 grandchildren and they're having a family gathering. In most places in the world, that guy - assuming nobody's got any good reason to think he's a criminal or smth - is going to be respected. In Britain the petty bourgeoisie, bourgeoisie, and aristo class will almost to a person view him as scum.

    Britain is the country of Thomas Malthus, H G Wells, Herbert Spencer, Francis Galton, etc., who all fantasised about those they saw as the dross of society getting wiped out because they deserved it.
    You are such a HOWLING snob, is your problem. Who is this uneducated petty bourgeoisie? We don't have such a thing here, you have to go a long way down to find people who consistently truant enough to count as uneducated. your point is a snobbish one, what you mean is Less Educated Than Dynamo.

    And you presumably despise the proles too for their contented wallowing in their prolery, because look at the furthest right column in the header and how littlethey diverge from the ABCs about the monarchy.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,260
    edited September 2022
    Good afternoon

    I have been busy today but have reviewed todays thread, and indeed last nights, and I would like to make the following observations

    It is beyond doubt that the death of the Queen has been a profound event that has upset an enormous number of people, both here and across the globe

    The queues are quite unique, and are unlikely to be seen again but to those attempting to create division for their own agenda, including comments on the make up of the crowd, I would just say they are manifestly wrong as there is no doubt we have a varied and broad cultural make up in the UK

    Furthermore, I would suggest to republicans, that there are times when sowing division does not benefit their cause and antagonises far more than is necessary, and perversely strengthens the monarchy

    I respect greatly @Casino_Royale for the way he wore his heart on his sleeve, and I also respect those who would seek a republic but quietly allow the millions to grieve in whatever way they find solace and even closure

    Monday will be remarkable and an enormous global event showcasing the UK at it's best and for once can we just put aside brexit, republicanism, and division and just be immensely proud of our country

    I have noticed this forum has a couple of posters, obviously under instruction from Moscow but they are best ignored

    Politics can recommence on Tuesday and it will be a very interesting two years to the next GE
  • LeonLeon Posts: 63,422
    With all due respect, this is ludicrous

    Any political institution in the world would kill every kitten in the catteries of Kilburn to get these figures of support

    I thought the young weren’t meant to care about this old crone yet 63% of them report being at least a little upset

    in the age range 25-49 53% support the monarchy and only 27% oppose - so that’s 2 to 1. And the figures get, of course, much higher as you go up the ages

    Unless Charles actually stabs his own children with one of those leaky pens we are decades from the monarchy being remotely imperilled
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Dynamo said:

    FPT

    kyf_100 said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Aye..


    One of the things that has really hit home for me the last week, is just how much the UK is a two-tier system - plebs and patricians. It is that binary. A lot of ink has been spilled since the financial crisis about the 1%, the vanishing middle class and so on, but there is altogether something different at work in Britain.

    I think societies work best when there is a degree of social mobility for all. The "football pyramid" model of society if you like. But what we actually have is a super league to which the likes of 99% of us will never be invited.

    The ossification of our society and class system is exactly what makes the UK such a popular place for the elites of other countries to launder their ill gotten gains. They know it's safe from revolution and regime change here. And the last week has been a fantastic ad for that...
    Also look at the school system - not just the segregation into private and state, but how property prices go up near the "better" state schools because no-one who's got any money wants their brats mixing with riffraff and filth. It's not like that in say Scandinavia.

    If there were really such a thing as hereditary difference in ability (which there isn't), they wouldn't need segregated schools or for that matter the personal inheritance of wealth either. They'd get to the top because of how clever they were. The British ruling class know deep down that it's they who are dirt, dishonest thicko thieving dirt. That's why they "think" everyone else is, and recognise each other as "proper" by means of such a shared belief.

    Even on here, you get some of them doing things like boasting how much they've spent on meals. I mean, seriously, how much more common as muck can you get than telling everyone how much you've paid for something?
    It is highly useful info, especially when it is usually look how *little* this meal costs.

    It's the footwear where it becomes wearisome; loose talk about £6,000 a pair polo boots and so on. repulsive.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 15,065
    edited September 2022
    MightyAlex said:

    Soon dear friends

    -dissolution of the monarchy
    -end of FPTP
    -re-entering the EU
    -unification of Ireland
    -federalisation

    All in the lifetime of HYUFD.

    The only one of these I would like - Irish union - won't happen soon. Like the others.

    Unless Labour get going we won't even enter EFTA/EEA.

    End of monarchy? Literally Zero possibility. Compare their support against support for any other option. Then consider the political danger. Then ask whether either a Labour or Tory leader will put a monarchy referendum in a manifesto. It isn't going to happen.

    In Jeremy Corbyn's words on the subject "We are not going to do it".

    Move on.

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,791
    edited September 2022
    TimS said:

    FPT:

    On a completely different topic, it’s time to start keeping an eye on weather conditions for the coming gas-limited winter.

    It’s just starting to get cold enough for domestic and commercial heating in some of the cooler parts of Europe, and dark enough for meaningful electricity usage from lighting. The ideal weather conditions through the winter and next spring are:

    - Windy in North and Western Europe, to get the wind turbines firing
    - Sunny in Southern Europe for solar (winter sun is too weak to make a difference in the North)
    - Wet in Norway to maximise their hydro electric output
    - Mild across the whole continent (though ideally freezing in the Donbass for all those poorly clad Russian soldiers)

    Ie a strongly positive North Atlantic Oscillation and screaming westerlies.

    The first batch of seasonal climate forecasts are not encouraging. They’re showing higher than normal pressure in the North Atlantic and low pressure over the Med. Which means limited wind for the turbines, dry weather in Norway, low light levels in Southern Europe, and cold weather in Germany and C Europe. Ie a negative NAO. Good news for Putin if it happens.

    Today is an example of what we want in the UK. Wind at decent 10gw, solar hitting 7gw, nuclear at the top of its recent range* and CCGT generation only 3.8gw with most turbines idle.

    *though note top of recent range is barely over 4gw vs around 6-7gw a few years ago.

    Spain also has lots of wind, and (of course) Germany has more than anyone:



    Italy (as always seems to be the case these days) really is the laggard.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 79,566
    MightyAlex said:

    Soon dear friends

    -dissolution of the monarchy
    -end of FPTP
    -re-entering the EU
    -unification of Ireland
    -federalisation

    All in the lifetime of HYUFD.

    You are most generous in wishing him so long a life.
    Or an excessive optimist.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,922
    IshmaelZ said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    Nigelb said:

    Interesting spot on the Today program about the queue.
    An academic and four research assistants have been trying to address how 'representative' it is of the country, and have spent a day or so counting and interviewing samples of those in line.
    Politically it's a little odd - well over 50% Conservative voters, but also majority Remainer.
    And a large majority saying they are there as an expression of gratitude, rather than grief.

    (Somewhere in the first half an hour if you're interested.)

    I don't find it at all surprising that people who value the Queens work ethic and the institutions that support that and are willing to, and can afford to, stand for a long time to say thanks include a much higher than average proportion of traditional Conservative Remainers.
    Don't understand this work ethic stuff. She had a job. She did it.
    Like most, I am not planning on working til my nineties.
    No, but light, pleasant "volunteering" duties are gold dust for the elderly, look at the queues to work for free for the National trust. you'll be crying out for a nice rle in which you can, say, open parliament once a year and go out to lunch to talk to younger people once a week.
    Not if the younger person is the 2060s version of Donald Trump and I have to treat them diplomatically rather than use the oldies privilege to be direct (i.e. rude).
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    edited September 2022
    Dynamo said:

    FPT

    kyf_100 said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Aye..


    One of the things that has really hit home for me the last week, is just how much the UK is a two-tier system - plebs and patricians. It is that binary. A lot of ink has been spilled since the financial crisis about the 1%, the vanishing middle class and so on, but there is altogether something different at work in Britain.

    I think societies work best when there is a degree of social mobility for all. The "football pyramid" model of society if you like. But what we actually have is a super league to which the likes of 99% of us will never be invited.

    The ossification of our society and class system is exactly what makes the UK such a popular place for the elites of other countries to launder their ill gotten gains. They know it's safe from revolution and regime change here. And the last week has been a fantastic ad for that...
    Also look at the school system - not just the segregation into private and state, but how property prices go up near the "better" state schools because no-one who's got any money wants their brats mixing with riffraff and filth. It's not like that in say Scandinavia.

    If there were really such a thing as hereditary difference in ability (which there isn't), they wouldn't need segregated schools or for that matter the personal inheritance of wealth either. They'd get to the top because of how clever they were. The British ruling class know deep down that it's they who are dirt, dishonest thicko thieving dirt. That's why they "think" everyone else is, and recognise each other as "proper" by means of such a shared belief.

    Even on here, you get some of them doing things like boasting how much they've spent on meals. I mean, seriously, how much more common as muck can you get than telling everyone how much you've paid for something?
    Do you have any evidence that there is no hereditary difference in ability? Everything I've ever seen suggests that genes play a significant part in determining IQ. Perhaps you have other abilities in mind?

    Whatever your political preferences this seems pretty much unanswerable.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,176
    Leon said:

    With all due respect, this is ludicrous

    Any political institution in the world would kill every kitten in the catteries of Kilburn to get these figures of support

    I thought the young weren’t meant to care about this old crone yet 63% of them report being at least a little upset

    in the age range 25-49 53% support the monarchy and only 27% oppose - so that’s 2 to 1. And the figures get, of course, much higher as you go up the ages

    Unless Charles actually stabs his own children with one of those leaky pens we are decades from the monarchy being remotely imperilled

    The monarchy can never afford to be complacent. But it is often implied (or outright stated) that 'the end is near' based off what is at worst lukewarm feelings from the young, or ethnic minorities.

    The monarchy can handle things getting lukewarm. It's people being strongly against that would be an issue.

    That's why its if there is a clash between crown and Tory government that problems would come.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 79,566
    For those following the shenanigans, a very good thread updating the state of play on Trump’s document theft case.

    https://twitter.com/Teri_Kanefield/status/1570967096842153984
    OK. we have the DOJ's motion in the 11th Circuit for a partial stay pending appeal.

    As before, the request is limited to the 100 docs marked classified, "the portions of the order causing the most serious and immediate harm. . . "
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,791
    Dynamo said:

    FPT

    kyf_100 said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Aye..


    One of the things that has really hit home for me the last week, is just how much the UK is a two-tier system - plebs and patricians. It is that binary. A lot of ink has been spilled since the financial crisis about the 1%, the vanishing middle class and so on, but there is altogether something different at work in Britain.

    I think societies work best when there is a degree of social mobility for all. The "football pyramid" model of society if you like. But what we actually have is a super league to which the likes of 99% of us will never be invited.

    The ossification of our society and class system is exactly what makes the UK such a popular place for the elites of other countries to launder their ill gotten gains. They know it's safe from revolution and regime change here. And the last week has been a fantastic ad for that...
    Also look at the school system - not just the segregation into private and state, but how property prices go up near the "better" state schools because no-one who's got any money wants their brats mixing with riffraff and filth. It's not like that in say Scandinavia.

    If there were really such a thing as hereditary difference in ability (which there isn't), they wouldn't need segregated schools or for that matter the personal inheritance of wealth either. They'd get to the top because of how clever they were. The British ruling class know deep down that it's they who are dirt, dishonest thicko thieving dirt. That's why they "think" everyone else is, and recognise each other as "proper" by means of such a shared belief.

    Even on here, you get some of them doing things like boasting how much they've spent on meals. I mean, seriously, how much more common as muck can you get than telling everyone how much you've paid for something?
    "If there were really such a thing as hereditary difference in ability"

    Are you really saying that there is absolutely no genetic component of intelligence?

    That's quite a claim.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 19,583
    rcs1000 said:

    Dynamo said:

    FPT

    kyf_100 said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Aye..


    One of the things that has really hit home for me the last week, is just how much the UK is a two-tier system - plebs and patricians. It is that binary. A lot of ink has been spilled since the financial crisis about the 1%, the vanishing middle class and so on, but there is altogether something different at work in Britain.

    I think societies work best when there is a degree of social mobility for all. The "football pyramid" model of society if you like. But what we actually have is a super league to which the likes of 99% of us will never be invited.

    The ossification of our society and class system is exactly what makes the UK such a popular place for the elites of other countries to launder their ill gotten gains. They know it's safe from revolution and regime change here. And the last week has been a fantastic ad for that...
    Also look at the school system - not just the segregation into private and state, but how property prices go up near the "better" state schools because no-one who's got any money wants their brats mixing with riffraff and filth. It's not like that in say Scandinavia.

    If there were really such a thing as hereditary difference in ability (which there isn't), they wouldn't need segregated schools or for that matter the personal inheritance of wealth either. They'd get to the top because of how clever they were. The British ruling class know deep down that it's they who are dirt, dishonest thicko thieving dirt. That's why they "think" everyone else is, and recognise each other as "proper" by means of such a shared belief.

    Even on here, you get some of them doing things like boasting how much they've spent on meals. I mean, seriously, how much more common as muck can you get than telling everyone how much you've paid for something?
    "If there were really such a thing as hereditary difference in ability"

    Are you really saying that there is absolutely no genetic component of intelligence?

    That's quite a claim.
    It would seem to directly refute any inherited characteristics, so its clearly bollocks.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,922
    edited September 2022
    rcs1000 said:

    TimS said:

    FPT:

    On a completely different topic, it’s time to start keeping an eye on weather conditions for the coming gas-limited winter.

    It’s just starting to get cold enough for domestic and commercial heating in some of the cooler parts of Europe, and dark enough for meaningful electricity usage from lighting. The ideal weather conditions through the winter and next spring are:

    - Windy in North and Western Europe, to get the wind turbines firing
    - Sunny in Southern Europe for solar (winter sun is too weak to make a difference in the North)
    - Wet in Norway to maximise their hydro electric output
    - Mild across the whole continent (though ideally freezing in the Donbass for all those poorly clad Russian soldiers)

    Ie a strongly positive North Atlantic Oscillation and screaming westerlies.

    The first batch of seasonal climate forecasts are not encouraging. They’re showing higher than normal pressure in the North Atlantic and low pressure over the Med. Which means limited wind for the turbines, dry weather in Norway, low light levels in Southern Europe, and cold weather in Germany and C Europe. Ie a negative NAO. Good news for Putin if it happens.

    Today is an example of what we want in the UK. Wind at decent 10gw, solar hitting 7gw, nuclear at the top of its recent range* and CCGT generation only 3.8gw with most turbines idle.

    *though note top of recent range is barely over 4gw vs around 6-7gw a few years ago.

    Spain also has lots of wind, and (of course) Germany has more than anyone:



    Italy (as always seems to be the case these days) really is the laggard.
    If we really wanted lots of hot air to power the country we should not have got rid of Boris.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Leon said:

    With all due respect, this is ludicrous

    Any political institution in the world would kill every kitten in the catteries of Kilburn to get these figures of support

    I thought the young weren’t meant to care about this old crone yet 63% of them report being at least a little upset

    in the age range 25-49 53% support the monarchy and only 27% oppose - so that’s 2 to 1. And the figures get, of course, much higher as you go up the ages

    Unless Charles actually stabs his own children with one of those leaky pens we are decades from the monarchy being remotely imperilled

    Quite so. *Peaceful* and non regicidal transitions ex monarchy are rare as hens' teeth - see Athens, Rome, France, England, Russia. Take away the motive for regicide by preventing kings from imposing ship money and salt taxes, and where's thee incentive for that? What examples are there for peaceful monarchy - republic transitions, not counting where it's a by product of dropping out of an empire?
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 5,132
    TimS said:

    FPT:

    On a completely different topic, it’s time to start keeping an eye on weather conditions for the coming gas-limited winter.

    It’s just starting to get cold enough for domestic and commercial heating in some of the cooler parts of Europe, and dark enough for meaningful electricity usage from lighting. The ideal weather conditions through the winter and next spring are:

    - Windy in North and Western Europe, to get the wind turbines firing
    - Sunny in Southern Europe for solar (winter sun is too weak to make a difference in the North)
    - Wet in Norway to maximise their hydro electric output
    - Mild across the whole continent (though ideally freezing in the Donbass for all those poorly clad Russian soldiers)

    Ie a strongly positive North Atlantic Oscillation and screaming westerlies.

    The first batch of seasonal climate forecasts are not encouraging. They’re showing higher than normal pressure in the North Atlantic and low pressure over the Med. Which means limited wind for the turbines, dry weather in Norway, low light levels in Southern Europe, and cold weather in Germany and C Europe. Ie a negative NAO. Good news for Putin if it happens.

    Today is an example of what we want in the UK. Wind at decent 10gw, solar hitting 7gw, nuclear at the top of its recent range* and CCGT generation only 3.8gw with most turbines idle.

    *though note top of recent range is barely over 4gw vs around 6-7gw a few years ago.

    I saw the other day while I was reading news about Armenia/Azerbaijan that Azerbaijan is planning to up it's gas supplies to Europe by about 30%. Still not a huge amount in total but given what's going on between the two countries it was interesting timing.

    https://www.rferl.org/amp/azerbaijan-increase-eu-gas-exports/32029812.html
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    noneoftheabove said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    Nigelb said:

    Interesting spot on the Today program about the queue.
    An academic and four research assistants have been trying to address how 'representative' it is of the country, and have spent a day or so counting and interviewing samples of those in line.
    Politically it's a little odd - well over 50% Conservative voters, but also majority Remainer.
    And a large majority saying they are there as an expression of gratitude, rather than grief.

    (Somewhere in the first half an hour if you're interested.)

    I don't find it at all surprising that people who value the Queens work ethic and the institutions that support that and are willing to, and can afford to, stand for a long time to say thanks include a much higher than average proportion of traditional Conservative Remainers.
    Don't understand this work ethic stuff. She had a job. She did it.
    Like most, I am not planning on working til my nineties.
    No, but light, pleasant "volunteering" duties are gold dust for the elderly, look at the queues to work for free for the National trust. you'll be crying out for a nice rle in which you can, say, open parliament once a year and go out to lunch to talk to younger people once a week.
    Not if the younger person is the 2060s version of Donald Trump and I have to treat them diplomatically rather than use the oldies privilege to be direct (i.e. rude).
    Even meeting the Donald beats daytime telly, and how do you know she wasn't rude to him?
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    RCS - I believe Stalin had some fairly crackpot ideas about science.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lysenkoism
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,176
    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    With all due respect, this is ludicrous

    Any political institution in the world would kill every kitten in the catteries of Kilburn to get these figures of support

    I thought the young weren’t meant to care about this old crone yet 63% of them report being at least a little upset

    in the age range 25-49 53% support the monarchy and only 27% oppose - so that’s 2 to 1. And the figures get, of course, much higher as you go up the ages

    Unless Charles actually stabs his own children with one of those leaky pens we are decades from the monarchy being remotely imperilled

    Quite so. *Peaceful* and non regicidal transitions ex monarchy are rare as hens' teeth - see Athens, Rome, France, England, Russia. Take away the motive for regicide by preventing kings from imposing ship money and salt taxes, and where's thee incentive for that?
    That's why the arguments focus on things like meritocratic principles, but by and large people find it hard to be worked up by that without any urgency. Even the Commonwealth Realms need more than that, they have the argument about being truly independent and so on, and even then they take their sweet time about it.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,922
    IshmaelZ said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    Nigelb said:

    Interesting spot on the Today program about the queue.
    An academic and four research assistants have been trying to address how 'representative' it is of the country, and have spent a day or so counting and interviewing samples of those in line.
    Politically it's a little odd - well over 50% Conservative voters, but also majority Remainer.
    And a large majority saying they are there as an expression of gratitude, rather than grief.

    (Somewhere in the first half an hour if you're interested.)

    I don't find it at all surprising that people who value the Queens work ethic and the institutions that support that and are willing to, and can afford to, stand for a long time to say thanks include a much higher than average proportion of traditional Conservative Remainers.
    Don't understand this work ethic stuff. She had a job. She did it.
    Like most, I am not planning on working til my nineties.
    No, but light, pleasant "volunteering" duties are gold dust for the elderly, look at the queues to work for free for the National trust. you'll be crying out for a nice rle in which you can, say, open parliament once a year and go out to lunch to talk to younger people once a week.
    Not if the younger person is the 2060s version of Donald Trump and I have to treat them diplomatically rather than use the oldies privilege to be direct (i.e. rude).
    Even meeting the Donald beats daytime telly, and how do you know she wasn't rude to him?
    I'm sure she was, just in ways that went directly over his head.....
  • LeonLeon Posts: 63,422
    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    With all due respect, this is ludicrous

    Any political institution in the world would kill every kitten in the catteries of Kilburn to get these figures of support

    I thought the young weren’t meant to care about this old crone yet 63% of them report being at least a little upset

    in the age range 25-49 53% support the monarchy and only 27% oppose - so that’s 2 to 1. And the figures get, of course, much higher as you go up the ages

    Unless Charles actually stabs his own children with one of those leaky pens we are decades from the monarchy being remotely imperilled

    The monarchy can never afford to be complacent. But it is often implied (or outright stated) that 'the end is near' based off what is at worst lukewarm feelings from the young, or ethnic minorities.

    The monarchy can handle things getting lukewarm. It's people being strongly against that would be an issue.

    That's why its if there is a clash between crown and Tory government that problems would come.
    Indeed

    And these figures must be seen in context. One of the Late Queen’s sons, Prince Andrew, has been exposed as (allegedly?) a horrible pedophile, a predatory monster who has to pay off his victims. He is such a scandal he has to be hidden away until it is unavoidable that he is seen, then he is hidden away again

    He narrowly avoided a rape trial in New York

    Meanwhile a beautiful black woman who married into the family is claiming they are all racist

    It’s about as bad as it gets. It is hard to envisage a worse context for the Royal Family, within the realms of the Likely. I guess Prince William could join the Wagner group and be seen shooting Ukrainian ballet dancers? Apart from that any deeper scandal strikes me as highly improbable

    And still the monarchy has rock solid support. Two to one or more. It isn’t going anywhere



  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,791
    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    With all due respect, this is ludicrous

    Any political institution in the world would kill every kitten in the catteries of Kilburn to get these figures of support

    I thought the young weren’t meant to care about this old crone yet 63% of them report being at least a little upset

    in the age range 25-49 53% support the monarchy and only 27% oppose - so that’s 2 to 1. And the figures get, of course, much higher as you go up the ages

    Unless Charles actually stabs his own children with one of those leaky pens we are decades from the monarchy being remotely imperilled

    Quite so. *Peaceful* and non regicidal transitions ex monarchy are rare as hens' teeth - see Athens, Rome, France, England, Russia. Take away the motive for regicide by preventing kings from imposing ship money and salt taxes, and where's thee incentive for that? What examples are there for peaceful monarchy - republic transitions, not counting where it's a by product of dropping out of an empire?
    Bulgaria 1946
    Greece 1924
    Greece 1973
    Iceland 1944
    Italy 1946
  • thartthart Posts: 139
    Dynamo said:

    FPT

    kyf_100 said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Aye..


    One of the things that has really hit home for me the last week, is just how much the UK is a two-tier system - plebs and patricians. It is that binary. A lot of ink has been spilled since the financial crisis about the 1%, the vanishing middle class and so on, but there is altogether something different at work in Britain.

    I think societies work best when there is a degree of social mobility for all. The "football pyramid" model of society if you like. But what we actually have is a super league to which the likes of 99% of us will never be invited.

    The ossification of our society and class system is exactly what makes the UK such a popular place for the elites of other countries to launder their ill gotten gains. They know it's safe from revolution and regime change here. And the last week has been a fantastic ad for that...
    Also look at the school system - not just the segregation into private and state, but how property prices go up near the "better" state schools because no-one who's got any money wants their brats mixing with riffraff and filth. It's not like that in say Scandinavia.

    If there were really such a thing as hereditary difference in ability (which there isn't), they wouldn't need segregated schools or for that matter the personal inheritance of wealth either. They'd get to the top because of how clever they were. The British ruling class know deep down that it's they who are dirt, dishonest thicko thieving dirt. That's why they "think" everyone else is, and recognise each other as "proper" by means of such a shared belief.

    Even on here, you get some of them doing things like boasting how much they've spent on meals. I mean, seriously, how much more common as muck can you get than telling everyone how much you've paid for something?
    Some good points but i think there are hereditary differences in ability. One thing you are right about is the segregation by property prices so the middle classes hog the best schools. This means intelligent poor childrrn have very little chance. You then of course get the chav phenomenom.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,850
    40-29.
    Excellent for Prince George's prospects around 2070 or so.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,627
    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    With all due respect, this is ludicrous

    Any political institution in the world would kill every kitten in the catteries of Kilburn to get these figures of support

    I thought the young weren’t meant to care about this old crone yet 63% of them report being at least a little upset

    in the age range 25-49 53% support the monarchy and only 27% oppose - so that’s 2 to 1. And the figures get, of course, much higher as you go up the ages

    Unless Charles actually stabs his own children with one of those leaky pens we are decades from the monarchy being remotely imperilled

    Quite so. *Peaceful* and non regicidal transitions ex monarchy are rare as hens' teeth - see Athens, Rome, France, England, Russia. Take away the motive for regicide by preventing kings from imposing ship money and salt taxes, and where's thee incentive for that? What examples are there for peaceful monarchy - republic transitions, not counting where it's a by product of dropping out of an empire?
    Italy? Although they dropped out of their own empire.

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    FrankBooth said:

    RCS - I believe Stalin had some fairly crackpot ideas about science.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lysenkoism

    Are you saying Lysenko stole Stalin's ideas?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,791
    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    With all due respect, this is ludicrous

    Any political institution in the world would kill every kitten in the catteries of Kilburn to get these figures of support

    I thought the young weren’t meant to care about this old crone yet 63% of them report being at least a little upset

    in the age range 25-49 53% support the monarchy and only 27% oppose - so that’s 2 to 1. And the figures get, of course, much higher as you go up the ages

    Unless Charles actually stabs his own children with one of those leaky pens we are decades from the monarchy being remotely imperilled

    The monarchy can never afford to be complacent. But it is often implied (or outright stated) that 'the end is near' based off what is at worst lukewarm feelings from the young, or ethnic minorities.

    The monarchy can handle things getting lukewarm. It's people being strongly against that would be an issue.

    That's why its if there is a clash between crown and Tory government that problems would come.
    Indeed

    And these figures must be seen in context. One of the Late Queen’s sons, Prince Andrew, has been exposed as (allegedly?) a horrible pedophile, a predatory monster who has to pay off his victims. He is such a scandal he has to be hidden away until it is unavoidable that he is seen, then he is hidden away again

    He narrowly avoided a rape trial in New York

    Meanwhile a beautiful black woman who married into the family is claiming they are all racist

    It’s about as bad as it gets. It is hard to envisage a worse context for the Royal Family, within the realms of the Likely. I guess Prince William could join the Wagner group and be seen shooting Ukrainian ballet dancers? Apart from that any deeper scandal strikes me as highly improbable

    And still the monarchy has rock solid support. Two to one or more. It isn’t going anywhere



    Can you be exposed as an alleged pedophile?
  • SandraMcSandraMc Posts: 768
    I have just returned from Guernsey and in St Peters Port I heard a man in his 20s say to his friend that he had witnessed at the weekend the official proclamation announcing King Charles III. He said that half of him felt that this was an archiac and ridiculous ritual but the other half felt that he was witnessing history and a sense of awe.
  • thartthart Posts: 139
    From these figures support for the monarchy such as it is in the diverse under 50s is very luke warm and could evaporate quickly. And time will of course take care of the cap doffing over 65s. So for Republicans all to play for with their greatest asset King Charles on the throne
  • LeonLeon Posts: 63,422
    rcs1000 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    With all due respect, this is ludicrous

    Any political institution in the world would kill every kitten in the catteries of Kilburn to get these figures of support

    I thought the young weren’t meant to care about this old crone yet 63% of them report being at least a little upset

    in the age range 25-49 53% support the monarchy and only 27% oppose - so that’s 2 to 1. And the figures get, of course, much higher as you go up the ages

    Unless Charles actually stabs his own children with one of those leaky pens we are decades from the monarchy being remotely imperilled

    Quite so. *Peaceful* and non regicidal transitions ex monarchy are rare as hens' teeth - see Athens, Rome, France, England, Russia. Take away the motive for regicide by preventing kings from imposing ship money and salt taxes, and where's thee incentive for that? What examples are there for peaceful monarchy - republic transitions, not counting where it's a by product of dropping out of an empire?
    Bulgaria 1946
    Greece 1924
    Greece 1973
    Iceland 1944
    Italy 1946
    This Wiki page contains a brilliant list of all the Abolitions of Monarchies


    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abolition_of_monarchy

    “Peaceful” Abolition does happen, but it always seems to come after some enormous political, military, financial, or even familial (Nepal) trauma
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 3,424
    NigelB said: "Since the Presidential elections are the biggest political betting events, I don't think there are all that many PB regulars unaware of the political battles over Obama's expansion of Medicaid, etc."

    Well, then, why don't you correct the mistaken comments I see so often here? (I didn't name individuals who were making those mistakes, because I think that -- usually -- hinders rational discussion.)

    And here, I suspect, are three things you didn't know about "ObamaCare", as it is often called:
    1. It included a tax on "Cadillac" plans, private plans that were too generous.
    2. It resulted in the closing of rural hospitals. (If you want more details, look for an article by Anemona Hartocollis in the NYT some years ago.
    3. After it had been in effect for some years, life expectancy in the United States fell, beginning in 2014. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_United_States#Life_expectancy

    Nor is it likely that you know that George W. Bush proposed a substantial expansion of Medicare benefits, Part D, which passed. (Incidentally, that has probably had positive effects outside the United States. By increasing the expenditure for drugs here, it probably incentivized American drug companies to spend more on research.)
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 6,086
    edited September 2022
    MightyAlex said:

    Soon dear friends

    -dissolution of the monarchy
    -end of FPTP
    -re-entering the EU
    -unification of Ireland
    -federalisation

    All in the lifetime of HYUFD.

    I doubt it. Any one of those happening would shake him to the core. Two would finish him off. So no chance of him seeing all five, even if they all were to happen.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 63,422
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    With all due respect, this is ludicrous

    Any political institution in the world would kill every kitten in the catteries of Kilburn to get these figures of support

    I thought the young weren’t meant to care about this old crone yet 63% of them report being at least a little upset

    in the age range 25-49 53% support the monarchy and only 27% oppose - so that’s 2 to 1. And the figures get, of course, much higher as you go up the ages

    Unless Charles actually stabs his own children with one of those leaky pens we are decades from the monarchy being remotely imperilled

    The monarchy can never afford to be complacent. But it is often implied (or outright stated) that 'the end is near' based off what is at worst lukewarm feelings from the young, or ethnic minorities.

    The monarchy can handle things getting lukewarm. It's people being strongly against that would be an issue.

    That's why its if there is a clash between crown and Tory government that problems would come.
    Indeed

    And these figures must be seen in context. One of the Late Queen’s sons, Prince Andrew, has been exposed as (allegedly?) a horrible pedophile, a predatory monster who has to pay off his victims. He is such a scandal he has to be hidden away until it is unavoidable that he is seen, then he is hidden away again

    He narrowly avoided a rape trial in New York

    Meanwhile a beautiful black woman who married into the family is claiming they are all racist

    It’s about as bad as it gets. It is hard to envisage a worse context for the Royal Family, within the realms of the Likely. I guess Prince William could join the Wagner group and be seen shooting Ukrainian ballet dancers? Apart from that any deeper scandal strikes me as highly improbable

    And still the monarchy has rock solid support. Two to one or more. It isn’t going anywhere



    Can you be exposed as an alleged pedophile?
    I’m trying to be sensitive to the site, so you don’t get sued!

    Are we allowed to say Andrew is deffo a P-word? Is he lawyering those that do?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,473
    rcs1000 said:

    TimS said:

    FPT:

    On a completely different topic, it’s time to start keeping an eye on weather conditions for the coming gas-limited winter.

    It’s just starting to get cold enough for domestic and commercial heating in some of the cooler parts of Europe, and dark enough for meaningful electricity usage from lighting. The ideal weather conditions through the winter and next spring are:

    - Windy in North and Western Europe, to get the wind turbines firing
    - Sunny in Southern Europe for solar (winter sun is too weak to make a difference in the North)
    - Wet in Norway to maximise their hydro electric output
    - Mild across the whole continent (though ideally freezing in the Donbass for all those poorly clad Russian soldiers)

    Ie a strongly positive North Atlantic Oscillation and screaming westerlies.

    The first batch of seasonal climate forecasts are not encouraging. They’re showing higher than normal pressure in the North Atlantic and low pressure over the Med. Which means limited wind for the turbines, dry weather in Norway, low light levels in Southern Europe, and cold weather in Germany and C Europe. Ie a negative NAO. Good news for Putin if it happens.

    Today is an example of what we want in the UK. Wind at decent 10gw, solar hitting 7gw, nuclear at the top of its recent range* and CCGT generation only 3.8gw with most turbines idle.

    *though note top of recent range is barely over 4gw vs around 6-7gw a few years ago.

    Spain also has lots of wind, and (of course) Germany has more than anyone:



    Italy (as always seems to be the case these days) really is the laggard.

    Most of Italy is remarkable unwindy.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    rcs1000 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    With all due respect, this is ludicrous

    Any political institution in the world would kill every kitten in the catteries of Kilburn to get these figures of support

    I thought the young weren’t meant to care about this old crone yet 63% of them report being at least a little upset

    in the age range 25-49 53% support the monarchy and only 27% oppose - so that’s 2 to 1. And the figures get, of course, much higher as you go up the ages

    Unless Charles actually stabs his own children with one of those leaky pens we are decades from the monarchy being remotely imperilled

    Quite so. *Peaceful* and non regicidal transitions ex monarchy are rare as hens' teeth - see Athens, Rome, France, England, Russia. Take away the motive for regicide by preventing kings from imposing ship money and salt taxes, and where's thee incentive for that? What examples are there for peaceful monarchy - republic transitions, not counting where it's a by product of dropping out of an empire?
    Bulgaria 1946
    Greece 1924
    Greece 1973
    Iceland 1944
    Italy 1946
    Communist coup
    had to do a runner
    had to do a runner
    Side effect of independence
    Borderline pass, but relevant events over previous 6 years

    my point stands: losing the monarchy will be a side effect of something else. We won't just think Let's have a monarchyref like we think Let's have an indyref.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,463
    thart said:

    From these figures support for the monarchy such as it is in the diverse under 50s is very luke warm and could evaporate quickly. And time will of course take care of the cap doffing over 65s. So for Republicans all to play for with their greatest asset King Charles on the throne

    This is the same kind of "reasoning" that results in Labour supporters claiming that any current Tory government will be the last one ever.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 63,422
    Occurs to me the great counter example to all the Abolitions is the greatest monarchy of all: Rome

    From Republic to Empire, and it was as an Empire that it reached its remarkable zenith
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,791
    Jim_Miller said:

    NigelB said: "Since the Presidential elections are the biggest political betting events, I don't think there are all that many PB regulars unaware of the political battles over Obama's expansion of Medicaid, etc."

    Well, then, why don't you correct the mistaken comments I see so often here? (I didn't name individuals who were making those mistakes, because I think that -- usually -- hinders rational discussion.)

    And here, I suspect, are three things you didn't know about "ObamaCare", as it is often called:
    1. It included a tax on "Cadillac" plans, private plans that were too generous.
    2. It resulted in the closing of rural hospitals. (If you want more details, look for an article by Anemona Hartocollis in the NYT some years ago.
    3. After it had been in effect for some years, life expectancy in the United States fell, beginning in 2014. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_United_States#Life_expectancy

    Nor is it likely that you know that George W. Bush proposed a substantial expansion of Medicare benefits, Part D, which passed. (Incidentally, that has probably had positive effects outside the United States. By increasing the expenditure for drugs here, it probably incentivized American drug companies to spend more on research.)

    I think you are really quite mad if you think that the decline in life expectancy seen in the US post 2014 is due to Obamacare. (You would also need to explain why Massachusetts did not see a similar trend shifted forward a decade, given they were first with an Obamacare type system.)
  • LeonLeon Posts: 63,422
    IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    TimS said:

    FPT:

    On a completely different topic, it’s time to start keeping an eye on weather conditions for the coming gas-limited winter.

    It’s just starting to get cold enough for domestic and commercial heating in some of the cooler parts of Europe, and dark enough for meaningful electricity usage from lighting. The ideal weather conditions through the winter and next spring are:

    - Windy in North and Western Europe, to get the wind turbines firing
    - Sunny in Southern Europe for solar (winter sun is too weak to make a difference in the North)
    - Wet in Norway to maximise their hydro electric output
    - Mild across the whole continent (though ideally freezing in the Donbass for all those poorly clad Russian soldiers)

    Ie a strongly positive North Atlantic Oscillation and screaming westerlies.

    The first batch of seasonal climate forecasts are not encouraging. They’re showing higher than normal pressure in the North Atlantic and low pressure over the Med. Which means limited wind for the turbines, dry weather in Norway, low light levels in Southern Europe, and cold weather in Germany and C Europe. Ie a negative NAO. Good news for Putin if it happens.

    Today is an example of what we want in the UK. Wind at decent 10gw, solar hitting 7gw, nuclear at the top of its recent range* and CCGT generation only 3.8gw with most turbines idle.

    *though note top of recent range is barely over 4gw vs around 6-7gw a few years ago.

    Spain also has lots of wind, and (of course) Germany has more than anyone:



    Italy (as always seems to be the case these days) really is the laggard.

    Most of Italy is remarkable unwindy.
    The AEOLIANS say Hi
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 79,566
    Jim_Miller said:

    NigelB said: "Since the Presidential elections are the biggest political betting events, I don't think there are all that many PB regulars unaware of the political battles over Obama's expansion of Medicaid, etc."

    Well, then, why don't you correct the mistaken comments I see so often here? (I didn't name individuals who were making those mistakes, because I think that -- usually -- hinders rational discussion.)

    And here, I suspect, are three things you didn't know about "ObamaCare", as it is often called:
    1. It included a tax on "Cadillac" plans, private plans that were too generous.
    2. It resulted in the closing of rural hospitals. (If you want more details, look for an article by Anemona Hartocollis in the NYT some years ago.
    3. After it had been in effect for some years, life expectancy in the United States fell, beginning in 2014. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_United_States#Life_expectancy

    Nor is it likely that you know that George W. Bush proposed a substantial expansion of Medicare benefits, Part D, which passed. (Incidentally, that has probably had positive effects outside the United States. By increasing the expenditure for drugs here, it probably incentivized American drug companies to spend more on research.)

    Without wanting to get into a fight over it, you do seem motivated as much by the desire to make a case on behalf of the Republican party as you are by the desire to inform.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,627
    thart said:

    From these figures support for the monarchy such as it is in the diverse under 50s is very luke warm and could evaporate quickly. And time will of course take care of the cap doffing over 65s. So for Republicans all to play for with their greatest asset King Charles on the throne

    And after Charles, then what?
  • thartthart Posts: 139
    RobD said:

    thart said:

    From these figures support for the monarchy such as it is in the diverse under 50s is very luke warm and could evaporate quickly. And time will of course take care of the cap doffing over 65s. So for Republicans all to play for with their greatest asset King Charles on the throne

    And after Charles, then what?
    Maybe time to move to a Presidential system
  • LeonLeon Posts: 63,422
    rcs1000 said:

    Jim_Miller said:

    NigelB said: "Since the Presidential elections are the biggest political betting events, I don't think there are all that many PB regulars unaware of the political battles over Obama's expansion of Medicaid, etc."

    Well, then, why don't you correct the mistaken comments I see so often here? (I didn't name individuals who were making those mistakes, because I think that -- usually -- hinders rational discussion.)

    And here, I suspect, are three things you didn't know about "ObamaCare", as it is often called:
    1. It included a tax on "Cadillac" plans, private plans that were too generous.
    2. It resulted in the closing of rural hospitals. (If you want more details, look for an article by Anemona Hartocollis in the NYT some years ago.
    3. After it had been in effect for some years, life expectancy in the United States fell, beginning in 2014. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_United_States#Life_expectancy

    Nor is it likely that you know that George W. Bush proposed a substantial expansion of Medicare benefits, Part D, which passed. (Incidentally, that has probably had positive effects outside the United States. By increasing the expenditure for drugs here, it probably incentivized American drug companies to spend more on research.)

    I think you are really quite mad if you think that the decline in life expectancy seen in the US post 2014 is due to Obamacare. (You would also need to explain why Massachusetts did not see a similar trend shifted forward a decade, given they were first with an Obamacare type system.)
    it’s the drugs. I have written about it

    After Covid : “the second greatest contributor to the decline in life expectancy is accidental injury, driven primarily by drug overdoses, which killed over 100,000 U.S. residents last year.” (CDC Report, 2022)

    US Life Expectancy is now 76. Which is mind boggling. It is now lower than Panama, Iran or Sri Lanka
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,627
    thart said:

    RobD said:

    thart said:

    From these figures support for the monarchy such as it is in the diverse under 50s is very luke warm and could evaporate quickly. And time will of course take care of the cap doffing over 65s. So for Republicans all to play for with their greatest asset King Charles on the throne

    And after Charles, then what?
    Maybe time to move to a Presidential system
    But the greatest asset to the republican cause will be gone?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 46,368
    I'd vote to scrap the Monarchy - a change from how I used to feel - but I don't expect such a vote anytime soon. There's no realistic path to it as far as I can see.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 5,560
    Still a plurality. And they'll grow up.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,791
    edited September 2022
    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Jim_Miller said:

    NigelB said: "Since the Presidential elections are the biggest political betting events, I don't think there are all that many PB regulars unaware of the political battles over Obama's expansion of Medicaid, etc."

    Well, then, why don't you correct the mistaken comments I see so often here? (I didn't name individuals who were making those mistakes, because I think that -- usually -- hinders rational discussion.)

    And here, I suspect, are three things you didn't know about "ObamaCare", as it is often called:
    1. It included a tax on "Cadillac" plans, private plans that were too generous.
    2. It resulted in the closing of rural hospitals. (If you want more details, look for an article by Anemona Hartocollis in the NYT some years ago.
    3. After it had been in effect for some years, life expectancy in the United States fell, beginning in 2014. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_United_States#Life_expectancy

    Nor is it likely that you know that George W. Bush proposed a substantial expansion of Medicare benefits, Part D, which passed. (Incidentally, that has probably had positive effects outside the United States. By increasing the expenditure for drugs here, it probably incentivized American drug companies to spend more on research.)

    I think you are really quite mad if you think that the decline in life expectancy seen in the US post 2014 is due to Obamacare. (You would also need to explain why Massachusetts did not see a similar trend shifted forward a decade, given they were first with an Obamacare type system.)
    it’s the drugs. I have written about it

    After Covid : “the second greatest contributor to the decline in life expectancy is accidental injury, driven primarily by drug overdoses, which killed over 100,000 U.S. residents last year.” (CDC Report, 2022)

    US Life Expectancy is now 76. Which is mind boggling. It is now lower than Panama, Iran or Sri Lanka
    Yes: Perdue Pharma (and others) have a lot to answer for.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,791
    RobD said:

    thart said:

    From these figures support for the monarchy such as it is in the diverse under 50s is very luke warm and could evaporate quickly. And time will of course take care of the cap doffing over 65s. So for Republicans all to play for with their greatest asset King Charles on the throne

    And after Charles, then what?
    William.

    Come on @RobD, the monarchical system isn't that hard to understand.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,654
    SandraMc said:

    I have just returned from Guernsey and in St Peters Port I heard a man in his 20s say to his friend that he had witnessed at the weekend the official proclamation announcing King Charles III. He said that half of him felt that this was an archiac and ridiculous ritual but the other half felt that he was witnessing history and a sense of awe.

    That’s Guernsey for you - parliamentarian bastards that they were!

    Fun fact, Charles II was proclaimed King in Jersey 11 years before he was in England.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 79,566
    To what extent is the tardiness of Germany’s supply of weapons to Ukraine related to manufacturing constraints, and limited existing stocks ?
    (They’ve certainly provided substantial financial aid, for example.)

    https://twitter.com/Hromadske/status/1571110300484792321
    The German government has approved Ukraine's request for more RCH-155 howitzers. However, the manufacturer will be able to produce them for Ukraine no earlier than the first half of 2025, reports Welt am Sonntag citing
    @MelnykAndrij and documents received from the manufacturer…

    It’s clearly not an insignificant problem in general.
    Poland, for example, just ordered several billion dollars worth of a S Korean F16 derivative light fighter (with inferior performance), because they aren’t prepared to wait years for deliveries of new F16s from the US, and the Korean jet (the FA-50) is available very quickly.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 19,583
    Driver said:

    Still a plurality. And they'll grow up.

    False logic. There should be no Tory voters by now and yet… Peoples views change with age and place in society. Unless you are Jeremy Corbyn.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 15,065
    Leon said:

    Occurs to me the great counter example to all the Abolitions is the greatest monarchy of all: Rome

    From Republic to Empire, and it was as an Empire that it reached its remarkable zenith

    It occurs to me that the history of Rome from late republic to early empire is the best possible argument for avoiding the entire process and sticking with the ambiguities of constitutional democratic monarchy which have served us well since 1688/9.

    The Rome thing is a fantastic story - the best there is almost, with a cast of characters that make Trump, Boris, Putin and co look like lightweights. Great to read, terrible to live through.

  • LeonLeon Posts: 63,422
    IshmaelZ said:

    rcs1000 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    With all due respect, this is ludicrous

    Any political institution in the world would kill every kitten in the catteries of Kilburn to get these figures of support

    I thought the young weren’t meant to care about this old crone yet 63% of them report being at least a little upset

    in the age range 25-49 53% support the monarchy and only 27% oppose - so that’s 2 to 1. And the figures get, of course, much higher as you go up the ages

    Unless Charles actually stabs his own children with one of those leaky pens we are decades from the monarchy being remotely imperilled

    Quite so. *Peaceful* and non regicidal transitions ex monarchy are rare as hens' teeth - see Athens, Rome, France, England, Russia. Take away the motive for regicide by preventing kings from imposing ship money and salt taxes, and where's thee incentive for that? What examples are there for peaceful monarchy - republic transitions, not counting where it's a by product of dropping out of an empire?
    Bulgaria 1946
    Greece 1924
    Greece 1973
    Iceland 1944
    Italy 1946
    Communist coup
    had to do a runner
    had to do a runner
    Side effect of independence
    Borderline pass, but relevant events over previous 6 years

    my point stands: losing the monarchy will be a side effect of something else. We won't just think Let's have a monarchyref like we think Let's have an indyref.
    Yes, your point is sound. It’s not enough to point to lukewarm support (which the stats don’t show anyway), it’s not even enough to show majority public opposition to the monarchy (which has not happened in my lifetime). There has to be a sensible political route to a referendum on Abolition, proposed by a political party which then wins

    How the F does that happen in our system? iIf the vile Andrew and the sad case of Meghan aren’t enough to provoke republican unrest, then what will do it? And what party is going to expend ENORMOUS political capital to get it done, a traumatic change which will cost billions, and for what? if Abolition wins, we get a ceremonial president, who will be the most boring, inoffensive person anyone can imagine, so we will have President Ed Sheeran

    Great! We can have Lego House as our new anthem (we would have to change the anthem, along with much else). But….. unlikely to happen
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,176
    Leon said:

    Occurs to me the great counter example to all the Abolitions is the greatest monarchy of all: Rome

    From Republic to Empire, and it was as an Empire that it reached its remarkable zenith

    Not really ones for proper heriditary principle though. Or smooth transitions for much of it.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 63,422
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Jim_Miller said:

    NigelB said: "Since the Presidential elections are the biggest political betting events, I don't think there are all that many PB regulars unaware of the political battles over Obama's expansion of Medicaid, etc."

    Well, then, why don't you correct the mistaken comments I see so often here? (I didn't name individuals who were making those mistakes, because I think that -- usually -- hinders rational discussion.)

    And here, I suspect, are three things you didn't know about "ObamaCare", as it is often called:
    1. It included a tax on "Cadillac" plans, private plans that were too generous.
    2. It resulted in the closing of rural hospitals. (If you want more details, look for an article by Anemona Hartocollis in the NYT some years ago.
    3. After it had been in effect for some years, life expectancy in the United States fell, beginning in 2014. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_United_States#Life_expectancy

    Nor is it likely that you know that George W. Bush proposed a substantial expansion of Medicare benefits, Part D, which passed. (Incidentally, that has probably had positive effects outside the United States. By increasing the expenditure for drugs here, it probably incentivized American drug companies to spend more on research.)

    I think you are really quite mad if you think that the decline in life expectancy seen in the US post 2014 is due to Obamacare. (You would also need to explain why Massachusetts did not see a similar trend shifted forward a decade, given they were first with an Obamacare type system.)
    it’s the drugs. I have written about it

    After Covid : “the second greatest contributor to the decline in life expectancy is accidental injury, driven primarily by drug overdoses, which killed over 100,000 U.S. residents last year.” (CDC Report, 2022)

    US Life Expectancy is now 76. Which is mind boggling. It is now lower than Panama, Iran or Sri Lanka
    Yes: Perdue Pharma (and others) have a lot to answer for.
    It’s not OxyContin any more tho, it is the evil Fentanyl
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,089
    RobD said:

    thart said:

    From these figures support for the monarchy such as it is in the diverse under 50s is very luke warm and could evaporate quickly. And time will of course take care of the cap doffing over 65s. So for Republicans all to play for with their greatest asset King Charles on the throne

    And after Charles, then what?
    William?
  • thartthart Posts: 139
    turbotubbs said:

    Driver said:

    Still a plurality. And they'll grow up.

    False logic. There should be no Tory voters by now and yet… Peoples views change with age and place in society. Unless you are Jeremy Corbyn.
    Well a couple of points.
    Tories are less popular with the young than ever its the disproportionate support of the old even compared with 10 years ago that is keeping them in power
    Back in the 80s and 90s there were plenty of old labour voters..not so much now

    So the Tories have pushed things as far as they can now. The more they appease their old core vote the more disgust the young feel with them and the sharper the backlash
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,176
    algarkirk said:

    Leon said:

    Occurs to me the great counter example to all the Abolitions is the greatest monarchy of all: Rome

    From Republic to Empire, and it was as an Empire that it reached its remarkable zenith

    It occurs to me that the history of Rome from late republic to early empire is the best possible argument for avoiding the entire process and sticking with the ambiguities of constitutional democratic monarchy which have served us well since 1688/9.

    The Rome thing is a fantastic story - the best there is almost, with a cast of characters that make Trump, Boris, Putin and co look like lightweights. Great to read, terrible to live through.

    I recently read through Steve Saylor's Rome Trilogy, following the path of families from 1000 BC to the reign of Constantine. Very fun, and plenty of the crazy stuff in the story is likely true (inasmuch as any historical story can be).
  • thartthart Posts: 139
    You could make the argument that does democracy even work properly when a large group of people many who have been out of the workforce for 20 to 30 years consistently swing elections
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,176
    thart said:

    RobD said:

    thart said:

    From these figures support for the monarchy such as it is in the diverse under 50s is very luke warm and could evaporate quickly. And time will of course take care of the cap doffing over 65s. So for Republicans all to play for with their greatest asset King Charles on the throne

    And after Charles, then what?
    Maybe time to move to a Presidential system
    Nah, heriditary stadtholder.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,089
    edited September 2022
    Driver said:

    Still a plurality. And they'll grow up.

    Yep. There’s supposed to be huge majorities for rejoining the EU and Scottish independence by now, as everyone said at the time that the oldies will die off, and today’s joung people will be the only ones to not chance their minds as they grow older. That’s not how it worked out, because people still do change their minds with age.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,791
    Nigelb said:

    To what extent is the tardiness of Germany’s supply of weapons to Ukraine related to manufacturing constraints, and limited existing stocks ?
    (They’ve certainly provided substantial financial aid, for example.)

    https://twitter.com/Hromadske/status/1571110300484792321
    The German government has approved Ukraine's request for more RCH-155 howitzers. However, the manufacturer will be able to produce them for Ukraine no earlier than the first half of 2025, reports Welt am Sonntag citing
    @MelnykAndrij and documents received from the manufacturer…

    It’s clearly not an insignificant problem in general.
    Poland, for example, just ordered several billion dollars worth of a S Korean F16 derivative light fighter (with inferior performance), because they aren’t prepared to wait years for deliveries of new F16s from the US, and the Korean jet (the FA-50) is available very quickly.

    Germany's armed forces were/are in a shockingly poor state. When the German government was shopping around for things to cut in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis and the Eurozone crisis, Merkel saw military spending and thought it was an easy place to make reductions.

    From an NYTimes article at the start of the year:

    There is a shortage of everything from protective vests to thermal underwear. Radio equipment is 30 years out of date. Only one in three warships is ready to deploy — so few that the navy worries it cannot meet all its international commitments.

    Even in Rukla, the flagship German NATO mission which has relatively few complaints when it comes to resources, the general scarcity has been felt.

    Some of the armored vehicles are five decades old. During international exercises in Lithuania, their equipment routinely made the German units “the weakest link in the chain,” soldiers reported to the parliamentary commissioner for the armed forces on their return from tours in Rukla.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,627
    thart said:

    You could make the argument that does democracy even work properly when a large group of people many who have been out of the workforce for 20 to 30 years consistently swing elections

    Should the unemployed be denied the vote? I thought the franchise was universal.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,791
    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Jim_Miller said:

    NigelB said: "Since the Presidential elections are the biggest political betting events, I don't think there are all that many PB regulars unaware of the political battles over Obama's expansion of Medicaid, etc."

    Well, then, why don't you correct the mistaken comments I see so often here? (I didn't name individuals who were making those mistakes, because I think that -- usually -- hinders rational discussion.)

    And here, I suspect, are three things you didn't know about "ObamaCare", as it is often called:
    1. It included a tax on "Cadillac" plans, private plans that were too generous.
    2. It resulted in the closing of rural hospitals. (If you want more details, look for an article by Anemona Hartocollis in the NYT some years ago.
    3. After it had been in effect for some years, life expectancy in the United States fell, beginning in 2014. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_United_States#Life_expectancy

    Nor is it likely that you know that George W. Bush proposed a substantial expansion of Medicare benefits, Part D, which passed. (Incidentally, that has probably had positive effects outside the United States. By increasing the expenditure for drugs here, it probably incentivized American drug companies to spend more on research.)

    I think you are really quite mad if you think that the decline in life expectancy seen in the US post 2014 is due to Obamacare. (You would also need to explain why Massachusetts did not see a similar trend shifted forward a decade, given they were first with an Obamacare type system.)
    it’s the drugs. I have written about it

    After Covid : “the second greatest contributor to the decline in life expectancy is accidental injury, driven primarily by drug overdoses, which killed over 100,000 U.S. residents last year.” (CDC Report, 2022)

    US Life Expectancy is now 76. Which is mind boggling. It is now lower than Panama, Iran or Sri Lanka
    Yes: Perdue Pharma (and others) have a lot to answer for.
    It’s not OxyContin any more tho, it is the evil Fentanyl
    People don't start with Fentanyl.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,176
    edited September 2022
    thart said:

    You could make the argument that does democracy even work properly when a large group of people many who have been out of the workforce for 20 to 30 years consistently swing elections

    Was democracy supposed to only represent the workforce? If not, then it is certainly frustrating how the elderly vote is so influential, but it is certainly not undemocratic. As to whether that works even if it is democratic, well, that's just a general argument about whether democracy works, which applies to matters other than old people getting more influence.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 63,422
    edited September 2022
    Sitting at the marble counter top of a brilliant tapas bar in Seville eating yet another superb lunch while guzzling cold Spanish white and arguing nonsense with PB is one of my new fave things ever, so thanks, guys. Sincerely

    What should I eat next?





  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,089
    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    To what extent is the tardiness of Germany’s supply of weapons to Ukraine related to manufacturing constraints, and limited existing stocks ?
    (They’ve certainly provided substantial financial aid, for example.)

    https://twitter.com/Hromadske/status/1571110300484792321
    The German government has approved Ukraine's request for more RCH-155 howitzers. However, the manufacturer will be able to produce them for Ukraine no earlier than the first half of 2025, reports Welt am Sonntag citing
    @MelnykAndrij and documents received from the manufacturer…

    It’s clearly not an insignificant problem in general.
    Poland, for example, just ordered several billion dollars worth of a S Korean F16 derivative light fighter (with inferior performance), because they aren’t prepared to wait years for deliveries of new F16s from the US, and the Korean jet (the FA-50) is available very quickly.

    Germany's armed forces were/are in a shockingly poor state. When the German government was shopping around for things to cut in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis and the Eurozone crisis, Merkel saw military spending and thought it was an easy place to make reductions.

    From an NYTimes article at the start of the year:

    There is a shortage of everything from protective vests to thermal underwear. Radio equipment is 30 years out of date. Only one in three warships is ready to deploy — so few that the navy worries it cannot meet all its international commitments.

    Even in Rukla, the flagship German NATO mission which has relatively few complaints when it comes to resources, the general scarcity has been felt.

    Some of the armored vehicles are five decades old. During international exercises in Lithuania, their equipment routinely made the German units “the weakest link in the chain,” soldiers reported to the parliamentary commissioner for the armed forces on their return from tours in Rukla.
    One of the few things about which Donald Trump was right. The larger nations of Europe need to up their game in defence, especially as the US focus moves away from NATO and towards China. The less said about the German attitude to arming Ukraine, the better.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 79,566
    edited September 2022
    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    To what extent is the tardiness of Germany’s supply of weapons to Ukraine related to manufacturing constraints, and limited existing stocks ?
    (They’ve certainly provided substantial financial aid, for example.)

    https://twitter.com/Hromadske/status/1571110300484792321
    The German government has approved Ukraine's request for more RCH-155 howitzers. However, the manufacturer will be able to produce them for Ukraine no earlier than the first half of 2025, reports Welt am Sonntag citing
    @MelnykAndrij and documents received from the manufacturer…

    It’s clearly not an insignificant problem in general.
    Poland, for example, just ordered several billion dollars worth of a S Korean F16 derivative light fighter (with inferior performance), because they aren’t prepared to wait years for deliveries of new F16s from the US, and the Korean jet (the FA-50) is available very quickly.

    Germany's armed forces were/are in a shockingly poor state. When the German government was shopping around for things to cut in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis and the Eurozone crisis, Merkel saw military spending and thought it was an easy place to make reductions.

    From an NYTimes article at the start of the year:

    There is a shortage of everything from protective vests to thermal underwear. Radio equipment is 30 years out of date. Only one in three warships is ready to deploy — so few that the navy worries it cannot meet all its international commitments.

    Even in Rukla, the flagship German NATO mission which has relatively few complaints when it comes to resources, the general scarcity has been felt.

    Some of the armored vehicles are five decades old. During international exercises in Lithuania, their equipment routinely made the German units “the weakest link in the chain,” soldiers reported to the parliamentary commissioner for the armed forces on their return from tours in Rukla.
    Indeed.
    But while they’re perhaps an extreme example, very similar comments could be made for most of Europe up until this year’s invasion.
    At least some of the reluctance to supply Ukraine with the more modern and potent weapons is that our own militaries are quite nervous about the effect on their own capabilities.

    Which is why Turkish and S Korean defence manufacturers are making out like bandits.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 5,560
    turbotubbs said:

    Driver said:

    Still a plurality. And they'll grow up.

    False logic. There should be no Tory voters by now and yet… Peoples views change with age and place in society. Unless you are Jeremy Corbyn.
    That is closer to agreeing with my point than disagreeing with it. I expect the "don't know"s to generally move to support as they get more experience of politicians.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,463
    thart said:

    You could make the argument that does democracy even work properly when a large group of people many who have been out of the workforce for 20 to 30 years consistently swing elections

    You can make that argument if you don't understand what universal suffrage means.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,290
    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    To what extent is the tardiness of Germany’s supply of weapons to Ukraine related to manufacturing constraints, and limited existing stocks ?
    (They’ve certainly provided substantial financial aid, for example.)

    https://twitter.com/Hromadske/status/1571110300484792321
    The German government has approved Ukraine's request for more RCH-155 howitzers. However, the manufacturer will be able to produce them for Ukraine no earlier than the first half of 2025, reports Welt am Sonntag citing
    @MelnykAndrij and documents received from the manufacturer…

    It’s clearly not an insignificant problem in general.
    Poland, for example, just ordered several billion dollars worth of a S Korean F16 derivative light fighter (with inferior performance), because they aren’t prepared to wait years for deliveries of new F16s from the US, and the Korean jet (the FA-50) is available very quickly.

    Germany's armed forces were/are in a shockingly poor state. When the German government was shopping around for things to cut in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis and the Eurozone crisis, Merkel saw military spending and thought it was an easy place to make reductions.

    From an NYTimes article at the start of the year:

    There is a shortage of everything from protective vests to thermal underwear. Radio equipment is 30 years out of date. Only one in three warships is ready to deploy — so few that the navy worries it cannot meet all its international commitments.

    Even in Rukla, the flagship German NATO mission which has relatively few complaints when it comes to resources, the general scarcity has been felt.

    Some of the armored vehicles are five decades old. During international exercises in Lithuania, their equipment routinely made the German units “the weakest link in the chain,” soldiers reported to the parliamentary commissioner for the armed forces on their return from tours in Rukla.
    Indeed.
    But while they’re perhaps an extreme example, very similar comments could be made for most of Europe up until this year’s invasion.
    At least some of the reluctance to supply Ukraine with the more modern and potent weapons is that our own militaries are quite nervous about the effect on their own capabilities.

    Which is why Turkish and S Korean defence manufacturers are making out like bandits.
    Indeed, I remember @Dura_Ace saying that our spare self propelled artillery is in such a poor state that it is undeployable.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,463
    rcs1000 said:

    Germany's armed forces were/are in a shockingly poor state. When the German government was shopping around for things to cut in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis and the Eurozone crisis, Merkel saw military spending and thought it was an easy place to make reductions.

    History won't be very kind to Merkel.

  • thartthart Posts: 139
    kle4 said:

    thart said:

    You could make the argument that does democracy even work properly when a large group of people many who have been out of the workforce for 20 to 30 years consistently swing elections

    Was democracy supposed to only represent the workforce? If not, then it is certainly frustrating how the elderly vote is so influential, but it is certainly not undemocratic. As to whether that works even if it is democratic, well, that's just a general argument about whether democracy works, which applies to matters other than old people getting more influence.
    Well we have never had democracies with such large elderly populations. Now a wise and informed elderly population is one thing but in the absence of that people vote their self interest. And as you become increasingly disconnected from the working world that becomes a problem
  • LeonLeon Posts: 63,422
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Jim_Miller said:

    NigelB said: "Since the Presidential elections are the biggest political betting events, I don't think there are all that many PB regulars unaware of the political battles over Obama's expansion of Medicaid, etc."

    Well, then, why don't you correct the mistaken comments I see so often here? (I didn't name individuals who were making those mistakes, because I think that -- usually -- hinders rational discussion.)

    And here, I suspect, are three things you didn't know about "ObamaCare", as it is often called:
    1. It included a tax on "Cadillac" plans, private plans that were too generous.
    2. It resulted in the closing of rural hospitals. (If you want more details, look for an article by Anemona Hartocollis in the NYT some years ago.
    3. After it had been in effect for some years, life expectancy in the United States fell, beginning in 2014. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_United_States#Life_expectancy

    Nor is it likely that you know that George W. Bush proposed a substantial expansion of Medicare benefits, Part D, which passed. (Incidentally, that has probably had positive effects outside the United States. By increasing the expenditure for drugs here, it probably incentivized American drug companies to spend more on research.)

    I think you are really quite mad if you think that the decline in life expectancy seen in the US post 2014 is due to Obamacare. (You would also need to explain why Massachusetts did not see a similar trend shifted forward a decade, given they were first with an Obamacare type system.)
    it’s the drugs. I have written about it

    After Covid : “the second greatest contributor to the decline in life expectancy is accidental injury, driven primarily by drug overdoses, which killed over 100,000 U.S. residents last year.” (CDC Report, 2022)

    US Life Expectancy is now 76. Which is mind boggling. It is now lower than Panama, Iran or Sri Lanka
    Yes: Perdue Pharma (and others) have a lot to answer for.
    It’s not OxyContin any more tho, it is the evil Fentanyl
    People don't start with Fentanyl.
    They don’t? I think they do?

    The dealers spike the “milder” drugs with Fentanyl as I understand, and Fentanyl is stronger, cheaper and Satanically addictive. And so the poor junkie is hooked

    But I am not an expert drug addict any more, thank God. Perhaps I am wrong
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 6,086
    A republic would require a combination of two things, a failure of monarchy and a loss of servility. The first is unpredictable. The second, if it happens, could probably be restored by conscription, and if necessary, starting a winnable war.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 79,566
    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    To what extent is the tardiness of Germany’s supply of weapons to Ukraine related to manufacturing constraints, and limited existing stocks ?
    (They’ve certainly provided substantial financial aid, for example.)

    https://twitter.com/Hromadske/status/1571110300484792321
    The German government has approved Ukraine's request for more RCH-155 howitzers. However, the manufacturer will be able to produce them for Ukraine no earlier than the first half of 2025, reports Welt am Sonntag citing
    @MelnykAndrij and documents received from the manufacturer…

    It’s clearly not an insignificant problem in general.
    Poland, for example, just ordered several billion dollars worth of a S Korean F16 derivative light fighter (with inferior performance), because they aren’t prepared to wait years for deliveries of new F16s from the US, and the Korean jet (the FA-50) is available very quickly.

    Germany's armed forces were/are in a shockingly poor state. When the German government was shopping around for things to cut in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis and the Eurozone crisis, Merkel saw military spending and thought it was an easy place to make reductions.

    From an NYTimes article at the start of the year:

    There is a shortage of everything from protective vests to thermal underwear. Radio equipment is 30 years out of date. Only one in three warships is ready to deploy — so few that the navy worries it cannot meet all its international commitments.

    Even in Rukla, the flagship German NATO mission which has relatively few complaints when it comes to resources, the general scarcity has been felt.

    Some of the armored vehicles are five decades old. During international exercises in Lithuania, their equipment routinely made the German units “the weakest link in the chain,” soldiers reported to the parliamentary commissioner for the armed forces on their return from tours in Rukla.
    One of the few things about which Donald Trump was right. The larger nations of Europe need to up their game in defence, especially as the US focus moves away from NATO and towards China. The less said about the German attitude to arming Ukraine, the better.
    On the contrary, it needs more discussion, not less.
    One of the more notable things about the debate in Germany (and opinions are quite sharply divided there, I think ?) is the opacity of the government’s position.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,627
    thart said:

    kle4 said:

    thart said:

    You could make the argument that does democracy even work properly when a large group of people many who have been out of the workforce for 20 to 30 years consistently swing elections

    Was democracy supposed to only represent the workforce? If not, then it is certainly frustrating how the elderly vote is so influential, but it is certainly not undemocratic. As to whether that works even if it is democratic, well, that's just a general argument about whether democracy works, which applies to matters other than old people getting more influence.
    Well we have never had democracies with such large elderly populations. Now a wise and informed elderly population is one thing but in the absence of that people vote their self interest. And as you become increasingly disconnected from the working world that becomes a problem
    It’s not the fault of elderly voters if they are more motivated to vote than younger people.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 63,422
    algarkirk said:

    Leon said:

    Occurs to me the great counter example to all the Abolitions is the greatest monarchy of all: Rome

    From Republic to Empire, and it was as an Empire that it reached its remarkable zenith

    It occurs to me that the history of Rome from late republic to early empire is the best possible argument for avoiding the entire process and sticking with the ambiguities of constitutional democratic monarchy which have served us well since 1688/9.

    The Rome thing is a fantastic story - the best there is almost, with a cast of characters that make Trump, Boris, Putin and co look like lightweights. Great to read, terrible to live through.

    Rome was only “terrible to live through” if you are comparing it to European societies post, say, 1500 or 1600 AD?

    The average Roman citizen probably had a better life than any human up to the Renaissance, even when the emperors were slaughtering each other

    Of course, slavery is the great blemish, but slavery was not unique to Rome
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 6,086
    kle4 said:

    thart said:

    You could make the argument that does democracy even work properly when a large group of people many who have been out of the workforce for 20 to 30 years consistently swing elections

    Was democracy supposed to only represent the workforce? If not, then it is certainly frustrating how the elderly vote is so influential, but it is certainly not undemocratic. As to whether that works even if it is democratic, well, that's just a general argument about whether democracy works, which applies to matters other than old people getting more influence.
    The elderly have the democratic right to have their arses wiped by the workforce, paid for by the workforce. After all, we didn’t get to this age without being selfish!
  • MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,793
    Nigelb said:

    MightyAlex said:

    Soon dear friends

    -dissolution of the monarchy
    -end of FPTP
    -re-entering the EU
    -unification of Ireland
    -federalisation

    All in the lifetime of HYUFD.

    You are most generous in wishing him so long a life.
    Or an excessive optimist.
    I wish him only the best. Fifty more years could tick the majority off!.

    (And I do believe federalisation is closer than most PBers think.)
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,922
    RobD said:

    thart said:

    kle4 said:

    thart said:

    You could make the argument that does democracy even work properly when a large group of people many who have been out of the workforce for 20 to 30 years consistently swing elections

    Was democracy supposed to only represent the workforce? If not, then it is certainly frustrating how the elderly vote is so influential, but it is certainly not undemocratic. As to whether that works even if it is democratic, well, that's just a general argument about whether democracy works, which applies to matters other than old people getting more influence.
    Well we have never had democracies with such large elderly populations. Now a wise and informed elderly population is one thing but in the absence of that people vote their self interest. And as you become increasingly disconnected from the working world that becomes a problem
    It’s not the fault of elderly voters if they are more motivated to vote than younger people.
    So can we have weekend voting to encourage more workers to vote? No? Quelle surprise.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 6,086
    Leon said:

    Sitting at the marble counter top of a brilliant tapas bar in Seville eating yet another superb lunch while guzzling cold Spanish white and arguing nonsense with PB is one of my new fave things ever, so thanks, guys. Sincerely

    What should I eat next?





    If there’s anything on the menu that you’ve never eaten before, that’s what I would try.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,791
    .
    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Jim_Miller said:

    NigelB said: "Since the Presidential elections are the biggest political betting events, I don't think there are all that many PB regulars unaware of the political battles over Obama's expansion of Medicaid, etc."

    Well, then, why don't you correct the mistaken comments I see so often here? (I didn't name individuals who were making those mistakes, because I think that -- usually -- hinders rational discussion.)

    And here, I suspect, are three things you didn't know about "ObamaCare", as it is often called:
    1. It included a tax on "Cadillac" plans, private plans that were too generous.
    2. It resulted in the closing of rural hospitals. (If you want more details, look for an article by Anemona Hartocollis in the NYT some years ago.
    3. After it had been in effect for some years, life expectancy in the United States fell, beginning in 2014. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_United_States#Life_expectancy

    Nor is it likely that you know that George W. Bush proposed a substantial expansion of Medicare benefits, Part D, which passed. (Incidentally, that has probably had positive effects outside the United States. By increasing the expenditure for drugs here, it probably incentivized American drug companies to spend more on research.)

    I think you are really quite mad if you think that the decline in life expectancy seen in the US post 2014 is due to Obamacare. (You would also need to explain why Massachusetts did not see a similar trend shifted forward a decade, given they were first with an Obamacare type system.)
    it’s the drugs. I have written about it

    After Covid : “the second greatest contributor to the decline in life expectancy is accidental injury, driven primarily by drug overdoses, which killed over 100,000 U.S. residents last year.” (CDC Report, 2022)

    US Life Expectancy is now 76. Which is mind boggling. It is now lower than Panama, Iran or Sri Lanka
    Yes: Perdue Pharma (and others) have a lot to answer for.
    It’s not OxyContin any more tho, it is the evil Fentanyl
    People don't start with Fentanyl.
    They don’t? I think they do?

    The dealers spike the “milder” drugs with Fentanyl as I understand, and Fentanyl is stronger, cheaper and Satanically addictive. And so the poor junkie is hooked

    But I am not an expert drug addict any more, thank God. Perhaps I am wrong
    Most people, these days, who end up as opiate addicts get there via the medical profession.

    Very few are at a party, and there's a guy with a little bit of brown and a lighter, and a bit of silver foil.

    People get prescribed opiates in the US far too easily. (I have some Tramadol I should never have been given.) And they find the effects very pleasant, and so they tell the doctor that the pain really hasn't gone away...
  • LeonLeon Posts: 63,422
    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    To what extent is the tardiness of Germany’s supply of weapons to Ukraine related to manufacturing constraints, and limited existing stocks ?
    (They’ve certainly provided substantial financial aid, for example.)

    https://twitter.com/Hromadske/status/1571110300484792321
    The German government has approved Ukraine's request for more RCH-155 howitzers. However, the manufacturer will be able to produce them for Ukraine no earlier than the first half of 2025, reports Welt am Sonntag citing
    @MelnykAndrij and documents received from the manufacturer…

    It’s clearly not an insignificant problem in general.
    Poland, for example, just ordered several billion dollars worth of a S Korean F16 derivative light fighter (with inferior performance), because they aren’t prepared to wait years for deliveries of new F16s from the US, and the Korean jet (the FA-50) is available very quickly.

    Germany's armed forces were/are in a shockingly poor state. When the German government was shopping around for things to cut in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis and the Eurozone crisis, Merkel saw military spending and thought it was an easy place to make reductions.

    From an NYTimes article at the start of the year:

    There is a shortage of everything from protective vests to thermal underwear. Radio equipment is 30 years out of date. Only one in three warships is ready to deploy — so few that the navy worries it cannot meet all its international commitments.

    Even in Rukla, the flagship German NATO mission which has relatively few complaints when it comes to resources, the general scarcity has been felt.

    Some of the armored vehicles are five decades old. During international exercises in Lithuania, their equipment routinely made the German units “the weakest link in the chain,” soldiers reported to the parliamentary commissioner for the armed forces on their return from tours in Rukla.
    Indeed.
    But while they’re perhaps an extreme example, very similar comments could be made for most of Europe up until this year’s invasion.
    At least some of the reluctance to supply Ukraine with the more modern and potent weapons is that our own militaries are quite nervous about the effect on their own capabilities.

    Which is why Turkish and S Korean defence manufacturers are making out like bandits.
    Indeed, I remember @Dura_Ace saying that our spare self propelled artillery is in such a poor state that it is undeployable.
    Dear old @Dura_Ace told us that the NLAWS were useless rubbish and that the Ukrainians were doomed

    Hmmm
  • MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,793
    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Jim_Miller said:

    NigelB said: "Since the Presidential elections are the biggest political betting events, I don't think there are all that many PB regulars unaware of the political battles over Obama's expansion of Medicaid, etc."

    Well, then, why don't you correct the mistaken comments I see so often here? (I didn't name individuals who were making those mistakes, because I think that -- usually -- hinders rational discussion.)

    And here, I suspect, are three things you didn't know about "ObamaCare", as it is often called:
    1. It included a tax on "Cadillac" plans, private plans that were too generous.
    2. It resulted in the closing of rural hospitals. (If you want more details, look for an article by Anemona Hartocollis in the NYT some years ago.
    3. After it had been in effect for some years, life expectancy in the United States fell, beginning in 2014. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_United_States#Life_expectancy

    Nor is it likely that you know that George W. Bush proposed a substantial expansion of Medicare benefits, Part D, which passed. (Incidentally, that has probably had positive effects outside the United States. By increasing the expenditure for drugs here, it probably incentivized American drug companies to spend more on research.)

    I think you are really quite mad if you think that the decline in life expectancy seen in the US post 2014 is due to Obamacare. (You would also need to explain why Massachusetts did not see a similar trend shifted forward a decade, given they were first with an Obamacare type system.)
    it’s the drugs. I have written about it

    After Covid : “the second greatest contributor to the decline in life expectancy is accidental injury, driven primarily by drug overdoses, which killed over 100,000 U.S. residents last year.” (CDC Report, 2022)

    US Life Expectancy is now 76. Which is mind boggling. It is now lower than Panama, Iran or Sri Lanka
    Shit life syndrome seems to be the medical diagnoses.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,791
    .
    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    To what extent is the tardiness of Germany’s supply of weapons to Ukraine related to manufacturing constraints, and limited existing stocks ?
    (They’ve certainly provided substantial financial aid, for example.)

    https://twitter.com/Hromadske/status/1571110300484792321
    The German government has approved Ukraine's request for more RCH-155 howitzers. However, the manufacturer will be able to produce them for Ukraine no earlier than the first half of 2025, reports Welt am Sonntag citing
    @MelnykAndrij and documents received from the manufacturer…

    It’s clearly not an insignificant problem in general.
    Poland, for example, just ordered several billion dollars worth of a S Korean F16 derivative light fighter (with inferior performance), because they aren’t prepared to wait years for deliveries of new F16s from the US, and the Korean jet (the FA-50) is available very quickly.

    Germany's armed forces were/are in a shockingly poor state. When the German government was shopping around for things to cut in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis and the Eurozone crisis, Merkel saw military spending and thought it was an easy place to make reductions.

    From an NYTimes article at the start of the year:

    There is a shortage of everything from protective vests to thermal underwear. Radio equipment is 30 years out of date. Only one in three warships is ready to deploy — so few that the navy worries it cannot meet all its international commitments.

    Even in Rukla, the flagship German NATO mission which has relatively few complaints when it comes to resources, the general scarcity has been felt.

    Some of the armored vehicles are five decades old. During international exercises in Lithuania, their equipment routinely made the German units “the weakest link in the chain,” soldiers reported to the parliamentary commissioner for the armed forces on their return from tours in Rukla.
    One of the few things about which Donald Trump was right. The larger nations of Europe need to up their game in defence, especially as the US focus moves away from NATO and towards China. The less said about the German attitude to arming Ukraine, the better.
    Pretty much all the European nations - big or small - need to spend more money on defence. And the good news is that they are doing so.

    It is worth remembering, though, that Trump didn't actually want the Germans to spend more money on defence: he wanted the Germans to cut the US a cheque.
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