politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why I’ve taken the 6/1 on Alistair Carmichael to be the nex

OblitusSumMe said:

___Bobajob___ said:

The WLQ is as old as the hills...

I think one of our Scottish posters did once clarify this, but what happened before Devolution?

Scotland has always had a legal and education system distinct from England's, and so pretty much every education [and many law-related] Bills in the history of the Union would have faced the same issues as at present. Presumably there were Education Acts that applied only to Scotland, but were voted on by the whole House?

There were proportionately more Scottish MPs. Everything was voted on by the whole house. There was a Scottish Office, a Scottish, Scottish Minister and a Scottish civil service. And lots of Scottish MPs.

But I do not see what any of that has to do with where we find ourselves now.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Neil said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TGOHF said:

dr_spyn said:

Paul Waugh ‏@paulwaugh 15s
Chuka on Today says 'I am not aware' of windfall tax plan for tobacco firms to raise cash for NHS.

Strategic retreat to previously unprepared positions.

Are there any tobacco firms left in the Uk ? Obviously they will leave if taxed.

This mansion tax - it sounds difficult to collect and difficult to work out if you pay it or not (there must be a lot of houses worth 1.6-2.4 million.

Labour are basically too scared to raise the top levels of income tax.

If the Lib Dems back a mansion tax as well, then Twickenham and places like that become Tory gains.

It didnt lose them Twickenham in 2010 so why should it lose them Twickenham in 2015?

Vince has lost his magic and mojo

Then that will be why he loses - not the mansion tax policy.

OblitusSumMe said:

___Bobajob___ said:

The WLQ is as old as the hills...

I think one of our Scottish posters did once clarify this, but what happened before Devolution?

Scotland has always had a legal and education system distinct from England's, and so pretty much every education [and many law-related] Bills in the history of the Union would have faced the same issues as at present. Presumably there were Education Acts that applied only to Scotland, but were voted on by the whole House?

Indeed. The existence of a country - or polity if you like - with its legal system determined solely by a political party with a minority of represetnatives in that country is always problematical.

There would also be other areas of devolved administration, where acts were passed by the whole house.

Also there would be the question of a Secretary of State appointed by the in-Scotland minority party and making administrative decisions which were not supported by the Scots.

One thinks of the poll tax, for instance.

How much this reverse, but very real, WLQ was aproblem throughout history would depend on percepton - if politics were much the same balance as in the UK as a whole versus today - and how things were done - if only the Scots MPs could be ersed to turn up for a Scottish bill then there might not have been a problem. Would be interesting to know.

On a historical note, also, one might also add religion, before the disestablishment of the Kirk. IIRC the 1843 Disruption of the Kirk was in part a reaction to the use of non-Scottish votes in Westminster to impose decisions unwelcome to a majority of the Assembly of the Kirk. This was pretty offensive for obvious reasons, not least because (as was pointed out at the time) it breached the Treaty of Union, in which the security of the Kirk was promised.

___Bobajob___ said:

OblitusSumMe said:

___Bobajob___ said:

The WLQ is as old as the hills...

I think one of our Scottish posters did once clarify this, but what happened before Devolution?

Scotland has always had a legal and education system distinct from England's, and so pretty much every education [and many law-related] Bills in the history of the Union would have faced the same issues as at present. Presumably there were Education Acts that applied only to Scotland, but were voted on by the whole House?

Indeed I suspect there were. And what of the West Kensington Question? Why should London MPs vote on matters that are devolved to the GLA? This injustice must end and end now!

Because prescriptions & Uni fees etc are the same in London as in the rest of England?

This whole argument is stupid, we are either the uk or not. Would have been better if YES has prevailed, all we get now is a mockery of a sham of a uk which is divorced in all but name.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Neil said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TGOHF said:

dr_spyn said:

Paul Waugh ‏@paulwaugh 15s
Chuka on Today says 'I am not aware' of windfall tax plan for tobacco firms to raise cash for NHS.

Strategic retreat to previously unprepared positions.

Are there any tobacco firms left in the Uk ? Obviously they will leave if taxed.

This mansion tax - it sounds difficult to collect and difficult to work out if you pay it or not (there must be a lot of houses worth 1.6-2.4 million.

Labour are basically too scared to raise the top levels of income tax.

If the Lib Dems back a mansion tax as well, then Twickenham and places like that become Tory gains.

It didnt lose them Twickenham in 2010 so why should it lose them Twickenham in 2015?

Vince has lost his magic and mojo

Does he still have a nuclear bomb?

___Bobajob___ said:

isam said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

Socrates said:

Hilarious article in the Guardian where the author tries to determine if he hates his Britishness or Englishness more:

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/22/thanks-no-scotland-entrenched-little-england

To be a north London lefty is to be a political refugee.. from middle England!

Be careful when using the term "North London leftie" on here... Some people think it's is an anti Semitic slur (?!)

Says he is a manc in the article anyway... And his downbeat view of his Englishness might be something to do with his manic depression

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2012/jun/06/exercise-depression-research-misses-point

Perhaps he was just having a particularly bad day

Not true. It is specifically the phrase North London intellectual that has a whiff of antisemitism about it. A bit like the nasty bacon sandwich stuff.

Please, noone wants a re-run of that argument. Before we know it we'll be back on to farmers' markets and there will be carnage.

Neil said:

eek said:

rottenborough said:

Scott_P said:

@Jo_Suherman: Audible gasps at @IpsosMORI fringe as audience presented graph showing Ed's unpopularity on a par with IDS, Howard and Hague as opp leaders

Ed is no Kinnock. Not even Foot.

Dear God, where have these activists been for the last four years?

A London bubble based on the tweet I just saw

Patrick O'Flynn ‏@oflynnmep 34m
What an amazing stat - 48% of Labour Party members are from London. No wonder this party doesn't understand Britain.

What country does Patrick O'Flynn think London is in?

Logic fail there Neil. Just because London is in England does not mean it is representative of the country as a whole.

Something too many politicians and commentators seem to forget.

Every BJESUS

17.6.14 LAB 330 CON 263 LD 33 UKIP 0 Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
24.6.14 LAB 330 CON 263 LD 33 UKIP 0 Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
1.7.14 LAB 329(330) CON 268 (263) LD 29(33) UKIP 0(0) Others 24(24) (Ed is crap is PM)
8.7.14 LAB 330 (329) CON 264(268) LD 32(29) UKIP 0(0) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
15.7.14 LAB 329 (330) CON 264(264) LD 33(32) UKIP 0(0) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
22.7.14 LAB 331 (329) CON 261(264) LD 34(33) UKIP 0(0) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
29.7.14 LAB 332 (331) CON 260(261) LD 34(34) UKIP 0(0) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
5.8.14 LAB 330(332) CON 262(260) LD 34(34 UKIP0(0) Others 24 (Ed is Crap is PM)
12.8.14 LAB 332 (330) CON 260(262) LD 34(34) UKIP 0(0) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
18.8.14 LAB 331(332) CON 261(260) LD 34(34) UKIP0(0) Others 24 Ed is crap is PM
26.8.14 LAB 333(331) CON 259(261)LD(34)UKIP 0(0) Others 24 Ed is crap is PM
2.9.14 LAB331(333) CON261(259) LD24(34) Others24 (24) Ed is crap is PM
9.9.14 LAB332(331) CON260(261) LD34(34) Others24 (24) Ed is crap is PM
16.9.14 LAB 331(332) CON 262(260) LD 33(34) UKIP0(0) Others 24 Ed is crap is PM
23.9.14 LAB 334 (331) CON 260(262) LD 32(33) UKIP 0(0) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)

isam said:

Love the fact that "West Lothian Question" is copyright J.E.Powell

If there is a reshuffle, I assume the bet is void? Disgraceful from paddy power if not

Is it (I saw you said it last night).

My memory (which could be false) is that it was called that because of a famous speech by Tam Dayell (?sp) a great Labour MP OE. He had about 3 or 4 examples of Scottish towns paired with English towns with the same initial letter that he used as a rhetorical device.

But he was the MP for West Lothian, so that was the name that stuck.

TheWatcher said:

___Bobajob___ said:

isam said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

Socrates said:

Hilarious article in the Guardian where the author tries to determine if he hates his Britishness or Englishness more:

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/22/thanks-no-scotland-entrenched-little-england

To be a north London lefty is to be a political refugee.. from middle England!

Be careful when using the term "North London leftie" on here... Some people think it's is an anti Semitic slur (?!)

Says he is a manc in the article anyway... And his downbeat view of his Englishness might be something to do with his manic depression

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2012/jun/06/exercise-depression-research-misses-point

Perhaps he was just having a particularly bad day

A bit like the nasty bacon sandwich stuff.

The result would have been the same if it was cheese and pickle, or jam. Ed looked like a complete moron - get over it.

Exactly.

I for one don't care how he looks when he eats a sandwich of any sort, who wouldn't look awkward once or twice if photographed eating 100 times?

But to link it to anti semitism is ridiculous. It looks like people are searching for things to be offended by.

The only way I'd think it was anti Semitic is if the sandwich wasn't bacon but people were reporting that it was

Flightpath said:

OblitusSumMe said:

___Bobajob___ said:

The WLQ is as old as the hills...

I think one of our Scottish posters did once clarify this, but what happened before Devolution?

Scotland has always had a legal and education system distinct from England's, and so pretty much every education [and many law-related] Bills in the history of the Union would have faced the same issues as at present. Presumably there were Education Acts that applied only to Scotland, but were voted on by the whole House?

There were proportionately more Scottish MPs. Everything was voted on by the whole house. There was a Scottish Office, a Scottish, Scottish Minister and a Scottish civil service. And lots of Scottish MPs.

But I do not see what any of that has to do with where we find ourselves now.

Well, I didn't raise the point because I felt it had a direct bearing on the situation now, but just because I was interested about the history and context.

If it does make a point it is perhaps that the UK has endured for so long because constitutional anomalies have been tolerated or, more credibly, because the two-sided fight for temporary partisan advantage has largely evened out over time.

Maybe it makes a quirky sort of constitutional balance if the Conservatives win English Votes for English Laws, while Labour get to keep the relatively depopulated inner city seats?

Not my preference - I'm more of an idealistic search for perfection sort of person - but it seems in keeping with the way this country has historically done this sort of thing. Very untidily and to no-one's complete satisfaction.

Charles said:

isam said:

Love the fact that "West Lothian Question" is copyright J.E.Powell

If there is a reshuffle, I assume the bet is void? Disgraceful from paddy power if not

Is it (I saw you said it last night).

My memory (which could be false) is that it was called that because of a famous speech by Tam Dayell (?sp) a great Labour MP OE. He had about 3 or 4 examples of Scottish towns paired with English towns with the same initial letter that he used as a rhetorical device.

But he was the MP for West Lothian, so that was the name that stuck.

"It was actually Enoch Powell, responding to Dalyell, who said “Let us call it the West Lothian Question”, giving a name to a problem that has vexed politicians for decades (Prime Minister William Gladstone, who represented Midlothian in the 19th century, tried to address a similar issue raised by Irish Home Rule in the 1880s). "

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/09/what-west-lothian-question

Ed Miliband should give an excellent speech today. I'm baffled as to why others are expecting otherwise. He's had all summer to prepare and he usually excels at his party conference.

antifrank said:

Ed Miliband should give an excellent speech today. I'm baffled as to why others are expecting otherwise. He's had all summer to prepare and he usually excels at his party conference.

Some of us remember his 2011 speech, which was universally slated.

TGOHF said:

TheWatcher said:

TGOHF said:

Also - will the mansion tax apply in Scotland (asking for JackW) ?

And Primrose Hill? Ed's neighbours will be delighted at the prospect of shelling out another £10K a year.

Good question for Ed - will he be able to claim mansion tax on expenses ?

The average price for a house in the street where Ed lives is now over £2.8 million.....

___Bobajob___ said:

TheWatcher said:

___Bobajob___ said:

isam said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

Socrates said:

Hilarious article in the Guardian where the author tries to determine if he hates his Britishness or Englishness more:

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/22/thanks-no-scotland-entrenched-little-england

To be a north London lefty is to be a political refugee.. from middle England!

Be careful when using the term "North London leftie" on here... Some people think it's is an anti Semitic slur (?!)

Says he is a manc in the article anyway... And his downbeat view of his Englishness might be something to do with his manic depression

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2012/jun/06/exercise-depression-research-misses-point

Perhaps he was just having a particularly bad day

A bit like the nasty bacon sandwich stuff.

The result would have been the same if it was cheese and pickle, or jam. Ed looked like a complete moron - get over it.

Watch the tape. He looks like a normal bloke having breakfast. We'd all look awkward if some cretin stood there with a camera taking 200 freeze frames.

Bobajob. .. you fail to understand that poking fun at Ed is a national sport.. Where were you defending Dave when tim continually attacked him...
Ed looked a berk. That's the reality, get over it.

SquareRoot said:

If anyone wants to raise tax it should be on the nicotine replacement E thingys or whatever they are called. I think these E firms are owned by the tobacco companies???

Tax them to buggery.***


*** speaks reformed smoker not had a fag in 15 months and £250 a month better off every month. A packet of Benson and Hedges is nearly a TENNER now!

Go for it!

Except for those products which are approved by the MHRA, which should be taxed as the licensed medicines they are.

(I may, just may, have an interest in this...) :-) :-)

OblitusSumMe said:

Flightpath said:

OblitusSumMe said:

___Bobajob___ said:

The WLQ is as old as the hills...

I think one of our Scottish posters did once clarify this, but what happened before Devolution?

Scotland has always had a legal and education system distinct from England's, and so pretty much every education [and many law-related] Bills in the history of the Union would have faced the same issues as at present. Presumably there were Education Acts that applied only to Scotland, but were voted on by the whole House?

There were proportionately more Scottish MPs. Everything was voted on by the whole house. There was a Scottish Office, a Scottish, Scottish Minister and a Scottish civil service. And lots of Scottish MPs.

But I do not see what any of that has to do with where we find ourselves now.

Well, I didn't raise the point because I felt it had a direct bearing on the situation now, but just because I was interested about the history and context.

If it does make a point it is perhaps that the UK has endured for so long because constitutional anomalies have been tolerated or, more credibly, because the two-sided fight for temporary partisan advantage has largely evened out over time.

Maybe it makes a quirky sort of constitutional balance if the Conservatives win English Votes for English Laws, while Labour get to keep the relatively depopulated inner city seats?

Not my preference - I'm more of an idealistic search for perfection sort of person - but it seems in keeping with the way this country has historically done this sort of thing. Very untidily and to no-one's complete satisfaction.

Exactly so. To read some folk, one would imagine that the WLQ had been specially invented in 1999 to do down the poor English. Not that it makes it any more acceptable, of course ...

The distinct Scottish legal and educational, etc., systems (enshrined in the 1707 Treaty) do make any monolithic single UK system impossible without addressing that issue, because of their existence and the problem of non-Scottish MPs voting on them. Mr Blair can't be blamed for that - though he did reduce the intensity of that problem by (a) winning in 1997 and (b) setting up the Scottish Parliament. Of course, he did create others ...

I was the first to identify the Kippers scared of a referendum.....

Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB · 1h

???

33% of Ukip voters in @LordAshcroft poll say they're worried that EU referendum would lead to UK leaving EU

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ByM6XYYCYAA4lKa.jpg:large

___Bobajob___ said:

OblitusSumMe said:

___Bobajob___ said:

The WLQ is as old as the hills...

I think one of our Scottish posters did once clarify this, but what happened before Devolution?

Scotland has always had a legal and education system distinct from England's, and so pretty much every education [and many law-related] Bills in the history of the Union would have faced the same issues as at present. Presumably there were Education Acts that applied only to Scotland, but were voted on by the whole House?

Indeed I suspect there were. And what of the West Kensington Question? Why should London MPs vote on matters that are devolved to the GLA? This injustice must end and end now!

I see a couple of questions with this 'West Kensington Question':

1) The powers devolved to the GLA are much less than in Scotland, and I think less than Wales. In many cases (e.g. policing) these are already well split up in the rest of the country.

2) London is a machine that sucks in resources from its surroundings and chucks out (mostly) capital. For instance transport in London effects areas outside London; with Crossrail going well into Essex and now up to Reading and possibly Aylesbury, and Thameslink between Bedford and Brighton. It makes sense for the rest of England to have a say on what happens with transport in London.

TGOHF said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TGOHF said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

antifrank said:

Ed Miliband should give an excellent speech today. I'm baffled as to why others are expecting otherwise. He's had all summer to prepare and he usually excels at his party conference.

Some of us remember his 2011 speech, which was universally slated.

I'd be amazed if there wasn't another rabbit to pull out of the hat - price freeze on food and taxes on fast cars or something.

Feel sorry for me, I have to write a thread on the speech, but I won't be able to watch the speech until midnight at the earliest.

I'm expecting a tax cut for the middle class and tax rises for the parasite high earners/bankers

I think a tax cut is unlikely - that would mean Ed trusts the voters to spend their own money - which he hasn't up until now.

Much more likely he will try and control the cost of something they buy - water or train fares.

Yes thats it - a cut in train fares for hard working London Labour members...

Nationalisation of the railways.

Dr. Spyn, only a quintet of comments but they're universally unsupportive of the plea for money.

My football tips for today

Southampton to beat Arsenal, and Middlesbrough to beat Liverpool

isam said:

Neil said:

eek said:

rottenborough said:

Scott_P said:

@Jo_Suherman: Audible gasps at @IpsosMORI fringe as audience presented graph showing Ed's unpopularity on a par with IDS, Howard and Hague as opp leaders

Ed is no Kinnock. Not even Foot.

Dear God, where have these activists been for the last four years?

A London bubble based on the tweet I just saw

Patrick O'Flynn ‏@oflynnmep 34m
What an amazing stat - 48% of Labour Party members are from London. No wonder this party doesn't understand Britain.

What country does Patrick O'Flynn think London is in?

This table shows why it feels less British than other parts of the uk, and why people living there would find it harder to understand what the rest of the country is like

http://data.london.gov.uk/datafiles/demographics/nationality-london.xls

Can't separate London from the home counties and it's suburbs.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Are there any buzzword bingos markets up for Ed's speech.

Rendered obsolete...

@JoeWatts_: The Ed Miliband random phrase generator by....The Guardian http://t.co/FY6rHcZstk via @dylsharpe

DavidL said:

Not sure about this. I am afraid that Jo Swinson is toast and giving her a higher profile position is going to make no difference. In fact I doubt there will be more than 1 Lib Dem south of Inverness and very possibly none at all.

Presumably you mean south of Inverness but still in Scotland or are you predicting total taxi territory for the Lib Dems?

From today's Times:

"Cameron to cut public funds for Scotland"

No surprise, of course. The beauty of it for both the Tories and the SNP is that any such action seriously damages the British Labour Party in Scotland because of the now proven complicity with the Tories.

isam said:

Charles said:

isam said:

Love the fact that "West Lothian Question" is copyright J.E.Powell

If there is a reshuffle, I assume the bet is void? Disgraceful from paddy power if not

Is it (I saw you said it last night).

My memory (which could be false) is that it was called that because of a famous speech by Tam Dayell (?sp) a great Labour MP OE. He had about 3 or 4 examples of Scottish towns paired with English towns with the same initial letter that he used as a rhetorical device.

But he was the MP for West Lothian, so that was the name that stuck.

"It was actually Enoch Powell, responding to Dalyell, who said “Let us call it the West Lothian Question”, giving a name to a problem that has vexed politicians for decades (Prime Minister William Gladstone, who represented Midlothian in the 19th century, tried to address a similar issue raised by Irish Home Rule in the 1880s). "

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/09/what-west-lothian-question

Fair enough. Powell was a good orator.

But still a nasty bully. And not as smart as he thought he was.

JPJ2 said:

The beauty of it for both the Tories and the SNP is that any such action seriously damages the British Labour Party in Scotland because of the now proven complicity with the Tories.

God save us.

JPJ2 said:

From today's Times:

"Cameron to cut public funds for Scotland"

No surprise, of course. The beauty of it for both the Tories and the SNP is that any such action seriously damages the British Labour Party in Scotland because of the now proven complicity with the Tories.

Do you think that's a tipping point?

chestnut said:

BenM said:

Cumluative YTD Govt borrowing now running £2.6bn up from last year.

Now an awful lot of reliance being placed on self assessed tax receipts from all those thousands of newly created self employed entrepreneurs the Tories keep lauding!

Taxes are flowing in.

It's APF receipts that are down just under £15bn, while debt interest payments are the fastest growing area of expenditure.

I'm using the old basis for measurement which ignored APF tansfers.

And the BBC has this to say on tax receipts:

Economists have spoken of a "taxless" recovery that has made it harder for Mr Osborne to balance the books.

This refers to the fact that receipts from income tax have not been rising as much as the government would have hoped, despite rises in the number of people in work, because pay rises have been meagre for many.

August continued this trend, with income tax receipts and social security payments growing just 1.6% from the previous year.

For the tax year so far, the amount has been 0.6% lower than in the same period a year earlier.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-29324751

Gadfly said:

bigjohnowls said:

Every BJESUS

17.6.14 LAB 330 CON 263 LD 33 UKIP 0 Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
24.6.14 LAB 330 CON 263 LD 33 UKIP 0 Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
1.7.14 LAB 329(330) CON 268 (263) LD 29(33) UKIP 0(0) Others 24(24) (Ed is crap is PM)
8.7.14 LAB 330 (329) CON 264(268) LD 32(29) UKIP 0(0) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
15.7.14 LAB 329 (330) CON 264(264) LD 33(32) UKIP 0(0) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
22.7.14 LAB 331 (329) CON 261(264) LD 34(33) UKIP 0(0) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
29.7.14 LAB 332 (331) CON 260(261) LD 34(34) UKIP 0(0) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
5.8.14 LAB 330(332) CON 262(260) LD 34(34 UKIP0(0) Others 24 (Ed is Crap is PM)
12.8.14 LAB 332 (330) CON 260(262) LD 34(34) UKIP 0(0) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
18.8.14 LAB 331(332) CON 261(260) LD 34(34) UKIP0(0) Others 24 Ed is crap is PM
26.8.14 LAB 333(331) CON 259(261)LD(34)UKIP 0(0) Others 24 Ed is crap is PM
2.9.14 LAB331(333) CON261(259) LD24(34) Others24 (24) Ed is crap is PM
9.9.14 LAB332(331) CON260(261) LD34(34) Others24 (24) Ed is crap is PM
16.9.14 LAB 331(332) CON 262(260) LD 33(34) UKIP0(0) Others 24 Ed is crap is PM
23.9.14 LAB 334 (331) CON 260(262) LD 32(33) UKIP 0(0) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)

Take a look at this...

http://www.mediafire.com/view/b0p8qsmjp1ab8ac/YouGov polls since 2010GE.jpg#

How would you describe the general direction of the red line during the last 500 or so polls?

"Trend" arguments are flimsy at the best of times, and this graph doesn't even support it well in this case. If we want to talk about momentum, I see from the last months a Labour and Conservative party that are more or less flat, while UKIP rise and the Lib Dems fall. How exactly is that supposed to translate into a Tory win?

Gadfly said:

bigjohnowls said:

Every BJESUS

17.6.14 LAB 330 CON 263 LD 33 UKIP 0 Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
24.6.14 LAB 330 CON 263 LD 33 UKIP 0 Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
1.7.14 LAB 329(330) CON 268 (263) LD 29(33) UKIP 0(0) Others 24(24) (Ed is crap is PM)
8.7.14 LAB 330 (329) CON 264(268) LD 32(29) UKIP 0(0) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
15.7.14 LAB 329 (330) CON 264(264) LD 33(32) UKIP 0(0) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
22.7.14 LAB 331 (329) CON 261(264) LD 34(33) UKIP 0(0) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
29.7.14 LAB 332 (331) CON 260(261) LD 34(34) UKIP 0(0) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
5.8.14 LAB 330(332) CON 262(260) LD 34(34 UKIP0(0) Others 24 (Ed is Crap is PM)
12.8.14 LAB 332 (330) CON 260(262) LD 34(34) UKIP 0(0) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
18.8.14 LAB 331(332) CON 261(260) LD 34(34) UKIP0(0) Others 24 Ed is crap is PM
26.8.14 LAB 333(331) CON 259(261)LD(34)UKIP 0(0) Others 24 Ed is crap is PM
2.9.14 LAB331(333) CON261(259) LD24(34) Others24 (24) Ed is crap is PM
9.9.14 LAB332(331) CON260(261) LD34(34) Others24 (24) Ed is crap is PM
16.9.14 LAB 331(332) CON 262(260) LD 33(34) UKIP0(0) Others 24 Ed is crap is PM
23.9.14 LAB 334 (331) CON 260(262) LD 32(33) UKIP 0(0) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)

Take a look at this...

http://www.mediafire.com/view/b0p8qsmjp1ab8ac/YouGov polls since 2010GE.jpg#

How would you describe the general direction of the red line during the last 500 or so polls?

In the last 7 months the Red and Blue lines have run in parallel havent they 7 months to go to GE2015

YG last 7 month averages 4,4,3,4,3,4,3,3

September currently could be either 3 or 4 (exactly 3.5 at the moment)

TheScreamingEagles said:

antifrank said:

Ed Miliband should give an excellent speech today. I'm baffled as to why others are expecting otherwise. He's had all summer to prepare and he usually excels at his party conference.

Some of us remember his 2011 speech, which was universally slated.

I will be looking for something prime ministerial extending a hand across the divide as Tony Blair did so successfully. I need to think this man is not just a partisan policy wonk. I think I'm going to be disappointed.

Is it too early to declare Ed's speech a disaster?

TheScreamingEagles said:

Charles said:

isam said:

Charles said:

isam said:

Love the fact that "West Lothian Question" is copyright J.E.Powell

If there is a reshuffle, I assume the bet is void? Disgraceful from paddy power if not

Is it (I saw you said it last night).

My memory (which could be false) is that it was called that because of a famous speech by Tam Dayell (?sp) a great Labour MP OE. He had about 3 or 4 examples of Scottish towns paired with English towns with the same initial letter that he used as a rhetorical device.

But he was the MP for West Lothian, so that was the name that stuck.

"It was actually Enoch Powell, responding to Dalyell, who said “Let us call it the West Lothian Question”, giving a name to a problem that has vexed politicians for decades (Prime Minister William Gladstone, who represented Midlothian in the 19th century, tried to address a similar issue raised by Irish Home Rule in the 1880s). "

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/09/what-west-lothian-question

Fair enough. Powell was a good orator.

But still a nasty bully. And not as smart as he thought he was.

Yup, he was a crappy politician, thanks to him and his made up stories about immigrants, nobody could raise the topic of immigration without sounding like a nasty bigot for decades.

They weren't made up, and the only reason people couldn't raise the topic was the cowardice of Edward Heath

Public support for Powell was huge, and his predictions have been proven correct

Why do we even bother with these arguments? I will defend him to the hilt and you will cherry pick quotes that allow you to exhibit self pity. Boring.

I think he was right, you think he was wrong. End of argument really, although I guess I you get a lot of comments from me and that makes you look competent in mikes absence click counter wise

Mr. Watcher, not certain but I believe it's in double figures.

isam said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Charles said:

isam said:

Charles said:

isam said:

Love the fact that "West Lothian Question" is copyright J.E.Powell

If there is a reshuffle, I assume the bet is void? Disgraceful from paddy power if not

Is it (I saw you said it last night).

My memory (which could be false) is that it was called that because of a famous speech by Tam Dayell (?sp) a great Labour MP OE. He had about 3 or 4 examples of Scottish towns paired with English towns with the same initial letter that he used as a rhetorical device.

But he was the MP for West Lothian, so that was the name that stuck.

"It was actually Enoch Powell, responding to Dalyell, who said “Let us call it the West Lothian Question”, giving a name to a problem that has vexed politicians for decades (Prime Minister William Gladstone, who represented Midlothian in the 19th century, tried to address a similar issue raised by Irish Home Rule in the 1880s). "

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/09/what-west-lothian-question

Fair enough. Powell was a good orator.

But still a nasty bully. And not as smart as he thought he was.

Yup, he was a crappy politician, thanks to him and his made up stories about immigrants, nobody could raise the topic of immigration without sounding like a nasty bigot for decades.

They weren't made up, and the only reason people couldn't raise the topic was the cowardice of Edward Heath

Public support for Powell was huge, and his predictions have been proven correct

Why do we even bother with these arguments? I will defend him to the hilt and you will cherry pick quotes that allow you to exhibit self pity. Boring.

I think he was right, you think he was wrong. End of argument really, although I guess I you get a lot of comments from me and that makes you look competent in mikes absence click counter wise

Lol, you don't understand how PB's popularity is measured or generated. Never mind. Play the man, not the ball, it's your style. (FYI - The more comments we get on PB, the more money it costs Mike, in server and Vanilla costs) PB is all about the links it generates.

As an aside, does Socrates display self pity when he criticises Enoch Powell?

CopperSulphate said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Charles said:

isam said:

Charles said:

isam said:

Love the fact that "West Lothian Question" is copyright J.E.Powell

If there is a reshuffle, I assume the bet is void? Disgraceful from paddy power if not

Is it (I saw you said it last night).

My memory (which could be false) is that it was called that because of a famous speech by Tam Dayell (?sp) a great Labour MP OE. He had about 3 or 4 examples of Scottish towns paired with English towns with the same initial letter that he used as a rhetorical device.

But he was the MP for West Lothian, so that was the name that stuck.

"It was actually Enoch Powell, responding to Dalyell, who said “Let us call it the West Lothian Question”, giving a name to a problem that has vexed politicians for decades (Prime Minister William Gladstone, who represented Midlothian in the 19th century, tried to address a similar issue raised by Irish Home Rule in the 1880s). "

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/09/what-west-lothian-question

Fair enough. Powell was a good orator.

But still a nasty bully. And not as smart as he thought he was.

Yup, he was a crappy politician, thanks to him and his made up stories about immigrants, nobody could raise the topic of immigration without sounding like a nasty bigot for decades.

It is the idiots crying racist every time immigration is brought up that made discussing it impossible not Enoch Powell.

Do you think he could have used less inflammatory language, if he had used more temperate language, it might have been better.

chestnut said:

bigjohnowls said:

In the last 7 months the Red and Blue lines have run in parallel havent they 7 months to go to GE2015

YG last 7 month averages 4,4,3,4,3,4,3,3

September currently could be either 3 or 4 (exactly 3.5 at the moment)

Indeed.

However, when Labour were on 38 the chances of the Tories being able to scale up to that were virtually non existent, and the scope to cope with a bit of slippage was significant for Labour.

Labour are now regularly on 35. The Tories can conceivably poll that and a little bit beyond, while Labour's buffer against slippage is much thinner now.

The risk to Labour is greater with a three point lead of 35-32 than it was with 38-35.

True but of course 35/35 results in Ed as PM.

Tories need at least 37 for even a minority Govt. IMO

Socrates said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Charles said:

isam said:

Charles said:

isam said:

Love the fact that "West Lothian Question" is copyright J.E.Powell

If there is a reshuffle, I assume the bet is void? Disgraceful from paddy power if not

Is it (I saw you said it last night).

My memory (which could be false) is that it was called that because of a famous speech by Tam Dayell (?sp) a great Labour MP OE. He had about 3 or 4 examples of Scottish towns paired with English towns with the same initial letter that he used as a rhetorical device.

But he was the MP for West Lothian, so that was the name that stuck.

"It was actually Enoch Powell, responding to Dalyell, who said “Let us call it the West Lothian Question”, giving a name to a problem that has vexed politicians for decades (Prime Minister William Gladstone, who represented Midlothian in the 19th century, tried to address a similar issue raised by Irish Home Rule in the 1880s). "

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/09/what-west-lothian-question

Fair enough. Powell was a good orator.

But still a nasty bully. And not as smart as he thought he was.

Yup, he was a crappy politician, thanks to him and his made up stories about immigrants, nobody could raise the topic of immigration without sounding like a nasty bigot for decades.

I do not agree with Enoch Powell's views on nationality, but it looks like his stories were not made up:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-433497/Widow-Enoch-Powells-Rivers-Blood-speech-really-did-exist.html

Thank you for that.

Interesting, one of the pieces I read at school said, he would have become PM, had he proven the lady existed.

I did like this bit from the article

Despite her claims of feeling driven out, Druscilla stayed in Brighton Place until ill-health forced her to move to sheltered accommodation.

When she died in 1978, among the bouquets at her funeral there were flowers sent by the West Indian neighbours who she once claimed made her feel like a stranger in her own street.