Categories
I’m beginning to be concerned about my CON poll lead bet – politicalbetting.com
I’m beginning to be concerned about my CON poll lead bet – politicalbetting.com
As those who visit the site regularly will know I have a largish bet on the Tories recording a poll lead during September. My reasoning has always been that the new Conservative leader, which we will know on September 6th, is likely to see something of a bounce for the party in the period immediately afterwards.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
Or am I misremembering. Are you thinking of trading out ?
I don't remember that Labour internal elections were that damaging. And still less the Lib Dem ones. The most savage comment that I remember from Lib/Lib Dem campaigns was when David Steel likened John Pardoe to Tigger, fighting with a tablecloth.
NEW: the collapse of emergency healthcare in England may be costing 500 lives every week, a close match for non-Covid excess deaths
Let’s look at how we reach that conclusion, by taking a deep-dive into non-Covid excess mortality and its possible causes
https://ft.com/content/f36c5daa-9c14-4a92-9136-19b26508b9d2
https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1562004612172873728?s=20&t=HXvwp-7KD_d60f8CopIakw
Entirely consistent with recent personal experience (the A&E wait, not the death). In my case 24h from accident to ward admission. After that they got their skates on, but it was a grim start.
Major got a bounce because he said "no more Poll Tax". What Truss is doing would have been like Major coming in having repeatedly and condescendingly said he doesn't believe in handouts and then refusing to intervene, telling people that they should get a better job or work harder to pay the bill.
Kinnock would have been "awight" had that happened. As Starmer will be.
1.08 Liz Truss 93%
13.5 Rishi Sunak 7%
Next Conservative leader
1.07 Liz Truss 93%
13.5 Rishi Sunak 7%
Tonight, 7pm, Birmingham.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4XSCXoS0ISQ (Times Radio)
(Other downstreaming links will become available)
It's not just people choosing between heating or eating, or even pensioners freezing in their homes - although that will be a thing - it's the sheer number of businesses that are going to go to the wall.
Would the last person still intending to vote Conservative by January please turn out the (very expensive to run) lights?
It was based on history? In history British Politics was smarter - PMs didn’t surround themselves with drooling sycophants instead packed their governments with the best talent they could, nor did PMs purge all their parties best moderates in one fell power grab.
So historically this country has never sent Bubble from AbFab to the Palace to touch hands before.
As you mention that Gordon Brown moment “Election? No I wasn’t planning an election”, Starmer coming out with a freeze voters of all parties loved, and Team Truss saying no, tax cuts instead, is worked like that old Gordon Brown moment?
Is the moment Team Truss refused Starmer’s Plan and insisted on tax cuts instead, the moment she killed off your bet? And maybe a lot more besides.
I should like to apologise to you on behalf of the British Government. They are a bit busy at present with one thing and another, as I am sure you will understand.
Heck! What am I doing? It should be young HY apologising, not me....
She works long hours in a new full-time job. She is still in her probationary period. She literally does not have time to sit in the receptionist's office to get information the surgery has promised her.
If the matter is urgent they should be pulling their finger out to tell her. If she gets no joy today, I will get a letter from her authorising me to receive the information and go and sit there all day if I have to to get it out of them. Though I should not have to do this. Her health is a private matter and it is absurd that we need to go through this rigmarole.
The surgery seems to have the attitude that patients have nothing else to do all day. Nor do they seem to realise that telling someone they need an "urgent referral" but then not telling them anything else is going to worry them like hell.
Appalling.
Edit - a broadly similar 2007, 2016 or 2019 pattern might see low single digit labour leads in September so you're hanging out for outliers. Youd probably have been fine but for the obvious 3 point swing in the last week
There is only one language that the NHS/GPs understand and it is not quietly waiting on the phone or for a call back.
You need to threaten them with whatever is to hand. Complaint to the NHS or ombudsman. Or even the police.
Not so long ago I stood in the middle of a hospital ward during the consultant's round and threatened to call the police if treatment was not forthcoming (for my mother). It forthcame.
One was to scuttle the Poll Tax. To be fair, that wasn't rocket science- by November 1990 Maggie was about the only (but utterly formidable) Conservative who didn't want to do that.
The other was to change the tone of the Premiership. More touchy-feely, less kicky-testes. That was enough to make the government look new. Importantly, Maggie's departure was enough to make both those points obvious and so the bounce happened when she went not when he arrived. Major's contribution was to Not Stuff It Up. Undertated.
Truss's tone is Norfolk's third best Boris Johnson tribute act. (Norfolk's best BoJo tribute act is an actual scarecrow called Boris in a field just outside Walsingham.) And her only policy difference seems to be No Tax Rises. Without saying what spending will be cut to match, that is pure shysterdom. (Oh, and the effect of freezing thresholds, which will be massive, doesn't get talked about.)
Truss ought to get a new leader bounce. Even Brown and May got bounces, and they were really poor politicians. But it is possible that Truss is even worse than them.
August 28th - new energy price cap
September 5th - Truss becomes PM
September 21st - a "budget" that offers nothing to those who cannot now afford both food and energy
We now by know that she has zero principles beyond her own self-interest and it will be a political disaster if she doesn't. I don't see the case for her not giving everyone loads of money.
We just have to hope the cavalry arent bringing smallpox riddled blankets
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1562015755230711809?s=21&t=rmYqRA2kvZ60HylkAOea6Q
Johnson offered the Tories without Thatcherism in 2019, and won an 80 seat majority. I think the voters now want neither the Tories nor Thatcherism. That leaves Truss - a Tory offering a third rate Thatcher tribute act - in a sticky position.
Second, my memory of the Covid experience was that it took a couple of goes to get there. There were some inadequate packages before the Big Bazooka. We've already seen the same on fuel bills (remember the £1000 loan to be repaid over five years?) If I had to guess, HMG will get there and not many people will freeze, but it will be a messy scramble.
My employer is one of the fortunate ones who can take measures to avoid the cost but there’s lots that can’t and will fold.
Those that try and ride it out will have to pass the cost to consumers, who have so much disposable income.
Inflation, you are the Whore of Babylon.
1) it keeps these businesses going during the quiet season.
2) it reduces energy demand at the critical period, freeing it up for domestic consumption.
The Treasury don't need to incur extra billions because of media drivel....
Truss is either saying that which she believes the membership want to hear to gain office, or she is the single most inept politician as she leads a kamikaze charge
I have said and maintained the position that I just do not know the truth on this and September will either see a package that does address the concerns of the public or Truss will be the most unpopular new leader to take office
While I remain a conservative supporter, I fully accept that at present Starmer is looking good for the next GE, though my only caution is a week is a long time in politics and I would add it would be wise for labour supporters to keep their feet on the ground as a lot can happen in 2 years
Allowing Covid to take its course naturally would have been kinder than having people freeze because theres's no money left as it was all spunked on stopping Covid.
Tell me the truth sir, someone just bought it
Say mr. whispers! Here come the click of dice
Roulette and blackjacks - gonna build us a paradise
Larger than life and twice as ugly
If we have to live there, you'll have to drug me
Maybe these luxuries can only compensate
For all the cards you were dealt at the hands of fate
So tell me
Tell me! tell me! How to be a millionaire
Tell me! tell me! How to be a millionaire!
Millionaire! Billionaire! Trillionaire!
Hardly surprising if you might consider
Loyalties go to the highest of bidders
What's my opinion? I'd give you ten to one
Give me a million, a franchise on fun
But there are millions who often get nowhere
And there's just one secret I think you should share
Maybe these luxuries can only compensate
For all the cards you were dealt at the hands of fate
So tell me
Tell me! tell me! How to be a millionaire
Tell me! tell me! How to be a millionaire!
Who wants to be millionaire?
I do! - I don't! - I do!
Who wants to be millionaire?
I do! - I don't!
I've seen the future and I can't afford it
Truss is unlikely to get a bounce from changing the direction of the government, since she doesn't seem to want to change the direction much. It's not clear that there's a Truss-ism to rival Johnson-ism, so the biggest contrast she can strike is between Johnson's laziness and fecklessness and her fierce commitment and competence. Truss as Johnson 2.0, the upgraded model with fewer bugs and a smarter user interface.
Johnson, in Isaiah Berlin's terms, was a hedgehog rather than a fox. He had one big idea - Get Brexit Done - and his main act of leadership was to sign off on whatever was necessary to do that as quickly as possible (with, some might say, little regard for the details). The current challenge isn't like that at all. It's a complex, multi-faceted problem that involves everything from our long-term energy supply, short-term economic crisis management, generation-defining geopolitics, industrial relations across multiple sectors, climate change in both its immediate and longer-term consequences, the possible collapse of the multi-decade house price trend, and the role of monetary policy. And this is just what you need to understand in order to get a sense of the problem - the immediate crisis is the biggest fall in real-term incomes in a century, the possibility of blackouts, and fuel poverty at levels that could cause thousands of deaths.
Truss's job isn't to show "leadership" on one big issue. It will be to assemble a talented team who can stay on top of their briefs in each area of the omni-crisis, managing well and staying coordinated with each other. She will have to take the big calls on which things can be given priority, and that will involve upsetting some people who get left out. The strategy will have to be clear and consistent.
Unfortunately, we're not seeing much of this so far. "Clear and consistent" is not a good description of her campaign thus far, and the barrel scrapings being mooted as cabinet ministers are not inspiring much confidence in her ability to put together a team capable of facing up to the challenge. If this continues, she runs the risk of being found out quite quickly.
She's said repeatedly that further support would be available, which is inevitable, but that her priority is tax cuts and cheaper, reliable fuel.
That is the appropriate response. Giving support as the priority because you always believe support is the answer is the wrong thing to do, support should be a safety net where its needed not a way of life. Short-term support will be necessary and will be outlined in an emergency budget no doubt, but the long-term solutions should be tax cuts and cheaper, reliable fuel.
To be clear - this is largely not the fault of the staff, but of the system they are being asked to work under - over stretched and under resourced.
The simplest way to solve it is to end the sanctions, which effectively means abandoning Ukraine.
I am impressed that no one politically significant is advocating that.
Once the leadership election is over a new Chancellor will be put in place, then announcements will be made.
I'm not kidding when I say there is no money left and zero leeway regardless of the fantasies Truss is talking about...
GRRRR 😡
The Telegraph came up with their crap in order to seed the idea that the excess deaths were due to lockdown. Didn't need any effort for Sarah Knapton to come up with it, and instantly publicised by the Usual Suspects (and added to the "we now know..." lines).
John Burn-Murdoch put huge amounts of effort in to deep dive what is happening and where the excess deaths are and concluded it's down to the healthcare system collapse, especially in A&E and ambulances. What are the odds it gets the attention it deserves? Versus the odds that it vanishes under the Telegraph's crap?
Thankfully, the European resolve over Ukraine is still holding - because everyone knows the mad man isn’t going to stop with that country if left unchecked.
However just as Gordon Brown was to blame for the poor state of the fiscal situation before the GFC even hit, which meant we were utterly exposed when the GFC hit, so too the catastrophic f**k up to the Covid response meant the NHS etc were already on their knees before Russia invaded Ukraine. The roof was ripped off in the response to the prior storm and there was no time to fix it before this storm happened.
Had Covid been allowed to take its course, Sweden style, then we'd have gone into the energy/Putin/inflation crisis with much less debt, much less Quantitative Easing, and much smaller waiting lists in the NHS.
She's either a very good liar or she's genuinely concerned though!
It can't just be pensioner homeowners on the edges of the green belt, can it?
Somethin’s gotta give.
Had we not locked down, had we allowed Covid to take its course, then we'd have had extra fatalities then, sure, but we wouldn't have trashed the future or the NHS for the long-term by abolishing everything else leading to mammoth waiting lists etc.
People who would have died from Covid wouldn't be on any waiting lists now. People who survived, wouldn't be paying the price of lockdown.
A number of commentators noticed that government actions had been done so as not to trigger various insurances. The fact that everyone claiming on such insurances at the same time would have just collapsed the insurance industry and left everyone without help seemed to pass the geniuses in the commentariat by….
If Truss wins, I like her, but I will wait to see if she honours her promises before rejoining the tent.
If Sunak wins, I'll love my bet coming in (or what's left of it that hasn't been laid off already) but will start voting for the Liberal Democrats.
https://twitter.com/bmay/status/1560567875110178817?t=1kZJjn_plDYi2Cc6lDb5nw&s=19
The waiting lists grew as elective activity was diverted to surge capacity. The expansion of ICU was by converting operating theatres and staff into overflow ICU. The surgical wards became respiratory wards etc.
Surge capacity in the NHS comes from reduced elective capacity as there is no slack in the
system. Redundancy and resilience is sacrificed in the name of efficiency in the NHS, as it is in so many British institutions, making them very fragile when a storm hits.
Very different circumstances in terms of likelihood of benefiting from a significant bounce.
There hasn't been any money left since 2002, that's the last time the budget was in balance, but ramping up taxes to the highest levels in 74 years hasn't led to a budget surplus either.
Some borrowing is necessary, regrettable but necessary, but reversing the unjustifiable tax hikes is absolutely necessary.
Cancelling Rishi's planned Income Tax cut to 16% giving money to those who aren't working for their income while National Insurance is ramped up will also free up some money for reversing tax hikes.
It's got very little to do with that. As Burn-Murdoch analyses.
It's got most to do with the soaring waits in A&E and ambulances post-July 2021.
But you will never accept that, because you hated lockdown (Can't blame you there; I hated it too) and therefore have to insist that bad things that happen must have come from it.
If it happened Keir Starmer's strategy would be vindicated and he would be the best Labour performer in many years, particularly in one election cycle. To come from 200 seats to a majority is very rare indeed
Hyper-partisan supporters (HYUFD, Big G) who have to stick with their team no matter what displays of instransigent incompetence are on offer.
Kulturkrieg Sonderkommados who live in palsied fear of woke and think that they'll have to share a swimming pool changing room with a statue or something.
Had we not had lockdown, then the surge capacity would have been exceeded, leading to more deaths, which by itself takes people off waiting lists (dead people don't appear on waiting lists) and then the pandemic would have been over sooner, so less need for surge capacity, so operations would have been able to be resumed, so again shorter waiting lists.
Had the NHS been more tolerant of people dying from Covid, rather than bankrupting itself to deal with just that, then the ambulances etc would be coping better now.
You really are ridiculous on this subject.
If you hadn't had lockdown/voluntary adherence to public health advice with similar effect then more people would have caught Covid, more people would have required hospital treatment for Covid, and the hospitals would have been full of Covid patients for longer, leading to less other operations or treatments being performed.
So the waiting list situation would have been worse, even without considering the people with long-term health effects from Covid requiring ongoing treatment, due to lung scarring or heart damage.
Now, it's not unreasonable to argue that freedom from the tyranny of laws regulating who can visit your house is worth the consequent extra deaths and extra people on NHS waiting lists. Principles are worth fighting for, and I support the choice of Ukraine's people to fight for the principles of their independence, despite the suffering of the war.
But you lose all credibility by trying to argue that there wouldn't have been a price to pay for your principles in this instance.
Not saying it's impossible, but the by-elections and local elections don't yet hint at that sort of surge.
The concept of triage is not new or ridiculous.
PS yes that would mean some people might be triaged and then told "I'm sorry, there's nothing we can do for you" but I hate to break this to you but that is exactly what did happen anyway during the pandemic, for Covid and for other stuff. So if you think everyone always gets treated for everything under every circumstances no matter what then you're the one being ridiculous.