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ConHome survey has Truss 32% ahead – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited August 21 in General
imageConHome survey has Truss 32% ahead – politicalbetting.com

However you look at this Liz Truss is now a near certainty to become the next Conservative leader and Prime Minister. Yet we will still have to wait for 3 weeks before we get the official declaration and then, no doubt, the trip to the Palace.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • dobbindobbin Posts: 26
    First? Wide awake with elbow gout!
  • vikvik Posts: 157
    I am far from convinced that these prolonged leadership races which seem to go on and on are healthy thing for a party. The problem is that if you involve the membership then you have to factor in the time to produce and send out the ballot packs ...
    Would Mike also support the Liberal Democrats changing their procedures & removing the right of the membership to elect their leader ? :smile:

    If not, then it seems hardly fair to demand that other parties change their procedure but not your own party :smile:

    Having a say in electing the leader is one of the few rewards for the ordinary party member. Removing it would lead to a further decline in party membership for the larger parties. It'll be bad for democracy in the long-term and would strengthen extremist parties.
  • vikvik Posts: 157
    After removing undecideds, Truss is on 68%, 69%, 65% & 69% in the most recent 4 polls from ConHome, Opinium, techne & Yougov. The simple average of these 4 polls is 68%.

    Truss is currently priced at 4.2 in the members' vote percentage market for the 65 to 69.99% band, so there is possible value in this bet.

    Interestingly, in the 2019 contest, Johnson was on 65%, 74% & 61% in the last 3 polls from Opinium, Yougov & ComRes. The simple average of these 3 was 66.4% & was quite close to his actual vote of 66.4%.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 16,479
    Betfair next prime minister
    1.07 Liz Truss 93%
    14 Rishi Sunak 7%

    Next Conservative leader
    1.07 Liz Truss 93%
    13.5 Rishi Sunak 7%
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 42,730
    BREAKING: Trump Organization CFO Allen Weisselberg will plead guilty on Thursday to 15 felonies and has reportedly agreed to testify against the company regarding a 15-year tax fraud scheme.
    https://twitter.com/joncoopertweets/status/1560021880182083584
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 42,730
    dobbin said:

    First? Wide awake with elbow gout!

    That sounds painful.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 3,692
    I'm beginning to see the glimmer of a possibility that she might actually win this thing.

    I wonder if she'll be any good?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 16,479
    edited August 18
    The contrast between the candidates in Belfast seemed clear. Liz had customised her spiel for Northern Ireland; Rishi repeated his standard introduction for the umpteenth time (and I'm not getting into the synthetic row about British vs Irish) as if going through the motions.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 16,479
    Economists question credibility of Liz Truss plan to cut taxes

    Plans by Liz Truss to cut tax are “hard to square” with economic reality because inflation will push up welfare and debt interest payments by tens of billions of pounds, according to a think tank.

    The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) said permanent tax cuts were not plausible when inflation was at record levels and set to exceed 13 per cent this year. It forecast that interest payments on the UK’s debt would reach £104 billion next year, twice what was expected in March.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/economists-question-credibility-liz-truss-plan-cut-taxes-n6tzcdx7w (£££)
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 16,479
    edited August 18
    Poor old Rishi. The Times did not even bother to mention he was criticised as well, although his proposals are more nebulous than Liz's.

    “The reality is that the UK has got poorer over the last year. That makes tax and spending decisions all the more difficult. It is hard to square the promises that both Ms Truss and Mr Sunak are making to cut taxes over the medium-term with the absence of any specific measures to cut public spending and a presumed desire to manage the nation’s finances responsibly.”
    https://ifs.org.uk/publications/16154

  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 16,479

    The contrast between the candidates in Belfast seemed clear. Liz had customised her spiel for Northern Ireland; Rishi repeated his standard introduction for the umpteenth time (and I'm not getting into the synthetic row about British vs Irish) as if going through the motions.

    Having said that, Liz Truss did wear a purple dress and a green emerald pendant, not colours traditionally associated with the loyalist cause.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 16,479
    edited August 18
    Nigelb said:

    Fishing said:

    I'm beginning to see the glimmer of a possibility that she might actually win this thing.

    I wonder if she'll be any good?

    It’s good to maintain a sense of humour.
    Truss does seem to be reliant on the loopier end of Conservative thinking for policy ideas, even if she has also been willing to ditch them when called out, or at least qualify them so that, for instance, raising defence spending to 3% of GDP has been kicked out to the end of the decade, aka the long grass, aka a world in which Truss wins the next two general elections. The corollary is her tendency to pronounce on subjects she has given little thought. It is possible she will appoint a better Cabinet than Boris's.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 16,479
    The Gambia tells UK grandmothers to seek toy boys elsewhere
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/08/17/gambia-tells-uk-grandmothers-seek-toy-boys-elsewhere/ (£££)
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 16,479
    The Daily Star nails it:-


  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 41,239

    Nigelb said:

    Fishing said:

    I'm beginning to see the glimmer of a possibility that she might actually win this thing.

    I wonder if she'll be any good?

    It’s good to maintain a sense of humour.
    Truss does seem to be reliant on the loopier end of Conservative thinking for policy ideas, even if she has also been willing to ditch them when called out, or at least qualify them so that, for instance, raising defence spending to 3% of GDP has been kicked out to the end of the decade, aka the long grass, aka a world in which Truss wins the next two general elections. The corollary is her tendency to pronounce on subjects she has given little thought. It is possible she will appoint a better Cabinet than Boris's.
    It could only be worse if she puts Bone, Fabricant and Chope into ministries. Even she wouldn’t do that…..
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 42,730
    edited August 18
    vik said:

    I am far from convinced that these prolonged leadership races which seem to go on and on are healthy thing for a party. The problem is that if you involve the membership then you have to factor in the time to produce and send out the ballot packs ...

    Would Mike also support the Liberal Democrats changing their procedures & removing the right of the membership to elect their leader ? :smile:

    If not, then it seems hardly fair to demand that other parties change their procedure but not your own party :smile:

    Having a say in electing the leader is one of the few rewards for the ordinary party member. Removing it would lead to a further decline in party membership for the larger parties. It'll be bad for democracy in the long-term and would strengthen extremist parties.

    Mike’s header didn’t ‘demand’ any such thing.

    But he makes a good point about the inherent problem.
    It would have taken considerably less time to hold a general election to choose a new PM. The current spectacle is a self indulgence on the part of the Conservatives that the rest of the country cannot afford.

    (edit.. you also managed to mess up the block quotes in a single post.
    Now repaired,)
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 42,730
    Glancing back to the previous thread, it does begin to look quite possible that the Dobbs decision is going to have a significant electoral impact in November.
    And it’s also notable that the polling on the issue itself has shifted significantly in favour of abortion rights since the decision.

    https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2022/08/voters-mad-roe-overturned-democrats-midterm-polls.html
    … this has all happened despite President Joe Biden’s abysmal approval ratings, which have, ticked up just a few points to about 40 percent approval. So, what explains the apparent shift? One highly plausible explanation for Democrats’ polling improvement can be found in the responses to additional questions included in a number of these latest polls: Democratic and Independent voters appear steamed over the Supreme Court’s decision in June to overturn Roe v. Wade and end constitutional protections for reproductive health care.

    In the Wisconsin poll from Marquette Law School, for instance, 55 percent of voters said they were “very concerned” about abortion and 25 percent said they were “somewhat concerned.” In that same poll, 60 percent of voters opposed the Supreme Court’s decision to end the constitutional right and overturn Roe, with a full 62 percent of Independents opposing it. The poll also showed that 65 percent of Wisconsin voters thought abortion should be legal in all or most cases, compared to just 58 percent in the same survey in June before Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization was decided.

    These trends are in line with other recent polls. In Tuesday’s favorable University of North Florida poll result for Demings, a full 51 percent of respondents said that Dobbs made them more likely to vote in November. This phenomenon was especially pronounced among Democrats, with 78 percent saying the decision made them more likely to vote in November…
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 54,002
    Good morning

    I agree with the thread and the way this has been handled and with Johnson disappearing is absolutely terrible and shames the party and especially 1922 committee which just has to review and quicken future contests

    The only consolation is it ends 2 weeks on monday when Tuss will become PM and we have a bank holiday weekend in between

    The conservative party have gifted Labour a huge advantage and I will be very surprised if they are able to recover in the next two years, though I doubt the next government is going to have an easy time going forward whoever it is
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 16,479
    Nigelb said:

    vik said:

    I am far from convinced that these prolonged leadership races which seem to go on and on are healthy thing for a party. The problem is that if you involve the membership then you have to factor in the time to produce and send out the ballot packs ...

    Would Mike also support the Liberal Democrats changing their procedures & removing the right of the membership to elect their leader ? :smile:

    If not, then it seems hardly fair to demand that other parties change their procedure but not your own party :smile:

    Having a say in electing the leader is one of the few rewards for the ordinary party member. Removing it would lead to a further decline in party membership for the larger parties. It'll be bad for democracy in the long-term and would strengthen extremist parties.

    Mike’s header didn’t ‘demand’ any such thing.

    But he makes a good point about the inherent problem.
    It would have taken considerably less time to hold a general election to choose a new PM. The current spectacle is a self indulgence on the part of the Conservatives that the rest of the country cannot afford.

    (edit.. you also managed to mess up the block quotes in a single post.
    Now repaired,)
    Who is running the country? Step forward the Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster.

    Cabinet Office Minister Kit Malthouse said options were being considered to help Brits deal with the cash pain.

    He said: “We are putting the Government on war footing, if you like, so that a new prime minister in just a couple of weeks’ time is able to make some quick decisions on where he or she wants to take the country and the economy.”

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/19542056/kit-malthouse-cost-of-living-crisis/
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 20,393
    off-topic: a fun* morning at Alicante airport. Ryanair make up much of the early flights, and the airport decided on a single queue for 13 flights.

    You can imagine how that went! Anyway, made it through (just). Nobody queueing at security, and the bars / restaurants with few customers as everyone was stood in an endless queue to drop bags.
  • TazTaz Posts: 5,775
    Labour rising star, Zarah Sultana, currently on GMB talking about the Enough is Enough campaign and condemning Keir Starmers leadership, or lack of, on the cost of living crisis. The interviewers are giving her a very easy time so it is hard to see how she’d cope under more pressured interviewing. She’s raising her profile for sure.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 42,730
    This is a very disturbing report in the Ukrainian press, which hopefully will result in action from the Ukraine authorities.

    Suicide missions, abuse, physical threats: International Legion fighters speak out against leadership’s misconduct
    https://kyivindependent.com/investigations/suicide-missions-abuse-physical-threats-international-legion-fighters-speak-out-against-leaderships-misconduct
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 34,333
    edited August 18


    The issue of paralysis and drift only really is a problem when the party leader is PM. Other parties, even the LOTO, can and probably should take plenty of time choosing the right person.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 46,536
    ConHome is self-reporting and doesn't cover all members (for example, I voted Rishi but never completed this survey) but, yes, Truss will still win.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 46,536
    vik said:

    After removing undecideds, Truss is on 68%, 69%, 65% & 69% in the most recent 4 polls from ConHome, Opinium, techne & Yougov. The simple average of these 4 polls is 68%.

    Truss is currently priced at 4.2 in the members' vote percentage market for the 65 to 69.99% band, so there is possible value in this bet.

    Interestingly, in the 2019 contest, Johnson was on 65%, 74% & 61% in the last 3 polls from Opinium, Yougov & ComRes. The simple average of these 3 was 66.4% & was quite close to his actual vote of 66.4%.

    I don't think there's value in that band.

    In fact, there's massive error in that band, possibly up to +/- 10%.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 34,333
    Taz said:

    Labour rising star, Zarah Sultana, currently on GMB talking about the Enough is Enough campaign and condemning Keir Starmers leadership, or lack of, on the cost of living crisis. The interviewers are giving her a very easy time so it is hard to see how she’d cope under more pressured interviewing. She’s raising her profile for sure.

    Her politics can be dubious, but her social media following and passion is very good indeed. I have a soft spot for her as the keeper of the Corbynite flame.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 103,337
    edited August 18
    vik said:

    After removing undecideds, Truss is on 68%, 69%, 65% & 69% in the most recent 4 polls from ConHome, Opinium, techne & Yougov. The simple average of these 4 polls is 68%.

    Truss is currently priced at 4.2 in the members' vote percentage market for the 65 to 69.99% band, so there is possible value in this bet.

    Interestingly, in the 2019 contest, Johnson was on 65%, 74% & 61% in the last 3 polls from Opinium, Yougov & ComRes. The simple average of these 3 was 66.4% & was quite close to his actual vote of 66.4%.

    I fear I am going to lose this bet very narrowly


  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,344
    Good morning, everyone.

    F1: Perez can be backed each way to win in Belgium at 26 (with boost) on Ladbrokes. Only Verstappen has more top 2 finishes this year. Not guaranteed at all (six horse race) but his odds are too long.

    Decided to back Truss on the 65-70% and 70%+ markets.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 34,333

    vik said:

    After removing undecideds, Truss is on 68%, 69%, 65% & 69% in the most recent 4 polls from ConHome, Opinium, techne & Yougov. The simple average of these 4 polls is 68%.

    Truss is currently priced at 4.2 in the members' vote percentage market for the 65 to 69.99% band, so there is possible value in this bet.

    Interestingly, in the 2019 contest, Johnson was on 65%, 74% & 61% in the last 3 polls from Opinium, Yougov & ComRes. The simple average of these 3 was 66.4% & was quite close to his actual vote of 66.4%.

    I fear I am going to lose this bet very narrowly


    I think it still a good bet. Tory leadership contests going to the members are not tight contests. The next band is probably the winner, but with MoE, this one too needs covering.

    I am on for similar money.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 71,746
    The most likely next PM after Truss roughly 99.9% chance is Raab
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 41,239
    Taz said:

    Labour rising star, Zarah Sultana, currently on GMB talking about the Enough is Enough campaign and condemning Keir Starmers leadership, or lack of, on the cost of living crisis. The interviewers are giving her a very easy time so it is hard to see how she’d cope under more pressured interviewing. She’s raising her profile for sure.

    Oh Please.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 34,333
    Pulpstar said:

    The most likely next PM after Truss roughly 99.9% chance is Raab

    I would have thought Starmer!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 41,239
    Foxy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The most likely next PM after Truss roughly 99.9% chance is Raab

    I would have thought Starmer!
    Mr Pulp clearly has little confidence that she's going to be able to stick around for long!
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 22,950
    Foxy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The most likely next PM after Truss roughly 99.9% chance is Raab

    I would have thought Starmer!
    For the current Market.

    Truss is going to be next PM barring being struck by a meteorite. If Johnson is eaten by Nessie before then then Raab gets it.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 34,333
    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The most likely next PM after Truss roughly 99.9% chance is Raab

    I would have thought Starmer!
    Mr Pulp clearly has little confidence that she's going to be able to stick around for long!
    Clearly so, but I think Truss will lead the Tories into the next GE, and will lose badly. She will not be remembered fondly.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 2,773
    Foxy said:



    The issue of paralysis and drift only really is a problem when the party leader is PM. Other parties, even the LOTO, can and probably should take plenty of time choosing the right person.

    I agree. Membership votes are fine in opposition but as a PM choice it should really only be with the MPs as they are at the seat of power.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 71,746
    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The most likely next PM after Truss roughly 99.9% chance is Raab

    I would have thought Starmer!
    Mr Pulp clearly has little confidence that she's going to be able to stick around for long!
    I mean chance wise. Rishi is so far out of this it's Dem gain Oklahoma sort of territory
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 6,813
    Nigelb said:

    This is a very disturbing report in the Ukrainian press, which hopefully will result in action from the Ukraine authorities.

    Suicide missions, abuse, physical threats: International Legion fighters speak out against leadership’s misconduct
    https://kyivindependent.com/investigations/suicide-missions-abuse-physical-threats-international-legion-fighters-speak-out-against-leaderships-misconduct

    Completely predictable.

    And I think someone on pb.com (possibly @Dura_Ace ) predicted this would happen at the time when a call went out for volunteers for the International Legion.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 17,823
    Fishing said:

    I'm beginning to see the glimmer of a possibility that she might actually win this thing.

    I wonder if she'll be any good?

    Ms Truss could just sneak this!

    Would she be any good? Hmmm, I don't believe Boris Johnson thinks she will. After ensuring she curtails the Privileges Committee's investigation into Johnson, and a chaotic few months of U- turns, I expect him to launch a challenge against her, win his coronation and call a General Election. A grateful nation will (and he is quite possibly correct) reward him with another landslide. Remember, the inflationary carnage and fuel poverty accelerated into warp speed 9.5 after his resignation.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 41,239

    Fishing said:

    I'm beginning to see the glimmer of a possibility that she might actually win this thing.

    I wonder if she'll be any good?

    Ms Truss could just sneak this!

    Would she be any good? Hmmm, I don't believe Boris Johnson thinks she will. After ensuring she curtails the Privileges Committee's investigation into Johnson, and a chaotic few months of U- turns, I expect him to launch a challenge against her, win his coronation and call a General Election. A grateful nation will (and he is quite possibly correct) reward him with another landslide. Remember, the inflationary carnage and fuel poverty accelerated into warp speed 9.5 after his resignation.
    That depends heavily on how and why she turns out to be no good.

    If her flaws are similar to those of her predecessor, it will rebound upon them both and people will want a real change next time.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 35,987
    vik said:

    After removing undecideds, Truss is on 68%, 69%, 65% & 69% in the most recent 4 polls from ConHome, Opinium, techne & Yougov. The simple average of these 4 polls is 68%.

    Truss is currently priced at 4.2 in the members' vote percentage market for the 65 to 69.99% band, so there is possible value in this bet.

    Interestingly, in the 2019 contest, Johnson was on 65%, 74% & 61% in the last 3 polls from Opinium, Yougov & ComRes. The simple average of these 3 was 66.4% & was quite close to his actual vote of 66.4%.

    Good spot.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 7,115
    edited August 18

    Fishing said:

    I'm beginning to see the glimmer of a possibility that she might actually win this thing.

    I wonder if she'll be any good?

    Ms Truss could just sneak this!

    Would she be any good? Hmmm, I don't believe Boris Johnson thinks she will. After ensuring she curtails the Privileges Committee's investigation into Johnson, and a chaotic few months of U- turns, I expect him to launch a challenge against her, win his coronation and call a General Election. A grateful nation will (and he is quite possibly correct) reward him with another landslide. Remember, the inflationary carnage and fuel poverty accelerated into warp speed 9.5 after his resignation.
    It's going to be a useful early measure of Truss's ruthless pragmatism.

    "I was shocked to discover the the depths of my predecessor's wrongdoing and how much he misled all of us, myself included. Having read the committee's report, it is clear that Mr Johnson cannot remain a Conservative MP.

    But Unleashing Britain's Potential was never about one man, and the government's mission continues..."

    The old dears who buy Conservative meat raffle tickets won't like it, but after September 5, who cares about them?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 35,987
    Nigelb said:

    This is a very disturbing report in the Ukrainian press, which hopefully will result in action from the Ukraine authorities.

    Suicide missions, abuse, physical threats: International Legion fighters speak out against leadership’s misconduct
    https://kyivindependent.com/investigations/suicide-missions-abuse-physical-threats-international-legion-fighters-speak-out-against-leaderships-misconduct

    Careful. PB is not the place for this kind of cold analytical post which impugns the Ukrainians as engaging in behaviour which is unsurprising in war.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 35,987
    Sorry folks I just destroyed the over 70% market with literally about £2.50.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 17,823
    IanB2 said:

    Fishing said:

    I'm beginning to see the glimmer of a possibility that she might actually win this thing.

    I wonder if she'll be any good?

    Ms Truss could just sneak this!

    Would she be any good? Hmmm, I don't believe Boris Johnson thinks she will. After ensuring she curtails the Privileges Committee's investigation into Johnson, and a chaotic few months of U- turns, I expect him to launch a challenge against her, win his coronation and call a General Election. A grateful nation will (and he is quite possibly correct) reward him with another landslide. Remember, the inflationary carnage and fuel poverty accelerated into warp speed 9.5 after his resignation.
    That depends heavily on how and why she turns out to be no good.

    If her flaws are similar to those of her predecessor, it will rebound upon them both and people will want a real change next time.
    I think the slate is wiped clean for Johnson. We'd never had it so good, and then he resigned (the impression given is he's already gone) and things got really bad.

    Would you put it past him to plan for a resurrection once the calls for him to go became so loud? And who better than La Truss to make him appear like the consumate professional Prime Minister?
  • TazTaz Posts: 5,775
    Foxy said:

    Taz said:

    Labour rising star, Zarah Sultana, currently on GMB talking about the Enough is Enough campaign and condemning Keir Starmers leadership, or lack of, on the cost of living crisis. The interviewers are giving her a very easy time so it is hard to see how she’d cope under more pressured interviewing. She’s raising her profile for sure.

    Her politics can be dubious, but her social media following and passion is very good indeed. I have a soft spot for her as the keeper of the Corbynite flame.
    I thought she came over well when interviewed. She was not shrill or shouty, she was certainly not like her Twitter presence. She was calm, rational and balanced in how she spoke.

    Populism is a thing of the left and the right and she is clearly trying to tap into that on the left. Price caps, nationalisation, supporting the strikes. All of these things have public support.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 17,823
    edited August 18

    Fishing said:

    I'm beginning to see the glimmer of a possibility that she might actually win this thing.

    I wonder if she'll be any good?

    Ms Truss could just sneak this!

    Would she be any good? Hmmm, I don't believe Boris Johnson thinks she will. After ensuring she curtails the Privileges Committee's investigation into Johnson, and a chaotic few months of U- turns, I expect him to launch a challenge against her, win his coronation and call a General Election. A grateful nation will (and he is quite possibly correct) reward him with another landslide. Remember, the inflationary carnage and fuel poverty accelerated into warp speed 9.5 after his resignation.
    It's going to be a useful early measure of Truss's ruthless pragmatism.

    "I was shocked to discover the the depths of my predecessor's wrongdoing and how much he misled all of us, myself included. Having read the committee's report, it is clear that Mr Johnson cannot remain a Conservative MP.

    But Unleashing Britain's Potential was never about one man, and the government's mission continues..."

    The old dears who buy Conservative meat raffle tickets won't like it, but after September 5, who cares about them?
    So despite her suggesting she is minded to scrap the investigation, you believe she could U turn. Surely not?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 35,987
    Taz said:

    Foxy said:

    Taz said:

    Labour rising star, Zarah Sultana, currently on GMB talking about the Enough is Enough campaign and condemning Keir Starmers leadership, or lack of, on the cost of living crisis. The interviewers are giving her a very easy time so it is hard to see how she’d cope under more pressured interviewing. She’s raising her profile for sure.

    Her politics can be dubious, but her social media following and passion is very good indeed. I have a soft spot for her as the keeper of the Corbynite flame.
    I thought she came over well when interviewed. She was not shrill or shouty, she was certainly not like her Twitter presence. She was calm, rational and balanced in how she spoke.

    Populism is a thing of the left and the right and she is clearly trying to tap into that on the left. Price caps, nationalisation, supporting the strikes. All of these things have public support.
    Further evidence for people who think MPs are stupid.

    They are not. They can't be to have reached the position they have reached.

    They are bright (very), driven, focused and politically and socially aware (OK 98% of them). They are playing the electorate and us like a violin and provoke exactly the reactions they want to provoke.
  • eekeek Posts: 20,666

    IanB2 said:

    Fishing said:

    I'm beginning to see the glimmer of a possibility that she might actually win this thing.

    I wonder if she'll be any good?

    Ms Truss could just sneak this!

    Would she be any good? Hmmm, I don't believe Boris Johnson thinks she will. After ensuring she curtails the Privileges Committee's investigation into Johnson, and a chaotic few months of U- turns, I expect him to launch a challenge against her, win his coronation and call a General Election. A grateful nation will (and he is quite possibly correct) reward him with another landslide. Remember, the inflationary carnage and fuel poverty accelerated into warp speed 9.5 after his resignation.
    That depends heavily on how and why she turns out to be no good.

    If her flaws are similar to those of her predecessor, it will rebound upon them both and people will want a real change next time.
    I think the slate is wiped clean for Johnson. We'd never had it so good, and then he resigned (the impression given is he's already gone) and things got really bad.

    Would you put it past him to plan for a resurrection once the calls for him to go became so loud? And who better than La Truss to make him appear like the consumate professional Prime Minister?
    I've said for a while Bozo is an incredibly lucky general....
  • eekeek Posts: 20,666

    Fishing said:

    I'm beginning to see the glimmer of a possibility that she might actually win this thing.

    I wonder if she'll be any good?

    Ms Truss could just sneak this!

    Would she be any good? Hmmm, I don't believe Boris Johnson thinks she will. After ensuring she curtails the Privileges Committee's investigation into Johnson, and a chaotic few months of U- turns, I expect him to launch a challenge against her, win his coronation and call a General Election. A grateful nation will (and he is quite possibly correct) reward him with another landslide. Remember, the inflationary carnage and fuel poverty accelerated into warp speed 9.5 after his resignation.
    It's going to be a useful early measure of Truss's ruthless pragmatism.

    "I was shocked to discover the the depths of my predecessor's wrongdoing and how much he misled all of us, myself included. Having read the committee's report, it is clear that Mr Johnson cannot remain a Conservative MP.

    But Unleashing Britain's Potential was never about one man, and the government's mission continues..."

    The old dears who buy Conservative meat raffle tickets won't like it, but after September 5, who cares about them?
    The Tory party need to demonstrate that they are way more ruthless than the GOP were in February 2021. If they don't Bozo will just continue to haunt the party.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 28,959

    Fishing said:

    I'm beginning to see the glimmer of a possibility that she might actually win this thing.

    I wonder if she'll be any good?

    Ms Truss could just sneak this!

    Would she be any good? Hmmm, I don't believe Boris Johnson thinks she will. After ensuring she curtails the Privileges Committee's investigation into Johnson, and a chaotic few months of U- turns, I expect him to launch a challenge against her, win his coronation and call a General Election. A grateful nation will (and he is quite possibly correct) reward him with another landslide. Remember, the inflationary carnage and fuel poverty accelerated into warp speed 9.5 after his resignation.
    It's going to be a useful early measure of Truss's ruthless pragmatism.

    "I was shocked to discover the the depths of my predecessor's wrongdoing and how much he misled all of us, myself included. Having read the committee's report, it is clear that Mr Johnson cannot remain a Conservative MP.

    But Unleashing Britain's Potential was never about one man, and the government's mission continues..."

    The old dears who buy Conservative meat raffle tickets won't like it, but after September 5, who cares about them?
    So despite her suggesting she is minded to scrap the investigation, you believe she could U turn. Surely not?
    She can't can she? Not without getting into the sort of mess her predecessor did over Patterson?

    Remember how that turned out?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 24,543
    One well-placed financial services exec says that Truss is looking to merge Financial Conduct Authority, the Prudential Regulation Authority and the Payments Systems Regulator into a new body as part of “a wider war on technocrats” and civil servants.

    https://www.ft.com/content/af7b6638-c7f5-400b-878d-e56a58bd4151
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 102,736
    edited August 18
    Looks like a clear Truss win though, only question the margin of victory. She should at least match IDS' 60% to 40% victory over Clarke in 2001 if not more.

    The summer leadership campaign is also good for developing the winner's campaign skills. Of the last 2 general election majority winners for the Tories, Cameron and Boris, both were elected after campaigns to the membership as well as MPs.

    On the Labour side too Starmer, Corbyn and Ed Miliband were all elected with members having a vote. The last Labour leader nominated and elected solely by MPs (unopposed) Gordon Brown, only got 29% at the next general election, Labour's lowest voteshare since 1983
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 42,730
    TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    This is a very disturbing report in the Ukrainian press, which hopefully will result in action from the Ukraine authorities.

    Suicide missions, abuse, physical threats: International Legion fighters speak out against leadership’s misconduct
    https://kyivindependent.com/investigations/suicide-missions-abuse-physical-threats-international-legion-fighters-speak-out-against-leaderships-misconduct

    Careful. PB is not the place for this kind of cold analytical post which impugns the Ukrainians as engaging in behaviour which is unsurprising in war.
    To make folks happier, then, I'll point out that you're unlikely to see comparable articles in the Russian media.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 17,823
    edited August 18

    Fishing said:

    I'm beginning to see the glimmer of a possibility that she might actually win this thing.

    I wonder if she'll be any good?

    Ms Truss could just sneak this!

    Would she be any good? Hmmm, I don't believe Boris Johnson thinks she will. After ensuring she curtails the Privileges Committee's investigation into Johnson, and a chaotic few months of U- turns, I expect him to launch a challenge against her, win his coronation and call a General Election. A grateful nation will (and he is quite possibly correct) reward him with another landslide. Remember, the inflationary carnage and fuel poverty accelerated into warp speed 9.5 after his resignation.
    It's going to be a useful early measure of Truss's ruthless pragmatism.

    "I was shocked to discover the the depths of my predecessor's wrongdoing and how much he misled all of us, myself included. Having read the committee's report, it is clear that Mr Johnson cannot remain a Conservative MP.

    But Unleashing Britain's Potential was never about one man, and the government's mission continues..."

    The old dears who buy Conservative meat raffle tickets won't like it, but after September 5, who cares about them?
    So despite her suggesting she is minded to scrap the investigation, you believe she could U turn. Surely not?
    She can't can she? Not without getting into the sort of mess her predecessor did over Patterson?

    Remember how that turned out?
    Honeymoon? The Parliamentary Conservative Party seem comfortable with not punishing Johnson any more.

    If she struggles, and she will, he is in pole position to return as PM. And we will all think we are grateful and reward him with another five years.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 35,987
    Scott_xP said:

    One well-placed financial services exec says that Truss is looking to merge Financial Conduct Authority, the Prudential Regulation Authority and the Payments Systems Regulator into a new body as part of “a wider war on technocrats” and civil servants.

    https://www.ft.com/content/af7b6638-c7f5-400b-878d-e56a58bd4151

    QED

    It might be spun any old way (war on waste, etc) but to merge regulators is far from the stupidest idea in the world.

    As of course and famously Peter Lilley in effect warned 25 years ago.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 7,115

    Fishing said:

    I'm beginning to see the glimmer of a possibility that she might actually win this thing.

    I wonder if she'll be any good?

    Ms Truss could just sneak this!

    Would she be any good? Hmmm, I don't believe Boris Johnson thinks she will. After ensuring she curtails the Privileges Committee's investigation into Johnson, and a chaotic few months of U- turns, I expect him to launch a challenge against her, win his coronation and call a General Election. A grateful nation will (and he is quite possibly correct) reward him with another landslide. Remember, the inflationary carnage and fuel poverty accelerated into warp speed 9.5 after his resignation.
    It's going to be a useful early measure of Truss's ruthless pragmatism.

    "I was shocked to discover the the depths of my predecessor's wrongdoing and how much he misled all of us, myself included. Having read the committee's report, it is clear that Mr Johnson cannot remain a Conservative MP.

    But Unleashing Britain's Potential was never about one man, and the government's mission continues..."

    The old dears who buy Conservative meat raffle tickets won't like it, but after September 5, who cares about them?
    So despite her suggesting she is minded to scrap the investigation, you believe she could U turn. Surely not?
    She can't can she? Not without getting into the sort of mess her predecessor did over Patterson?

    Remember how that turned out?
    Honeymoon? The Parliamentary Conservative Party seem comfortable with not punishing Johnson any more.

    If she struggles, and she will, he is in pole position to return as PM. And we will all think we are grateful and reward him with another five years.
    The easy lazy thing will be to smother the investigation, claim it is a partisan witchhunt and a distraction at a time of real national crisis.

    But the smart thing for Truss is to definitively get him out of the way. Because even if Volume 2 of Bozza's Brilliant Premiership is a mad pipe dream, it will be talked about and that will be bad for her.

    Besides- cutting an exhalted rival off at the knees at their moment of maximum weakness? It's what Bozza would do to others. And if he has to go, maybe this is how he'd want it to happen. Nature's way.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 9,641

    Fishing said:

    I'm beginning to see the glimmer of a possibility that she might actually win this thing.

    I wonder if she'll be any good?

    Ms Truss could just sneak this!

    Would she be any good? Hmmm, I don't believe Boris Johnson thinks she will. After ensuring she curtails the Privileges Committee's investigation into Johnson, and a chaotic few months of U- turns, I expect him to launch a challenge against her, win his coronation and call a General Election. A grateful nation will (and he is quite possibly correct) reward him with another landslide. Remember, the inflationary carnage and fuel poverty accelerated into warp speed 9.5 after his resignation.
    It's going to be a useful early measure of Truss's ruthless pragmatism.

    "I was shocked to discover the the depths of my predecessor's wrongdoing and how much he misled all of us, myself included. Having read the committee's report, it is clear that Mr Johnson cannot remain a Conservative MP.

    But Unleashing Britain's Potential was never about one man, and the government's mission continues..."

    The old dears who buy Conservative meat raffle tickets won't like it, but after September 5, who cares about them?
    I've never seen the Tory leadership contest called a meat raffle before.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 71,746
    Scott_xP said:

    One well-placed financial services exec says that Truss is looking to merge Financial Conduct Authority, the Prudential Regulation Authority and the Payments Systems Regulator into a new body as part of “a wider war on technocrats” and civil servants.

    https://www.ft.com/content/af7b6638-c7f5-400b-878d-e56a58bd4151

    The FCA has been worse than useless recently anyway. They examine fundamentally the wrong things.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 17,823

    Fishing said:

    I'm beginning to see the glimmer of a possibility that she might actually win this thing.

    I wonder if she'll be any good?

    Ms Truss could just sneak this!

    Would she be any good? Hmmm, I don't believe Boris Johnson thinks she will. After ensuring she curtails the Privileges Committee's investigation into Johnson, and a chaotic few months of U- turns, I expect him to launch a challenge against her, win his coronation and call a General Election. A grateful nation will (and he is quite possibly correct) reward him with another landslide. Remember, the inflationary carnage and fuel poverty accelerated into warp speed 9.5 after his resignation.
    It's going to be a useful early measure of Truss's ruthless pragmatism.

    "I was shocked to discover the the depths of my predecessor's wrongdoing and how much he misled all of us, myself included. Having read the committee's report, it is clear that Mr Johnson cannot remain a Conservative MP.

    But Unleashing Britain's Potential was never about one man, and the government's mission continues..."

    The old dears who buy Conservative meat raffle tickets won't like it, but after September 5, who cares about them?
    So despite her suggesting she is minded to scrap the investigation, you believe she could U turn. Surely not?
    She can't can she? Not without getting into the sort of mess her predecessor did over Patterson?

    Remember how that turned out?
    Honeymoon? The Parliamentary Conservative Party seem comfortable with not punishing Johnson any more.

    If she struggles, and she will, he is in pole position to return as PM. And we will all think we are grateful and reward him with another five years.
    The easy lazy thing will be to smother the investigation, claim it is a partisan witchhunt and a distraction at a time of real national crisis.

    But the smart thing for Truss is to definitively get him out of the way. Because even if Volume 2 of Bozza's Brilliant Premiership is a mad pipe dream, it will be talked about and that will be bad for her.

    Besides- cutting an exhalted rival off at the knees at their moment of maximum weakness? It's what Bozza would do to others. And if he has to go, maybe this is how he'd want it to happen. Nature's way.
    "Operation put down BigDog" works for me, but has Truss got the will to do it? I don't think she has, and as such he will be back, and he will crush her and the opposition parties.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 25,994
    edited August 18

    Nigelb said:

    vik said:

    I am far from convinced that these prolonged leadership races which seem to go on and on are healthy thing for a party. The problem is that if you involve the membership then you have to factor in the time to produce and send out the ballot packs ...

    Would Mike also support the Liberal Democrats changing their procedures & removing the right of the membership to elect their leader ? :smile:

    If not, then it seems hardly fair to demand that other parties change their procedure but not your own party :smile:

    Having a say in electing the leader is one of the few rewards for the ordinary party member. Removing it would lead to a further decline in party membership for the larger parties. It'll be bad for democracy in the long-term and would strengthen extremist parties.

    Mike’s header didn’t ‘demand’ any such thing.

    But he makes a good point about the inherent problem.
    It would have taken considerably less time to hold a general election to choose a new PM. The current spectacle is a self indulgence on the part of the Conservatives that the rest of the country cannot afford.

    (edit.. you also managed to mess up the block quotes in a single post.
    Now repaired,)
    Who is running the country? Step forward the Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster.

    Cabinet Office Minister Kit Malthouse said options were being considered to help Brits deal with the cash pain.

    He said: “We are putting the Government on war footing, if you like, so that a new prime minister in just a couple of weeks’ time is able to make some quick decisions on where he or she wants to take the country and the economy.”

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/19542056/kit-malthouse-cost-of-living-crisis/
    What's the point of having Raab C. Brexit as deputy PM then?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 28,959

    Fishing said:

    I'm beginning to see the glimmer of a possibility that she might actually win this thing.

    I wonder if she'll be any good?

    Ms Truss could just sneak this!

    Would she be any good? Hmmm, I don't believe Boris Johnson thinks she will. After ensuring she curtails the Privileges Committee's investigation into Johnson, and a chaotic few months of U- turns, I expect him to launch a challenge against her, win his coronation and call a General Election. A grateful nation will (and he is quite possibly correct) reward him with another landslide. Remember, the inflationary carnage and fuel poverty accelerated into warp speed 9.5 after his resignation.
    It's going to be a useful early measure of Truss's ruthless pragmatism.

    "I was shocked to discover the the depths of my predecessor's wrongdoing and how much he misled all of us, myself included. Having read the committee's report, it is clear that Mr Johnson cannot remain a Conservative MP.

    But Unleashing Britain's Potential was never about one man, and the government's mission continues..."

    The old dears who buy Conservative meat raffle tickets won't like it, but after September 5, who cares about them?
    So despite her suggesting she is minded to scrap the investigation, you believe she could U turn. Surely not?
    She can't can she? Not without getting into the sort of mess her predecessor did over Patterson?

    Remember how that turned out?
    Honeymoon? The Parliamentary Conservative Party seem comfortable with not punishing Johnson any more.

    If she struggles, and she will, he is in pole position to return as PM. And we will all think we are grateful and reward him with another five years.
    The easy lazy thing will be to smother the investigation, claim it is a partisan witchhunt and a distraction at a time of real national crisis.

    But the smart thing for Truss is to definitively get him out of the way. Because even if Volume 2 of Bozza's Brilliant Premiership is a mad pipe dream, it will be talked about and that will be bad for her.

    Besides- cutting an exhalted rival off at the knees at their moment of maximum weakness? It's what Bozza would do to others. And if he has to go, maybe this is how he'd want it to happen. Nature's way.
    "Here's the deal Boris! You keep schtum and wait for the New Year's Honours list! "
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 3,054
    TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    This is a very disturbing report in the Ukrainian press, which hopefully will result in action from the Ukraine authorities.

    Suicide missions, abuse, physical threats: International Legion fighters speak out against leadership’s misconduct
    https://kyivindependent.com/investigations/suicide-missions-abuse-physical-threats-international-legion-fighters-speak-out-against-leaderships-misconduct

    Careful. PB is not the place for this kind of cold analytical post which impugns the Ukrainians as engaging in behaviour which is unsurprising in war.
    The real news I took away from reading that article is that one of the leaders of the Polish mafia is known only as "Wanka" -

    "According to reports in Polish media, in Poland, Piotr Kapuscinski is known as “Broda” (Beard), an influential former member of the Pruszków gang, once the largest mafia in the country. He was the right-hand man of the group’s inner leadership, "Wanka" and "Malizna," and laundered money for them, according to Mariusz Kaminski..."

    I presume said mafia don is either a) a huge fan of cockney gangster flicks or b) he's a 6 ft 8 brick hithouse of a man and nobody dares tell him what his name means in English.

    Either way, a bit of levity in an otherwise shocking report (and bravo to the Kyiv Independent for publishing it).
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 103,337
    Scott_xP said:

    One well-placed financial services exec says that Truss is looking to merge Financial Conduct Authority, the Prudential Regulation Authority and the Payments Systems Regulator into a new body as part of “a wider war on technocrats” and civil servants.

    https://www.ft.com/content/af7b6638-c7f5-400b-878d-e56a58bd4151

    She’s worse than Gordon Brown.
  • pm215pm215 Posts: 416
    vik said:

    Having a say in electing the leader is one of the few rewards for the ordinary party member. Removing it would lead to a further decline in party membership for the larger parties. It'll be bad for democracy in the long-term and would strengthen extremist parties.

    True, but there's a lot of scope for different ways in which that 'say' feeds into the final result -- should the members get the final decisive choice, or do you combine that with the choice of MPs somehow, for instance? And the length of the contest is definitely up for debate, as others have noted.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 46,536

    The Daily Star nails it:-


    It's bollocks though. That might be the parliamentary recesses but a PM is on call 24/7 and has to deal with issues wherever they are all year round.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 35,987
    .

    Scott_xP said:

    One well-placed financial services exec says that Truss is looking to merge Financial Conduct Authority, the Prudential Regulation Authority and the Payments Systems Regulator into a new body as part of “a wider war on technocrats” and civil servants.

    https://www.ft.com/content/af7b6638-c7f5-400b-878d-e56a58bd4151

    The super-rich want no oversight, no restraint. They've quickly filled our rivers and beaches back up with shit once EU rules didn't apply. That's just the beginning.

    I don't always agree with Zoe Williams but her piece today strikes a chord with me:

    '“If there is a class war – and there is – it is important that it should be handled with subtlety and skill,” wrote Maurice Cowling, the influential rightwing historian, in the late 1970s. “It is not freedom that Conservatives want; what they want is the sort of freedom that will maintain existing inequalities or restore lost ones.” The nature of Conservatism has altered very little since, but the class on whose behalf the Tory party fights has changed dramatically: where once it was doctors and lawyers, businessmen, “respectable people”, it is now hedge fund managers and property developers, the filthy, the super, the Croesus rich. If you’re less wealthy than Jacob Rees-Mogg, the party has fought a 12-year war against you, and – newsflash – it won...

    '...the class war wasn’t fought with subtlety and skill, it was fought in a more modern fashion, with misinformation. The argument for austerity was built on complementary, nonsensical narratives: most disabled people were faking it; most people on benefits were too lazy to work; most waste in the benefits system was lost to fraud; a class of the workshy had been created by benefits; the “big society” was good, because it was much nicer to get your neighbour’s help than to have properly funded public services; parents know more about education than local authorities; and so on...

    'With Brexit, at least we were arguing about something real: what happened in relation to Europe mattered, for our prosperity, for our intellectual life, for our rights, for the union, for the climate... In fact, the escapade was there to deliver only one outcome: the destruction of regulation by which workers and citizens protect and assert themselves against the interests of capital. It was just the second wave of the war...

    '...If you look at the level of public debt, the high inflation, the low growth and the tax burden, we’re already in a postwar economy. It was just a different kind of war, a class war masquerading as a kulturkampf, and we lost...'


    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/aug/17/inflation-10-percent-class-war-brexit-cost-of-living-crisis

    The nation is being exploited by the real cosmopolitan elite. They've completely divided and then conquered us. All of us will be, are being, negatively affected. I don't see how you can look at the state of the country and think anything else.
    Maybe you're right. But I suggest you do some research into what the Labour Party is doing about it all.

    David Skelton: The New Snobbery

    TL;DR - Labour has been at the forefront of the war against those in the lower socio-economic groupings.
  • eekeek Posts: 20,666

    Fishing said:

    I'm beginning to see the glimmer of a possibility that she might actually win this thing.

    I wonder if she'll be any good?

    Ms Truss could just sneak this!

    Would she be any good? Hmmm, I don't believe Boris Johnson thinks she will. After ensuring she curtails the Privileges Committee's investigation into Johnson, and a chaotic few months of U- turns, I expect him to launch a challenge against her, win his coronation and call a General Election. A grateful nation will (and he is quite possibly correct) reward him with another landslide. Remember, the inflationary carnage and fuel poverty accelerated into warp speed 9.5 after his resignation.
    It's going to be a useful early measure of Truss's ruthless pragmatism.

    "I was shocked to discover the the depths of my predecessor's wrongdoing and how much he misled all of us, myself included. Having read the committee's report, it is clear that Mr Johnson cannot remain a Conservative MP.

    But Unleashing Britain's Potential was never about one man, and the government's mission continues..."

    The old dears who buy Conservative meat raffle tickets won't like it, but after September 5, who cares about them?
    So despite her suggesting she is minded to scrap the investigation, you believe she could U turn. Surely not?
    She can't can she? Not without getting into the sort of mess her predecessor did over Patterson?

    Remember how that turned out?
    Honeymoon? The Parliamentary Conservative Party seem comfortable with not punishing Johnson any more.

    If she struggles, and she will, he is in pole position to return as PM. And we will all think we are grateful and reward him with another five years.
    The easy lazy thing will be to smother the investigation, claim it is a partisan witchhunt and a distraction at a time of real national crisis.

    But the smart thing for Truss is to definitively get him out of the way. Because even if Volume 2 of Bozza's Brilliant Premiership is a mad pipe dream, it will be talked about and that will be bad for her.

    Besides- cutting an exhalted rival off at the knees at their moment of maximum weakness? It's what Bozza would do to others. And if he has to go, maybe this is how he'd want it to happen. Nature's way.
    "Here's the deal Boris! You keep schtum and wait for the New Year's Honours list! "
    Here's the deal Boris! You resign now or I ensure the Privileges committee suspend you long enough that a recall petition can be called....
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 17,147
    Happy Teenage-Girls-Leaping-in-the-Air Day!

    Meanwhile, 13degC here - central heating back on!
  • eekeek Posts: 20,666

    The Daily Star nails it:-


    It's bollocks though. That might be the parliamentary recesses but a PM is on call 24/7 and has to deal with issues wherever they are all year round.
    The media can help people perceive things very differently to real reality.

    Remember you only need to fool some of the people some of the time - and that 13 week holiday alongside 4 day weeks will stick with enough people to have an impact.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 4,083
    edited August 18
    vik said:

    "I am far from convinced that these prolonged leadership races which seem to go on and on are healthy thing for a party. The problem is that if you involve the membership then you have to factor in the time to produce and send out the ballot packs ..."

    Would Mike also support the Liberal Democrats changing their procedures & removing the right of the membership to elect their leader ? :smile:

    If not, then it seems hardly fair to demand that other parties change their procedure but not your own party :smile:

    Having a say in electing the leader is one of the few rewards for the ordinary party member. Removing it would lead to a further decline in party membership for the larger parties. It'll be bad for democracy in the long-term and would strengthen extremist parties.

    No one cares about members electing party leaders, only when members elect Prime Ministers. Fortunately, for the LDs, there is no such problem :wink:

    (Edited Vik's blockquote to "" instead as it was causing issues when quoting myself)
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 25,994
    edited August 18
    eek said:

    The Daily Star nails it:-


    It's bollocks though. That might be the parliamentary recesses but a PM is on call 24/7 and has to deal with issues wherever they are all year round.
    The media can help people perceive things very differently to real reality.

    Remember you only need to fool some of the people some of the time - and that 13 week holiday alongside 4 day weeks will stick with enough people to have an impact.
    Doeasn't help when the Metro pointedly regards Mr Johnson actually coming to a meeting as headline news, a week or so back.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 7,115

    The Daily Star nails it:-


    It's bollocks though. That might be the parliamentary recesses but a PM is on call 24/7 and has to deal with issues wherever they are all year round.
    Doesn't matter if it's bollocks or not. It feels bad. If you live by simplistic feels, prepare to die by simplistic feels. Truss really needs a good answer to the accusation that she thinks normal British people are lazy, and we haven't heard one yet.

    Besides- Truss should probably be grateful that the Star haven't photshopped her to look like a clown. Yet.

  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 15,157
    Carnyx said:

    Nigelb said:

    vik said:

    I am far from convinced that these prolonged leadership races which seem to go on and on are healthy thing for a party. The problem is that if you involve the membership then you have to factor in the time to produce and send out the ballot packs ...

    Would Mike also support the Liberal Democrats changing their procedures & removing the right of the membership to elect their leader ? :smile:

    If not, then it seems hardly fair to demand that other parties change their procedure but not your own party :smile:

    Having a say in electing the leader is one of the few rewards for the ordinary party member. Removing it would lead to a further decline in party membership for the larger parties. It'll be bad for democracy in the long-term and would strengthen extremist parties.

    Mike’s header didn’t ‘demand’ any such thing.

    But he makes a good point about the inherent problem.
    It would have taken considerably less time to hold a general election to choose a new PM. The current spectacle is a self indulgence on the part of the Conservatives that the rest of the country cannot afford.

    (edit.. you also managed to mess up the block quotes in a single post.
    Now repaired,)
    Who is running the country? Step forward the Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster.

    Cabinet Office Minister Kit Malthouse said options were being considered to help Brits deal with the cash pain.

    He said: “We are putting the Government on war footing, if you like, so that a new prime minister in just a couple of weeks’ time is able to make some quick decisions on where he or she wants to take the country and the economy.”

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/19542056/kit-malthouse-cost-of-living-crisis/
    What's the point of having Raab C. Brexit as deputy PM then?
    I hadn't quite understood the full extent of this, but if you look at the UK, and how the cabinet works, we are completely unreliant on the role of deputy PM.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 31,451
    TOPPING said:

    .

    Scott_xP said:

    One well-placed financial services exec says that Truss is looking to merge Financial Conduct Authority, the Prudential Regulation Authority and the Payments Systems Regulator into a new body as part of “a wider war on technocrats” and civil servants.

    https://www.ft.com/content/af7b6638-c7f5-400b-878d-e56a58bd4151

    The super-rich want no oversight, no restraint. They've quickly filled our rivers and beaches back up with shit once EU rules didn't apply. That's just the beginning.

    I don't always agree with Zoe Williams but her piece today strikes a chord with me:

    '“If there is a class war – and there is – it is important that it should be handled with subtlety and skill,” wrote Maurice Cowling, the influential rightwing historian, in the late 1970s. “It is not freedom that Conservatives want; what they want is the sort of freedom that will maintain existing inequalities or restore lost ones.” The nature of Conservatism has altered very little since, but the class on whose behalf the Tory party fights has changed dramatically: where once it was doctors and lawyers, businessmen, “respectable people”, it is now hedge fund managers and property developers, the filthy, the super, the Croesus rich. If you’re less wealthy than Jacob Rees-Mogg, the party has fought a 12-year war against you, and – newsflash – it won...

    '...the class war wasn’t fought with subtlety and skill, it was fought in a more modern fashion, with misinformation. The argument for austerity was built on complementary, nonsensical narratives: most disabled people were faking it; most people on benefits were too lazy to work; most waste in the benefits system was lost to fraud; a class of the workshy had been created by benefits; the “big society” was good, because it was much nicer to get your neighbour’s help than to have properly funded public services; parents know more about education than local authorities; and so on...

    'With Brexit, at least we were arguing about something real: what happened in relation to Europe mattered, for our prosperity, for our intellectual life, for our rights, for the union, for the climate... In fact, the escapade was there to deliver only one outcome: the destruction of regulation by which workers and citizens protect and assert themselves against the interests of capital. It was just the second wave of the war...

    '...If you look at the level of public debt, the high inflation, the low growth and the tax burden, we’re already in a postwar economy. It was just a different kind of war, a class war masquerading as a kulturkampf, and we lost...'


    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/aug/17/inflation-10-percent-class-war-brexit-cost-of-living-crisis

    The nation is being exploited by the real cosmopolitan elite. They've completely divided and then conquered us. All of us will be, are being, negatively affected. I don't see how you can look at the state of the country and think anything else.
    Maybe you're right. But I suggest you do some research into what the Labour Party is doing about it all.

    David Skelton: The New Snobbery

    TL;DR - Labour has been at the forefront of the war against those in the lower socio-economic groupings.
    It's a big problem that at a certain level, there is no penalty for failure, and little penalty for dishonesty. People who screw up in one job can move on to a lucrative consultancy. Big corporations can screw over their customers, suppliers, debtors etc. with impunity.

    As you imply however, such behaviour is also widespread among the sections of society that people like Zoe Williams admires. There's no penalty for failure, dishonesty etc. in the highest reaches of the public sector, as well as in the highest reaches of the private sector.

    And, quite a lot of the filthy rich are actually on Zoe Williams' side of the argument.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 16,479

    The Daily Star nails it:-


    It's bollocks though. That might be the parliamentary recesses but a PM is on call 24/7 and has to deal with issues wherever they are all year round.
    Don't tell Boris.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 19,636
    Nigelb said:

    This is a very disturbing report in the Ukrainian press, which hopefully will result in action from the Ukraine authorities.

    Suicide missions, abuse, physical threats: International Legion fighters speak out against leadership’s misconduct
    https://kyivindependent.com/investigations/suicide-missions-abuse-physical-threats-international-legion-fighters-speak-out-against-leaderships-misconduct

    Update on the war more generally from a regular pro-Ukrainian blogger (based in Austria) - skip the chat about Zelensky to get a front-by-front analysis.

    https://medium.com/@x_TomCooper_x/ukraine-war-18-august-2022-99fbe48cccb9

    The comment today by a Zelensky adviser that the war has reached deadlock is broadly borne out by this - minor advances for either side here and there and some spectacular individual actions, but basically everyone digging in.

    The Russian position around Kherson and the Ukrainian position in the centre still look fragile enough that this may change, but autumn and soggy ground will bog the war down by the end of September.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 16,479

    Happy Teenage-Girls-Leaping-in-the-Air Day!

    Meanwhile, 13degC here - central heating back on!

    Ah, that will be why there are so many adverts for university clearing.

    Time for my annual "the government should consider letting boys take A-levels" joke.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 35,987

    Nigelb said:

    This is a very disturbing report in the Ukrainian press, which hopefully will result in action from the Ukraine authorities.

    Suicide missions, abuse, physical threats: International Legion fighters speak out against leadership’s misconduct
    https://kyivindependent.com/investigations/suicide-missions-abuse-physical-threats-international-legion-fighters-speak-out-against-leaderships-misconduct

    Update on the war more generally from a regular pro-Ukrainian blogger (based in Austria) - skip the chat about Zelensky to get a front-by-front analysis.

    https://medium.com/@x_TomCooper_x/ukraine-war-18-august-2022-99fbe48cccb9

    The comment today by a Zelensky adviser that the war has reached deadlock is broadly borne out by this - minor advances for either side here and there and some spectacular individual actions, but basically everyone digging in.

    The Russian position around Kherson and the Ukrainian position in the centre still look fragile enough that this may change, but autumn and soggy ground will bog the war down by the end of September.
    Facts on the ground will be tricky to shift before too long.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 71,746

    Nigelb said:

    This is a very disturbing report in the Ukrainian press, which hopefully will result in action from the Ukraine authorities.

    Suicide missions, abuse, physical threats: International Legion fighters speak out against leadership’s misconduct
    https://kyivindependent.com/investigations/suicide-missions-abuse-physical-threats-international-legion-fighters-speak-out-against-leaderships-misconduct

    Update on the war more generally from a regular pro-Ukrainian blogger (based in Austria) - skip the chat about Zelensky to get a front-by-front analysis.

    https://medium.com/@x_TomCooper_x/ukraine-war-18-august-2022-99fbe48cccb9

    The comment today by a Zelensky adviser that the war has reached deadlock is broadly borne out by this - minor advances for either side here and there and some spectacular individual actions, but basically everyone digging in.

    The Russian position around Kherson and the Ukrainian position in the centre still look fragile enough that this may change, but autumn and soggy ground will bog the war down by the end of September.
    I think Russia is inching toward Slavyansk and Ukraine is consolidating west of the Dnipro. But yes, no real movement.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 41,239

    The Daily Star nails it:-


    It's bollocks though. That might be the parliamentary recesses but a PM is on call 24/7 and has to deal with issues wherever they are all year round.
    If that counts as "dealing with issues" then the more holiday she gets, the better...
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 17,823

    The Daily Star nails it:-


    It's bollocks though. That might be the parliamentary recesses but a PM is on call 24/7 and has to deal with issues wherever they are all year round.
    He's WFH! In Greece.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 1,913

    The Daily Star nails it:-


    It's bollocks though. That might be the parliamentary recesses but a PM is on call 24/7 and has to deal with issues wherever they are all year round.
    But she’s not PM yet and so the point stands .
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 53,486

    Oliver Carroll
    @olliecarroll
    ·
    1h
    Ominous. Russia’s defence spox claims Ukraine is planning a “false flag provocation” in Zaporizhzhia (Enerhodar) power station for Aug 19. “Russia will be blamed for the man-made catastrophe,” he warns. In reality, Russia is using the plant as a nuclear shield.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 42,730

    Good morning, everyone.

    F1: Perez can be backed each way to win in Belgium at 26 (with boost) on Ladbrokes. Only Verstappen has more top 2 finishes this year. Not guaranteed at all (six horse race) but his odds are too long...

    Tempting bet.

    For now, I've laid Verstappen at evens.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,344
    Mr. B, those are short odds, but Verstappen's driving very well this year and his team are better at strategy than Ferrari.

    Reliability could be better, though.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 25,994

    Carnyx said:

    Nigelb said:

    vik said:

    I am far from convinced that these prolonged leadership races which seem to go on and on are healthy thing for a party. The problem is that if you involve the membership then you have to factor in the time to produce and send out the ballot packs ...

    Would Mike also support the Liberal Democrats changing their procedures & removing the right of the membership to elect their leader ? :smile:

    If not, then it seems hardly fair to demand that other parties change their procedure but not your own party :smile:

    Having a say in electing the leader is one of the few rewards for the ordinary party member. Removing it would lead to a further decline in party membership for the larger parties. It'll be bad for democracy in the long-term and would strengthen extremist parties.

    Mike’s header didn’t ‘demand’ any such thing.

    But he makes a good point about the inherent problem.
    It would have taken considerably less time to hold a general election to choose a new PM. The current spectacle is a self indulgence on the part of the Conservatives that the rest of the country cannot afford.

    (edit.. you also managed to mess up the block quotes in a single post.
    Now repaired,)
    Who is running the country? Step forward the Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster.

    Cabinet Office Minister Kit Malthouse said options were being considered to help Brits deal with the cash pain.

    He said: “We are putting the Government on war footing, if you like, so that a new prime minister in just a couple of weeks’ time is able to make some quick decisions on where he or she wants to take the country and the economy.”

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/19542056/kit-malthouse-cost-of-living-crisis/
    What's the point of having Raab C. Brexit as deputy PM then?
    I hadn't quite understood the full extent of this, but if you look at the UK, and how the cabinet works, we are completely unreliant on the role of deputy PM.
    Quite; hence the double nature of my comment. It does seem an odd position - if it was just something to keep someone quiet and out of mischief it should be called something else.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 34,333
    Nigelb said:

    TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    This is a very disturbing report in the Ukrainian press, which hopefully will result in action from the Ukraine authorities.

    Suicide missions, abuse, physical threats: International Legion fighters speak out against leadership’s misconduct
    https://kyivindependent.com/investigations/suicide-missions-abuse-physical-threats-international-legion-fighters-speak-out-against-leaderships-misconduct

    Careful. PB is not the place for this kind of cold analytical post which impugns the Ukrainians as engaging in behaviour which is unsurprising in war.
    To make folks happier, then, I'll point out that you're unlikely to see comparable articles in the Russian media.
    Indeed, it speaks well of Ukraine that the press is free to make this sort of criticism.

    I think the Ukranian forces are a very mixed bunch in terms of training and equipment, some very good and others poor. Overall motivation seems good, but as time and experience progress, I think they will become more consistent.

    Soldiers complaining about their officers is of course nothing new or unique.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 52,132
    Jonathan said:

    Big day in the Jonathan household.

    Wife currently in hospital for major surgery. Son just got A level results. Four A*. History, Economics and both Maths. Nice surprise for her to wake up to this afternoon.

    Yeay!
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 30,520
    Yes, apres le deluge le heavy overcast day here in North London where we contemplate, in aptly overcast mood, the prospect of Liz Truss. At a time when multiple chickens are coming home to roost, difficult complex chickens with their roots in our inability to deal with the world as it is rather than as it used to be, or as we wish it would be, we are getting a tawdry Maggie Thatcher tribute act. Given it’s certain now she’ll be PM and almost as certain she’ll be out at the general election the big question is how much damage can she do in the space of 2 years. I’d say quite a lot. But to put a more positive spin on things, which I always like to do if I can, she’s replacing someone who was neglecting to govern at all and was dragging our politics into the gutter. So, net net, it’s an ok trade.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 45,341


    Oliver Carroll
    @olliecarroll
    ·
    1h
    Ominous. Russia’s defence spox claims Ukraine is planning a “false flag provocation” in Zaporizhzhia (Enerhodar) power station for Aug 19. “Russia will be blamed for the man-made catastrophe,” he warns. In reality, Russia is using the plant as a nuclear shield.

    Russia would say that, wouldn't it?

    If they could render much of Ukraine a nuclear wasteland, they could take their (slightly irradiated) troops home and deem it job done.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 7,115
    edited August 18

    Happy Teenage-Girls-Leaping-in-the-Air Day!

    Meanwhile, 13degC here - central heating back on!

    Ah, that will be why there are so many adverts for university clearing.

    Time for my annual "the government should consider letting boys take A-levels" joke.
    Just point out to the boys the fruitiness of the girls doing A Levels. That should get them signed up in no time.
This discussion has been closed.