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Can Truss lead the Tories to a general election victory? – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited August 21 in General
imageCan Truss lead the Tories to a general election victory? – politicalbetting.com

The big question that really has not been looked at much during the Conservative leadership campaign is how much the winner will actually help the party at the next general election.

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Comments

  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,648
    edited August 19
    Evening all. She will need to find a hook to bring back the extensive numbers of 2019 Con voters sitting on their hands and craft a narrative where shes not to blame for the incoming shitstorm.
    So, ummm, nope
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 2,876
    First, unlike Truss after the next GE.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,648

    First, unlike Truss after the next GE.

    Denied!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,258
    Yes.

    Will she is a harder question.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 6,778
    edited August 19
    The answer to the question is "yes". But not very likely perhaps.

    edit: snap! (okay, you win)
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,243
    YouGov, the only pollster to correctly weigh geographical sub-samples:

    London
    Lab 54%
    Con 19%
    LD 15%
    Grn 6%
    Ref 2%

    Rest of South
    Con 35%
    Lab 34%
    LD 16%
    Grn 7%
    Ref 5%

    Midlands and Wales
    Lab 39%
    Con 35%
    LD 10%
    Grn 4%
    Ref 4%
    PC 3%

    North
    Lab 50%
    Con 29%
    LD 10%
    Grn 8%
    Ref 2%

    Scotland
    SNP 51%
    Con 19%
    Lab 17%
    Grn 4%
    LD 4%
    Ref 3%

    (YouGov / The Times; Sample Size: 1809; Fieldwork: 9th - 10th August 2022)

    Pro-independence parties 55%
    Unionist parties 43%

    So, probably not.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,081
    Nothing is impossible, but in her case it's probably not that far off.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Dunno but with sks in the red corner it is all to play for. He really really needs to get less useless and start actually opposing. Now.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,081
    He's back !

    French President Emmanuel Macron spoke on the phone with Russian President Vladimir Putin for the first time in a while. They discussed, in particular, the situation at the Zaporizhzhia NPP occupied by the Russians, report Elysee Palace and Interfax with reference to the Kremlin
    https://twitter.com/Hromadske/status/1560664509605646336
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 19,527
    IshmaelZ said:

    Dunno but with sks in the red corner it is all to play for. He really really needs to get less useless and start actually opposing. Now.

    His energy proposal wasn't a bad start (I mean politically - I'm not sure whether it was the right approach economically). It still remains to be seen what Liz has for us on that front.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 6,778
    IshmaelZ said:

    Dunno but with sks in the red corner it is all to play for. He really really needs to get less useless and start actually opposing. Now.

    Is he still taking the knee?

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,081
    https://twitter.com/jseldin/status/1560655287928758272
    NEW US $775 million pkg for #Ukraine will include:
    - more ammo for #HIMARS, which have "really changed the dynamic on the battlefield"
    - 16 105mm #Howitzers & 36,000 artillery rounds...

    US pkg will also boost #Ukraine's surveillance capabilities with 15 #ScanEagle drones...

    additional High Speed AnitRadiar Missiles (#HARM) to "seek & destroy" Russian radar

    1,000 TOW missiles to counter #Russia|n armor...

    1,000 additional #Javelin missiles headed to #Ukraine as part of latest US security pkg, per a senior US defense official

    Also includes 2,000 anti armor rounds..
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 17,307
    Betfair next prime minister
    1.05 Liz Truss 95%
    19 Rishi Sunak 5%

    Next Conservative leader
    1.05 Liz Truss 95%
    19 Rishi Sunak 5%
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,243
    IshmaelZ said:

    Dunno but with sks in the red corner it is all to play for. He really really needs to get less useless and start actually opposing. Now.

    Agrees with Tories on far too much. He needs to differentiate.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,081
    China embraces denialism.

    ANYWHERE BUT HERE
    China now insists the pandemic didn’t start within its borders. Its scientists are publishing a flurry of papers pointing the finger elsewhere
    https://www.science.org/content/article/pandemic-start-anywhere-but-here-argue-papers-chinese-scientists-echoing-party-line
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 17,307
    Hustings tonight 7pm Manchester on GB News.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,081
    geoffw said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Dunno but with sks in the red corner it is all to play for. He really really needs to get less useless and start actually opposing. Now.

    Is he still taking the knee?

    Dunno, but the Tories are still taking the piss.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,648
    edited August 19
    Nigelb said:

    He's back !

    French President Emmanuel Macron spoke on the phone with Russian President Vladimir Putin for the first time in a while. They discussed, in particular, the situation at the Zaporizhzhia NPP occupied by the Russians, report Elysee Palace and Interfax with reference to the Kremlin
    https://twitter.com/Hromadske/status/1560664509605646336

    Stupidly allowing a joint call for iaea inspection so Putin looks like a problem solver not instigator. With Germany looking at Nord Stream 2 again it looks like the EU is going lukewarm on Ukraine
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,648
    All quiet at Zaporizhzhia thankfully. Long may it continue
  • A rare QTWAIY.

    Absolutely she can, but whether she will is an entirely different question.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 6,778
    Nigelb said:

    geoffw said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Dunno but with sks in the red corner it is all to play for. He really really needs to get less useless and start actually opposing. Now.

    Is he still taking the knee?

    Dunno, but the Tories are still taking the piss.
    They don't need nudging.

  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 7,120
    Nigelb said:

    He's back !

    French President Emmanuel Macron spoke on the phone with Russian President Vladimir Putin for the first time in a while. They discussed, in particular, the situation at the Zaporizhzhia NPP occupied by the Russians, report Elysee Palace and Interfax with reference to the Kremlin
    https://twitter.com/Hromadske/status/1560664509605646336

    It puts me in mind of when the police talk to the hostage taker. They always want to keep them on the line. My instinct would be to threaten Putin that he'll be held accountable if anything goes badly wrong there.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 3,994
    Nigelb said:

    geoffw said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Dunno but with sks in the red corner it is all to play for. He really really needs to get less useless and start actually opposing. Now.

    Is he still taking the knee?

    Dunno, but the Tories are still taking the piss.
    They can take the piss all they like but they seem genuinely rattled. They've played the "get out of jail" card by once again changing the leader and it doesn't seem to be working like they thought it would.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,243
    “Wales and Scotland aren’t nations, the UK should become a “unitary state” with devolution “evolved back”, and independence should be made “impossible”, an influential Tory peer has said.”

    https://nation.cymru/news/wales-and-scotland-not-nations-and-independence-should-be-made-impossible-says-lord-frost/

    Ho ho. As the end game approaches, the raw nerves are exposed.

    More please! I like a good spanking.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 24,345
    It could be argued it would be extraordinary were she not to, since the majority will be touching 100 with new boundaries.
    However, the situation isn't normal. It'll be all to play for. Depends if she prioritises Party unity, ideology, or the needs of the Nation.
    That question won't be revealed just yet, but will have to be addressed pdq.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 16,569

    Nigelb said:

    geoffw said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Dunno but with sks in the red corner it is all to play for. He really really needs to get less useless and start actually opposing. Now.

    Is he still taking the knee?

    Dunno, but the Tories are still taking the piss.
    They can take the piss all they like but they seem genuinely rattled. They've played the "get out of jail" card by once again changing the leader and it doesn't seem to be working like they thought it would.
    The country is weaker, poorer and more divided than when they took over.

    Taken as a whole, the 2010-2024 era will go down in history as the worst since…well I can’t think when, really.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 6,778
    edited August 19

    Nigelb said:

    He's back !

    French President Emmanuel Macron spoke on the phone with Russian President Vladimir Putin for the first time in a while. They discussed, in particular, the situation at the Zaporizhzhia NPP occupied by the Russians, report Elysee Palace and Interfax with reference to the Kremlin
    https://twitter.com/Hromadske/status/1560664509605646336

    Stupidly allowing a joint call for iaea inspection so Putin looks like a problem solver not instigator. With Germany looking at Nord Stream 2 again it looks like the EU is going lukewarm on Ukraine
    Putin "stressed that the systematic shelling by the Ukrainian military of the territory of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant creates the danger of a large-scale catastrophe that could lead to radiation contamination of vast territories."

    eta https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/08/19/annoying-russian-questions-a78613
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 42,605
    FPT

    regarding bus fares - in London you can ride unlimited buses within 1 hour for £1.65, and £4.95 for a whole day.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 6,778

    Nigelb said:

    geoffw said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Dunno but with sks in the red corner it is all to play for. He really really needs to get less useless and start actually opposing. Now.

    Is he still taking the knee?

    Dunno, but the Tories are still taking the piss.
    They can take the piss all they like but they seem genuinely rattled. They've played the "get out of jail" card by once again changing the leader and it doesn't seem to be working like they thought it would.
    Too early to say.

  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 24,345
    edited August 19

    FPT

    regarding bus fares - in London you can ride unlimited buses within 1 hour for £1.65, and £4.95 for a whole day.

    And yet it's £7.60 return into Newcastle from here. And £5.40 single. Under 12 miles.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 27,977

    FPT

    regarding bus fares - in London you can ride unlimited buses within 1 hour for £1.65, and £4.95 for a whole day.

    Very similar in Edinburgh and the linked Lothian bus routes under Lothian Buses.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 27,977

    “Wales and Scotland aren’t nations, the UK should become a “unitary state” with devolution “evolved back”, and independence should be made “impossible”, an influential Tory peer has said.”

    https://nation.cymru/news/wales-and-scotland-not-nations-and-independence-should-be-made-impossible-says-lord-frost/

    Ho ho. As the end game approaches, the raw nerves are exposed.

    More please! I like a good spanking.

    This the chap who was happy to use the European institutions to block Scottish health legislation?

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2014/apr/30/minimum-alcohol-price-european-court-scottish-judges
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 30,105

    Nigelb said:

    He's back !

    French President Emmanuel Macron spoke on the phone with Russian President Vladimir Putin for the first time in a while. They discussed, in particular, the situation at the Zaporizhzhia NPP occupied by the Russians, report Elysee Palace and Interfax with reference to the Kremlin
    https://twitter.com/Hromadske/status/1560664509605646336

    Stupidly allowing a joint call for iaea inspection so Putin looks like a problem solver not instigator. With Germany looking at Nord Stream 2 again it looks like the EU is going lukewarm on Ukraine
    The fun bit will be if Germany tries to open Nord Stream 2 - the US sanctions would mean that any German companies involved would end up on the sanctioned list as well.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 27,977
    CatMan said:

    FPT

    regarding bus fares - in London you can ride unlimited buses within 1 hour for £1.65, and £4.95 for a whole day.

    How strange. Can't think why that would be...

    "Unlike those in the rest of the United Kingdom, the bus services in London, although still ultimately privatised, were not deregulated to the same extent. In London, details of routes, fares and services levels were still specified by public bodies, with the right to run the services contracted to private companies on a tendered basis. "

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Privatisation_of_London_bus_services
    How curious, there is this too:

    'On 1 April 1996 Lothian Regional Council was abolished. Although the then Conservative government had sought to have the company privatised, this was resisted by local politicians and ownership of the company passed to the new City of Edinburgh Council and the three neighbouring councils. The LRT identity remained until January 2000, when the company was renamed Lothian Buses plc, the LRT logo changing to 'Lothian'.'

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Lothian_Buses#1956_to_present

    Must be some link to fares there, if we only knew what it was.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 10,494
    A lot of Tory GE2019 voters are currently don't know. This means they are open to being won back.

    I think there's a lot of potential. Labour haven't managed to pin the blame for the crisis onto the Tories, so it's not yet too late to turn things around.
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,335

    “Wales and Scotland aren’t nations, the UK should become a “unitary state” with devolution “evolved back”, and independence should be made “impossible”, an influential Tory peer has said.”

    https://nation.cymru/news/wales-and-scotland-not-nations-and-independence-should-be-made-impossible-says-lord-frost/

    Ho ho. As the end game approaches, the raw nerves are exposed.

    More please! I like a good spanking.

    "Influential Tory peer"?????

    They really mean Boris Johnson's top lickspittle.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 27,977

    “Wales and Scotland aren’t nations, the UK should become a “unitary state” with devolution “evolved back”, and independence should be made “impossible”, an influential Tory peer has said.”

    https://nation.cymru/news/wales-and-scotland-not-nations-and-independence-should-be-made-impossible-says-lord-frost/

    Ho ho. As the end game approaches, the raw nerves are exposed.

    More please! I like a good spanking.

    “Meanwhile, I urge people in England not to give in to the ‘let them go’ argument. Partly because the break-up of the country would be a massive national humiliation. In Europe and beyond, it would be seen as a comeuppance which they would exploit to the full."

    Quite. First thing he reaches for is Brexit.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 7,120

    FPT

    regarding bus fares - in London you can ride unlimited buses within 1 hour for £1.65, and £4.95 for a whole day.

    Coming out of the Mayor's funds?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 16,569
    Bus privatisation has been a slam dunk disaster.

    Water privatisation has likely been a disaster.

    Train privatisation can be argued either way I think.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 7,120
    CatMan said:

    FPT

    regarding bus fares - in London you can ride unlimited buses within 1 hour for £1.65, and £4.95 for a whole day.

    How strange. Can't think why that would be...

    "Unlike those in the rest of the United Kingdom, the bus services in London, although still ultimately privatised, were not deregulated to the same extent. In London, details of routes, fares and services levels were still specified by public bodies, with the right to run the services contracted to private companies on a tendered basis. "

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Privatisation_of_London_bus_services
    I have no particular objection to privatised bus services.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 7,120

    Bus privatisation has been a slam dunk disaster.

    Water privatisation has likely been a disaster.

    Train privatisation can be argued either way I think.

    I don't see a problem with private bus services, or coach travel for that matter, if there is no public subsidy.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 27,599

    Bus privatisation has been a slam dunk disaster.

    Water privatisation has likely been a disaster.

    Train privatisation can be argued either way I think.

    It us interesting that both the Post Office and the trains were privatisations that Mrs Thatcher considered to be beyond the pale. I personally think that Rail privatisation has been a success but could have been so much better had it not been botched by Major. On the Post Office I think it is a stupid idea (privatisation I mean). There are certain services that work better if run by a Government.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 32,012

    Bus privatisation has been a slam dunk disaster.

    Water privatisation has likely been a disaster.

    Train privatisation can be argued either way I think.

    The 'disaster' for bus services was the free pensioner pass. Great for passengers, terrible for services.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,287

    A lot of Tory GE2019 voters are currently don't know. This means they are open to being won back.

    I think there's a lot of potential. Labour haven't managed to pin the blame for the crisis onto the Tories, so it's not yet too late to turn things around.

    A lot of CON GE2019 VOTERS were not Tories but were simply opposed to Corbyn
    .
  • TazTaz Posts: 6,204
    dixiedean said:

    FPT

    regarding bus fares - in London you can ride unlimited buses within 1 hour for £1.65, and £4.95 for a whole day.

    And yet it's £7.60 return into Newcastle from here. And £5.40 single. Under 12 miles.
    While you’ve still got the service. The local news is on at the moment talking about major cuts to bus services in the region.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 27,599

    Bus privatisation has been a slam dunk disaster.

    Water privatisation has likely been a disaster.

    Train privatisation can be argued either way I think.

    Oh and by the way, having been away at the end of the previous thread can I just say that I think it is sad that you think it is extremist for someone to believe that our elected Parliament should be able to make its own laws. You may be happy that the EU was able to make laws over this land without Parliament being able to prevent them but I don't think it is extremist to hold an alternative view to that.

    Perhaps it is your democratic compass that is skewed rather than mine.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,287
    IshmaelZ said:

    Dunn
    o but with sks in the red corner it is all to play for. He really really needs to get less useless and start actually opposing. Now.

    Another PB Tory underestimating Starmer
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 55,045
    I simply have no idea if Truss can win GE 2024 and only time will tell

    However having a PM and a cabinet and the HOC back in couple of weeks should be very interesting, even entertaining, especially at PMQ's
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 104,989
    No PM since universal suffrage has won a 5th consecutive general election for their party. Only 1, Major in 1992, won after more than 10 years of his party in power.

    So the odds favour Starmer not Truss, even if Truss gets a bounce as new PM and RedfieldWilton has her narrowly ahead of Starmer as preferred PM
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 55,045
    HYUFD said:

    No PM since universal suffrage has won a 5th consecutive general election for their party. Only 1, Major in 1992, won after more than 10 years of his party in power.

    So the odds favour Starmer not Truss, even if Truss gets a bounce as new PM and RedfieldWilton has her narrowly ahead of Starmer as preferred PM

    You would think so, but these are not normal times, indeed far from it, and the fall out from the war in Ukraine could dominate for years to come
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 104,989

    “Wales and Scotland aren’t nations, the UK should become a “unitary state” with devolution “evolved back”, and independence should be made “impossible”, an influential Tory peer has said.”

    https://nation.cymru/news/wales-and-scotland-not-nations-and-independence-should-be-made-impossible-says-lord-frost/

    Ho ho. As the end game approaches, the raw nerves are exposed.

    More please! I like a good spanking.

    Just keep refusing indyref2 for a generation is all Starmer and Truss need to do
  • stodgestodge Posts: 10,971

    A lot of Tory GE2019 voters are currently don't know. This means they are open to being won back.

    I think there's a lot of potential. Labour haven't managed to pin the blame for the crisis onto the Tories, so it's not yet too late to turn things around.

    A lot of CON GE2019 VOTERS were not Tories but were simply opposed to Corbyn
    .
    A lot were more fans of Boris Johnson than the Conservative Party. As we've seen, Johnson retains considerable support within the Conservative Party and I suspect beyond.

    If he were not so lazy, I'd love to see Johnson start his own party or join forces with Reform UK and put up candidates against Truss's Conservative candidates - I'd order in the popcorn.
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 886
    Off topic, but so funny I have to share it. Near the beginning of a long Washington Post article on the pre-war failures of the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) in Ukraine is this single-sentence paragraph:

    "The FSB did not respond to requests for comment."

    source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/interactive/2022/russia-fsb-intelligence-ukraine-war/?itid=hp-top-table-main

    I like the fact that the Post asked the FSB for comment.

    On a more serious point: Apparently, almost all their operatives in Ukraine were telling Putin what he wanted to hear, and many were taking his money, but doing little or nothing.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 30,105

    Off topic, but so funny I have to share it. Near the beginning of a long Washington Post article on the pre-war failures of the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) in Ukraine is this single-sentence paragraph:

    "The FSB did not respond to requests for comment."

    source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/interactive/2022/russia-fsb-intelligence-ukraine-war/?itid=hp-top-table-main

    I like the fact that the Post asked the FSB for comment.

    On a more serious point: Apparently, almost all their operatives in Ukraine were telling Putin what he wanted to hear, and many were taking his money, but doing little or nothing.

    IIRC asking the parties named in an article for comment is one of the actions that bullet proofs you about being sued for saying stuff in US.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 10,494

    A lot of Tory GE2019 voters are currently don't know. This means they are open to being won back.

    I think there's a lot of potential. Labour haven't managed to pin the blame for the crisis onto the Tories, so it's not yet too late to turn things around.

    A lot of CON GE2019 VOTERS were not Tories but were simply opposed to Corbyn
    .
    Starmer might be harder to demonise than Corbyn, but I'm sure the Tories will give it a good go.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 19,836

    All quiet at Zaporizhzhia thankfully. Long may it continue

    Yes. Hard to know what's happening, but there was plenty of implausible spin yesterday from both sides yesterday. My guess is that the Russians are using the plant as a firing position, hoping the Ukrainians won't fire at it, and the Ukrainians are firing at it anyway, hoping the Russians get the blame if anything goes wrong. I really doubt if the Russians are firing at themselves, though placing artillery there is almost as bad.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,243
    HYUFD said:

    “Wales and Scotland aren’t nations, the UK should become a “unitary state” with devolution “evolved back”, and independence should be made “impossible”, an influential Tory peer has said.”

    https://nation.cymru/news/wales-and-scotland-not-nations-and-independence-should-be-made-impossible-says-lord-frost/

    Ho ho. As the end game approaches, the raw nerves are exposed.

    More please! I like a good spanking.

    Just keep refusing indyref2 for a generation is all Starmer and Truss need to do
    Jackpot!

    More please! I like a good spanking.

  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 24,345

    Off topic, but so funny I have to share it. Near the beginning of a long Washington Post article on the pre-war failures of the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) in Ukraine is this single-sentence paragraph:

    "The FSB did not respond to requests for comment."

    source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/interactive/2022/russia-fsb-intelligence-ukraine-war/?itid=hp-top-table-main

    I like the fact that the Post asked the FSB for comment.

    On a more serious point: Apparently, almost all their operatives in Ukraine were telling Putin what he wanted to hear, and many were taking his money, but doing little or nothing.

    IIRC asking the parties named in an article for comment is one of the actions that bullet proofs you about being sued for saying stuff in US.
    Are the FSB notoriously litigious?
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,243

    A lot of Tory GE2019 voters are currently don't know. This means they are open to being won back.

    I think there's a lot of potential. Labour haven't managed to pin the blame for the crisis onto the Tories, so it's not yet too late to turn things around.

    A lot of CON GE2019 VOTERS were not Tories but were simply opposed to Corbyn
    .
    Starmer might be harder to demonise than Corbyn, but I'm sure the Tories will give it a good go.
    After spending several years demonising themselves, it’ll be a refreshing change.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 104,989
    stodge said:

    A lot of Tory GE2019 voters are currently don't know. This means they are open to being won back.

    I think there's a lot of potential. Labour haven't managed to pin the blame for the crisis onto the Tories, so it's not yet too late to turn things around.

    A lot of CON GE2019 VOTERS were not Tories but were simply opposed to Corbyn
    .
    A lot were more fans of Boris Johnson than the Conservative Party. As we've seen, Johnson retains considerable support within the Conservative Party and I suspect beyond.

    If he were not so lazy, I'd love to see Johnson start his own party or join forces with Reform UK and put up candidates against Truss's Conservative candidates - I'd order in the popcorn.
    I expect some Conservative 2019 voters who were Boris fans will vote RefUK or stay home at the next general election, though more would do so if Sunak was PM than Truss PM. Truss will however lose more 2019 Tory Remain voters who held their nose to vote for Boris to keep out Corbyn to Labour and the LDs than Sunak would
  • mickydroymickydroy Posts: 121
    No one has become prime minister without the backing of the Murdoch press since 70s, so yes all to play for, the Murdoch press amongst others are bound to treat Truss, as the second coming of Christ.I certainly wouldnt be backing Labour at this stage
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,317
    She'll need a lot more than just two flags behind her if she is going to win.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,317
    HYUFD said:

    No PM since universal suffrage has won a 5th consecutive general election for their party. Only 1, Major in 1992, won after more than 10 years of his party in power.

    So the odds favour Starmer not Truss, even if Truss gets a bounce as new PM and RedfieldWilton has her narrowly ahead of Starmer as preferred PM

    Competing precedents I should think. As you note winning 5 GEs in a row would be unusual, but on the other hand winning from as far behind as Labour are in seats is not easy either. It's been done, but the Tories having their largest vote share and majority 12 years and the 4th election from becoming largest party again is already unusual too.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 16,569

    Bus privatisation has been a slam dunk disaster.

    Water privatisation has likely been a disaster.

    Train privatisation can be argued either way I think.

    Oh and by the way, having been away at the end of the previous thread can I just say that I think it is sad that you think it is extremist for someone to believe that our elected Parliament should be able to make its own laws. You may be happy that the EU was able to make laws over this land without Parliament being able to prevent them but I don't think it is extremist to hold an alternative view to that.

    Perhaps it is your democratic compass that is skewed rather than mine.
    What is sad is that you seek to rewrite and redefine terms to suit your own purist view of the world.

    You are actually quite dishonest on this subject, presumably because the alternative breaks your interior worldview.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 104,989
    mickydroy said:

    No one has become prime minister without the backing of the Murdoch press since 70s, so yes all to play for, the Murdoch press amongst others are bound to treat Truss, as the second coming of Christ.I certainly wouldnt be backing Labour at this stage

    The Times backs Sunak not Truss
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,317

    A lot of Tory GE2019 voters are currently don't know. This means they are open to being won back.

    I think there's a lot of potential. Labour haven't managed to pin the blame for the crisis onto the Tories, so it's not yet too late to turn things around.

    A lot of CON GE2019 VOTERS were not Tories but were simply opposed to Corbyn
    .
    Starmer might be harder to demonise than Corbyn, but I'm sure the Tories will give it a good go.
    The tactic to demonise is always the same, naturally, but its effectiveness will be blunted by time and Starmer's general inoffensiveness. That's why they need the economy to pick up, fast, so people do not feel awful.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 17,307

    Betfair next prime minister
    1.05 Liz Truss 95%
    19 Rishi Sunak 5%

    Next Conservative leader
    1.05 Liz Truss 95%
    19 Rishi Sunak 5%

    At the start of tonight's Manchester hustings (on GB News)
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QuN1rPHX1Fg

    Betfair next prime minister
    1.05 Liz Truss 95%
    18.5 Rishi Sunak 5%

    Next Conservative leader
    1.05 Liz Truss 95%
    19.5 Rishi Sunak 5%
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,648
    edited August 19

    All quiet at Zaporizhzhia thankfully. Long may it continue

    Yes. Hard to know what's happening, but there was plenty of implausible spin yesterday from both sides yesterday. My guess is that the Russians are using the plant as a firing position, hoping the Ukrainians won't fire at it, and the Ukrainians are firing at it anyway, hoping the Russians get the blame if anything goes wrong. I really doubt if the Russians are firing at themselves, though placing artillery there is almost as bad.
    Ultimately i think its down to Russia trying to unhook ZNPP from Ukraines grid to its own.
    In Die Hard terms all this for a common thief
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,317

    Off topic, but so funny I have to share it. Near the beginning of a long Washington Post article on the pre-war failures of the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) in Ukraine is this single-sentence paragraph:

    "The FSB did not respond to requests for comment."

    source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/interactive/2022/russia-fsb-intelligence-ukraine-war/?itid=hp-top-table-main

    I like the fact that the Post asked the FSB for comment.

    On a more serious point: Apparently, almost all their operatives in Ukraine were telling Putin what he wanted to hear, and many were taking his money, but doing little or nothing.

    There is a tendency to assume opponents, especially nefarious one, are also competent and knowledgeable, that even if they don't acknowledge it publicly they know what is really going on. I guess it makes our successes over them all the better. But really there's a good chance everyone is clueless a lot of the time.

    I was always struck my reports that Beijing believed their own propaganda about Hong Kong and was stunned and worried by the parish elections that went against their backed candidates. Sadly they did then respond with ruthlessness to correct that.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 42,605

    A lot of Tory GE2019 voters are currently don't know. This means they are open to being won back.

    I think there's a lot of potential. Labour haven't managed to pin the blame for the crisis onto the Tories, so it's not yet too late to turn things around.

    A lot of CON GE2019 VOTERS were not Tories but were simply opposed to Corbyn
    .
    Starmer might be harder to demonise than Corbyn, but I'm sure the Tories will give it a good go.
    New Labour (Leader), New Danger
  • mickydroymickydroy Posts: 121
    HYUFD said:

    mickydroy said:

    No one has become prime minister without the backing of the Murdoch press since 70s, so yes all to play for, the Murdoch press amongst others are bound to treat Truss, as the second coming of Christ.I certainly wouldnt be backing Labour at this stage

    The Times backs Sunak not Truss
    At the next election they will back Truss over Starmer, guaranteed
  • RattersRatters Posts: 466
    HYUFD said:

    No PM since universal suffrage has won a 5th consecutive general election for their party. Only 1, Major in 1992, won after more than 10 years of his party in power.

    So the odds favour Starmer not Truss, even if Truss gets a bounce as new PM and RedfieldWilton has her narrowly ahead of Starmer as preferred PM

    On the other hand, the Tory party of today is unrecognisable from the one that took power in 2010 promising fiscal discipline. The size of the changes within the governing party is unlike what we've seen in the past.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 17,307
    Rishi Sunak's underdog video is, erm, something.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 17,307

    Rishi Sunak's underdog video is, erm, something.

    And then Rishi is onto his standard spiel which the audience could join in on, like Hamlet's soliloquy.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 5,036

    Bus privatisation has been a slam dunk disaster.

    Water privatisation has likely been a disaster.

    Train privatisation can be argued either way I think.

    It us interesting that both the Post Office and the trains were privatisations that Mrs Thatcher considered to be beyond the pale. I personally think that Rail privatisation has been a success but could have been so much better had it not been botched by Major. On the Post Office I think it is a stupid idea (privatisation I mean). There are certain services that work better if run by a Government.
    I don't think mail is one of those. I don't care if DHL or Government DHL brings my parcel.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,243
    mickydroy said:

    No one has become prime minister without the backing of the Murdoch press since 70s, so yes all to play for, the Murdoch press amongst others are bound to treat Truss, as the second coming of Christ.I certainly wouldnt be backing Labour at this stage

    Indeed. You’d have to be bonkers backing Lab Maj at the ridiculous price of 7/2 when they are in the teens in Scotland.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,648
    edited August 19
    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    A lot of Tory GE2019 voters are currently don't know. This means they are open to being won back.

    I think there's a lot of potential. Labour haven't managed to pin the blame for the crisis onto the Tories, so it's not yet too late to turn things around.

    A lot of CON GE2019 VOTERS were not Tories but were simply opposed to Corbyn
    .
    A lot were more fans of Boris Johnson than the Conservative Party. As we've seen, Johnson retains considerable support within the Conservative Party and I suspect beyond.

    If he were not so lazy, I'd love to see Johnson start his own party or join forces with Reform UK and put up candidates against Truss's Conservative candidates - I'd order in the popcorn.
    I expect some Conservative 2019 voters who were Boris fans will vote RefUK or stay home at the next general election, though more would do so if Sunak was PM than Truss PM. Truss will however lose more 2019 Tory Remain voters who held their nose to vote for Boris to keep out Corbyn to Labour and the LDs than Sunak would
    Reform will be a very limited threat to anyone. Their performance in London and Sennedd election etc was pitiful, they've got fewer than 10 councillors, even Reckless has deserted them. I'd be surprised if they stand more than a couple dozen paper candidates, theyve no ground game at all and none of the Farage bandwagon.
    I agree their problem will be the LDs in the South mainly, i think they'll do substantially better against Labour in the N and Midlands comparitively (albeit still probably losing ground)
  • EPGEPG Posts: 5,036
    I see Lord Frost is asserting that the 1801 unitary union settlement is inviolable. So, er, that's the Republic of Ireland told.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,317
    edited August 19

    All quiet at Zaporizhzhia thankfully. Long may it continue

    Yes. Hard to know what's happening, but there was plenty of implausible spin yesterday from both sides yesterday. My guess is that the Russians are using the plant as a firing position, hoping the Ukrainians won't fire at it, and the Ukrainians are firing at it anyway, hoping the Russians get the blame if anything goes wrong. I really doubt if the Russians are firing at themselves, though placing artillery there is almost as bad.
    I have no idea what is going on either, but you seem to have difficulty believing the Russians in particular would do something irrational and counterproductive, when occupying a powerplant in the first place would seem both.

    When making an estimate about liklihood of irrational actions, I think people have just cause to be more suspicious and not give benefit of the doubt.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,317
    EPG said:

    I see Lord Frost is asserting that the 1801 unitary union settlement is inviolable. So, er, that's the Republic of Ireland told.

    Really do not understand his high profile. He achieved a 'breakthrough' as a negotiator, which helped win the 2019 GE because no deal was off the table, but what else has he done? A Lord with other political achievements should not really get so much attention.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,317
    Ratters said:

    HYUFD said:

    No PM since universal suffrage has won a 5th consecutive general election for their party. Only 1, Major in 1992, won after more than 10 years of his party in power.

    So the odds favour Starmer not Truss, even if Truss gets a bounce as new PM and RedfieldWilton has her narrowly ahead of Starmer as preferred PM

    On the other hand, the Tory party of today is unrecognisable from the one that took power in 2010 promising fiscal discipline. The size of the changes within the governing party is unlike what we've seen in the past.
    That was back when they were led by a girly swot, as our current PM would say.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,648
    kle4 said:

    EPG said:

    I see Lord Frost is asserting that the 1801 unitary union settlement is inviolable. So, er, that's the Republic of Ireland told.

    Really do not understand his high profile. He achieved a 'breakthrough' as a negotiator, which helped win the 2019 GE because no deal was off the table, but what else has he done? A Lord with other political achievements should not really get so much attention.
    Its David Miliband levels of unwarranted king over waterness
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,243
    kle4 said:

    She'll need a lot more than just two flags behind her if she is going to win.

    Flag-shagging orgy incoming.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,317
    edited August 19

    kle4 said:

    She'll need a lot more than just two flags behind her if she is going to win.

    Flag-shagging orgy incoming.
    I can't tell if that is a prediction or if you are offering an invitation to gauge interest.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,648

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    A lot of Tory GE2019 voters are currently don't know. This means they are open to being won back.

    I think there's a lot of potential. Labour haven't managed to pin the blame for the crisis onto the Tories, so it's not yet too late to turn things around.

    A lot of CON GE2019 VOTERS were not Tories but were simply opposed to Corbyn
    .
    A lot were more fans of Boris Johnson than the Conservative Party. As we've seen, Johnson retains considerable support within the Conservative Party and I suspect beyond.

    If he were not so lazy, I'd love to see Johnson start his own party or join forces with Reform UK and put up candidates against Truss's Conservative candidates - I'd order in the popcorn.
    I expect some Conservative 2019 voters who were Boris fans will vote RefUK or stay home at the next general election, though more would do so if Sunak was PM than Truss PM. Truss will however lose more 2019 Tory Remain voters who held their nose to vote for Boris to keep out Corbyn to Labour and the LDs than Sunak would
    Reform will be a very limited threat to anyone. Their performance in London and Sennedd election etc was pitiful, they've got fewer than 10 councillors, even Reckless has deserted them. I'd be surprised if they stand more than a couple dozen paper candidates, theyve no ground game at all and none of the Farage bandwagon.
    I agree their problem will be the LDs in the South mainly, i think they'll do substantially better against Labour in the N and Midlands comparitively (albeit still probably losing ground)
    And to add to this there are some red wall seats with mahoosive bxp votes to chow down on that may buck a national trend.
    If the Tories pulled back to say evens at a GE a notional Con GAIN Hartlepool (from 2019) very possible along with a couple other red wall odd seats with odd possible results because of a 'teen' number of bxp votes to go at that are, in large part, long term trend away from labour votes
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 7,120

    All quiet at Zaporizhzhia thankfully. Long may it continue

    Yes. Hard to know what's happening, but there was plenty of implausible spin yesterday from both sides yesterday. My guess is that the Russians are using the plant as a firing position, hoping the Ukrainians won't fire at it, and the Ukrainians are firing at it anyway, hoping the Russians get the blame if anything goes wrong. I really doubt if the Russians are firing at themselves, though placing artillery there is almost as bad.
    I find it almost implausible that the Ukrainians would take serious risks of a nuclear meltdown. What good is it blaming Russia if much of their country is ruined? I did listen to an 'expert' who said that these things are pretty well fortified nowadays. The main risk would be an explosion from the inside. It would appear that the claim of mining by a Russian General might thankfully have been a hoax.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,243
    This England, Sky's Boris Johnson series, looks like a grim Bo' Selecta revival
    Kenneth Branagh in a Bo Jo mask: jump scare!

    Anyway. In case you're looking forward to it for any reason or, more likely, you're morbidly intrigued — similar to watching a wild hog being fed into a comically oversized blender — here's everything we know about the upcoming [checks notes] Boris Johnson series.

    https://www.gq-magazine.co.uk/culture/article/this-england-sky-boris-johnson-series
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 104,989
    EPG said:

    Bus privatisation has been a slam dunk disaster.

    Water privatisation has likely been a disaster.

    Train privatisation can be argued either way I think.

    It us interesting that both the Post Office and the trains were privatisations that Mrs Thatcher considered to be beyond the pale. I personally think that Rail privatisation has been a success but could have been so much better had it not been botched by Major. On the Post Office I think it is a stupid idea (privatisation I mean). There are certain services that work better if run by a Government.
    I don't think mail is one of those. I don't care if DHL or Government DHL brings my parcel.
    You need Royal Mail to provide the universal service though and provide parcels and letters delivered at the same cost whether to an urban, suburban or rural area. No other delivery company does that. Personally I would keep Royal Mail privatised but have government subsidise the universal service to rural areas which is lossmaking.

    The Post Office is a stand alone body
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 5,778

    All quiet at Zaporizhzhia thankfully. Long may it continue

    Yes. Hard to know what's happening, but there was plenty of implausible spin yesterday from both sides yesterday. My guess is that the Russians are using the plant as a firing position, hoping the Ukrainians won't fire at it, and the Ukrainians are firing at it anyway, hoping the Russians get the blame if anything goes wrong. I really doubt if the Russians are firing at themselves, though placing artillery there is almost as bad.
    What evidence do you have that the Ukrainians are firing at it, and why do you think the Russians aren't, especially when they have been telegraphing a false flag operation for weeks?

    What is needed is some sort of ultraviolent Special Forces insertion, probably by helicopter, who can then take it by primarily small-arms fire, but I doubt the Ukrainians are up to it and it would take something like an SAS/Green Beret force to achieve.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 17,307

    This England, Sky's Boris Johnson series, looks like a grim Bo' Selecta revival
    Kenneth Branagh in a Bo Jo mask: jump scare!

    Anyway. In case you're looking forward to it for any reason or, more likely, you're morbidly intrigued — similar to watching a wild hog being fed into a comically oversized blender — here's everything we know about the upcoming [checks notes] Boris Johnson series.

    https://www.gq-magazine.co.uk/culture/article/this-england-sky-boris-johnson-series

    The trailer is at the bottom of Stuart's GQ article.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 104,989
    edited August 19
    Ratters said:

    HYUFD said:

    No PM since universal suffrage has won a 5th consecutive general election for their party. Only 1, Major in 1992, won after more than 10 years of his party in power.

    So the odds favour Starmer not Truss, even if Truss gets a bounce as new PM and RedfieldWilton has her narrowly ahead of Starmer as preferred PM

    On the other hand, the Tory party of today is unrecognisable from the one that took power in 2010 promising fiscal discipline. The size of the changes within the governing party is unlike what we've seen in the past.
    However to win a general election after 10 years in power you normally need to be ideologically somewhat different to your predecessor as Major was to Thatcher or indeed as Boris was to May when he won a majority for the Tories after 3 consecutive
    general elections of Tories most seats. That way it still seems like a change of government.

    Truss however is now ideologically little different from Boris, just a shade more Thatcherite economically
  • DynamoDynamo Posts: 651
    edited August 19

    MISTY said:

    Foxy said:

    I am frankly surprised at the “rejoin” numbers.
    I long believed it impossible the UK would rejoin, but I now semi-expect it.

    Will take a while, though, and will be a different EU (and UK).

    It will likely not be on the table for English voters next GE (not sure of the Greens position) but will be for the other 3 nations of the UK.
    I really would love to know Rejoin's slogans.

    'Your apartment in Nice will be much easier to get to...'

    'My children can access that work placement I got with my contacts...'

    'We too can have wars with our farmers....'

    'The far right will prosper, as it has done in France and Italy...'

    ...Should go down well in Stoke...
    In my country it'll be 'These people threatened you with the removal of EU membership in one referendum, completely ignored how you voted in another and think they should get to choose when another referendum takes place. Do you really want to be dictated to by these pricks?'
    Or words to that effect.
    If I keep poking myself in the eye with a stick and my neighbour tells me I'll do myself an injury, that's a "threat", is it? Of course it isn't.

    The President of the European Commission in 2014 said an iScotland "would find it extremely difficult" to join the EU.

    You don't even see Better Together as a Scottish campaign, do you?

    I get it that you really mean the last two words in your penultimate sentence. That must be for some unstated reason, because there's no sense or logic in what precedes it, as any neutral person could tell you.

    You're the one who's ignoring how people voted. Scotland has voted for the Union more than a dozen times this century and near the end of the last century it voted for constitutional issues to be reserved.7

    "Ignored how you voted," my a***hole. London didn't get to stay in the EU either.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 17,307
    After the green emerald in Belfast, Liz Truss has returned to *that* necklace.

    She is pro-NPRail and M62, and anti-Andy Burnham.

    Truss notes we've had decades of low growth. Not that she makes blue on blue attacks.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 27,599
    EPG said:

    Bus privatisation has been a slam dunk disaster.

    Water privatisation has likely been a disaster.

    Train privatisation can be argued either way I think.

    It us interesting that both the Post Office and the trains were privatisations that Mrs Thatcher considered to be beyond the pale. I personally think that Rail privatisation has been a success but could have been so much better had it not been botched by Major. On the Post Office I think it is a stupid idea (privatisation I mean). There are certain services that work better if run by a Government.
    I don't think mail is one of those. I don't care if DHL or Government DHL brings my parcel.
    It is if you want a universal postal service. Otherwise you end up with many parts of the country getting a substandard service.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 7,120
    kle4 said:

    All quiet at Zaporizhzhia thankfully. Long may it continue

    Yes. Hard to know what's happening, but there was plenty of implausible spin yesterday from both sides yesterday. My guess is that the Russians are using the plant as a firing position, hoping the Ukrainians won't fire at it, and the Ukrainians are firing at it anyway, hoping the Russians get the blame if anything goes wrong. I really doubt if the Russians are firing at themselves, though placing artillery there is almost as bad.
    I have no idea what is going on either, but you seem to have difficulty believing the Russians in particular would do something irrational and counterproductive, when occupying a powerplant in the first place would seem both.

    When making an estimate about liklihood of irrational actions, I think people have just cause to be more suspicious and not give benefit of the doubt.
    Yes, I also think Nick was a little optimistic yesterday in asserting it wasn't in either side's interest for a nuclear catastrophe to occur. Perhaps but for Ukraine it would be a calamity. For Russia not so much. It's just possible that Putin might consider it a price worth paying not least since the parts of Russia that would be at risk are not where the people in Russia who actually matter live (Moscow and St Petersberg). Hopefully Macron stressed to Putin that he dare not allow anything stupid to happen there.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 27,599

    Bus privatisation has been a slam dunk disaster.

    Water privatisation has likely been a disaster.

    Train privatisation can be argued either way I think.

    Oh and by the way, having been away at the end of the previous thread can I just say that I think it is sad that you think it is extremist for someone to believe that our elected Parliament should be able to make its own laws. You may be happy that the EU was able to make laws over this land without Parliament being able to prevent them but I don't think it is extremist to hold an alternative view to that.

    Perhaps it is your democratic compass that is skewed rather than mine.
    What is sad is that you seek to rewrite and redefine terms to suit your own purist view of the world.

    You are actually quite dishonest on this subject, presumably because the alternative breaks your interior worldview.
    I am in no way dishonest. What I have stated is the facts. It is you who seek to change the accepted definition of words when they don't suit your world view.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 5,778

    EPG said:

    Bus privatisation has been a slam dunk disaster.

    Water privatisation has likely been a disaster.

    Train privatisation can be argued either way I think.

    It us interesting that both the Post Office and the trains were privatisations that Mrs Thatcher considered to be beyond the pale. I personally think that Rail privatisation has been a success but could have been so much better had it not been botched by Major. On the Post Office I think it is a stupid idea (privatisation I mean). There are certain services that work better if run by a Government.
    I don't think mail is one of those. I don't care if DHL or Government DHL brings my parcel.
    It is if you want a universal postal service. Otherwise you end up with many parts of the country getting a substandard service.
    Who needs post any more? Other than parcels. Letter post has ceased to be a necessity.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 104,989

    EPG said:

    Bus privatisation has been a slam dunk disaster.

    Water privatisation has likely been a disaster.

    Train privatisation can be argued either way I think.

    It us interesting that both the Post Office and the trains were privatisations that Mrs Thatcher considered to be beyond the pale. I personally think that Rail privatisation has been a success but could have been so much better had it not been botched by Major. On the Post Office I think it is a stupid idea (privatisation I mean). There are certain services that work better if run by a Government.
    I don't think mail is one of those. I don't care if DHL or Government DHL brings my parcel.
    It is if you want a universal postal service. Otherwise you end up with many parts of the country getting a substandard service.
    Indeed, without a universal service if you live in a village or the Highlands of Scotland you would only get post and parcels at exorbitant cost
This discussion has been closed.