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Should we be following Gove & backing Kemi Badenoch? – politicalbetting.com
Should we be following Gove & backing Kemi Badenoch? – politicalbetting.com
One of the interesting moves in the CON leadership contest is a statement of support from Michael Gove for Johnson’s successor. She’s currently the Minister of State for Local Government and Communities and her boss used to be Michael Gove who has had a big impact on previous Tory leadership races.
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First. And yes, she would be an absolute nightmare for Starmer, on many different levels.
Wil give her a leg up in the next Cabinet though for sure. That might be enough of a point for Gove to make to Boris - you have no power over me now.
As it stands Sunak leads with 37 MPs, then Mordaunt on 22, Tugendhat on 18, Truss on 15, Hunt on 14 and then Badenoch, Patel and Zahawi tied on 13
https://conservativehome.com/2022/07/11/next-tory-leader-whos-backing-whom-our-working-list/
Markets latest: https://trib.al/yuxGivg https://twitter.com/BloombergUK/status/1546508863914102785/photo/1
In government, she is extremely unlikely to persuade 120 MPs to take a massive punt on a junior minister, regardless of whether they have certain merits.
She might well emerge from this with her case strengthened to be LoTO is a few years time, and I suspect that is the realistic aim. But 20-1 to win now is far, far too short.
When Johnson resigned I thought "oh, well, that's my long-term long-shot Badenoch bet lost". So I was delighted when she stood and even more when Gove backed her and the price came in to sell at a profit.
Interview with her by the Spectator, including 40’ podcast.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-the-tories-should-gamble-on-kemi-badenoch
I suspect she is transfer friendly re several of the candidates but if she comes fourth or fifth in the first ballot it could suck the momentum out of her campaign and force switchers to go for one of the higher placed candidates.
One to watch I think.
Members of the ASLEF union have accepted an improved pay offer from transport bosses that should mean more passenger services running across Scotland.
https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/scotrail-timetable-chaos-end-train-27451919
....Travelodge for the night.
South of the river too!
He seems to be sitting back while everyone else performs a Dutch auction, knowing he'll make the final two.
I wouldn't fancy a head-to-head debate with Rishi on some of the fantasy economic policies I've heard so far.
I had friends who read Viz comic 35 years ago, so I was well aware of that particular double entendre.
Are the ballots secret for Tory MPs? i.e. at each stage could they pledge public support for x, but secretly vote for y?
5% across the public sector could have been done months ago.
Bish, bosh, sorted.
But I think 20-1 massively underestimates the hurdles for a relatively untested junior minister to be trusted by MPs in really challenging times to go straight in not just as party leader but PM. That just strikes me as VERY unlikely and people are under-pricing the issue.
Reminds me of a comedian I saw many years ago. He had a good take.
"North of the river, London is covered in those blue plaques that tell you about all the famous people that lived there.
South of the river, London is covered in yellow signs saying "Murder: can you help?"
Edit, sorry I thought you'd provided said drunk driver with a Merc.
He says he acted in a way that was 'correct, proper and within the rules and fully transparent' when he was a non-dom - but won't say where
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1546512781536641024
Again he won't say
'I was not in public life. I haven't been non-domiciled for all my time in public life'
Corrupt the lot of them
That's fantasy economic policy, right there.
Penny Morduant is the most sensible on this by a country mile.
Sublime to the ridiculous.
I'm intrigued that the police could not prosecute. No CCTV footage? Did he claim someone else was driving?
I'm not doubting you, just curious that such an obvious ruse - run away and hide - would work
450,000 civil servants at an average cost (I.E. salary plus NI and hosting) at maybe 40k. So £20Bn perhaps. Hence 20% at most yields £4Bn, but that’s only if you assume those people were doing no useful work. Also has to be in addition to the previously announced cuts or it saves you nothing as those are baked in.
As a point of policy the social service might or might not need trimming, but don’t so doesn’t release megabucks.
I think it is perfectly legitimate for someone to have worked within the international rules regarding off shore accounts before they enter public life
If you have evidence rather than supposition that he did anything that broke the law, please enlighten us.
Otherwise you are just making stuff up because you don't like them.
Because there is a massive case against all the candidates, especially once you accept that Rishi is unappointable (Boris's right hand man for 6 months too long, non-dom issues, etc) and all the others are not saying a single word of truth on the economy, and there is no conventional stellar candidate. (And even if there was, this is the party that rejected Ken Clarke).
KB brings this to the party: If PM the UK would never be the same again, nor would our politics, and neither racists nor those who make a trade out of anti-racism would have anywhere to go. They would have to find a new cause.
And as PM with her cabinet she would make the Labour front bench look like a union delegation from the 1970s.
She is easily the candidate SKS would fear. Mordaunt the only other one.
At least you're not pretending anymore to not be a Tory. We all know who you are, who will you be voting for?
Don't worry about responding, I will be ignoring you going forward.
If Morduant, Hunt won I wouldn't mind Labour losing. The rest of them scare me.
https://www.flickr.com/photos/blackwatch55013/6329780519
AfAICS, she is saying absolutely nothing that would have been controversial back in about 2012.
EDIT: In fact I'll go further: unless you can point me to something otherwise (?), I don't think she's ever said anything culture warsy which 70% of the population wouldn't agree with.
He is putting himself forward as a, perhaps the most important public figure. If we can't have transparency now what hope is there.
The fact is, if you want to be PM - and, in this case, without the scrutiny of a general election - you are rightly going to be given a proper grilling, and your entire life will be pored over. This is not prurient or censorious, you are hoping to lead the nation - and to win that election
To my mind Javid, Sunak and Zarhawi have ruled themselves out, because of financial hmmm-ness
It's OK to do this stuff if you are Health Minister or COTE, but PM? Hmmm
Plus if all you want is a bed a Travelodge is more than adequate.
In 1997 William Hague was everybody’s second choice and that helped him win as other people were eliminated.
She’s everybody’s second choice.
I wonder why you aren't mentioning that? 🤔
Just observing that one has seen the books.
They obviously aren't pretty.
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1546516211499925504
I don't care about leave/remain but what opportunism.
I don't think this is anything near enough to get her into, or particularly close to, the top two amongst MPs.
He tried to bring an unfair dismissal case against us saying that he was not drunk and had spent 4 hours in a pub drinking coke and that the accident had caused him to have a mental abhoration making him run away. The case never went anywhere.
Hunt has not got a chance