NEW: I understand there is a ‘moderate caucus’ of MPs who deliberately are not declaring how they vote.
Before each round they organise, and decide who to back in order to keep the free market right candidates - at this stage Liz and Kemi - off the ballot.
Being against market economics does not make you a moderate. 🤦♂️
It seems too many people want to abuse the word moderate to mean whatever they want it to mean. We saw this in the 2017-2019 Parliament when the most extreme pro-European zealots in the Conservative Party were self-styled as "moderates".
NEW: I understand there is a ‘moderate caucus’ of MPs who deliberately are not declaring how they vote.
Before each round they organise, and decide who to back in order to keep the free market right candidates - at this stage Liz and Kemi - off the ballot.
Not going to work. Liz or Kemi will top the poll in the final 3 once the other gets knocked out (do the maths), leaving Sunak and Mordaunt to scrap for second. At the moment it looks like Sunak is likely to beat Mordaunt to second, which is why its baffling that Mordaunt is such a heavy favourite to win the whole thing. The value is in Truss and Kemi (though looks like Truss will pip Kemi in the round of 4, unless Kemi hoovers up almost all of Braverman's backers, which she might).
P vallance We are really unbelievably buggered over climate
Is this moving us a little closer to the 'if the science is right actually although we kept telling you for 30 years there is just time to deal with this is we act now (now being every moment for the last 30 years) actually there isn't, and probably wasn't then either' moment?
I hesitate to point out that the world is increasing not decreasing the amount of CO2 going into the atmosphere, and that decreasing itself makes no material difference - just takes a few years longer.
Global Warming impacts are not an on/off sort of thing where we either avoid them and everything is fine, or we don't, and we wasted effort trying to do so. They are on a sliding scale. As there is more warming the impacts will continue to get worse. So, even if we fail to limit warming to 1.5C, there is still value in limiting warming to 2C (and similarly 3C instead of 4C). There is even value in slowing down the rate of warming, as it gives us more time to adapt to live with the changed climate.
So, in all circumstances, there is a benefit to doing as much as we can, as soon as we can. It would always have been better to start doing things yesterday (or twenty years ago), but it's still better to start doing things today, rather than next year, or next decade.
One thing I dislike is the dishonesty in how some of this is debated.
Eg the talk of 1.5, you'd assume that meant 1.5 up from now, or from 1990 (which was the baseline of a lot of measures) etc but no, it's from the start of the industrial revolution. Oh and were "already at" 1.2
So we are talking about potentially 0.3 change from now? Or if it goes to 2, then 0.8 change from now? Sounds very different when you phrase it like that.
It's always been relative to the late 19th century (when the first reasonably accurate instrumental global temperatures are available). When I first started arguing about this on pb.com, with great-great-great-grand-Leon, we were only at +0.7 or so. That's why we're already seeing the effects now.
Oh great Leon is back with another new account, this one is called MISTY
Not sure that is accurate. Misty has been around since December and has made over 900 posts. Also the style is very different.
Obviously I could be wrong. Indeed I could be Leon. But in this case I think Misty is probably someone entirely different.
I CBA to do a proper comparison (partly because his MISTY persona is rather more repulsive and I'd have to read all that shit), but I noticed a few similarities/ticks. Could be coincidence.
NEW: I understand there is a ‘moderate caucus’ of MPs who deliberately are not declaring how they vote.
Before each round they organise, and decide who to back in order to keep the free market right candidates - at this stage Liz and Kemi - off the ballot.
Kemi needs to completely obliterate Truss in the TV showings. It’s unlikely. She would then need to win over Mordaunt waverers; also unlikely.
I also think Truss is screwed, unless Rishi lends her votes because he thinks she’s more beatable than Mordaunt.
Rishi v Mordaunt is the outcome in 9 permutations I modelled. Sorry to be boring.
Not boring. That’s reassuring. The only sane final 2.
It is going to be very hard for Penny though, straight in as PM not LOTO, straight into country in crisis.
She won’t be entirely trusted by the anti wokes. As a leaver can she look to tweak Boris Brexit? As she replaces Boris, does she receive the brunt of the anger if the polls don’t improve much, even though she didn’t appear to knife him like others 🙁
more than half of lives saved around the world could be attributed to just two vaccines, which shared first place: AstraZeneca-Oxford and Pfizer-BioNTech. Each averted between 5m and 7m deaths (because of the considerable uncertainty, The Economist deemed this a statistical tie).
NB. It was suggested on here a few days ago that the Covid-19 hospital admissions were rolling over. Sadly that seems to have been a weekend blip - the rate is still climbing (although the rate of climb has dropped a tad - hopefully that’s a good sign).
Every metric is currently getting worse: people on ventilators, people in hospital, infections recorded. None of them are overwhelming, but they are sucking capacity out of the system.
Does anyone much still care about this? Haven't we moved on already? Covid as a pandemic is history, now its just an endemic virus that will have people going in and out of hospital for the rest of time.
I think we could be working harder to constrain spread, in order to reduce the load on both the economy as a whole as well as the NHS. Meanwhile the government appears to have completely given up on doing anything at all.
Ventilation & filtration appear to be very effective at stopping spread in crowded places & have the obvious side benefit of also reducing the spread of other diseases. Normalising masks for anyone that has symptoms would be sensible too. It seems like an open goal to me to work on these things. The Japanese seem to be managing it, why can’t we?
“Your scientists were so preoccupied with whether they could, they didn't stop to think if they should.” ~ Dr Ian Malcolm
You're right we could be working to constrain spread, but there's little reason why we should.
Other than the huge impact on hospitals and ambulances.
The number of Trusts that have declared emergencies is large. And, as it's endemic, this is not going to change. We're going to have huge pressures waxing and waning every few months.
We can either accept that (and give considerably more resources to the health system to sustain it long term) or do something to reduce the baseline load (eg filtration).
Otherwise we'll hear more and more stories about people waiting hours upon hours for ambulances and extremely long times in A&E, and dying or suffering long-term chronic changes that were avoidable.
That is not a good thing.
Everyone dies eventually. If people die they stop being on waiting lists and we have a new equilibrium. If people don't die then their needs only ever increase, they don't stop needing care or treatment.
If you futilely try and keep everyone alive forever, then you'll end up with a nation existing to serve the Health Service instead of a Health Service existing to serve the nation.
You're absolutely right its endemic and isn't going to go away, so its not going to change. That's precisely my point. People who want to put their heads in the sand and emerge when the big, bad virus has gone away are living in denial. Endemic viruses don't go away.
If people die, they die, everyone dies eventually. If the virus shortens the life expectancy of the very vulnerable then that may just be something we have to put up with, there's no divine right to have life expectancy only increasing.
Just because something is endemic doesn’t mean we can’t benefit from reducing the level of infections at any given time. Air filtration & ventilation appear to do just that, going by Japan’s example. If you offered to halve the level of patients needing intensive care beds due to Covid infections then I bet Foxy would bite your hand off.
None of this requires invasive lockdowns, or enforced mask wearing. Why are you so insistent that we should do nothing & let more people die than need to BR? “Kill the weak: they had it coming” seems a bit mask-off fascist for a soi-disant libertarian like yourself, but then we all know the old trope about “scratch a libertarian ... ”. I’m a little saddened to see you head down that path to be honest: during the worst throes of the pandemic you were one of the saner voices here.
I never said kill the weak, but we have vaccines. Get over it for the rest of it, the vaccines are there for a purpose.
If filtration is economic to install then fine, go for it, but if it isn't then doing it for the sake of doing something is not "sane".
I’ve been triple vaccinated. I caught COVID-19 three weeks ago and still have a sore throat. Vaccinations are great, but they’re not perfect for COVID and we can’t rely on them.
Filtration appears to be very effective. So let’s see some budget from the Govt to install it in, e.g., schools.
Nothing's perfect. Life's not perfect. If you have a sore throat, take some Strepsils, don't waste billions in taxes over that.
And just because something's effective doesn't mean that it is good value for money. How many teachers would you be prepared to axe from the school's budget in order to pay for filtration? Or how many doctors and nurses would you be prepared the NHS's budget in order to pay for filtration?
If you're not prepared to axe something else in order to pay for filtration, then its just more comedy spending and not a real priority.
I still have the sore throat, but I was iller! I estimate I lost 3 days of work, so a 10% drop in productivity for the month. That’s happening to lots of people around the country. That impacts on the tax intake.
How do we pay for filtration? We borrow money to invest. Doing so will reduce future healthcare costs and future hits to productivity.
The ballpark figure for air filtration systems looks like a thousand pounds for a classroom. You don't need to prevent that much staff absence for that to pay back very quickly.
Then schools should pay for it out of their pre-existing budgets, if its economic.
If it isn't, they shouldn't.
A thousand pounds sounds like a terrible, terrible investment from my back of a fag paper calculations. Unless teachers and supply teachers are paid way, way more than I thought, maybe avoiding a teacher being off for 2-3 days if you're lucky doesn't sound like its worth a thousand pounds. Especially when the teacher almost certainly will still catch it from someone else in the community anyway, its probably just burning a thousand pounds per room for no return at all.
They had to close an entire school near me recently due to Covid abscences. I wouldn’t be surprised if the economic cost of that was more than £1000 / classroom in parental lost days of work alone. Plus the school itself would have been shelling out for cover teaching in the days leading up to it.
Parental costs aren't something a school budget covers - it's usually enough to keep staff paid and things ticking over.
With the cost of energy I suspect even that isn't the case this year and most schools will be running deficits while hoping the cost of energy returns to normal levels next year.
(rolls eyes) Yes obviously the school doesn’t pay out for parental costs.
But the country as a whole does & state school budgets come out of government expenditure.
Which is why BR’s “you should do it if it’s economic” doesn’t work for public health - public health issues are only effectively solved when you intervene across the economy, not piecemeal according to personal whim.
Libertarianism & public health don’t make for good bedfellows & never will.
It does, really. People taking responsibility for themselves works.
If you pick up a virus you might feel like crap for a couple of days, then you almost certainly get back to normal afterwards. That does not justify a "public health" emergency or actions now.
Vaccines were "public health" and that's been done. Spending billions now on filtration out of budgets that don't exist is a waste of money, if its economic then use budgets that do exist, but we have bigger fish to fry than filtration for any new billions available to spend.
2-3 days off work, for every worker in the country costs approx 1% of our GDP (assuming GDP is directly proportional to days worked). UK GDP is £2trillion or so, so 1% is ~ £10billion.
Sounds like £1billion / year to get £10billion in output back is a bargain to me - if we can stop 1 covid infection / year per working person we come out ahead 10x over.
(I have no idea if a filtration / ventilation program would actually cost a £billion, I‘m just taking BR’s figure & running with it.)
What utterly ridiculous numbers.
I think rolling out filtration at a thousand per room would cost many billions, not a billion.
And I doubt that it would achieve 2-3 fewer days off per person, since not only does not every infection lead to people being so sick to take a couple of days off, but the measures won't prevent that many infections anyway. Infections would still happen, but just in different places.
There are 9 million school age children in the UK. If we estimate an average class size of 25 then that would be £360mn just to add filtration to all the classrooms without even considering other rooms, IT rooms, school gyms, corridors or anywhere else. Or anywhere that isn't a school. A billion would not go very far at all.
We could save money by abandoning all water filtration and sewage treatment. Those would obviously be unnecessary - people can take responsibility for their own water, and the illnesses that are conveyed may well be unlikely to cost more than the savings incurred.
That's a ridiculous comparison. You'vecompletely lost it mate, COVID is done and we all need to move on. Those last few hold outs can live in fear all masked up to the end of time, the rest of the nation agrees with me, thankfully.
I'm stone cold certain that when the water filtration and sewage systems were put in toprevent water-borne diseases, BR would have been complaining about the cost and claiming that we'd been living with disease forever, and that we couldn't make everyone live forever.
And, from the sound of it, you'd have been right beside him when the latest cholera epidemic died away for a while.
Do me a favour: when the pressure on the health service causes massive delays or missed treatments for you and your loved ones, don't complain about them.
And when the next pandemic occurs (which it will, although I hope and pray it'll be a long time), don't whine when restrictions are needed because we don't have filtration systems.
"Delays or missed treatments" have been ongoing for as long as the NHS has existed. It always will, since demand is infinite. People only stop presenting demand when they die, but you want to prevent death from ever occurring.
Demand is not infinite. It just exceeds current capacity
Demand is infinite, effectively. There are plenty of people who are told they're not able to be treated on the NHS, but can be treated privately in eg America etc, because of the limited availability of funding and that has always been the case.
You can't treat every possible ailment, it isn't possible, and if you do, it just creates more ailments to treat, as the longer you keep sick people alive the more illness you have to deal with.
Demand in the NHS has always been rationed by the use of eg NICE, waiting lists, etc as if you don't ration demand it is effectively infinite.
Oh great Leon is back with another new account, this one is called MISTY
Not sure that is accurate. Misty has been around since December and has made over 900 posts. Also the style is very different.
Obviously I could be wrong. Indeed I could be Leon. But in this case I think Misty is probably someone entirely different.
I CBA to do a proper comparison (partly because his MISTY persona is rather more repulsive and I'd have to read all that shit), but I noticed a few similarities/ticks. Could be coincidence.
Yes, there are a couple of similarities. They both use English. And they both have contempt for you.
It's always been relative to the late 19th century (when the first reasonably accurate instrumental global temperatures are available). When I first started arguing about this on pb.com, with great-great-great-grand-Leon, we were only at +0.7 or so. That's why we're already seeing the effects now.
Weren't people saying on PB only the other day how this was the worst/hottest weather since 1656 or somesuch? And now you are telling me that accurate global instrumentation only became available in the late nineteenth century. Was accurate global instrumentation available also in the late nineteenth century in sub-Saharan Africa and Xian btw?
NEW: I understand there is a ‘moderate caucus’ of MPs who deliberately are not declaring how they vote.
Before each round they organise, and decide who to back in order to keep the free market right candidates - at this stage Liz and Kemi - off the ballot.
Yes, there's been little mention of Gove recently - he is surely going to be quite important in this.
In particular, if he wouldn't support Truss in a Final 3 and he has a few votes which he "controls" then that would be a significant brake on Truss's chances.
NEW: I understand there is a ‘moderate caucus’ of MPs who deliberately are not declaring how they vote.
Before each round they organise, and decide who to back in order to keep the free market right candidates - at this stage Liz and Kemi - off the ballot.
Not going to work. Liz or Kemi will top the poll in the final 3 once the other gets knocked out (do the maths), leaving Sunak and Mordaunt to scrap for second. At the moment it looks like Sunak is likely to beat Mordaunt to second, which is why its baffling that Mordaunt is such a heavy favourite to win the whole thing. The value is in Truss and Kemi (though looks like Truss will pip Kemi in the round of 4, unless Kemi hoovers up almost all of Braverman's backers, which she might).
As I said earlier, this weekend's televised hustings are going to play a huge part and frankly Truss, so far, has been dreadful in front of the cameras and I just cannot see her winning through to the last 2 without a miracle transformation
I did so a few weeks ago. I don't recommend the experience. Check in and security were fortunately ok, but in departures it was so crowded there was hardly anywhere to sit. I had to queue for 30 minutes to get a Burrito.
Oh great Leon is back with another new account, this one is called MISTY
Not sure that is accurate. Misty has been around since December and has made over 900 posts. Also the style is very different.
Obviously I could be wrong. Indeed I could be Leon. But in this case I think Misty is probably someone entirely different.
I CBA to do a proper comparison (partly because his MISTY persona is rather more repulsive and I'd have to read all that shit), but I noticed a few similarities/ticks. Could be coincidence.
Yes, there are a couple of similarities. They both use English. And they both have contempt for you.
Doesn't make them the same person.
I don't think Leon does actually. I am not surprised you have lost your password; you seem to have lost most of your braincells. I could say you have lost your sense of humour too, but it is apparent you never had one.
As for English, you'd do well to get a few lessons from Sean/Leon, though I suspect he would think you a lost cause.
In recent years I have started thinking that some poltiically ambitious young women in the US have deliberately chosen career paths to demonstrate their strength. Traditionally there are two such, working as a prosecutor, or serving in the military. Amy Klobuchar is an example of the first, Tammy Duckworth of the second. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amy_Klobuchar https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tammy_Duckworth
Could Penny Mordaunt be following a similar strategy?
(Full disclosure: If Biden had chose either Klobuchar or Duckworth for VP, rather than Kamala Harris, I might have voted for him, rather than -- again -- casting a write- in vote for Mitt Romney.)
NB. It was suggested on here a few days ago that the Covid-19 hospital admissions were rolling over. Sadly that seems to have been a weekend blip - the rate is still climbing (although the rate of climb has dropped a tad - hopefully that’s a good sign).
Every metric is currently getting worse: people on ventilators, people in hospital, infections recorded. None of them are overwhelming, but they are sucking capacity out of the system.
Does anyone much still care about this? Haven't we moved on already? Covid as a pandemic is history, now its just an endemic virus that will have people going in and out of hospital for the rest of time.
I think we could be working harder to constrain spread, in order to reduce the load on both the economy as a whole as well as the NHS. Meanwhile the government appears to have completely given up on doing anything at all.
Ventilation & filtration appear to be very effective at stopping spread in crowded places & have the obvious side benefit of also reducing the spread of other diseases. Normalising masks for anyone that has symptoms would be sensible too. It seems like an open goal to me to work on these things. The Japanese seem to be managing it, why can’t we?
“Your scientists were so preoccupied with whether they could, they didn't stop to think if they should.” ~ Dr Ian Malcolm
You're right we could be working to constrain spread, but there's little reason why we should.
Other than the huge impact on hospitals and ambulances.
The number of Trusts that have declared emergencies is large. And, as it's endemic, this is not going to change. We're going to have huge pressures waxing and waning every few months.
We can either accept that (and give considerably more resources to the health system to sustain it long term) or do something to reduce the baseline load (eg filtration).
Otherwise we'll hear more and more stories about people waiting hours upon hours for ambulances and extremely long times in A&E, and dying or suffering long-term chronic changes that were avoidable.
That is not a good thing.
Everyone dies eventually. If people die they stop being on waiting lists and we have a new equilibrium. If people don't die then their needs only ever increase, they don't stop needing care or treatment.
If you futilely try and keep everyone alive forever, then you'll end up with a nation existing to serve the Health Service instead of a Health Service existing to serve the nation.
You're absolutely right its endemic and isn't going to go away, so its not going to change. That's precisely my point. People who want to put their heads in the sand and emerge when the big, bad virus has gone away are living in denial. Endemic viruses don't go away.
If people die, they die, everyone dies eventually. If the virus shortens the life expectancy of the very vulnerable then that may just be something we have to put up with, there's no divine right to have life expectancy only increasing.
Just because something is endemic doesn’t mean we can’t benefit from reducing the level of infections at any given time. Air filtration & ventilation appear to do just that, going by Japan’s example. If you offered to halve the level of patients needing intensive care beds due to Covid infections then I bet Foxy would bite your hand off.
None of this requires invasive lockdowns, or enforced mask wearing. Why are you so insistent that we should do nothing & let more people die than need to BR? “Kill the weak: they had it coming” seems a bit mask-off fascist for a soi-disant libertarian like yourself, but then we all know the old trope about “scratch a libertarian ... ”. I’m a little saddened to see you head down that path to be honest: during the worst throes of the pandemic you were one of the saner voices here.
I never said kill the weak, but we have vaccines. Get over it for the rest of it, the vaccines are there for a purpose.
If filtration is economic to install then fine, go for it, but if it isn't then doing it for the sake of doing something is not "sane".
I’ve been triple vaccinated. I caught COVID-19 three weeks ago and still have a sore throat. Vaccinations are great, but they’re not perfect for COVID and we can’t rely on them.
Filtration appears to be very effective. So let’s see some budget from the Govt to install it in, e.g., schools.
Nothing's perfect. Life's not perfect. If you have a sore throat, take some Strepsils, don't waste billions in taxes over that.
And just because something's effective doesn't mean that it is good value for money. How many teachers would you be prepared to axe from the school's budget in order to pay for filtration? Or how many doctors and nurses would you be prepared the NHS's budget in order to pay for filtration?
If you're not prepared to axe something else in order to pay for filtration, then its just more comedy spending and not a real priority.
I still have the sore throat, but I was iller! I estimate I lost 3 days of work, so a 10% drop in productivity for the month. That’s happening to lots of people around the country. That impacts on the tax intake.
How do we pay for filtration? We borrow money to invest. Doing so will reduce future healthcare costs and future hits to productivity.
The ballpark figure for air filtration systems looks like a thousand pounds for a classroom. You don't need to prevent that much staff absence for that to pay back very quickly.
Then schools should pay for it out of their pre-existing budgets, if its economic.
If it isn't, they shouldn't.
A thousand pounds sounds like a terrible, terrible investment from my back of a fag paper calculations. Unless teachers and supply teachers are paid way, way more than I thought, maybe avoiding a teacher being off for 2-3 days if you're lucky doesn't sound like its worth a thousand pounds. Especially when the teacher almost certainly will still catch it from someone else in the community anyway, its probably just burning a thousand pounds per room for no return at all.
They had to close an entire school near me recently due to Covid abscences. I wouldn’t be surprised if the economic cost of that was more than £1000 / classroom in parental lost days of work alone. Plus the school itself would have been shelling out for cover teaching in the days leading up to it.
Parental costs aren't something a school budget covers - it's usually enough to keep staff paid and things ticking over.
With the cost of energy I suspect even that isn't the case this year and most schools will be running deficits while hoping the cost of energy returns to normal levels next year.
(rolls eyes) Yes obviously the school doesn’t pay out for parental costs.
But the country as a whole does & state school budgets come out of government expenditure.
Which is why BR’s “you should do it if it’s economic” doesn’t work for public health - public health issues are only effectively solved when you intervene across the economy, not piecemeal according to personal whim.
Libertarianism & public health don’t make for good bedfellows & never will.
It does, really. People taking responsibility for themselves works.
If you pick up a virus you might feel like crap for a couple of days, then you almost certainly get back to normal afterwards. That does not justify a "public health" emergency or actions now.
Vaccines were "public health" and that's been done. Spending billions now on filtration out of budgets that don't exist is a waste of money, if its economic then use budgets that do exist, but we have bigger fish to fry than filtration for any new billions available to spend.
2-3 days off work, for every worker in the country costs approx 1% of our GDP (assuming GDP is directly proportional to days worked). UK GDP is £2trillion or so, so 1% is ~ £10billion.
Sounds like £1billion / year to get £10billion in output back is a bargain to me - if we can stop 1 covid infection / year per working person we come out ahead 10x over.
(I have no idea if a filtration / ventilation program would actually cost a £billion, I‘m just taking BR’s figure & running with it.)
What utterly ridiculous numbers.
I think rolling out filtration at a thousand per room would cost many billions, not a billion.
And I doubt that it would achieve 2-3 fewer days off per person, since not only does not every infection lead to people being so sick to take a couple of days off, but the measures won't prevent that many infections anyway. Infections would still happen, but just in different places.
There are 9 million school age children in the UK. If we estimate an average class size of 25 then that would be £360mn just to add filtration to all the classrooms without even considering other rooms, IT rooms, school gyms, corridors or anywhere else. Or anywhere that isn't a school. A billion would not go very far at all.
We could save money by abandoning all water filtration and sewage treatment. Those would obviously be unnecessary - people can take responsibility for their own water, and the illnesses that are conveyed may well be unlikely to cost more than the savings incurred.
That's a ridiculous comparison. You'vecompletely lost it mate, COVID is done and we all need to move on. Those last few hold outs can live in fear all masked up to the end of time, the rest of the nation agrees with me, thankfully.
I'm stone cold certain that when the water filtration and sewage systems were put in toprevent water-borne diseases, BR would have been complaining about the cost and claiming that we'd been living with disease forever, and that we couldn't make everyone live forever.
And, from the sound of it, you'd have been right beside him when the latest cholera epidemic died away for a while.
Do me a favour: when the pressure on the health service causes massive delays or missed treatments for you and your loved ones, don't complain about them.
And when the next pandemic occurs (which it will, although I hope and pray it'll be a long time), don't whine when restrictions are needed because we don't have filtration systems.
"Delays or missed treatments" have been ongoing for as long as the NHS has existed. It always will, since demand is infinite. People only stop presenting demand when they die, but you want to prevent death from ever occurring.
Demand is not infinite. It just exceeds current capacity
Demand is infinite, effectively. There are plenty of people who are told they're not able to be treated on the NHS, but can be treated privately in eg America etc, because of the limited availability of funding and that has always been the case.
You can't treat every possible ailment, it isn't possible, and if you do, it just creates more ailments to treat, as the longer you keep sick people alive the more illness you have to deal with.
Demand in the NHS has always been rationed by the use of eg NICE, waiting lists, etc as if you don't ration demand it is effectively infinite.
Kemi needs to completely obliterate Truss in the TV showings. It’s unlikely. She would then need to win over Mordaunt waverers; also unlikely.
I also think Truss is screwed, unless Rishi lends her votes because he thinks she’s more beatable than Mordaunt.
Rishi v Mordaunt is the outcome in 9 permutations I modelled. Sorry to be boring.
Kemi just needs to perform brilliantly full stop - she should get all tactics out of her mind, and see this as an audition for PM, whether now or in the future. Overall she should aim to look human, and speak relatably and passionately, discussing big issues in simple terms that people can understand - as Thatcher once did. If she gets all tactical and aims her fire on a particular candidate, it won't look good.
"Super-lean individuals were only active for about three quarters of the time of their normal-weight counterparts and also ate around 12 per cent less than people with a normal body mass index (BMI)."
I don't find their research particularly surprising tbh.
Kemi needs to completely obliterate Truss in the TV showings. It’s unlikely. She would then need to win over Mordaunt waverers; also unlikely.
I also think Truss is screwed, unless Rishi lends her votes because he thinks she’s more beatable than Mordaunt.
Rishi v Mordaunt is the outcome in 9 permutations I modelled. Sorry to be boring.
Kemi just needs to perform brilliantly full stop - she should get all tactics out of her mind, and see this as an audition for PM, whether now or in the future. Overall she should aim to look human, and speak relatably and passionately, discussing big issues in simple terms that people can understand - as Thatcher once did. If she gets all tactical and aims her fire on a particular candidate, it won't look good.
Looking human is critical I agree.
Problem is the most human of recent politicians were Jezza and BoJo. Perhaps we do/should want automatons.
I did so a few weeks ago. I don't recommend the experience. Check in and security were fortunately ok, but in departures it was so crowded there was hardly anywhere to sit. I had to queue for 30 minutes to get a Burrito.
Hardly anywhere to sit not the primary current problem it would appear.
I did so a few weeks ago. I don't recommend the experience. Check in and security were fortunately ok, but in departures it was so crowded there was hardly anywhere to sit. I had to queue for 30 minutes to get a Burrito.
My last two experiences both arriving and departing have been fine, though June noticeably busier than April. Friend had hassle free arrival at LHRT4 yesterday, so it may be luck of the draw.
Final two looking like Sunak and the one whose sense of humour is just like mine.
I'm not convinced Mordaunt is going to get to the final two.
If Truss can get more transfers from Braverman and Badenoch than Mordaunt can, then she might not make the final 3.
Mordaunt and Sunak are the only reasonable candidates left once Tom TIT falls. Sunak is a short trousered weasel which, for the good of the nation means it has to be Mordaunt. Mind you, unless Richard Burgon recaptures the Labour Party for the froot loops, I won't be voting for her Government. Nonetheless, if as a centrist former Remainer I am forced to suffer a Conservative Administration, she is head and shoulders better than the rest of the field.
I did so a few weeks ago. I don't recommend the experience. Check in and security were fortunately ok, but in departures it was so crowded there was hardly anywhere to sit. I had to queue for 30 minutes to get a Burrito.
Hardly anywhere to sit not the primary current problem it would appear.
I was at LHR two weeks ago. All good but 40mins through security instead of 10mins.
It's always been relative to the late 19th century (when the first reasonably accurate instrumental global temperatures are available). When I first started arguing about this on pb.com, with great-great-great-grand-Leon, we were only at +0.7 or so. That's why we're already seeing the effects now.
Weren't people saying on PB only the other day how this was the worst/hottest weather since 1656 or somesuch? And now you are telling me that accurate global instrumentation only became available in the late nineteenth century. Was accurate global instrumentation available also in the late nineteenth century in sub-Saharan Africa and Xian btw?
Fahrenheit cracked it by 1714. My guess about SSA and wherever Xian is, is so many bored amateur scientist missionaries with nowt to do that the records are immaculate.
In recent years I have started thinking that some poltiically ambitious young women in the US have deliberately chosen career paths to demonstrate their strength. Traditionally there are two such, working as a prosecutor, or serving in the military. Amy Klobuchar is an example of the first, Tammy Duckworth of the second. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amy_Klobuchar https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tammy_Duckworth
Could Penny Mordaunt be following a similar strategy?
(Full disclosure: If Biden had chose either Klobuchar or Duckworth for VP, rather than Kamala Harris, I might have voted for him, rather than -- again -- casting a write- in vote for Mitt Romney.)
It's always been relative to the late 19th century (when the first reasonably accurate instrumental global temperatures are available). When I first started arguing about this on pb.com, with great-great-great-grand-Leon, we were only at +0.7 or so. That's why we're already seeing the effects now.
Weren't people saying on PB only the other day how this was the worst/hottest weather since 1656 or somesuch? And now you are telling me that accurate global instrumentation only became available in the late nineteenth century. Was accurate global instrumentation available also in the late nineteenth century in sub-Saharan Africa and Xian btw?
Fahrenheit cracked it by 1714. My guess about SSA and wherever Xian is, is so many bored amateur scientist missionaries with nowt to do that the records are immaculate.
I have no doubt.
Like @BartholomewRoberts I get it, but all too often advocates of extreme action do themselves no favours.
Researchers found that underweight individuals had higher than expected metabolic rates when resting, and higher levels of circulating thyroid hormones.
Their cholesterol and triglyceride profiles were indicative of good cardiovascular health which was unexpected given their low levels of activity.
Looks like it is coming from the ever diminishing ERG with Frost leading the attack this morning
I really think the conservative mps are beginning to distance themselves from this group, and Truss is now their flag bearer as is continuation Boris
I’ve said it this morning - but what gave Frost such a hugely inflated ego? He’s negotiated a deal that’s incomplete, and yet idiots like Steve Baker seem to adore his incompetence
Looks like it is coming from the ever diminishing ERG with Frost leading the attack this morning
I really think the conservative mps are beginning to distance themselves from this group, and Truss is now their flag bearer as is continuation Boris
I’ve said it this morning - but what gave Frost such a hugely inflated ego? He’s negotiated a deal that’s incomplete, and yet idiots like Steve Baker seem to adore his incompetence
"Super-lean individuals were only active for about three quarters of the time of their normal-weight counterparts and also ate around 12 per cent less than people with a normal body mass index (BMI)."
I don't find their research particularly surprising tbh.
Nor me. It might give those who tout ‘eat less’ and ‘exercise more’ as all you need to do something to think about. Why we are the weight we are is very complicated.
It's always been relative to the late 19th century (when the first reasonably accurate instrumental global temperatures are available). When I first started arguing about this on pb.com, with great-great-great-grand-Leon, we were only at +0.7 or so. That's why we're already seeing the effects now.
Weren't people saying on PB only the other day how this was the worst/hottest weather since 1656 or somesuch? And now you are telling me that accurate global instrumentation only became available in the late nineteenth century. Was accurate global instrumentation available also in the late nineteenth century in sub-Saharan Africa and Xian btw?
Accurate instrumentation to calculate a global mean anomaly temperature. The point about the discussion the other day was that the record in Central England was one of the longest reliable instrumental records anywhere (there's also a very long one in Switzerland) - but clearly you can't use measurements in England for a global anomaly.
European colonisers took thermometers with them when they travelled about and added places to their Empires, and the growth in global trade means you have an increase in the number of observations from ships (to cover the two-thirds of the globe that is ocean).
Looks like it is coming from the ever diminishing ERG with Frost leading the attack this morning
I really think the conservative mps are beginning to distance themselves from this group, and Truss is now their flag bearer as is continuation Boris
I’ve said it this morning - but what gave Frost such a hugely inflated ego? He’s negotiated a deal that’s incomplete, and yet idiots like Steve Baker seem to adore his incompetence
I agree
His background isn’t even “distinguished”. Just find it so bizarre he has so much apparent influence
NEW: I understand there is a ‘moderate caucus’ of MPs who deliberately are not declaring how they vote.
Before each round they organise, and decide who to back in order to keep the free market right candidates - at this stage Liz and Kemi - off the ballot.
Not going to work. Liz or Kemi will top the poll in the final 3 once the other gets knocked out (do the maths), leaving Sunak and Mordaunt to scrap for second. At the moment it looks like Sunak is likely to beat Mordaunt to second, which is why its baffling that Mordaunt is such a heavy favourite to win the whole thing. The value is in Truss and Kemi (though looks like Truss will pip Kemi in the round of 4, unless Kemi hoovers up almost all of Braverman's backers, which she might).
As I said earlier, this weekend's televised hustings are going to play a huge part and frankly Truss, so far, has been dreadful in front of the cameras and I just cannot see her winning through to the last 2 without a miracle transformation
Spot on Big G. The contest is all over. Truss has bombed. And the right didn’t unite around a single candidate to ensure media momentum even if she didn’t. the right have missed out on top 2 this time. The ERG, the anti wokests, fantasy tax cutters, the Tory right up and down the land - your girls are taking a beating.
The debates will be make or break for Truss. She'll need to avoid being outshone by Badenoch while also looking more like a PM-in-waiting than Mordaunt or Sunak.
True. But, that’s not going to happen. She read her launch address today off her mobile phone! And her team was only sending through half a sentence at a time 😆
I didn’t get any likes for this, but it SO true! 🤣
NEW: I understand there is a ‘moderate caucus’ of MPs who deliberately are not declaring how they vote.
Before each round they organise, and decide who to back in order to keep the free market right candidates - at this stage Liz and Kemi - off the ballot.
Not going to work. Liz or Kemi will top the poll in the final 3 once the other gets knocked out (do the maths), leaving Sunak and Mordaunt to scrap for second. At the moment it looks like Sunak is likely to beat Mordaunt to second, which is why its baffling that Mordaunt is such a heavy favourite to win the whole thing. The value is in Truss and Kemi (though looks like Truss will pip Kemi in the round of 4, unless Kemi hoovers up almost all of Braverman's backers, which she might).
As I said earlier, this weekend's televised hustings are going to play a huge part and frankly Truss, so far, has been dreadful in front of the cameras and I just cannot see her winning through to the last 2 without a miracle transformation
Spot on Big G. The contest is all over. Truss has bombed. And the right didn’t unite around a single candidate to ensure media momentum even if she didn’t. the right have missed out on top 2 this time. The ERG, the anti wokests, fantasy tax cutters, the Tory right up and down the land - your girls are taking a beating.
PM4PM nailed on. 🥳
I think you underestimate the stupidity of the party that I used to be an activist for. I hope you are correct though and I might consider rejoining if you are. Oh, rejoin is not a word they like, so perhaps not.
Suella Braverman getting 27 MPs to vote for her is perhaps the surprise of the contest. Bur will the winner feel beholden to give her a tasty Cabinet job? Not sure.....
Not at 27
I think Kemi is the big winner from this - she has outperformed
The issue is I don’t think the “right” have the numbers to guarantee their own candidate through, contra some suggestions upthread.
Do the maths yourself.
1. Tugendhat’s votes will divide between Rishi or Mordaunt.
2. Braverman’s votes will divide between Truss or Badenoch.
Then, the problem for Group 2 is that hiding inside Truss and Badenoch’s tallies are various liberals and modernisers (like Gove) who will be tempted by Penny at the final crunch, which stops “the right” getting the numbers.
Oh great Leon is back with another new account, this one is called MISTY
Not sure that is accurate. Misty has been around since December and has made over 900 posts. Also the style is very different.
Obviously I could be wrong. Indeed I could be Leon. But in this case I think Misty is probably someone entirely different.
I CBA to do a proper comparison (partly because his MISTY persona is rather more repulsive and I'd have to read all that shit), but I noticed a few similarities/ticks. Could be coincidence.
Yes, there are a couple of similarities. They both use English. And they both have contempt for you.
Doesn't make them the same person.
I don't think Leon does actually. I am not surprised you have lost your password; you seem to have lost most of your braincells. I could say you have lost your sense of humour too, but it is apparent you never had one.
As for English, you'd do well to get a few lessons from Sean/Leon, though I suspect he would think you a lost cause.
Leon's posting style is so distinctive that I'm frankly amazed at the number of other posters who are alleged to be his extra sockpuppets, though I know some posters make the accusation purely in jest.
By the way, there's nothing you can say to me that will be more insulting to me then the revelation that you are a scientist. To think it's something I was once proud of.
Nobody cares. Well other than a few right wing nutjobs who will vote for Lizzy lightweight
Lizzy Lightweight. ❤️ it!
You heard it here first. I also lay claim to the name "Bozo" for Boris Johnson, but happy if someone can point to someone who used it before I did (he says with the modesty of Leon). OK, nobody cares!
Suella Braverman getting 27 MPs to vote for her is perhaps the surprise of the contest. Bur will the winner feel beholden to give her a tasty Cabinet job? Not sure.....
Not at 27
I think Kemi is the big winner from this - she has outperformed
Oh great Leon is back with another new account, this one is called MISTY
Not sure that is accurate. Misty has been around since December and has made over 900 posts. Also the style is very different.
Obviously I could be wrong. Indeed I could be Leon. But in this case I think Misty is probably someone entirely different.
I CBA to do a proper comparison (partly because his MISTY persona is rather more repulsive and I'd have to read all that shit), but I noticed a few similarities/ticks. Could be coincidence.
Yes, there are a couple of similarities. They both use English. And they both have contempt for you.
Doesn't make them the same person.
I don't think Leon does actually. I am not surprised you have lost your password; you seem to have lost most of your braincells. I could say you have lost your sense of humour too, but it is apparent you never had one.
As for English, you'd do well to get a few lessons from Sean/Leon, though I suspect he would think you a lost cause.
Leon's posting style is so distinctive that I'm frankly amazed at the number of other posters who are alleged to be his extra sockpuppets, though I know some posters make the accusation purely in jest.
By the way, there's nothing you can say to me that will be more insulting to me then the revelation that you are a scientist. To think it's something I was once proud of.
For that I apologise, as I doubt you have much to be proud about. My commiserations.
Another day, another ballot and are we much further forward?
Short answer is no, not really,
The Conservative Parliamentary Party seems to have three distinct factions, the Sunakians, the Mordauntists and the Trussites.
Each seems to have around 120 supporters and if I were being churlish, I'd suggest to the 1922 Committee they amend the rules to allow the top three to all be put to the membership AND for the election to be conducted under STV.
The debates will be make or break for Truss. She'll need to avoid being outshone by Badenoch while also looking more like a PM-in-waiting than Mordaunt or Sunak.
True. But, that’s not going to happen. She read her launch address today off her mobile phone! And her team was only sending through half a sentence at a time 😆
I didn’t get any likes for this, but it SO true! 🤣
I just gave you a pity like… 😜
A like is a like is a like as Aunt Gerty used to say. 2343 and counting. I’ve still got them coming in from the last thread, and I was doing my hair whilst posting there.
So the message is that for most people post vaccines, the cold is just the sniffles?
If you have COVID and it's just the sniffles, and if one in fifteen people has it, then treat it the same as any other sniffles! 🤦♂️
The message appears to be that even if you think you've got a cold, don't go spreading it around.
Fuck that. 👎
Sniffles spread. Even if I have Covid, and I knew I had Covid, I wouldn't isolate. So what if I spread the sniffles around to something 1/15 already have? 🙄
Nobody cares. Well other than a few right wing nutjobs who will vote for Lizzy lightweight
I’ll let you tell Cyclefree….
Yea, I noticed she wasn't a fan. I am sure Penny Mordaunt is quite imperfect, but point me to any politician who is, or any human being for that matter. Maybe Cyclefree should stand for parliament.
The reality, of course, is that there are few human beings more imperfect than Boris Johnson, so any replacement is a bonus
Oh great Leon is back with another new account, this one is called MISTY
Not sure that is accurate. Misty has been around since December and has made over 900 posts. Also the style is very different.
Obviously I could be wrong. Indeed I could be Leon. But in this case I think Misty is probably someone entirely different.
I thought we established last week that we were all Leon?
Some of us are more Leon than others. I'm the side of Leon that's sick of all this foreign travel and just wants to have a quiet night in front of the tv.
The debates will be make or break for Truss. She'll need to avoid being outshone by Badenoch while also looking more like a PM-in-waiting than Mordaunt or Sunak.
True. But, that’s not going to happen. She read her launch address today off her mobile phone! And her team was only sending through half a sentence at a time 😆
I didn’t get any likes for this, but it SO true! 🤣
I just gave you a pity like… 😜
A like is a like is a like as Aunt Gerty used to say. 2343 and counting. I’ve still got them coming in from the last thread, and I was doing my hair whilst posting there.
A better measure would be number of likes divided by number of posts. Feel the quality...
How many Tory MPs will start wondering who is best placed to save their seats ?
There is a section who don’t seem to care as they live in what they think are ultra safe seats or are so obsessed with alleged Brexit purity that they will vote for the Labour gift Truss .
Oh great Leon is back with another new account, this one is called MISTY
Not sure that is accurate. Misty has been around since December and has made over 900 posts. Also the style is very different.
Obviously I could be wrong. Indeed I could be Leon. But in this case I think Misty is probably someone entirely different.
I thought we established last week that we were all Leon?
Some of us are more Leon than others. I'm the side of Leon that's sick of all this foreign travel and just wants to have a quiet night in front of the tv.
So the message is that for most people post vaccines, the cold is just the sniffles?
If you have COVID and it's just the sniffles, and if one in fifteen people has it, then treat it the same as any other sniffles! 🤦♂️
Huge logic fail, but then you will take any excuse.
That's the mild form - not the bad one (dependent solely on the recipient). The message is needed to remind people not to spread it. Because others will suffer, some much worse.
So the message is that for most people post vaccines, the cold is just the sniffles?
If you have COVID and it's just the sniffles, and if one in fifteen people has it, then treat it the same as any other sniffles! 🤦♂️
The message appears to be that even if you think you've got a cold, don't go spreading it around.
Fuck that. 👎
Sniffles spread. Even if I have Covid, and I knew I had Covid, I wouldn't isolate. So what if I spread the sniffles around to something 1/15 already have? 🙄
Firstly 1 in 15 is almost certainly an over estimate. ONS is half that. Secondly I think it’s worth not visiting vulnerable people if you know you are Covid positive. But to be honest you should probably not visit them with a cold either.
NEW: I understand there is a ‘moderate caucus’ of MPs who deliberately are not declaring how they vote.
Before each round they organise, and decide who to back in order to keep the free market right candidates - at this stage Liz and Kemi - off the ballot.
Not going to work. Liz or Kemi will top the poll in the final 3 once the other gets knocked out (do the maths), leaving Sunak and Mordaunt to scrap for second. At the moment it looks like Sunak is likely to beat Mordaunt to second, which is why its baffling that Mordaunt is such a heavy favourite to win the whole thing. The value is in Truss and Kemi (though looks like Truss will pip Kemi in the round of 4, unless Kemi hoovers up almost all of Braverman's backers, which she might).
As I said earlier, this weekend's televised hustings are going to play a huge part and frankly Truss, so far, has been dreadful in front of the cameras and I just cannot see her winning through to the last 2 without a miracle transformation
Oh great Leon is back with another new account, this one is called MISTY
Not sure that is accurate. Misty has been around since December and has made over 900 posts. Also the style is very different.
Obviously I could be wrong. Indeed I could be Leon. But in this case I think Misty is probably someone entirely different.
I thought we established last week that we were all Leon?
Some of us are more Leon than others. I'm the side of Leon that's sick of all this foreign travel and just wants to have a quiet night in front of the tv.
I am Leon and so is my wife
My ex-tortoise is Leon. Quite totally unrelated to the fact that he would hump a carpet slipper if he got warm enough in front of the fire.
So the message is that for most people post vaccines, the cold is just the sniffles?
If you have COVID and it's just the sniffles, and if one in fifteen people has it, then treat it the same as any other sniffles! 🤦♂️
Huge logic fail, but then you will take any excuse.
That's the mild form - not the bad one. The message is needed to remind people not to spread it. Because others will suffer, some much worse.
Suffering is a part of life.
Isn't a reason to tell 1/15 of the population they ought to be isolating. That's the logic fail.
Telling 1/15 of the population they need to isolate would be more disruptive than the fact that one of a plethora of viruses might give you the sniffles, or hurt those who are immunocompromised.
Oh great Leon is back with another new account, this one is called MISTY
Not sure that is accurate. Misty has been around since December and has made over 900 posts. Also the style is very different.
Obviously I could be wrong. Indeed I could be Leon. But in this case I think Misty is probably someone entirely different.
I thought we established last week that we were all Leon?
Some of us are more Leon than others. I'm the side of Leon that's sick of all this foreign travel and just wants to have a quiet night in front of the tv.
The issue is I don’t think the “right” have the numbers to guarantee their own candidate through, contra some suggestions upthread.
Do the maths yourself.
1. Tugendhat’s votes will divide between Rishi or Mordaunt.
2. Braverman’s votes will divide between Truss or Badenoch.
Then, the problem for Group 2 is that hiding inside Truss and Badenoch’s tallies are various liberals and modernisers (like Gove) who will be tempted by Penny at the final crunch, which stops “the right” getting the numbers.
The ERG, the anti wokests, fantasy tax cutters, the Tory right up and down the land - no candidate in top 2 this time. 🥳
So the message is that for most people post vaccines, the cold is just the sniffles?
If you have COVID and it's just the sniffles, and if one in fifteen people has it, then treat it the same as any other sniffles! 🤦♂️
Tell everyone I know that I am seriously under the weather, cancel all engagements that involve going out, and anything else that feels like work, order in the pizza and some box sets, go on the internet to Google my symptoms and sit around wondering how long I have to live?
So the message is that for most people post vaccines, the cold is just the sniffles?
If you have COVID and it's just the sniffles, and if one in fifteen people has it, then treat it the same as any other sniffles! 🤦♂️
The message appears to be that even if you think you've got a cold, don't go spreading it around.
Fuck that. 👎
Sniffles spread. Even if I have Covid, and I knew I had Covid, I wouldn't isolate. So what if I spread the sniffles around to something 1/15 already have? 🙄
Firstly 1 in 15 is almost certainly an over estimate. ONS is half that. Secondly I think it’s worth not visiting vulnerable people if you know you are Covid positive. But to be honest you should probably not visit them with a cold either.
That's what I've said all along!
Places I would visit (unmasked) while I had Covid: Shops Cinema Sporting events Airports Public transport Trains Theatres etc
Places I would mask up for, if I visited while I had Covid: Healthcare facilities
Places I would not visit if I had Covid (or the Common Cold): Home of anyone vulnerable who is immunocompromised.
Comments
It seems too many people want to abuse the word moderate to mean whatever they want it to mean. We saw this in the 2017-2019 Parliament when the most extreme pro-European zealots in the Conservative Party were self-styled as "moderates".
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/07/13/right-wing-brexiteers-face-nightmare-tory-leadership-race/ (£££)
It is going to be very hard for Penny though, straight in as PM not LOTO, straight into country in crisis.
She won’t be entirely trusted by the anti wokes. As a leaver can she look to tweak Boris Brexit? As she replaces Boris, does she receive the brunt of the anger if the polls don’t improve much, even though she didn’t appear to knife him like others 🙁
more than half of lives saved around the world could be attributed to just two vaccines, which shared first place: AstraZeneca-Oxford and Pfizer-BioNTech. Each averted between 5m and 7m deaths (because of the considerable uncertainty, The Economist deemed this a statistical tie).
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2022/07/13/which-covid-19-vaccine-saved-the-most-lives-in-2021
You can't treat every possible ailment, it isn't possible, and if you do, it just creates more ailments to treat, as the longer you keep sick people alive the more illness you have to deal with.
Demand in the NHS has always been rationed by the use of eg NICE, waiting lists, etc as if you don't ration demand it is effectively infinite.
It isn't possible to defeat death or illness.
First, is there any News that would be big enough for Sunak to overhaul Mordaunt in the membership vote?
Second, if the Conservative right have (say) 100-110 votes and are locked out of the final stage, how serenely will they take that?
Indeed I would be surprised if he plays tomorrow
Doesn't make them the same person.
In particular, if he wouldn't support Truss in a Final 3 and he has a few votes which he "controls" then that would be a significant brake on Truss's chances.
As for English, you'd do well to get a few lessons from Sean/Leon, though I suspect he would think you a lost cause.
Secrets of ‘super-lean’ people revealed – and exercise doesn’t matter
Scientists surprised to discover that healthy, underweight people are actually ‘less active’ than people who fall into normal BMI range
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/07/14/secrets-super-lean-people-revealed-exercise-doesnt-matter/ (£££)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amy_Klobuchar
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tammy_Duckworth
Could Penny Mordaunt be following a similar strategy?
(Full disclosure: If Biden had chose either Klobuchar or Duckworth for VP, rather than Kamala Harris, I might have voted for him, rather than -- again -- casting a write- in vote for Mitt Romney.)
People told to think twice about using public transport or going to large events, as figures show around one in 15 now has virus
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/07/14/suffering-sniffles-sore-throat-twice-likely-covid-cold/ (£££)
Based on the ZOE app.
I don't find their research particularly surprising tbh.
Problem is the most human of recent politicians were Jezza and BoJo. Perhaps we do/should want automatons.
https://order-order.com/2022/07/14/braverman-slams-penny-over-her-gender-neutral-maternity-bill-language
https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1547620044628041729
If you have COVID and it's just the sniffles, and if one in fifteen people has it, then treat it the same as any other sniffles! 🤦♂️
Saying that - PM does have a really fascinating background
https://news.sky.com/story/who-is-penny-mordaunt-the-navy-reservist-and-ex-magicians-assistant-vying-to-become-pm-12651726
I really think the conservative mps are beginning to distance themselves from this group, and Truss is now their flag bearer as is continuation Boris
Naval Reservist? Not sure that's a career.
Like @BartholomewRoberts I get it, but all too often advocates of extreme action do themselves no favours.
Their cholesterol and triglyceride profiles were indicative of good cardiovascular health which was unexpected given their low levels of activity.
Also, eat less.
Why we are the weight we are is very complicated.
European colonisers took thermometers with them when they travelled about and added places to their Empires, and the growth in global trade means you have an increase in the number of observations from ships (to cover the two-thirds of the globe that is ocean).
PM4PM nailed on. 🥳
I think Kemi is the big winner from this - she has outperformed
Do the maths yourself.
1.
Tugendhat’s votes will divide between Rishi or Mordaunt.
2.
Braverman’s votes will divide between Truss or Badenoch.
Then, the problem for Group 2 is that hiding inside Truss and Badenoch’s tallies are various liberals and modernisers (like Gove) who will be tempted by Penny at the final crunch, which stops “the right” getting the numbers.
You can though go straight to the guide home page and see the Braverman interview - wish I hadn't bothered tbh
https://order-order.com
By the way, there's nothing you can say to me that will be more insulting to me then the revelation that you are a scientist. To think it's something I was once proud of.
News reports say he is resigning.
Another day, another ballot and are we much further forward?
Short answer is no, not really,
The Conservative Parliamentary Party seems to have three distinct factions, the Sunakians, the Mordauntists and the Trussites.
Each seems to have around 120 supporters and if I were being churlish, I'd suggest to the 1922 Committee they amend the rules to allow the top three to all be put to the membership AND for the election to be conducted under STV.
Sniffles spread. Even if I have Covid, and I knew I had Covid, I wouldn't isolate. So what if I spread the sniffles around to something 1/15 already have? 🙄
The reality, of course, is that there are few human beings more imperfect than Boris Johnson, so any replacement is a bonus
There is a section who don’t seem to care as they live in what they think are ultra safe seats or are so obsessed with alleged Brexit purity that they will vote for the Labour gift Truss .
Sunak and Truss -31 favourability, Mordaunt -7. Starmer at -14
On the second point, badly. Not having enough votes would no doubt be a democratic outrage.
That's the mild form - not the bad one (dependent solely on the recipient). The message is needed to remind people not to spread it. Because others will suffer, some much worse.
Secondly I think it’s worth not visiting vulnerable people if you know you are Covid positive. But to be honest you should probably not visit them with a cold either.
Isn't a reason to tell 1/15 of the population they ought to be isolating. That's the logic fail.
Telling 1/15 of the population they need to isolate would be more disruptive than the fact that one of a plethora of viruses might give you the sniffles, or hurt those who are immunocompromised.
OK, good advice.
Places I would visit (unmasked) while I had Covid:
Shops
Cinema
Sporting events
Airports
Public transport
Trains
Theatres
etc
Places I would mask up for, if I visited while I had Covid:
Healthcare facilities
Places I would not visit if I had Covid (or the Common Cold):
Home of anyone vulnerable who is immunocompromised.