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Some worrying findings for the Tories from Opinium – politicalbetting.com

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Comments

  • FF43FF43 Posts: 14,025
    pm215 said:

    I admit I have to be persuaded by her, but at least let her get in office and start the post Johnson age

    I think this is the party's fault for having the leadership election take so long -- it's left a big gap where the result is clear and the only thing left to do is speculate about what the new incumbent will do. And Truss has hardly been being careful to avoid providing fuel for speculation about potential daft policies...
    I think the long leadership election has been useful in allowing us to get to know the candidates. Basically it has confirmed my previous view of Sunak: somewhat crap but in the absence of better alternatives he would make an acceptable PM. Liz Truss? I thought she would comfortably beat the low bar of the worst prime minister of our life times. Now I am not at all sure.

    The problem with the leadership election is not its length. It's the selectorate appear to have chosen the wrong candidate, despite knowing how bad she is.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,716

    ...

    Scott_xP said:

    TRUSS CABINET REVEALED
    Based on multiple converstions with aides and ministers, this is my current understanding of the Truss cabinet. Caveat: the white board is not finalised 1/ https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1566166456164810752/photo/1

    I still can’t understand the political optics of Rees-Mogg at business. That in itself is political suicide
    Rees Mogg is a combative Minister. If he's being appointed, it indicates that BEIS is being lined up for a (well-deserved imo) kick up the bum.
    Being a combative minister, and actually carrying departments / people with you toward change, are two different things.

    There’s no chance in hell Mogg can actually deliver in that role
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 1,816

    CatMan said:

    Scott_xP said:

    TRUSS CABINET REVEALED
    Based on multiple converstions with aides and ministers, this is my current understanding of the Truss cabinet. Caveat: the white board is not finalised 1/ https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1566166456164810752/photo/1

    Kwasi Kwarteng has very woke views of the Empire. I look forward to him abandoning them.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/aug/30/ghosts-of-empire-what-kwasi-kwartengs-book-tells-us-about-him
    Nothing to do with his views on the Empire, but I'm not overjoyed at him being lined up for the COTE job.
    He needs to delete this Tweet from last year pronto

    "We are not going to lower the standards of workers’ rights

    The UK has one of the best workers’ rights records in the world - going further than the EU in many areas

    We want to protect and enhance workers’ rights going forward, not row back on them
    "

    https://twitter.com/KwasiKwarteng/status/1349832237647327236?s=20&t=18pvrtfRyL7K1k3OPh7-FA
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,357

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    nico679 said:

    Removing peoples guaranteed 4 weeks holiday seems insane . Not sure vote Tory to lose your holiday rights is going to be a winning slogan .

    Not to mention folk have a problem recruiting.
    How does extending hours and removing holidays help when you can't get anyone as it is?
    S Cambs Council trying to move to a 30 hour week because they have no applicants.
    Truss will simply tell those on UC they either take whatever job they get or get sent down a mine or fracking for gas or lose all their benefits
    You hope she says something as idiotic as that as you hate Johnson’s eviction and want Truss to fail

    And you as a representative of the party fills me with dread with comments like that

    You are heading for Corbyn style annihilation and deserve it
    That's unfair; people can forsee things without wanting them to happen. The confusion of "what I think will probably happen" and "what I want to happen" is the sort of magical thinking that underpins Trumpism and some of the aspects of UK politics that make me despair.

    (Seriously. People have drawn convincing connections between the "name it and claim it" strand of evangelicalism and the triumph of Trump.)

    All the evidence we have of Truss's views on economics points to her being so dry that, if she were a Martini, people would be flocking to drink her. If she were a desert, there would be a disaster appeal to support the desperate people living there. Getting rid of protections for workers is an electorally dumb idea, but also the kind of thing that an idealogue might do, given two years and a seventy seat majority.

    Pointing that out doesn't mean that anyone wants Truss to fail. Just that she is very likely to do so. Unless she reverse ferrets in the next 48 hours.
    @HYUFD cannot accept Johnson’s rejection and simply has not come to terms with Truss taking office from him

    I doubt he ever will
    We will see what happens, if Truss gets a clear and sustained poll lead fair enough. If Starmer however wins the next election comfortably then it will show removing Boris was a mistake
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    nico679 said:

    Removing peoples guaranteed 4 weeks holiday seems insane . Not sure vote Tory to lose your holiday rights is going to be a winning slogan .

    Not to mention folk have a problem recruiting.
    How does extending hours and removing holidays help when you can't get anyone as it is?
    S Cambs Council trying to move to a 30 hour week because they have no applicants.
    Truss will simply tell those on UC they either take whatever job they get or get sent down a mine or fracking for gas or lose all their benefits
    You hope she says something as idiotic as that as you hate Johnson’s eviction and want Truss to fail

    And you as a representative of the party fills me with dread with comments like that

    You are heading for Corbyn style annihilation and deserve it
    You do realise I was being sarcastic.

    Though given Truss' expected first acts I would not be surprised if it was not a million miles off
    With you - no - and you compound it with your last sentence

    You want Truss to fail and it is very obvious in many of your posts
    HYUFD is dire on Truss. It's sad.
    Johnson rejects his views in tomorrow's Express

    https://twitter.com/TmorrowsPapers/status/1566160379675303946?t=DHFqNPnwGOUkpAXe6JdxBA&s=19
  • CatMan said:

    Scott_xP said:

    TRUSS CABINET REVEALED
    Based on multiple converstions with aides and ministers, this is my current understanding of the Truss cabinet. Caveat: the white board is not finalised 1/ https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1566166456164810752/photo/1

    Kwasi Kwarteng has very woke views of the Empire. I look forward to him abandoning them.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/aug/30/ghosts-of-empire-what-kwasi-kwartengs-book-tells-us-about-him
    Bit unsound on the Scotch question also. I'm sure he can accomodate a new view on the issue though.


  • HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    nico679 said:

    Removing peoples guaranteed 4 weeks holiday seems insane . Not sure vote Tory to lose your holiday rights is going to be a winning slogan .

    Not to mention folk have a problem recruiting.
    How does extending hours and removing holidays help when you can't get anyone as it is?
    S Cambs Council trying to move to a 30 hour week because they have no applicants.
    Truss will simply tell those on UC they either take whatever job they get or get sent down a mine or fracking for gas or lose all their benefits
    UC jobseeker requirements were stiffened up a few days ago; however, you might find that even by the standards of S Cambs Council, many of these claimants are borderline unemployable.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 14,025

    FF43 said:

    Pulling that stunt didn't pay off the last time in the end, and it won't if they try it again now.

    Let's say independence is supported by 49%; opposed by 30% with 20% no opinion. Is the 30% going to prevail?
    If Independence requires the support of 50% of the electorate there's no point in anyone bothering to turn out to vote against it. The result would be a very negative campaign because voters wouldn't need to be encouraged to vote no, just not to bother to vote.
    Yes. And the opposite also applies. There is no downside to voting yes if you are a "Heart says aye; Head says no." type
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,423
    Any predictions for what percentage Rishi will get on Monday? I'm going with 43%.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 1,816
    edited September 2022
    Hilary Benn predicted the future better than The Simpsons did:

    "Brexiters scorn the protections the EU affords UK employees, and would like to hold a bonfire of ‘red tape’ on safety, working hours, pensions and more"

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/06/leave-campaign-workers-rights-brexiters-british
  • pm215pm215 Posts: 555

    All the evidence we have of Truss's views on economics points to her being so dry that, if she were a Martini, people would be flocking to drink her. If she were a desert, there would be a disaster appeal to support the desperate people living there. Getting rid of protections for workers is an electorally dumb idea, but also the kind of thing that an idealogue might do, given two years and a seventy seat majority.

    Pointing that out doesn't mean that anyone wants Truss to fail. Just that she is very likely to do so. Unless she reverse ferrets in the next 48 hours.

    Mmm, that for me is one of the big unknowns -- to what extent is Truss going to push through with stuff she believes in or has said, and to what extent is are we going to see a lot of kite-flying that gets a few headlines but then gets quietly dropped or back-burnered if it gets too much pushback?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    CatMan said:

    Scott_xP said:

    TRUSS CABINET REVEALED
    Based on multiple converstions with aides and ministers, this is my current understanding of the Truss cabinet. Caveat: the white board is not finalised 1/ https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1566166456164810752/photo/1

    Kwasi Kwarteng has very woke views of the Empire. I look forward to him abandoning them.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/aug/30/ghosts-of-empire-what-kwasi-kwartengs-book-tells-us-about-him
    In favour of, what, GA Henty and the dimmer bits of Kipling? The more intelligent gammon has accepted at this stage that the empire was at best morally *neutral* and was Britain furthering her own interests by all (just about) legitimate means. As the Guardian piece says his views are uncontentious. But perhaps you feel that they lack the humble gratitude you would expect from someone of Ghanaian origin?
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    nico679 said:

    Removing peoples guaranteed 4 weeks holiday seems insane . Not sure vote Tory to lose your holiday rights is going to be a winning slogan .

    Not to mention folk have a problem recruiting.
    How does extending hours and removing holidays help when you can't get anyone as it is?
    S Cambs Council trying to move to a 30 hour week because they have no applicants.
    Truss will simply tell those on UC they either take whatever job they get or get sent down a mine or fracking for gas or lose all their benefits
    You hope she says something as idiotic as that as you hate Johnson’s eviction and want Truss to fail

    And you as a representative of the party fills me with dread with comments like that

    You are heading for Corbyn style annihilation and deserve it
    That's unfair; people can forsee things without wanting them to happen. The confusion of "what I think will probably happen" and "what I want to happen" is the sort of magical thinking that underpins Trumpism and some of the aspects of UK politics that make me despair.

    (Seriously. People have drawn convincing connections between the "name it and claim it" strand of evangelicalism and the triumph of Trump.)

    All the evidence we have of Truss's views on economics points to her being so dry that, if she were a Martini, people would be flocking to drink her. If she were a desert, there would be a disaster appeal to support the desperate people living there. Getting rid of protections for workers is an electorally dumb idea, but also the kind of thing that an idealogue might do, given two years and a seventy seat majority.

    Pointing that out doesn't mean that anyone wants Truss to fail. Just that she is very likely to do so. Unless she reverse ferrets in the next 48 hours.
    @HYUFD cannot accept Johnson’s rejection and simply has not come to terms with Truss taking office from him

    I doubt he ever will
    We will see what happens, if Truss gets a clear and sustained poll lead fair enough. If Starmer however wins the next election comfortably then it will show removing Boris was a mistake
    No it will not

    It will show the party lost credibility and simply did not address the people's fears and concerns and totally misjudged the voters
  • It’ll be interesting to see who Truss makes Attorney General. Is there qualified Tory lawyer in the Commons who will be as willing to debase the law and themselves as Braverman has been?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 14,025

    FF43 said:

    Eabhal said:

    Good evening

    It seems PB has decided Truss is over before she even takes office and the policies announced

    I have no idea why she thinks JRM and Dorries should be in her cabinet other than some plot to prevent 2 by elections as Johnson sends them to the Lords

    However, I am more restrained as I haven't a clue what she will announce next week, but I would be surprised if she and those around her do not provide an extensive support package for consumers and as importantly businesses, especially small businesses

    A package well targeted and very pro business may well change the narrative and have some red faces on here

    I admit I have to be persuaded by her, but at least let her get in office and start the post Johnson age

    Her poll ratings are poor but even Starmer is only on 29% tonight

    Truth is disenchantment , worry and fear stalks the political class as they attempt to do the impossible and make the cost of living crisis disappear as if it is not real when it is a direct consequence of the war with Russia which only ends when that does

    The polling indeed suggests none of the above is wanted in number 10.
    If Labour are high 30s, low 40s, 29% thinking Starmer will be best PM suggests their vote is shallow.
    Having said that, its better than the blues right now!
    Everybody's is better than the conservatives who have taken leave of their senses, indeed the only good is Johnson leaving no 10 on Tuesday
    Theyve got a bugger of a job to do to hold it all together this winter, i fear for what might happen. I'm trying to be hopeful but also feeling rather bleakly pessimistic. I just think its too big. For anyone. Starmers intervention already looks ludicrously naive and undercooked. But it does at least exist.
    Starmer's solution was far too generous to people on higher incomes. It really needs to be Sunak's (x4) or similar.
    Starmer calls this correctly in terms of scale, I think. May not actually be enough. Also true that massive subsidy can't go on indefinitely.

    Sunak's plan is woefully inadequate, over-complicated and creates too many edge cases. If you want to taper the support the best and easiest way to do this is to cap fuel prices for everyone and claw some or all of it back through higher income tax rates. That's the way to do it, but probably not politically acceptable.
    If his propossl exceeds whatever Truss anounces he is closer on calling the scale correctly but will still be woefully short of what is required to avert disaster and only looks at the next 6 months. Its completely damning of the Tories response so far that Starmers plan has not been dismissed as an expensive sticking plaster for the amputation ward.
    The Tories are screwed if they underbid Starmer's plan, calling it "a sticking plaster". Bear in mind they have come up with nothing at all yet for the latest prices, which are already live for businesses. They appear to have no concept of the crisis the country faces.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 1,816
    edited September 2022
    IshmaelZ said:

    CatMan said:

    Scott_xP said:

    TRUSS CABINET REVEALED
    Based on multiple converstions with aides and ministers, this is my current understanding of the Truss cabinet. Caveat: the white board is not finalised 1/ https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1566166456164810752/photo/1

    Kwasi Kwarteng has very woke views of the Empire. I look forward to him abandoning them.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/aug/30/ghosts-of-empire-what-kwasi-kwartengs-book-tells-us-about-him
    In favour of, what, GA Henty and the dimmer bits of Kipling? The more intelligent gammon has accepted at this stage that the empire was at best morally *neutral* and was Britain furthering her own interests by all (just about) legitimate means. As the Guardian piece says his views are uncontentious. But perhaps you feel that they lack the humble gratitude you would expect from someone of Ghanaian origin?
    I should have put "Woke" in quotation marks.
  • The instinctive belief on the Tory right that the only way for businesses to succeed is to treat their employees as badly as possible shows just how little they understand about business. You can’t win by racing to the bottom.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    nico679 said:

    Removing peoples guaranteed 4 weeks holiday seems insane . Not sure vote Tory to lose your holiday rights is going to be a winning slogan .

    Not to mention folk have a problem recruiting.
    How does extending hours and removing holidays help when you can't get anyone as it is?
    S Cambs Council trying to move to a 30 hour week because they have no applicants.
    Truss will simply tell those on UC they either take whatever job they get or get sent down a mine or fracking for gas or lose all their benefits
    You hope she says something as idiotic as that as you hate Johnson’s eviction and want Truss to fail

    And you as a representative of the party fills me with dread with comments like that

    You are heading for Corbyn style annihilation and deserve it
    That's unfair; people can forsee things without wanting them to happen. The confusion of "what I think will probably happen" and "what I want to happen" is the sort of magical thinking that underpins Trumpism and some of the aspects of UK politics that make me despair.

    (Seriously. People have drawn convincing connections between the "name it and claim it" strand of evangelicalism and the triumph of Trump.)

    All the evidence we have of Truss's views on economics points to her being so dry that, if she were a Martini, people would be flocking to drink her. If she were a desert, there would be a disaster appeal to support the desperate people living there. Getting rid of protections for workers is an electorally dumb idea, but also the kind of thing that an idealogue might do, given two years and a seventy seat majority.

    Pointing that out doesn't mean that anyone wants Truss to fail. Just that she is very likely to do so. Unless she reverse ferrets in the next 48 hours.
    @HYUFD cannot accept Johnson’s rejection and simply has not come to terms with Truss taking office from him

    I doubt he ever will
    We will see what happens, if Truss gets a clear and sustained poll lead fair enough. If Starmer however wins the next election comfortably then it will show removing Boris was a mistake
    No, it would just show that choosing Dizzy Lizzy wasa mistake.
  • Andy_JS said:

    Any predictions for what percentage Rishi will get on Monday? I'm going with 43%.

    I think it will be 52/48 to Sunak.

    (and then I'll wake up....)
  • Andy_JS said:

    Any predictions for what percentage Rishi will get on Monday? I'm going with 43%.

    I think it will be 52/48 to Sunak.

    (and then I'll wake up....)
    65/35
  • The instinctive belief on the Tory right that the only way for businesses to succeed is to treat their employees as badly as possible shows just how little they understand about business. You can’t win by racing to the bottom.

    The logic of that argument is that government intervention is unnecessary because it is in business's own self-interest to treat employees well.
  • pm215 said:

    All the evidence we have of Truss's views on economics points to her being so dry that, if she were a Martini, people would be flocking to drink her. If she were a desert, there would be a disaster appeal to support the desperate people living there. Getting rid of protections for workers is an electorally dumb idea, but also the kind of thing that an idealogue might do, given two years and a seventy seat majority.

    Pointing that out doesn't mean that anyone wants Truss to fail. Just that she is very likely to do so. Unless she reverse ferrets in the next 48 hours.

    Mmm, that for me is one of the big unknowns -- to what extent is Truss going to push through with stuff she believes in or has said, and to what extent is are we going to see a lot of kite-flying that gets a few headlines but then gets quietly dropped or back-burnered if it gets too much pushback?
    That's the big unkown, and the timings don't really work for Truss there.

    If you are going to do full-on liberalisation, it's going to hurt before it works, and starting it two years before a General Election is foolishly brave. Especially since it will take a year(?) or more to get anything substansive into law.

    But winning an election on a manifesto of "bonfire of nice red tape"... that's tricky as well. Possible from opposition if a centrist government has stuffed up, but tricky if your pitch is "my party has stuffed up badly enough for us to plan radical changes, but not so badly as to discredit us as a party". Especially since that was basically BoJo's pitch in 2019.

    There might be a path through, but.... Tricky.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 29,264
    According to the legendary @ShippersUnbound Lord Frosty Frost was holding out to be Foreign Sec having declared loftily he was unwilling to serve in a Sunak cabinet. I have followed closely courtiers that hover around govns.. there has been no one as delusional as @DavidGHFrost
    https://twitter.com/steverichards14/status/1566173873560748032
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,423

    It’ll be interesting to see who Truss makes Attorney General. Is there qualified Tory lawyer in the Commons who will be as willing to debase the law and themselves as Braverman has been?

    Edward Timpson is number two in the department atm.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 29,264
    Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy demanded an apology after Biden called MAGA leaders' behavior semi-fascist. Dana Milbank's "apology" in response is worth sharing.
    https://twitter.com/AnitaBart/status/1566090348421840896/photo/1
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,110
    edited September 2022
    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    Eabhal said:

    Good evening

    It seems PB has decided Truss is over before she even takes office and the policies announced

    I have no idea why she thinks JRM and Dorries should be in her cabinet other than some plot to prevent 2 by elections as Johnson sends them to the Lords

    However, I am more restrained as I haven't a clue what she will announce next week, but I would be surprised if she and those around her do not provide an extensive support package for consumers and as importantly businesses, especially small businesses

    A package well targeted and very pro business may well change the narrative and have some red faces on here

    I admit I have to be persuaded by her, but at least let her get in office and start the post Johnson age

    Her poll ratings are poor but even Starmer is only on 29% tonight

    Truth is disenchantment , worry and fear stalks the political class as they attempt to do the impossible and make the cost of living crisis disappear as if it is not real when it is a direct consequence of the war with Russia which only ends when that does

    The polling indeed suggests none of the above is wanted in number 10.
    If Labour are high 30s, low 40s, 29% thinking Starmer will be best PM suggests their vote is shallow.
    Having said that, its better than the blues right now!
    Everybody's is better than the conservatives who have taken leave of their senses, indeed the only good is Johnson leaving no 10 on Tuesday
    Theyve got a bugger of a job to do to hold it all together this winter, i fear for what might happen. I'm trying to be hopeful but also feeling rather bleakly pessimistic. I just think its too big. For anyone. Starmers intervention already looks ludicrously naive and undercooked. But it does at least exist.
    Starmer's solution was far too generous to people on higher incomes. It really needs to be Sunak's (x4) or similar.
    Starmer calls this correctly in terms of scale, I think. May not actually be enough. Also true that massive subsidy can't go on indefinitely.

    Sunak's plan is woefully inadequate, over-complicated and creates too many edge cases. If you want to taper the support the best and easiest way to do this is to cap fuel prices for everyone and claw some or all of it back through higher income tax rates. That's the way to do it, but probably not politically acceptable.
    If his propossl exceeds whatever Truss anounces he is closer on calling the scale correctly but will still be woefully short of what is required to avert disaster and only looks at the next 6 months. Its completely damning of the Tories response so far that Starmers plan has not been dismissed as an expensive sticking plaster for the amputation ward.
    The Tories are screwed if they underbid Starmer's plan, calling it "a sticking plaster". Bear in mind they have come up with nothing at all yet for the latest prices, which are already live for businesses. They appear to have no concept of the crisis the country faces.
    Are massive handouts to those on the higher rate really the best way to deal with this?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    Pulling that stunt didn't pay off the last time in the end, and it won't if they try it again now.

    Let's say independence is supported by 49%; opposed by 30% with 20% no opinion. Is the 30% going to prevail?
    If Independence requires the support of 50% of the electorate there's no point in anyone bothering to turn out to vote against it. The result would be a very negative campaign because voters wouldn't need to be encouraged to vote no, just not to bother to vote.
    Yes. And the opposite also applies. There is no downside to voting yes if you are a "Heart says aye; Head says no." type
    Well, yes there is, because you might win and your head wouldn't like that. Are you saying the 50% of the electorate figure is forever unachievable? Why? Norway 1905, 99.95% yes on an 85% turnout.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 55,355
    edited September 2022
    Scott_xP said:

    According to the legendary @ShippersUnbound Lord Frosty Frost was holding out to be Foreign Sec having declared loftily he was unwilling to serve in a Sunak cabinet. I have followed closely courtiers that hover around govns.. there has been no one as delusional as @DavidGHFrost
    https://twitter.com/steverichards14/status/1566173873560748032

    Rare for us to agree but absolutely on this
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 25,298

    The instinctive belief on the Tory right that the only way for businesses to succeed is to treat their employees as badly as possible shows just how little they understand about business. You can’t win by racing to the bottom.

    The logic of that argument is that government intervention is unnecessary because it is in business's own self-interest to treat employees well.
    Employment law/policy since the 80's at least has been predicated on the assumption there are more employees than vacancies.
    This has changed.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,190
    The only good news in the country right now appears to be the fact that the interminable and terminally dull Sunak vs Truss leadership contest is finally about to be over.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 14,025
    pm215 said:

    All the evidence we have of Truss's views on economics points to her being so dry that, if she were a Martini, people would be flocking to drink her. If she were a desert, there would be a disaster appeal to support the desperate people living there. Getting rid of protections for workers is an electorally dumb idea, but also the kind of thing that an idealogue might do, given two years and a seventy seat majority.

    Pointing that out doesn't mean that anyone wants Truss to fail. Just that she is very likely to do so. Unless she reverse ferrets in the next 48 hours.

    Mmm, that for me is one of the big unknowns -- to what extent is Truss going to push through with stuff she believes in or has said, and to what extent is are we going to see a lot of kite-flying that gets a few headlines but then gets quietly dropped or back-burnered if it gets too much pushback?
    I suspect she's overcommited on the rhetoric. She has nailed her mast to lower taxes, implying smaller state, at a time when demands for state intervention have rarely been higher and where borrowing your way through the tax/spend contradiction is closed off due to inflation. She will lose whatever credibility she still has if she doesn't lower taxes but will be damned if she doesn't keep the spending taps open.
  • ...

    Scott_xP said:

    TRUSS CABINET REVEALED
    Based on multiple converstions with aides and ministers, this is my current understanding of the Truss cabinet. Caveat: the white board is not finalised 1/ https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1566166456164810752/photo/1

    I still can’t understand the political optics of Rees-Mogg at business. That in itself is political suicide
    Rees Mogg is a combative Minister. If he's being appointed, it indicates that BEIS is being lined up for a (well-deserved imo) kick up the bum.
    Being a combative minister, and actually carrying departments / people with you toward change, are two different things.

    There’s no chance in hell Mogg can actually deliver in that role
    You could be right. But given the utter wanton cock up that that department has made of everything for the past 30 odd years, the decision to give them some brutality is an understandable one.
  • "Even on her best attributes - such as being principled - views of Liz Truss amongst Conservative voters have actually declined over the campaign despite her polling...."

    Principled? Seriously? A woman who apparently sells out anyone if she can clamber a bit higher up the greasy pole?

    Somebody in Opinium must have put that question in for a laugh....
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 14,025
    FF43 said:

    pm215 said:

    All the evidence we have of Truss's views on economics points to her being so dry that, if she were a Martini, people would be flocking to drink her. If she were a desert, there would be a disaster appeal to support the desperate people living there. Getting rid of protections for workers is an electorally dumb idea, but also the kind of thing that an idealogue might do, given two years and a seventy seat majority.

    Pointing that out doesn't mean that anyone wants Truss to fail. Just that she is very likely to do so. Unless she reverse ferrets in the next 48 hours.

    Mmm, that for me is one of the big unknowns -- to what extent is Truss going to push through with stuff she believes in or has said, and to what extent is are we going to see a lot of kite-flying that gets a few headlines but then gets quietly dropped or back-burnered if it gets too much pushback?
    I suspect she's overcommited on the rhetoric. She has nailed her mast to lower taxes, implying smaller state, at a time when demands for state intervention have rarely been higher and where borrowing your way through the tax/spend contradiction is closed off due to inflation. She will lose whatever credibility she still has if she doesn't lower taxes but will be damned if she doesn't keep the spending taps open.
    And BTW, I doubt Kwarteng is the clever Chancellor that will get her off the fiscal hook she has impaled herself on.
  • The instinctive belief on the Tory right that the only way for businesses to succeed is to treat their employees as badly as possible shows just how little they understand about business. You can’t win by racing to the bottom.

    The logic of that argument is that government intervention is unnecessary because it is in business's own self-interest to treat employees well.
    That’s what good businesses do. Unfortunately, not all businesses are that good and employees therefore need protections.

  • FF43FF43 Posts: 14,025
    RobD said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    Eabhal said:

    Good evening

    It seems PB has decided Truss is over before she even takes office and the policies announced

    I have no idea why she thinks JRM and Dorries should be in her cabinet other than some plot to prevent 2 by elections as Johnson sends them to the Lords

    However, I am more restrained as I haven't a clue what she will announce next week, but I would be surprised if she and those around her do not provide an extensive support package for consumers and as importantly businesses, especially small businesses

    A package well targeted and very pro business may well change the narrative and have some red faces on here

    I admit I have to be persuaded by her, but at least let her get in office and start the post Johnson age

    Her poll ratings are poor but even Starmer is only on 29% tonight

    Truth is disenchantment , worry and fear stalks the political class as they attempt to do the impossible and make the cost of living crisis disappear as if it is not real when it is a direct consequence of the war with Russia which only ends when that does

    The polling indeed suggests none of the above is wanted in number 10.
    If Labour are high 30s, low 40s, 29% thinking Starmer will be best PM suggests their vote is shallow.
    Having said that, its better than the blues right now!
    Everybody's is better than the conservatives who have taken leave of their senses, indeed the only good is Johnson leaving no 10 on Tuesday
    Theyve got a bugger of a job to do to hold it all together this winter, i fear for what might happen. I'm trying to be hopeful but also feeling rather bleakly pessimistic. I just think its too big. For anyone. Starmers intervention already looks ludicrously naive and undercooked. But it does at least exist.
    Starmer's solution was far too generous to people on higher incomes. It really needs to be Sunak's (x4) or similar.
    Starmer calls this correctly in terms of scale, I think. May not actually be enough. Also true that massive subsidy can't go on indefinitely.

    Sunak's plan is woefully inadequate, over-complicated and creates too many edge cases. If you want to taper the support the best and easiest way to do this is to cap fuel prices for everyone and claw some or all of it back through higher income tax rates. That's the way to do it, but probably not politically acceptable.
    If his propossl exceeds whatever Truss anounces he is closer on calling the scale correctly but will still be woefully short of what is required to avert disaster and only looks at the next 6 months. Its completely damning of the Tories response so far that Starmers plan has not been dismissed as an expensive sticking plaster for the amputation ward.
    The Tories are screwed if they underbid Starmer's plan, calling it "a sticking plaster". Bear in mind they have come up with nothing at all yet for the latest prices, which are already live for businesses. They appear to have no concept of the crisis the country faces.
    Are massive handouts to those on the higher rate really the best way to deal with this?
    Yes. What's your better way?
  • CatMan said:

    Scott_xP said:

    TRUSS CABINET REVEALED
    Based on multiple converstions with aides and ministers, this is my current understanding of the Truss cabinet. Caveat: the white board is not finalised 1/ https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1566166456164810752/photo/1

    Kwasi Kwarteng has very woke views of the Empire. I look forward to him abandoning them.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/aug/30/ghosts-of-empire-what-kwasi-kwartengs-book-tells-us-about-him
    But an interesting promotion for James Cleverley.
    This man confirms that nominative determination is a load of rubbish.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,110
    FF43 said:

    RobD said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    Eabhal said:

    Good evening

    It seems PB has decided Truss is over before she even takes office and the policies announced

    I have no idea why she thinks JRM and Dorries should be in her cabinet other than some plot to prevent 2 by elections as Johnson sends them to the Lords

    However, I am more restrained as I haven't a clue what she will announce next week, but I would be surprised if she and those around her do not provide an extensive support package for consumers and as importantly businesses, especially small businesses

    A package well targeted and very pro business may well change the narrative and have some red faces on here

    I admit I have to be persuaded by her, but at least let her get in office and start the post Johnson age

    Her poll ratings are poor but even Starmer is only on 29% tonight

    Truth is disenchantment , worry and fear stalks the political class as they attempt to do the impossible and make the cost of living crisis disappear as if it is not real when it is a direct consequence of the war with Russia which only ends when that does

    The polling indeed suggests none of the above is wanted in number 10.
    If Labour are high 30s, low 40s, 29% thinking Starmer will be best PM suggests their vote is shallow.
    Having said that, its better than the blues right now!
    Everybody's is better than the conservatives who have taken leave of their senses, indeed the only good is Johnson leaving no 10 on Tuesday
    Theyve got a bugger of a job to do to hold it all together this winter, i fear for what might happen. I'm trying to be hopeful but also feeling rather bleakly pessimistic. I just think its too big. For anyone. Starmers intervention already looks ludicrously naive and undercooked. But it does at least exist.
    Starmer's solution was far too generous to people on higher incomes. It really needs to be Sunak's (x4) or similar.
    Starmer calls this correctly in terms of scale, I think. May not actually be enough. Also true that massive subsidy can't go on indefinitely.

    Sunak's plan is woefully inadequate, over-complicated and creates too many edge cases. If you want to taper the support the best and easiest way to do this is to cap fuel prices for everyone and claw some or all of it back through higher income tax rates. That's the way to do it, but probably not politically acceptable.
    If his propossl exceeds whatever Truss anounces he is closer on calling the scale correctly but will still be woefully short of what is required to avert disaster and only looks at the next 6 months. Its completely damning of the Tories response so far that Starmers plan has not been dismissed as an expensive sticking plaster for the amputation ward.
    The Tories are screwed if they underbid Starmer's plan, calling it "a sticking plaster". Bear in mind they have come up with nothing at all yet for the latest prices, which are already live for businesses. They appear to have no concept of the crisis the country faces.
    Are massive handouts to those on the higher rate really the best way to deal with this?
    Yes. What's your better way?
    One that doesn't involve paying the richest people in the country for their energy.
  • FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    pm215 said:

    All the evidence we have of Truss's views on economics points to her being so dry that, if she were a Martini, people would be flocking to drink her. If she were a desert, there would be a disaster appeal to support the desperate people living there. Getting rid of protections for workers is an electorally dumb idea, but also the kind of thing that an idealogue might do, given two years and a seventy seat majority.

    Pointing that out doesn't mean that anyone wants Truss to fail. Just that she is very likely to do so. Unless she reverse ferrets in the next 48 hours.

    Mmm, that for me is one of the big unknowns -- to what extent is Truss going to push through with stuff she believes in or has said, and to what extent is are we going to see a lot of kite-flying that gets a few headlines but then gets quietly dropped or back-burnered if it gets too much pushback?
    I suspect she's overcommited on the rhetoric. She has nailed her mast to lower taxes, implying smaller state, at a time when demands for state intervention have rarely been higher and where borrowing your way through the tax/spend contradiction is closed off due to inflation. She will lose whatever credibility she still has if she doesn't lower taxes but will be damned if she doesn't keep the spending taps open.
    And BTW, I doubt Kwarteng is the clever Chancellor that will get her off the fiscal hook she has impaled herself on.
    This is utter nonsense. Truss has not said what she'll do. She's told us which way her instincts lie, spoken specifically about help for businesses and help for the most vulnerable, and that's it. She has quite deliberately avoided getting into a bidding war with Sunak, and consequently has lowered expectations, giving herself maximum flexibility.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    pm215 said:

    All the evidence we have of Truss's views on economics points to her being so dry that, if she were a Martini, people would be flocking to drink her. If she were a desert, there would be a disaster appeal to support the desperate people living there. Getting rid of protections for workers is an electorally dumb idea, but also the kind of thing that an idealogue might do, given two years and a seventy seat majority.

    Pointing that out doesn't mean that anyone wants Truss to fail. Just that she is very likely to do so. Unless she reverse ferrets in the next 48 hours.

    Mmm, that for me is one of the big unknowns -- to what extent is Truss going to push through with stuff she believes in or has said, and to what extent is are we going to see a lot of kite-flying that gets a few headlines but then gets quietly dropped or back-burnered if it gets too much pushback?
    I suspect she's overcommited on the rhetoric. She has nailed her mast to lower taxes, implying smaller state, at a time when demands for state intervention have rarely been higher and where borrowing your way through the tax/spend contradiction is closed off due to inflation. She will lose whatever credibility she still has if she doesn't lower taxes but will be damned if she doesn't keep the spending taps open.
    And BTW, I doubt Kwarteng is the clever Chancellor that will get her off the fiscal hook she has impaled herself on.
    Eton, Trinity and Harvard, and I believe he is a mate of rcs1000. sounds formidable to me.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 30,637
    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    pm215 said:

    All the evidence we have of Truss's views on economics points to her being so dry that, if she were a Martini, people would be flocking to drink her. If she were a desert, there would be a disaster appeal to support the desperate people living there. Getting rid of protections for workers is an electorally dumb idea, but also the kind of thing that an idealogue might do, given two years and a seventy seat majority.

    Pointing that out doesn't mean that anyone wants Truss to fail. Just that she is very likely to do so. Unless she reverse ferrets in the next 48 hours.

    Mmm, that for me is one of the big unknowns -- to what extent is Truss going to push through with stuff she believes in or has said, and to what extent is are we going to see a lot of kite-flying that gets a few headlines but then gets quietly dropped or back-burnered if it gets too much pushback?
    I suspect she's overcommited on the rhetoric. She has nailed her mast to lower taxes, implying smaller state, at a time when demands for state intervention have rarely been higher and where borrowing your way through the tax/spend contradiction is closed off due to inflation. She will lose whatever credibility she still has if she doesn't lower taxes but will be damned if she doesn't keep the spending taps open.
    And BTW, I doubt Kwarteng is the clever Chancellor that will get her off the fiscal hook she has impaled herself on.
    Yes but he might bind her to the bedposts of Treasury austerity, and gag her from moaning anything too stupid about tax
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 29,264
    CABINET 7
    Iain Duncan Smith is also making clear that he wants a department, but Team Truss don't seem to want that and regard Leader of the House as his natural role. Truss being urged to put her foot down 7/
    https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1566168707860135938
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 29,264
    Is there a market on the first cabinet minister to leave team Truss?
  • FF43 said:

    RobD said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    Eabhal said:

    Good evening

    It seems PB has decided Truss is over before she even takes office and the policies announced

    I have no idea why she thinks JRM and Dorries should be in her cabinet other than some plot to prevent 2 by elections as Johnson sends them to the Lords

    However, I am more restrained as I haven't a clue what she will announce next week, but I would be surprised if she and those around her do not provide an extensive support package for consumers and as importantly businesses, especially small businesses

    A package well targeted and very pro business may well change the narrative and have some red faces on here

    I admit I have to be persuaded by her, but at least let her get in office and start the post Johnson age

    Her poll ratings are poor but even Starmer is only on 29% tonight

    Truth is disenchantment , worry and fear stalks the political class as they attempt to do the impossible and make the cost of living crisis disappear as if it is not real when it is a direct consequence of the war with Russia which only ends when that does

    The polling indeed suggests none of the above is wanted in number 10.
    If Labour are high 30s, low 40s, 29% thinking Starmer will be best PM suggests their vote is shallow.
    Having said that, its better than the blues right now!
    Everybody's is better than the conservatives who have taken leave of their senses, indeed the only good is Johnson leaving no 10 on Tuesday
    Theyve got a bugger of a job to do to hold it all together this winter, i fear for what might happen. I'm trying to be hopeful but also feeling rather bleakly pessimistic. I just think its too big. For anyone. Starmers intervention already looks ludicrously naive and undercooked. But it does at least exist.
    Starmer's solution was far too generous to people on higher incomes. It really needs to be Sunak's (x4) or similar.
    Starmer calls this correctly in terms of scale, I think. May not actually be enough. Also true that massive subsidy can't go on indefinitely.

    Sunak's plan is woefully inadequate, over-complicated and creates too many edge cases. If you want to taper the support the best and easiest way to do this is to cap fuel prices for everyone and claw some or all of it back through higher income tax rates. That's the way to do it, but probably not politically acceptable.
    If his propossl exceeds whatever Truss anounces he is closer on calling the scale correctly but will still be woefully short of what is required to avert disaster and only looks at the next 6 months. Its completely damning of the Tories response so far that Starmers plan has not been dismissed as an expensive sticking plaster for the amputation ward.
    The Tories are screwed if they underbid Starmer's plan, calling it "a sticking plaster". Bear in mind they have come up with nothing at all yet for the latest prices, which are already live for businesses. They appear to have no concept of the crisis the country faces.
    Are massive handouts to those on the higher rate really the best way to deal with this?
    Yes. What's your better way?
    Of course it is not

    It is wrong on every level

    Millionaire footballers and others being subsided by the tax payer is immoral

    I do hope Truss does address this inequality
  • FF43 said:

    pm215 said:

    All the evidence we have of Truss's views on economics points to her being so dry that, if she were a Martini, people would be flocking to drink her. If she were a desert, there would be a disaster appeal to support the desperate people living there. Getting rid of protections for workers is an electorally dumb idea, but also the kind of thing that an idealogue might do, given two years and a seventy seat majority.

    Pointing that out doesn't mean that anyone wants Truss to fail. Just that she is very likely to do so. Unless she reverse ferrets in the next 48 hours.

    Mmm, that for me is one of the big unknowns -- to what extent is Truss going to push through with stuff she believes in or has said, and to what extent is are we going to see a lot of kite-flying that gets a few headlines but then gets quietly dropped or back-burnered if it gets too much pushback?
    I suspect she's overcommited on the rhetoric. She has nailed her mast to lower taxes, implying smaller state, at a time when demands for state intervention have rarely been higher and where borrowing your way through the tax/spend contradiction is closed off due to inflation. She will lose whatever credibility she still has if she doesn't lower taxes but will be damned if she doesn't keep the spending taps open.
    A government can do low tax, high spend until there's a run on the pound.

    How long does that give her?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    nico679 said:

    Removing peoples guaranteed 4 weeks holiday seems insane . Not sure vote Tory to lose your holiday rights is going to be a winning slogan .

    Not to mention folk have a problem recruiting.
    How does extending hours and removing holidays help when you can't get anyone as it is?
    S Cambs Council trying to move to a 30 hour week because they have no applicants.
    Truss will simply tell those on UC they either take whatever job they get or get sent down a mine or fracking for gas or lose all their benefits
    You hope she says something as idiotic as that as you hate Johnson’s eviction and want Truss to fail

    And you as a representative of the party fills me with dread with comments like that

    You are heading for Corbyn style annihilation and deserve it
    That's unfair; people can forsee things without wanting them to happen. The confusion of "what I think will probably happen" and "what I want to happen" is the sort of magical thinking that underpins Trumpism and some of the aspects of UK politics that make me despair.

    (Seriously. People have drawn convincing connections between the "name it and claim it" strand of evangelicalism and the triumph of Trump.)

    All the evidence we have of Truss's views on economics points to her being so dry that, if she were a Martini, people would be flocking to drink her. If she were a desert, there would be a disaster appeal to support the desperate people living there. Getting rid of protections for workers is an electorally dumb idea, but also the kind of thing that an idealogue might do, given two years and a seventy seat majority.

    Pointing that out doesn't mean that anyone wants Truss to fail. Just that she is very likely to do so. Unless she reverse ferrets in the next 48 hours.
    @HYUFD cannot accept Johnson’s rejection and simply has not come to terms with Truss taking office from him

    I doubt he ever will
    We will see what happens, if Truss gets a clear and sustained poll lead fair enough. If Starmer however wins the next election comfortably then it will show removing Boris was a mistake
    Both completely unprincipled and barking mad. Because Boris would have carried on as corruptly as ever, with Pincher and partygate style crises every 3 months (look at the theft from the taxpayer to fund Pannick's opinion), and because he is incompetent and useless in a crisis and would have fucked up cost of living at least as badly as truss is about to fuck up.
  • eekeek Posts: 22,078

    FF43 said:

    pm215 said:

    All the evidence we have of Truss's views on economics points to her being so dry that, if she were a Martini, people would be flocking to drink her. If she were a desert, there would be a disaster appeal to support the desperate people living there. Getting rid of protections for workers is an electorally dumb idea, but also the kind of thing that an idealogue might do, given two years and a seventy seat majority.

    Pointing that out doesn't mean that anyone wants Truss to fail. Just that she is very likely to do so. Unless she reverse ferrets in the next 48 hours.

    Mmm, that for me is one of the big unknowns -- to what extent is Truss going to push through with stuff she believes in or has said, and to what extent is are we going to see a lot of kite-flying that gets a few headlines but then gets quietly dropped or back-burnered if it gets too much pushback?
    I suspect she's overcommited on the rhetoric. She has nailed her mast to lower taxes, implying smaller state, at a time when demands for state intervention have rarely been higher and where borrowing your way through the tax/spend contradiction is closed off due to inflation. She will lose whatever credibility she still has if she doesn't lower taxes but will be damned if she doesn't keep the spending taps open.
    A government can do low tax, high spend until there's a run on the pound.

    How long does that give her?
    Looking at what has happened to the pound euro in the last month - that run has already begun..
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 14,025
    RobD said:

    FF43 said:

    RobD said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    Eabhal said:

    Good evening

    It seems PB has decided Truss is over before she even takes office and the policies announced

    I have no idea why she thinks JRM and Dorries should be in her cabinet other than some plot to prevent 2 by elections as Johnson sends them to the Lords

    However, I am more restrained as I haven't a clue what she will announce next week, but I would be surprised if she and those around her do not provide an extensive support package for consumers and as importantly businesses, especially small businesses

    A package well targeted and very pro business may well change the narrative and have some red faces on here

    I admit I have to be persuaded by her, but at least let her get in office and start the post Johnson age

    Her poll ratings are poor but even Starmer is only on 29% tonight

    Truth is disenchantment , worry and fear stalks the political class as they attempt to do the impossible and make the cost of living crisis disappear as if it is not real when it is a direct consequence of the war with Russia which only ends when that does

    The polling indeed suggests none of the above is wanted in number 10.
    If Labour are high 30s, low 40s, 29% thinking Starmer will be best PM suggests their vote is shallow.
    Having said that, its better than the blues right now!
    Everybody's is better than the conservatives who have taken leave of their senses, indeed the only good is Johnson leaving no 10 on Tuesday
    Theyve got a bugger of a job to do to hold it all together this winter, i fear for what might happen. I'm trying to be hopeful but also feeling rather bleakly pessimistic. I just think its too big. For anyone. Starmers intervention already looks ludicrously naive and undercooked. But it does at least exist.
    Starmer's solution was far too generous to people on higher incomes. It really needs to be Sunak's (x4) or similar.
    Starmer calls this correctly in terms of scale, I think. May not actually be enough. Also true that massive subsidy can't go on indefinitely.

    Sunak's plan is woefully inadequate, over-complicated and creates too many edge cases. If you want to taper the support the best and easiest way to do this is to cap fuel prices for everyone and claw some or all of it back through higher income tax rates. That's the way to do it, but probably not politically acceptable.
    If his propossl exceeds whatever Truss anounces he is closer on calling the scale correctly but will still be woefully short of what is required to avert disaster and only looks at the next 6 months. Its completely damning of the Tories response so far that Starmers plan has not been dismissed as an expensive sticking plaster for the amputation ward.
    The Tories are screwed if they underbid Starmer's plan, calling it "a sticking plaster". Bear in mind they have come up with nothing at all yet for the latest prices, which are already live for businesses. They appear to have no concept of the crisis the country faces.
    Are massive handouts to those on the higher rate really the best way to deal with this?
    Yes. What's your better way?
    One that doesn't involve paying the richest people in the country for their energy.
    The whole point of upping income tax is so we don't pay the richest people in the country for their energy, ie subsidy gets clawed back. You didn't answer my question - not that I have any right to expect you to do so, of course.

    When I say "best way", I don't mean that the best will actually happen. There will be an instinctive reaction against increasing taxes to pay for the subsidy. That's why I suspect we will end up with something that looks a lot like the Starmer plan, despite the objections to it set out by @Eabhal, apparently shared by yourself.
  • Scott_xP said:

    CABINET 7
    Iain Duncan Smith is also making clear that he wants a department, but Team Truss don't seem to want that and regard Leader of the House as his natural role. Truss being urged to put her foot down 7/
    https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1566168707860135938

    I'm looking forward to when we get an actual government with actual policies rather than the endless stream of rumours.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 29,264
    HYUFD said:

    If Starmer however wins the next election comfortably then it will show removing Boris was a mistake

    No

    It might show that replacing him with Truss was a mistake, but that's a verdict on Truss, not removing BoZo
  • IshmaelZ said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    pm215 said:

    All the evidence we have of Truss's views on economics points to her being so dry that, if she were a Martini, people would be flocking to drink her. If she were a desert, there would be a disaster appeal to support the desperate people living there. Getting rid of protections for workers is an electorally dumb idea, but also the kind of thing that an idealogue might do, given two years and a seventy seat majority.

    Pointing that out doesn't mean that anyone wants Truss to fail. Just that she is very likely to do so. Unless she reverse ferrets in the next 48 hours.

    Mmm, that for me is one of the big unknowns -- to what extent is Truss going to push through with stuff she believes in or has said, and to what extent is are we going to see a lot of kite-flying that gets a few headlines but then gets quietly dropped or back-burnered if it gets too much pushback?
    I suspect she's overcommited on the rhetoric. She has nailed her mast to lower taxes, implying smaller state, at a time when demands for state intervention have rarely been higher and where borrowing your way through the tax/spend contradiction is closed off due to inflation. She will lose whatever credibility she still has if she doesn't lower taxes but will be damned if she doesn't keep the spending taps open.
    And BTW, I doubt Kwarteng is the clever Chancellor that will get her off the fiscal hook she has impaled herself on.
    Eton, Trinity and Harvard, and I believe he is a mate of rcs1000. sounds formidable to me.
    Can he get away with telling Robert that Coldplay are rubbish and Python is a toy language?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,110
    FF43 said:

    RobD said:

    FF43 said:

    RobD said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    Eabhal said:

    Good evening

    It seems PB has decided Truss is over before she even takes office and the policies announced

    I have no idea why she thinks JRM and Dorries should be in her cabinet other than some plot to prevent 2 by elections as Johnson sends them to the Lords

    However, I am more restrained as I haven't a clue what she will announce next week, but I would be surprised if she and those around her do not provide an extensive support package for consumers and as importantly businesses, especially small businesses

    A package well targeted and very pro business may well change the narrative and have some red faces on here

    I admit I have to be persuaded by her, but at least let her get in office and start the post Johnson age

    Her poll ratings are poor but even Starmer is only on 29% tonight

    Truth is disenchantment , worry and fear stalks the political class as they attempt to do the impossible and make the cost of living crisis disappear as if it is not real when it is a direct consequence of the war with Russia which only ends when that does

    The polling indeed suggests none of the above is wanted in number 10.
    If Labour are high 30s, low 40s, 29% thinking Starmer will be best PM suggests their vote is shallow.
    Having said that, its better than the blues right now!
    Everybody's is better than the conservatives who have taken leave of their senses, indeed the only good is Johnson leaving no 10 on Tuesday
    Theyve got a bugger of a job to do to hold it all together this winter, i fear for what might happen. I'm trying to be hopeful but also feeling rather bleakly pessimistic. I just think its too big. For anyone. Starmers intervention already looks ludicrously naive and undercooked. But it does at least exist.
    Starmer's solution was far too generous to people on higher incomes. It really needs to be Sunak's (x4) or similar.
    Starmer calls this correctly in terms of scale, I think. May not actually be enough. Also true that massive subsidy can't go on indefinitely.

    Sunak's plan is woefully inadequate, over-complicated and creates too many edge cases. If you want to taper the support the best and easiest way to do this is to cap fuel prices for everyone and claw some or all of it back through higher income tax rates. That's the way to do it, but probably not politically acceptable.
    If his propossl exceeds whatever Truss anounces he is closer on calling the scale correctly but will still be woefully short of what is required to avert disaster and only looks at the next 6 months. Its completely damning of the Tories response so far that Starmers plan has not been dismissed as an expensive sticking plaster for the amputation ward.
    The Tories are screwed if they underbid Starmer's plan, calling it "a sticking plaster". Bear in mind they have come up with nothing at all yet for the latest prices, which are already live for businesses. They appear to have no concept of the crisis the country faces.
    Are massive handouts to those on the higher rate really the best way to deal with this?
    Yes. What's your better way?
    One that doesn't involve paying the richest people in the country for their energy.
    The whole point of upping income tax is so we don't pay the richest people in the country for their energy, ie subsidy gets clawed back. You didn't answer my question - not that I have any right to expect you to do so, of course.

    When I say "best way", I don't mean that the best will actually happen. There will be an instinctive reaction against increasing taxes to pay for the subsidy. That's why I suspect we will end up with something that looks a lot like the Starmer plan, despite the objections to it set out by @Eabhal, apparently shared by yourself.
    There was a comparison of Starmer's and Sunak's plan posted a week or so ago, showing the later was much more targeted at the lower deciles. A freeze on the price cap is not the only way to support people, and it certainly isn't the most targeted or cost effective.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 14,025

    FF43 said:

    pm215 said:

    All the evidence we have of Truss's views on economics points to her being so dry that, if she were a Martini, people would be flocking to drink her. If she were a desert, there would be a disaster appeal to support the desperate people living there. Getting rid of protections for workers is an electorally dumb idea, but also the kind of thing that an idealogue might do, given two years and a seventy seat majority.

    Pointing that out doesn't mean that anyone wants Truss to fail. Just that she is very likely to do so. Unless she reverse ferrets in the next 48 hours.

    Mmm, that for me is one of the big unknowns -- to what extent is Truss going to push through with stuff she believes in or has said, and to what extent is are we going to see a lot of kite-flying that gets a few headlines but then gets quietly dropped or back-burnered if it gets too much pushback?
    I suspect she's overcommited on the rhetoric. She has nailed her mast to lower taxes, implying smaller state, at a time when demands for state intervention have rarely been higher and where borrowing your way through the tax/spend contradiction is closed off due to inflation. She will lose whatever credibility she still has if she doesn't lower taxes but will be damned if she doesn't keep the spending taps open.
    A government can do low tax, high spend until there's a run on the pound.

    How long does that give her?
    Not my area, but I suspect not long in the current environment where the pound is looking shaky already.
  • eekeek Posts: 22,078

    Scott_xP said:

    CABINET 7
    Iain Duncan Smith is also making clear that he wants a department, but Team Truss don't seem to want that and regard Leader of the House as his natural role. Truss being urged to put her foot down 7/
    https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1566168707860135938

    I'm looking forward to when we get an actual government with actual policies rather than the endless stream of rumours.
    The 30 minutes between the plans being revealed and the plans falling apart should make you happy for 10 of those minutes…
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 29,264

    Python is a toy language?

    You can make some pretty dangerous toys with it :)
  • Scott_xP said:

    HYUFD said:

    If Starmer however wins the next election comfortably then it will show removing Boris was a mistake

    No

    It might show that replacing him with Truss was a mistake, but that's a verdict on Truss, not removing BoZo
    Johnson made sure that any plausible replacement would be worse than him- it was part of his (impressive) survival tactics. An anti-Boris (Hunt, say) would never get the gig. The party's not ready for that.

    I can't entirely believe I'm saying this, but maybe it would have been better to let him bumble on for two more years and face defeat by the electorate.

    Nature's way and all that.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,423
    "A Liz Truss government means the return of the radical right
    As a brutal winter beckons, the Conservative leadership front-runner and her band of free-market ideologues threaten to drag Britain further into economic catastrophe.

    By Andrew Marr"

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-politics/2022/08/andrew-marr-liz-truss-government-radical-right-wing
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 2,373

    IshmaelZ said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    pm215 said:

    All the evidence we have of Truss's views on economics points to her being so dry that, if she were a Martini, people would be flocking to drink her. If she were a desert, there would be a disaster appeal to support the desperate people living there. Getting rid of protections for workers is an electorally dumb idea, but also the kind of thing that an idealogue might do, given two years and a seventy seat majority.

    Pointing that out doesn't mean that anyone wants Truss to fail. Just that she is very likely to do so. Unless she reverse ferrets in the next 48 hours.

    Mmm, that for me is one of the big unknowns -- to what extent is Truss going to push through with stuff she believes in or has said, and to what extent is are we going to see a lot of kite-flying that gets a few headlines but then gets quietly dropped or back-burnered if it gets too much pushback?
    I suspect she's overcommited on the rhetoric. She has nailed her mast to lower taxes, implying smaller state, at a time when demands for state intervention have rarely been higher and where borrowing your way through the tax/spend contradiction is closed off due to inflation. She will lose whatever credibility she still has if she doesn't lower taxes but will be damned if she doesn't keep the spending taps open.
    And BTW, I doubt Kwarteng is the clever Chancellor that will get her off the fiscal hook she has impaled herself on.
    Eton, Trinity and Harvard, and I believe he is a mate of rcs1000. sounds formidable to me.
    Can he get away with telling Robert that Coldplay are rubbish and Python is a toy language?
    Whilst listening to Radiohead and eating a pineapple pizza.
  • Scott_xP said:

    CABINET 7
    Iain Duncan Smith is also making clear that he wants a department, but Team Truss don't seem to want that and regard Leader of the House as his natural role. Truss being urged to put her foot down 7/
    https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1566168707860135938

    I'm looking forward to when we get an actual government with actual policies rather than the endless stream of rumours.
    The last 2+ years must have been torture for you..
  • RobD said:

    FF43 said:

    RobD said:

    FF43 said:

    RobD said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    Eabhal said:

    Good evening

    It seems PB has decided Truss is over before she even takes office and the policies announced

    I have no idea why she thinks JRM and Dorries should be in her cabinet other than some plot to prevent 2 by elections as Johnson sends them to the Lords

    However, I am more restrained as I haven't a clue what she will announce next week, but I would be surprised if she and those around her do not provide an extensive support package for consumers and as importantly businesses, especially small businesses

    A package well targeted and very pro business may well change the narrative and have some red faces on here

    I admit I have to be persuaded by her, but at least let her get in office and start the post Johnson age

    Her poll ratings are poor but even Starmer is only on 29% tonight

    Truth is disenchantment , worry and fear stalks the political class as they attempt to do the impossible and make the cost of living crisis disappear as if it is not real when it is a direct consequence of the war with Russia which only ends when that does

    The polling indeed suggests none of the above is wanted in number 10.
    If Labour are high 30s, low 40s, 29% thinking Starmer will be best PM suggests their vote is shallow.
    Having said that, its better than the blues right now!
    Everybody's is better than the conservatives who have taken leave of their senses, indeed the only good is Johnson leaving no 10 on Tuesday
    Theyve got a bugger of a job to do to hold it all together this winter, i fear for what might happen. I'm trying to be hopeful but also feeling rather bleakly pessimistic. I just think its too big. For anyone. Starmers intervention already looks ludicrously naive and undercooked. But it does at least exist.
    Starmer's solution was far too generous to people on higher incomes. It really needs to be Sunak's (x4) or similar.
    Starmer calls this correctly in terms of scale, I think. May not actually be enough. Also true that massive subsidy can't go on indefinitely.

    Sunak's plan is woefully inadequate, over-complicated and creates too many edge cases. If you want to taper the support the best and easiest way to do this is to cap fuel prices for everyone and claw some or all of it back through higher income tax rates. That's the way to do it, but probably not politically acceptable.
    If his propossl exceeds whatever Truss anounces he is closer on calling the scale correctly but will still be woefully short of what is required to avert disaster and only looks at the next 6 months. Its completely damning of the Tories response so far that Starmers plan has not been dismissed as an expensive sticking plaster for the amputation ward.
    The Tories are screwed if they underbid Starmer's plan, calling it "a sticking plaster". Bear in mind they have come up with nothing at all yet for the latest prices, which are already live for businesses. They appear to have no concept of the crisis the country faces.
    Are massive handouts to those on the higher rate really the best way to deal with this?
    Yes. What's your better way?
    One that doesn't involve paying the richest people in the country for their energy.
    The whole point of upping income tax is so we don't pay the richest people in the country for their energy, ie subsidy gets clawed back. You didn't answer my question - not that I have any right to expect you to do so, of course.

    When I say "best way", I don't mean that the best will actually happen. There will be an instinctive reaction against increasing taxes to pay for the subsidy. That's why I suspect we will end up with something that looks a lot like the Starmer plan, despite the

    objections to it set out by @Eabhal, apparently shared by yourself.
    There was a comparison of Starmer's and Sunak's plan posted a week or so ago, showing the later was much more targeted at the lower deciles. A freeze on the price cap is not the only way to support people, and it certainly isn't the most targeted or cost effective.
    Sunak’s plan was much less generous to low income groups than the Starmer one. It all depends on priorities, really. If the Tories focus on a plan designed to prevent those who don’t need help getting it, the chances are that many on the margins who do need help are going to miss out - and that anything introduced will take longer to deliver.

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 29,264
    edited September 2022

    I can't entirely believe I'm saying this, but maybe it would have been better to let him bumble on for two more years and face defeat by the electorate.

    Nature's way and all that.

    No

    The mistake was to let him bumble on as long as he did.

    They should have VONCed him when they had the chance

    EDIT: If they had kicked him out immediately, I think someone other than Truss would have taken over, and they wouldn't be facing Armageddon at the next election
  • eekeek Posts: 22,078

    Python is a toy language?

    Well it’s not one I would want to have to fix in a hurry.

    White space should be for easy of reading formatting not a block separator
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,110

    RobD said:

    FF43 said:

    RobD said:

    FF43 said:

    RobD said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    Eabhal said:

    Good evening

    It seems PB has decided Truss is over before she even takes office and the policies announced

    I have no idea why she thinks JRM and Dorries should be in her cabinet other than some plot to prevent 2 by elections as Johnson sends them to the Lords

    However, I am more restrained as I haven't a clue what she will announce next week, but I would be surprised if she and those around her do not provide an extensive support package for consumers and as importantly businesses, especially small businesses

    A package well targeted and very pro business may well change the narrative and have some red faces on here

    I admit I have to be persuaded by her, but at least let her get in office and start the post Johnson age

    Her poll ratings are poor but even Starmer is only on 29% tonight

    Truth is disenchantment , worry and fear stalks the political class as they attempt to do the impossible and make the cost of living crisis disappear as if it is not real when it is a direct consequence of the war with Russia which only ends when that does

    The polling indeed suggests none of the above is wanted in number 10.
    If Labour are high 30s, low 40s, 29% thinking Starmer will be best PM suggests their vote is shallow.
    Having said that, its better than the blues right now!
    Everybody's is better than the conservatives who have taken leave of their senses, indeed the only good is Johnson leaving no 10 on Tuesday
    Theyve got a bugger of a job to do to hold it all together this winter, i fear for what might happen. I'm trying to be hopeful but also feeling rather bleakly pessimistic. I just think its too big. For anyone. Starmers intervention already looks ludicrously naive and undercooked. But it does at least exist.
    Starmer's solution was far too generous to people on higher incomes. It really needs to be Sunak's (x4) or similar.
    Starmer calls this correctly in terms of scale, I think. May not actually be enough. Also true that massive subsidy can't go on indefinitely.

    Sunak's plan is woefully inadequate, over-complicated and creates too many edge cases. If you want to taper the support the best and easiest way to do this is to cap fuel prices for everyone and claw some or all of it back through higher income tax rates. That's the way to do it, but probably not politically acceptable.
    If his propossl exceeds whatever Truss anounces he is closer on calling the scale correctly but will still be woefully short of what is required to avert disaster and only looks at the next 6 months. Its completely damning of the Tories response so far that Starmers plan has not been dismissed as an expensive sticking plaster for the amputation ward.
    The Tories are screwed if they underbid Starmer's plan, calling it "a sticking plaster". Bear in mind they have come up with nothing at all yet for the latest prices, which are already live for businesses. They appear to have no concept of the crisis the country faces.
    Are massive handouts to those on the higher rate really the best way to deal with this?
    Yes. What's your better way?
    One that doesn't involve paying the richest people in the country for their energy.
    The whole point of upping income tax is so we don't pay the richest people in the country for their energy, ie subsidy gets clawed back. You didn't answer my question - not that I have any right to expect you to do so, of course.

    When I say "best way", I don't mean that the best will actually happen. There will be an instinctive reaction against increasing taxes to pay for the subsidy. That's why I suspect we will end up with something that looks a lot like the Starmer plan, despite the

    objections to it set out by @Eabhal, apparently shared by yourself.
    There was a comparison of Starmer's and Sunak's plan posted a week or so ago, showing the later was much more targeted at the lower deciles. A freeze on the price cap is not the only way to support people, and it certainly isn't the most targeted or cost effective.
    Sunak’s plan was much less generous to low income groups than the Starmer one. It all depends on priorities, really. If the Tories focus on a plan designed to prevent those who don’t need help getting it, the chances are that many on the margins who do need help are going to miss out - and that anything introduced will take longer to deliver.

    Yes, I was just using it to demonstrate that a freeze of the cap wasn't the only option. You could certainly tweak it to make it much more generous and still end up with it being far more targeted. Just how many billions would be spent on paying the energy bills of higher rate taxpayers if the cap was simply frozen?
  • eekeek Posts: 22,078
    dixiedean said:
    Still no real customers mind you I don’t see many Uk car manufacturers in the new EV world..
  • FF43 said:

    RobD said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    Eabhal said:

    Good evening

    It seems PB has decided Truss is over before she even takes office and the policies announced

    I have no idea why she thinks JRM and Dorries should be in her cabinet other than some plot to prevent 2 by elections as Johnson sends them to the Lords

    However, I am more restrained as I haven't a clue what she will announce next week, but I would be surprised if she and those around her do not provide an extensive support package for consumers and as importantly businesses, especially small businesses

    A package well targeted and very pro business may well change the narrative and have some red faces on here

    I admit I have to be persuaded by her, but at least let her get in office and start the post Johnson age

    Her poll ratings are poor but even Starmer is only on 29% tonight

    Truth is disenchantment , worry and fear stalks the political class as they attempt to do the impossible and make the cost of living crisis disappear as if it is not real when it is a direct consequence of the war with Russia which only ends when that does

    The polling indeed suggests none of the above is wanted in number 10.
    If Labour are high 30s, low 40s, 29% thinking Starmer will be best PM suggests their vote is shallow.
    Having said that, its better than the blues right now!
    Everybody's is better than the conservatives who have taken leave of their senses, indeed the only good is Johnson leaving no 10 on Tuesday
    Theyve got a bugger of a job to do to hold it all together this winter, i fear for what might happen. I'm trying to be hopeful but also feeling rather bleakly pessimistic. I just think its too big. For anyone. Starmers intervention already looks ludicrously naive and undercooked. But it does at least exist.
    Starmer's solution was far too generous to people on higher incomes. It really needs to be Sunak's (x4) or similar.
    Starmer calls this correctly in terms of scale, I think. May not actually be enough. Also true that massive subsidy can't go on indefinitely.

    Sunak's plan is woefully inadequate, over-complicated and creates too many edge cases. If you want to taper the support the best and easiest way to do this is to cap fuel prices for everyone and claw some or all of it back through higher income tax rates. That's the way to do it, but probably not politically acceptable.
    If his propossl exceeds whatever Truss anounces he is closer on calling the scale correctly but will still be woefully short of what is required to avert disaster and only looks at the next 6 months. Its completely damning of the Tories response so far that Starmers plan has not been dismissed as an expensive sticking plaster for the amputation ward.
    The Tories are screwed if they underbid Starmer's plan, calling it "a sticking plaster". Bear in mind they have come up with nothing at all yet for the latest prices, which are already live for businesses. They appear to have no concept of the crisis the country faces.
    Are massive handouts to those on the higher rate really the best way to deal with this?
    Yes. What's your better way?

    Of course it is not
    It is wrong on every level
    Millionaire footballers and others being subsided by the tax payer is immoral
    I do hope Truss does address this inequality
    If universality is the quickest and most effective way to get help to those who need it, there is absolutely nothing immoral about it. The money can always be clawed back from higher earners in other ways.

    How
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 25,298
    edited September 2022
    eek said:

    dixiedean said:
    Still no real customers mind you I don’t see many Uk car manufacturers in the new EV world..
    Yeah. They've promised a lot of well paid work to many folk in an area that desperately needs it. None has been forthcoming.
    A metaphor for the Boris Johnson era?
  • FF43 said:

    RobD said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    Eabhal said:

    Good evening

    It seems PB has decided Truss is over before she even takes office and the policies announced

    I have no idea why she thinks JRM and Dorries should be in her cabinet other than some plot to prevent 2 by elections as Johnson sends them to the Lords

    However, I am more restrained as I haven't a clue what she will announce next week, but I would be surprised if she and those around her do not provide an extensive support package for consumers and as importantly businesses, especially small businesses

    A package well targeted and very pro business may well change the narrative and have some red faces on here

    I admit I have to be persuaded by her, but at least let her get in office and start the post Johnson age

    Her poll ratings are poor but even Starmer is only on 29% tonight

    Truth is disenchantment , worry and fear stalks the political class as they attempt to do the impossible and make the cost of living crisis disappear as if it is not real when it is a direct consequence of the war with Russia which only ends when that does

    The polling indeed suggests none of the above is wanted in number 10.
    If Labour are high 30s, low 40s, 29% thinking Starmer will be best PM suggests their vote is shallow.
    Having said that, its better than the blues right now!
    Everybody's is better than the conservatives who have taken leave of their senses, indeed the only good is Johnson leaving no 10 on Tuesday
    Theyve got a bugger of a job to do to hold it all together this winter, i fear for what might happen. I'm trying to be hopeful but also feeling rather bleakly pessimistic. I just think its too big. For anyone. Starmers intervention already looks ludicrously naive and undercooked. But it does at least exist.
    Starmer's solution was far too generous to people on higher incomes. It really needs to be Sunak's (x4) or similar.
    Starmer calls this correctly in terms of scale, I think. May not actually be enough. Also true that massive subsidy can't go on indefinitely.

    Sunak's plan is woefully inadequate, over-complicated and creates too many edge cases. If you want to taper the support the best and easiest way to do this is to cap fuel prices for everyone and claw some or all of it back through higher income tax rates. That's the way to do it, but probably not politically acceptable.
    If his propossl exceeds whatever Truss anounces he is closer on calling the scale correctly but will still be woefully short of what is required to avert disaster and only looks at the next 6 months. Its completely damning of the Tories response so far that Starmers plan has not been dismissed as an expensive sticking plaster for the amputation ward.
    The Tories are screwed if they underbid Starmer's plan, calling it "a sticking plaster". Bear in mind they have come up with nothing at all yet for the latest prices, which are already live for businesses. They appear to have no concept of the crisis the country faces.
    Are massive handouts to those on the higher rate really the best way to deal with this?
    Yes. What's your better way?
    Of course it is not
    It is wrong on every level
    Millionaire footballers and others being subsided by the tax payer is immoral
    I do hope Truss does address this inequality
    If universality is the quickest and most effective way to get help to those who need it, there is absolutely nothing immoral about it. The money can always be clawed back from higher earners in other ways.

    How
    An income tax rise. The introduction of a wealth tax. Truss can’t do either, of course.

  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 25,298
    I do wonder what would be the outcome if Corbyn had taken over 6 months ago.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 14,025
    edited September 2022
    RobD said:

    FF43 said:

    RobD said:

    FF43 said:

    RobD said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    Eabhal said:

    Good evening

    It seems PB has decided Truss is over before she even takes office and the policies announced

    I have no idea why she thinks JRM and Dorries should be in her cabinet other than some plot to prevent 2 by elections as Johnson sends them to the Lords

    However, I am more restrained as I haven't a clue what she will announce next week, but I would be surprised if she and those around her do not provide an extensive support package for consumers and as importantly businesses, especially small businesses

    A package well targeted and very pro business may well change the narrative and have some red faces on here

    I admit I have to be persuaded by her, but at least let her get in office and start the post Johnson age

    Her poll ratings are poor but even Starmer is only on 29% tonight

    Truth is disenchantment , worry and fear stalks the political class as they attempt to do the impossible and make the cost of living crisis disappear as if it is not real when it is a direct consequence of the war with Russia which only ends when that does

    The polling indeed suggests none of the above is wanted in number 10.
    If Labour are high 30s, low 40s, 29% thinking Starmer will be best PM suggests their vote is shallow.
    Having said that, its better than the blues right now!
    Everybody's is better than the conservatives who have taken leave of their senses, indeed the only good is Johnson leaving no 10 on Tuesday
    Theyve got a bugger of a job to do to hold it all together this winter, i fear for what might happen. I'm trying to be hopeful but also feeling rather bleakly pessimistic. I just think its too big. For anyone. Starmers intervention already looks ludicrously naive and undercooked. But it does at least exist.
    Starmer's solution was far too generous to people on higher incomes. It really needs to be Sunak's (x4) or similar.
    Starmer calls this correctly in terms of scale, I think. May not actually be enough. Also true that massive subsidy can't go on indefinitely.

    Sunak's plan is woefully inadequate, over-complicated and creates too many edge cases. If you want to taper the support the best and easiest way to do this is to cap fuel prices for everyone and claw some or all of it back through higher income tax rates. That's the way to do it, but probably not politically acceptable.
    If his propossl exceeds whatever Truss anounces he is closer on calling the scale correctly but will still be woefully short of what is required to avert disaster and only looks at the next 6 months. Its completely damning of the Tories response so far that Starmers plan has not been dismissed as an expensive sticking plaster for the amputation ward.
    The Tories are screwed if they underbid Starmer's plan, calling it "a sticking plaster". Bear in mind they have come up with nothing at all yet for the latest prices, which are already live for businesses. They appear to have no concept of the crisis the country faces.
    Are massive handouts to those on the higher rate really the best way to deal with this?
    Yes. What's your better way?
    One that doesn't involve paying the richest people in the country for their energy.
    The whole point of upping income tax is so we don't pay the richest people in the country for their energy, ie subsidy gets clawed back. You didn't answer my question - not that I have any right to expect you to do so, of course.

    When I say "best way", I don't mean that the best will actually happen. There will be an instinctive reaction against increasing taxes to pay for the subsidy. That's why I suspect we will end up with something that looks a lot like the Starmer plan, despite the objections to it set out by @Eabhal, apparently shared by yourself.
    There was a comparison of Starmer's and Sunak's plan posted a week or so ago, showing the later was much more targeted at the lower deciles. A freeze on the price cap is not the only way to support people, and it certainly isn't the most targeted or cost effective.
    Which I posted. The main problem is Sunak's [edit] plan, despite being tiered, is way too little to meaningfully reduce the shock. All the bad stuff will happen with it - people being tipped into poverty, mass extinction of business, economic depression etc - just a bit less. So you up the numbers to more like Starmer's and that means at least half the country gets pushed into social security to handle the means testing. And, by the way, this should all have been prepared for months ago, if the derelict shower that pretends to run this country had partially got their act together.

    So... Do it simple. Starmer's plan it will be. In some form. I think.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 25,298
    Means testing just means delay.
    Look at the £150. Half of those not paying Council Tax through DD still haven't received it.
    Tories love red tape for others.
  • FF43 said:

    RobD said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    Eabhal said:

    Good evening

    It seems PB has decided Truss is over before she even takes office and the policies announced

    I have no idea why she thinks JRM and Dorries should be in her cabinet other than some plot to prevent 2 by elections as Johnson sends them to the Lords

    However, I am more restrained as I haven't a clue what she will announce next week, but I would be surprised if she and those around her do not provide an extensive support package for consumers and as importantly businesses, especially small businesses

    A package well targeted and very pro business may well change the narrative and have some red faces on here

    I admit I have to be persuaded by her, but at least let her get in office and start the post Johnson age

    Her poll ratings are poor but even Starmer is only on 29% tonight

    Truth is disenchantment , worry and fear stalks the political class as they attempt to do the impossible and make the cost of living crisis disappear as if it is not real when it is a direct consequence of the war with Russia which only ends when that does

    The polling indeed suggests none of the above is wanted in number 10.
    If Labour are high 30s, low 40s, 29% thinking Starmer will be best PM suggests their vote is shallow.
    Having said that, its better than the blues right now!
    Everybody's is better than the conservatives who have taken leave of their senses, indeed the only good is Johnson leaving no 10 on Tuesday
    Theyve got a bugger of a job to do to hold it all together this winter, i fear for what might happen. I'm trying to be hopeful but also feeling rather bleakly pessimistic. I just think its too big. For anyone. Starmers intervention already looks ludicrously naive and undercooked. But it does at least exist.
    Starmer's solution was far too generous to people on higher incomes. It really needs to be Sunak's (x4) or similar.
    Starmer calls this correctly in terms of scale, I think. May not actually be enough. Also true that massive subsidy can't go on indefinitely.

    Sunak's plan is woefully inadequate, over-complicated and creates too many edge cases. If you want to taper the support the best and easiest way to do this is to cap fuel prices for everyone and claw some or all of it back through higher income tax rates. That's the way to do it, but probably not politically acceptable.
    If his propossl exceeds whatever Truss anounces he is closer on calling the scale correctly but will still be woefully short of what is required to avert disaster and only looks at the next 6 months. Its completely damning of the Tories response so far that Starmers plan has not been dismissed as an expensive sticking plaster for the amputation ward.
    The Tories are screwed if they underbid Starmer's plan, calling it "a sticking plaster". Bear in mind they have come up with nothing at all yet for the latest prices, which are already live for businesses. They appear to have no concept of the crisis the country faces.
    Are massive handouts to those on the higher rate really the best way to deal with this?
    Yes. What's your better way?
    Of course it is not
    It is wrong on every level
    Millionaire footballers and others being subsided by the tax payer is immoral
    I do hope Truss does address this inequality
    If universality is the quickest and most effective way to get help to those who need it, there is absolutely nothing immoral about it. The money can always be clawed back from higher earners in other ways.

    How
    An income tax rise. The introduction of a wealth tax. Truss can’t do either, of course.

    The answer is not to give this largesse to the wealthy in the first place

    Telegraph is stating that Truss is to announce immediate financial support for households and a cap on energy prices until the pressure eases off, which sounds rather like the 2 year cap suggested by the suppliers

    Anyway the Telegraph does say this will be announced in her first week so maybe best to see what it is

    We will know by next weekend
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,357
    edited September 2022
    dixiedean said:

    I do wonder what would be the outcome if Corbyn had taken over 6 months ago.

    .

    If Burnham had been elected Labour leader not Corbyn in 2015, Labour might even have already been in government for 5 years
  • Andy_JS said:

    "A Liz Truss government means the return of the radical right
    As a brutal winter beckons, the Conservative leadership front-runner and her band of free-market ideologues threaten to drag Britain further into economic catastrophe.

    By Andrew Marr"

    A very biased assessment from the face of BBC politics for two decades.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    IshmaelZ said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    pm215 said:

    All the evidence we have of Truss's views on economics points to her being so dry that, if she were a Martini, people would be flocking to drink her. If she were a desert, there would be a disaster appeal to support the desperate people living there. Getting rid of protections for workers is an electorally dumb idea, but also the kind of thing that an idealogue might do, given two years and a seventy seat majority.

    Pointing that out doesn't mean that anyone wants Truss to fail. Just that she is very likely to do so. Unless she reverse ferrets in the next 48 hours.

    Mmm, that for me is one of the big unknowns -- to what extent is Truss going to push through with stuff she believes in or has said, and to what extent is are we going to see a lot of kite-flying that gets a few headlines but then gets quietly dropped or back-burnered if it gets too much pushback?
    I suspect she's overcommited on the rhetoric. She has nailed her mast to lower taxes, implying smaller state, at a time when demands for state intervention have rarely been higher and where borrowing your way through the tax/spend contradiction is closed off due to inflation. She will lose whatever credibility she still has if she doesn't lower taxes but will be damned if she doesn't keep the spending taps open.
    And BTW, I doubt Kwarteng is the clever Chancellor that will get her off the fiscal hook she has impaled herself on.
    Eton, Trinity and Harvard, and I believe he is a mate of rcs1000. sounds formidable to me.
    Can he get away with telling Robert that Coldplay are rubbish and Python is a toy language?
    Confusing radiohead with coldplay is the greatest insult of the lot
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,357
    Scott_xP said:

    I can't entirely believe I'm saying this, but maybe it would have been better to let him bumble on for two more years and face defeat by the electorate.

    Nature's way and all that.

    No

    The mistake was to let him bumble on as long as he did.

    They should have VONCed him when they had the chance

    EDIT: If they had kicked him out immediately, I think someone other than Truss would have taken over, and they wouldn't be facing Armageddon at the next election
    It was Boris who won the Tories their big majority in 2019, if they face Armageddon at the next election it will be in large part due to removing him, their most charismatic leader since Thatcher, not failing to do so earlier
  • HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    I can't entirely believe I'm saying this, but maybe it would have been better to let him bumble on for two more years and face defeat by the electorate.

    Nature's way and all that.

    No

    The mistake was to let him bumble on as long as he did.

    They should have VONCed him when they had the chance

    EDIT: If they had kicked him out immediately, I think someone other than Truss would have taken over, and they wouldn't be facing Armageddon at the next election
    It was Boris who won the Tories their big majority in 2019, if they face Armageddon at the next election it will be in large part due to removing him, their most charismatic leader since Thatcher, not failing to do so earlier
    You are a lost cause, blind to how toxic he is with the public, and living in a fantasy land of make-believe
  • Scott_xP said:

    CABINET 7
    Iain Duncan Smith is also making clear that he wants a department, but Team Truss don't seem to want that and regard Leader of the House as his natural role. Truss being urged to put her foot down 7/
    https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1566168707860135938

    I'm looking forward to when we get an actual government with actual policies rather than the endless stream of rumours.
    Why does IDS have any leverage in the matter?

    Give him something and if he doesn't like he can feck off back to the back benches.

  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    I can't entirely believe I'm saying this, but maybe it would have been better to let him bumble on for two more years and face defeat by the electorate.

    Nature's way and all that.

    No

    The mistake was to let him bumble on as long as he did.

    They should have VONCed him when they had the chance

    EDIT: If they had kicked him out immediately, I think someone other than Truss would have taken over, and they wouldn't be facing Armageddon at the next election
    It was Boris who won the Tories their big majority in 2019, if they face Armageddon at the next election it will be in large part due to removing him, their most charismatic leader since Thatcher, not failing to do so earlier
    Prat.
  • HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    I can't entirely believe I'm saying this, but maybe it would have been better to let him bumble on for two more years and face defeat by the electorate.

    Nature's way and all that.

    No

    The mistake was to let him bumble on as long as he did.

    They should have VONCed him when they had the chance

    EDIT: If they had kicked him out immediately, I think someone other than Truss would have taken over, and they wouldn't be facing Armageddon at the next election
    It was Boris who won the Tories their big majority in 2019, if they face Armageddon at the next election it will be in large part due to removing him, their most charismatic leader since Thatcher, not failing to do so earlier
    The ability to form an electoral coalition is great, as is being a charismatic campaigner. However, without actually knowing where you want to take the country, and having a decent plan to get there, you run out of road. Boris had run out of road.
  • Scott_xP said:

    CABINET 7
    Iain Duncan Smith is also making clear that he wants a department, but Team Truss don't seem to want that and regard Leader of the House as his natural role. Truss being urged to put her foot down 7/
    https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1566168707860135938

    I'm looking forward to when we get an actual government with actual policies rather than the endless stream of rumours.
    Why does IDS have any leverage in the matter?

    Give him something and if he doesn't like he can feck off back to the back benches.

    What if he threatens to turn up the volume again?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    FF43 said:

    RobD said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    Eabhal said:

    Good evening

    It seems PB has decided Truss is over before she even takes office and the policies announced

    I have no idea why she thinks JRM and Dorries should be in her cabinet other than some plot to prevent 2 by elections as Johnson sends them to the Lords

    However, I am more restrained as I haven't a clue what she will announce next week, but I would be surprised if she and those around her do not provide an extensive support package for consumers and as importantly businesses, especially small businesses

    A package well targeted and very pro business may well change the narrative and have some red faces on here

    I admit I have to be persuaded by her, but at least let her get in office and start the post Johnson age

    Her poll ratings are poor but even Starmer is only on 29% tonight

    Truth is disenchantment , worry and fear stalks the political class as they attempt to do the impossible and make the cost of living crisis disappear as if it is not real when it is a direct consequence of the war with Russia which only ends when that does

    The polling indeed suggests none of the above is wanted in number 10.
    If Labour are high 30s, low 40s, 29% thinking Starmer will be best PM suggests their vote is shallow.
    Having said that, its better than the blues right now!
    Everybody's is better than the conservatives who have taken leave of their senses, indeed the only good is Johnson leaving no 10 on Tuesday
    Theyve got a bugger of a job to do to hold it all together this winter, i fear for what might happen. I'm trying to be hopeful but also feeling rather bleakly pessimistic. I just think its too big. For anyone. Starmers intervention already looks ludicrously naive and undercooked. But it does at least exist.
    Starmer's solution was far too generous to people on higher incomes. It really needs to be Sunak's (x4) or similar.
    Starmer calls this correctly in terms of scale, I think. May not actually be enough. Also true that massive subsidy can't go on indefinitely.

    Sunak's plan is woefully inadequate, over-complicated and creates too many edge cases. If you want to taper the support the best and easiest way to do this is to cap fuel prices for everyone and claw some or all of it back through higher income tax rates. That's the way to do it, but probably not politically acceptable.
    If his propossl exceeds whatever Truss anounces he is closer on calling the scale correctly but will still be woefully short of what is required to avert disaster and only looks at the next 6 months. Its completely damning of the Tories response so far that Starmers plan has not been dismissed as an expensive sticking plaster for the amputation ward.
    The Tories are screwed if they underbid Starmer's plan, calling it "a sticking plaster". Bear in mind they have come up with nothing at all yet for the latest prices, which are already live for businesses. They appear to have no concept of the crisis the country faces.
    Are massive handouts to those on the higher rate really the best way to deal with this?
    Yes. What's your better way?
    Of course it is not

    It is wrong on every level

    Millionaire footballers and others being subsided by the tax payer is immoral

    I do hope Truss does address this inequality
    The road and motorway network and the NHS are provided free by the taxpayer to millionaires...
  • FF43 said:

    RobD said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    Eabhal said:

    Good evening

    It seems PB has decided Truss is over before she even takes office and the policies announced

    I have no idea why she thinks JRM and Dorries should be in her cabinet other than some plot to prevent 2 by elections as Johnson sends them to the Lords

    However, I am more restrained as I haven't a clue what she will announce next week, but I would be surprised if she and those around her do not provide an extensive support package for consumers and as importantly businesses, especially small businesses

    A package well targeted and very pro business may well change the narrative and have some red faces on here

    I admit I have to be persuaded by her, but at least let her get in office and start the post Johnson age

    Her poll ratings are poor but even Starmer is only on 29% tonight

    Truth is disenchantment , worry and fear stalks the political class as they attempt to do the impossible and make the cost of living crisis disappear as if it is not real when it is a direct consequence of the war with Russia which only ends when that does

    The polling indeed suggests none of the above is wanted in number 10.
    If Labour are high 30s, low 40s, 29% thinking Starmer will be best PM suggests their vote is shallow.
    Having said that, its better than the blues right now!
    Everybody's is better than the conservatives who have taken leave of their senses, indeed the only good is Johnson leaving no 10 on Tuesday
    Theyve got a bugger of a job to do to hold it all together this winter, i fear for what might happen. I'm trying to be hopeful but also feeling rather bleakly pessimistic. I just think its too big. For anyone. Starmers intervention already looks ludicrously naive and undercooked. But it does at least exist.
    Starmer's solution was far too generous to people on higher incomes. It really needs to be Sunak's (x4) or similar.
    Starmer calls this correctly in terms of scale, I think. May not actually be enough. Also true that massive subsidy can't go on indefinitely.

    Sunak's plan is woefully inadequate, over-complicated and creates too many edge cases. If you want to taper the support the best and easiest way to do this is to cap fuel prices for everyone and claw some or all of it back through higher income tax rates. That's the way to do it, but probably not politically acceptable.
    If his propossl exceeds whatever Truss anounces he is closer on calling the scale correctly but will still be woefully short of what is required to avert disaster and only looks at the next 6 months. Its completely damning of the Tories response so far that Starmers plan has not been dismissed as an expensive sticking plaster for the amputation ward.
    The Tories are screwed if they underbid Starmer's plan, calling it "a sticking plaster". Bear in mind they have come up with nothing at all yet for the latest prices, which are already live for businesses. They appear to have no concept of the crisis the country faces.
    Are massive handouts to those on the higher rate really the best way to deal with this?
    Yes. What's your better way?
    Of course it is not
    It is wrong on every level
    Millionaire footballers and others being subsided by the tax payer is immoral
    I do hope Truss does address this inequality
    If universality is the quickest and most effective way to get help to those who need it, there is absolutely nothing immoral about it. The money can always be clawed back from higher earners in other ways.

    How
    An income tax rise. The introduction of a wealth tax. Truss can’t do either, of course.

    The answer is not to give this largesse to the wealthy in the first place

    Telegraph is stating that Truss is to announce immediate financial support for households and a cap on energy prices until the pressure eases off, which sounds rather like the 2 year cap suggested by the suppliers

    Anyway the Telegraph does say this will be announced in her first week so maybe best to see what it is

    We will know by next weekend
    The two year cap the energy companies want is a delayed, long-term price rise for consumers, underpinned by short-term government support for the energy companies. That contrasts with the windfall tax on the energy companies that Labour is advocating.

    There is absolutely no doubt that something huge will be announced. All that remains is to discover the detail.

  • Lol Liz Truss.

    20 point lead
  • ...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 82,567

    ...

    Scott_xP said:

    TRUSS CABINET REVEALED
    Based on multiple converstions with aides and ministers, this is my current understanding of the Truss cabinet. Caveat: the white board is not finalised 1/ https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1566166456164810752/photo/1

    I still can’t understand the political optics of Rees-Mogg at business. That in itself is political suicide
    Rees Mogg is a combative Minister. If he's being appointed, it indicates that BEIS is being lined up for a (well-deserved imo) kick up the bum.
    Being a combative minister, and actually carrying departments / people with you toward change, are two different things.

    There’s no chance in hell Mogg can actually deliver in that role
    Sometimes things need shaking up. But if your entire schtick seems to be based on shaking things up and upsetting people, it does not inspire confidence, since it suggests a rigid, unthinking approach.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,423
    "Sweden announces emergency support for energy producers
    EU also considering action as rising collateral demands prompt policymakers to warn of ‘financial stability threat’
    Magdalena Andersson said Russia’s decision to close the Nordstream 1 pipeline could lead to a “war winter”"

    [available via google search]

    https://www.ft.com/content/4ea1dab0-d1a8-4324-97e2-22caed5ed55c
  • FF43 said:

    RobD said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    Eabhal said:

    Good evening

    It seems PB has decided Truss is over before she even takes office and the policies announced

    I have no idea why she thinks JRM and Dorries should be in her cabinet other than some plot to prevent 2 by elections as Johnson sends them to the Lords

    However, I am more restrained as I haven't a clue what she will announce next week, but I would be surprised if she and those around her do not provide an extensive support package for consumers and as importantly businesses, especially small businesses

    A package well targeted and very pro business may well change the narrative and have some red faces on here

    I admit I have to be persuaded by her, but at least let her get in office and start the post Johnson age

    Her poll ratings are poor but even Starmer is only on 29% tonight

    Truth is disenchantment , worry and fear stalks the political class as they attempt to do the impossible and make the cost of living crisis disappear as if it is not real when it is a direct consequence of the war with Russia which only ends when that does

    The polling indeed suggests none of the above is wanted in number 10.
    If Labour are high 30s, low 40s, 29% thinking Starmer will be best PM suggests their vote is shallow.
    Having said that, its better than the blues right now!
    Everybody's is better than the conservatives who have taken leave of their senses, indeed the only good is Johnson leaving no 10 on Tuesday
    Theyve got a bugger of a job to do to hold it all together this winter, i fear for what might happen. I'm trying to be hopeful but also feeling rather bleakly pessimistic. I just think its too big. For anyone. Starmers intervention already looks ludicrously naive and undercooked. But it does at least exist.
    Starmer's solution was far too generous to people on higher incomes. It really needs to be Sunak's (x4) or similar.
    Starmer calls this correctly in terms of scale, I think. May not actually be enough. Also true that massive subsidy can't go on indefinitely.

    Sunak's plan is woefully inadequate, over-complicated and creates too many edge cases. If you want to taper the support the best and easiest way to do this is to cap fuel prices for everyone and claw some or all of it back through higher income tax rates. That's the way to do it, but probably not politically acceptable.
    If his propossl exceeds whatever Truss anounces he is closer on calling the scale correctly but will still be woefully short of what is required to avert disaster and only looks at the next 6 months. Its completely damning of the Tories response so far that Starmers plan has not been dismissed as an expensive sticking plaster for the amputation ward.
    The Tories are screwed if they underbid Starmer's plan, calling it "a sticking plaster". Bear in mind they have come up with nothing at all yet for the latest prices, which are already live for businesses. They appear to have no concept of the crisis the country faces.
    Are massive handouts to those on the higher rate really the best way to deal with this?
    Yes. What's your better way?
    Of course it is not
    It is wrong on every level
    Millionaire footballers and others being subsided by the tax payer is immoral
    I do hope Truss does address this inequality
    If universality is the quickest and most effective way to get help to those who need it, there is absolutely nothing immoral about it. The money can always be clawed back from higher earners in other ways.

    How
    An income tax rise. The introduction of a wealth tax. Truss can’t do either, of course.

    The answer is not to give this largesse to the wealthy in the first place

    Telegraph is stating that Truss is to announce immediate financial support for households and a cap on energy prices until the pressure eases off, which sounds rather like the 2 year cap suggested by the suppliers

    Anyway the Telegraph does say this will be announced in her first week so maybe best to see what it is

    We will know by next weekend
    The two year cap the energy companies want is a delayed, long-term price rise for consumers, underpinned by short-term government support for the energy companies. That contrasts with the windfall tax on the energy companies that Labour is advocating.

    There is absolutely no doubt that something huge will be announced. All that remains is to discover the detail.

    Labour's windfall tax is only about £5 billion more than Sunak and only takes us to April and gives nothing to businesses

    If a 2 year cap is announced it will be a big moment in politics but I am not saying it will be but am urging to wait for another few days which will end all the speculation
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 82,567

    Scott_xP said:

    CABINET 7
    Iain Duncan Smith is also making clear that he wants a department, but Team Truss don't seem to want that and regard Leader of the House as his natural role. Truss being urged to put her foot down 7/
    https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1566168707860135938

    I'm looking forward to when we get an actual government with actual policies rather than the endless stream of rumours.
    Why does IDS have any leverage in the matter?

    Give him something and if he doesn't like he can feck off back to the back benches.

    Truss is about to win the members vote by a huge margin, and got plenty of MP support - the idea she should feel pressure to appoint fossils like IDS is absurd. What's he going to do if she doesn't? What will that wing of the party do? She has plenty of others from that side to appoint, ones who are fresher and more competent.
  • HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    I can't entirely believe I'm saying this, but maybe it would have been better to let him bumble on for two more years and face defeat by the electorate.

    Nature's way and all that.

    No

    The mistake was to let him bumble on as long as he did.

    They should have VONCed him when they had the chance

    EDIT: If they had kicked him out immediately, I think someone other than Truss would have taken over, and they wouldn't be facing Armageddon at the next election
    It was Boris who won the Tories their big majority in 2019, if they face Armageddon at the next election it will be in large part due to removing him, their most charismatic leader since Thatcher, not failing to do so earlier
    You are a lost cause, blind to how toxic he is with the public, and living in a fantasy land of make-believe
    Yes, but will he still be toxic after a year of Truss?

    I suspect that memories of partygate and lies will soon fade
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 82,567
    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    I can't entirely believe I'm saying this, but maybe it would have been better to let him bumble on for two more years and face defeat by the electorate.

    Nature's way and all that.

    No

    The mistake was to let him bumble on as long as he did.

    They should have VONCed him when they had the chance

    EDIT: If they had kicked him out immediately, I think someone other than Truss would have taken over, and they wouldn't be facing Armageddon at the next election
    It was Boris who won the Tories their big majority in 2019, if they face Armageddon at the next election it will be in large part due to removing him, their most charismatic leader since Thatcher, not failing to do so earlier
    Unknowable either way since you well know past performance is no guarantee of future performance, but good to see you are dropping the pretence you want the party to do well, instead preparing excuses to defend Boris from any culpability in their troubles in advance, and not even contemplating any other options. Shows the priorities of 'loyalists'.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 55,355
    edited September 2022
    IshmaelZ said:

    FF43 said:

    RobD said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    Eabhal said:

    Good evening

    It seems PB has decided Truss is over before she even takes office and the policies announced

    I have no idea why she thinks JRM and Dorries should be in her cabinet other than some plot to prevent 2 by elections as Johnson sends them to the Lords

    However, I am more restrained as I haven't a clue what she will announce next week, but I would be surprised if she and those around her do not provide an extensive support package for consumers and as importantly businesses, especially small businesses

    A package well targeted and very pro business may well change the narrative and have some red faces on here

    I admit I have to be persuaded by her, but at least let her get in office and start the post Johnson age

    Her poll ratings are poor but even Starmer is only on 29% tonight

    Truth is disenchantment , worry and fear stalks the political class as they attempt to do the impossible and make the cost of living crisis disappear as if it is not real when it is a direct consequence of the war with Russia which only ends when that does

    The polling indeed suggests none of the above is wanted in number 10.
    If Labour are high 30s, low 40s, 29% thinking Starmer will be best PM suggests their vote is shallow.
    Having said that, its better than the blues right now!
    Everybody's is better than the conservatives who have taken leave of their senses, indeed the only good is Johnson leaving no 10 on Tuesday
    Theyve got a bugger of a job to do to hold it all together this winter, i fear for what might happen. I'm trying to be hopeful but also feeling rather bleakly pessimistic. I just think its too big. For anyone. Starmers intervention already looks ludicrously naive and undercooked. But it does at least exist.
    Starmer's solution was far too generous to people on higher incomes. It really needs to be Sunak's (x4) or similar.
    Starmer calls this correctly in terms of scale, I think. May not actually be enough. Also true that massive subsidy can't go on indefinitely.

    Sunak's plan is woefully inadequate, over-complicated and creates too many edge cases. If you want to taper the support the best and easiest way to do this is to cap fuel prices for everyone and claw some or all of it back through higher income tax rates. That's the way to do it, but probably not politically acceptable.
    If his propossl exceeds whatever Truss anounces he is closer on calling the scale correctly but will still be woefully short of what is required to avert disaster and only looks at the next 6 months. Its completely damning of the Tories response so far that Starmers plan has not been dismissed as an expensive sticking plaster for the amputation ward.
    The Tories are screwed if they underbid Starmer's plan, calling it "a sticking plaster". Bear in mind they have come up with nothing at all yet for the latest prices, which are already live for businesses. They appear to have no concept of the crisis the country faces.
    Are massive handouts to those on the higher rate really the best way to deal with this?
    Yes. What's your better way?
    Of course it is not

    It is wrong on every level

    Millionaire footballers and others being subsided by the tax payer is immoral

    I do hope Truss does address this inequality
    The road and motorway network and the NHS are provided free by the taxpayer to millionaires...
    I really not sure what the point is and nor do I expect the long suffering public will when they are told millionaire footballers, celebrities and bosses will have their energy bills paid by the taxpayers
  • FF43 said:

    RobD said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    Eabhal said:

    Good evening

    It seems PB has decided Truss is over before she even takes office and the policies announced

    I have no idea why she thinks JRM and Dorries should be in her cabinet other than some plot to prevent 2 by elections as Johnson sends them to the Lords

    However, I am more restrained as I haven't a clue what she will announce next week, but I would be surprised if she and those around her do not provide an extensive support package for consumers and as importantly businesses, especially small businesses

    A package well targeted and very pro business may well change the narrative and have some red faces on here

    I admit I have to be persuaded by her, but at least let her get in office and start the post Johnson age

    Her poll ratings are poor but even Starmer is only on 29% tonight

    Truth is disenchantment , worry and fear stalks the political class as they attempt to do the impossible and make the cost of living crisis disappear as if it is not real when it is a direct consequence of the war with Russia which only ends when that does

    The polling indeed suggests none of the above is wanted in number 10.
    If Labour are high 30s, low 40s, 29% thinking Starmer will be best PM suggests their vote is shallow.
    Having said that, its better than the blues right now!
    Everybody's is better than the conservatives who have taken leave of their senses, indeed the only good is Johnson leaving no 10 on Tuesday
    Theyve got a bugger of a job to do to hold it all together this winter, i fear for what might happen. I'm trying to be hopeful but also feeling rather bleakly pessimistic. I just think its too big. For anyone. Starmers intervention already looks ludicrously naive and undercooked. But it does at least exist.
    Starmer's solution was far too generous to people on higher incomes. It really needs to be Sunak's (x4) or similar.
    Starmer calls this correctly in terms of scale, I think. May not actually be enough. Also true that massive subsidy can't go on indefinitely.

    Sunak's plan is woefully inadequate, over-complicated and creates too many edge cases. If you want to taper the support the best and easiest way to do this is to cap fuel prices for everyone and claw some or all of it back through higher income tax rates. That's the way to do it, but probably not politically acceptable.
    If his propossl exceeds whatever Truss anounces he is closer on calling the scale correctly but will still be woefully short of what is required to avert disaster and only looks at the next 6 months. Its completely damning of the Tories response so far that Starmers plan has not been dismissed as an expensive sticking plaster for the amputation ward.
    The Tories are screwed if they underbid Starmer's plan, calling it "a sticking plaster". Bear in mind they have come up with nothing at all yet for the latest prices, which are already live for businesses. They appear to have no concept of the crisis the country faces.
    Are massive handouts to those on the higher rate really the best way to deal with this?
    Yes. What's your better way?
    Of course it is not
    It is wrong on every level
    Millionaire footballers and others being subsided by the tax payer is immoral
    I do hope Truss does address this inequality
    If universality is the quickest and most effective way to get help to those who need it, there is absolutely nothing immoral about it. The money can always be clawed back from higher earners in other ways.

    How
    An income tax rise. The introduction of a wealth tax. Truss can’t do either, of course.

    The answer is not to give this largesse to the wealthy in the first place

    Telegraph is stating that Truss is to announce immediate financial support for households and a cap on energy prices until the pressure eases off, which sounds rather like the 2 year cap suggested by the suppliers
    Anyway the Telegraph does say this will be announced in her first week so maybe best to see what it is

    We will know by next weekend
    The two year cap the energy companies want is a delayed, long-term price rise for consumers, underpinned by short-term government support for the energy companies. That contrasts with the windfall tax on the energy companies that Labour is advocating.
    There is absolutely no doubt that something
    huge will be announced. All that remains is to discover the detail.
    Labour's windfall tax is only about £5 billion more than Sunak and only takes us to April and gives nothing to businesses

    If a 2 year cap is announced it will be a big moment in politics but I am not saying it will be but am urging to wait for another few days which will end all the speculation
    It’s a two year subsidy to energy companies underwritten by the taxpayer in return for temporary relief on energy bills. But it will be a big moment, I agree.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 82,567
    edited September 2022
    Scott_xP said:

    According to the legendary @ShippersUnbound Lord Frosty Frost was holding out to be Foreign Sec having declared loftily he was unwilling to serve in a Sunak cabinet. I have followed closely courtiers that hover around govns.. there has been no one as delusional as @DavidGHFrost
    https://twitter.com/steverichards14/status/1566173873560748032

    He doesn't lack for confidence, I give him that. But even if someone thinks he is a grand choice, why would they alienate all those MPs who want jobs by giving it to a Lord? I know he wants to be an MP instead now, but still.
  • HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    I can't entirely believe I'm saying this, but maybe it would have been better to let him bumble on for two more years and face defeat by the electorate.

    Nature's way and all that.

    No

    The mistake was to let him bumble on as long as he did.

    They should have VONCed him when they had the chance

    EDIT: If they had kicked him out immediately, I think someone other than Truss would have taken over, and they wouldn't be facing Armageddon at the next election
    It was Boris who won the Tories their big majority in 2019, if they face Armageddon at the next election it will be in large part due to removing him, their most charismatic leader since Thatcher, not failing to do so earlier
    You are a lost cause, blind to how toxic he is with the public, and living in a fantasy land of make-believe
    Yes, but will he still be toxic after a year of Truss?

    I suspect that memories of partygate and lies will soon fade
    He will with the public and they elect governments
  • kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    I can't entirely believe I'm saying this, but maybe it would have been better to let him bumble on for two more years and face defeat by the electorate.

    Nature's way and all that.

    No

    The mistake was to let him bumble on as long as he did.

    They should have VONCed him when they had the chance

    EDIT: If they had kicked him out immediately, I think someone other than Truss would have taken over, and they wouldn't be facing Armageddon at the next election
    It was Boris who won the Tories their big majority in 2019, if they face Armageddon at the next election it will be in large part due to removing him, their most charismatic leader since Thatcher, not failing to do so earlier
    Unknowable either way since you well know past performance is no guarantee of future performance, but good to see you are dropping the pretence you want the party to do well, instead preparing excuses to defend Boris from any culpability in their troubles in advance, and not even contemplating any other options. Shows the priorities of 'loyalists'.
    I couldn't have put it better
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,190

    FF43 said:

    RobD said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    Eabhal said:

    Good evening

    It seems PB has decided Truss is over before she even takes office and the policies announced

    I have no idea why she thinks JRM and Dorries should be in her cabinet other than some plot to prevent 2 by elections as Johnson sends them to the Lords

    However, I am more restrained as I haven't a clue what she will announce next week, but I would be surprised if she and those around her do not provide an extensive support package for consumers and as importantly businesses, especially small businesses

    A package well targeted and very pro business may well change the narrative and have some red faces on here

    I admit I have to be persuaded by her, but at least let her get in office and start the post Johnson age

    Her poll ratings are poor but even Starmer is only on 29% tonight

    Truth is disenchantment , worry and fear stalks the political class as they attempt to do the impossible and make the cost of living crisis disappear as if it is not real when it is a direct consequence of the war with Russia which only ends when that does

    The polling indeed suggests none of the above is wanted in number 10.
    If Labour are high 30s, low 40s, 29% thinking Starmer will be best PM suggests their vote is shallow.
    Having said that, its better than the blues right now!
    Everybody's is better than the conservatives who have taken leave of their senses, indeed the only good is Johnson leaving no 10 on Tuesday
    Theyve got a bugger of a job to do to hold it all together this winter, i fear for what might happen. I'm trying to be hopeful but also feeling rather bleakly pessimistic. I just think its too big. For anyone. Starmers intervention already looks ludicrously naive and undercooked. But it does at least exist.
    Starmer's solution was far too generous to people on higher incomes. It really needs to be Sunak's (x4) or similar.
    Starmer calls this correctly in terms of scale, I think. May not actually be enough. Also true that massive subsidy can't go on indefinitely.

    Sunak's plan is woefully inadequate, over-complicated and creates too many edge cases. If you want to taper the support the best and easiest way to do this is to cap fuel prices for everyone and claw some or all of it back through higher income tax rates. That's the way to do it, but probably not politically acceptable.
    If his propossl exceeds whatever Truss anounces he is closer on calling the scale correctly but will still be woefully short of what is required to avert disaster and only looks at the next 6 months. Its completely damning of the Tories response so far that Starmers plan has not been dismissed as an expensive sticking plaster for the amputation ward.
    The Tories are screwed if they underbid Starmer's plan, calling it "a sticking plaster". Bear in mind they have come up with nothing at all yet for the latest prices, which are already live for businesses. They appear to have no concept of the crisis the country faces.
    Are massive handouts to those on the higher rate really the best way to deal with this?
    Yes. What's your better way?
    Of course it is not
    It is wrong on every level
    Millionaire footballers and others being subsided by the tax payer is immoral
    I do hope Truss does address this inequality
    If universality is the quickest and most effective way to get help to those who need it, there is absolutely nothing immoral about it. The money can always be clawed back from higher earners in other ways.

    How
    An income tax rise. The introduction of a wealth tax. Truss can’t do either, of course.

    The answer is not to give this largesse to the wealthy in the first place

    Telegraph is stating that Truss is to announce immediate financial support for households and a cap on energy prices until the pressure eases off, which sounds rather like the 2 year cap suggested by the suppliers

    Anyway the Telegraph does say this will be announced in her first week so maybe best to see what it is

    We will know by next weekend
    The two year cap the energy companies want is a delayed, long-term price rise for consumers, underpinned by short-term government support for the energy companies. That contrasts with the windfall tax on the energy companies that Labour is advocating.

    There is absolutely no doubt that something huge will be announced. All that remains is to discover the detail.

    Labour's windfall tax is only about £5 billion more than Sunak and only takes us to April and gives nothing to businesses

    If a 2 year cap is announced it will be a big moment in politics but I am not saying it will be but am urging to wait for another few days which will end all the speculation
    I'm not sure how you can complain about Starmer only having a plan to get to April and simultaneously defend Truss for not having announced her plans at all.

    And even if/when Truss announces her energy support plans do you really think she's going to be announcing beyond the immediate short-term any more than Starmer is?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,357

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    I can't entirely believe I'm saying this, but maybe it would have been better to let him bumble on for two more years and face defeat by the electorate.

    Nature's way and all that.

    No

    The mistake was to let him bumble on as long as he did.

    They should have VONCed him when they had the chance

    EDIT: If they had kicked him out immediately, I think someone other than Truss would have taken over, and they wouldn't be facing Armageddon at the next election
    It was Boris who won the Tories their big majority in 2019, if they face Armageddon at the next election it will be in large part due to removing him, their most charismatic leader since Thatcher, not failing to do so earlier
    You are a lost cause, blind to how toxic he is with the public, and living in a fantasy land of make-believe
    Well we know Boris never proposed scrapping the 48 hour maximum week or removing the guarantee of paid holiday as Truss is about to do. Boris knew how to win the redwall and working class blue collar voters.

    I promise you redwall working class voters care more about that than they do about parties, while Boris did deliver Brexit as they voted for and the vaccines.

    Truss needs to deliver significant economic growth and slashed bills with these new measures or her chances of winning the next election will be over almost as soon as her premiership has begun
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