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Some stark front pages this Saturday morning – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited August 28 in General
imageSome stark front pages this Saturday morning – politicalbetting.com

One of the problems about the timing of the leadership contest is that less attention is being paid to the coming disaster that will be created by the sharp rise in energy prices.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • Is anyone here?
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 1,487
    No shit, Mike. But the wicked witch of the West will spend her first 3 months screwing Northern Ireland. By Christmas I think the Conservatives will be Berlin 1945....
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 1,487
    No shit, Mike. But the wicked witch of the West will spend her first 3 months screwing Northern Ireland. By Christmas I think the Conservatives will be Berlin 1945....
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 17,371
    Betfair next prime minister
    1.07 Liz Truss 93%
    15 Rishi Sunak 7%

    Next Conservative leader
    1.06 Liz Truss 94%
    15.5 Rishi Sunak 6%
  • FishingFishing Posts: 3,753

    Is anyone here?

    I'm not
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 17,371
    Priti Patel set to be exiled to the back benches as Liz Truss plots cull of big beasts
    Home Secretary fights to save her job as leadership frontrunner plans shake-up of the Cabinet

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/08/26/priti-patel-set-exiled-back-benches-liz-truss-plots-cull-big/ (£££)

    The Telegraph is also not too keen on the career prospects of Grant Shapps, Mark Spencer, Greg Clark, George Eustice, Steve Barclay, Nigel Adams, Michael Gove, Dominic Raab, Alok Sharma and Rishi Sunak.

    There is no betting on the next Home Secretary that I can see, though I've not checked everywhere.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 17,371
    Albanian migrants offered ‘TikTok Black Friday’ Channel crossing deals
    People smugglers are using the platform to advertise prices 40 per cent cheaper than ‘standard’ rates ahead of bank holiday crackdown

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/08/26/albanian-migrants-offered-tiktok-black-friday-channel-crossing/ (£££)

    The power of the free market.
  • Penddu2Penddu2 Posts: 150
    edited August 27
    Latest Sunday Times polling shows support for Welsh Independence approaching 40%
    http://redirect.viglink.com/?key=71fe2139a887ad501313cd8cce3053c5&subId=3414711&u=https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/7lxb647ksn/SundayTimes_StateOfTheUnion_220819%20%28Wales%29.pdf
    Wait till those energy bills start landing in the letter boxes...
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,233
    ANDREW NEIL: If Liz Truss becomes Prime Minister, she needs to watch out for Tory MPs, not Labour https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-11150663/ANDREW-NEIL-Liz-Truss-Prime-Minister-needs-watch-Tory-MPs-not-Labour.html
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,862
    edited August 27

    Priti Patel set to be exiled to the back benches as Liz Truss plots cull of big beasts
    Home Secretary fights to save her job as leadership frontrunner plans shake-up of the Cabinet

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/08/26/priti-patel-set-exiled-back-benches-liz-truss-plots-cull-big/ (£££)

    The Telegraph is also not too keen on the career prospects of Grant Shapps, Mark Spencer, Greg Clark, George Eustice, Steve Barclay, Nigel Adams, Michael Gove, Dominic Raab, Alok Sharma and Rishi Sunak.

    There is no betting on the next Home Secretary that I can see, though I've not checked everywhere.

    Gove and Sunak have already said they won't serve under Truss. Raab is likely to be a third as he's a close ally of both although I haven't seen him say it aloud.

    Shapps is utterly unfit to be a minister: incompetent, arrogant and dishonest, including misleading the House. So I'm surprised Truss wouldn't want him. He might make her look almost up to the job.

    Patel should have gone long ago for similar reasons (for 'misleading the House' read 'bullying her staff').

    Barclay, Sharma and Spencer are hardly 'big beasts.'

    I am surprised about Eustice, even allowing for Truss' appalling lack of judgment. I think it unlikely she will find anyone better suited to his current role where as far as I can judge he's been quietly effective, and given the shitstorm about to engulf agriculture through enormous fuel and fertiliser bills coupled to the ongoing disruption of the new trading reality it really isn't a good moment for a change there. Perhaps he just dared to tell her to her face once that she was talking nonsense.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,604
    edited August 27
    Don’t understand why the government isn’t going after those profiteering from the war. North Sea gas is a national resource.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,670
    Good morning, everyone.

    F1: Verstappen and Leclerc to start from the back due to changing parts.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,862

    Good morning, everyone.

    F1: Verstappen and Leclerc to start from the back due to changing parts.

    That sounds rather personal.
  • pingping Posts: 3,203
    edited August 27
    Jonathan said:

    Don’t understand why the government isn’t going after those profiteering from the war. North Sea gas is a national resource.

    Ideology, init?

    If we’d had better leaders, we could have been in a similar position to norway, right now;

    https://www.ft.com/content/99680a04-92a0-11de-b63b-00144feabdc0
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,670
    Mr. Doethur, definitive proof women are slower than men? :smile:

    More seriously, I did mention Perez at 23 for the win, can be hedged at 10 if you feel inclined.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,862

    Mr. Doethur, definitive proof women are slower than men? :smile:

    More seriously, I did mention Perez at 23 for the win, can be hedged at 10 if you feel inclined.

    The most interesting market will be, 'how will Ferrari cock things up in this race?'

    I'm betting they will forget to change the wheels in a pit stop.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,000
    edited August 27
    Penddu2 said:

    Latest Sunday Times polling shows support for Welsh Independence approaching 40%

    ..... amongst the English.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 17,371
    ydoethur said:

    Priti Patel set to be exiled to the back benches as Liz Truss plots cull of big beasts
    Home Secretary fights to save her job as leadership frontrunner plans shake-up of the Cabinet

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/08/26/priti-patel-set-exiled-back-benches-liz-truss-plots-cull-big/ (£££)

    The Telegraph is also not too keen on the career prospects of Grant Shapps, Mark Spencer, Greg Clark, George Eustice, Steve Barclay, Nigel Adams, Michael Gove, Dominic Raab, Alok Sharma and Rishi Sunak.

    There is no betting on the next Home Secretary that I can see, though I've not checked everywhere.

    Gove and Sunak have already said they won't serve under Truss. Raab is likely to be a third as he's a close ally of both although I haven't seen him say it aloud.

    Shapps is utterly unfit to be a minister: incompetent, arrogant and dishonest, including misleading the House. So I'm surprised Truss wouldn't want him. He might make her look almost up to the job.

    Patel should have gone long ago for similar reasons (for 'misleading the House' read 'bullying her staff').

    Barclay, Sharma and Spencer are hardly 'big beasts.'

    I am surprised about Eustice, even allowing for Truss' appalling lack of judgment. I think it unlikely she will find anyone better suited to his current role where as far as I can judge he's been quietly effective, and given the shitstorm about to engulf agriculture through enormous fuel and fertiliser bills coupled to the ongoing disruption of the new trading reality it really isn't a good moment for a change there. Perhaps he just dared to tell her to her face once that she was talking nonsense.
    It might be this is just a hack and a backbencher brainstorming in a bar somewhere. I doubt Liz Truss issued a press release. It has been rumoured Truss might, during the MPs votes horse-trading, have "promised" more jobs than are available, and this is little more than a list of ministers who have not endorsed her.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 32,048
    Jonathan said:

    Don’t understand why the government isn’t going after those profiteering from the war. North Sea gas is a national resource.

    Define 'profiteering', and name those companies.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 17,371

    ydoethur said:

    Priti Patel set to be exiled to the back benches as Liz Truss plots cull of big beasts
    Home Secretary fights to save her job as leadership frontrunner plans shake-up of the Cabinet

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/08/26/priti-patel-set-exiled-back-benches-liz-truss-plots-cull-big/ (£££)

    The Telegraph is also not too keen on the career prospects of Grant Shapps, Mark Spencer, Greg Clark, George Eustice, Steve Barclay, Nigel Adams, Michael Gove, Dominic Raab, Alok Sharma and Rishi Sunak.

    There is no betting on the next Home Secretary that I can see, though I've not checked everywhere.

    Gove and Sunak have already said they won't serve under Truss. Raab is likely to be a third as he's a close ally of both although I haven't seen him say it aloud.

    Shapps is utterly unfit to be a minister: incompetent, arrogant and dishonest, including misleading the House. So I'm surprised Truss wouldn't want him. He might make her look almost up to the job.

    Patel should have gone long ago for similar reasons (for 'misleading the House' read 'bullying her staff').

    Barclay, Sharma and Spencer are hardly 'big beasts.'

    I am surprised about Eustice, even allowing for Truss' appalling lack of judgment. I think it unlikely she will find anyone better suited to his current role where as far as I can judge he's been quietly effective, and given the shitstorm about to engulf agriculture through enormous fuel and fertiliser bills coupled to the ongoing disruption of the new trading reality it really isn't a good moment for a change there. Perhaps he just dared to tell her to her face once that she was talking nonsense.
    It might be this is just a hack and a backbencher brainstorming in a bar somewhere. I doubt Liz Truss issued a press release. It has been rumoured Truss might, during the MPs votes horse-trading, have "promised" more jobs than are available, and this is little more than a list of ministers who have not endorsed her.
    On Liz Truss over-promising jobs, Scott_xP's link in this thread to Andrew Neil gives us: "Others were seduced by a generous sprinkling of job offers (the joke in Westminster is that she already has three foreign secretaries and four chancellors)."
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-11150663/ANDREW-NEIL-Liz-Truss-Prime-Minister-needs-watch-Tory-MPs-not-Labour.html
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,862

    Jonathan said:

    Don’t understand why the government isn’t going after those profiteering from the war. North Sea gas is a national resource.

    Define 'profiteering', and name those companies.
    1) Making money out of ordinary people despite doing nothing for them;

    2) The Conservative Party.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 32,048
    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    Don’t understand why the government isn’t going after those profiteering from the war. North Sea gas is a national resource.

    Define 'profiteering', and name those companies.
    1) Making money out of ordinary people despite doing nothing for them;

    2) The Conservative Party.
    1) Making money out of ordinary people despite doing nothing for them;
    2) Teachers? (Since 'most' people have no contact with them...)

    ;)
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,862

    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    Don’t understand why the government isn’t going after those profiteering from the war. North Sea gas is a national resource.

    Define 'profiteering', and name those companies.
    1) Making money out of ordinary people despite doing nothing for them;

    2) The Conservative Party.
    1) Making money out of ordinary people despite doing nothing for them;
    2) Teachers? (Since 'most' people have no contact with them...)

    ;)
    Really? I thought it was a legal requirement in this country to attend school between the ages of 5 and 18.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 17,371

    Jonathan said:

    Don’t understand why the government isn’t going after those profiteering from the war. North Sea gas is a national resource.

    Define 'profiteering', and name those companies.
    I'd be wary of using that word but ...

    The oil and gas sector is making extraordinary profits, not as the result of recent changes to risk taking or innovation or efficiency, but as the result of surging global commodity prices, driven in part by Russia’s war.
    Rishi Sunak, Chancellor of the Exchequer, House of Commons, 26th May.

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 32,048
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    Don’t understand why the government isn’t going after those profiteering from the war. North Sea gas is a national resource.

    Define 'profiteering', and name those companies.
    1) Making money out of ordinary people despite doing nothing for them;

    2) The Conservative Party.
    1) Making money out of ordinary people despite doing nothing for them;
    2) Teachers? (Since 'most' people have no contact with them...)

    ;)
    Really? I thought it was a legal requirement in this country to attend school between the ages of 5 and 18.
    Indeed, but after that time, if you have no children in school, they're doing nothing for *you*.

    Just pointing out your jestful comment could apply elsewhere. ;)
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 32,048

    Jonathan said:

    Don’t understand why the government isn’t going after those profiteering from the war. North Sea gas is a national resource.

    Define 'profiteering', and name those companies.
    I'd be wary of using that word but ...

    The oil and gas sector is making extraordinary profits, not as the result of recent changes to risk taking or innovation or efficiency, but as the result of surging global commodity prices, driven in part by Russia’s war.
    Rishi Sunak, Chancellor of the Exchequer, House of Commons, 26th May.

    Indeed, it's the 'profiteering' word that's dodgy.

    As it happens, I'd be fine with a windfall tax on energy companies as long as it does not affect their short-term work or long-term investment. And I believe some of the proposals do not. Pension funds might not like it, though...
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 10,474
    Scott_xP said:

    If she does badly in the May election they will get rid of her. They are collectively insane, the party is on the point of meltdown.


    Johnson comes back in a 'save the furniture' move for the GE as Rudd did for Australian Labor. If they start the next leadership contest in May it should be over in time for him to go on multiple summer holidays before the election.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 48,458
    Jonathan said:

    Don’t understand why the government isn’t going after those profiteering from the war. North Sea gas is a national resource.

    (1) Damn it! Why are oil & gas companies making so much money!#

    ... something ...

    (2) Damn it! Why is oil & gas production dropping, and why are companies investing in other countries instead?
  • IcarusIcarus Posts: 766

    ydoethur said:

    Priti Patel set to be exiled to the back benches as Liz Truss plots cull of big beasts
    Home Secretary fights to save her job as leadership frontrunner plans shake-up of the Cabinet

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/08/26/priti-patel-set-exiled-back-benches-liz-truss-plots-cull-big/ (£££)

    The Telegraph is also not too keen on the career prospects of Grant Shapps, Mark Spencer, Greg Clark, George Eustice, Steve Barclay, Nigel Adams, Michael Gove, Dominic Raab, Alok Sharma and Rishi Sunak.

    There is no betting on the next Home Secretary that I can see, though I've not checked everywhere.

    Gove and Sunak have already said they won't serve under Truss. Raab is likely to be a third as he's a close ally of both although I haven't seen him say it aloud.

    Shapps is utterly unfit to be a minister: incompetent, arrogant and dishonest, including misleading the House. So I'm surprised Truss wouldn't want him. He might make her look almost up to the job.

    Patel should have gone long ago for similar reasons (for 'misleading the House' read 'bullying her staff').

    Barclay, Sharma and Spencer are hardly 'big beasts.'

    I am surprised about Eustice, even allowing for Truss' appalling lack of judgment. I think it unlikely she will find anyone better suited to his current role where as far as I can judge he's been quietly effective, and given the shitstorm about to engulf agriculture through enormous fuel and fertiliser bills coupled to the ongoing disruption of the new trading reality it really isn't a good moment for a change there. Perhaps he just dared to tell her to her face once that she was talking nonsense.
    It might be this is just a hack and a backbencher brainstorming in a bar somewhere. I doubt Liz Truss issued a press release. It has been rumoured Truss might, during the MPs votes horse-trading, have "promised" more jobs than are available, and this is little more than a list of ministers who have not endorsed her.
    On Liz Truss over-promising jobs, Scott_xP's link in this thread to Andrew Neil gives us: "Others were seduced by a generous sprinkling of job offers (the joke in Westminster is that she already has three foreign secretaries and four chancellors)."
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-11150663/ANDREW-NEIL-Liz-Truss-Prime-Minister-needs-watch-Tory-MPs-not-Labour.html
    Do we know the names of those who attended the Truss Chevening planning event? Presumably they are likely to be in line for the top jobs.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,233
    Icarus said:

    Do we know the names of those who attended the Truss Chevening planning event? Presumably they are likely to be in line for the top jobs.

    Those in attendance have seen a cast list of figures from her nascent cabinet — Kwasi Kwarteng, her putative chancellor, Thérèse Coffey, who is being mooted as her chief whip, Sir Iain Duncan-Smith and Jacob Rees-Mogg, both of whom are in line for senior roles.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,862

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    Don’t understand why the government isn’t going after those profiteering from the war. North Sea gas is a national resource.

    Define 'profiteering', and name those companies.
    1) Making money out of ordinary people despite doing nothing for them;

    2) The Conservative Party.
    1) Making money out of ordinary people despite doing nothing for them;
    2) Teachers? (Since 'most' people have no contact with them...)

    ;)
    Really? I thought it was a legal requirement in this country to attend school between the ages of 5 and 18.
    Indeed, but after that time, if you have no children in school, they're doing nothing for *you*.

    Just pointing out your jestful comment could apply elsewhere. ;)
    Then I clearly did it wrong, as I didn't make nearly enough money.
  • rcs1000 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Don’t understand why the government isn’t going after those profiteering from the war. North Sea gas is a national resource.

    (1) Damn it! Why are oil & gas companies making so much money!#

    ... something ...

    (2) Damn it! Why is oil & gas production dropping, and why are companies investing in other countries instead?
    I find it a little odd that the word "production" rather than "exploitation" is used when discussing the extraction of natural resources. No one is actually producing anything; rather, the parties involved are extracting, processing and selling a finite resource that belongs to all of us. Once it's gone, it's gone, and there's a good argument for not consuming it as rapidly as possible. It's not going anywhere if left in the ground, and it may be better to leave some for future generations. And that's before considering the whole climate change issue.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 32,048
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    Don’t understand why the government isn’t going after those profiteering from the war. North Sea gas is a national resource.

    Define 'profiteering', and name those companies.
    1) Making money out of ordinary people despite doing nothing for them;

    2) The Conservative Party.
    1) Making money out of ordinary people despite doing nothing for them;
    2) Teachers? (Since 'most' people have no contact with them...)

    ;)
    Really? I thought it was a legal requirement in this country to attend school between the ages of 5 and 18.
    Indeed, but after that time, if you have no children in school, they're doing nothing for *you*.

    Just pointing out your jestful comment could apply elsewhere. ;)
    Then I clearly did it wrong, as I didn't make nearly enough money.
    Your 'profit' was the glinting in the children's eyes as they listened to you, and understood. ;)
  • boulayboulay Posts: 1,819
    @Leon I see your recent trip to Rome was busy.


  • theProletheProle Posts: 697
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    Don’t understand why the government isn’t going after those profiteering from the war. North Sea gas is a national resource.

    Define 'profiteering', and name those companies.
    1) Making money out of ordinary people despite doing nothing for them;

    2) The Conservative Party.
    1) Making money out of ordinary people despite doing nothing for them;
    2) Teachers? (Since 'most' people have no contact with them...)

    ;)
    Really? I thought it was a legal requirement in this country to attend school between the ages of 5 and 18.
    It's not. Parents are free to not send their children to school. They must provide an education of some sort (and some LEAs will send inspectors to check up on this), but they can provide it themselves, or subcontract it to private tutors.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 4,933
    edited August 27

    Jonathan said:

    Don’t understand why the government isn’t going after those profiteering from the war. North Sea gas is a national resource.

    Define 'profiteering', and name those companies.
    Some will be making outsized profits but many of the extractors had heavily hedged their production for 2022 and won’t see big profits until 2023. They’re also sitting on accumulated tax losses from the pandemic. Bp (and to a lesser extent Shell) made a $25 billion dollar write down of Russian assets in support of British foreign policy, prior to sanctions even being announced. So where’s the profiteering there?

    Their reporting is also sufficiently opaque that it’s hard to determine a proper breakdown of how their underlying profit has been generated. I know Robert disagrees but I am correct that to a large degree ytd profits have been been from global trading activities (often on foreign balance sheets).

    Meanwhile the unpredictability of the uk tax regime for extractors harms investment:
    https://www.ft.com/content/1ae8c2fc-6e9b-40f8-ad13-84451828004c

    It makes marginal opportunities not worth pursuing. This goes for the big (like Harbour) to the very smallest, who are looking at single infill wells of end of life assets. This in turns harms our long term energy security. A rot that set in with that chimpanzee George Osborne, who understood so little about the way of the world. But it was continued with reckless enthusiasm by Sunak, who stakes a claim to outshining Gordon Brown in worst chancellor stakes.



  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 15,922
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    Don’t understand why the government isn’t going after those profiteering from the war. North Sea gas is a national resource.

    Define 'profiteering', and name those companies.
    1) Making money out of ordinary people despite doing nothing for them;

    2) The Conservative Party.
    1) Making money out of ordinary people despite doing nothing for them;
    2) Teachers? (Since 'most' people have no contact with them...)

    ;)
    Really? I thought it was a legal requirement in this country to attend school between the ages of 5 and 18.
    Indeed, but after that time, if you have no children in school, they're doing nothing for *you*.

    Just pointing out your jestful comment could apply elsewhere. ;)
    Then I clearly did it wrong, as I didn't make nearly enough money.
    The holidays though......
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 15,922
    Scott_xP said:

    ANDREW NEIL: If Liz Truss becomes Prime Minister, she needs to watch out for Tory MPs, not Labour https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-11150663/ANDREW-NEIL-Liz-Truss-Prime-Minister-needs-watch-Tory-MPs-not-Labour.html

    Has there ever been a new PM with less core support? How many MPs truly believe in and support her?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 18,493
    Dura_Ace said:

    Scott_xP said:

    If she does badly in the May election they will get rid of her. They are collectively insane, the party is on the point of meltdown.


    Johnson comes back in a 'save the furniture' move for the GE as Rudd did for Australian Labor. If they start the next leadership contest in May it should be over in time for him to go on multiple summer holidays before the election.
    He will return after the chaos of Truss to a rapturous round of applause. Every Thursday until the GE we can "clap for Boris". And despite our penury, our collective gratitude will reward Johnson with a thumping majority at the next GE. As a nation we are as mad as the Conservative leadership client voters.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,862
    theProle said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    Don’t understand why the government isn’t going after those profiteering from the war. North Sea gas is a national resource.

    Define 'profiteering', and name those companies.
    1) Making money out of ordinary people despite doing nothing for them;

    2) The Conservative Party.
    1) Making money out of ordinary people despite doing nothing for them;
    2) Teachers? (Since 'most' people have no contact with them...)

    ;)
    Really? I thought it was a legal requirement in this country to attend school between the ages of 5 and 18.
    It's not. Parents are free to not send their children to school. They must provide an education of some sort (and some LEAs will send inspectors to check up on this), but they can provide it themselves, or subcontract it to private tutors.
    Ok, fair point. Actually, OFSTED themselves inspect home schools now as well which led to a farcical chain of events in one place where the parent repeatedly refused to let them in so they kept describing the education as 'inadequate.'
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 48,458
    ping said:

    Jonathan said:

    Don’t understand why the government isn’t going after those profiteering from the war. North Sea gas is a national resource.

    Ideology, init?

    If we’d had better leaders, we could have been in a similar position to norway, right now;

    https://www.ft.com/content/99680a04-92a0-11de-b63b-00144feabdc0
    Norway has a lot more reserves per head of population than the UK. It also has very plentiful hydroelectric power.

    With that said... There's no doubt that they did a much better job than we did in terms of a sensible, long term oil & gas taxation framework.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 18,493
    Penddu2 said:

    Latest Sunday Times polling shows support for Welsh Independence approaching 40%
    http://redirect.viglink.com/?key=71fe2139a887ad501313cd8cce3053c5&subId=3414711&u=https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/7lxb647ksn/SundayTimes_StateOfTheUnion_220819%20%28Wales%29.pdf
    Wait till those energy bills start landing in the letter boxes...

    We are not an independently minded nation but an Independent Scotland will add to the notion that we would like some of that.

    I am not sure what the attraction of a well stocked backwater on the left hand side of Conservative England, both geographically and politically has to the English Nationalists. Other than piping our water along the Boris Johnson Canal to London I suspect Wales serves little purpose to them.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 31,970
    Penddu2 said:

    Latest Sunday Times polling shows support for Welsh Independence approaching 40%
    http://redirect.viglink.com/?key=71fe2139a887ad501313cd8cce3053c5&subId=3414711&u=https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/7lxb647ksn/SundayTimes_StateOfTheUnion_220819%20%28Wales%29.pdf
    Wait till those energy bills start landing in the letter boxes...

    That looks more like 31% to me.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,912

    Good morning, everyone.

    F1: Verstappen and Leclerc to start from the back due to changing parts.

    Most likely they actually start 14th and 15th, as there’s six cars with the same penalties who will qualify against each other to avoid starting last. Verstappen and Leclerc to finish on the podium, isn’t the most outlandish of bets.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 8,472
    edited August 27

    Scott_xP said:

    ANDREW NEIL: If Liz Truss becomes Prime Minister, she needs to watch out for Tory MPs, not Labour https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-11150663/ANDREW-NEIL-Liz-Truss-Prime-Minister-needs-watch-Tory-MPs-not-Labour.html

    Has there ever been a new PM with less core support? How many MPs truly believe in and support her?
    Major didn't have much real support, and I suspect there were a lot of misgivings about Brown too.

    (Edit: So along with Truss replacing a PM who once did have very strong support)
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,670
    Mr. Sandpit, do you mean as two separate bets for Verstappen/Leclerc to be on the podium or a multiple?

    Given reliability and such (and I need to check the weather) I'm a little wary of a dual bet.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    There is no knowing the damage that might be inflicted if the Government instead leans on the demand-destruction of much higher interest rates to do the donkey.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/08/27/new-pm-faces-right-old-pickle-who-could-have-seen-coming/
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 4,933
    Omnium said:

    Scott_xP said:

    ANDREW NEIL: If Liz Truss becomes Prime Minister, she needs to watch out for Tory MPs, not Labour https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-11150663/ANDREW-NEIL-Liz-Truss-Prime-Minister-needs-watch-Tory-MPs-not-Labour.html

    Has there ever been a new PM with less core support? How many MPs truly believe in and support her?
    Major didn't have much real support, and I suspect there were a lot of misgivings about Brown too.

    (Edit: So along with Truss replacing a PM who once did have very strong support)
    Churchill in 1940!
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 31,970
    ydoethur said:

    Priti Patel set to be exiled to the back benches as Liz Truss plots cull of big beasts
    Home Secretary fights to save her job as leadership frontrunner plans shake-up of the Cabinet

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/08/26/priti-patel-set-exiled-back-benches-liz-truss-plots-cull-big/ (£££)

    The Telegraph is also not too keen on the career prospects of Grant Shapps, Mark Spencer, Greg Clark, George Eustice, Steve Barclay, Nigel Adams, Michael Gove, Dominic Raab, Alok Sharma and Rishi Sunak.

    There is no betting on the next Home Secretary that I can see, though I've not checked everywhere.

    Gove and Sunak have already said they won't serve under Truss. Raab is likely to be a third as he's a close ally of both although I haven't seen him say it aloud.

    Shapps is utterly unfit to be a minister: incompetent, arrogant and dishonest, including misleading the House. So I'm surprised Truss wouldn't want him. He might make her look almost up to the job.

    Patel should have gone long ago for similar reasons (for 'misleading the House' read 'bullying her staff').

    Barclay, Sharma and Spencer are hardly 'big beasts.'

    I am surprised about Eustice, even allowing for Truss' appalling lack of judgment. I think it unlikely she will find anyone better suited to his current role where as far as I can judge he's been quietly effective, and given the shitstorm about to engulf agriculture through enormous fuel and fertiliser bills coupled to the ongoing disruption of the new trading reality it really isn't a good moment for a change there. Perhaps he just dared to tell her to her face once that she was talking nonsense.
    JRM ought to be among those culled. He's a poor man's idea of what an aristocrat is (assuming the poor man has never met any aristocrats).
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,912

    Mr. Sandpit, do you mean as two separate bets for Verstappen/Leclerc to be on the podium or a multiple?

    Given reliability and such (and I need to check the weather) I'm a little wary of a dual bet.

    Half of me was thinking of them both making it, but would need to be good odds. They should both be about 2/1 ish, individually.

    The other random factor in Belgium, is that the circuit has its own little private weather system, and it always rains at some point during the day.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 37,395
    edited August 27
    Scott_xP said:

    ANDREW NEIL: If Liz Truss becomes Prime Minister, she needs to watch out for Tory MPs, not Labour https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-11150663/ANDREW-NEIL-Liz-Truss-Prime-Minister-needs-watch-Tory-MPs-not-Labour.html

    Deleted

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,912
    Scott_xP said:
    Are the ‘Sunakites’ really going to turn into the next incarnation of the Remoaners, determined to bring about a Labour government at the earliest opportunity?
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 15,922
    Omnium said:

    Scott_xP said:

    ANDREW NEIL: If Liz Truss becomes Prime Minister, she needs to watch out for Tory MPs, not Labour https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-11150663/ANDREW-NEIL-Liz-Truss-Prime-Minister-needs-watch-Tory-MPs-not-Labour.html

    Has there ever been a new PM with less core support? How many MPs truly believe in and support her?
    Major didn't have much real support, and I suspect there were a lot of misgivings about Brown too.

    (Edit: So along with Truss replacing a PM who once did have very strong support)
    Brown was perhaps disliked on a personal level by a proportion of Labour MPs and others thought he might be electorally unpopular, but he basically stood for what the vast majority of the Labour MP group did at the time. He broadly had support even if not a fan club.

    Major is perhaps the closest, but again it was more of a lack of a fan club as opposed to his own party thinking he was likely to fail and/or did not stand for their views.

    With Truss I think at least a third of the Tory MPs think she is likely to fail and/or does not stand for their views and values. She has a big majority but it is made of straw.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 37,395
    Sandpit said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Are the ‘Sunakites’ really going to turn into the next incarnation of the Remoaners, determined to bring about a Labour government at the earliest opportunity?
    Voters are perfectly capable of making their own judgements.

  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 8,368
    Sandpit said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Are the ‘Sunakites’ really going to turn into the next incarnation of the Remoaners, determined to bring about a Labour government at the earliest opportunity?
    How can anyone, however blinkered, can look at the current situation and figure that another party, nearly any party, could be doing worse is beyond me. What exactly is the Tory party’s USP at the moment and how is it better?

  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 18,493
    edited August 27
    Off topic

    @ydoethur. On my way back from working in Worcester yesterday I swung by Bentley's fruit farm, so took the opportunity to check out @Leon 's regular travelog reports regarding Newent. I noted the little Ford dealership where I once filled up with petrol is no more, but the town is blessed with a range of thriving independent shops. Whilst it is not down at heel like many Forest of Dean towns it was a little tired, much like nearby Ledbury and Great Malvern (contrasting with Ross which is buzzing with enterprise and enthusiasm).

    Newent was a pleasant enough experience except for the young man who staggered out of the social club (opposite the Red Lion) at 4.30 jangling his car keys, and much to my wife's alarm stuck his head through the open passenger window of my beige estate car and asked "is this a rally car?" before meandering off to find his car (or tractor) for what I suspect would have been a white knuckle ride home.

    Oh and who is the much celebrated little pony?
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 15,922

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Are the ‘Sunakites’ really going to turn into the next incarnation of the Remoaners, determined to bring about a Labour government at the earliest opportunity?
    Voters are perfectly capable of making their own judgements.

    And Truss can choose to include the "Sunakites" or go for the JRM and IDS types. She is the boss, she will have responsibility for making it work, not Sunak (or Starmer for when BigG wakes up).
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 8,368

    Scott_xP said:

    ANDREW NEIL: If Liz Truss becomes Prime Minister, she needs to watch out for Tory MPs, not Labour https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-11150663/ANDREW-NEIL-Liz-Truss-Prime-Minister-needs-watch-Tory-MPs-not-Labour.html

    Deleted

    I think that’s still the name of the building the Bundestag sits in.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 15,922
    edited August 27
    DougSeal said:

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Are the ‘Sunakites’ really going to turn into the next incarnation of the Remoaners, determined to bring about a Labour government at the earliest opportunity?
    How can anyone, however blinkered, can look at the current situation and figure that another party, nearly any party, could be doing worse is beyond me. What exactly is the Tory party’s USP at the moment and how is it better?

    Gerontocracy. Better for share of the cake going to the client vote.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 18,493
    edited August 27
    Sean_F said:

    Penddu2 said:

    Latest Sunday Times polling shows support for Welsh Independence approaching 40%
    http://redirect.viglink.com/?key=71fe2139a887ad501313cd8cce3053c5&subId=3414711&u=https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/7lxb647ksn/SundayTimes_StateOfTheUnion_220819%20%28Wales%29.pdf
    Wait till those energy bills start landing in the letter boxes...

    That looks more like 31% to me.
    As a nation of sheep worriers we only round up in Wales.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 8,368
    FP spoke with a half-dozen experts to ask where the war in Ukraine is headed. Answers varied—from a complete Russian military collapse to a nuclear strike to a frozen conflict along the lines of nearby Georgia.

    https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/08/25/zelensky-putin-russia-ukraine-war/
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 8,472

    Omnium said:

    Scott_xP said:

    ANDREW NEIL: If Liz Truss becomes Prime Minister, she needs to watch out for Tory MPs, not Labour https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-11150663/ANDREW-NEIL-Liz-Truss-Prime-Minister-needs-watch-Tory-MPs-not-Labour.html

    Has there ever been a new PM with less core support? How many MPs truly believe in and support her?
    Major didn't have much real support, and I suspect there were a lot of misgivings about Brown too.

    (Edit: So along with Truss replacing a PM who once did have very strong support)
    Brown was perhaps disliked on a personal level by a proportion of Labour MPs and others thought he might be electorally unpopular, but he basically stood for what the vast majority of the Labour MP group did at the time. He broadly had support even if not a fan club.

    Major is perhaps the closest, but again it was more of a lack of a fan club as opposed to his own party thinking he was likely to fail and/or did not stand for their views.

    With Truss I think at least a third of the Tory MPs think she is likely to fail and/or does not stand for their views and values. She has a big majority but it is made of straw.
    I don't think Truss is too far astray in her views, it's more that she worries people in what her delivery might be.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,461

    Mr. Doethur, definitive proof women are slower than men? :smile:

    More seriously, I did mention Perez at 23 for the win, can be hedged at 10 if you feel inclined.

    What are Sainz’s odds?
    I think he’s a better driver than Perez, Ferrari look close to RB, and Sainz has the nous to resist Ferrari’s more stupid strategy calls (see Monaco and Silverstone).
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 7,879
    Sandpit said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Are the ‘Sunakites’ really going to turn into the next incarnation of the Remoaners, determined to bring about a Labour government at the earliest opportunity?
    Naaah, Truss's approach to government (if it does become a libertarian right clique) will do that by itself.

    There's a genuine dilemma, though. In British politics, you pick a side fairly early in the process. But those sides are big and can change a lot year-to-year. What do you do if your side goes off on one, and the Otherlot Party better reflects your vision of how the country should be run?
    Think of Labour moderates under Corbyn. Sane Republicans under Trump. Conservatives who believe in objective reality under Johnson.

    There isn't an easy answer. Leaving your old party and creating a new one hardly ever works. Staying and fighting makes you (at least a bit) culpable for what your party does whilst it's on its bender.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 8,368
    edited August 27
    I’m going to what is, remarkably, my first ever Premier League game today. Ipswich’s last tenure in the top flight coincided with Saturdays devoted to the, ahem, “height”, of my rugby “career”, so for the last thirty years I’ve only been to FL and Cup games. I hope that the fairy dust will sprinkle and I’ll see what I’ve been missing.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,328
    ping said:

    Jonathan said:

    Don’t understand why the government isn’t going after those profiteering from the war. North Sea gas is a national resource.

    Ideology, init?

    If we’d had better leaders, we could have been in a similar position to norway, right now;

    https://www.ft.com/content/99680a04-92a0-11de-b63b-00144feabdc0
    Even at current prices most of the remaining North Sea production is pretty marginal. If we want to encourage the oil companies to invest more there to squeeze out the last bits of some pretty depleted fields some sort of windfall tax is really not the way to do it. Windfall taxes are generally a very bad idea but it is obvious that imposing something of that sort now would be to shoot ourselves in both feet, reducing production and increasing imports.

    So it will probably be announced next week.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,297
    ydoethur said:

    Priti Patel set to be exiled to the back benches as Liz Truss plots cull of big beasts
    Home Secretary fights to save her job as leadership frontrunner plans shake-up of the Cabinet

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/08/26/priti-patel-set-exiled-back-benches-liz-truss-plots-cull-big/ (£££)

    The Telegraph is also not too keen on the career prospects of Grant Shapps, Mark Spencer, Greg Clark, George Eustice, Steve Barclay, Nigel Adams, Michael Gove, Dominic Raab, Alok Sharma and Rishi Sunak.

    There is no betting on the next Home Secretary that I can see, though I've not checked everywhere.

    Gove and Sunak have already said they won't serve under Truss. Raab is likely to be a third as he's a close ally of both although I haven't seen him say it aloud.

    Shapps is utterly unfit to be a minister: incompetent, arrogant and dishonest, including misleading the House. So I'm surprised Truss wouldn't want him. He might make her look almost up to the job…
    Indeed. All of what you say is true, but he’s probably one of the better ones.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 18,493
    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Priti Patel set to be exiled to the back benches as Liz Truss plots cull of big beasts
    Home Secretary fights to save her job as leadership frontrunner plans shake-up of the Cabinet

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/08/26/priti-patel-set-exiled-back-benches-liz-truss-plots-cull-big/ (£££)

    The Telegraph is also not too keen on the career prospects of Grant Shapps, Mark Spencer, Greg Clark, George Eustice, Steve Barclay, Nigel Adams, Michael Gove, Dominic Raab, Alok Sharma and Rishi Sunak.

    There is no betting on the next Home Secretary that I can see, though I've not checked everywhere.

    Gove and Sunak have already said they won't serve under Truss. Raab is likely to be a third as he's a close ally of both although I haven't seen him say it aloud.

    Shapps is utterly unfit to be a minister: incompetent, arrogant and dishonest, including misleading the House. So I'm surprised Truss wouldn't want him. He might make her look almost up to the job…
    Indeed. All of what you say is true, but he’s probably one of the better ones.
    Suella DeVil as Home Secretary is going to make Priti Patel look like R A Butler.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,633
    edited August 27
    DougSeal said:

    I’m going to what is, remarkably, my first ever Premier League game today. Ipswich’s last tenure in the top flight coincided with Saturdays devoted to the, ahem, “height”, of my rugby “career”, so for the last thirty years I’ve only been to FL and Cup games. I hope that the fairy dust will sprinkle and I’ll see what I’ve been missing.

    Who are you seeing? Chelsea vs Leicester will not be a pretty sight!
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,245
    Penddu2 said:

    Latest Sunday Times polling shows support for Welsh Independence approaching 40%
    http://redirect.viglink.com/?key=71fe2139a887ad501313cd8cce3053c5&subId=3414711&u=https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/7lxb647ksn/SundayTimes_StateOfTheUnion_220819%20%28Wales%29.pdf
    Wait till those energy bills start landing in the letter boxes...

    Outstandingly good news!
    Absolutely delighted to see the Welsh waking up.

    I know it’s only a subsamples, and the usual caveats apply in droves, but is this a straw in the wind?

    Wales:

    Plaid Cymru 27%
    Labour 27%
    Conservatives 17%
    Welsh Greens 15%
    WLD 9%
    UKIP 4%
    Ref 1%

    (Deltapoll; Fieldwork: 19th - 22nd August 2022)
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,670
    Mr. Cooke, Sainz could be a good bet. Only 4, though.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 8,368
    Foxy said:

    DougSeal said:

    I’m going to what is, remarkably, my first ever Premier League game today. Ipswich’s last tenure in the top flight coincided with Saturdays devoted to the, ahem, “height”, of my rugby “career”, so for the last thirty years I’ve only been to FL and Cup games. I hope that the fairy dust will sprinkle and I’ll see what I’ve been missing.

    Who are you seeing? Chelsea vs Leicester will not be a pretty sight!
    Not far away - Brentford v Everton
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,245

    Penddu2 said:

    Latest Sunday Times polling shows support for Welsh Independence approaching 40%

    ..... amongst the English.
    England would get on a lot better if her voters were pro-English rather than anti-everybody-else.

    British Nationalism is damaging all the members of the Union.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,604
    It’s entirely fair to call organisations profiting from the war as war profiteers.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,099
    Sean_F said:

    ydoethur said:

    Priti Patel set to be exiled to the back benches as Liz Truss plots cull of big beasts
    Home Secretary fights to save her job as leadership frontrunner plans shake-up of the Cabinet

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/08/26/priti-patel-set-exiled-back-benches-liz-truss-plots-cull-big/ (£££)

    The Telegraph is also not too keen on the career prospects of Grant Shapps, Mark Spencer, Greg Clark, George Eustice, Steve Barclay, Nigel Adams, Michael Gove, Dominic Raab, Alok Sharma and Rishi Sunak.

    There is no betting on the next Home Secretary that I can see, though I've not checked everywhere.

    Gove and Sunak have already said they won't serve under Truss. Raab is likely to be a third as he's a close ally of both although I haven't seen him say it aloud.

    Shapps is utterly unfit to be a minister: incompetent, arrogant and dishonest, including misleading the House. So I'm surprised Truss wouldn't want him. He might make her look almost up to the job.

    Patel should have gone long ago for similar reasons (for 'misleading the House' read 'bullying her staff').

    Barclay, Sharma and Spencer are hardly 'big beasts.'

    I am surprised about Eustice, even allowing for Truss' appalling lack of judgment. I think it unlikely she will find anyone better suited to his current role where as far as I can judge he's been quietly effective, and given the shitstorm about to engulf agriculture through enormous fuel and fertiliser bills coupled to the ongoing disruption of the new trading reality it really isn't a good moment for a change there. Perhaps he just dared to tell her to her face once that she was talking nonsense.
    JRM ought to be among those culled. He's a poor man's idea of what an aristocrat is (assuming the poor man has never met any aristocrats).
    Comes of reading the Beano, obvs.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 18,493

    Penddu2 said:

    Latest Sunday Times polling shows support for Welsh Independence approaching 40%

    ..... amongst the English.
    England would get on a lot better if her voters were pro-English rather than anti-everybody-else.

    British Nationalism is damaging all the members of the Union.
    It's English Nationalism encompassing Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. There's no "British" about it.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,099

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    Don’t understand why the government isn’t going after those profiteering from the war. North Sea gas is a national resource.

    Define 'profiteering', and name those companies.
    1) Making money out of ordinary people despite doing nothing for them;

    2) The Conservative Party.
    1) Making money out of ordinary people despite doing nothing for them;
    2) Teachers? (Since 'most' people have no contact with them...)

    ;)
    Really? I thought it was a legal requirement in this country to attend school between the ages of 5 and 18.
    Indeed, but after that time, if you have no children in school, they're doing nothing for *you*.

    Just pointing out your jestful comment could apply elsewhere. ;)
    That logic applies much more forcefully to dentists, for example. Or engineers.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 8,368

    Penddu2 said:

    Latest Sunday Times polling shows support for Welsh Independence approaching 40%

    ..... amongst the English.
    England would get on a lot better if her voters were pro-English rather than anti-everybody-else.

    British Nationalism is damaging all the members of the Union.
    Says the man who is anti-English above pro anything else. Good to see Gothenburg and PB’s resident hater of all things English up and at em this morning nevertheless.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,633
    DougSeal said:

    Foxy said:

    DougSeal said:

    I’m going to what is, remarkably, my first ever Premier League game today. Ipswich’s last tenure in the top flight coincided with Saturdays devoted to the, ahem, “height”, of my rugby “career”, so for the last thirty years I’ve only been to FL and Cup games. I hope that the fairy dust will sprinkle and I’ll see what I’ve been missing.

    Who are you seeing? Chelsea vs Leicester will not be a pretty sight!
    Not far away - Brentford v Everton
    I would fancy Bretford there.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,322
    DavidL said:

    ping said:

    Jonathan said:

    Don’t understand why the government isn’t going after those profiteering from the war. North Sea gas is a national resource.

    Ideology, init?

    If we’d had better leaders, we could have been in a similar position to norway, right now;

    https://www.ft.com/content/99680a04-92a0-11de-b63b-00144feabdc0
    Even at current prices most of the remaining North Sea production is pretty marginal. If we want to encourage the oil companies to invest more there to squeeze out the last bits of some pretty depleted fields some sort of windfall tax is really not the way to do it. Windfall taxes are generally a very bad idea but it is obvious that imposing something of that sort now would be to shoot ourselves in both feet, reducing production and increasing imports.

    So it will probably be announced next week.
    It would play better in the country if the so-called "Price cap" was applied to the energy companies as a "profit cap" limiting their profits with the excess being used to discount energy prices.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,099

    Penddu2 said:

    Latest Sunday Times polling shows support for Welsh Independence approaching 40%
    http://redirect.viglink.com/?key=71fe2139a887ad501313cd8cce3053c5&subId=3414711&u=https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/7lxb647ksn/SundayTimes_StateOfTheUnion_220819%20%28Wales%29.pdf
    Wait till those energy bills start landing in the letter boxes...

    Outstandingly good news!
    Absolutely delighted to see the Welsh waking up.

    I know it’s only a subsamples, and the usual caveats apply in droves, but is this a straw in the wind?

    Wales:

    Plaid Cymru 27%
    Labour 27%
    Conservatives 17%
    Welsh Greens 15%
    WLD 9%
    UKIP 4%
    Ref 1%

    (Deltapoll; Fieldwork: 19th - 22nd August 2022)
    I hadn't realised that the LDs are behind the Greens in Wales as well as Scotland, if that poll is representative (which as you say it might not).
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 35,354
    Sean_F said:

    Penddu2 said:

    Latest Sunday Times polling shows support for Welsh Independence approaching 40%
    http://redirect.viglink.com/?key=71fe2139a887ad501313cd8cce3053c5&subId=3414711&u=https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/7lxb647ksn/SundayTimes_StateOfTheUnion_220819%20%28Wales%29.pdf
    Wait till those energy bills start landing in the letter boxes...

    That looks more like 31% to me.
    Based on excluding DKs & would not votes I presume.

    Strong figures on whether the Welsh expect Scotland to leave the UK and become an independent country within the next ten years.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,604
    I am offended by the chancellor asking people to tighten their belts because there is a war. Normally when that happens it’s to support troops or a general war effort.

    Right now , we need to tighten our belts to enable fat cats to get fatter in a broken energy market.

    If it’s a war, free markets cannot function properly, so you nationalise key resources.

    I suspect the current lot don’t want to do that because someone is getting mind boggingly rich.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,099
    Jonathan said:

    It’s entirely fair to call organisations profiting from the war as war profiteers.

    https://artuk.org/discover/artworks/war-profiteers-58731

    TBF, given the representation of such companies in pension funds, I'm not sure that the image of profiteers in the Great War is entirely applicable today.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 18,493
    DougSeal said:

    Penddu2 said:

    Latest Sunday Times polling shows support for Welsh Independence approaching 40%

    ..... amongst the English.
    England would get on a lot better if her voters were pro-English rather than anti-everybody-else.

    British Nationalism is damaging all the members of the Union.
    Says the man who is anti-English above pro anything else. Good to see Gothenburg and PB’s resident hater of all things English up and at em this morning nevertheless.
    But the current crop of Uber English Nationalists like Johnson and Truss feed Stuart and Malcolm's hatred of the English. I don't like English Nationalists either, and I am pro the Union.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 8,368
    Foxy said:

    DougSeal said:

    Foxy said:

    DougSeal said:

    I’m going to what is, remarkably, my first ever Premier League game today. Ipswich’s last tenure in the top flight coincided with Saturdays devoted to the, ahem, “height”, of my rugby “career”, so for the last thirty years I’ve only been to FL and Cup games. I hope that the fairy dust will sprinkle and I’ll see what I’ve been missing.

    Who are you seeing? Chelsea vs Leicester will not be a pretty sight!
    Not far away - Brentford v Everton
    I would fancy Bretford there.
    Me too. I got the tickets from work and am taking my brother who’s a Toffees fan though.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,670
    Mrs C, as I noted a week or two ago, during the 8th century or so Constantinople heavily regulated (dictated, in fact) acceptable profit margins for various professions.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 4,933
    DougSeal said:

    FP spoke with a half-dozen experts to ask where the war in Ukraine is headed. Answers varied—from a complete Russian military collapse to a nuclear strike to a frozen conflict along the lines of nearby Georgia.

    https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/08/25/zelensky-putin-russia-ukraine-war/

    A bizarre mix of views there. It seems clear what Ukraine’s strategy is. Use its advantage in long range precision weapons to degrade Russian logistics and command & control, with concentrations of armour and troops if the opportunity presents. “Death by 1000 bee stings”. In the meantime focus not just on building up the complexity of arms and numbers of troops but the capability of those troops, with many thousands undergoing training from Western nations. Rather than a Blitzkrieg on Kherson, it’s instead going to be a gradual forced retreat, as we saw in the north of the country. And from Kherson, Crimea.

    Meanwhile Russia’s only play seems to be to find cannon fodder wherever it can. Retired soldier associations, prisons, Syria, North Korea even! They’re not giving much by way of training. And the complexity of arms is getting worse not better. The occasional advance into a village in Donbas is being achieved by indiscriminate flattening of the territory using heavy artillery and then moving into a narrow salient. It’s not a recipe for strategic success, especially when there’s a time limit to the game, by how many shells (and barrels) you have in storage to play with.

    As for the economic war, it’s true that oil sanctions have largely failed. But prices are coming down which will hurt Russian earning power. And gas to Europe has now gone for ever, no one will ever trust Russian supply again except at the margins. So it’s a one time poison pill for Europe that has already been swallowed. The only thing really that matters is whether the White House is lived in by someone who wants to keep the military aid going.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 18,493
    Carnyx said:

    Penddu2 said:

    Latest Sunday Times polling shows support for Welsh Independence approaching 40%
    http://redirect.viglink.com/?key=71fe2139a887ad501313cd8cce3053c5&subId=3414711&u=https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/7lxb647ksn/SundayTimes_StateOfTheUnion_220819%20%28Wales%29.pdf
    Wait till those energy bills start landing in the letter boxes...

    Outstandingly good news!
    Absolutely delighted to see the Welsh waking up.

    I know it’s only a subsamples, and the usual caveats apply in droves, but is this a straw in the wind?

    Wales:

    Plaid Cymru 27%
    Labour 27%
    Conservatives 17%
    Welsh Greens 15%
    WLD 9%
    UKIP 4%
    Ref 1%

    (Deltapoll; Fieldwork: 19th - 22nd August 2022)
    I hadn't realised that the LDs are behind the Greens in Wales as well as Scotland, if that poll is representative (which as you say it might not).
    It's not.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 32,048
    Jonathan said:

    I am offended by the chancellor asking people to tighten their belts because there is a war. Normally when that happens it’s to support troops or a general war effort.

    Right now , we need to tighten our belts to enable fat cats to get fatter in a broken energy market.

    If it’s a war, free markets cannot function properly, so you nationalise key resources.

    I suspect the current lot don’t want to do that because someone is getting mind boggingly rich.

    So much bs in one comment. ;)

    "There's a problem, so I'll blame my usual suspects for the problem, and use my usual 'solutions' for it."
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,328

    DavidL said:

    ping said:

    Jonathan said:

    Don’t understand why the government isn’t going after those profiteering from the war. North Sea gas is a national resource.

    Ideology, init?

    If we’d had better leaders, we could have been in a similar position to norway, right now;

    https://www.ft.com/content/99680a04-92a0-11de-b63b-00144feabdc0
    Even at current prices most of the remaining North Sea production is pretty marginal. If we want to encourage the oil companies to invest more there to squeeze out the last bits of some pretty depleted fields some sort of windfall tax is really not the way to do it. Windfall taxes are generally a very bad idea but it is obvious that imposing something of that sort now would be to shoot ourselves in both feet, reducing production and increasing imports.

    So it will probably be announced next week.
    It would play better in the country if the so-called "Price cap" was applied to the energy companies as a "profit cap" limiting their profits with the excess being used to discount energy prices.
    And how does that incentivise production? Domestic energy production has not been prioritised nearly enough after the catastrophic Ed Miliband period. It is a drain on our balance of payments and reduces the money available for domestic policy including financial support for energy prices.

    Eventually we may have enough wind and solar to cover us most of the time but right now more than 40% of our power is coming from gas and most of it is imported. We need to do what we can to reduce that.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 8,368

    DougSeal said:

    Penddu2 said:

    Latest Sunday Times polling shows support for Welsh Independence approaching 40%

    ..... amongst the English.
    England would get on a lot better if her voters were pro-English rather than anti-everybody-else.

    British Nationalism is damaging all the members of the Union.
    Says the man who is anti-English above pro anything else. Good to see Gothenburg and PB’s resident hater of all things English up and at em this morning nevertheless.
    But the current crop of Uber English Nationalists like Johnson and Truss feed Stuart and Malcolm's hatred of the English. I don't like English Nationalists either, and I am pro the Union.
    What happened to Malc? He posted on 4 July that I was the most hated man ever and vanished. Hope he’s okay.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,099

    Mrs C, as I noted a week or two ago, during the 8th century or so Constantinople heavily regulated (dictated, in fact) acceptable profit margins for various professions.

    There was such a thing as excess profits tax in the Great War in the UK, though I don't know the details of how it applied.

    It's also a matter of swings and roundabouts - farmers had some very lean times while the libertarian free market ruled, in between the war booms (Revolutionary/Napoleonic, Gt War, WW2).

    I've read, in contrast, of one Quaker firm which accepted Government orders of clothing etc for the Army in the Crimean War, for humanitarian reasons, but put every penny of the profit towards a community centre for the town.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 8,368
    moonshine said:

    DougSeal said:

    FP spoke with a half-dozen experts to ask where the war in Ukraine is headed. Answers varied—from a complete Russian military collapse to a nuclear strike to a frozen conflict along the lines of nearby Georgia.

    https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/08/25/zelensky-putin-russia-ukraine-war/

    A bizarre mix of views there. It seems clear what Ukraine’s strategy is. Use its advantage in long range precision weapons to degrade Russian logistics and command & control, with concentrations of armour and troops if the opportunity presents. “Death by 1000 bee stings”. In the meantime focus not just on building up the complexity of arms and numbers of troops but the capability of those troops, with many thousands undergoing training from Western nations. Rather than a Blitzkrieg on Kherson, it’s instead going to be a gradual forced retreat, as we saw in the north of the country. And from Kherson, Crimea.

    Meanwhile Russia’s only play seems to be to find cannon fodder wherever it can. Retired soldier associations, prisons, Syria, North Korea even! They’re not giving much by way of training. And the complexity of arms is getting worse not better. The occasional advance into a village in Donbas is being achieved by indiscriminate flattening of the territory using heavy artillery and then moving into a narrow salient. It’s not a recipe for strategic success, especially when there’s a time limit to the game, by how many shells (and barrels) you have in storage to play with.

    As for the economic war, it’s true that oil sanctions have largely failed. But prices are coming down which will hurt Russian earning power. And gas to Europe has now gone for ever, no one will ever trust Russian supply again except at the margins. So it’s a one time poison pill for Europe that has already been swallowed. The only thing really that matters is whether the White House is lived in by someone who wants to keep the military aid going.
    It is, as the headline says, a mix of views.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,099
    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    Penddu2 said:

    Latest Sunday Times polling shows support for Welsh Independence approaching 40%

    ..... amongst the English.
    England would get on a lot better if her voters were pro-English rather than anti-everybody-else.

    British Nationalism is damaging all the members of the Union.
    Says the man who is anti-English above pro anything else. Good to see Gothenburg and PB’s resident hater of all things English up and at em this morning nevertheless.
    But the current crop of Uber English Nationalists like Johnson and Truss feed Stuart and Malcolm's hatred of the English. I don't like English Nationalists either, and I am pro the Union.
    What happened to Malc? He posted on 4 July that I was the most hated man ever and vanished. Hope he’s okay.
    Someome saw him posting on Twitter recently.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,604

    Jonathan said:

    I am offended by the chancellor asking people to tighten their belts because there is a war. Normally when that happens it’s to support troops or a general war effort.

    Right now , we need to tighten our belts to enable fat cats to get fatter in a broken energy market.

    If it’s a war, free markets cannot function properly, so you nationalise key resources.

    I suspect the current lot don’t want to do that because someone is getting mind boggingly rich.

    So much bs in one comment. ;)

    "There's a problem, so I'll blame my usual suspects for the problem, and use my usual 'solutions' for it."
    Where’s the BS?

    Are you saying the energy market isn’t broken?
    Are you saying some organisations aren’t getting rich?
    Are you saying in wartime resources aren’t often nationalised?
    Are you saying the chancellor didn’t tell us to tighten our belts became of the war?

  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,322

    Penddu2 said:

    Latest Sunday Times polling shows support for Welsh Independence approaching 40%
    http://redirect.viglink.com/?key=71fe2139a887ad501313cd8cce3053c5&subId=3414711&u=https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/7lxb647ksn/SundayTimes_StateOfTheUnion_220819%20%28Wales%29.pdf
    Wait till those energy bills start landing in the letter boxes...

    We are not an independently minded nation but an Independent Scotland will add to the notion that we would like some of that.

    I am not sure what the attraction of a well stocked backwater on the left hand side of Conservative England, both geographically and politically has to the English Nationalists. Other than piping our water along the Boris Johnson Canal to London I suspect Wales serves little purpose to them.
    Sounds like a milder case of "Northern Ireland" except they cannot pipe water across :wink: I wonder if Ms Truss will build the Boris Tunnel under the North Channel?
This discussion has been closed.