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The second round vote – politicalbetting.com
The second round vote – politicalbetting.com
? TORY LEADERSHIP RESULTS – ROUND TWORishi Sunak – 101Penny Mordaunt – 83Liz Truss – 64Kemi Badenoch – 49Tom Tugendhat – 32Suella Braverman – 27 (OUT)
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Badenoch +6
Mordaunt +4
Sunak +2
Braverman -3
Tugendhat -13
Tugendhat has to jump on that. Decent for Truss, but Mordaunt still heading for No 10 I think.
I reckon Braverman's vote transfers over to Badenoch and ahead of Truss.
Members of the 1922 committee have decided to have three ballots on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday next week after #PMQs. #ToryLeadershipRace
https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1547576982988156933
If Truss can get more transfers from Braverman and Badenoch than Mordaunt can, then she might not make the final 3.
There is no path to victory for TT. Carrying on just becomes more humiliating.
1.78 Penny Mordaunt 56%
4.2 Rishi Sunak 24%
6 Liz Truss 17%
23 Kemi Badenoch 4%
140 Tom Tugendhat
250 Dominic Raab
Smashes Rishi to bits and becomes PM.
But, if they break for Badenoch, then it's potentially a toss-up which of Truss and Badenoch make the final three.
TT's votes will presumably got to mostly to Sunak and Mordaunt in some combo, either after the next round or in the next round if he drops out.
Edit: Also, the direction of TT's vote could well determine whether Sunak makes it or not. Big transfer and he's home and dry. But if many go to Mordaunt then he could, potentially, be squeezed.
They are not the changes from Round 1.
I don't think Badenoch gets sufficient transfer to overtake Truss.
Braverman only has 27 votes and Truss is 15 in the lead and should probably get some of Braverman's votes. Even if Kemi takes the majority of them, she still likely wouldn't get ahead of Truss.
More plausible is Braverman and Badenoch can get Truss ahead of Mordaunt, but even that will still be a challenge.
Truss +14
Sunak +13
Badenoch +9
Tugendhat -5
Braverman -5
Sunak probably should pick up enough transfers to make the final two, but he's not going to be way out in front.
Badenoch would have to win over some supporters from the front three with a good performance in the debate to stay in the contest.
I wonder who Tissue Price and Tugendhat will support when they withdraw?
Fuck off tom tugwank
3 Profit.
Nice day
1.77 Penny Mordaunt 56%
4.5 Rishi Sunak 22%
6 Liz Truss 17%
27 Kemi Badenoch
110 Tom Tugendhat
240 Dominic Raab
Incidentally I remember where I heard “Mordaunt” before. There was a 48 gun Ship-of-The-Line in the 17th century called HMS Mordaunt. Which means I think we might have a final two of Risky and The Fourth Rate.
It doesn't work like that.
She is going to have to get some Sunak supporters to switch.
Sunak supporters need to wake up and realise that Truss will be a disaster and they have to get Penny into the Final.
I’m very unconvinced.
It’s Mordaunt vs AN other right now. I’m still not convinced Rishi will make it.
Interviewer: Is there any issue other than cost of living?
Michael Gove (Kemi's team) and Gavin Williamson (Rishi's team) look well placed to shape who makes the final two on Tuesday night when Kemi Badenoch's votes are up for grabs. My guess: Sunak's team will try to engineer Truss, not Mordaunt, into the final two. #ToryLeadershipRace
Its Sunak or Kemi vs Mordaunt i think
If it's clear to the more centrist MPs that (eg) Truss would almost certainly beat Sunak in a vote of the membership, dare they risk that ?
I don't think you can assume that anyone's existing votes are 100% solid going into the next round.
1.74 Penny Mordaunt 57%
4.5 Rishi Sunak 22%
6.2 Liz Truss 16%
28 Kemi Badenoch
300 Tom Tugendhat
Sunak
Mordaunt
Truss or Badenoch
Then Mordaunt needs to be able to clear 119 herself. If she doesn't, I think the other two make sure she goes out because of the YouGov poll.
Conversely if he endorses Sunak, then I think we’re looking at PM Truss.
We could have told her that much last Sunday! 🤭
But the bit the TV commentators are not telling us is the BIG BIG change. Last Sunday it looked like Truss into last 2 possibly Penny, now it’s Penny in last 2 possibly Truss. The week has gone differently than expected. There is no appetite on the right for Truss - and not enough fear on right of Penny or Sunak. 🥳
I don't understand why they kept it at 30.
At least Ben Wallace has self awareness
Enough. The Tories REALLY need to steer away from posh white men this time it they are to have any chance of winning rhe GE. And TiT won’t admit defeat.
Mordaunt is still 36 votes short. Given that Rishi still needs 18, then between them they need to be taking a lot of votes from the candidates well to their right.
Rishi/Truss seems the most likely - although more complex Tory politics might say differently.
The only vote pool to be redistributed now is Braverman which could go by a clear majority to her . This would then allow her to say there’s new momentum and she would be very close to Mordaunt .
I really think TT needs to withdraw . I’d expect quite a few of his votes to go to Mordaunt.
Today I feel was a bad result for Penny after the success she had yesterday, plus who was eliminated yesterday. With Hunt and Zahawi eliminated and Penny supposedly having "the big mo" I'd have expected Penny to have increased her lead over Truss, but it didn't increase.
Penny might get some from Tugendhat. Truss will get more from Badenoch and Braverman I expect.
Very plausible that Penny will come third.
There's a whole weekend. I guess it's possible. I'm interested in whether Mordaunt can overhaul Sunak. I think he might get squeezed out.
The other factor is whether the ERG are prepared to back Truss. No sign they are remotely keen on her thus far.
He has a double incentive to consider that. First, Ukraine; second, the likelihood of a senior cabinet post.
Go on YouTube you can find a plethora of great speeches/off the cuff remarks from Mordaunt, you cannot find that for Badenoch.
Private Eye has interesting info on Riki
Do not assume that every Braverman/Badenoch/Truss vote is a hive mind that will consolidate into the last one standing.
Implying Penny can get votes from Badenoch.
https://twitter.com/joncraig/status/1547589116451205121
Jesus Christ, no.
What a dull contest a Sunak/Truss would be. Neither is up to beating Starmer and Labour in a GE.