I typed out a long winded Magic the Gathering analogy involving TT getting eaten by a dragon to explain why I think he’s smart to stay in. Decided it was a bit too nerdy.
Let's hope its Mordaunt on the final ballot paper v Riki and I hope she doesn't offer him a job or if she does...r perhaps N Ireland. Private Eye has interesting info on Riki
Actually I think Rishi might do quite well as NI Secretary.
I have greened up across the board, having been a big PM backer. Biggest win now on Badenoch, closely followed by Truss and Mordaunt, and a bit green on Sunak too.
I would suggest the conservative mps may well be aware that if Penny does not get through the membership, who overwhelming seem to want her to win, will be very annoyed and upset
Yes indeed. MPs ruling out their strong favourite would not play well.
Particularly if it was achieved through Gavin Williamson game playing.
One influential Tory MP tells me: “Deals need to be done over the weekend. Braverman & Badenoch can be the Queen maker for Truss or Mordaunt. It would require Truss or Mordaunt to toughen their stance on getting out of the ECHR, which would go down very well with the membership.”
Iain Martin @iainmartin1 · 13m The TV debates will now be critical to deciding it. Could blow up any of the contenders, make a star of an insurgent or make one of the frontrunners seem obvious winner. Will be focus grouped live and polled like mad by broadcasters and campaigns. What a four days in prospect.
Shame on TT if he’s staying in the race. He’ll only lose more votes in the next round and weakening a claim for a senior Ministerial role. He could well (indirectly) help Truss to become one of the two going to the members: that would be catastrophic. This is serious stuff and his self-indulgence is unforgivable.
Is it not slightly too early to conclude that ? He probably needs the next 24 hours at least to work out the best options for both himself and the party.
One influential Tory MP tells me: “Deals need to be done over the weekend. Braverman & Badenoch can be the Queen maker for Truss or Mordaunt. It would require Truss or Mordaunt to toughen their stance on getting out of the ECHR, which would go down very well with the membership.”
Shame on TT if he’s staying in the race. He’ll only lose more votes in the next round and weakening a claim for a senior Ministerial role. He could well (indirectly) help Truss to become one of the two going to the members: that would be catastrophic. This is serious stuff and his self-indulgence is unforgivable.
Agreed, he should be dropping out and backing Mordaunt.
What a dull contest a Sunak/Truss would be. Neither is up to beating Starmer and Labour in a GE.
Absolutely. In fact I can pretty much guarantee you that if it goes to Rishi/Truss next week my vote will be for Starmer at the next GE.
Shame on TT if he’s staying in the race. He’ll only lose more votes in the next round and weakening a claim for a senior Ministerial role. He could well (indirectly) help Truss to become one of the two going to the members: that would be catastrophic. This is serious stuff and his self-indulgence is unforgivable.
Agreed, he should be dropping out and backing Mordaunt.
What a dull contest a Sunak/Truss would be. Neither is up to beating Starmer and Labour in a GE.
Yes, I would be a floating voter between Sunak and Mordaunt and could live with either as PM. Truss would be a nightmare but she could very well win against the former.
Kemi needs Tommy not to drop out - if he does, she could finish last tomorrow and be eliminated. Him staying in today means she has the weekend to keep up the momentum, which she needs to overtake Truss.
No vote till Monday now
Let's hope Monday's forecast heatwave does not disrupt MPs' travel back to the Commons, especially not supporters of...
Kemi needs Tommy not to drop out - if he does, she could finish last tomorrow and be eliminated. Him staying in today means she has the weekend to keep up the momentum, which she needs to overtake Truss.
Shame on TT if he’s staying in the race. He’ll only lose more votes in the next round and weakening a claim for a senior Ministerial role. He could well (indirectly) help Truss to become one of the two going to the members: that would be catastrophic. This is serious stuff and his self-indulgence is unforgivable.
Agreed, he should be dropping out and backing Mordaunt.
What a dull contest a Sunak/Truss would be. Neither is up to beating Starmer and Labour in a GE.
They are the safe but (very) boring options - Sunak v Mordaunt / Badenoch would at least be a debate over ideas and experience v inexperienced but blank slate...
One influential Tory MP tells me: “Deals need to be done over the weekend. Braverman & Badenoch can be the Queen maker for Truss or Mordaunt. It would require Truss or Mordaunt to toughen their stance on getting out of the ECHR, which would go down very well with the membership.”
He’s one of those old school posh military Tories that thinks *just because*
At least Ben Wallace has self awareness
Enough. The Tories REALLY need to steer away from posh white men this time it they are to have any chance of winning rhe GE. And TiT won’t admit defeat.
He’s actually loaded some fairly self deprecating stuff into his Twitter today. I thought you would be far more sympathetic to someone who has been vocal for years about the threat from the Chinese communist party and the national security implications from over-globalisationing our supply chains.
Kemi needs Tommy not to drop out - if he does, she could finish last tomorrow and be eliminated. Him staying in today means she has the weekend to keep up the momentum, which she needs to overtake Truss.
Scratch that: Brady says third round not till Monday anyway.
Iain Martin @iainmartin1 · 13m The TV debates will now be critical to deciding it. Could blow up any of the contenders, make a star of an insurgent or make one of the frontrunners seem obvious winner. Will be focus grouped live and polled like mad by broadcasters and campaigns. What a four days in prospect.
Wow, almost sounds like an election! When do I get to vote?
"It might have worked for Penny, but not for me. I could feel myself dozing off in the heat. Along with almost everyone else packed into the room. Mordaunt may have a vision but she’s not a natural communicator. There’s a reason that almost no one outside of Westminster has heard of her. Ten minutes of one of her speeches is more than enough for anyone. Truth is, she’s a wee bit dull. Just like her book, Greater: Britain After the Storm, which deservedly went unnoticed by everyone. It’s doubtful even Penny got round to reading it. There may be less to her than meets the eye."
Slightly surprised - I thought Badenoch would do better and possibly overtake Truss. That would allow her to squeeze the Truss backers and claim the momentum. Falling further behind is not a good sign for her.
As it stands, it now looks like two out of three from Sunak, Mordaunt, and Truss. Tugendhat has no chance and should be next out if he doesn't withdraw beforehand. Badenoch, unless she does well in the next round (that would see Tugendhat out) would be out the round after.
I reckon Braverman's vote transfers over to Badenoch and ahead of Truss.
Interesting next round. If they break mostly for Truss then she'll be looking good. Could get a reasonable chunk of Badenoch's support in due course too.
But, if they break for Badenoch, then it's potentially a toss-up which of Truss and Badenoch make the final three.
TT's votes will presumably got to mostly to Sunak and Mordaunt in some combo, either after the next round or in the next round if he drops out.
Edit: Also, the direction of TT's vote could well determine whether Sunak makes it or not. Big transfer and he's home and dry. But if many go to Mordaunt then he could, potentially, be squeezed.
Conversely, how many of Sunak's votes might go to Mordaunt, if it were to appear there was a danger of her getting knocked ?
If it's clear to the more centrist MPs that (eg) Truss would almost certainly beat Sunak in a vote of the membership, dare they risk that ?
I don't think you can assume that anyone's existing votes are 100% solid going into the next round.
True. One of the reasons that even though AV would in some ways make a lot more sense, I applaud the Conservative party for this multi-round theatre of dodgy deals, rising and falling stars and potential back/frontstabbing
Braverman is very likely to remain Attorney General as no lawyer with any shred of integrity will want to provide legal cover to a government that does not believe in the rule of law.
"It might have worked for Penny, but not for me. I could feel myself dozing off in the heat. Along with almost everyone else packed into the room. Mordaunt may have a vision but she’s not a natural communicator. There’s a reason that almost no one outside of Westminster has heard of her. Ten minutes of one of her speeches is more than enough for anyone. Truth is, she’s a wee bit dull. Just like her book, Greater: Britain After the Storm, which deservedly went unnoticed by everyone. It’s doubtful even Penny got round to reading it. There may be less to her than meets the eye."
I hope they didn’t send John Crace to Liz’s launch, they’ll still be trying to rouse him as we speak.
"It might have worked for Penny, but not for me. I could feel myself dozing off in the heat. Along with almost everyone else packed into the room. Mordaunt may have a vision but she’s not a natural communicator. There’s a reason that almost no one outside of Westminster has heard of her. Ten minutes of one of her speeches is more than enough for anyone. Truth is, she’s a wee bit dull. Just like her book, Greater: Britain After the Storm, which deservedly went unnoticed by everyone. It’s doubtful even Penny got round to reading it. There may be less to her than meets the eye."
The debates will be make or break for Truss. She'll need to avoid being outshone by Badenoch while also looking more like a PM-in-waiting than Mordaunt or Sunak.
Truss has a problematic council by election in her own seat tonight that id be astonished if it isnt a Labour gain, it will be painted as Liz the Loser in her own back yard. Her own voters arent keen etc
I would suggest the conservative mps may well be aware that if Penny does not get through the membership, who overwhelming seem to want her to win, will be very annoyed and upset
Yes indeed. MPs ruling out their strong favourite would not play well.
It could be unpretty whoever doesn't make the final two.
If Sunak misses out, bang goes the only grownup.
If Mordaunt misses out, the Conservatives lose their current fave.
If it's Truss, the True Believers won't he happy.
And it could be very close. The likely final three all have substantial but not overwhelming support. Unless there's some news, the final MP round could easily be 140-120-100, with pretty much any combination of names in frames for those scores on doors.
She is articulating it looks like Sunak (she calls sun knack) plus 1 of Truss our Penny.
We could have told her that much last Sunday! 🤭
But the bit the TV commentators are not telling us is the BIG BIG change. Last Sunday it looked like Truss into last 2 possibly Penny, now it’s Penny in last 2 possibly Truss. The week has gone differently than expected. There is no appetite on the right for Truss - and not enough fear on right of Penny or Sunak. 🥳
To be fair they spent all day yesterday talking about Penny though.
Today I feel was a bad result for Penny after the success she had yesterday, plus who was eliminated yesterday. With Hunt and Zahawi eliminated and Penny supposedly having "the big mo" I'd have expected Penny to have increased her lead over Truss, but it didn't increase.
Penny might get some from Tugendhat. Truss will get more from Badenoch and Braverman I expect.
Very plausible that Penny will come third.
If you look at what I am saying, it’s no, Bart. It’s the complete opposite.
Close you eyes, listen to the mood music.
Last Sunday seemed likely Rishi, probably Truss, possibly Penny - but the voting tells us the right are not behind Truss. We can no longer add the Braverman and Badenoch totals onto Truss and say that blows Penny out the water. The right do not fear either Sunak or Penny, a lot of the Brave and Bad votes will go to Rishi and Penny, the mood of the CPP is telling us! Truss is an ex contender, the drapes are drawn on her chances, PM Liz is no more 🥳
I’ll tell you what for nothing, there is more chance of Badenoch coming third behind Mourdant than Truss coming second in next ballot as Bravermans vote goes 80% to Badenoch.
Boris influence over the party, Mogg influence over ERG, gone the way of the Dodo, the Auk, the Wooly Wooly Mammoth doing it in herds.
"It might have worked for Penny, but not for me. I could feel myself dozing off in the heat. Along with almost everyone else packed into the room. Mordaunt may have a vision but she’s not a natural communicator. There’s a reason that almost no one outside of Westminster has heard of her. Ten minutes of one of her speeches is more than enough for anyone. Truth is, she’s a wee bit dull. Just like her book, Greater: Britain After the Storm, which deservedly went unnoticed by everyone. It’s doubtful even Penny got round to reading it. There may be less to her than meets the eye."
Bitchy stuff from the Guardian. Penny's got em worried
Truss, Sunak and Mordaunt all coming up short at launches or radio interviews today. The public hustings over the weekend could show what a poor choice the MPs have.
They can't give Kemi away in the betting for the final two. She's longer there than for next PM:- 1.74 Penny Mordaunt 57% 4.5 Rishi Sunak 22% 6.2 Liz Truss 16% 28 Kemi Badenoch 300 Tom Tugendhat
Oops — disregard that. Accidentally grabbed the wrong prices (as should have been obvious from the percentages). They are:-
1.2 Rishi Sunak 83% 1.37 Penny Mordaunt 73% 2.86 Liz Truss 35% 11 Kemi Badenoch 9% 32 Tom Tugendhat
Shame on TT if he’s staying in the race. He’ll only lose more votes in the next round and weakening a claim for a senior Ministerial role. He could well (indirectly) help Truss to become one of the two going to the members: that would be catastrophic. This is serious stuff and his self-indulgence is unforgivable.
Agreed, he should be dropping out and backing Mordaunt.
What a dull contest a Sunak/Truss would be. Neither is up to beating Starmer and Labour in a GE.
It's amazing how unselfaware almost everyone gets when they have the slightest sniff of power even if it's a crazily long shot that won't work.
I typed out a long winded Magic the Gathering analogy involving TT getting eaten by a dragon to explain why I think he’s smart to stay in. Decided it was a bit too nerdy.
Let me help: Tom is tapped out, has no cards in hand, and is dead on board.
Truss, Sunak and Mordaunt all coming up short at launches or radio interviews today. The public hustings over the weekend could show what a poor choice the MPs have.
I would suggest the conservative mps may well be aware that if Penny does not get through the membership, who overwhelming seem to want her to win, will be very annoyed and upset
Yes indeed. MPs ruling out their strong favourite would not play well.
It could be unpretty whoever doesn't make the final two.
If Sunak misses out, bang goes the only grownup.
If Mordaunt misses out, the Conservatives lose their current fave.
If it's Truss, the True Believers won't he happy.
And it could be very close. The likely final three all have substantial but not overwhelming support. Unless there's some news, the final MP round could easily be 140-120-100, with pretty much any combination of names in frames for those scores on doors.
Good luck getting a happy ship out of that.
Perhaps we’re overthinking it and it’s all going to be very final episode of West Wing. With everyone of those now left filling the top jobs and the process just about determining who gets to be Ace, King and Queen and who has to settle for Jack of Clubs.
Kemi needs Tommy not to drop out - if he does, she could finish last tomorrow and be eliminated. Him staying in today means she has the weekend to keep up the momentum, which she needs to overtake Truss.
No vote till Monday now
Let's hope Monday's forecast heatwave does not disrupt MPs' travel back to the Commons, especially not supporters of...
Shame on TT if he’s staying in the race. He’ll only lose more votes in the next round and weakening a claim for a senior Ministerial role. He could well (indirectly) help Truss to become one of the two going to the members: that would be catastrophic. This is serious stuff and his self-indulgence is unforgivable.
I'll bet now that he drops out before a vote is cast on Monday.
He's got two very good reasons not to drop out quite yet. Firstly, he's still marketable - it's disappointing for him to go backwards but his endorsement matters and there is a discussion to be had about who gets it. Secondly, he gets to participate in the debates on Channel 4 tomorrow and ITV on Sunday. For a relative unknown looking to raise his profile and cabinet credentials, that's incredibly attractive.
What isn't attractive, though, is a further decline in his vote on Monday afternoon - he's got less leverage dropping out with 15 votes or something. My bet is that, first thing on Monday, his team will say "Tom did amazingly in the debates, but soundings we have taken indicate he's not going to get into the top two (!) so we'll not prolong it".
Truss, Sunak and Mordaunt all coming up short at launches or radio interviews today. The public hustings over the weekend could show what a poor choice the MPs have.
We have TV debates this weekend and the Sunday papers, too. In reality the public - and even Tory MPs - have not had much chance to see the contenders in action.
One influential Tory MP tells me: “Deals need to be done over the weekend. Braverman & Badenoch can be the Queen maker for Truss or Mordaunt. It would require Truss or Mordaunt to toughen their stance on getting out of the ECHR, which would go down very well with the membership.”
Shame on TT if he’s staying in the race. He’ll only lose more votes in the next round and weakening a claim for a senior Ministerial role. He could well (indirectly) help Truss to become one of the two going to the members: that would be catastrophic. This is serious stuff and his self-indulgence is unforgivable.
I'll bet now that he drops out before a vote is cast on Monday.
He's got two very good reasons not to drop out quite yet. Firstly, he's still marketable - it's disappointing for him but his endorsement matters and there is a discussion to be had about who gets it. Secondly, he gets to participate in the debates on Channel 4 tomorrow and ITV on Sunday. For a relative unknown looking to raise his profile and cabinet credentials, that's incredibly attractive.
What isn't attractive, though, is a further decline in his vote on Monday afternoon - he's got less leverage dropping out with 15 votes or something. My bet is that, first thing on Monday, his team will say "Tom did amazingly in the debates, but soundings we have taken indicate he's not going to get into the top two (!) so we'll not prolong it".
Yes, that sounds plausible. Seems silly not to use the debates as a platform since he's earned it.
I think that is a fair point re Badenoch and I say that as a backer. However, it is pretty clear to anyone that Truss is going to struggle in any sort of campaigning. So, the Right of the party is going to have to make a choice pretty soon as to essentially say 'lose in third' or let's throw caution to the winds.
Is Badenoch as transfer-friendly (from Truss) as Truss is (from Badenoch)? I wouldn't have thought so - Truss is whatever her faults an established mainstream candidate, and, barring personal friendship/resentments, surely anyone who is basically right-wing will prefer her to Sunak or Mordaunt. Badenoch is an interesting wildcard. I'm not sure she'd get more than half the Truss vote, so Mordaunt would come second. Thus I'd have thought the calculation is exactly the reverse - "have a weak campaigner in 2nd" or "be ideologically sound and lose in third".
Shame on TT if he’s staying in the race. He’ll only lose more votes in the next round and weakening a claim for a senior Ministerial role. He could well (indirectly) help Truss to become one of the two going to the members: that would be catastrophic. This is serious stuff and his self-indulgence is unforgivable.
Agreed, he should be dropping out and backing Mordaunt.
What a dull contest a Sunak/Truss would be. Neither is up to beating Starmer and Labour in a GE.
Yes, I would be a floating voter between Sunak and Mordaunt and could live with either as PM. Truss would be a nightmare but she could very well win against the former.
I’d do likewise between Sunak and Mordaunt. But absolutely wouldn’t vote for Truss
Some conflicting interests for those Tory MPs who seem to be fretting about some dilution of Brexit but also keeping their seats at the next GE.
Sunak and Mordaunt have the best chance against Starmer . Truss would spend the next two years as a hostage to the ERG and would likely cause a trade war with the EU .
As a Labour supporter I should be cheering on Truss but simply can’t stomach the thought of her in no 10.
Truss, Sunak and Mordaunt all coming up short at launches or radio interviews today. The public hustings over the weekend could show what a poor choice the MPs have.
The pre 2021 Boris would beat them by about 200.
And somewhere in a Downing Street attic, the man with scruffy hair is asking "so, are they missing me yet?"
Shame on TT if he’s staying in the race. He’ll only lose more votes in the next round and weakening a claim for a senior Ministerial role. He could well (indirectly) help Truss to become one of the two going to the members: that would be catastrophic. This is serious stuff and his self-indulgence is unforgivable.
I'll bet now that he drops out before a vote is cast on Monday.
He's got two very good reasons not to drop out quite yet. Firstly, he's still marketable - it's disappointing for him but his endorsement matters and there is a discussion to be had about who gets it. Secondly, he gets to participate in the debates on Channel 4 tomorrow and ITV on Sunday. For a relative unknown looking to raise his profile and cabinet credentials, that's incredibly attractive.
What isn't attractive, though, is a further decline in his vote on Monday afternoon - he's got less leverage dropping out with 15 votes or something. My bet is that, first thing on Monday, his team will say "Tom did amazingly in the debates, but soundings we have taken indicate he's not going to get into the top two (!) so we'll not prolong it".
On the other hand he actually might do well in the debate. He's possibly the least likely to say something egregiously stupid and blow himself up.
Shame on TT if he’s staying in the race. He’ll only lose more votes in the next round and weakening a claim for a senior Ministerial role. He could well (indirectly) help Truss to become one of the two going to the members: that would be catastrophic. This is serious stuff and his self-indulgence is unforgivable.
I'll bet now that he drops out before a vote is cast on Monday.
He's got two very good reasons not to drop out quite yet. Firstly, he's still marketable - it's disappointing for him to go backwards but his endorsement matters and there is a discussion to be had about who gets it. Secondly, he gets to participate in the debates on Channel 4 tomorrow and ITV on Sunday. For a relative unknown looking to raise his profile and cabinet credentials, that's incredibly attractive.
What isn't attractive, though, is a further decline in his vote on Monday afternoon - he's got less leverage dropping out with 15 votes or something. My bet is that, first thing on Monday, his team will say "Tom did amazingly in the debates, but soundings we have taken indicate he's not going to get into the top two (!) so we'll not prolong it".
Yes, it’s feasible Kemi might Amber Heard the bed in the debates, followed by a double pants down edition of the Sundays bringing down both Rishi and Penny. Not likely of course but this is the Tory party so anything is possible.
The debates will be make or break for Truss. She'll need to avoid being outshone by Badenoch while also looking more like a PM-in-waiting than Mordaunt or Sunak.
True. But, that’s not going to happen. She read her launch address today off her mobile phone! And her team was only sending through half a sentence at a time 😆
So stopping Truss getting the Braverman transfers is Penny's sole aim this weekend. If Truss doesnt get the bulk of them shes finished. Braverman is her most transfer friendly that was left.
Shame on TT if he’s staying in the race. He’ll only lose more votes in the next round and weakening a claim for a senior Ministerial role. He could well (indirectly) help Truss to become one of the two going to the members: that would be catastrophic. This is serious stuff and his self-indulgence is unforgivable.
I'll bet now that he drops out before a vote is cast on Monday.
He's got two very good reasons not to drop out quite yet. Firstly, he's still marketable - it's disappointing for him to go backwards but his endorsement matters and there is a discussion to be had about who gets it. Secondly, he gets to participate in the debates on Channel 4 tomorrow and ITV on Sunday. For a relative unknown looking to raise his profile and cabinet credentials, that's incredibly attractive.
What isn't attractive, though, is a further decline in his vote on Monday afternoon - he's got less leverage dropping out with 15 votes or something. My bet is that, first thing on Monday, his team will say "Tom did amazingly in the debates, but soundings we have taken indicate he's not going to get into the top two (!) so we'll not prolong it".
(1) Rishi did better than expected. Some people on here thought he was a busted flush after round one, and that he might not make the final two. Well... he's on 101 (+13) and (realistically) only needs 120 to make it to the final two. He might not make it, but he looks more likely to than yesterday.
(2) There is a path for Badenoch to make it, but it's a very narrow one. If she gets all Suella's vote, she leapfrogs Truss into third. But (realistically) votes don't split that easily. More likely she gets two-thirds, and Truss maintains a small lead over Badenoch.
(3) If TT pulls out now, and his vote goes mostly to Morduant, then she is also at 100+.
In other words, it's entirely possible that next round we get something like:
Rishi 107 Morduant 100 Truss 75 Badenoch 70
(Maths probably slightly off, but that's the area.)
And, realistically that probably means Morduant v Truss for the final two. (Although other combinations are perfectly possible.)
On the other hand, if Badenoch beats Truss out for third, then it's a bit different. For a start, I think Truss's votes split more evenly than Badenoch's. In which case, I think Sunak v Morduant is the likely final two.
Shame on TT if he’s staying in the race. He’ll only lose more votes in the next round and weakening a claim for a senior Ministerial role. He could well (indirectly) help Truss to become one of the two going to the members: that would be catastrophic. This is serious stuff and his self-indulgence is unforgivable.
I'll bet now that he drops out before a vote is cast on Monday.
He's got two very good reasons not to drop out quite yet. Firstly, he's still marketable - it's disappointing for him but his endorsement matters and there is a discussion to be had about who gets it. Secondly, he gets to participate in the debates on Channel 4 tomorrow and ITV on Sunday. For a relative unknown looking to raise his profile and cabinet credentials, that's incredibly attractive.
What isn't attractive, though, is a further decline in his vote on Monday afternoon - he's got less leverage dropping out with 15 votes or something. My bet is that, first thing on Monday, his team will say "Tom did amazingly in the debates, but soundings we have taken indicate he's not going to get into the top two (!) so we'll not prolong it".
On the other hand he actually might do well in the debate. He's possibly the least likely to say something egregiously stupid and blow himself up.
He's the most likely to say something egregiously belligerent. He wanted to deport all Russians from the UK.
My westher app is now predicting 39C for London on Tuesday
That’s a UK record in itself, but this app often undercooks extremes
40C a serious possibility
Heathrow forecast for 38C by Met Office.
Yes, I think the maximum somewhere is very likely to be higher than that - the problem is as likely to be locational as a general underestimation, in that forecasting the exact location of the hottest spot is likely to be lost in averaging.
Still don't think your map showing 40C across the board from the south coast to Selby is that likely.
We have TV debates this weekend and the Sunday papers, too. In reality the public - and even Tory MPs - have not had much chance to see the contenders in action.
Yes, what better opportunity does he have to stake a place out in cabinet and to showcase his views. There is also the possibility that someone else bombs out and he performs like a maestro.
The debates will be make or break for Truss. She'll need to avoid being outshone by Badenoch while also looking more like a PM-in-waiting than Mordaunt or Sunak.
Big moment for her. Imagine the scene, TT has dropped out. Time to appeal to whatever racist element remains in the membership.
"2/3 of my rivals come from imported families. That. Is. A. Disgrace!"
I typed out a long winded Magic the Gathering analogy involving TT getting eaten by a dragon to explain why I think he’s smart to stay in. Decided it was a bit too nerdy.
Let me help: Tom is tapped out, has no cards in hand, and is dead on board.
For a taste of his whiskey would you give him some advice?
So stopping Truss getting the Braverman transfers is Penny's sole aim this weekend. If Truss doesnt get the bulk of them shes finished. Braverman is her most transfer friendly that was left.
I’m not sure of that. Badenoch fans might not be natural Penny fans, and Braverman support might go large for Badenoch. So I wouldn’t put any pressure on Penny for next round. Nor does Penny have to storm debates, just not bomb.
All the pressure is on Truss, both for the debates and stopping Badenoch getting Braverman votes.
The right need to choose between Truss and Badenoch, or they will be left with Rishi v Mordaunt.
In reality, the “right” (Braverman + Badenoch + Truss) contains a decent chunk of liberals and modernisers who will head to Mordaunt if they have to.
Braverman + Badenoch + Truss = 140 votes.
Even if some drift to Mordaunt or Sunak, that's still a big enough bloc, and Badenoch could attract modernisers in her own right if she breaks through to the top tier.
(1) Rishi did better than expected. Some people on here thought he was a busted flush after round one, and that he might not make the final two. Well... he's on 101 (+13) and (realistically) only needs 120 to make it to the final two. He might not make it, but he looks more likely to than yesterday.
(2) There is a path for Badenoch to make it, but it's a very narrow one. If she gets all Suella's vote, she leapfrogs Truss into third. But (realistically) votes don't split that easily. More likely she gets two-thirds, and Truss maintains a small lead over Badenoch.
(3) If TT pulls out now, and his vote goes mostly to Morduant, then she is also at 100+.
In other words, it's entirely possible that next round we get something like:
Rishi 107 Morduant 100 Truss 75 Badenoch 70
(Maths probably slightly off, but that's the area.)
And, realistically that probably means Morduant v Truss for the final two. (Although other combinations are perfectly possible.)
On the other hand, if Badenoch beats Truss out for third, then it's a bit different. For a start, I think Truss's votes split more evenly than Badenoch's. In which case, I think Sunak v Morduant is the likely final two.
A good chunk of the Truss column will be there for the same reason as those in the Rishi column. They want experience. If Truss is knocked out by Kemi then he sweeps up the Truss vote I reckon.
(1) Rishi did better than expected. Some people on here thought he was a busted flush after round one, and that he might not make the final two. Well... he's on 101 (+13) and (realistically) only needs 120 to make it to the final two. He might not make it, but he looks more likely to than yesterday.
(2) There is a path for Badenoch to make it, but it's a very narrow one. If she gets all Suella's vote, she leapfrogs Truss into third. But (realistically) votes don't split that easily. More likely she gets two-thirds, and Truss maintains a small lead over Badenoch.
(3) If TT pulls out now, and his vote goes mostly to Morduant, then she is also at 100+.
In other words, it's entirely possible that next round we get something like:
Rishi 107 Morduant 100 Truss 75 Badenoch 70
(Maths probably slightly off, but that's the area.)
And, realistically that probably means Morduant v Truss for the final two. (Although other combinations are perfectly possible.)
On the other hand, if Badenoch beats Truss out for third, then it's a bit different. For a start, I think Truss's votes split more evenly than Badenoch's. In which case, I think Sunak v Morduant is the likely final two.
This doesn't seem right to me. I think Rishi is going to get to the final 2. He may well be lending votes to other candidates, and ultimately some of the 54 voters for Braverman/Tugendhat are going to go for him. You've given him only 6 which seems very stingy.
I typed out a long winded Magic the Gathering analogy involving TT getting eaten by a dragon to explain why I think he’s smart to stay in. Decided it was a bit too nerdy.
Let me help: Tom is tapped out, has no cards in hand, and is dead on board.
For a taste of his whiskey would you give him some advice?
Yes. If you try again, don’t be so flipping boring. And if offered cabinet job you don’t like, take it.
"It might have worked for Penny, but not for me. I could feel myself dozing off in the heat. Along with almost everyone else packed into the room. Mordaunt may have a vision but she’s not a natural communicator. There’s a reason that almost no one outside of Westminster has heard of her. Ten minutes of one of her speeches is more than enough for anyone. Truth is, she’s a wee bit dull. Just like her book, Greater: Britain After the Storm, which deservedly went unnoticed by everyone. It’s doubtful even Penny got round to reading it. There may be less to her than meets the eye."
Bitchy stuff from the Guardian. Penny's got em worried
Or it was really hot in the room. Can't say I'd want to listen to anyone's speech in these conditions.
It's a rather different situation, but there did look to be some tactical voting in the final round to engineer Clarke into, and Portillo out of, the top two.
If Sunak has enough of a cushion, I can very well see a small group of his supporters helping Truss over the line on the basis that (while not a pushover by any means) she's the better opponent from Sunak's perspective.
On this basis, I think the markets overstate Mordaunt's chances a bit and understate both Sunak and Truss.
I typed out a long winded Magic the Gathering analogy involving TT getting eaten by a dragon to explain why I think he’s smart to stay in. Decided it was a bit too nerdy.
Let me help: Tom is tapped out, has no cards in hand, and is dead on board.
For a taste of his whiskey would you give him some advice?
He could start by offering some views on any issue that isn't foreign policy.
The right need to choose between Truss and Badenoch, or they will be left with Rishi v Mordaunt.
In reality, the “right” (Braverman + Badenoch + Truss) contains a decent chunk of liberals and modernisers who will head to Mordaunt if they have to.
Braverman + Badenoch + Truss = 140 votes.
Even if some drift to Mordaunt or Sunak, that's still a big enough bloc, and Badenoch could attract modernisers in her own right if she breaks through to the top tier.
I don't think the Truss bloc will just transfer over to Badenoch. She might be the biggest beneficiary, but I can't see her getting more than half. That makes Badenoch's path quite a narrow one.
(1) Rishi did better than expected. Some people on here thought he was a busted flush after round one, and that he might not make the final two. Well... he's on 101 (+13) and (realistically) only needs 120 to make it to the final two. He might not make it, but he looks more likely to than yesterday.
(2) There is a path for Badenoch to make it, but it's a very narrow one. If she gets all Suella's vote, she leapfrogs Truss into third. But (realistically) votes don't split that easily. More likely she gets two-thirds, and Truss maintains a small lead over Badenoch.
(3) If TT pulls out now, and his vote goes mostly to Morduant, then she is also at 100+.
In other words, it's entirely possible that next round we get something like:
Rishi 107 Morduant 100 Truss 75 Badenoch 70
(Maths probably slightly off, but that's the area.)
And, realistically that probably means Morduant v Truss for the final two. (Although other combinations are perfectly possible.)
On the other hand, if Badenoch beats Truss out for third, then it's a bit different. For a start, I think Truss's votes split more evenly than Badenoch's. In which case, I think Sunak v Morduant is the likely final two.
Rishi 107 Morduant 100 Truss 75 Badenoch 70
Yes I agree with all that post Robert. That looks the likely outcome from here. Betting wise that is a very strong guide.
Only a right wing stitch up, with Badenoch pulling out and cheerleading for Penny can possibly scupper the picture you have drawn. And even that might not work.
Phase one is over then. Next! Can Penny really beat Rishi in members vote? And will the sides the right wing press take swing it?
So stopping Truss getting the Braverman transfers is Penny's sole aim this weekend. If Truss doesnt get the bulk of them shes finished. Braverman is her most transfer friendly that was left.
I’m not sure of that. Badenoch fans might not be natural Penny fans, and Braverman support might go large for Badenoch. So I wouldn’t put any pressure on Penny for next round. Nor does Penny have to storm debates, just not bomb.
All the pressure is on Truss, both for the debates and stopping Badenoch getting Braverman votes.
Truss's launch was absolutely rubbished on Talk Radio, where her supporters should be. Wooden, cliched, uninspiring and desperate delivery they said.
"It might have worked for Penny, but not for me. I could feel myself dozing off in the heat. Along with almost everyone else packed into the room. Mordaunt may have a vision but she’s not a natural communicator. There’s a reason that almost no one outside of Westminster has heard of her. Ten minutes of one of her speeches is more than enough for anyone. Truth is, she’s a wee bit dull. Just like her book, Greater: Britain After the Storm, which deservedly went unnoticed by everyone. It’s doubtful even Penny got round to reading it. There may be less to her than meets the eye."
It's a rather different situation, but there did look to be some tactical voting in the final round to engineer Clarke into, and Portillo out of, the top two.
If Sunak has enough of a cushion, I can very well see a small group of his supporters helping Truss over the line on the basis that (while not a pushover by any means) she's the better opponent from Sunak's perspective.
On this basis, I think the markets overstate Mordaunt's chances a bit and understate both Sunak and Truss.
We have to give the Tories credit for constructing such a delight for game theorists
It looks to me as though a vote for Rishi is pointless. Because he loses to Mordaunt and loses to Truss.
So, if the up-coming Tory MP for Riddle-by-the-Diddle is voting Rishi at the moment but fears Truss, why does he stick with Rishi?
"It might have worked for Penny, but not for me. I could feel myself dozing off in the heat. Along with almost everyone else packed into the room. Mordaunt may have a vision but she’s not a natural communicator. There’s a reason that almost no one outside of Westminster has heard of her. Ten minutes of one of her speeches is more than enough for anyone. Truth is, she’s a wee bit dull. Just like her book, Greater: Britain After the Storm, which deservedly went unnoticed by everyone. It’s doubtful even Penny got round to reading it. There may be less to her than meets the eye."
I don't suppose it ever occurred to him how dull his writing is.. thought not...
So stopping Truss getting the Braverman transfers is Penny's sole aim this weekend. If Truss doesnt get the bulk of them shes finished. Braverman is her most transfer friendly that was left.
I’m not sure of that. Badenoch fans might not be natural Penny fans, and Braverman support might go large for Badenoch. So I wouldn’t put any pressure on Penny for next round. Nor does Penny have to storm debates, just not bomb.
All the pressure is on Truss, both for the debates and stopping Badenoch getting Braverman votes.
Truss's launch was absolutely rubbished on Talk Radio, where her supporters should be. Wooden, cliched, uninspiring and desperate delivery they said.
Which is surprising since it is often reported that there are queues to hear her speak.
The right need to choose between Truss and Badenoch, or they will be left with Rishi v Mordaunt.
In reality, the “right” (Braverman + Badenoch + Truss) contains a decent chunk of liberals and modernisers who will head to Mordaunt if they have to.
Braverman + Badenoch + Truss = 140 votes.
Even if some drift to Mordaunt or Sunak, that's still a big enough bloc, and Badenoch could attract modernisers in her own right if she breaks through to the top tier.
I don't think the Truss bloc will just transfer over to Badenoch. She might be the biggest beneficiary, but I can't see her getting more than half. That makes Badenoch's path quite a narrow one.
I'd be surprised if the vast majority of the Truss vote didn't shift to Kemi. I'd also be shocked if TT votes didn't shift over as a majority to Rishi rather than Penny. The former is in favour of "grown up government" which is probably more appealing to TT supporters vs another vapid blonde who can turn a phrase sometimes.
It's a rather different situation, but there did look to be some tactical voting in the final round to engineer Clarke into, and Portillo out of, the top two.
If Sunak has enough of a cushion, I can very well see a small group of his supporters helping Truss over the line on the basis that (while not a pushover by any means) she's the better opponent from Sunak's perspective.
On this basis, I think the markets overstate Mordaunt's chances a bit and understate both Sunak and Truss.
Depends how close Penny is. If shes on (say) 105 after the Braverman and Tugendhat transfers and there are approx 60 (again for example) Kemi votes to redistribute, Rishi will have very few 'spare' if any to redistribute himself without putting hinself in peril. Hes on 101, how many of the Braverman Tugendhat 59 might he get? Lets give him a generous 20. On 121 therefore as Kemi drops...... hes got no spares to offer to engineer anything
There are lots of potential axes on which this contest might turn. For example, Tugendhat's supporters. Earlier today he'd been placed furthest to the left- so potentially closest to Sunak. But he's presented himself as a fresh start candidate, so you might expect to see his supporters favour Mordaunt or Badenoch. He has also been a strong voice on standing up to Russia and China, and as far as I can tell Truss is the strongest other candidate on that policy.
You can make some similar arguments for supporters of Badenoch & Braverman - will they all fall in behind Truss, or might some prefer to support Mordaunt and put more distance between Johnson's ministry and the next government?
To a certain extent all this added complexity means that it's most likely that transfers will be more even then we expect at first glance, which favours the candidates who are already ahead at this stage - Sunak and Mordaunt.
However, Sunak is so weak in the member's polls that he really needed a very strong showing with MPs to give him a headstart. And he's not got it.
We've often looked at televised political debates and concluded that they've not changed much, and this may be true again this time. But my sense is that all of the leading three candidates are vulnerable in a number of ways, and a lacklustre performance from any of them could be fatal. Badenoch has the most to gain from an eye-catching performance. It will be interesting to see what Tugendhat has to say for himself - that may point to which of the other candidates he will end up supporting.
I assume that Labour would be most happy to face either Truss or Sunak. If it is down to those two it is difficult to call but I actually think Sunak could still win - Truss not as good a campaigner. Final contest will presumably be between Sunak and either Mordaunt, Truss or Badenoch - if either Truss and Badenoch pull out, the other's support could push Mordaunt out of the final two.
Tugendhat is portrayed as the moderate of the bunch, but one of the policies he has advocated - a no-fly zone in Ukraine - is more extreme than anything the other candidates, including now-eliminated Braverman, have said. I wish he could have found another way to portray himself as well 'ard. Nevertheless, he has a reassuring air and seems to command cross-part respect; could a cabinet role be offered, or does he have more power as a select comittee chair?
Mordaunt's alleged weaknesses are now being aired for all to see - not just the party but anyone in the country who cares to listen. There is of course a health warning, given who is making the critical comments. Her campaign has heavily emphasised a party less centralised around the leader and with a prominent cabinet; this is presumably key to the strong support from MPs. I think for Mordaunt we can't rule out the prospect of her slipping up in these later stages of the campaign, Andrea Leadsom style, in a way that shows her to be ill-prepared for the role.
Badenoch has certainly been very impressive so far, but she is a largely unknown quantity. Her supporters don't know her strengths or weaknesses and are able to project what they want. An advantage is that, as someone who was not a key player in the last government or even the one before it, she has less to answer for and can simply lay out principles, for the moment. There is the danger of electing her for the sake (very tempting for Tories) of discombobulating the Jolyons and Femis of this world, and then finding there is nothing to her. On the other hand, anything is a risk at this stage; why not take one that is also a historical first?
The right need to choose between Truss and Badenoch, or they will be left with Rishi v Mordaunt.
In reality, the “right” (Braverman + Badenoch + Truss) contains a decent chunk of liberals and modernisers who will head to Mordaunt if they have to.
Braverman + Badenoch + Truss = 140 votes.
Even if some drift to Mordaunt or Sunak, that's still a big enough bloc, and Badenoch could attract modernisers in her own right if she breaks through to the top tier.
I don't think the Truss bloc will just transfer over to Badenoch. She might be the biggest beneficiary, but I can't see her getting more than half. That makes Badenoch's path quite a narrow one.
Truss v Badenoch one is oven ready PM, experienced at top of government and foreign sectratry, the other a leap into the unknown, a novice foisted on the country as their PM.
Unfortunately for Truss though, she’s thought of by her own right wing MPs as being a pathetic clown.
Rishi v Penny it is, let’s move on to the next stage. 😁
So stopping Truss getting the Braverman transfers is Penny's sole aim this weekend. If Truss doesnt get the bulk of them shes finished. Braverman is her most transfer friendly that was left.
I’m not sure of that. Badenoch fans might not be natural Penny fans, and Braverman support might go large for Badenoch. So I wouldn’t put any pressure on Penny for next round. Nor does Penny have to storm debates, just not bomb.
All the pressure is on Truss, both for the debates and stopping Badenoch getting Braverman votes.
Truss's launch was absolutely rubbished on Talk Radio, where her supporters should be. Wooden, cliched, uninspiring and desperate delivery they said.
Which is surprising since it is often reported that there are queues to hear her speak.
"His men would follow him anywhere... out of sheer curiosity,"
So stopping Truss getting the Braverman transfers is Penny's sole aim this weekend. If Truss doesnt get the bulk of them shes finished. Braverman is her most transfer friendly that was left.
I’m not sure of that. Badenoch fans might not be natural Penny fans, and Braverman support might go large for Badenoch. So I wouldn’t put any pressure on Penny for next round. Nor does Penny have to storm debates, just not bomb.
All the pressure is on Truss, both for the debates and stopping Badenoch getting Braverman votes.
Truss's launch was absolutely rubbished on Talk Radio, where her supporters should be. Wooden, cliched, uninspiring and desperate delivery they said.
Which is surprising since it is often reported that there are queues to hear her speak.
If Badenoch has a strong debate, its still just about open I think. Truss might have to give way. Exciting.
It was 1975 when a woman could open a bank account.
Really? Wow.
Times have changed. And I bet people argued against that change when it happened...
Of course they did! Just as some married men saw their wives as their property until the courts finally ruled they were not.
Change upsets people.
The first woman allowed in the Stock exchange was in the 1970s
In the early 70s, women were allowed to apply for a mortgage for the first time
Sex discrimination was still legal until 1976
1980 - women were finally able to apply for credit cards by themselves
In the 90s we were finally allowed to deal with our own tax affairs instead of having our male relatives do it.
In the 90s, rape within marriage became an offence and I remember the howls of outrage from many (usually older) men.
Pubs could refuse to serve women until 1982
I have posted the stuff that happened in my own lifetime. Now ask me why I am not keen on rolling back hard won freedoms, on why I am sympathetic to "Woke"
And think how YOU would have felt if the above list was happening to you simply because of who you were.
In the last two decades at least 100,000 young white women, many under the age of consent, were trafficked, kidnapped and raped in the industrial towns of England. Leon reckons it could be up to a million, but he is prone to exaggeration.
I wonder how those figures compare with the number of young white women experiencing the same ordeal in what you consider to be the days of bondage, the 1970s and 1980s.
Woke has led to emancipation for you, maybe. It has turned into a living hell for some of your sisters, however.
I hope you are happy with this settlement.
Rape has not been caused by emancipation or "woke" of the 70s and 80s.
Its been caused by criminals committing crime, and people turning a blind eye to criminal behaviour.
Rape hasn't been caused by people calling themselves a man or a woman.
Its been caused by criminals committing crime, and people turning a blind eye to criminal behaviour.
The right need to choose between Truss and Badenoch, or they will be left with Rishi v Mordaunt.
In reality, the “right” (Braverman + Badenoch + Truss) contains a decent chunk of liberals and modernisers who will head to Mordaunt if they have to.
Braverman + Badenoch + Truss = 140 votes.
Even if some drift to Mordaunt or Sunak, that's still a big enough bloc, and Badenoch could attract modernisers in her own right if she breaks through to the top tier.
I don't think the Truss bloc will just transfer over to Badenoch. She might be the biggest beneficiary, but I can't see her getting more than half. That makes Badenoch's path quite a narrow one.
I'd be surprised if the vast majority of the Truss vote didn't shift to Kemi. I'd also be shocked if TT votes didn't shift over as a majority to Rishi rather than Penny. The former is in favour of "grown up government" which is probably more appealing to TT supporters vs another vapid blonde who can turn a phrase sometimes.
Except Sunak (probably) can't win, and is also reputedly unsound on Ukraine.
We have TV debates this weekend and the Sunday papers, too. In reality the public - and even Tory MPs - have not had much chance to see the contenders in action.
So stopping Truss getting the Braverman transfers is Penny's sole aim this weekend. If Truss doesnt get the bulk of them shes finished. Braverman is her most transfer friendly that was left.
I’m not sure of that. Badenoch fans might not be natural Penny fans, and Braverman support might go large for Badenoch. So I wouldn’t put any pressure on Penny for next round. Nor does Penny have to storm debates, just not bomb.
All the pressure is on Truss, both for the debates and stopping Badenoch getting Braverman votes.
Truss's launch was absolutely rubbished on Talk Radio, where her supporters should be. Wooden, cliched, uninspiring and desperate delivery they said.
Which is surprising since it is often reported that there are queues to hear her speak.
"His men would follow him anywhere... out of sheer curiosity,"
So stopping Truss getting the Braverman transfers is Penny's sole aim this weekend. If Truss doesnt get the bulk of them shes finished. Braverman is her most transfer friendly that was left.
I’m not sure of that. Badenoch fans might not be natural Penny fans, and Braverman support might go large for Badenoch. So I wouldn’t put any pressure on Penny for next round. Nor does Penny have to storm debates, just not bomb.
All the pressure is on Truss, both for the debates and stopping Badenoch getting Braverman votes.
Truss's launch was absolutely rubbished on Talk Radio, where her supporters should be. Wooden, cliched, uninspiring and desperate delivery they said.
Which is surprising since it is often reported that there are queues to hear her speak.
"His men would follow him anywhere... out of sheer curiosity,"
The right need to choose between Truss and Badenoch, or they will be left with Rishi v Mordaunt.
In reality, the “right” (Braverman + Badenoch + Truss) contains a decent chunk of liberals and modernisers who will head to Mordaunt if they have to.
Braverman + Badenoch + Truss = 140 votes.
Even if some drift to Mordaunt or Sunak, that's still a big enough bloc, and Badenoch could attract modernisers in her own right if she breaks through to the top tier.
I don't think the Truss bloc will just transfer over to Badenoch. She might be the biggest beneficiary, but I can't see her getting more than half. That makes Badenoch's path quite a narrow one.
I'd be surprised if the vast majority of the Truss vote didn't shift to Kemi. I'd also be shocked if TT votes didn't shift over as a majority to Rishi rather than Penny. The former is in favour of "grown up government" which is probably more appealing to TT supporters vs another vapid blonde who can turn a phrase sometimes.
Except Sunak (probably) can't win, and is also reputedly unsound on Ukraine.
I don't think a Sunak government will economically and militarly via supplies support Ukraine as much as we currently do. Surely this would be an issue for TT?
I reckon Braverman's vote transfers over to Badenoch and ahead of Truss.
Truss did better to expectation this round than Badenoch.
I don't think Badenoch gets sufficient transfer to overtake Truss.
I agree, actually, Badenoch didn't do well enough. She needed to be within 5-6 votes, and 15 votes is probably too much.
Yes: which is good news for Truss, as she inherits most of Badenoch's votes.
Looking at the odds, I think:
(1) As Sunak loses in the members vote against everyone, he is still far too short (2) Sunak v Truss is perfectly possible, if TT's vote splits relatively evenly between Sunak and Morduant. In which case, Truss is the winner. She's probably a small buy. (3) The likeliest outcome is still that Morduant makes the final two, and so she's still a small buy. (4) Badenoch's odds are about right - absent an amazing performance in the debates - because it's tough for her to overtake Truss. And even if she did overtake her, I don't see enough of Truss's support going to her to make the final two.
The right need to choose between Truss and Badenoch, or they will be left with Rishi v Mordaunt.
In reality, the “right” (Braverman + Badenoch + Truss) contains a decent chunk of liberals and modernisers who will head to Mordaunt if they have to.
Braverman + Badenoch + Truss = 140 votes.
Even if some drift to Mordaunt or Sunak, that's still a big enough bloc, and Badenoch could attract modernisers in her own right if she breaks through to the top tier.
I don't think the Truss bloc will just transfer over to Badenoch. She might be the biggest beneficiary, but I can't see her getting more than half. That makes Badenoch's path quite a narrow one.
I'd be surprised if the vast majority of the Truss vote didn't shift to Kemi. I'd also be shocked if TT votes didn't shift over as a majority to Rishi rather than Penny. The former is in favour of "grown up government" which is probably more appealing to TT supporters vs another vapid blonde who can turn a phrase sometimes.
Except Sunak (probably) can't win, and is also reputedly unsound on Ukraine.
At this stage everyone thought Dave couldn't win and we may as well appoint David Davis to the top job.
The campaign can change everything, we have no idea how the final two will campaign, how well they will hold up under scrutiny and whether the party members will want to gamble on a fresh face or not.
Comments
So sitting pretty if a campaign explodes.
Iain Martin
@iainmartin1
·
13m
The TV debates will now be critical to deciding it. Could blow up any of the contenders, make a star of an insurgent or make one of the frontrunners seem obvious winner. Will be focus grouped live and polled like mad by broadcasters and campaigns. What a four days in prospect.
He probably needs the next 24 hours at least to work out the best options for both himself and the party.
What is surprising is that he doesn't see a way Badenoch gets into the last 2.
Next stop the debates.
Penny has to keep pushing the polling and focus group results.
That’s a UK record in itself, but this app often undercooks extremes
40C a serious possibility
"It might have worked for Penny, but not for me. I could feel myself dozing off in the heat. Along with almost everyone else packed into the room. Mordaunt may have a vision but she’s not a natural communicator. There’s a reason that almost no one outside of Westminster has heard of her. Ten minutes of one of her speeches is more than enough for anyone. Truth is, she’s a wee bit dull. Just like her book, Greater: Britain After the Storm, which deservedly went unnoticed by everyone. It’s doubtful even Penny got round to reading it. There may be less to her than meets the eye."
As it stands, it now looks like two out of three from Sunak, Mordaunt, and Truss. Tugendhat has no chance and should be next out if he doesn't withdraw beforehand. Badenoch, unless she does well in the next round (that would see Tugendhat out) would be out the round after.
If Sunak misses out, bang goes the only grownup.
If Mordaunt misses out, the Conservatives lose their current fave.
If it's Truss, the True Believers won't he happy.
And it could be very close. The likely final three all have substantial but not overwhelming support. Unless there's some news, the final MP round could easily be 140-120-100, with pretty much any combination of names in frames for those scores on doors.
Good luck getting a happy ship out of that.
Close you eyes, listen to the mood music.
Last Sunday seemed likely Rishi, probably Truss, possibly Penny - but the voting tells us the right are not behind Truss. We can no longer add the Braverman and Badenoch totals onto Truss and say that blows Penny out the water. The right do not fear either Sunak or Penny, a lot of the Brave and Bad votes will go to Rishi and Penny, the mood of the CPP is telling us! Truss is an ex contender, the drapes are drawn on her chances, PM Liz is no more 🥳
I’ll tell you what for nothing, there is more chance of Badenoch coming third behind Mourdant than Truss coming second in next ballot as Bravermans vote goes 80% to Badenoch.
Boris influence over the party, Mogg influence over ERG, gone the way of the Dodo, the Auk, the Wooly Wooly Mammoth doing it in herds.
Pish. Write it, and post it!
1.2 Rishi Sunak 83%
1.37 Penny Mordaunt 73%
2.86 Liz Truss 35%
11 Kemi Badenoch 9%
32 Tom Tugendhat
He's got two very good reasons not to drop out quite yet. Firstly, he's still marketable - it's disappointing for him to go backwards but his endorsement matters and there is a discussion to be had about who gets it. Secondly, he gets to participate in the debates on Channel 4 tomorrow and ITV on Sunday. For a relative unknown looking to raise his profile and cabinet credentials, that's incredibly attractive.
What isn't attractive, though, is a further decline in his vote on Monday afternoon - he's got less leverage dropping out with 15 votes or something. My bet is that, first thing on Monday, his team will say "Tom did amazingly in the debates, but soundings we have taken indicate he's not going to get into the top two (!) so we'll not prolong it".
We have TV debates this weekend and the Sunday papers, too. In reality the public - and even Tory MPs - have not had much chance to see the contenders in action.
But you know the Tories better than most of us.
Sunak and Mordaunt have the best chance against Starmer . Truss would spend the next two years as a hostage to the ERG and would likely cause a trade war with the EU .
As a Labour supporter I should be cheering on Truss but simply can’t stomach the thought of her in no 10.
He's possibly the least likely to say something egregiously stupid and blow himself up.
In reality, the “right” (Braverman + Badenoch + Truss) contains a decent chunk of liberals and modernisers who will head to Mordaunt if they have to.
Off to find a jumper.
(1) Rishi did better than expected. Some people on here thought he was a busted flush after round one, and that he might not make the final two. Well... he's on 101 (+13) and (realistically) only needs 120 to make it to the final two. He might not make it, but he looks more likely to than yesterday.
(2) There is a path for Badenoch to make it, but it's a very narrow one. If she gets all Suella's vote, she leapfrogs Truss into third. But (realistically) votes don't split that easily. More likely she gets two-thirds, and Truss maintains a small lead over Badenoch.
(3) If TT pulls out now, and his vote goes mostly to Morduant, then she is also at 100+.
In other words, it's entirely possible that next round we get something like:
Rishi 107
Morduant 100
Truss 75
Badenoch 70
(Maths probably slightly off, but that's the area.)
And, realistically that probably means Morduant v Truss for the final two. (Although other combinations are perfectly possible.)
On the other hand, if Badenoch beats Truss out for third, then it's a bit different. For a start, I think Truss's votes split more evenly than Badenoch's. In which case, I think Sunak v Morduant is the likely final two.
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/tom-tugendhat-tory-leadership-uk-could-expel-russians-130233699.html
Yes, I think the maximum somewhere is very likely to be higher than that - the problem is as likely to be locational as a general underestimation, in that forecasting the exact location of the hottest spot is likely to be lost in averaging.
Still don't think your map showing 40C across the board from the south coast to Selby is that likely.
"2/3 of my rivals come from imported families. That. Is. A. Disgrace!"
All the pressure is on Truss, both for the debates and stopping Badenoch getting Braverman votes.
Even if some drift to Mordaunt or Sunak, that's still a big enough bloc, and Badenoch could attract modernisers in her own right if she breaks through to the top tier.
He may well be lending votes to other candidates, and ultimately some of the 54 voters for Braverman/Tugendhat are going to go for him. You've given him only 6 which seems very stingy.
I don’t think Rishi picking up 13 of those is such a great performance.
Can't say I'd want to listen to anyone's speech in these conditions.
It's a rather different situation, but there did look to be some tactical voting in the final round to engineer Clarke into, and Portillo out of, the top two.
If Sunak has enough of a cushion, I can very well see a small group of his supporters helping Truss over the line on the basis that (while not a pushover by any means) she's the better opponent from Sunak's perspective.
On this basis, I think the markets overstate Mordaunt's chances a bit and understate both Sunak and Truss.
Morduant 100
Truss 75
Badenoch 70
Yes I agree with all that post Robert. That looks the likely outcome from here. Betting wise that is a very strong guide.
Only a right wing stitch up, with Badenoch pulling out and cheerleading for Penny can possibly scupper the picture you have drawn. And even that might not work.
Phase one is over then. Next! Can Penny really beat Rishi in members vote? And will the sides the right wing press take swing it?
Some good stuff in it but long-winded.
It looks to me as though a vote for Rishi is pointless. Because he loses to Mordaunt and loses to Truss.
So, if the up-coming Tory MP for Riddle-by-the-Diddle is voting Rishi at the moment but fears Truss, why does he stick with Rishi?
Hes on 101, how many of the Braverman Tugendhat 59 might he get? Lets give him a generous 20. On 121 therefore as Kemi drops...... hes got no spares to offer to engineer anything
We just had the quarter finals.
You can make some similar arguments for supporters of Badenoch & Braverman - will they all fall in behind Truss, or might some prefer to support Mordaunt and put more distance between Johnson's ministry and the next government?
To a certain extent all this added complexity means that it's most likely that transfers will be more even then we expect at first glance, which favours the candidates who are already ahead at this stage - Sunak and Mordaunt.
However, Sunak is so weak in the member's polls that he really needed a very strong showing with MPs to give him a headstart. And he's not got it.
We've often looked at televised political debates and concluded that they've not changed much, and this may be true again this time. But my sense is that all of the leading three candidates are vulnerable in a number of ways, and a lacklustre performance from any of them could be fatal. Badenoch has the most to gain from an eye-catching performance. It will be interesting to see what Tugendhat has to say for himself - that may point to which of the other candidates he will end up supporting.
Tugendhat is portrayed as the moderate of the bunch, but one of the policies he has advocated - a no-fly zone in Ukraine - is more extreme than anything the other candidates, including now-eliminated Braverman, have said. I wish he could have found another way to portray himself as well 'ard. Nevertheless, he has a reassuring air and seems to command cross-part respect; could a cabinet role be offered, or does he have more power as a select comittee chair?
Mordaunt's alleged weaknesses are now being aired for all to see - not just the party but anyone in the country who cares to listen. There is of course a health warning, given who is making the critical comments. Her campaign has heavily emphasised a party less centralised around the leader and with a prominent cabinet; this is presumably key to the strong support from MPs. I think for Mordaunt we can't rule out the prospect of her slipping up in these later stages of the campaign, Andrea Leadsom style, in a way that shows her to be ill-prepared for the role.
Badenoch has certainly been very impressive so far, but she is a largely unknown quantity. Her supporters don't know her strengths or weaknesses and are able to project what they want. An advantage is that, as someone who was not a key player in the last government or even the one before it, she has less to answer for and can simply lay out principles, for the moment. There is the danger of electing her for the sake (very tempting for Tories) of discombobulating the Jolyons and Femis of this world, and then finding there is nothing to her. On the other hand, anything is a risk at this stage; why not take one that is also a historical first?
Unfortunately for Truss though, she’s thought of by her own right wing MPs as being a pathetic clown.
Rishi v Penny it is, let’s move on to the next stage. 😁
Its been caused by criminals committing crime, and people turning a blind eye to criminal behaviour.
Looking at the odds, I think:
(1) As Sunak loses in the members vote against everyone, he is still far too short
(2) Sunak v Truss is perfectly possible, if TT's vote splits relatively evenly between Sunak and Morduant. In which case, Truss is the winner. She's probably a small buy.
(3) The likeliest outcome is still that Morduant makes the final two, and so she's still a small buy.
(4) Badenoch's odds are about right - absent an amazing performance in the debates - because it's tough for her to overtake Truss. And even if she did overtake her, I don't see enough of Truss's support going to her to make the final two.
Rishi 155
Mordaunt 98
Truss/ Badenock 95
(yes it's way more likely to be the case were Truss kicked out on Monday / Tuesday)
is there any chance that Mordaunt / Badenock will walk away to unite the party and have a summer without two Tory leaders attacking each other?
The campaign can change everything, we have no idea how the final two will campaign, how well they will hold up under scrutiny and whether the party members will want to gamble on a fresh face or not.
Calling the result right now is a fool's errand.