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Can Liz Truss turn this round? – politicalbetting.com

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  • mhartmhart Posts: 15

    Leon said:

    Thought experiment. I suggest the best possible outcome for America now is an obviously valid Trump win in 2024. A win that he doesn’t have to enforce with violence

    Would that be deserved? No. Of course not. He’s a maniac and a brute

    However it would mollify the right in the USA. At a crucial moment. Pulling them back from civil war

    And trump is not obviously a bad politician. He has good instincts - like lab leak. The big issue would be US withdrawal from NATO and isolationism - clearly bad for the UK, tho justifiable from a US perspective

    The likely alternative - a win by an aged Biden and a worsening of Wokeness leads, I think, to civil strife of some kind

    Trump has good instincts. His vision (America turning its back on the world, but being so well-armed that nobody can touch them) is really the only way that the long term future looks OK for the USA. If this does not happen, and the US continues on its present course, very big chickens will come home to roost, culpability for Covid amongst them.
    Problem is if Trump wins the woke left go crazy and you might have civil war anyway
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 20,052
    By the way, one bit of good news: an impending renewal of conflict that seems to have been called off:

    https://interfax.com/newsroom/top-stories/82824/
  • Sandpit said:

    Zelensky writes a column in the Mail on Sunday today:

    I am proud to say again that during this difficult time the UK has stood shoulder to shoulder with us, as the dearest friend and closest ally. As president, I realise that the policy and actions of the Government embody the public will.

    I am impressed by the number of Ukrainian flags flying high and proudly throughout the United Kingdom to demonstrate solidarity with Ukraine and Ukrainians.

    I am deeply encouraged by the unanimity and cohesion of all political parties in the British Parliament in support of Ukraine. People in the UK should know that every day of struggle for their very existence, Ukrainians are immensely grateful to your country.

    But I also believe in the power of personal leadership. I know it has not been an easy ride for Boris Johnson as he had to deal with many internal challenges. Prioritising support for Ukraine demanded great courage and determination.


    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11177097/VOLODYMYR-ZELENSKY-battles-raged-Boris-Johnson-came-Kyiv-messages-hope.html

    Damage limitation after his wife's disastrous interview.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,316

    Leon said:

    Thought experiment. I suggest the best possible outcome for America now is an obviously valid Trump win in 2024. A win that he doesn’t have to enforce with violence

    Would that be deserved? No. Of course not. He’s a maniac and a brute

    However it would mollify the right in the USA. At a crucial moment. Pulling them back from civil war

    And trump is not obviously a bad politician. He has good instincts - like lab leak. The big issue would be US withdrawal from NATO and isolationism - clearly bad for the UK, tho justifiable from a US perspective

    The likely alternative - a win by an aged Biden and a worsening of Wokeness leads, I think, to civil strife of some kind

    Trump has good instincts. His vision (America turning its back on the world, but being so well-armed that nobody can touch them) is really the only way that the long term future looks OK for the USA. If this does not happen, and the US continues on its present course, very big chickens will come home to roost, culpability for Covid amongst them.
    Trump’s basic instincts are the precise opposite of good.
  • Leon said:

    American Nazis rallying in New York in 1939



    Joe Biden rallying in Philadelphia in 2022



    Biden 81 million votes
    Trump 74 million votes

    :innocent:
  • mhartmhart Posts: 15

    Leon said:

    Biden’s team have absolutely used Fascist tropes in the staging of that speech. Which, given that it was a speech denouncing fascist republicans - and using the F word - is mind boggling and deeply strange

    The 21st century doesn’t get any more normal

    I'm not into flag-shagging, but if fascists had never done anything but that, we'd be quite tolerant of fascism. Biden's speech does not criticise Trump for excessive use of flags, after all. You mistake the decor (which as OLB notes is not unusual in the US) for the cohtent.
    Leon is criticising the symbolism. On that i see where he comes from
  • A six bedroom, 3650sqft house in Montclair, New Jersey. Built 1927.

    Less than $1m.

    About 14 miles from Wall Street.

    https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/155-Highland-Ave-Montclair-Twp.-NJ-07042-1913/38680798_zpid/

    What does £850k buy you in Epping, Brentwood, Oxted or Epsom?

    The privilege of living very far away from New Jersey?
  • DynamoDynamo Posts: 651

    Penddu2 said:

    Russia-Ukraine Red Lines:

    Russia will eventually have to abandon Kerson (west of Dnieper) and that is when a peace deal could be negotiated.

    Russia will want to hold everything it still holds at that point (but will drop its stupider requests such as receiving payment from Ukraine for Russia's war losses).

    Ukraine will want Russia to return to its pre-2014 borders.

    Compromise could be in Russia holding Crimea and its current land in Donbass - but returning other lands in Southern Ukraine and around Kharkiv. Crimea to be demilitarised (except for Sevastopol port) - With UN/Turkish peace-keeping troops brought in to police the border. Ukraine would need to guarantee water & electricity supply - and also demilitarise say 10km from Zaporizia nuclear plant - again use UN/Turkish troops to police.

    Russian sanctions to be dropped in return for reparation payments to Ukraine - say at a 10% levy on gas exports for 10 years

    You can’t reward Russia for invading Ukraine. That just incentivises the next time. They need to be stopped and pushed back.

    There comes a time when you say “Enough! No More!”. That time is now.
    @StillWaters - Will you be telling the Taliban the same thing, Rambo-style? Anyway the west is unlikely to get any say in this matter, any more than Austria-Hungary will.

    @Penddu2 - Or Chinese peacekeepers perhaps but they might not want to do it. Totally agreed that a compromise is needed in which both sides make concessions. Ukraine will want a foot in Sevastopol but they're unlikely to get one, although perhaps a section of the agreement, on a certain face-saving reading, might be interpretable as saying they might possibly get one in the future. Any settlement or "roadmap" would have to address the big question of Ukrainian neutrality or NATO membership or some intermediate status.

    All of this may soon become irrelevant if enough "accidents" happen at strategic points in Karelia etc. - perhaps then in Kaliningrad, Estonia, Netherlands, Britain, Germany, wherever.

    Like me, you obviously want this war to end. But there are those who want WW3.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 17,643
    edited September 2022
    carnforth said:

    A six bedroom, 3650sqft house in Montclair, New Jersey. Built 1927.

    Less than $1m.

    About 14 miles from Wall Street.

    https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/155-Highland-Ave-Montclair-Twp.-NJ-07042-1913/38680798_zpid/

    What does £850k buy you in Epping, Brentwood, Oxted or Epsom?

    Did you scroll past the first two photoshop pictures to see its current state? Needs another $1m of work. It may also have tens or hundreds of thousands of back-taxes due.
    Lol.

    Ok fair enough, I did not.

    But I encourage you to look around other properties in Montclair, New Jersey, which I chose because it’s known as a trendy place to move to when you have kids.

    Anyway my contention is:

    1. London and the SE are not densely populated compared to New York and it’s surrounds.

    2. Somehow, greater New York allows people to aspire to - and live - the middle class dream, which seems thoroughly dead in the South East.

  • sylv said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Dynamo said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Is this deliberate? Some kind of bizarre, trolling joke? If so that is criminally irresponsible when America is so volatile. Or is Biden trying to say “I’m the real fascist”. But why would he do that?

    I suspect it is just an enormous error




    Anyone depicting Biden as a fascist is totally bonkers. No fuhrer sits in a rocking chair distributing Werthers Originals.
    Have I said Biden is a fascist?

    No, because he obviously isn’t

    What I am saying is that his team used quite blatant fascist imagery in the staging of that speech about “fascism” which is either some truly bizarre, misguided meta trolling, or a colossal error
    Fascist styling is the norm in US politics. Giant flags everywhere, grandiose classical architecture as backdrop, military might on display. It's disconcerting to European audiences but quite typical over there. Check out the Lincoln Memorial - honest Abe's hands are literally resting on fasces.
    So we’ve gone from “leon is drunk” to “there’s nothing to see” to “ok leon is right it looks quite fascist but it’s normal” - in about 5 minutes. That’s a record even for the slow learners of PB

    And indeed I’m not the first to notice



    However I submit that this Biden imagery outdoes them all. And they do this for a speech when he is denouncing “actual fascism”

    I don’t spy conspiracy. I spy a monumental and really unfortunate cock-up. It probably looked fine in their heads


    Wait.

    An American President giving a speech with a flag behind him...

    What?

    I'm really struggling to see the story here.
    :-)
    From the Troll FAQ (advice to trollers) from 1996:

    " 'Even if this is true......' That represents the perfect response to any troll. Award yourself a Troll Gold Star every time you get one!"
    Even if what is true?

    It's a picture of Biden at a podium, with a flag in the background.
    Seeing as @leon is unable to comment I will make his point for him

    When the writers of the daily beast wanted to colorise an actual American Nazi rally they did this




    When the makers of The Wall wanted to make Bob Geldof look like a classic fascist they did this



    And when the makers of a tv series about Hitler wanted to capture his fascist aesthetic they went for this





    And when Joe Biden decided to make a provocative speech about fascism he went for this





    People making speeches in front of flags isn't Fascism. Fascism is, potentially, in the content of the speeches and the actions of the speaker.

    Things like storming parliament buildings to try and overturn elections.
    Storming parliament buildings doesn't overturn elections.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 43,012
    edited September 2022
    Dynamo said:

    Penddu2 said:

    Russia-Ukraine Red Lines:

    Russia will eventually have to abandon Kerson (west of Dnieper) and that is when a peace deal could be negotiated.

    Russia will want to hold everything it still holds at that point (but will drop its stupider requests such as receiving payment from Ukraine for Russia's war losses).

    Ukraine will want Russia to return to its pre-2014 borders.

    Compromise could be in Russia holding Crimea and its current land in Donbass - but returning other lands in Southern Ukraine and around Kharkiv. Crimea to be demilitarised (except for Sevastopol port) - With UN/Turkish peace-keeping troops brought in to police the border. Ukraine would need to guarantee water & electricity supply - and also demilitarise say 10km from Zaporizia nuclear plant - again use UN/Turkish troops to police.

    Russian sanctions to be dropped in return for reparation payments to Ukraine - say at a 10% levy on gas exports for 10 years

    You can’t reward Russia for invading Ukraine. That just incentivises the next time. They need to be stopped and pushed back.

    There comes a time when you say “Enough! No More!”. That time is now.
    @StillWaters - Will you be telling the Taliban the same thing, Rambo-style? Anyway the west is unlikely to get any say in this matter, any more than Austria-Hungary will.

    @Penddu2 - Or Chinese peacekeepers perhaps but they might not want to do it. Totally agreed that a compromise is needed in which both sides make concessions. Ukraine will want a foot in Sevastopol but they're unlikely to get one, although perhaps a section of the agreement, on a certain face-saving reading, might be interpretable as saying they might possibly get one in the future. Any settlement or "roadmap" would have to address the big question of Ukrainian neutrality or NATO membership or some intermediate status.

    All of this may soon become irrelevant if enough "accidents" happen at strategic points in Karelia etc. - perhaps then in Kaliningrad, Estonia, Netherlands, Britain, Germany, wherever.

    Like me, you obviously want this war to end. But there are those who want WW3.
    "You started it! You invaded Poland Ukraine!"
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 20,506
    edited September 2022
    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Thought experiment. I suggest the best possible outcome for America now is an obviously valid Trump win in 2024. A win that he doesn’t have to enforce with violence

    Would that be deserved? No. Of course not. He’s a maniac and a brute

    However it would mollify the right in the USA. At a crucial moment. Pulling them back from civil war

    And trump is not obviously a bad politician. He has good instincts - like lab leak. The big issue would be US withdrawal from NATO and isolationism - clearly bad for the UK, tho justifiable from a US perspective

    The likely alternative - a win by an aged Biden and a worsening of Wokeness leads, I think, to civil strife of some kind

    Trump has good instincts. His vision (America turning its back on the world, but being so well-armed that nobody can touch them) is really the only way that the long term future looks OK for the USA. If this does not happen, and the US continues on its present course, very big chickens will come home to roost, culpability for Covid amongst them.
    Trump’s basic instincts are the precise opposite of good.
    He has many faults, but a paucity of low cunning isn't one of them.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 17,643
    edited September 2022

    A six bedroom, 3650sqft house in Montclair, New Jersey. Built 1927.

    Less than $1m.

    About 14 miles from Wall Street.

    https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/155-Highland-Ave-Montclair-Twp.-NJ-07042-1913/38680798_zpid/

    What does £850k buy you in Epping, Brentwood, Oxted or Epsom?

    The privilege of living very far away from New Jersey?
    New Jersey is nicer than you think.
    (And probably, in parts, worse too).
  • By the way, one bit of good news: an impending renewal of conflict that seems to have been called off:

    https://interfax.com/newsroom/top-stories/82824/

    Isn't that because Russia has withdrawn its support from Armenia?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,756
    Dynamo said:

    Penddu2 said:

    Russia-Ukraine Red Lines:

    Russia will eventually have to abandon Kerson (west of Dnieper) and that is when a peace deal could be negotiated.

    Russia will want to hold everything it still holds at that point (but will drop its stupider requests such as receiving payment from Ukraine for Russia's war losses).

    Ukraine will want Russia to return to its pre-2014 borders.

    Compromise could be in Russia holding Crimea and its current land in Donbass - but returning other lands in Southern Ukraine and around Kharkiv. Crimea to be demilitarised (except for Sevastopol port) - With UN/Turkish peace-keeping troops brought in to police the border. Ukraine would need to guarantee water & electricity supply - and also demilitarise say 10km from Zaporizia nuclear plant - again use UN/Turkish troops to police.

    Russian sanctions to be dropped in return for reparation payments to Ukraine - say at a 10% levy on gas exports for 10 years

    You can’t reward Russia for invading Ukraine. That just incentivises the next time. They need to be stopped and pushed back.

    There comes a time when you say “Enough! No More!”. That time is now.
    @StillWaters - Will you be telling the Taliban the same thing, Rambo-style? Anyway the west is unlikely to get any say in this matter, any more than Austria-Hungary will.

    @Penddu2 - Or Chinese peacekeepers perhaps but they might not want to do it. Totally agreed that a compromise is needed in which both sides make concessions. Ukraine will want a foot in Sevastopol but they're unlikely to get one, although perhaps a section of the agreement, on a certain face-saving reading, might be interpretable as saying they might possibly get one in the future. Any settlement or "roadmap" would have to address the big question of Ukrainian neutrality or NATO membership or some intermediate status.

    All of this may soon become irrelevant if enough "accidents" happen at strategic points in Karelia etc. - perhaps then in Kaliningrad, Estonia, Netherlands, Britain, Germany, wherever.

    Like me, you obviously want this war to end. But there are those who want WW3.
    I would have thought, to anyone who possesses two brain cells to rub together, that Ukrainian membership of NATO would actually be better for Russia's security than a very angry Ukraine left to its own devices. NATO members to a very great extent have to do what they're told by the US, which last went to war with Russia in 1919. Ukraine outside NATO would probably build up its weapons to take back the territory seized from it by Russia, a la Azerbaijan. And as we've seen Russia are at best an even match for the Ukranians.

    Unfortunately, Vladimir Vladimirovich doesn't have two brain cells, or Kabaeva has sucked them out of him perhaps, or he'd never have invaded to start.
  • mhartmhart Posts: 15

    Sandpit said:

    Zelensky writes a column in the Mail on Sunday today:

    I am proud to say again that during this difficult time the UK has stood shoulder to shoulder with us, as the dearest friend and closest ally. As president, I realise that the policy and actions of the Government embody the public will.

    I am impressed by the number of Ukrainian flags flying high and proudly throughout the United Kingdom to demonstrate solidarity with Ukraine and Ukrainians.

    I am deeply encouraged by the unanimity and cohesion of all political parties in the British Parliament in support of Ukraine. People in the UK should know that every day of struggle for their very existence, Ukrainians are immensely grateful to your country.

    But I also believe in the power of personal leadership. I know it has not been an easy ride for Boris Johnson as he had to deal with many internal challenges. Prioritising support for Ukraine demanded great courage and determination.


    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11177097/VOLODYMYR-ZELENSKY-battles-raged-Boris-Johnson-came-Kyiv-messages-hope.html

    Damage limitation after his wife's disastrous interview.
    You mean this interview...
    https://twitter.com/UnityNewsNet/status/1566118951989514241?s=20&t=feMbIWQ5lK9oyokECKrQNA
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,756

    Dynamo said:

    Penddu2 said:

    Russia-Ukraine Red Lines:

    Russia will eventually have to abandon Kerson (west of Dnieper) and that is when a peace deal could be negotiated.

    Russia will want to hold everything it still holds at that point (but will drop its stupider requests such as receiving payment from Ukraine for Russia's war losses).

    Ukraine will want Russia to return to its pre-2014 borders.

    Compromise could be in Russia holding Crimea and its current land in Donbass - but returning other lands in Southern Ukraine and around Kharkiv. Crimea to be demilitarised (except for Sevastopol port) - With UN/Turkish peace-keeping troops brought in to police the border. Ukraine would need to guarantee water & electricity supply - and also demilitarise say 10km from Zaporizia nuclear plant - again use UN/Turkish troops to police.

    Russian sanctions to be dropped in return for reparation payments to Ukraine - say at a 10% levy on gas exports for 10 years

    You can’t reward Russia for invading Ukraine. That just incentivises the next time. They need to be stopped and pushed back.

    There comes a time when you say “Enough! No More!”. That time is now.
    @StillWaters - Will you be telling the Taliban the same thing, Rambo-style? Anyway the west is unlikely to get any say in this matter, any more than Austria-Hungary will.

    @Penddu2 - Or Chinese peacekeepers perhaps but they might not want to do it. Totally agreed that a compromise is needed in which both sides make concessions. Ukraine will want a foot in Sevastopol but they're unlikely to get one, although perhaps a section of the agreement, on a certain face-saving reading, might be interpretable as saying they might possibly get one in the future. Any settlement or "roadmap" would have to address the big question of Ukrainian neutrality or NATO membership or some intermediate status.

    All of this may soon become irrelevant if enough "accidents" happen at strategic points in Karelia etc. - perhaps then in Kaliningrad, Estonia, Netherlands, Britain, Germany, wherever.

    Like me, you obviously want this war to end. But there are those who want WW3.
    "You started it! You invaded Poland Ukraine!"
    FFS don't give them any more ideas.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,977
    edited September 2022

    Let’s imagine two families.

    Family 1 (the Albions) lives in Oxted, Surrey.
    Father has a project management job in the City and Mother is a teacher. Two kids. Total household income £160k.

    Family 2 (the Yankovics) lives in Montclair, New Jersey. Same jobs, but total household income is $260k.

    Family 1 net is £104k after taxes.
    Family 2 net is $190k.

    Family 1 pays £4k council tax
    Family 2 pays $20k property tax

    So now Family 1 has £100k and Family 2 has $170k.

    Cost of living is difficult to compare.
    Food is cheaper in Oxted, but commuting and energy bills are probably cheaper in Montclair.
    For the sake of argument let’s assume it’s a wash.

    Family 1 has to settle for a semi-detached 1960s house of 1700sqft.

    https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/126437891#/?channel=RES_BUY

    So Family 2 in Montclair has something like 1/3 more discretionary spending AND they get more than double the space.

    https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/155-Highland-Ave-Montclair-NJ-07042/38680798_zpid/

    We seem to have created a situation where a disproportionately large portion of personal wealth is in our homes if we're lucky enough to own one, and a disproportionately large portion of personal income is needed to rent one if we aren't.

    Not good but hard to change because how we 'do' property is deeply embedded in our culture, economy and politics.
  • carnforth said:

    A six bedroom, 3650sqft house in Montclair, New Jersey. Built 1927.

    Less than $1m.

    About 14 miles from Wall Street.

    https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/155-Highland-Ave-Montclair-Twp.-NJ-07042-1913/38680798_zpid/

    What does £850k buy you in Epping, Brentwood, Oxted or Epsom?

    Did you scroll past the first two photoshop pictures to see its current state? Needs another $1m of work. It may also have tens or hundreds of thousands of back-taxes due.
    Lol.

    Ok fair enough, I did not.

    But I encourage you to look around other properties in Montclair, New Jersey, which I chose because it’s known as a trendy place to move to when you have kids.

    Anyway my contention is:

    1. London and the SE are not densely populated compared to New York and it’s surrounds.

    2. Somehow, greater New York allows people to aspire to - and live - the middle class dream, which seems thoroughly dead in the South East.

    Greater London 5,701 per sq. km.
    New York Metropolitan area 2,053 per sq. km.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_London
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_metropolitan_area
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited September 2022
    Starting to get whiff of depseration from Republican strategists

    https://twitter.com/PatrickRuffini/status/1566452440328724481

    Patrick Ruffini
    @PatrickRuffini
    Trying to make the election about Trump isn’t going to work out how Biden thinks. Voters are *exhausted* by the media’s Trump obsession. He rarely comes up organically in focus groups or in survey verbatims.


    Patric Ruffini runs Echelon Insights, a polling firm that's really a GOP messaging shop.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 15,154
    MattW said:

    mhart said:

    Dynamo said:

    mhart said:

    rkrkrk said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    A six bedroom, 3650sqft house in Montclair, New Jersey. Built 1927.

    Less than $1m.

    About 14 miles from Wall Street.

    https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/155-Highland-Ave-Montclair-Twp.-NJ-07042-1913/38680798_zpid/

    What does £850k buy you in Epping, Brentwood, Oxted or Epsom?

    I know that 600k will just about get you an unmodernised 2 bed semi in Epping Forest.
    I'm from New Jersey. You also have to look at this in the context that property taxes there (the equivalent of council tax) are incredibly high.

    The interent says the average property tax in Montclair is around twenty grand a year. That sounds very plausible.
    Exactly.

    If you decide that taxing primary residences cannot be done... then don't be surprised when people invest more and more into buying a house! If you then offer subsidies and help to people buying houses, prices will go even higher.

    Switching to US-style property taxes or a land value tax would help significantly with the housing crisis by encouraging better use of land, more density of housing, people to downsize earlier.
    If interest rates rocket higher causing house prices to crash the housing crisis is sorted...pain for those with a mortgage but probably the only way this is sorted out
    What happens to the mortgage debt in your scenario, currently at more than £1trn? How much of it do the banks write off, and what happens then?

    The only reason house prices are so high (except for properties in Eaton Square etc.) is because the banks have been allowed by the government to lend so much, and they have influenced minds so that many idiots think it's sensible to borrow as much as the banks will lend them. That is not so in many other countries. For example in Sweden, I can't remember the exact figure but I was told that a typical family who could get a loan for SEK x to buy a house would only take a out a loan for about 50% of SEK x.

    Compare with Ireland. I don't think you can just apply a fixed multiplier to everything and say a housing market crash in Britain would have all the same features as in Ireland but everything would be multiplied by y. Retail banking would probably collapse all in one week, and it wouldn't just be those with mortgage-backed debt who would be hit.

    We are close to a definition of parasitism here.
    Well the govt would intervene of course...all roads currently sadly lead to inflation
    The mortgage debt thing is a bit of a red herring imo.

    UK house prices are up 20-25% in 2 years, so there is a good deal of headroom for prices to fall without much negative equity. That then depends on your definition of "crash".

    The house price 'collapse' in the GFC was around 20% on average.

    In the main the only people potentially seriously impacted wrt to mortgages are ultra-high LTVs from the last year or so, and since we move house rarely at present on average, that is a tiny % of the population plus very recent FTBs.

    On mortgage payments, something north of 90% have been fixed rate recently, so that will work its way out as fixed payment contracts come to and end.
    That house comparison is an interesting one - the US house seems to be in the middle of a renovation project, and has had it's asking price reduced from $1.2m to $999k. I take GW's point, however.

    Plus the photographs show plaster having fallen off the ceilings. So needs money spending.

    Reaching for a very vague comparison, if the normal property taxes in Kent went up from £4k to say £15k a year, presumably that would theoretically reduce the value by something like the money to purchase a £11k a year annuity. I make that about 200k (?), probably plus or minus quite a large tolerance.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 1,477
    Stinks when a role model turns out to be anything but:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-62786614

    “Gareth Thomas says ex-partner never asked about his HIV status”
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 105,491
    edited September 2022
    ydoethur said:

    Dynamo said:

    Penddu2 said:

    Russia-Ukraine Red Lines:

    Russia will eventually have to abandon Kerson (west of Dnieper) and that is when a peace deal could be negotiated.

    Russia will want to hold everything it still holds at that point (but will drop its stupider requests such as receiving payment from Ukraine for Russia's war losses).

    Ukraine will want Russia to return to its pre-2014 borders.

    Compromise could be in Russia holding Crimea and its current land in Donbass - but returning other lands in Southern Ukraine and around Kharkiv. Crimea to be demilitarised (except for Sevastopol port) - With UN/Turkish peace-keeping troops brought in to police the border. Ukraine would need to guarantee water & electricity supply - and also demilitarise say 10km from Zaporizia nuclear plant - again use UN/Turkish troops to police.

    Russian sanctions to be dropped in return for reparation payments to Ukraine - say at a 10% levy on gas exports for 10 years

    You can’t reward Russia for invading Ukraine. That just incentivises the next time. They need to be stopped and pushed back.

    There comes a time when you say “Enough! No More!”. That time is now.
    @StillWaters - Will you be telling the Taliban the same thing, Rambo-style? Anyway the west is unlikely to get any say in this matter, any more than Austria-Hungary will.

    @Penddu2 - Or Chinese peacekeepers perhaps but they might not want to do it. Totally agreed that a compromise is needed in which both sides make concessions. Ukraine will want a foot in Sevastopol but they're unlikely to get one, although perhaps a section of the agreement, on a certain face-saving reading, might be interpretable as saying they might possibly get one in the future. Any settlement or "roadmap" would have to address the big question of Ukrainian neutrality or NATO membership or some intermediate status.

    All of this may soon become irrelevant if enough "accidents" happen at strategic points in Karelia etc. - perhaps then in Kaliningrad, Estonia, Netherlands, Britain, Germany, wherever.

    Like me, you obviously want this war to end. But there are those who want WW3.
    I would have thought, to anyone who possesses two brain cells to rub together, that Ukrainian membership of NATO would actually be better for Russia's security than a very angry Ukraine left to its own devices. NATO members to a very great extent have to do what they're told by the US, which last went to war with Russia in 1919. Ukraine outside NATO would probably build up its weapons to take back the territory seized from it by Russia, a la Azerbaijan. And as we've seen Russia are at best an even match for the Ukranians.

    Unfortunately, Vladimir Vladimirovich doesn't have two brain cells, or Kabaeva has sucked them out of him perhaps, or he'd never have invaded to start.
    I have a piece in the pipeline comparing the further invasion of Ukraine to Japanese attack on Pearl Harbour.

    Is Putin the new Hirohito/Isoroku Yamamoto?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 17,643
    edited September 2022

    carnforth said:

    A six bedroom, 3650sqft house in Montclair, New Jersey. Built 1927.

    Less than $1m.

    About 14 miles from Wall Street.

    https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/155-Highland-Ave-Montclair-Twp.-NJ-07042-1913/38680798_zpid/

    What does £850k buy you in Epping, Brentwood, Oxted or Epsom?

    Did you scroll past the first two photoshop pictures to see its current state? Needs another $1m of work. It may also have tens or hundreds of thousands of back-taxes due.
    Lol.

    Ok fair enough, I did not.

    But I encourage you to look around other properties in Montclair, New Jersey, which I chose because it’s known as a trendy place to move to when you have kids.

    Anyway my contention is:

    1. London and the SE are not densely populated compared to New York and it’s surrounds.

    2. Somehow, greater New York allows people to aspire to - and live - the middle class dream, which seems thoroughly dead in the South East.

    Greater London 5,701 per sq. km.
    New York Metropolitan area 2,053 per sq. km.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_London
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_metropolitan_area
    You are not comparing like with like.
    At all.
  • Dynamo said:

    Penddu2 said:

    Russia-Ukraine Red Lines:

    Russia will eventually have to abandon Kerson (west of Dnieper) and that is when a peace deal could be negotiated.

    Russia will want to hold everything it still holds at that point (but will drop its stupider requests such as receiving payment from Ukraine for Russia's war losses).

    Ukraine will want Russia to return to its pre-2014 borders.

    Compromise could be in Russia holding Crimea and its current land in Donbass - but returning other lands in Southern Ukraine and around Kharkiv. Crimea to be demilitarised (except for Sevastopol port) - With UN/Turkish peace-keeping troops brought in to police the border. Ukraine would need to guarantee water & electricity supply - and also demilitarise say 10km from Zaporizia nuclear plant - again use UN/Turkish troops to police.

    Russian sanctions to be dropped in return for reparation payments to Ukraine - say at a 10% levy on gas exports for 10 years

    You can’t reward Russia for invading Ukraine. That just incentivises the next time. They need to be stopped and pushed back.

    There comes a time when you say “Enough! No More!”. That time is now.
    @StillWaters - Will you be telling the Taliban the same thing, Rambo-style? Anyway the west is unlikely to get any say in this matter, any more than Austria-Hungary will.

    @Penddu2 - Or Chinese peacekeepers perhaps but they might not want to do it. Totally agreed that a compromise is needed in which both sides make concessions. Ukraine will want a foot in Sevastopol but they're unlikely to get one, although perhaps a section of the agreement, on a certain face-saving reading, might be interpretable as saying they might possibly get one in the future. Any settlement or "roadmap" would have to address the big question of Ukrainian neutrality or NATO membership or some intermediate status.

    All of this may soon become irrelevant if enough "accidents" happen at strategic points in Karelia etc. - perhaps then in Kaliningrad, Estonia, Netherlands, Britain, Germany, wherever.

    Like me, you obviously want this war to end. But there are those who want WW3.
    What will help this war end is for the Russian army on the right bank of the Dnieper to surrender and march into captivity. Or, if it refuses, to be pushed up against the Dnieper and destroyed in detail. And then the ZSU marches on.

    Russia needs to suffer military defeat before terms are considered.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 32,152
    Nigelb said:

    @visegrad24
    Another scandalous statement on Ukraine by Macron.

    He basically calls Central Eastern European nations such as Czechia, the Baltic states and Poland the “most war-mongering countries that risk of extending the conflict.”

    He says Brussels can’t let them set EU policies on Russia


    https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1566456544455262210

    Isn’t the most war-mongering country the one that actually started the war ?
    By, you know, invading its neighbour.

    No, war mongering is existing in an inconvenient or annoying manner…..

    Right, let’s go de-Nazify France.
  • carnforth said:

    Stinks when a role model turns out to be anything but:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-62786614

    “Gareth Thomas says ex-partner never asked about his HIV status”

    If we had a cancel culture then Gareth Thomas would be cancelled away in prison.

    I've read of people who have gone to prison for the shit Thomas has done there.
  • TheKitchenCabinetTheKitchenCabinet Posts: 1,224
    edited September 2022

    Leon said:

    Biden’s team have absolutely used Fascist tropes in the staging of that speech. Which, given that it was a speech denouncing fascist republicans - and using the F word - is mind boggling and deeply strange

    The 21st century doesn’t get any more normal

    I'm not into flag-shagging, but if fascists had never done anything but that, we'd be quite tolerant of fascism. Biden's speech does not criticise Trump for excessive use of flags, after all. You mistake the decor (which as OLB notes is not unusual in the US) for the cohtent.
    One mistake was the positioning of US Marines behind Biden. It's one thing doing such a speech when you are coming at it from a party political stance. It's another when you seem to be implying you are speaking as the Commander in Chief. Biden's speech was clearly political - when you claim that a large part of the opposition voting bloc is (semi)-fascist, it clearly is.

    Easy way to see how wrong this is to switch the tables, imagine Trump doing this in the same setting / with the same backdrop of the Marines, and imagine the reaction. The consensus would be Trump was dangerously flirting with dictatorship.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,977
    edited September 2022
    Nigelb said:

    The Clinton obsession is beginning to look beyond odd.

    So that we’re clear, they’re chanting “lock her up” for mishandling classified documents. At a Trump rally. In front of Donald Trump.
    https://twitter.com/briantylercohen/status/1566215514648506370

    And speaking of Trump obsessions, Obama's just won an Emmy - that has gotta hurt!
  • TazTaz Posts: 6,594
    mhart said:

    Sandpit said:

    Zelensky writes a column in the Mail on Sunday today:

    I am proud to say again that during this difficult time the UK has stood shoulder to shoulder with us, as the dearest friend and closest ally. As president, I realise that the policy and actions of the Government embody the public will.

    I am impressed by the number of Ukrainian flags flying high and proudly throughout the United Kingdom to demonstrate solidarity with Ukraine and Ukrainians.

    I am deeply encouraged by the unanimity and cohesion of all political parties in the British Parliament in support of Ukraine. People in the UK should know that every day of struggle for their very existence, Ukrainians are immensely grateful to your country.

    But I also believe in the power of personal leadership. I know it has not been an easy ride for Boris Johnson as he had to deal with many internal challenges. Prioritising support for Ukraine demanded great courage and determination.


    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11177097/VOLODYMYR-ZELENSKY-battles-raged-Boris-Johnson-came-Kyiv-messages-hope.html

    Damage limitation after his wife's disastrous interview.
    You mean this interview...
    https://twitter.com/UnityNewsNet/status/1566118951989514241?s=20&t=feMbIWQ5lK9oyokECKrQNA
    I can’t say I’ve heard of that news network but a look at their Twitter feed sees a pinned tweet about GB news which seems to be little more than a conspiracy theory.

    https://twitter.com/UnityNewsNet/status/1560620792362127361?s=20&t=dfKiDzEfcs0EzzK7j51sUQ
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594
    edited September 2022
    mhart said:

    Leon said:

    Thought experiment. I suggest the best possible outcome for America now is an obviously valid Trump win in 2024. A win that he doesn’t have to enforce with violence

    Would that be deserved? No. Of course not. He’s a maniac and a brute

    However it would mollify the right in the USA. At a crucial moment. Pulling them back from civil war

    And trump is not obviously a bad politician. He has good instincts - like lab leak. The big issue would be US withdrawal from NATO and isolationism - clearly bad for the UK, tho justifiable from a US perspective

    The likely alternative - a win by an aged Biden and a worsening of Wokeness leads, I think, to civil strife of some kind

    Trump has good instincts. His vision (America turning its back on the world, but being so well-armed that nobody can touch them) is really the only way that the long term future looks OK for the USA. If this does not happen, and the US continues on its present course, very big chickens will come home to roost, culpability for Covid amongst them.
    Problem is if Trump wins the woke left go crazy and you might have civil war anyway
    Mention of the American Civil War is interesting. Did Abraham Lincoln ever speak about the Confederacy the way Biden speaks about MAGA republicans? as if they were barely human?

    In case anybody needs reminding, that's the slave owning and highly racist Confederacy, the Confederacy that was killing Lincoln's northern troops in droves?

    The question here surely is how what we might term 'acceptable' republicans reacted to that Biden's speech. The Megan McCains, the Ben Shapiros, the Kevin McCarthys.

    The acceptables detested Biden's speech.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,977

    mhart said:

    kinabalu said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Is this deliberate? Some kind of bizarre, trolling joke? If so that is criminally irresponsible when America is so volatile. Or is Biden trying to say “I’m the real fascist”. But why would he do that?

    I suspect it is just an enormous error




    Anyone depicting Biden as a fascist is totally bonkers. No fuhrer sits in a rocking chair distributing Werthers Originals.
    Have I said Biden is a fascist?

    No, because he obviously isn’t

    What I am saying is that his team used quite blatant fascist imagery in the staging of that speech about “fascism” which is either some truly bizarre, misguided meta trolling, or a colossal error
    Fascist styling is the norm in US politics. Giant flags everywhere, grandiose classical architecture as backdrop, military might on display. It's disconcerting to European audiences but quite typical over there. Check out the Lincoln Memorial - honest Abe's hands are literally resting on fasces.
    So we’ve gone from “leon is drunk” to “there’s nothing to see” to “ok leon is right it looks quite fascist but it’s normal” - in about 5 minutes. That’s a record even for the slow learners of PB

    And indeed I’m not the first to notice



    However I submit that this Biden imagery outdoes them all. And they do this for a speech when he is denouncing “actual fascism”

    I don’t spy conspiracy. I spy a monumental and really unfortunate cock-up. It probably looked fine in their heads


    Wait.

    An American President giving a speech with a flag behind him...

    What?

    I'm really struggling to see the story here.
    So is Leon, hence the backtracking.
    We're getting the benefit of some puerile talking point from Truth Social ... joy abounds.
    Not just truth social. This is Peter Mcgahan on twitter

    https://twitter.com/peter_mcgahan/status/1565739598579384320?s=20&t=bCcuRjL4ed4936uk_cwwfg
    Who the fuck is Peter McGahan?
    The Depeche guy isn't it?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,756

    ydoethur said:

    Dynamo said:

    Penddu2 said:

    Russia-Ukraine Red Lines:

    Russia will eventually have to abandon Kerson (west of Dnieper) and that is when a peace deal could be negotiated.

    Russia will want to hold everything it still holds at that point (but will drop its stupider requests such as receiving payment from Ukraine for Russia's war losses).

    Ukraine will want Russia to return to its pre-2014 borders.

    Compromise could be in Russia holding Crimea and its current land in Donbass - but returning other lands in Southern Ukraine and around Kharkiv. Crimea to be demilitarised (except for Sevastopol port) - With UN/Turkish peace-keeping troops brought in to police the border. Ukraine would need to guarantee water & electricity supply - and also demilitarise say 10km from Zaporizia nuclear plant - again use UN/Turkish troops to police.

    Russian sanctions to be dropped in return for reparation payments to Ukraine - say at a 10% levy on gas exports for 10 years

    You can’t reward Russia for invading Ukraine. That just incentivises the next time. They need to be stopped and pushed back.

    There comes a time when you say “Enough! No More!”. That time is now.
    @StillWaters - Will you be telling the Taliban the same thing, Rambo-style? Anyway the west is unlikely to get any say in this matter, any more than Austria-Hungary will.

    @Penddu2 - Or Chinese peacekeepers perhaps but they might not want to do it. Totally agreed that a compromise is needed in which both sides make concessions. Ukraine will want a foot in Sevastopol but they're unlikely to get one, although perhaps a section of the agreement, on a certain face-saving reading, might be interpretable as saying they might possibly get one in the future. Any settlement or "roadmap" would have to address the big question of Ukrainian neutrality or NATO membership or some intermediate status.

    All of this may soon become irrelevant if enough "accidents" happen at strategic points in Karelia etc. - perhaps then in Kaliningrad, Estonia, Netherlands, Britain, Germany, wherever.

    Like me, you obviously want this war to end. But there are those who want WW3.
    I would have thought, to anyone who possesses two brain cells to rub together, that Ukrainian membership of NATO would actually be better for Russia's security than a very angry Ukraine left to its own devices. NATO members to a very great extent have to do what they're told by the US, which last went to war with Russia in 1919. Ukraine outside NATO would probably build up its weapons to take back the territory seized from it by Russia, a la Azerbaijan. And as we've seen Russia are at best an even match for the Ukranians.

    Unfortunately, Vladimir Vladimirovich doesn't have two brain cells, or Kabaeva has sucked them out of him perhaps, or he'd never have invaded to start.
    I have a piece in the pipeline comparing the further invasion of Ukraine to Japanese attack on Pearl Harbour.

    Is Putin the new Hirohito/Isoroku Yamamoto?
    Yamamoto at least had strong reservations about attacking the Americans, although as a good military man he followed orders. Surely Hideki Tojo would be a better parallel?
  • MattW said:

    MattW said:

    mhart said:

    Dynamo said:

    mhart said:

    rkrkrk said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    A six bedroom, 3650sqft house in Montclair, New Jersey. Built 1927.

    Less than $1m.

    About 14 miles from Wall Street.

    https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/155-Highland-Ave-Montclair-Twp.-NJ-07042-1913/38680798_zpid/

    What does £850k buy you in Epping, Brentwood, Oxted or Epsom?

    I know that 600k will just about get you an unmodernised 2 bed semi in Epping Forest.
    I'm from New Jersey. You also have to look at this in the context that property taxes there (the equivalent of council tax) are incredibly high.

    The interent says the average property tax in Montclair is around twenty grand a year. That sounds very plausible.
    Exactly.

    If you decide that taxing primary residences cannot be done... then don't be surprised when people invest more and more into buying a house! If you then offer subsidies and help to people buying houses, prices will go even higher.

    Switching to US-style property taxes or a land value tax would help significantly with the housing crisis by encouraging better use of land, more density of housing, people to downsize earlier.
    If interest rates rocket higher causing house prices to crash the housing crisis is sorted...pain for those with a mortgage but probably the only way this is sorted out
    What happens to the mortgage debt in your scenario, currently at more than £1trn? How much of it do the banks write off, and what happens then?

    The only reason house prices are so high (except for properties in Eaton Square etc.) is because the banks have been allowed by the government to lend so much, and they have influenced minds so that many idiots think it's sensible to borrow as much as the banks will lend them. That is not so in many other countries. For example in Sweden, I can't remember the exact figure but I was told that a typical family who could get a loan for SEK x to buy a house would only take a out a loan for about 50% of SEK x.

    Compare with Ireland. I don't think you can just apply a fixed multiplier to everything and say a housing market crash in Britain would have all the same features as in Ireland but everything would be multiplied by y. Retail banking would probably collapse all in one week, and it wouldn't just be those with mortgage-backed debt who would be hit.

    We are close to a definition of parasitism here.
    Well the govt would intervene of course...all roads currently sadly lead to inflation
    The mortgage debt thing is a bit of a red herring imo.

    UK house prices are up 20-25% in 2 years, so there is a good deal of headroom for prices to fall without much negative equity. That then depends on your definition of "crash".

    The house price 'collapse' in the GFC was around 20% on average.

    In the main the only people potentially seriously impacted wrt to mortgages are ultra-high LTVs from the last year or so, and since we move house rarely at present on average, that is a tiny % of the population plus very recent FTBs.

    On mortgage payments, something north of 90% have been fixed rate recently, so that will work its way out as fixed payment contracts come to and end.
    That house comparison is an interesting one - the US house seems to be in the middle of a renovation project, and has had it's asking price reduced from $1.2m to $999k. I take GW's point, however.

    Plus the photographs show plaster having fallen off the ceilings. So needs money spending.

    Reaching for a very vague comparison, if the normal property taxes in Kent went up from £4k to say £15k a year, presumably that would theoretically reduce the value by something like the money to purchase a £11k a year annuity. I make that about 200k (?), probably plus or minus quite a large tolerance.
    Interesting.

    US interest rates are of course higher too, which is going to reduce US prices a tad.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 32,152

    sylv said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Dynamo said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Is this deliberate? Some kind of bizarre, trolling joke? If so that is criminally irresponsible when America is so volatile. Or is Biden trying to say “I’m the real fascist”. But why would he do that?

    I suspect it is just an enormous error




    Anyone depicting Biden as a fascist is totally bonkers. No fuhrer sits in a rocking chair distributing Werthers Originals.
    Have I said Biden is a fascist?

    No, because he obviously isn’t

    What I am saying is that his team used quite blatant fascist imagery in the staging of that speech about “fascism” which is either some truly bizarre, misguided meta trolling, or a colossal error
    Fascist styling is the norm in US politics. Giant flags everywhere, grandiose classical architecture as backdrop, military might on display. It's disconcerting to European audiences but quite typical over there. Check out the Lincoln Memorial - honest Abe's hands are literally resting on fasces.
    So we’ve gone from “leon is drunk” to “there’s nothing to see” to “ok leon is right it looks quite fascist but it’s normal” - in about 5 minutes. That’s a record even for the slow learners of PB

    And indeed I’m not the first to notice



    However I submit that this Biden imagery outdoes them all. And they do this for a speech when he is denouncing “actual fascism”

    I don’t spy conspiracy. I spy a monumental and really unfortunate cock-up. It probably looked fine in their heads


    Wait.

    An American President giving a speech with a flag behind him...

    What?

    I'm really struggling to see the story here.
    :-)
    From the Troll FAQ (advice to trollers) from 1996:

    " 'Even if this is true......' That represents the perfect response to any troll. Award yourself a Troll Gold Star every time you get one!"
    Even if what is true?

    It's a picture of Biden at a podium, with a flag in the background.
    Seeing as @leon is unable to comment I will make his point for him

    When the writers of the daily beast wanted to colorise an actual American Nazi rally they did this




    When the makers of The Wall wanted to make Bob Geldof look like a classic fascist they did this



    And when the makers of a tv series about Hitler wanted to capture his fascist aesthetic they went for this





    And when Joe Biden decided to make a provocative speech about fascism he went for this





    People making speeches in front of flags isn't Fascism. Fascism is, potentially, in the content of the speeches and the actions of the speaker.

    Things like storming parliament buildings to try and overturn elections.
    Storming parliament buildings doesn't overturn elections.
    When you are storming building to hunt down elected officials and kill them, so that they’d successors will overturn the election, then yes, they do.
  • kinabalu said:

    mhart said:

    kinabalu said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Is this deliberate? Some kind of bizarre, trolling joke? If so that is criminally irresponsible when America is so volatile. Or is Biden trying to say “I’m the real fascist”. But why would he do that?

    I suspect it is just an enormous error




    Anyone depicting Biden as a fascist is totally bonkers. No fuhrer sits in a rocking chair distributing Werthers Originals.
    Have I said Biden is a fascist?

    No, because he obviously isn’t

    What I am saying is that his team used quite blatant fascist imagery in the staging of that speech about “fascism” which is either some truly bizarre, misguided meta trolling, or a colossal error
    Fascist styling is the norm in US politics. Giant flags everywhere, grandiose classical architecture as backdrop, military might on display. It's disconcerting to European audiences but quite typical over there. Check out the Lincoln Memorial - honest Abe's hands are literally resting on fasces.
    So we’ve gone from “leon is drunk” to “there’s nothing to see” to “ok leon is right it looks quite fascist but it’s normal” - in about 5 minutes. That’s a record even for the slow learners of PB

    And indeed I’m not the first to notice



    However I submit that this Biden imagery outdoes them all. And they do this for a speech when he is denouncing “actual fascism”

    I don’t spy conspiracy. I spy a monumental and really unfortunate cock-up. It probably looked fine in their heads


    Wait.

    An American President giving a speech with a flag behind him...

    What?

    I'm really struggling to see the story here.
    So is Leon, hence the backtracking.
    We're getting the benefit of some puerile talking point from Truth Social ... joy abounds.
    Not just truth social. This is Peter Mcgahan on twitter

    https://twitter.com/peter_mcgahan/status/1565739598579384320?s=20&t=bCcuRjL4ed4936uk_cwwfg
    Who the fuck is Peter McGahan?
    The Depeche guy isn't it?
    Nah, that's Dave Gahan :lol:
  • TazTaz Posts: 6,594

    carnforth said:

    Stinks when a role model turns out to be anything but:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-62786614

    “Gareth Thomas says ex-partner never asked about his HIV status”

    If we had a cancel culture then Gareth Thomas would be cancelled away in prison.

    I've read of people who have gone to prison for the shit Thomas has done there.
    Several have.

    https://www.itv.com/news/tyne-tees/2012-10-19/man-who-infected-partner-with-hiv-found-guilty-of-gbh
  • ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Dynamo said:

    Penddu2 said:

    Russia-Ukraine Red Lines:

    Russia will eventually have to abandon Kerson (west of Dnieper) and that is when a peace deal could be negotiated.

    Russia will want to hold everything it still holds at that point (but will drop its stupider requests such as receiving payment from Ukraine for Russia's war losses).

    Ukraine will want Russia to return to its pre-2014 borders.

    Compromise could be in Russia holding Crimea and its current land in Donbass - but returning other lands in Southern Ukraine and around Kharkiv. Crimea to be demilitarised (except for Sevastopol port) - With UN/Turkish peace-keeping troops brought in to police the border. Ukraine would need to guarantee water & electricity supply - and also demilitarise say 10km from Zaporizia nuclear plant - again use UN/Turkish troops to police.

    Russian sanctions to be dropped in return for reparation payments to Ukraine - say at a 10% levy on gas exports for 10 years

    You can’t reward Russia for invading Ukraine. That just incentivises the next time. They need to be stopped and pushed back.

    There comes a time when you say “Enough! No More!”. That time is now.
    @StillWaters - Will you be telling the Taliban the same thing, Rambo-style? Anyway the west is unlikely to get any say in this matter, any more than Austria-Hungary will.

    @Penddu2 - Or Chinese peacekeepers perhaps but they might not want to do it. Totally agreed that a compromise is needed in which both sides make concessions. Ukraine will want a foot in Sevastopol but they're unlikely to get one, although perhaps a section of the agreement, on a certain face-saving reading, might be interpretable as saying they might possibly get one in the future. Any settlement or "roadmap" would have to address the big question of Ukrainian neutrality or NATO membership or some intermediate status.

    All of this may soon become irrelevant if enough "accidents" happen at strategic points in Karelia etc. - perhaps then in Kaliningrad, Estonia, Netherlands, Britain, Germany, wherever.

    Like me, you obviously want this war to end. But there are those who want WW3.
    I would have thought, to anyone who possesses two brain cells to rub together, that Ukrainian membership of NATO would actually be better for Russia's security than a very angry Ukraine left to its own devices. NATO members to a very great extent have to do what they're told by the US, which last went to war with Russia in 1919. Ukraine outside NATO would probably build up its weapons to take back the territory seized from it by Russia, a la Azerbaijan. And as we've seen Russia are at best an even match for the Ukranians.

    Unfortunately, Vladimir Vladimirovich doesn't have two brain cells, or Kabaeva has sucked them out of him perhaps, or he'd never have invaded to start.
    I have a piece in the pipeline comparing the further invasion of Ukraine to Japanese attack on Pearl Harbour.

    Is Putin the new Hirohito/Isoroku Yamamoto?
    Yamamoto at least had strong reservations about attacking the Americans, although as a good military man he followed orders. Surely Hideki Tojo would be a better parallel?
    Yeah, he is, as I said it is a work in progress.

    As an aside, what would have happened if MacArthur had not helped covering up Hirohito's complicity and Hirohito was executed by the Yanks?
  • carnforth said:

    A six bedroom, 3650sqft house in Montclair, New Jersey. Built 1927.

    Less than $1m.

    About 14 miles from Wall Street.

    https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/155-Highland-Ave-Montclair-Twp.-NJ-07042-1913/38680798_zpid/

    What does £850k buy you in Epping, Brentwood, Oxted or Epsom?

    Did you scroll past the first two photoshop pictures to see its current state? Needs another $1m of work. It may also have tens or hundreds of thousands of back-taxes due.
    Lol.

    Ok fair enough, I did not.

    But I encourage you to look around other properties in Montclair, New Jersey, which I chose because it’s known as a trendy place to move to when you have kids.

    Anyway my contention is:

    1. London and the SE are not densely populated compared to New York and it’s surrounds.

    2. Somehow, greater New York allows people to aspire to - and live - the middle class dream, which seems thoroughly dead in the South East.

    Greater London 5,701 per sq. km.
    New York Metropolitan area 2,053 per sq. km.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_London
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_metropolitan_area
    You are not comparing like with like.
    At all.
    Enlighten us then!
  • A six bedroom, 3650sqft house in Montclair, New Jersey. Built 1927.

    Less than $1m.

    About 14 miles from Wall Street.

    https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/155-Highland-Ave-Montclair-Twp.-NJ-07042-1913/38680798_zpid/

    What does £850k buy you in Epping, Brentwood, Oxted or Epsom?

    Council tax is often less than the US equivalent aiui (another fop to the rich?).

    ETA London suburbs around £2 million for 3,000+ square feet?
    I think it's quite complicated in the US. They have 3 levels of tax normally, federal, state and county/City. It depends who's providing the services.
    Yes. PLUS fact that different states have totally different mixes of state & local taxes compared with other states.

    For example, Oregon has a state income tax but zero sales taxes, whereas just across the Columbia River, Washington has sales taxes but zero state income tax.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,268
    Penddu2 said:

    Russia-Ukraine Red Lines:

    Russia will eventually have to abandon Kerson (west of Dnieper) and that is when a peace deal could be negotiated.

    Russia will want to hold everything it still holds at that point (but will drop its stupider requests such as receiving payment from Ukraine for Russia's war losses).

    Ukraine will want Russia to return to its pre-2014 borders.

    Compromise could be in Russia holding Crimea and its current land in Donbass - but returning other lands in Southern Ukraine and around Kharkiv. Crimea to be demilitarised (except for Sevastopol port) - With UN/Turkish peace-keeping troops brought in to police the border. Ukraine would need to guarantee water & electricity supply - and also demilitarise say 10km from Zaporizia nuclear plant - again use UN/Turkish troops to police.

    Russian sanctions to be dropped in return for reparation payments to Ukraine - say at a 10% levy on gas exports for 10 years

    Crimea without water is a shit piece of real estate.

    Kherson controls Crimea's water.

    Putin losing Crimea would be disastrous for him. It would also be some recompense to Ukraine for the damage done elsewhere in that country.

    There are at last some positive signs for Ukraine as the two meat-grinders clash.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 20,052

    Leon said:

    Biden’s team have absolutely used Fascist tropes in the staging of that speech. Which, given that it was a speech denouncing fascist republicans - and using the F word - is mind boggling and deeply strange

    The 21st century doesn’t get any more normal

    I'm not into flag-shagging, but if fascists had never done anything but that, we'd be quite tolerant of fascism. Biden's speech does not criticise Trump for excessive use of flags, after all. You mistake the decor (which as OLB notes is not unusual in the US) for the cohtent.
    One mistake was the positioning of US Marines behind Biden. It's one thing doing such a speech when you are coming at it from a party political stance. It's another when you seem to be implying you are speaking as the Commander in Chief. Biden's speech was clearly political - when you claim that a large part of the opposition voting bloc is (semi)-fascist, it clearly is.

    Easy way to see how wrong this is to switch the tables, imagine Trump doing this in the same setting / with the same backdrop of the Marines, and imagine the reaction. The consensus would be Trump was dangerously flirting with dictatorship.
    It's an election year, so of course they're going to object to anything he says. Personally I'm OK with that level of fighting fire with fire, in the same way that I don't really mind Starmer wrapping himself in Union Jacks - if that's the most right-wing thing he feels he has to do, fine. But this thoughtful piece by an anti-Trump republican did make me think. It's a good read, anyway. and the distinction between LOTR and GoT is spot on.

    https://frenchpress.thedispatch.com/p/its-time-to-remember-tolkien-again?utm_source=email
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 14,025
    kle4 said:

    @visegrad24
    Another scandalous statement on Ukraine by Macron.

    He basically calls Central Eastern European nations such as Czechia, the Baltic states and Poland the “most war-mongering countries that risk of extending the conflict.”

    He says Brussels can’t let them set EU policies on Russia


    https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1566456544455262210

    Surely the EU should set policy together? It's not the Franco-German show, right?

    Extending the conflict is hardly the worst option available Macron, mate.
    It's part of a much longer and quite interesting speech Macron gave to French ambassadors where he sets out the foreign policy goals he expects them to implement. For Ukraine he has three goals:
    1. The victory of Ukraine. In particular because France has no intention of entering into war with Russia, it needs to support Ukraine both militarily and economically to ensure Russia is defeated.
    2. The need for European unity in its response to Russian aggression. He notes Europe is split largely due to different Russian experiences. French policy is to be in the middle group.
    3. Work through French embassies to promote the view that Russia is at fault amongst non-European and largely neutral countries while helping to alleviate their anxieties around food supplies etc.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,756

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Dynamo said:

    Penddu2 said:

    Russia-Ukraine Red Lines:

    Russia will eventually have to abandon Kerson (west of Dnieper) and that is when a peace deal could be negotiated.

    Russia will want to hold everything it still holds at that point (but will drop its stupider requests such as receiving payment from Ukraine for Russia's war losses).

    Ukraine will want Russia to return to its pre-2014 borders.

    Compromise could be in Russia holding Crimea and its current land in Donbass - but returning other lands in Southern Ukraine and around Kharkiv. Crimea to be demilitarised (except for Sevastopol port) - With UN/Turkish peace-keeping troops brought in to police the border. Ukraine would need to guarantee water & electricity supply - and also demilitarise say 10km from Zaporizia nuclear plant - again use UN/Turkish troops to police.

    Russian sanctions to be dropped in return for reparation payments to Ukraine - say at a 10% levy on gas exports for 10 years

    You can’t reward Russia for invading Ukraine. That just incentivises the next time. They need to be stopped and pushed back.

    There comes a time when you say “Enough! No More!”. That time is now.
    @StillWaters - Will you be telling the Taliban the same thing, Rambo-style? Anyway the west is unlikely to get any say in this matter, any more than Austria-Hungary will.

    @Penddu2 - Or Chinese peacekeepers perhaps but they might not want to do it. Totally agreed that a compromise is needed in which both sides make concessions. Ukraine will want a foot in Sevastopol but they're unlikely to get one, although perhaps a section of the agreement, on a certain face-saving reading, might be interpretable as saying they might possibly get one in the future. Any settlement or "roadmap" would have to address the big question of Ukrainian neutrality or NATO membership or some intermediate status.

    All of this may soon become irrelevant if enough "accidents" happen at strategic points in Karelia etc. - perhaps then in Kaliningrad, Estonia, Netherlands, Britain, Germany, wherever.

    Like me, you obviously want this war to end. But there are those who want WW3.
    I would have thought, to anyone who possesses two brain cells to rub together, that Ukrainian membership of NATO would actually be better for Russia's security than a very angry Ukraine left to its own devices. NATO members to a very great extent have to do what they're told by the US, which last went to war with Russia in 1919. Ukraine outside NATO would probably build up its weapons to take back the territory seized from it by Russia, a la Azerbaijan. And as we've seen Russia are at best an even match for the Ukranians.

    Unfortunately, Vladimir Vladimirovich doesn't have two brain cells, or Kabaeva has sucked them out of him perhaps, or he'd never have invaded to start.
    I have a piece in the pipeline comparing the further invasion of Ukraine to Japanese attack on Pearl Harbour.

    Is Putin the new Hirohito/Isoroku Yamamoto?
    Yamamoto at least had strong reservations about attacking the Americans, although as a good military man he followed orders. Surely Hideki Tojo would be a better parallel?
    Yeah, he is, as I said it is a work in progress.

    As an aside, what would have happened if MacArthur had not helped covering up Hirohito's complicity and Hirohito was executed by the Yanks?
    Chaos in Japan. Civil war in a week, at best. The atom bombs effectively wasted.

    Was it a price worth paying to let the bastard off?

    As I told a Chinese student, I honestly don't know, but I wish the Japanese government hadn't been tainted by it.

    Unfortunately the nature of the system Macarthur inherited meant that executing the Emperor would be profoundly risky.

    That said, whether he did it for that reason or because he saw the Emperor as a tool to be used for the gratification of his personal megalomania is a different question.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,977
    Farage has launched a gin. What a complete and utter grif ... wealth creating entrepreneur!

    https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1566471401153957888?t=LQQHaQEGDGzmUHFIDznu5g&s=19
  • carnforth said:

    A six bedroom, 3650sqft house in Montclair, New Jersey. Built 1927.

    Less than $1m.

    About 14 miles from Wall Street.

    https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/155-Highland-Ave-Montclair-Twp.-NJ-07042-1913/38680798_zpid/

    What does £850k buy you in Epping, Brentwood, Oxted or Epsom?

    Did you scroll past the first two photoshop pictures to see its current state? Needs another $1m of work. It may also have tens or hundreds of thousands of back-taxes due.
    Lol.

    Ok fair enough, I did not.

    But I encourage you to look around other properties in Montclair, New Jersey, which I chose because it’s known as a trendy place to move to when you have kids.

    Anyway my contention is:

    1. London and the SE are not densely populated compared to New York and it’s surrounds.

    2. Somehow, greater New York allows people to aspire to - and live - the middle class dream, which seems thoroughly dead in the South East.

    Greater London 5,701 per sq. km.
    New York Metropolitan area 2,053 per sq. km.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_London
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_metropolitan_area
    You are not comparing like with like.
    At all.
    Enlighten us then!
    Run the numbers for the South East versus the New York MSA.

    Greater London (ie London) is better compared with New York City (the five boroughs).
  • ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Dynamo said:

    Penddu2 said:

    Russia-Ukraine Red Lines:

    Russia will eventually have to abandon Kerson (west of Dnieper) and that is when a peace deal could be negotiated.

    Russia will want to hold everything it still holds at that point (but will drop its stupider requests such as receiving payment from Ukraine for Russia's war losses).

    Ukraine will want Russia to return to its pre-2014 borders.

    Compromise could be in Russia holding Crimea and its current land in Donbass - but returning other lands in Southern Ukraine and around Kharkiv. Crimea to be demilitarised (except for Sevastopol port) - With UN/Turkish peace-keeping troops brought in to police the border. Ukraine would need to guarantee water & electricity supply - and also demilitarise say 10km from Zaporizia nuclear plant - again use UN/Turkish troops to police.

    Russian sanctions to be dropped in return for reparation payments to Ukraine - say at a 10% levy on gas exports for 10 years

    You can’t reward Russia for invading Ukraine. That just incentivises the next time. They need to be stopped and pushed back.

    There comes a time when you say “Enough! No More!”. That time is now.
    @StillWaters - Will you be telling the Taliban the same thing, Rambo-style? Anyway the west is unlikely to get any say in this matter, any more than Austria-Hungary will.

    @Penddu2 - Or Chinese peacekeepers perhaps but they might not want to do it. Totally agreed that a compromise is needed in which both sides make concessions. Ukraine will want a foot in Sevastopol but they're unlikely to get one, although perhaps a section of the agreement, on a certain face-saving reading, might be interpretable as saying they might possibly get one in the future. Any settlement or "roadmap" would have to address the big question of Ukrainian neutrality or NATO membership or some intermediate status.

    All of this may soon become irrelevant if enough "accidents" happen at strategic points in Karelia etc. - perhaps then in Kaliningrad, Estonia, Netherlands, Britain, Germany, wherever.

    Like me, you obviously want this war to end. But there are those who want WW3.
    I would have thought, to anyone who possesses two brain cells to rub together, that Ukrainian membership of NATO would actually be better for Russia's security than a very angry Ukraine left to its own devices. NATO members to a very great extent have to do what they're told by the US, which last went to war with Russia in 1919. Ukraine outside NATO would probably build up its weapons to take back the territory seized from it by Russia, a la Azerbaijan. And as we've seen Russia are at best an even match for the Ukranians.

    Unfortunately, Vladimir Vladimirovich doesn't have two brain cells, or Kabaeva has sucked them out of him perhaps, or he'd never have invaded to start.
    I have a piece in the pipeline comparing the further invasion of Ukraine to Japanese attack on Pearl Harbour.

    Is Putin the new Hirohito/Isoroku Yamamoto?
    Yamamoto at least had strong reservations about attacking the Americans, although as a good military man he followed orders. Surely Hideki Tojo would be a better parallel?
    Yeah, he is, as I said it is a work in progress.

    As an aside, what would have happened if MacArthur had not helped covering up Hirohito's complicity and Hirohito was executed by the Yanks?
    The Republic of Japan, 1945-present
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,357
    rcs1000 said:

    mhart said:

    @visegrad24
    Another scandalous statement on Ukraine by Macron.

    He basically calls Central Eastern European nations such as Czechia, the Baltic states and Poland the “most war-mongering countries that risk of extending the conflict.”

    He says Brussels can’t let them set EU policies on Russia


    https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1566456544455262210

    Seems much of the eu potentially going soft on Russia now. From telegraph

    End the energy sanctions against Russia because we are on our knees,’ says Matteo Salvini

    The far-Right Italian election hopeful said the situation was making Moscow richer as anti-EU protests took place in the Czech Republic

    ByJames Kilner and agencies4 September 2022 • 3:53pm

    Matteo Salvini, the leader of Italy’s far-Right League party, on Sunday called for an end to sanctions on Russia that are leaving citizens “on their knees” because of higher energy bills.

    Salvini cosying up to Putin is not exactly new news.

    More interesting is the fragmentation you are seeing on Europe's right: Salvini, Orban and Duda used to all be very close, and (rightly) sceptical of Brussels. And then there were two.
    Fortunately Meloni, who is much more anti Putin even if otherwise equally hard right, is likely to be elected Italian PM later this month, not Salvini
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594
    edited September 2022
    ydoethur said:

    MISTY said:

    mhart said:

    Leon said:

    Thought experiment. I suggest the best possible outcome for America now is an obviously valid Trump win in 2024. A win that he doesn’t have to enforce with violence

    Would that be deserved? No. Of course not. He’s a maniac and a brute

    However it would mollify the right in the USA. At a crucial moment. Pulling them back from civil war

    And trump is not obviously a bad politician. He has good instincts - like lab leak. The big issue would be US withdrawal from NATO and isolationism - clearly bad for the UK, tho justifiable from a US perspective

    The likely alternative - a win by an aged Biden and a worsening of Wokeness leads, I think, to civil strife of some kind

    Trump has good instincts. His vision (America turning its back on the world, but being so well-armed that nobody can touch them) is really the only way that the long term future looks OK for the USA. If this does not happen, and the US continues on its present course, very big chickens will come home to roost, culpability for Covid amongst them.
    Problem is if Trump wins the woke left go crazy and you might have civil war anyway
    Mention of the American Civil War is interesting. Did Abraham Lincoln ever speak about the Confederacy the way Biden speaks about MAGA republicans? as if they were barely human?

    In case anybody needs reminding, that's the slave owning and highly racist Confederacy, the Confederacy that was killing Lincoln's northern troops in droves?

    The question here surely is how what we might term 'acceptable' republicans reacted to that Biden's speech. The Megan McCains, the Ben Shapiros, the Kevin McCarthys.

    The acceptables detested Biden's speech.
    In every public address after his first in 1861 he called them 'insurgents' (which is a pretty strong word in the context of the time) and told a peace delegation in February 1865 that by rebelling against the USA they had left themselves liable to be hanged.

    Does that count?
    OOOH Hurty words!! Is that really the best you got? last I looked, MAGA Republicans didn't own any slaves or kill thousands of people from Connecticut and Maine to defend their slave owning way of life.

    Anyway, the question is whether Biden's speech has encouraged republicans to put aside their huge differences and unite. As I say, some republicans who are anything but MAGA didn't like Biden's speech.

    Time will tell, I guess.
  • Troll complains democrat looks fascist for pointing out that the anti-democratic politician is a fascist. Supports anti-democratic politician to stop fascists becoming more fascist. Pure trolling idiocy.
  • carnforth said:

    A six bedroom, 3650sqft house in Montclair, New Jersey. Built 1927.

    Less than $1m.

    About 14 miles from Wall Street.

    https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/155-Highland-Ave-Montclair-Twp.-NJ-07042-1913/38680798_zpid/

    What does £850k buy you in Epping, Brentwood, Oxted or Epsom?

    Did you scroll past the first two photoshop pictures to see its current state? Needs another $1m of work. It may also have tens or hundreds of thousands of back-taxes due.
    Lol.

    Ok fair enough, I did not.

    But I encourage you to look around other properties in Montclair, New Jersey, which I chose because it’s known as a trendy place to move to when you have kids.

    Anyway my contention is:

    1. London and the SE are not densely populated compared to New York and it’s surrounds.

    2. Somehow, greater New York allows people to aspire to - and live - the middle class dream, which seems thoroughly dead in the South East.

    Greater London 5,701 per sq. km.
    New York Metropolitan area 2,053 per sq. km.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_London
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_metropolitan_area
    You are not comparing like with like.
    At all.
    Enlighten us then!
    Run the numbers for the South East versus the New York MSA.

    Greater London (ie London) is better compared with New York City (the five boroughs).
    No, you do it! You wrote this above:

    "Anyway my [@Gardenwalker's] contention is:

    1. London and the SE are not densely populated compared to New York and it’s surrounds."


    Prove it!
  • A six bedroom, 3650sqft house in Montclair, New Jersey. Built 1927.

    Less than $1m.

    About 14 miles from Wall Street.

    https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/155-Highland-Ave-Montclair-Twp.-NJ-07042-1913/38680798_zpid/

    What does £850k buy you in Epping, Brentwood, Oxted or Epsom?

    Council tax is often less than the US equivalent aiui (another fop to the rich?).

    ETA London suburbs around £2 million for 3,000+ square feet?
    I think it's quite complicated in the US. They have 3 levels of tax normally, federal, state and county/City. It depends who's providing the services.
    Yes. PLUS fact that different states have totally different mixes of state & local taxes compared with other states.

    For example, Oregon has a state income tax but zero sales taxes, whereas just across the Columbia River, Washington has sales taxes but zero state income tax.

    I ran the numbers for Montclair New Jersey above.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,357

    Let’s imagine two families.

    Family 1 (the Albions) lives in Oxted, Surrey.
    Father has a project management job in the City and Mother is a teacher. Two kids. Total household income £160k.

    Family 2 (the Yankovics) lives in Montclair, New Jersey. Same jobs, but total household income is $260k.

    Family 1 net is £104k after taxes.
    Family 2 net is $190k.

    Family 1 pays £4k council tax
    Family 2 pays $20k property tax

    So now Family 1 has £100k and Family 2 has $170k.

    Cost of living is difficult to compare.
    Food is cheaper in Oxted, but commuting and energy bills are probably cheaper in Montclair.
    For the sake of argument let’s assume it’s a wash.

    Family 1 has to settle for a semi-detached 1960s house of 1700sqft.

    https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/126437891#/?channel=RES_BUY

    So Family 2 in Montclair has something like 1/3 more discretionary spending AND they get more than double the space.

    https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/155-Highland-Ave-Montclair-NJ-07042/38680798_zpid/

    True but Family 2 also has to have private health insurance while Family 1 has the NHS. Family 2 also has much less welfare state support if they lose their jobs.

    There is no denying the US is one of the best places in the West still to be a high earner or rich but for middle and low earners that is now much less certain
  • mhartmhart Posts: 15
    carnforth said:

    Stinks when a role model turns out to be anything but:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-62786614

    “Gareth Thomas says ex-partner never asked about his HIV status”

    Well to be fair being gay doesn't make you a role model...
  • Starry said:

    Troll complains democrat looks fascist for pointing out that the anti-democratic politician is a fascist. Supports anti-democratic politician to stop fascists becoming more fascist. Pure trolling idiocy.

    I think I might have contact Prevent, these trolls worry me, they seem so gullible.

    The sort of thick twats who eventually believe in aliens and the democrats using a pizza parlour as a front for paedophilia.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 1,909
    kinabalu said:

    Farage has launched a gin. What a complete and utter grif ... wealth creating entrepreneur!

    https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1566471401153957888?t=LQQHaQEGDGzmUHFIDznu5g&s=19

    I’m looking forward to former PM Brown launching his own Gin. “It’s not Nigel’s, it’s Gordon’s”.
  • ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Dynamo said:

    Penddu2 said:

    Russia-Ukraine Red Lines:

    Russia will eventually have to abandon Kerson (west of Dnieper) and that is when a peace deal could be negotiated.

    Russia will want to hold everything it still holds at that point (but will drop its stupider requests such as receiving payment from Ukraine for Russia's war losses).

    Ukraine will want Russia to return to its pre-2014 borders.

    Compromise could be in Russia holding Crimea and its current land in Donbass - but returning other lands in Southern Ukraine and around Kharkiv. Crimea to be demilitarised (except for Sevastopol port) - With UN/Turkish peace-keeping troops brought in to police the border. Ukraine would need to guarantee water & electricity supply - and also demilitarise say 10km from Zaporizia nuclear plant - again use UN/Turkish troops to police.

    Russian sanctions to be dropped in return for reparation payments to Ukraine - say at a 10% levy on gas exports for 10 years

    You can’t reward Russia for invading Ukraine. That just incentivises the next time. They need to be stopped and pushed back.

    There comes a time when you say “Enough! No More!”. That time is now.
    @StillWaters - Will you be telling the Taliban the same thing, Rambo-style? Anyway the west is unlikely to get any say in this matter, any more than Austria-Hungary will.

    @Penddu2 - Or Chinese peacekeepers perhaps but they might not want to do it. Totally agreed that a compromise is needed in which both sides make concessions. Ukraine will want a foot in Sevastopol but they're unlikely to get one, although perhaps a section of the agreement, on a certain face-saving reading, might be interpretable as saying they might possibly get one in the future. Any settlement or "roadmap" would have to address the big question of Ukrainian neutrality or NATO membership or some intermediate status.

    All of this may soon become irrelevant if enough "accidents" happen at strategic points in Karelia etc. - perhaps then in Kaliningrad, Estonia, Netherlands, Britain, Germany, wherever.

    Like me, you obviously want this war to end. But there are those who want WW3.
    I would have thought, to anyone who possesses two brain cells to rub together, that Ukrainian membership of NATO would actually be better for Russia's security than a very angry Ukraine left to its own devices. NATO members to a very great extent have to do what they're told by the US, which last went to war with Russia in 1919. Ukraine outside NATO would probably build up its weapons to take back the territory seized from it by Russia, a la Azerbaijan. And as we've seen Russia are at best an even match for the Ukranians.

    Unfortunately, Vladimir Vladimirovich doesn't have two brain cells, or Kabaeva has sucked them out of him perhaps, or he'd never have invaded to start.
    I have a piece in the pipeline comparing the further invasion of Ukraine to Japanese attack on Pearl Harbour.

    Is Putin the new Hirohito/Isoroku Yamamoto?
    Yamamoto at least had strong reservations about attacking the Americans, although as a good military man he followed orders. Surely Hideki Tojo would be a better parallel?
    Yeah, he is, as I said it is a work in progress.

    As an aside, what would have happened if MacArthur had not helped covering up Hirohito's complicity and Hirohito was executed by the Yanks?
    Chaos in Japan. Civil war in a week, at best. The atom bombs effectively wasted.

    Was it a price worth paying to let the bastard off?

    As I told a Chinese student, I honestly don't know, but I wish the Japanese government hadn't been tainted by it.

    Unfortunately the nature of the system Macarthur inherited meant that executing the Emperor would be profoundly risky.

    That said, whether he did it for that reason or because he saw the Emperor as a tool to be used for the gratification of his personal megalomania is a different question.
    Just carpet bomb Japan with nukes if they rebelled.

    I always thought the best/least worst option was to make Hirohito abdicate and live out a quiet retirement.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Starry said:

    Troll complains democrat looks fascist for pointing out that the anti-democratic politician is a fascist. Supports anti-democratic politician to stop fascists becoming more fascist. Pure trolling idiocy.

    I think I might have contact Prevent, these trolls worry me, they seem so gullible.

    The sort of thick twats who eventually believe in aliens and the democrats using a pizza parlour as a front for paedophilia.
    Isn't that what at least one of our royals does?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,756
    edited September 2022
    MISTY said:

    ydoethur said:

    MISTY said:

    mhart said:

    Leon said:

    Thought experiment. I suggest the best possible outcome for America now is an obviously valid Trump win in 2024. A win that he doesn’t have to enforce with violence

    Would that be deserved? No. Of course not. He’s a maniac and a brute

    However it would mollify the right in the USA. At a crucial moment. Pulling them back from civil war

    And trump is not obviously a bad politician. He has good instincts - like lab leak. The big issue would be US withdrawal from NATO and isolationism - clearly bad for the UK, tho justifiable from a US perspective

    The likely alternative - a win by an aged Biden and a worsening of Wokeness leads, I think, to civil strife of some kind

    Trump has good instincts. His vision (America turning its back on the world, but being so well-armed that nobody can touch them) is really the only way that the long term future looks OK for the USA. If this does not happen, and the US continues on its present course, very big chickens will come home to roost, culpability for Covid amongst them.
    Problem is if Trump wins the woke left go crazy and you might have civil war anyway
    Mention of the American Civil War is interesting. Did Abraham Lincoln ever speak about the Confederacy the way Biden speaks about MAGA republicans? as if they were barely human?

    In case anybody needs reminding, that's the slave owning and highly racist Confederacy, the Confederacy that was killing Lincoln's northern troops in droves?

    The question here surely is how what we might term 'acceptable' republicans reacted to that Biden's speech. The Megan McCains, the Ben Shapiros, the Kevin McCarthys.

    The acceptables detested Biden's speech.
    In every public address after his first in 1861 he called them 'insurgents' (which is a pretty strong word in the context of the time) and told a peace delegation in February 1865 that by rebelling against the USA they had left themselves liable to be hanged.

    Does that count?
    OOOH Hurty words!! Is that really the best you got? last I looked, MAGA Republicans didn't own any slaves or kill thousands of people from Connecticut and Maine to defend their slave owning way of life.

    Anyway, the question is whether Biden's speech has encouraged republicans to put aside their huge differences and unite. As I say, some republicans who are anything but MAGA didn't like Biden's speech.
    Time will tell, I guess.
    Yes, because that's what you asked for, and I quote: Did Abraham Lincoln ever speak about the Confederacy the way Biden speaks about MAGA republicans? as if they were barely human?

    I realise you probably didn't understand, maybe I should have explained. Calling them an 'insurgent' was in effect comparing them to rebel slaves. People Lincoln himself, in case you were unaware, considered 'barely human.' There could have been no greater insult. Suggesting they might be hanged like pirates to their faces was even stronger.

    Calling a notorious sexual predator, vote rigger, violent insurrectionist and failed president and his supporters a 'semi-fascist' is mild by comparison (and certainly doesn't imply they're barely human).

    Especially since the Confederates were traitors, and supported rampaging piracy (with British built warships, I might add) while Trump is way, way past the 'semi' fascist stage.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    noof red

  • IshmaelZ said:

    Starry said:

    Troll complains democrat looks fascist for pointing out that the anti-democratic politician is a fascist. Supports anti-democratic politician to stop fascists becoming more fascist. Pure trolling idiocy.

    I think I might have contact Prevent, these trolls worry me, they seem so gullible.

    The sort of thick twats who eventually believe in aliens and the democrats using a pizza parlour as a front for paedophilia.
    Isn't that what at least one of our royals does?
    Believe in aliens, yes I can imagine Prince Charles believing in that, I mean he also believes in homeopathy.
  • New Thread

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,977
    boulay said:

    kinabalu said:

    Farage has launched a gin. What a complete and utter grif ... wealth creating entrepreneur!

    https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1566471401153957888?t=LQQHaQEGDGzmUHFIDznu5g&s=19

    I’m looking forward to former PM Brown launching his own Gin. “It’s not Nigel’s, it’s Gordon’s”.
    He wouldn't! Not Gordon.
  • HYUFD said:

    Let’s imagine two families.

    Family 1 (the Albions) lives in Oxted, Surrey.
    Father has a project management job in the City and Mother is a teacher. Two kids. Total household income £160k.

    Family 2 (the Yankovics) lives in Montclair, New Jersey. Same jobs, but total household income is $260k.

    Family 1 net is £104k after taxes.
    Family 2 net is $190k.

    Family 1 pays £4k council tax
    Family 2 pays $20k property tax

    So now Family 1 has £100k and Family 2 has $170k.

    Cost of living is difficult to compare.
    Food is cheaper in Oxted, but commuting and energy bills are probably cheaper in Montclair.
    For the sake of argument let’s assume it’s a wash.

    Family 1 has to settle for a semi-detached 1960s house of 1700sqft.

    https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/126437891#/?channel=RES_BUY

    So Family 2 in Montclair has something like 1/3 more discretionary spending AND they get more than double the space.

    https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/155-Highland-Ave-Montclair-NJ-07042/38680798_zpid/

    True but Family 2 also has to have private health insurance while Family 1 has the NHS. Family 2 also has much less welfare state support if they lose their jobs.

    There is no denying the US is one of the best places in the West still to be a high earner or rich but for middle and low earners that is now much less certain
    Oh I agree that the US is awful if you are in the bottom 20 or 30%. And I take the point about healthcare.

    I’m talking about broad middle - the 30 to 90% decile can aspire to a middle class lifestyle in a way that Brits in the South East no longer can.
  • kinabalu said:

    Farage has launched a gin. What a complete and utter grif ... wealth creating entrepreneur!

    https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1566471401153957888?t=LQQHaQEGDGzmUHFIDznu5g&s=19

    The White Gin the best seller I predict.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 15,154

    carnforth said:

    A six bedroom, 3650sqft house in Montclair, New Jersey. Built 1927.

    Less than $1m.

    About 14 miles from Wall Street.

    https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/155-Highland-Ave-Montclair-Twp.-NJ-07042-1913/38680798_zpid/

    What does £850k buy you in Epping, Brentwood, Oxted or Epsom?

    Did you scroll past the first two photoshop pictures to see its current state? Needs another $1m of work. It may also have tens or hundreds of thousands of back-taxes due.
    Lol.

    Ok fair enough, I did not.

    But I encourage you to look around other properties in Montclair, New Jersey, which I chose because it’s known as a trendy place to move to when you have kids.

    Anyway my contention is:

    1. London and the SE are not densely populated compared to New York and it’s surrounds.

    2. Somehow, greater New York allows people to aspire to - and live - the middle class dream, which seems thoroughly dead in the South East.

    Those are interesting contentions, and I'm not quite sure what the comparison is at the London end.

    NY Metropolitan Area is 4700 sq miles and 30 million people.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_metropolitan_area

    I would naturally think about something like the so called "Travel to Work" area, or "Outer Commuter Belt", going some way beyond the M25. That comes in at a population of 12-15 million.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/London_metropolitan_area#Outer_commuter_belt

    For London, 4700 sq miles would be a radius of 35-40 miles, which includes Slough and Luton and Chelmsford and Guildford, but not eg Reading or Milton Keynes. Suspect that would not be far off the population numbers, and density, as a comparison.

    Montclair to Times Square is 13 miles as the crow flies, which is the same as Epsom to Marble Arch.

    Hmmm.

  • MISTY said:

    mhart said:

    Leon said:

    Thought experiment. I suggest the best possible outcome for America now is an obviously valid Trump win in 2024. A win that he doesn’t have to enforce with violence

    Would that be deserved? No. Of course not. He’s a maniac and a brute

    However it would mollify the right in the USA. At a crucial moment. Pulling them back from civil war

    And trump is not obviously a bad politician. He has good instincts - like lab leak. The big issue would be US withdrawal from NATO and isolationism - clearly bad for the UK, tho justifiable from a US perspective

    The likely alternative - a win by an aged Biden and a worsening of Wokeness leads, I think, to civil strife of some kind

    Trump has good instincts. His vision (America turning its back on the world, but being so well-armed that nobody can touch them) is really the only way that the long term future looks OK for the USA. If this does not happen, and the US continues on its present course, very big chickens will come home to roost, culpability for Covid amongst them.
    Problem is if Trump wins the woke left go crazy and you might have civil war anyway
    Mention of the American Civil War is interesting. Did Abraham Lincoln ever speak about the Confederacy the way Biden speaks about MAGA republicans? as if they were barely human?

    In case anybody needs reminding, that's the slave owning and highly racist Confederacy, the Confederacy that was killing Lincoln's northern troops in droves?

    The question here surely is how what we might term 'acceptable' republicans reacted to that Biden's speech. The Megan McCains, the Ben Shapiros, the Kevin McCarthys.

    The acceptables detested Biden's speech.
    Kevin McCarthy is NOT an "acceptable Republican" unless you are partial to incompetent suckups.

    Republican strategy is to make 2022 a referendum on Biden. Which is of course standing operating procedure for US opposition party in midterm elections. And seemed like a sure thing for THIS year, given Uncle Joe's low polling number plus high cost of living & other economic issues.

    HOWEVER, the Sage > Security Risk of Mar-a-Lardo is undermining THAT strategy via his trademark mega-MAGA super-egoism. Including saddling Republicans with some really Trumpist dingleberries as their US Senate & House nominees.

    Add the judicial activism of the US Republican Guard aka Supreme Court, in particular by justices that Trump nominated and that Republican senators confirmed, and the GOP is well on its way to converting a referendum on Biden and the Democrats, into (yet another) judgement upon Trump and his Putinist Republican followers, enablers and fellow grifters.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,977
    edited September 2022

    Leon said:

    Biden’s team have absolutely used Fascist tropes in the staging of that speech. Which, given that it was a speech denouncing fascist republicans - and using the F word - is mind boggling and deeply strange

    The 21st century doesn’t get any more normal

    I'm not into flag-shagging, but if fascists had never done anything but that, we'd be quite tolerant of fascism. Biden's speech does not criticise Trump for excessive use of flags, after all. You mistake the decor (which as OLB notes is not unusual in the US) for the cohtent.
    One mistake was the positioning of US Marines behind Biden. It's one thing doing such a speech when you are coming at it from a party political stance. It's another when you seem to be implying you are speaking as the Commander in Chief. Biden's speech was clearly political - when you claim that a large part of the opposition voting bloc is (semi)-fascist, it clearly is.

    Easy way to see how wrong this is to switch the tables, imagine Trump doing this in the same setting / with the same backdrop of the Marines, and imagine the reaction. The consensus would be Trump was dangerously flirting with dictatorship.
    Which he would have been. Biden wasn't - because he's Biden not Trump. It's not that difficult.
  • carnforth said:

    A six bedroom, 3650sqft house in Montclair, New Jersey. Built 1927.

    Less than $1m.

    About 14 miles from Wall Street.

    https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/155-Highland-Ave-Montclair-Twp.-NJ-07042-1913/38680798_zpid/

    What does £850k buy you in Epping, Brentwood, Oxted or Epsom?

    Did you scroll past the first two photoshop pictures to see its current state? Needs another $1m of work. It may also have tens or hundreds of thousands of back-taxes due.
    Lol.

    Ok fair enough, I did not.

    But I encourage you to look around other properties in Montclair, New Jersey, which I chose because it’s known as a trendy place to move to when you have kids.

    Anyway my contention is:

    1. London and the SE are not densely populated compared to New York and it’s surrounds.

    2. Somehow, greater New York allows people to aspire to - and live - the middle class dream, which seems thoroughly dead in the South East.

    Greater London 5,701 per sq. km.
    New York Metropolitan area 2,053 per sq. km.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_London
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_metropolitan_area
    You are not comparing like with like.
    At all.
    Enlighten us then!
    Run the numbers for the South East versus the New York MSA.

    Greater London (ie London) is better compared with New York City (the five boroughs).
    No, you do it! You wrote this above:

    "Anyway my [@Gardenwalker's] contention is:

    1. London and the SE are not densely populated compared to New York and it’s surrounds."


    Prove it!
    MattW said:

    carnforth said:

    A six bedroom, 3650sqft house in Montclair, New Jersey. Built 1927.

    Less than $1m.

    About 14 miles from Wall Street.

    https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/155-Highland-Ave-Montclair-Twp.-NJ-07042-1913/38680798_zpid/

    What does £850k buy you in Epping, Brentwood, Oxted or Epsom?

    Did you scroll past the first two photoshop pictures to see its current state? Needs another $1m of work. It may also have tens or hundreds of thousands of back-taxes due.
    Lol.

    Ok fair enough, I did not.

    But I encourage you to look around other properties in Montclair, New Jersey, which I chose because it’s known as a trendy place to move to when you have kids.

    Anyway my contention is:

    1. London and the SE are not densely populated compared to New York and it’s surrounds.

    2. Somehow, greater New York allows people to aspire to - and live - the middle class dream, which seems thoroughly dead in the South East.

    Those are interesting contentions, and I'm not quite sure what the comparison is at the London end.

    NY Metropolitan Area is 4700 sq miles and 30 million people.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_metropolitan_area

    I would naturally think about something like the so called "Travel to Work" area, or "Outer Commuter Belt", going some way beyond the M25. That comes in at a population of 12-15 million.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/London_metropolitan_area#Outer_commuter_belt

    For London, 4700 sq miles would be a radius of 35-40 miles, which includes Slough and Luton and Chelmsford and Guildford, but not eg Reading or Milton Keynes. Suspect that would not be far off the population numbers, and density, as a comparison.

    Montclair to Times Square is 13 miles as the crow flies, which is the same as Epsom to Marble Arch.

    Hmmm.

    London’s Travel to Work Area doesn’t even cover London.

    I went with the “South East”* because I know/knew people who would commute in from Brighton, Colchester, Margate etc etc.

    The New York MSA (though not CSA which strikes me as a statistical artefact rather than a commuting reality) is the best comparator.

    *Actually, because I’m a geek, I lopped off Hampshire & the Isle of Wight and added Herts and Essex. You could legitimately add northern Hants and Bedfordshire too, but I didn’t.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 42,503

    The ingenuity of the Ukrainians is matched only by the base stupidity of the Russian troops.... Weaponising the beauty of Ukrainian women:

    The Russians "leaked the co-ordinates of their base to hackers because they thought they were talking to beautiful women...."

    And that base then got taken out.

    https://twitter.com/789Bigsky/status/1566460385649106948

    Brilliant, I needed a good laugh on a Sunday evening. :D
  • My “corrected” South East, pop. 19m
    New York Metro Statistical Area, pop. 20m
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 42,503

    carnforth said:

    Stinks when a role model turns out to be anything but:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-62786614

    “Gareth Thomas says ex-partner never asked about his HIV status”

    If we had a cancel culture then Gareth Thomas would be cancelled away in prison.

    I've read of people who have gone to prison for the shit Thomas has done there.
    While this is a civil case, people have previously been charged with GBH for passing HIV to a sexual partner.
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2739924/Boyfriend-knew-HIV-three-years-jailed-GBH-deliberately-infecting-girlfriend-having-unprotected-sex.html
  • Penddu2 said:

    Russia-Ukraine Red Lines:

    Russia will eventually have to abandon Kerson (west of Dnieper) and that is when a peace deal could be negotiated.

    Russia will want to hold everything it still holds at that point (but will drop its stupider requests such as receiving payment from Ukraine for Russia's war losses).

    Ukraine will want Russia to return to its pre-2014 borders.

    Compromise could be in Russia holding Crimea and its current land in Donbass - but returning other lands in Southern Ukraine and around Kharkiv. Crimea to be demilitarised (except for Sevastopol port) - With UN/Turkish peace-keeping troops brought in to police the border. Ukraine would need to guarantee water & electricity supply - and also demilitarise say 10km from Zaporizia nuclear plant - again use UN/Turkish troops to police.

    Russian sanctions to be dropped in return for reparation payments to Ukraine - say at a 10% levy on gas exports for 10 years



    You can’t reward Russia for invading Ukraine. That just incentivises the next time. They need to be stopped and pushed back.

    There comes a time when you say “Enough! No More!”. That time is now.
    I agree completely and yet. In 1939 we went to war because of Nazi Germany's invasion of Poland. In the late-1940s we accepted Soviet dominion over Poland and the rest of Eastern Europe.

    At some point we may have to accept that there's been enough fighting and we have to make the best of a bad job. We're not at that point yet, but it exists.
  • Politico.com - Oz seeks to win over the MAGA faithful
    But interviews with a dozen voters at Trump's Pennsylvania rally revealed a complicated picture.

    https://www.politico.com/news/2022/09/03/oz-seeks-to-win-over-the-maga-faithful-00054772

    WILKES-BARRE, Pa. — In the hours before former President Donald Trump’s rally in northeastern Pennsylvania, Right Side Broadcasting Network host Liz Willis said she was watching for something Saturday: Dr. Oz’s reception.

    The last time Trump campaigned for the celebrity doctor-turned-Senate candidate here in the primary, she told viewers of the conservative platform, he was booed by the audience. Now that he’s the Republican nominee in a key battleground state that could decide control of the Senate, how would the MAGA faithful react?

    It’s a question that the success of Oz’s campaign depends on — and, lucky for him, the audience was more excited for him this time around.

    But interviews with a dozen voters at the rally, which also featured gubernatorial candidate Doug Mastriano and congressional hopeful Jim Bognet, revealed a complicated picture: Oz is making headway with the GOP base, and many Republicans are committed to voting for him even if they have to hold their nose. However, he is still struggling with an enthusiasm gap — and even far-right disinformation being spread about him. . . .

    Oz has been struggling to unite the GOP base since winning the primary — which went to a recount — by fewer than 1,000 votes after a brutal, costly negative ad campaign that attacked him as a “Republican in name only.” In a recent poll by Susquehanna Polling and Research, Oz was supported by likely Republican voters 78 percent to 13 percent, compared to Fetterman, who was backed by Democrats 87 percent to 9 percent. . . .

    Trump called Oz “an incredibly successful man on television and medicine” and said [Republican nominee for Governor] Mastriano “supported me right from the beginning.”

    Ahead of the rally Saturday, Republican strategists said they were hopeful the event would help Oz shore up his standing with the base. Even Democratic consultants said it would likely benefit him.

    At the same time, [Democratic consultant] Balaban said, campaigning with Trump “will do him no favors with swing voters.”

    SSI - Note that it's been three months since Oz (finally) won the PA GOP primary. Instead of using this time to mend fences and unite the GOP behind him, he frittered it away. Aided and abetted by the hilarious hubris and incompetence of Sen. Rick Scott, head of Senate GOP campaign committee this cycle, whose relentless albeit hapless focus on his own presidential ambitions has sent GOP fundraising for winning back the Senate into a tailspin. Including wholesale cancellation of TV ads in key 2024 battleground states.

    Including the Keystone State, which is looking as much of a true keystone to victory, to whichever side ends up being victorious, in 2022 - and in 2024 - as it was in 1776.

  • NEW THREAD
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,316

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Thought experiment. I suggest the best possible outcome for America now is an obviously valid Trump win in 2024. A win that he doesn’t have to enforce with violence

    Would that be deserved? No. Of course not. He’s a maniac and a brute

    However it would mollify the right in the USA. At a crucial moment. Pulling them back from civil war

    And trump is not obviously a bad politician. He has good instincts - like lab leak. The big issue would be US withdrawal from NATO and isolationism - clearly bad for the UK, tho justifiable from a US perspective

    The likely alternative - a win by an aged Biden and a worsening of Wokeness leads, I think, to civil strife of some kind

    Trump has good instincts. His vision (America turning its back on the world, but being so well-armed that nobody can touch them) is really the only way that the long term future looks OK for the USA. If this does not happen, and the US continues on its present course, very big chickens will come home to roost, culpability for Covid amongst them.
    Trump’s basic instincts are the precise opposite of good.
    He has many faults, but a paucity of low cunning isn't one of them.
    Pretty meaningless when you could say the same of (eg)Stalin.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    MISTY said:

    ydoethur said:

    MISTY said:

    mhart said:

    Leon said:

    Thought experiment. I suggest the best possible outcome for America now is an obviously valid Trump win in 2024. A win that he doesn’t have to enforce with violence

    Would that be deserved? No. Of course not. He’s a maniac and a brute

    However it would mollify the right in the USA. At a crucial moment. Pulling them back from civil war

    And trump is not obviously a bad politician. He has good instincts - like lab leak. The big issue would be US withdrawal from NATO and isolationism - clearly bad for the UK, tho justifiable from a US perspective

    The likely alternative - a win by an aged Biden and a worsening of Wokeness leads, I think, to civil strife of some kind

    Trump has good instincts. His vision (America turning its back on the world, but being so well-armed that nobody can touch them) is really the only way that the long term future looks OK for the USA. If this does not happen, and the US continues on its present course, very big chickens will come home to roost, culpability for Covid amongst them.
    Problem is if Trump wins the woke left go crazy and you might have civil war anyway
    Mention of the American Civil War is interesting. Did Abraham Lincoln ever speak about the Confederacy the way Biden speaks about MAGA republicans? as if they were barely human?

    In case anybody needs reminding, that's the slave owning and highly racist Confederacy, the Confederacy that was killing Lincoln's northern troops in droves?

    The question here surely is how what we might term 'acceptable' republicans reacted to that Biden's speech. The Megan McCains, the Ben Shapiros, the Kevin McCarthys.

    The acceptables detested Biden's speech.
    In every public address after his first in 1861 he called them 'insurgents' (which is a pretty strong word in the context of the time) and told a peace delegation in February 1865 that by rebelling against the USA they had left themselves liable to be hanged.

    Does that count?
    OOOH Hurty words!! Is that really the best you got? last I looked, MAGA Republicans didn't own any slaves or kill thousands of people from Connecticut and Maine to defend their slave owning way of life.

    Anyway, the question is whether Biden's speech has encouraged republicans to put aside their huge differences and unite. As I say, some republicans who are anything but MAGA didn't like Biden's speech.

    Time will tell, I guess.
    Bizarrely I don't remember you getting this excised by language when Trump called Democrats fascists.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,820
    OnboardG1 said:

    Let me know when Leon and his brigade of sock-puppets have buggered off.

    To be honest I just log off when Leon's in full flow right-wing ranting mode about woke, aliens, Dall-E or whatever his latest of the day happens to be. The site degenerates into a cross between the National Enquirer and the Daily Mail.
  • rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Re the US November elections, there is some very interesting polling coming out from Trafalgar (hear me out) in some of the states. For the NY Governorship, Trafalgar has it 48 v 43 for the Ds

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/governor/ny/new_york_governor_zeldin_vs_hochul-7749.html

    Meanwhile, in the Washington Senate race, the Democrats have only a +3 lead

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/wa/washington_senate_smiley_vs_murray-7400.html

    The obvious reaction will be "It's Trafalgar". However, (1) these polls are not just 3 or 5 points difference from others, they are something like 15-20 points difference and (2) there have been a few other Trafalgar polls in other races (GA Senate / Governorship; PA Governorship / Senate) where the Trafalgar findings have been replicated in later polls.

    Any insights into what is going on? Even if you think Trafalgar is sh1t, that magnitude of discrepancy is massive.

    I don't believe Trafalgar conducts polls. There is no corporate entity. They don't have clients.

    I think they are entirely made up.
    Ok, let's run with that.

    538 rates them at A-. Doesn't mean they are right, 538 could be completely wrong. However, they include Trafalgar in their polls so they clearly don't believe they are fake.

    Let's take another example, the GA Senate race. The polls for July / August had Warnock between +3 to +10. Trafalgar then comes up with Walker +1. One or two days later, Emerson comes up with a +2 Walker lead. So is Trafalgar getting lucky with their guesses? Tapping into other polling companies' data?

    As I said. scepticism is natural but claiming they falsify their data is something else.



    Well, having interviewed the founder, i think he's a sharp cookie, who likes the attention.

    But, let's turn this around.

    Telephone polling is not inexpensive. Trafalgar has no office. It's not a corporation. It doesn't conduct polls for newspapers or for organizations.

    Who pays for the polls? Who conducts them?

    Any of us* on here could invent some polling easily, and do a reasonable job of getting pretty close to the result, especially in the context of races where there are lots of existing pollsters.

    * Well, most of us
    All valid points although it still raises the question of 538's rating plus why their numbers seem to be followed by others soon after.

    The main question still remains though. Is what they have polled for NY and Washington a total aberration and / or made up polling, or is it something else? And, if it is made up, why produce such figures that look so blatantly false in two states that are not considered battlegrounds?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 17,643
    edited September 2022
    OllyT said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    Let me know when Leon and his brigade of sock-puppets have buggered off.

    To be honest I just log off when Leon's in full flow right-wing ranting mode about woke, aliens, Dall-E or whatever his latest of the day happens to be. The site degenerates into a cross between the National Enquirer and the Daily Mail.
    I’m guilty of riding my own hobbyhorse today but Leon really does clog up the site with tripe.

    In his defence, he gets a guaranteed response from most posters.

    It’s silly season though, hopefully things revert to being more interesting in a week or two.
  • TresTres Posts: 1,536
    edited September 2022
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Is this deliberate? Some kind of bizarre, trolling joke? If so that is criminally irresponsible when America is so volatile. Or is Biden trying to say “I’m the real fascist”. But why would he do that?

    I suspect it is just an enormous error




    Anyone depicting Biden as a fascist is totally bonkers. No fuhrer sits in a rocking chair distributing Werthers Originals.
    Have I said Biden is a fascist?

    No, because he obviously isn’t

    What I am saying is that his team used quite blatant fascist imagery in the staging of that speech about “fascism” which is either some truly bizarre, misguided meta trolling, or a colossal error
    Other than the colour red I'm failing to see the connection. But isn't red the colour of communism anyway? So perhaps it is a massive error after all because it makes Biden look like a commie bastard.
    Look at the Geldof photo. That’s the movie director going for a fascist “feel”. Deep dark red, heavy flags, bombastic Roman architecture, military men standing erect


    These are fascist motifs without a doubt, which is why artists employ them when they want to go for a fascist aesthetic
    it's just Dark Brandon grandad.
This discussion has been closed.