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Can Truss lead the Tories to a general election victory? – politicalbetting.com

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Comments

  • HYUFD said:
    Not sure she can do that in Wales or Scotland
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,716

    HYUFD said:

    Big John please explain

    Labour hold their biggest poll lead over the Conservatives for almost ten years amid mass dissatisfaction with the government’s handling of the cost of living.

    A YouGov poll for The Times showed Labour with the backing of 43 per cent of voters, 15 points ahead of the Conservatives on 28 per cent. It is the biggest Labour lead recorded by the pollster since February 2013.

    Labour’s score of 43 per cent is four points up on last week and the party’s highest vote share in a YouGov poll since March 2018. At the 2019 general election the party won 32.1 per cent of the vote under Jeremy Corbyn, Sir Keir Starmer’s predecessor.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/labour-takes-biggest-poll-lead-in-tenyears-as-cost-of-living-crisis-bites-fdfrkwnms

    In some ways good for Truss as it means she is bound to get a bounce as new PM next month
    image
    :)
    What good news is there going to be for Truss to get a bounce 😂 her tax cut for the rich?
  • EPGEPG Posts: 5,272
    darkage said:

    ydoethur said:

    Finnish PM takes a dope test.

    Boris Johnson needn't bother, as it's obvious he is one.

    I'm pretty sure that these videos of the Finnish PM were an attention seeking stunt. They are in line with the image that she is cultivating of herself. The other parties are stupid to have forced her to take a drug test. They should have just ignored it. If they wanted to make a clever comment, it should be that she should be more careful about being filmed by people she doesn't know at private parties.
    What should she have been careful about? The dangers of dancing?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 17,643
    I see the last thinking Tory has finally bowed out.

    Only fanatics, sex pests, and the brain damaged remain.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,357

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    EPG said:

    Bus privatisation has been a slam dunk disaster.

    Water privatisation has likely been a disaster.

    Train privatisation can be argued either way I think.

    It us interesting that both the Post Office and the trains were privatisations that Mrs Thatcher considered to be beyond the pale. I personally think that Rail privatisation has been a success but could have been so much better had it not been botched by Major. On the Post Office I think it is a stupid idea (privatisation I mean). There are certain services that work better if run by a Government.
    I don't think mail is one of those. I don't care if DHL or Government DHL brings my parcel.
    It is if you want a universal postal service. Otherwise you end up with many parts of the country getting a substandard service.
    Who needs post any more? Other than parcels. Letter post has ceased to be a necessity.
    You need parcels in rural areas and there it is still mainly Royal Mail not Amazon or DHL who deliver them
    not here, which is pretty bloody rural. DHL evri DPD Amazon all in it.
    Where is that? Plus Amazon and DHL will charge more than Royal Mail for delivering to rural areas
    West Devon. No they won't Amazon Prime is flat rate everywhere, parcelforce is extra for IV and islands and IoW.
    Do you live in a village or town? If the latter you are not rural.

    Amazon Prime itself costs extra
    Amazon Prime includes access to its Amazon original videos and premiership football together with free delivery for £95 pa
    Which is not cheap, especially for those on low incomes and 100 times the price of a first class stamp let alone a second
    What on earth has a first class stamp got to do with parcel deliveries

    You really are out of touch
    Quite a lot, you can send small and medium sized parcels with just first class stamps
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 55,355
    edited August 2022
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    EPG said:

    Bus privatisation has been a slam dunk disaster.

    Water privatisation has likely been a disaster.

    Train privatisation can be argued either way I think.

    It us interesting that both the Post Office and the trains were privatisations that Mrs Thatcher considered to be beyond the pale. I personally think that Rail privatisation has been a success but could have been so much better had it not been botched by Major. On the Post Office I think it is a stupid idea (privatisation I mean). There are certain services that work better if run by a Government.
    I don't think mail is one of those. I don't care if DHL or Government DHL brings my parcel.
    It is if you want a universal postal service. Otherwise you end up with many parts of the country getting a substandard service.
    Who needs post any more? Other than parcels. Letter post has ceased to be a necessity.
    You need parcels in rural areas and there it is still mainly Royal Mail not Amazon or DHL who deliver them
    not here, which is pretty bloody rural. DHL evri DPD Amazon all in it.
    Where is that? Plus Amazon and DHL will charge more than Royal Mail for delivering to rural areas
    West Devon. No they won't Amazon Prime is flat rate everywhere, parcelforce is extra for IV and islands and IoW.
    Do you live in a village or town? If the latter you are not rural.

    Amazon Prime itself costs extra
    Amazon Prime includes access to its Amazon original videos and premiership football together with free delivery for £95 pa
    Which is not cheap, especially for those on low incomes and 100 times the price of a first class stamp let alone a second
    What on earth has a first class stamp got to do with parcel deliveries

    You really are out of touch
    Quite a lot, you can send small and medium sized parcels with just first class stamps
    Rubbish and you made first class stamp plural which you did not originally
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,756
    darkage said:

    ydoethur said:

    Finnish PM takes a dope test.

    Boris Johnson needn't bother, as it's obvious he is one.

    I'm pretty sure that these videos of the Finnish PM were an attention seeking stunt. They are in line with the image that she is cultivating of herself. The other parties are stupid to have forced her to take a drug test. They should have just ignored it. If they wanted to make a clever comment, it should be that she should be more careful about being filmed by people she doesn't know at private parties.
    I always think of Johnson as an attention seeking stunt.

    Well, something that sounds like it anyway.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,756

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    EPG said:

    Bus privatisation has been a slam dunk disaster.

    Water privatisation has likely been a disaster.

    Train privatisation can be argued either way I think.

    It us interesting that both the Post Office and the trains were privatisations that Mrs Thatcher considered to be beyond the pale. I personally think that Rail privatisation has been a success but could have been so much better had it not been botched by Major. On the Post Office I think it is a stupid idea (privatisation I mean). There are certain services that work better if run by a Government.
    I don't think mail is one of those. I don't care if DHL or Government DHL brings my parcel.
    It is if you want a universal postal service. Otherwise you end up with many parts of the country getting a substandard service.
    Who needs post any more? Other than parcels. Letter post has ceased to be a necessity.
    You need parcels in rural areas and there it is still mainly Royal Mail not Amazon or DHL who deliver them
    not here, which is pretty bloody rural. DHL evri DPD Amazon all in it.
    Where is that? Plus Amazon and DHL will charge more than Royal Mail for delivering to rural areas
    West Devon. No they won't Amazon Prime is flat rate everywhere, parcelforce is extra for IV and islands and IoW.
    Do you live in a village or town? If the latter you are not rural.

    Amazon Prime itself costs extra
    Amazon Prime includes access to its Amazon original videos and premiership football together with free delivery for £95 pa
    Which is not cheap, especially for those on low incomes and 100 times the price of a first class stamp let alone a second
    What on earth has a first class stamp got to do with parcel deliveries

    You really are out of touch
    Quite a lot, you can send small and medium sized parcels with just first class stamps
    Rubbish
    Well, yes, 97% of what they deliver is rubbish.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 11,244
    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:


    I also see the latest Swedish poll has the Social Democrat vote approaching one third and the vote share very close to the combined total for the Moderates and Sweden Democrats both of whom are slipping back so at the moment it looks like a solid re-election for the centre-left bloc but there's a long way to go.

    While in the Italian election Brothers of Italy lead in 2/3 of the latest polls and the right of centre coalition heads for a majority next month

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2022_Italian_general_election
    All this tells us, I think, is there is no strong trend out there. The centre-right opposition is polling very well in Norway but the centre-right Government is in big trouble in Austria.

    In Germany, the SPD are in a poor third but it's the Greens who are making headway and are tied with the Union thus keeping the current coalition in good shape but raising the likelihood of a Green Chancellor after the next Bundestag election.

    The centre-right opposition PP are doing well In Spain but the ruling Socialists are in command in Portugal while the centre-right New Democracy is comfortably ahead in Greece.

    The Australians gave the centre-right Liberal-National Coalition a right beating in May but in New Zealand the centre-right National Party (and its ACT allies) are leading Labour.

    Make of that what you will.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 82,567
    ydoethur said:

    Michael Gove has endorsed Rishi Sunak for the Conservative leadership and announced that he is bringing his career in frontline politics to a close.

    Writing in The Times, he says that Liz Truss’s campaign has been a “holiday from reality” and that her tax cuts will put “the stock options of FTSE 100 executives” before the poorest.

    He says that as prime minister Sunak will “put the strength of the state at the service of the weakest” and provide millions of people with the support they need during the cost of living crisis.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/michael-gove-liz-truss-rishi-sunak-pz67ggl9z

    So Sunak was clearly the worst candidate and at least something good has come out of this.
    But at least Gove proving he's not just going with the flaw at least.
  • NEW THREAD

  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 20,506
    edited August 2022

    Michael Gove has endorsed Rishi Sunak for the Conservative leadership and announced that he is bringing his career in frontline politics to a close.

    Writing in The Times, he says that Liz Truss’s campaign has been a “holiday from reality” and that her tax cuts will put “the stock options of FTSE 100 executives” before the poorest.

    He says that as prime minister Sunak will “put the strength of the state at the service of the weakest” and provide millions of people with the support they need during the cost of living crisis.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/michael-gove-liz-truss-rishi-sunak-pz67ggl9z

    Lends credence to the Kemi conspiracy.
    But is equally consistent with the view that Kemi supporters were right wingers who did not rate Liz Truss.
    I read it thus. The Gove/Rishi/Murdoch/Cummings (?) nexus wanted Rishi. Gove put Kemi in play (which imo she was right to accept to raise her profile) to damage Penny and ensure the weaker opponent, Truss, was in the final two. So far so good, but the trouble with all these schemes to force the electors' hands by offering them an unthinkable alternative and forcing them to vote therefore for a merely unpalatable one, is that they don't work. The unthinkable alternative becomes thinkable. Candidates and ideas grow in stature. The membership have embraced La Truss, and this open Gove endorsement is a last ditch forlorn attempt to move the dial, like Napoleon sending in his Old Guard at Waterloo.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 37,054
    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Locally driven planning with greater freedom. Corruption corruption corruption.

    It's more that that's completely counter to what government has wanted from the planning system for as long as I can certainly remember. Government has imposed rules to ensure building occurs, as they know if you leave it local in this country even very good proposals, or very needed ones, will not get through. Prior zonal proposals were hated (albeit to a large degree that was around the formula for housing), but at least an attempt to simplify things.

    I really don't understand how giving more ways to say no from locals is going to help the problems we have in the system. Developers are taking advantage of it, definitely, but neighbourhood plans require immense local effort and need updating so often (or have to be bypassed if housing land supply is not met), that it is not worth the effort, so how are very local plans going to be created? How will housing get approved, and built in good time?
    Our neighbourhood plan is well thought out
    It matters not. Building will take precedence over a Neighbourhood Plan.
    Not if the neighbourhood plan filters into the Local Plan
    The local plan again doesn't have any sway over the push to build
  • HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    Mid evening all :)

    Nice to have a fresher evening after the humidity of previous days.

    Despite much hysteria and hyperbole, the second tube strike has been a bit of a non event. Yes, the tourists have been affected but many seem to have simply confirmed the new trend of Friday as main WFH day - apparently just 13% go into the office on a Friday - I'm one of them on occasion.

    At East Ham, we had a very limited service running one way to West Ham and the other to Dag East but that has now stopped. It may well be local town centres won't be too badly affected and with trains running anyone who can get to a rail station can still come in to central London.

    The political "blame game" has Shapps preaching his right-wing hellfire nonsense on one side and Mick Lynch of the RMT (who has obviously learnt from the Bob Crow playbook) on the other and poor old powerless Sadiq Khan caught between the Government rock and the Union hard place. The truth of the futility of the job of Mayor of London has been laid bare - I just wonder if Khan might prefer the Westminster benches after all in 2024.

    The problem is the incendiary language of Shapps (who may well be angling for a higher rank job from Liz Truss) gets us nowhere slowly (rather like the strikes). As an occasional passenger, the notion of a 10% fare hike in January doesn't sit well but the post-pandemic operational model for passenger transport still hasn't really evolved and needs more thinking and certainly a lot less posturing from all sides.

    The cricket was a salutary reminder however good you think you are you can still have an off day (or three off days). Better to stick to the action from God's Own Country (as I'm told).

    I also see the latest Swedish poll has the Social Democrat vote approaching one third and the vote share very close to the combined total for the Moderates and Sweden Democrats both of whom are slipping back so at the moment it looks like a solid re-election for the centre-left bloc but there's a long way to go.

    While in the Italian election Brothers of Italy lead in 2/3 of the latest polls and the right of centre coalition heads for a majority next month

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2022_Italian_general_election
    Five Star are really falling apart. Could go from 227 seats to 27. The number of total seats has been reduced by a third but still.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,357
    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Locally driven planning with greater freedom. Corruption corruption corruption.

    It's more that that's completely counter to what government has wanted from the planning system for as long as I can certainly remember. Government has imposed rules to ensure building occurs, as they know if you leave it local in this country even very good proposals, or very needed ones, will not get through. Prior zonal proposals were hated (albeit to a large degree that was around the formula for housing), but at least an attempt to simplify things.

    I really don't understand how giving more ways to say no from locals is going to help the problems we have in the system. Developers are taking advantage of it, definitely, but neighbourhood plans require immense local effort and need updating so often (or have to be bypassed if housing land supply is not met), that it is not worth the effort, so how are very local plans going to be created? How will housing get approved, and built in good time?
    Our neighbourhood plan is well thought out
    It matters not. Building will take precedence over a Neighbourhood Plan.
    Not if the neighbourhood plan filters into the Local Plan

    The local plan again doesn't have any sway
    over the push to build
    It does, you can’t build outside the Local Plan areas allocated

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,357

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    EPG said:

    Bus privatisation has been a slam dunk disaster.

    Water privatisation has likely been a disaster.

    Train privatisation can be argued either way I think.

    It us interesting that both the Post Office and the trains were privatisations that Mrs Thatcher considered to be beyond the pale. I personally think that Rail privatisation has been a success but could have been so much better had it not been botched by Major. On the Post Office I think it is a stupid idea (privatisation I mean). There are certain services that work better if run by a Government.
    I don't think mail is one of those. I don't care if DHL or Government DHL brings my parcel.
    It is if you want a universal postal service. Otherwise you end up with many parts of the country getting a substandard service.
    Who needs post any more? Other than parcels. Letter post has ceased to be a necessity.
    You need parcels in rural areas and there it is still mainly Royal Mail not Amazon or DHL who deliver them
    not here, which is pretty bloody rural. DHL evri DPD Amazon all in it.
    Where is that? Plus Amazon and DHL will charge more than Royal Mail for delivering to rural areas
    West Devon. No they won't Amazon Prime is flat rate everywhere, parcelforce is extra for IV and islands and IoW.
    Do you live in a village or town? If the latter you are not rural.

    Amazon Prime itself costs extra
    Amazon Prime includes access to its Amazon original videos and premiership football together with free delivery for £95 pa
    Which is not cheap, especially for those on low incomes and 100 times the price of a first class stamp let alone a second
    What on earth has a first class stamp got to do with parcel deliveries

    You really are out of touch
    Quite a lot, you can send small and medium sized parcels with just first class stamps
    Rubbish and you made first class stamp plural which you did not originally
    You call me out of touch but propose the poor in rural areas pay £95 for Amazon Prime for deliveries rather than get a few first class stamps
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 25,298
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,510
    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Locally driven planning with greater freedom. Corruption corruption corruption.

    It's more that that's completely counter to what government has wanted from the planning system for as long as I can certainly remember. Government has imposed rules to ensure building occurs, as they know if you leave it local in this country even very good proposals, or very needed ones, will not get through. Prior zonal proposals were hated (albeit to a large degree that was around the formula for housing), but at least an attempt to simplify things.

    I really don't understand how giving more ways to say no from locals is going to help the problems we have in the system. Developers are taking advantage of it, definitely, but neighbourhood plans require immense local effort and need updating so often (or have to be bypassed if housing land supply is not met), that it is not worth the effort, so how are very local plans going to be created? How will housing get approved, and built in good time?
    Our neighbourhood plan is well thought out
    It matters not. Building will take precedence over a Neighbourhood Plan.
    Not if the neighbourhood plan filters into the Local Plan

    The local plan again doesn't have any sway
    over the push to build
    It does, you can’t build outside the Local Plan areas allocated

    Yes you can. Two options off the top of my head:

    1 - Para 12, NPPF

    2 - If you lack a 5 year land supply.
This discussion has been closed.