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Blow for Truss in first voting poll as PM – politicalbetting.com
Blow for Truss in first voting poll as PM – politicalbetting.com
The Times is reporting a new YouGov poll where all the fieldwork took place after she became PM. The numbers are not encouraging for the new leader and according to the report LAB is 15% ahead.
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The disappointing thing for the Tories is that getting rid of the Oaf was meant to boost the brand, but they might have to accept that he has in fact permanently crippled the brand. He was Gerald Ratner on steroids, and a new captain isn’t going to save the sinking ship. But the band plays on…
https://twitter.com/LivFaustDieJung/status/1567643689597411331
Reckons the Ukraine offensive may need to pause soon, but they have clearly demonstrated it’s possible to break the stalemate.
In the next two years, the latest date for the general election is end 2024, the Truss led Conservative Party will either collapse the economy or fail to deliver, deliver, deliver.
A great effort from the Ukranian defenders.
However the poll during the campaign that showed the more people see her the less they like her should be concerning to her team. How do,they mitigate that ?
https://www.racingpost.com/news/latest/supporter-of-gambling-reform-michelle-donelan-appointed-as-new-culture-secretary/577564
They both did well, she did better than expected and they had an actual debate of ideas which was refreshing.
They brook no compromise.
They have pretty much done FOBTs now, they will move on to other things.
Mind you, I don't think even Farage would be appreciably worse than the likes of Drakeford, Gethin and James.
But that's preferable to one side playing cricket and the other Calvinball.
The Tories are also still well ahead of RefUK
I should add, exactly what to do about them in their current state isn't easy to work out. Certainly anything to improve them would not be cheap.
However, her energy package is only being announced today so still time to get some poll movement in her favour
In those long two months I've seen breathless excitement from one or two about Truss but for the most part, depressed resignation and downright hostility. I was astonished in a town yesterday to hear middle class people sounding off about her in random conversations with strangers. I have never encountered that before in my life. The anger is palpable. Visceral.
She will be a disaster and I fear for Mike's wager.
The tories will be out of office for either 10 years or 20 years, the latter if they seriously think Badenoch is their salvation.
I won't spend much time on here I doubt and will post only occasionally - certainly not the 3000 posts one well known contributor has made in my absence
Message ends.
Have a nice day
xx
Generally after a long period of power you would then expect the Tories to face a long period of opposition as Labour did after 2010 or the Tories did after 1997. However if we go back to high inflation and strikes like the 1970s all bets are off, we changed government 3 times that decade
It was a relief to see a serious question time performance. Johnsons bombastic buffoonery had made it unwatchable, and I shall trouser my tax cut quite happily. I think her policies are idiotic and likely to leave the country in much worse position, but have to look out for my own interest.
If Truss's plan is to shrink government to a size where it will fit in her head (and the smallness of her new No 10 operation points that way) it's not going to work well. You can't do a binary "on the agenda / off the agenda" thing, even if it makes things easier to analyse.
I find it mildly amusing that it seems polls have not shown a bounce for Truss when she has only been PM for less than 48 hours
She did do well yesterday and today is extremely important, but it will take time and not just weeks for the government to show progress and of course her refusal to join the chorus of demands for a windfall tax may well be a negative, while being the right thing to do to get the producers investing in the North Sea and at last a change in the narrative to a pro business government
I would be concerned if she is polling like this this time next year, but everything pivots around Russia and the outcome of the war
If Putin and Russia suddenly fold for any reason then things could change overnight, or as an analyst said last night this could go on for a decade or more at which time we will all be penniless
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10777741/Boris-told-pensioner-rides-bus-day-warm-says-gave-free-pass.html
Having people keep more of their own income when they work improves the realm by itself and reduces the deadweight welfare loss on the economy that taxation causes so there's a huge difference between the two.
It's the die is cast (singular of dice)
It is quite possible there will be no £400 handout for 2023/4 so then it would go up.
https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1567471099083882496?s=20&t=ubNuk4jDmotHuKNwQzgx2g
What we've heard this morning (though without details) on the energy policy for this winter's crisis actually sounds as though it might be quite sensible.
I don't expect to be voting for her, but she could well be an improvement on Boris.
Certainly less irritating to listen to.
Even if Truss gets a positive bounce from today's announcement (and a windfall tax increase/extension, even if it were symbolic, would be part of that), it will deflate as the winter grinds on.
Sterling up a cent against the US$ too.
North Korea’s parliament said it will turn the country into a “beautiful and civilised socialist fairyland,” state media reported. The North Korean Supreme People’s Assembly adopted laws on landscaping and rural development that it said will promote “a radical turn in the rural community and its policy on landscaping to achieve a rapid development of the Korean-style socialist rural community and spruce up the country into a beautiful and civilised socialist fairyland”. External monitors have warned of hardships in the country, including severe food shortages.
My concern is that Truss knew this for the last 3 months, yet told the electorate she was campaigning to win over the direct opposite of what she ended up doing - massive state handouts funded by debt. How am I supposed to trust the Truss in 24?
The taxation side, both no additional taxes on energy extractors and the general corporation tax cut are weird and poor choices.
Truss has been a leading Western advocate for supporting Ukraine and we should expect that to rightly continue, which is why the Russians absolutely hate her. If she does her bit to help to ensure NATO etc support for Ukraine continues and then Russia and its regime falls leading to a reversal of these price hikes etc then we could be in a very different position in a couple of years time.
World’s Top Thinkers 2022: the results
From philosophers on gender to anti-poverty campaigners, here’s who readers voted for in our annual list of top thinkers
The votes are in and the people have spoken. From a list of 50 top thinkers we presented in the summer issue, our readers chose the philosopher Kathleen Stock as the winner—and by a significant margin. Stock’s 2021 book Material Girls argues that feminists should be worried that the biological differences between men and women, and thus the sex-based rights of women, are being eroded by “trans activist thinking.” Last year she resigned from the University of Sussex after protests by activists about her gender-critical position, turning her into an emblem for open inquiry and free speech.
https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/essays/worlds-top-thinkers-2022-the-results
Even a military defeat this year won't mean sanctions can drop though. That would require Putins downfall and a much more compliant new Russian regime.
Climate change is real but tackling climate change means reducing our domestic fossil fuel consumption over time, not extraction.
Consuming Qatari or Russian hydrocarbons instead of North Sea ones doesn't achieve a single thing for climate change.
I don’t think we can really assess the state of the polls until after todays announcement, though I do agree if she gets a small or no bounce at all we may have to start to appreciate the antipathy for the Tories is baked in and it will be very hard for them to come back. But events happen, so I still don’t see a Labour victory as a near inevitability like some do here.
On why telling Conservative members what they wanted to hear on taxes, Europe and Boris Johnson ensured that Liz Truss won but is now facing a host of problems.
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/conservatives/2022/09/liz-truss-cost-of-winning-david-gauke
Scrapping the monarchy. Oh, that was last week...
Are you sure ????
I'm shocked. Shocked, I tell you.
https://twitter.com/JosephPolitano/status/1567503162151501825?t=qMx9xVHNxPhlNj8v2lA6-Q&s=19
30 years of politicians dithering and when making decisions too often making the wrong ones have now come home to roost with a vengeance, just as she becomes PM.
Johnson leaves in disgrace, but he probably also left just in time.
It's bigger wishful thinking than DavidL's "cap might be too low".
The signs are that reality wins (regional pay, no energy handouts) which is a relief but messy.
What other measures do you advocate (I'll allow you one final post to help us all).
People misrepresenting her kept dropping out the bit about how support would be offered and concentrated solely on the just bit.
In light winds our needs are still covered; when the wind blows hard use it to create (net zero) hydrocarbons:
https://www.nsenergybusiness.com/features/hydrocarbon-renewable-energy-honeywell/
The UK is enormously rich in wind and tidal capacity.
The funny thing was that on precisely the same evidence on the website the hospital offered fertiility treatment for newborns, yet I didn't see any Wokefinders querying this,.
https://www.foxnews.com/us/dc-childrens-hospital-offered-gender-affirming-hysterectomies-kids-audio-deleted-webpage-reveal
https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/hr/children-s-national-faces-threats-over-transgender-youth-services.html
Edit this is the month in gas futures. As I have said before the degree of volitility is extraordinary:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/cxwdwz5d8gxt/natural-gas
via this morning's Playbook https://twitter.com/estwebber/status/1567773126833881088/photo/1
Presume there was never a FIT scheme in Italy?
Brexit was always led by libertarian ideologues, but needing the social conservative protectionist voters on board in order to get it through. Hence the potency of the £350 million per week to the NHS slogan.
We are at the point in the Brexit process where Boxer is loaded into the knackers van, and the next GE will be where the voters of Red Wall and rural shires look from pig to man, and man to pig, but can no longer see a difference.
These are the indicative estimates of Russia’s combat losses as of Sept. 8, according to the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1567764041090715648
The new price cap looks fine to me
But let’s see how much detail we do get today. And how long Liz Truss hangs around in the commons after statement.
The opposition do have the power to call it to a proper debate where government have to explain the detail, but I don’t think the opposition should, it would just be playing politics and not being constructive opposition if obvious the government isn’t ready yet.
In my opinion it’s effectively two plans not one, the difference between for households and for business - the complication for business is where so many have already gone on contract for much higher costs?