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Some worrying findings for the Tories from Opinium – politicalbetting.com

245

Comments

  • BritNats: you’re not getting your referendum.

    Also BritNats: we’re going to rig your referendum.

    Make your minds up chaps.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,906
    dixiedean said:

    Yep.
    State mandated pricing in buses. Something undreamed of outside our capitals.
    Worst Tory nightmare in fact. They've been fighting this since David Blunkett was a councillor.
    Implies very real fear of businesses closing because no one can afford to travel.
    Those businesses might have no shortage of other reasons to have to close anyway.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 10,093

    I have no problem with that if it is introduced in conjunction with a rule that only those living full time in Scotland for at least 10 years can vote. No second homers and recent English incomers can vote.
    Just the English ones? Steady there, Scotch Farage.

    The residency rule is something the SNP should avoid debating at all costs. Shut that down immediately, otherwise the Unionists will (rightly) cry toxic nationalism.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    I have no problem with that if it is introduced in conjunction with a rule that only those living full time in Scotland for at least 10 years can vote. No second homers and recent English incomers can vote.
    I will never stop wondering why you specified recent *English* incomers there. Never.
  • Eabhal said:

    Starmer's solution was far too generous to people on higher incomes. It really needs to be Sunak's (x4) or similar.
    My issue with Starmer's proposals were that the wealthy including footballers, celebrities, and company bosses were included when in truth those with the broadest shoulders should contribute to the crisis not benefit from it

    Furthermore he refuses to answer what he will do when energy rises to £6,000 in April and nothing at all for business other than a billion raised by increasing the Amazon tax
  • I have no problem with that if it is introduced in conjunction with a rule that only those living full time in Scotland for at least 10 years can vote. No second homers and recent English incomers can vote.
    Is that a go @RochdalePioneers as it is quite funny
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,067
    HYUFD said:

    Truss considering not replacing the 48 hour maximum working week in UK law when all remaining EU regulations are scrapped next year and also not renewing the guaranteed 4 weeks holiday a year plus Bank Holidays. This is the first sign of the firmly Thatcherite government Truss will lead in economic terms

    https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1566018961875079169?s=20&t=bcYiechy4LAcRQXuuFY1vw

    People waking up to what a dramatic change of government this is. Truss and Kwarzy politics in a very different place than Boris and his chancellors, very very different place to Dave and May and their chancellors, very different to Major and Clarke and the Labour PMs and CoE that followed.

    It will be proper, dry, courage of their convictions Thatcherism.

    From Monday.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,884
    edited September 2022

    BritNats: you’re not getting your referendum.

    Also BritNats: we’re going to rig your referendum.

    Make your minds up chaps.
    Truss' government also to add a requirement that 60%+ in polls of Scots for at least a year in favour of indyref2 required before any UK government would even consider granting it
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 10,093

    BritNats: you’re not getting your referendum.

    Also BritNats: we’re going to rig your referendum.

    Make your minds up chaps.
    Haha, quite. Only 5 weeks till Supreme Court decision!
  • dixiedean said:

    Yes. I'm surprised the bus policy attracted so little comment.
    It's a major intervention. Of the type which the new PM must have signed off on. It is what they dragged Burnham through court to prevent.
    It's a huge deal.
    And not a harbinger of good at all.
    Besides. A lot of places have increasingly skeletal bus services anyway.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,884

    … despite his willingness to deal with them.

    Without being willing to accept SD confidence and supply he has zero chance of becoming PM
  • People waking up to what a dramatic change of government this is. Truss and Kwarzy politics in a very different place than Boris and his chancellors, very very different place to Dave and May and their chancellors, very different to Major and Clarke and the Labour PMs and CoE that followed.

    It will be proper, dry, courage of their convictions Thatcherism.

    From Monday.
    Err Tuesday after seeing the Queen at Balmoral
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,906
    Eabhal said:

    Just the English ones? Steady there, Scotch Farage.

    The residency rule is something the SNP should avoid debating at all costs. Shut that down immediately, otherwise the Unionists will (rightly) cry toxic nationalism.
    Never really stops them shouting toxic nationalism anyway, tbf.
  • HYUFD said:

    Truss' government also to add a requirement that 60%+ in polls of Scots for at least a year in favour of indyref2 required before any UK government would even consider granting it
    Will be interesting how Starmer responds
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    BritNats: you’re not getting your referendum.

    Also BritNats: we’re going to rig your referendum.

    Make your minds up chaps.
    Not a britnat but that should have been the rule for Brexit and should be the rule for all referendums and should be welcomed by all sides, because it saves them from a Brexit type pyrrhic victory.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    My issue with Starmer's proposals were that the wealthy including footballers, celebrities, and company bosses were included when in truth those with the broadest shoulders should contribute to the crisis not benefit from it

    Furthermore he refuses to answer what he will do when energy rises to £6,000 in April and nothing at all for business other than a billion raised by increasing the Amazon tax
    When pressed on it in interview (the what about April onwards) he wibbled on about insulation like one of those glue your butt to the road nutters. It does nothing to support business. It only looks superficially attractive because nought else is on the table. If she cant beat that in her response they deserve to lose and lose big.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,067

    Seems an odd +4 swing though, when nothing has really changed to prompt it
    The last one was the outlier. And South Ham is right, the higher you poll by sweeping up don’t knows yourself the smaller the packet of don’t knows the % gets added to you.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,884
    Carnyx said:

    I might believe she is serious if she

    (a) eliminates inheritance tax allowances beyond the basic one especially those for Approved Families ((c) C of E)
    (b) ditto the savings interest, rentals, and dividends allowances for income tax

    Won't be nearly enough - but it will show she's no longer pandering to the grey legions of the Tory Party and is at least aware that voters exist beyond that.
    The appetite for Singapore style capitalism with high inheritance tax and little support for pensioners' savings is about 10% max in the UK.

    So it would be political suicide for Truss to try it
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,906
    HYUFD said:

    Truss' government also to add a requirement that 60%+ in polls of Scots for at least a year in favour of indyref2 required before any UK government would even consider granting it
    Ooooh, they'll "consider" it at that point? How very generous.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    Surely those rumours re Truss dropping the guaranteed 4 weeks holiday are some wind up .

    How on earth is removing that guarantee any sort of vote winner or are the Tories now so arrogant that they think they can get away with anything.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,364
    Eabhal said:

    Just the English ones? Steady there, Scotch Farage.

    The residency rule is something the SNP should avoid debating at all costs. Shut that down immediately, otherwise the Unionists will (rightly) cry toxic nationalism.
    To be blunt, Scottish nationalism already looks pretty toxic to this non-English observer. Like Farageism only with even more dishonesty.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,884

    Will be interesting how Starmer responds
    Truss intends to pass that into law, so unless Starmer repeals it that makes a very high threshold even to get to indyref2
  • Fracking is an easy win for Truss.

    She lifts any bans but then no one wants to actually do any fracking in UK - a detail that will escape her members.
    It's bizarro post-modern politics. Lifting a fracking ban that doesn't release a single bubble of gas but makes the Conservative right feel good... Why?
  • HYUFD said:

    Without being willing to accept SD confidence and supply he has zero chance of becoming PM
    That comment displays how Nigel Farage has totally succeeded in rotting Tory self-confidence. “Zero chance”?!? Accept the far right or you have “zero chance”?!?

    The centre-right has a choice: concede to the far right, as the Tories have done, or defeat them at the ballot box. “Zero chance” my arse.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,067
    Eabhal said:

    Starmer's solution was far too generous to people on higher incomes. It really needs to be Sunak's (x4) or similar.
    But everyone of those is a voter. A cut off line package has some of those voters just missing the cut off. The Special financial event we are not allowed to call crisis budget is a Special Political Event too - the pressure is on them not to sink themselves so early in the general election run in.
  • Ooooh, they'll "consider" it at that point? How very generous.
    Imagine if the European Commission totally rigged the rules for a Brexit referendum before “considering” or “allowing” it. Pressure cooker deluxe.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,884
    edited September 2022

    People waking up to what a dramatic change of government this is. Truss and Kwarzy politics in a very different place than Boris and his chancellors, very very different place to Dave and May and their chancellors, very different to Major and Clarke and the Labour PMs and CoE that followed.

    It will be proper, dry, courage of their convictions Thatcherism.

    From Monday.
    Yes it will most likely be the most economically dry government since Thatcher and Howe. Even more economically Thatcherite than Cameron and Osborne were
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,906

    It's bizarro post-modern politics. Lifting a fracking ban that doesn't release a single bubble of gas but makes the Conservative right feel good... Why?
    You've answered your own question, right?
  • nico679 said:

    Surely those rumours re Truss dropping the guaranteed 4 weeks holiday are some wind up .

    How on earth is removing that guarantee any sort of vote winner or are the Tories now so arrogant that they think they can get away with anything.

    Truss really believes that the problem with Britain is that British workers don't work hard enough.

    And so many Conservative voters are retired that they won't be affected by this.
  • Eabhal said:

    Great food van there. Try the bacon and brie roll.

    Edit: and possibly parked there to avoid the extortionate parking fees at Arrochar.
    My mum used to work at a pub called The Moorings in Arrochar.
    The owners used to give me old singles from the jukebox
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    nico679 said:

    Surely those rumours re Truss dropping the guaranteed 4 weeks holiday are some wind up .

    How on earth is removing that guarantee any sort of vote winner or are the Tories now so arrogant that they think they can get away with anything.

    What worries me is that she might really believe that reforming the UK labour market, one of the least regulated in the western world, is likely to boost GDP and productivity.

    Or maybe she's a sleeper who's been placed by the hard left?
  • HYUFD said:

    Truss intends to pass that into law, so unless Starmer repeals it that makes a very high threshold even to get to indyref2
    You seem to be such an amateur in politics at times

    Starmer supporting it would see it pass and through the Lords

    His opposition would make it very controversial and just push the conservatives further through the floor in Scotland
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,067
    nico679 said:

    Surely those rumours re Truss dropping the guaranteed 4 weeks holiday are some wind up .

    How on earth is removing that guarantee any sort of vote winner or are the Tories now so arrogant that they think they can get away with anything.

    Copy the brave conviction politics of Lady Thatcher, enjoy her landslides.
  • nico679 said:

    Surely those rumours re Truss dropping the guaranteed 4 weeks holiday are some wind up .

    How on earth is removing that guarantee any sort of vote winner or are the Tories now so arrogant that they think they can get away with anything.

    You will have to wait just 2 years to find out
  • TresTres Posts: 2,811
    eek said:

    That first change will require changing multiple parts of employment law - which really does need to be sorted as current employment law is a grade a mess.

    We’ve covered fracking before though - the Uk geology isn’t suitable
    oi, no experts
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    HYUFD said:

    Yes it will most likely be the most economically dry government since Thatcher and Howe. Even more economically Thatcherite than Cameron and Osborne were
    Or than Thatcher was. And completely illiterate with it.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 10,093
    ydoethur said:

    To be blunt, Scottish nationalism already looks pretty toxic to this non-English observer. Like Farageism only with even more dishonesty.
    That's a shame. I think some of the toxic elements are over-represented on PB, which makes sense given it's a forum of political obsessives. And obviously the stupid Yes2 parades (which Sturgeon studiously avoids) don't help in the media.

    Most indy supporters are just fed up with the current situation, look at the Nordic countries with envy, and see independence as a way to that kind of life. I think that's a perfectly reasonable position, particularly over a 50-year timeline.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,884
    edited September 2022

    That comment displays how Nigel Farage has totally succeeded in rotting Tory self-confidence. “Zero chance”?!? Accept the far right or you have “zero chance”?!?

    The centre-right has a choice: concede to the far right, as the Tories have done, or defeat them at the ballot box. “Zero chance” my arse.
    Sweden has PR, so yes zero chance.

    We don't, so the Tories can still win without needing Farage under FPTP. With PR the Tories would not have won a majority in 2015 and would have needed Farage. Like the Moderates under PR the Tories would normally need the Liberals and/or the Nationalist right for a majority.

    In any case the Social Democrats already do deals with the far left Left Party with no complaints
  • It's bizarro post-modern politics. Lifting a fracking ban that doesn't release a single bubble of gas but makes the Conservative right feel good... Why?
    Drilling for votes, not hydrocarbons.
  • pm215pm215 Posts: 1,231

    I admit I have to be persuaded by her, but at least let her get in office and start the post Johnson age

    I think this is the party's fault for having the leadership election take so long -- it's left a big gap where the result is clear and the only thing left to do is speculate about what the new incumbent will do. And Truss has hardly been being careful to avoid providing fuel for speculation about potential daft policies...
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,911
    The Hundred with a surprisingly exciting climax.
    After looking like a cakewalk.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,067

    Err Tuesday after seeing the Queen at Balmoral
    Err Monday. In victory speech. Truss is the Conservative Party leader from Monday.

    Where she walks, from Monday, the Conservative Party walks.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    Removing peoples guaranteed 4 weeks holiday seems insane . Not sure vote Tory to lose your holiday rights is going to be a winning slogan .

  • HYUFD said:

    Truss considering not replacing the 48 hour maximum working week in UK law when all remaining EU regulations are scrapped next year and also not renewing the guaranteed 4 weeks holiday a year plus Bank Holidays. This is the first sign of the firmly Thatcherite government Truss will lead in economic terms

    https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1566018961875079169?s=20&t=bcYiechy4LAcRQXuuFY1vw

    Truss' new government will also lift the fracking ban within days

    https://twitter.com/toryboypierce/status/1566075534295146496?s=20&t=bcYiechy4LAcRQXuuFY1vw

    This is going to be the most hilarious premiership ever. Popcorn bliss.

    For the record, I have 7 weeks paid holiday. Just saying.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,911
    A six.
    And now 5 off 4 needed.
  • HYUFD said:

    Well at least under the slash tax, slash regulation, increase working hours, take on the unions government Truss looks likely to lead we will see how popular Singapore on Thames UK actually is post Brexit
    It's very exciting to see the seeming resolve of her nascent Government to pursue economic growth.

    Meanwhile, Rishi's £400 energy subsidy will not be considered a reduction in the price of energy, and will therefore not help inflation at all. Thanks Rishi. https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2022/09/02/the-ons-makes-life-more-difficult/
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Minimum turnouts (and 50% absolute vote threshold is just a disguised minimum turnout provision) are terrible for multiple very obvious reasons from the theoretical to the very practical.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    edited September 2022

    You seem to be such an amateur in politics at times

    Starmer supporting it would see it pass and through the Lords

    His opposition would make it very controversial and just push the conservatives further through the floor in Scotland
    What's odd is that it isn't as if the English care very much about Scottish independence. Who is she trying to appeal to with this stuff?. Leaving aside how on earth you legislate for 'opinion polls.' No doubt she'll have something positive on offer for the DUP with regards to the protocol. I wonder if there will be anything for potential Conservative voters?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,364
    Eabhal said:

    That's a shame. I think some of the toxic elements are over-represented on PB, which makes sense given it's a forum of political obsessives. And obviously the stupid Yes2 parades (which Sturgeon studiously avoids) don't help in the media.

    Most indy supporters are just fed up with the current situation, look at the Nordic countries with envy, and see independence as a way to that kind of life. I think that's a perfectly reasonable position, particularly over a 50-year timeline.
    Again, you could make the same comments about Brexit and its supporters. Most of them are not xenophobic loons with small brains and massive egos, but the likes of Farage get the attention.

    However, that in itself shapes the debate and puts people off them.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,102
    IshmaelZ said:

    Or than Thatcher was. And completely illiterate with it.
    Surely someone within Truss’ team is looking at the numbers and thinking that some common sense is needed.

    ..or is it really just a case of “keep the oldies sweet” while shafting everyone else

  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,856
    Eabhal said:

    On the 48 hour working week (FPT) - I signed a thing in my contract that meant this doesn't apply to me. Is that change really a story?

    In principle that declaration needs to be genuinely voluntary. Not quite sure what would happen if your employer enforced it.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,884

    You seem to be such an amateur in politics at times

    Starmer supporting it would see it pass and through the Lords

    His opposition would make it very controversial and just push the conservatives further through the floor in Scotland
    Starmer's opposition is irrelevant as the Tories have a majority.

    If he made clear he would repeal it as PM that will make it harder for him to refuse indyref2, so his problem
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,067

    You seem to be such an amateur in politics at times

    Starmer supporting it would see it pass and through the Lords

    His opposition would make it very controversial and just push the conservatives further through the floor in Scotland
    Absolutely right G. Hating the size and heat of the fire already, don’t put more gasoline on the fire.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,102
    Eabhal said:

    That's a shame. I think some of the toxic elements are over-represented on PB, which makes sense given it's a forum of political obsessives. And obviously the stupid Yes2 parades (which Sturgeon studiously avoids) don't help in the media.

    Most indy supporters are just fed up with the current situation, look at the Nordic countries with envy, and see independence as a way to that kind of life. I think that's a perfectly reasonable position, particularly over a 50-year timeline.
    To be honest, you’ve only got to look on Twitter to see the “other” side to Scottish nationalism.

    Though I do agree with your second point re. 50 year timeline. Key point being “time”
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,906
    nico679 said:

    Removing peoples guaranteed 4 weeks holiday seems insane . Not sure vote Tory to lose your holiday rights is going to be a winning slogan .

    Maybe she'll tell people they need to go down the mines in what would have been their holiday, seeing as we'll need the alternative source of energy.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    Maybe Truss should just say current workers need to be worked to death to keep the Tory core vote happy with their triple lock pensions .
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    ydoethur said:

    To be blunt, Scottish nationalism already looks pretty toxic to this non-English observer. Like Farageism only with even more dishonesty.
    If you can't tell the difference between a left of centre social democratic movement and a Faragist movement, you might want to read up some more, and believe PB and the London media a bit less.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,884
    edited September 2022

    Truss really believes that the problem with Britain is that British workers don't work hard enough.

    And so many Conservative voters are retired that they won't be affected by this.
    Yes but the retired are the Tory core vote, it is voters on average incomes aged 45 to 55 who live in the redwall and Tory held marginal seats who will determine the next general election
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,560
    IshmaelZ said:

    I will never stop wondering why you specified recent *English* incomers there. Never.
    Because other nationalities respect our right to self determination.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,724

    Copy the brave conviction politics of Lady Thatcher, enjoy her landslides.
    The Tories have been complaining about the Working Time Directive since the Major Govt opted out of it. Blair opted us in. It’s been a political football for years. The one set of EU Regs I’ll sit up and take notice if they talk about getting rid is TUPE. That never seems to come up in all these proposed, so-called, “bonfire of regulations”, which never ceases to surprise me given how it runs against English concepts of contract law. Also s.188 of TULRCA - but that’s been baked into primary legislation so’s harder to shift.
  • This is going to be the most hilarious premiership ever. Popcorn bliss.

    For the record, I have 7 weeks paid holiday. Just saying.
    I am sure your workplace has no objections.
  • HYUFD said:

    Starmer's opposition is irrelevant as the Tories have a majority.

    If he made clear he would repeal it as PM that will make it harder for him to refuse indyref2, so his problem
    Not sure how much of that majority Truss can count on, and of course it is better for Starmer to be on board but then you are not known for talking sense on Scotland
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,911
    edited September 2022
    nico679 said:

    Removing peoples guaranteed 4 weeks holiday seems insane . Not sure vote Tory to lose your holiday rights is going to be a winning slogan .

    Not to mention folk have a problem recruiting.
    How does extending hours and removing holidays help when you can't get anyone as it is?
    S Cambs Council trying to move to a 30 hour week because they have no applicants.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,050
    Among the Boris projects to be kicked into the long grass is the national flagship (aka the new royal yacht). Defence sources say building new spy ships to stop Russia meddling with undersea cables come first. "No one wants to pay for the bloody yacht". https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/82f696ea-2ba4-11ed-b39f-ae396665d39a
  • Reminder: at some point, inside information about the count may be leaked.

    Rishi is not very liquid; the price on Liz Truss is a more reliable signal.

    Betfair next prime minister
    1.04 Liz Truss 96%
    22 Rishi Sunak 5%

    Next Conservative leader
    1.04 Liz Truss 96%
    21 Rishi Sunak 5%
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 10,093
    edited September 2022

    To be honest, you’ve only got to look on Twitter to see the “other” side to Scottish nationalism.

    Though I do agree with your second point re. 50 year timeline. Key point being “time”
    Twitter is not Scotland!
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,188
    edited September 2022
    nico679 said:

    Removing peoples guaranteed 4 weeks holiday seems insane . Not sure vote Tory to lose your holiday rights is going to be a winning slogan .

    It'll never happen. It's just another "Regional pay board" type policy. She either won't go through with it, or she'll announce it and then after the inevitable outcry say she's been misrepresented and cancel it.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,364
    edited September 2022
    Carnyx said:

    If you can't tell the difference between a left of centre social democratic movement and a Faragist movement, you might want to read up some more, and believe PB and the London media a bit less.
    Oh, I can. In fact, I used to be quite an admirer of the SNP for just that reason. And I seldom read the London media, so that criticism fails.

    But the SNP is increasingly not different from a Farageist movement. Alarmingly so, in fact.

    It's like the end of Animal Farm.

    Whether its current supporters will ever have this revelation I don't know.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,911
    HYUFD said:

    Yes but the retired are the Tory core vote, it is voters on average incomes aged 45 to 55 who live in the redwall and Tory held marginal seats who will determine the next general election
    In which case might as well enjoy the next two years.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,633

    People waking up to what a dramatic change of government this is. Truss and Kwarzy politics in a very different place than Boris and his chancellors, very very different place to Dave and May and their chancellors, very different to Major and Clarke and the Labour PMs and CoE that followed.

    It will be proper, dry, courage of their convictions Thatcherism.

    From Monday.
    And not contained in the manifesto on which this government was elected.

    "Vote Tory and lose your holidays." Coming to a Labour poster soon if these suggestions are true.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    The Tories need a long time in opposition as they’ve become totally arrogant and think the electorate will swallow anything .

    Just as Trump is a cancer on the USA the current manifestation of the Tories represent a clear and present danger to the UK and need to be removed at the next GE before the UK as we know it ceases to exist .
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,050
    Worrying polling for Truss with 2019 Conservative voters, in tomorrow’s Observer https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/sep/03/the-more-tory-voters-see-of-liz-truss-the-less-they-like-her-polls-show
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 10,093

    Because other nationalities respect our right to self determination.
    Don't confuse the Tories for the English.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    ydoethur said:

    Oh, I can. In fact, I used to be quite an admirer of the SNP for just that reason.

    But the SNP is increasingly not different from a Farageist movement. Alarmingly so, in fact.

    It's like the end of Animal Farm.

    Whether its current supporters will ever have this revelation I don't know.
    Gone the other way over the last 50 years, actually. But then I was there in Scotland, so what do I know?
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,158
    Feeling my age. Just watched a documentary about Sid James - then realised that he died 46 years ago.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,856
    Eabhal said:

    Starmer's solution was far too generous to people on higher incomes. It really needs to be Sunak's (x4) or similar.
    Starmer calls this correctly in terms of scale, I think. May not actually be enough. Also true that massive subsidy can't go on indefinitely.

    Sunak's plan is woefully inadequate, over-complicated and creates too many edge cases. If you want to taper the support the best and easiest way to do this is to cap fuel prices for everyone and claw some or all of it back through higher income tax rates. That's the way to do it, but probably not politically acceptable.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,364
    edited September 2022
    Carnyx said:

    Gone the other way over the last 50 years, actually. But then I was there in Scotland, so what do I know?
    And I have been watching from Wales and the borders over the last 15 years.

    And I think you haven't noticed what's happening. Or don't want to see it.

    But there, why do I argue? Rationality plays no part in this debate and hasn't for many years.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,067

    The only bit that really annoyed me so far was the implied trans (ha) oceanic swimming thing.

    That and maybe the dropping the Ban of the Valar on certain people rocking up in Valinor.

    The way the Two Trees and their destruction was done was very fine - clever use of a shadow to suggest Morgoth, without getting into the issue of them not having rights to the First Age writings.

    Some interesting ideas in the story - will be interesting to see where they go with it. And how the Lord Of Gifts gets brought in…
    Rings of Power *spolier alert*

    Has he (your Lord Of Gifts) literally crashed in via meatorite? Or have they invented a pre Gandalf type Gandalf 🤔
  • Cyclefree said:

    And not contained in the manifesto on which this government was elected.

    "Vote Tory and lose your holidays." Coming to a Labour poster soon if these suggestions are true.
    If they're not in the manifesto, won't Truss struggle to get any controversial laws through the Lords?

    What exactly are the constraints and timeframes there?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,884
    dixiedean said:

    Not to mention folk have a problem recruiting.
    How does extending hours and removing holidays help when you can't get anyone as it is?
    S Cambs Council trying to move to a 30 hour week because they have no applicants.
    Truss will simply tell those on UC they either take whatever job they get or get sent down a mine or fracking for gas or lose all their benefits
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 10,093
    FF43 said:

    Starmer calls this correctly in terms of scale, I think. May not actually be enough. Also true that massive subsidy can't go on indefinitely.

    Sunak's plan is woefully inadequate, over-complicated and creates too many edge cases. If you want to taper the support the best and easiest way to do this is to cap fuel prices for everyone and claw some or all of it back through higher income tax rates. That's the way to do it, but probably not politically acceptable.
    All good points. I was speaking from a pure income distribution basis from that analysis last week (forget the source).
  • HYUFD said:

    Truss will simply tell those on UC they either take whatever job they get or get sent down a mine or fracking for gas or lose all their benefits
    How does she do that without new laws?

    From Thatcher to Violet Elizabeth Bott.
  • HYUFD said:

    Truss will simply tell those on UC they either take whatever job they get or get sent down a mine or fracking for gas or lose all their benefits
    You hope she says something as idiotic as that as you hate Johnson’s eviction and want Truss to fail

    And you as a representative of the party fills me with dread with comments like that

    You are heading for Corbyn style annihilation and deserve it
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,050
    TRUSS CABINET REVEALED
    Based on multiple converstions with aides and ministers, this is my current understanding of the Truss cabinet. Caveat: the white board is not finalised 1/ https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1566166456164810752/photo/1
  • nico679 said:

    Removing peoples guaranteed 4 weeks holiday seems insane . Not sure vote Tory to lose your holiday rights is going to be a winning slogan .

    It's vote Tory so that those poorer than you are forced to work harder so that the prices you pay for goods and services are lower.

    There's quite a lot of votes in that. Lots of workers have more annual leave than the statutory minimum, and will be confident the change won't lead to them losing holidays.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    FF43 said:

    Starmer calls this correctly in terms of scale, I think. May not actually be enough. Also true that massive subsidy can't go on indefinitely.

    Sunak's plan is woefully inadequate, over-complicated and creates too many edge cases. If you want to taper the support the best and easiest way to do this is to cap fuel prices for everyone and claw some or all of it back through higher income tax rates. That's the way to do it, but probably not politically acceptable.
    If his propossl exceeds whatever Truss anounces he is closer on calling the scale correctly but will still be woefully short of what is required to avert disaster and only looks at the next 6 months. Its completely damning of the Tories response so far that Starmers plan has not been dismissed as an expensive sticking plaster for the amputation ward.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,102
    Scott_xP said:

    TRUSS CABINET REVEALED
    Based on multiple converstions with aides and ministers, this is my current understanding of the Truss cabinet. Caveat: the white board is not finalised 1/ https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1566166456164810752/photo/1

    I still can’t understand the political optics of Rees-Mogg at business. That in itself is political suicide
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,188
    Scott_xP said:

    TRUSS CABINET REVEALED
    Based on multiple converstions with aides and ministers, this is my current understanding of the Truss cabinet. Caveat: the white board is not finalised 1/ https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1566166456164810752/photo/1

    Kwasi Kwarteng has very woke views of the Empire. I look forward to him abandoning them.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/aug/30/ghosts-of-empire-what-kwasi-kwartengs-book-tells-us-about-him
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,856
    Pulling that stunt didn't pay off the last time in the end, and it won't if they try it again now.

    Let's say independence is supported by 49%; opposed by 30% with 20% no opinion. Is the 30% going to prevail?
  • ...

    I still can’t understand the political optics of Rees-Mogg at business. That in itself is political suicide
    Rees Mogg is a combative Minister. If he's being appointed, it indicates that BEIS is being lined up for a (well-deserved imo) kick up the bum.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,067
    CatMan said:

    Kwasi Kwarteng has very woke views of the Empire. I look forward to him abandoning them.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/aug/30/ghosts-of-empire-what-kwasi-kwartengs-book-tells-us-about-him
    But an interesting promotion for James Cleverley.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,884

    You hope she says something as idiotic as that as you hate Johnson’s eviction and want Truss to fail

    And you as a representative of the party fills me with dread with comments like that

    You are heading for Corbyn style annihilation and deserve it
    You do realise I was being sarcastic.

    Though given Truss' expected first acts I would not be surprised if it was not a million miles off
  • CatMan said:

    Kwasi Kwarteng has very woke views of the Empire. I look forward to him abandoning them.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/aug/30/ghosts-of-empire-what-kwasi-kwartengs-book-tells-us-about-him
    Nothing to do with his views on the Empire, but I'm not overjoyed at him being lined up for the COTE job.
  • HYUFD said:

    You do realise I was being sarcastic.

    Though given Truss' expected first acts I would not be surprised if it was not a million miles off
    With you - no - and you compound it with your last sentence

    You want Truss to fail and it is very obvious in many of your posts
  • You hope she says something as idiotic as that as you hate Johnson’s eviction and want Truss to fail

    And you as a representative of the party fills me with dread with comments like that

    You are heading for Corbyn style annihilation and deserve it
    That's unfair; people can forsee things without wanting them to happen. The confusion of "what I think will probably happen" and "what I want to happen" is the sort of magical thinking that underpins Trumpism and some of the aspects of UK politics that make me despair.

    (Seriously. People have drawn convincing connections between the "name it and claim it" strand of evangelicalism and the triumph of Trump.)

    All the evidence we have of Truss's views on economics points to her being so dry that, if she were a Martini, people would be flocking to drink her. If she were a desert, there would be a disaster appeal to support the desperate people living there. Getting rid of protections for workers is an electorally dumb idea, but also the kind of thing that an idealogue might do, given two years and a seventy seat majority.

    Pointing that out doesn't mean that anyone wants Truss to fail. Just that she is very likely to do so. Unless she reverse ferrets in the next 48 hours.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,285
    nico679 said:

    Surely those rumours re Truss dropping the guaranteed 4 weeks holiday are some wind up .

    How on earth is removing that guarantee any sort of vote winner or are the Tories now so arrogant that they think they can get away with anything.

    If anything people should have more holidays not less.
  • FF43 said:

    Pulling that stunt didn't pay off the last time in the end, and it won't if they try it again now.

    Let's say independence is supported by 49%; opposed by 30% with 20% no opinion. Is the 30% going to prevail?
    If Independence requires the support of 50% of the electorate there's no point in anyone bothering to turn out to vote against it. The result would be a very negative campaign because voters wouldn't need to be encouraged to vote no, just not to bother to vote.
  • That's unfair; people can forsee things without wanting them to happen. The confusion of "what I think will probably happen" and "what I want to happen" is the sort of magical thinking that underpins Trumpism and some of the aspects of UK politics that make me despair.

    (Seriously. People have drawn convincing connections between the "name it and claim it" strand of evangelicalism and the triumph of Trump.)

    All the evidence we have of Truss's views on economics points to her being so dry that, if she were a Martini, people would be flocking to drink her. If she were a desert, there would be a disaster appeal to support the desperate people living there. Getting rid of protections for workers is an electorally dumb idea, but also the kind of thing that an idealogue might do, given two years and a seventy seat majority.

    Pointing that out doesn't mean that anyone wants Truss to fail. Just that she is very likely to do so. Unless she reverse ferrets in the next 48 hours.
    @HYUFD cannot accept Johnson’s rejection and simply has not come to terms with Truss taking office from him

    I doubt he ever will
  • With you - no - and you compound it with your last sentence

    You want Truss to fail and it is very obvious in many of your posts
    HYUFD is dire on Truss. It's sad.
This discussion has been closed.