On the extremely optimistic assumption that this Mansion tax does not cost nearly as much to collect as it raises it might raise £1.2 bn. That is about 1% of the current NHS budget. And that is the big idea? Jeez.
The lie by which politicians of all stripes claim their policies are funded because they have found another source of tax a always annoys me. If this new tax does raise £1bn there is only £74bn to go before we start paying money back.
Lay Labour Majority at 2.88. I've tipped this before (it was OGH that drove the price below 3.00 in the first place), so it's not just a reaction to the speech [and, more importantly, its reception].
Labour barely get a majority on current polling, as bigjohnowls shows us. There is no way current polling will hold up until May.
Yep NOM looks nailed on.
September MEF (Murali Election Forecast) as follows (released now but dated 2nd September)
C 291 (-5) L 304 (+6) LD 26 (-2) UKIP 1 (+1) OTH 28
Some upward movement from Labour mainly due to the good ICM they had in August - this will probably unwind when the next MEF is released.
Murali
If those were the approximate seat estimates with a Spread Betting firm, I would be a buyer of LDs and UKIP.
The implication of course is that NOM is indeed the most likely outcome.
Agree Peter - the LDs do look low. UKIP is a real unknown which many predictive models can't seem to get a handle on...
From a betting viewpoint, UKIP are not much of a problem.
They're probably not capable of getting more than ten seats, but can be relied upon to win at least two (Carswell and Farage.) The tricky bit is estimating the drag they have on the other Parties. That's very difficult to gauge.
LDs should probably be getting somewhere around 35 seats, so again not a big impact on the total Lab & Con seats,
It's assessing the likely split between L & C that I find difficult. You can see why I find the NOM option beguiling?
Mr. L, you're incorrect. All the English tax, tobacco tax and loophole tax (as it were) raise will be ploughed into the NHS, as I understand it.
What about what Rachal Reeves said yesterday about running a surplus....if all this extra tax is going to spending, how are they going to get eliminate the deficit? Wider more sweeping cuts than the Coalition plans, sure the lefties like the sound of that.
any CFO of a company that was losing £122 billion a year (as the state is) and made out that all the problems would be solved by pulling in £1 billion would get the sack .
Labour details on mansion tax from BBC R5. Banded Overall average is £15,000 a year on 80,000 properties. (which is only £1.2bn at best) Some protection (? means test) to asset rich cash poor folk.
How are they going to value those 80000 properties every year?
Zoopla???
Re self-employed rights and pensions = as an IFA, i have no idea what they might be thinking on that one...... perhaps Labour thinks it's unfair that employees mandatorily get employer contributions under auto enrolment and harsh that the self-employed don't... which of course shows no understanding but otherwise what could it be?
Also serps/s2p used to hurt self-employed people but the state pension reforms from 2016 level that playing field too..
Answers welcome?
Possibly state would fund a self-employed person's paternity leave, but possibly they do already. The problem is a percentage of self-employed are really self-employed i.e. this is what they want to do and they are running a small business providing, say window cleaning service. But increasingly the self-employed are really working for other, bigger companies as a contractor. I think he's approaching it from the wrong end myself.
It's assessing the likely split between L & C that I find difficult. You can see why I find the NOM option beguiling?
I am wondering if the Tories for English votes for English laws isn;t just aimed at labour. I guess it could be a factor in lib/tory English battlegrounds
It's possible that Ed Milliband just has a different view of renewables to other people. For example, he might think in terms of:
Wind (indirect solar) Solar (direct solar) Coal and gas (stored solar)
Sure, coal and gas take millions of years to replenish, but - given a suitable time horizon - they are definitely renewable.
The text of the speech on the Labour Party website does not mention renewables. It says "... take the carbon out of our electricity by 2030."
It strikes me that, although a fifteen year pledge is nonsense in many respects, it does avoid him having to tell people that he intends to start building one or two dozen nuclear power stations during the next Parliament, which is the obvious implication.
Hinkley Point C is due to be in operation in 2023, but I think they're still doing preparatory works before construction begins. believably any nuclear reactors whose construction started before 2020 would be completed in time for Miliband's 2030 pledge.
Mr. Urquhart, they appear to be copying the SNP approach of using oil money for multiple purposes. They also haven't announced anywhere near enough policies to reduce the deficit.
Mr. 2014, it got a mention. He mocked Cameron for failing to stop Juncker. He forgot to mock Blair for 'building bridges' by throwing away half our rebate.
Labour details on mansion tax from BBC R5. Banded Overall average is £15,000 a year on 80,000 properties. (which is only £1.2bn at best) Some protection (? means test) to asset rich cash poor folk.
How are they going to value those 80000 properties every year?
Zoopla???
Re self-employed rights and pensions = as an IFA, i have no idea what they might be thinking on that one...... perhaps Labour thinks it's unfair that employees mandatorily get employer contributions under auto enrolment and harsh that the self-employed don't... which of course shows no understanding but otherwise what could it be?
Also serps/s2p used to hurt self-employed people but the state pension reforms from 2016 level that playing field too..
Answers welcome?
Possibly state would fund a self-employed person's paternity leave, but possibly they do already. The problem is a percentage of self-employed are really self-employed i.e. this is what they want to do and they are running a small business providing, say window cleaning service. But increasingly the self-employed are really working for other, bigger companies as a contractor. I think he's approaching it from the wrong end myself.
Labour created the conditions where it is so advantageous to be self employed as a contractor because of the massive rise in employers (and employees) NIC rates (so they could pretend not to raise income tax) . Labour created that bit of Tax 'avoidance' no doubt
It's assessing the likely split between L & C that I find difficult. You can see why I find the NOM option beguiling?
I am wondering if the Tories for English votes for English laws isn;t just aimed at labour. I guess it could be a factor in lib/tory English battlegrounds
Maybe, although it doesn't sound like an election-winning slogan to me.
It's assessing the likely split between L & C that I find difficult. You can see why I find the NOM option beguiling?
I am wondering if the Tories for English votes for English laws isn;t just aimed at labour. I guess it could be a factor in lib/tory English battlegrounds
Maybe, although it doesn't sound like an election-winning slogan to me.
To the average voter, EV4EL sounds like a political party whigeing about how unfair life is, and wouldn't it be better (for them) if the voting system was changed.
Perhaps they could get John Cleese to do a PPB about it.
(Remind me, how did the Alliance do from their whinging about how unfair the electoral system was?)
Cameron Caught on Camera Queen “Purred” at No Vote, “I Want to Sue” Polling Companies
“The definition of relief is being Prime Minister of the United Kingdom and calling the Queen and saying ‘It’s alright, it’s okay’. That was something. She purred down the line… But it should never have been that close, it wasn’t in the end. There was a time in the middle of the campaign when it felt… I’ve said I want to find these polling companies and I want to sue them for my stomach ulcers because of what they put me through. It was very nervous moments.”
It's possible that Ed Milliband just has a different view of renewables to other people. For example, he might think in terms of:
Wind (indirect solar) Solar (direct solar) Coal and gas (stored solar)
Sure, coal and gas take millions of years to replenish, but - given a suitable time horizon - they are definitely renewable.
The text of the speech on the Labour Party website does not mention renewables. It says "... take the carbon out of our electricity by 2030."
It strikes me that, although a fifteen year pledge is nonsense in many respects, it does avoid him having to tell people that he intends to start building one or two dozen nuclear power stations during the next Parliament, which is the obvious implication.
Hinkley Point C is due to be in operation in 2023, but I think they're still doing preparatory works before construction begins. believably any nuclear reactors whose construction started before 2020 would be completed in time for Miliband's 2030 pledge.
Right, but you'd have to have government guarantees for a very high price of energy to get that many nuclear plants built. Given that they are capping those prices for five years, there would then be sky rocketing costs to consumers for the next ten. Politically impossible year on year increases, so the government would end up paying. This would dwarf the minute savings from child benefit limits etc.
I met two students from a top university in London recently. One of them said something to me that really stuck with me. She said: “My generation is falling into a black hole.” Then she said about her parents’ generation: “They had it so good and now there’s nothing left for us.”
According to the Guardian, the student is one Beatrice Bazel, "a researcher on Victorian women’s bodies in art."
I don't suppose it has occurred to her that perhaps her parents' generation might have been a bit more practical-minded in their choices at her age?
America is bombing Syria on the pretext of bombing ISIS. Ramping up Saudi Arabia's training and arming of thousands more islamist militants (nice ones this time of course). Utterly desperate to unseat Assad no matter what the cost. Can anyone now deny that under its present psychotic leadership (of both 'right' and 'left'), America represents the biggest threat to world peace and world progress we have ever seen? Truly scary times.
I deny it. And I think it's an obviously stupid thing to say. Your anti-Americanism is clouding your whole interpretation of global events. The fact you think British stewardship of the world in the 19th century brought more prosperity than American stewardship of the world in the last 20th says it all.
To the average voter, EV4EL sounds like a political party whigeing about how unfair life is, and wouldn't it be better (for them) if the voting system was changed.
How does unaccountable Scots will decide on taxing English homes' sound??
I met two students from a top university in London recently. One of them said something to me that really stuck with me. She said: “My generation is falling into a black hole.” Then she said about her parents’ generation: “They had it so good and now there’s nothing left for us.”
According to the Guardian, the student is one Beatrice Bazel, "a researcher on Victorian women’s bodies in art."
I don't suppose it has occurred to her that perhaps her parent's generation might have been a bit more practical-minded in their choices at her age?
How dare you try to clamp down on the creativity of young people! Money isn't everything.
BTW, there is another fantastic and brave piece of journalism from the guys working for Vice News. After having individuals covering ISIS up close and personal and with the Peshmerga, now embedded with another group fighting right on the front line in Syria, and I mean right on the front line.
Search youtube for...
Controlling the Capital of the Syrian Revolution: Ghosts of Aleppo
@Richard_Nabavi "According to the Guardian, the student is one Beatrice Bazel, "a researcher on Victorian women’s bodies in art."
We are assuming here that it is "art" she is studying, which is quite likely, but is your point that she shouldn't study art, because it is unlikely to turn a profit?
Labour details on mansion tax from BBC R5. Banded Overall average is £15,000 a year on 80,000 properties. (which is only £1.2bn at best) Some protection (? means test) to asset rich cash poor folk.
How are they going to value those 80000 properties every year?
Zoopla???
Re self-employed rights and pensions = as an IFA, i have no idea what they might be thinking on that one...... perhaps Labour thinks it's unfair that employees mandatorily get employer contributions under auto enrolment and harsh that the self-employed don't... which of course shows no understanding but otherwise what could it be?
Also serps/s2p used to hurt self-employed people but the state pension reforms from 2016 level that playing field too..
Answers welcome?
Possibly state would fund a self-employed person's paternity leave, but possibly they do already. The problem is a percentage of self-employed are really self-employed i.e. this is what they want to do and they are running a small business providing, say window cleaning service. But increasingly the self-employed are really working for other, bigger companies as a contractor. I think he's approaching it from the wrong end myself.
Yep but we often work for a big company because we have skills they need now but won't need down the line. And yes, because of that, I am well paid when I am working but its very easy to end up not working for six months...
To the average voter, EV4EL sounds like a political party whigeing about how unfair life is, and wouldn't it be better (for them) if the voting system was changed.
How does 'Scots will decide on taxing English homes' sound??
Taffy: I care about the constitutional implications. I want EV4EL.
But I am in a minority. A minority that is massively over-represented on here, and which is playing solely into Ed Milliband's hands. If you think EV4EL is a vote winner for either the Tories or UKIP then you are living in cloud cuckoo land.
People care about their jobs, their homes, their families. They care more about whether they have decent battery life on their iPhone and whether there are 3G deadspots in their house than EV4EL.
@Richard_Nabavi "According to the Guardian, the student is one Beatrice Bazel, "a researcher on Victorian women’s bodies in art."
We are assuming here that it is "art" she is studying, which is quite likely, but is your point that she shouldn't study art, because it is unlikely to turn a profit?
No, my point is that she shouldn't moan about the choices she herself has made.
Putting up the price of fags to fund the NHS must be the most stupid idea since Bloody MAry thought burning people would kill off protestantism.
Put up the price of fags and fewer people smoke so income from the tax goes down. At the same time fewer people smoking means more people living longer and so more people needing long term, and very expensive, care (to say nothing about the increased pension costs). If Miliband wanted to provide extra money for the NHS from tobacco he would slash the tax on fags.
Has Ed been droning on about the NHS and jobs and the economy stuff again, instead of addressing the real concerns like English blah 4 English zzz?
Same old same old, spending other people's money faster than it will come in, figures not adding up, while not daring to address the elephant in the room, the continued issue of the deficit remaining stubbornly high and the need for further real cuts across the board (especially as he is spending what little new tax income before it has appeared).
@Richard_Nabavi "According to the Guardian, the student is one Beatrice Bazel, "a researcher on Victorian women’s bodies in art."
We are assuming here that it is "art" she is studying, which is quite likely, but is your point that she shouldn't study art, because it is unlikely to turn a profit?
or get her the kind of job she obviously feels entitled to
It's assessing the likely split between L & C that I find difficult. You can see why I find the NOM option beguiling?
I am wondering if the Tories for English votes for English laws isn;t just aimed at labour. I guess it could be a factor in lib/tory English battlegrounds
Maybe, although it doesn't sound like an election-winning slogan to me.
To the average voter, EV4EL sounds like a political party whigeing about how unfair life is, and wouldn't it be better (for them) if the voting system was changed.
Perhaps they could get John Cleese to do a PPB about it.
(Remind me, how did the Alliance do from their whinging about how unfair the electoral system was?)
It depends which argument grabs the voters interest. Either EV4EL will be a vote winner or an absolute vote destroy but we won't know until they start talking about it.
I watched the whole thing. My overall view is that it was utterly dreadful. Luke warm at best. Cliched use of the same tired anecdotes about meeting a guy who worked at a software firm who can't afford a house etc etc. The whole smacked as having been written by David Alexrod (obama's old guru) but without the 'hopey-changey' candidate it needs.
No new policy what-so-ever as far as I can work out, except perhaps idea there will be as many apprentices as students (really? - 800,000 a year??). Couple of reasonable jokes, which I now can't remember.
The most telling thing was the look on the faces of the shadow cabinet. Either they are all completely tired out from Scotland or real despair is seeping into their souls.
Putting up the price of fags to fund the NHS must be the most stupid idea since Bloody MAry thought burning people would kill off protestantism.
Put up the price of fags and fewer people smoke so income from the tax goes down. At the same time fewer people smoking means more people living longer and so more people needing long term, and very expensive, care (to say nothing about the increased pension costs). If Miliband wanted to provide extra money for the NHS from tobacco he would slash the tax on fags.
yes putting a tax on gym membership might be more logical
It's possible that Ed Milliband just has a different view of renewables to other people. For example, he might think in terms of:
Wind (indirect solar) Solar (direct solar) Coal and gas (stored solar)
Sure, coal and gas take millions of years to replenish, but - given a suitable time horizon - they are definitely renewable.
The text of the speech on the Labour Party website does not mention renewables. It says "... take the carbon out of our electricity by 2030."
It strikes me that, although a fifteen year pledge is nonsense in many respects, it does avoid him having to tell people that he intends to start building one or two dozen nuclear power stations during the next Parliament, which is the obvious implication.
Hinkley Point C is due to be in operation in 2023, but I think they're still doing preparatory works before construction begins. believably any nuclear reactors whose construction started before 2020 would be completed in time for Miliband's 2030 pledge.
Right, but you'd have to have government guarantees for a very high price of energy to get that many nuclear plants built. Given that they are capping those prices for five years, there would then be sky rocketing costs to consumers for the next ten. Politically impossible year on year increases, so the government would end up paying. This would dwarf the minute savings from child benefit limits etc.
As I understand it the strike price doesn't get paid until the electricity is generated. This is good from a politicians point of view for two reasons.
1. Miliband will not be Prime Minister when the bill has to be paid - remember Hinkley Point C isn't due to switch-on until 2023, so if Miliband is implying a large new generation of nuclear power plants, these won't be generating expensive electricity before 2027, or so.
2. If, for some reason, it all goes wrong and the plants don't get built the government doesn't have to pay for it. Unless they do something like guarantee the loans.
To the average voter, EV4EL sounds like a political party whigeing about how unfair life is, and wouldn't it be better (for them) if the voting system was changed.
How does unaccountable Scots will decide on taxing English homes' sound??
Is the mansion tax really just on English homes? That would be so monumentally stupid as a policy I can't believe they'd do it.
It's assessing the likely split between L & C that I find difficult. You can see why I find the NOM option beguiling?
I am wondering if the Tories for English votes for English laws isn;t just aimed at labour. I guess it could be a factor in lib/tory English battlegrounds
Maybe, although it doesn't sound like an election-winning slogan to me.
To the average voter, EV4EL sounds like a political party whigeing about how unfair life is, and wouldn't it be better (for them) if the voting system was changed.
Perhaps they could get John Cleese to do a PPB about it.
(Remind me, how did the Alliance do from their whinging about how unfair the electoral system was?)
It depends which argument grabs the voters interest. Either EV4EL will be a vote winner or an absolute vote destroy but we won't know until they start talking about it.
Just as (real) people didn't talk about PR in 1987, (real) people will not be talking about EV4EL.
And by the time the strategists in Smith Square realise this, Ed Milliband will be in Number 10.
To the average voter, EV4EL sounds like a political party whigeing about how unfair life is, and wouldn't it be better (for them) if the voting system was changed.
How does unaccountable Scots will decide on taxing English homes' sound??
Is the mansion tax really just on English homes? That would be so monumentally stupid as a policy I can't believe they'd do it.
It's on all homes. However, I'd estimate (and this is just top of the head, but I very much doubt I'm wrong), that 99.9% of homes above 2m in value are in England.
Not sure what that actually means – can anyone else elaborate…?
It's not my area (Neil?) but don't employed and self-employed have different pension treatments (at least until the Coalition's reforms come in).
The self-employed are already significantly subsidised through the the national insurance system. The Coalition's state pension / national insurance reforms will significantly increase that subsidy. I have no idea what he was talking about (didnt see the speech - have only seen that still!) but struggling to see how it relates to pensions so presuming it must be something else?
Mr. L, you're incorrect. All the English tax, tobacco tax and loophole tax (as it were) raise will be ploughed into the NHS, as I understand it.
So what is the total? Is it enough to get the deficit down to £70bn?
There is no more money. Additional taxes also slow down economic growth with negative consequences for other tax takes, in this case SDLT being one obvious candidate.
Anyone serious about running this country would be focussed on getting more from less.
Putting up the price of fags to fund the NHS must be the most stupid idea since Bloody MAry thought burning people would kill off protestantism.
Put up the price of fags and fewer people smoke so income from the tax goes down. At the same time fewer people smoking means more people living longer and so more people needing long term, and very expensive, care (to say nothing about the increased pension costs). If Miliband wanted to provide extra money for the NHS from tobacco he would slash the tax on fags.
That should cover about 25 or so of the first 100 posts!
So having covered the first n posts for large values of n - what shall we talk about? When's the Green conference Neil, and is Caroline Lucas or Natalie Bennett giving the final rousing speech?
You mean you MISSSED it?!
Well that's what you get for holding a conference in Birmingham.
To the average voter, EV4EL sounds like a political party whigeing about how unfair life is, and wouldn't it be better (for them) if the voting system was changed.
How does unaccountable Scots will decide on taxing English homes' sound??
Is the mansion tax really just on English homes? That would be so monumentally stupid as a policy I can't believe they'd do it.
It's on all homes. However, I'd estimate (and this is just top of the head, but I very much doubt I'm wrong), that 99.9% of homes above 2m in value are in England.
How can it be on all homes when by the time it comes into force it will be a devolved matter?
Cameron Caught on Camera Queen “Purred” at No Vote, “I Want to Sue” Polling Companies
“The definition of relief is being Prime Minister of the United Kingdom and calling the Queen and saying ‘It’s alright, it’s okay’. That was something. She purred down the line… But it should never have been that close, it wasn’t in the end. There was a time in the middle of the campaign when it felt… I’ve said I want to find these polling companies and I want to sue them for my stomach ulcers because of what they put me through. It was very nervous moments.”
Blimey - that's amazing! Fascinating to hear politicians doing what they think is private small talk. Probably a bit of bluster there on Cameron['s part, it's probably not true either about ringing the Queen or the polls giving him stomach ulcers, but he has said it and been caught on camera saying it.
And it says a lot about David Cameron. And his attitude to Scotland and the indy ref as a whole.
Cameron Caught on Camera Queen “Purred” at No Vote, “I Want to Sue” Polling Companies
“The definition of relief is being Prime Minister of the United Kingdom and calling the Queen and saying ‘It’s alright, it’s okay’. That was something. She purred down the line… But it should never have been that close, it wasn’t in the end. There was a time in the middle of the campaign when it felt… I’ve said I want to find these polling companies and I want to sue them for my stomach ulcers because of what they put me through. It was very nervous moments.”
Blimey - that's amazing! Fascinating to hear politicians doing what they think is private small talk. Probably a bit of bluster there on Cameron['s part, it's probably not true either about ringing the Queen or the polls giving him stomach ulcers, but he has said it and been caught on camera saying it.
And it says a lot about David Cameron. And his attitude to Scotland and the indy ref as a whole.
This is quite a big story isn't it?
I am not sure what's new that comes out of it. Cameron was relieved that Scotland voted no? Well that was his position before the vote wasn't it?
The big issue with the mansion tax (apart from the English element), is that it assumes that people don't change their behaviour. It seems quite likely that this will put off some of the big money foreign buyers. At the same time, many people in high value homes may choose to downsize or move out of the capital. Could well lead to falling house prices, which would then in turn bring down the tax raised.
To the average voter, EV4EL sounds like a political party whigeing about how unfair life is, and wouldn't it be better (for them) if the voting system was changed.
How does unaccountable Scots will decide on taxing English homes' sound??
Is the mansion tax really just on English homes? That would be so monumentally stupid as a policy I can't believe they'd do it.
It's on all homes. However, I'd estimate (and this is just top of the head, but I very much doubt I'm wrong), that 99.9% of homes above 2m in value are in England.
How can it be on all homes when by the time it comes into force it will be a devolved matter?
Only a minority of tax policy is devolved to Scotland.
For example, corporation tax and VAT are central. Why do you think the mansion tax (which will affect perhaps 50 homes in the whole of Scotland) would not be central.
The self-employed are already significantly subsidised through the the national insurance system. The Coalition's state pension / national insurance reforms will significantly increase that subsidy. I have no idea what he was talking about (didnt see the speech - have only seen that still!) but struggling to see how it relates to pensions so presuming it must be something else?
This is what he said:
To the growing army of our self-employed, five million working people so often the most entrepreneurial, go-getting people in our country -- they don’t want special treatment, but they do deserve a fair shot. Two thirds have no pension. Because of the jobs they do, one in five is stopped from getting a mortgage. It is time to end this modern, 21st century discrimination. The next Labour government will ensure there are equal rights for the self-employed.
No, I've no idea either. Is he proposing a compulsory pay cut for the self-employed?
Mr. L, I believe the 1% benefit rise cap will save us £200m or so.
Incidentally, on his efforts to speak about the English, was it me, or were all his examples from very recent history? Nothing about Alfred, or Edward III?
16 year olds are still doing their GCSEs and learning about life. They are barely out of their teeny tantrum stage. They are also very susceptible to their peers - witness the report of a class of 16 year olds voting Yes because the clever/cool guy in the class suggested it was the right thing to do. There is more of a case with 17 year olds who at least have made a decision whether to stay at school/college or go out to work and are that much maturer.
Edit Any views as to whether the Tories should simply oppose the extension of the franchise or go halfway house and give it to 17 year old only? Or back Ed?
Only a minority of tax policy is devolved to Scotland.
For example, corporation tax and VAT are central. Why do you think the mansion tax (which will affect perhaps 50 homes in the whole of Scotland) would not be central.
The self-employed are already significantly subsidised through the the national insurance system. The Coalition's state pension / national insurance reforms will significantly increase that subsidy. I have no idea what he was talking about (didnt see the speech - have only seen that still!) but struggling to see how it relates to pensions so presuming it must be something else?
This is what he said:
To the growing army of our self-employed, five million working people so often the most entrepreneurial, go-getting people in our country -- they don’t want special treatment, but they do deserve a fair shot. Two thirds have no pension. Because of the jobs they do, one in five is stopped from getting a mortgage. It is time to end this modern, 21st century discrimination. The next Labour government will ensure there are equal rights for the self-employed.
No, I've no idea either. Is he proposing a compulsory pay cut for the self-employed?
It just doesnt make sense. And in any case, as I said, the state pension system is already very generous to the self employed and is getting better for them. There was even a short report on the expanding subsidy to them in yesterday's FT.
16 year olds are still doing their GCSEs and learning about life. They are barely out of their teeny tantrum stage. They are also very susceptible to their peers - witness the report of a class of 16 year olds voting Yes because the clever/cool guy in the class suggested it was the right thing to do. There is more of a case with 17 year olds who at least have made a decision whether to stay at school/college or go out to work and are that much maturer.
Edit Any views as to whether the Tories should simply oppose the extension of the franchise or go halfway house and give it to 17 year old only? Or back Ed?
oppose it or maybe use it as a bargaining chip to get EV4EL through this parliament.
firstly, if it were UK-wide they would've said so. I believe they were questioned about this and prevaricated.
Secondly, if it's UK-wide, then the money will still be ploughed into 'our NHS' (ie in England). Taxing Scottish homes for English healthcare will not necessarily endear Miliband to the Scots, any more than having Scotsmen impose taxes on homes in England will endear him to the English.
Edited extra bit: ah, cheers, Mr. P, for the clarification this is indeed correct.
The big issue with the mansion tax (apart from the English element), is that it assumes that people don't change their behaviour. It seems quite likely that this will put off some of the big money foreign buyers. At the same time, many people in high value homes may choose to downsize or move out of the capital. Could well lead to falling house prices, which would then in turn bring down the tax raised.
There are all sorts of fiddles that come to mind immediately and I'm not a tax planner...wait until a professional starts having a proper look / think.
I think the biggest take-away from the speech is that Ed Miliband has managed to make Labour's energy policy even worse. He has a ridiculously unrealistic target for 100% renewables over the next 15 years and yet he'll be forcing energy companies to hold their prices flat for the first third of that period. This is inevitably going to end up with huge costs to the taxpayer and/or massive shortages of energy supply. The biggest joke about all this is that Ed Miliband used to be energy minister, so he should know what a catastrophe this will be.
All those renewable energy sources are backed up with thousands of expensive generators running on fossil fuels.
@Socrates - AIUI it's 100% "decarbonised" rather than 100% renewable. So there's scope for significant nuclear in there (currently ~20%), although don't tell the LibDem defectors that.
@TheWatcher - we already need backup, to cope with a 2GW nuclear plant going offline. And by 2030 tidal/wave looks like it will be fairly economic, which is capable of giving reliable baseload power if you have two sites half a tide apart.
America is bombing Syria on the pretext of bombing ISIS. Ramping up Saudi Arabia's training and arming of thousands more islamist militants (nice ones this time of course). Utterly desperate to unseat Assad no matter what the cost. Can anyone now deny that under its present psychotic leadership (of both 'right' and 'left'), America represents the biggest threat to world peace and world progress we have ever seen? Truly scary times.
I deny it. And I think it's an obviously stupid thing to say. Your anti-Americanism is clouding your whole interpretation of global events. The fact you think British stewardship of the world in the 19th century brought more prosperity than American stewardship of the world in the last 20th says it all.
Yes; it says that I've studied economic history to degree level. And like other times you've contradicted an 'obviously stupid' statement of mine, a brief look at the facts beforehand might serve you well.
'A hundred years ago, the international economy was entering the 20th century with the freest flow of goods, services and capital in human history. The previous century had witnessed expansion of global output and trade, and rising living standards in Europe and North America at a pace never before seen in human history. The 20th century then saw just over a decade of continued expansion, followed by the abrupt disruption of trading and financial ties during the First World War. After some steps toward a restoration of the prewar situation, the international economy collapsed during the decade of the Great Depression, and continued to be fragmented during the Second World War. The century-long trend toward globalization had been reversed and, as of 1950, or even 1960, globalization and the degree of integration of the world economy was considerably less than it had been fifty years before.' -Deputy director of the IMF (full disclosure; she goes on to say the trend after then was upward due to the efforts of her own organisation)
As for clouding, the only clouding is your own grim determination to hang on to your rose-tinted spectacles in the face of America's increasingly mendacious, dangerous and disastrous attempts to preserve its hegemony as it declines relative to emerging powers.
Only a minority of tax policy is devolved to Scotland.
For example, corporation tax and VAT are central. Why do you think the mansion tax (which will affect perhaps 50 homes in the whole of Scotland) would not be central.
Caroline Flint was asked directly at lunchtime
She said England only
Yeah, but that assumes that Caroline Flint knew what she was talking about. Having seen Rachel Reeves on the Daily Politics yesterday I'm not convinced.
@bbclaurak: Is the Valuation Agency that Labour wants to use to work out mansion tax, the same one that Eric Pickles said he would scrap?
Pickles nixed it two years ago:
Schemes for a ‘mansion tax’ have been torpedoed by Eric Pickles after he effectively deleted a database compiled by council tax spies containing details of millions of homes. The move means that any levy on properties worth more than £2million would now take years to introduce.
So what have we got from Miliband:- an utterly inadequate piece of gesture politics to save the crumbling NHS, electoral kiddy fiddling, the most offensive despicable type of tax there is (an asset tax), major interference in the housing market, more green insanity, some deranged piece of dishonesty aimed at the self-employed (presumably aimed at killing them off) and delusional promises to the low paid.
Yep same old Labour rubbish....
Why is an asset tax more despicable than an employment tax?
I'd rather tax non-productive assets which are over-valued as a result of market failure - we would all benefit from lower house prices - and use the proceeds to reduce more damaging taxes.
Labour details on mansion tax from BBC R5. Banded Overall average is £15,000 a year on 80,000 properties. (which is only £1.2bn at best) Some protection (? means test) to asset rich cash poor folk.
How are they going to value those 80000 properties every year?
Zoopla???
Re self-employed rights and pensions = as an IFA, i have no idea what they might be thinking on that one...... perhaps Labour thinks it's unfair that employees mandatorily get employer contributions under auto enrolment and harsh that the self-employed don't... which of course shows no understanding but otherwise what could it be?
Also serps/s2p used to hurt self-employed people but the state pension reforms from 2016 level that playing field too..
Answers welcome?
Possibly state would fund a self-employed person's paternity leave, but possibly they do already. The problem is a percentage of self-employed are really self-employed i.e. this is what they want to do and they are running a small business providing, say window cleaning service. But increasingly the self-employed are really working for other, bigger companies as a contractor. I think he's approaching it from the wrong end myself.
The bigger problem is that it doesn't matter how much money the government says it is going to give someone, if they really are self employed and running their own business they cannot take time off anyway for whatever reason or they end up losing customers. Compensation for income lost during time off in the form of paternity pay is meaningless if, when you go back to work, your customers have all gone elsewhere.
It is something of a running joke amongst the self employed and consultants that we do not get sick because we can't afford to.
To the average voter, EV4EL sounds like a political party whigeing about how unfair life is, and wouldn't it be better (for them) if the voting system was changed.
How does unaccountable Scots will decide on taxing English homes' sound??
Is the mansion tax really just on English homes? That would be so monumentally stupid as a policy I can't believe they'd do it.
It's on all homes. However, I'd estimate (and this is just top of the head, but I very much doubt I'm wrong), that 99.9% of homes above 2m in value are in England.
How can it be on all homes when by the time it comes into force it will be a devolved matter?
£2 million homes? How about islands or 'estates'?- do they count? Mull of Kintire is for sale for £3 million? Brian Souter bought belwood house for £1. If he's 'done it up' it might be worth £2 million now. But who values it.
And ... Isn't council tax which is what this is devolved anyway? And Miliband can only talk about the English NHS. Scottish NHS is devolved. Is English tax on English homes going to be channelled to Scotland? Voted by Scottish MPs?
To the average voter, EV4EL sounds like a political party whigeing about how unfair life is, and wouldn't it be better (for them) if the voting system was changed.
How does unaccountable Scots will decide on taxing English homes' sound??
Is the mansion tax really just on English homes? That would be so monumentally stupid as a policy I can't believe they'd do it.
It's on all homes. However, I'd estimate (and this is just top of the head, but I very much doubt I'm wrong), that 99.9% of homes above 2m in value are in England.
How can it be on all homes when by the time it comes into force it will be a devolved matter?
Only a minority of tax policy is devolved to Scotland.
For example, corporation tax and VAT are central. Why do you think the mansion tax (which will affect perhaps 50 homes in the whole of Scotland) would not be central.
Because if you look at the thread this morning, when I asked that very question, Labour have said so.
America is bombing Syria on the pretext of bombing ISIS. Ramping up Saudi Arabia's training and arming of thousands more islamist militants (nice ones this time of course). Utterly desperate to unseat Assad no matter what the cost. Can anyone now deny that under its present psychotic leadership (of both 'right' and 'left'), America represents the biggest threat to world peace and world progress we have ever seen? Truly scary times.
I deny it. And I think it's an obviously stupid thing to say. Your anti-Americanism is clouding your whole interpretation of global events. The fact you think British stewardship of the world in the 19th century brought more prosperity than American stewardship of the world in the last 20th says it all.
Yes; it says that I've studied economic history to degree level. And like other times you've contradicted an 'obviously stupid' statement of mine, a brief look at the facts beforehand might serve you well.
'A hundred years ago, the international economy was entering the 20th century with the freest flow of goods, services and capital in human history. The previous century had witnessed expansion of global output and trade, and rising living standards in Europe and North America at a pace never before seen in human history. The 20th century then saw just over a decade of continued expansion, followed by the abrupt disruption of trading and financial ties during the First World War. After some steps toward a restoration of the prewar situation, the international economy collapsed during the decade of the Great Depression, and continued to be fragmented during the Second World War. The century-long trend toward globalization had been reversed and, as of 1950, or even 1960, globalization and the degree of integration of the world economy was considerably less than it had been fifty years before.' -Deputy director of the IMF (full disclosure; she goes on to say the trend after then was upward due to the efforts of her own organisation)
As for clouding, the only clouding is your own grim determination to hang on to your rose-tinted spectacles in the face of America's increasingly mendacious, dangerous and disastrous attempts to preserve its hegemony as it declines relative to emerging powers.
Why don't you just look at how the average global income moved over 1815-1914, and see how it moved from 1946-2008? That's the one fact that is more important to "prosperity". Or are the only rising living standards you care about the ones in Western countries?
To the average voter, EV4EL sounds like a political party whigeing about how unfair life is, and wouldn't it be better (for them) if the voting system was changed.
How does unaccountable Scots will decide on taxing English homes' sound??
Is the mansion tax really just on English homes? That would be so monumentally stupid as a policy I can't believe they'd do it.
It's on all homes. However, I'd estimate (and this is just top of the head, but I very much doubt I'm wrong), that 99.9% of homes above 2m in value are in England.
How can it be on all homes when by the time it comes into force it will be a devolved matter?
Only a minority of tax policy is devolved to Scotland.
For example, corporation tax and VAT are central. Why do you think the mansion tax (which will affect perhaps 50 homes in the whole of Scotland) would not be central.
Because the plan is to devolve most of the rest of the tax raising powers to Scotland. VAT cannot be devolved because of the EU but almost all other taxes are in line to be devolved. Given that stamp duty is one of those I see no reason to expect that any future Mansion tax will be reserved for the UK government.
To the average voter, EV4EL sounds like a political party whigeing about how unfair life is, and wouldn't it be better (for them) if the voting system was changed.
How does unaccountable Scots will decide on taxing English homes' sound??
Is the mansion tax really just on English homes? That would be so monumentally stupid as a policy I can't believe they'd do it.
It's on all homes. However, I'd estimate (and this is just top of the head, but I very much doubt I'm wrong), that 99.9% of homes above 2m in value are in England.
How can it be on all homes when by the time it comes into force it will be a devolved matter?
Only a minority of tax policy is devolved to Scotland.
For example, corporation tax and VAT are central. Why do you think the mansion tax (which will affect perhaps 50 homes in the whole of Scotland) would not be central.
Because if you look at the thread this morning, when I asked that very question, Labour have said so.
The self-employed are already significantly subsidised through the the national insurance system. The Coalition's state pension / national insurance reforms will significantly increase that subsidy. I have no idea what he was talking about (didnt see the speech - have only seen that still!) but struggling to see how it relates to pensions so presuming it must be something else?
This is what he said:
To the growing army of our self-employed, five million working people so often the most entrepreneurial, go-getting people in our country -- they don’t want special treatment, but they do deserve a fair shot. Two thirds have no pension. Because of the jobs they do, one in five is stopped from getting a mortgage. It is time to end this modern, 21st century discrimination. The next Labour government will ensure there are equal rights for the self-employed.
No, I've no idea either. Is he proposing a compulsory pay cut for the self-employed?
It just doesnt make sense. And in any case, as I said, the state pension system is already very generous to the self employed and is getting better for them. There was even a short report on the expanding subsidy to them in yesterday's FT.
And I don't want handouts from the government. We do do pretty well with Class 4 NI etc so the last thing I want is more government money spent making yet more people more reliant on handouts.
To the average voter, EV4EL sounds like a political party whigeing about how unfair life is, and wouldn't it be better (for them) if the voting system was changed.
How does unaccountable Scots will decide on taxing English homes' sound??
Is the mansion tax really just on English homes? That would be so monumentally stupid as a policy I can't believe they'd do it.
It's on all homes. However, I'd estimate (and this is just top of the head, but I very much doubt I'm wrong), that 99.9% of homes above 2m in value are in England.
How can it be on all homes when by the time it comes into force it will be a devolved matter?
£2 million homes? How about islands or 'estates'?- do they count? Mull of Kintire is for sale for £3 million? Brian Souter bought belwood house for £1. If he's 'done it up' it might be worth £2 million now. But who values it.
Anyone with a mansion and some land will split them... at least legally... A house in the countryside on its own is very rarely worth 2m. With some farmland it's a very different story.
'A hundred years ago, the international economy was entering the 20th century with the freest flow of goods, services and capital in human history. The previous century had witnessed expansion of global output and trade, and rising living standards in Europe and North America at a pace never before seen in human history. The 20th century then saw just over a decade of continued expansion, followed by the abrupt disruption of trading and financial ties during the First World War. After some steps toward a restoration of the prewar situation, the international economy collapsed during the decade of the Great Depression, and continued to be fragmented during the Second World War....
Idle thought, but I've read that some people think the Seven Year's War could credibly claim to have been the First World War, which would presumably make the scuffle with Napolean WWII, the war in the trenches WWIII and the unfortunate business with Hitler WWIV.
Would this change our view of history to have the two major conflicts of the 20th century no longer identified as uniquely global? The naming of WWI and WWII has always struck me as a bit anomalous, when compared to the naming of so many previous wars.
Comments
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/timstanley/100287406/ed-miliband-is-really-quite-bad-at-his-job-for-the-sake-of-democracy-he-has-to-go/
The lie by which politicians of all stripes claim their policies are funded because they have found another source of tax a always annoys me. If this new tax does raise £1bn there is only £74bn to go before we start paying money back.
"it's like everything dan hodges has ever written coming true" overheard in press room re Ed speech.
They're probably not capable of getting more than ten seats, but can be relied upon to win at least two (Carswell and Farage.) The tricky bit is estimating the drag they have on the other Parties. That's very difficult to gauge.
LDs should probably be getting somewhere around 35 seats, so again not a big impact on the total Lab & Con seats,
It's assessing the likely split between L & C that I find difficult. You can see why I find the NOM option beguiling?
"He’s odd in the way that might have once earned him the distinction of “first boy in class to own a briefcase”.
Lol.
What about what Rachal Reeves said yesterday about running a surplus....if all this extra tax is going to spending, how are they going to get eliminate the deficit? Wider more sweeping cuts than the Coalition plans, sure the lefties like the sound of that.
I am wondering if the Tories for English votes for English laws isn;t just aimed at labour. I guess it could be a factor in lib/tory English battlegrounds
It strikes me that, although a fifteen year pledge is nonsense in many respects, it does avoid him having to tell people that he intends to start building one or two dozen nuclear power stations during the next Parliament, which is the obvious implication.
Hinkley Point C is due to be in operation in 2023, but I think they're still doing preparatory works before construction begins. believably any nuclear reactors whose construction started before 2020 would be completed in time for Miliband's 2030 pledge.
Mr. 2014, it got a mention. He mocked Cameron for failing to stop Juncker. He forgot to mock Blair for 'building bridges' by throwing away half our rebate.
Perhaps they could get John Cleese to do a PPB about it.
(Remind me, how did the Alliance do from their whinging about how unfair the electoral system was?)
Queen “Purred” at No Vote, “I Want to Sue” Polling Companies
“The definition of relief is being Prime Minister of the United Kingdom and calling the Queen and saying ‘It’s alright, it’s okay’. That was something. She purred down the line… But it should never have been that close, it wasn’t in the end. There was a time in the middle of the campaign when it felt… I’ve said I want to find these polling companies and I want to sue them for my stomach ulcers because of what they put me through. It was very nervous moments.”
http://order-order.com/2014/09/23/cameron-caught-on-camera-queen-purred-at-no-vote-i-want-to-sue-polling-companies/
Convenient timing....
@GuidoFawkes: When he's not talking to Miliband, Gareth enjoys novelty hats and oversized cocktails: http://t.co/RH7Jy5R8Me
I met two students from a top university in London recently. One of them said something to me that really stuck with me. She said: “My generation is falling into a black hole.” Then she said about her parents’ generation: “They had it so good and now there’s nothing left for us.”
According to the Guardian, the student is one Beatrice Bazel, "a researcher on Victorian women’s bodies in art."
I don't suppose it has occurred to her that perhaps her parents' generation might have been a bit more practical-minded in their choices at her age?
I was minded of the review of Spinal Tap's album "Shark Sandwich"
How does unaccountable Scots will decide on taxing English homes' sound??
Search youtube for...
Controlling the Capital of the Syrian Revolution: Ghosts of Aleppo
"Evel: it's good, not evil?"
Tory campaign slogan sorted.
"According to the Guardian, the student is one Beatrice Bazel, "a researcher on Victorian women’s bodies in art."
We are assuming here that it is "art" she is studying, which is quite likely, but is your point that she shouldn't study art, because it is unlikely to turn a profit?
So the Scots who fought in the Spanish Civil War were fighting for Englishness?
It was Englishness that persevered when the German bombs were falling in Clydebank?
What a tool.
But I am in a minority. A minority that is massively over-represented on here, and which is playing solely into Ed Milliband's hands. If you think EV4EL is a vote winner for either the Tories or UKIP then you are living in cloud cuckoo land.
People care about their jobs, their homes, their families. They care more about whether they have decent battery life on their iPhone and whether there are 3G deadspots in their house than EV4EL.
Put up the price of fags and fewer people smoke so income from the tax goes down. At the same time fewer people smoking means more people living longer and so more people needing long term, and very expensive, care (to say nothing about the increased pension costs). If Miliband wanted to provide extra money for the NHS from tobacco he would slash the tax on fags.
No new policy what-so-ever as far as I can work out, except perhaps idea there will be as many apprentices as students (really? - 800,000 a year??). Couple of reasonable jokes, which I now can't remember.
The most telling thing was the look on the faces of the shadow cabinet. Either they are all completely tired out from Scotland or real despair is seeping into their souls.
Please Alan Johnson save us.
There care more about whether Kim Kardashian has a new lipstick than they do about Evel.
Evel: it's good, not evil.
Is she a freelance researcher, or does she get "sponsored" for it?
How patronising. Nobody has a lower view of the working classes than a labour supporter.
1. Miliband will not be Prime Minister when the bill has to be paid - remember Hinkley Point C isn't due to switch-on until 2023, so if Miliband is implying a large new generation of nuclear power plants, these won't be generating expensive electricity before 2027, or so.
2. If, for some reason, it all goes wrong and the plants don't get built the government doesn't have to pay for it. Unless they do something like guarantee the loans.
And by the time the strategists in Smith Square realise this, Ed Milliband will be in Number 10.
There is no more money. Additional taxes also slow down economic growth with negative consequences for other tax takes, in this case SDLT being one obvious candidate.
Anyone serious about running this country would be focussed on getting more from less.
Well that's what you get for holding a conference in Birmingham.
And it says a lot about David Cameron. And his attitude to Scotland and the indy ref as a whole.
This is quite a big story isn't it?
Mili crackdown on hedge funds: he is removing "intermediary relief from stamp duty" that investment banks use when lending to other orgs
Well that didn't last long:
Sam Coates Times @SamCoatesTimes 3m
Other Labour spindoctor says hedge fund proposal is changing "contracts for difference". Total shambles. Labour don't know their own plan
For example, corporation tax and VAT are central. Why do you think the mansion tax (which will affect perhaps 50 homes in the whole of Scotland) would not be central.
To the growing army of our self-employed, five million working people so often the most entrepreneurial, go-getting people in our country -- they don’t want special treatment, but they do deserve a fair shot. Two thirds have no pension. Because of the jobs they do, one in five is stopped from getting a mortgage. It is time to end this modern, 21st century discrimination. The next Labour government will ensure there are equal rights for the self-employed.
No, I've no idea either. Is he proposing a compulsory pay cut for the self-employed?
http://www.labour.org.uk/blog/entry/2014-labour-conference-speech
Incidentally, on his efforts to speak about the English, was it me, or were all his examples from very recent history? Nothing about Alfred, or Edward III?
Surprised that the Standard regards "home owners" as sinners though!
I wasn't talking about the working classes.
You were. How embarrassing for you.
16 year olds are still doing their GCSEs and learning about life. They are barely out of their teeny tantrum stage. They are also very susceptible to their peers - witness the report of a class of 16 year olds voting Yes because the clever/cool guy in the class suggested it was the right thing to do. There is more of a case with 17 year olds who at least have made a decision whether to stay at school/college or go out to work and are that much maturer.
Edit Any views as to whether the Tories should simply oppose the extension of the franchise or go halfway house and give it to 17 year old only? Or back Ed?
She said England only
firstly, if it were UK-wide they would've said so. I believe they were questioned about this and prevaricated.
Secondly, if it's UK-wide, then the money will still be ploughed into 'our NHS' (ie in England). Taxing Scottish homes for English healthcare will not necessarily endear Miliband to the Scots, any more than having Scotsmen impose taxes on homes in England will endear him to the English.
Edited extra bit: ah, cheers, Mr. P, for the clarification this is indeed correct.
@TheWatcher - we already need backup, to cope with a 2GW nuclear plant going offline. And by 2030 tidal/wave looks like it will be fairly economic, which is capable of giving reliable baseload power if you have two sites half a tide apart.
I read on here that it was the worst speech ever except for Ed's other speeches.
'A hundred years ago, the international economy was entering the 20th century with the freest flow of goods, services and capital in human history. The previous century had witnessed expansion of global output and trade, and rising living standards in Europe and North America at a pace never before seen in human history. The 20th century then saw just over a decade of continued expansion, followed by the abrupt disruption of trading and financial ties during the First World War. After some steps toward a restoration of the prewar situation, the international economy collapsed during the decade of the Great Depression, and continued to be fragmented during the Second World War. The century-long trend toward globalization had been reversed and, as of 1950, or even 1960, globalization and the degree of integration of the world economy was considerably less than it had been fifty years before.' -Deputy director of the IMF (full disclosure; she goes on to say the trend after then was upward due to the efforts of her own organisation)
As for clouding, the only clouding is your own grim determination to hang on to your rose-tinted spectacles in the face of America's increasingly mendacious, dangerous and disastrous attempts to preserve its hegemony as it declines relative to emerging powers.
Schemes for a ‘mansion tax’ have been torpedoed by Eric Pickles after he effectively deleted a database compiled by council tax spies containing details of millions of homes.
The move means that any levy on properties worth more than £2million would now take years to introduce.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2113610/Mansion-tax-plan-foiled-Eric-Pickles--deletes-data.html#ixzz3E9mEEaK2
I'd rather tax non-productive assets which are over-valued as a result of market failure - we would all benefit from lower house prices - and use the proceeds to reduce more damaging taxes.
It is something of a running joke amongst the self employed and consultants that we do not get sick because we can't afford to.
And ... Isn't council tax which is what this is devolved anyway?
And Miliband can only talk about the English NHS. Scottish NHS is devolved. Is English tax on English homes going to be channelled to Scotland? Voted by Scottish MPs?
Yes this is the point. Labour are reverting to tax and spend. Already.
A house in the countryside on its own is very rarely worth 2m. With some farmland it's a very different story.
Would this change our view of history to have the two major conflicts of the 20th century no longer identified as uniquely global? The naming of WWI and WWII has always struck me as a bit anomalous, when compared to the naming of so many previous wars.
It was linked on here about half an hour before he came on stage