Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

I’m beginning to be concerned about my CON poll lead bet – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited August 28 in General
imageI’m beginning to be concerned about my CON poll lead bet – politicalbetting.com

As those who visit the site regularly will know I have a largish bet on the Tories recording a poll lead during September. My reasoning has always been that the new Conservative leader, which we will know on September 6th, is likely to see something of a bounce for the party in the period immediately afterwards.

Read the full story here

«1345678

Comments

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,746
    edited August 23
    Hold on Mike didn't you only place this bet a few days ago :D ?

    Or am I misremembering. Are you thinking of trading out ?
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,336
    edited August 23
    First. I think you are right to be worried, Mike. There has been lots of publicity for the Conservatives over the summer, but almost all of it has been negative. This, of course, is how Conservatives campaign against others - now they are doing the same to themselves.

    I don't remember that Labour internal elections were that damaging. And still less the Lib Dem ones. The most savage comment that I remember from Lib/Lib Dem campaigns was when David Steel likened John Pardoe to Tigger, fighting with a tablecloth.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Warned you
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 21,494
    No chance of a Tory lead. Good chance of a Labour 20 point lead...
  • I was ahead of the curve again. If you’d all followed my betting advice since the end of last year you’d all have made a lot of money!
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 17,340
    Betfair next prime minister
    1.08 Liz Truss 93%
    13.5 Rishi Sunak 7%

    Next Conservative leader
    1.07 Liz Truss 93%
    13.5 Rishi Sunak 7%
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Nothing was happening in 2007. That's the thing. There was a whole summer of no news except Gordon flood visiting in wellies, and everyone being spirit of the blitz about it.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 17,679

    Betfair next prime minister
    1.08 Liz Truss 93%
    13.5 Rishi Sunak 7%

    Next Conservative leader
    1.07 Liz Truss 93%
    13.5 Rishi Sunak 7%

    Therefore 0% chance of an A380 crashing onto the next hustings venue half way through the debate.
  • Important thread:

    NEW: the collapse of emergency healthcare in England may be costing 500 lives every week, a close match for non-Covid excess deaths

    Let’s look at how we reach that conclusion, by taking a deep-dive into non-Covid excess mortality and its possible causes

    https://ft.com/content/f36c5daa-9c14-4a92-9136-19b26508b9d2


    https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1562004612172873728?s=20&t=HXvwp-7KD_d60f8CopIakw

    Entirely consistent with recent personal experience (the A&E wait, not the death). In my case 24h from accident to ward admission. After that they got their skates on, but it was a grim start.

    That's one way to cut waiting lists. /cynic
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 17,340
    Three hustings left: two this week; one next.

    Tonight, 7pm, Birmingham.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4XSCXoS0ISQ (Times Radio)
    (Other downstreaming links will become available)
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 3,295
    All the noises coming out of the Truss camp are that they're not going to offer further support for the ludicrous energy bills that are about to ruin people's lives and devastate businesses this winter.

    It's not just people choosing between heating or eating, or even pensioners freezing in their homes - although that will be a thing - it's the sheer number of businesses that are going to go to the wall.

    Would the last person still intending to vote Conservative by January please turn out the (very expensive to run) lights?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 57,127

    Important thread:

    NEW: the collapse of emergency healthcare in England may be costing 500 lives every week, a close match for non-Covid excess deaths

    Let’s look at how we reach that conclusion, by taking a deep-dive into non-Covid excess mortality and its possible causes

    https://ft.com/content/f36c5daa-9c14-4a92-9136-19b26508b9d2


    https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1562004612172873728?s=20&t=HXvwp-7KD_d60f8CopIakw

    Entirely consistent with recent personal experience (the A&E wait, not the death). In my case 24h from accident to ward admission. After that they got their skates on, but it was a grim start.

    That's one way to cut waiting lists. /cynic
    I didn’t even wait for an ambulance - (2h minimum, in a city centre) - friends took me by taxi).

  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 17,679

    Three hustings left: two this week; one next.

    Tonight, 7pm, Birmingham.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4XSCXoS0ISQ (Times Radio)
    (Other downstreaming links will become available)

    Is the venue on the flight path from the airport?
  • pingping Posts: 3,191
    edited August 23

    Three hustings left: two this week; one next.

    Tonight, 7pm, Birmingham.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4XSCXoS0ISQ (Times Radio)
    (Other downstreaming links will become available)

    Is the venue on the flight path from the airport?
    Yes. It’s in the NEC, right next to BHX.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 10,394
    I still think Truss will get a bounce once elected, especially as the chance of her not rolling out a substantial package of help with energy bills must be close to zero. However, if Labour's lead continues to increase in the meantime then there is a risk that the bounce only reduces that Labour lead rather than putting the Tories in front.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 8,571
    ON TOPIC. Too right Mike. Your bet is under pressure.

    It was based on history? In history British Politics was smarter - PMs didn’t surround themselves with drooling sycophants instead packed their governments with the best talent they could, nor did PMs purge all their parties best moderates in one fell power grab.

    So historically this country has never sent Bubble from AbFab to the Palace to touch hands before.

    As you mention that Gordon Brown moment “Election? No I wasn’t planning an election”, Starmer coming out with a freeze voters of all parties loved, and Team Truss saying no, tax cuts instead, is worked like that old Gordon Brown moment?

    Is the moment Team Truss refused Starmer’s Plan and insisted on tax cuts instead, the moment she killed off your bet? And maybe a lot more besides.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,322
    kyf_100 said:

    All the noises coming out of the Truss camp are that they're not going to offer further support for the ludicrous energy bills that are about to ruin people's lives and devastate businesses this winter.

    It's not just people choosing between heating or eating, or even pensioners freezing in their homes - although that will be a thing - it's the sheer number of businesses that are going to go to the wall.

    Would the last person still intending to vote Conservative by January please turn out the (very expensive to run) lights?

    The lights will already be out thanks to the power cuts
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,043
    edited August 23
    I expect Truss to get a small bounce buy it may no longer be enough to take the lead. Even RedfieldWilton has Truss now trailing Starmer by 2% as preferred PM. Truss is also campaigning as Boris in a skirt to win Tory members, so there would not be the impression of a change of government as there was when Major replaced Thatcher and dumped the poll tax, Brown replaced Blair and withdrew troops from Iraq or Boris replaced May and pushed to get Brexit done at all costs
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 10,394

    Important thread:

    NEW: the collapse of emergency healthcare in England may be costing 500 lives every week, a close match for non-Covid excess deaths

    Let’s look at how we reach that conclusion, by taking a deep-dive into non-Covid excess mortality and its possible causes

    https://ft.com/content/f36c5daa-9c14-4a92-9136-19b26508b9d2


    https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1562004612172873728?s=20&t=HXvwp-7KD_d60f8CopIakw

    Entirely consistent with recent personal experience (the A&E wait, not the death). In my case 24h from accident to ward admission. After that they got their skates on, but it was a grim start.

    If we have a cold winter with a significant number of pensioners not putting on their heating then the NHS will collapse.
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,336

    Important thread:

    NEW: the collapse of emergency healthcare in England may be costing 500 lives every week, a close match for non-Covid excess deaths

    Let’s look at how we reach that conclusion, by taking a deep-dive into non-Covid excess mortality and its possible causes

    https://ft.com/content/f36c5daa-9c14-4a92-9136-19b26508b9d2


    https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1562004612172873728?s=20&t=HXvwp-7KD_d60f8CopIakw

    Entirely consistent with recent personal experience (the A&E wait, not the death). In my case 24h from accident to ward admission. After that they got their skates on, but it was a grim start.

    Very sorry to hear that news, Ms Vance. Just one of the consequences of Conservative policy of course. Just what you voted for.

    I should like to apologise to you on behalf of the British Government. They are a bit busy at present with one thing and another, as I am sure you will understand.

    Heck! What am I doing? It should be young HY apologising, not me....
  • DriverDriver Posts: 2,160
    ClippP said:

    Important thread:

    NEW: the collapse of emergency healthcare in England may be costing 500 lives every week, a close match for non-Covid excess deaths

    Let’s look at how we reach that conclusion, by taking a deep-dive into non-Covid excess mortality and its possible causes

    https://ft.com/content/f36c5daa-9c14-4a92-9136-19b26508b9d2


    https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1562004612172873728?s=20&t=HXvwp-7KD_d60f8CopIakw

    Entirely consistent with recent personal experience (the A&E wait, not the death). In my case 24h from accident to ward admission. After that they got their skates on, but it was a grim start.

    Very sorry to hear that news, Ms Vance. Just one of the consequences of Conservative policy of course. Just what you voted for.

    I should like to apologise to you on behalf of the British Government. They are a bit busy at present with one thing and another, as I am sure you will understand.

    Heck! What am I doing? It should be young HY apologising, not me....
    I do hope you diodn't support lockdown.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 23,148
    edited August 23
    Thanks for the advice re Daughter.

    She works long hours in a new full-time job. She is still in her probationary period. She literally does not have time to sit in the receptionist's office to get information the surgery has promised her.

    If the matter is urgent they should be pulling their finger out to tell her. If she gets no joy today, I will get a letter from her authorising me to receive the information and go and sit there all day if I have to to get it out of them. Though I should not have to do this. Her health is a private matter and it is absurd that we need to go through this rigmarole.

    The surgery seems to have the attitude that patients have nothing else to do all day. Nor do they seem to realise that telling someone they need an "urgent referral" but then not telling them anything else is going to worry them like hell.

    Appalling.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,648
    edited August 23
    What actually happened in 2007 was a slight to moderate move from low single digit Tory leads to low single digit Labour leads at the outset, Brown got a double digit lead in one poll a month and a half after becoming PM then leads came back in to low single figures before a brief flurry of double digits a full 3 months after he became PM. So you've been 'influenced' foolishly, the bounces for May and Johnson were similarly modest initially before accelerating after 2 to 3 months. Lumping money on a sudden poll inversion in the 3 and a half weeks after the take over is 'brave'. Its not impossible but its more likely, if at all, in October.

    Edit - a broadly similar 2007, 2016 or 2019 pattern might see low single digit labour leads in September so you're hanging out for outliers. Youd probably have been fine but for the obvious 3 point swing in the last week
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 30,162
    kyf_100 said:

    All the noises coming out of the Truss camp are that they're not going to offer further support for the ludicrous energy bills that are about to ruin people's lives and devastate businesses this winter.

    It's not just people choosing between heating or eating, or even pensioners freezing in their homes - although that will be a thing - it's the sheer number of businesses that are going to go to the wall.

    Would the last person still intending to vote Conservative by January please turn out the (very expensive to run) lights?

    Special, informed sources were telling us that Sunak was not going to provide any financial support in lockdown. Up till the moment he stood up in Parliament to announce the furlough and other schemes.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 36,680
    Fpt @Cyclefree

    There is only one language that the NHS/GPs understand and it is not quietly waiting on the phone or for a call back.

    You need to threaten them with whatever is to hand. Complaint to the NHS or ombudsman. Or even the police.

    Not so long ago I stood in the middle of a hospital ward during the consultant's round and threatened to call the police if treatment was not forthcoming (for my mother). It forthcame.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 7,856

    The comparison is November 1990. Thatcha brought down by the ludicrous poll tax and her own sneering arrogance to her colleagues. Millions of punters with unpayable and unfair bills.

    Major got a bounce because he said "no more Poll Tax". What Truss is doing would have been like Major coming in having repeatedly and condescendingly said he doesn't believe in handouts and then refusing to intervene, telling people that they should get a better job or work harder to pay the bill.

    Kinnock would have been "awight" had that happened. As Starmer will be.

    Major got two Big Calls(TM) right.

    One was to scuttle the Poll Tax. To be fair, that wasn't rocket science- by November 1990 Maggie was about the only (but utterly formidable) Conservative who didn't want to do that.

    The other was to change the tone of the Premiership. More touchy-feely, less kicky-testes. That was enough to make the government look new. Importantly, Maggie's departure was enough to make both those points obvious and so the bounce happened when she went not when he arrived. Major's contribution was to Not Stuff It Up. Undertated.

    Truss's tone is Norfolk's third best Boris Johnson tribute act. (Norfolk's best BoJo tribute act is an actual scarecrow called Boris in a field just outside Walsingham.) And her only policy difference seems to be No Tax Rises. Without saying what spending will be cut to match, that is pure shysterdom. (Oh, and the effect of freezing thresholds, which will be massive, doesn't get talked about.)

    Truss ought to get a new leader bounce. Even Brown and May got bounces, and they were really poor politicians. But it is possible that Truss is even worse than them.
  • eekeek Posts: 21,808
    HYUFD said:

    I expect Truss to get a small bounce buy it may no longer be enough to take the lead. Even RedfieldWilton has Truss now trailing Starmer by 2% as preferred PM. Truss is also campaigning as Boris in a skirt to win Tory members, so there would not be the impression of a change of government as there was when Major replaced Thatcher and dumped the poll tax, Brown replaced Blair and withdrew troops from Iraq or Boris replaced May and pushed to get Brexit done at all costs

    Let's look at what is going to happen

    August 28th - new energy price cap
    September 5th - Truss becomes PM
    September 21st - a "budget" that offers nothing to those who cannot now afford both food and energy
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 29,179
    Cyclefree said:

    Thanks for the advice re Daughter.

    She works long hours in a new full-time job. She is still in her probationary period. She literally does not have time to sit in the receptionist's office to get information the surgery has promised her.

    If the matter is urgent they should be pulling their finger out to tell her. If she gets no joy today, I will get a letter from her authorising me to receive the information and go and sit there all day if I have to to get it out of them. Though I should not have to do this. Her health is a private matter and it is absurd that we need to go through this rigmarole.

    The surgery seems to have the attitude that patients have nothing else to do all day. Nor do they seem to realise that telling someone they need an "urgent referral" but then not telling them anything else is going to worry them like hell.

    Appalling.

    I think, Ms C., that too many surgeries have the attitude patients have nothing else to do all day! In a similar circumstance I was once told 'your health must come first' when suggesting that there were other things in my in my life which were important!
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,440

    kyf_100 said:

    All the noises coming out of the Truss camp are that they're not going to offer further support for the ludicrous energy bills that are about to ruin people's lives and devastate businesses this winter.

    It's not just people choosing between heating or eating, or even pensioners freezing in their homes - although that will be a thing - it's the sheer number of businesses that are going to go to the wall.

    Would the last person still intending to vote Conservative by January please turn out the (very expensive to run) lights?

    Special, informed sources were telling us that Sunak was not going to provide any financial support in lockdown. Up till the moment he stood up in Parliament to announce the furlough and other schemes.
    It also wouldn't make sense to signal to the market that the Govt are going to step in.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 10,451
    edited August 23
    kyf_100 said:

    All the noises coming out of the Truss camp are that they're not going to offer further support for the ludicrous energy bills that are about to ruin people's lives and devastate businesses this winter.

    Why wouldn't 'Bubble' (©️🌙🐇) do it?

    We now by know that she has zero principles beyond her own self-interest and it will be a political disaster if she doesn't. I don't see the case for her not giving everyone loads of money.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,648
    edited August 23
    Mortimer said:

    kyf_100 said:

    All the noises coming out of the Truss camp are that they're not going to offer further support for the ludicrous energy bills that are about to ruin people's lives and devastate businesses this winter.

    It's not just people choosing between heating or eating, or even pensioners freezing in their homes - although that will be a thing - it's the sheer number of businesses that are going to go to the wall.

    Would the last person still intending to vote Conservative by January please turn out the (very expensive to run) lights?

    Special, informed sources were telling us that Sunak was not going to provide any financial support in lockdown. Up till the moment he stood up in Parliament to announce the furlough and other schemes.
    It also wouldn't make sense to signal to the market that the Govt are going to step in.
    Politically shes probably going for the 'here comes the cavalry' headlines.
    We just have to hope the cavalry arent bringing smallpox riddled blankets
  • jamesdoylejamesdoyle Posts: 247
    Mortimer said:

    kyf_100 said:

    All the noises coming out of the Truss camp are that they're not going to offer further support for the ludicrous energy bills that are about to ruin people's lives and devastate businesses this winter.

    It's not just people choosing between heating or eating, or even pensioners freezing in their homes - although that will be a thing - it's the sheer number of businesses that are going to go to the wall.

    Would the last person still intending to vote Conservative by January please turn out the (very expensive to run) lights?

    Special, informed sources were telling us that Sunak was not going to provide any financial support in lockdown. Up till the moment he stood up in Parliament to announce the furlough and other schemes.
    It also wouldn't make sense to signal to the market that the Govt are going to step in.
    Yes, sending or not sending signals to the market is s much more important than telling voters that you're going to help them when they're in crisis.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,322
    Later peeps!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,591

    Important thread:

    NEW: the collapse of emergency healthcare in England may be costing 500 lives every week, a close match for non-Covid excess deaths

    Let’s look at how we reach that conclusion, by taking a deep-dive into non-Covid excess mortality and its possible causes

    https://ft.com/content/f36c5daa-9c14-4a92-9136-19b26508b9d2


    https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1562004612172873728?s=20&t=HXvwp-7KD_d60f8CopIakw

    Entirely consistent with recent personal experience (the A&E wait, not the death). In my case 24h from accident to ward admission. After that they got their skates on, but it was a grim start.

    If we have a cold winter with a significant number of pensioners not putting on their heating then the NHS will collapse.
    We have the nurses and junior doctors strikes to get through first.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 7,856
    Dura_Ace said:

    kyf_100 said:

    All the noises coming out of the Truss camp are that they're not going to offer further support for the ludicrous energy bills that are about to ruin people's lives and devastate businesses this winter.

    Why wouldn't 'Bubble' (©️🌙🐇) do it?

    We now by know that she has zero principles beyond her own self-interest and it will be a political disaster if she doesn't. I don't see the case for her not giving everyone loads of money.
    Partly, Truss does, at some level, believe all the libertarian stuff. Privatise the lamp posts, that sort of thing. Her case for remain was about how Brexit would reduce freedoms for individuals (and quite right too). She also believes in Liz Truss being Prime Minister, but the two pulls are in tension in a way that they weren't for (say) Boris. She really would rather help by cutting taxes, the only problem being that won't work.

    Second, my memory of the Covid experience was that it took a couple of goes to get there. There were some inadequate packages before the Big Bazooka. We've already seen the same on fuel bills (remember the £1000 loan to be repaid over five years?) If I had to guess, HMG will get there and not many people will freeze, but it will be a messy scramble.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 104,543
    Having analysed the details of the office’s energy bills this winter I officially declare the economy fucked.

    My employer is one of the fortunate ones who can take measures to avoid the cost but there’s lots that can’t and will fold.

    Those that try and ride it out will have to pass the cost to consumers, who have so much disposable income.

    Inflation, you are the Whore of Babylon.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,591
    edited August 23
    kyf_100 said:

    All the noises coming out of the Truss camp are that they're not going to offer further support for the ludicrous energy bills that are about to ruin people's lives and devastate businesses this winter.

    It's not just people choosing between heating or eating, or even pensioners freezing in their homes - although that will be a thing - it's the sheer number of businesses that are going to go to the wall.

    Would the last person still intending to vote Conservative by January please turn out the (very expensive to run) lights?

    One thing that maybe needed is a business furlough, perhaps after the Christmas break for a couple of months, where energy intensive businesses close until spring, with a bridging payment for owners and staff.

    1) it keeps these businesses going during the quiet season.

    2) it reduces energy demand at the critical period, freeing it up for domestic consumption.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,440

    Mortimer said:

    kyf_100 said:

    All the noises coming out of the Truss camp are that they're not going to offer further support for the ludicrous energy bills that are about to ruin people's lives and devastate businesses this winter.

    It's not just people choosing between heating or eating, or even pensioners freezing in their homes - although that will be a thing - it's the sheer number of businesses that are going to go to the wall.

    Would the last person still intending to vote Conservative by January please turn out the (very expensive to run) lights?

    Special, informed sources were telling us that Sunak was not going to provide any financial support in lockdown. Up till the moment he stood up in Parliament to announce the furlough and other schemes.
    It also wouldn't make sense to signal to the market that the Govt are going to step in.
    Yes, sending or not sending signals to the market is s much more important than telling voters that you're going to help them when they're in crisis.
    The crisis is a future one, not one that exists today. It is also the MIDDLE OF SUMMER.

    The Treasury don't need to incur extra billions because of media drivel....
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Stereodog said:

    Russia isn’t nuking Germany or Italy because they don’t have nuclear weapons.

    Germany and Italy are both in the NATO nuclear weapons sharing program so they have B61s available for delivery by their air forces.

    However, Russia is conspicuously not nuking Denmark, Poland, Turkey, etc. who are not in the program.
    No guarantee on that, if Putin wanted to invade most of Europe the only nation with its own nukes he would definitely stop at would be France the rest all rely on the US and France to defend them with nukes of last resort but would France and the US really risk nuclear war with Russia to defend Copenhagen or Warsaw?
    Yes, that’s how NATO works.
    In theory, in practice as Yes Minister once pointed out it could quickly collapse like a pack of cards. Ukraine is holding out well against Russia but Ukraine has a bigger military than every individual NATO nation except Turkey and the US.

    A surprise attack by Putin beyond Ukraine could get quite far before NATO had enough forces collectively in place to stop it
    No, it wouldn’t. The Russian military has very limited logistical capability beyond its railways. Which are incredibly vulnerable to modern, precision weapons.
    If Putin sent several million troops into Finland and Poland it would take weeks for NATO to get a full military response together
    And why by what teleportation magic do you think Putin would manage to get several million troops together in the first place (which is more than they have available) and get them into Finland and Poland, without NATO having any advance warning or intelligence?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 55,056
    edited August 23
    I do not recall a time when a government has gone AWOL and entered it's own civil war, while the populace are frankly scared and angry at what is happening

    Truss is either saying that which she believes the membership want to hear to gain office, or she is the single most inept politician as she leads a kamikaze charge

    I have said and maintained the position that I just do not know the truth on this and September will either see a package that does address the concerns of the public or Truss will be the most unpopular new leader to take office

    While I remain a conservative supporter, I fully accept that at present Starmer is looking good for the next GE, though my only caution is a week is a long time in politics and I would add it would be wise for labour supporters to keep their feet on the ground as a lot can happen in 2 years
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 42,611
    FF43 said:

    Strikes everywhere. Energy issues. Inflation ramping up. The 1970s are back!!

    Brexit is now complete :D:D

    Not quite. Music filling the charts not nearly good enough to be the seventies. 🎸
    Kate Bush was top of charts recently. Actually seventies.
    Running up that hill was 1985, actually.
  • Important thread:

    NEW: the collapse of emergency healthcare in England may be costing 500 lives every week, a close match for non-Covid excess deaths

    Let’s look at how we reach that conclusion, by taking a deep-dive into non-Covid excess mortality and its possible causes

    https://ft.com/content/f36c5daa-9c14-4a92-9136-19b26508b9d2


    https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1562004612172873728?s=20&t=HXvwp-7KD_d60f8CopIakw

    Entirely consistent with recent personal experience (the A&E wait, not the death). In my case 24h from accident to ward admission. After that they got their skates on, but it was a grim start.

    If we have a cold winter with a significant number of pensioners not putting on their heating then the NHS will collapse.
    Another way to cut waiting lists. /cynic

    Allowing Covid to take its course naturally would have been kinder than having people freeze because theres's no money left as it was all spunked on stopping Covid.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,235

    FF43 said:

    Strikes everywhere. Energy issues. Inflation ramping up. The 1970s are back!!

    Brexit is now complete :D:D

    Not quite. Music filling the charts not nearly good enough to be the seventies. 🎸
    Kate Bush was top of charts recently. Actually seventies.
    Running up that hill was 1985, actually.
    Yes, but it didn’t reach the top of the charts then. Her only previous No.1 was her first single, Wuthering Heights, which was iirc released in 1978.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 4,926

    I do not recall a time when a government has gone AWOL and entered it's own civil war, while the populace are frankly scared and angry at what is happening

    Truss is either saying that which she believes the membership want to hear to gain office, or she is the single most inept politician as she leads a kamikaze charge

    I have said and maintained the position that I just do not know the truth on this and September will either see a package that does address the concerns of the public or Truss will be the most unpopular new leader to take office

    While I remain a conservative supporter, I fully accept that at present Starmer is looking good for the next GE, though my only caution is a week is a long time in politics and I would add it would be wise for labour supporters to keep their feet on the ground as a lot can happen in 2 years

    Truss is campaigning on the fresh meat of tax cuts. Her fiscal headroom is instead going to be blown on keeping the lights and radiators on. She worked as a commercial manager in Shell’s LNG division. She will be well aware that a cargo of LNG has gone from $20m to $200m. But she’s a politician, and the immediate job is to beat Sunak.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 42,611
  • rjkrjk Posts: 60
    Looking at the above polls, the biggest mover seems to be YouGov, showing Lab poll leads of 1%, 4%, 9% then most recently 15%, between July 28th and August 17th. Most of the other pollsters show a weak trend towards Labour, or fluctuations within the margin of error. Redfield and Wilton's biggest Lab lead is also their most recent poll, but we would want to see these kinds of results sustained for a couple of months before it seems like a permanent move.

    Truss is unlikely to get a bounce from changing the direction of the government, since she doesn't seem to want to change the direction much. It's not clear that there's a Truss-ism to rival Johnson-ism, so the biggest contrast she can strike is between Johnson's laziness and fecklessness and her fierce commitment and competence. Truss as Johnson 2.0, the upgraded model with fewer bugs and a smarter user interface.

    Johnson, in Isaiah Berlin's terms, was a hedgehog rather than a fox. He had one big idea - Get Brexit Done - and his main act of leadership was to sign off on whatever was necessary to do that as quickly as possible (with, some might say, little regard for the details). The current challenge isn't like that at all. It's a complex, multi-faceted problem that involves everything from our long-term energy supply, short-term economic crisis management, generation-defining geopolitics, industrial relations across multiple sectors, climate change in both its immediate and longer-term consequences, the possible collapse of the multi-decade house price trend, and the role of monetary policy. And this is just what you need to understand in order to get a sense of the problem - the immediate crisis is the biggest fall in real-term incomes in a century, the possibility of blackouts, and fuel poverty at levels that could cause thousands of deaths.

    Truss's job isn't to show "leadership" on one big issue. It will be to assemble a talented team who can stay on top of their briefs in each area of the omni-crisis, managing well and staying coordinated with each other. She will have to take the big calls on which things can be given priority, and that will involve upsetting some people who get left out. The strategy will have to be clear and consistent.

    Unfortunately, we're not seeing much of this so far. "Clear and consistent" is not a good description of her campaign thus far, and the barrel scrapings being mooted as cabinet ministers are not inspiring much confidence in her ability to put together a team capable of facing up to the challenge. If this continues, she runs the risk of being found out quite quickly.
  • I do not recall a time when a government has gone AWOL and entered it's own civil war, while the populace are frankly scared and angry at what is happening

    Truss is either saying that which she believes the membership want to hear to gain office, or she is the single most inept politician as she leads a kamikaze charge

    I have said and maintained the position that I just do not know the truth on this and September will either see a package that does address the concerns of the public or Truss will be the most unpopular new leader to take office

    While I remain a conservative supporter, I fully accept that at present Starmer is looking good for the next GE, though my only caution is a week is a long time in politics and I would add it would be wise for labour supporters to keep their feet on the ground as a lot can happen in 2 years

    What Truss is actually saying, as opposed to what people caricature her as saying, is entirely logical and reasonable.

    She's said repeatedly that further support would be available, which is inevitable, but that her priority is tax cuts and cheaper, reliable fuel.

    That is the appropriate response. Giving support as the priority because you always believe support is the answer is the wrong thing to do, support should be a safety net where its needed not a way of life. Short-term support will be necessary and will be outlined in an emergency budget no doubt, but the long-term solutions should be tax cuts and cheaper, reliable fuel.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 55,056

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Stereodog said:

    Russia isn’t nuking Germany or Italy because they don’t have nuclear weapons.

    Germany and Italy are both in the NATO nuclear weapons sharing program so they have B61s available for delivery by their air forces.

    However, Russia is conspicuously not nuking Denmark, Poland, Turkey, etc. who are not in the program.
    No guarantee on that, if Putin wanted to invade most of Europe the only nation with its own nukes he would definitely stop at would be France the rest all rely on the US and France to defend them with nukes of last resort but would France and the US really risk nuclear war with Russia to defend Copenhagen or Warsaw?
    Yes, that’s how NATO works.
    In theory, in practice as Yes Minister once pointed out it could quickly collapse like a pack of cards. Ukraine is holding out well against Russia but Ukraine has a bigger military than every individual NATO nation except Turkey and the US.

    A surprise attack by Putin beyond Ukraine could get quite far before NATO had enough forces collectively in place to stop it
    No, it wouldn’t. The Russian military has very limited logistical capability beyond its railways. Which are incredibly vulnerable to modern, precision weapons.
    If Putin sent several million troops into Finland and Poland it would take weeks for NATO to get a full military response together
    And why by what teleportation magic do you think Putin would manage to get several million troops together in the first place (which is more than they have available) and get them into Finland and Poland, without NATO having any advance warning or intelligence?
    I thought I had become immune to @HYUFD wittering's but he just does not think before he spouts such drivel
  • eekeek Posts: 21,808
    moonshine said:

    I do not recall a time when a government has gone AWOL and entered it's own civil war, while the populace are frankly scared and angry at what is happening

    Truss is either saying that which she believes the membership want to hear to gain office, or she is the single most inept politician as she leads a kamikaze charge

    I have said and maintained the position that I just do not know the truth on this and September will either see a package that does address the concerns of the public or Truss will be the most unpopular new leader to take office

    While I remain a conservative supporter, I fully accept that at present Starmer is looking good for the next GE, though my only caution is a week is a long time in politics and I would add it would be wise for labour supporters to keep their feet on the ground as a lot can happen in 2 years

    Truss is campaigning on the fresh meat of tax cuts. Her fiscal headroom is instead going to be blown on keeping the lights and radiators on. She worked as a commercial manager in Shell’s LNG division. She will be well aware that a cargo of LNG has gone from $20m to $200m. But she’s a politician, and the immediate job is to beat Sunak.
    You would hope she is aware that a cargo of LNG has increased in price from $20m to $200m. I suspect, however, that she hasn't got a clue of the scale of the problems that will descend upon her on September 5th.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 57,127
    edited August 23
    TOPPING said:

    Fpt @Cyclefree

    There is only one language that the NHS/GPs understand and it is not quietly waiting on the phone or for a call back.

    You need to threaten them with whatever is to hand. Complaint to the NHS or ombudsman. Or even the police.

    Not so long ago I stood in the middle of a hospital ward during the consultant's round and threatened to call the police if treatment was not forthcoming (for my mother). It forthcame.

    I’d second that. After I was eventually admitted it was to a general surgical ward not the specialist orthopaedic ward I was supposed to go to, so on the third day during post-op recovery of no one coming to check up on me I became a persistent and politely assertive presence at the Ward Sister’s desk. That worked, and no more “we’ll do it tomorrows” either.

    To be clear - this is largely not the fault of the staff, but of the system they are being asked to work under - over stretched and under resourced.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,591

    Important thread:

    NEW: the collapse of emergency healthcare in England may be costing 500 lives every week, a close match for non-Covid excess deaths

    Let’s look at how we reach that conclusion, by taking a deep-dive into non-Covid excess mortality and its possible causes

    https://ft.com/content/f36c5daa-9c14-4a92-9136-19b26508b9d2


    https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1562004612172873728?s=20&t=HXvwp-7KD_d60f8CopIakw

    Entirely consistent with recent personal experience (the A&E wait, not the death). In my case 24h from accident to ward admission. After that they got their skates on, but it was a grim start.

    If we have a cold winter with a significant number of pensioners not putting on their heating then the NHS will collapse.
    Another way to cut waiting lists. /cynic

    Allowing Covid to take its course naturally would have been kinder than having people freeze because theres's no money left as it was all spunked on stopping Covid.
    The energy inflation is caused by the Russia sanctions and war on Ukraine, not covid.

    The simplest way to solve it is to end the sanctions, which effectively means abandoning Ukraine.

    I am impressed that no one politically significant is advocating that.
  • eek said:

    moonshine said:

    I do not recall a time when a government has gone AWOL and entered it's own civil war, while the populace are frankly scared and angry at what is happening

    Truss is either saying that which she believes the membership want to hear to gain office, or she is the single most inept politician as she leads a kamikaze charge

    I have said and maintained the position that I just do not know the truth on this and September will either see a package that does address the concerns of the public or Truss will be the most unpopular new leader to take office

    While I remain a conservative supporter, I fully accept that at present Starmer is looking good for the next GE, though my only caution is a week is a long time in politics and I would add it would be wise for labour supporters to keep their feet on the ground as a lot can happen in 2 years

    Truss is campaigning on the fresh meat of tax cuts. Her fiscal headroom is instead going to be blown on keeping the lights and radiators on. She worked as a commercial manager in Shell’s LNG division. She will be well aware that a cargo of LNG has gone from $20m to $200m. But she’s a politician, and the immediate job is to beat Sunak.
    You would hope she is aware that a cargo of LNG has increased in price from $20m to $200m. I suspect, however, that she hasn't got a clue of the scale of the problems that will descend upon her on September 5th.
    I suspect she's well aware of the scale of problems, which is why she's ruled nothing out, but she can do sweet FA about it until the leadership election is over.

    Once the leadership election is over a new Chancellor will be put in place, then announcements will be made.
  • eekeek Posts: 21,808

    I do not recall a time when a government has gone AWOL and entered it's own civil war, while the populace are frankly scared and angry at what is happening

    Truss is either saying that which she believes the membership want to hear to gain office, or she is the single most inept politician as she leads a kamikaze charge

    I have said and maintained the position that I just do not know the truth on this and September will either see a package that does address the concerns of the public or Truss will be the most unpopular new leader to take office

    While I remain a conservative supporter, I fully accept that at present Starmer is looking good for the next GE, though my only caution is a week is a long time in politics and I would add it would be wise for labour supporters to keep their feet on the ground as a lot can happen in 2 years

    What Truss is actually saying, as opposed to what people caricature her as saying, is entirely logical and reasonable.

    She's said repeatedly that further support would be available, which is inevitable, but that her priority is tax cuts and cheaper, reliable fuel.

    That is the appropriate response. Giving support as the priority because you always believe support is the answer is the wrong thing to do, support should be a safety net where its needed not a way of life. Short-term support will be necessary and will be outlined in an emergency budget no doubt, but the long-term solutions should be tax cuts and cheaper, reliable fuel.
    Where is the money for tax cuts going to come from?

    I'm not kidding when I say there is no money left and zero leeway regardless of the fantasies Truss is talking about...
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 2,010

    I do not recall a time when a government has gone AWOL and entered it's own civil war, while the populace are frankly scared and angry at what is happening

    Truss is either saying that which she believes the membership want to hear to gain office, or she is the single most inept politician as she leads a kamikaze charge

    I have said and maintained the position that I just do not know the truth on this and September will either see a package that does address the concerns of the public or Truss will be the most unpopular new leader to take office

    While I remain a conservative supporter, I fully accept that at present Starmer is looking good for the next GE, though my only caution is a week is a long time in politics and I would add it would be wise for labour supporters to keep their feet on the ground as a lot can happen in 2 years

    I'm still CON in principle but I'm not voting for this shower of shyte at any foreseeable time!

    GRRRR 😡
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,235
    eek said:

    I do not recall a time when a government has gone AWOL and entered it's own civil war, while the populace are frankly scared and angry at what is happening

    Truss is either saying that which she believes the membership want to hear to gain office, or she is the single most inept politician as she leads a kamikaze charge

    I have said and maintained the position that I just do not know the truth on this and September will either see a package that does address the concerns of the public or Truss will be the most unpopular new leader to take office

    While I remain a conservative supporter, I fully accept that at present Starmer is looking good for the next GE, though my only caution is a week is a long time in politics and I would add it would be wise for labour supporters to keep their feet on the ground as a lot can happen in 2 years

    What Truss is actually saying, as opposed to what people caricature her as saying, is entirely logical and reasonable.

    She's said repeatedly that further support would be available, which is inevitable, but that her priority is tax cuts and cheaper, reliable fuel.

    That is the appropriate response. Giving support as the priority because you always believe support is the answer is the wrong thing to do, support should be a safety net where its needed not a way of life. Short-term support will be necessary and will be outlined in an emergency budget no doubt, but the long-term solutions should be tax cuts and cheaper, reliable fuel.
    Where is the money for tax cuts going to come from?

    I'm not kidding when I say there is no money left and zero leeway regardless of the fantasies Truss is talking about...
    Didn’t you get the memo? We’ve now entered the era of post-reality politics.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,459

    Important thread:

    NEW: the collapse of emergency healthcare in England may be costing 500 lives every week, a close match for non-Covid excess deaths

    Let’s look at how we reach that conclusion, by taking a deep-dive into non-Covid excess mortality and its possible causes

    https://ft.com/content/f36c5daa-9c14-4a92-9136-19b26508b9d2


    https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1562004612172873728?s=20&t=HXvwp-7KD_d60f8CopIakw

    Entirely consistent with recent personal experience (the A&E wait, not the death). In my case 24h from accident to ward admission. After that they got their skates on, but it was a grim start.

    An excellent and detailed analysis. And, sadly, a brilliant example of Brandolini's Law (the effort required to counter bullshit is orders of magnitude greater than that required to generate it).

    The Telegraph came up with their crap in order to seed the idea that the excess deaths were due to lockdown. Didn't need any effort for Sarah Knapton to come up with it, and instantly publicised by the Usual Suspects (and added to the "we now know..." lines).

    John Burn-Murdoch put huge amounts of effort in to deep dive what is happening and where the excess deaths are and concluded it's down to the healthcare system collapse, especially in A&E and ambulances. What are the odds it gets the attention it deserves? Versus the odds that it vanishes under the Telegraph's crap?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,886
    Foxy said:

    Important thread:

    NEW: the collapse of emergency healthcare in England may be costing 500 lives every week, a close match for non-Covid excess deaths

    Let’s look at how we reach that conclusion, by taking a deep-dive into non-Covid excess mortality and its possible causes

    https://ft.com/content/f36c5daa-9c14-4a92-9136-19b26508b9d2


    https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1562004612172873728?s=20&t=HXvwp-7KD_d60f8CopIakw

    Entirely consistent with recent personal experience (the A&E wait, not the death). In my case 24h from accident to ward admission. After that they got their skates on, but it was a grim start.

    If we have a cold winter with a significant number of pensioners not putting on their heating then the NHS will collapse.
    Another way to cut waiting lists. /cynic

    Allowing Covid to take its course naturally would have been kinder than having people freeze because theres's no money left as it was all spunked on stopping Covid.
    The energy inflation is caused by the Russia sanctions and war on Ukraine, not covid.

    The simplest way to solve it is to end the sanctions, which effectively means abandoning Ukraine.

    I am impressed that no one politically significant is advocating that.
    As Germany is slowly finding out, Putin can switch off the gas for no reason other than he thinks it will be funny to watch Europe have a nightmare of a winter, irrespective of what happens now with the sanctions.

    Thankfully, the European resolve over Ukraine is still holding - because everyone knows the mad man isn’t going to stop with that country if left unchecked.
  • Foxy said:

    Important thread:

    NEW: the collapse of emergency healthcare in England may be costing 500 lives every week, a close match for non-Covid excess deaths

    Let’s look at how we reach that conclusion, by taking a deep-dive into non-Covid excess mortality and its possible causes

    https://ft.com/content/f36c5daa-9c14-4a92-9136-19b26508b9d2


    https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1562004612172873728?s=20&t=HXvwp-7KD_d60f8CopIakw

    Entirely consistent with recent personal experience (the A&E wait, not the death). In my case 24h from accident to ward admission. After that they got their skates on, but it was a grim start.

    If we have a cold winter with a significant number of pensioners not putting on their heating then the NHS will collapse.
    Another way to cut waiting lists. /cynic

    Allowing Covid to take its course naturally would have been kinder than having people freeze because theres's no money left as it was all spunked on stopping Covid.
    The energy inflation is caused by the Russia sanctions and war on Ukraine, not covid.

    The simplest way to solve it is to end the sanctions, which effectively means abandoning Ukraine.

    I am impressed that no one politically significant is advocating that.
    The energy inflation is caused by the Russia sanctions, I totally agree with that, and I agree with you that no one politically significant advocating ending the sanctions is a good and impressive thing.

    However just as Gordon Brown was to blame for the poor state of the fiscal situation before the GFC even hit, which meant we were utterly exposed when the GFC hit, so too the catastrophic f**k up to the Covid response meant the NHS etc were already on their knees before Russia invaded Ukraine. The roof was ripped off in the response to the prior storm and there was no time to fix it before this storm happened.

    Had Covid been allowed to take its course, Sweden style, then we'd have gone into the energy/Putin/inflation crisis with much less debt, much less Quantitative Easing, and much smaller waiting lists in the NHS.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 29,179

    TOPPING said:

    Fpt @Cyclefree

    There is only one language that the NHS/GPs understand and it is not quietly waiting on the phone or for a call back.

    You need to threaten them with whatever is to hand. Complaint to the NHS or ombudsman. Or even the police.

    Not so long ago I stood in the middle of a hospital ward during the consultant's round and threatened to call the police if treatment was not forthcoming (for my mother). It forthcame.

    I’d second that. After I was eventually admitted it was to a general surgical ward not the specialist orthopaedic ward I was supposed to go to, so on the third day during post-op recovery of no one coming to check up on me I became a persistent and politely assertive presence at the Ward Sister’s desk. That worked, and no more “we’ll do it tomorrows” either.

    To be clear - this is largely not the fault of the staff, but of the system they are being asked to work under - over stretched and under resourced.
    As someone who is waiting for a specialist orthopaedic appointment I'm beginning to get worried. I do in fact have an appointment, but I'm well aware that that doesn't necessarily mean immediate treatment. I've made it clear to our GP that I don't mind where I go but she doesn't seem to be able to make any progress.
    She's either a very good liar or she's genuinely concerned though!
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 7,856

    I do not recall a time when a government has gone AWOL and entered it's own civil war, while the populace are frankly scared and angry at what is happening

    Truss is either saying that which she believes the membership want to hear to gain office, or she is the single most inept politician as she leads a kamikaze charge

    I have said and maintained the position that I just do not know the truth on this and September will either see a package that does address the concerns of the public or Truss will be the most unpopular new leader to take office

    While I remain a conservative supporter, I fully accept that at present Starmer is looking good for the next GE, though my only caution is a week is a long time in politics and I would add it would be wise for labour supporters to keep their feet on the ground as a lot can happen in 2 years

    I'm still CON in principle but I'm not voting for this shower of shyte at any foreseeable time!

    GRRRR 😡
    If you list all the slices of the Conservative family that have wandered off, stormed out in disgust or been shown the door for being insufficiently loyal to Boris/Brexit, who's left?

    It can't just be pensioner homeowners on the edges of the green belt, can it?
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 6,575
    If it's any help the Tories are nowhere close to getting my support back and I have voted for them in GEs for 40 years.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 35,319

    eek said:

    I do not recall a time when a government has gone AWOL and entered it's own civil war, while the populace are frankly scared and angry at what is happening

    Truss is either saying that which she believes the membership want to hear to gain office, or she is the single most inept politician as she leads a kamikaze charge

    I have said and maintained the position that I just do not know the truth on this and September will either see a package that does address the concerns of the public or Truss will be the most unpopular new leader to take office

    While I remain a conservative supporter, I fully accept that at present Starmer is looking good for the next GE, though my only caution is a week is a long time in politics and I would add it would be wise for labour supporters to keep their feet on the ground as a lot can happen in 2 years

    What Truss is actually saying, as opposed to what people caricature her as saying, is entirely logical and reasonable.

    She's said repeatedly that further support would be available, which is inevitable, but that her priority is tax cuts and cheaper, reliable fuel.

    That is the appropriate response. Giving support as the priority because you always believe support is the answer is the wrong thing to do, support should be a safety net where its needed not a way of life. Short-term support will be necessary and will be outlined in an emergency budget no doubt, but the long-term solutions should be tax cuts and cheaper, reliable fuel.
    Where is the money for tax cuts going to come from?

    I'm not kidding when I say there is no money left and zero leeway regardless of the fantasies Truss is talking about...
    Didn’t you get the memo? We’ve now entered the era of post-reality politics.
    And all-too-much-reality society.
    Somethin’s gotta give.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 36,680

    TOPPING said:

    Fpt @Cyclefree

    There is only one language that the NHS/GPs understand and it is not quietly waiting on the phone or for a call back.

    You need to threaten them with whatever is to hand. Complaint to the NHS or ombudsman. Or even the police.

    Not so long ago I stood in the middle of a hospital ward during the consultant's round and threatened to call the police if treatment was not forthcoming (for my mother). It forthcame.

    I’d second that. After I was eventually admitted it was to a general surgical ward not the specialist orthopaedic ward I was supposed to go to, so on the third day during post-op recovery of no one coming to check up on me I became a persistent and politely assertive presence at the Ward Sister’s desk. That worked, and no more “we’ll do it tomorrows” either.

    To be clear - this is largely not the fault of the staff, but of the system they are being asked to work under - over stretched and under resourced.
    Yes absolutely. They are unfortunately at the sharp end and I'm sure would wish the system was not as it was. But sometimes they do get sucked in and become part of the problem.
  • Important thread:

    NEW: the collapse of emergency healthcare in England may be costing 500 lives every week, a close match for non-Covid excess deaths

    Let’s look at how we reach that conclusion, by taking a deep-dive into non-Covid excess mortality and its possible causes

    https://ft.com/content/f36c5daa-9c14-4a92-9136-19b26508b9d2


    https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1562004612172873728?s=20&t=HXvwp-7KD_d60f8CopIakw

    Entirely consistent with recent personal experience (the A&E wait, not the death). In my case 24h from accident to ward admission. After that they got their skates on, but it was a grim start.

    An excellent and detailed analysis. And, sadly, a brilliant example of Brandolini's Law (the effort required to counter bullshit is orders of magnitude greater than that required to generate it).

    The Telegraph came up with their crap in order to seed the idea that the excess deaths were due to lockdown. Didn't need any effort for Sarah Knapton to come up with it, and instantly publicised by the Usual Suspects (and added to the "we now know..." lines).

    John Burn-Murdoch put huge amounts of effort in to deep dive what is happening and where the excess deaths are and concluded it's down to the healthcare system collapse, especially in A&E and ambulances. What are the odds it gets the attention it deserves? Versus the odds that it vanishes under the Telegraph's crap?
    The healthcare system collapse now is due to lockdown though.

    Had we not locked down, had we allowed Covid to take its course, then we'd have had extra fatalities then, sure, but we wouldn't have trashed the future or the NHS for the long-term by abolishing everything else leading to mammoth waiting lists etc.

    People who would have died from Covid wouldn't be on any waiting lists now. People who survived, wouldn't be paying the price of lockdown.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 29,179

    I do not recall a time when a government has gone AWOL and entered it's own civil war, while the populace are frankly scared and angry at what is happening

    Truss is either saying that which she believes the membership want to hear to gain office, or she is the single most inept politician as she leads a kamikaze charge

    I have said and maintained the position that I just do not know the truth on this and September will either see a package that does address the concerns of the public or Truss will be the most unpopular new leader to take office

    While I remain a conservative supporter, I fully accept that at present Starmer is looking good for the next GE, though my only caution is a week is a long time in politics and I would add it would be wise for labour supporters to keep their feet on the ground as a lot can happen in 2 years

    I'm still CON in principle but I'm not voting for this shower of shyte at any foreseeable time!

    GRRRR 😡
    If you list all the slices of the Conservative family that have wandered off, stormed out in disgust or been shown the door for being insufficiently loyal to Boris/Brexit, who's left?

    It can't just be pensioner homeowners on the edges of the green belt, can it?
    HYUFD isn't a pensioner, but he is on the edge of the greenbelt and a homeowner!
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,235

    I do not recall a time when a government has gone AWOL and entered it's own civil war, while the populace are frankly scared and angry at what is happening

    Truss is either saying that which she believes the membership want to hear to gain office, or she is the single most inept politician as she leads a kamikaze charge

    I have said and maintained the position that I just do not know the truth on this and September will either see a package that does address the concerns of the public or Truss will be the most unpopular new leader to take office

    While I remain a conservative supporter, I fully accept that at present Starmer is looking good for the next GE, though my only caution is a week is a long time in politics and I would add it would be wise for labour supporters to keep their feet on the ground as a lot can happen in 2 years

    I'm still CON in principle but I'm not voting for this shower of shyte at any foreseeable time!

    GRRRR 😡
    If you list all the slices of the Conservative family that have wandered off, stormed out in disgust or been shown the door for being insufficiently loyal to Boris/Brexit, who's left?

    It can't just be pensioner homeowners on the edges of the green belt, can it?
    Bart still seems to be onside. I sense HYUFD is wavering though …
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 30,162

    Dura_Ace said:

    kyf_100 said:

    All the noises coming out of the Truss camp are that they're not going to offer further support for the ludicrous energy bills that are about to ruin people's lives and devastate businesses this winter.

    Why wouldn't 'Bubble' (©️🌙🐇) do it?

    We now by know that she has zero principles beyond her own self-interest and it will be a political disaster if she doesn't. I don't see the case for her not giving everyone loads of money.
    Partly, Truss does, at some level, believe all the libertarian stuff. Privatise the lamp posts, that sort of thing. Her case for remain was about how Brexit would reduce freedoms for individuals (and quite right too). She also believes in Liz Truss being Prime Minister, but the two pulls are in tension in a way that they weren't for (say) Boris. She really would rather help by cutting taxes, the only problem being that won't work.

    Second, my memory of the Covid experience was that it took a couple of goes to get there. There were some inadequate packages before the Big Bazooka. We've already seen the same on fuel bills (remember the £1000 loan to be repaid over five years?) If I had to guess, HMG will get there and not many people will freeze, but it will be a messy scramble.
    There was nothing until Rishi stood up and announced furlough etc. which was very early in the lockdown process.

    A number of commentators noticed that government actions had been done so as not to trigger various insurances. The fact that everyone claiming on such insurances at the same time would have just collapsed the insurance industry and left everyone without help seemed to pass the geniuses in the commentariat by….
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 9,936
    edited August 23

    I do not recall a time when a government has gone AWOL and entered it's own civil war, while the populace are frankly scared and angry at what is happening

    Truss is either saying that which she believes the membership want to hear to gain office, or she is the single most inept politician as she leads a kamikaze charge

    I have said and maintained the position that I just do not know the truth on this and September will either see a package that does address the concerns of the public or Truss will be the most unpopular new leader to take office

    While I remain a conservative supporter, I fully accept that at present Starmer is looking good for the next GE, though my only caution is a week is a long time in politics and I would add it would be wise for labour supporters to keep their feet on the ground as a lot can happen in 2 years

    I'm still CON in principle but I'm not voting for this shower of shyte at any foreseeable time!

    GRRRR 😡
    If you list all the slices of the Conservative family that have wandered off, stormed out in disgust or been shown the door for being insufficiently loyal to Boris/Brexit, who's left?

    It can't just be pensioner homeowners on the edges of the green belt, can it?
    Bart still seems to be onside. I sense HYUFD is wavering though …
    I quit supporting the Tories.

    If Truss wins, I like her, but I will wait to see if she honours her promises before rejoining the tent.

    If Sunak wins, I'll love my bet coming in (or what's left of it that hasn't been laid off already) but will start voting for the Liberal Democrats.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,235

    I do not recall a time when a government has gone AWOL and entered it's own civil war, while the populace are frankly scared and angry at what is happening

    Truss is either saying that which she believes the membership want to hear to gain office, or she is the single most inept politician as she leads a kamikaze charge

    I have said and maintained the position that I just do not know the truth on this and September will either see a package that does address the concerns of the public or Truss will be the most unpopular new leader to take office

    While I remain a conservative supporter, I fully accept that at present Starmer is looking good for the next GE, though my only caution is a week is a long time in politics and I would add it would be wise for labour supporters to keep their feet on the ground as a lot can happen in 2 years

    I'm still CON in principle but I'm not voting for this shower of shyte at any foreseeable time!

    GRRRR 😡
    If you list all the slices of the Conservative family that have wandered off, stormed out in disgust or been shown the door for being insufficiently loyal to Boris/Brexit, who's left?

    It can't just be pensioner homeowners on the edges of the green belt, can it?
    Bart still seems to be onside. I sense HYUFD is wavering though …
    I quit supporting the Tories.

    If Truss wins, I like her, but I will wait to see if she honours her promises before rejoining the tent.

    If Sunak wins, I'll love my bet coming in (or what's left of it that hasn't been laid off already) but will start voting for the Liberal Democrats.
    I stand corrected!
  • On topic, Brown emerged from a coronation into calm political waters (albeit, as it turns out, they weren't calm for long). Truss (presumably) will emerge from a bloody civil war into a violent political storm.

    Very different circumstances in terms of likelihood of benefiting from a significant bounce.
  • eek said:

    I do not recall a time when a government has gone AWOL and entered it's own civil war, while the populace are frankly scared and angry at what is happening

    Truss is either saying that which she believes the membership want to hear to gain office, or she is the single most inept politician as she leads a kamikaze charge

    I have said and maintained the position that I just do not know the truth on this and September will either see a package that does address the concerns of the public or Truss will be the most unpopular new leader to take office

    While I remain a conservative supporter, I fully accept that at present Starmer is looking good for the next GE, though my only caution is a week is a long time in politics and I would add it would be wise for labour supporters to keep their feet on the ground as a lot can happen in 2 years

    What Truss is actually saying, as opposed to what people caricature her as saying, is entirely logical and reasonable.

    She's said repeatedly that further support would be available, which is inevitable, but that her priority is tax cuts and cheaper, reliable fuel.

    That is the appropriate response. Giving support as the priority because you always believe support is the answer is the wrong thing to do, support should be a safety net where its needed not a way of life. Short-term support will be necessary and will be outlined in an emergency budget no doubt, but the long-term solutions should be tax cuts and cheaper, reliable fuel.
    Where is the money for tax cuts going to come from?

    I'm not kidding when I say there is no money left and zero leeway regardless of the fantasies Truss is talking about...
    A mixture of borrowing for the short term and economic growth for the longer term no doubt.

    There hasn't been any money left since 2002, that's the last time the budget was in balance, but ramping up taxes to the highest levels in 74 years hasn't led to a budget surplus either.

    Some borrowing is necessary, regrettable but necessary, but reversing the unjustifiable tax hikes is absolutely necessary.

    Cancelling Rishi's planned Income Tax cut to 16% giving money to those who aren't working for their income while National Insurance is ramped up will also free up some money for reversing tax hikes.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,459

    Important thread:

    NEW: the collapse of emergency healthcare in England may be costing 500 lives every week, a close match for non-Covid excess deaths

    Let’s look at how we reach that conclusion, by taking a deep-dive into non-Covid excess mortality and its possible causes

    https://ft.com/content/f36c5daa-9c14-4a92-9136-19b26508b9d2


    https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1562004612172873728?s=20&t=HXvwp-7KD_d60f8CopIakw

    Entirely consistent with recent personal experience (the A&E wait, not the death). In my case 24h from accident to ward admission. After that they got their skates on, but it was a grim start.

    An excellent and detailed analysis. And, sadly, a brilliant example of Brandolini's Law (the effort required to counter bullshit is orders of magnitude greater than that required to generate it).

    The Telegraph came up with their crap in order to seed the idea that the excess deaths were due to lockdown. Didn't need any effort for Sarah Knapton to come up with it, and instantly publicised by the Usual Suspects (and added to the "we now know..." lines).

    John Burn-Murdoch put huge amounts of effort in to deep dive what is happening and where the excess deaths are and concluded it's down to the healthcare system collapse, especially in A&E and ambulances. What are the odds it gets the attention it deserves? Versus the odds that it vanishes under the Telegraph's crap?
    The healthcare system collapse now is due to lockdown though.

    Had we not locked down, had we allowed Covid to take its course, then we'd have had extra fatalities then, sure, but we wouldn't have trashed the future or the NHS for the long-term by abolishing everything else leading to mammoth waiting lists etc.

    People who would have died from Covid wouldn't be on any waiting lists now. People who survived, wouldn't be paying the price of lockdown.
    No, it's not.
    It's got very little to do with that. As Burn-Murdoch analyses.
    It's got most to do with the soaring waits in A&E and ambulances post-July 2021.
    But you will never accept that, because you hated lockdown (Can't blame you there; I hated it too) and therefore have to insist that bad things that happen must have come from it.
  • Labour majority is no longer impossible.

    If it happened Keir Starmer's strategy would be vindicated and he would be the best Labour performer in many years, particularly in one election cycle. To come from 200 seats to a majority is very rare indeed
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 10,451



    It can't just be pensioner homeowners on the edges of the green belt, can it?

    Brexitaliban who believe, correctly, that The Project is foundering and must be defended at all costs.

    Hyper-partisan supporters (HYUFD, Big G) who have to stick with their team no matter what displays of instransigent incompetence are on offer.

    Kulturkrieg Sonderkommados who live in palsied fear of woke and think that they'll have to share a swimming pool changing room with a statue or something.
  • Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Important thread:

    NEW: the collapse of emergency healthcare in England may be costing 500 lives every week, a close match for non-Covid excess deaths

    Let’s look at how we reach that conclusion, by taking a deep-dive into non-Covid excess mortality and its possible causes

    https://ft.com/content/f36c5daa-9c14-4a92-9136-19b26508b9d2


    https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1562004612172873728?s=20&t=HXvwp-7KD_d60f8CopIakw

    Entirely consistent with recent personal experience (the A&E wait, not the death). In my case 24h from accident to ward admission. After that they got their skates on, but it was a grim start.

    If we have a cold winter with a significant number of pensioners not putting on their heating then the NHS will collapse.
    Another way to cut waiting lists. /cynic

    Allowing Covid to take its course naturally would have been kinder than having people freeze because theres's no money left as it was all spunked on stopping Covid.
    The energy inflation is caused by the Russia sanctions and war on Ukraine, not covid.

    The simplest way to solve it is to end the sanctions, which effectively means abandoning Ukraine.

    I am impressed that no one politically significant is advocating that.
    The energy inflation is caused by the Russia sanctions, I totally agree with that, and I agree with you that no one politically significant advocating ending the sanctions is a good and impressive thing.

    However just as Gordon Brown was to blame for the poor state of the fiscal situation before the GFC even hit, which meant we were utterly exposed when the GFC hit, so too the catastrophic f**k up to the Covid response meant the NHS etc were already on their knees before Russia invaded Ukraine. The roof was ripped off in the response to the prior storm and there was no time to fix it before this storm happened.

    Had Covid been allowed to take its course, Sweden style, then we'd have gone into the energy/Putin/inflation crisis with much less debt, much less Quantitative Easing, and much smaller waiting lists in the NHS.
    No, that would not have been the case. Whitty explains here:

    https://twitter.com/bmay/status/1560567875110178817?t=1kZJjn_plDYi2Cc6lDb5nw&s=19

    The waiting lists grew as elective activity was diverted to surge capacity. The expansion of ICU was by converting operating theatres and staff into overflow ICU. The surgical wards became respiratory wards etc.

    Surge capacity in the NHS comes from reduced elective capacity as there is no slack in the
    system. Redundancy and resilience is sacrificed in the name of efficiency in the NHS, as it is in so many British institutions, making them very fragile when a storm hits.
    Yes and that was the response of lockdown. Two years of nothing much but surge capacity while surgical wards were cancelled.

    Had we not had lockdown, then the surge capacity would have been exceeded, leading to more deaths, which by itself takes people off waiting lists (dead people don't appear on waiting lists) and then the pandemic would have been over sooner, so less need for surge capacity, so operations would have been able to be resumed, so again shorter waiting lists.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 2,160

    Important thread:

    NEW: the collapse of emergency healthcare in England may be costing 500 lives every week, a close match for non-Covid excess deaths

    Let’s look at how we reach that conclusion, by taking a deep-dive into non-Covid excess mortality and its possible causes

    https://ft.com/content/f36c5daa-9c14-4a92-9136-19b26508b9d2


    https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1562004612172873728?s=20&t=HXvwp-7KD_d60f8CopIakw

    Entirely consistent with recent personal experience (the A&E wait, not the death). In my case 24h from accident to ward admission. After that they got their skates on, but it was a grim start.

    An excellent and detailed analysis. And, sadly, a brilliant example of Brandolini's Law (the effort required to counter bullshit is orders of magnitude greater than that required to generate it).

    The Telegraph came up with their crap in order to seed the idea that the excess deaths were due to lockdown. Didn't need any effort for Sarah Knapton to come up with it, and instantly publicised by the Usual Suspects (and added to the "we now know..." lines).

    John Burn-Murdoch put huge amounts of effort in to deep dive what is happening and where the excess deaths are and concluded it's down to the healthcare system collapse, especially in A&E and ambulances. What are the odds it gets the attention it deserves? Versus the odds that it vanishes under the Telegraph's crap?
    The healthcare system collapse now is due to lockdown though.

    Had we not locked down, had we allowed Covid to take its course, then we'd have had extra fatalities then, sure, but we wouldn't have trashed the future or the NHS for the long-term by abolishing everything else leading to mammoth waiting lists etc.

    People who would have died from Covid wouldn't be on any waiting lists now. People who survived, wouldn't be paying the price of lockdown.
    No, it's not.
    It's got very little to do with that. As Burn-Murdoch analyses.
    It's got most to do with the soaring waits in A&E and ambulances post-July 2021.
    But you will never accept that, because you hated lockdown (Can't blame you there; I hated it too) and therefore have to insist that bad things that happen must have come from it.
    And why did it soar post-July 2021 (the unlocking)? Surely not because people who had been complying by staying at home to protect the NHS finally sought treatment for what had been afflicting them for some time?
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 7,856

    Dura_Ace said:

    kyf_100 said:

    All the noises coming out of the Truss camp are that they're not going to offer further support for the ludicrous energy bills that are about to ruin people's lives and devastate businesses this winter.

    Why wouldn't 'Bubble' (©️🌙🐇) do it?

    We now by know that she has zero principles beyond her own self-interest and it will be a political disaster if she doesn't. I don't see the case for her not giving everyone loads of money.
    Partly, Truss does, at some level, believe all the libertarian stuff. Privatise the lamp posts, that sort of thing. Her case for remain was about how Brexit would reduce freedoms for individuals (and quite right too). She also believes in Liz Truss being Prime Minister, but the two pulls are in tension in a way that they weren't for (say) Boris. She really would rather help by cutting taxes, the only problem being that won't work.

    Second, my memory of the Covid experience was that it took a couple of goes to get there. There were some inadequate packages before the Big Bazooka. We've already seen the same on fuel bills (remember the £1000 loan to be repaid over five years?) If I had to guess, HMG will get there and not many people will freeze, but it will be a messy scramble.
    There was nothing until Rishi stood up and announced furlough etc. which was very early in the lockdown process.

    A number of commentators noticed that government actions had been done so as not to trigger various insurances. The fact that everyone claiming on such insurances at the same time would have just collapsed the insurance industry and left everyone without help seemed to pass the geniuses in the commentariat by….
    The March 11 budget was meant to do what was needed. And it was understood at the time. "Dr Feelgood to the Rescue", the Daily Mail said the next day. It was... overtaken by events.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,648
    algarkirk said:

    If it's any help the Tories are nowhere close to getting my support back and I have voted for them in GEs for 40 years.

    Ive dabbled all over the place but generally Tory as a Labour blockade as stopping Labour has always been my paramount concern. However now im just depressed at the state of things. I think its time for a move leftwards economically with a heavy side of protectionism but im not voting for the baggage and twat circus that comes with Labour.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,746
    I guess we survived as a species before electricity. Only going back a hundred years, not thousands even in terms of QoL.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,235

    I do not recall a time when a government has gone AWOL and entered it's own civil war, while the populace are frankly scared and angry at what is happening

    Truss is either saying that which she believes the membership want to hear to gain office, or she is the single most inept politician as she leads a kamikaze charge

    I have said and maintained the position that I just do not know the truth on this and September will either see a package that does address the concerns of the public or Truss will be the most unpopular new leader to take office

    While I remain a conservative supporter, I fully accept that at present Starmer is looking good for the next GE, though my only caution is a week is a long time in politics and I would add it would be wise for labour supporters to keep their feet on the ground as a lot can happen in 2 years

    I'm still CON in principle but I'm not voting for this shower of shyte at any foreseeable time!

    GRRRR 😡
    If you list all the slices of the Conservative family that have wandered off, stormed out in disgust or been shown the door for being insufficiently loyal to Boris/Brexit, who's left?

    It can't just be pensioner homeowners on the edges of the green belt, can it?
    Bart still seems to be onside. I sense HYUFD is wavering though …
    I quit supporting the Tories.

    If Truss wins, I like her, but I will wait to see if she honours her promises before rejoining the tent.

    If Sunak wins, I'll love my bet coming in (or what's left of it that hasn't been laid off already) but will start voting for the Liberal Democrats.
    I stand corrected!

    Labour majority is no longer impossible.

    If it happened Keir Starmer's strategy would be vindicated and he would be the best Labour performer in many years, particularly in one election cycle. To come from 200 seats to a majority is very rare indeed

    As with Johnson, it would, though, be more about who he’d been facing.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 3,295
    Foxy said:

    kyf_100 said:

    All the noises coming out of the Truss camp are that they're not going to offer further support for the ludicrous energy bills that are about to ruin people's lives and devastate businesses this winter.

    It's not just people choosing between heating or eating, or even pensioners freezing in their homes - although that will be a thing - it's the sheer number of businesses that are going to go to the wall.

    Would the last person still intending to vote Conservative by January please turn out the (very expensive to run) lights?

    One thing that maybe needed is a business furlough, perhaps after the Christmas break for a couple of months, where energy intensive businesses close until spring, with a bridging payment for owners and staff.

    1) it keeps these businesses going during the quiet season.

    2) it reduces energy demand at the critical period, freeing it up for domestic consumption.
    A decent proposal, and certainly better than anything we've heard from the government.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 9,936
    edited August 23

    Important thread:

    NEW: the collapse of emergency healthcare in England may be costing 500 lives every week, a close match for non-Covid excess deaths

    Let’s look at how we reach that conclusion, by taking a deep-dive into non-Covid excess mortality and its possible causes

    https://ft.com/content/f36c5daa-9c14-4a92-9136-19b26508b9d2


    https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1562004612172873728?s=20&t=HXvwp-7KD_d60f8CopIakw

    Entirely consistent with recent personal experience (the A&E wait, not the death). In my case 24h from accident to ward admission. After that they got their skates on, but it was a grim start.

    An excellent and detailed analysis. And, sadly, a brilliant example of Brandolini's Law (the effort required to counter bullshit is orders of magnitude greater than that required to generate it).

    The Telegraph came up with their crap in order to seed the idea that the excess deaths were due to lockdown. Didn't need any effort for Sarah Knapton to come up with it, and instantly publicised by the Usual Suspects (and added to the "we now know..." lines).

    John Burn-Murdoch put huge amounts of effort in to deep dive what is happening and where the excess deaths are and concluded it's down to the healthcare system collapse, especially in A&E and ambulances. What are the odds it gets the attention it deserves? Versus the odds that it vanishes under the Telegraph's crap?
    The healthcare system collapse now is due to lockdown though.

    Had we not locked down, had we allowed Covid to take its course, then we'd have had extra fatalities then, sure, but we wouldn't have trashed the future or the NHS for the long-term by abolishing everything else leading to mammoth waiting lists etc.

    People who would have died from Covid wouldn't be on any waiting lists now. People who survived, wouldn't be paying the price of lockdown.
    No, it's not.
    It's got very little to do with that. As Burn-Murdoch analyses.
    It's got most to do with the soaring waits in A&E and ambulances post-July 2021.
    But you will never accept that, because you hated lockdown (Can't blame you there; I hated it too) and therefore have to insist that bad things that happen must have come from it.
    The soaring waits in A&E etc are due to lockdown though. Had we not locked down then some of those demanding A&E and ambulances now would be dead, so less demand now, and the long waits in A&E and ambulances now are caused in no small part due to the cancellation of everything else to keep primarily the terminally sick alive for longer rather than dying to Covid so now the demands that should have been seen sooner are presenting themselves and the NHS is stretched to breaking point because it put too much effort into keeping Covid patients alive and not enough effort into everything else.

    Had the NHS been more tolerant of people dying from Covid, rather than bankrupting itself to deal with just that, then the ambulances etc would be coping better now.
  • I do not recall a time when a government has gone AWOL and entered it's own civil war, while the populace are frankly scared and angry at what is happening

    Truss is either saying that which she believes the membership want to hear to gain office, or she is the single most inept politician as she leads a kamikaze charge

    I have said and maintained the position that I just do not know the truth on this and September will either see a package that does address the concerns of the public or Truss will be the most unpopular new leader to take office

    While I remain a conservative supporter, I fully accept that at present Starmer is looking good for the next GE, though my only caution is a week is a long time in politics and I would add it would be wise for labour supporters to keep their feet on the ground as a lot can happen in 2 years

    I'm still CON in principle but I'm not voting for this shower of shyte at any foreseeable time!

    GRRRR 😡
    If you list all the slices of the Conservative family that have wandered off, stormed out in disgust or been shown the door for being insufficiently loyal to Boris/Brexit, who's left?

    It can't just be pensioner homeowners on the edges of the green belt, can it?
    Bart still seems to be onside. I sense HYUFD is wavering though …
    I quit supporting the Tories.

    If Truss wins, I like her, but I will wait to see if she honours her promises before rejoining the tent.

    If Sunak wins, I'll love my bet coming in (or what's left of it that hasn't been laid off already) but will start voting for the Liberal Democrats.
    I stand corrected!

    Labour majority is no longer impossible.

    If it happened Keir Starmer's strategy would be vindicated and he would be the best Labour performer in many years, particularly in one election cycle. To come from 200 seats to a majority is very rare indeed

    As with Johnson, it would, though, be more about who he’d been facing.
    Keir Starmer can never have credit because he is rubbish.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 55,056

    I do not recall a time when a government has gone AWOL and entered it's own civil war, while the populace are frankly scared and angry at what is happening

    Truss is either saying that which she believes the membership want to hear to gain office, or she is the single most inept politician as she leads a kamikaze charge

    I have said and maintained the position that I just do not know the truth on this and September will either see a package that does address the concerns of the public or Truss will be the most unpopular new leader to take office

    While I remain a conservative supporter, I fully accept that at present Starmer is looking good for the next GE, though my only caution is a week is a long time in politics and I would add it would be wise for labour supporters to keep their feet on the ground as a lot can happen in 2 years

    I'm still CON in principle but I'm not voting for this shower of shyte at any foreseeable time!

    GRRRR 😡
    If you list all the slices of the Conservative family that have wandered off, stormed out in disgust or been shown the door for being insufficiently loyal to Boris/Brexit, who's left?

    It can't just be pensioner homeowners on the edges of the green belt, can it?
    Bart still seems to be onside. I sense HYUFD is wavering though …
    I quit supporting the Tories.

    If Truss wins, I like her, but I will wait to see if she honours her promises before rejoining the tent.

    If Sunak wins, I'll love my bet coming in (or what's left of it that hasn't been laid off already) but will start voting for the Liberal Democrats.
    I stand corrected!

    Labour majority is no longer impossible.

    If it happened Keir Starmer's strategy would be vindicated and he would be the best Labour performer in many years, particularly in one election cycle. To come from 200 seats to a majority is very rare indeed

    As with Johnson, it would, though, be more about who he’d been facing.
    He hasn't been facing anybody for weeks thanks to the idiotic leadership campaign
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 2,174

    I do not recall a time when a government has gone AWOL and entered it's own civil war, while the populace are frankly scared and angry at what is happening

    Truss is either saying that which she believes the membership want to hear to gain office, or she is the single most inept politician as she leads a kamikaze charge

    I have said and maintained the position that I just do not know the truth on this and September will either see a package that does address the concerns of the public or Truss will be the most unpopular new leader to take office

    While I remain a conservative supporter, I fully accept that at present Starmer is looking good for the next GE, though my only caution is a week is a long time in politics and I would add it would be wise for labour supporters to keep their feet on the ground as a lot can happen in 2 years

    I'm still CON in principle but I'm not voting for this shower of shyte at any foreseeable time!

    GRRRR 😡
    If you list all the slices of the Conservative family that have wandered off, stormed out in disgust or been shown the door for being insufficiently loyal to Boris/Brexit, who's left?

    It can't just be pensioner homeowners on the edges of the green belt, can it?
    Bart still seems to be onside. I sense HYUFD is wavering though …
    Plaid Cymru should add too the wavering by standing a candidate in Epping!
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 27,608

    Important thread:

    NEW: the collapse of emergency healthcare in England may be costing 500 lives every week, a close match for non-Covid excess deaths

    Let’s look at how we reach that conclusion, by taking a deep-dive into non-Covid excess mortality and its possible causes

    https://ft.com/content/f36c5daa-9c14-4a92-9136-19b26508b9d2


    https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1562004612172873728?s=20&t=HXvwp-7KD_d60f8CopIakw

    Entirely consistent with recent personal experience (the A&E wait, not the death). In my case 24h from accident to ward admission. After that they got their skates on, but it was a grim start.

    An excellent and detailed analysis. And, sadly, a brilliant example of Brandolini's Law (the effort required to counter bullshit is orders of magnitude greater than that required to generate it).

    The Telegraph came up with their crap in order to seed the idea that the excess deaths were due to lockdown. Didn't need any effort for Sarah Knapton to come up with it, and instantly publicised by the Usual Suspects (and added to the "we now know..." lines).

    John Burn-Murdoch put huge amounts of effort in to deep dive what is happening and where the excess deaths are and concluded it's down to the healthcare system collapse, especially in A&E and ambulances. What are the odds it gets the attention it deserves? Versus the odds that it vanishes under the Telegraph's crap?
    The healthcare system collapse now is due to lockdown though.

    Had we not locked down, had we allowed Covid to take its course, then we'd have had extra fatalities then, sure, but we wouldn't have trashed the future or the NHS for the long-term by abolishing everything else leading to mammoth waiting lists etc.

    People who would have died from Covid wouldn't be on any waiting lists now. People who survived, wouldn't be paying the price of lockdown.
    Of course we would have trashed the NHS. Even more so than actually happened. Unless you are suggesting that, as part of your policy, we should simply refuse to treat anyone who had covid and let them die in the streets then not locking down would have increased hospital admissions massively.

    You really are ridiculous on this subject.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 19,569

    The comparison is November 1990. Thatcha brought down by the ludicrous poll tax and her own sneering arrogance to her colleagues. Millions of punters with unpayable and unfair bills.

    Major got a bounce because he said "no more Poll Tax". What Truss is doing would have been like Major coming in having repeatedly and condescendingly said he doesn't believe in handouts and then refusing to intervene, telling people that they should get a better job or work harder to pay the bill.

    Kinnock would have been "awight" had that happened. As Starmer will be.

    Your posting on this issue is becoming a waste of your time and ours. You've predicted that Truss will do nothing on COL. Others have predicted that she'll do a range of things. We have no fresh information either way, so until we do, there's really no point in continuing to churn out your endlessly negative drivel.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 10,520

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Important thread:

    NEW: the collapse of emergency healthcare in England may be costing 500 lives every week, a close match for non-Covid excess deaths

    Let’s look at how we reach that conclusion, by taking a deep-dive into non-Covid excess mortality and its possible causes

    https://ft.com/content/f36c5daa-9c14-4a92-9136-19b26508b9d2


    https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1562004612172873728?s=20&t=HXvwp-7KD_d60f8CopIakw

    Entirely consistent with recent personal experience (the A&E wait, not the death). In my case 24h from accident to ward admission. After that they got their skates on, but it was a grim start.

    If we have a cold winter with a significant number of pensioners not putting on their heating then the NHS will collapse.
    Another way to cut waiting lists. /cynic

    Allowing Covid to take its course naturally would have been kinder than having people freeze because theres's no money left as it was all spunked on stopping Covid.
    The energy inflation is caused by the Russia sanctions and war on Ukraine, not covid.

    The simplest way to solve it is to end the sanctions, which effectively means abandoning Ukraine.

    I am impressed that no one politically significant is advocating that.
    The energy inflation is caused by the Russia sanctions, I totally agree with that, and I agree with you that no one politically significant advocating ending the sanctions is a good and impressive thing.

    However just as Gordon Brown was to blame for the poor state of the fiscal situation before the GFC even hit, which meant we were utterly exposed when the GFC hit, so too the catastrophic f**k up to the Covid response meant the NHS etc were already on their knees before Russia invaded Ukraine. The roof was ripped off in the response to the prior storm and there was no time to fix it before this storm happened.

    Had Covid been allowed to take its course, Sweden style, then we'd have gone into the energy/Putin/inflation crisis with much less debt, much less Quantitative Easing, and much smaller waiting lists in the NHS.
    No, that would not have been the case. Whitty explains here:

    https://twitter.com/bmay/status/1560567875110178817?t=1kZJjn_plDYi2Cc6lDb5nw&s=19

    The waiting lists grew as elective activity was diverted to surge capacity. The expansion of ICU was by converting operating theatres and staff into overflow ICU. The surgical wards became respiratory wards etc.

    Surge capacity in the NHS comes from reduced elective capacity as there is no slack in the
    system. Redundancy and resilience is sacrificed in the name of efficiency in the NHS, as it is in so many British institutions, making them very fragile when a storm hits.
    Yes and that was the response of lockdown. Two years of nothing much but surge capacity while surgical wards were cancelled.

    Had we not had lockdown, then the surge capacity would have been exceeded, leading to more deaths, which by itself takes people off waiting lists (dead people don't appear on waiting lists) and then the pandemic would have been over sooner, so less need for surge capacity, so operations would have been able to be resumed, so again shorter waiting lists.
    That's nonsensical.

    If you hadn't had lockdown/voluntary adherence to public health advice with similar effect then more people would have caught Covid, more people would have required hospital treatment for Covid, and the hospitals would have been full of Covid patients for longer, leading to less other operations or treatments being performed.

    So the waiting list situation would have been worse, even without considering the people with long-term health effects from Covid requiring ongoing treatment, due to lung scarring or heart damage.

    Now, it's not unreasonable to argue that freedom from the tyranny of laws regulating who can visit your house is worth the consequent extra deaths and extra people on NHS waiting lists. Principles are worth fighting for, and I support the choice of Ukraine's people to fight for the principles of their independence, despite the suffering of the war.

    But you lose all credibility by trying to argue that there wouldn't have been a price to pay for your principles in this instance.
  • Important thread:

    NEW: the collapse of emergency healthcare in England may be costing 500 lives every week, a close match for non-Covid excess deaths

    Let’s look at how we reach that conclusion, by taking a deep-dive into non-Covid excess mortality and its possible causes

    https://ft.com/content/f36c5daa-9c14-4a92-9136-19b26508b9d2


    https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1562004612172873728?s=20&t=HXvwp-7KD_d60f8CopIakw

    Entirely consistent with recent personal experience (the A&E wait, not the death). In my case 24h from accident to ward admission. After that they got their skates on, but it was a grim start.

    An excellent and detailed analysis. And, sadly, a brilliant example of Brandolini's Law (the effort required to counter bullshit is orders of magnitude greater than that required to generate it).

    The Telegraph came up with their crap in order to seed the idea that the excess deaths were due to lockdown. Didn't need any effort for Sarah Knapton to come up with it, and instantly publicised by the Usual Suspects (and added to the "we now know..." lines).

    John Burn-Murdoch put huge amounts of effort in to deep dive what is happening and where the excess deaths are and concluded it's down to the healthcare system collapse, especially in A&E and ambulances. What are the odds it gets the attention it deserves? Versus the odds that it vanishes under the Telegraph's crap?
    The healthcare system collapse now is due to lockdown though.

    Had we not locked down, had we allowed Covid to take its course, then we'd have had extra fatalities then, sure, but we wouldn't have trashed the future or the NHS for the long-term by abolishing everything else leading to mammoth waiting lists etc.

    People who would have died from Covid wouldn't be on any waiting lists now. People who survived, wouldn't be paying the price of lockdown.
    Of course we would have trashed the NHS. Even more so than actually happened. Unless you are suggesting that, as part of your policy, we should simply refuse to treat anyone who had covid and let them die in the streets then not locking down would have increased hospital admissions massively.

    You really are ridiculous on this subject.
    Bart is like binary, either completely right or completely wrong
  • @Richard_Tyndall how are you old chap
  • Labour majority is no longer impossible.

    If it happened Keir Starmer's strategy would be vindicated and he would be the best Labour performer in many years, particularly in one election cycle. To come from 200 seats to a majority is very rare indeed

    I still really struggle to see it. Writing off Scotland for Labour (which I think is reasonable) and noting that Labour already have more than half the seats in Wales, well over 100 of the gains need to come in England. Regaining everything they lost in England in 2019 doesn't even get them halfway there.

    Not saying it's impossible, but the by-elections and local elections don't yet hint at that sort of surge.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 9,936
    edited August 23

    Important thread:

    NEW: the collapse of emergency healthcare in England may be costing 500 lives every week, a close match for non-Covid excess deaths

    Let’s look at how we reach that conclusion, by taking a deep-dive into non-Covid excess mortality and its possible causes

    https://ft.com/content/f36c5daa-9c14-4a92-9136-19b26508b9d2


    https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1562004612172873728?s=20&t=HXvwp-7KD_d60f8CopIakw

    Entirely consistent with recent personal experience (the A&E wait, not the death). In my case 24h from accident to ward admission. After that they got their skates on, but it was a grim start.

    An excellent and detailed analysis. And, sadly, a brilliant example of Brandolini's Law (the effort required to counter bullshit is orders of magnitude greater than that required to generate it).

    The Telegraph came up with their crap in order to seed the idea that the excess deaths were due to lockdown. Didn't need any effort for Sarah Knapton to come up with it, and instantly publicised by the Usual Suspects (and added to the "we now know..." lines).

    John Burn-Murdoch put huge amounts of effort in to deep dive what is happening and where the excess deaths are and concluded it's down to the healthcare system collapse, especially in A&E and ambulances. What are the odds it gets the attention it deserves? Versus the odds that it vanishes under the Telegraph's crap?
    The healthcare system collapse now is due to lockdown though.

    Had we not locked down, had we allowed Covid to take its course, then we'd have had extra fatalities then, sure, but we wouldn't have trashed the future or the NHS for the long-term by abolishing everything else leading to mammoth waiting lists etc.

    People who would have died from Covid wouldn't be on any waiting lists now. People who survived, wouldn't be paying the price of lockdown.
    Of course we would have trashed the NHS. Even more so than actually happened. Unless you are suggesting that, as part of your policy, we should simply refuse to treat anyone who had covid and let them die in the streets then not locking down would have increased hospital admissions massively.

    You really are ridiculous on this subject.
    We should have triaged and treated everyone with Covid as well as we could.

    The concept of triage is not new or ridiculous.

    PS yes that would mean some people might be triaged and then told "I'm sorry, there's nothing we can do for you" but I hate to break this to you but that is exactly what did happen anyway during the pandemic, for Covid and for other stuff. So if you think everyone always gets treated for everything under every circumstances no matter what then you're the one being ridiculous.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 29,179

    Important thread:

    NEW: the collapse of emergency healthcare in England may be costing 500 lives every week, a close match for non-Covid excess deaths

    Let’s look at how we reach that conclusion, by taking a deep-dive into non-Covid excess mortality and its possible causes

    https://ft.com/content/f36c5daa-9c14-4a92-9136-19b26508b9d2


    https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1562004612172873728?s=20&t=HXvwp-7KD_d60f8CopIakw

    Entirely consistent with recent personal experience (the A&E wait, not the death). In my case 24h from accident to ward admission. After that they got their skates on, but it was a grim start.

    An excellent and detailed analysis. And, sadly, a brilliant example of Brandolini's Law (the effort required to counter bullshit is orders of magnitude greater than that required to generate it).

    The Telegraph came up with their crap in order to seed the idea that the excess deaths were due to lockdown. Didn't need any effort for Sarah Knapton to come up with it, and instantly publicised by the Usual Suspects (and added to the "we now know..." lines).

    John Burn-Murdoch put huge amounts of effort in to deep dive what is happening and where the excess deaths are and concluded it's down to the healthcare system collapse, especially in A&E and ambulances. What are the odds it gets the attention it deserves? Versus the odds that it vanishes under the Telegraph's crap?
    The healthcare system collapse now is due to lockdown though.

    Had we not locked down, had we allowed Covid to take its course, then we'd have had extra fatalities then, sure, but we wouldn't have trashed the future or the NHS for the long-term by abolishing everything else leading to mammoth waiting lists etc.

    People who would have died from Covid wouldn't be on any waiting lists now. People who survived, wouldn't be paying the price of lockdown.
    No, it's not.
    It's got very little to do with that. As Burn-Murdoch analyses.
    It's got most to do with the soaring waits in A&E and ambulances post-July 2021.
    But you will never accept that, because you hated lockdown (Can't blame you there; I hated it too) and therefore have to insist that bad things that happen must have come from it.
    The soaring waits in A&E etc are due to lockdown though. Had we not locked down then some of those demanding A&E and ambulances now would be dead, so less demand now, and the long waits in A&E and ambulances now are caused in no small part due to the cancellation of everything else to keep primarily the terminally sick alive for longer rather than dying to Covid so now the demands that should have been seen sooner are presenting themselves and the NHS is stretched to breaking point because it put too much effort into keeping Covid patients alive and not enough effort into everything else.

    Had the NHS been more tolerant of people dying from Covid, rather than bankrupting itself to deal with just that, then the ambulances etc would be coping better now.
    The NHS might have been more tolerant of people dying from Covid but I doubt the general public would've been. And newspapers like the Mail would've had a field day!
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,192

    im not voting for the baggage and twat circus that comes with Labour.

    But you voted for the twat and baggage circus that came with BoZo
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,235

    I do not recall a time when a government has gone AWOL and entered it's own civil war, while the populace are frankly scared and angry at what is happening

    Truss is either saying that which she believes the membership want to hear to gain office, or she is the single most inept politician as she leads a kamikaze charge

    I have said and maintained the position that I just do not know the truth on this and September will either see a package that does address the concerns of the public or Truss will be the most unpopular new leader to take office

    While I remain a conservative supporter, I fully accept that at present Starmer is looking good for the next GE, though my only caution is a week is a long time in politics and I would add it would be wise for labour supporters to keep their feet on the ground as a lot can happen in 2 years

    I'm still CON in principle but I'm not voting for this shower of shyte at any foreseeable time!

    GRRRR 😡
    If you list all the slices of the Conservative family that have wandered off, stormed out in disgust or been shown the door for being insufficiently loyal to Boris/Brexit, who's left?

    It can't just be pensioner homeowners on the edges of the green belt, can it?
    Bart still seems to be onside. I sense HYUFD is wavering though …
    I quit supporting the Tories.

    If Truss wins, I like her, but I will wait to see if she honours her promises before rejoining the tent.

    If Sunak wins, I'll love my bet coming in (or what's left of it that hasn't been laid off already) but will start voting for the Liberal Democrats.
    I stand corrected!

    Labour majority is no longer impossible.

    If it happened Keir Starmer's strategy would be vindicated and he would be the best Labour performer in many years, particularly in one election cycle. To come from 200 seats to a majority is very rare indeed

    As with Johnson, it would, though, be more about who he’d been facing.
    Keir Starmer can never have credit because he is rubbish.
    He’s not rubbish. Expunging the Trots and antisemites has allowed him to capitalise on the unprecedented incompetence of the incumbents. But he’s never going to stir the soul with his inspirational rhetoric.
This discussion has been closed.