Now the big story will be what he does next – politicalbetting.com

Foxy said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

Johnson likely stays in the Commons until the next election at least. If Truss has a sustained poll bounce then he will become less relevant. However if Starmer takes a clear poll lead he will remain the Prince across the water

Swapping the ousted person back in is unlikely to help. Look at Kevin Rudd. And given he was ousted over his personal conduct a lot of MPs are unlikely to want him back ever, even if Truss looks like losing.

Boris and his fans need to stop desperately hoping for the Tories to fail, and think about how they can help the party (which does not appear to be his or their focus). Perhaps he could spend his time touring the Red Wall for Liz and try to regain some of the old magic up there?

If he sits and pouts then either he doesn't care about the Tories winning if he does not get to lead them, or he actively wants them to fail as punishment.

The role that Johnson is best suited to is Party* Chair, giving boosters talks and fundraising on the rubber chicken circuit. A bit like hard work for him though, so he may prefer more renumerative after dinner speaking.

* party in the political sense rather than wine and cheese!

The trouble is being liked wasn't enough for him. He wanted power too.

HYUFD said:

Foxy said:

kyf_100 said:

Stuartinromford said:

BigRich said:

JosiasJessop said:

This is a great idea (and great PR):

"Our colleagues get an extra day off when their kids have their first day at school, so you may notice a different colleague in your local Timpson shop next week, helping cover for this important day in a families life."

https://twitter.com/JamesTCobbler/status/1565977459664850945

Timpson's, is a great company for many reasons,

Amongst other things it devolves and lot of power/decition making alterity to the lowest level possible.
Is consistently ranked as the best or near best of all UK large company's. for looking after there employees.
Actively recruits ex-convicts to give them a second chance in life.

It's also the largest UK company still owned by the founding family, and one of the last vestiges of what I consider proper capitalism, where entrappers put there name on the company, and their reputation and the companies reputation become one and the same.

Isn't family ownership put forward as a reason why German capitalism works?

The reputation thing is interesting. None of us really know who owns/runs anything in the UK, so what's the incentive for a manager to be a good steward?

Family ownership of companies is a terrible thing! Have we not seen Succession?!

I can think of a couple of examples of companies where the offspring were not up to the job, leading to serious decline.

Meritocracy over monarchy when it comes to business...

Clogs to clogs over 3 generations is often true, but the Timpsons seem to be an exception.

For smaller businesses family ownership often works down the generations as they are invested in it and the product.

For big business though you need an
outside CEO and board to manage it given its scale, hence the Cohen family long since lost control of Tesco for example

The issue in small family businesses is often the dynamics between the generations. If Generation A gets on well with generation B then that's okay. If they see things differently then for the sake of the employees there should be a significant change.

Foxy said:

Theuniondivvie said:

kle4 said:

BigRich said:

JosiasJessop said:

This is a great idea (and great PR):

"Our colleagues get an extra day off when their kids have their first day at school, so you may notice a different colleague in your local Timpson shop next week, helping cover for this important day in a families life."

https://twitter.com/JamesTCobbler/status/1565977459664850945

Timpson's, is a great company for many reasons,

Amongst other things it devolves and lot of power/decition making alterity to the lowest level possible.
Is consistently ranked as the best or near best of all UK large company's. for looking after there employees.
Actively recruits ex-convicts to give them a second chance in life.

It's also the largest UK company still owned by the founding family, and one of the last vestiges of what I consider proper capitalism, where entrappers put there name on the company, and their reputation and the companies reputation become one and the same.

I note they tend to have in their stores little books on fostering produced by the chairman's wife. Strong family impact on the company it seems.

I do like the company history on wikipedia - seems like a black sheep of the family ousted the current chair's dad and sold it off, until the true heir reacquired it.

In the early-1960s, family member and graduate of the University of Nottingham John Timpson returned from a post-graduate management training scheme to join the family-owned business, becoming director responsible for buying in 1970.[3] In 1973, after John's father Anthony was ousted as chairman by his uncle Geoffrey, the company was acquired for £28,600,000 by United Drapery Stores.[2] John stayed with the firm, became managing director of leather and fur retailers Swears & Wells, then in 1975; appointed managing director of the former family business, William Timpson Ltd.[3]

In 1983, John led a £42,000,000 management buyout of William Timpson from then-owners Hanson Trust plc.

I agree Timpson and his family seem like good eggs, though he was on Broadcasting House last Sunday and came away with some pretty disappointing back to the dawn of Thatcherism Trussian stuff about less government and freeing the economy to do its thing. Nobody's perfect I guess.

It is the Charles Dickens approach to social progression. The problem is not seen as the system so much as the need for wealthy benefactors to lift up the poor.

Is it not possible that there is some merit in both approaches?

BigRich said:

JosiasJessop said:

This is a great idea (and great PR):

"Our colleagues get an extra day off when their kids have their first day at school, so you may notice a different colleague in your local Timpson shop next week, helping cover for this important day in a families life."

https://twitter.com/JamesTCobbler/status/1565977459664850945

Timpson's, is a great company for many reasons,

Amongst other things it devolves and lot of power/decition making alterity to the lowest level possible.
Is consistently ranked as the best or near best of all UK large company's. for looking after there employees.
Actively recruits ex-convicts to give them a second chance in life.

It's also the largest UK company still owned by the founding family, and one of the last vestiges of what I consider proper capitalism, where entrappers put there name on the company, and their reputation and the companies reputation become one and the same.

"It's also the largest UK company still owned by the founding family"

I'd have thought JCB (still owned by the Bamfords as far as I am aware) would be much larger?

kle4 said:

MoonRabbit said:

Stuartinromford said:

MoonRabbit said:

Razedabode said:

I’m still absolutely horrified at the thought of Rees-Mogg as BEIS. Will be a divisive period of office

It's astounding
Time is fleeting
Madness takes its toll
But listen closely
Not for very much longer
I've got to keep control

As both BJO and HY praised Boris for a jump to the left (couldn’t see it myself) here comes a clear step to the right…

From Monday - Thatcherism.

Presumably rather fewer pelvic thrusts.

Though more than enough insanity to go round.

(And don't diss Thatcherism. For most of her Premiership, Maggie was a model of moderation and pragmatism, certainly compared with what seems to be incoming.)

Absolutely! Lady Thatcher would put taxes up in this situation like she did when she came into power - these tribute acts havn’t a clue how to do Thatcherism properly, with the pragmatism built in!

Most 'isms' seem to be based on isolated and out of context quotes of leaders people liked, rather than any analysis of what worked then and why, and how to adapt to the modern context.

And part of the problem the incoming government have is that they weren't really around during Thatcherism. Thatcher left office in 1990, when Liz was struggling to get GCSEs at her terrible comprehensive school or something.

I wonder if there's an echo of the way that World War II affected Boomer attitudes, and frankly sent them a bit loopy. By definition, Boomers didn't experience the War themselves- the most that can be said is that some might have concrete memories of rationing. But they will have heard all the heroic stories (probably again and again, if my experience of growing up in the 1970s was anything to go by). And those stories (incomplete and edited, as all stories are) became their foundational reference point.

We're now getting a generation of politicians who grew up with Storybook Maggie; Winter of discontent, 365 economists, Falklands, Scargill, No No No, treachery with a smile on its face, The End. And trying to build a politics on that is as unrealistic as trying to build a model of Britain's place in the world on "We will never surrender".

wth

Some bloke called Arthur is in the Liverpool squad. Amazingly he's not an Englishman but a Brazilian.

Stuartinromford said:

kle4 said:

MoonRabbit said:

Stuartinromford said:

MoonRabbit said:

Razedabode said:

I’m still absolutely horrified at the thought of Rees-Mogg as BEIS. Will be a divisive period of office

It's astounding
Time is fleeting
Madness takes its toll
But listen closely
Not for very much longer
I've got to keep control

As both BJO and HY praised Boris for a jump to the left (couldn’t see it myself) here comes a clear step to the right…

From Monday - Thatcherism.

Presumably rather fewer pelvic thrusts.

Though more than enough insanity to go round.

(And don't diss Thatcherism. For most of her Premiership, Maggie was a model of moderation and pragmatism, certainly compared with what seems to be incoming.)

Absolutely! Lady Thatcher would put taxes up in this situation like she did when she came into power - these tribute acts havn’t a clue how to do Thatcherism properly, with the pragmatism built in!

Most 'isms' seem to be based on isolated and out of context quotes of leaders people liked, rather than any analysis of what worked then and why, and how to adapt to the modern context.

And part of the problem the incoming government have is that they weren't really around during Thatcherism. Thatcher left office in 1990, when Liz was struggling to get GCSEs at her terrible comprehensive school or something.

I wonder if there's an echo of the way that World War II affected Boomer attitudes, and frankly sent them a bit loopy. By definition, Boomers didn't experience the War themselves- the most that can be said is that some might have concrete memories of rationing. But they will have heard all the heroic stories (probably again and again, if my experience of growing up in the 1970s was anything to go by). And those stories (incomplete and edited, as all stories are) became their foundational reference point.

We're now getting a generation of politicians who grew up with Storybook Maggie; Winter of discontent, 365 economists, Falklands, Scargill, No No No, treachery with a smile on its face, The End. And trying to build a politics on that is as unrealistic as trying to build a model of Britain's place in the world on "We will never surrender".

Hmm. Think you have a good point there. The politico-economic equivalent of regarding Commando magazines (@ 1/- IIRC) as serious military history?

FrankBooth said:

wth

Some bloke called Arthur is in the Liverpool squad. Amazingly he's not an Englishman but a Brazilian.

Didn't he used to play for Camelot?

HYUFD said:

Foxy said:

kyf_100 said:

Stuartinromford said:

BigRich said:

JosiasJessop said:

This is a great idea (and great PR):

"Our colleagues get an extra day off when their kids have their first day at school, so you may notice a different colleague in your local Timpson shop next week, helping cover for this important day in a families life."

https://twitter.com/JamesTCobbler/status/1565977459664850945

Timpson's, is a great company for many reasons,

Amongst other things it devolves and lot of power/decition making alterity to the lowest level possible.
Is consistently ranked as the best or near best of all UK large company's. for looking after there employees.
Actively recruits ex-convicts to give them a second chance in life.

It's also the largest UK company still owned by the founding family, and one of the last vestiges of what I consider proper capitalism, where entrappers put there name on the company, and their reputation and the companies reputation become one and the same.

Isn't family ownership put forward as a reason why German capitalism works?

The reputation thing is interesting. None of us really know who owns/runs anything in the UK, so what's the incentive for a manager to be a good steward?

Family ownership of companies is a terrible thing! Have we not seen Succession?!

I can think of a couple of examples of companies where the offspring were not up to the job, leading to serious decline.

Meritocracy over monarchy when it comes to business...

Clogs to clogs over 3 generations is often true, but the Timpsons seem to be an exception.

For smaller businesses family ownership often works down the generations as they are invested in it and the product.

For big business though you need an
outside CEO and board to manage it given its scale, hence the Cohen family long since lost control of Tesco for example

True, though Aldi and Lidl (to take a couple of German examples) are still privately owned.

And, yes, there are definite problems with that model as well. But some of the UK's difficulties, especially short-termism, are consistent with a model where a lot of things aren't really owned or run by anybody indentifiable- we just have ownership of tiny slices through financial institutions and management by randoms who flit from firm to firm.

Nice example of how even the thoughtful media have entirely given up on the distinction between news, comment and opinion. In the long run this is sad.


https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/sep/03/jacob-rees-mogg-blocking-major-uk-tourism-campaign

Stuartinromford said:

kle4 said:

MoonRabbit said:

Stuartinromford said:

MoonRabbit said:

Razedabode said:

I’m still absolutely horrified at the thought of Rees-Mogg as BEIS. Will be a divisive period of office

It's astounding
Time is fleeting
Madness takes its toll
But listen closely
Not for very much longer
I've got to keep control

As both BJO and HY praised Boris for a jump to the left (couldn’t see it myself) here comes a clear step to the right…

From Monday - Thatcherism.

Presumably rather fewer pelvic thrusts.

Though more than enough insanity to go round.

(And don't diss Thatcherism. For most of her Premiership, Maggie was a model of moderation and pragmatism, certainly compared with what seems to be incoming.)

Absolutely! Lady Thatcher would put taxes up in this situation like she did when she came into power - these tribute acts havn’t a clue how to do Thatcherism properly, with the pragmatism built in!

Most 'isms' seem to be based on isolated and out of context quotes of leaders people liked, rather than any analysis of what worked then and why, and how to adapt to the modern context.

And part of the problem the incoming government have is that they weren't really around during Thatcherism. Thatcher left office in 1990, when Liz was struggling to get GCSEs at her terrible comprehensive school or something.

I wonder if there's an echo of the way that World War II affected Boomer attitudes, and frankly sent them a bit loopy. By definition, Boomers didn't experience the War themselves- the most that can be said is that some might have concrete memories of rationing. But they will have heard all the heroic stories (probably again and again, if my experience of growing up in the 1970s was anything to go by). And those stories (incomplete and edited, as all stories are) became their foundational reference point.

We're now getting a generation of politicians who grew up with Storybook Maggie; Winter of discontent, 365 economists, Falklands, Scargill, No No No, treachery with a smile on its face, The End. And trying to build a politics on that is as unrealistic as trying to build a model of Britain's place in the world on "We will never surrender".

Indeed. We have evidence of WWMD when taking office in a period of inflation and strikes.
Double VAT.
Incidentally. I have to stop myself when I read Moon talking about "Lady Thatcher". I've almost never heard her referred to as that by anyone over 50.

dixiedean said:

Stuartinromford said:

kle4 said:

MoonRabbit said:

Stuartinromford said:

MoonRabbit said:

Razedabode said:

I’m still absolutely horrified at the thought of Rees-Mogg as BEIS. Will be a divisive period of office

It's astounding
Time is fleeting
Madness takes its toll
But listen closely
Not for very much longer
I've got to keep control

As both BJO and HY praised Boris for a jump to the left (couldn’t see it myself) here comes a clear step to the right…

From Monday - Thatcherism.

Presumably rather fewer pelvic thrusts.

Though more than enough insanity to go round.

(And don't diss Thatcherism. For most of her Premiership, Maggie was a model of moderation and pragmatism, certainly compared with what seems to be incoming.)

Absolutely! Lady Thatcher would put taxes up in this situation like she did when she came into power - these tribute acts havn’t a clue how to do Thatcherism properly, with the pragmatism built in!

Most 'isms' seem to be based on isolated and out of context quotes of leaders people liked, rather than any analysis of what worked then and why, and how to adapt to the modern context.

And part of the problem the incoming government have is that they weren't really around during Thatcherism. Thatcher left office in 1990, when Liz was struggling to get GCSEs at her terrible comprehensive school or something.

I wonder if there's an echo of the way that World War II affected Boomer attitudes, and frankly sent them a bit loopy. By definition, Boomers didn't experience the War themselves- the most that can be said is that some might have concrete memories of rationing. But they will have heard all the heroic stories (probably again and again, if my experience of growing up in the 1970s was anything to go by). And those stories (incomplete and edited, as all stories are) became their foundational reference point.

We're now getting a generation of politicians who grew up with Storybook Maggie; Winter of discontent, 365 economists, Falklands, Scargill, No No No, treachery with a smile on its face, The End. And trying to build a politics on that is as unrealistic as trying to build a model of Britain's place in the world on "We will never surrender".

Indeed. We have evidence of WWMD when taking office in a period of inflation and strikes.
Double VAT.
Incidentally. I have to stop myself when I read Moon talking about "Lady Thatcher". I've almost never heard her referred to as that by anyone over 50.

TBF it is a matter of avoiding anachronism. Mrs T was Mrs T when she had her impact, so it's the correct term to use in any discussion of that impact.

I don't think she had much impact as a Lady specifically?

Theuniondivvie said:

I wonder why Father Calv crowbarred paedophillia into a tweet about transgender issues?



Only joking, I know exactly why he did!

Actually there is genuine concern about why some people may be keen to encourage the use of puberty blockers. It is worthy of consideration.

dixiedean said:

Stuartinromford said:

kle4 said:

MoonRabbit said:

Stuartinromford said:

MoonRabbit said:

Razedabode said:

I’m still absolutely horrified at the thought of Rees-Mogg as BEIS. Will be a divisive period of office

It's astounding
Time is fleeting
Madness takes its toll
But listen closely
Not for very much longer
I've got to keep control

As both BJO and HY praised Boris for a jump to the left (couldn’t see it myself) here comes a clear step to the right…

From Monday - Thatcherism.

Presumably rather fewer pelvic thrusts.

Though more than enough insanity to go round.

(And don't diss Thatcherism. For most of her Premiership, Maggie was a model of moderation and pragmatism, certainly compared with what seems to be incoming.)

Absolutely! Lady Thatcher would put taxes up in this situation like she did when she came into power - these tribute acts havn’t a clue how to do Thatcherism properly, with the pragmatism built in!

Most 'isms' seem to be based on isolated and out of context quotes of leaders people liked, rather than any analysis of what worked then and why, and how to adapt to the modern context.

And part of the problem the incoming government have is that they weren't really around during Thatcherism. Thatcher left office in 1990, when Liz was struggling to get GCSEs at her terrible comprehensive school or something.

I wonder if there's an echo of the way that World War II affected Boomer attitudes, and frankly sent them a bit loopy. By definition, Boomers didn't experience the War themselves- the most that can be said is that some might have concrete memories of rationing. But they will have heard all the heroic stories (probably again and again, if my experience of growing up in the 1970s was anything to go by). And those stories (incomplete and edited, as all stories are) became their foundational reference point.

We're now getting a generation of politicians who grew up with Storybook Maggie; Winter of discontent, 365 economists, Falklands, Scargill, No No No, treachery with a smile on its face, The End. And trying to build a politics on that is as unrealistic as trying to build a model of Britain's place in the world on "We will never surrender".

Indeed. We have evidence of WWMD when taking office in a period of inflation and strikes.
Double VAT.
Incidentally. I have to stop myself when I read Moon talking about "Lady Thatcher". I've almost never heard her referred to as that by anyone over 50.

Another confounding feature is that pretty well all males alive today who were born before World War II did compulsory military service; nobody born afterwards joined the armed services unless they wanted to!

DavidL said:

CarlottaVance said:

Third, rate, like the Johnson Conservative Party.

Talking of third rate, I’ve found the only people on the planet surprised by the Nordstream closure - the NYT:

In a Surprise, Russia Says the Gas Pipeline to Germany Will Remain Closed

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/02/business/gazprom-nordstream.html?

Probably stuck trying to work out why this is the fault of Brexit.

To be fair, at the macro level, it is surprising that a state is keen to cut off its biggest single source of revenue (I vaguely asume?)
Russia's finances must be getting very stretched now, presumably.

NickPalmer said:

Stuartinromford said:

HYUFD said:

Foxy said:

kyf_100 said:

Stuartinromford said:

BigRich said:

JosiasJessop said:

This is a great idea (and great PR):

"Our colleagues get an extra day off when their kids have their first day at school, so you may notice a different colleague in your local Timpson shop next week, helping cover for this important day in a families life."

https://twitter.com/JamesTCobbler/status/1565977459664850945

Timpson's, is a great company for many reasons,

Amongst other things it devolves and lot of power/decition making alterity to the lowest level possible.
Is consistently ranked as the best or near best of all UK large company's. for looking after there employees.
Actively recruits ex-convicts to give them a second chance in life.

It's also the largest UK company still owned by the founding family, and one of the last vestiges of what I consider proper capitalism, where entrappers put there name on the company, and their reputation and the companies reputation become one and the same.

Isn't family ownership put forward as a reason why German capitalism works?

The reputation thing is interesting. None of us really know who owns/runs anything in the UK, so what's the incentive for a manager to be a good steward?

Family ownership of companies is a terrible thing! Have we not seen Succession?!

I can think of a couple of examples of companies where the offspring were not up to the job, leading to serious decline.

Meritocracy over monarchy when it comes to business...

Clogs to clogs over 3 generations is often true, but the Timpsons seem to be an exception.

For smaller businesses family ownership often works down the generations as they are invested in it and the product.

For big business though you need an
outside CEO and board to manage it given its scale, hence the Cohen family long since lost control of Tesco for example

True, though Aldi and Lidl (to take a couple of German examples) are still privately owned.

And, yes, there are definite problems with that model as well. But some of the UK's difficulties, especially short-termism, are consistent with a model where a lot of things aren't really owned or run by anybody indentifiable- we just have ownership of tiny slices through financial institutions and management by randoms who flit from firm to firm.

There are snags about family ownership, akin to the snags of monarchy. Yes, they are invested in it, but whether the family are any good at business is random. My father was made Export Director of Borwicks Baking Powder, which the very elderly here may recall. He hated it (but felt he had to do it to avoid upsetting the family) and said he didn't have a feeling for what worked - e.g. he cut the price, only to see sales go down because customers liked it as a quality British brand and assumed the quality had deteriorated. Eventually, the firm was taken over by a self-raising flour firm who just wanted the name. They sacked all the directors (to my father's relief - he went on to be a very successful UN translator) and ran the company much more successfully.

Sadly the plc is not really working either.

On this Gordon Ghekko had a point.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PF_iorX_MAw

HYUFD said:

Theuniondivvie said:

I wonder why Father Calv crowbarred paedophillia into a tweet about transgender issues?



Only joking, I know exactly why he did!

Father Calvin now a deacon in the Free Church of England

https://fcofe.org.uk

Not what it sounds like - but an Anglican-tradition Catholic church* which thought that the C of E was too [edit - got completely confused by the story line] Anglo-Catholic in 1844.

*Not RC but in the C of E s\ense.

F1: looking very close at the sharp end, no tip as the Ladbrokes market is not each way (and with potentially six drivers in it I don't feel like picking one).

https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2022/09/the-netherlands-pre-qualifying-2022.html

Nigelb said:

Andy_JS said:

How predictable that Putin shuts down the gas pipeline at the start of September.

Refusing to give in to blackmail is painful.
But playing along with it usually ends up even more expensive in the long run.

An attitude which leads to the view of those trolls and Putinistas early in the war - war is terrible, mmkay, so supporting Ukraine to prolong the fight is wrong, man.

DavidL said:

CarlottaVance said:

Third, rate, like the Johnson Conservative Party.

Talking of third rate, I’ve found the only people on the planet surprised by the Nordstream closure - the NYT:

In a Surprise, Russia Says the Gas Pipeline to Germany Will Remain Closed

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/02/business/gazprom-nordstream.html?

Probably stuck trying to work out why this is the fault of Brexit.

Brexit distracted and weakened the EUs focus, so Putin felt confident the wider West would not unify if he invaded Ukraine, so he only did it due to Brexit.

Done.

kle4 said:

DavidL said:

CarlottaVance said:

Third, rate, like the Johnson Conservative Party.

Talking of third rate, I’ve found the only people on the planet surprised by the Nordstream closure - the NYT:

In a Surprise, Russia Says the Gas Pipeline to Germany Will Remain Closed

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/02/business/gazprom-nordstream.html?

Probably stuck trying to work out why this is the fault of Brexit.

Brexit distracted and weakened the EUs focus, so Putin felt confident the wider West would not unify if he invaded Ukraine, so he only did it due to Brexit.

Done.

You should be on their editorial board.

Stuartinromford said:

HYUFD said:

2% of voters think Truss will be a great PM, 20% think she will be average, 35% terrible
https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1565955017810628609?s=20&t=8WK0GjsJphE7QmaAAJxroQ

Given that she faces significant opposition (and Labour won't want her doing well, either), those figures aren't that surprising, are they? I wonder what the equivalent numbers are for her predecessors.

One take is that she can only surprise on the upside. But in general, first impressions last. Or get worse as entropy does what it does.

Truss will probably be the least anticipated and welcomed new PM since Callaghan or Home and the least welcomed new Conservative leader since IDS.

So yes she does have the advantage of such low expectations she can only go up

NickPalmer said:

HYUFD said:

2% of voters think Truss will be a great PM, 20% think she will be average, 35% terrible
https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1565955017810628609?s=20&t=8WK0GjsJphE7QmaAAJxroQ

Things can only get better... if next week she seems halfway competent and proactive, people will feel quite pleasantly surprised.

I expect she will be, her JRM love notwithstanding.

But if things seem to be going to shit in the country - and they do, which will take time to address, if it can be - she will seem incompetent even if she's doing a decent job.

Such is the life of a politician at mercy of events.

I have just had a little bet with Ladbrokes on Truss getting 70%+ at 8/1, combined with a cover-my-arse bet of 65-70% at 2/1.

If you really think she will under-perform, 50-55% is available at 11/1...

Cookie said:

DavidL said:

CarlottaVance said:

Third, rate, like the Johnson Conservative Party.

Talking of third rate, I’ve found the only people on the planet surprised by the Nordstream closure - the NYT:

In a Surprise, Russia Says the Gas Pipeline to Germany Will Remain Closed

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/02/business/gazprom-nordstream.html?

Probably stuck trying to work out why this is the fault of Brexit.

To be fair, at the macro level, it is surprising that a state is keen to cut off its biggest single source of revenue (I vaguely asume?)
Russia's finances must be getting very stretched now, presumably.

I understood that oil was far and away their biggest revenue source ?

This move is probably a reaction to international attempts to cap the price paid for Russian oil.

So a fair bit of the speculative froth on the gas market is being burnt off (hopefully with a good number of the speculators) with gas futures down over 15% yesterday alone and well off over the last month.
The UN index of food prices has now fallen below what it was before Russia invaded in February.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-62769675

It is possible, no more, that the Truss government may find a bit of unexpected and entirely undeserved wind in its sails over the next week or two when those absurd inflationary models indicating 18 or even more than 20% are recognised as the total rubbish that they were and inflation edges down. If this is combined with a rational plan for protecting the most vulnerable from the short term pain (ideally by stealing some of Rishi's ideas) things might start to look a lot better than people were expecting in the winter of doom.

There is a potential for a relaunch of a government with a sense of purpose (lost since at least Christmas) and a plan (pretty much a total innovation). Any such plan will change frequently but one of Truss's better traits is that she has no problem discarding what doesn't work.

Theuniondivvie said:

I wonder why Father Calv crowbarred paedophillia into a tweet about transgender issues?



Only joking, I know exactly why he did!

But if we self-identify as a pensioners do we get all the goodies they enjoy?

rottenborough said:

StillWaters said:

rottenborough said:

The New York Times
@nytimes
Barbara Ehrenreich, a journalist, activist and author, has died at 81. Her book "Nickel and Dimed," an undercover account of the indignities of being a low-wage worker in the U.S., became a best seller and a classic in social justice literature.

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1565761476928872450

I read that over the summer and really really didn’t like it.

The subject and some of her observations were interesting. But she was really unpleasantly sneering about the ordinary people that she encountered. A real theme of her own intrinsic superiority throughout. I very nearly abandoned the book (something I almost never do)

I read it 20 years ago so can't remember, but you may be right.

It’s a shame - Heartland was really good and I’m looking forward to Hillbilly Elegy - and thought this would be similar

DavidL said:

So a fair bit of the speculative froth on the gas market is being burnt off (hopefully with a good number of the speculators) with gas futures down over 15% yesterday alone and well off over the last month.
The UN index of food prices has now fallen below what it was before Russia invaded in February.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-62769675

It is possible, no more, that the Truss government may find a bit of unexpected and entirely undeserved wind in its sails over the next week or two when those absurd inflationary models indicating 18 or even more than 20% are recognised as the total rubbish that they were and inflation edges down. If this is combined with a rational plan for protecting the most vulnerable from the short term pain (ideally by stealing some of Rishi's ideas) things might start to look a lot better than people were expecting in the winter of doom.

There is a potential for a relaunch of a government with a sense of purpose (lost since at least Christmas) and a plan (pretty much a total innovation). Any such plan will change frequently but one of Truss's better traits is that she has no problem discarding what doesn't work.

I want Liz Truss to succeed. I like that she aims for growth rather than cuts and austerity. What I do not see is where this growth will come from. Tax cuts for the rich and hoping for the best will not cut it.

DecrepiterJohnL said:

DavidL said:

So a fair bit of the speculative froth on the gas market is being burnt off (hopefully with a good number of the speculators) with gas futures down over 15% yesterday alone and well off over the last month.
The UN index of food prices has now fallen below what it was before Russia invaded in February.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-62769675

It is possible, no more, that the Truss government may find a bit of unexpected and entirely undeserved wind in its sails over the next week or two when those absurd inflationary models indicating 18 or even more than 20% are recognised as the total rubbish that they were and inflation edges down. If this is combined with a rational plan for protecting the most vulnerable from the short term pain (ideally by stealing some of Rishi's ideas) things might start to look a lot better than people were expecting in the winter of doom.

There is a potential for a relaunch of a government with a sense of purpose (lost since at least Christmas) and a plan (pretty much a total innovation). Any such plan will change frequently but one of Truss's better traits is that she has no problem discarding what doesn't work.

I want Liz Truss to succeed. I like that she aims for growth rather than cuts and austerity. What I do not see is where this growth will come from. Tax cuts for the rich and hoping for the best will not cut it.

When VAT was last raised, those against the rise attacked it from the left as being the most regressive of all taxes.

Hopefully, if VAT is cut, they will reminded of what was said back then.

I happen to disagree that VAT is hugely regressive, AIUI the bottom decile spend very little that attracts VAT, other than fuel and alcohol.

The most regressive tax of all - that will be the TV licence.

Dura_Ace said:

Just severed the top joint of my left middle finger in a hydraulic press so I've come out of the workshop and come on here for a bit. Fucking LOL.

Ouch. No way to stitch it back on?

Dura_Ace said:

Just severed the top joint of my left middle finger in a hydraulic press so I've come out of the workshop and come on here for a bit. Fucking LOL.

Ouch. That’s dedication to PB

You may bleed out even as you write, but at least you’ll have told us the specs on your new Austin Allegro 3.2

Mr. Ace, not worth packing it in ice for the chance of it being re-attached?

DecrepiterJohnL said:

DavidL said:

So a fair bit of the speculative froth on the gas market is being burnt off (hopefully with a good number of the speculators) with gas futures down over 15% yesterday alone and well off over the last month.
The UN index of food prices has now fallen below what it was before Russia invaded in February.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-62769675

It is possible, no more, that the Truss government may find a bit of unexpected and entirely undeserved wind in its sails over the next week or two when those absurd inflationary models indicating 18 or even more than 20% are recognised as the total rubbish that they were and inflation edges down. If this is combined with a rational plan for protecting the most vulnerable from the short term pain (ideally by stealing some of Rishi's ideas) things might start to look a lot better than people were expecting in the winter of doom.

There is a potential for a relaunch of a government with a sense of purpose (lost since at least Christmas) and a plan (pretty much a total innovation). Any such plan will change frequently but one of Truss's better traits is that she has no problem discarding what doesn't work.

I want Liz Truss to succeed. I like that she aims for growth rather than cuts and austerity. What I do not see is where this growth will come from. Tax cuts for the rich and hoping for the best will not cut it.

I think that she thinks that tax cuts for corporations is going to encourage a lot of new investment generating growth. I fear that this is optimistic for a variety of reasons.
(1) investing anything right now takes serious cahones. The medium term outlook is as uncertain as it has been at any time since at least 2008.
(2) CT is practically a voluntary tax for multinationals anyway, they don't care what the rate is.
(3) we already have pretty full employment and a serious lack of skills, who is going to man these new industries?
(4) inflation makes profitability a bit of a lottery.

There are a load of other reasons too but that is probably enough to be going on with.

FrankBooth said:

wth

Some bloke called Arthur is in the Liverpool squad. Amazingly he's not an Englishman but a Brazilian.

Pronounced Art-her.

Dynamo said:

More thoughts on why Putin is snubbing Gorby's send-off:

1. Gorby ended the 1979-89 war in Afghanistan.
If Putin were to say "Let's hear it for Gorby - here's what he achieved", he could hardly avoid mentioning Afghanistan.

2. He doesn't want to upset China.
Never mind that the withdrawal from Afghanistan helped normalise Sino-Soviet relations, which was one of Gorby's great diplomatic achievements. Gorby was a westerniser. The Chinese government doesn't want the Kremlin to have time for westernisers.

3. Putin hates Gorbachev for “Breaking up the Soviet Union”, at a time when he’s losing a significant part of his own military trying to re-constitute it?

HYUFD said:

NickPalmer said:

HYUFD said:

2% of voters think Truss will be a great PM, 20% think she will be average, 35% terrible
https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1565955017810628609?s=20&t=8WK0GjsJphE7QmaAAJxroQ

Things can only get better... if next week she seems halfway competent and proactive, people will feel quite pleasantly surprised.

Though more British voters think the earth is flat than Truss will make a great PM

https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1565969503757934592?s=20&t=5UlIIZHsIO9Bvfl9iAaqfQ

Wait. Which one of you is on which side?

Sandpit said:

Dynamo said:

More thoughts on why Putin is snubbing Gorby's send-off:

1. Gorby ended the 1979-89 war in Afghanistan.
If Putin were to say "Let's hear it for Gorby - here's what he achieved", he could hardly avoid mentioning Afghanistan.

2. He doesn't want to upset China.
Never mind that the withdrawal from Afghanistan helped normalise Sino-Soviet relations, which was one of Gorby's great diplomatic achievements. Gorby was a westerniser. The Chinese government doesn't want the Kremlin to have time for westernisers.

3. Putin hates Gorbachev for “Breaking up the Soviet Union”, at a time when he’s losing a significant part of his own military trying to re-constitute it?

Does he blame Gorbachev for Chernobyl? What does he think Gorbachev should have done when 92% of Ukrainians voted for independence? Ultimately Putin has no answer to this.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1991_Ukrainian_independence_referendum

I'd also like to know whether western leaders called him out on his b/s or if they indulged him.

YBarddCwsc said:

https://tinyurl.com/4th6na9p

One of the best-written and saddest pieces of journalism I have read for a long time.

I finished the article in tears.

Not sure I can even bear to read it

Anything about dying/suffering kids makes me blub

But OK. Here goes

Leon said:

I hereby inaugurate the annual @Dura_Ace Hydraulic Stamp Trophy, given to the commenter who manages to comment despite being significantly injured or severely ill as he or she types. Bonus points for the most spectacular injuries or incapacitation

Anyone who actually dies while commenting gets a Lifetime Achievement Award

It's a nice idea but I have a couple of quibbles. First, "significantly injured" or "severely ill" - I think we'd need @Foxy to adjudicate on the real seriousness. Having a leg drop off is pretty serious but a headache or chest pain could also be serious.

As for the "Lifetime Achievement Award", apart from the notion the last thing you do in your life is to write a comment on PB and press SEND sounds a little trite, you may be surprised to hear we've had people come on this forum with one identity and suddenly depart. Yet, and this is the strange bit, a new poster comes on who writes in exactly the same style as the person who departed - what a coincidence.

We would need some solid proof said poster is no more and hasn't just faked their own demise like John Stonehouse or Reggie Perrin.

In all fairness, we have lost some fine posters down the years - we all have our favourites among the departed - mine was @MarkSenior

stodge said:

Leon said:

I hereby inaugurate the annual @Dura_Ace Hydraulic Stamp Trophy, given to the commenter who manages to comment despite being significantly injured or severely ill as he or she types. Bonus points for the most spectacular injuries or incapacitation

Anyone who actually dies while commenting gets a Lifetime Achievement Award

It's a nice idea but I have a couple of quibbles. First, "significantly injured" or "severely ill" - I think we'd need @Foxy to adjudicate on the real seriousness. Having a leg drop off is pretty serious but a headache or chest pain could also be serious.

As for the "Lifetime Achievement Award", apart from the notion the last thing you do in your life is to write a comment on PB and press SEND sounds a little trite, you may be surprised to hear we've had people come on this forum with one identity and suddenly depart. Yet, and this is the strange bit, a new poster comes on who writes in exactly the same style as the person who departed - what a coincidence.

We would need some solid proof said poster is no more and hasn't just faked their own demise like John Stonehouse or Reggie Perrin.

In all fairness, we have lost some fine posters down the years - we all have our favourites among the departed - mine was @MarkSenior

@SeanT was a sad loss. I miss his wit, humour and enthusiasms. Sometimes it seems that there are still echoes on the site but it is not the same.

Dura_Ace said:

Nigelb said:

Dura_Ace said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Ace, not worth packing it in ice for the chance of it being re-attached?

The "bit" was completely smashed to fuck. I've broken my left wrist so many times I only have limited used of that hand anyway so fuck it.

Just the tip, or all the way to the first joint ?

Kind of hard to say. I only got a minute glimpse of bone before it all looked like Kemi Badenoch's mooncup. The whole bit with the fingernail is gone because I threw that in the bin as well.

Painful.

On the upside it might give you a particular insight into yakuza movies.
And there's always the Dave Allen impressions.

OK, @YBarddCwsc I came close to tears. Awful

And angering

Leon said:

OK, @YBarddCwsc I came close to tears. Awful

And angering

Unsurprising. Sepsis is missed quite a lot, I believe.