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The money goes on Truss to be PM after next election – politicalbetting.com

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  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 102,738

    HYUFD said:

    Boris has a wedding thanksgiving party at a Grade 1 house in the Cotswolds with guests including Nadine Dorries and Jacob Rees-Mogg, Ben Wallace, Zac Goldsmith, John Whittingdale and Lord Bamford and his father and sister

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11064941/A-family-affair-Boris-sister-Rachel-arrives-Carries-wedding-celebration-party.html

    Do you have an invitation, HYUFD of Epping?
    Sadly not
  • dixiedean said:

    If Liz Truss is the answer, what is the question, exactly?

    What is Liz going to do (or not do) that Boris wasn't doing (or was doing) that will turn Conservative fortunes around?

    Because, apart from the trivial (not keeping sex pests in the Whips' Office) and the downright dangerous (assuming government can spend like a sailor without consequences), it's not obvious.

    The "trivial" was deemed pretty serious a few weeks ago.

    If the same policies are done, but minus Boris's personal flaws like his propensity to lie more than the average politician does, then would that not be a significant change in its own right?
    It may be. But would it be more successful?
    Well it was successful enough recipe two and a half years ago to get an 80 seat majority.

    I get that those who want a complete change in direction, us to rejoin the Single Market etc, etc might not think this is a significant change - but Boris wasn't brought down because of policy failings. Well apart from his failure to stick to the manifesto on tax, which Truss is promising to fix.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 17,147
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    dixiedean said:

    FPT.
    2m attend an Anglican church ONCE A MONTH or more?
    That's a mere 3% of the population. And that hardly shows a devout devotion anyways.

    Sounds like self reporting distortion, a bit like long Covid. Sounds far too high.
    Not really


    There are 16,000 C of E churches in England (presumably a few more in Sco, NI and Wales)

    Plus 42 cathedrals (which will get big crowds for Evensongs and the like)

    2 million divided by 16,000 = 125

    That means each church needs to get just 125 visitors spread over four Sundays, and some other services

    Some will get much less than that, if any, but some churches will get way more than that - and add in the big numbers for the cathedrals - and then it sounds quite feasible
    When did you last go to church? Our village church 3 years ago closed for lack of attendance. Our previous village pop. circa 1,000 had a regular attendance of about a dozen, including the vicar, readers and churchwardens.
    When did you last go to a big happy clappy more-evangelical CofE church in London with hundreds of congregants?

    They should lock the doors and not let those mad feckers out again.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 23,445

    dixiedean said:

    If Liz Truss is the answer, what is the question, exactly?

    What is Liz going to do (or not do) that Boris wasn't doing (or was doing) that will turn Conservative fortunes around?

    Because, apart from the trivial (not keeping sex pests in the Whips' Office) and the downright dangerous (assuming government can spend like a sailor without consequences), it's not obvious.

    The "trivial" was deemed pretty serious a few weeks ago.

    If the same policies are done, but minus Boris's personal flaws like his propensity to lie more than the average politician does, then would that not be a significant change in its own right?
    It may be. But would it be more successful?
    Well it was successful enough recipe two and a half years ago to get an 80 seat majority.

    I get that those who want a complete change in direction, us to rejoin the Single Market etc, etc might not think this is a significant change - but Boris wasn't brought down because of policy failings. Well apart from his failure to stick to the manifesto on tax, which Truss is promising to fix.
    Are you quite sure that played no part whatsoever?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 102,738
    Sunak and Truss now neck and neck with Tory councillors

    Truss 31%
    Sunak 29%
    Undecided 32%

    https://twitter.com/SavantaComRes/status/1553462935032401926?s=20&t=ddC2HfRSB945qEvTESNx3w
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 22,323
    HYUFD said:

    Sunak and Truss now neck and neck with Tory councillors

    Truss 31%
    Sunak 29%
    Undecided 32%

    https://twitter.com/SavantaComRes/status/1553462935032401926?s=20&t=ddC2HfRSB945qEvTESNx3w

    Do we have changes from a previous poll of Tory councillors?
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 4,668
    Plenty now calling that we are past peak US inflation. Sure, they don’t have the gas issue to contend with and have lost relatively less oil refining capacity. But they did undertake a massive monetary and fiscal expansion in covid, with the Trump cheque as close to textbook helicopter money as you can envisage.

    It’s plausible to think that we’ll also be past the peak in inflation as the last winter frosts thaw. Real question then will be what sort of growth environment do we exit into.

    Can’t help but think those slating Truss’s chances do so from a position of either instinctive anti-Toryism or anti-Brexitism, rather than dispassionate calculation. Personally I can envisage a scenario where she surfs through a very difficult first 6 months with the electorate giving her the benefit of the doubt as a new leader, before she (fairly or otherwise) claims the peace dividend. A sensibly balanced Cabinet and she might far surpass Theresa May, and win a sufficiently reasonable majority that she outlasts not only Johnson’s tenure but Cameron’s too.

    Feel free to remind me of this next autumn if TSE is right and there’s another leadership vote, but I (gentlemen’s) wager I’m more right than the most scathing predictions are.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 25,993

    Leon said:

    HELP

    I have to take a yawning teenage daughter on a one or two day trip out of London

    She's 16, bright, but easily bored, quite likes history

    Any suggestions? Quirkier the better perhaps

    Brighton of course. The Royal Pavilion and the adjacent museum for the history. Then the seedy underbelly and all the woke deviancy to stave off the boredom. And the beach, and the pier.....
    Hmm. Good idea, trouble is I know Brighton really well, and I want to have fun too. Tricky...
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 9,513
    Leon said:

    HELP

    I have to take a yawning teenage daughter on a one or two day trip out of London

    She's 16, bright, but easily bored, quite likes history

    Any suggestions? Quirkier the better perhaps

    There are a bunch of different caves within striking distance of London. A cave tour is something a bit different, can have some interesting history attached. I wouldn't know a specific one to recommend though.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 34,333

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Niiigel, Nig-el Far-age, Everyone Loves Your Cords!

    Niiigel, Ni-gel Far-age, Thanks For Stopping the Hordes!


    Thar's what our smiling, rosy-cheeked children will sing, on this:

    the Feast of Leave.

    And Brexit Day shall ne'er go by,
    From this day to the ending of the world,
    But we in it shall be remembered, with our cheers
    We few, we happy few, we band of Brexiteers

    Fewer and fewer...
    In about 5 years barely anyone will admit to voting Remain. In ten years Remainers will be actively hunted for sport, and the last of them will have to hide in "Remoaner Holes", tiny little alcoves in big old houses in Richmond and Cambridge, as the hardcore Leavers smoke them out with dogs and guns and super laser drones which look like weird grey wasps, or maybe hornets
    We're in the King Edward IV phase of Brexit at the moment.

    The question is whether we get Queen Mary I next or a long Queen Elizabeth I reign who effectively settles it for good.
    Good Queen Bess settled the issue for good with a relatively moderate settlement that frustrated evangelicals who wanted to go further.

    The evangelicals would have had their way if Mary had not usurped Queen Jane. I think that's the branch we're heading down.
    There was the small matter of Civil War, regicide, Restoration and the Glorious Revolution before it was truly settled for good.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 19,636

    Leon said:

    HELP

    I have to take a yawning teenage daughter on a one or two day trip out of London

    She's 16, bright, but easily bored, quite likes history

    Any suggestions? Quirkier the better perhaps

    The Farage Monument on Primrose Hill.
    You say OUT of London? Otherwise I'd suggest

    https://gunpowderimmersive.com/
  • moonshine said:

    Plenty now calling that we are past peak US inflation. Sure, they don’t have the gas issue to contend with and have lost relatively less oil refining capacity. But they did undertake a massive monetary and fiscal expansion in covid, with the Trump cheque as close to textbook helicopter money as you can envisage.

    It’s plausible to think that we’ll also be past the peak in inflation as the last winter frosts thaw. Real question then will be what sort of growth environment do we exit into.

    Can’t help but think those slating Truss’s chances do so from a position of either instinctive anti-Toryism or anti-Brexitism, rather than dispassionate calculation. Personally I can envisage a scenario where she surfs through a very difficult first 6 months with the electorate giving her the benefit of the doubt as a new leader, before she (fairly or otherwise) claims the peace dividend. A sensibly balanced Cabinet and she might far surpass Theresa May, and win a sufficiently reasonable majority that she outlasts not only Johnson’s tenure but Cameron’s too.

    Feel free to remind me of this next autumn if TSE is right and there’s another leadership vote, but I (gentlemen’s) wager I’m more right than the most scathing predictions are.

    I think she'll lead the Tories into the next election but I do not foresee her producing a large majority in any case.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 25,993

    Leon said:

    HELP

    I have to take a yawning teenage daughter on a one or two day trip out of London

    She's 16, bright, but easily bored, quite likes history

    Any suggestions? Quirkier the better perhaps

    The Farage Monument on Primrose Hill.
    She is already a fierce Leaver. I made sure of that at least. Think she has a shrine to Farage in her new bedroom
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 34,333

    I think Starmer may basically end up having the same problem as Sunak, just with a slightly slower burn.

    I don't really believe he's heart-on-sleeve patriotic and loves the monarchy no matter how many flags he puts up around him.

    It's pretty obvious he's got conventional north London left-wing views at heart - probably similar to @kinabalu - and would go full Woke, flip to a republic and re-join the EU - with the euro on top - if he could.

    People will sniff that insincerity out.

    Yes, you've really got him sussed, haven't you - brilliant. A Labour leader from north London has conventional north London left-wing views - well I never.

    Think you're wrong on the detail anyway. I reckon he does love his country. As for the monarchy, like many of us he probably thinks it's pretty anachronistic but also pretty harmless currently, and there are bigger fish to fry. Europe - he'll play that by ear. And as for going 'full Woke' - I haven't got a clue what that even means.
    He isn't from North London.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 22,323

    Cicero said:

    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Agree with @Casino_Royale in the last thread. Love him or hate him Nigel Farage should clearly be honoured for the contribution he's made to public life.

    Not just honoured, REVERED
    More drunken BS.

    Brits don’t give a xxxx for abstract concepts like (purported) sovereignty if they come with the cost of having to queue for five hours to go on holiday.
    One day, my friend, you too will give thanks for Brexit. And you will whisper the name "Farage" almost like a long lost, much loved girlfriend

    And you will come on this site and ask my forgiveness, and apologise for being so wrong. I shall try to be magnanimous, because I know you are lonely and only talk to your dog
    I think you should not mix PCP, MDMA and booze. It just breaks your brain.

    Back on Planet Earth I think Truss will have the shortest of short honeymoons and then be taken apart as one crisis bangs into another and her incompetence outstrips the ability of the Tory bullshit machine to gloss over her faults.
    This is true. We all (well, except Barty) thought she was crap and mad before, based on y'know, the evidence. She hasn't suddenly become sane and competent.

    It will all end in tears.
    Or I was right and you were 'all' wrong.

    Just as I was when I was a relatively lone voice at the time on this site from the leave side calling for Theresa May's deal to be rejected, which ended in triumph.
    Lol - such a 'triumph' that more people than ever think Brexit was a mistake.

    Seriously though, how do you think the Tories are going to survive the next two years of economic woe?
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,276

    The betting markets had Rishi as favourite!

    And fora time Penny
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 102,738
    Liz Truss refuses to ever allow an indyref2 'on her watch' as PM.

    Good stuff at last from Liz

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/07/30/liz-truss-no-second-scottish-independence-referendum-watch/
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 4,668

    moonshine said:

    Plenty now calling that we are past peak US inflation. Sure, they don’t have the gas issue to contend with and have lost relatively less oil refining capacity. But they did undertake a massive monetary and fiscal expansion in covid, with the Trump cheque as close to textbook helicopter money as you can envisage.

    It’s plausible to think that we’ll also be past the peak in inflation as the last winter frosts thaw. Real question then will be what sort of growth environment do we exit into.

    Can’t help but think those slating Truss’s chances do so from a position of either instinctive anti-Toryism or anti-Brexitism, rather than dispassionate calculation. Personally I can envisage a scenario where she surfs through a very difficult first 6 months with the electorate giving her the benefit of the doubt as a new leader, before she (fairly or otherwise) claims the peace dividend. A sensibly balanced Cabinet and she might far surpass Theresa May, and win a sufficiently reasonable majority that she outlasts not only Johnson’s tenure but Cameron’s too.

    Feel free to remind me of this next autumn if TSE is right and there’s another leadership vote, but I (gentlemen’s) wager I’m more right than the most scathing predictions are.

    I think she'll lead the Tories into the next election but I do not foresee her producing a large
    majority in any case.
    My view is she stands a good chance of winning a large enough majority to last another term. I think the economic cycle is going to play into her hands.

  • LeonLeon Posts: 25,993

    Leon said:

    HELP

    I have to take a yawning teenage daughter on a one or two day trip out of London

    She's 16, bright, but easily bored, quite likes history

    Any suggestions? Quirkier the better perhaps

    The Farage Monument on Primrose Hill.
    You say OUT of London? Otherwise I'd suggest

    https://gunpowderimmersive.com/
    That looks excellent! Never heard of it. She definitely wants to get out of London tomorrow, but for another day this summer - nice one. Ta
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 22,323
    HYUFD said:

    Liz Truss refuses to ever allow an indyref2 'on her watch' as PM.

    Good stuff at last from Liz

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/07/30/liz-truss-no-second-scottish-independence-referendum-watch/

    Oh @HYUFD. You are so predictable. Truss is going to win so you have to find a way to swing wholeheartedly behind her.

    You should stick to your principles man!
  • moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    Plenty now calling that we are past peak US inflation. Sure, they don’t have the gas issue to contend with and have lost relatively less oil refining capacity. But they did undertake a massive monetary and fiscal expansion in covid, with the Trump cheque as close to textbook helicopter money as you can envisage.

    It’s plausible to think that we’ll also be past the peak in inflation as the last winter frosts thaw. Real question then will be what sort of growth environment do we exit into.

    Can’t help but think those slating Truss’s chances do so from a position of either instinctive anti-Toryism or anti-Brexitism, rather than dispassionate calculation. Personally I can envisage a scenario where she surfs through a very difficult first 6 months with the electorate giving her the benefit of the doubt as a new leader, before she (fairly or otherwise) claims the peace dividend. A sensibly balanced Cabinet and she might far surpass Theresa May, and win a sufficiently reasonable majority that she outlasts not only Johnson’s tenure but Cameron’s too.

    Feel free to remind me of this next autumn if TSE is right and there’s another leadership vote, but I (gentlemen’s) wager I’m more right than the most scathing predictions are.

    I think she'll lead the Tories into the next election but I do not foresee her producing a large
    majority in any case.
    My view is she stands a good chance of winning a large enough majority to last another term. I think the economic cycle is going to play into her hands.

    I think we're in deep shit and the economy is in the hole after 12 years of failure. But you may well be right.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 22,323

    The betting markets had Rishi as favourite!

    And fora time Penny
    It's almost like the betting markets are... fallible.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 9,347

    moonshine said:

    Plenty now calling that we are past peak US inflation. Sure, they don’t have the gas issue to contend with and have lost relatively less oil refining capacity. But they did undertake a massive monetary and fiscal expansion in covid, with the Trump cheque as close to textbook helicopter money as you can envisage.

    It’s plausible to think that we’ll also be past the peak in inflation as the last winter frosts thaw. Real question then will be what sort of growth environment do we exit into.

    Can’t help but think those slating Truss’s chances do so from a position of either instinctive anti-Toryism or anti-Brexitism, rather than dispassionate calculation. Personally I can envisage a scenario where she surfs through a very difficult first 6 months with the electorate giving her the benefit of the doubt as a new leader, before she (fairly or otherwise) claims the peace dividend. A sensibly balanced Cabinet and she might far surpass Theresa May, and win a sufficiently reasonable majority that she outlasts not only Johnson’s tenure but Cameron’s too.

    Feel free to remind me of this next autumn if TSE is right and there’s another leadership vote, but I (gentlemen’s) wager I’m more right than the most scathing predictions are.

    I think she'll lead the Tories into the next election but I do not foresee her producing a large majority in any case.
    Yes the conditions for a large Tory majority don’t look to be there. However there is a chance of several outcomes which if Johnson had clung on would have been fewer.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 25,993
    I've never been to Blenheim Palace. That's got to be interesting? An entire palace. UNESCO listed

    Has any PB-er been? Is it impressive enough to placate a slightly snarky 16 year old?
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 4,668
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    HELP

    I have to take a yawning teenage daughter on a one or two day trip out of London

    She's 16, bright, but easily bored, quite likes history

    Any suggestions? Quirkier the better perhaps

    The Farage Monument on Primrose Hill.
    She is already a fierce Leaver. I made sure of that at least. Think she has a shrine to Farage in her new bedroom
    I quite like those chains on the north bank of the Thames near the Captain Kidd where they used to drown pirates in the rising tide. Incorporate it with a history walk along the river from as far West as your legs can last.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 19,636

    What will do for Truss is CoL, if she sorts that out Tory majority is value. I don't think she will and my central forecast is Labour minority government

    Yes, I agree. The odds are out of line with the Betfair odds for the Tories getting a majority (3-1) - it's hard to see Truss staying on if they don't.

    But of course there's always a risk that the actual winner is a fourth person.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 5,036
    edited July 30
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    HELP

    I have to take a yawning teenage daughter on a one or two day trip out of London

    She's 16, bright, but easily bored, quite likes history

    Any suggestions? Quirkier the better perhaps

    Brighton of course. The Royal Pavilion and the adjacent museum for the history. Then the seedy underbelly and all the woke deviancy to stave off the boredom. And the beach, and the pier.....
    Hmm. Good idea, trouble is I know Brighton really well, and I want to have fun too. Tricky...
    You can have fun too; you're not too old. Sit outside the Waggon and Horses, watch all the beautiful and/or interesting people stroll by. Or perch on the terrace of the new Shelter Hall, on the beach, eating good food and drinking whatever. The oyster is your world.
    PS - Wild Flor in Hove is a top class restaurant, and yes I do have a personal interest in it, but it really is superb.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 4,668
    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    HELP

    I have to take a yawning teenage daughter on a one or two day trip out of London

    She's 16, bright, but easily bored, quite likes history

    Any suggestions? Quirkier the better perhaps

    The Farage Monument on Primrose Hill.
    She is already a fierce Leaver. I made sure of that at least. Think she has a shrine to Farage in her new bedroom
    I quite like those chains on the north bank of the Thames near the Captain Kidd where they used to drown pirates in the rising tide. Incorporate it with a history walk along the river from as far West as your legs can last.
    Edit: sorry I thought you said in London.
  • moonshine said:

    Plenty now calling that we are past peak US inflation. Sure, they don’t have the gas issue to contend with and have lost relatively less oil refining capacity. But they did undertake a massive monetary and fiscal expansion in covid, with the Trump cheque as close to textbook helicopter money as you can envisage.

    It’s plausible to think that we’ll also be past the peak in inflation as the last winter frosts thaw. Real question then will be what sort of growth environment do we exit into.

    Can’t help but think those slating Truss’s chances do so from a position of either instinctive anti-Toryism or anti-Brexitism, rather than dispassionate calculation. Personally I can envisage a scenario where she surfs through a very difficult first 6 months with the electorate giving her the benefit of the doubt as a new leader, before she (fairly or otherwise) claims the peace dividend. A sensibly balanced Cabinet and she might far surpass Theresa May, and win a sufficiently reasonable majority that she outlasts not only Johnson’s tenure but Cameron’s too.

    Feel free to remind me of this next autumn if TSE is right and there’s another leadership vote, but I (gentlemen’s) wager I’m more right than the most scathing predictions are.

    I think she'll lead the Tories into the next election but I do not foresee her producing a large majority in any case.
    Yes the conditions for a large Tory majority don’t look to be there. However there is a chance of several outcomes which if Johnson had clung on would have been fewer.
    Completely agree.

    It ranges from tiny Labour majority, to Labour largest party, to Tories largest party to small Tory majority.

    Truss's best is repeating Cameron IMHO. The Red Wall looks to be mostly lost whatever happens.

    How does Truss go down in the Blue Wall, does anyone know?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 25,993
    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    HELP

    I have to take a yawning teenage daughter on a one or two day trip out of London

    She's 16, bright, but easily bored, quite likes history

    Any suggestions? Quirkier the better perhaps

    The Farage Monument on Primrose Hill.
    She is already a fierce Leaver. I made sure of that at least. Think she has a shrine to Farage in her new bedroom
    I quite like those chains on the north bank of the Thames near the Captain Kidd where they used to drown pirates in the rising tide. Incorporate it with a history walk along the river from as far West as your legs can last.
    I LOVE that bit of London, but she REALLY wants to get out of the Smoke
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 5,036
    HYUFD said:

    Liz Truss refuses to ever allow an indyref2 'on her watch' as PM.

    Good stuff at last from Liz

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/07/30/liz-truss-no-second-scottish-independence-referendum-watch/

    Every day, you warm to her just a bit more, don't you? Soon....
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 30,520

    I think Starmer may basically end up having the same problem as Sunak, just with a slightly slower burn.

    I don't really believe he's heart-on-sleeve patriotic and loves the monarchy no matter how many flags he puts up around him.

    It's pretty obvious he's got conventional north London left-wing views at heart - probably similar to @kinabalu - and would go full Woke, flip to a republic and re-join the EU - with the euro on top - if he could.

    People will sniff that insincerity out.

    Yes, you've really got him sussed, haven't you - brilliant. A Labour leader from north London has conventional north London left-wing views - well I never.

    Think you're wrong on the detail anyway. I reckon he does love his country. As for the monarchy, like many of us he probably thinks it's pretty anachronistic but also pretty harmless currently, and there are bigger fish to fry. Europe - he'll play that by ear. And as for going 'full Woke' - I haven't got a clue what that even means.
    Love of country not sufficient though. Has to be in "heart on sleeve" fashion which means ... well god knows but it sounds like something you'd cross the street to avoid.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 25,993

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    HELP

    I have to take a yawning teenage daughter on a one or two day trip out of London

    She's 16, bright, but easily bored, quite likes history

    Any suggestions? Quirkier the better perhaps

    Brighton of course. The Royal Pavilion and the adjacent museum for the history. Then the seedy underbelly and all the woke deviancy to stave off the boredom. And the beach, and the pier.....
    Hmm. Good idea, trouble is I know Brighton really well, and I want to have fun too. Tricky...
    You can have fun too; you're not too old. Sit outside the Waggon and Horses, watch all the beautiful and/or interesting people stroll by. Or perch on the terrace of the new Shelter Hall, on the beach, eating good food and drinking whatever. The oyster is your world.
    PS - Wild Flor in Hove is a top class restaurant, and yes I do have a personal interest in it, but it really is superb.
    You are indeed making it sound quite tempting....
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 5,036

    moonshine said:

    Plenty now calling that we are past peak US inflation. Sure, they don’t have the gas issue to contend with and have lost relatively less oil refining capacity. But they did undertake a massive monetary and fiscal expansion in covid, with the Trump cheque as close to textbook helicopter money as you can envisage.

    It’s plausible to think that we’ll also be past the peak in inflation as the last winter frosts thaw. Real question then will be what sort of growth environment do we exit into.

    Can’t help but think those slating Truss’s chances do so from a position of either instinctive anti-Toryism or anti-Brexitism, rather than dispassionate calculation. Personally I can envisage a scenario where she surfs through a very difficult first 6 months with the electorate giving her the benefit of the doubt as a new leader, before she (fairly or otherwise) claims the peace dividend. A sensibly balanced Cabinet and she might far surpass Theresa May, and win a sufficiently reasonable majority that she outlasts not only Johnson’s tenure but Cameron’s too.

    Feel free to remind me of this next autumn if TSE is right and there’s another leadership vote, but I (gentlemen’s) wager I’m more right than the most scathing predictions are.

    I think she'll lead the Tories into the next election but I do not foresee her producing a large majority in any case.
    Yes the conditions for a large Tory majority don’t look to be there. However there is a chance of several outcomes which if Johnson had clung on would have been fewer.
    Completely agree.

    It ranges from tiny Labour majority, to Labour largest party, to Tories largest party to small Tory majority.

    Truss's best is repeating Cameron IMHO. The Red Wall looks to be mostly lost whatever happens.

    How does Truss go down in the Blue Wall, does anyone know?
    Probably the same as everywhere else, though you may wish to rephrase your question.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 4,668
    Leon said:

    I've never been to Blenheim Palace. That's got to be interesting? An entire palace. UNESCO listed

    Has any PB-er been? Is it impressive enough to placate a slightly snarky 16 year old?

    I went there as an older teenager and enjoyed the day but mainly because it included a trip up the road to the village where my grandmother grew up as one daughter of 5 in a small cottage and the church where she married my grandfather not too many years after he was released from the
    pow camps. Village seemed like it hadn’t changed in those many decades.

    Go for personal history. We’re all the stars of our own novel.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 102,738
    Leon said:

    I've never been to Blenheim Palace. That's got to be interesting? An entire palace. UNESCO listed

    Has any PB-er been? Is it impressive enough to placate a slightly snarky 16 year old?

    Yes I have been, it is very impressive, grander than Buckingham Palace with fantastic grounds plus Maze. It is the UK Versailles
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 42,056
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    I've never been to Blenheim Palace. That's got to be interesting? An entire palace. UNESCO listed

    Has any PB-er been? Is it impressive enough to placate a slightly snarky 16 year old?

    Yes I have been, it is very impressive, grander than Buckingham Palace with fantastic grounds plus Maze. It is the UK Versailles
    Versailles, you say? In that REPUBLIC known as France?
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 5,036
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    HELP

    I have to take a yawning teenage daughter on a one or two day trip out of London

    She's 16, bright, but easily bored, quite likes history

    Any suggestions? Quirkier the better perhaps

    Brighton of course. The Royal Pavilion and the adjacent museum for the history. Then the seedy underbelly and all the woke deviancy to stave off the boredom. And the beach, and the pier.....
    Hmm. Good idea, trouble is I know Brighton really well, and I want to have fun too. Tricky...
    You can have fun too; you're not too old. Sit outside the Waggon and Horses, watch all the beautiful and/or interesting people stroll by. Or perch on the terrace of the new Shelter Hall, on the beach, eating good food and drinking whatever. The oyster is your world.
    PS - Wild Flor in Hove is a top class restaurant, and yes I do have a personal interest in it, but it really is superb.
    You are indeed making it sound quite tempting....
    Thanks. It's what I do now I'm retired.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 19,325
    edited July 30

    I'd like to break it gently to the PB Tories now daring to believe that Queenie can somehow save the party from a complete trouncing at the next GE:

    1. The economy is f*cked.

    2. The population is going to face financial hardship the like of which none of us will have experienced.

    3. The CoL crisis is going to blamed fairly and squarely on this government.

    Nothing the Tories can do will fix it in the next 2-3 years.

    Neither Thatcher nor Churchill would stand a chance of overcoming that enormous electoral hurdle. Truss certainly won't. Even a Labour led by Corbyn would win in those circumstances.

    The Tories are doomed. And rightly so.

    Sorry to ruin your evening, but there it is.

    No you're right. The Conservatives are heading for opposition at the next election and Labour will form the next government.

    It won't be a 1997 meltdown or anything like that but a small overall Labour majority is very likely IMO.

    Con have had a good run but it will be time for a change in 2024/25.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 22,323
    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    I've never been to Blenheim Palace. That's got to be interesting? An entire palace. UNESCO listed

    Has any PB-er been? Is it impressive enough to placate a slightly snarky 16 year old?

    I went there as an older teenager and enjoyed the day but mainly because it included a trip up the road to the village where my grandmother grew up as one daughter of 5 in a small cottage and the church where she married my grandfather not too many years after he was released from the
    pow camps. Village seemed like it hadn’t changed in those many decades.

    Go for personal history. We’re all the stars of our own novel.
    Off to 1066 country for @Leon then!
  • Keir Starmer was brought up in Surrey by a toolmaker and a nurse, I know people are desperate for him to be some kind of ultra woke London elitist but he's really not.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,176

    I'd like to break it gently to the PB Tories now daring to believe that Queenie can somehow save the party from a complete trouncing at the next GE:

    1. The economy is f*cked.

    2. The population is going to face financial hardship the like of which none of us will have experienced.

    3. The CoL crisis is going to blamed fairly and squarely on this government.

    Nothing the Tories can do will fix it in the next 2-3 years.

    Neither Thatcher nor Churchill would stand a chance of overcoming that enormous electoral hurdle. Truss certainly won't. Even a Labour led by Corbyn would win in those circumstances.

    The Tories are doomed. And rightly so.

    Sorry to ruin your evening, but there it is.

    It really isn't even there or thereabouts. I'd love to see some polling on this, but in the absence of same I am thinking most people rightly think their personal economy is fucked by the following factors in this order

    1. Putin
    2. Covid
    3. Brexit

    of which 1 and 2 are shit happens type events, 3 is actually the tories' fault but people recognise that they voted for it. Now, if SKS scored one hundredth of a Blair on the feelgood scale, that would be enough. But things is what they is, and he is such an ineffably dreary self righteous fuckwit that it really is all to play for. He has underperformed to a jaw dropping extent over Borisdammerung, how he will do against a female PM without a criminal record is anybody's guess.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 34,333
    Leon said:

    I've never been to Blenheim Palace. That's got to be interesting? An entire palace. UNESCO listed

    Has any PB-er been? Is it impressive enough to placate a slightly snarky 16 year old?

    It's OK.

    Have you considered Stamford, Lincs.

    Burleigh House is the finest Elizabeth England House in the country, the grounds are lovely, with deer wandering around. The whole town is an architectural gem. There are several good Georgian inns to stay in as it was the overnight stop between London and York. The water meadows are delightful
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 25,994
    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    HELP

    I have to take a yawning teenage daughter on a one or two day trip out of London

    She's 16, bright, but easily bored, quite likes history

    Any suggestions? Quirkier the better perhaps

    The Farage Monument on Primrose Hill.
    She is already a fierce Leaver. I made sure of that at least. Think she has a shrine to Farage in her new bedroom
    I quite like those chains on the north bank of the Thames near the Captain Kidd where they used to drown pirates in the rising tide. Incorporate it with a history walk along the river from as far West as your legs can last.
    I LOVE that bit of London, but she REALLY wants to get out of the Smoke
    Dover? March straight uphill from the railway station to the Western Heights, and the GRand Shaft, if you can catch an open day. https://doverwesternheights.org/calendar/ And the wooden Bronze Age ship in the museum. And a very nice old mediaeval pub in the ancient harbour area. White Horse.

    (That's before you even get to Dover Castle and the White Cliffs and the concrete sound mirrors.)

    Or Portchester Castle and Fort Nelson on the hill above.

    Or Selborne to see Gilbert White's house and a walk up the hanger (steep wooded brae sensu Weald).
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 42,056
    edited July 30
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    HELP

    I have to take a yawning teenage daughter on a one or two day trip out of London

    She's 16, bright, but easily bored, quite likes history

    Any suggestions? Quirkier the better perhaps

    Brighton of course. The Royal Pavilion and the adjacent museum for the history. Then the seedy underbelly and all the woke deviancy to stave off the boredom. And the beach, and the pier.....
    Hmm. Good idea, trouble is I know Brighton really well, and I want to have fun too. Tricky...
    You can have fun too; you're not too old. Sit outside the Waggon and Horses, watch all the beautiful and/or interesting people stroll by. Or perch on the terrace of the new Shelter Hall, on the beach, eating good food and drinking whatever. The oyster is your world.
    PS - Wild Flor in Hove is a top class restaurant, and yes I do have a personal interest in it, but it really is superb.
    You are indeed making it sound quite tempting....
    Volk's Electric Railway! The oldest still-open electric railway, 1883! (that's SEVEN years before the first part of London's Northern Line)
  • Eh, underperformed?

    He turned a 26 point deficit into a 10 point lead? Underperformed, really?
  • Biggest criticism of Starmer remains boring, certainly on that basis he's the best Labour has had since Blair
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 9,347

    Keir Starmer was brought up in Surrey by a toolmaker and a nurse, I know people are desperate for him to be some kind of ultra woke London elitist but he's really not.

    I like him, but you have to admit he’s become part of the London metropolitan elite, surely?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 25,994
    edited July 30
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    I've never been to Blenheim Palace. That's got to be interesting? An entire palace. UNESCO listed

    Has any PB-er been? Is it impressive enough to placate a slightly snarky 16 year old?

    Yes I have been, it is very impressive, grander than Buckingham Palace with fantastic grounds plus Maze. It is the UK Versailles
    I hated it, as a student. A monument to massive arrogance. I was happy to get out of the park and walk along the old Roman Road to the west.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 19,325

    Biggest criticism of Starmer remains boring, certainly on that basis he's the best Labour has had since Blair

    I mean Brown > Milliband (the minor) > Jezza

    There's not a lot of competition to live up to? ;)
  • Keir Starmer was brought up in Surrey by a toolmaker and a nurse, I know people are desperate for him to be some kind of ultra woke London elitist but he's really not.

    I like him, but you have to admit he’s become part of the London metropolitan elite, surely?
    Then Truss has too. But I bet we won't see that written will we?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 22,323
    edited July 30
    IshmaelZ said:

    I'd like to break it gently to the PB Tories now daring to believe that Queenie can somehow save the party from a complete trouncing at the next GE:

    1. The economy is f*cked.

    2. The population is going to face financial hardship the like of which none of us will have experienced.

    3. The CoL crisis is going to blamed fairly and squarely on this government.

    Nothing the Tories can do will fix it in the next 2-3 years.

    Neither Thatcher nor Churchill would stand a chance of overcoming that enormous electoral hurdle. Truss certainly won't. Even a Labour led by Corbyn would win in those circumstances.

    The Tories are doomed. And rightly so.

    Sorry to ruin your evening, but there it is.

    It really isn't even there or thereabouts. I'd love to see some polling on this, but in the absence of same I am thinking most people rightly think their personal economy is fucked by the following factors in this order

    1. Putin
    2. Covid
    3. Brexit

    of which 1 and 2 are shit happens type events, 3 is actually the tories' fault but people recognise that they voted for it. Now, if SKS scored one hundredth of a Blair on the feelgood scale, that would be enough. But things is what they is, and he is such an ineffably dreary self righteous fuckwit that it really is all to play for. He has underperformed to a jaw dropping extent over Borisdammerung, how he will do against a female PM without a criminal record is anybody's guess.
    I don't disagree with you today but in two years time the it'll be 'the economy stupid' and barring an unlikely and unexpected capitulation by Putin, the economy will be well and truly f*cked.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 102,738

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    I've never been to Blenheim Palace. That's got to be interesting? An entire palace. UNESCO listed

    Has any PB-er been? Is it impressive enough to placate a slightly snarky 16 year old?

    Yes I have been, it is very impressive, grander than Buckingham Palace with fantastic grounds plus Maze. It is the UK Versailles
    Versailles, you say? In that REPUBLIC known as France?
    Where Macron lives in the Elysee Palace yes
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 1,081
    Leon said:

    I've never been to Blenheim Palace. That's got to be interesting? An entire palace. UNESCO listed

    Has any PB-er been? Is it impressive enough to placate a slightly snarky 16 year old?

    It's certainly big and impressive but I'm not sure my 16yo self would have appreciated it. Somewhere like Fishbourne Palace is much smaller but the 2,000 year old history is worth more.

    Speaking of Roman history I went to Silchester for the first time a week ago. The actual "town" itself there is nothing really to see except fields and was pretty disappointing. However, the amphitheatre outside the town is fairly intact and you can feel the history. I'm sure many people must have died inside that arena and I felt a sense of that.


    Also a +1 for Portchester. Some other places around the central South I think are worth the visit are:
    - Old Sarum (original town just North of Salisbury)
    - Corfe Castle, Isle of Purbeck (possibly the most inspiring castle in the country despite it being a ruin)
    - Wareham. Quaint old town with beautiful pubs on the river and impressive ramparts around the town built by Alfred the Great
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 17,147
    HYUFD said:

    Liz Truss refuses to ever allow an indyref2 'on her watch' as PM.

    Good stuff at last from Liz

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/07/30/liz-truss-no-second-scottish-independence-referendum-watch/

    So the choice is between the Falange and the BJP.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 23,445

    Keir Starmer was brought up in Surrey by a toolmaker and a nurse, I know people are desperate for him to be some kind of ultra woke London elitist but he's really not.

    I like him, but you have to admit he’s become part of the London metropolitan elite, surely?
    Boris Johnson lived in Islington.
    So does almost all the elite in politics and the media.
    Starmer isn't special in that regard at all.
    It isn't a good thing, mind, being as how it's very difficult to do your job and not live there.
  • As Prime Minister I will put planning back in the hands of local people - and make it easier for renters to get a mortgage.

    #LizForLeader

    lizforleader.co.uk

    https://twitter.com/trussliz/status/1553485799307579392

    She'd abolish housing targets. Well we never meet them anyway so I guess give up?

    She'd make it easier to get a mortgage by using renter history, this was already coming in. Anything about the price of houses Liz, or how to save up whilst spending thousands on rent?

    Anything on getting it easier to build FTTP, or masts? Nope

    If Labour was doing this we'd be saying how empty a platform and vehicle they are.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,176

    Biggest criticism of Starmer remains boring, certainly on that basis he's the best Labour has had since Blair

    Yes. He is not paid to outperform his own predecessors, though, he is paid to outperform the tories.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 30,520

    Keir Starmer was brought up in Surrey by a toolmaker and a nurse, I know people are desperate for him to be some kind of ultra woke London elitist but he's really not.

    I like him, but you have to admit he’s become part of the London metropolitan elite, surely?
    Meaning he has a big job and lives in London?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 22,323

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    I've never been to Blenheim Palace. That's got to be interesting? An entire palace. UNESCO listed

    Has any PB-er been? Is it impressive enough to placate a slightly snarky 16 year old?

    Yes I have been, it is very impressive, grander than Buckingham Palace with fantastic grounds plus Maze. It is the UK Versailles
    Versailles, you say? In that REPUBLIC known as France?
    I think what @HYUFD meant to say is that Versailles is the French attempt at recreating the splendour of Blenheim.

    (Blenheim is a bit meh btw.)
  • IshmaelZ said:

    Biggest criticism of Starmer remains boring, certainly on that basis he's the best Labour has had since Blair

    Yes. He is not paid to outperform his own predecessors, though, he is paid to outperform the tories.
    He is outperforming the Tories as of right now. We can argue if he should be doing better but I am still glad to have voted for him, he did what I voted him to do.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 23,445
    The castration and execution has now appeared on my FB feed.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 42,056
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    I've never been to Blenheim Palace. That's got to be interesting? An entire palace. UNESCO listed

    Has any PB-er been? Is it impressive enough to placate a slightly snarky 16 year old?

    Yes I have been, it is very impressive, grander than Buckingham Palace with fantastic grounds plus Maze. It is the UK Versailles
    Versailles, you say? In that REPUBLIC known as France?
    Where Macron lives in the Elysee Palace yes
    So if we do become a republic, we can still have palaces as tourist attractions?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 25,994
    edited July 30
    AlistairM said:

    Leon said:

    I've never been to Blenheim Palace. That's got to be interesting? An entire palace. UNESCO listed

    Has any PB-er been? Is it impressive enough to placate a slightly snarky 16 year old?

    It's certainly big and impressive but I'm not sure my 16yo self would have appreciated it. Somewhere like Fishbourne Palace is much smaller but the 2,000 year old history is worth more.

    Speaking of Roman history I went to Silchester for the first time a week ago. The actual "town" itself there is nothing really to see except fields and was pretty disappointing. However, the amphitheatre outside the town is fairly intact and you can feel the history. I'm sure many people must have died inside that arena and I felt a sense of that.


    Also a +1 for Portchester. Some other places around the central South I think are worth the visit are:
    - Old Sarum (original town just North of Salisbury)
    - Corfe Castle, Isle of Purbeck (possibly the most inspiring castle in the country despite it being a ruin)
    - Wareham. Quaint old town with beautiful pubs on the river and impressive ramparts around the town built by Alfred the Great
    Absolutely agree on all of those - and a walk around the village of Corfe masy turn up some Purbeck marble rubble form the old industry (fossil snails in limestone).

    The town of Silchester itself is best seen in a dry summer - the town roads magically appear in the parched grass seen from the top of the walls. But yes, there is not a lot to see unless there are escavations going on, and the amphitheatre is the big bonus. I remember once camping just outside the Silchester amphitheatre as a student en route to a hike along the old Roman road to the east.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 4,668
    .
    dixiedean said:

    The castration and execution has now appeared on my FB feed.

    Unfollow whatever ghoul posted that to his timeline…
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 1,081
    Another area worth visiting for good history is the NE of England. Some locations for a 2 or 3 day road trip:

    - York. Obviously - Jorvik etc.
    - Durham, particularly the cathedral and stunning location of it
    - Whitby Abbey (very haunting if you get it in the right weather)
    - Hadrian's Wall (lots of very impressive locations)
    - Holy Island
    - Berwick
    - Alnwick
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 4,668

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    I've never been to Blenheim Palace. That's got to be interesting? An entire palace. UNESCO listed

    Has any PB-er been? Is it impressive enough to placate a slightly snarky 16 year old?

    Yes I have been, it is very impressive, grander than Buckingham Palace with fantastic grounds plus Maze. It is the UK Versailles
    Versailles, you say? In that REPUBLIC known as France?
    Where Macron lives in the Elysee Palace yes
    So if we do become a republic, we can still have palaces as tourist attractions?
    I always thought Hampton Court and its maze would make an excellent paintballing venue.

  • So erh, Rishi was in favour of international law. God help us.

    She really is Johnson 2.0 if this is what she's offering.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 17,147
    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    HELP

    I have to take a yawning teenage daughter on a one or two day trip out of London

    She's 16, bright, but easily bored, quite likes history

    Any suggestions? Quirkier the better perhaps

    The Farage Monument on Primrose Hill.
    She is already a fierce Leaver. I made sure of that at least. Think she has a shrine to Farage in her new bedroom
    I quite like those chains on the north bank of the Thames near the Captain Kidd where they used to drown pirates in the rising tide. Incorporate it with a history walk along the river from as far West as your legs can last.
    I LOVE that bit of London, but she REALLY wants to get out of the Smoke
    Talking of smoke - take a trip on a preserved railway. You can focus on the role of the railways in the industrial revolution, opening up tourism for the masses and other historical stuff. And enjoy the chuffing.
  • How on Earth can Liz Truss tell a private university who to give interviews to?

    Isn't this the sort of thing the Tories oppose, Government intervention?
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 5,036

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    HELP

    I have to take a yawning teenage daughter on a one or two day trip out of London

    She's 16, bright, but easily bored, quite likes history

    Any suggestions? Quirkier the better perhaps

    Brighton of course. The Royal Pavilion and the adjacent museum for the history. Then the seedy underbelly and all the woke deviancy to stave off the boredom. And the beach, and the pier.....
    Hmm. Good idea, trouble is I know Brighton really well, and I want to have fun too. Tricky...
    You can have fun too; you're not too old. Sit outside the Waggon and Horses, watch all the beautiful and/or interesting people stroll by. Or perch on the terrace of the new Shelter Hall, on the beach, eating good food and drinking whatever. The oyster is your world.
    PS - Wild Flor in Hove is a top class restaurant, and yes I do have a personal interest in it, but it really is superb.
    You are indeed making it sound quite tempting....
    Volk's Electric Railway! The oldest still-open electric railway, 1883! (that's SEVEN years before the first part of London's Northern Line)
    Yes, and that. They've spent money on it in Covid times, and it's considerably improved this year - track upgraded, new crossing points etc.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 23,445
    AlistairM said:

    Another area worth visiting for good history is the NE of England. Some locations for a 2 or 3 day road trip:

    - York. Obviously - Jorvik etc.
    - Durham, particularly the cathedral and stunning location of it
    - Whitby Abbey (very haunting if you get it in the right weather)
    - Hadrian's Wall (lots of very impressive locations)
    - Holy Island
    - Berwick
    - Alnwick

    Vindolanda. Arbeia. Chesters. There's so much Roman history if she likes that stuff.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 9,347

    How on Earth can Liz Truss tell a private university who to give interviews to?

    Isn't this the sort of thing the Tories oppose, Government intervention?

    It depends if said university is in receipt of government funding.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 4,668

    So erh, Rishi was in favour of international law. God help us.

    She really is Johnson 2.0 if this is what she's offering.
    I think she’s showing she’s a savvier politician than I and many others gave her credit for. She knows her electorate is in the most important vote, which is always the next vote. Sunak has repeatedly shown himself to be a very naive politician, digging the knife further into Boris when the key constituency he needs to attract all voted for Boris. Because he’s looking to a general election that he likely won’t get to fight.
  • BTW new polling in the Times.

    Labour polls 37% against 38% for Truss

    Labour polls 39% against 37% for Sunak

    I'm not entirely sure if this is VI intention or something else, anyway
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 17,823

    Keir Starmer was brought up in Surrey by a toolmaker and a nurse, I know people are desperate for him to be some kind of ultra woke London elitist but he's really not.

    I like him, but you have to admit he’s become part of the London metropolitan elite, surely?
    This is a narrative created by the Conservative media. There was no greater London Metropolitan Elitist than Boris Johnson.

    Does a Swaffham Elitist count?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 22,323

    BTW new polling in the Times.

    Labour polls 37% against 38% for Truss

    Labour polls 39% against 37% for Sunak

    I'm not entirely sure if this is VI intention or something else, anyway

    I much prefer these sober posts CHB. Just saying.
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 1,081
    Final comment on places to go with a bit of history. This is just a one off location but you can do it very easily on a day trip from London or if you on your way somewhere else and driving past - Bletchley Park. Modern history but they really bring it to life amazingly well. Thoroughly recommended.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 23,445
    moonshine said:

    .

    dixiedean said:

    The castration and execution has now appeared on my FB feed.

    Unfollow whatever ghoul posted that to his timeline…
    I would.
    But almost nowt is from my friends anymore. It's all algorithm driven. And adverts.
    I'd give up if it wasn't for the dwindling numbers of my friends from HS and Uni still using it to communicate.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 57,783

    BTW new polling in the Times.

    Labour polls 37% against 38% for Truss

    Labour polls 39% against 37% for Sunak

    I'm not entirely sure if this is VI intention or something else, anyway

    About that Tory lead bet...
  • RobD said:

    BTW new polling in the Times.

    Labour polls 37% against 38% for Truss

    Labour polls 39% against 37% for Sunak

    I'm not entirely sure if this is VI intention or something else, anyway

    About that Tory lead bet...
    I've always believed if you can bet on it, bet it for Opinium because they're always the closest.

    I don't believe it will last
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 30,520
    GIN1138 said:

    I'd like to break it gently to the PB Tories now daring to believe that Queenie can somehow save the party from a complete trouncing at the next GE:

    1. The economy is f*cked.

    2. The population is going to face financial hardship the like of which none of us will have experienced.

    3. The CoL crisis is going to blamed fairly and squarely on this government.

    Nothing the Tories can do will fix it in the next 2-3 years.

    Neither Thatcher nor Churchill would stand a chance of overcoming that enormous electoral hurdle. Truss certainly won't. Even a Labour led by Corbyn would win in those circumstances.

    The Tories are doomed. And rightly so.

    Sorry to ruin your evening, but there it is.

    No you're right. The Conservatives are heading for opposition at the next election and Labour will form the next government.

    It won't be a 1997 meltdown or anything like that but a small overall Labour majority is very likely IMO.

    Con have had a good run but it will be time for a change in 2024/25.
    Yep. And I'd go further. If despite everything the Cons win again that will be plain absurd and also objectively unhealthy. It will mean they are permagovernment and Labour are permaopposition with only the cast of characters changing. Can't see it myself. Or rather I can but I rate it well below 50% probability.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 6,996
    edited July 30

    So erh, Rishi was in favour of international law. God help us.

    She really is Johnson 2.0 if this is what she's offering.
    I believe in Liz. She's the right candidate in the right place at the right time. To destroy the Tory Party's electoral prospects for a decade to come.

    I will be getting behind her, and advise colleagues in the Tory parliamentary party, and proud and committed campaigners in local constituency offices up and down the country, too, to get behind the northern candidate, the real conservative candidate, rather than a member of the globalised elite. and the iron lady who's Best for Britain.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 102,738

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    I've never been to Blenheim Palace. That's got to be interesting? An entire palace. UNESCO listed

    Has any PB-er been? Is it impressive enough to placate a slightly snarky 16 year old?

    Yes I have been, it is very impressive, grander than Buckingham Palace with fantastic grounds plus Maze. It is the UK Versailles
    Versailles, you say? In that REPUBLIC known as France?
    Where Macron lives in the Elysee Palace yes
    So if we do become a republic, we can still have palaces as tourist attractions?
    He lives in a Palace, visitors can't visit the Elysee as much as they can Buckingham Palace and they don't have the royal wedding, jubille and coronation revenue we do
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 4,668

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    HELP

    I have to take a yawning teenage daughter on a one or two day trip out of London

    She's 16, bright, but easily bored, quite likes history

    Any suggestions? Quirkier the better perhaps

    The Farage Monument on Primrose Hill.
    She is already a fierce Leaver. I made sure of that at least. Think she has a shrine to Farage in her new bedroom
    I quite like those chains on the north bank of the Thames near the Captain Kidd where they used to drown pirates in the rising tide. Incorporate it with a history walk along the river from as far West as your legs can last.
    I LOVE that bit of London, but she REALLY wants to get out of the Smoke
    Talking of smoke - take a trip on a preserved railway. You can focus on the role of the railways in the industrial revolution, opening up tourism for the masses and other historical stuff. And enjoy
    the chuffing.
    This is not what 16 year olds like. As much as I think Brighton a dump, it was a better idea. Teenagers much prefer seeing something like the alley where Phil Daniels gave one to Lesley Ash in Quadrophenia and then having a pint with dad in a bar of disrepute that hasn’t changed since he was a teenager.

    On the way down you could drop off at one of the old witches covens in the ashdown forest if you can find it online.

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 42,056
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    I've never been to Blenheim Palace. That's got to be interesting? An entire palace. UNESCO listed

    Has any PB-er been? Is it impressive enough to placate a slightly snarky 16 year old?

    Yes I have been, it is very impressive, grander than Buckingham Palace with fantastic grounds plus Maze. It is the UK Versailles
    Versailles, you say? In that REPUBLIC known as France?
    Where Macron lives in the Elysee Palace yes
    So if we do become a republic, we can still have palaces as tourist attractions?
    He lives in a Palace, visitors can't visit the Elysee as much as they can Buckingham Palace and they don't have the royal wedding, jubille and coronation revenue we do
    But you were the one who mentioned Versailles earlier.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 23,445
    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    HELP

    I have to take a yawning teenage daughter on a one or two day trip out of London

    She's 16, bright, but easily bored, quite likes history

    Any suggestions? Quirkier the better perhaps

    The Farage Monument on Primrose Hill.
    She is already a fierce Leaver. I made sure of that at least. Think she has a shrine to Farage in her new bedroom
    I quite like those chains on the north bank of the Thames near the Captain Kidd where they used to drown pirates in the rising tide. Incorporate it with a history walk along the river from as far West as your legs can last.
    I LOVE that bit of London, but she REALLY wants to get out of the Smoke
    Talking of smoke - take a trip on a preserved railway. You can focus on the role of the railways in the industrial revolution, opening up tourism for the masses and other historical stuff. And enjoy
    the chuffing.
    This is not what 16 year olds like. As much as I think Brighton a dump, it was a better idea. Teenagers much prefer seeing something like the alley where Phil Daniels gave one to Lesley Ash in Quadrophenia and then having a pint with dad in a bar of disrepute that hasn’t changed since he was a teenager.

    On the way down you could drop off at one of the old witches covens in the ashdown forest if you can find it online.

    16 year olds have heard of Quadrophrenia?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 25,993
    edited July 30
    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    I've never been to Blenheim Palace. That's got to be interesting? An entire palace. UNESCO listed

    Has any PB-er been? Is it impressive enough to placate a slightly snarky 16 year old?

    I went there as an older teenager and enjoyed the day but mainly because it included a trip up the road to the village where my grandmother grew up as one daughter of 5 in a small cottage and the church where she married my grandfather not too many years after he was released from the
    pow camps. Village seemed like it hadn’t changed in those many decades.

    Go for personal history. We’re all the stars of our own novel.
    Yes, I was considering taking her to Hastings for the Abbey and battlefield - and her Great ggggggggggg father William Peverel who is, apparently, listed in the abbey as one of the knights who came over with The Bastard


    I've never been to the battlefield or abbey
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 102,738
    edited July 30
    RobD said:

    BTW new polling in the Times.

    Labour polls 37% against 38% for Truss

    Labour polls 39% against 37% for Sunak

    I'm not entirely sure if this is VI intention or something else, anyway

    About that Tory lead bet...
    Truss is bound to get an initial bounce and probably a poll lead. Johnson in summer 2019, May in summer 2016, Brown in summer 2007 and Major in autumn 1990 all got a bounce and took the lead after entering No 10.

    However sustaining it to win a majority at the next general election would be the bigger challenge, only Major in 1992 managed it
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 17,823
    RobD said:

    BTW new polling in the Times.

    Labour polls 37% against 38% for Truss

    Labour polls 39% against 37% for Sunak

    I'm not entirely sure if this is VI intention or something else, anyway

    About that Tory lead bet...
    I don't think many non-Conservatives on this board are under any disillusion that Truss won't have a honeymoon and have invested accordingly. The question is how long will it last?
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 1,081
    edited July 30
    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    I've never been to Blenheim Palace. That's got to be interesting? An entire palace. UNESCO listed

    Has any PB-er been? Is it impressive enough to placate a slightly snarky 16 year old?

    I went there as an older teenager and enjoyed the day but mainly because it included a trip up the road to the village where my grandmother grew up as one daughter of 5 in a small cottage and the church where she married my grandfather not too many years after he was released from the
    pow camps. Village seemed like it hadn’t changed in those many decades.

    Go for personal history. We’re all the stars of our own novel.
    Yes, I was considering taking her to Hastings for the Abbey and battlefield - and her Great ggggggggggg father William Peverel who is, apparently, listed in the abbey as one of the knights who came over with The Bastard


    I've never been to the battlefield or abbey
    Worth a visit. I went last Summer. It is one of those places where you can feel the history.

    Edit: if you do the SE then Canterbury Cathedral (Thomas Becket's murder location has that sense too) and Dover Castle are also good places to go.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 1,811

    RobD said:

    BTW new polling in the Times.

    Labour polls 37% against 38% for Truss

    Labour polls 39% against 37% for Sunak

    I'm not entirely sure if this is VI intention or something else, anyway

    About that Tory lead bet...
    I don't think many non-Conservatives on this board are under any disillusion that Truss won't have a honeymoon and have invested accordingly. The question is how long will it last?
    True, but I'm sure when she does get that bounce, people on here will be saying "HAHA, you silly lefites thought she wouldn't get a poll bounce!"
  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 634
    edited July 30

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Niiigel, Nig-el Far-age, Everyone Loves Your Cords!

    Niiigel, Ni-gel Far-age, Thanks For Stopping the Hordes!


    Thar's what our smiling, rosy-cheeked children will sing, on this:

    the Feast of Leave.

    And Brexit Day shall ne'er go by,
    From this day to the ending of the world,
    But we in it shall be remembered, with our cheers
    We few, we happy few, we band of Brexiteers

    Fewer and fewer...
    In about 5 years barely anyone will admit to voting Remain. In ten years Remainers will be actively hunted for sport, and the last of them will have to hide in "Remoaner Holes", tiny little alcoves in big old houses in Richmond and Cambridge, as the hardcore Leavers smoke them out with dogs and guns and super laser drones which look like weird grey wasps, or maybe hornets
    We're in the King Edward IV phase of Brexit at the moment.

    The question is whether we get Queen Mary I next or a long Queen Elizabeth I reign who effectively settles it for good.
    King Edward the 'IV'?
    Does that mean Dominic Cummings converts to being a remainer, helps install a Labour/LD coalition government, only for it to collapse after six months upon him getting ambushed by Boris Johnson (who takes office for a second period of time)?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 16,479

    Betfair has hardly moved all day.

    Betfair next prime minister
    1.11 Liz Truss 90%
    10 Rishi Sunak 10%

    Next Conservative leader
    1.11 Liz Truss 90%
    10 Rishi Sunak 10%

    Punters must be looking at the Sundays. There is a small move to Liz Truss.

    Betfair next prime minister
    1.1 Liz Truss 91%
    10.5 Rishi Sunak 10%

    Next Conservative leader
    1.1 Liz Truss 91%
    10.5 Rishi Sunak 10%
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 4,668
    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    I've never been to Blenheim Palace. That's got to be interesting? An entire palace. UNESCO listed

    Has any PB-er been? Is it impressive enough to placate a slightly snarky 16 year old?

    I went there as an older teenager and enjoyed the day but mainly because it included a trip up the road to the village where my grandmother grew up as one daughter of 5 in a small cottage and the church where she married my grandfather not too many years after he was released from the
    pow camps. Village seemed like it hadn’t changed in those many decades.

    Go for personal history. We’re all the stars of our own novel.
    Yes, I was considering taking her to Hastings for the Abbey and battlefield - and her Great ggggggggggg father William Peverel who is, apparently, listed in the abbey as one of the knights who came over with The Bastard


    I've never been to the battlefield or abbey
    Battle is nice but not what I really meant! I was talking more about personal history of a relative that she knows/knew or at most one generation removed from someone she met. I remember at 16 getting a thrill learning that the pub I took my then girlfriend to on a date was the self same pub my old man used to drink in with his mates on a Saturday night as a teenager. Hadn’t changed inside much at all, still had the same built in wooden benches. History comes in many forms.

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 34,333

    Keir Starmer was brought up in Surrey by a toolmaker and a nurse, I know people are desperate for him to be some kind of ultra woke London elitist but he's really not.

    I like him, but you have to admit he’s become part of the London metropolitan elite, surely?
    This is a narrative created by the Conservative media. There was no greater London Metropolitan Elitist than Boris Johnson.

    Does a Swaffham Elitist count?
    I don't think Ms Truss had any connection to Swaffham until she was placed in the safe seat there.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 24,543
    AlistairM said:

    Final comment on places to go with a bit of history. This is just a one off location but you can do it very easily on a day trip from London or if you on your way somewhere else and driving past - Bletchley Park. Modern history but they really bring it to life amazingly well. Thoroughly recommended.

    I slightly preferred it before the injection of lottery cash, but well worth a visit
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,176

    RobD said:

    BTW new polling in the Times.

    Labour polls 37% against 38% for Truss

    Labour polls 39% against 37% for Sunak

    I'm not entirely sure if this is VI intention or something else, anyway

    About that Tory lead bet...
    I don't think many non-Conservatives on this board are under any disillusion that Truss won't have a honeymoon and have invested accordingly. The question is how long will it last?
    I cannot make head or tail of that, nor of the post you are replying to. I doubt there will be much of a rally when Truss gets the gig though. Perhaps a brief blip if she trounces Sir Interesting at PMQs, which is quite possible.
This discussion has been closed.