So the message is that for most people post vaccines, the cold is just the sniffles?
If you have COVID and it's just the sniffles, and if one in fifteen people has it, then treat it the same as any other sniffles! 🤦♂️
Huge logic fail, but then you will take any excuse.
That's the mild form - not the bad one. The message is needed to remind people not to spread it. Because others will suffer, some much worse.
Suffering is a part of life.
Isn't a reason to tell 1/15 of the population they ought to be isolating. That's the logic fail.
Telling 1/15 of the population they need to isolate would be more disruptive than the fact that one of a plethora of viruses might give you the sniffles, or hurt those who are immunocompromised.
Much smaller than that. Some will be at home cos they feel awful and some will be out because they don't know they are infected.
It's basically complete arseholery to spread covid if you know you have it or are reasonably sure. That is on Bayesian grounds.
The issue is I don’t think the “right” have the numbers to guarantee their own candidate through, contra some suggestions upthread.
Do the maths yourself.
1. Tugendhat’s votes will divide between Rishi or Mordaunt.
2. Braverman’s votes will divide between Truss or Badenoch.
Then, the problem for Group 2 is that hiding inside Truss and Badenoch’s tallies are various liberals and modernisers (like Gove) who will be tempted by Penny at the final crunch, which stops “the right” getting the numbers.
The ERG, the anti wokests, fantasy tax cutters, the Tory right up and down the land - no candidate in top 2 this time. 🥳
Don't count your chickens! It is quite possible still.
Oh great Leon is back with another new account, this one is called MISTY
Not sure that is accurate. Misty has been around since December and has made over 900 posts. Also the style is very different.
Obviously I could be wrong. Indeed I could be Leon. But in this case I think Misty is probably someone entirely different.
I thought we established last week that we were all Leon?
Some of us are more Leon than others. I'm the side of Leon that's sick of all this foreign travel and just wants to have a quiet night in front of the tv.
After Johnson, Draghi is the next cab off the rank.
News reports say he is resigning.
That would be sad; in the round he’s been a good thing for Italy, given the inability of its political system to throw up anyone even halfway honest and competent.
Another day, another ballot and are we much further forward?
Short answer is no, not really,
The Conservative Parliamentary Party seems to have three distinct factions, the Sunakians, the Mordauntists and the Trussites.
Each seems to have around 120 supporters and if I were being churlish, I'd suggest to the 1922 Committee they amend the rules to allow the top three to all be put to the membership AND for the election to be conducted under STV.
Oh great Leon is back with another new account, this one is called MISTY
Not sure that is accurate. Misty has been around since December and has made over 900 posts. Also the style is very different.
Obviously I could be wrong. Indeed I could be Leon. But in this case I think Misty is probably someone entirely different.
I thought we established last week that we were all Leon?
Some of us are more Leon than others. I'm the side of Leon that's sick of all this foreign travel and just wants to have a quiet night in front of the tv.
I am Leon and so is my wife
My ex-tortoise is Leon. Quite totally unrelated to the fact that he would hump a carpet slipper if he got warm enough in front of the fire.
We are pretty sure Leon does that too.
In fact he’s watched both his slippers with a neighbours tortoise, and enjoyed it.
So the message is that for most people post vaccines, the cold is just the sniffles?
If you have COVID and it's just the sniffles, and if one in fifteen people has it, then treat it the same as any other sniffles! 🤦♂️
Huge logic fail, but then you will take any excuse.
That's the mild form - not the bad one. The message is needed to remind people not to spread it. Because others will suffer, some much worse.
Suffering is a part of life.
Isn't a reason to tell 1/15 of the population they ought to be isolating. That's the logic fail.
Telling 1/15 of the population they need to isolate would be more disruptive than the fact that one of a plethora of viruses might give you the sniffles, or hurt those who are immunocompromised.
Much smaller than that. Some will be at home cos they feel awful and some will be out because they don't know they are infected.
It's basically complete arseholery to spread covid if you know you have it or are reasonably sure. That is on Bayesian grounds.
Bollocks is it arseholery.
Its circulating anyway and its something we're all vaccinated for. If the only symptoms its presenting is "sniffles" then we should treat it to no different to any other cold or cough.
I couldn't give less of a fuck if I pick up a virus I'm vaccinated against while shopping, or if I give it to others who ought to be vaccinated while shopping either.
Anyone who is shielding and staying at home on the other hand, then of course different precautions should exist before visiting them.
This is interesting. https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1547576761105334274 "A partial explanation of why the Russians might have left so many high value targets as sitting ducks for long range HIMARS fire. They really believed the (incredibly fanciful) talk that the S-400 could shoot them down in flight."
Oh great Leon is back with another new account, this one is called MISTY
Not sure that is accurate. Misty has been around since December and has made over 900 posts. Also the style is very different.
Obviously I could be wrong. Indeed I could be Leon. But in this case I think Misty is probably someone entirely different.
I thought we established last week that we were all Leon?
Some of us are more Leon than others. I'm the side of Leon that's sick of all this foreign travel and just wants to have a quiet night in front of the tv.
I am Leon and so is my wife
My ex-tortoise is Leon.
Did it bear a striking resemblance to Liz Truss?
She's not extinct yet!
Sorry to ask, but why do people have them for pets? The morning walk must get a bit tedious.
I have to say that I was personally very relieved to see the end of Suella Braverman in this contest. Like Priti Patel, she has a very emotive and divisive political style which feels very wrong. All the other candidates appear to be somehow more inclusive and welcoming. This isn't to do with their policies, many of which I agree with. There is just something wrong about how they go about explaining themselves, its like they are continuously looking for a fight, rather than trying to persuade people of the merits of their solutions.
Oh great Leon is back with another new account, this one is called MISTY
Not sure that is accurate. Misty has been around since December and has made over 900 posts. Also the style is very different.
Obviously I could be wrong. Indeed I could be Leon. But in this case I think Misty is probably someone entirely different.
I thought we established last week that we were all Leon?
Some of us are more Leon than others. I'm the side of Leon that's sick of all this foreign travel and just wants to have a quiet night in front of the tv.
I am Leon and so is my wife
My ex-tortoise is Leon.
Did it bear a striking resemblance to Liz Truss?
She's not extinct yet!
Sorry to ask, but why do people have them for pets? The morning walk must get a bit tedious.
He did his own walking around the garden. And didn't need much attention between Sept and April. Company for my dad in the garden. Dad missed him when he died.
So the message is that for most people post vaccines, the cold is just the sniffles?
If you have COVID and it's just the sniffles, and if one in fifteen people has it, then treat it the same as any other sniffles! 🤦♂️
Huge logic fail, but then you will take any excuse.
That's the mild form - not the bad one. The message is needed to remind people not to spread it. Because others will suffer, some much worse.
Suffering is a part of life.
Isn't a reason to tell 1/15 of the population they ought to be isolating. That's the logic fail.
Telling 1/15 of the population they need to isolate would be more disruptive than the fact that one of a plethora of viruses might give you the sniffles, or hurt those who are immunocompromised.
Much smaller than that. Some will be at home cos they feel awful and some will be out because they don't know they are infected.
It's basically complete arseholery to spread covid if you know you have it or are reasonably sure. That is on Bayesian grounds.
Bollocks is it arseholery.
Its circulating anyway and its something we're all vaccinated for. If the only symptoms its presenting is "sniffles" then we should treat it to no different to any other cold or cough.
I couldn't give less of a fuck if I pick up a virus I'm vaccinated against while shopping, or if I give it to others who ought to be vaccinated while shopping either.
Anyone who is shielding and staying at home on the other hand, then of course different precautions should exist before visiting them.
The situation of the hospitals shows that you are completely wrong.
The debates will be make or break for Truss. She'll need to avoid being outshone by Badenoch while also looking more like a PM-in-waiting than Mordaunt or Sunak.
True. But, that’s not going to happen. She read her launch address today off her mobile phone! And her team was only sending through half a sentence at a time 😆
I didn’t get any likes for this, but it SO true! 🤣
I just gave you a pity like… 😜
A like is a like is a like as Aunt Gerty used to say. 2343 and counting. I’ve still got them coming in from the last thread, and I was doing my hair whilst posting there.
A better measure would be number of likes divided by number of posts. Feel the quality...
2348 likes divided by 6248 posts = feel the quality, feel the ❤️
Oh great Leon is back with another new account, this one is called MISTY
Not sure that is accurate. Misty has been around since December and has made over 900 posts. Also the style is very different.
Obviously I could be wrong. Indeed I could be Leon. But in this case I think Misty is probably someone entirely different.
I thought we established last week that we were all Leon?
Some of us are more Leon than others. I'm the side of Leon that's sick of all this foreign travel and just wants to have a quiet night in front of the tv.
I am Leon and so is my wife
My ex-tortoise is Leon.
Did it bear a striking resemblance to Liz Truss?
She's not extinct yet!
Sorry to ask, but why do people have them for pets? The morning walk must get a bit tedious.
He did his own walking around the garden. And didn't need much attention between Sept and April. Company for my dad in the garden. Dad missed him when he died.
Ah, that is quite sweet. The morning walk thing was a joke though, just in case anyone wondered.
The debates will be make or break for Truss. She'll need to avoid being outshone by Badenoch while also looking more like a PM-in-waiting than Mordaunt or Sunak.
True. But, that’s not going to happen. She read her launch address today off her mobile phone! And her team was only sending through half a sentence at a time 😆
I didn’t get any likes for this, but it SO true! 🤣
I just gave you a pity like… 😜
A like is a like is a like as Aunt Gerty used to say. 2343 and counting. I’ve still got them coming in from the last thread, and I was doing my hair whilst posting there.
A better measure would be number of likes divided by number of posts. Feel the quality...
2348 likes divided by 6248 posts = feel the quality, feel the ❤️
Not that it applies to you, but I wonder how many likes are deleted for each off topic or flag?
So the message is that for most people post vaccines, the cold is just the sniffles?
If you have COVID and it's just the sniffles, and if one in fifteen people has it, then treat it the same as any other sniffles! 🤦♂️
Huge logic fail, but then you will take any excuse.
That's the mild form - not the bad one. The message is needed to remind people not to spread it. Because others will suffer, some much worse.
Suffering is a part of life.
Isn't a reason to tell 1/15 of the population they ought to be isolating. That's the logic fail.
Telling 1/15 of the population they need to isolate would be more disruptive than the fact that one of a plethora of viruses might give you the sniffles, or hurt those who are immunocompromised.
Much smaller than that. Some will be at home cos they feel awful and some will be out because they don't know they are infected.
It's basically complete arseholery to spread covid if you know you have it or are reasonably sure. That is on Bayesian grounds.
Bollocks is it arseholery.
Its circulating anyway and its something we're all vaccinated for. If the only symptoms its presenting is "sniffles" then we should treat it to no different to any other cold or cough.
I couldn't give less of a fuck if I pick up a virus I'm vaccinated against while shopping, or if I give it to others who ought to be vaccinated while shopping either.
Anyone who is shielding and staying at home on the other hand, then of course different precautions should exist before visiting them.
The situation of the hospitals shows that you are completely wrong.
Hospitals exist to serve sick people. They're doing their job.
We’re probably at least two Conservative leadership elections away from one in which Brexit is agreed to be a disaster in need of remedy. Until that happens, any leader, whether in government or opposition, will simply circle the plughole of inevitable failure like Johnson & May.
It’s remarkable to watch from a distance, without the daily necessity of providing analysis & commentary. Tory candidates are mostly competing to promise ever more fantastical fixes to problems of Tory making, all apparently unaware of who’s been in power for *twelve years*.
Mordaunt remains one of Vote Leave’s most egregious liars. Badenoch professes to care more about statues than people because she believes, rightly, that this will endear her to otherwise racist swathes of the party. Truss is obviously appalling by every available metric.
Sunak looks like a dazed Generation Game contestant insisting that he can spin plates or ice a wedding cake. Tugendhat is the only one truly attuned to the scale of the skip fire his party has become under Johnson but, even as this scuppers his chances, he knows he can’t say so.
And always, at the epicentre of everything awful, right-wing papers. Treating flatulent failures like David Frost & Nick Timothy like sages, denying their readers the vaguest semblance of honest reporting & peddling propaganda now designed solely to delay their own comeuppances.
So the message is that for most people post vaccines, the cold is just the sniffles?
If you have COVID and it's just the sniffles, and if one in fifteen people has it, then treat it the same as any other sniffles! 🤦♂️
Huge logic fail, but then you will take any excuse.
That's the mild form - not the bad one. The message is needed to remind people not to spread it. Because others will suffer, some much worse.
Suffering is a part of life.
Isn't a reason to tell 1/15 of the population they ought to be isolating. That's the logic fail.
Telling 1/15 of the population they need to isolate would be more disruptive than the fact that one of a plethora of viruses might give you the sniffles, or hurt those who are immunocompromised.
Much smaller than that. Some will be at home cos they feel awful and some will be out because they don't know they are infected.
It's basically complete arseholery to spread covid if you know you have it or are reasonably sure. That is on Bayesian grounds.
Bollocks is it arseholery.
Its circulating anyway and its something we're all vaccinated for. If the only symptoms its presenting is "sniffles" then we should treat it to no different to any other cold or cough.
I couldn't give less of a fuck if I pick up a virus I'm vaccinated against while shopping, or if I give it to others who ought to be vaccinated while shopping either.
Anyone who is shielding and staying at home on the other hand, then of course different precautions should exist before visiting them.
The situation of the hospitals shows that you are completely wrong.
Hospitals exist to serve sick people. They're doing their job.
Ever wondered how many people you personally put in hospital?
So the message is that for most people post vaccines, the cold is just the sniffles?
If you have COVID and it's just the sniffles, and if one in fifteen people has it, then treat it the same as any other sniffles! 🤦♂️
Huge logic fail, but then you will take any excuse.
That's the mild form - not the bad one. The message is needed to remind people not to spread it. Because others will suffer, some much worse.
Suffering is a part of life.
Isn't a reason to tell 1/15 of the population they ought to be isolating. That's the logic fail.
Telling 1/15 of the population they need to isolate would be more disruptive than the fact that one of a plethora of viruses might give you the sniffles, or hurt those who are immunocompromised.
Much smaller than that. Some will be at home cos they feel awful and some will be out because they don't know they are infected.
It's basically complete arseholery to spread covid if you know you have it or are reasonably sure. That is on Bayesian grounds.
Bollocks is it arseholery.
Its circulating anyway and its something we're all vaccinated for. If the only symptoms its presenting is "sniffles" then we should treat it to no different to any other cold or cough.
I couldn't give less of a fuck if I pick up a virus I'm vaccinated against while shopping, or if I give it to others who ought to be vaccinated while shopping either.
Anyone who is shielding and staying at home on the other hand, then of course different precautions should exist before visiting them.
As someone triple vaccinated who had it recently, it was not sniffles for me. It was the most flu-like illness I’ve had since, well, the flu 10 years ago, and it completely wiped me out. Utterly miserable I felt. I wouldn’t have wanted to go out with it, given I didn’t want to walk much further than up and down the stairs.
Luckily I did recover from it in about 4 days and it didn’t linger, but I just mention this because it is worth remembering that not everyone is getting it and having a couple of days of snotty noses - it still can cause a really nasty illness that lays you flat.
P vallance We are really unbelievably buggered over climate
Is this moving us a little closer to the 'if the science is right actually although we kept telling you for 30 years there is just time to deal with this is we act now (now being every moment for the last 30 years) actually there isn't, and probably wasn't then either' moment?
I hesitate to point out that the world is increasing not decreasing the amount of CO2 going into the atmosphere, and that decreasing itself makes no material difference - just takes a few years longer.
Global Warming impacts are not an on/off sort of thing where we either avoid them and everything is fine, or we don't, and we wasted effort trying to do so. They are on a sliding scale. As there is more warming the impacts will continue to get worse. So, even if we fail to limit warming to 1.5C, there is still value in limiting warming to 2C (and similarly 3C instead of 4C). There is even value in slowing down the rate of warming, as it gives us more time to adapt to live with the changed climate.
So, in all circumstances, there is a benefit to doing as much as we can, as soon as we can. It would always have been better to start doing things yesterday (or twenty years ago), but it's still better to start doing things today, rather than next year, or next decade.
One thing I dislike is the dishonesty in how some of this is debated.
Eg the talk of 1.5, you'd assume that meant 1.5 up from now, or from 1990 (which was the baseline of a lot of measures) etc but no, it's from the start of the industrial revolution. Oh and were "already at" 1.2
So we are talking about potentially 0.3 change from now? Or if it goes to 2, then 0.8 change from now? Sounds very different when you phrase it like that.
You'd only assume that if you had been paying zero attention to the issue until today, and still didn't really think about it.
Why would you keep resetting it to mean warming from now? (unless you wanted to be dishonest...)
Oh great Leon is back with another new account, this one is called MISTY
Not sure that is accurate. Misty has been around since December and has made over 900 posts. Also the style is very different.
Obviously I could be wrong. Indeed I could be Leon. But in this case I think Misty is probably someone entirely different.
I thought we established last week that we were all Leon?
Some of us are more Leon than others. I'm the side of Leon that's sick of all this foreign travel and just wants to have a quiet night in front of the tv.
I am Leon and so is my wife
My ex-tortoise is Leon.
Did it bear a striking resemblance to Liz Truss?
She's not extinct yet!
Sorry to ask, but why do people have them for pets? The morning walk must get a bit tedious.
He did his own walking around the garden. And didn't need much attention between Sept and April. Company for my dad in the garden. Dad missed him when he died.
Ah, that is quite sweet. The morning walk thing was a joke though, just in case anyone wondered.
Not at all: always better to assume that an unfamiliar pet needs a daily walk than the opposite.
The debates will be make or break for Truss. She'll need to avoid being outshone by Badenoch while also looking more like a PM-in-waiting than Mordaunt or Sunak.
True. But, that’s not going to happen. She read her launch address today off her mobile phone! And her team was only sending through half a sentence at a time 😆
I didn’t get any likes for this, but it SO true! 🤣
I just gave you a pity like… 😜
A like is a like is a like as Aunt Gerty used to say. 2343 and counting. I’ve still got them coming in from the last thread, and I was doing my hair whilst posting there.
A better measure would be number of likes divided by number of posts. Feel the quality...
2348 likes divided by 6248 posts = feel the quality, feel the ❤️
The debates will be make or break for Truss. She'll need to avoid being outshone by Badenoch while also looking more like a PM-in-waiting than Mordaunt or Sunak.
True. But, that’s not going to happen. She read her launch address today off her mobile phone! And her team was only sending through half a sentence at a time 😆
I didn’t get any likes for this, but it SO true! 🤣
I just gave you a pity like… 😜
A like is a like is a like as Aunt Gerty used to say. 2343 and counting. I’ve still got them coming in from the last thread, and I was doing my hair whilst posting there.
A better measure would be number of likes divided by number of posts. Feel the quality...
2348 likes divided by 6248 posts = feel the quality, feel the ❤️
Not that it applies to you, but I wonder how many likes are deleted for each off topic or flag?
That's me screwed, Malcolm has given me thousands!
Oh great Leon is back with another new account, this one is called MISTY
Not sure that is accurate. Misty has been around since December and has made over 900 posts. Also the style is very different.
Obviously I could be wrong. Indeed I could be Leon. But in this case I think Misty is probably someone entirely different.
I thought we established last week that we were all Leon?
Some of us are more Leon than others. I'm the side of Leon that's sick of all this foreign travel and just wants to have a quiet night in front of the tv.
I am Leon and so is my wife
My ex-tortoise is Leon.
Did it bear a striking resemblance to Liz Truss?
She's not extinct yet!
But not going to be much use as PM if she has to be put in a box of straw for the winter....
I think this shows you to be a thoroughly decent human being HB. Clearly she stands the best chance of beating the Labour Party and you still are in favour because you think she is the best one of the lot. Very admirable.
We’re probably at least two Conservative leadership elections away from one in which Brexit is agreed to be a disaster in need of remedy. Until that happens, any leader, whether in government or opposition, will simply circle the plughole of inevitable failure like Johnson & May.
It’s remarkable to watch from a distance, without the daily necessity of providing analysis & commentary. Tory candidates are mostly competing to promise ever more fantastical fixes to problems of Tory making, all apparently unaware of who’s been in power for *twelve years*.
Mordaunt remains one of Vote Leave’s most egregious liars. Badenoch professes to care more about statues than people because she believes, rightly, that this will endear her to otherwise racist swathes of the party. Truss is obviously appalling by every available metric.
Sunak looks like a dazed Generation Game contestant insisting that he can spin plates or ice a wedding cake. Tugendhat is the only one truly attuned to the scale of the skip fire his party has become under Johnson but, even as this scuppers his chances, he knows he can’t say so.
And always, at the epicentre of everything awful, right-wing papers. Treating flatulent failures like David Frost & Nick Timothy like sages, denying their readers the vaguest semblance of honest reporting & peddling propaganda now designed solely to delay their own comeuppances.
Oh great Leon is back with another new account, this one is called MISTY
Not sure that is accurate. Misty has been around since December and has made over 900 posts. Also the style is very different.
Obviously I could be wrong. Indeed I could be Leon. But in this case I think Misty is probably someone entirely different.
I thought we established last week that we were all Leon?
Some of us are more Leon than others. I'm the side of Leon that's sick of all this foreign travel and just wants to have a quiet night in front of the tv.
I am Leon and so is my wife
My ex-tortoise is Leon.
Did it bear a striking resemblance to Liz Truss?
She's not extinct yet!
But not going to be much use as PM if she has to be put in a box of straw for the winter....
Full marks! That has to be the funniest post in a while.
So the message is that for most people post vaccines, the cold is just the sniffles?
If you have COVID and it's just the sniffles, and if one in fifteen people has it, then treat it the same as any other sniffles! 🤦♂️
Huge logic fail, but then you will take any excuse.
That's the mild form - not the bad one. The message is needed to remind people not to spread it. Because others will suffer, some much worse.
Suffering is a part of life.
Isn't a reason to tell 1/15 of the population they ought to be isolating. That's the logic fail.
Telling 1/15 of the population they need to isolate would be more disruptive than the fact that one of a plethora of viruses might give you the sniffles, or hurt those who are immunocompromised.
Much smaller than that. Some will be at home cos they feel awful and some will be out because they don't know they are infected.
It's basically complete arseholery to spread covid if you know you have it or are reasonably sure. That is on Bayesian grounds.
Bollocks is it arseholery.
Its circulating anyway and its something we're all vaccinated for. If the only symptoms its presenting is "sniffles" then we should treat it to no different to any other cold or cough.
I couldn't give less of a fuck if I pick up a virus I'm vaccinated against while shopping, or if I give it to others who ought to be vaccinated while shopping either.
Anyone who is shielding and staying at home on the other hand, then of course different precautions should exist before visiting them.
The situation of the hospitals shows that you are completely wrong.
Hospitals exist to serve sick people. They're doing their job.
Ever wondered how many people you personally put in hospital?
NEW: I understand there is a ‘moderate caucus’ of MPs who deliberately are not declaring how they vote.
Before each round they organise, and decide who to back in order to keep the free market right candidates - at this stage Liz and Kemi - off the ballot.
Not going to work. Liz or Kemi will top the poll in the final 3 once the other gets knocked out (do the maths), leaving Sunak and Mordaunt to scrap for second. At the moment it looks like Sunak is likely to beat Mordaunt to second, which is why its baffling that Mordaunt is such a heavy favourite to win the whole thing. The value is in Truss and Kemi (though looks like Truss will pip Kemi in the round of 4, unless Kemi hoovers up almost all of Braverman's backers, which she might).
As I said earlier, this weekend's televised hustings are going to play a huge part and frankly Truss, so far, has been dreadful in front of the cameras and I just cannot see her winning through to the last 2 without a miracle transformation
If you're a backer of Badenoch or Braverman though, if they both go out who would their backers go to if not Truss? I certainly think it's possible that Badenoch overtakes her on Monday and she goes out and Badenoch gets to the run-off, but at the moment that's not at all clear.
Oh great Leon is back with another new account, this one is called MISTY
Not sure that is accurate. Misty has been around since December and has made over 900 posts. Also the style is very different.
Obviously I could be wrong. Indeed I could be Leon. But in this case I think Misty is probably someone entirely different.
I thought we established last week that we were all Leon?
Some of us are more Leon than others. I'm the side of Leon that's sick of all this foreign travel and just wants to have a quiet night in front of the tv.
I am Leon and so is my wife
My ex-tortoise is Leon.
Did it bear a striking resemblance to Liz Truss?
She's not extinct yet!
But not going to be much use as PM if she has to be put in a box of straw for the winter....
I don't know. It would have been very useful to be able to do that with at least one predecessor.
I reckon Braverman's vote transfers over to Badenoch and ahead of Truss.
Truss did better to expectation this round than Badenoch.
I don't think Badenoch gets sufficient transfer to overtake Truss.
I agree, actually, Badenoch didn't do well enough. She needed to be within 5-6 votes, and 15 votes is probably too much.
Yes: which is good news for Truss, as she inherits most of Badenoch's votes.
Looking at the odds, I think:
(1) As Sunak loses in the members vote against everyone, he is still far too short (2) Sunak v Truss is perfectly possible, if TT's vote splits relatively evenly between Sunak and Morduant. In which case, Truss is the winner. She's probably a small buy. (3) The likeliest outcome is still that Morduant makes the final two, and so she's still a small buy. (4) Badenoch's odds are about right - absent an amazing performance in the debates - because it's tough for her to overtake Truss. And even if she did overtake her, I don't see enough of Truss's support going to her to make the final two.
I've laid Rishi into the red this afternoon.
And you've already been laying Truss, so you must feel pretty confident about Mordaunt?
I've got £16.50 on Truss as next PM with Hills at 100/1, so I have lots of cover to lay her.
So the message is that for most people post vaccines, the cold is just the sniffles?
If you have COVID and it's just the sniffles, and if one in fifteen people has it, then treat it the same as any other sniffles! 🤦♂️
Huge logic fail, but then you will take any excuse.
That's the mild form - not the bad one. The message is needed to remind people not to spread it. Because others will suffer, some much worse.
Suffering is a part of life.
Isn't a reason to tell 1/15 of the population they ought to be isolating. That's the logic fail.
Telling 1/15 of the population they need to isolate would be more disruptive than the fact that one of a plethora of viruses might give you the sniffles, or hurt those who are immunocompromised.
Much smaller than that. Some will be at home cos they feel awful and some will be out because they don't know they are infected.
It's basically complete arseholery to spread covid if you know you have it or are reasonably sure. That is on Bayesian grounds.
Bollocks is it arseholery.
Its circulating anyway and its something we're all vaccinated for. If the only symptoms its presenting is "sniffles" then we should treat it to no different to any other cold or cough.
I couldn't give less of a fuck if I pick up a virus I'm vaccinated against while shopping, or if I give it to others who ought to be vaccinated while shopping either.
Anyone who is shielding and staying at home on the other hand, then of course different precautions should exist before visiting them.
As someone triple vaccinated who had it recently, it was not sniffles for me. It was the most flu-like illness I’ve had since, well, the flu 10 years ago, and it completely wiped me out. Utterly miserable I felt. I wouldn’t have wanted to go out with it, given I didn’t want to walk much further than up and down the stairs.
Luckily I did recover from it in about 4 days and it didn’t linger, but I just mention this because it is worth remembering that not everyone is getting it and having a couple of days of snotty noses - it still can cause a really nasty illness that lays you flat.
When the One Great Scorer comes And writes against Bart's name
We are going to defile ourselves with unseemly mirth
But only in private, I have some rough diamond, not look upon his like again material pre scripted.
NEW: I understand there is a ‘moderate caucus’ of MPs who deliberately are not declaring how they vote.
Before each round they organise, and decide who to back in order to keep the free market right candidates - at this stage Liz and Kemi - off the ballot.
Not going to work. Liz or Kemi will top the poll in the final 3 once the other gets knocked out (do the maths), leaving Sunak and Mordaunt to scrap for second. At the moment it looks like Sunak is likely to beat Mordaunt to second, which is why its baffling that Mordaunt is such a heavy favourite to win the whole thing. The value is in Truss and Kemi (though looks like Truss will pip Kemi in the round of 4, unless Kemi hoovers up almost all of Braverman's backers, which she might).
As I said earlier, this weekend's televised hustings are going to play a huge part and frankly Truss, so far, has been dreadful in front of the cameras and I just cannot see her winning through to the last 2 without a miracle transformation
If you're a backer of Badenoch or Braverman though, if they both go out who would their backers go to if not Truss? I certainly think it's possible that Badenoch overtakes her on Monday and she goes out and Badenoch gets to the run-off, but at the moment that's not at all clear.
Some Badenochers will prefer Mordaunt or even Rishi vs Truss.
I have to say that I was personally very relieved to see the end of Suella Braverman in this contest. Like Priti Patel, she has a very emotive and divisive political style which feels very wrong. All the other candidates appear to be somehow more inclusive and welcoming. This isn't to do with their policies, many of which I agree with. There is just something wrong about how they go about explaining themselves, its like they are continuously looking for a fight, rather than trying to persuade people of the merits of their solutions.
The strange thing is that Suella Braverman is utterly lovely in person.
We’re probably at least two Conservative leadership elections away from one in which Brexit is agreed to be a disaster in need of remedy. Until that happens, any leader, whether in government or opposition, will simply circle the plughole of inevitable failure like Johnson & May.
It’s remarkable to watch from a distance, without the daily necessity of providing analysis & commentary. Tory candidates are mostly competing to promise ever more fantastical fixes to problems of Tory making, all apparently unaware of who’s been in power for *twelve years*.
Mordaunt remains one of Vote Leave’s most egregious liars. Badenoch professes to care more about statues than people because she believes, rightly, that this will endear her to otherwise racist swathes of the party. Truss is obviously appalling by every available metric.
Sunak looks like a dazed Generation Game contestant insisting that he can spin plates or ice a wedding cake. Tugendhat is the only one truly attuned to the scale of the skip fire his party has become under Johnson but, even as this scuppers his chances, he knows he can’t say so.
And always, at the epicentre of everything awful, right-wing papers. Treating flatulent failures like David Frost & Nick Timothy like sages, denying their readers the vaguest semblance of honest reporting & peddling propaganda now designed solely to delay their own comeuppances.
I have to say that I was personally very relieved to see the end of Suella Braverman in this contest. Like Priti Patel, she has a very emotive and divisive political style which feels very wrong. All the other candidates appear to be somehow more inclusive and welcoming. This isn't to do with their policies, many of which I agree with. There is just something wrong about how they go about explaining themselves, its like they are continuously looking for a fight, rather than trying to persuade people of the merits of their solutions.
The strange thing is that Suella Braverman is utterly lovely in person.
I have heard that from someone who has met her a few times
We’re probably at least two Conservative leadership elections away from one in which Brexit is agreed to be a disaster in need of remedy. Until that happens, any leader, whether in government or opposition, will simply circle the plughole of inevitable failure like Johnson & May.
It’s remarkable to watch from a distance, without the daily necessity of providing analysis & commentary. Tory candidates are mostly competing to promise ever more fantastical fixes to problems of Tory making, all apparently unaware of who’s been in power for *twelve years*.
Mordaunt remains one of Vote Leave’s most egregious liars. Badenoch professes to care more about statues than people because she believes, rightly, that this will endear her to otherwise racist swathes of the party. Truss is obviously appalling by every available metric.
Sunak looks like a dazed Generation Game contestant insisting that he can spin plates or ice a wedding cake. Tugendhat is the only one truly attuned to the scale of the skip fire his party has become under Johnson but, even as this scuppers his chances, he knows he can’t say so.
And always, at the epicentre of everything awful, right-wing papers. Treating flatulent failures like David Frost & Nick Timothy like sages, denying their readers the vaguest semblance of honest reporting & peddling propaganda now designed solely to delay their own comeuppances.
The debates will be make or break for Truss. She'll need to avoid being outshone by Badenoch while also looking more like a PM-in-waiting than Mordaunt or Sunak.
True. But, that’s not going to happen. She read her launch address today off her mobile phone! And her team was only sending through half a sentence at a time 😆
I didn’t get any likes for this, but it SO true! 🤣
I just gave you a pity like… 😜
A like is a like is a like as Aunt Gerty used to say. 2343 and counting. I’ve still got them coming in from the last thread, and I was doing my hair whilst posting there.
A better measure would be number of likes divided by number of posts. Feel the quality...
2348 likes divided by 6248 posts = feel the quality, feel the ❤️
I see yours and raise you 5568 likes divided by 8244 posts...
I agree with that. She has a better chance than Sunak. But it does look like Mordaunt to me. Penny Mordaunt our next PM! Talk about simple twists of fate. All great for Labour imo. Truss the dream but it's win win really.
Oh great Leon is back with another new account, this one is called MISTY
Not sure that is accurate. Misty has been around since December and has made over 900 posts. Also the style is very different.
Obviously I could be wrong. Indeed I could be Leon. But in this case I think Misty is probably someone entirely different.
I thought we established last week that we were all Leon?
Some of us are more Leon than others. I'm the side of Leon that's sick of all this foreign travel and just wants to have a quiet night in front of the tv.
I am Leon and so is my wife
My ex-tortoise is Leon.
Did it bear a striking resemblance to Liz Truss?
She's not extinct yet!
Sorry to ask, but why do people have them for pets? The morning walk must get a bit tedious.
I have to say that I was personally very relieved to see the end of Suella Braverman in this contest. Like Priti Patel, she has a very emotive and divisive political style which feels very wrong. All the other candidates appear to be somehow more inclusive and welcoming. This isn't to do with their policies, many of which I agree with. There is just something wrong about how they go about explaining themselves, its like they are continuously looking for a fight, rather than trying to persuade people of the merits of their solutions.
The strange thing is that Suella Braverman is utterly lovely in person.
I have heard that from someone who has met her a few times
Part of the cognitive dissonance that goes on on the right.
Small town America works, even with a small state philosophy, because other factors make people nice towards each other.
Nice right wingers can be delightful, and if everyone was nice, we wouldn't need rules, fiscal transfers or whatnot. It was the thing TMnotyetPM noted in her "Nasty Party" speech.
Unfortunately, some people back the political right because they're selfish greedy scumbags.
Comments
It's basically complete arseholery to spread covid if you know you have it or are reasonably sure. That is on Bayesian grounds.
In fact he’s watched both his slippers with a neighbours tortoise, and enjoyed it.
Its circulating anyway and its something we're all vaccinated for. If the only symptoms its presenting is "sniffles" then we should treat it to no different to any other cold or cough.
I couldn't give less of a fuck if I pick up a virus I'm vaccinated against while shopping, or if I give it to others who ought to be vaccinated while shopping either.
Anyone who is shielding and staying at home on the other hand, then of course different precautions should exist before visiting them.
https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1547576761105334274
"A partial explanation of why the Russians might have left so many high value targets as sitting ducks for long range HIMARS fire. They really believed the (incredibly fanciful) talk that the S-400 could shoot them down in flight."
We’re probably at least two Conservative leadership elections away from one in which Brexit is agreed to be a disaster in need of remedy. Until that happens, any leader, whether in government or opposition, will simply circle the plughole of inevitable failure like Johnson & May.
It’s remarkable to watch from a distance, without the daily necessity of providing analysis & commentary. Tory candidates are mostly competing to promise ever more fantastical fixes to problems of Tory making, all apparently unaware of who’s been in power for *twelve years*.
Mordaunt remains one of Vote Leave’s most egregious liars. Badenoch professes to care more about statues than people because she believes, rightly, that this will endear her to otherwise racist swathes of the party. Truss is obviously appalling by every available metric.
Sunak looks like a dazed Generation Game contestant insisting that he can spin plates or ice a wedding cake. Tugendhat is the only one truly attuned to the scale of the skip fire his party has become under Johnson but, even as this scuppers his chances, he knows he can’t say so.
And always, at the epicentre of everything awful, right-wing papers. Treating flatulent failures like David Frost & Nick Timothy like sages, denying their readers the vaguest semblance of honest reporting & peddling propaganda now designed solely to delay their own comeuppances.
https://twitter.com/mrjamesob/status/1547605103728766976?s=12
Luckily I did recover from it in about 4 days and it didn’t linger, but I just mention this because it is worth remembering that not everyone is getting it and having a couple of days of snotty noses - it still can cause a really nasty illness that lays you flat.
Why would you keep resetting it to mean warming from now? (unless you wanted to be dishonest...)
I bet he is a secret leaver.
And writes against Bart's name
We are going to defile ourselves with unseemly mirth
But only in private, I have some rough diamond, not look upon his like again material pre scripted.
One Nation are a very tough crowd for a candidate like Kemi.
There’s a decent anti-Truss faction.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.160663234
I'm gonna need some assistance.
Provided she doesn't blow it.
Small town America works, even with a small state philosophy, because other factors make people nice towards each other.
Nice right wingers can be delightful, and if everyone was nice, we wouldn't need rules, fiscal transfers or whatnot. It was the thing TMnotyetPM noted in her "Nasty Party" speech.
Unfortunately, some people back the political right because they're selfish greedy scumbags.
1) England looks scorched
2) Penny is not running away with this.