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Starmer’s set to have a challenging September – politicalbetting.com

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  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 6,506
    HYUFD said:

    CatMan said:

    My wife, who is pro-Blair and very centrist Tory, is massively pro-Truss. Hates Sunak.

    Threatened to leave me if I don't vote for Truss.

    Hmm..

    How will she know?
    She wants to see my ballot paper.

    Honestly, this isn't easy.
    Can't you explain why you disagree and think that Sunak is the better choice? Seems a bit unreasonable so long as your justification is reasonable.

    Still I'm hardly one to be giving advice on relationships.
    You start from the premise that Rishi is an open and shut case.

    I'm on the fence.

    Her view?

    She connects with her more. Likes the fact she's come from a modest background and comprehensive school and worked her way up. Likes the fact she works hard and succeeded. Thinks she knows how it is. Think she has more experience. Likes the fact she's loyal. Admires the fact she's willing to listen and change her mind. Likes her low tax and free market principles - exactly how my wife tends to think. Hates Sunak: thinks he's privileged and narrow-minded and obsessed with monetary balance alone and ideological about it. Said she would vote Lib Dem if he was PM.

    She thinks Liz Truss is the real deal and really likes her. I'm not sure how often this is commented on here but I think she breaks through to female voters more than is recognised.

    Worth noting.
    Truss isn't really from a modest background. Very middle class suburban, daughter of an academic.

    You can be loyal to a fault. And what about putting your loyalty to Britain above loyalty to Johnson?

    Sunak also has low tax/free market principles. Just more pragmatic about it.

    That's about the best I can do!
    Well yes, but Boris was the literal embodiment of the Metropolitan Elite, yet he won an election partly by presenting himself as the opposite of that
    Boris actually spent part of his childhood in rural Somerset
    Like with Roger, I sometimes wonder if you are veering into self parody.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 22,950
    edited August 5
    @Pulpstar source of political betting comedy PredictIt is shutting down

    https://www.predictit.org/platform-announcements

    Well, going into hibernation I suppose.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 17,147

    My wife, who is pro-Blair and very centrist Tory, is massively pro-Truss. Hates Sunak.

    Threatened to leave me if I don't vote for Truss.

    Hmm..

    How will she know?
    She wants to see my ballot paper.

    Honestly, this isn't easy.
    My wife trusts me not to put my pencil in the wrong candidate's box.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,054

    HYUFD said:

    CatMan said:

    My wife, who is pro-Blair and very centrist Tory, is massively pro-Truss. Hates Sunak.

    Threatened to leave me if I don't vote for Truss.

    Hmm..

    How will she know?
    She wants to see my ballot paper.

    Honestly, this isn't easy.
    Can't you explain why you disagree and think that Sunak is the better choice? Seems a bit unreasonable so long as your justification is reasonable.

    Still I'm hardly one to be giving advice on relationships.
    You start from the premise that Rishi is an open and shut case.

    I'm on the fence.

    Her view?

    She connects with her more. Likes the fact she's come from a modest background and comprehensive school and worked her way up. Likes the fact she works hard and succeeded. Thinks she knows how it is. Think she has more experience. Likes the fact she's loyal. Admires the fact she's willing to listen and change her mind. Likes her low tax and free market principles - exactly how my wife tends to think. Hates Sunak: thinks he's privileged and narrow-minded and obsessed with monetary balance alone and ideological about it. Said she would vote Lib Dem if he was PM.

    She thinks Liz Truss is the real deal and really likes her. I'm not sure how often this is commented on here but I think she breaks through to female voters more than is recognised.

    Worth noting.
    Truss isn't really from a modest background. Very middle class suburban, daughter of an academic.

    You can be loyal to a fault. And what about putting your loyalty to Britain above loyalty to Johnson?

    Sunak also has low tax/free market principles. Just more pragmatic about it.

    That's about the best I can do!
    Well yes, but Boris was the literal embodiment of the Metropolitan Elite, yet he won an election partly by presenting himself as the opposite of that
    Boris actually spent part of his childhood in rural Somerset
    I think the point is that Boris spent his entire life hobnobbing with the great and the good of the British establishment, but managed to get himself liked by the lower orders for being a bit of a scallywag and an outsider.
    Yes, appealing to the largest number of people possible, is a good recipe for being elected.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 17,147

    Sandpit said:

    My wife, who is pro-Blair and very centrist Tory, is massively pro-Truss. Hates Sunak.

    Threatened to leave me if I don't vote for Truss.

    Hmm..

    How will she know?
    She wants to see my ballot paper.

    Honestly, this isn't easy.
    Can't you explain why you disagree and think that Sunak is the better choice? Seems a bit unreasonable so long as your justification is reasonable.

    Still I'm hardly one to be giving advice on relationships.
    You start from the premise that Rishi is an open and shut case.

    I'm on the fence.

    Her view?

    She connects with her more. Likes the fact she's come from a modest background and comprehensive school and worked her way up. Likes the fact she works hard and succeeded. Thinks she knows how it is. Think she has more experience. Likes the fact she's loyal. Admires the fact she's willing to listen and change her mind. Likes her low tax and free market principles - exactly how my wife tends to think. Hates Sunak: thinks he's privileged and narrow-minded and obsessed with monetary balance alone and ideological about it. Said she would vote Lib Dem if he was PM.

    She thinks Liz Truss is the real deal and really likes her. I'm not sure how often this is commented on here but I think she breaks through to female voters more than is recognised.

    Worth noting.
    Truss isn't really from a modest background. Very middle class suburban, daughter of an academic.

    You can be loyal to a fault. And what about putting your loyalty to Britain above loyalty to Johnson?

    Sunak also has low tax/free market principles. Just more pragmatic about it.

    That's about the best I can do!
    Compared to the guy who’s so rich he’s forgotten how to put petrol in his car, she’s the working class girl.
    They are both from middle class professional backgrounds. Rishi's parents were immigrants though. Where she may have an edge would be in mixing with less privileged people at her school compared to Winchester.

    Anyway I'm not saying I agree, just trying to provide counter arguments for CR.
    Roundhay was so rough back then. There were even some households who didn't take The Guardian.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 34,333

    Sandpit said:

    My wife, who is pro-Blair and very centrist Tory, is massively pro-Truss. Hates Sunak.

    Threatened to leave me if I don't vote for Truss.

    Hmm..

    How will she know?
    She wants to see my ballot paper.

    Honestly, this isn't easy.
    Can't you explain why you disagree and think that Sunak is the better choice? Seems a bit unreasonable so long as your justification is reasonable.

    Still I'm hardly one to be giving advice on relationships.
    You start from the premise that Rishi is an open and shut case.

    I'm on the fence.

    Her view?

    She connects with her more. Likes the fact she's come from a modest background and comprehensive school and worked her way up. Likes the fact she works hard and succeeded. Thinks she knows how it is. Think she has more experience. Likes the fact she's loyal. Admires the fact she's willing to listen and change her mind. Likes her low tax and free market principles - exactly how my wife tends to think. Hates Sunak: thinks he's privileged and narrow-minded and obsessed with monetary balance alone and ideological about it. Said she would vote Lib Dem if he was PM.

    She thinks Liz Truss is the real deal and really likes her. I'm not sure how often this is commented on here but I think she breaks through to female voters more than is recognised.

    Worth noting.
    Truss isn't really from a modest background. Very middle class suburban, daughter of an academic.

    You can be loyal to a fault. And what about putting your loyalty to Britain above loyalty to Johnson?

    Sunak also has low tax/free market principles. Just more pragmatic about it.

    That's about the best I can do!
    Compared to the guy who’s so rich he’s forgotten how to put petrol in his car, she’s the working class girl.
    @Casino_Royale point about connecting to female voters may turn out to be crucial. Worth keeping an eye on.

    There wasn't a lot in it, with both male and female members favouring Truss, but the men were more keen than the women on Truss.

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/08/03/more-our-conservative-members-poll
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 45,341
    Alistair said:

    @Pulpstar source of political betting comedy PredictIt is shutting down

    https://www.predictit.org/platform-announcements

    Well, going into hibernation I suppose.

    Did they predict it?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 47,122
    Sandpit said:

    @Casino_Royale, whatever you do, don’t start on the Trainspotting soundtrack.

    One of the greatest soundtracks of all time
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 45,341
    Cookie said:

    Left Devon and onto Cornwall, via 1) an appropriately enormous mixed grill in a pub in Tredagillet, called, with puzzling vagary, both the Eliot Arms and the Square and Compass. Food was very good, in a satisfyingly non-gastropubby way; and 2) a little jaunt through the much overlooked Bodmin Moor. Very pleasant on a sunny day - wild ponies, little stone bridges over burbling streams, wide open spaces, that sort of thing. I expect it is gothically bleak in poorer weather but today was lovely.
    And arrived at a holiday house outside Polzeath - a group of thirteen family members all confusingly talking at once all the time. Rather overwhelming for somewhere grew up as an only child with no cousins, but enjoyably like being thrust into the sort of media-concocted family I half suspected didn't really exist in real life.
    Anyway, all this is by way of preamble to posting a picture of the view over the mouth of the Camel at sunset.

    Never look a gift Camel in the mouth.....
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 42,053

    My wife, who is pro-Blair and very centrist Tory, is massively pro-Truss. Hates Sunak.

    Threatened to leave me if I don't vote for Truss.

    Hmm..

    How will she know?
    She wants to see my ballot paper.

    Honestly, this isn't easy.
    My wife trusts me not to put my pencil in the wrong candidate's box.
    The wrong kind of AV idol?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 18,804

    My wife, who is pro-Blair and very centrist Tory, is massively pro-Truss. Hates Sunak.

    Threatened to leave me if I don't vote for Truss.

    Hmm..

    How will she know?
    She wants to see my ballot paper.

    Honestly, this isn't easy.
    Can't you explain why you disagree and think that Sunak is the better choice? Seems a bit unreasonable so long as your justification is reasonable.

    Still I'm hardly one to be giving advice on relationships.
    You start from the premise that Rishi is an open and shut case.

    I'm on the fence.

    Her view?

    She connects with her more. Likes the fact she's come from a modest background and comprehensive school and worked her way up. Likes the fact she works hard and succeeded. Thinks she knows how it is. Think she has more experience. Likes the fact she's loyal. Admires the fact she's willing to listen and change her mind. Likes her low tax and free market principles - exactly how my wife tends to think. Hates Sunak: thinks he's privileged and narrow-minded and obsessed with monetary balance alone and ideological about it. Said she would vote Lib Dem if he was PM.

    She thinks Liz Truss is the real deal and really likes her. I'm not sure how often this is commented on here but I think she breaks through to female voters more than is recognised.

    Worth noting.
    Truss isn't really from a modest background. Very middle class suburban, daughter of an academic.

    You can be loyal to a fault. And what about putting your loyalty to Britain above loyalty to Johnson?

    Sunak also has low tax/free market principles. Just more pragmatic about it.

    That's about the best I can do!
    Middle class suburban is probably the most typical type of background in this country.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 9,513

    My wife, who is pro-Blair and very centrist Tory, is massively pro-Truss. Hates Sunak.

    Threatened to leave me if I don't vote for Truss.

    Hmm..

    How will she know?
    She wants to see my ballot paper.

    Honestly, this isn't easy.
    Can't you explain why you disagree and think that Sunak is the better choice? Seems a bit unreasonable so long as your justification is reasonable.

    Still I'm hardly one to be giving advice on relationships.
    You start from the premise that Rishi is an open and shut case.

    I'm on the fence.

    Her view?

    She connects with her more. Likes the fact she's come from a modest background and comprehensive school and worked her way up. Likes the fact she works hard and succeeded. Thinks she knows how it is. Think she has more experience. Likes the fact she's loyal. Admires the fact she's willing to listen and change her mind. Likes her low tax and free market principles - exactly how my wife tends to think. Hates Sunak: thinks he's privileged and narrow-minded and obsessed with monetary balance alone and ideological about it. Said she would vote Lib Dem if he was PM.

    She thinks Liz Truss is the real deal and really likes her. I'm not sure how often this is commented on here but I think she breaks through to female voters more than is recognised.

    Worth noting.
    Given that you're on the fence I guess you can take some time to talk about it and mull things over. Then you might find she convinces you, or she might come to understand why you disagree.

    If it's any consolation, I don't think your disagreement could be worse than my Dad and step-Mother. She was standing for election as a Liberal Democrat council candidate, and he thought it was hilarious to deliver leaflets for her Labour opponent. She really was not impressed.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 18,804
    edited August 5
    O/T

    "Why must my mobile provider harass me all through my holiday?
    "Nicholas Coleridge" (£)

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-must-my-mobile-provider-harass-me-all-through-my-holiday
  • pingping Posts: 2,659
    edited August 5
    Off topic.

    I noticed, when shopping at Asda ( occasional for me, I usually shop at Aldi) a few things;

    1. Prices up a fair bit. My bill was rather shocking.

    2. They’ve mostly replaced their “roll back” product advertising (where they claim to have cut the price of a thing back to where it used to be) - with “price lock” - where they increase the price and then claim that they won’t raise it in the near future. For Asda’s marketing people to think that is a positive for shoppers is somewhat ridiculous. Evidence Inflation expectations are becoming entrenched, an economist might say.

    3. Their 20p plastic bags have gone from quite good, to really really bad. The checkout lady warned me, but even putting 2 x 4 pint bottles of milk in was enough for it to pathetically break. Forgivable on a free bag, but for 20p a go, Asda’s taking the piss. Someone at head office, or in the supply chain is taking economising to the extreme.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 16,479

    .

    Betfair next prime minister
    1.11 Liz Truss 90%
    9.4 Rishi Sunak 11%

    Next Conservative leader
    1.11 Liz Truss 90%
    10 Rishi Sunak 10%

    As hustings are due to start

    Betfair next prime minister
    1.11 Liz Truss 90%
    9.6 Rishi Sunak 10%

    Next Conservative leader
    1.11 Liz Truss 90%
    9.4 Rishi Sunak 11%
    To pinch Liz Truss's joke, that's two hours of my life I won't get back. No eruptions on Betfair either.

    Betfair next prime minister
    1.12 Liz Truss 89%
    9.4 Rishi Sunak 11%

    Next Conservative leader
    1.11 Liz Truss 90%
    9.4 Rishi Sunak 11%
    Rishi out to 10 on Betfair

    Betfair next prime minister
    1.11 Liz Truss 90%
    9.8 Rishi Sunak 10%

    Next Conservative leader
    1.11 Liz Truss 90%
    10 Rishi Sunak 10%
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 16,226
    Alistair said:

    @Pulpstar source of political betting comedy PredictIt is shutting down

    https://www.predictit.org/platform-announcements

    Well, going into hibernation I suppose.

    On the Starspangledgamblers podcast they reckon they got nobbled by a competitor with better CFTC connections that's trying to get into political markets
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 16,479
    Liz Truss turns her fire on Bank chief over recession warnings

    Liz Truss accused the Bank of England of “talking Britain into a recession”, as she stepped up her war of words with Andrew Bailey, the institution’s governor, last night.

    The foreign secretary dismissed the bank’s warning that the UK would slip into negative growth at the end of this year amid the worst squeeze on living standards for more than 60 years.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/liz-truss-turns-her-fire-on-bank-chief-over-recession-warnings-nzcr97hk2 (£££)
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 16,479
    Winter of woe means long waits for patients
    Only six in ten will be seen within four hours

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/winter-of-woe-means-long-waits-for-patients-gbx7m5dwx (£££)
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 16,226
    Fun thread on prediction market shenanigans, mostly involving Polymarket. For instance some enterprising punter faked an entire port worker's strike:
    https://twitter.com/Domahhhh/status/1555575884475662336
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 17,823

    Alex Jones mobile phone data is heading to Jan 6th investigations.

    The momentary fear in Jones' eyes when the Plaintiff's Lawyer told him the bad news that his texts for the last two years had been received from the Defendant's Attorney was a joy to behold. One could tell he was counting back to see if January 6th still remained in the timeline, and he realised it did!
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 16,479
    NHS 111 suffers major cyber attack as staff resort to ‘pens and paper’
    Security services investigate as hackers feared to be linked to hostile state shut down crucial system, with widespread disruption predicted

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/08/05/nhs-111-suffers-cyber-attack-staff-resorting-pens-paper/ (£££)
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 16,479
    edited August 6

    Fun thread on prediction market shenanigans, mostly involving Polymarket. For instance some enterprising punter faked an entire port worker's strike:
    https://twitter.com/Domahhhh/status/1555575884475662336

    Like this one?

    Felixstowe port strike raises fears of empty shop shelves
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/felixstowe-port-strike-raises-fears-of-empty-shop-shelves-763g395wh (£££)
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 16,479

    .

    Betfair next prime minister
    1.11 Liz Truss 90%
    9.4 Rishi Sunak 11%

    Next Conservative leader
    1.11 Liz Truss 90%
    10 Rishi Sunak 10%

    As hustings are due to start

    Betfair next prime minister
    1.11 Liz Truss 90%
    9.6 Rishi Sunak 10%

    Next Conservative leader
    1.11 Liz Truss 90%
    9.4 Rishi Sunak 11%
    To pinch Liz Truss's joke, that's two hours of my life I won't get back. No eruptions on Betfair either.

    Betfair next prime minister
    1.12 Liz Truss 89%
    9.4 Rishi Sunak 11%

    Next Conservative leader
    1.11 Liz Truss 90%
    9.4 Rishi Sunak 11%
    Rishi out to 10 on Betfair

    Betfair next prime minister
    1.11 Liz Truss 90%
    9.8 Rishi Sunak 10%

    Next Conservative leader
    1.11 Liz Truss 90%
    10 Rishi Sunak 10%
    9/1 Rishi; 1/9 Liz

    Betfair next prime minister
    1.11 Liz Truss 90%
    10 Rishi Sunak 10%

    Next Conservative leader
    1.11 Liz Truss 90%
    10 Rishi Sunak 10%
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 42,730
    Interesting thread.
    I just spoke with a senior employee from Amnesty International.

    Their sum-up: “It’s a dark moment for the movement, there’s no other way to put it.”

    Also: "We threw a party the Russian state was eager to attend for its own political purposes.”

    More in this (long) thread

    https://mobile.twitter.com/ichbinilya/status/1555646138602201092
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 46,536
    That was a bad idea.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 4,668
    Two candidates, one ex Lib Dem, the other a blue blooded ex Tory Chancellor.

    One wants to lower the tax burden, which is at a 70-year high. And publicly questions the Bank’s record at ensuring sound money, which has increased its balance sheet by almost a trillion pounds with inflation now at double digits.

    The other thinks taxes need to go up even further and has nothing much to say about supply side reform or monetary policy.

    It’s really not a hard choice is it.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 9,641
    Andy_JS said:

    My wife, who is pro-Blair and very centrist Tory, is massively pro-Truss. Hates Sunak.

    Threatened to leave me if I don't vote for Truss.

    Hmm..

    How will she know?
    She wants to see my ballot paper.

    Honestly, this isn't easy.
    Can't you explain why you disagree and think that Sunak is the better choice? Seems a bit unreasonable so long as your justification is reasonable.

    Still I'm hardly one to be giving advice on relationships.
    You start from the premise that Rishi is an open and shut case.

    I'm on the fence.

    Her view?

    She connects with her more. Likes the fact she's come from a modest background and comprehensive school and worked her way up. Likes the fact she works hard and succeeded. Thinks she knows how it is. Think she has more experience. Likes the fact she's loyal. Admires the fact she's willing to listen and change her mind. Likes her low tax and free market principles - exactly how my wife tends to think. Hates Sunak: thinks he's privileged and narrow-minded and obsessed with monetary balance alone and ideological about it. Said she would vote Lib Dem if he was PM.

    She thinks Liz Truss is the real deal and really likes her. I'm not sure how often this is commented on here but I think she breaks through to female voters more than is recognised.

    Worth noting.
    Truss isn't really from a modest background. Very middle class suburban, daughter of an academic.

    You can be loyal to a fault. And what about putting your loyalty to Britain above loyalty to Johnson?

    Sunak also has low tax/free market principles. Just more pragmatic about it.

    That's about the best I can do!
    Middle class suburban is probably the most typical type of background in this country.
    I think the specifics of Truss's background are quite niche. I say this because the details - left wing parents, moving between Scotland and the North of England, comprehensive school then Oxbridge - are scarily similar to my own, and it's often felt quite a lonely journey. She's even the same age as me! What I don't understand is how that upbringing made her become a Thatcherite Tory.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 24,543

    What I don't understand is how that upbringing made her become a Thatcherite Tory.

    It didn't.

    It made her a Liberal.

    Ambition did the rest.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 31,221
    Nigelb said:

    Interesting thread.
    I just spoke with a senior employee from Amnesty International.

    Their sum-up: “It’s a dark moment for the movement, there’s no other way to put it.”

    Also: "We threw a party the Russian state was eager to attend for its own political purposes.”

    More in this (long) thread

    https://mobile.twitter.com/ichbinilya/status/1555646138602201092

    Agnes Callamard's tweeted response to the controversy had been utterly tone-death. It sounds as though the initial report does not match Amnesty's usual standards; her handling of the aftermath has just inflamed the situation.

    Callamard should go for those tweets alone.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 42,730
    moonshine said:

    Two candidates, one ex Lib Dem, the other a blue blooded ex Tory Chancellor.

    One wants to lower the tax burden, which is at a 70-year high. And publicly questions the Bank’s record at ensuring sound money, which has increased its balance sheet by almost a trillion pounds with inflation now at double digits…

    …and effectively proposes borrowing more money to fund tax cuts.

  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 17,823
    moonshine said:

    Two candidates, one ex Lib Dem, the other a blue blooded ex Tory Chancellor.

    One wants to lower the tax burden, which is at a 70-year high. And publicly questions the Bank’s record at ensuring sound money, which has increased its balance sheet by almost a trillion pounds with inflation now at double digits.

    The other thinks taxes need to go up even further and has nothing much to say about supply side reform or monetary policy.

    It’s really not a hard choice is it.

    Yeah, fantasy trumps fact every time.
  • JonWCJonWC Posts: 282
    IanB2 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    My wife, who is pro-Blair and very centrist Tory, is massively pro-Truss. Hates Sunak.

    Threatened to leave me if I don't vote for Truss.

    Hmm..

    How will she know?
    She wants to see my ballot paper.

    Honestly, this isn't easy.
    Can't you explain why you disagree and think that Sunak is the better choice? Seems a bit unreasonable so long as your justification is reasonable.

    Still I'm hardly one to be giving advice on relationships.
    You start from the premise that Rishi is an open and shut case.

    I'm on the fence.

    Her view?

    She connects with her more. Likes the fact she's come from a modest background and comprehensive school and worked her way up. Likes the fact she works hard and succeeded. Thinks she knows how it is. Think she has more experience. Likes the fact she's loyal. Admires the fact she's willing to listen and change her mind. Likes her low tax and free market principles - exactly how my wife tends to think. Hates Sunak: thinks he's privileged and narrow-minded and obsessed with monetary balance alone and ideological about it. Said she would vote Lib Dem if he was PM.

    She thinks Liz Truss is the real deal and really likes her. I'm not sure how often this is commented on here but I think she breaks through to female voters more than is recognised.

    Worth noting.
    Truss isn't really from a modest background. Very middle class suburban, daughter of an academic.

    You can be loyal to a fault. And what about putting your loyalty to Britain above loyalty to Johnson?

    Sunak also has low tax/free market principles. Just more pragmatic about it.

    That's about the best I can do!
    Middle class suburban is probably the most typical type of background in this country.
    I think the specifics of Truss's background are quite niche. I say this because the details - left wing parents, moving between Scotland and the North of England, comprehensive school then Oxbridge - are scarily similar to my own, and it's often felt quite a lonely journey. She's even the same age as me! What I don't understand is how that upbringing made her become a Thatcherite Tory.
    I was a young LibDem from Oxbridge, active in the party and working to win a council ward, not that many years before Truss was around. I remember several conversations with ambitious parliamentary candidates in their 30s or 40s who had made significant personal, career and financial sacrifices to try and achieve their dream of getting into Parliament, were putting in huge amounts of work to try to win their seats Ashdown-style, and who mostly went on to fail, in some cases by frustratingly narrow margins, in others with good but distant second places as the only monument to their years of campaigning and commitment.

    Now and again names of eager young LibDem activists that I remember from that period crop up in the news, who didn’t fail or sacrifice their careers but who have remarkably got on in politics - Adonis, Roger Liddle, Leighton Andrews, now Truss.

    The answer as to why Truss decided becoming a Thatcherite Tory was a less difficult choice than thirty years of leaflet delivery in order to become vice-chair of her council’s planning committee must be in there somewhere.
    IanB2 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    My wife, who is pro-Blair and very centrist Tory, is massively pro-Truss. Hates Sunak.

    Threatened to leave me if I don't vote for Truss.

    Hmm..

    How will she know?
    She wants to see my ballot paper.

    Honestly, this isn't easy.
    Can't you explain why you disagree and think that Sunak is the better choice? Seems a bit unreasonable so long as your justification is reasonable.

    Still I'm hardly one to be giving advice on relationships.
    You start from the premise that Rishi is an open and shut case.

    I'm on the fence.

    Her view?

    She connects with her more. Likes the fact she's come from a modest background and comprehensive school and worked her way up. Likes the fact she works hard and succeeded. Thinks she knows how it is. Think she has more experience. Likes the fact she's loyal. Admires the fact she's willing to listen and change her mind. Likes her low tax and free market principles - exactly how my wife tends to think. Hates Sunak: thinks he's privileged and narrow-minded and obsessed with monetary balance alone and ideological about it. Said she would vote Lib Dem if he was PM.

    She thinks Liz Truss is the real deal and really likes her. I'm not sure how often this is commented on here but I think she breaks through to female voters more than is recognised.

    Worth noting.
    Truss isn't really from a modest background. Very middle class suburban, daughter of an academic.

    You can be loyal to a fault. And what about putting your loyalty to Britain above loyalty to Johnson?

    Sunak also has low tax/free market principles. Just more pragmatic about it.

    That's about the best I can do!
    Middle class suburban is probably the most typical type of background in this country.
    I think the specifics of Truss's background are quite niche. I say this because the details - left wing parents, moving between Scotland and the North of England, comprehensive school then Oxbridge - are scarily similar to my own, and it's often felt quite a lonely journey. She's even the same age as me! What I don't understand is how that upbringing made her become a Thatcherite Tory.
    I was a young LibDem from Oxbridge, active in the party and working to win a council ward, not that many years before Truss was around. I remember several conversations with ambitious parliamentary candidates in their 30s or 40s who had made significant personal, career and financial sacrifices to try and achieve their dream of getting into Parliament, were putting in huge amounts of work to try to win their seats Ashdown-style, and who mostly went on to fail, in some cases by frustratingly narrow margins, in others with good but distant second places as the only monument to their years of campaigning and commitment.

    Now and again names of eager young LibDem activists that I remember from that period crop up in the news, who didn’t fail or sacrifice their careers but who have remarkably got on in politics - Adonis, Roger Liddle, Leighton Andrews, now Truss.

    The answer as to why Truss decided becoming a Thatcherite Tory was a less difficult choice than thirty years of leaflet delivery in order to become vice-chair of her council’s planning committee must be in there somewhere.
    Same here, though I remained a LibDem for 28 years until utter dismay drove me out.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 52,132
    IanB2 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    My wife, who is pro-Blair and very centrist Tory, is massively pro-Truss. Hates Sunak.

    Threatened to leave me if I don't vote for Truss.

    Hmm..

    How will she know?
    She wants to see my ballot paper.

    Honestly, this isn't easy.
    Can't you explain why you disagree and think that Sunak is the better choice? Seems a bit unreasonable so long as your justification is reasonable.

    Still I'm hardly one to be giving advice on relationships.
    You start from the premise that Rishi is an open and shut case.

    I'm on the fence.

    Her view?

    She connects with her more. Likes the fact she's come from a modest background and comprehensive school and worked her way up. Likes the fact she works hard and succeeded. Thinks she knows how it is. Think she has more experience. Likes the fact she's loyal. Admires the fact she's willing to listen and change her mind. Likes her low tax and free market principles - exactly how my wife tends to think. Hates Sunak: thinks he's privileged and narrow-minded and obsessed with monetary balance alone and ideological about it. Said she would vote Lib Dem if he was PM.

    She thinks Liz Truss is the real deal and really likes her. I'm not sure how often this is commented on here but I think she breaks through to female voters more than is recognised.

    Worth noting.
    Truss isn't really from a modest background. Very middle class suburban, daughter of an academic.

    You can be loyal to a fault. And what about putting your loyalty to Britain above loyalty to Johnson?

    Sunak also has low tax/free market principles. Just more pragmatic about it.

    That's about the best I can do!
    Middle class suburban is probably the most typical type of background in this country.
    I think the specifics of Truss's background are quite niche. I say this because the details - left wing parents, moving between Scotland and the North of England, comprehensive school then Oxbridge - are scarily similar to my own, and it's often felt quite a lonely journey. She's even the same age as me! What I don't understand is how that upbringing made her become a Thatcherite Tory.
    I was a young LibDem from Oxbridge, active in the party and working to win a council ward, not that many years before Truss was around. I remember several conversations with ambitious parliamentary candidates in their 30s or 40s who had made significant personal, career and financial sacrifices to try and achieve their dream of getting into Parliament, were putting in huge amounts of work to try to win their seats Ashdown-style, and who mostly went on to fail, in some cases by frustratingly narrow margins, in others with good but distant second places as the only monument to their years of campaigning and commitment.

    Now and again names of eager young LibDem activists that I remember from that period crop up in the news, who didn’t fail or sacrifice their careers but who have remarkably got on in politics - Adonis, Roger Liddle, Leighton Andrews, now Truss.

    The answer as to why Truss decided becoming a Thatcherite Tory was a less difficult choice than thirty years of leaflet delivery in order to become vice-chair of her council’s planning committee must be in there somewhere.
    I am genuinely surprised to learn Leighton Andrews was a Liberal. He always struck me as the worst sort of Valleys Labour politician - stupid, greedy, arrogant, utterly self-centred and far too fond of the sound of his own thoroughly unpleasant voice.

    But then, the person who vied with him for the title of ‘Vilest Member of Welsh Labour’, Alun Davies, was ex-Plaid Cymru.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 42,730

    Nigelb said:

    Interesting thread.
    I just spoke with a senior employee from Amnesty International.

    Their sum-up: “It’s a dark moment for the movement, there’s no other way to put it.”

    Also: "We threw a party the Russian state was eager to attend for its own political purposes.”

    More in this (long) thread

    https://mobile.twitter.com/ichbinilya/status/1555646138602201092

    Agnes Callamard's tweeted response to the controversy had been utterly tone-death. It sounds as though the initial report does not match Amnesty's usual standards; her handling of the aftermath has just inflamed the situation.

    Callamard should go for those tweets alone.
    This thread provides a well though through condemnation of Amnesty’s report.
    It notes that Amnesty does not have the military expertise or tactical knowledge to draw the conclusions it has, and worse, that the report plays into the Russian narrative of the war.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/UmlandAndreas/status/1555460146326822912
    @Amnesty ‘s critique of the behavior of Ukraine's military is inapt for one or both of the following two reasons:
    It can (a) be a critique of tactical decisions taken on the spot by Ukrainian army officers. However, @Amnesty is not a military agency or think tank…
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 42,730
    IanB2 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    My wife, who is pro-Blair and very centrist Tory, is massively pro-Truss. Hates Sunak.

    Threatened to leave me if I don't vote for Truss.

    Hmm..

    How will she know?
    She wants to see my ballot paper.

    Honestly, this isn't easy.
    Can't you explain why you disagree and think that Sunak is the better choice? Seems a bit unreasonable so long as your justification is reasonable.

    Still I'm hardly one to be giving advice on relationships.
    You start from the premise that Rishi is an open and shut case.

    I'm on the fence.

    Her view?

    She connects with her more. Likes the fact she's come from a modest background and comprehensive school and worked her way up. Likes the fact she works hard and succeeded. Thinks she knows how it is. Think she has more experience. Likes the fact she's loyal. Admires the fact she's willing to listen and change her mind. Likes her low tax and free market principles - exactly how my wife tends to think. Hates Sunak: thinks he's privileged and narrow-minded and obsessed with monetary balance alone and ideological about it. Said she would vote Lib Dem if he was PM.

    She thinks Liz Truss is the real deal and really likes her. I'm not sure how often this is commented on here but I think she breaks through to female voters more than is recognised.

    Worth noting.
    Truss isn't really from a modest background. Very middle class suburban, daughter of an academic.

    You can be loyal to a fault. And what about putting your loyalty to Britain above loyalty to Johnson?

    Sunak also has low tax/free market principles. Just more pragmatic about it.

    That's about the best I can do!
    Middle class suburban is probably the most typical type of background in this country.
    I think the specifics of Truss's background are quite niche. I say this because the details - left wing parents, moving between Scotland and the North of England, comprehensive school then Oxbridge - are scarily similar to my own, and it's often felt quite a lonely journey. She's even the same age as me! What I don't understand is how that upbringing made her become a Thatcherite Tory.
    I was a young LibDem from Oxbridge, active in the party and working to win a council ward, not that many years before Truss was around. I remember several conversations with ambitious parliamentary candidates in their 30s or 40s who had made significant personal, career and financial sacrifices to try and achieve their dream of getting into Parliament, were putting in huge amounts of work to try to win their seats Ashdown-style, and who mostly went on to fail, in some cases by frustratingly narrow margins, in others with good but distant second places as the only monument to their years of campaigning and commitment.

    Now and again names of eager young LibDem activists that I remember from that period crop up in the news, who didn’t fail or sacrifice their careers but who have remarkably managed to get on in politics - Adonis, Roger Liddle, Leighton Andrews, now Truss.

    The answer as to why Truss decided becoming a Thatcherite Tory was a less difficult choice than thirty years of leaflet delivery in order to become vice-chair of her council’s planning committee must be in there somewhere.
    You provide an excellent argument for PR.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 4,668
    Nigelb said:

    moonshine said:

    Two candidates, one ex Lib Dem, the other a blue blooded ex Tory Chancellor.

    One wants to lower the tax burden, which is at a 70-year high. And publicly questions the Bank’s record at ensuring sound money, which has increased its balance sheet by almost a trillion pounds with inflation now at double digits…

    …and effectively proposes borrowing more money to fund tax cuts.

    One candidate wants to borrow to take up the slack during a recession. The other has nothing to say other than they want to run a balanced budget into a downturn.

    I really wondered if Rishi learnt anything at all from his elite education and city career.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 31,221
    Totally random off-topic post, but I know there are some golf fans on here:

    https://twitter.com/its_jessi_grace/status/1555285129743982595
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 34,333
    IanB2 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    My wife, who is pro-Blair and very centrist Tory, is massively pro-Truss. Hates Sunak.

    Threatened to leave me if I don't vote for Truss.

    Hmm..

    How will she know?
    She wants to see my ballot paper.

    Honestly, this isn't easy.
    Can't you explain why you disagree and think that Sunak is the better choice? Seems a bit unreasonable so long as your justification is reasonable.

    Still I'm hardly one to be giving advice on relationships.
    You start from the premise that Rishi is an open and shut case.

    I'm on the fence.

    Her view?

    She connects with her more. Likes the fact she's come from a modest background and comprehensive school and worked her way up. Likes the fact she works hard and succeeded. Thinks she knows how it is. Think she has more experience. Likes the fact she's loyal. Admires the fact she's willing to listen and change her mind. Likes her low tax and free market principles - exactly how my wife tends to think. Hates Sunak: thinks he's privileged and narrow-minded and obsessed with monetary balance alone and ideological about it. Said she would vote Lib Dem if he was PM.

    She thinks Liz Truss is the real deal and really likes her. I'm not sure how often this is commented on here but I think she breaks through to female voters more than is recognised.

    Worth noting.
    Truss isn't really from a modest background. Very middle class suburban, daughter of an academic.

    You can be loyal to a fault. And what about putting your loyalty to Britain above loyalty to Johnson?

    Sunak also has low tax/free market principles. Just more pragmatic about it.

    That's about the best I can do!
    Middle class suburban is probably the most typical type of background in this country.
    I think the specifics of Truss's background are quite niche. I say this because the details - left wing parents, moving between Scotland and the North of England, comprehensive school then Oxbridge - are scarily similar to my own, and it's often felt quite a lonely journey. She's even the same age as me! What I don't understand is how that upbringing made her become a Thatcherite Tory.
    I was a young LibDem from Oxbridge, active in the party and working to win a council ward, not that many years before Truss was around. I remember several conversations with ambitious parliamentary candidates in their 30s or 40s who had made significant personal, career and financial sacrifices to try and achieve their dream of getting into Parliament, were putting in huge amounts of work to try to win their seats Ashdown-style, and who mostly went on to fail, in some cases by frustratingly narrow margins, in others with good but distant second places as the only monument to their years of campaigning and commitment.

    Now and again names of eager young LibDem activists that I remember from that period crop up in the news, who didn’t fail or sacrifice their careers but who have remarkably got on in politics - Adonis, Roger Liddle, Leighton Andrews, now Truss.

    The answer as to why Truss decided becoming a Thatcherite Tory was a less difficult choice than thirty years of leaflet delivery in order to become vice-chair of her council’s planning committee must be in there somewhere.
    Political ambition was certainly part of that change from Lib Dem to Conservative, as was shedding her youthful Republicanism, and more recently her pro-EU beliefs. She has shifted politically over the years too, and would not be comfortable in the current Lib Dems. She is more a Peelite Conservative, ripping up the Corn Laws than a traditional Tory.

    A perceptive article here in the recent Atlantic.

    https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2022/08/tory-leadership-contest-thatcher-truss-sunak/671014/?utm_source=copy-link&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=share
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 52,132
    edited August 6

    (wife's not up yet)

    I went for Rishi, with zero enthusiasm, in a secret online vote this morning.

    Liz's answers on balancing the books (none, it seems) and her solution of cutting corporation taxes to help people with utterly crippling energy bills this Winter (and seemingly nothing else) swung it for me.

    Maybe she genuinely does think like JRM

    That’s one hell of an assumption about JRM!

    PS - the overwhelming likelihood is both of them would lead you to defeat. It is 170 years since a party was the largest at five elections in a row, and the Tories give every impression of being on their way out.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 42,730
    edited August 6
    moonshine said:

    Nigelb said:

    moonshine said:

    Two candidates, one ex Lib Dem, the other a blue blooded ex Tory Chancellor.

    One wants to lower the tax burden, which is at a 70-year high. And publicly questions the Bank’s record at ensuring sound money, which has increased its balance sheet by almost a trillion pounds with inflation now at double digits…

    …and effectively proposes borrowing more money to fund tax cuts.

    One candidate wants to borrow to take up the slack during a recession…
    Which is a defensible position.
    But renders her critique of the Bank self serving nonsense.

    Also financing tax cuts through borrowing is a terribly inefficient way to “take up the slack”.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 52,132
    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    My wife, who is pro-Blair and very centrist Tory, is massively pro-Truss. Hates Sunak.

    Threatened to leave me if I don't vote for Truss.

    Hmm..

    How will she know?
    She wants to see my ballot paper.

    Honestly, this isn't easy.
    Can't you explain why you disagree and think that Sunak is the better choice? Seems a bit unreasonable so long as your justification is reasonable.

    Still I'm hardly one to be giving advice on relationships.
    You start from the premise that Rishi is an open and shut case.

    I'm on the fence.

    Her view?

    She connects with her more. Likes the fact she's come from a modest background and comprehensive school and worked her way up. Likes the fact she works hard and succeeded. Thinks she knows how it is. Think she has more experience. Likes the fact she's loyal. Admires the fact she's willing to listen and change her mind. Likes her low tax and free market principles - exactly how my wife tends to think. Hates Sunak: thinks he's privileged and narrow-minded and obsessed with monetary balance alone and ideological about it. Said she would vote Lib Dem if he was PM.

    She thinks Liz Truss is the real deal and really likes her. I'm not sure how often this is commented on here but I think she breaks through to female voters more than is recognised.

    Worth noting.
    Truss isn't really from a modest background. Very middle class suburban, daughter of an academic.

    You can be loyal to a fault. And what about putting your loyalty to Britain above loyalty to Johnson?

    Sunak also has low tax/free market principles. Just more pragmatic about it.

    That's about the best I can do!
    Middle class suburban is probably the most typical type of background in this country.
    I think the specifics of Truss's background are quite niche. I say this because the details - left wing parents, moving between Scotland and the North of England, comprehensive school then Oxbridge - are scarily similar to my own, and it's often felt quite a lonely journey. She's even the same age as me! What I don't understand is how that upbringing made her become a Thatcherite Tory.
    I was a young LibDem from Oxbridge, active in the party and working to win a council ward, not that many years before Truss was around. I remember several conversations with ambitious parliamentary candidates in their 30s or 40s who had made significant personal, career and financial sacrifices to try and achieve their dream of getting into Parliament, were putting in huge amounts of work to try to win their seats Ashdown-style, and who mostly went on to fail, in some cases by frustratingly narrow margins, in others with good but distant second places as the only monument to their years of campaigning and commitment.

    Now and again names of eager young LibDem activists that I remember from that period crop up in the news, who didn’t fail or sacrifice their careers but who have remarkably got on in politics - Adonis, Roger Liddle, Leighton Andrews, now Truss.

    The answer as to why Truss decided becoming a Thatcherite Tory was a less difficult choice than thirty years of leaflet delivery in order to become vice-chair of her council’s planning committee must be in there somewhere.
    I am genuinely surprised to learn Leighton Andrews was a Liberal. He always struck me as the worst sort of Valleys Labour politician - stupid, greedy, arrogant, utterly self-centred and far too fond of the sound of his own thoroughly unpleasant voice.

    But then, the person who vied with him for the title of ‘Vilest Member of Welsh Labour’, Alun Davies, was ex-Plaid Cymru.
    He was a radical young liberal, Conference favourite and quite the darling of the left of the party in his day. Then, like so many others, he became keener on advancement than principles.

    An under-appreciated downside of our voting system is that it denudes the smaller parties of people with ambition and talent - if with the compensation that those who remain are the more principled and committed - and feeds the larger parties with people whose careers come first, and who have simply picked a side in order to join the game.
    No wonder he fitted so well with Valleys Labour :smile:

    I would hardly describe him as a ‘talent’ though. He was like a shorter, fatter version of Jacob Rees-Mogg running around everywhere trying to do by diktat things that far exceeded his powers.

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 41,239
    edited August 6
    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    My wife, who is pro-Blair and very centrist Tory, is massively pro-Truss. Hates Sunak.

    Threatened to leave me if I don't vote for Truss.

    Hmm..

    How will she know?
    She wants to see my ballot paper.

    Honestly, this isn't easy.
    Can't you explain why you disagree and think that Sunak is the better choice? Seems a bit unreasonable so long as your justification is reasonable.

    Still I'm hardly one to be giving advice on relationships.
    You start from the premise that Rishi is an open and shut case.

    I'm on the fence.

    Her view?

    She connects with her more. Likes the fact she's come from a modest background and comprehensive school and worked her way up. Likes the fact she works hard and succeeded. Thinks she knows how it is. Think she has more experience. Likes the fact she's loyal. Admires the fact she's willing to listen and change her mind. Likes her low tax and free market principles - exactly how my wife tends to think. Hates Sunak: thinks he's privileged and narrow-minded and obsessed with monetary balance alone and ideological about it. Said she would vote Lib Dem if he was PM.

    She thinks Liz Truss is the real deal and really likes her. I'm not sure how often this is commented on here but I think she breaks through to female voters more than is recognised.

    Worth noting.
    Truss isn't really from a modest background. Very middle class suburban, daughter of an academic.

    You can be loyal to a fault. And what about putting your loyalty to Britain above loyalty to Johnson?

    Sunak also has low tax/free market principles. Just more pragmatic about it.

    That's about the best I can do!
    Middle class suburban is probably the most typical type of background in this country.
    I think the specifics of Truss's background are quite niche. I say this because the details - left wing parents, moving between Scotland and the North of England, comprehensive school then Oxbridge - are scarily similar to my own, and it's often felt quite a lonely journey. She's even the same age as me! What I don't understand is how that upbringing made her become a Thatcherite Tory.
    I was a young LibDem from Oxbridge, active in the party and working to win a council ward, not that many years before Truss was around. I remember several conversations with ambitious parliamentary candidates in their 30s or 40s who had made significant personal, career and financial sacrifices to try and achieve their dream of getting into Parliament, were putting in huge amounts of work to try to win their seats Ashdown-style, and who mostly went on to fail, in some cases by frustratingly narrow margins, in others with good but distant second places as the only monument to their years of campaigning and commitment.

    Now and again names of eager young LibDem activists that I remember from that period crop up in the news, who didn’t fail or sacrifice their careers but who have remarkably got on in politics - Adonis, Roger Liddle, Leighton Andrews, now Truss.

    The answer as to why Truss decided becoming a Thatcherite Tory was a less difficult choice than thirty years of leaflet delivery in order to become vice-chair of her council’s planning committee must be in there somewhere.
    Political ambition was certainly part of that change from Lib Dem to Conservative, as was shedding her youthful Republicanism, and more recently her pro-EU beliefs. She has shifted politically over the years too, and would not be comfortable in the current Lib Dems. She is more a Peelite Conservative, ripping up the Corn Laws than a traditional Tory.

    A perceptive article here in the recent Atlantic.

    https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2022/08/tory-leadership-contest-thatcher-truss-sunak/671014/?utm_source=copy-link&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=share
    Yes, although you are pinning beliefs on people who probably don’t have any, or at least don’t have any without a price tag on them (and if the rumours about Truss’s private life have any truth in them, she may already be expert in being one thing in private and another in public? ;) )

    Plenty of people make careers out of being hired to argue someone else’s case, regardless of whether they believe it or not. Lawyers, I believe they are called? It’s no surprise that many of them end up in politics.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 42,730
    Head of Amnesty’s Ukraine branch resigns in protest.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/olex_scherba/status/1555628616741969923
    Oksana Pokalchuk, the head of Amnesty International Ukraine to resign over disagreements with @amnesty ‘s leadership. “If you don’t live in a country, that’s being torn apart, you’ll never understand what it means, to blame the army of its defenders”
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 37,175
    You can, of course, build a political strategy centred on lies and delusions. But you cannot run a successful economy on the back of them. This is the problem Liz Truss faces. The real world is unforgiving. And it’s fast approaching.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 15,157
    Foxy said:

    moonshine said:

    Nigelb said:

    moonshine said:

    Two candidates, one ex Lib Dem, the other a blue blooded ex Tory Chancellor.

    One wants to lower the tax burden, which is at a 70-year high. And publicly questions the Bank’s record at ensuring sound money, which has increased its balance sheet by almost a trillion pounds with inflation now at double digits…

    …and effectively proposes borrowing more money to fund tax cuts.

    One candidate wants to borrow to take up the slack during a recession. The other has nothing to say other than they want to run a balanced budget into a downturn.

    I really wondered if Rishi learnt anything at all from his elite education and city career.
    It hinges very much whether one believes recession or inflation is the bigger threat at present.

    I think this is a rare example of something Truss has right, though she is not planning to spend her borrowing well, and tax cuts are of the wrong taxes.

    I think that the cause of current inflation is to do with external commodity costs, not over consumption or wage rises. As such it will be shortlived, and policy should be directed at economic support rather than inflation, at least until the spring of 2023.

    The risk of suppressing demand is one of greatly adding to people's misery at a time when energy prices have already severely squeezed discretionary spending. The recession may well be needlessly deep on what is already a fragile economic situation.

    Normally I am as dry as dust on government borrowing, but the next 6 months or so are a legitimate exception.
    I agree although right is generous. Truss would be calling for tax cuts in a leadership contest whether taxes were 45% or 35% of GDP, whether we were in recession or not, an era of high inflation or not. She is calling for tax cuts because it is what people want to hear rather than an analysis of taxes and the economy that she has got right.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 42,730
    Ukraine’s military destroys 6 ammunition depots in southern Ukraine.

    Operational Command “South” said it killed 79 Russian troops and destroyed four tanks, two howitzers, an artillery installation, a radar station, and 22 armored and military vehicles on Aug. 5.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1555756841828769792
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 24,543

    You can, of course, build a political strategy centred on lies and delusions. But you cannot run a successful economy on the back of them. This is the problem Liz Truss faces. The real world is unforgiving. And it’s fast approaching.

    Doesn't matter as long as she gest the gig.

    She really is continuity BoZo
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 41,239
    edited August 6
    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    My wife, who is pro-Blair and very centrist Tory, is massively pro-Truss. Hates Sunak.

    Threatened to leave me if I don't vote for Truss.

    Hmm..

    How will she know?
    She wants to see my ballot paper.

    Honestly, this isn't easy.
    Can't you explain why you disagree and think that Sunak is the better choice? Seems a bit unreasonable so long as your justification is reasonable.

    Still I'm hardly one to be giving advice on relationships.
    You start from the premise that Rishi is an open and shut case.

    I'm on the fence.

    Her view?

    She connects with her more. Likes the fact she's come from a modest background and comprehensive school and worked her way up. Likes the fact she works hard and succeeded. Thinks she knows how it is. Think she has more experience. Likes the fact she's loyal. Admires the fact she's willing to listen and change her mind. Likes her low tax and free market principles - exactly how my wife tends to think. Hates Sunak: thinks he's privileged and narrow-minded and obsessed with monetary balance alone and ideological about it. Said she would vote Lib Dem if he was PM.

    She thinks Liz Truss is the real deal and really likes her. I'm not sure how often this is commented on here but I think she breaks through to female voters more than is recognised.

    Worth noting.
    Truss isn't really from a modest background. Very middle class suburban, daughter of an academic.

    You can be loyal to a fault. And what about putting your loyalty to Britain above loyalty to Johnson?

    Sunak also has low tax/free market principles. Just more pragmatic about it.

    That's about the best I can do!
    Middle class suburban is probably the most typical type of background in this country.
    I think the specifics of Truss's background are quite niche. I say this because the details - left wing parents, moving between Scotland and the North of England, comprehensive school then Oxbridge - are scarily similar to my own, and it's often felt quite a lonely journey. She's even the same age as me! What I don't understand is how that upbringing made her become a Thatcherite Tory.
    I was a young LibDem from Oxbridge, active in the party and working to win a council ward, not that many years before Truss was around. I remember several conversations with ambitious parliamentary candidates in their 30s or 40s who had made significant personal, career and financial sacrifices to try and achieve their dream of getting into Parliament, were putting in huge amounts of work to try to win their seats Ashdown-style, and who mostly went on to fail, in some cases by frustratingly narrow margins, in others with good but distant second places as the only monument to their years of campaigning and commitment.

    Now and again names of eager young LibDem activists that I remember from that period crop up in the news, who didn’t fail or sacrifice their careers but who have remarkably got on in politics - Adonis, Roger Liddle, Leighton Andrews, now Truss.

    The answer as to why Truss decided becoming a Thatcherite Tory was a less difficult choice than thirty years of leaflet delivery in order to become vice-chair of her council’s planning committee must be in there somewhere.
    I am genuinely surprised to learn Leighton Andrews was a Liberal. He always struck me as the worst sort of Valleys Labour politician - stupid, greedy, arrogant, utterly self-centred and far too fond of the sound of his own thoroughly unpleasant voice.

    But then, the person who vied with him for the title of ‘Vilest Member of Welsh Labour’, Alun Davies, was ex-Plaid Cymru.
    He was a radical young liberal, Conference favourite and quite the darling of the left of the party in his day. Then, like so many others, he became keener on advancement than principles.

    An under-appreciated downside of our voting system is that it denudes the smaller parties of people with ambition and talent - if with the compensation that those who remain are the more principled and committed - and feeds the larger parties with people whose careers come first, and who have simply picked a side in order to join the game.
    No wonder he fitted so well with Valleys Labour :smile:

    I would hardly describe him as a ‘talent’ though. He was like a shorter, fatter version of Jacob Rees-Mogg running around everywhere trying to do by diktat things that far exceeded his powers.

    Here's an old article with some interesting background:

    https://beemeadowcroft.uk/liberal/leighton.html

    One might speculate that there might be a connection between his change in character and the change in the positions he has chosen to promote?
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 2,773
    dixiedean said:

    Haven't really understood why, if there has to be tax cuts, why Council Tax is never looked at?
    Abolishing it would cost £42 bn. It's hugely regressive.
    It would also be a good way of levelling up.

    Maybe because local services would collapse????
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 46,536
    Foxy said:

    moonshine said:

    Nigelb said:

    moonshine said:

    Two candidates, one ex Lib Dem, the other a blue blooded ex Tory Chancellor.

    One wants to lower the tax burden, which is at a 70-year high. And publicly questions the Bank’s record at ensuring sound money, which has increased its balance sheet by almost a trillion pounds with inflation now at double digits…

    …and effectively proposes borrowing more money to fund tax cuts.

    One candidate wants to borrow to take up the slack during a recession. The other has nothing to say other than they want to run a balanced budget into a downturn.

    I really wondered if Rishi learnt anything at all from his elite education and city career.
    It hinges very much whether one believes recession or inflation is the bigger threat at present.

    I think this is a rare example of something Truss has right, though she is not planning to spend her borrowing well, and tax cuts are of the wrong taxes.

    I think that the cause of current inflation is to do with external commodity costs, not over consumption or wage rises. As such it will be shortlived, and policy should be directed at economic support rather than inflation, at least until the spring of 2023.

    The risk of suppressing demand is one of greatly adding to people's misery at a time when energy prices have already severely squeezed discretionary spending. The recession may well be needlessly deep on what is already a fragile economic situation.

    Normally I am as dry as dust on government borrowing, but the next 6 months or so are a legitimate exception.
    I agree with that, but I didn't hear that time limit of the next 6 months and nor did I hear much about targeted support in the meantime.

    So, I was left with not really knowing what I'm voting for. At least with Rishi, I know.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 20,393
    ping said:

    Off topic.

    I noticed, when shopping at Asda ( occasional for me, I usually shop at Aldi) a few things;

    1. Prices up a fair bit. My bill was rather shocking.

    2. They’ve mostly replaced their “roll back” product advertising (where they claim to have cut the price of a thing back to where it used to be) - with “price lock” - where they increase the price and then claim that they won’t raise it in the near future. For Asda’s marketing people to think that is a positive for shoppers is somewhat ridiculous. Evidence Inflation expectations are becoming entrenched, an economist might say.

    3. Their 20p plastic bags have gone from quite good, to really really bad. The checkout lady warned me, but even putting 2 x 4 pint bottles of milk in was enough for it to pathetically break. Forgivable on a free bag, but for 20p a go, Asda’s taking the piss. Someone at head office, or in the supply chain is taking economising to the extreme.

    A few observations:
    1. Cost prices of everything has shot up multiple times this year alone. So of course your food bill has shot up and will continue to do so.
    2. "Roll back" is a well-known con. Put the price up, then roll it back week after week after week, then put the price up and repeat the exercise. Punters notice the message more than they track the prices.
    3. Asda was bought in the most ludicrous leverage deal so of course they are out to make cuts. Walmart were just happy to finally get shut of the thing.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 17,823
    ...
    Scott_xP said:

    You can, of course, build a political strategy centred on lies and delusions. But you cannot run a successful economy on the back of them. This is the problem Liz Truss faces. The real world is unforgiving. And it’s fast approaching.

    Doesn't matter as long as she gest the gig.

    She really is continuity BoZo
    I also suspect in Liz's case, the prize is the prize, and she won't fear legacy issues in the same way Johnson did. Losing the Union or our place on the World stage whilst PM won't hurt her so much as it would have Johnson.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 41,239
    Foxy said:

    moonshine said:

    Nigelb said:

    moonshine said:

    Two candidates, one ex Lib Dem, the other a blue blooded ex Tory Chancellor.

    One wants to lower the tax burden, which is at a 70-year high. And publicly questions the Bank’s record at ensuring sound money, which has increased its balance sheet by almost a trillion pounds with inflation now at double digits…

    …and effectively proposes borrowing more money to fund tax cuts.

    One candidate wants to borrow to take up the slack during a recession. The other has nothing to say other than they want to run a balanced budget into a downturn.

    I really wondered if Rishi learnt anything at all from his elite education and city career.
    It hinges very much whether one believes recession or inflation is the bigger threat at present.

    I think this is a rare example of something Truss has right, though she is not planning to spend her borrowing well, and tax cuts are of the wrong taxes.

    I think that the cause of current inflation is to do with external commodity costs, not over consumption or wage rises. As such it will be shortlived, and policy should be directed at economic support rather than inflation, at least until the spring of 2023.

    The risk of suppressing demand is one of greatly adding to people's misery at a time when energy prices have already severely squeezed discretionary spending. The recession may well be needlessly deep on what is already a fragile economic situation.

    Normally I am as dry as dust on government borrowing, but the next 6 months or so are a legitimate exception.
    Like putting on a watch that is stuck on noon, because you happen to know it's midday?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 42,730

    ...

    Scott_xP said:

    You can, of course, build a political strategy centred on lies and delusions. But you cannot run a successful economy on the back of them. This is the problem Liz Truss faces. The real world is unforgiving. And it’s fast approaching.

    Doesn't matter as long as she gest the gig.

    She really is continuity BoZo
    I also suspect in Liz's case, the prize is the prize, and she won't fear legacy issues in the same way Johnson did. Losing the Union or our place on the World stage whilst PM won't hurt her so much as it would have Johnson.
    Not so great for the rest of us.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,054
    Nigelb said:

    Ukraine’s military destroys 6 ammunition depots in southern Ukraine.

    Operational Command “South” said it killed 79 Russian troops and destroyed four tanks, two howitzers, an artillery installation, a radar station, and 22 armored and military vehicles on Aug. 5.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1555756841828769792

    Another morning, another report of Russian ammo stores on fire…
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,344
    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Sandpit, have Amnesty condemned Ukraine for increasing CO2 emissions by blowing up Russian ammo dumps yet?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 41,239

    dixiedean said:

    Haven't really understood why, if there has to be tax cuts, why Council Tax is never looked at?
    Abolishing it would cost £42 bn. It's hugely regressive.
    It would also be a good way of levelling up.

    Maybe because local services would collapse????
    And because, taking a wider view, we probably need more tax on property and less on employment?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 18,308

    ...

    Scott_xP said:

    You can, of course, build a political strategy centred on lies and delusions. But you cannot run a successful economy on the back of them. This is the problem Liz Truss faces. The real world is unforgiving. And it’s fast approaching.

    Doesn't matter as long as she gest the gig.

    She really is continuity BoZo
    I also suspect in Liz's case, the prize is the prize, and she won't fear legacy issues in the same way Johnson did. Losing the Union or our place on the World stage whilst PM won't hurt her so much as it would have Johnson.
    Really? I'd say the opposite. Cameron just thought he'd be 'rather good at it', and I think that part of Johnson's motivation was to beat Cameron, the way he beat him at everything. I think Johnson would have liked to do more Johnsonian vast building projects, but that's all. Liz seems genuinely to want to get stuck in.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 34,333
    edited August 6

    Foxy said:

    moonshine said:

    Nigelb said:

    moonshine said:

    Two candidates, one ex Lib Dem, the other a blue blooded ex Tory Chancellor.

    One wants to lower the tax burden, which is at a 70-year high. And publicly questions the Bank’s record at ensuring sound money, which has increased its balance sheet by almost a trillion pounds with inflation now at double digits…

    …and effectively proposes borrowing more money to fund tax cuts.

    One candidate wants to borrow to take up the slack during a recession. The other has nothing to say other than they want to run a balanced budget into a downturn.

    I really wondered if Rishi learnt anything at all from his elite education and city career.
    It hinges very much whether one believes recession or inflation is the bigger threat at present.

    I think this is a rare example of something Truss has right, though she is not planning to spend her borrowing well, and tax cuts are of the wrong taxes.

    I think that the cause of current inflation is to do with external commodity costs, not over consumption or wage rises. As such it will be shortlived, and policy should be directed at economic support rather than inflation, at least until the spring of 2023.

    The risk of suppressing demand is one of greatly adding to people's misery at a time when energy prices have already severely squeezed discretionary spending. The recession may well be needlessly deep on what is already a fragile economic situation.

    Normally I am as dry as dust on government borrowing, but the next 6 months or so are a legitimate exception.
    I agree with that, but I didn't hear that time limit of the next 6 months and nor did I hear much about targeted support in the meantime.

    So, I was left with not really knowing what I'm voting for. At least with Rishi, I know.
    The six months or so would be my review point, not hers. We would see then whether measures to control inflation were really needed longer term.

    I wouldn't go with tax cuts beyond the NI cut proposed though Sunaks modification of this greatly reduced its impact on those with modest
    wages. The next step should be dealing with the effects of inflation on fiscal drag, not just across income tax, but also a lot of other tax policy, from pensions allowances to tapering of capital gains. These aspects of tax code have been written for times of near zero inflation, and inflation will create a lot of distortion.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 6,506
    Nigelb said:

    Head of Amnesty’s Ukraine branch resigns in protest.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/olex_scherba/status/1555628616741969923
    Oksana Pokalchuk, the head of Amnesty International Ukraine to resign over disagreements with @amnesty ‘s leadership. “If you don’t live in a country, that’s being torn apart, you’ll never understand what it means, to blame the army of its defenders”

    As I understand it they accused Ukraine's military of basing themselves in schools but all Ukrainian schools are shut because they are exactly the sort of target the Russians would likely strike. The criticism on schools appears to be that they risk destroying the buildings and might affect kids education in the future.

    As for hospitals Amnesty says 'In two towns, dozens of soldiers were resting, milling about, and eating meals in hospitals. In another town, soldiers were firing from near the hospital.'

    Seriously if that is the limit of it then it's pretty minor. Perhaps the soldiers could have been a bit more careful? The only significant criticism that I could see was forces basing themselves near large residential buildings.

    https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2022/08/ukraine-ukrainian-fighting-tactics-endanger-civilians/
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 20,393
    The point about *both* candidates is that they are not talking about the people at risk this winter, they are trying to woo the people not at risk. So the winner becomes PM far too late to do anything with the mindset that whatever action they take needs to benefit the people who don't need help.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 46,536
    IanB2 said:

    You can, of course, build a political strategy centred on lies and delusions. But you cannot run a successful economy on the back of them. This is the problem Liz Truss faces. The real world is unforgiving. And it’s fast approaching.

    Which is the real tragedy of the demise of the clown; the Tories have learned nothing from it, at all.
    You see, posts like this make me want to re-vote for Truss. I still have my paper ballot.

    It's noteworthy that all the anti-Truss comments on here are from non-Tories, and similar with 'likes' for Rishi.

    That makes me wonder if I made the right decision.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 46,536
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    moonshine said:

    Nigelb said:

    moonshine said:

    Two candidates, one ex Lib Dem, the other a blue blooded ex Tory Chancellor.

    One wants to lower the tax burden, which is at a 70-year high. And publicly questions the Bank’s record at ensuring sound money, which has increased its balance sheet by almost a trillion pounds with inflation now at double digits…

    …and effectively proposes borrowing more money to fund tax cuts.

    One candidate wants to borrow to take up the slack during a recession. The other has nothing to say other than they want to run a balanced budget into a downturn.

    I really wondered if Rishi learnt anything at all from his elite education and city career.
    It hinges very much whether one believes recession or inflation is the bigger threat at present.

    I think this is a rare example of something Truss has right, though she is not planning to spend her borrowing well, and tax cuts are of the wrong taxes.

    I think that the cause of current inflation is to do with external commodity costs, not over consumption or wage rises. As such it will be shortlived, and policy should be directed at economic support rather than inflation, at least until the spring of 2023.

    The risk of suppressing demand is one of greatly adding to people's misery at a time when energy prices have already severely squeezed discretionary spending. The recession may well be needlessly deep on what is already a fragile economic situation.

    Normally I am as dry as dust on government borrowing, but the next 6 months or so are a legitimate exception.
    I agree with that, but I didn't hear that time limit of the next 6 months and nor did I hear much about targeted support in the meantime.

    So, I was left with not really knowing what I'm voting for. At least with Rishi, I know.
    The six months or so would be my review point, not hers. We would see then whether measures to control inflation were really needed longer term.

    I wouldn't go with tax cuts beyond the NI cut proposed though Sunaks modification of this greatly reduced its impact on those with modest
    wages. The next step should be dealing with the effects of inflation on fiscal drag, not just across income tax, but also a lot of other tax policy, from pensions allowances to tapering of capital gains. These aspects of tax code have been written for times of near zero inflation, and inflation will create a lot of distortion.
    I find it so weird that we agree on most fiscal and monetary matters, and market reform, and yet you're conventionally left-wing on social and cultural matters, migration and foreign policy.

    To be fair, you've always been honest about this though.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 52,132
    edited August 6

    Nigelb said:

    Head of Amnesty’s Ukraine branch resigns in protest.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/olex_scherba/status/1555628616741969923
    Oksana Pokalchuk, the head of Amnesty International Ukraine to resign over disagreements with @amnesty ‘s leadership. “If you don’t live in a country, that’s being torn apart, you’ll never understand what it means, to blame the army of its defenders”

    As I understand it they accused Ukraine's military of basing themselves in schools but all Ukrainian schools are shut because they are exactly the sort of target the Russians would likely strike. The criticism on schools appears to be that they risk destroying the buildings and might affect kids education in the future.
    I was going to suggest they station themselves near some of our schools on that basis, in the hope they would get blown up and rebuilt.

    Then I remembered just how bad the rebuilds I've seen are, and thought - possibly not.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 52,132
    edited August 6

    IanB2 said:

    You can, of course, build a political strategy centred on lies and delusions. But you cannot run a successful economy on the back of them. This is the problem Liz Truss faces. The real world is unforgiving. And it’s fast approaching.

    Which is the real tragedy of the demise of the clown; the Tories have learned nothing from it, at all.
    You see, posts like this make me want to re-vote for Truss. I still have my paper ballot.

    It's noteworthy that all the anti-Truss comments on here are from non-Tories, and similar with 'likes' for Rishi.

    That makes me wonder if I made the right decision.
    Depends on whether you want people who are not tribal Tories to vote for the party or not.

    TBF you are probably on a hiding to nothing with that at the moment anyway, but if only Uberloyalists like Hyufd vote for the party we'll be talking about reluctant Turkish conscripts A LOT on the night of the next election.

    Edit - and as @IanB2 has pointed out, Hyufd isn't struck on Truss anyway.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 41,239

    IanB2 said:

    You can, of course, build a political strategy centred on lies and delusions. But you cannot run a successful economy on the back of them. This is the problem Liz Truss faces. The real world is unforgiving. And it’s fast approaching.

    Which is the real tragedy of the demise of the clown; the Tories have learned nothing from it, at all.
    You see, posts like this make me want to re-vote for Truss. I still have my paper ballot.

    It's noteworthy that all the anti-Truss comments on here are from non-Tories, and similar with 'likes' for Rishi.

    That makes me wonder if I made the right decision.
    I don't particularly like Rishi either; the Tories should have gone for Mordaunt.

    But isn't pitching at non-Tories - particularly when those self-declaring as Tories is down to almost 30% - the idea in order to have a chance at the next election?

    Anyhow, the sensible Tories in here are all avoiding Truss. Indeed, even HY is avoiding Truss. You really don't need to rely on my example.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 20,393

    IanB2 said:

    You can, of course, build a political strategy centred on lies and delusions. But you cannot run a successful economy on the back of them. This is the problem Liz Truss faces. The real world is unforgiving. And it’s fast approaching.

    Which is the real tragedy of the demise of the clown; the Tories have learned nothing from it, at all.
    You see, posts like this make me want to re-vote for Truss. I still have my paper ballot.

    It's noteworthy that all the anti-Truss comments on here are from non-Tories, and similar with 'likes' for Rishi.

    That makes me wonder if I made the right decision.
    Sunak could win the next election. Truss cannot. So it depends if you want to be a purist and lose or not...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 41,239

    IanB2 said:

    You can, of course, build a political strategy centred on lies and delusions. But you cannot run a successful economy on the back of them. This is the problem Liz Truss faces. The real world is unforgiving. And it’s fast approaching.

    Which is the real tragedy of the demise of the clown; the Tories have learned nothing from it, at all.
    You see, posts like this make me want to re-vote for Truss. I still have my paper ballot.

    It's noteworthy that all the anti-Truss comments on here are from non-Tories, and similar with 'likes' for Rishi.

    That makes me wonder if I made the right decision.
    Sunak could win the next election. Truss cannot. So it depends if you want to be a purist and lose or not...
    Apart from Leon, who is hoping she will make BDSM compulsory, do we actually have any Truss supporters in here?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 42,730
    edited August 6
    .

    Nigelb said:

    Head of Amnesty’s Ukraine branch resigns in protest.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/olex_scherba/status/1555628616741969923
    Oksana Pokalchuk, the head of Amnesty International Ukraine to resign over disagreements with @amnesty ‘s leadership. “If you don’t live in a country, that’s being torn apart, you’ll never understand what it means, to blame the army of its defenders”

    As I understand it they accused Ukraine's military of basing themselves in schools but all Ukrainian schools are shut because they are exactly the sort of target the Russians would likely strike. The criticism on schools appears to be that they risk destroying the buildings and might affect kids education in the future.

    As for hospitals Amnesty says 'In two towns, dozens of soldiers were resting, milling about, and eating meals in hospitals. In another town, soldiers were firing from near the hospital.'

    Seriously if that is the limit of it then it's pretty minor. Perhaps the soldiers could have been a bit more careful? The only significant criticism that I could see was forces basing themselves near large residential buildings.

    https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2022/08/ukraine-ukrainian-fighting-tactics-endanger-civilians/
    The report is simply unjustified, though.
    It lacks a systematic analysis of military necessity - Ukraine is defending against an illegal war of aggression, and we’ve seen the consequences of Russian occupation for civilians. As a matter of both law and morality, Ukrainian military decisions must be assessed for effectiveness rather than whether it ticks an Amnesty box.
    That is not to excuse any breach of the laws of war, of course.

    In contrast, every shell fire by Russia on Ukraine’s territory constitutes a war crime. They do not have the defence or justification of military necessity for any of their actions.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 18,308
    I've just read the Amnesty report - it is very much caveated and couched in condemnation for Russia's attacks. And I understand that Amnesty has issued several other publications condemning acts by Russia.

    I find it quite troubling that people here seem to want an organisation like Amnesty International to show more solidarity, and don't 'feed Russia's narrative'. Something like this is either true or it isn't. If it's true, it doesn't matter whose narrative it fits in with. Those concerned have a right to be heard, not brushed under the carpet.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 42,730

    IanB2 said:

    You can, of course, build a political strategy centred on lies and delusions. But you cannot run a successful economy on the back of them. This is the problem Liz Truss faces. The real world is unforgiving. And it’s fast approaching.

    Which is the real tragedy of the demise of the clown; the Tories have learned nothing from it, at all.
    You see, posts like this make me want to re-vote for Truss. I still have my paper ballot.

    It's noteworthy that all the anti-Truss comments on here are from non-Tories, and similar with 'likes' for Rishi.

    That makes me wonder if I made the right decision.
    I don’t like either of them, FWIW.
    I just agree with you that Truss is worse.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 9,513
    edited August 6

    IanB2 said:

    You can, of course, build a political strategy centred on lies and delusions. But you cannot run a successful economy on the back of them. This is the problem Liz Truss faces. The real world is unforgiving. And it’s fast approaching.

    Which is the real tragedy of the demise of the clown; the Tories have learned nothing from it, at all.
    You see, posts like this make me want to re-vote for Truss. I still have my paper ballot.

    It's noteworthy that all the anti-Truss comments on here are from non-Tories, and similar with 'likes' for Rishi.

    That makes me wonder if I made the right decision.
    For what it's worth I'm a non-Tory who is pretty on the fence between the two. I wasn't impressed with Truss casually stating she would borrow to fund tax cuts, and I'm not sure I entirely trust Sunak to fully support Ukraine.

    From a partisan point of view I guess I dislike prominent Truss supporters like Dorries and Rees-Mogg more than the few remaining Sunak supporters. But I don't really get the visceral anti-Truss climate on here.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 42,730
    edited August 6

    I've just read the Amnesty report - it is very much caveated and couched in condemnation for Russia's attacks. And I understand that Amnesty has issued several other publications condemning acts by Russia.

    I find it quite troubling that people here seem to want an organisation like Amnesty International to show more solidarity, and don't 'feed Russia's narrative'. Something like this is either true or it isn't. If it's true, it doesn't matter whose narrative it fits in with. Those concerned have a right to be heard, not brushed under the carpet.

    Straw man argument.
    Please address what we’ve actually said.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 46,536
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    You can, of course, build a political strategy centred on lies and delusions. But you cannot run a successful economy on the back of them. This is the problem Liz Truss faces. The real world is unforgiving. And it’s fast approaching.

    Which is the real tragedy of the demise of the clown; the Tories have learned nothing from it, at all.
    You see, posts like this make me want to re-vote for Truss. I still have my paper ballot.

    It's noteworthy that all the anti-Truss comments on here are from non-Tories, and similar with 'likes' for Rishi.

    That makes me wonder if I made the right decision.
    I don't particularly like Rishi either; the Tories should have gone for Mordaunt.

    But isn't pitching at non-Tories - particularly when those self-declaring as Tories is down to almost 30% - the idea in order to have a chance at the next election?

    Anyhow, the sensible Tories in here are all avoiding Truss. Indeed, even HY is avoiding Truss. You really don't need to rely on my example.
    None of you are floating voters on here.

    I'd be interested in hearing from them though.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 9,513
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    You can, of course, build a political strategy centred on lies and delusions. But you cannot run a successful economy on the back of them. This is the problem Liz Truss faces. The real world is unforgiving. And it’s fast approaching.

    Which is the real tragedy of the demise of the clown; the Tories have learned nothing from it, at all.
    You see, posts like this make me want to re-vote for Truss. I still have my paper ballot.

    It's noteworthy that all the anti-Truss comments on here are from non-Tories, and similar with 'likes' for Rishi.

    That makes me wonder if I made the right decision.
    Sunak could win the next election. Truss cannot. So it depends if you want to be a purist and lose or not...
    Apart from Leon, who is hoping she will make BDSM compulsory, do we actually have any Truss supporters in here?
    Bartholomew is the big Truss fan. I'm surprised there aren't more.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 6,506

    IanB2 said:

    You can, of course, build a political strategy centred on lies and delusions. But you cannot run a successful economy on the back of them. This is the problem Liz Truss faces. The real world is unforgiving. And it’s fast approaching.

    Which is the real tragedy of the demise of the clown; the Tories have learned nothing from it, at all.
    You see, posts like this make me want to re-vote for Truss. I still have my paper ballot.

    It's noteworthy that all the anti-Truss comments on here are from non-Tories, and similar with 'likes' for Rishi.

    That makes me wonder if I made the right decision.
    For what it's worth I'm a non-Tory who is pretty on the fence between the two. I wasn't impressed with Truss casually stating she would borrow to find tax cuts, and I'm not sure I entirely Truss Sunak to fully support Ukraine.

    From a partisan point of view I guess I dislike prominent Truss supporters like Dorries and Rees-Mogg more than the few remaining Sunak supporters. But I don't really get the visceral anti-Truss climate on here.
    She worries me. I fear she's a fantasist playing to the gallery. In her FT interview she criticised the Treasury with their 'abacuses.' Nowadays I think they would be using calculators but whatever the institution's fault I tend to think that people in the Treasury really ought to be adding up numbers.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 18,308
    Nigelb said:

    I've just read the Amnesty report - it is very much caveated and couched in condemnation for Russia's attacks. And I understand that Amnesty has issued several other publications condemning acts by Russia.

    I find it quite troubling that people here seem to want an organisation like Amnesty International to show more solidarity, and don't 'feed Russia's narrative'. Something like this is either true or it isn't. If it's true, it doesn't matter whose narrative it fits in with. Those concerned have a right to be heard, not brushed under the carpet.

    Straw man argument.
    Please address what we’ve actually said.
    You posted and commended a Tweet thread that made 'feeding Russia's narrative' a key pillar of its critique of the report.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 41,239

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    You can, of course, build a political strategy centred on lies and delusions. But you cannot run a successful economy on the back of them. This is the problem Liz Truss faces. The real world is unforgiving. And it’s fast approaching.

    Which is the real tragedy of the demise of the clown; the Tories have learned nothing from it, at all.
    You see, posts like this make me want to re-vote for Truss. I still have my paper ballot.

    It's noteworthy that all the anti-Truss comments on here are from non-Tories, and similar with 'likes' for Rishi.

    That makes me wonder if I made the right decision.
    I don't particularly like Rishi either; the Tories should have gone for Mordaunt.

    But isn't pitching at non-Tories - particularly when those self-declaring as Tories is down to almost 30% - the idea in order to have a chance at the next election?

    Anyhow, the sensible Tories in here are all avoiding Truss. Indeed, even HY is avoiding Truss. You really don't need to rely on my example.
    None of you are floating voters on here.

    I'd be interested in hearing from them though.
    Mordaunt could have brought some 'real human' to the role, as well as ticking enough boxes with her military background to keep her own side happy. That we've been left instead with these two really is to the party's discredit - and the fact they were two closest to Johnson through all of the scandals makes my point that they've learned precisely nothing.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 41,239
    edited August 6

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    You can, of course, build a political strategy centred on lies and delusions. But you cannot run a successful economy on the back of them. This is the problem Liz Truss faces. The real world is unforgiving. And it’s fast approaching.

    Which is the real tragedy of the demise of the clown; the Tories have learned nothing from it, at all.
    You see, posts like this make me want to re-vote for Truss. I still have my paper ballot.

    It's noteworthy that all the anti-Truss comments on here are from non-Tories, and similar with 'likes' for Rishi.

    That makes me wonder if I made the right decision.
    Sunak could win the next election. Truss cannot. So it depends if you want to be a purist and lose or not...
    Apart from Leon, who is hoping she will make BDSM compulsory, do we actually have any Truss supporters in here?
    Bartholomew is the big Truss fan. I'm surprised there aren't more.
    True, I overlooked him. He's not, of course, a voter.

  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 3,492

    Nigelb said:

    I've just read the Amnesty report - it is very much caveated and couched in condemnation for Russia's attacks. And I understand that Amnesty has issued several other publications condemning acts by Russia.

    I find it quite troubling that people here seem to want an organisation like Amnesty International to show more solidarity, and don't 'feed Russia's narrative'. Something like this is either true or it isn't. If it's true, it doesn't matter whose narrative it fits in with. Those concerned have a right to be heard, not brushed under the carpet.

    Straw man argument.
    Please address what we’ve actually said.
    You posted and commended a Tweet thread that made 'feeding Russia's narrative' a key pillar of its critique of the report.
    Who could possibly have imagined that you wouldn’t have a problem with feeding Russia’s narrative?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 44,323
    In Sunak and Truss the Tories have 2 articulate, well educated, moderately competent potential leaders. They both have flaws, and both will seriously struggle to cope with the problems we have right now. Sunak is the more small c Conservative one, dubious about the ability of the state to do much and keener to leave things to private enterprise and the hidden hand of the market. Truss is keener to have government do things, to take more risks and will undoubtedly be more activist.

    Have either of them got a real handle on the mess that they are inheriting with inflation rampant, QE, high taxes but very poorly performing public services, low productivity and investment, an ongoing balance of payments problem, Andrew Bailey, Ukraine, gas prices, etc etc? Not really, but then who does?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 18,793

    IanB2 said:

    You can, of course, build a political strategy centred on lies and delusions. But you cannot run a successful economy on the back of them. This is the problem Liz Truss faces. The real world is unforgiving. And it’s fast approaching.

    Which is the real tragedy of the demise of the clown; the Tories have learned nothing from it, at all.
    You see, posts like this make me want to re-vote for Truss. I still have my paper ballot.

    It's noteworthy that all the anti-Truss comments on here are from non-Tories, and similar with 'likes' for Rishi.

    That makes me wonder if I made the right decision.
    There are plenty of anti Truss comments on PB from current and recent Tories. The biggest concern I would have about her ability to change her deeply held convictions. She says she is on a political journey. I wonder where that journey will take her once elected to the top job.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 9,513

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    You can, of course, build a political strategy centred on lies and delusions. But you cannot run a successful economy on the back of them. This is the problem Liz Truss faces. The real world is unforgiving. And it’s fast approaching.

    Which is the real tragedy of the demise of the clown; the Tories have learned nothing from it, at all.
    You see, posts like this make me want to re-vote for Truss. I still have my paper ballot.

    It's noteworthy that all the anti-Truss comments on here are from non-Tories, and similar with 'likes' for Rishi.

    That makes me wonder if I made the right decision.
    I don't particularly like Rishi either; the Tories should have gone for Mordaunt.

    But isn't pitching at non-Tories - particularly when those self-declaring as Tories is down to almost 30% - the idea in order to have a chance at the next election?

    Anyhow, the sensible Tories in here are all avoiding Truss. Indeed, even HY is avoiding Truss. You really don't need to rely on my example.
    None of you are floating voters on here.

    I'd be interested in hearing from them though.
    The polling evidence we have suggests that Truss has won more widespread support among the population as a whole during the leadership contest than Sunak has. I think this is most likely because people aren't happy with the status quo and she has given a strong change message.

    At least you can say that she has the political ability to create a message that will appeal to voters.
  • TazTaz Posts: 5,775
    Jake Berry on Sky News. Truss to offer hope not handouts.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 46,536

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    You can, of course, build a political strategy centred on lies and delusions. But you cannot run a successful economy on the back of them. This is the problem Liz Truss faces. The real world is unforgiving. And it’s fast approaching.

    Which is the real tragedy of the demise of the clown; the Tories have learned nothing from it, at all.
    You see, posts like this make me want to re-vote for Truss. I still have my paper ballot.

    It's noteworthy that all the anti-Truss comments on here are from non-Tories, and similar with 'likes' for Rishi.

    That makes me wonder if I made the right decision.
    Sunak could win the next election. Truss cannot. So it depends if you want to be a purist and lose or not...
    Apart from Leon, who is hoping she will make BDSM compulsory, do we actually have any Truss supporters in here?
    Bartholomew is the big Truss fan. I'm surprised there aren't more.
    Given the hard time they'd get if they posted here there'll be lurking/staying silent.

    This board hates Truss.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 18,308

    Nigelb said:

    I've just read the Amnesty report - it is very much caveated and couched in condemnation for Russia's attacks. And I understand that Amnesty has issued several other publications condemning acts by Russia.

    I find it quite troubling that people here seem to want an organisation like Amnesty International to show more solidarity, and don't 'feed Russia's narrative'. Something like this is either true or it isn't. If it's true, it doesn't matter whose narrative it fits in with. Those concerned have a right to be heard, not brushed under the carpet.

    Straw man argument.
    Please address what we’ve actually said.
    You posted and commended a Tweet thread that made 'feeding Russia's narrative' a key pillar of its critique of the report.
    Who could possibly have imagined that you wouldn’t have a problem with feeding Russia’s narrative?
    I have a problem with falsehoods feeding a false narrative. The truth is different.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,344
    Mr. Doethur, indeed, a change of government may well occur.

    Mr. Password, the weakness of democracy is that the capacity to govern has precious little to do with campaigning talent. As the current PM proves.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 46,536
    Jonathan said:

    IanB2 said:

    You can, of course, build a political strategy centred on lies and delusions. But you cannot run a successful economy on the back of them. This is the problem Liz Truss faces. The real world is unforgiving. And it’s fast approaching.

    Which is the real tragedy of the demise of the clown; the Tories have learned nothing from it, at all.
    You see, posts like this make me want to re-vote for Truss. I still have my paper ballot.

    It's noteworthy that all the anti-Truss comments on here are from non-Tories, and similar with 'likes' for Rishi.

    That makes me wonder if I made the right decision.
    There are plenty of anti Truss comments on PB from current and recent Tories. The biggest concern I would have about her ability to change her deeply held convictions. She says she is on a political journey. I wonder where that journey will take her once elected to the top job.
    Well, quite. I just don't know what I will get. And I will also be culpable if I vote for her.

    I don't need that on my conscience.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 52,132
    Jonathan said:

    IanB2 said:

    You can, of course, build a political strategy centred on lies and delusions. But you cannot run a successful economy on the back of them. This is the problem Liz Truss faces. The real world is unforgiving. And it’s fast approaching.

    Which is the real tragedy of the demise of the clown; the Tories have learned nothing from it, at all.
    You see, posts like this make me want to re-vote for Truss. I still have my paper ballot.

    It's noteworthy that all the anti-Truss comments on here are from non-Tories, and similar with 'likes' for Rishi.

    That makes me wonder if I made the right decision.
    There are plenty of anti Truss comments on PB from current and recent Tories. The biggest concern I would have about her ability to change her deeply held convictions. She says she is on a political journey. I wonder where that journey will take her once elected to the top job.
    I don't think it's an issue. She doesn't have any.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 6,506

    Mr. Doethur, indeed, a change of government may well occur.

    Mr. Password, the weakness of democracy is that the capacity to govern has precious little to do with campaigning talent. As the current PM proves.

    Democracy was producing fairly decent leaders until recently. We should be asking why things have deteriorated.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 31,451
    edited August 6

    I've just read the Amnesty report - it is very much caveated and couched in condemnation for Russia's attacks. And I understand that Amnesty has issued several other publications condemning acts by Russia.

    I find it quite troubling that people here seem to want an organisation like Amnesty International to show more solidarity, and don't 'feed Russia's narrative'. Something like this is either true or it isn't. If it's true, it doesn't matter whose narrative it fits in with. Those concerned have a right to be heard, not brushed under the carpet.

    It's a report that is written by people who have no understanding of urban fighting. There is no rule of war that says that the defenders of an urban area must avoid situating military units in civilian buildings. There is in fact, no way of defending an urban area without making use of civilian buildings, as the Soviets would have readily acknowledged in WWII.

    To condemn the Ukrainian army for doing so is simply victim blaming.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,054

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    You can, of course, build a political strategy centred on lies and delusions. But you cannot run a successful economy on the back of them. This is the problem Liz Truss faces. The real world is unforgiving. And it’s fast approaching.

    Which is the real tragedy of the demise of the clown; the Tories have learned nothing from it, at all.
    You see, posts like this make me want to re-vote for Truss. I still have my paper ballot.

    It's noteworthy that all the anti-Truss comments on here are from non-Tories, and similar with 'likes' for Rishi.

    That makes me wonder if I made the right decision.
    Sunak could win the next election. Truss cannot. So it depends if you want to be a purist and lose or not...
    Apart from Leon, who is hoping she will make BDSM compulsory, do we actually have any Truss supporters in here?
    Bartholomew is the big Truss fan. I'm surprised there aren't more.
    Given the hard time they'd get if they posted here there'll be lurking/staying silent.

    This board hates Truss.
    Andrew Neil has a good take on this. It’s a good take because it agrees with what I’ve been saying for weeks!

    Rishi is the ‘blob’ candidate, and the same blob that got Johnson are coming for Truss straight away

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-11085647/ANDREW-NEIL-Liz-Trusss-biggest-foe-wont-Starmer-vitrolic-campaign-Left-Blob.html

    But it is not Starmer Truss has to worry about. It is what is best described as the Left Blob, which is now omnipresent in British public life, dominant in the citadels of power, including most of the media (above all the broadcasters), the Civil Service, the NHS, the legal system (including the judiciary), education (especially the universities), social media, most public bodies and private charities.”
This discussion has been closed.