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The second round vote – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,625
edited July 2022 in General
The second round vote – politicalbetting.com

? TORY LEADERSHIP RESULTS – ROUND TWORishi Sunak – 101Penny Mordaunt – 83Liz Truss – 64Kemi Badenoch – 49Tom Tugendhat – 32Suella Braverman – 27 (OUT)

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Comments

  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    TT to fold?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,942
    TiT should pull out
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,964
    Truss +8
    Badenoch +6
    Mordaunt +4
    Sunak +2
    Braverman -3
    Tugendhat -13

    Tugendhat has to jump on that. Decent for Truss, but Mordaunt still heading for No 10 I think.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,251
    Bad news for Truss.

    I reckon Braverman's vote transfers over to Badenoch and ahead of Truss.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,251
    Final two looking like Sunak and the one whose sense of humour is just like mine.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,086
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Final two looking like Sunak and the one whose sense of humour is just like mine.

    I don't think so. I think Penny misses out.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,506
    Kemi to knock out Truss and then absorb her votes to beat Penny into the final two please!
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,251
    Mordaunt and Sunak presumably both on the phone to Tugendhat right now offering him the Chancellor job.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    Does Kemi prefer Truss over Penny?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,251
    NEW The final two candidates in the Conservative leadership race will not be known until **Wednesday evening** next week, I understand.

    Members of the 1922 committee have decided to have three ballots on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday next week after #PMQs. #ToryLeadershipRace

    https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1547576982988156933
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,086
    Sunak v Kemi, I reckon.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 25,582
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Final two looking like Sunak and the one whose sense of humour is just like mine.

    I'm not convinced Mordaunt is going to get to the final two.

    If Truss can get more transfers from Braverman and Badenoch than Mordaunt can, then she might not make the final 3.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,845
    Brady is expecting a withdrawal by the sound of what he said.

    There is no path to victory for TT. Carrying on just becomes more humiliating.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,820
    Mr. Eagles, if Sunak has the chance to determine his opponent (far from certain, I know) and can pick between Mordaunt and Badenoch, who would he go for?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,251
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Does Kemi prefer Truss over Penny?

    Young Cardinals prefer old Popes.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 32,291
    After Suella Braverman left the contest:-

    1.78 Penny Mordaunt 56%
    4.2 Rishi Sunak 24%
    6 Liz Truss 17%
    23 Kemi Badenoch 4%
    140 Tom Tugendhat
    250 Dominic Raab
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,506
    tlg86 said:

    Sunak v Kemi, I reckon.

    Yes, Kemi takes the majority of Braverman's votes, knocks out Truss and absorbs Truss's votes to scrape into the final two.

    Smashes Rishi to bits and becomes PM.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,394
    edited July 2022
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Does Kemi prefer Truss over Penny?

    Silly question really. Vast number of her supporters are not under her control. They personally would back Truss?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,251
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Eagles, if Sunak has the chance to determine his opponent (far from certain, I know) and can pick between Mordaunt and Badenoch, who would he go for?

    He'll go for Badenoch, which tells how useless she is.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,942
    tlg86 said:

    Sunak v Kemi, I reckon.

    Kemi would win with the membership IMO.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,086
    I reckon Sunak and Truss/Badenoch gang up to block Mordaunt.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,565
    edited July 2022
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Bad news for Truss.

    I reckon Braverman's vote transfers over to Badenoch and ahead of Truss.

    Interesting next round. If they break mostly for Truss then she'll be looking good. Could get a reasonable chunk of Badenoch's support in due course too.

    But, if they break for Badenoch, then it's potentially a toss-up which of Truss and Badenoch make the final three.

    TT's votes will presumably got to mostly to Sunak and Mordaunt in some combo, either after the next round or in the next round if he drops out.

    Edit: Also, the direction of TT's vote could well determine whether Sunak makes it or not. Big transfer and he's home and dry. But if many go to Mordaunt then he could, potentially, be squeezed.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    GIN1138 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Sunak v Kemi, I reckon.

    Kemi would win with the membership IMO.
    I think she would yes.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,750
    edited July 2022
    tlg86 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Final two looking like Sunak and the one whose sense of humour is just like mine.

    I don't think so. I think Penny misses out.
    I think Truss or Badenoch makes it. Assume Penny gets ALL TT's votes (in reality some will go Sunak): that's 115. The right-wing candidates are on 140.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,800
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    After Suella Braverman left the contest:-

    1.78 Penny Mordaunt 56%
    4.2 Rishi Sunak 24%
    6 Liz Truss 17%
    23 Kemi Badenoch 4%
    140 Tom Tugendhat
    250 Dominic Raab

    I'm not sure about this. I'm not seeing where Mordaunt now get's her votes from to be safe.
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,273
    GIN1138 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Sunak v Kemi, I reckon.

    Kemi would win with the membership IMO.
    I don't think Sunak beats any of them at the membership stage
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,964
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Bad news for Truss.

    I reckon Braverman's vote transfers over to Badenoch and ahead of Truss.

    Truss did better to expectation this round than Badenoch.

    I don't think Badenoch gets sufficient transfer to overtake Truss.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,809
    Pulpstar said:

    Truss +8
    Badenoch +6
    Mordaunt +4
    Sunak +2
    Braverman -3
    Tugendhat -13

    Tugendhat has to jump on that. Decent for Truss, but Mordaunt still heading for No 10 I think.

    What are these numbers?

    They are not the changes from Round 1.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 25,582
    MaxPB said:

    tlg86 said:

    Sunak v Kemi, I reckon.

    Yes, Kemi takes the majority of Braverman's votes, knocks out Truss and absorbs Truss's votes to scrape into the final two.

    Smashes Rishi to bits and becomes PM.
    Implausible.

    Braverman only has 27 votes and Truss is 15 in the lead and should probably get some of Braverman's votes. Even if Kemi takes the majority of them, she still likely wouldn't get ahead of Truss.

    More plausible is Braverman and Badenoch can get Truss ahead of Mordaunt, but even that will still be a challenge.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,964
    MikeL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Truss +8
    Badenoch +6
    Mordaunt +4
    Sunak +2
    Braverman -3
    Tugendhat -13

    Tugendhat has to jump on that. Decent for Truss, but Mordaunt still heading for No 10 I think.

    What are these numbers?

    They are not the changes from Round 1.
    Changes to Smarkets model expectation
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,726
    Mordaunt +14
    Truss +14
    Sunak +13
    Badenoch +9
    Tugendhat -5
    Braverman -5

    Sunak probably should pick up enough transfers to make the final two, but he's not going to be way out in front.

    Badenoch would have to win over some supporters from the front three with a good performance in the debate to stay in the contest.

    I wonder who Tissue Price and Tugendhat will support when they withdraw?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,394
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Final two looking like Sunak and the one whose sense of humour is just like mine.

    You could praise Boris as being a great PM on a stage, and keep a straight face?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 64,079
    I’m happy with Badenoch or Mordaunt


    Fuck off tom tugwank
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,168
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Does Kemi prefer Truss over Penny?

    That is to assume that any candidate has in their gift the votes of their supporters so far. Pretty odd assumption that they control even a majority of those votes.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,383
    MaxPB said:

    tlg86 said:

    Sunak v Kemi, I reckon.

    Yes, Kemi takes the majority of Braverman's votes, knocks out Truss and absorbs Truss's votes to scrape into the final two.

    Smashes Rishi to bits and becomes PM.
    2 ?
    3 Profit.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 64,079
    I’m back in the UK for the first time in 3 months

    Nice day
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 32,291
    edited July 2022
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    After Suella Braverman left the contest:-

    1.78 Penny Mordaunt 56%
    4.2 Rishi Sunak 24%
    6 Liz Truss 17%
    23 Kemi Badenoch 4%
    140 Tom Tugendhat
    250 Dominic Raab

    Kemi drifting after the result:-

    1.77 Penny Mordaunt 56%
    4.5 Rishi Sunak 22%
    6 Liz Truss 17%
    27 Kemi Badenoch
    110 Tom Tugendhat
    240 Dominic Raab
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,541
    Now Suella Braverman is out of the leadership contest, does she revert to supporting the repeatedly-affirmed policy of the government of which she is a member - to remain in the ECHR? Or does she resign? https://twitter.com/suellabraverman/status/1547516107518509057
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,589
    tlg86 said:

    I reckon Sunak and Truss/Badenoch gang up to block Mordaunt.

    I doubt it. Truss and Badenoch are not friends right now. I think they’ll fail. Tug will drop out and endorse Mordaunt, and his supporters will go to her and Rishy.

    Incidentally I remember where I heard “Mordaunt” before. There was a 48 gun Ship-of-The-Line in the 17th century called HMS Mordaunt. Which means I think we might have a final two of Risky and The Fourth Rate.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 13,357
    If TT voters break for Penny shes home and hosed for the final 2 i think. Its then down to rishi versus the right for the other slot
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,565
    Wee bit of movement against Truss...
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,705
    LostPassword said:

    Mordaunt +14
    Truss +14
    Sunak +13
    Badenoch +9
    Tugendhat -5
    Braverman -5

    Sunak probably should pick up enough transfers to make the final two, but he's not going to be way out in front.

    Badenoch would have to win over some supporters from the front three with a good performance in the debate to stay in the contest.

    I wonder who Tissue Price and Tugendhat will support when they withdraw?

    Mordaunt +16?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,376
    edited July 2022
    I would suggest the conservative mps may well be aware that if Penny does not get through the membership, who overwhelming seem to want her to win, will be very annoyed and upset
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,506
    BartholomewRoberts said:

    MaxPB said:

    tlg86 said:

    Sunak v Kemi, I reckon.

    Yes, Kemi takes the majority of Braverman's votes, knocks out Truss and absorbs Truss's votes to scrape into the final two.

    Smashes Rishi to bits and becomes PM.
    Implausible.

    Braverman only has 27 votes and Truss is 15 in the lead and should probably get some of Braverman's votes. Even if Kemi takes the majority of them, she still likely wouldn't get ahead of Truss.

    More plausible is Braverman and Badenoch can get Truss ahead of Mordaunt, but even that will still be a challenge.
    I think Kemi now has credibility to draw votes away from Liz as well. If she had not gained any in the previous round then it would be curtains, but for now I think she's got a route to the final two.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,809
    I'm afraid Penny is now dependent on Sunak supporters.

    She is going to have to get some Sunak supporters to switch.

    Sunak supporters need to wake up and realise that Truss will be a disaster and they have to get Penny into the Final.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,086
    NickPalmer said:

    tlg86 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Final two looking like Sunak and the one whose sense of humour is just like mine.

    I don't think so. I think Penny misses out.
    I think Truss or Badenoch makes it. Assume Penny gets ALL TT's votes (in reality some will go Sunak): that's 115. The right-wing candidates are on 140.
    That YouGov poll could be what does for Mordaunt.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,767
    Do we think Kemi’s voters are all some kind of unified bloc who are going to move whole scale to Liz Truss?

    I’m very unconvinced.

    It’s Mordaunt vs AN other right now. I’m still not convinced Rishi will make it.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,383
    edited July 2022
    Just listening on R5L. The Tory member, I don't know who, burbled for several minutes about trans and Brexit and tactical voting and tax cuts.

    Interviewer: Is there any issue other than cost of living?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,750
    The other point is that if the right-wing vote holds at 140, the split between Sunak and Mordaunt of the other 216 is tricky, and Truss could actually come first.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1547585352541491200

    Michael Gove (Kemi's team) and Gavin Williamson (Rishi's team) look well placed to shape who makes the final two on Tuesday night when Kemi Badenoch's votes are up for grabs. My guess: Sunak's team will try to engineer Truss, not Mordaunt, into the final two. #ToryLeadershipRace
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 13,357
    edited July 2022
    Truss plus 8 with Zahawis votes to cannibilise on her launch day is poor. And whilst i can see Braverman to Badenoch i dont think Kemis support goes in bulk to Truss if Kemi drops before Liz.
    Its Sunak or Kemi vs Mordaunt i think
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,168
    Selebian said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Bad news for Truss.

    I reckon Braverman's vote transfers over to Badenoch and ahead of Truss.

    Interesting next round. If they break mostly for Truss then she'll be looking good. Could get a reasonable chunk of Badenoch's support in due course too.

    But, if they break for Badenoch, then it's potentially a toss-up which of Truss and Badenoch make the final three.

    TT's votes will presumably got to mostly to Sunak and Mordaunt in some combo, either after the next round or in the next round if he drops out.

    Edit: Also, the direction of TT's vote could well determine whether Sunak makes it or not. Big transfer and he's home and dry. But if many go to Mordaunt then he could, potentially, be squeezed.
    Conversely, how many of Sunak's votes might go to Mordaunt, if it were to appear there was a danger of her getting knocked ?

    If it's clear to the more centrist MPs that (eg) Truss would almost certainly beat Sunak in a vote of the membership, dare they risk that ?

    I don't think you can assume that anyone's existing votes are 100% solid going into the next round.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,565
    dixiedean said:

    MaxPB said:

    tlg86 said:

    Sunak v Kemi, I reckon.

    Yes, Kemi takes the majority of Braverman's votes, knocks out Truss and absorbs Truss's votes to scrape into the final two.

    Smashes Rishi to bits and becomes PM.
    2 ?
    3 Profit.
    Well, short term profit for me. With 2 being collect winnings. I didn't trade out all my stake from long ago :smile:
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 32,291
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    After Suella Braverman left the contest:-

    1.78 Penny Mordaunt 56%
    4.2 Rishi Sunak 24%
    6 Liz Truss 17%
    23 Kemi Badenoch 4%
    140 Tom Tugendhat
    250 Dominic Raab

    Kemi drifting after the result:-

    1.77 Penny Mordaunt 56%
    4.5 Rishi Sunak 22%
    6 Liz Truss 17%
    27 Kemi Badenoch
    110 Tom Tugendhat
    240 Dominic Raab
    They can't give Kemi away in the betting for the final two. She's longer there than for next PM:-
    1.74 Penny Mordaunt 57%
    4.5 Rishi Sunak 22%
    6.2 Liz Truss 16%
    28 Kemi Badenoch
    300 Tom Tugendhat
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,767
    Tugendhat staying in the race. Yawn. Just quit man.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,820
    Mr. Leon, why the hatred for Tugendhat?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,168
    tlg86 said:

    I reckon Sunak and Truss/Badenoch gang up to block Mordaunt.

    And how do they do that ?
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 25,582
    MaxPB said:

    BartholomewRoberts said:

    MaxPB said:

    tlg86 said:

    Sunak v Kemi, I reckon.

    Yes, Kemi takes the majority of Braverman's votes, knocks out Truss and absorbs Truss's votes to scrape into the final two.

    Smashes Rishi to bits and becomes PM.
    Implausible.

    Braverman only has 27 votes and Truss is 15 in the lead and should probably get some of Braverman's votes. Even if Kemi takes the majority of them, she still likely wouldn't get ahead of Truss.

    More plausible is Braverman and Badenoch can get Truss ahead of Mordaunt, but even that will still be a challenge.
    I think Kemi now has credibility to draw votes away from Liz as well. If she had not gained any in the previous round then it would be curtains, but for now I think she's got a route to the final two.
    Its a possible route, but not a plausible one, and its less plausible today than it was yesterday. She fell further behind Liz today, had she caught up a bit then overtaking would be more plausible, but instead Braverman's backers are going to have to think whether they want Mordaunt v Sunak in the run-off, or go for Truss?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 32,291
    numbertwelve said:

    Tugendhat staying in the race. Yawn. Just quit man.

    There is a chance the Sunday papers will blow up one of the other campaigns.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,086
    OnboardG1 said:

    tlg86 said:

    I reckon Sunak and Truss/Badenoch gang up to block Mordaunt.

    I doubt it. Truss and Badenoch are not friends right now. I think they’ll fail. Tug will drop out and endorse Mordaunt, and his supporters will go to her and Rishy.

    Incidentally I remember where I heard “Mordaunt” before. There was a 48 gun Ship-of-The-Line in the 17th century called HMS Mordaunt. Which means I think we might have a final two of Risky and The Fourth Rate.
    Sorry, to be clear, I mean the final round when it is:

    Sunak
    Mordaunt
    Truss or Badenoch

    Then Mordaunt needs to be able to clear 119 herself. If she doesn't, I think the other two make sure she goes out because of the YouGov poll.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 6,000
    TT can more or less get Mordaunt over the line and into the final two by endorsing her. Add on say 27 of his 32 votes and that leaves her only 10 short. One assumes she’d get that from other transfers.

    Conversely if he endorses Sunak, then I think we’re looking at PM Truss.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,506
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Eagles, if Sunak has the chance to determine his opponent (far from certain, I know) and can pick between Mordaunt and Badenoch, who would he go for?

    He'll go for Badenoch, which tells how useless she is.
    Yeah, if I had to choose to face one or the other I'd face the emptier (than him) vessel rather than the one who actually has ideas and a vision. Penny feels like a house of cards to me, her support is wide but probably very shallow and brittle and in a campaign to win actual votes I think she'd get found out.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    tlg86 said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    tlg86 said:

    I reckon Sunak and Truss/Badenoch gang up to block Mordaunt.

    I doubt it. Truss and Badenoch are not friends right now. I think they’ll fail. Tug will drop out and endorse Mordaunt, and his supporters will go to her and Rishy.

    Incidentally I remember where I heard “Mordaunt” before. There was a 48 gun Ship-of-The-Line in the 17th century called HMS Mordaunt. Which means I think we might have a final two of Risky and The Fourth Rate.
    Sorry, to be clear, I mean the final round when it is:

    Sunak
    Mordaunt
    Truss or Badenoch

    Then Mordaunt needs to be able to clear 119 herself. If she doesn't, I think the other two make sure she goes out because of the YouGov poll.
    Although focus groups are most certainly on Penny's side
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,086
    Nigelb said:

    tlg86 said:

    I reckon Sunak and Truss/Badenoch gang up to block Mordaunt.

    And how do they do that ?
    Split their votes equally to knock out Mordaunt (obviously not if Penny clears 119).
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,394
    edited July 2022
    ThePoliticalParty said:

    Beth Rigby really isn't very articulate

    She is articulating it looks like Sunak (she calls sun knack) plus 1 of Truss or Penny.

    We could have told her that much last Sunday! 🤭

    But the bit the TV commentators are not telling us is the BIG BIG change. Last Sunday it looked like Truss into last 2 possibly Penny, now it’s Penny in last 2 possibly Truss. The week has gone differently than expected. There is no appetite on the right for Truss - and not enough fear on right of Penny or Sunak. 🥳
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,964
    wooliedyed said:

    Truss plus 8 with Zahawis votes to cannibilise on her launch day is poor. And whilst i can see Braverman to Badenoch i dont think Kemis support goes in bulk to Truss if Kemi drops before Liz.
    Its Sunak or Kemi vs Mordaunt i think

    My numbers were against expectation.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,750
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    After Suella Braverman left the contest:-

    1.78 Penny Mordaunt 56%
    4.2 Rishi Sunak 24%
    6 Liz Truss 17%
    23 Kemi Badenoch 4%
    140 Tom Tugendhat
    250 Dominic Raab

    Kemi drifting after the result:-

    1.77 Penny Mordaunt 56%
    4.5 Rishi Sunak 22%
    6 Liz Truss 17%
    27 Kemi Badenoch
    110 Tom Tugendhat
    240 Dominic Raab
    1.77 for Penny looks too short, and 6 for Truss and 27 for Badenoch too long. That said, I think Truss may be better-placed thank Badenoch to beat Sunak.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    edited July 2022
    numbertwelve said:

    Tugendhat staying in the race. Yawn. Just quit man.

    That's interesting because it means there'll be another round of voting where votes can shuffle around between the genuine contenders without any risk.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,801
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    numbertwelve said:

    Tugendhat staying in the race. Yawn. Just quit man.

    There is a chance the Sunday papers will blow up one of the other campaigns.
    I am sure Big Dom has nothing to add....
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,845
    The 22 should have moved the minimum votes to continue up to 40.

    I don't understand why they kept it at 30.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    Scott_xP said:

    Now Suella Braverman is out of the leadership contest, does she revert to supporting the repeatedly-affirmed policy of the government of which she is a member - to remain in the ECHR? Or does she resign? https://twitter.com/suellabraverman/status/1547516107518509057

    What a ridiculous take. Is every leadership contender supposed to treat every aspect of their manifesto as a resigning issue? Or do you imagine that all the other candidates agree on everything?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 64,079
    edited July 2022
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Leon, why the hatred for Tugendhat?

    He’s one of those old school posh military Tories that thinks *just because*

    At least Ben Wallace has self awareness

    Enough. The Tories REALLY need to steer away from posh white men this time it they are to have any chance of winning rhe GE. And TiT won’t admit defeat.
  • novanova Posts: 898
    NickPalmer said:

    The other point is that if the right-wing vote holds at 140, the split between Sunak and Mordaunt of the other 216 is tricky, and Truss could actually come first.

    This seems to make the most sense.

    Mordaunt is still 36 votes short. Given that Rishi still needs 18, then between them they need to be taking a lot of votes from the candidates well to their right.

    Rishi/Truss seems the most likely - although more complex Tory politics might say differently.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    TT staying makes it easier for Truss .

    The only vote pool to be redistributed now is Braverman which could go by a clear majority to her . This would then allow her to say there’s new momentum and she would be very close to Mordaunt .

    I really think TT needs to withdraw . I’d expect quite a few of his votes to go to Mordaunt.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 25,582
    MoonRabbit said:

    ThePoliticalParty said:

    Beth Rigby really isn't very articulate

    She is articulating it looks like Sunak (she calls sun knack) plus 1 of Truss our Penny.

    We could have told her that much last Sunday! 🤭

    But the bit the TV commentators are not telling us is the BIG BIG change. Last Sunday it looked like Truss into last 2 possibly Penny, now it’s Penny in last 2 possibly Truss. The week has gone differently than expected. There is no appetite on the right for Truss - and not enough fear on right of Penny or Sunak. 🥳
    To be fair they spent all day yesterday talking about Penny though.

    Today I feel was a bad result for Penny after the success she had yesterday, plus who was eliminated yesterday. With Hunt and Zahawi eliminated and Penny supposedly having "the big mo" I'd have expected Penny to have increased her lead over Truss, but it didn't increase.

    Penny might get some from Tugendhat. Truss will get more from Badenoch and Braverman I expect.

    Very plausible that Penny will come third.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,726
    BartholomewRoberts said:

    MaxPB said:

    tlg86 said:

    Sunak v Kemi, I reckon.

    Yes, Kemi takes the majority of Braverman's votes, knocks out Truss and absorbs Truss's votes to scrape into the final two.

    Smashes Rishi to bits and becomes PM.
    Implausible.

    Braverman only has 27 votes and Truss is 15 in the lead and should probably get some of Braverman's votes. Even if Kemi takes the majority of them, she still likely wouldn't get ahead of Truss.

    More plausible is Braverman and Badenoch can get Truss ahead of Mordaunt, but even that will still be a challenge.
    Badenoch would likely have to win the support of the some of the MPs who voted Truss in this round to overhaul her, as she won't take more than three-quarters of the Braverman transfers.

    There's a whole weekend. I guess it's possible. I'm interested in whether Mordaunt can overhaul Sunak. I think he might get squeezed out.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,592
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    I would suggest the conservative mps may well be aware that if Penny does not get through the membership, who overwhelming seem to want her to win, will be very annoyed and upset

    Yes indeed. MPs ruling out their strong favourite would not play well.

  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,942
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    numbertwelve said:

    Tugendhat staying in the race. Yawn. Just quit man.

    There is a chance the Sunday papers will blow up one of the other campaigns.
    We're still waiting for Ben to blow up Rishi Rich...
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,726
    Pro_Rata said:

    LostPassword said:

    Mordaunt +14
    Truss +14
    Sunak +13
    Badenoch +9
    Tugendhat -5
    Braverman -5

    Sunak probably should pick up enough transfers to make the final two, but he's not going to be way out in front.

    Badenoch would have to win over some supporters from the front three with a good performance in the debate to stay in the contest.

    I wonder who Tissue Price and Tugendhat will support when they withdraw?

    Mordaunt +16?
    Yes, I remembered Mordaunt's previous score wrong.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 13,357
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1547585352541491200

    Michael Gove (Kemi's team) and Gavin Williamson (Rishi's team) look well placed to shape who makes the final two on Tuesday night when Kemi Badenoch's votes are up for grabs. My guess: Sunak's team will try to engineer Truss, not Mordaunt, into the final two. #ToryLeadershipRace

    If Penny is on anything more than about 115 by Tuesday then there is no chance of them risking a stitch up, you risk your own guy falling.
    The other factor is whether the ERG are prepared to back Truss. No sign they are remotely keen on her thus far.
  • IcarusIcarus Posts: 1,017
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    numbertwelve said:

    Tugendhat staying in the race. Yawn. Just quit man.

    There is a chance the Sunday papers will blow up one of the other campaigns.
    or ALL of the other campaigns -Truss and Mordaunt in particular look very vulnerable to spot light being shone on them.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,168
    moonshine said:

    TT can more or less get Mordaunt over the line and into the final two by endorsing her. Add on say 27 of his 32 votes and that leaves her only 10 short. One assumes she’d get that from other transfers.

    Conversely if he endorses Sunak, then I think we’re looking at PM Truss.

    An interesting point.
    He has a double incentive to consider that. First, Ukraine; second, the likelihood of a senior cabinet post.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,251
    MaxPB said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Eagles, if Sunak has the chance to determine his opponent (far from certain, I know) and can pick between Mordaunt and Badenoch, who would he go for?

    He'll go for Badenoch, which tells how useless she is.
    Yeah, if I had to choose to face one or the other I'd face the emptier (than him) vessel rather than the one who actually has ideas and a vision. Penny feels like a house of cards to me, her support is wide but probably very shallow and brittle and in a campaign to win actual votes I think she'd get found out.
    Penny has the wit and humour to destroy Sunak in the hustings and final two debates, Badenoch doesn't have that skillset.

    Go on YouTube you can find a plethora of great speeches/off the cuff remarks from Mordaunt, you cannot find that for Badenoch.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 7,109
    Let's hope its Mordaunt on the final ballot paper v Riki and I hope she doesn't offer him a job or if she does...r perhaps N Ireland.
    Private Eye has interesting info on Riki
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,801
    Game over for England in the cricket.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,767
    edited July 2022
    A quick note to remind everyone again that voters do not transfer en bloc: the results today bear that out too.

    Do not assume that every Braverman/Badenoch/Truss vote is a hive mind that will consolidate into the last one standing.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,809
    Sam Coates making the point that Penny has David Davis - a strong Brexiteer.

    Implying Penny can get votes from Badenoch.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,251
    edited July 2022
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    I would suggest the conservative mps may well be aware that if Penny does not get through the membership, who overwhelming seem to want her to win, will be very annoyed and upset

    Conservative members are Eeyores though. They like being annoyed and upset.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 13,357
    edited July 2022
    Mordaunt should be busy offering TT a cabinet or senior ministerial post that interests him and Kemi HS and some fancy 'transforming Britain' or similar and she will walk it
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,303
    squareroot2 said:

    Let's hope its Mordaunt on the final ballot paper v Riki and I hope she doesn't offer him a job or if she does...r perhaps N Ireland.
    Private Eye has interesting info on Riki

    Actually I think Rishi might do quite well as NI Secretary.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 13,357
    MikeL said:

    Sam Coates making the point that Penny has David Davis - a strong Brexiteer.

    Implying Penny can get votes from Badenoch.

    She could also get the 'change' crew from Kemi
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 13,357
    Endillion said:

    Kemi needs Tommy not to drop out - if he does, she could finish last tomorrow and be eliminated. Him staying in today means she has the weekend to keep up the momentum, which she needs to overtake Truss.

    No vote till Monday now
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    BartholomewRoberts said:

    MaxPB said:

    BartholomewRoberts said:

    MaxPB said:

    tlg86 said:

    Sunak v Kemi, I reckon.

    Yes, Kemi takes the majority of Braverman's votes, knocks out Truss and absorbs Truss's votes to scrape into the final two.

    Smashes Rishi to bits and becomes PM.
    Implausible.

    Braverman only has 27 votes and Truss is 15 in the lead and should probably get some of Braverman's votes. Even if Kemi takes the majority of them, she still likely wouldn't get ahead of Truss.

    More plausible is Braverman and Badenoch can get Truss ahead of Mordaunt, but even that will still be a challenge.
    I think Kemi now has credibility to draw votes away from Liz as well. If she had not gained any in the previous round then it would be curtains, but for now I think she's got a route to the final two.
    Its a possible route, but not a plausible one, and its less plausible today than it was yesterday. She fell further behind Liz today, had she caught up a bit then overtaking would be more plausible, but instead Braverman's backers are going to have to think whether they want Mordaunt v Sunak in the run-off, or go for Truss?
    I think that is a fair point re Badenoch and I say that as a backer. However, it is pretty clear to anyone that Truss is going to struggle in any sort of campaigning. So, the Right of the party is going to have to make a choice pretty soon as to essentially say 'lose in third' or let's throw caution to the winds.
  • XtrainXtrain Posts: 341
    Rishi will be hoping for Liz in the final. She's the only one he can beat. Personally I want Penny or Kemi.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    One influential Tory MP tells me: “Deals need to be done over the weekend. Braverman & Badenoch can be the Queen maker for Truss or Mordaunt. It would require Truss or Mordaunt to toughen their stance on getting out of the ECHR, which would go down very well with the membership.”

    https://twitter.com/joncraig/status/1547589116451205121

    Jesus Christ, no.
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,273
    JohnO said:

    Shame on TT if he’s staying in the race. He’ll only lose more votes in the next round and weakening a claim for a senior Ministerial role. He could well (indirectly) help Truss to become one of the two going to the members: that would be catastrophic. This is serious stuff and his self-indulgence is unforgivable.

    Agreed, he should be dropping out and backing Mordaunt.

    What a dull contest a Sunak/Truss would be. Neither is up to beating Starmer and Labour in a GE.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,942
    JohnO said:

    Shame on TT if he’s staying in the race. He’ll only lose more votes in the next round and weakening a claim for a senior Ministerial role. He could well (indirectly) help Truss to become one of the two going to the members: that would be catastrophic. This is serious stuff and his self-indulgence is unforgivable.

    Well said Lord JohnO! TiT is being a tit really...
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