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Should we be following Gove & backing Kemi Badenoch? – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited July 2022 in General
imageShould we be following Gove & backing Kemi Badenoch? – politicalbetting.com

One of the interesting moves in the CON leadership contest is a statement of support from Michael Gove for Johnson’s successor. She’s currently the Minister of State for Local Government and Communities and her boss used to be Michael Gove who has had a big impact on previous Tory leadership races.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,960
    edited July 2022
    A QTWTAIY!

    First. And yes, she would be an absolute nightmare for Starmer, on many different levels.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    No
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited July 2022
    No, she has not even been a Cabinet Minister, she is just putting a marker down. Currently she is not even in the top 5 of MPs endorsements.

    As it stands Sunak leads with 37 MPs, then Mordaunt on 22, Tugendhat on 18, Truss on 15, Hunt on 14 and then Badenoch, Patel and Zahawi tied on 13

    https://conservativehome.com/2022/07/11/next-tory-leader-whos-backing-whom-our-working-list/
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,841
    edited July 2022
    Jamie Wallis banned from driving for 6 months and 2500 fine. No by election.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,414
    She’s very impressive, I will give you that. I think she needs more time to build her presence and her profile rather than being parachuted into the top job without having held a cabinet post, to be honest.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,837
    Has Ms Badenoch come out with any policies or opinions about the cost of living?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,841
    HYUFD said:

    No, she has not even been a Cabinet Minister, she is just putting a marker down. Currently she is not even in the top 5 of MPs endorsements.

    As it stands Sunak leads with 37 MPs, then Mordaunt on 22, Tugendhat on 18, Truss on 15, Hunt on 14 and then Badenoch, Patel and Zahawi tied on 13

    https://conservativehome.com/2022/07/11/next-tory-leader-whos-backing-whom-our-working-list/

    Arent you backing No jobs in government ever Tugendhat?
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    ScotRail train drivers accept new pay deal to end disruption

    ScotRail drivers will see their pay climb by 5% and also get more money for rest day and Sunday working, driving instructor and maternity pay along with a policy of no compulsory redundancies for the next five years.
    The nationalised train operator said 2.2% of the increase would be funded by Transport Scotland with the remaining 2.8% coming from ScotRail's funds.
    ScotRail came back into public ownership for the first time in 25 years in April, after previous operator Abellio had its franchise ended early over criticism of the quality of the service.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-62125059

    Thank feck for that - booked my "trans-Inverness" tickets last week for travel next week :)
    Her Majesty’s Scottish Ministers aim to please! 🚂 🏔 🥃 ⛳️ 🎻
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,586
    edited July 2022

    Jamie Wallis banned from driving for 6 months and 2500 fine. No by election.

    Six months? Less than if he'd blown p****d.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831
    dixiedean said:

    Has Ms Badenoch come out with any policies or opinions about the cost of living?

    She doesn't need detailed policies just a broad overview. She needs to work with a Chancellor who gets it and will deliver meaningful results.


  • The key point in James Forsyth's analysis comes after the "but".

    In government, she is extremely unlikely to persuade 120 MPs to take a massive punt on a junior minister, regardless of whether they have certain merits.

    She might well emerge from this with her case strengthened to be LoTO is a few years time, and I suspect that is the realistic aim. But 20-1 to win now is far, far too short.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,926
    FPT
    Endillion said:

    Dominic Raab has halved in price this afternoon. Betfair next pm:-

    2.94 Rishi Sunak
    4.7 Penny Mordaunt
    5.9 Liz Truss
    12 Tom Tugendhat
    19 Jeremy Hunt
    21 Kemi Badenoch
    27 Dominic Raab
    40 Sajid Javid
    46 Nadhim Zahawi
    46 Priti Patel
    65 Suella Braverman
    70 Keir Starmer

    Raab is for some reason deemed by Betfair as 10x more likely to be the next PM as the next Tory leader.

    I guess because he's still deputy PM, so if Johnson walks out/keels over, he ends up as PM but not party leader?
    Raab is not standing for the leadership (so do not back him) but might become prime minister for a couple of weeks if Boris succumbs to long covid or the menopause before the election is over.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,149
    edited July 2022

    ScotRail train drivers accept new pay deal to end disruption

    ScotRail drivers will see their pay climb by 5% and also get more money for rest day and Sunday working, driving instructor and maternity pay along with a policy of no compulsory redundancies for the next five years.
    The nationalised train operator said 2.2% of the increase would be funded by Transport Scotland with the remaining 2.8% coming from ScotRail's funds.
    ScotRail came back into public ownership for the first time in 25 years in April, after previous operator Abellio had its franchise ended early over criticism of the quality of the service.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-62125059

    Thank feck for that - booked my "trans-Inverness" tickets last week for travel next week :)
    Her Majesty’s Scottish Ministers aim to please! 🚂 🏔 🥃 ⛳️ 🎻
    I just hope Sunil can get over the border. Notd up to date on current strike plans?
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,257
    I hope not, as I sold off most of my (high odds from ages ago) stake a day or two ago!

    When Johnson resigned I thought "oh, well, that's my long-term long-shot Badenoch bet lost". So I was delighted when she stood and even more when Gove backed her and the price came in to sell at a profit.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    Question to which the answer is yes #TeamKemi

    Interview with her by the Spectator, including 40’ podcast.
    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-the-tories-should-gamble-on-kemi-badenoch
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,414
    edited July 2022
    At the moment Liz seems to be the big under-performer based on declarations. I wasn’t expecting her to be behind Tugendhat. Maybe she is holding something back but if not then there has to be the chance of a significant underperformance in the first ballot? Could nuke her chances.

    I suspect she is transfer friendly re several of the candidates but if she comes fourth or fifth in the first ballot it could suck the momentum out of her campaign and force switchers to go for one of the higher placed candidates.

    One to watch I think.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,837

    dixiedean said:

    Has Ms Badenoch come out with any policies or opinions about the cost of living?

    She doesn't need detailed policies just a broad overview. She needs to work with a Chancellor who gets it and will deliver meaningful results.


    Has she come out with a broad overview then?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,281
    It's interesting and surprising IMO that the moderate Tory MP Neil O'Brien has endorsed Kemi Badenoch.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,149

    The key point in James Forsyth's analysis comes after the "but".

    In government, she is extremely unlikely to persuade 120 MPs to take a massive punt on a junior minister, regardless of whether they have certain merits.

    She might well emerge from this with her case strengthened to be LoTO is a few years time, and I suspect that is the realistic aim. But 20-1 to win now is far, far too short.

    Hmm, has it been remarked that Mr Gove not only manages to look good, future good of the party, etc., but also avoids upsetting any more immediately likely challenger by picking one? Keeps his bets open. And of course if against the odds Ms Badenoch wins, he's scored the jackpot.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    Scott_xP said:
    Oh wow, Euro is 1.006 to the US$.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 4,339

    Jamie Wallis banned from driving for 6 months and 2500 fine. No by election.

    Six months? Less than if he'd blown p****d.
    I’ve given up trying to understand our road traffic laws.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    Andy_JS said:

    It's interesting and surprising IMO that the moderate Tory MP Neil O'Brien has endorsed Kemi Badenoch.

    "moderate" :lol:
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,336

    Jamie Wallis banned from driving for 6 months and 2500 fine. No by election.

    Six months? Less than if he'd blown p****d.
    The news report on BBC online contains the headline "Pearl Necklace" for some reason. Sounds like a little bit of trolling there. It took me ages to locate the said phrase in the body of the text.

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069

    Jamie Wallis banned from driving for 6 months and 2500 fine. No by election.

    Any woman should know that you don't drive in heels...
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,586
    dixiedean said:

    Has Ms Badenoch come out with any policies or opinions about the cost of living?

    Does she really need too? Out-nastying the rest of the field seems to be the narrative for this Nasty Party election.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Carnyx said:

    ScotRail train drivers accept new pay deal to end disruption

    ScotRail drivers will see their pay climb by 5% and also get more money for rest day and Sunday working, driving instructor and maternity pay along with a policy of no compulsory redundancies for the next five years.
    The nationalised train operator said 2.2% of the increase would be funded by Transport Scotland with the remaining 2.8% coming from ScotRail's funds.
    ScotRail came back into public ownership for the first time in 25 years in April, after previous operator Abellio had its franchise ended early over criticism of the quality of the service.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-62125059

    Thank feck for that - booked my "trans-Inverness" tickets last week for travel next week :)
    Her Majesty’s Scottish Ministers aim to please! 🚂 🏔 🥃 ⛳️ 🎻
    I just hope Sunil can get over the border. Notd up to date on current strike plans?
    ScotRail timetable chaos to end as train drivers accept pay deal after weeks of disruption

    Members of the ASLEF union have accepted an improved pay offer from transport bosses that should mean more passenger services running across Scotland.

    https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/scotrail-timetable-chaos-end-train-27451919
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,401
    Travel update: Arrived into King's Cross 104 minutes late. Currently having a coffee in the lounge before heading to my.....


    ....Travelodge for the night.

    South of the river too!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    biggles said:

    Jamie Wallis banned from driving for 6 months and 2500 fine. No by election.

    Six months? Less than if he'd blown p****d.
    I’ve given up trying to understand our road traffic laws.
    If you run away from the accident, and apologise the next day, they can’t do you for being drunk. So, the incentive is to run away, therefore running away needs to come with at least a 12-month ban.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 4,339
    edited July 2022
    I wonder which selfless senior MP would be prepared to act as her Chancellor, number two, and overall policy wonk? Could it be Gove?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,401
    dixiedean said:

    Has Ms Badenoch come out with any policies or opinions about the cost of living?

    Have any of them?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,149

    Carnyx said:

    ScotRail train drivers accept new pay deal to end disruption

    ScotRail drivers will see their pay climb by 5% and also get more money for rest day and Sunday working, driving instructor and maternity pay along with a policy of no compulsory redundancies for the next five years.
    The nationalised train operator said 2.2% of the increase would be funded by Transport Scotland with the remaining 2.8% coming from ScotRail's funds.
    ScotRail came back into public ownership for the first time in 25 years in April, after previous operator Abellio had its franchise ended early over criticism of the quality of the service.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-62125059

    Thank feck for that - booked my "trans-Inverness" tickets last week for travel next week :)
    Her Majesty’s Scottish Ministers aim to please! 🚂 🏔 🥃 ⛳️ 🎻
    I just hope Sunil can get over the border. Notd up to date on current strike plans?
    ScotRail timetable chaos to end as train drivers accept pay deal after weeks of disruption

    Members of the ASLEF union have accepted an improved pay offer from transport bosses that should mean more passenger services running across Scotland.

    https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/scotrail-timetable-chaos-end-train-27451919
    Good; thanks. Do we know what is happening in the south including LNER?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,837
    Am beginning to wonder if we are missing the obvious here. That is the favourite and front runner.
    He seems to be sitting back while everyone else performs a Dutch auction, knowing he'll make the final two.
    I wouldn't fancy a head-to-head debate with Rishi on some of the fantasy economic policies I've heard so far.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958

    She’s very impressive, I will give you that. I think she needs more time to build her presence and her profile rather than being parachuted into the top job without having held a cabinet post, to be honest.

    If we get an excellent new Minister in Cabinet that people see, like and can believe in, that will be a serious future bonus for the Conservatives over the Cabinet that Boris still presides over.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,586

    Jamie Wallis banned from driving for 6 months and 2500 fine. No by election.

    Six months? Less than if he'd blown p****d.
    The news report on BBC online contains the headline "Pearl Necklace" for some reason. Sounds like a little bit of trolling there. It took me ages to locate the said phrase in the body of the text.

    That is a little saucy for the BBC.

    I had friends who read Viz comic 35 years ago, so I was well aware of that particular double entendre.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,346

    Jamie Wallis banned from driving for 6 months and 2500 fine. No by election.

    Six months? Less than if he'd blown p****d.
    I worked with someone who crashed his car into a parked Merc whilst pissed, caused £25 grands worth of damage, he abandoned his vehicle in the middle of the road and left his phone on the passenger seat. The police took the car (My company's car) into a secure compound and spent the next 24 hours trying to find the driver. He hid out in a friends house. Because the police never found him in time to prosecute for drink driving he got away with it completely. We sacked him for it but the police did nothing.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,461
    A question - probably already been answered, but if so I've missed it.
    Are the ballots secret for Tory MPs? i.e. at each stage could they pledge public support for x, but secretly vote for y?
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 4,339
    edited July 2022

    dixiedean said:

    Has Ms Badenoch come out with any policies or opinions about the cost of living?

    Have any of them?
    Well Zahawi’s suggestion of cutting Departmental budgets by 20% during a period of 10% inflation is a useful policy for demonstrating he has no grip on reality.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    A question - probably already been answered, but if so I've missed it.
    Are the ballots secret for Tory MPs? i.e. at each stage could they pledge public support for x, but secretly vote for y?

    Yes, secret ballots.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415

    Personally I think Truss’s was the best campaign launch video.

    Doesn’t mean she should be PM of course.

    I can see why Roger, our PB expert on such things, thinks the Liz flick is the best of the films so far, it was pretty effective in tone, pitch and sobriety, about what needs to be fixed and delivered from day one, so selling herself as a sort of “oven ready PM” to try and find some advantage over opponents.

    Oven Ready Liz - For All Those Hungry Right Now Problems

    https://twitter.com/trussliz/status/1546399020754550784?s=20&t=VJPzY7sUkZyZ9BTin7SLYg

    If it was based on hair styles I think Liz cleans up. Fortunately it is not! 💇‍♀️
    Looking forward to hearing Penny take on the others in debate to find her winning differentials, debates her moment to get into last two and take the crown imo. but Someone needs to tell Penny Mourdant, Owen Jones is not the great political sage of our time (that he thinks he is) just a very petulant little boy.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,837

    Carnyx said:

    ScotRail train drivers accept new pay deal to end disruption

    ScotRail drivers will see their pay climb by 5% and also get more money for rest day and Sunday working, driving instructor and maternity pay along with a policy of no compulsory redundancies for the next five years.
    The nationalised train operator said 2.2% of the increase would be funded by Transport Scotland with the remaining 2.8% coming from ScotRail's funds.
    ScotRail came back into public ownership for the first time in 25 years in April, after previous operator Abellio had its franchise ended early over criticism of the quality of the service.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-62125059

    Thank feck for that - booked my "trans-Inverness" tickets last week for travel next week :)
    Her Majesty’s Scottish Ministers aim to please! 🚂 🏔 🥃 ⛳️ 🎻
    I just hope Sunil can get over the border. Notd up to date on current strike plans?
    ScotRail timetable chaos to end as train drivers accept pay deal after weeks of disruption

    Members of the ASLEF union have accepted an improved pay offer from transport bosses that should mean more passenger services running across Scotland.

    https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/scotrail-timetable-chaos-end-train-27451919
    I'll say it again.
    5% across the public sector could have been done months ago.
    Bish, bosh, sorted.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,461
    Sandpit said:

    A question - probably already been answered, but if so I've missed it.
    Are the ballots secret for Tory MPs? i.e. at each stage could they pledge public support for x, but secretly vote for y?

    Yes, secret ballots.
    Thanks.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,281
    edited July 2022
    Sandpit said:

    A question - probably already been answered, but if so I've missed it.
    Are the ballots secret for Tory MPs? i.e. at each stage could they pledge public support for x, but secretly vote for y?

    Yes, secret ballots.
    I sometimes think they ought to be public.
  • Carnyx said:

    The key point in James Forsyth's analysis comes after the "but".

    In government, she is extremely unlikely to persuade 120 MPs to take a massive punt on a junior minister, regardless of whether they have certain merits.

    She might well emerge from this with her case strengthened to be LoTO is a few years time, and I suspect that is the realistic aim. But 20-1 to win now is far, far too short.

    Hmm, has it been remarked that Mr Gove not only manages to look good, future good of the party, etc., but also avoids upsetting any more immediately likely challenger by picking one? Keeps his bets open. And of course if against the odds Ms Badenoch wins, he's scored the jackpot.
    Sure. It's probably sensible enough for Gove to back someone who is an emerging figure who will probably come out of the process with her reputation improved and cabinet prospects strengthened (and may be LOTO by 2025). It is also a sly "you were the future once" up yours for Johnson.

    But I think 20-1 massively underestimates the hurdles for a relatively untested junior minister to be trusted by MPs in really challenging times to go straight in not just as party leader but PM. That just strikes me as VERY unlikely and people are under-pricing the issue.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069
    dixiedean said:

    Am beginning to wonder if we are missing the obvious here. That is the favourite and front runner.
    He seems to be sitting back while everyone else performs a Dutch auction, knowing he'll make the final two.
    I wouldn't fancy a head-to-head debate with Rishi on some of the fantasy economic policies I've heard so far.

    Yes. I have laid Rishi in a big way. I don't do well on Tory leadership contests. So by the rule of Foxydamus...
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    biggles said:

    dixiedean said:

    Has Ms Badenoch come out with any policies or opinions about the cost of living?

    Have any of them?
    Well Zahawi’s suggestion of cutting Departmental budgets by 20% during a period of 10% inflation is a useful policy for demonstrating he has no grip on reality.
    Departmental *admin* budgets.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 11,184
    Applicant said:

    Andy_JS said:

    It's interesting and surprising IMO that the moderate Tory MP Neil O'Brien has endorsed Kemi Badenoch.

    "moderate" :lol:
    He works(worked?) with her at DCLG didn't she? Telling that those who have worked with her are endorsing her. More telling than the reverse, anyway.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958

    Travel update: Arrived into King's Cross 104 minutes late. Currently having a coffee in the lounge before heading to my.....


    ....Travelodge for the night.

    South of the river too!

    Living on the edge, eh?

    Reminds me of a comedian I saw many years ago. He had a good take.

    "North of the river, London is covered in those blue plaques that tell you about all the famous people that lived there.

    South of the river, London is covered in yellow signs saying "Murder: can you help?"
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,586
    edited July 2022

    Jamie Wallis banned from driving for 6 months and 2500 fine. No by election.

    Six months? Less than if he'd blown p****d.
    I worked with someone who crashed his car into a parked Merc whilst pissed, caused £25 grands worth of damage, he abandoned his vehicle in the middle of the road and left his phone on the passenger seat. The police took the car (My company's car) into a secure compound and spent the next 24 hours trying to find the driver. He hid out in a friends house. Because the police never found him in time to prosecute for drink driving he got away with it completely. We sacked him for it but the police did nothing.
    I think the lesson learned there should be one of don't spoil your staff with an expensive motor. If company cars are a tool of the trade for employees, look no further than a Fiesta van!

    Edit, sorry I thought you'd provided said drunk driver with a Merc.
  • She is obsessed with the culture wars. Would be dreadful.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069

    Carnyx said:

    The key point in James Forsyth's analysis comes after the "but".

    In government, she is extremely unlikely to persuade 120 MPs to take a massive punt on a junior minister, regardless of whether they have certain merits.

    She might well emerge from this with her case strengthened to be LoTO is a few years time, and I suspect that is the realistic aim. But 20-1 to win now is far, far too short.

    Hmm, has it been remarked that Mr Gove not only manages to look good, future good of the party, etc., but also avoids upsetting any more immediately likely challenger by picking one? Keeps his bets open. And of course if against the odds Ms Badenoch wins, he's scored the jackpot.
    Sure. It's probably sensible enough for Gove to back someone who is an emerging figure who will probably come out of the process with her reputation improved and cabinet prospects strengthened (and may be LOTO by 2025). It is also a sly "you were the future once" up yours for Johnson.

    But I think 20-1 massively underestimates the hurdles for a relatively untested junior minister to be trusted by MPs in really challenging times to go straight in not just as party leader but PM. That just strikes me as VERY unlikely and people are under-pricing the issue.
    I think she will get the ERG backing.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,739
    Sajid Javid twice declines to say whether he was domiciled in a tax haven for tax purposes

    He says he acted in a way that was 'correct, proper and within the rules and fully transparent' when he was a non-dom - but won't say where

    https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1546512781536641024
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,346

    Jamie Wallis banned from driving for 6 months and 2500 fine. No by election.

    Six months? Less than if he'd blown p****d.
    I worked with someone who crashed his car into a parked Merc whilst pissed, caused £25 grands worth of damage, he abandoned his vehicle in the middle of the road and left his phone on the passenger seat. The police took the car (My company's car) into a secure compound and spent the next 24 hours trying to find the driver. He hid out in a friends house. Because the police never found him in time to prosecute for drink driving he got away with it completely. We sacked him for it but the police did nothing.
    I think the lesson learned there should be one of don't spoil your staff with an expensive motor. If company cars are a tool of the trade for employees, look no further than a Fiesta van!
    He had a Kia, it was a Merc he crashed into
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 14,912
    So the best man of the former Chancellor and leadership candidate thinks that the leadership should go to someone who has had a big job in Cabinet. What a surprise!
  • Sajid Javid is asked a third time where he was domiciled for tax purposes when he was a non-dom

    Again he won't say

    'I was not in public life. I haven't been non-domiciled for all my time in public life'

    Corrupt the lot of them
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594
    dixiedean said:

    Am beginning to wonder if we are missing the obvious here. That is the favourite and front runner.
    He seems to be sitting back while everyone else performs a Dutch auction, knowing he'll make the final two.
    I wouldn't fancy a head-to-head debate with Rishi on some of the fantasy economic policies I've heard so far.

    Rishi Sunak spent GBP450bn he did not have on fighting covid. Some of it was embezzled. Some was wasted. Some was spent on a furlough policy that paid people to do nothing for far longer than it needed to.

    That's fantasy economic policy, right there.

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789

    She is obsessed with the culture wars. Would be dreadful.

    She just doesn't accept the premises of the other side.
  • She is obsessed with the culture wars. Would be dreadful.

    She just doesn't accept the premises of the other side.
    No it's not that, she enflames it for no good reason.

    Penny Morduant is the most sensible on this by a country mile.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950

    Travel update: Arrived into King's Cross 104 minutes late. Currently having a coffee in the lounge before heading to my.....


    ....Travelodge for the night.

    South of the river too!

    First class travel to South of the river Travelodge.

    Sublime to the ridiculous.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379

    She is obsessed with the culture wars. Would be dreadful.

    She just doesn't accept the premises of the other side.
    No it's not that, she enflames it for no good reason.

    Penny Morduant is the most sensible on this by a country mile.
    You mean, she is on your side.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,249

    Jamie Wallis banned from driving for 6 months and 2500 fine. No by election.

    Six months? Less than if he'd blown p****d.
    I worked with someone who crashed his car into a parked Merc whilst pissed, caused £25 grands worth of damage, he abandoned his vehicle in the middle of the road and left his phone on the passenger seat. The police took the car (My company's car) into a secure compound and spent the next 24 hours trying to find the driver. He hid out in a friends house. Because the police never found him in time to prosecute for drink driving he got away with it completely. We sacked him for it but the police did nothing.

    Jamie Wallis banned from driving for 6 months and 2500 fine. No by election.

    Six months? Less than if he'd blown p****d.
    I worked with someone who crashed his car into a parked Merc whilst pissed, caused £25 grands worth of damage, he abandoned his vehicle in the middle of the road and left his phone on the passenger seat. The police took the car (My company's car) into a secure compound and spent the next 24 hours trying to find the driver. He hid out in a friends house. Because the police never found him in time to prosecute for drink driving he got away with it completely. We sacked him for it but the police did nothing.
    That's quite a story - that I shall file away for future use

    I'm intrigued that the police could not prosecute. No CCTV footage? Did he claim someone else was driving?

    I'm not doubting you, just curious that such an obvious ruse - run away and hide - would work
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594

    She is obsessed with the culture wars. Would be dreadful.

    She just doesn't accept the premises of the other side.
    That's what makes her such a compelling candidate.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 4,339
    edited July 2022
    Sandpit said:

    biggles said:

    dixiedean said:

    Has Ms Badenoch come out with any policies or opinions about the cost of living?

    Have any of them?
    Well Zahawi’s suggestion of cutting Departmental budgets by 20% during a period of 10% inflation is a useful policy for demonstrating he has no grip on reality.
    Departmental *admin* budgets.
    Even less possible, and would yield relatively small amounts.

    450,000 civil servants at an average cost (I.E. salary plus NI and hosting) at maybe 40k. So £20Bn perhaps. Hence 20% at most yields £4Bn, but that’s only if you assume those people were doing no useful work. Also has to be in addition to the previously announced cuts or it saves you nothing as those are baked in.

    As a point of policy the social service might or might not need trimming, but don’t so doesn’t release megabucks.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831

    Sajid Javid is asked a third time where he was domiciled for tax purposes when he was a non-dom

    Again he won't say

    'I was not in public life. I haven't been non-domiciled for all my time in public life'

    Corrupt the lot of them

    Have you any evidence at all of illegality surrounding his finances? Any?

    I think it is perfectly legitimate for someone to have worked within the international rules regarding off shore accounts before they enter public life

    If you have evidence rather than supposition that he did anything that broke the law, please enlighten us.

    Otherwise you are just making stuff up because you don't like them.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,343
    Yes. Dip modest toe.

    Because there is a massive case against all the candidates, especially once you accept that Rishi is unappointable (Boris's right hand man for 6 months too long, non-dom issues, etc) and all the others are not saying a single word of truth on the economy, and there is no conventional stellar candidate. (And even if there was, this is the party that rejected Ken Clarke).

    KB brings this to the party: If PM the UK would never be the same again, nor would our politics, and neither racists nor those who make a trade out of anti-racism would have anywhere to go. They would have to find a new cause.

    And as PM with her cabinet she would make the Labour front bench look like a union delegation from the 1970s.

    She is easily the candidate SKS would fear. Mordaunt the only other one.

  • Applicant said:

    She is obsessed with the culture wars. Would be dreadful.

    She just doesn't accept the premises of the other side.
    No it's not that, she enflames it for no good reason.

    Penny Morduant is the most sensible on this by a country mile.
    You mean, she is on your side.
    She's actually not to be honest.

    At least you're not pretending anymore to not be a Tory. We all know who you are, who will you be voting for?

    Don't worry about responding, I will be ignoring you going forward.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,926

    So the best man of the former Chancellor and leadership candidate thinks that the leadership should go to someone who has had a big job in Cabinet. What a surprise!

    It is a truism that the job always goes to someone who has held one of the Great Offices of State or LotO. That Rishi's mate says it does not alter that.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    HYUFD said:

    No, she has not even been a Cabinet Minister, she is just putting a marker down. Currently she is not even in the top 5 of MPs endorsements.

    As it stands Sunak leads with 37 MPs, then Mordaunt on 22, Tugendhat on 18, Truss on 15, Hunt on 14 and then Badenoch, Patel and Zahawi tied on 13

    https://conservativehome.com/2022/07/11/next-tory-leader-whos-backing-whom-our-working-list/

    Arent you backing No jobs in government ever Tugendhat?
    Tugendhat has chaired the Foreign Affairs Cttee however
  • I think there are far more important issues than the culture wars. And falling back on this shows they don't have a lot to say on issues that matter like CoL.

    If Morduant, Hunt won I wouldn't mind Labour losing. The rest of them scare me.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,586

    Jamie Wallis banned from driving for 6 months and 2500 fine. No by election.

    Six months? Less than if he'd blown p****d.
    I worked with someone who crashed his car into a parked Merc whilst pissed, caused £25 grands worth of damage, he abandoned his vehicle in the middle of the road and left his phone on the passenger seat. The police took the car (My company's car) into a secure compound and spent the next 24 hours trying to find the driver. He hid out in a friends house. Because the police never found him in time to prosecute for drink driving he got away with it completely. We sacked him for it but the police did nothing.
    I think the lesson learned there should be one of don't spoil your staff with an expensive motor. If company cars are a tool of the trade for employees, look no further than a Fiesta van!
    He had a Kia, it was a Merc he crashed into
    Sorry, I misread. Still, one would have thought plod would have had the imagination to go for the full Monty rather than let him off. I hate drink drivers. A ban should mean a lifetime ban and anyone pulling a stroke to get away with it should also get a lifetime ban.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 11,184
    edited July 2022

    She is obsessed with the culture wars. Would be dreadful.

    She just doesn't accept the premises of the other side.
    No it's not that, she enflames it for no good reason.

    Penny Morduant is the most sensible on this by a country mile.
    Not accepting the premises of the other side is not 'enflaming' it.
    AfAICS, she is saying absolutely nothing that would have been controversial back in about 2012.

    EDIT: In fact I'll go further: unless you can point me to something otherwise (?), I don't think she's ever said anything culture warsy which 70% of the population wouldn't agree with.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950

    Sajid Javid is asked a third time where he was domiciled for tax purposes when he was a non-dom

    Again he won't say

    'I was not in public life. I haven't been non-domiciled for all my time in public life'

    Corrupt the lot of them

    Have you any evidence at all of illegality surrounding his finances? Any?

    I think it is perfectly legitimate for someone to have worked within the international rules regarding off shore accounts before they enter public life

    If you have evidence rather than supposition that he did anything that broke the law, please enlighten us.

    Otherwise you are just making stuff up because you don't like them.
    Once again it is the failure to answer the question that is relevant. Just say where it was and move on.

    He is putting himself forward as a, perhaps the most important public figure. If we can't have transparency now what hope is there.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379

    Sajid Javid is asked a third time where he was domiciled for tax purposes when he was a non-dom

    Again he won't say

    'I was not in public life. I haven't been non-domiciled for all my time in public life'

    Corrupt the lot of them

    Have you any evidence at all of illegality surrounding his finances? Any?

    I think it is perfectly legitimate for someone to have worked within the international rules regarding off shore accounts before they enter public life

    If you have evidence rather than supposition that he did anything that broke the law, please enlighten us.

    Otherwise you are just making stuff up because you don't like them.
    Where did illegality come into it? This is typical lefty "rich Tory = bad".
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,841
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    No, she has not even been a Cabinet Minister, she is just putting a marker down. Currently she is not even in the top 5 of MPs endorsements.

    As it stands Sunak leads with 37 MPs, then Mordaunt on 22, Tugendhat on 18, Truss on 15, Hunt on 14 and then Badenoch, Patel and Zahawi tied on 13

    https://conservativehome.com/2022/07/11/next-tory-leader-whos-backing-whom-our-working-list/

    Arent you backing No jobs in government ever Tugendhat?
    Tugendhat has chaired the Foreign Affairs Cttee however
    Does that count as 'cabinet' in Political Top Trumps then?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958
    We seem to have reached the stage where new endorsements for candidates are drying up, whilst those remaining pledge themselves quietly to two or three - to keep their options open.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,249

    Sajid Javid is asked a third time where he was domiciled for tax purposes when he was a non-dom

    Again he won't say

    'I was not in public life. I haven't been non-domiciled for all my time in public life'

    Corrupt the lot of them

    Have you any evidence at all of illegality surrounding his finances? Any?

    I think it is perfectly legitimate for someone to have worked within the international rules regarding off shore accounts before they enter public life

    If you have evidence rather than supposition that he did anything that broke the law, please enlighten us.

    Otherwise you are just making stuff up because you don't like them.
    It's still a very poor look for Sajid, even if you're right

    The fact is, if you want to be PM - and, in this case, without the scrutiny of a general election - you are rightly going to be given a proper grilling, and your entire life will be pored over. This is not prurient or censorious, you are hoping to lead the nation - and to win that election

    To my mind Javid, Sunak and Zarhawi have ruled themselves out, because of financial hmmm-ness

    It's OK to do this stuff if you are Health Minister or COTE, but PM? Hmmm
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    edited July 2022

    Applicant said:

    She is obsessed with the culture wars. Would be dreadful.

    She just doesn't accept the premises of the other side.
    No it's not that, she enflames it for no good reason.

    Penny Morduant is the most sensible on this by a country mile.
    You mean, she is on your side.
    She's actually not to be honest.

    At least you're not pretending anymore to not be a Tory. We all know who you are, who will you be voting for?
    Well, I don't have a vote, because I'm not a Tory, you muppet.

    Don't worry about responding, I will be ignoring you going forward.

    Excellent! I rather wish you'd been doing that all day instead of embarrassing yourself with your responses.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    edited July 2022
    TOPPING said:

    Travel update: Arrived into King's Cross 104 minutes late. Currently having a coffee in the lounge before heading to my.....


    ....Travelodge for the night.

    South of the river too!

    First class travel to South of the river Travelodge.

    Sublime to the ridiculous.
    Have you seen the cost of hotels in London at the moment? Oh boy is an understatement.

    Plus if all you want is a bed a Travelodge is more than adequate.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,401
    TOPPING said:

    Travel update: Arrived into King's Cross 104 minutes late. Currently having a coffee in the lounge before heading to my.....


    ....Travelodge for the night.

    South of the river too!

    First class travel to South of the river Travelodge.

    Sublime to the ridiculous.
    TOPPING said:

    Travel update: Arrived into King's Cross 104 minutes late. Currently having a coffee in the lounge before heading to my.....


    ....Travelodge for the night.

    South of the river too!

    First class travel to South of the river Travelodge.

    Sublime to the ridiculous.
    To be fair, the train ticket cost less than the Travelodge.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,149
    With an H ... And a shame it would never get further than Glasgow Central. Would have been good on a diesel on the West Highland or Highland lines.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,586

    I think there are far more important issues than the culture wars. And falling back on this shows they don't have a lot to say on issues that matter like CoL.

    If Morduant, Hunt won I wouldn't mind Labour losing. The rest of them scare me.

    Hunt has all of a sudden gone rogue, right-winger. He always was a lightweight, just compared to Johnson he was seen as the voice of reason.
  • Getting nasty on here, I will wish you all a pleasant afternoon. Bye bye
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited July 2022

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    No, she has not even been a Cabinet Minister, she is just putting a marker down. Currently she is not even in the top 5 of MPs endorsements.

    As it stands Sunak leads with 37 MPs, then Mordaunt on 22, Tugendhat on 18, Truss on 15, Hunt on 14 and then Badenoch, Patel and Zahawi tied on 13

    https://conservativehome.com/2022/07/11/next-tory-leader-whos-backing-whom-our-working-list/

    Arent you backing No jobs in government ever Tugendhat?
    Tugendhat has chaired the Foreign Affairs Cttee however
    Does that count as 'cabinet' in Political Top Trumps then?
    It is still a leadership role, as was his position of Lieutenant Colonel in the Territorial Army
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    No, she has not even been a Cabinet Minister, she is just putting a marker down. Currently she is not even in the top 5 of MPs endorsements.

    As it stands Sunak leads with 37 MPs, then Mordaunt on 22, Tugendhat on 18, Truss on 15, Hunt on 14 and then Badenoch, Patel and Zahawi tied on 13

    https://conservativehome.com/2022/07/11/next-tory-leader-whos-backing-whom-our-working-list/

    Arent you backing No jobs in government ever Tugendhat?
    Tugendhat has chaired the Foreign Affairs Cttee however
    Whose budget is, what, exactly?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,969
    Somebody has said to me that Kemi is the new William Hague.

    In 1997 William Hague was everybody’s second choice and that helped him win as other people were eliminated.

    She’s everybody’s second choice.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    eek said:

    TOPPING said:

    Travel update: Arrived into King's Cross 104 minutes late. Currently having a coffee in the lounge before heading to my.....


    ....Travelodge for the night.

    South of the river too!

    First class travel to South of the river Travelodge.

    Sublime to the ridiculous.
    Have you seen the cost of hotels in London at the moment? Oh boy is an understatement.

    Plus if all you want is a bed a Travelodge is more than adequate.
    Travelodges are great it was just the contrast I found interesting.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,586

    I think there are far more important issues than the culture wars. And falling back on this shows they don't have a lot to say on issues that matter like CoL.

    If Morduant, Hunt won I wouldn't mind Labour losing. The rest of them scare me.

    Wash your mouth out! Mordaunt and Hunt are still Tories!
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 14,912

    So the best man of the former Chancellor and leadership candidate thinks that the leadership should go to someone who has had a big job in Cabinet. What a surprise!

    It is a truism that the job always goes to someone who has held one of the Great Offices of State or LotO. That Rishi's mate says it does not alter that.
    Yeah, I agree with him actually, Badenoch hasn't got a hope. I was just pointing out that he's hardly an unbiased commentator, thanks to our incestuous privately educated political/media elite.
  • Scott_xP said:
    Sterling is at its strongest against Euro in months at $1.18 - was $1.16 last week.

    I wonder why you aren't mentioning that? 🤔
  • CookieCookie Posts: 11,184

    I think there are far more important issues than the culture wars. And falling back on this shows they don't have a lot to say on issues that matter like CoL.

    If Morduant, Hunt won I wouldn't mind Labour losing. The rest of them scare me.

    Wash your mouth out! Mordaunt and Hunt are still Tories!
    You'll need to check that with HYUFD, of course.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,837
    MISTY said:

    dixiedean said:

    Am beginning to wonder if we are missing the obvious here. That is the favourite and front runner.
    He seems to be sitting back while everyone else performs a Dutch auction, knowing he'll make the final two.
    I wouldn't fancy a head-to-head debate with Rishi on some of the fantasy economic policies I've heard so far.

    Rishi Sunak spent GBP450bn he did not have on fighting covid. Some of it was embezzled. Some was wasted. Some was spent on a furlough policy that paid people to do nothing for far longer than it needed to.

    That's fantasy economic policy, right there.

    Have no dog in this fight.
    Just observing that one has seen the books.
    They obviously aren't pretty.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,739
    A conspirator suggests Mordaunt will absorb Tugendhat’s campaign (Tugendhat offered foreign sec), Truss will take Badenoch’s (Gove as chancellor)
    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1546516211499925504
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    I must say having backed Hunt in the leadership race I find it very hard to stomach that he says he thinks he might have voted leave now that he thinks about it.

    I don't care about leave/remain but what opportunism.
  • Foxy said:

    Carnyx said:

    The key point in James Forsyth's analysis comes after the "but".

    In government, she is extremely unlikely to persuade 120 MPs to take a massive punt on a junior minister, regardless of whether they have certain merits.

    She might well emerge from this with her case strengthened to be LoTO is a few years time, and I suspect that is the realistic aim. But 20-1 to win now is far, far too short.

    Hmm, has it been remarked that Mr Gove not only manages to look good, future good of the party, etc., but also avoids upsetting any more immediately likely challenger by picking one? Keeps his bets open. And of course if against the odds Ms Badenoch wins, he's scored the jackpot.
    Sure. It's probably sensible enough for Gove to back someone who is an emerging figure who will probably come out of the process with her reputation improved and cabinet prospects strengthened (and may be LOTO by 2025). It is also a sly "you were the future once" up yours for Johnson.

    But I think 20-1 massively underestimates the hurdles for a relatively untested junior minister to be trusted by MPs in really challenging times to go straight in not just as party leader but PM. That just strikes me as VERY unlikely and people are under-pricing the issue.
    I think she will get the ERG backing.
    We don't even really know who is in the ERG. But in any event it's relatively loose and not a bloc vote. Even for Tory MPs whose number one issue is still Brexit, they aren't light on choice for authentic Brexiteer candidates. Indeed, the frontrunner was an original, referendum Leave supporter.

    I don't think this is anything near enough to get her into, or particularly close to, the top two amongst MPs.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,841
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    No, she has not even been a Cabinet Minister, she is just putting a marker down. Currently she is not even in the top 5 of MPs endorsements.

    As it stands Sunak leads with 37 MPs, then Mordaunt on 22, Tugendhat on 18, Truss on 15, Hunt on 14 and then Badenoch, Patel and Zahawi tied on 13

    https://conservativehome.com/2022/07/11/next-tory-leader-whos-backing-whom-our-working-list/

    Arent you backing No jobs in government ever Tugendhat?
    Tugendhat has chaired the Foreign Affairs Cttee however
    Does that count as 'cabinet' in Political Top Trumps then?
    It is still a leadership role, as was his position of Lieutenant Colonel in the Territorial Army
    I was captain of my cricket team. I'm up for PM.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,346
    Leon said:

    Jamie Wallis banned from driving for 6 months and 2500 fine. No by election.

    Six months? Less than if he'd blown p****d.
    I worked with someone who crashed his car into a parked Merc whilst pissed, caused £25 grands worth of damage, he abandoned his vehicle in the middle of the road and left his phone on the passenger seat. The police took the car (My company's car) into a secure compound and spent the next 24 hours trying to find the driver. He hid out in a friends house. Because the police never found him in time to prosecute for drink driving he got away with it completely. We sacked him for it but the police did nothing.

    Jamie Wallis banned from driving for 6 months and 2500 fine. No by election.

    Six months? Less than if he'd blown p****d.
    I worked with someone who crashed his car into a parked Merc whilst pissed, caused £25 grands worth of damage, he abandoned his vehicle in the middle of the road and left his phone on the passenger seat. The police took the car (My company's car) into a secure compound and spent the next 24 hours trying to find the driver. He hid out in a friends house. Because the police never found him in time to prosecute for drink driving he got away with it completely. We sacked him for it but the police did nothing.
    That's quite a story - that I shall file away for future use

    I'm intrigued that the police could not prosecute. No CCTV footage? Did he claim someone else was driving?

    I'm not doubting you, just curious that such an obvious ruse - run away and hide - would work
    I found it bizarre that the police did nothing against him. We told them who the driver was and where he lived and they went round there but couldn't find him and did nothing else.

    He tried to bring an unfair dismissal case against us saying that he was not drunk and had spent 4 hours in a pub drinking coke and that the accident had caused him to have a mental abhoration making him run away. The case never went anywhere.

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,149

    Leon said:

    Jamie Wallis banned from driving for 6 months and 2500 fine. No by election.

    Six months? Less than if he'd blown p****d.
    I worked with someone who crashed his car into a parked Merc whilst pissed, caused £25 grands worth of damage, he abandoned his vehicle in the middle of the road and left his phone on the passenger seat. The police took the car (My company's car) into a secure compound and spent the next 24 hours trying to find the driver. He hid out in a friends house. Because the police never found him in time to prosecute for drink driving he got away with it completely. We sacked him for it but the police did nothing.

    Jamie Wallis banned from driving for 6 months and 2500 fine. No by election.

    Six months? Less than if he'd blown p****d.
    I worked with someone who crashed his car into a parked Merc whilst pissed, caused £25 grands worth of damage, he abandoned his vehicle in the middle of the road and left his phone on the passenger seat. The police took the car (My company's car) into a secure compound and spent the next 24 hours trying to find the driver. He hid out in a friends house. Because the police never found him in time to prosecute for drink driving he got away with it completely. We sacked him for it but the police did nothing.
    That's quite a story - that I shall file away for future use

    I'm intrigued that the police could not prosecute. No CCTV footage? Did he claim someone else was driving?

    I'm not doubting you, just curious that such an obvious ruse - run away and hide - would work
    I found it bizarre that the police did nothing against him. We told them who the driver was and where he lived and they went round there but couldn't find him and did nothing else.

    He tried to bring an unfair dismissal case against us saying that he was not drunk and had spent 4 hours in a pub drinking coke and that the accident had caused him to have a mental abhoration making him run away. The case never went anywhere.

    How did you know he was pished?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,249
    TOPPING said:

    I must say having backed Hunt in the leadership race I find it very hard to stomach that he says he thinks he might have voted leave now that he thinks about it.

    I don't care about leave/remain but what opportunism.

    That is quite feeble

    Hunt has not got a chance
This discussion has been closed.