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Can Liz Truss turn this round? – politicalbetting.com
Can Liz Truss turn this round? – politicalbetting.com
Above is the Wikipedia polling chart showing how things have moved in the GB national opinion polls since the December 2019 General Election. The trend lines are local regressions.
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She is inevitably going to disappoint some people.
I see a route to a small majority. But to do so Truss needs to grow into the role, be a lucky general with the Ukraine war coming to an end and energy prices starting to come down, and bet the house on some eye-catching policies to help with cost of living and hope that they don’t send the economy out of control. Oh and improve her presentation skills. That is a big ask. Conceivable? Yes. Likely? Probably not.
Paul Brand
@PaulBrandITV
·
12m
Liz Truss says “it is fair” that her national insurance cut will benefit the richest to the tune of about £2k and do relatively little for the lowest paid. She argues there has been too much focus on the distribution of income in the past twenty years.
https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1566339080312406017
Trump 74 million votes
The end of the war will bring a massive boost to whoever is in power. The Tories can choose whether to benefit themselves, or to benefit SKS.
If the war continues to GE 2024, then the Tories will lose badly. Probably another 1997 that will see them out of power for a decade.
All the signs from the Tories on pb.com is that they want SKS to get the massive boost.
West will not result in a happy resumption of the status quo ante.
I read somewhere that you need to have an annual income of ca. £62,000 to avoid fuel stress this winter.
If so, an awful lot of people are going to be very stressed out. I don't have that income. Even with my husband we don't have that. None of my children even come close to that.
Let's pray for a mild winter.
Reminder: at some point, inside information about the count may be leaked.
Rishi is not very liquid; the price on Liz Truss is a more reliable signal.
Betfair next prime minister
1.04 Liz Truss 96%
23 Rishi Sunak 4%
Next Conservative leader
1.03 Liz Truss 97%
25 Rishi Sunak 4%
(Monday lunchtime).
“I nominate you for the @Plato_Says memorial award for disappearing down the alt.right black hole”
++++
Yes, possibly
That’s what Civil Wars do. They polarise
One other challenge for Truss. Realistically, she has two years before the next election. That's not an enormous amount of time to do anything in government. Even less time if Mr, Mrs, Miss, Mx Voter is to see any benefits.
There is no quick end to the war for Russia, if the goal is to recover its "historical" lands.
If we want the war to end, then both countries will need to compromise. That is always how wars end.
Ultimately, this is what will happen because Ukrainians and Russians will want to stop dying and because Europe will run out of patience and money.
The financial costs of this war are being borne very unequally. It is Europe that is being impoverished -- not the USA and not China. It is European industries & businesses & governments that will be bankrupted by energy costs.
If we want the war to end quickly with a Ukrainian win, then the only sensible course is massive military intervention by NATO on the Ukrainian side.
That obviously carries huge risks, but it makes more sense than half-hearted support that is currently being offered.
It’ll be May ‘24 at the earliest, and more likely October ‘24. The only way it’s early, is if there’s more than 40 floor-crossers in the Commons.
I appreciate that they can technically deny an election till January 2025, but there is no way they can make it that far if they are constantly behind in the polls and people are in the streets.
You think that people who spent decades campaigning against the EU suddenly supported Brexit because of some minor proposed regulations? Do you think the EU is free of oligarchs or money laundering?
Would that be deserved? No. Of course not. He’s a maniac and a brute
However it would mollify the right in the USA. At a crucial moment. Pulling them back from civil war
And trump is not obviously a bad politician. He has good instincts - like lab leak. The big issue would be US withdrawal from NATO and isolationism - clearly bad for the UK, tho justifiable from a US perspective
The likely alternative - a win by an aged Biden and a worsening of Wokeness leads, I think, to civil strife of some kind
And I would love to know where that £2k figure comes from I make is something like £800 for someone on £100,000....
As her victory has become clearer her policy pontifications have become more absurd. Blue wall, red wall, she's antagonising everyone. This can only mean we all become the more grateful for Johnson when he saves the day.
Starmer verses a rejuvenated, cleansed, war hero Johnson is a no brainer. We may all be skint but Bozza makes us laugh! And what do they say? Laughter is the best medicine.
Brexit revealed that about 40% of Britain is clinically insane - like @Daveyboy1961 and @Scott_xP
Pleasingly, many of them are snooty middle class like the philosopher A C Grayling
https://twitter.com/jessphillips/status/1566351241860579328
But of course they might. There are no good choices for America now. I’m trying to plot a way out of their current peril
It really looks like a force 12 shitstorm over the next year or two.
The practical problem with Ukraine giving up territory is that it's not obvious why Putin doesn't just take what he's got, build up the logistics as far as the border, give it a couple of years to rearm and then try again. If someone's got a way to guarantee "this much but no further" then it might be rational for both Ukraine and the other western countries to agree, but the history of such attempts isn't great.
Direct military intervention by NATO could plausibly be very expensive for NATO members because it might result in World War 3, which would be substantially worse for EU states than expensive energy prices.
(auto translated)
"One property of Liz Truss, according to British journalists, can, if not prevent her from defeating Rishi Sunak, then at least cause trouble in the future: she is a rather bad speaker.
Bad by the standards of great Britain - a country where many, and not only politicians or journalists, are perfectly able to speak, because they study here to speak in front of the public and conduct debates here from childhood, even at school.
But if Truss says something not prepared in advance, there may be surprises."
https://www.bbc.com/russian/features-62585435
Standing in front of a blood red backdrop, flanked by marines, saying the Republicans are fascist, is basically saying: “republicans must never win. They are not American. I am America”
It’s the equivalent of Charles II dissolving Parliament in 1629
https://twitter.com/AnitaBart/status/1566090348421840896/photo/1
https://twitter.com/EmmaKennedy/status/1566324937819922432
Doesn't always have to stay like that...
Your shock jock conspiracy theories are the work of a fiction writer with an enlarged sense of imagination.
Юстас Алексу
@Vladimi03721352
Вот эта дамочка будет следующим премьером Британии.
Смотришь на это фото и вспоминаешь старый анекдот : английская еда и английские женщины сделали британцев лучшими моряками в мире.
This lady will be the next Prime Minister of Britain.
You look at this photo and remember the old joke: English food and English women made the British the best sailors in the world.
https://twitter.com/Vladimi03721352/status/1566126231250239491
Someone has to stand up to these guys. Your solution, rolling over and giving them what they want less they get violent has been tried and has failed with catastrophic consequences.
Though these next two years will demonstrate that a freemarketeer Brexit clashes in a major way with the insular, protectionist Brexit and Lexit that many voted for. It is clear which side Truss is on.
Whether that leads to support for a Corbynesque Lexit or to support for the growing Rejoin movement is yet to be seen.
The speculation yesterday was an October 2023 general election, which while earlier than required would not really count as snap
“Woke” is something that keeps you awake at night but it is a straw man, a shibboleth for you chaps of the alt-right. “Woke” - the imaginary enemy. While Trump forces 10 year old rape victims to give birth, fixes the electoral system so only Republicans can win, casts opposition as “Enemies of the State” (as he did yesterday) you’ll still be banging on about sodding pronouns and statues.
Remember after Hollande won in France in 2012 plenty of early polls pointed to a Sarkozy return in 2017
I’ll speculate. I think Truss has inadvertently tapped into sub conscious sexism in British society. Were she a man who had held multiple cabinet roles (including Foreign Sec) without much in the way of either scandalous underperformance or spectacular achievement, with a relatively successful private sector career behind them, wooden presentation skills and right wing economic instincts, we wouldn’t call them “a disaster”.
We would call them Jeremy Hunt. The same Jeremy Hunt that the soft left now seems to think is some sort of Tory elder statesman and the only sane member of the Conservative Party.
Give her a chance. If she’s shit then we’ll all vote her out in very short order!
Liz is a liability
Better would be switching from sanctions, which in the short term at least are not hitting Russia, to more weapons supplies for Ukraine
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/19698308/russia-uk-prices-sanctions-food/
The fact that these gains have either been taxed not at all (houses) or very lightly (CGT -Entrepreneur Reliefs= diddly squat) whilst incomes have been penalised has allowed the rich to get much richer and kept the poor in their place. The aspirational middle classes have been squeezed out as creating capital from income so savagely taxed is almost impossible. Thatcher's dream of a shareholding, property owning democracy is dead. The death of these dreams is the Tories' biggest problems and it serves them right.
Charles 1 indeed. My typo
"With me, what you see is what you get," says Liz Truss, who in the space of her political career has gone from an anti-monarchist Lib Dem, to a Cameroon Remain-supporting Conservative, to a hardline Brexiteer.
https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1566345535866474496
year olds. You’re a dangerous cretin
She is quite clearly against redistribution and all for trickle down
The evidence that the current Republican party has no respect for institutions, the rule of law, election results and dissent is simply overwhelming. A Trump victory, giving him access to the levers of power once again, is very likely to be fatal to a working democracy in the United States. The threat is real and Biden was right to point it out, even if his backdrop was seriously silly.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k1KxthvX1Ms
And if you think the left welcome Truss' proposed NI cut benefitting the highest earners most I suggest you haven't read Twitter this morning
She can look terrible in photos. But she can also look quite mmmmyes
The Falklands War is another (though as the claim to the Malvinas has not been withdrawn, it is perhaps premature to regard this matter as "over"). Like most boundary disputes, there is enormous resilience to achieving a resolution.
This War at present seems to bear little resemblance to either WW2 or the Falklands War. I don't think the invasion of Russia is even remotely possible without nuclear holocaust -- as of course would be necessary for the parallel with WW2. And the War is nothing like the Falklands conflict, which was very limited in its scope to some desolate, underpopulated islands.
The US and Russian Wars in Afghanistan are better parallels, though I think the Iran-Iraq War is still closer still. It has two reasonably matched armies fighting a war about where the boundary of their countries should be.
The Russian War in Afghanistan lasted a decade. The US war lasted for closer to two decades. The Iran-Iraq War lasted 8 years.
I think these are reasonable estimates for how long this war will take, if matters continue as present.
We, the west, and Europe in particular should have given the Ukrainians the weapons they need, in the quantities they needed to win this, combined with training. It may be too late now, I don't know, I hope not, but we have fought this totally the wrong way.
Promising to spend an extra 100 billion euros to upgrade your own armed forces over the next few years, is a lot more expensive and a lot less effective than spending 10 billion over a copole of months.
I don't need the money, I already earn well and I am not going to struggle in an incoming crisis. I have savings, investments and a secure job.
Why on Earth are they giving tax cuts to me, I am not going to spend money, I am going to save it.
You are free to disagree. But I take this position not of naivety but cold hearted realpolitik
America is in danger of destroying the Enlightenment whichever way it turns - Trump or Biden
Of course the best outcome is trump dropping dead - so sad - and de Santis winning
The real context is that people are facing disastrously big increases in their fuel bills. The "wow" is that Truss seems to think this a serious response to the crisis.
In terms of wealth inequality though we are about middle of western nations
https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1566355997312094209?s=20&t=S8S1frmSBF3M5wzfzSbuDQ
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_wealth_inequality
But you are right that many over the age of 40 have at least got some modest foothold in the appreciating assets game. It is why the Tories still poll reasonably well with them but barely exist in those younger who have missed out. If the Tories want a future they need to massively increase housebuilding so that the value of property falls in real if not nominal terms and becomes more affordable to the young.
I was at a house party last night, mostly older professionals who worked their way up and are retired or close to it. A few young professionals too. Everyone was worried about bills. The topics were smart heating so we didn’t have to heat the whole house, how much insulation was and how broke we were going to be (in very polite, middle-class terms). Most of these people had paid their mortgage off and were worried they’d have to burn their savings up. No one thought the government were doing enough, either ScotGov or UK.
From my perspective, my partner and I earn over £70k a year gross. Once a sadly passed relative’s estate clears probate and is wrapped up I’ll be in the exceptionally fortunate position of being able to pay off my mortgage. With the predicted increase in January we’re going to only narrowly dodge fuel poverty by the technical definition because we don’t have kids. We can maintain a reasonable standard of living, just about. On £70k a year. And a paid off mortgage. Think about how fucked up that is and how many people are going to be harmed by this.
I’ve done what I can. I had more insulation retrofitted in April and installed a smart heating controller with room by room zonal heating yesterday. I’m looking for a better paid role because the civil service isn’t willing to pay me properly (sadly didn’t get the role I was interviewing for but hey ho). I’m still properly worried.