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Some stark front pages this Saturday morning – politicalbetting.com

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 31,942
    moonshine said:

    Fishing said:


    It seems incredible to me that only now, more than 6 months after the war broke out, are policymakers realising the implications of their approach towards Russia.

    Of course, I was not a fan of the policy, but that is not my point here.

    The point is -- once you have decided on an approach -- then you need to prepare for its full consequences.

    It was obvious that the consequence of the British/European policy on Russia/Ukraine was going to be an energy crisis.

    No-one seems to have thought the consequences of the policy through and prepared for them.

    The entire British/European political elite is just ill-equipped to deal with the complex & inter-dependent reality of our 21st-century world.

    I think the problem was a massive overestimation of the effects of non-military sanctions. I don't ever recall them working against a determined dictatorship, despite dozens of cases of their being implemented. Putin needs to be defeated on the battlefield in Ukraine, not in the financial markets. If we could divert the tens of billions that a gas shutdown will cost us to buying military equipment, I think he'd be in a much worse place.

    (Of course that's a simplistic argument but I think it is a useful thought experiment in using limited resources to best effect - governing, in other words).
    So far as I can see, at least at time of writing, Putin still has the support of the vast majority of the Russian population. Final defeat surely can only come from within; many Germans were convinced that they had not lost World War I, consequently there was a rerun in the late 30s. However it was beyond argument that they had lost in 1945 and they picked themselves up sorted themselves out and have now returned to being, generally speakin,g a modern democratic state.
    How are we going to convince the Russian people that they have lost? That some very important, culturally, cities are now in another country?
    "How are we going to convince the Russian people that they have lost?"

    It looks like a stalemate. Ukraine can't retake Kherson, Russia can't take Mykolaiv.

    Both Ukraine and Russia are much weaker than when it all began. There has been massive loss of life on both sides, and most of the contested parts of Ukraine are a smouldering ruin.

    This war will now drag on for some years -- until both sides finally accept they can't win it & they can't get everything they want.

    Given the characters of Putin & Zelensky, I'd guess the duration is going to be something like the Iran-Iraq War -- so 8 years.
    To be fair, Ukraine hasn't really *tried* to retake Kherson yet. That might be because they will not be able to, they cannot yet, or they think it's the wrong time to try.
    Whatever ... Ukraine is a very, very long way from re-taking all the territory that Russia has occupied.

    Some degree of realism is needed.

    If Zelensky's aim is to re-take all that territory, then this war will drag on for years.
    So far Ukraine has retaken an area equivalent in size to Denmark and at a fraction of the loss of life that Russia expended in taking it. Perhaps it bores you that they’re not adopting a high speed / high attrition model of counteroffensive but their 1000 bee stings strategy will work nonetheless.
    It’s more that they are actually preparing the ground by destroying logistics. Rather than Zerg rushing in the hope that the Russians forget where the triggers are or something,
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 36,732

    stodge said:


    I think that's a conspiracy theory. Taxation is at a 70-year high and there are plenty in the Conservative Party very unhappy about it. There'd be no point in the Conservatives if they were just offering higher taxation and spending like all the rest, and it wouldn't be good for balance in our political system either.

    The bit they're missing is that lowering taxation is about putting more money back in people's pockets but when energy prices are this high it effectively acts as a super-tax, and that's what should be tackled first.

    The notion of the Conservative Party being the slightly lesser of two high tax and spending social democratic parties isn't without some wry amusement as that's basically what it is in the era of Butskellism from 1945 to 1979.

    I don't anyone calling the political system unbalanced when over 85% regularly voted for Jack Johnson or John Jackson.

    I've no problem with Conservatives arguing for lower taxes - my problem is them failing to be honest about how the gap in the public finances caused by the loss of revenue is to be addressed.

    Presumably it's either a) lower taxes will stimulate economic growth which will in turn generate more tax receipts which will cover the gap, b) we will borrow to make up the shortfall or c) there will need to be cuts in public expenditure but we're too scared of the public response to be honest about which areas will be affected.

    I'd love to hear Truss or Kwarteng or any of the "true believers" tell me which option they believe is the one in the current situation.
    A and B.

    And Truss has said that. She's acknowledged her plan means more borrowing up-front, but then growth to pay for it.
    I believe that was Corbyns manifesto. Are we at the tragedy or the farce part of history yet?
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 6,901
    stodge said:


    Indeed, the Russian withdrawals from territories Ukraine has targeted have typically followed that pattern, like people say about bankruptcy - slow at first, then quickly.

    Some people would have said that Ukraine forcing Russia to withdraw from strategically important Snake Island wouldn't have been possible following it falling on day one of the war, but they managed to do so.

    Ukraine is considerably stronger than when this war began, Russia considerably weaker. If there's a stalemate presently then its because they've met in the middle, but Russia is only getting weaker as time goes on, it has no manufacturing capability or supply chain needed to cope with a long war. Ukraine is only getting stronger as time goes on, they have NATO's supply chain behind them.

    The way to end the war is to supply Ukraine until they've recovered all of their lost territory, including Ukrainian Crimea and all of Eastern Ukraine.

    As an overall assessment, I wouldn't argue.

    I think there was a widespread belief when the invasion started, it would be over quickly either via the political collapse of Ukraine and the replacement of the Zelenskyy Government with a puppet pro-Putin regime or, as seemed the less likely scenario, the military collapse of the invasion and a humiliating retreat.

    This was essentially the 1914 mindset but as we now know the parallels with the First World War weren't entirely misplaced. It could take months, it could take years and there's always the worry as to what a defeated Russia will look like once the conflict has ended and how it will act in the world.

    We are, as someone else accepted, paying the price for our commitment to Kyiv and that may be, no pun intended, cold comfort for many this winter. I'd argue not since the Yom Kippur War has an international conflict had such a serious economic impact on the UK and indeed the rest of the world though I'd also argue that impact has been exacerbated by other factors.
    I think the analogy with the First World War mindset at the beginning is spot-on.

    This could easily last years.
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594
    HYUFD said:

    @Steven_Swinford
    One senior ally of Truss thinks it’s over before it’s even begun

    ‘I think it’s beyond doable

    ‘The winter is going to be awful. If she does badly in the May election they will get rid of her

    ‘They are collectively insane, the party is on the point of meltdown’

    The Truss ally believes that supporters of Sunak will not accept defeat

    ‘It’s gone too far. The people who are backing Sunak will not lose easily.

    ‘Their own personal careers are more important than uniting the country

    ‘They will move against her’


    https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1563455722393722883

    Fortunately for Truss May did so badly in the 2019 local elections, getting just 28% NEV and with the Tories losing over 1000 council seats, the Tories might even make gains next May when those seats are next up
    The Times are making complete idiots of themselves here. They conducted a virulent campaign against Truss and still do. They predicted and urged huge Brownite spending packages that have not emerged and may not. They bet the bank on Sunak and are going to get cleaned out.

    And now they are expecting you to believe a senior Truss ally is not only briefing them, but briefing them against their own candidate.

    FFS how stupid is that?

    All sorts of kites are being flown by mainstream journalists right now, people who championed Sunak and are completely unsurprisingly being left out of Truss's loop.

    If letting the media stew is a deliberate Truss tactic, it is the right one. They are used to huge state intervention, constant briefing by leading lights and generous ad buying in return for spreading government propaganda on Covid.

    If things are changing, good.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 35,822
    edited August 2022

    Penddu2 said:

    Wait till

    Sean_F said:

    Penddu2 said:

    Latest Sunday Times polling shows support for Welsh Independence approaching 40%
    http://redirect.viglink.com/?key=71fe2139a887ad501313cd8cce3053c5&subId=3414711&u=https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/7lxb647ksn/SundayTimes_StateOfTheUnion_220819%20%28Wales%29.pdf
    Wait till those energy bills start landing in the letter boxes...

    That looks more like 31% to me.
    After removing dont knows it is 39% with BJ as PM and 38% with Thick Lizzie
    It's 31% in favour and 69% against for declared voters, like @Sean_F says.

    I can't see any path to Wales becoming self-sustaining as an independent country and, in fact, if I were living there I'd be inclined to vote to get rid of the Welsh Senedd, which seems to be dire and full of petty Hitlers.
    I make it 32% to 68% on the basic question, 38.5% to 61.5% if Truss becomes PM, a much more concrete and imminent possiblilty than a referendum happening.
  • Foxy said:

    stodge said:


    I think that's a conspiracy theory. Taxation is at a 70-year high and there are plenty in the Conservative Party very unhappy about it. There'd be no point in the Conservatives if they were just offering higher taxation and spending like all the rest, and it wouldn't be good for balance in our political system either.

    The bit they're missing is that lowering taxation is about putting more money back in people's pockets but when energy prices are this high it effectively acts as a super-tax, and that's what should be tackled first.

    The notion of the Conservative Party being the slightly lesser of two high tax and spending social democratic parties isn't without some wry amusement as that's basically what it is in the era of Butskellism from 1945 to 1979.

    I don't anyone calling the political system unbalanced when over 85% regularly voted for Jack Johnson or John Jackson.

    I've no problem with Conservatives arguing for lower taxes - my problem is them failing to be honest about how the gap in the public finances caused by the loss of revenue is to be addressed.

    Presumably it's either a) lower taxes will stimulate economic growth which will in turn generate more tax receipts which will cover the gap, b) we will borrow to make up the shortfall or c) there will need to be cuts in public expenditure but we're too scared of the public response to be honest about which areas will be affected.

    I'd love to hear Truss or Kwarteng or any of the "true believers" tell me which option they believe is the one in the current situation.
    A and B.

    And Truss has said that. She's acknowledged her plan means more borrowing up-front, but then growth to pay for it.
    I believe that was Corbyns manifesto. Are we at the tragedy or the farce part of history yet?
    I must have missed the tax cutting and growth part of Corbyn's manifesto. Where was that? Which taxes did he want to cut to grow the economy?

    He wanted to borrow to nationalise parts of the economy, which retards growth not encourages it. And he wanted to put up taxes, which again retards growth.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 23,287
    edited August 2022

    I believe there is approximately eight trillion quid of housing wealth in this country.

    5% of that is £400bn.

    A government can do a lot with that with the money to be recouped when property is sold.

    It might not be popular with many but neither are price rises and tax rises.

    The problem with taxing when people move is that it harms mobility and does nothing to raise money from people who buy homes to let etc

    A 1% annual tax on housing wealth would at that level raise approximately £80bn at that level. Enough to abolish Council Tax and Stamp Duty with tens of billions more leftover.

    It would also mean that if people inflate their housing value, eg by NIMBYism, then their tax goes up automatically accordingly. If house prices remain affordable, then taxes go down accordingly. Since NIMBYism etc is an externality this is an entirely appropriate tax mechanism, just like taxing pollution.
    I think a 1% property wealth tax would be significantly higher than council tax.

    The advantage of taking the tax on the sale is that the seller has at that point the means to pay it.

    Of course it would be possible to have an annual property wealth tax on all property owned apart from a single personal home.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 6,901

    IshmaelZ said:

    I believe there is approximately eight trillion quid of housing wealth in this country.

    5% of that is £400bn.

    A government can do a lot with that with the money to be recouped when property is sold.

    It might not be popular with many but neither are price rises and tax rises.

    It's illiquid. Perhaps 5% of homeowners can find the money elsewhere, the rest are going to have to borrow against the house at whatever horrific interest rates apply at the time. It isn't free money.
    It would only be paid when the property is sold.

    Its effectively a big increase in stamp duty.

    Though you could charge a portion of it via council tax each year - say 0.2% of the house's nominal council tax value which would be between £80 and £640.
    Council Tax is paid by the property occupier, not the owner.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 25,230
    Which specific sectors of the economy will produce this growth over the winter?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 36,732

    Fishing said:


    It seems incredible to me that only now, more than 6 months after the war broke out, are policymakers realising the implications of their approach towards Russia.

    Of course, I was not a fan of the policy, but that is not my point here.

    The point is -- once you have decided on an approach -- then you need to prepare for its full consequences.

    It was obvious that the consequence of the British/European policy on Russia/Ukraine was going to be an energy crisis.

    No-one seems to have thought the consequences of the policy through and prepared for them.

    The entire British/European political elite is just ill-equipped to deal with the complex & inter-dependent reality of our 21st-century world.

    I think the problem was a massive overestimation of the effects of non-military sanctions. I don't ever recall them working against a determined dictatorship, despite dozens of cases of their being implemented. Putin needs to be defeated on the battlefield in Ukraine, not in the financial markets. If we could divert the tens of billions that a gas shutdown will cost us to buying military equipment, I think he'd be in a much worse place.

    (Of course that's a simplistic argument but I think it is a useful thought experiment in using limited resources to best effect - governing, in other words).
    We have a painful winter in front us but the economic outlook for Russia in the medium term appears to be dire. They are selling their oil to India and China at a big discount. Selling the gas to other customers which given they can no longer be deemed a secure supplier in Europe they will undoubtedly have to do will be a huge logistical challenge. They don't have the pipelines, ships or LNG facilities available nor the access to western technology to help them do so. Putin is gambling on Europe folding this winter. But even if they do, what then? The US can't be stopped and I doubt Poland will be either.
    I think it will be a very hard winter in Ukraine, both free and occupied. They too were very dependent on Russian gas.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 7,280
    Ukraine had been saying for a while that August would be a key month. I thought a major counteroffensive in Kherson was a better than 50/50 chance. So what happened? Russia decided to move a lot of troops there presumably in order to stop it. That may have worked. However the problem for them is that they now have a much bigger army in a vulnerable position west of the Dnieper who will be difficult to supply.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 18,992
    HYUFD said:

    Penddu2 said:

    Wait till

    Sean_F said:

    Penddu2 said:

    Latest Sunday Times polling shows support for Welsh Independence approaching 40%
    http://redirect.viglink.com/?key=71fe2139a887ad501313cd8cce3053c5&subId=3414711&u=https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/7lxb647ksn/SundayTimes_StateOfTheUnion_220819%20%28Wales%29.pdf
    Wait till those energy bills start landing in the letter boxes...

    That looks more like 31% to me.
    After removing dont knows it is 39% with BJ as PM and 38% with Thick Lizzie
    Given 48% of Welsh voters voted Remain either way that is sub par for Welsh nationalists post Brexit
    We need you back and voting Plaid as before!
  • This winter is going to be very tough indeed and I fear it's also going to get very cold after how mild last winter was.

    The Government will simply have to act, to not do so is surely political suicide.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 8,712
    MISTY said:

    HYUFD said:

    @Steven_Swinford
    One senior ally of Truss thinks it’s over before it’s even begun

    ‘I think it’s beyond doable

    ‘The winter is going to be awful. If she does badly in the May election they will get rid of her

    ‘They are collectively insane, the party is on the point of meltdown’

    The Truss ally believes that supporters of Sunak will not accept defeat

    ‘It’s gone too far. The people who are backing Sunak will not lose easily.

    ‘Their own personal careers are more important than uniting the country

    ‘They will move against her’


    https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1563455722393722883

    Fortunately for Truss May did so badly in the 2019 local elections, getting just 28% NEV and with the Tories losing over 1000 council seats, the Tories might even make gains next May when those seats are next up
    The Times are making complete idiots of themselves here. They conducted a virulent campaign against Truss and still do. They predicted and urged huge Brownite spending packages that have not emerged and may not. They bet the bank on Sunak and are going to get cleaned out.

    And now they are expecting you to believe a senior Truss ally is not only briefing them, but briefing them against their own candidate.

    FFS how stupid is that?

    All sorts of kites are being flown by mainstream journalists right now, people who championed Sunak and are completely unsurprisingly being left out of Truss's loop.

    If letting the media stew is a deliberate Truss tactic, it is the right one. They are used to huge state intervention, constant briefing by leading lights and generous ad buying in return for spreading government propaganda on Covid.

    If things are changing, good.
    If I were Truss I think I would go for an immediate GE. It must be immediate or she would risk May-type electoral disapproval.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 6,901
    Foxy said:

    Fishing said:


    It seems incredible to me that only now, more than 6 months after the war broke out, are policymakers realising the implications of their approach towards Russia.

    Of course, I was not a fan of the policy, but that is not my point here.

    The point is -- once you have decided on an approach -- then you need to prepare for its full consequences.

    It was obvious that the consequence of the British/European policy on Russia/Ukraine was going to be an energy crisis.

    No-one seems to have thought the consequences of the policy through and prepared for them.

    The entire British/European political elite is just ill-equipped to deal with the complex & inter-dependent reality of our 21st-century world.

    I think the problem was a massive overestimation of the effects of non-military sanctions. I don't ever recall them working against a determined dictatorship, despite dozens of cases of their being implemented. Putin needs to be defeated on the battlefield in Ukraine, not in the financial markets. If we could divert the tens of billions that a gas shutdown will cost us to buying military equipment, I think he'd be in a much worse place.

    (Of course that's a simplistic argument but I think it is a useful thought experiment in using limited resources to best effect - governing, in other words).
    We have a painful winter in front us but the economic outlook for Russia in the medium term appears to be dire. They are selling their oil to India and China at a big discount. Selling the gas to other customers which given they can no longer be deemed a secure supplier in Europe they will undoubtedly have to do will be a huge logistical challenge. They don't have the pipelines, ships or LNG facilities available nor the access to western technology to help them do so. Putin is gambling on Europe folding this winter. But even if they do, what then? The US can't be stopped and I doubt Poland will be either.
    I think it will be a very hard winter in Ukraine, both free and occupied. They too were very dependent on Russian gas.
    It will be very, very grim, sadly.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 16,258
    Foxy said:

    stodge said:


    I think that's a conspiracy theory. Taxation is at a 70-year high and there are plenty in the Conservative Party very unhappy about it. There'd be no point in the Conservatives if they were just offering higher taxation and spending like all the rest, and it wouldn't be good for balance in our political system either.

    The bit they're missing is that lowering taxation is about putting more money back in people's pockets but when energy prices are this high it effectively acts as a super-tax, and that's what should be tackled first.

    The notion of the Conservative Party being the slightly lesser of two high tax and spending social democratic parties isn't without some wry amusement as that's basically what it is in the era of Butskellism from 1945 to 1979.

    I don't anyone calling the political system unbalanced when over 85% regularly voted for Jack Johnson or John Jackson.

    I've no problem with Conservatives arguing for lower taxes - my problem is them failing to be honest about how the gap in the public finances caused by the loss of revenue is to be addressed.

    Presumably it's either a) lower taxes will stimulate economic growth which will in turn generate more tax receipts which will cover the gap, b) we will borrow to make up the shortfall or c) there will need to be cuts in public expenditure but we're too scared of the public response to be honest about which areas will be affected.

    I'd love to hear Truss or Kwarteng or any of the "true believers" tell me which option they believe is the one in the current situation.
    A and B.

    And Truss has said that. She's acknowledged her plan means more borrowing up-front, but then growth to pay for it.
    I believe that was Corbyns manifesto. Are we at the tragedy or the farce part of history yet?
    Borrowing more now to invest for the future is the best solution for the UK. Corbyn and Truss are two of the worst candidates ever presented by the major parties to implement such a policy though.
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594

    I believe there is approximately eight trillion quid of housing wealth in this country.

    5% of that is £400bn.

    A government can do a lot with that with the money to be recouped when property is sold.

    It might not be popular with many but neither are price rises and tax rises.

    The problem with taxing when people move is that it harms mobility and does nothing to raise money from people who buy homes to let etc

    A 1% annual tax on housing wealth would at that level raise approximately £80bn at that level. Enough to abolish Council Tax and Stamp Duty with tens of billions more leftover.

    It would also mean that if people inflate their housing value, eg by NIMBYism, then their tax goes up automatically accordingly. If house prices remain affordable, then taxes go down accordingly. Since NIMBYism etc is an externality this is an entirely appropriate tax mechanism, just like taxing pollution.
    I think a 1% property wealth tax would be significantly higher than council tax.

    The advantage of taking the tax on the sale is that the seller has at that point the means to pay it.

    Of course it would be possible to have an annual property wealth tax on all property owned apart from a single personal home.
    Truss correctly realises that simply adding another tax to sort out our problems is not the right solution.

    We can see that in the numbers right now. Sunak's taxes are not raising what was forecast for them and they are helping to pitch the economy into recession to boot, which means even less revenue ahead.

    Raising taxes again only perpetuates the cycle.
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,368
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    @Steven_Swinford
    One senior ally of Truss thinks it’s over before it’s even begun

    ‘I think it’s beyond doable

    ‘The winter is going to be awful. If she does badly in the May election they will get rid of her

    ‘They are collectively insane, the party is on the point of meltdown’

    The Truss ally believes that supporters of Sunak will not accept defeat

    ‘It’s gone too far. The people who are backing Sunak will not lose easily.

    ‘Their own personal careers are more important than uniting the country

    ‘They will move against her’


    https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1563455722393722883

    Fortunately for Truss May did so badly in the 2019 local elections, getting just 28% NEV and with the Tories losing over 1000 council seats, the Tories might even make gains next May when those seats are next up
    Are you going to back Truss then ?
    Well obviously I will back her if she becomes Leader of the Party, even if I did not vote for her in the leadership campaign. As I have backed every Leader who has won the party leadership even if I did not vote for them since I joined the party in 1998
    But is she proves to be a disaster and there is a Conservative civil war, young HY? What then?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 35,822

    Foxy said:

    stodge said:


    I think that's a conspiracy theory. Taxation is at a 70-year high and there are plenty in the Conservative Party very unhappy about it. There'd be no point in the Conservatives if they were just offering higher taxation and spending like all the rest, and it wouldn't be good for balance in our political system either.

    The bit they're missing is that lowering taxation is about putting more money back in people's pockets but when energy prices are this high it effectively acts as a super-tax, and that's what should be tackled first.

    The notion of the Conservative Party being the slightly lesser of two high tax and spending social democratic parties isn't without some wry amusement as that's basically what it is in the era of Butskellism from 1945 to 1979.

    I don't anyone calling the political system unbalanced when over 85% regularly voted for Jack Johnson or John Jackson.

    I've no problem with Conservatives arguing for lower taxes - my problem is them failing to be honest about how the gap in the public finances caused by the loss of revenue is to be addressed.

    Presumably it's either a) lower taxes will stimulate economic growth which will in turn generate more tax receipts which will cover the gap, b) we will borrow to make up the shortfall or c) there will need to be cuts in public expenditure but we're too scared of the public response to be honest about which areas will be affected.

    I'd love to hear Truss or Kwarteng or any of the "true believers" tell me which option they believe is the one in the current situation.
    A and B.

    And Truss has said that. She's acknowledged her plan means more borrowing up-front, but then growth to pay for it.
    I believe that was Corbyns manifesto. Are we at the tragedy or the farce part of history yet?
    Borrowing more now to invest for the future is the best solution for the UK. Corbyn and Truss are two of the worst candidates ever presented by the major parties to implement such a policy though.
    Yebbut only one of them is going to be actually making a fcuk up of implementing said policy.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,649
    edited August 2022
    MISTY said:

    HYUFD said:

    @Steven_Swinford
    One senior ally of Truss thinks it’s over before it’s even begun

    ‘I think it’s beyond doable

    ‘The winter is going to be awful. If she does badly in the May election they will get rid of her

    ‘They are collectively insane, the party is on the point of meltdown’

    The Truss ally believes that supporters of Sunak will not accept defeat

    ‘It’s gone too far. The people who are backing Sunak will not lose easily.

    ‘Their own personal careers are more important than uniting the country

    ‘They will move against her’


    https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1563455722393722883

    Fortunately for Truss May did so badly in the 2019 local elections, getting just 28% NEV and with the Tories losing over 1000 council seats, the Tories might even make gains next May when those seats are next up
    The Times are making complete idiots of themselves here. They conducted a virulent campaign against Truss and still do. They predicted and urged huge Brownite spending packages that have not emerged and may not. They bet the bank on Sunak and are going to get cleaned out.

    And now they are expecting you to believe a senior Truss ally is not only briefing them, but briefing them against their own candidate.

    FFS how stupid is that?

    All sorts of kites are being flown by mainstream journalists right now, people who championed Sunak and are completely unsurprisingly being left out of Truss's loop.

    If letting the media stew is a deliberate Truss tactic, it is the right one. They are used to huge state intervention, constant briefing by leading lights and generous ad buying in return for spreading government propaganda on Covid.

    If things are changing, good.
    Michael Gove reinventing himself as a tough love ally for one anonylouse interview only.
    Truss probably needs to threaten or enact some sort of Gaukeward squad intervention when the squawking begins or the internicine shite will never end. Then again its been rumbling since at least 1990 so why would it end now?
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 6,901

    HYUFD said:

    Penddu2 said:

    Wait till

    Sean_F said:

    Penddu2 said:

    Latest Sunday Times polling shows support for Welsh Independence approaching 40%
    http://redirect.viglink.com/?key=71fe2139a887ad501313cd8cce3053c5&subId=3414711&u=https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/7lxb647ksn/SundayTimes_StateOfTheUnion_220819%20%28Wales%29.pdf
    Wait till those energy bills start landing in the letter boxes...

    That looks more like 31% to me.
    After removing dont knows it is 39% with BJ as PM and 38% with Thick Lizzie
    Given 48% of Welsh voters voted Remain either way that is sub par for Welsh nationalists post Brexit
    We need you back and voting Plaid as before!
    Is it an urban myth that HYUFD once voted Plaid Cymru ?

    I am assuming it was Aberystwyth Town Council or Ceredigion County Council.

    What were the circs ? Was there no Tory ?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 36,732
    dixiedean said:

    Which specific sectors of the economy will produce this growth over the winter?

    None of them. The idea that tax cuts and deregulation will create instant problem free growth is delusional.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 16,258

    Sean_F said:

    Penddu2 said:

    Latest Sunday Times polling shows support for Welsh Independence approaching 40%
    http://redirect.viglink.com/?key=71fe2139a887ad501313cd8cce3053c5&subId=3414711&u=https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/7lxb647ksn/SundayTimes_StateOfTheUnion_220819%20%28Wales%29.pdf
    Wait till those energy bills start landing in the letter boxes...

    That looks more like 31% to me.
    It's remarkable how indifferent people are, right across GB, to the fate of Northern Ireland.
    Is it really? Surrendering to the IRA was unthinkable but post partition have the English ever been that interested in the place? People rarely go there, it's seen as culturally alien and the likes of Trimble and Hume have been replaced by the DUP and Sinn Fein. A party that supported the armed struggle and one that demands a bung to support the government. If English people couldn't really get worked up about Scottish independence it's hardly surprising they don't give much thought to Ulster.
    Lets build a bridge. And a tunnel. We could even put an airport halfway along the bridge.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    This winter is going to be very tough indeed and I fear it's also going to get very cold after how mild last winter was.

    The Government will simply have to act, to not do so is surely political suicide.

    Welcome

    I think that is a fallacy about successive winters
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 48,985

    Sean_F said:

    Penddu2 said:

    Latest Sunday Times polling shows support for Welsh Independence approaching 40%
    http://redirect.viglink.com/?key=71fe2139a887ad501313cd8cce3053c5&subId=3414711&u=https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/7lxb647ksn/SundayTimes_StateOfTheUnion_220819%20%28Wales%29.pdf
    Wait till those energy bills start landing in the letter boxes...

    That looks more like 31% to me.
    It's remarkable how indifferent people are, right across GB, to the fate of Northern Ireland.
    I suspect, although as you say there is very little discussion of the subject, most people here are simply waiting for it to reunite with the rest of Ireland. Whether that will be overall to the gain of most people in Northern Ireland is a different matter; as a Remainer I of course believe that Joy will be unrestrained, but I recognise that a number of people in Northern Ireland will regret losing the link with the Crown.
    That's Remainerism all over really, isn't it?

    Loyalty to the EU is greater than loyalty to the Crown.

    And they wonder why they anger Leavers.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,779
    edited August 2022

    HYUFD said:

    Penddu2 said:

    Wait till

    Sean_F said:

    Penddu2 said:

    Latest Sunday Times polling shows support for Welsh Independence approaching 40%
    http://redirect.viglink.com/?key=71fe2139a887ad501313cd8cce3053c5&subId=3414711&u=https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/7lxb647ksn/SundayTimes_StateOfTheUnion_220819%20%28Wales%29.pdf
    Wait till those energy bills start landing in the letter boxes...

    That looks more like 31% to me.
    After removing dont knows it is 39% with BJ as PM and 38% with Thick Lizzie
    Given 48% of Welsh voters voted Remain either way that is sub par for Welsh nationalists post Brexit
    We need you back and voting Plaid as before!
    Is it an urban myth that HYUFD once voted Plaid Cymru ?

    I am assuming it was Aberystwyth Town Council or Ceredigion County Council.

    What were the circs ? Was there no Tory ?
    Ipse dixit. Not sure if Senedd or local gmt, but it was some sort of proportional system where you had to vote in sequence.

    He voted for the Tories and then PC (edit: Maybe with MRLP and Labour in between, don't recall).
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594

    This winter is going to be very tough indeed and I fear it's also going to get very cold after how mild last winter was.

    The Government will simply have to act, to not do so is surely political suicide.

    Right now there is no movement from the government because there is no government.

    How much has no movement made in the polls so far? a couple of percentage points? What there is, is a giant screeching match in the media. Andrew Neill reckons that, actually, we may already be starting to get on top of this.

    If I read Truss right, she has sat there watching Johnson p8ss his nappies over every commentariat alarm bell over the past two and a half years and realised its that conduct that has got us where we are.

    If that's her attitude, good. The early signs are, somebody in the Truss camp has a pair of nuts.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,779

    Sean_F said:

    Penddu2 said:

    Latest Sunday Times polling shows support for Welsh Independence approaching 40%
    http://redirect.viglink.com/?key=71fe2139a887ad501313cd8cce3053c5&subId=3414711&u=https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/7lxb647ksn/SundayTimes_StateOfTheUnion_220819%20%28Wales%29.pdf
    Wait till those energy bills start landing in the letter boxes...

    That looks more like 31% to me.
    It's remarkable how indifferent people are, right across GB, to the fate of Northern Ireland.
    Is it really? Surrendering to the IRA was unthinkable but post partition have the English ever been that interested in the place? People rarely go there, it's seen as culturally alien and the likes of Trimble and Hume have been replaced by the DUP and Sinn Fein. A party that supported the armed struggle and one that demands a bung to support the government. If English people couldn't really get worked up about Scottish independence it's hardly surprising they don't give much thought to Ulster.
    Lets build a bridge. And a tunnel. We could even put an airport halfway along the bridge.
    You forgot the flowerpots.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 35,822
    Anyway, the grim winter ahead has been cheered up for me with news of series 4 of Babylon Berlin, a tale of hyper inflation, street fighting, and the rise of Fascism.

    https://youtu.be/cWnCxbdpqK4
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 16,258
    Carnyx said:

    Sean_F said:

    Penddu2 said:

    Latest Sunday Times polling shows support for Welsh Independence approaching 40%
    http://redirect.viglink.com/?key=71fe2139a887ad501313cd8cce3053c5&subId=3414711&u=https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/7lxb647ksn/SundayTimes_StateOfTheUnion_220819%20%28Wales%29.pdf
    Wait till those energy bills start landing in the letter boxes...

    That looks more like 31% to me.
    It's remarkable how indifferent people are, right across GB, to the fate of Northern Ireland.
    Is it really? Surrendering to the IRA was unthinkable but post partition have the English ever been that interested in the place? People rarely go there, it's seen as culturally alien and the likes of Trimble and Hume have been replaced by the DUP and Sinn Fein. A party that supported the armed struggle and one that demands a bung to support the government. If English people couldn't really get worked up about Scottish independence it's hardly surprising they don't give much thought to Ulster.
    Lets build a bridge. And a tunnel. We could even put an airport halfway along the bridge.
    You forgot the flowerpots.
    I was saving them for the seventy second hustings event. Got to keep my pitch fresh.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,393
    Looks like another 3 day test match. 20/20 cricket is probably to blame for this.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,779

    Sean_F said:

    Penddu2 said:

    Latest Sunday Times polling shows support for Welsh Independence approaching 40%
    http://redirect.viglink.com/?key=71fe2139a887ad501313cd8cce3053c5&subId=3414711&u=https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/7lxb647ksn/SundayTimes_StateOfTheUnion_220819%20%28Wales%29.pdf
    Wait till those energy bills start landing in the letter boxes...

    That looks more like 31% to me.
    It's remarkable how indifferent people are, right across GB, to the fate of Northern Ireland.
    I suspect, although as you say there is very little discussion of the subject, most people here are simply waiting for it to reunite with the rest of Ireland. Whether that will be overall to the gain of most people in Northern Ireland is a different matter; as a Remainer I of course believe that Joy will be unrestrained, but I recognise that a number of people in Northern Ireland will regret losing the link with the Crown.
    That's Remainerism all over really, isn't it?

    Loyalty to the EU is greater than loyalty to the Crown.

    And they wonder why they anger Leavers.
    Not logical. You're leaving out the issue of loyalty to Ireland and/or NI and/or and the local economy.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 29,279

    Sean_F said:

    Penddu2 said:

    Latest Sunday Times polling shows support for Welsh Independence approaching 40%
    http://redirect.viglink.com/?key=71fe2139a887ad501313cd8cce3053c5&subId=3414711&u=https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/7lxb647ksn/SundayTimes_StateOfTheUnion_220819%20%28Wales%29.pdf
    Wait till those energy bills start landing in the letter boxes...

    That looks more like 31% to me.
    It's remarkable how indifferent people are, right across GB, to the fate of Northern Ireland.
    I suspect, although as you say there is very little discussion of the subject, most people here are simply waiting for it to reunite with the rest of Ireland. Whether that will be overall to the gain of most people in Northern Ireland is a different matter; as a Remainer I of course believe that Joy will be unrestrained, but I recognise that a number of people in Northern Ireland will regret losing the link with the Crown.
    That's Remainerism all over really, isn't it?

    Loyalty to the EU is greater than loyalty to the Crown.

    And they wonder why they anger Leavers.
    I thought after I'd posted that irony doesn't come across well!
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594

    Anyway, the grim winter ahead has been cheered up for me with news of series 4 of Babylon Berlin, a tale of hyper inflation, street fighting, and the rise of Fascism.

    https://youtu.be/cWnCxbdpqK4

    Looks f8cking amazing, Cabaret on steroids, thanks for the recommendation.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 16,258

    Foxy said:

    stodge said:


    I think that's a conspiracy theory. Taxation is at a 70-year high and there are plenty in the Conservative Party very unhappy about it. There'd be no point in the Conservatives if they were just offering higher taxation and spending like all the rest, and it wouldn't be good for balance in our political system either.

    The bit they're missing is that lowering taxation is about putting more money back in people's pockets but when energy prices are this high it effectively acts as a super-tax, and that's what should be tackled first.

    The notion of the Conservative Party being the slightly lesser of two high tax and spending social democratic parties isn't without some wry amusement as that's basically what it is in the era of Butskellism from 1945 to 1979.

    I don't anyone calling the political system unbalanced when over 85% regularly voted for Jack Johnson or John Jackson.

    I've no problem with Conservatives arguing for lower taxes - my problem is them failing to be honest about how the gap in the public finances caused by the loss of revenue is to be addressed.

    Presumably it's either a) lower taxes will stimulate economic growth which will in turn generate more tax receipts which will cover the gap, b) we will borrow to make up the shortfall or c) there will need to be cuts in public expenditure but we're too scared of the public response to be honest about which areas will be affected.

    I'd love to hear Truss or Kwarteng or any of the "true believers" tell me which option they believe is the one in the current situation.
    A and B.

    And Truss has said that. She's acknowledged her plan means more borrowing up-front, but then growth to pay for it.
    I believe that was Corbyns manifesto. Are we at the tragedy or the farce part of history yet?
    Borrowing more now to invest for the future is the best solution for the UK. Corbyn and Truss are two of the worst candidates ever presented by the major parties to implement such a policy though.
    Yebbut only one of them is going to be actually making a fcuk up of implementing said policy.
    Eventually the gerontocracy will lose control and whilst it wont be Corbyn, we shall suffer a Corbynite government as a reaction to the young being shafted for decades.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,649
    IshmaelZ said:

    This winter is going to be very tough indeed and I fear it's also going to get very cold after how mild last winter was.

    The Government will simply have to act, to not do so is surely political suicide.

    Welcome

    I think that is a fallacy about successive winters
    It is. In the last 9 winters only 2013 could remotely be described as colder than average (a cold Jan and Feb that year)
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 48,985
    stodge said:


    I think that's a conspiracy theory. Taxation is at a 70-year high and there are plenty in the Conservative Party very unhappy about it. There'd be no point in the Conservatives if they were just offering higher taxation and spending like all the rest, and it wouldn't be good for balance in our political system either.

    The bit they're missing is that lowering taxation is about putting more money back in people's pockets but when energy prices are this high it effectively acts as a super-tax, and that's what should be tackled first.

    The notion of the Conservative Party being the slightly lesser of two high tax and spending social democratic parties isn't without some wry amusement as that's basically what it is in the era of Butskellism from 1945 to 1979.

    I don't anyone calling the political system unbalanced when over 85% regularly voted for Jack Johnson or John Jackson.

    I've no problem with Conservatives arguing for lower taxes - my problem is them failing to be honest about how the gap in the public finances caused by the loss of revenue is to be addressed.

    Presumably it's either a) lower taxes will stimulate economic growth which will in turn generate more tax receipts which will cover the gap, b) we will borrow to make up the shortfall or c) there will need to be cuts in public expenditure but we're too scared of the public response to be honest about which areas will be affected.

    I'd love to hear Truss or Kwarteng or any of the "true believers" tell me which option they believe is the one in the current situation.
    I suspect the sort of tax cuts that would stimulate economic growth aren't the popular ones; it would probably be top-rate tax, corporation tax, windfall profits and wealth taxes - things like that - to unlock more FDI.

    I think we need to tax income less and assets more. I can't see any obvious targets for spending cuts at present, other than I think the triple-whammy of pensions/healthcare/social-care is all costing the state too much and individuals need to prepare to work longer and insure themselves more.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Carnyx said:

    Sean_F said:

    Penddu2 said:

    Latest Sunday Times polling shows support for Welsh Independence approaching 40%
    http://redirect.viglink.com/?key=71fe2139a887ad501313cd8cce3053c5&subId=3414711&u=https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/7lxb647ksn/SundayTimes_StateOfTheUnion_220819%20%28Wales%29.pdf
    Wait till those energy bills start landing in the letter boxes...

    That looks more like 31% to me.
    It's remarkable how indifferent people are, right across GB, to the fate of Northern Ireland.
    I suspect, although as you say there is very little discussion of the subject, most people here are simply waiting for it to reunite with the rest of Ireland. Whether that will be overall to the gain of most people in Northern Ireland is a different matter; as a Remainer I of course believe that Joy will be unrestrained, but I recognise that a number of people in Northern Ireland will regret losing the link with the Crown.
    That's Remainerism all over really, isn't it?

    Loyalty to the EU is greater than loyalty to the Crown.

    And they wonder why they anger Leavers.
    Not logical. You're leaving out the issue of loyalty to Ireland and/or NI and/or and the local economy.
    My only loyalty is to Tesco. I have a card about it. Literally impossible to imagine what loyal to the Crown would feel like, never mind being angry about people who aren't.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 48,985

    Sean_F said:

    Penddu2 said:

    Latest Sunday Times polling shows support for Welsh Independence approaching 40%
    http://redirect.viglink.com/?key=71fe2139a887ad501313cd8cce3053c5&subId=3414711&u=https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/7lxb647ksn/SundayTimes_StateOfTheUnion_220819%20%28Wales%29.pdf
    Wait till those energy bills start landing in the letter boxes...

    That looks more like 31% to me.
    It's remarkable how indifferent people are, right across GB, to the fate of Northern Ireland.
    I suspect, although as you say there is very little discussion of the subject, most people here are simply waiting for it to reunite with the rest of Ireland. Whether that will be overall to the gain of most people in Northern Ireland is a different matter; as a Remainer I of course believe that Joy will be unrestrained, but I recognise that a number of people in Northern Ireland will regret losing the link with the Crown.
    That's Remainerism all over really, isn't it?

    Loyalty to the EU is greater than loyalty to the Crown.

    And they wonder why they anger Leavers.
    I thought after I'd posted that irony doesn't come across well!
    I sort of know what you mean, at some level.

    Young people are ideologically internationalist, global-citizen orientated and "progressive". So the vibe is important.

    Right now, a reunited Ireland, independent Scotland and Rejoining the EU all talk to that and are achingly right-on, whilst the UK and its heritage seems a bit fuddy-duddyl, so they support those causes.

    But, many of them do so instinctively and indirectly, which means those sentiments could change and in unpredictable ways.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,779
    edited August 2022
    IshmaelZ said:

    Carnyx said:

    Sean_F said:

    Penddu2 said:

    Latest Sunday Times polling shows support for Welsh Independence approaching 40%
    http://redirect.viglink.com/?key=71fe2139a887ad501313cd8cce3053c5&subId=3414711&u=https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/7lxb647ksn/SundayTimes_StateOfTheUnion_220819%20%28Wales%29.pdf
    Wait till those energy bills start landing in the letter boxes...

    That looks more like 31% to me.
    It's remarkable how indifferent people are, right across GB, to the fate of Northern Ireland.
    I suspect, although as you say there is very little discussion of the subject, most people here are simply waiting for it to reunite with the rest of Ireland. Whether that will be overall to the gain of most people in Northern Ireland is a different matter; as a Remainer I of course believe that Joy will be unrestrained, but I recognise that a number of people in Northern Ireland will regret losing the link with the Crown.
    That's Remainerism all over really, isn't it?

    Loyalty to the EU is greater than loyalty to the Crown.

    And they wonder why they anger Leavers.
    Not logical. You're leaving out the issue of loyalty to Ireland and/or NI and/or and the local economy.
    My only loyalty is to Tesco. I have a card about it. Literally impossible to imagine what loyal to the Crown would feel like, never mind being angry about people who aren't.
    Yep, I should have added loyalty to one's own pocket as well, given the implications for the local economy!
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 2,066

    IshmaelZ said:

    This winter is going to be very tough indeed and I fear it's also going to get very cold after how mild last winter was.

    The Government will simply have to act, to not do so is surely political suicide.

    Welcome

    I think that is a fallacy about successive winters
    It is. In the last 9 winters only 2013 could remotely be described as colder than average (a cold Jan and Feb that year)
    I'm going to be buying a jumper for the winter!
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 20,376

    Cyclefree said:

    Sean_F said:

    ydoethur said:

    Priti Patel set to be exiled to the back benches as Liz Truss plots cull of big beasts
    Home Secretary fights to save her job as leadership frontrunner plans shake-up of the Cabinet

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/08/26/priti-patel-set-exiled-back-benches-liz-truss-plots-cull-big/ (£££)

    The Telegraph is also not too keen on the career prospects of Grant Shapps, Mark Spencer, Greg Clark, George Eustice, Steve Barclay, Nigel Adams, Michael Gove, Dominic Raab, Alok Sharma and Rishi Sunak.

    There is no betting on the next Home Secretary that I can see, though I've not checked everywhere.

    Gove and Sunak have already said they won't serve under Truss. Raab is likely to be a third as he's a close ally of both although I haven't seen him say it aloud.

    Shapps is utterly unfit to be a minister: incompetent, arrogant and dishonest, including misleading the House. So I'm surprised Truss wouldn't want him. He might make her look almost up to the job.

    Patel should have gone long ago for similar reasons (for 'misleading the House' read 'bullying her staff').

    Barclay, Sharma and Spencer are hardly 'big beasts.'

    I am surprised about Eustice, even allowing for Truss' appalling lack of judgment. I think it unlikely she will find anyone better suited to his current role where as far as I can judge he's been quietly effective, and given the shitstorm about to engulf agriculture through enormous fuel and fertiliser bills coupled to the ongoing disruption of the new trading reality it really isn't a good moment for a change there. Perhaps he just dared to tell her to her face once that she was talking nonsense.
    JRM ought to be among those culled. He's a poor man's idea of what an aristocrat is (assuming the poor man has never met any aristocrats).
    JRM is not in any sense an aristocrat. A parody of an extra in Brideshead Revisited, maybe.
    He is a complete ar*e because the only thing that comes out of him is loads of shi...... :open_mouth:
    Shivalrous and courtly behaviour?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 29,279

    Sean_F said:

    Penddu2 said:

    Latest Sunday Times polling shows support for Welsh Independence approaching 40%
    http://redirect.viglink.com/?key=71fe2139a887ad501313cd8cce3053c5&subId=3414711&u=https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/7lxb647ksn/SundayTimes_StateOfTheUnion_220819%20%28Wales%29.pdf
    Wait till those energy bills start landing in the letter boxes...

    That looks more like 31% to me.
    It's remarkable how indifferent people are, right across GB, to the fate of Northern Ireland.
    I suspect, although as you say there is very little discussion of the subject, most people here are simply waiting for it to reunite with the rest of Ireland. Whether that will be overall to the gain of most people in Northern Ireland is a different matter; as a Remainer I of course believe that Joy will be unrestrained, but I recognise that a number of people in Northern Ireland will regret losing the link with the Crown.
    That's Remainerism all over really, isn't it?

    Loyalty to the EU is greater than loyalty to the Crown.

    And they wonder why they anger Leavers.
    I thought after I'd posted that irony doesn't come across well!
    I sort of know what you mean, at some level.

    Young people are ideologically internationalist, global-citizen orientated and "progressive". So the vibe is important.

    Right now, a reunited Ireland, independent Scotland and Rejoining the EU all talk to that and are achingly right-on, whilst the UK and its heritage seems a bit fuddy-duddyl, so they support those causes.

    But, many of them do so instinctively and indirectly, which means those sentiments could change and in unpredictable ways.
    Fair comment. Instinct is a funny thing sometimes; not necessarily logical. A reunited Ireland sounds like a great idea but there are enormous practical difficulties, not least entrenched views of some of the population in the north.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 29,279

    IshmaelZ said:

    This winter is going to be very tough indeed and I fear it's also going to get very cold after how mild last winter was.

    The Government will simply have to act, to not do so is surely political suicide.

    Welcome

    I think that is a fallacy about successive winters
    It is. In the last 9 winters only 2013 could remotely be described as colder than average (a cold Jan and Feb that year)
    I'm going to be buying a jumper for the winter!
    Kangaroo or racehorse?
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,368
    ClippP said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    @Steven_Swinford
    One senior ally of Truss thinks it’s over before it’s even begun

    ‘I think it’s beyond doable

    ‘The winter is going to be awful. If she does badly in the May election they will get rid of her

    ‘They are collectively insane, the party is on the point of meltdown’

    The Truss ally believes that supporters of Sunak will not accept defeat

    ‘It’s gone too far. The people who are backing Sunak will not lose easily.

    ‘Their own personal careers are more important than uniting the country

    ‘They will move against her’


    https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1563455722393722883

    Fortunately for Truss May did so badly in the 2019 local elections, getting just 28% NEV and with the Tories losing over 1000 council seats, the Tories might even make gains next May when those seats are next up
    Are you going to back Truss then ?
    Well obviously I will back her if she becomes Leader of the Party, even if I did not vote for her in the leadership campaign. As I have backed every Leader who has won the party leadership even if I did not vote for them since I joined the party in 1998
    But is she proves to be a disaster and there is a Conservative civil war, young HY? What then?
    Or if the Conservative Party finally splits, and the formally elected leader is the head of the smaller (losing) faction?
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 2,066

    IshmaelZ said:

    This winter is going to be very tough indeed and I fear it's also going to get very cold after how mild last winter was.

    The Government will simply have to act, to not do so is surely political suicide.

    Welcome

    I think that is a fallacy about successive winters
    It is. In the last 9 winters only 2013 could remotely be described as colder than average (a cold Jan and Feb that year)
    I'm going to be buying a jumper for the winter!
    Kangaroo or racehorse?
    Not sure yet. I am reviewing the options 👍
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,649

    IshmaelZ said:

    This winter is going to be very tough indeed and I fear it's also going to get very cold after how mild last winter was.

    The Government will simply have to act, to not do so is surely political suicide.

    Welcome

    I think that is a fallacy about successive winters
    It is. In the last 9 winters only 2013 could remotely be described as colder than average (a cold Jan and Feb that year)
    I'm going to be buying a jumper for the winter!
    Ive got loads of jumpers, most of which have never been worn!
    Tbf most winters will have cold snaps, we need to avoid a prolonged high pressure set up to the north east or north or mid atlantic and the cold embedding
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 6,743
    stodge said:

    algarkirk said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Truss, the frontrunner in the leadership contest, has been deliberately ambiguous about her plans to help people with the cost of living. She has publicly committed herself to two main measures — reversing national insurance rises and abolishing green levies on energy bills — that experts have said are largely irrelevant given the scale of price rises. However, she is working on plans to provide billions of pounds in targeted support to pensioners and the poorest households and may adopt her rival Rishi Sunak’s plans to suspend VAT on energy bills. One option under consideration includes using universal credit to target households who need the most support, such as those with big families or people with disabilities

    Times today. Seems important if true

    Yes. Her tricky bit will be establishing a realistic basis for: low tax, sound public finances, reduction in state managed expenditure, tons of free money and excellent public services all at the same time.

    The members voting for it perhaps believe they are all possible. We shall see. The things to watch for are what happens when her lips move, what she actually does, and how she covers it up.

    Oddly enough, all this has echoes for me of the disastrous Conservative campaigns of 2001 and 2005. The message then was taxes could be cut and more money spent on public services. I recall Oliver Letwin producing some absurd figures of what could be cut from central Government without any impact on public services.

    Yes, with sufficient economic growth, you can perhaps increase spending and reduce taxes for a while - you can do one or the other for longer but we aren't in that place by any stretch.

    The traditional Conservative approach has been to cut spending to rebalance the public finances and hope in time that will allow for tax cuts. The traditional Labour approach has been to increase taxes to rebalance the public finances and hope in time that will allow for increased public spending.

    That's a tad simplistic but I think accurate. If Liz Truss wants to cut taxes she has to explain how that will be financed especially if the intention is to hand out large amounts of money to help people with energy bills. If the idea is to cut spending, fine, let's see what she intends to cut and by how much,
    Yes. It's the old story. Low tax, excellent public services, sound public finances. Pick any two.

    At the moment we are 0 out of three. This is remarkable. Ordinary competence in politics is to deliver two out three; low cunning in politics is to do so while pretending to deliver all three.

  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 6,743
    ClippP said:

    ClippP said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    @Steven_Swinford
    One senior ally of Truss thinks it’s over before it’s even begun

    ‘I think it’s beyond doable

    ‘The winter is going to be awful. If she does badly in the May election they will get rid of her

    ‘They are collectively insane, the party is on the point of meltdown’

    The Truss ally believes that supporters of Sunak will not accept defeat

    ‘It’s gone too far. The people who are backing Sunak will not lose easily.

    ‘Their own personal careers are more important than uniting the country

    ‘They will move against her’


    https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1563455722393722883

    Fortunately for Truss May did so badly in the 2019 local elections, getting just 28% NEV and with the Tories losing over 1000 council seats, the Tories might even make gains next May when those seats are next up
    Are you going to back Truss then ?
    Well obviously I will back her if she becomes Leader of the Party, even if I did not vote for her in the leadership campaign. As I have backed every Leader who has won the party leadership even if I did not vote for them since I joined the party in 1998
    But is she proves to be a disaster and there is a Conservative civil war, young HY? What then?
    Or if the Conservative Party finally splits, and the formally elected leader is the head of the smaller (losing) faction?
    As long as we have FPTP the 2 major parties will not have a major split. The motto of each is 'Remember the SDP'.

  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 877

    Anyway, the grim winter ahead has been cheered up for me with news of series 4 of Babylon Berlin, a tale of hyper inflation, street fighting, and the rise of Fascism.

    https://youtu.be/cWnCxbdpqK4

    Ohhhh! That's great! I've loved this so far - the mix of politics, crime (at all levels) and the desperate, consumptive poverty is wonderfully drawn. I'm still mesmerised by the Cabaret scene in the first series : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pzhP2b6gLfc .
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 6,743

    Sean_F said:

    Penddu2 said:

    Latest Sunday Times polling shows support for Welsh Independence approaching 40%
    http://redirect.viglink.com/?key=71fe2139a887ad501313cd8cce3053c5&subId=3414711&u=https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/7lxb647ksn/SundayTimes_StateOfTheUnion_220819%20%28Wales%29.pdf
    Wait till those energy bills start landing in the letter boxes...

    That looks more like 31% to me.
    It's remarkable how indifferent people are, right across GB, to the fate of Northern Ireland.
    Is it really? Surrendering to the IRA was unthinkable but post partition have the English ever been that interested in the place? People rarely go there, it's seen as culturally alien and the likes of Trimble and Hume have been replaced by the DUP and Sinn Fein. A party that supported the armed struggle and one that demands a bung to support the government. If English people couldn't really get worked up about Scottish independence it's hardly surprising they don't give much thought to Ulster.
    I don't think people are indifferent; it's that nothing can be achieved until there is move towards the only possible solutions. It is obvious that the island needs to be one state.

    Nothing the rest of the UK will help; and this is even more so now that the united intransigence of the UK, EU and RoI has made a dog's dinner of Brexit.

    Ideally the islands of Britain and Ireland would be a single (non confessional) state, but sadly that ship sailed a bit ago.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 35,822
    ohnotnow said:

    Anyway, the grim winter ahead has been cheered up for me with news of series 4 of Babylon Berlin, a tale of hyper inflation, street fighting, and the rise of Fascism.

    https://youtu.be/cWnCxbdpqK4

    Ohhhh! That's great! I've loved this so far - the mix of politics, crime (at all levels) and the desperate, consumptive poverty is wonderfully drawn. I'm still mesmerised by the Cabaret scene in the first series : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pzhP2b6gLfc .
    Yep, I love it, never thought I'd look forward to musical numbers so much. Series 3 dropped off a little, hopefully BB4 is back with a bang.

    Pedantry makes me note that German hyperinflation occured mainly in 1923, not 1930. I'll replace it with a Great Depression and mass unemployment.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,435

    Cyclefree said:

    Sean_F said:

    ydoethur said:

    Priti Patel set to be exiled to the back benches as Liz Truss plots cull of big beasts
    Home Secretary fights to save her job as leadership frontrunner plans shake-up of the Cabinet

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/08/26/priti-patel-set-exiled-back-benches-liz-truss-plots-cull-big/ (£££)

    The Telegraph is also not too keen on the career prospects of Grant Shapps, Mark Spencer, Greg Clark, George Eustice, Steve Barclay, Nigel Adams, Michael Gove, Dominic Raab, Alok Sharma and Rishi Sunak.

    There is no betting on the next Home Secretary that I can see, though I've not checked everywhere.

    Gove and Sunak have already said they won't serve under Truss. Raab is likely to be a third as he's a close ally of both although I haven't seen him say it aloud.

    Shapps is utterly unfit to be a minister: incompetent, arrogant and dishonest, including misleading the House. So I'm surprised Truss wouldn't want him. He might make her look almost up to the job.

    Patel should have gone long ago for similar reasons (for 'misleading the House' read 'bullying her staff').

    Barclay, Sharma and Spencer are hardly 'big beasts.'

    I am surprised about Eustice, even allowing for Truss' appalling lack of judgment. I think it unlikely she will find anyone better suited to his current role where as far as I can judge he's been quietly effective, and given the shitstorm about to engulf agriculture through enormous fuel and fertiliser bills coupled to the ongoing disruption of the new trading reality it really isn't a good moment for a change there. Perhaps he just dared to tell her to her face once that she was talking nonsense.
    JRM ought to be among those culled. He's a poor man's idea of what an aristocrat is (assuming the poor man has never met any aristocrats).
    JRM is not in any sense an aristocrat. A parody of an extra in Brideshead Revisited, maybe.
    He is a complete ar*e because the only thing that comes out of him is loads of shi...... :open_mouth:
    Shivalrous and courtly behaviour?
    His apparent politeness is little more than wrapping a dog t*rd in Xmas paper. Lovely on the outside but a horrible surprise results from closer inspection!
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,847
    F1: red flag in third practice.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 16,258
    algarkirk said:

    Sean_F said:

    Penddu2 said:

    Latest Sunday Times polling shows support for Welsh Independence approaching 40%
    http://redirect.viglink.com/?key=71fe2139a887ad501313cd8cce3053c5&subId=3414711&u=https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/7lxb647ksn/SundayTimes_StateOfTheUnion_220819%20%28Wales%29.pdf
    Wait till those energy bills start landing in the letter boxes...

    That looks more like 31% to me.
    It's remarkable how indifferent people are, right across GB, to the fate of Northern Ireland.
    Is it really? Surrendering to the IRA was unthinkable but post partition have the English ever been that interested in the place? People rarely go there, it's seen as culturally alien and the likes of Trimble and Hume have been replaced by the DUP and Sinn Fein. A party that supported the armed struggle and one that demands a bung to support the government. If English people couldn't really get worked up about Scottish independence it's hardly surprising they don't give much thought to Ulster.
    I don't think people are indifferent; it's that nothing can be achieved until there is move towards the only possible solutions. It is obvious that the island needs to be one state.

    Nothing the rest of the UK will help; and this is even more so now that the united intransigence of the UK, EU and RoI has made a dog's dinner of Brexit.

    Ideally the islands of Britain and Ireland would be a single (non confessional) state, but sadly that ship sailed a bit ago.
    I only have one strong view on NI - the govt should massively incentivise schools that have a broad mix of Catholics and Protestants. They should be the best funded state schools in the UK, and would be happy to pay for that from the rUK budget rather than NI budget.

    Other than that its devolved and up to them to sort it out really.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 877

    ohnotnow said:

    Anyway, the grim winter ahead has been cheered up for me with news of series 4 of Babylon Berlin, a tale of hyper inflation, street fighting, and the rise of Fascism.

    https://youtu.be/cWnCxbdpqK4

    Ohhhh! That's great! I've loved this so far - the mix of politics, crime (at all levels) and the desperate, consumptive poverty is wonderfully drawn. I'm still mesmerised by the Cabaret scene in the first series : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pzhP2b6gLfc .
    Yep, I love it, never thought I'd look forward to musical numbers so much. Series 3 dropped off a little, hopefully BB4 is back with a bang.

    Pedantry makes me note that German hyperinflation occured mainly in 1923, not 1930. I'll replace it with a Great Depression and mass unemployment.
    Yeah - series 3 felt a little muddled to me. Though thinking about it now - I think I watched it just after covid & lockdown hit, so could be my concentration wasn't quite upto it. Might start again from the beginning to refresh it all in time for S4.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 20,376
    pm215 said:

    pm215 said:

    which is why it's exciting that we're about the get a radically pro-growth PM. To want to grow Britain's economy, and grow it fast, is fast becoming heresy.

    I don't think it's heresy, I just don't believe anybody who claims to know how to do it. If it was was easy we'd already be doing it.
    'Peace, easy taxes, tolerable administration of justice' seems like a good place to start.
    Those are all good things. I have zero expectation that they will result in fast economic growth from our current starting point and am suspicious of anybody who believes they will.
    Given that rarely in Britain's history have the three ever been acheived in tandem, I'd say they're a good place to start. Very little credibility in claiming the problem is too complex for simple solutions when you haven't tried the simple solutions.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,847
    F1: it was actually 26 I backed Perez for the win. Going to hedge that at 5.4 on Betfair.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 20,376
    It seems John Redwood is looking for answers to the Winter crisis from his blog commentors - perhaps if he joins the Government they may filter through!

    'The immediate need is a further package of measures to cut the cost of energy by reducing energy taxes, and to provide some offset to the loss of spending power from the increase in gas and electricity prices. It needs to ensure those on low incomes are looked after. What would you like to see in that announcement?'
    https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2022/08/27/paying-for-energy/#comments
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 32,260
    Dura_Ace said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    How would nationalising energy make it cheaper?

    Because you don't have a capital owning class stealing surplus value. Basic Marxism.
    Which has never worked whenever it has been tried. ;)

    Mainly because those in power do much more stealing - and then run the interests incompetently.
    Petrol is 45p/L in Iran. NIOC is 100% state owned.
    Iran's economy and society is perhaps not the most optimal model for us to follow.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,847
    F1: pre-qualifying:
    https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2022/08/belgium-pre-qualifying-2022.html

    No tip but lots of news so worth reading for some of that.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 42,433
    algarkirk said:

    ClippP said:

    ClippP said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    @Steven_Swinford
    One senior ally of Truss thinks it’s over before it’s even begun

    ‘I think it’s beyond doable

    ‘The winter is going to be awful. If she does badly in the May election they will get rid of her

    ‘They are collectively insane, the party is on the point of meltdown’

    The Truss ally believes that supporters of Sunak will not accept defeat

    ‘It’s gone too far. The people who are backing Sunak will not lose easily.

    ‘Their own personal careers are more important than uniting the country

    ‘They will move against her’


    https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1563455722393722883

    Fortunately for Truss May did so badly in the 2019 local elections, getting just 28% NEV and with the Tories losing over 1000 council seats, the Tories might even make gains next May when those seats are next up
    Are you going to back Truss then ?
    Well obviously I will back her if she becomes Leader of the Party, even if I did not vote for her in the leadership campaign. As I have backed every Leader who has won the party leadership even if I did not vote for them since I joined the party in 1998
    But is she proves to be a disaster and there is a Conservative civil war, young HY? What then?
    Or if the Conservative Party finally splits, and the formally elected leader is the head of the smaller (losing) faction?
    As long as we have FPTP the 2 major parties will not have a major split. The motto of each is 'Remember the SDP'.

    Some of even remember the independent group for UK change, or whatever it was they called themselves from one week to the next. Their main platform being to do anything possible to avoid making the change the people had voted for.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 20,376
    edited August 2022

    It seems John Redwood is looking for answers to the Winter crisis from his blog commentors - perhaps if he joins the Government they may filter through!

    'The immediate need is a further package of measures to cut the cost of energy by reducing energy taxes, and to provide some offset to the loss of spending power from the increase in gas and electricity prices. It needs to ensure those on low incomes are looked after. What would you like to see in that announcement?'
    https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2022/08/27/paying-for-energy/#comments

    This is Reform UK's Winter policy, and I think it's probably the nearest to my own thoughts for now:



    Full policy deck here: https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2022/08/25/the-reform-partys-emergency-energy-plan/
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,147

    Sean_F said:

    Penddu2 said:

    Latest Sunday Times polling shows support for Welsh Independence approaching 40%
    http://redirect.viglink.com/?key=71fe2139a887ad501313cd8cce3053c5&subId=3414711&u=https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/7lxb647ksn/SundayTimes_StateOfTheUnion_220819%20%28Wales%29.pdf
    Wait till those energy bills start landing in the letter boxes...

    That looks more like 31% to me.
    It's remarkable how indifferent people are, right across GB, to the fate of Northern Ireland.
    Is it really? Surrendering to the IRA was unthinkable but post partition have the English ever been that interested in the place? People rarely go there, it's seen as culturally alien and the likes of Trimble and Hume have been replaced by the DUP and Sinn Fein. A party that supported the armed struggle and one that demands a bung to support the government. If English people couldn't really get worked up about Scottish independence it's hardly surprising they don't give much thought to Ulster.
    English people have never been that bothered about NI. It was only the threat of Protestants in Ulster to create an armed revolt and civil war if forced into the Irish Free State that led the UK government to agree to create NI in the first place. That is also why Antrim and Protestant majority parts of Down and Londonderry might still declare UDI rather than join the now Catholic majority parts of NI in the Irish Republic if NI in future decades ever voted to leave the UK
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 877

    It seems John Redwood is looking for answers to the Winter crisis from his blog commentors - perhaps if he joins the Government they may filter through!

    'The immediate need is a further package of measures to cut the cost of energy by reducing energy taxes, and to provide some offset to the loss of spending power from the increase in gas and electricity prices. It needs to ensure those on low incomes are looked after. What would you like to see in that announcement?'
    https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2022/08/27/paying-for-energy/#comments

    Wow - that comment section really is... quite something.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,147

    Foxy said:

    stodge said:


    I think that's a conspiracy theory. Taxation is at a 70-year high and there are plenty in the Conservative Party very unhappy about it. There'd be no point in the Conservatives if they were just offering higher taxation and spending like all the rest, and it wouldn't be good for balance in our political system either.

    The bit they're missing is that lowering taxation is about putting more money back in people's pockets but when energy prices are this high it effectively acts as a super-tax, and that's what should be tackled first.

    The notion of the Conservative Party being the slightly lesser of two high tax and spending social democratic parties isn't without some wry amusement as that's basically what it is in the era of Butskellism from 1945 to 1979.

    I don't anyone calling the political system unbalanced when over 85% regularly voted for Jack Johnson or John Jackson.

    I've no problem with Conservatives arguing for lower taxes - my problem is them failing to be honest about how the gap in the public finances caused by the loss of revenue is to be addressed.

    Presumably it's either a) lower taxes will stimulate economic growth which will in turn generate more tax receipts which will cover the gap, b) we will borrow to make up the shortfall or c) there will need to be cuts in public expenditure but we're too scared of the public response to be honest about which areas will be affected.

    I'd love to hear Truss or Kwarteng or any of the "true believers" tell me which option they believe is the one in the current situation.
    A and B.

    And Truss has said that. She's acknowledged her plan means more borrowing up-front, but then growth to pay for it.
    I believe that was Corbyns manifesto. Are we at the tragedy or the farce part of history yet?
    Borrowing more now to invest for the future is the best solution for the UK. Corbyn and Truss are two of the worst candidates ever presented by the major parties to implement such a policy though.
    Yebbut only one of them is going to be actually making a fcuk up of implementing said policy.
    Eventually the gerontocracy will lose control and whilst it wont be Corbyn, we shall suffer a Corbynite government as a reaction to the young being shafted for decades.
    Within 3 years we will have 2 members of Corbyn's Shadow Cabinet, Starmer and Rayner as PM and Deputy PM on current polls anyway
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 43,306
    @Schuldensuehner
    Good Morning from #Germany, which is heading toward an electricity crisis. The 1y ahead power price has skyrocketed to almost €1,000 per megawatt hour. The electricity price has risen by 720% ytd. Such increases will bankrupt many energy-intensive firms.


    https://twitter.com/Schuldensuehner/status/1563416712707710976
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 16,258

    It seems John Redwood is looking for answers to the Winter crisis from his blog commentors - perhaps if he joins the Government they may filter through!

    'The immediate need is a further package of measures to cut the cost of energy by reducing energy taxes, and to provide some offset to the loss of spending power from the increase in gas and electricity prices. It needs to ensure those on low incomes are looked after. What would you like to see in that announcement?'
    https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2022/08/27/paying-for-energy/#comments

    The comments below the line explain how Tory voters can think Truss is the answer....

    "Also CO2 is not a serious problem and even if the UK was net zero tomorrow it would make almost zero difference to the total world output and certainly zero difference to the climate."

    "in the days when we used to worry about real pollution, not carbon dioxide, I was told we needed the pollution from aircraft as a shield between us and the sun. Without it we would frazzle. Now that we have had a couple of years with hardly any flights, we are being told there is more heat, more drought, more floods. Do you think there is indeed a connection? The sky did seem very blue during the shutdown."

    "One of May’s last treacherous acts before she left office was net zero! Nothing to do with Putin."

    "Reported in the Telegraph today:- “Eco-conscious Duke flies to polo match on private jet" ....Just the polo match, the horses, stabling & horse transportation must use vast amounts fossil fuels. Still do as I say not as I do you stupid poor plebs!"

    "Another solution would be to cut council tax bills in half and sack half the useless staff. Also half the pay of ceo and director of services in councils, they are useless self serving fools."

    "I can’t remember where I read it, but it might have been Ben Habib. According to this article we cannot unilaterally drop net zero, because we signed up to it with the EU."
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 16,258
    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    stodge said:


    I think that's a conspiracy theory. Taxation is at a 70-year high and there are plenty in the Conservative Party very unhappy about it. There'd be no point in the Conservatives if they were just offering higher taxation and spending like all the rest, and it wouldn't be good for balance in our political system either.

    The bit they're missing is that lowering taxation is about putting more money back in people's pockets but when energy prices are this high it effectively acts as a super-tax, and that's what should be tackled first.

    The notion of the Conservative Party being the slightly lesser of two high tax and spending social democratic parties isn't without some wry amusement as that's basically what it is in the era of Butskellism from 1945 to 1979.

    I don't anyone calling the political system unbalanced when over 85% regularly voted for Jack Johnson or John Jackson.

    I've no problem with Conservatives arguing for lower taxes - my problem is them failing to be honest about how the gap in the public finances caused by the loss of revenue is to be addressed.

    Presumably it's either a) lower taxes will stimulate economic growth which will in turn generate more tax receipts which will cover the gap, b) we will borrow to make up the shortfall or c) there will need to be cuts in public expenditure but we're too scared of the public response to be honest about which areas will be affected.

    I'd love to hear Truss or Kwarteng or any of the "true believers" tell me which option they believe is the one in the current situation.
    A and B.

    And Truss has said that. She's acknowledged her plan means more borrowing up-front, but then growth to pay for it.
    I believe that was Corbyns manifesto. Are we at the tragedy or the farce part of history yet?
    Borrowing more now to invest for the future is the best solution for the UK. Corbyn and Truss are two of the worst candidates ever presented by the major parties to implement such a policy though.
    Yebbut only one of them is going to be actually making a fcuk up of implementing said policy.
    Eventually the gerontocracy will lose control and whilst it wont be Corbyn, we shall suffer a Corbynite government as a reaction to the young being shafted for decades.
    Within 3 years we will have 2 members of Corbyn's Shadow Cabinet, Starmer and Rayner as PM and Deputy PM on current polls anyway
    Neither is a Corbynite.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,147
    edited August 2022

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    stodge said:


    I think that's a conspiracy theory. Taxation is at a 70-year high and there are plenty in the Conservative Party very unhappy about it. There'd be no point in the Conservatives if they were just offering higher taxation and spending like all the rest, and it wouldn't be good for balance in our political system either.

    The bit they're missing is that lowering taxation is about putting more money back in people's pockets but when energy prices are this high it effectively acts as a super-tax, and that's what should be tackled first.

    The notion of the Conservative Party being the slightly lesser of two high tax and spending social democratic parties isn't without some wry amusement as that's basically what it is in the era of Butskellism from 1945 to 1979.

    I don't anyone calling the political system unbalanced when over 85% regularly voted for Jack Johnson or John Jackson.

    I've no problem with Conservatives arguing for lower taxes - my problem is them failing to be honest about how the gap in the public finances caused by the loss of revenue is to be addressed.

    Presumably it's either a) lower taxes will stimulate economic growth which will in turn generate more tax receipts which will cover the gap, b) we will borrow to make up the shortfall or c) there will need to be cuts in public expenditure but we're too scared of the public response to be honest about which areas will be affected.

    I'd love to hear Truss or Kwarteng or any of the "true believers" tell me which option they believe is the one in the current situation.
    A and B.

    And Truss has said that. She's acknowledged her plan means more borrowing up-front, but then growth to pay for it.
    I believe that was Corbyns manifesto. Are we at the tragedy or the farce part of history yet?
    Borrowing more now to invest for the future is the best solution for the UK. Corbyn and Truss are two of the worst candidates ever presented by the major parties to implement such a policy though.
    Yebbut only one of them is going to be actually making a fcuk up of implementing said policy.
    Eventually the gerontocracy will lose control and whilst it wont be Corbyn, we shall suffer a Corbynite government as a reaction to the young being shafted for decades.
    Within 3 years we will have 2 members of Corbyn's Shadow Cabinet, Starmer and Rayner as PM and Deputy PM on current polls anyway
    Neither is a Corbynite.
    Rayner is, just a bit more of a patriot
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,393
    "David Dimbleby criticises Emily Maitlis over Cummings ‘polemic’

    Veteran broadcaster says monologue about Dominic Cummings’ lockdown breach should have been phrased as questions"

    https://www.theguardian.com/media/2022/aug/27/david-dimbleby-defends-bbc-rebuke-of-emily-maitlis-newsnight-polemic
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 20,376
    ohnotnow said:

    It seems John Redwood is looking for answers to the Winter crisis from his blog commentors - perhaps if he joins the Government they may filter through!

    'The immediate need is a further package of measures to cut the cost of energy by reducing energy taxes, and to provide some offset to the loss of spending power from the increase in gas and electricity prices. It needs to ensure those on low incomes are looked after. What would you like to see in that announcement?'
    https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2022/08/27/paying-for-energy/#comments

    Wow - that comment section really is... quite something.
    What do you think they'd make of this comments section? :lol:
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 16,258

    ohnotnow said:

    It seems John Redwood is looking for answers to the Winter crisis from his blog commentors - perhaps if he joins the Government they may filter through!

    'The immediate need is a further package of measures to cut the cost of energy by reducing energy taxes, and to provide some offset to the loss of spending power from the increase in gas and electricity prices. It needs to ensure those on low incomes are looked after. What would you like to see in that announcement?'
    https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2022/08/27/paying-for-energy/#comments

    Wow - that comment section really is... quite something.
    What do you think they'd make of this comments section? :lol:
    They would get frazzled and probably try to disinfect their screens with bleach.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 5,248
    algarkirk said:

    Sean_F said:

    Penddu2 said:

    Latest Sunday Times polling shows support for Welsh Independence approaching 40%
    http://redirect.viglink.com/?key=71fe2139a887ad501313cd8cce3053c5&subId=3414711&u=https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/7lxb647ksn/SundayTimes_StateOfTheUnion_220819%20%28Wales%29.pdf
    Wait till those energy bills start landing in the letter boxes...

    That looks more like 31% to me.
    It's remarkable how indifferent people are, right across GB, to the fate of Northern Ireland.
    Is it really? Surrendering to the IRA was unthinkable but post partition have the English ever been that interested in the place? People rarely go there, it's seen as culturally alien and the likes of Trimble and Hume have been replaced by the DUP and Sinn Fein. A party that supported the armed struggle and one that demands a bung to support the government. If English people couldn't really get worked up about Scottish independence it's hardly surprising they don't give much thought to Ulster.
    I don't think people are indifferent; it's that nothing can be achieved until there is move towards the only possible solutions. It is obvious that the island needs to be one state.

    Nothing the rest of the UK will help; and this is even more so now that the united intransigence of the UK, EU and RoI has made a dog's dinner of Brexit.

    Ideally the islands of Britain and Ireland would be a single (non confessional) state, but sadly that ship sailed a bit ago.
    In other words, unionism. Yes, that ship sailed when one of the islands orchestrated a famine in the other island, and indeed only one passenger was there consensually.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 17,547

    It seems John Redwood is looking for answers to the Winter crisis from his blog commentors - perhaps if he joins the Government they may filter through!

    'The immediate need is a further package of measures to cut the cost of energy by reducing energy taxes, and to provide some offset to the loss of spending power from the increase in gas and electricity prices. It needs to ensure those on low incomes are looked after. What would you like to see in that announcement?'
    https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2022/08/27/paying-for-energy/#comments

    The comments below the line explain how Tory voters can think Truss is the answer....

    "Also CO2 is not a serious problem and even if the UK was net zero tomorrow it would make almost zero difference to the total world output and certainly zero difference to the climate."

    "in the days when we used to worry about real pollution, not carbon dioxide, I was told we needed the pollution from aircraft as a shield between us and the sun. Without it we would frazzle. Now that we have had a couple of years with hardly any flights, we are being told there is more heat, more drought, more floods. Do you think there is indeed a connection? The sky did seem very blue during the shutdown."

    "One of May’s last treacherous acts before she left office was net zero! Nothing to do with Putin."

    "Reported in the Telegraph today:- “Eco-conscious Duke flies to polo match on private jet" ....Just the polo match, the horses, stabling & horse transportation must use vast amounts fossil fuels. Still do as I say not as I do you stupid poor plebs!"

    "Another solution would be to cut council tax bills in half and sack half the useless staff. Also half the pay of ceo and director of services in councils, they are useless self serving fools."

    "I can’t remember where I read it, but it might have been Ben Habib. According to this article we cannot unilaterally drop net zero, because we signed up to it with the EU."
    The lunatics took over the asylum some time ago. The imminent administration is merely a switch to the night shift.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,393
    ohnotnow said:

    It seems John Redwood is looking for answers to the Winter crisis from his blog commentors - perhaps if he joins the Government they may filter through!

    'The immediate need is a further package of measures to cut the cost of energy by reducing energy taxes, and to provide some offset to the loss of spending power from the increase in gas and electricity prices. It needs to ensure those on low incomes are looked after. What would you like to see in that announcement?'
    https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2022/08/27/paying-for-energy/#comments

    Wow - that comment section really is... quite something.
    Nothing remarkable, just typical Tory viewpoints.
  • pingping Posts: 3,282
    edited August 2022
    I’m rather surprised UK/European equities haven’t decoupled somewhat further from the US in recent days, as the European energy futures bumped up significantly.

    On Friday morning, I sold my ftse tracker. I think US equities are a better bet right now, especially after Friday’s discount. Probably still overpriced, but less so than UK/Euro stocks if we’re headed into a recession that will hit UK/Europe a lot harder than the US.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 877

    ohnotnow said:

    It seems John Redwood is looking for answers to the Winter crisis from his blog commentors - perhaps if he joins the Government they may filter through!

    'The immediate need is a further package of measures to cut the cost of energy by reducing energy taxes, and to provide some offset to the loss of spending power from the increase in gas and electricity prices. It needs to ensure those on low incomes are looked after. What would you like to see in that announcement?'
    https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2022/08/27/paying-for-energy/#comments

    Wow - that comment section really is... quite something.
    What do you think they'd make of this comments section? :lol:
    The same as they seem to make of everything else - that it's a crazy leftist/wokeist/net-zero-zealot den of iniquity. Whether Leon was posting or not!
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 16,258
    Andy_JS said:

    ohnotnow said:

    It seems John Redwood is looking for answers to the Winter crisis from his blog commentors - perhaps if he joins the Government they may filter through!

    'The immediate need is a further package of measures to cut the cost of energy by reducing energy taxes, and to provide some offset to the loss of spending power from the increase in gas and electricity prices. It needs to ensure those on low incomes are looked after. What would you like to see in that announcement?'
    https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2022/08/27/paying-for-energy/#comments

    Wow - that comment section really is... quite something.
    Nothing remarkable, just typical Tory viewpoints.
    Really? It is a viewpoint that we would frazzle without pollution from aircraft? What did they think happened before aircraft were invented?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 11,219
    Andy_JS said:

    ohnotnow said:

    It seems John Redwood is looking for answers to the Winter crisis from his blog commentors - perhaps if he joins the Government they may filter through!

    'The immediate need is a further package of measures to cut the cost of energy by reducing energy taxes, and to provide some offset to the loss of spending power from the increase in gas and electricity prices. It needs to ensure those on low incomes are looked after. What would you like to see in that announcement?'
    https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2022/08/27/paying-for-energy/#comments

    Wow - that comment section really is... quite something.
    Nothing remarkable, just typical Tory viewpoints.
    That's the problem though - this extreme of zealots now effectively runs the country.

    It's clearly time to let the Conservative Party die - it's had a good run and done some great things for the country but it's clearly outlived its usefulness and has become an appalling embarrassment.

    Fold the tents, wind the party up and after a couple of decades it'll be time for a modern forward-thinking constructive movement of the centre-right which will no doubt do very well.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 18,687
    edited August 2022
    @Casino_Royale genuine question, what does "taxation is at a 70-year high" actually mean? Total tax take? Average net/gross difference across the whole workforce? Adjusted for inflation?

    Without context, it means very little.
  • It seems John Redwood is looking for answers to the Winter crisis from his blog commentors - perhaps if he joins the Government they may filter through!

    'The immediate need is a further package of measures to cut the cost of energy by reducing energy taxes, and to provide some offset to the loss of spending power from the increase in gas and electricity prices. It needs to ensure those on low incomes are looked after. What would you like to see in that announcement?'
    https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2022/08/27/paying-for-energy/#comments

    The comments below the line explain how Tory voters can think Truss is the answer....

    "Also CO2 is not a serious problem and even if the UK was net zero tomorrow it would make almost zero difference to the total world output and certainly zero difference to the climate."

    "in the days when we used to worry about real pollution, not carbon dioxide, I was told we needed the pollution from aircraft as a shield between us and the sun. Without it we would frazzle. Now that we have had a couple of years with hardly any flights, we are being told there is more heat, more drought, more floods. Do you think there is indeed a connection? The sky did seem very blue during the shutdown."

    "One of May’s last treacherous acts before she left office was net zero! Nothing to do with Putin."

    "Reported in the Telegraph today:- “Eco-conscious Duke flies to polo match on private jet" ....Just the polo match, the horses, stabling & horse transportation must use vast amounts fossil fuels. Still do as I say not as I do you stupid poor plebs!"

    "Another solution would be to cut council tax bills in half and sack half the useless staff. Also half the pay of ceo and director of services in councils, they are useless self serving fools."

    "I can’t remember where I read it, but it might have been Ben Habib. According to this article we cannot unilaterally drop net zero, because we signed up to it with the EU."
    The lunatics took over the asylum some time ago. The imminent administration is merely a switch to the night shift.
    That's a bad thing, right?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,107

    @Casino_Royale genuine question, what does "taxation is at a 70-year high" actually mean? Total tax take? Average net/gross difference across the whole workforce? Adjusted for inflation?

    Without context, it means very little.

    Percentage of GDP: https://www.statista.com/chart/24330/uk-tax-burden-as-share-gdp-timeline/
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,107
    stodge said:

    Andy_JS said:

    ohnotnow said:

    It seems John Redwood is looking for answers to the Winter crisis from his blog commentors - perhaps if he joins the Government they may filter through!

    'The immediate need is a further package of measures to cut the cost of energy by reducing energy taxes, and to provide some offset to the loss of spending power from the increase in gas and electricity prices. It needs to ensure those on low incomes are looked after. What would you like to see in that announcement?'
    https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2022/08/27/paying-for-energy/#comments

    Wow - that comment section really is... quite something.
    Nothing remarkable, just typical Tory viewpoints.
    That's the problem though - this extreme of zealots now effectively runs the country.

    It's clearly time to let the Conservative Party die - it's had a good run and done some great things for the country but it's clearly outlived its usefulness and has become an appalling embarrassment.

    Fold the tents, wind the party up and after a couple of decades it'll be time for a modern forward-thinking constructive movement of the centre-right which will no doubt do very well.
    People who think airplane contrails were needed to prevent the Earth from overheating are running the country? :D
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,147
    stodge said:

    Andy_JS said:

    ohnotnow said:

    It seems John Redwood is looking for answers to the Winter crisis from his blog commentors - perhaps if he joins the Government they may filter through!

    'The immediate need is a further package of measures to cut the cost of energy by reducing energy taxes, and to provide some offset to the loss of spending power from the increase in gas and electricity prices. It needs to ensure those on low incomes are looked after. What would you like to see in that announcement?'
    https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2022/08/27/paying-for-energy/#comments

    Wow - that comment section really is... quite something.
    Nothing remarkable, just typical Tory viewpoints.
    That's the problem though - this extreme of zealots now effectively runs the country.

    It's clearly time to let the Conservative Party die - it's had a good run and done some great things for the country but it's clearly outlived its usefulness and has become an appalling embarrassment.

    Fold the tents, wind the party up and after a couple of decades it'll be time for a modern forward-thinking constructive movement of the centre-right which will no doubt do very well.
    If the Conservative Party died now you do realise its most likely replacement would be a Faragist party which would become the main party of the right instead?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 20,376

    It seems John Redwood is looking for answers to the Winter crisis from his blog commentors - perhaps if he joins the Government they may filter through!

    'The immediate need is a further package of measures to cut the cost of energy by reducing energy taxes, and to provide some offset to the loss of spending power from the increase in gas and electricity prices. It needs to ensure those on low incomes are looked after. What would you like to see in that announcement?'
    https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2022/08/27/paying-for-energy/#comments

    The comments below the line explain how Tory voters can think Truss is the answer....

    "Also CO2 is not a serious problem and even if the UK was net zero tomorrow it would make almost zero difference to the total world output and certainly zero difference to the climate."

    "in the days when we used to worry about real pollution, not carbon dioxide, I was told we needed the pollution from aircraft as a shield between us and the sun. Without it we would frazzle. Now that we have had a couple of years with hardly any flights, we are being told there is more heat, more drought, more floods. Do you think there is indeed a connection? The sky did seem very blue during the shutdown."

    "One of May’s last treacherous acts before she left office was net zero! Nothing to do with Putin."

    "Reported in the Telegraph today:- “Eco-conscious Duke flies to polo match on private jet" ....Just the polo match, the horses, stabling & horse transportation must use vast amounts fossil fuels. Still do as I say not as I do you stupid poor plebs!"

    "Another solution would be to cut council tax bills in half and sack half the useless staff. Also half the pay of ceo and director of services in councils, they are useless self serving fools."

    "I can’t remember where I read it, but it might have been Ben Habib. According to this article we cannot unilaterally drop net zero, because we signed up to it with the EU."
    The lunatics took over the asylum some time ago. The imminent administration is merely a switch to the night shift.
    I tend to think the real lunatics are the ones who got us in to this mess, which has been simmering on the stove for a lot longer than Truss or even Bojo.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 18,687
    RobD said:

    @Casino_Royale genuine question, what does "taxation is at a 70-year high" actually mean? Total tax take? Average net/gross difference across the whole workforce? Adjusted for inflation?

    Without context, it means very little.

    Percentage of GDP: https://www.statista.com/chart/24330/uk-tax-burden-as-share-gdp-timeline/
    Right ok. So why would a voter care about the tax % of GDP?
  • pm215pm215 Posts: 550
    Andy_JS said:

    "Veteran broadcaster says monologue about Dominic Cummings’ lockdown breach should have been phrased as questions"

    What is this, a game of Jeopardy? Whatever the merits or otherwise of it, merely rephrasing into question form isn't a particularly meaningful change.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 48,985

    @Casino_Royale genuine question, what does "taxation is at a 70-year high" actually mean? Total tax take? Average net/gross difference across the whole workforce? Adjusted for inflation?

    Without context, it means very little.

    It's a % as a proportion of GDP.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 16,258
    pm215 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Veteran broadcaster says monologue about Dominic Cummings’ lockdown breach should have been phrased as questions"

    What is this, a game of Jeopardy? Whatever the merits or otherwise of it, merely rephrasing into question form isn't a particularly meaningful change.
    Both their approaches are fine, just different. Leave it to the journalists and keep the politicos out as much as possible.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,107
    .

    RobD said:

    @Casino_Royale genuine question, what does "taxation is at a 70-year high" actually mean? Total tax take? Average net/gross difference across the whole workforce? Adjusted for inflation?

    Without context, it means very little.

    Percentage of GDP: https://www.statista.com/chart/24330/uk-tax-burden-as-share-gdp-timeline/
    Right ok. So why would a voter care about the tax % of GDP?
    Would they care about it if tax was close to 100% of GDP?
  • I believe there is approximately eight trillion quid of housing wealth in this country.

    5% of that is £400bn.

    A government can do a lot with that with the money to be recouped when property is sold.

    It might not be popular with many but neither are price rises and tax rises.

    The problem with taxing when people move is that it harms mobility and does nothing to raise money from people who buy homes to let etc

    A 1% annual tax on housing wealth would at that level raise approximately £80bn at that level. Enough to abolish Council Tax and Stamp Duty with tens of billions more leftover.

    It would also mean that if people inflate their housing value, eg by NIMBYism, then their tax goes up automatically accordingly. If house prices remain affordable, then taxes go down accordingly. Since NIMBYism etc is an externality this is an entirely appropriate tax mechanism, just like taxing pollution.
    I think a 1% property wealth tax would be significantly higher than council tax.

    The advantage of taking the tax on the sale is that the seller has at that point the means to pay it.

    Of course it would be possible to have an annual property wealth tax on all property owned apart from a single personal home.
    On a personal level or a nationwide one? Nationally it would be which is why I said could abolish Council Tax, Stamp Duty and more if done. On an individual level, people with portfolios certainly would pay more, people who don't own a property wouldn't pay anything, and people with cheap properties would pay about the same.

    If it were up to me I'd abolish Council Tax, Stamp Duty and National Insurance (both forms) and merge things into 1x Land Tax and 1x Income Tax.

    Taxing land is better than taxing employment.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 20,376
    stodge said:

    Andy_JS said:

    ohnotnow said:

    It seems John Redwood is looking for answers to the Winter crisis from his blog commentors - perhaps if he joins the Government they may filter through!

    'The immediate need is a further package of measures to cut the cost of energy by reducing energy taxes, and to provide some offset to the loss of spending power from the increase in gas and electricity prices. It needs to ensure those on low incomes are looked after. What would you like to see in that announcement?'
    https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2022/08/27/paying-for-energy/#comments

    Wow - that comment section really is... quite something.
    Nothing remarkable, just typical Tory viewpoints.
    That's the problem though - this extreme of zealots now effectively runs the country.

    It's clearly time to let the Conservative Party die - it's had a good run and done some great things for the country but it's clearly outlived its usefulness and has become an appalling embarrassment.

    Fold the tents, wind the party up and after a couple of decades it'll be time for a modern forward-thinking constructive movement of the centre-right which will no doubt do very well.
    'Forward-thinking' tends to translate to 'People I agree with' in my experience. Given that for much of the last 20 years this country has had 'forward thinking and constructive' Governments, and even post-Brexit, the biggest challenge to the march of progressivism has been Jacob Rees Mogg leaving civil servants some notes, perhaps it's time to let the zealots have at it.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 18,687
    edited August 2022
    RobD said:

    .

    RobD said:

    @Casino_Royale genuine question, what does "taxation is at a 70-year high" actually mean? Total tax take? Average net/gross difference across the whole workforce? Adjusted for inflation?

    Without context, it means very little.

    Percentage of GDP: https://www.statista.com/chart/24330/uk-tax-burden-as-share-gdp-timeline/
    Right ok. So why would a voter care about the tax % of GDP?
    Would they care about it if tax was close to 100% of GDP?
    I mean that’s what I’m asking you. I want to know the reasons why people should care.
  • pm215pm215 Posts: 550

    pm215 said:

    'Peace, easy taxes, tolerable administration of justice' seems like a good place to start.

    Those are all good things. I have zero expectation that they will result in fast economic growth from our current starting point and am suspicious of anybody who believes they will.
    Given that rarely in Britain's history have the three ever been acheived in tandem, I'd say they're a good place to start. Very little credibility in claiming the problem is too complex for simple solutions when you haven't tried the simple solutions.
    We've had peace and tolerable administration of justice for long stretches of much of the post-war period. And there's not much credibility either in claiming that simple solutions will have conveniently beneficial effects on such an obviously massive and complex system as the economy.

  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,435

    Sean_F said:

    Penddu2 said:

    Latest Sunday Times polling shows support for Welsh Independence approaching 40%
    http://redirect.viglink.com/?key=71fe2139a887ad501313cd8cce3053c5&subId=3414711&u=https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/7lxb647ksn/SundayTimes_StateOfTheUnion_220819%20%28Wales%29.pdf
    Wait till those energy bills start landing in the letter boxes...

    That looks more like 31% to me.
    It's remarkable how indifferent people are, right across GB, to the fate of Northern Ireland.
    I suspect, although as you say there is very little discussion of the subject, most people here are simply waiting for it to reunite with the rest of Ireland. Whether that will be overall to the gain of most people in Northern Ireland is a different matter; as a Remainer I of course believe that Joy will be unrestrained, but I recognise that a number of people in Northern Ireland will regret losing the link with the Crown.
    That's Remainerism all over really, isn't it?

    Loyalty to the EU is greater than loyalty to the Crown.

    And they wonder why they anger Leavers.
    I thought after I'd posted that irony doesn't come across well!
    I sort of know what you mean, at some level.

    Young people are ideologically internationalist, global-citizen orientated and "progressive". So the vibe is important.

    Right now, a reunited Ireland, independent Scotland and Rejoining the EU all talk to that and are achingly right-on, whilst the UK and its heritage seems a bit fuddy-duddyl, so they support those causes.

    But, many of them do so instinctively and indirectly, which means those sentiments could change and in unpredictable ways.
    Fair comment. Instinct is a funny thing sometimes; not necessarily logical. A reunited Ireland sounds like a great idea but there are enormous practical difficulties, not least entrenched views of some of the population in the north.
    The problem for anyone who is Northern Irish, Welsh or Scottish is that as they go through life there are plenty of pointers (and comments) that they will forever be 2nd class because they were not born English.

    Diehard NI Unionists are "more British than the British" but that does remove the stigma and, deep down, they know that too...
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 2,782
    RobD said:

    .

    RobD said:

    @Casino_Royale genuine question, what does "taxation is at a 70-year high" actually mean? Total tax take? Average net/gross difference across the whole workforce? Adjusted for inflation?

    Without context, it means very little.

    Percentage of GDP: https://www.statista.com/chart/24330/uk-tax-burden-as-share-gdp-timeline/
    Right ok. So why would a voter care about the tax % of GDP?
    Would they care about it if tax was close to 100% of GDP?
    I think the more interesting thing is share of GDP that is government spending. I was quite surprised that we are roughly the same as Sweden (which I assumed would be much larger), and significantly lower than France.

    I think we probably need to weight it for demographics, though. It doesn't really say much about political philosophy unless you take account of that.

    https://data.oecd.org/gga/general-government-spending.htm
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 20,376
    pm215 said:

    pm215 said:

    'Peace, easy taxes, tolerable administration of justice' seems like a good place to start.

    Those are all good things. I have zero expectation that they will result in fast economic growth from our current starting point and am suspicious of anybody who believes they will.
    Given that rarely in Britain's history have the three ever been acheived in tandem, I'd say they're a good place to start. Very little credibility in claiming the problem is too complex for simple solutions when you haven't tried the simple solutions.
    We've had peace and tolerable administration of justice for long stretches of much of the post-war period. And there's not much credibility either in claiming that simple solutions will have conveniently beneficial effects on such an obviously massive and complex system as the economy.

    And not low taxes.
  • algarkirk said:

    Sean_F said:

    Penddu2 said:

    Latest Sunday Times polling shows support for Welsh Independence approaching 40%
    http://redirect.viglink.com/?key=71fe2139a887ad501313cd8cce3053c5&subId=3414711&u=https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/7lxb647ksn/SundayTimes_StateOfTheUnion_220819%20%28Wales%29.pdf
    Wait till those energy bills start landing in the letter boxes...

    That looks more like 31% to me.
    It's remarkable how indifferent people are, right across GB, to the fate of Northern Ireland.
    Is it really? Surrendering to the IRA was unthinkable but post partition have the English ever been that interested in the place? People rarely go there, it's seen as culturally alien and the likes of Trimble and Hume have been replaced by the DUP and Sinn Fein. A party that supported the armed struggle and one that demands a bung to support the government. If English people couldn't really get worked up about Scottish independence it's hardly surprising they don't give much thought to Ulster.
    I don't think people are indifferent; it's that nothing can be achieved until there is move towards the only possible solutions. It is obvious that the island needs to be one state.

    Nothing the rest of the UK will help; and this is even more so now that the united intransigence of the UK, EU and RoI has made a dog's dinner of Brexit.

    Ideally the islands of Britain and Ireland would be a single (non confessional) state, but sadly that ship sailed a bit ago.
    I only have one strong view on NI - the govt should massively incentivise schools that have a broad mix of Catholics and Protestants. They should be the best funded state schools in the UK, and would be happy to pay for that from the rUK budget rather than NI budget.

    Other than that its devolved and up to them to sort it out really.
    I have one strong view on NI - abolish it.

    Works for National Insurance, or Northern Ireland.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 9,061

    stodge said:

    Andy_JS said:

    ohnotnow said:

    It seems John Redwood is looking for answers to the Winter crisis from his blog commentors - perhaps if he joins the Government they may filter through!

    'The immediate need is a further package of measures to cut the cost of energy by reducing energy taxes, and to provide some offset to the loss of spending power from the increase in gas and electricity prices. It needs to ensure those on low incomes are looked after. What would you like to see in that announcement?'
    https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2022/08/27/paying-for-energy/#comments

    Wow - that comment section really is... quite something.
    Nothing remarkable, just typical Tory viewpoints.
    That's the problem though - this extreme of zealots now effectively runs the country.

    It's clearly time to let the Conservative Party die - it's had a good run and done some great things for the country but it's clearly outlived its usefulness and has become an appalling embarrassment.

    Fold the tents, wind the party up and after a couple of decades it'll be time for a modern forward-thinking constructive movement of the centre-right which will no doubt do very well.
    'Forward-thinking' tends to translate to 'People I agree with' in my experience. Given that for much of the last 20 years this country has had 'forward thinking and constructive' Governments, and even post-Brexit, the biggest challenge to the march of progressivism has been Jacob Rees Mogg leaving civil servants some notes, perhaps it's time to let the zealots have at it.
    No matter how badly these idiots screw things up, there are going to be people applauding and calling for more of the same.
This discussion has been closed.