I think that is a fair point re Badenoch and I say that as a backer. However, it is pretty clear to anyone that Truss is going to struggle in any sort of campaigning. So, the Right of the party is going to have to make a choice pretty soon as to essentially say 'lose in third' or let's throw caution to the winds.
Is Badenoch as transfer-friendly (from Truss) as Truss is (from Badenoch)? I wouldn't have thought so - Truss is whatever her faults an established mainstream candidate, and, barring personal friendship/resentments, surely anyone who is basically right-wing will prefer her to Sunak or Mordaunt. Badenoch is an interesting wildcard. I'm not sure she'd get more than half the Truss vote, so Mordaunt would come second. Thus I'd have thought the calculation is exactly the reverse - "have a weak campaigner in 2nd" or "be ideologically sound and lose in third".
But you know the Tories better than most of us.
This sounds fine .... but
Indulgences have now been satisfied and Tory MPs will in short measure turn to who keeps them in power and who keeps my seat.
I reckon Braverman's vote transfers over to Badenoch and ahead of Truss.
Truss did better to expectation this round than Badenoch.
I don't think Badenoch gets sufficient transfer to overtake Truss.
I agree, actually, Badenoch didn't do well enough. She needed to be within 5-6 votes, and 15 votes is probably too much.
Yes: which is good news for Truss, as she inherits most of Badenoch's votes.
Looking at the odds, I think:
(1) As Sunak loses in the members vote against everyone, he is still far too short (2) Sunak v Truss is perfectly possible, if TT's vote splits relatively evenly between Sunak and Morduant. In which case, Truss is the winner. She's probably a small buy. (3) The likeliest outcome is still that Morduant makes the final two, and so she's still a small buy. (4) Badenoch's odds are about right - absent an amazing performance in the debates - because it's tough for her to overtake Truss. And even if she did overtake her, I don't see enough of Truss's support going to her to make the final two.
Wouldn't there be a "military" transfer from TT to Penny. That photo of her surrounded by various Navy bods was quite Top Gun Maverick and will impress the membership.
Tugendhat is portrayed as the moderate of the bunch, but one of the policies he has advocated - a no-fly zone in Ukraine - is more extreme than anything the other candidates, including now-eliminated Braverman, have said. I wish he could have found another way to portray himself as well 'ard. Nevertheless, he has a reassuring air and seems to command cross-part respect; could a cabinet role be offered, or does he have more power as a select comittee chair?
....
Gosh, I did not know that.
No matter how reasonable a Tory appears, out pops the cloven hoof at some point.
(doesn't add up to 0 because Flynn expected 358 votes and there were actually 356)
Mordaunt is the one performing best compared to last round and compared to expectations. Some posters said after the last round that they didn't see where Mordaunt would get extra votes from, yet she gained more votes than any other candidate. It may be that she has reached her ceiling, but it isn't obvious from the numbers.
There are clearly fewer Braverman votes to redistribute than Flynn expected, but Flynn's model has Mordaunt as the biggest beneficiary. However, Flynn was expecting Badenoch to be knocked out next. As things stand, that will almost certainly be Tugendhat.
- Hospital numbers just out are an increase of under 1% week-on-week. I'll now be staggered if tomorrow doesn't give a week-on-week fall. - Numbers in hospital are tailing off nicely - up only 66 on yesterday. As this is usually a lagging indicator (as it takes some time to recover), that reinforces the indication that the drop in admissions rates starts from the 13th.
This implies new infections probably topped out around the 7th of July and are on their way down again. Prevalence may take a few more days to drop, and the ONS survey is always a week in arrears, so it's possible that it'll still be pointing a little upwards, but could well be level or even starting to fall.
Again, apologies for the hysterical tone of this information.
The right need to choose between Truss and Badenoch, or they will be left with Rishi v Mordaunt.
In reality, the “right” (Braverman + Badenoch + Truss) contains a decent chunk of liberals and modernisers who will head to Mordaunt if they have to.
Braverman + Badenoch + Truss = 140 votes.
Even if some drift to Mordaunt or Sunak, that's still a big enough bloc, and Badenoch could attract modernisers in her own right if she breaks through to the top tier.
I don't think the Truss bloc will just transfer over to Badenoch. She might be the biggest beneficiary, but I can't see her getting more than half. That makes Badenoch's path quite a narrow one.
I'd be surprised if the vast majority of the Truss vote didn't shift to Kemi. I'd also be shocked if TT votes didn't shift over as a majority to Rishi rather than Penny. The former is in favour of "grown up government" which is probably more appealing to TT supporters vs another vapid blonde who can turn a phrase sometimes.
I don't think people shift their votes entirely on the basis on intellectual purity - there's also friendship, experience, likelihood of preferment, and - of course - fear of losing their seat at the next election.
And that last one is where I think Penny has the edge over Kemi.
Now, this weekend with the debates might change things. Kemi could really be the star of the show. But then so could Truss or Morduant or even TT.
(1) Rishi did better than expected. Some people on here thought he was a busted flush after round one, and that he might not make the final two. Well... he's on 101 (+13) and (realistically) only needs 120 to make it to the final two. He might not make it, but he looks more likely to than yesterday.
(2) There is a path for Badenoch to make it, but it's a very narrow one. If she gets all Suella's vote, she leapfrogs Truss into third. But (realistically) votes don't split that easily. More likely she gets two-thirds, and Truss maintains a small lead over Badenoch.
(3) If TT pulls out now, and his vote goes mostly to Morduant, then she is also at 100+.
In other words, it's entirely possible that next round we get something like:
Rishi 107 Morduant 100 Truss 75 Badenoch 70
(Maths probably slightly off, but that's the area.)
And, realistically that probably means Morduant v Truss for the final two. (Although other combinations are perfectly possible.)
On the other hand, if Badenoch beats Truss out for third, then it's a bit different. For a start, I think Truss's votes split more evenly than Badenoch's. In which case, I think Sunak v Morduant is the likely final two.
I think those results are reasonable for Truss but slightly disappointing for Mordaunt. With both Hunt and Zahawi dropping out, Mordaunt has only picked up a net +2 compared to Truss, widening the margin over Truss to 19.
I can't see Badenoch beating Truss for 3rd now even if she got the bulk of Braverman's 27 and I don't think she can rely on Tugenhat's to narrow the gap with Truss. So realistically the final 3 will be Sunak, Mordaunt and Truss.
From where we are now, Mordaunt will pick up more than Truss of Tugenhat's 32, while Truss will pick up more than Mordaunt of Braverman/Badenoch's combined current 76. But the latter pile is more than twice as big as the former. The question is whether that is enough to close the gap of 19 as it stands. In the final ballot I think it is literally going to come down to a handful of votes between Mordaunt and Truss, and both will be behind Sunak.
Tugendhat is portrayed as the moderate of the bunch, but one of the policies he has advocated - a no-fly zone in Ukraine - is more extreme than anything the other candidates, including now-eliminated Braverman, have said. I wish he could have found another way to portray himself as well 'ard. Nevertheless, he has a reassuring air and seems to command cross-part respect; could a cabinet role be offered, or does he have more power as a select comittee chair?
....
Gosh, I did not know that.
No matter how reasonable a Tory appears, out pops the cloven hoof at some point.
...
I was so sure of it, but going back to look it up, I can't find it. I know Elwood suggested it, but I could have sworn Tugendhat had as well. Please take my words with a pinch of salt here. If TT did say it, he has certainly since rowed back, though even to entertain the notion is risky.
The right need to choose between Truss and Badenoch, or they will be left with Rishi v Mordaunt.
In reality, the “right” (Braverman + Badenoch + Truss) contains a decent chunk of liberals and modernisers who will head to Mordaunt if they have to.
Braverman + Badenoch + Truss = 140 votes.
Even if some drift to Mordaunt or Sunak, that's still a big enough bloc, and Badenoch could attract modernisers in her own right if she breaks through to the top tier.
I don't think the Truss bloc will just transfer over to Badenoch. She might be the biggest beneficiary, but I can't see her getting more than half. That makes Badenoch's path quite a narrow one.
I'd be surprised if the vast majority of the Truss vote didn't shift to Kemi. I'd also be shocked if TT votes didn't shift over as a majority to Rishi rather than Penny. The former is in favour of "grown up government" which is probably more appealing to TT supporters vs another vapid blonde who can turn a phrase sometimes.
Except Sunak (probably) can't win, and is also reputedly unsound on Ukraine.
At this stage everyone thought Dave couldn't win and we may as well appoint David Davis to the top job.
The campaign can change everything, we have no idea how the final two will campaign, how well they will hold up under scrutiny and whether the party members will want to gamble on a fresh face or not.
Calling the result right now is a fool's errand.
At this stage in 2005 (second ballot of Leadership election) Cameron had leapfrogged Davis and was quite firmly the favourite.
In fact it was the start of the official campaign at the Tory conference where Cameron really took off against Davis. It was the unofficial bit before the ballots where Davis was considered the runaway favourite.
The right need to choose between Truss and Badenoch, or they will be left with Rishi v Mordaunt.
In reality, the “right” (Braverman + Badenoch + Truss) contains a decent chunk of liberals and modernisers who will head to Mordaunt if they have to.
Braverman + Badenoch + Truss = 140 votes.
Even if some drift to Mordaunt or Sunak, that's still a big enough bloc, and Badenoch could attract modernisers in her own right if she breaks through to the top tier.
I don't think the Truss bloc will just transfer over to Badenoch. She might be the biggest beneficiary, but I can't see her getting more than half. That makes Badenoch's path quite a narrow one.
I'd be surprised if the vast majority of the Truss vote didn't shift to Kemi. I'd also be shocked if TT votes didn't shift over as a majority to Rishi rather than Penny. The former is in favour of "grown up government" which is probably more appealing to TT supporters vs another vapid blonde who can turn a phrase sometimes.
Except Sunak (probably) can't win, and is also reputedly unsound on Ukraine.
I don't think a Sunak government will economically and militarly via supplies support Ukraine as much as we currently do. Surely this would be an issue for TT?
TT is an attack dog. Time for Rishi to be nervous.
I have a left field projection of something that could happen.
Last three are Sunak, Truss, Mordaunt.
All the internal membership polling is showing Mordaunt as big favourite followed by Truss the Sunak.
MPs select Truss and Sunak.
Sunak knows he isn’t going to win against Truss and so cuts a deal with Mordaunt to pull out in return for a role he wants.
1922 committee remind Truss, JRM etc that candidates pledged to contest final 2.
Mordaunt wins members vote, Sunak saves the country from Truss and gets to laugh at JRM and co.
As I understand it, Sunak dropping out at that stage would mean Truss is elected. The third placed candidate does NOT go onto the ballot if one of the top two drops out after MPs vote. Brady has confirmed that and indeed it follows what happened in 2016.
I have a left field projection of something that could happen.
Last three are Sunak, Truss, Mordaunt.
All the internal membership polling is showing Mordaunt as big favourite followed by Truss the Sunak.
MPs select Truss and Sunak.
Sunak knows he isn’t going to win against Truss and so cuts a deal with Mordaunt to pull out in return for a role he wants.
1922 committee remind Truss, JRM etc that candidates pledged to contest final 2.
Mordaunt wins members vote, Sunak saves the country from Truss and gets to laugh at JRM and co.
But Sunak by the looks of it won't win against either of Mordaunt or Truss - so he could just as easily do it on Wednesday morning as Wednesday night.
If he does it on Wednesday night then he has more leverage with Mordaunt as if she refuses his offer she’s not PM anyway and facing prospect of PM Truss.
If he did it morning before vote then she might be thinking she will get through on own anyway so why cut a deal.
- Hospital numbers just out are an increase of under 1% week-on-week. I'll now be staggered if tomorrow doesn't give a week-on-week fall. - Numbers in hospital are tailing off nicely - up only 66 on yesterday. As this is usually a lagging indicator (as it takes some time to recover), that reinforces the indication that the drop in admissions rates starts from the 13th.
This implies new infections probably topped out around the 7th of July and are on their way down again. Prevalence may take a few more days to drop, and the ONS survey is always a week in arrears, so it's possible that it'll still be pointing a little upwards, but could well be level or even starting to fall.
Again, apologies for the hysterical tone of this information.
That's cool, hopefully you can soon learn to stop worrying about Covid and stop hyperventilating over rises and falls, and then you'll be over your hysteria. 👍
So stopping Truss getting the Braverman transfers is Penny's sole aim this weekend. If Truss doesnt get the bulk of them shes finished. Braverman is her most transfer friendly that was left.
I’m not sure of that. Badenoch fans might not be natural Penny fans, and Braverman support might go large for Badenoch. So I wouldn’t put any pressure on Penny for next round. Nor does Penny have to storm debates, just not bomb.
All the pressure is on Truss, both for the debates and stopping Badenoch getting Braverman votes.
Truss's launch was absolutely rubbished on Talk Radio, where her supporters should be. Wooden, cliched, uninspiring and desperate delivery they said.
Which is surprising since it is often reported that there are queues to hear her speak.
If Badenoch has a strong debate, its still just about open I think. Truss might have to give way. Exciting.
That's her "Hail Mary" - she has to be the star (on the Right) at the debates. And that's far from impossible. Sunak will be boring. Truss will be weird. And Morduant has high expectations already.
I have a left field projection of something that could happen.
Last three are Sunak, Truss, Mordaunt.
All the internal membership polling is showing Mordaunt as big favourite followed by Truss the Sunak.
MPs select Truss and Sunak.
Sunak knows he isn’t going to win against Truss and so cuts a deal with Mordaunt to pull out in return for a role he wants.
1922 committee remind Truss, JRM etc that candidates pledged to contest final 2.
Mordaunt wins members vote, Sunak saves the country from Truss and gets to laugh at JRM and co.
As I understand it, Sunak dropping out at that stage would mean Truss is elected. The third placed candidate does NOT go onto the ballot if one of the top two drops out after MPs vote. Brady has confirmed that and indeed it follows what happened in 2016.
I thought that the pledge to contest was to ensure a vote went to members so that if one of last two pulled out then third was promoted to membership vote in order to ensure the members decide and no stitch up/coronation possible?
If Badenoch is smart - which she seems to be - she won't recommend her supporters switch to anyone if she is eliminated. None of the other contenders are very impressive and she's in line for a Cabinet position whoever wins.
We've actually seen Sunak in a TV debate before, once.
He wasn't very good - although was better than I think RLB who he was up against
I remember him being decent, but the thing is he is probably going to try the 'don't sell fairytales' kind of line, and Mordaunt and co will tear him to pieces simply by being less equivocal on things.
So stopping Truss getting the Braverman transfers is Penny's sole aim this weekend. If Truss doesnt get the bulk of them shes finished. Braverman is her most transfer friendly that was left.
I’m not sure of that. Badenoch fans might not be natural Penny fans, and Braverman support might go large for Badenoch. So I wouldn’t put any pressure on Penny for next round. Nor does Penny have to storm debates, just not bomb.
All the pressure is on Truss, both for the debates and stopping Badenoch getting Braverman votes.
Truss's launch was absolutely rubbished on Talk Radio, where her supporters should be. Wooden, cliched, uninspiring and desperate delivery they said.
Which is surprising since it is often reported that there are queues to hear her speak.
If Badenoch has a strong debate, its still just about open I think. Truss might have to give way. Exciting.
That's her "Hail Mary" - she has to be the star (on the Right) at the debates. And that's far from impossible. Sunak will be boring. Truss will be weird. And Morduant has high expectations already.
Agreed, but I guess if Badenoch treats it a 'Hail Mary' situation and gets too aggressive that could be counterproductive. Tough balance to get right
So stopping Truss getting the Braverman transfers is Penny's sole aim this weekend. If Truss doesnt get the bulk of them shes finished. Braverman is her most transfer friendly that was left.
I’m not sure of that. Badenoch fans might not be natural Penny fans, and Braverman support might go large for Badenoch. So I wouldn’t put any pressure on Penny for next round. Nor does Penny have to storm debates, just not bomb.
All the pressure is on Truss, both for the debates and stopping Badenoch getting Braverman votes.
Truss's launch was absolutely rubbished on Talk Radio, where her supporters should be. Wooden, cliched, uninspiring and desperate delivery they said.
Which is surprising since it is often reported that there are queues to hear her speak.
If Badenoch has a strong debate, its still just about open I think. Truss might have to give way. Exciting.
That's her "Hail Mary" - she has to be the star (on the Right) at the debates. And that's far from impossible. Sunak will be boring. Truss will be weird. And Morduant has high expectations already.
I don't think it is so much of a Hail Mary. There are a fair amount of questions being asked about Truss and she is a weak performer. Given what is coming out about PM, I don't think the Right will trust PM so they will want to have a candidate who wins in the final.
I suppose in fairness there will be some lazy claims overhyping it too. I recall a lot of 'Labour not ready for a woman talk'.
If Mordaunt defeats Sunak, we will still have **absolutely robust** evidence that the Conservative Party was "ready" to elect an ethnic minority leader (though it didn't do so this time). Nor would Mordaunt losing mean not "ready" for a woman
I reckon Braverman's vote transfers over to Badenoch and ahead of Truss.
Truss did better to expectation this round than Badenoch.
I don't think Badenoch gets sufficient transfer to overtake Truss.
I agree, actually, Badenoch didn't do well enough. She needed to be within 5-6 votes, and 15 votes is probably too much.
Yes: which is good news for Truss, as she inherits most of Badenoch's votes.
Looking at the odds, I think:
(1) As Sunak loses in the members vote against everyone, he is still far too short (2) Sunak v Truss is perfectly possible, if TT's vote splits relatively evenly between Sunak and Morduant. In which case, Truss is the winner. She's probably a small buy. (3) The likeliest outcome is still that Morduant makes the final two, and so she's still a small buy. (4) Badenoch's odds are about right - absent an amazing performance in the debates - because it's tough for her to overtake Truss. And even if she did overtake her, I don't see enough of Truss's support going to her to make the final two.
I have a left field projection of something that could happen.
Last three are Sunak, Truss, Mordaunt.
All the internal membership polling is showing Mordaunt as big favourite followed by Truss the Sunak.
MPs select Truss and Sunak.
Sunak knows he isn’t going to win against Truss and so cuts a deal with Mordaunt to pull out in return for a role he wants.
1922 committee remind Truss, JRM etc that candidates pledged to contest final 2.
Mordaunt wins members vote, Sunak saves the country from Truss and gets to laugh at JRM and co.
As I understand it, Sunak dropping out at that stage would mean Truss is elected. The third placed candidate does NOT go onto the ballot if one of the top two drops out after MPs vote. Brady has confirmed that and indeed it follows what happened in 2016.
I thought that the pledge to contest was to ensure a vote went to members so that if one of last two pulled out then third was promoted to membership vote in order to ensure the members decide and no stitch up/coronation possible?
I am fairly sure that they decided simply to seek an assurances from all candidates that they'd not drop out if they made the top two to avoid the Leadsom/May situation. But they didn't make a rule that the third candidate would step up if one of the top two dropped out despite giving an assurance.
There might be some pressure to change the rules (again) to do it in those circumstances. But if you're in the top two and you drop out, the rules as they currently are say your opponent is elected unopposed.
This should be a great year for the Republicans in the Senate. That said, 2018 should have been a great year for the Democrats, and they ended up dropping two seats, even while they ran away with the House.
The polls show narrow Democrat leads in pretty much every competitive Senate race - Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania and even Ohio. There is also the risk that the Republicans end up +1 net against the Democrats, but lose Utah to Mr McMullin.
Personally, I think 1.5 on Betfair is too short for Senate majority. They should be favourites, but at the 1.8-1.9 level, not the 1.5 one.
No @Leon this afternoon? We seem to have someone called Misty who has similar obsessions and occasionally, a similar delivery. Who'd thought it possible?
P vallance We are really unbelievably buggered over climate
Is this moving us a little closer to the 'if the science is right actually although we kept telling you for 30 years there is just time to deal with this is we act now (now being every moment for the last 30 years) actually there isn't, and probably wasn't then either' moment?
I hesitate to point out that the world is increasing not decreasing the amount of CO2 going into the atmosphere, and that decreasing itself makes no material difference - just takes a few years longer.
If Badenoch is smart - which she seems to be - she won't recommend her supporters switch to anyone if she is eliminated. None of the other contenders are very impressive and she's in line for a Cabinet position whoever wins.
Which then favours Sunak and Mordaunt with the banked numbers. Truss route to the final 2 is very right wing transfer heavy dependant
The debates will be make or break for Truss. She'll need to avoid being outshone by Badenoch while also looking more like a PM-in-waiting than Mordaunt or Sunak.
True. But, that’s not going to happen. She read her launch address today off her mobile phone! And her team was only sending through half a sentence at a time 😆
I didn’t get any likes for this, but it SO true! 🤣
(doesn't add up to 0 because Flynn expected 358 votes and there were actually 356)
Mordaunt is the one performing best compared to last round and compared to expectations. Some posters said after the last round that they didn't see where Mordaunt would get extra votes from, yet she gained more votes than any other candidate. It may be that she has reached her ceiling, but it isn't obvious from the numbers.
There are clearly fewer Braverman votes to redistribute than Flynn expected, but Flynn's model has Mordaunt as the biggest beneficiary. However, Flynn was expecting Badenoch to be knocked out next. As things stand, that will almost certainly be Tugendhat.
Eh? Compared with Patrick Flynn's predictions? Flynn predicted:-
Final forecast for Round 2 of the Conservative leadership election
I have a left field projection of something that could happen.
Last three are Sunak, Truss, Mordaunt.
All the internal membership polling is showing Mordaunt as big favourite followed by Truss the Sunak.
MPs select Truss and Sunak.
Sunak knows he isn’t going to win against Truss and so cuts a deal with Mordaunt to pull out in return for a role he wants.
1922 committee remind Truss, JRM etc that candidates pledged to contest final 2.
Mordaunt wins members vote, Sunak saves the country from Truss and gets to laugh at JRM and co.
As I understand it, Sunak dropping out at that stage would mean Truss is elected. The third placed candidate does NOT go onto the ballot if one of the top two drops out after MPs vote. Brady has confirmed that and indeed it follows what happened in 2016.
I thought that the pledge to contest was to ensure a vote went to members so that if one of last two pulled out then third was promoted to membership vote in order to ensure the members decide and no stitch up/coronation possible?
I am fairly sure that they decided simply to seek an assurances from all candidates that they'd not drop out if they made the top two to avoid the Leadsom/May situation. But they didn't make a rule that the third candidate would step up if one of the top two dropped out despite giving an assurance.
There might be some pressure to change the rules (again) to do it in those circumstances. But if you're in the top two and you drop out, the rules as they currently are say your opponent is elected unopposed.
I’m sure you are right as you usually are a detail poster - so clearly my crazy scenario won’t work. The things you hope for to keep Truss away from the levers of power!!
Doesn’t seem to be much new in this latest ScotGov independence document. Repeats existing assertions and seems to be written for the already persuaded
No @Leon this afternoon? We seem to have someone called Misty who has similar obsessions and occasionally, a similar delivery. Who'd thought it possible?
I assume that Labour would be most happy to face either Truss or Sunak. If it is down to those two it is difficult to call but I actually think Sunak could still win - Truss not as good a campaigner. Final contest will presumably be between Sunak and either Mordaunt, Truss or Badenoch - if either Truss and Badenoch pull out, the other's support could push Mordaunt out of the final two.
Tugendhat is portrayed as the moderate of the bunch, but one of the policies he has advocated - a no-fly zone in Ukraine - is more extreme than anything the other candidates, including now-eliminated Braverman, have said. I wish he could have found another way to portray himself as well 'ard. Nevertheless, he has a reassuring air and seems to command cross-part respect; could a cabinet role be offered, or does he have more power as a select comittee chair?
Mordaunt's alleged weaknesses are now being aired for all to see - not just the party but anyone in the country who cares to listen. There is of course a health warning, given who is making the critical comments. Her campaign has heavily emphasised a party less centralised around the leader and with a prominent cabinet; this is presumably key to the strong support from MPs. I think for Mordaunt we can't rule out the prospect of her slipping up in these later stages of the campaign, Andrea Leadsom style, in a way that shows her to be ill-prepared for the role.
Badenoch has certainly been very impressive so far, but she is a largely unknown quantity. Her supporters don't know her strengths or weaknesses and are able to project what they want. An advantage is that, as someone who was not a key player in the last government or even the one before it, she has less to answer for and can simply lay out principles, for the moment. There is the danger of electing her for the sake (very tempting for Tories) of discombobulating the Jolyons and Femis of this world, and then finding there is nothing to her. On the other hand, anything is a risk at this stage; why not take one that is also a historical first?
Perhaps you are getting TT mixed up with Tobias Elwood, who wanted a No Fly Zone over Ukraine, thereby advocating bombing Russia. Or Heathener. TT did not advocate for this.
P vallance We are really unbelievably buggered over climate
Is this moving us a little closer to the 'if the science is right actually although we kept telling you for 30 years there is just time to deal with this is we act now (now being every moment for the last 30 years) actually there isn't, and probably wasn't then either' moment?
I hesitate to point out that the world is increasing not decreasing the amount of CO2 going into the atmosphere, and that decreasing itself makes no material difference - just takes a few years longer.
It's a game innit. Plus the art of the possible. People not gonna vote for stuff which would make a difference, which actualy wouldn't make a difference anyway.
This should be a great year for the Republicans in the Senate. That said, 2018 should have been a great year for the Democrats, and they ended up dropping two seats, even while they ran away with the House.
The polls show narrow Democrat leads in pretty much every competitive Senate race - Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania and even Ohio. There is also the risk that the Republicans end up +1 net against the Democrats, but lose Utah to Mr McMullin.
Personally, I think 1.5 on Betfair is too short for Senate majority. They should be favourites, but at the 1.8-1.9 level, not the 1.5 one.
I think this year is different from 2018 - while a good proportion hated Trump, the economy was doing well and there was certainly nothing like the issues now with things such as inflation and everything else. Trende also makes a very good point that it's a bit meaningless at this stage - and if you add the two candidates' polls together in these states, they tend to be in the 85%-90% range suggesting a good proportion of undecideds.
The Republican issue is that they don't have great candidates but I don't think there is much Democrat enthusiasm around given Biden / Harris and the state of the economy. Let's say 1.7 is a fair price.
So stopping Truss getting the Braverman transfers is Penny's sole aim this weekend. If Truss doesnt get the bulk of them shes finished. Braverman is her most transfer friendly that was left.
I’m not sure of that. Badenoch fans might not be natural Penny fans, and Braverman support might go large for Badenoch. So I wouldn’t put any pressure on Penny for next round. Nor does Penny have to storm debates, just not bomb.
All the pressure is on Truss, both for the debates and stopping Badenoch getting Braverman votes.
Truss's launch was absolutely rubbished on Talk Radio, where her supporters should be. Wooden, cliched, uninspiring and desperate delivery they said.
Those are certainly her supporters, to spin the disaster into merely that. 🤭
14th July 2022. As Ishmael Z would say, we’ve passed peak Truss.
I assume there is general agreement the likely final 2 will be from Sunak/Mordaunt/ Truss but the televised debates will play a crucial role and of the three, Truss has looked and sounded dreadful
By the time of the next vote on Monday I would suspect a lot will become much clearer
I reckon Braverman's vote transfers over to Badenoch and ahead of Truss.
Truss did better to expectation this round than Badenoch.
I don't think Badenoch gets sufficient transfer to overtake Truss.
I agree, actually, Badenoch didn't do well enough. She needed to be within 5-6 votes, and 15 votes is probably too much.
Yes: which is good news for Truss, as she inherits most of Badenoch's votes.
Looking at the odds, I think:
(1) As Sunak loses in the members vote against everyone, he is still far too short (2) Sunak v Truss is perfectly possible, if TT's vote splits relatively evenly between Sunak and Morduant. In which case, Truss is the winner. She's probably a small buy. (3) The likeliest outcome is still that Morduant makes the final two, and so she's still a small buy. (4) Badenoch's odds are about right - absent an amazing performance in the debates - because it's tough for her to overtake Truss. And even if she did overtake her, I don't see enough of Truss's support going to her to make the final two.
I've laid Rishi into the red this afternoon.
And you've already been laying Truss, so you must feel pretty confident about Mordaunt?
I reckon Braverman's vote transfers over to Badenoch and ahead of Truss.
Truss did better to expectation this round than Badenoch.
I don't think Badenoch gets sufficient transfer to overtake Truss.
I agree, actually, Badenoch didn't do well enough. She needed to be within 5-6 votes, and 15 votes is probably too much.
Yes: which is good news for Truss, as she inherits most of Badenoch's votes.
Looking at the odds, I think:
(1) As Sunak loses in the members vote against everyone, he is still far too short (2) Sunak v Truss is perfectly possible, if TT's vote splits relatively evenly between Sunak and Morduant. In which case, Truss is the winner. She's probably a small buy. (3) The likeliest outcome is still that Morduant makes the final two, and so she's still a small buy. (4) Badenoch's odds are about right - absent an amazing performance in the debates - because it's tough for her to overtake Truss. And even if she did overtake her, I don't see enough of Truss's support going to her to make the final two.
I've laid Rishi into the red this afternoon.
Rishi’s route to the top is playing it safe while whoever he is up against in the members’ ballot has their campaign collapse, either from a big gaffe or some emerging dirt that somebody has under wraps, I wouldn’t say that’s an insignificant chance?
P vallance We are really unbelievably buggered over climate
Is this moving us a little closer to the 'if the science is right actually although we kept telling you for 30 years there is just time to deal with this is we act now (now being every moment for the last 30 years) actually there isn't, and probably wasn't then either' moment?
I hesitate to point out that the world is increasing not decreasing the amount of CO2 going into the atmosphere, and that decreasing itself makes no material difference - just takes a few years longer.
Seems likely that our new PM will be abandoning UK's net zero efforts.
(doesn't add up to 0 because Flynn expected 358 votes and there were actually 356)
Mordaunt is the one performing best compared to last round and compared to expectations. Some posters said after the last round that they didn't see where Mordaunt would get extra votes from, yet she gained more votes than any other candidate. It may be that she has reached her ceiling, but it isn't obvious from the numbers.
There are clearly fewer Braverman votes to redistribute than Flynn expected, but Flynn's model has Mordaunt as the biggest beneficiary. However, Flynn was expecting Badenoch to be knocked out next. As things stand, that will almost certainly be Tugendhat.
Eh? Compared with Patrick Flynn's predictions? Flynn predicted:-
Final forecast for Round 2 of the Conservative leadership election
So against that, the candidates achieved:- Rishi 101 so +2 against the prediction Penny 83 +4 Liz 64 +8 Kemi 49 +4 Tom 32 -11 Suella 27 -8
So it is Liz Truss who performed best compared with Flynn's model, which overestimated the two at the bottom.
Because those ambitious for preferment know that the sooner they throw their hat in with one of the candidates likely to get the job, the more grateful they will be.
Eyebrows were raised this afternoon when an email from Rishi landed in people’s inboxes promoting his leadership campaign. Subscribers to the newsletter, today’s was the 48th edition, no doubt signed up to the mailing list when Rishi was Chancellor and used it to promote his Treasury work from the past week. Some have therefore questioned whether Sunak committed some sort of major GDPR breach by using his newsletter as a means of promoting his campaign. Unfortunately for rival campaigns, Guido reckons the answer it is all within the rules…
The newsletter, despite being called “No. 11”, was always written for Rishi as a person, not the office, and by his SpAds rather than civil servants. Rishi could choose to write about what he ate for dinner last night – it would still be fully compliant with the rules.
Guido also understands no taxpayer funded SpAd time was spent writing this edition, and nobody’s emails have been transferred elsewhere for use by the wider campaign effort, it merely gives subscribers a new link to sign up for campaign updates. All legal and clever, if rather sneaky…
P vallance We are really unbelievably buggered over climate
Is this moving us a little closer to the 'if the science is right actually although we kept telling you for 30 years there is just time to deal with this is we act now (now being every moment for the last 30 years) actually there isn't, and probably wasn't then either' moment?
I hesitate to point out that the world is increasing not decreasing the amount of CO2 going into the atmosphere, and that decreasing itself makes no material difference - just takes a few years longer.
Global Warming impacts are not an on/off sort of thing where we either avoid them and everything is fine, or we don't, and we wasted effort trying to do so. They are on a sliding scale. As there is more warming the impacts will continue to get worse. So, even if we fail to limit warming to 1.5C, there is still value in limiting warming to 2C (and similarly 3C instead of 4C). There is even value in slowing down the rate of warming, as it gives us more time to adapt to live with the changed climate.
So, in all circumstances, there is a benefit to doing as much as we can, as soon as we can. It would always have been better to start doing things yesterday (or twenty years ago), but it's still better to start doing things today, rather than next year, or next decade.
Suella Braverman getting 27 MPs to vote for her is perhaps the surprise of the contest. Bur will the winner feel beholden to give her a tasty Cabinet job? Not sure.....
No @Leon this afternoon? We seem to have someone called Misty who has similar obsessions and occasionally, a similar delivery. Who'd thought it possible?
Leon was on after the count to say he was back in Blighty and it is getting hotter. Misty was posting about Talk Radio. Would they be playing that on the flight home?
Andrew Lilico @andrew_lilico · 56m Truss has to find a way to come across well enough in the TV debates. It's not her thing but she has to prove she can make a decent fist of it, if she wants to win.
Oh great Leon is back with another new account, this one is called MISTY
No, I'm pretty sure Misty is someone else. One of our two posters from the US who thought Trump would prevail in the 2020 election (Mr Ed is the other of those two).
Eyebrows were raised this afternoon when an email from Rishi landed in people’s inboxes promoting his leadership campaign. Subscribers to the newsletter, today’s was the 48th edition, no doubt signed up to the mailing list when Rishi was Chancellor and used it to promote his Treasury work from the past week. Some have therefore questioned whether Sunak committed some sort of major GDPR breach by using his newsletter as a means of promoting his campaign. Unfortunately for rival campaigns, Guido reckons the answer it is all within the rules…
The newsletter, despite being called “No. 11”, was always written for Rishi as a person, not the office, and by his SpAds rather than civil servants. Rishi could choose to write about what he ate for dinner last night – it would still be fully compliant with the rules.
Guido also understands no taxpayer funded SpAd time was spent writing this edition, and nobody’s emails have been transferred elsewhere for use by the wider campaign effort, it merely gives subscribers a new link to sign up for campaign updates. All legal and clever, if rather sneaky…
As a rule of thumb, anything that asks for your email address is an excuse to harvest email addresses. Hope this helps the good folk at Guido towers. Stay safe out there.
Of course, but yet another sign that Richy Rishi has been planning this for ages with a sneaky way of getting a mailing list for his personal purposes.
This should be a great year for the Republicans in the Senate. That said, 2018 should have been a great year for the Democrats, and they ended up dropping two seats, even while they ran away with the House.
The polls show narrow Democrat leads in pretty much every competitive Senate race - Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania and even Ohio. There is also the risk that the Republicans end up +1 net against the Democrats, but lose Utah to Mr McMullin.
Personally, I think 1.5 on Betfair is too short for Senate majority. They should be favourites, but at the 1.8-1.9 level, not the 1.5 one.
It's Biden's approval rating that will do for the Democrats, unless it improves markedly.
Suella Braverman getting 27 MPs to vote for her is perhaps the surprise of the contest. Bur will the winner feel beholden to give her a tasty Cabinet job? Not sure.....
Didn’t she have the ERG badge, and backing from the likes of Baker? So perhaps encouraging that their following is so small
I reckon Braverman's vote transfers over to Badenoch and ahead of Truss.
Truss did better to expectation this round than Badenoch.
I don't think Badenoch gets sufficient transfer to overtake Truss.
I agree, actually, Badenoch didn't do well enough. She needed to be within 5-6 votes, and 15 votes is probably too much.
Yes: which is good news for Truss, as she inherits most of Badenoch's votes.
Looking at the odds, I think:
(1) As Sunak loses in the members vote against everyone, he is still far too short (2) Sunak v Truss is perfectly possible, if TT's vote splits relatively evenly between Sunak and Morduant. In which case, Truss is the winner. She's probably a small buy. (3) The likeliest outcome is still that Morduant makes the final two, and so she's still a small buy. (4) Badenoch's odds are about right - absent an amazing performance in the debates - because it's tough for her to overtake Truss. And even if she did overtake her, I don't see enough of Truss's support going to her to make the final two.
I've laid Rishi into the red this afternoon.
And you've already been laying Truss, so you must feel pretty confident about Mordaunt?
I assume that Labour would be most happy to face either Truss or Sunak. If it is down to those two it is difficult to call but I actually think Sunak could still win - Truss not as good a campaigner. Final contest will presumably be between Sunak and either Mordaunt, Truss or Badenoch - if either Truss and Badenoch pull out, the other's support could push Mordaunt out of the final two.
Tugendhat is portrayed as the moderate of the bunch, but one of the policies he has advocated - a no-fly zone in Ukraine - is more extreme than anything the other candidates, including now-eliminated Braverman, have said. I wish he could have found another way to portray himself as well 'ard. Nevertheless, he has a reassuring air and seems to command cross-part respect; could a cabinet role be offered, or does he have more power as a select comittee chair?
Mordaunt's alleged weaknesses are now being aired for all to see - not just the party but anyone in the country who cares to listen. There is of course a health warning, given who is making the critical comments. Her campaign has heavily emphasised a party less centralised around the leader and with a prominent cabinet; this is presumably key to the strong support from MPs. I think for Mordaunt we can't rule out the prospect of her slipping up in these later stages of the campaign, Andrea Leadsom style, in a way that shows her to be ill-prepared for the role.
Badenoch has certainly been very impressive so far, but she is a largely unknown quantity. Her supporters don't know her strengths or weaknesses and are able to project what they want. An advantage is that, as someone who was not a key player in the last government or even the one before it, she has less to answer for and can simply lay out principles, for the moment. There is the danger of electing her for the sake (very tempting for Tories) of discombobulating the Jolyons and Femis of this world, and then finding there is nothing to her. On the other hand, anything is a risk at this stage; why not take one that is also a historical first?
Perhaps you are getting TT mixed up with Tobias Elwood, who wanted a No Fly Zone over Ukraine, thereby advocating bombing Russia. Or Heathener. TT did not advocate for this.
Thank you for the correction, and sorry for the error. That's a relief!
I reckon Braverman's vote transfers over to Badenoch and ahead of Truss.
Truss did better to expectation this round than Badenoch.
I don't think Badenoch gets sufficient transfer to overtake Truss.
I agree, actually, Badenoch didn't do well enough. She needed to be within 5-6 votes, and 15 votes is probably too much.
Yes: which is good news for Truss, as she inherits most of Badenoch's votes.
Looking at the odds, I think:
(1) As Sunak loses in the members vote against everyone, he is still far too short (2) Sunak v Truss is perfectly possible, if TT's vote splits relatively evenly between Sunak and Morduant. In which case, Truss is the winner. She's probably a small buy. (3) The likeliest outcome is still that Morduant makes the final two, and so she's still a small buy. (4) Badenoch's odds are about right - absent an amazing performance in the debates - because it's tough for her to overtake Truss. And even if she did overtake her, I don't see enough of Truss's support going to her to make the final two.
I've laid Rishi into the red this afternoon.
Rishi’s route to the top is playing it safe while whoever he is up against in the members’ ballot has their campaign collapse, either from a big gaffe or some emerging dirt that somebody has under wraps, I wouldn’t say that’s an insignificant chance?
Yes.
Also don’t discount “events, dear boy” impacting the race.
A flair up of the war w/ Russia is probably a wash, although might slightly go against Mordaunt. A major escalation would make Mordaunt irrelevant.
A major economic crisis is probably the most likely risk (although still very unlikely) - and potentially could have the biggest effect. Advantage Sunak, if the shit really hits the fan in the next few weeks. It’ll have to happen soon, though. I’d guess most members ballots will be returned within a week or so of them going out.
Other tail risks are out there, which could still shake up the race.
I broadly agree with @rcs1000 ’s assessment the of the situation/odds.
If (and I know it's an if) we end up in a position where the final result is
Rishi 155 Mordaunt 98 Truss/ Badenock 95
(yes it's way more likely to be the case were Truss kicked out on Monday / Tuesday)
is there any chance that Mordaunt / Badenock will walk away to unite the party and have a summer without two Tory leaders attacking each other?
Surely not? YouGov's membership survey has all three beating Sunak - with Mordaunt and Truss absolutely trouncing him.
The yougov one, as I keep saying, is not the only survey. Are we being influenced by Sky repeating calling it set in stone, the results of the yougov survey must surely happen in reality.
The other surveys, such as the one for C4 giving the win to Sunak are different, I am not taking that Yougov as Gospel, not least because their GE polling varies so wildly these days but my theory is lumpiness, such as regionalism in the membership preference that actually needs several sets of polling with consistent methodology and question to even out.
Does that make sense? That yougov (for Sky?) is playing a bigger part in everyone’s thinking than it should.
Partly I ithink because media seem to swinging behind Penny. If it’s conscious or unconscious bias, it is there.
PB Badenoch supporters repeatedly asking, why are the TV treating my candidate as not in it? Also classic UK media liking to bash the experienced favourites and talk them down in favour of something new, as new is the more consumer friendly media commodity?
P vallance We are really unbelievably buggered over climate
Is this moving us a little closer to the 'if the science is right actually although we kept telling you for 30 years there is just time to deal with this is we act now (now being every moment for the last 30 years) actually there isn't, and probably wasn't then either' moment?
I hesitate to point out that the world is increasing not decreasing the amount of CO2 going into the atmosphere, and that decreasing itself makes no material difference - just takes a few years longer.
Global Warming impacts are not an on/off sort of thing where we either avoid them and everything is fine, or we don't, and we wasted effort trying to do so. They are on a sliding scale. As there is more warming the impacts will continue to get worse. So, even if we fail to limit warming to 1.5C, there is still value in limiting warming to 2C (and similarly 3C instead of 4C). There is even value in slowing down the rate of warming, as it gives us more time to adapt to live with the changed climate.
So, in all circumstances, there is a benefit to doing as much as we can, as soon as we can. It would always have been better to start doing things yesterday (or twenty years ago), but it's still better to start doing things today, rather than next year, or next decade.
One thing I dislike is the dishonesty in how some of this is debated.
Eg the talk of 1.5, you'd assume that meant 1.5 up from now, or from 1990 (which was the baseline of a lot of measures) etc but no, it's from the start of the industrial revolution. Oh and were "already at" 1.2
So we are talking about potentially 0.3 change from now? Or if it goes to 2, then 0.8 change from now? Sounds very different when you phrase it like that.
The right need to choose between Truss and Badenoch, or they will be left with Rishi v Mordaunt.
In reality, the “right” (Braverman + Badenoch + Truss) contains a decent chunk of liberals and modernisers who will head to Mordaunt if they have to.
Braverman + Badenoch + Truss = 140 votes.
Even if some drift to Mordaunt or Sunak, that's still a big enough bloc, and Badenoch could attract modernisers in her own right if she breaks through to the top tier.
I don't think the Truss bloc will just transfer over to Badenoch. She might be the biggest beneficiary, but I can't see her getting more than half. That makes Badenoch's path quite a narrow one.
I'd be surprised if the vast majority of the Truss vote didn't shift to Kemi. I'd also be shocked if TT votes didn't shift over as a majority to Rishi rather than Penny. The former is in favour of "grown up government" which is probably more appealing to TT supporters vs another vapid blonde who can turn a phrase sometimes.
Except Sunak (probably) can't win, and is also reputedly unsound on Ukraine.
I don't think a Sunak government will economically and militarly via supplies support Ukraine as much as we currently do. Surely this would be an issue for TT?
Except only a Sunak government would leave enough cash in the government coffers to afford any support for Ukraine.
Eyebrows were raised this afternoon when an email from Rishi landed in people’s inboxes promoting his leadership campaign. Subscribers to the newsletter, today’s was the 48th edition, no doubt signed up to the mailing list when Rishi was Chancellor and used it to promote his Treasury work from the past week. Some have therefore questioned whether Sunak committed some sort of major GDPR breach by using his newsletter as a means of promoting his campaign. Unfortunately for rival campaigns, Guido reckons the answer it is all within the rules…
The newsletter, despite being called “No. 11”, was always written for Rishi as a person, not the office, and by his SpAds rather than civil servants. Rishi could choose to write about what he ate for dinner last night – it would still be fully compliant with the rules.
Guido also understands no taxpayer funded SpAd time was spent writing this edition, and nobody’s emails have been transferred elsewhere for use by the wider campaign effort, it merely gives subscribers a new link to sign up for campaign updates. All legal and clever, if rather sneaky…
As a rule of thumb, anything that asks for your email address is an excuse to harvest email addresses. Hope this helps the good folk at Guido towers. Stay safe out there.
Of course, but yet another sign that Richy Rishi has been planning this for ages with a sneaky way of getting a mailing list for his personal purposes.
I'm not too shocked that ministers want to climb the greasy pole. It's more surprising that Liz Truss, who for months if not years has been accused of cosplaying Mrs T in a leadership bid, appeared completely unprepared. Even Penny Mordaunt seemed to have planned her bid since 2019.
NEW: I understand there is a ‘moderate caucus’ of MPs who deliberately are not declaring how they vote.
Before each round they organise, and decide who to back in order to keep the free market right candidates - at this stage Liz and Kemi - off the ballot.
- Kemi Badenoch: "a breath of fresh air". Her policies are not naturally aligned with One Nation but her pitch went down well.
- Penny Mordaunt: similar to Badenoch, although some felt her answers lacked depth. Her answer to a Q on ambulance times was to give MPs pots of money
Is Penny going to get found out?
Offering MPs pots of money not being popular with MPs? It will be a wildly popular policy of PM Penny for the next few years. Until the inherent vice in the idea hits, like brown stuff into the aircon.
This should be a great year for the Republicans in the Senate. That said, 2018 should have been a great year for the Democrats, and they ended up dropping two seats, even while they ran away with the House.
The polls show narrow Democrat leads in pretty much every competitive Senate race - Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania and even Ohio. There is also the risk that the Republicans end up +1 net against the Democrats, but lose Utah to Mr McMullin.
Personally, I think 1.5 on Betfair is too short for Senate majority. They should be favourites, but at the 1.8-1.9 level, not the 1.5 one.
It's Biden's approval rating that will do for the Democrats, unless it improves markedly.
One would have made exactly the same argument in 2018, and yet the Republicans gained two Senate seats.
You also have some unique dynamics thanks to RvW: Laxalit should win Nevada. But he's vehemently anti-abortion in a State which is one of the most pro-Choice in the US.
NEW: I understand there is a ‘moderate caucus’ of MPs who deliberately are not declaring how they vote.
Before each round they organise, and decide who to back in order to keep the free market right candidates - at this stage Liz and Kemi - off the ballot.
(doesn't add up to 0 because Flynn expected 358 votes and there were actually 356)
Mordaunt is the one performing best compared to last round and compared to expectations. Some posters said after the last round that they didn't see where Mordaunt would get extra votes from, yet she gained more votes than any other candidate. It may be that she has reached her ceiling, but it isn't obvious from the numbers.
There are clearly fewer Braverman votes to redistribute than Flynn expected, but Flynn's model has Mordaunt as the biggest beneficiary. However, Flynn was expecting Badenoch to be knocked out next. As things stand, that will almost certainly be Tugendhat.
Eh? Compared with Patrick Flynn's predictions? Flynn predicted:-
Final forecast for Round 2 of the Conservative leadership election
Comments
Indulgences have now been satisfied and Tory MPs will in short measure turn to who keeps them in power and who keeps my seat.
The weekend polling will be critical.
No matter how reasonable a Tory appears, out pops the cloven hoof at some point.
Compared to last round:
Mordaunt +16
Truss +14
Sunak +13
Badenoch +9
Tugendhat -5
Braverman -5
Compared to the prediction by Patrick Flynn of Smarkets for the second round:
Mordaunt +16
Badenoch +12
Truss +9
Braverman -9
Sunak -12
Tugendhat -18
(doesn't add up to 0 because Flynn expected 358 votes and there were actually 356)
Mordaunt is the one performing best compared to last round and compared to expectations. Some posters said after the last round that they didn't see where Mordaunt would get extra votes from, yet she gained more votes than any other candidate. It may be that she has reached her ceiling, but it isn't obvious from the numbers.
There are clearly fewer Braverman votes to redistribute than Flynn expected, but Flynn's model has Mordaunt as the biggest beneficiary. However, Flynn was expecting Badenoch to be knocked out next. As things stand, that will almost certainly be Tugendhat.
- Hospital numbers just out are an increase of under 1% week-on-week. I'll now be staggered if tomorrow doesn't give a week-on-week fall.
- Numbers in hospital are tailing off nicely - up only 66 on yesterday. As this is usually a lagging indicator (as it takes some time to recover), that reinforces the indication that the drop in admissions rates starts from the 13th.
This implies new infections probably topped out around the 7th of July and are on their way down again. Prevalence may take a few more days to drop, and the ONS survey is always a week in arrears, so it's possible that it'll still be pointing a little upwards, but could well be level or even starting to fall.
Again, apologies for the hysterical tone of this information.
And that last one is where I think Penny has the edge over Kemi.
Now, this weekend with the debates might change things. Kemi could really be the star of the show. But then so could Truss or Morduant or even TT.
I can't see Badenoch beating Truss for 3rd now even if she got the bulk of Braverman's 27 and I don't think she can rely on Tugenhat's to narrow the gap with Truss. So realistically the final 3 will be Sunak, Mordaunt and Truss.
From where we are now, Mordaunt will pick up more than Truss of Tugenhat's 32, while Truss will pick up more than Mordaunt of Braverman/Badenoch's combined current 76. But the latter pile is more than twice as big as the former. The question is whether that is enough to close the gap of 19 as it stands. In the final ballot I think it is literally going to come down to a handful of votes between Mordaunt and Truss, and both will be behind Sunak.
P vallance We are really unbelievably buggered over climate
I was so sure of it, but going back to look it up, I can't find it. I know Elwood suggested it, but I could have sworn Tugendhat had as well. Please take my words with a pinch of salt here.
If TT did say it, he has certainly since rowed back, though even to entertain the notion is risky.
In fact it was the start of the official campaign at the Tory conference where Cameron really took off against Davis. It was the unofficial bit before the ballots where Davis was considered the runaway favourite.
Last three are Sunak, Truss, Mordaunt.
All the internal membership polling is showing Mordaunt as big favourite followed by Truss the Sunak.
MPs select Truss and Sunak.
Sunak knows he isn’t going to win against Truss and so cuts a deal with Mordaunt to pull out in return for a role he wants.
1922 committee remind Truss, JRM etc that candidates pledged to contest final 2.
Mordaunt wins members vote, Sunak saves the country from Truss and gets to laugh at JRM and co.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2022/07/13/gop_likely_to_take_senate_but_its_far_from_a_lock_147883.html
Trump opens his mouth and bullshit pours out. Every time.
If he did it morning before vote then she might be thinking she will get through on own anyway so why cut a deal.
He wasn't very good - although was better than I think RLB who he was up against
I just did a finger in the air calculation based on the following assumptions:
Final 3 are Rishi, Penny and Truss
Rishi gets 30% of all eliminated candidates votes.
Penny gets 60% of Tugendhat's votes, 10% of Braverman/Badenoch's votes
Truss gets 60% of Braverman/Badenoch's votes, 10% of Tugendhat's votes.
That leaves an awfully close score of:
Rishi 133
Truss 113
Penny 110
Of course other splits are available.
If Mordaunt defeats Sunak, we will still have **absolutely robust** evidence that the Conservative Party was "ready" to elect an ethnic minority leader (though it didn't do so this time). Nor would Mordaunt losing mean not "ready" for a woman
Here is why...snip
I expect there to be lazy & unthinking claims to the contrary, so just putting down a marker that anybody making the claim will need to evidence it!
https://twitter.com/sundersays/status/1547491229251911681?cxt=HHwWgoC-yd7E5fkqAAAA
https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1547599691944116224
https://www.theargus.co.uk/news/20279722.gatwick-airport-forced-close-toilets-due-water-supply-issues/?ref=ebmpn
There might be some pressure to change the rules (again) to do it in those circumstances. But if you're in the top two and you drop out, the rules as they currently are say your opponent is elected unopposed.
The polls show narrow Democrat leads in pretty much every competitive Senate race - Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania and even Ohio. There is also the risk that the Republicans end up +1 net against the Democrats, but lose Utah to Mr McMullin.
Personally, I think 1.5 on Betfair is too short for Senate majority. They should be favourites, but at the 1.8-1.9 level, not the 1.5 one.
I hesitate to point out that the world is increasing not decreasing the amount of CO2 going into the atmosphere, and that decreasing itself makes no material difference - just takes a few years longer.
Truss route to the final 2 is very right wing transfer heavy dependant
Final forecast for Round 2 of the Conservative leadership election
Sunak: 99
Mordaunt: 79
Truss: 56
Badenoch: 45
Tugendhat: 43
Braverman: 35
https://twitter.com/patrickjfl/status/1547541216513900544
So against that, the candidates achieved:-
Rishi 101 so +2 against the prediction
Penny 83 +4
Liz 64 +8
Kemi 49 +4
Tom 32 -11
Suella 27 -8
So it is Liz Truss who performed best compared with Flynn's model, which overestimated the two at the bottom.
Doesn’t seem to be much new in this latest ScotGov independence document. Repeats existing assertions and seems to be written for the already persuaded
https://twitter.com/paulhutcheon/status/1547528470946873344
The Republican issue is that they don't have great candidates but I don't think there is much Democrat enthusiasm around given Biden / Harris and the state of the economy. Let's say 1.7 is a fair price.
14th July 2022. As Ishmael Z would say, we’ve passed peak Truss.
By the time of the next vote on Monday I would suspect a lot will become much clearer
The newsletter, despite being called “No. 11”, was always written for Rishi as a person, not the office, and by his SpAds rather than civil servants. Rishi could choose to write about what he ate for dinner last night – it would still be fully compliant with the rules.
Guido also understands no taxpayer funded SpAd time was spent writing this edition, and nobody’s emails have been transferred elsewhere for use by the wider campaign effort, it merely gives subscribers a new link to sign up for campaign updates. All legal and clever, if rather sneaky…
https://order-order.com/2022/07/14/rishis-sneaky-no-11-email-campaign/
So, in all circumstances, there is a benefit to doing as much as we can, as soon as we can. It would always have been better to start doing things yesterday (or twenty years ago), but it's still better to start doing things today, rather than next year, or next decade.
@andrew_lilico
·
56m
Truss has to find a way to come across well enough in the TV debates. It's not her thing but she has to prove she can make a decent fist of it, if she wants to win.
Kemi needs to completely obliterate Truss in the TV showings. It’s unlikely.
She would then need to win over Mordaunt waverers; also unlikely.
I also think Truss is screwed, unless Rishi lends her votes because he thinks she’s more beatable than Mordaunt.
Rishi v Mordaunt is the outcome in 9 permutations I modelled. Sorry to be boring.
Obviously I could be wrong. Indeed I could be Leon. But in this case I think Misty is probably someone entirely different.
That's a relief!
Also don’t discount “events, dear boy” impacting the race.
A flair up of the war w/ Russia is probably a wash, although might slightly go against Mordaunt. A major escalation would make Mordaunt irrelevant.
A major economic crisis is probably the most likely risk (although still very unlikely) - and potentially could have the biggest effect. Advantage Sunak, if the shit really hits the fan in the next few weeks. It’ll have to happen soon, though. I’d guess most members ballots will be returned within a week or so of them going out.
Other tail risks are out there, which could still shake up the race.
I broadly agree with @rcs1000 ’s assessment the of the situation/odds.
The other surveys, such as the one for C4 giving the win to Sunak are different, I am not taking that Yougov as Gospel, not least because their GE polling varies so wildly these days but my theory is lumpiness, such as regionalism in the membership preference that actually needs several sets of polling with consistent methodology and question to even out.
Does that make sense? That yougov (for Sky?) is playing a bigger part in everyone’s thinking than it should.
Partly I ithink because media seem to swinging behind Penny. If it’s conscious or unconscious bias, it is there.
PB Badenoch supporters repeatedly asking, why are the TV treating my candidate as not in it? Also classic UK media liking to bash the experienced favourites and talk them down in favour of something new, as new is the more consumer friendly media commodity?
Eg the talk of 1.5, you'd assume that meant 1.5 up from now, or from 1990 (which was the baseline of a lot of measures) etc but no, it's from the start of the industrial revolution. Oh and were "already at" 1.2
So we are talking about potentially 0.3 change from now? Or if it goes to 2, then 0.8 change from now? Sounds very different when you phrase it like that.
- Kemi Badenoch: "a breath of fresh air". Her policies are not naturally aligned with One Nation but her pitch went down well.
- Penny Mordaunt: similar to Badenoch, although some felt her answers lacked depth. Her answer to a Q on ambulance times was to give MPs pots of money
Is Penny going to get found out?
My favourite part of the Liz Truss leadership launch was when she got lost leaving the room
Before each round they organise, and decide who to back in order to keep the free market right candidates - at this stage Liz and Kemi - off the ballot.
https://twitter.com/tomhfh/status/1547613768808468480
You also have some unique dynamics thanks to RvW: Laxalit should win Nevada. But he's vehemently anti-abortion in a State which is one of the most pro-Choice in the US.
I’m so relaxed and cheerful now she’s not going to win it.
Sunak 113
Mordaunt 67
Truss 55
Tugendhat 50
Badenoch 37
Braverman 36
https://twitter.com/patrickjfl/status/1546919131265605633