Truss continues to be a 65% chance in the next PM betting – politicalbetting.com
Truss continues to be a 65% chance in the next PM betting – politicalbetting.com
With Tory members set to receive their ballot packs at the start of August real voting looks will start very soon.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
Sunak needs Truss to collapse in todays debate
Betfair next prime minister
1.54 Liz Truss 65%
2.92 Rishi Sunak 34%
Next Conservative leader
1.53 Liz Truss 65%
2.92 Rishi Sunak 34%
"The large number of unfilled NHS job vacancies is posing a serious risk to patient safety, a report by MPs says.
It found England is now short of 12,000 hospital doctors and more than 50,000 nurses and midwives, calling this the worst workforce crisis in NHS history."
I expect the biggest real terms pay cut in decades will sort that out.
And, yes, the variance between the betting crowd & the non-betting crowd is what makes betting on politics so interesting & potentially profitable.
I think Sunak made a big big mistake by resigning & showing himself to be "disloyal" to Johnson. If he had been patient & stayed in the Cabinet & continued supporting Johnson then he might have won easily, particularly because I think he was pro-Brexit while Truss was pro-Remain.
As it is, Sunak starts with a huge handicap that the approx 35% of Tory members who still support Johnson will never vote for one of the people who they feel "stabbed Johnson in the back".
But his real sin was honesty about the need to raise taxes.
This is a pretty damning graph of the incompetence of the Home Office under May and Patel:
THE SNP has refused to say what it knew about a sexual misconduct allegation against one of the party’s rising stars before he was allowed to become a council leader.
Opposition parties said the SNP would be “sullied” if it failed to address the controversy around Jordan Linden, the newly installed £45,000-a-year leader of North Lanarkshire.
https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/20441814.snp-embroiled-new-sexual-misconduct-scandal/
Curious that Linden withdrew his bid to become an MP just 4 days after the alleged incident….
Yet the debate tonight will be about tax cuts and the Rwanda scheme. It is cloud cuckoo land.
Truss, it must be said, does not offer an obvious route out of this vicious circle. Her Thatcher fixation is unnerving, like a particularly surreal episode of Stars In Their Eyes. From the restyled bouffant to the copycat outfits to the recent lowering of the voice (Thatcher had lessons to deepen and slow her delivery), it is all deeply weird and doesn’t suggest someone entirely at peace with themselves.
https://www.sundaypost.com/fp/liz-truss-thatcher/
That's worth doing, even if you agree the replacement is worse. Which I guess we'll find out in time.
The trouble is that the end of Boris means that the various factions of tory MP's will be squabbling amongst themselves and screaming betrayal.
In all likelihood the new PM will lack authority and neither Sunak nor Truss will be able to get much done.
Strange possibly untrue story on the BBC - "Blue Badges may be refused in some EU countries".
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-62287752
Yet Blue Badge recognition is based on Membership of the International Transport Forum, and as full members we get mutual-recognition, as it shows here. Nothing to do with the EU.
https://www.itf-oecd.org/reciprocal-recognition-parking-badges
There's even a rentaquote from a man at the AA, when his own website says that people with Blue Badges can use the badge anywhere in the EU.
https://www.theaa.com/european-breakdown-cover/driving-in-europe/blue-badge-users
Questionable Govt Guidance seems to be the root of this:
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/blue-badge-using-it-in-the-eu/using-a-blue-badge-in-the-european-union
https://trib.al/dwvcRFT
📺 Sky 501 and YouTube https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1551450786076434434/video/1
https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1551449611839176706
I assume that as the entire cabinet and many in the Tory party all have private medical - who are befitting from the outflux of doctors from the NHS - that they don't know or care.
The issue with Truss is she would be no better.
1. Actually believes what she says
2. Is not bone idle
Put those two together and the damage she could do is pretty sizeable.
She will make BoZo look like a competent, diligent statesman in comparison.
Worth a roll of the dice.
The problem is that the NHS has to run to stand still, and that challenge gets worse every year - more people live for longer with more chronic conditions all of whom require more people treating them for longer with more new (and expensive) drugs coming on the market all the time that make more things treatable too. And so on.
Of course, all those staff want real-terms salary increases each year too (who doesn't?) and so the NHS needs to consume an ever greater proportion of national income each and every year - it probably needs a budget increase of 9-10% every year just to stop it getting worse - just to deliver its decidedly average service.
This isn't sustainable. I don't see any party with answers.
At least 50 have been closed by their hosting Universities.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Criticism_of_Confucius_Institutes
I just hope we do before the NHS strangles the economy. Already, unkind but accurate foreigners describe us as a health service with a country attached.
Has anyone checked Ferrari's bank account to see if they are secretly in the pay of Red Bull and Mercedes?
Their incompetence is just incredible. If I were Carlos Sainz I would be looking for a new drive next year.
As someone whose health situation seems to be deteriorating by the day I am extremely concerned by the headlines about lack of NHS staff. If I stop posting soon it may be that my hands are sufficiently immobilised to prevent me opening the computer; typing is already beyond me, so I'm dictating. And sometimes the result is very odd indeed; I didn't think my accent was that strange!
At time of "writing" I can dictate but have to edit a few words, which sometimes takes a while!
Hi it’s not a 3 way ballot. It’s a separate Yes/No ballot - a Boris ballot - on whether to keep or dismiss Boris. The other ballot with Sunak / Truss on it doesn’t change. So no split votes. If No, Truss hopefully wins; if Yes Boris stays as PM but with new policies & team. https://twitter.com/jonw101961/status/1551140831712641024
The NHS is bad - the mere fact somebody as dedicated as @Foxy is considering his options shows how bad - but it looks to me as though it's anticipating other public services in staffing crises only by a few months. The real story at the moment is between inadequate pay, atrocious working conditions and chronic mismanagement by arrogant fools, all our public services our under strain.
And that's before we get to the team calling him as he was finally passing Perez.
Sometimes I think being a Ferrari fan must be the motorsport equivalent of Greek Hell. Just when the grapes are within reach, they recede. Just as the boulder is near the summit, it rolls all the way back down.
Religions don't fall easily.
.@trussliz will be travelling the country wearing her earrings which cost circa £4.50 from Claire Accessories. Meanwhile…
Rishi visits Teeside in Prada shoes worth £450 and sported £3,500 bespoke suit as he prepared for crunch leadership vote.
https://twitter.com/NadineDorries/status/1551459390502440960
Where do they all come from?
What drives this culture?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62287502
Even if their claims were true, which - to put it mildly - seems unlikely given their record, this would be a matter for the Ukrainian government not them.
I do hope that Putin, Bortnikov, Lavrov, Medvedev Shoigu and Mishustin all shortly suffer the fate they richly deserve - that of Muamar Gaddafi.
Nobody rational compares to them.
That. Is. A. Disgrace.
And by the way, China apologists have still to explain why the Party was exerting the full force of their diplomatic pressure to keep international air routes from Wuhan open just prior to CNY 2020, at a time they were planning unprecedented domestic restrictions for a virus they’d known about for months and already had high confidence was aerosolised.
I don’t know whether Sunak really understands much of this still. He can’t do really, because he showed no interest whatever in his time as Chancellor in improving this country’s resilience to economic warfare (or traditional defence).
Interestingly I am hearing feint glimmers that Xi’s anointment for a third term at the National Congress this winter is not as sure as it looks, with a full on power struggle well underway with plenty of mysterious deaths going on. Zero Covid seems to be acting as the lightning rod for opposition among elites. Low probability it comes to anything but you never know.
Constant comparisons of the NHS to the US is a tired age-old tactic, and the sign of a limited mind.
There are dozens of far better models out there.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/politics/19288104/sun-talktv-rishi-sunak-liz-truss-debate/
If China invades Taiwan, which supplies the chips that run the global economy, we would be plunged into a depression that could dwarf COVID and the GFC and Ukraine combined.
China are without a doubt the 21st centuries greatest threat.
That is another reason to aid Ukraine to defeat Russia. If China see Russia defeated that may aid deterrence for avoiding them invading Taiwan.
Developments in medical science should also be able to reduce the cost of existing treatments, equipment and medicine.
Staff wages only have to keep pace with the rest of the economy.
We're undergoing a demographic transition which is increasing the number of elderly people as a proportion of the population, but that will either reach a new steady state, or we will have bigger problems to worry about.
We have an existing methodology for rationing care according to the resources available based on NICE.
Cleverly today backing Truss's plan to reverse it: "It's absolutely right that we allow people to keep more of the money they have earned."
https://twitter.com/KevinASchofield/status/1551467929966989312
Who is advising US style anticompetitive laws or prohibitions on bargaining for prices?
More competition isn't a US system, it's worth looking at systems all over the Continent to see systems more competitive than either the UK or the USA. It's one area they can do well in. 👍
1) We don't have enough people with suitable experience at every stage of their career to replace the people that are living. and that starts with us not recruiting enough people at University which means we start importing people from elsewhere very early on.
2) As our population gets older diseases and conditions get more complex more time is required to deal with them - and that also requires more people.
I think that, given the demographic transition, we sort of have to accept that a larger proportion of our national wealth will be required to provide healthcare. Absent large increases in efficiency, or large drops in quality of care, there's no escape from that if the proportion of the country aged above 70 grows massively.
The NHS took barely a quarter of government spending a decade ago. It now takes well over a third.
That isn't sustainable.
The best that her most ardent (possibly only) admirer on PB has to say about her is that she's worth 'a roll of the dice'.
A nation reduced to the status of a roulette chip.
E.g.: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allied_war_crimes_during_World_War_II
What differs are scale and organisation.
*) How much of this is going on? Is it the odd solider or unit, or something more widespread?
*) Do the crimes go against the rules of engagement by their side, are the crimes investigated by their side, and are they actively encouraged or condoned?
We cannot know what is going on on the ground; but as the Russians are in Ukrainian territory, their capability and opportunity to commit war crimes are far greater. And I doubt the Russian military or government care much.
To be clear: IMV the Ukrainians are on the side of god and godliness in this conflict. But they will not all be angels - and not all Russians will be devils.
We do spend a lot on healthcare, but isn’t being hale and hearty a central part of enjoying living? The NHS is very efficient by international comparisons. Most of the G7 manage to spend more on healthcare than us and still have thriving economies. Why don’t we spend a little more? It’s not going to destroy the economy. It is going to deliver better outcomes.
We are no longer in Kansas, Toto.
As I said, the investigation of war crimes in Ukrainian territory is nothing to do with Russia. It is the province of first the Ukrainian government and second, the UN.
And since they would not be being committed at all if Russia wasn't there, even that isn't a good enough answer for Russia to dodge responsibility.
Perhaps we should borrow from Pratchett and Gaiman's Good Omens and start referring to her and Mogg as 'the Greasy Johnsonites.'
It would be better if Tories took some ownership of their poor record, rather than blaming others. The unedifying leadership contest is not pointing he way forward for them. We’re staring down the barrel of two years of chaos just when we need some leadership.
Meanwhile the NHS is in trouble, which impact peoples lives. It’s not a religion, it’s more important than that. The NHS represents life and death (or a pain free existence) for many thousands of people. A serious conversation about short and long term remedies is required. We need to get operations done now.