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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Ed Miliband speech – The Highlights

SystemSystem Posts: 12,597
edited September 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Ed Miliband speech – The Highlights

 

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  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    The best thing that could happen to Labour is that it is overshadowed by events elsewhere.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    It was a great speech.

    It was a terrible speech.

    He's going to win the next GE.

    He's going to lose the next GE.

    That should cover about 25 or so of the first 100 posts!
  • eekeek Posts: 30,799
    I was expecting a totally empty story to go with the blank sheet of paper...
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,855
    edited September 2014
    serious question -what is the detail for the equal rights for self employed?

    Logically if self employed had employment rights (from their customers presumably) then they are employees -no? Is Ed going to ban self employment? Are people going to get sued because they do not give a taxi driver notice that they will not be using them again ?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @kiranstacey: Seems Elizabeth might not vote Labour. RT@theousherwood When it comes to voting next year she is keeping an open mind.
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    I think noteless speeches should be banned.
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,815
    Neil said:

    It was a great speech.

    It was a terrible speech.

    He's going to win the next GE.

    He's going to lose the next GE.

    That should cover about 25 or so of the first 100 posts!

    So having covered the first n posts for large values of n - what shall we talk about? When's the Green conference Neil, and is Caroline Lucas or Natalie Bennett giving the final rousing speech?
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    Abolishing the House of Lords was probably the biggest story from the speech.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,360
    Neil said:

    It was a great speech.

    It was a terrible speech.

    He's going to win the next GE.

    He's going to lose the next GE.

    That should cover about 25 or so of the first 100 posts!

    It was a middling speech, and the next GE will be cancelled when Cthulhu invades.
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    How does the mansion tax work? Is it like stamp duty or council tax?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,776
    Mr. Away, no detail. As per just how much tax would be raised for the umpteen thousand extra NHS jobs, or how extra rights for the self-employed would work.

    I stubbed my toe the other day. Considering suing myself for an unsafe workplace, but I won't give myself time off to pursue it :(
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Artist said:

    Abolishing the House of Lords was probably the biggest story from the speech.

    Labour voted against HoL reform...
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @GregHands: Text from Labour councillor "Feel free to tweet but don't give my name or identification away: worst leaders speech I've ever seen. Dire."
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    When do we get our free Owls?
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    “Equal rights promised for self-employed”

    Not sure what that actually means – can anyone else elaborate…?
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @state_go_away

    'serious question -what is the detail for the equal rights for self employed?'

    Labour don't do detail.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,845
    Grandiose said:

    How does the mansion tax work? Is it like stamp duty or council tax?

    They don't know. They don't yet know how to identify which houses will be subject to it - let alone the cost of continually reassessing the value of properties....
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    Artist said:

    Abolishing the House of Lords was probably the biggest story from the speech.

    Labour's 1910 January manifesto:
    Each Session since the last general election important Bills, upon which the House of Commons had spent much time, have been mutiliated or destroyed by the House of Lords, an irresponsible body which represents nothing but its own class interests. Not content with this, they now claim the right to decide what taxes shall be paid, upon whom they shall be levied, and for what purpose they shall be spent. They also claim to dictate the date at which Parliament shall be dissolved. The time has come to put an end to their power to override the will of the Commons.

    The country has allowed landowners to pocket millions of pounds every year in the share of unearned increment, and yet they object to pay a small tax upon what, in justice, should belong to the State. They wish at all costs to preserve their power to plunder the people.

    The Labour party welcomes this opportunity to prove that the feudal age is past and that the people are no longer willing to live on the sufferance of the Lords.

    The issues you have to decide are simple. Our present system of land ownership has devastated our countryside, has imposed heavy burdens upon our industries, has cramped the development of our towns, and has crippled capital and impoverished labour.

    The Lords must go.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    edited September 2014
    state_go_away said:

    serious question -what is the detail for the equal rights for self employed?

    Self-employed talks to himself through the Looking Glass. "I'm Equal"- "Your so right".

    Will Ed, the Tweedledum, out do Cammo, the Tweedledee?
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    I think the biggest take-away from the speech is that Ed Miliband has managed to make Labour's energy policy even worse. He has a ridiculously unrealistic target for 100% renewables over the next 15 years and yet he'll be forcing energy companies to hold their prices flat for the first third of that period. This is inevitably going to end up with huge costs to the taxpayer and/or massive shortages of energy supply. The biggest joke about all this is that Ed Miliband used to be energy minister, so he should know what a catastrophe this will be.
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    So after years of complaining about the govts policy to help home buyers the labour opposition are saying they are going to help people buy their home ??
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,855
    edited September 2014
    re noteless speeches

    Cameron managed to pull it off once ,in very specific circumstances when he had to act macho and defiant over Brown maybe calling an early election.

    I think Miliband took note and tried it. Trouble is , needing to act macho and defiant is not what is needed now (and how could he do it anyway). What was needed was to provide some detail of how he would govern , notes help, both in structure and in showing he is serious and considered
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    On thread

    It lived up to all my hopes and expectations.
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    SimonStClare said:

    “Equal rights promised for self-employed”

    Not sure what that actually means – can anyone else elaborate…?

    The self employed will have the right to sue their employer... err...
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Makes you feel nostalgic for the good old days. In 2009 we had Peter Mandelson if you wanted quality, Gordon Brown's 'gulags for slags' if you wanted bathos, and the Sun being ceremoniously torn up on stage if you wanted tantrums.

    2014... just a faint sound of snoring..
  • CopperSulphateCopperSulphate Posts: 1,119
    That useless berk is going to be Prime Minister next year. It would be funny if it wasn't so ludicrous.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    BenM said:

    I think noteless speeches should be banned.

    It's the response from the lefties which tells you everything
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    What highlights?
  • eekeek Posts: 30,799
    edited September 2014
    state_go_away said:

    serious question -what is the detail for the equal rights for self employed?

    Logically if self employed had employment rights (from their customers presumably) then they are employees -no? Is Ed going to ban self employment? Are people going to get sued because they do not give a taxi driver notice that they will not be using them again ?

    I guess it ties in with https://docs.google.com/file/d/0BwGKLY5OG6OXSEJYdlhjN2NjT00/edit which seems half baked to me....
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited September 2014
    Socrates said:

    I think the biggest take-away from the speech is that Ed Miliband has managed to make Labour's energy policy even worse. He has a ridiculously unrealistic target for 100% renewables over the next 15 years and yet he'll be forcing energy companies to hold their prices flat for the first third of that period. This is inevitably going to end up with huge costs to the taxpayer and/or massive shortages of energy supply. The biggest joke about all this is that Ed Miliband used to be energy minister, so he should know what a catastrophe this will be.

    All those renewable energy sources are backed up with thousands of expensive generators running on fossil fuels.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/energy/10220083/We-could-soon-be-paying-billions-for-this-wind-back-up.html
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,776
    Mr. Watcher, I really liked the free owls policy, but he didn't mention it once :(
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Lay Labour Majority at 2.88. I've tipped this before (it was OGH that drove the price below 3.00 in the first place), so it's not just a reaction to the speech [and, more importantly, its reception].

    Labour barely get a majority on current polling, as bigjohnowls shows us. There is no way current polling will hold up until May.
  • eekeek Posts: 30,799
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    On thread

    It was as bad as I feared

    fixed that for you....
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited September 2014
    Flightpath said:

    SimonStClare said:

    “Equal rights promised for self-employed”

    Not sure what that actually means – can anyone else elaborate…?

    The self employed will have the right to sue their employer... err...
    Hmm, I regularly fire myself if I need time off - next time I'll sue ; )
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    edited September 2014
    state_go_away said:

    serious question -what is the detail for the equal rights for self employed?

    Logically if self employed had employment rights (from their customers presumably) then they are employees -no? Is Ed going to ban self employment? Are people going to get sued because they do not give a taxi driver notice that they will not be using them again ?

    Miliband didn't mention "employment rights". He did mention "pension" and "mortgage".

    My guess would be that if there is any policy behind this [not guaranteed] then it will be auto-enrolment of the self-employed in NEST, and somehow forcing the banks to give mortgages to the self-employed. There might also be changes to statutory maternity pay and statutory sick pay to make these work for the self-employed - but I don't know what the current rules are and what sensible/silly changes you might propose to them.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,800
    There were highlights?
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    eek said:

    state_go_away said:

    serious question -what is the detail for the equal rights for self employed?

    Logically if self employed had employment rights (from their customers presumably) then they are employees -no? Is Ed going to ban self employment? Are people going to get sued because they do not give a taxi driver notice that they will not be using them again ?

    I guess it ties in with https://docs.google.com/file/d/0BwGKLY5OG6OXSEJYdlhjN2NjT00/edit which seems half baked to me....
    It's funny - HMRC like to assume that freelancers are tax avoiders. How does that square with Ed?
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Ed just doesn't have it in him, sadly. He atleast seems to realise that the old "politics as usual" won't work (whereas the likes of Balls genuinely seem to think that the public fury is just a phase and that they don't need to change at all), but he just doesn't have it in him. He can't sound anything but a dull, mangerial, career politician.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Tissue_Price said:

    Lay Labour Majority at 2.88. I've tipped this before (it was OGH that drove the price below 3.00 in the first place), so it's not just a reaction to the speech [and, more importantly, its reception].

    Labour barely get a majority on current polling, as bigjohnowls shows us. There is no way current polling will hold up until May.

    I think the Con Maj and Lab Maj prices are the wrong way round.

    BTW I see that Betfair have started putting up some constituency markets.
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    eek said:

    state_go_away said:

    serious question -what is the detail for the equal rights for self employed?

    Logically if self employed had employment rights (from their customers presumably) then they are employees -no? Is Ed going to ban self employment? Are people going to get sued because they do not give a taxi driver notice that they will not be using them again ?

    I guess it ties in with https://docs.google.com/file/d/0BwGKLY5OG6OXSEJYdlhjN2NjT00/edit which seems half baked to me....
    I guess they could get some rights.

    Much academic ink has been spilled over whether I should be able to not shop at ASDA because their staff are gay or Muslim or black. Or hire a builder, which is more personal.

    I'm not sure about the principle, but in practice it is very difficult to imagine working.
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    state_go_away said:

    serious question -what is the detail for the equal rights for self employed?

    Logically if self employed had employment rights (from their customers presumably) then they are employees -no? Is Ed going to ban self employment? Are people going to get sued because they do not give a taxi driver notice that they will not be using them again ?

    According to ITV
    ''Labour would introduce to(sic) help self-employed people who struggle with issues such as pensions and getting mortgages.
    Ed Miliband said part of Labour's goal was to end the "21st century discrimination" against the UK's 5 million self-employed people.''

    Amazing.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    He can't sound anything but a dull, mangerial, career politician.

    That wouldn't necessarily matter if he had the policies. Did you find much in there to inspire you?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Admit it.

    You carefully selected that first still for your personal enjoyment, didn't you.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Mark Wallace‏@wallaceme·36 mins
    And that's the danger of making your entire conference about only one speech. #Lab14

    Adam Boulton‏@adamboultonSKY·36 mins
    Comment - least memorable and ambitious of EM's Conf speeches. But aimed at core vote and he is ahead in the opinion polls.

    Owen Jones‏@OwenJones84·31 mins
    A fair enough speech, delivered fine. The radical coherent alternative many of us want? Not there. #lab14

    Laura Kuenssberg‏@bbclaurak·27 mins
    If any undecided voter was waiting to be convinced that Ed M is PM in waiting, not very sure that was the speech that would do it...
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,855
    OblitusSumMe said:

    state_go_away said:

    serious question -what is the detail for the equal rights for self employed?

    Logically if self employed had employment rights (from their customers presumably) then they are employees -no? Is Ed going to ban self employment? Are people going to get sued because they do not give a taxi driver notice that they will not be using them again ?

    Miliband didn't mention "employment rights". He did mention "pension" and "mortgage".

    My guess would be that if there is any policy behind this [not guaranteed] then it will be auto-enrolment of the self-employed in NEST, and somehow forcing the banks to give mortgages to the self-employed. There might also be changes to statutory maternity pay and statutory sick pay to make these work for the self-employed - but I don't know what the current rules are and what sensible/silly changes you might propose to them.
    Thanks- As once self employed I never found myself barred from paying into a pension scheme , in fact you could choose from loads . Is this a 'right' or a threat to force the self employed to pay into a pension scheme?

    As for mortgages , banks do lend already to the self employed . in fact banks lend a lot of money to small businesses as they are their bread and butter.
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited September 2014
    Labour details on mansion tax from BBC R5.
    Banded
    Overall average is £15,000 a year on 80,000 properties. (which is only £1.2bn at best)
    Some protection (? means test) to asset rich cash poor folk.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    I have decided not to waste any eggs on him. They do not deserve such an ignominious fate. My cakes are at least appreciated.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @JoeMurphyLondon: Here you go, tonight's @EveningStandard splash on Ed Miliband speech http://t.co/WQ16bp2bRD
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Socrates said:

    I think the biggest take-away from the speech is that Ed Miliband has managed to make Labour's energy policy even worse. He has a ridiculously unrealistic target for 100% renewables over the next 15 years and yet he'll be forcing energy companies to hold their prices flat for the first third of that period. This is inevitably going to end up with huge costs to the taxpayer and/or massive shortages of energy supply. The biggest joke about all this is that Ed Miliband used to be energy minister, so he should know what a catastrophe this will be.

    Two options you missed out:

    1. The policy sounds good, but he has no intention of implementing it

    2. He knows, in his heart of hearts, that Ed Miliband will never be prime minister
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    Should lefties be placed on a suicide watch after this speech?
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,084
    Tissue_Price said:

    Lay Labour Majority at 2.88. I've tipped this before (it was OGH that drove the price below 3.00 in the first place), so it's not just a reaction to the speech [and, more importantly, its reception].

    Labour barely get a majority on current polling, as bigjohnowls shows us. There is no way current polling will hold up until May.

    Yep NOM looks nailed on.

    September MEF (Murali Election Forecast) as follows (released now but dated 2nd September)

    C 291 (-5)
    L 304 (+6)
    LD 26 (-2)
    UKIP 1 (+1)
    OTH 28

    Some upward movement from Labour mainly due to the good ICM they had in August - this will probably unwind when the next MEF is released.
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    edited September 2014
    I've never been convinced by Ed; one of those who sees him as a nice enough guy but very un-prime ministerial.

    I didn't hear the speech (frankly, and despite following politics, I forgot about it) but I will follow up later on what's been said.

    But I do think the timing of today's speech is bad for him.

    I just think there is only so much politics the average punter can take, and after the historic drama of last week in Scotland exhaustion has set in. Ed MIliband would've been better off waiting till next week.

    Compare this final-conference-speech-for-the-oppoistion-leader with Cameron's final one in 2009 and the interest, drama and limelight seems much less obvious.

    Or perhaps I'm busy doing other things?
  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    Nice and gentle from Ed, very sober in the circumstances of world war about to start again,very statesmanlike.He wouldn't have wished to knock Obama off the news agenda.He caught the zeitgeist on climate change,It feels like the seventies again for the global environmentalists.You can now get down to the frack down as fracking day is announced Cameron is backing the frackers because the frackers back his party.Rothschilds move out of oil has changed everything.
    Get Down To The Frack Down.

    http://www.globalfrackdown.org/
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    SimonStClare said:

    “Equal rights promised for self-employed”

    Not sure what that actually means – can anyone else elaborate…?

    Pensions, may be?

    For it to be logically sensible it needs to be rights granted by third parties that arise as a result of employment (i.e. imposed by the government).

    It's not my area (Neil?) but don't employed and self-employed have different pension treatments (at least until the Coalition's reforms come in).

    Otherwise most employee rights are to protect them from employers. So they just don't make sense in the context of self-employment.

    The alternative is that he is basically saying that contractors will be deemed to be employees - and taxed as such...
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    The energy policy is clearly aimed at Red Liberals who might be flirting with the Greens. It's politically savvy: those who hate it were never going to vote Labour anyway.
  • manofkent2014manofkent2014 Posts: 1,543
    Apologies if this has been posted but for those with money on the outcome of the Thanet seats next year there has been a major development. Manston airport has been sold for development. I'm not actually convinced there is a particular demand for such a site.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-kent-29326000

    How this will play out I have no idea but clearly it will have a significant influence on the election. That a local Tory MP is rather circumspect about it whereas the rather notorious leader of the Tory Kent County council welcomes it does indicated to an extent the mixed reaction it will provide. What I can suggest is it will likely further exacerbate local transport problems.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Glub glub.....

    Alastair Campbell‏@campbellclaret·5 mins
    Labour can balance up any disadvantage from 'only English MPs on english laws' with 'only MPs who use NHS/State schools can vote on them
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    RN: "BTW I see that Betfair have started putting up some constituency markets."

    This is probably as a result of the huge amount (circa £17million iirc) matched to their main Yes/No market in the Scottish referendum.
    I'm guessing they will do it half heartedly and clearly belatedly but we must be thankful for small mercies.
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    Labour details on mansion tax from BBC R5.
    Banded
    Overall average is £15,000 a year on 80,000 properties. (which is only £1.2bn at best)
    Some protection (? means test) to asset rich cash poor folk.

    That sounds like council tax, to answer my previous question. If it's just a tax on high earners, why not just have that? Also since it's not transaction based we'd need a new valuation. Surely this isn't going to work on 1992 prices.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    i think we're all waiting for the hodges report aren't we..... certainly we blues are...
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,784
    murali_s said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    Lay Labour Majority at 2.88. I've tipped this before (it was OGH that drove the price below 3.00 in the first place), so it's not just a reaction to the speech [and, more importantly, its reception].

    Labour barely get a majority on current polling, as bigjohnowls shows us. There is no way current polling will hold up until May.

    Yep NOM looks nailed on.

    September MEF (Murali Election Forecast) as follows (released now but dated 2nd September)

    C 291 (-5)
    L 304 (+6)
    LD 26 (-2)
    UKIP 1 (+1)
    OTH 28

    Some upward movement from Labour mainly due to the good ICM they had in August - this will probably unwind when the next MEF is released.
    Murali

    If those were the approximate seat estimates with a Spread Betting firm, I would be a buyer of LDs and UKIP.

    The implication of course is that NOM is indeed the most likely outcome.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,999
    Seriously? As a self employed person I am going to have equal rights? So I can take myself to Tribunal and claim holiday pay can I?
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,855
    peter_from_putney said:

    RN: "BTW I see that Betfair have started putting up some constituency markets."

    This is probably as a result of the huge amount (circa £17million iirc) matched to their main Yes/No market in the Scottish referendum.
    I'm guessing they will do it half heartedly and clearly belatedly but we must be thankful for small mercies.

    tbf betfair put up loads last time and barely any got any liquidity.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,776
    Mr. Scrapheap, that type of bullshit comparison by those against fairness for England is laughable.

    Why is Scottish devolution sensible, but English devolution derisory? Obviously it isn't, but some on the left, bizarrely desperate to avoid equality for England, keep claiming it is so.
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    antifrank said:

    The energy policy is clearly aimed at Red Liberals who might be flirting with the Greens. It's politically savvy: those who hate it were never going to vote Labour anyway.

    Yes.


    But I wonder about New Labourites. This is a dramatic market intervention, one way or another.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    Lay Labour Majority at 2.88. I've tipped this before (it was OGH that drove the price below 3.00 in the first place), so it's not just a reaction to the speech [and, more importantly, its reception].

    Labour barely get a majority on current polling, as bigjohnowls shows us. There is no way current polling will hold up until May.

    I think the Con Maj and Lab Maj prices are the wrong way round.

    BTW I see that Betfair have started putting up some constituency markets.
    Do you not believe in the free market ?
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    antifrank said:

    The energy policy is clearly aimed at Red Liberals who might be flirting with the Greens. It's politically savvy: those who hate it were never going to vote Labour anyway.

    It's politically savvy for this side of the election. When they try to enact it, it will be carnage.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,855
    surbiton said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    Lay Labour Majority at 2.88. I've tipped this before (it was OGH that drove the price below 3.00 in the first place), so it's not just a reaction to the speech [and, more importantly, its reception].

    Labour barely get a majority on current polling, as bigjohnowls shows us. There is no way current polling will hold up until May.

    I think the Con Maj and Lab Maj prices are the wrong way round.

    BTW I see that Betfair have started putting up some constituency markets.
    Do you not believe in the free market ?
    the free market always throws up opportunities to profit!!
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    surbiton said:

    Do you not believe in the free market ?

    Of course. And your point is what, exactly?
  • saddosaddo Posts: 534
    Grandiose said:

    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    Labour details on mansion tax from BBC R5.
    Banded
    Overall average is £15,000 a year on 80,000 properties. (which is only £1.2bn at best)
    Some protection (? means test) to asset rich cash poor folk.

    That sounds like council tax, to answer my previous question. If it's just a tax on high earners, why not just have that? Also since it's not transaction based we'd need a new valuation. Surely this isn't going to work on 1992 prices.
    Lots of large houses in London to be split to flats soon and shared amongst the family.

    On a more serious note, if the Trots do get in power, they'll have to some form valuation. Whats to stop them doing a full revaluation & then jacking up council tax for everyone?
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    state_go_away said:

    OblitusSumMe said:

    state_go_away said:

    serious question -what is the detail for the equal rights for self employed?

    Logically if self employed had employment rights (from their customers presumably) then they are employees -no? Is Ed going to ban self employment? Are people going to get sued because they do not give a taxi driver notice that they will not be using them again ?

    Miliband didn't mention "employment rights". He did mention "pension" and "mortgage".

    My guess would be that if there is any policy behind this [not guaranteed] then it will be auto-enrolment of the self-employed in NEST, and somehow forcing the banks to give mortgages to the self-employed. There might also be changes to statutory maternity pay and statutory sick pay to make these work for the self-employed - but I don't know what the current rules are and what sensible/silly changes you might propose to them.
    Thanks- As once self employed I never found myself barred from paying into a pension scheme , in fact you could choose from loads . Is this a 'right' or a threat to force the self employed to pay into a pension scheme?

    As for mortgages , banks do lend already to the self employed . in fact banks lend a lot of money to small businesses as they are their bread and butter.
    Yes, well it does sound a bit like magic wand time.

    If you are self-employed on a good income then you will be able to put aside money for a pension, and prove to a bank that you are not too risky to lend money to. If you're low paid then you won't be able to do either.

    The problem there is that the pay is too low - for whatever reason - and it's not obvious that you can regulate something like that away, absent a major restructuring of the economy.

    The problem is that he said so little about this that you can interpret it to mean whatever you like, for good or ill.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,830
    "Double first time home buyers".

    Economic illiteracy 101.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,269
    Is it allowed for a party to commission an opinion poll in a by election?

    If it is then I think ukip should've done so for H&M and released it, if favourable, after Eds speech
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    state_go_away said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    RN: "BTW I see that Betfair have started putting up some constituency markets."

    This is probably as a result of the huge amount (circa £17million iirc) matched to their main Yes/No market in the Scottish referendum.
    I'm guessing they will do it half heartedly and clearly belatedly but we must be thankful for small mercies.

    tbf betfair put up loads last time and barely any got any liquidity.
    I'm sure PfP will be happy to seed every constituency to about 110%, that should get the ball rolling...
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    manofkent2014 said:

    Apologies if this has been posted but for those with money on the outcome of the Thanet seats next year there has been a major development. Manston airport has been sold for development. I'm not actually convinced there is a particular demand for such a site.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-kent-29326000

    How this will play out I have no idea but clearly it will have a significant influence on the election. That a local Tory MP is rather circumspect about it whereas the rather notorious leader of the Tory Kent County council welcomes it does indicated to an extent the mixed reaction it will provide. What I can suggest is it will likely further exacerbate local transport problems.

    That's very disappointing.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,194
    America is bombing Syria on the pretext of bombing ISIS. Ramping up Saudi Arabia's training and arming of thousands more islamist militants (nice ones this time of course). Utterly desperate to unseat Assad no matter what the cost. Can anyone now deny that under its present psychotic leadership (of both 'right' and 'left'), America represents the biggest threat to world peace and world progress we have ever seen? Truly scary times.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,830
    @Socrates

    It's possible that Ed Milliband just has a different view of renewables to other people. For example, he might think in terms of:

    Wind (indirect solar)
    Solar (direct solar)
    Coal and gas (stored solar)

    Sure, coal and gas take millions of years to replenish, but - given a suitable time horizon - they are definitely renewable.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    state_go_away said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    RN: "BTW I see that Betfair have started putting up some constituency markets."

    This is probably as a result of the huge amount (circa £17million iirc) matched to their main Yes/No market in the Scottish referendum.
    I'm guessing they will do it half heartedly and clearly belatedly but we must be thankful for small mercies.

    tbf betfair put up loads last time and barely any got any liquidity.
    If I remember correctly, they left it far too late last time.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,800
    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    Labour details on mansion tax from BBC R5.
    Banded
    Overall average is £15,000 a year on 80,000 properties. (which is only £1.2bn at best)
    Some protection (? means test) to asset rich cash poor folk.

    How are they going to value those 80000 properties every year?
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Why is Scottish devolution sensible, but English devolution derisory?

    Ita about accountability All MPs in England are accountable to their electorates on the NHS, whether they use it or not.

    I heard a similar idiotic point made about only women voting on women's issues. The point is that all MPs should be subject to the sanction of the electorate in return for being given the power of being an MP.

  • manofkent2014manofkent2014 Posts: 1,543
    So what have we got from Miliband:- an utterly inadequate piece of gesture politics to save the crumbling NHS, electoral kiddy fiddling, the most offensive despicable type of tax there is (an asset tax), major interference in the housing market, more green insanity, some deranged piece of dishonesty aimed at the self-employed (presumably aimed at killing them off) and delusional promises to the low paid.

    Yep same old Labour rubbish....
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,830
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Can anyone now deny that under its present psychotic leadership (of both 'right' and 'left'), America represents the biggest threat to world peace and world progress we have ever seen? Truly scary times.

    I deny it. Somehow I doubt I'm the only one.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,084
    Peter_the_Punter said:

    murali_s said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    Lay Labour Majority at 2.88. I've tipped this before (it was OGH that drove the price below 3.00 in the first place), so it's not just a reaction to the speech [and, more importantly, its reception].

    Labour barely get a majority on current polling, as bigjohnowls shows us. There is no way current polling will hold up until May.

    Yep NOM looks nailed on.

    September MEF (Murali Election Forecast) as follows (released now but dated 2nd September)

    C 291 (-5)
    L 304 (+6)
    LD 26 (-2)
    UKIP 1 (+1)
    OTH 28

    Some upward movement from Labour mainly due to the good ICM they had in August - this will probably unwind when the next MEF is released.
    Murali

    If those were the approximate seat estimates with a Spread Betting firm, I would be a buyer of LDs and UKIP.

    The implication of course is that NOM is indeed the most likely outcome.

    Agree Peter - the LDs do look low. UKIP is a real unknown which many predictive models can't seem to get a handle on...
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    @Charles – many thanks for your reply - you appear to have given more thought,time and detail than Ed.. - my fear, when the truth be out, they'll be a sting in the tail somewhere.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,855
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    America is bombing Syria on the pretext of bombing ISIS. Ramping up Saudi Arabia's training and arming of thousands more islamist militants (nice ones this time of course). Utterly desperate to unseat Assad no matter what the cost. Can anyone now deny that under its present psychotic leadership (of both 'right' and 'left'), America represents the biggest threat to world peace and world progress we have ever seen? Truly scary times.

    May I have the honour of being the first to deny that America is the biggest threat to world peace
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited September 2014
    There seems to be an unusual silence from the Guardian commentators...
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,776
    Just so, Mr. Taffys.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    A cheap way to value mansions would be to log buildings for tax that have been sold for 2M in the last 5 years.

    Terribly unfair and wont bring in the revenue predicted - but cheap - and its only a gimmick after all
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,830
    isam said:

    Is it allowed for a party to commission an opinion poll in a by election?

    If it is then I think ukip should've done so for H&M and released it, if favourable, after Eds speech

    Yes, perfectly allowed. However, polls are expensive, and most political parties (even UKIP) are poor.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,830
    state_go_away said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    America is bombing Syria on the pretext of bombing ISIS. Ramping up Saudi Arabia's training and arming of thousands more islamist militants (nice ones this time of course). Utterly desperate to unseat Assad no matter what the cost. Can anyone now deny that under its present psychotic leadership (of both 'right' and 'left'), America represents the biggest threat to world peace and world progress we have ever seen? Truly scary times.

    May I have the honour of being the first to deny that America is the biggest threat to world peace
    Sorry s_g_a, you were the second to state the blatantly obvious.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,194
    state_go_away said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    America is bombing Syria on the pretext of bombing ISIS. Ramping up Saudi Arabia's training and arming of thousands more islamist militants (nice ones this time of course). Utterly desperate to unseat Assad no matter what the cost. Can anyone now deny that under its present psychotic leadership (of both 'right' and 'left'), America represents the biggest threat to world peace and world progress we have ever seen? Truly scary times.

    May I have the honour of being the first to deny that America is the biggest threat to world peace
    Certainly. I hope your journey of enlightenment will not be a long and fraught one.

  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Whats to stop them doing a full revaluation & then jacking up council tax for everyone?

    I'm sure the conservatives will be asking that question
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Charles said:

    Socrates said:

    I think the biggest take-away from the speech is that Ed Miliband has managed to make Labour's energy policy even worse. He has a ridiculously unrealistic target for 100% renewables over the next 15 years and yet he'll be forcing energy companies to hold their prices flat for the first third of that period. This is inevitably going to end up with huge costs to the taxpayer and/or massive shortages of energy supply. The biggest joke about all this is that Ed Miliband used to be energy minister, so he should know what a catastrophe this will be.

    Two options you missed out:

    1. The policy sounds good, but he has no intention of implementing it

    2. He knows, in his heart of hearts, that Ed Miliband will never be prime minister
    You should immediately ignore any pledge from any politician who will not be in post when the pledge is scheduled to be delivered.

    Ed Miliband might be Prime Minister in 2015, but he won't be Prime Minister in 2030.

    If he'd wanted to make a pledge that was meaningful he could have said all sorts of things: x number of wind turbines to be built by 2020, y number of coal power stations replaced by renewable generation by 2020, etc

    Instead he made a pledge he doesn't have to deliver on.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,156
    Slackbladder said:

    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    Labour details on mansion tax from BBC R5.
    Banded
    Overall average is £15,000 a year on 80,000 properties. (which is only £1.2bn at best)
    Some protection (? means test) to asset rich cash poor folk.

    How are they going to value those 80000 properties every year?
    Maybe all those trained "HIPS" inspectors can be brought back out of retirement to go sniffing around people's homes.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,855
    Tissue_Price said:

    state_go_away said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    RN: "BTW I see that Betfair have started putting up some constituency markets."

    This is probably as a result of the huge amount (circa £17million iirc) matched to their main Yes/No market in the Scottish referendum.
    I'm guessing they will do it half heartedly and clearly belatedly but we must be thankful for small mercies.

    tbf betfair put up loads last time and barely any got any liquidity.
    I'm sure PfP will be happy to seed every constituency to about 110%, that should get the ball rolling...
    well some people think its not that ethical for a player to player exchange to get involved in setting markets. You have bookies for that. I actually think betfair puts up too many seat markets and should just concentrate on say the most 'coin flip' twenty or so.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    i think we're all waiting for the hodges report aren't we..... certainly we blues are...

    Harry Cole‏@MrHarryCole·6 mins
    "it's like everything dan hodges has ever written coming true" overheard in press room re Ed speech.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,321
    edited September 2014
    Paul Waugh ‏@paulwaugh 58s
    Now @sirajdatoo says The Horrors irritated EdM used their music.

    The band's tweets to the dear leader will go viral.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,855
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Slackbladder said:

    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    Labour details on mansion tax from BBC R5.
    Banded
    Overall average is £15,000 a year on 80,000 properties. (which is only £1.2bn at best)
    Some protection (? means test) to asset rich cash poor folk.

    How are they going to value those 80000 properties every year?
    Maybe all those trained "HIPS" inspectors can be brought back out of retirement to go sniffing around people's homes.
    Oh yes HIPS I nearly forgot about them
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,194
    rcs1000 said:

    state_go_away said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    America is bombing Syria on the pretext of bombing ISIS. Ramping up Saudi Arabia's training and arming of thousands more islamist militants (nice ones this time of course). Utterly desperate to unseat Assad no matter what the cost. Can anyone now deny that under its present psychotic leadership (of both 'right' and 'left'), America represents the biggest threat to world peace and world progress we have ever seen? Truly scary times.

    May I have the honour of being the first to deny that America is the biggest threat to world peace
    Sorry s_g_a, you were the second to state the blatantly obvious.
    If that's the case, I'd like to hear your blatantly obvious alternative please.

  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Slackbladder said:

    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    Labour details on mansion tax from BBC R5.
    Banded
    Overall average is £15,000 a year on 80,000 properties. (which is only £1.2bn at best)
    Some protection (? means test) to asset rich cash poor folk.

    How are they going to value those 80000 properties every year?
    Zoopla???

    Re self-employed rights and pensions = as an IFA, i have no idea what they might be thinking on that one...... perhaps Labour thinks it's unfair that employees mandatorily get employer contributions under auto enrolment and harsh that the self-employed don't... which of course shows no understanding but otherwise what could it be?

    Also serps/s2p used to hurt self-employed people but the state pension reforms from 2016 level that playing field too..

    Answers welcome?
This discussion has been closed.

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