politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB lead down to just 3 percent with Ipsos-MORI
Even with LAB’s down to 34% with a 3% lead they’d still get an overall maj Electoral Calculus goo.gl/kvYwh twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…
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Sleazy Broken Labour on the slide.0
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Before anyone gets too excited, whilst a 3 point lead Labour is funny, a poll with the Tories on 31% is not a good poll for the Tories.0
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For those of us who believe it is the economy stupid
As with the YouGov/Sunday Times figures for the last few week’s, MORI’s figures also show an increase in economic optimism… or at least, a decrease in pessimism. 30% now expect the economy to improve in the next year, 31% to get worse – a net “feel good factor” of minus 1. This is up from minus 19 a month ago, and the highest since July 2010.0 -
O/T. My new article at the International Business Times -
'Thatcher, Cold War and Scottish Independence: New Frontier for Western Liberalism'
http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/articles/467828/20130515/scotland-referendum-liberalism-independence-thatcher-reagan-gorbachev.htm
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Mr Miliband has the least-negative net satisfaction rating of the three major party leaders, at -14.
But he is eclipsed by Mr Farage whose rating has risen to +11. Three in 10 voters have no opinion on the Ukip leader, however.
Mr Cameron’s rating has improved slightly in the past month from -28 to -21. But satisfaction with him has fallen among Conservatives.
Some 27 per cent of Tory supporters say they are “dissatisfied”, which is up from 22, while 67 per cent are satisfied, which is down four.
Mr Clegg’s rating has also improved from -44 to -37.
Ukip supporters are the most likely to say they are dissatisfied with the three major party leaders. Even Labour supporters are less likely to say they are dissatisfied with Mr Cameron than are Ukip supporters, for example.
Ipsos MORI interviewed 1,009 adults across GB by telephone from May 11 to 13. Data are weighted.0 -
13% UKIP. I would guess closer to 8-10% range.tim said:Others on 25%.
Unlikely.0 -
Labour supporters less motivated to "stop the blues" as the economy is doing better ?TheScreamingEagles said:For those of us who believe it is the economy stupid
As with the YouGov/Sunday Times figures for the last few week’s, MORI’s figures also show an increase in economic optimism… or at least, a decrease in pessimism. 30% now expect the economy to improve in the next year, 31% to get worse – a net “feel good factor” of minus 1. This is up from minus 19 a month ago, and the highest since July 2010.0 -
"Even with LAB's down to 34% with a 3% lead they'd still get an overall maj Electoral Calculus"
The prospect of a Tory HMG is just horrifying... ;^)0 -
Leadership ratings change
Miliband +2
Cameron +7
Clegg +7
Farage +30 -
Lab maj drifted from 2.22 last month to 2.34-2.38 on betfair.
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Many PBers may be unaware of my view but for clarity :
Ed Miliband will never be Prime Minister0 -
Who are you kidding?TheScreamingEagles said:Before anyone gets too excited, whilst a 3 point lead Labour is funny, a poll with the Tories on 31% is not a good poll for the Tories.
It's May 2013 with two years to go and Labour are only 3pts ahead - assuming this is an outlier its still very amusing and shows Labour are nowhere near breaking away from the Coalition Tories who therefore aren't even Tory Tories.0 -
@tim - cluching at straws, have you fallen that low? Poor thing.
Never mind. Uncle John is here to apply comforting balm and reassure you not to take mid term polls and leadership ratings (oh and projected national share from the locals, also 3% lead) TOO seriously. I don't and nor should you.
Watch those GDP figures and signs over the next 12 months that living standards may be on the up (clearly not evident from today's figures) and 2015 looks electorally somewhat enticing for some of us, doesn't it?0 -
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An interesting article, James. I was hoping to be amused, but in fact it's rather good and puts an original slant on things.JamesKelly said:O/T. My new article at the International Business Times -
'Thatcher, Cold War and Scottish Independence: New Frontier for Western Liberalism'
http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/articles/467828/20130515/scotland-referendum-liberalism-independence-thatcher-reagan-gorbachev.htm
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Most especially I'm greatly concerned that as the prospect of a Labour government fades away quicker than gold reserves under Gordon Brown, we shall see poor "tim" flailing around desperately for any straw in the wind that indicates Ed at No 10 !!
Sad ....
No really, it's very sad ....
Titters ....
Guffaws ....
LOL ....
ROFLOL0 -
This weeks MORI and ICM polls have been dreadful for Labour.0
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Sorry, I should have been clearer. I understand that the figures above only sum to 94% - I could see the calculation tim was doing - but the question is, what is that difference. What 6%, and where.DaemonBarber said:0 -
@JackW - Don't be too hard on tim. He has been very eloquent in his silence on the merits of Ed M.0
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@JohnO
"not to take mid term polls and leadership ratings (oh and projected national share from the locals, also 3% lead) TOO seriously"
There does seem to be a bit of a pattern here - even if just a coincidental one. Tee Hee.
Can I compare you to Harry O? I loved that detective series :^ )0 -
So how long till Dan Hodges' piece saying the Mori poll proves he was right that Ed is crap?0
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I still say Nick Clegg did very well at PMQs
James Forsyth @JGForsyth 1m
The Tory party unites, to take a pop at Nick Clegg
http://specc.ie/18KEHXw0 -
Mike should post odds on how long after some bad news for Labour, tim does a bunk for urgent 'consultations' with his old spin-mates. Usually more than 30 mins but less than an hour.0
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FPT:
These Ipsos-MORI figures only include those certain to vote (chortle!) so must hide an awful lot of dont knows.RichardNabavi said:A word of caution: Ipsos-MORI does tend to produce rather volatile figures, for reasons I've never quite understood (it might be their certainty-to-vote filter).
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'When, not if' – Nick Clegg says an EU referendum is inevitable. But what sort?
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jameskirkup/100217095/when-not-if-nick-clegg-says-an-eu-referendum-is-invitable-but-what-sort/0 -
He's already tweeted as such.TheScreamingEagles said:So how long till Dan Hodges' piece saying the Mori poll proves he was right that Ed is crap?
Apparently another "single" poll coming too which proves the point.0 -
One straw in the wind might be to do a seat calculation on those vote shares.JackW said:Most especially I'm greatly concerned that as the prospect of a Labour government fades away quicker than gold reserves under Gordon Brown, we shall see poor "tim" flailing around desperately for any straw in the wind that indicates Ed at No 10 !!
Sad ....
No really, it's very sad ....
Titters ....
Guffaws ....
LOL ....
ROFLOL
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.pl?CON=31&TVCON=&LAB=34&TVLAB=&LIB=10&TVLIB=&UKIP=13®ion=All+GB+changed+seats&boundary=2010&seat=--Show+all--&minorparties=Y
Lab majority 300 -
Is Ed M in "substantially positive" ratings territory yet? I mean it would be some months later than IOS predicted but welcome for him nonetheless.0
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Wow. Another dire Labour poll.0
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@JamesKelly is an excellent article writer. That was a really good read, the second by pb regulars elsewhere today.0
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I thought the same. The one exception was the discussion of Clinton "lecturing" on what Quebec must accept. He's entitled to his view.RichardNabavi said:
An interesting article, James. I was hoping to be amused, but in fact it's rather good and puts an original slant on things.JamesKelly said:O/T. My new article at the International Business Times -
'Thatcher, Cold War and Scottish Independence: New Frontier for Western Liberalism'
http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/articles/467828/20130515/scotland-referendum-liberalism-independence-thatcher-reagan-gorbachev.htm0 -
I'd guess the LD's will hold more than 24 seats, even on ~10%0
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Nick Palmer FPT
"To be fair, that was the reason MEPs objected to the supposed budget cut - they said it was grandstanding since it made no sense to cut spending without deciding to cut any specific programmes, and it would thus put the Commission in an impossible position. Seems Ministers - including Britain - have now said, "Er, yes, OK, we don't actually want to cut any programmes, so here's some more dosh.""
Simply not true. They did not agree at all. Holland, Finland and the UK all voted against the top up but they didn't have sufficient votes to block the proposal and so they lost. The joys of QMV.
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I see abuse at Mr Thomas has moved to these comments:
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jameskirkup/100217095/when-not-if-nick-clegg-says-an-eu-referendum-is-invitable-but-what-sort/0 -
Not particularly but they hide an awful lot of people who say they are 9/10 and 8/10 etc certain to voteMikeK said:FPT:
These Ipsos-MORI figures only include those certain to vote (chortle!) so must hide an awful lot of dont knows.RichardNabavi said:A word of caution: Ipsos-MORI does tend to produce rather volatile figures, for reasons I've never quite understood (it might be their certainty-to-vote filter).
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Heavens above. Never thought I'd see on PB "tim" "merit" and "eloquent" in such a short sentence !!RichardNabavi said:@JackW - Don't be too hard on tim. He has been very eloquent in his silence on the merits of Ed M.
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At this point in 2005-2010 Parliament Conservatives had a 13% lead on the following vote shares;
Ipsos-MORI/
2008-05-18
Con 41% Lab 28% Lib-Dem 20% Con Lead 13%
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2005-2010
If the Tories can shut up about Europe for five minutes we must be very close now for the media narrative to be all about Ed Milibands dismal mid term performance.0 -
I see BOE has upgraded its forecasts for the current Q.
"Today's projections are for growth to be a little stronger and inflation a little weaker than we expected three months ago. That's the first time I've been able to say that since before the financial crisis."
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Interesting stats from Mr Hodges - do we have access to a breakdown of these from the EC or are they below the declaration threshold?
"It’s true that Labour remains heavily dependent on trade union funding, but most of the income comparisons that are published concentrate exclusively on donations above £7,500. In fact, Labour’s online and small value donations now exceed the amount the party receives in trade union affiliation fees. That still leaves the big one-off donations from the unions, but again party officials are working to rationalise the way that funding is received. “We’re trying to get away from the practice where the unions just dump these big multi-million pound donations on us in the last three months before an election,” said one Labour insider, “All that happens is the money gets blown on posters and leaflets. We need to be able to start building up an infrastructure.”
The problem for Labour is the big general election donations are traditionally used as demonstration of each individual union's virility. It used to be common for some unions to deliberately hold back their final tranche of cash until they knew what their brothers/competitors were donating, just so they could top it. “How much have Unite given? How much?! Damn. We’re going to have to get another £250,000 from somewhere.”
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danhodges/100217138/non-predatory-but-non-profitable-are-labour-still-singing-the-praises-of-the-co-operative-bank/0 -
Methodology seems to get an airing when it's bad for the lefties.MarkSenior said:
Not particularly but they hide an awful lot of people who say they are 9/10 and 8/10 etc certain to voteMikeK said:FPT:
These Ipsos-MORI figures only include those certain to vote (chortle!) so must hide an awful lot of dont knows.RichardNabavi said:A word of caution: Ipsos-MORI does tend to produce rather volatile figures, for reasons I've never quite understood (it might be their certainty-to-vote filter).
Average turn out at a GE is ?
Total of sample indicating a 10 ?
I assume IM have honed this over time - for good reasons.0 -
How very dare you quote "Electoral Calculus" at the founder and CEO of ARSE. Pale imitations of my vast rump simply do not enter my calculations !!edmundintokyo said:
One straw in the wind might be to do a seat calculation on those vote shares.JackW said:Most especially I'm greatly concerned that as the prospect of a Labour government fades away quicker than gold reserves under Gordon Brown, we shall see poor "tim" flailing around desperately for any straw in the wind that indicates Ed at No 10 !!
Sad ....
No really, it's very sad ....
Titters ....
Guffaws ....
LOL ....
ROFLOL
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.pl?CON=31&TVCON=&LAB=34&TVLAB=&LIB=10&TVLIB=&UKIP=13®ion=All+GB+changed+seats&boundary=2010&seat=--Show+all--&minorparties=Y
Lab majority 30
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I'm no strategist!Plato said:
I guess you missed my query the other day - what do you think would improve Labour's polling - we have very different views on what is required and I'd be interested in knowing your ideas.BenM said:Wow. Another dire Labour poll.
All I know is that Labour are much much further away from winning the next General Election than I thought they were.
The question is are they behind the Tories in the race at this juncture taking into account swingback, rising economic confidence (no matter that any recovery will still be weak), Tory media power and so on?
One thing I will say is that despite what he thinks DanHodgesism won't save Labour any more than the current confused state of the Party will. Gutlessly backing the Tory mantra just makes the case for voters to vote Tory next time - which they will.0 -
IN ONE POLL. YouGov this morning showed a 10pt lead for Labour. Any comments on that?Plato said:
Who are you kidding?TheScreamingEagles said:Before anyone gets too excited, whilst a 3 point lead Labour is funny, a poll with the Tories on 31% is not a good poll for the Tories.
It's May 2013 with two years to go and Labour are only 3pts ahead - assuming this is an outlier its still very amusing and shows Labour are nowhere near breaking away from the Coalition Tories who therefore aren't even Tory Tories.
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You talk about the Labour brand and yes Labour has a basic brand that gets good ratings on the NHS etc, however, it has been damaged by the Brown years. The problem is that after 3 years no-one knows what Ed Miliband stands for still and he has done nothing to win back trust from non-core supporters.tim said:RichardNabavi said:@JackW - Don't be too hard on tim. He has been very eloquent in his silence on the merits of Ed M.
If Cameron isn't ahead of Miliband on the leader ratings the Tories will lose power.
The Labour brand and FPTP will see to that.
There is no doubt in my mind that the Tories will go massively negative on Labout at GE15. They will portray Miliband as Red Ed and Labour as the irresponsible party of shirkers. As Labour have done nothing to repair their brand it seems likely some of these charges will stick.0 -
BBC Question Time @bbcquestiontime
Final panel this week - Philip Hammond, @ChrisBryantMP, @charles_kennedy, Gillian Tett and @PeterBazalgette #bbcqt0 -
I like the way SeanT now has, apparently, a liberal mind!Socrates said:I see abuse at Mr Thomas has moved to these comments:
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jameskirkup/100217095/when-not-if-nick-clegg-says-an-eu-referendum-is-invitable-but-what-sort/0 -
Good afternoon, everyone.
Looks like an outlier to me, but still not great for the sole nationwide opposition party to somehow be shedding support.0 -
This is all before the spot light is really put upon Labour in a run up to the Election.
Pathetic performance by them all things considered.
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Don't know if it has been mentioned but the Liberals confounded the pollsters and pundits and won the British Columbia election yesterday . Angus Reid had NDP ahead by 9 and Ipsos had NDP ahead by 8 in their final polls yet the Liberals won by 5% . The Greens gained one seat and the Conservatives won none .0
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It amuses me how the supporters on PB of the Con/Lab/Lib party talk about their respective nemesis: the leaders of the third of the party.
1. Tory: Cammo, a windmill loving, dithering on everything type leader, with more U-turns than a helter-skelter and loves the colour turquoise instead of blue. Can be relied to hide behind his family as measure of last resort.
2. Labour: Red Ed, back stabber and intriguer par excellence. Has nose job to talk without mumbling (doesn't work BTW), never says anything without appearing quite daft. His motto: unions are my mates.
3. L/Dem: Cleggover, serial liar and breaker of dyed in the wool promises. Has high hopes of massive EU job if ousted. Loves the number 30.0 -
Were it that they were. All that has happened is their certainty to vote percentage has fallen 6pts. Otherwise same as last time at 38%.Morris_Dancer said:Good afternoon, everyone.
Looks like an outlier to me, but still not great for the sole nationwide opposition party to somehow be shedding support.
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I'll have a Lib Dem membership form sent over.JosiasJessop said:
I like the way SeanT now has, apparently, a liberal mind!Socrates said:I see abuse at Mr Thomas has moved to these comments:
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jameskirkup/100217095/when-not-if-nick-clegg-says-an-eu-referendum-is-invitable-but-what-sort/0 -
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hmm, I'd have thought your concern should more be first the loss of zeal, then the creeping discontent, then the active desire to do something different. If labourites are losing enthusiasm to vote for labour then the flow of traffic is in the wrong direction and others have their chance. Do you think Ed's lack of standing for anything is switching people off ?tim said:The research also finds support for Labour, among all those certain to vote, at the lowest it has been since the 2010 General Election at 34%. However, this is due to a fall in the strength of support among Labour voters rather than a switch to other parties. Only 57% of Labour supporters say they are certain to vote at the next election (down six points over the month), compared to 67% of Conservatives, 68% of Liberal Democrats and 75% of UKIP supporters. Among all those naming a party, Labour is unchanged from April’s poll at 38%.
Local elections in the Tory shires, and UKIP zeal of the convert.0 -
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The Ipsos full data tables show Greens at 6% and the remaining others at 6% . In the whole sample UKIP were only at 11% , Con 31% Lab 38% LD 10%0
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List of MPs who've signed the Amendment on the EU Referendum:
Mr John Baron (Con)
Mr Nigel Dodds (DUP)
Kelvin Hopkins(Lab)
Mr Peter Bone (Con)
Mr Philip Hollobone (Con)
John Cryer (Lab)
Philip Davies (Con)
Mr Douglas Carswell (Con)
Mr Edward Leigh (Con)
Mr John Redwood (Con)
Mr David Davis (Con)
Mr Bernard Jenkin (Con)
Dr Matthew Offord (Con)
Mr William Cash (Con)
Mr Crispin Blunt (Con)
Mr Aidan Burley (Con)
Karen Lumley (Con)
Andrew Rosindell (Con)
Bill Wiggin (Con)
Chris Kelly (Con)
Mr David Nuttall (Con)
Mrs Cheryl Gillan (Con)
Andrew Bingham (Con)
Fiona Bruce (Con)
Craig Whittaker (Con)
Mr James Gray (Con)
Adam Afriyie (Con)
Jason McCartney (Con)
Henry Smith (Con)
Andrew Percy (Con)
Mark Pritchard (Con)
Mr Ian Liddell-Grainger (Con)
Mr James Clappison (Con)
Mrs Anne Main (Con)
Stephen McPartland (Con)
Heather Wheeler (Con)
Mr Charles Walker (Con)
Sheryll Murray (Con)
Mr Laurence Robertson (Con)
Bob Stewart (Con)
Richard Drax (Con)
Martin Vickers (Con)
Mike Weatherley (Con)
Gordon Henderson (Con)
Zac Goldsmith (Con)
Kate Hoey (Lab)
Steve Brine (Con)
Nigel Mills (Con)
Mr Andrew Turner (Con)
Dr Julian Lewis (Con)
John Stevenson (Con)
Guto Bebb (Con)
Nick de Bois (Con)
Mr Brian Binley (Con)
Sir Richard Shepherd (Con)
Mr Adam Holloway (Con)
Gavin Barwell (Con)
Mr Stewart Jackson (Con)
Dr William McCrea (DUP)
David Morris (Con)
Dr Sarah Wollaston (Con)
Mr Frank Field (Lab)
Natascha Engel (Lab)
Sir Roger Gale (Con)
Charlotte Leslie (Con)
Anne Marie Morris (Con)
Iain Stewart (Con)
David Simpson (DUP)
Mr Jeffrey M. Donaldson (DUP)
Jim Shannon (DUP)
Bob Blackman (Con)
Mr Gregory Campbell (DUP)
Mr David Amess (Con)
Mr Christopher Chope (Con)
Conor Burns (Con)
Alun Cairns (Con)
Dr Phillip Lee (Con)
Nadine Dorries (Con)
Andrew Bridgen (Con)
Caroline Nokes (Con)
Graham Stringer (Lab)
Dan Byles (Con)
Simon Hart (Con)
Grahame M. Morris (Lab)
Jeremy Corbyn (Lab)
Mr Dennis Skinner (Lab)
Tim Loughton (Con)
John Hemming (LD)
Austin Mitchell (Lab)
Sir Gerald Howarth (Con)
Karl McCartney (Con)
Rosie Cooper (Lab)
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This might seem an odd point but has any pollster ever cross tabbed the likelihood to vote of individuals against what they say their certainty to vote is. A fair few of these 10/10s may well be people wanting to look like they are interested to a pollster whereas the 9s might be more likely to vote and just perhaps aren't sure if they might be on a holiday or some such. After all how can anyone be 100% (10/10) they will be able to vote in a GE. I'd probably give a 9/10 answer if polled0
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So factoring in only those who were 10/10 certain to vote made no difference to Tory numbers compared to the whole sample?MarkSenior said:The Ipsos full data tables show Greens at 6% and the remaining others at 6% . In the whole sample UKIP were only at 11% , Con 31% Lab 38% LD 10%
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CorrectDaemonBarber said:
So factoring in only those who were 10/10 certain to vote made no difference to Tory numbers compared to the whole sample?MarkSenior said:The Ipsos full data tables show Greens at 6% and the remaining others at 6% . In the whole sample UKIP were only at 11% , Con 31% Lab 38% LD 10%
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Plato - Carswell and Goldsmith already stated they wont vote in favour tonight.
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My local MP (Engel) also voted with Carswell's EU thingamajig about a year or so back. Food for thought...Plato said:List of MPs who've signed the Amendment on the EU Referendum:
Mr John Baron (Con)
Mr Nigel Dodds (DUP)
Kelvin Hopkins(Lab)
Mr Peter Bone (Con)
Mr Philip Hollobone (Con)
John Cryer (Lab)
Philip Davies (Con)
Mr Douglas Carswell (Con)
Mr Edward Leigh (Con)
Mr John Redwood (Con)
Mr David Davis (Con)
Mr Bernard Jenkin (Con)
Dr Matthew Offord (Con)
Mr William Cash (Con)
Mr Crispin Blunt (Con)
Mr Aidan Burley (Con)
Karen Lumley (Con)
Andrew Rosindell (Con)
Bill Wiggin (Con)
Chris Kelly (Con)
Mr David Nuttall (Con)
Mrs Cheryl Gillan (Con)
Andrew Bingham (Con)
Fiona Bruce (Con)
Craig Whittaker (Con)
Mr James Gray (Con)
Adam Afriyie (Con)
Jason McCartney (Con)
Henry Smith (Con)
Andrew Percy (Con)
Mark Pritchard (Con)
Mr Ian Liddell-Grainger (Con)
Mr James Clappison (Con)
Mrs Anne Main (Con)
Stephen McPartland (Con)
Heather Wheeler (Con)
Mr Charles Walker (Con)
Sheryll Murray (Con)
Mr Laurence Robertson (Con)
Bob Stewart (Con)
Richard Drax (Con)
Martin Vickers (Con)
Mike Weatherley (Con)
Gordon Henderson (Con)
Zac Goldsmith (Con)
Kate Hoey (Lab)
Steve Brine (Con)
Nigel Mills (Con)
Mr Andrew Turner (Con)
Dr Julian Lewis (Con)
John Stevenson (Con)
Guto Bebb (Con)
Nick de Bois (Con)
Mr Brian Binley (Con)
Sir Richard Shepherd (Con)
Mr Adam Holloway (Con)
Gavin Barwell (Con)
Mr Stewart Jackson (Con)
Dr William McCrea (DUP)
David Morris (Con)
Dr Sarah Wollaston (Con)
Mr Frank Field (Lab)
Natascha Engel (Lab)
Sir Roger Gale (Con)
Charlotte Leslie (Con)
Anne Marie Morris (Con)
Iain Stewart (Con)
David Simpson (DUP)
Mr Jeffrey M. Donaldson (DUP)
Jim Shannon (DUP)
Bob Blackman (Con)
Mr Gregory Campbell (DUP)
Mr David Amess (Con)
Mr Christopher Chope (Con)
Conor Burns (Con)
Alun Cairns (Con)
Dr Phillip Lee (Con)
Nadine Dorries (Con)
Andrew Bridgen (Con)
Caroline Nokes (Con)
Graham Stringer (Lab)
Dan Byles (Con)
Simon Hart (Con)
Grahame M. Morris (Lab)
Jeremy Corbyn (Lab)
Mr Dennis Skinner (Lab)
Tim Loughton (Con)
John Hemming (LD)
Austin Mitchell (Lab)
Sir Gerald Howarth (Con)
Karl McCartney (Con)
Rosie Cooper (Lab)0 -
It's not an odd question at all – it's a good one. Also, not sure why Mori only uses the 10/10: I can understand their having that filter but I'd probably accept nines and even eights.Pulpstar said:This might seem an odd point but has any pollster ever cross tabbed the likelihood to vote of individuals against what they say their certainty to vote is. A fair few of these 10/10s may well be people wanting to look like they are interested to a pollster whereas the 9s might be more likely to vote and just perhaps aren't sure if they might be on a holiday or some such. After all how can anyone be 100% (10/10) they will be able to vote in a GE. I'd probably give a 9/10 answer if polled
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You're spoiling us now. Two of your pet topics wrapped up in one newspaper wrapper. Delicious.tim said:
Like thisTheWatcher said:
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/02/business/global/02austerity.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0
Combined with reversing the evil of immigration you could use Lithuania as a model.
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Yes, I've got an article coming up on it. (A bit data heavy, so taking a while)Pulpstar said:This might seem an odd point but has any pollster ever cross tabbed the likelihood to vote of individuals against what they say their certainty to vote is. A fair few of these 10/10s may well be people wanting to look like they are interested to a pollster whereas the 9s might be more likely to vote and just perhaps aren't sure if they might be on a holiday or some such. After all how can anyone be 100% (10/10) they will be able to vote in a GE. I'd probably give a 9/10 answer if polled
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OT...
This Friday is International Day Against Homophobia (IDAHO).
May 17 was chosen to commemorate the World Health Organization’s decision in 1990 to declassify homosexuality as a mental disorder.
Can't believe it was a recent as 1990 that homosexuality was considered an illness.
Starting to see how attitudes can change so rapidly. Within a single generation we have moved from this to widley accepting same-sex marriage.
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http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danhodges/100217138/non-predatory-but-non-profitable-are-labour-still-singing-the-praises-of-the-co-operative-bank/
"The Labour Party is broke. According to Sam Coates in this morning’s Times, “Labour is facing a new financial crisis after it emerged that the party depends on a massive overdraft from the troubled Co-operative Bank. The party relies on a £3.9 million lifeline from the ailing lender, which could be cut as part of the overhaul or sale of the bank.”
To be fair, the Labour Party has always been as profligate with its own money as it is with everybody else’s."
"There seems to be a strange silence concerning the crisis afflicting the Left’s favourite banking institution. As far as I’m aware UK Uncut has no protests planned. The banks directors are not facing sit-ins on their driveways from activists enraged at the betrayal of the bank’s loyal customers. I haven’t read that Labour has any debates planned or EDMs tabled. Not so much as a single call from Ed Miliband for an urgent public inquiry. Nor does a trawl of the internet find any record of demands from the Labour leader, or his front bench spokesman, for former boss Neville Richardson, who left the Co-Op in 2011 with £4.6 million, to repay any of his bonus."0 -
Anthony Wells once published an analysis of voting compared with declared certainty to vote (I think it was a panel and they went back and asked - of course, people may lie). It was pretty linear but not from 0 to 100% - people who said they were 10/10 sure usually did, those who said 0/10 usually didn't, but there were a fair number in both cases who differed from their declared intention. The fairest is probably to weight with declared certainty.Pulpstar said:This might seem an odd point but has any pollster ever cross tabbed the likelihood to vote of individuals against what they say their certainty to vote is. A fair few of these 10/10s may well be people wanting to look like they are interested to a pollster whereas the 9s might be more likely to vote and just perhaps aren't sure if they might be on a holiday or some such. After all how can anyone be 100% (10/10) they will be able to vote in a GE. I'd probably give a 9/10 answer if polled
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Austerity and Immigration. I wasn't thinking of your other comedy routine but thanks for reminding me.tim said:TheWatcher said:
You're spoiling us now. Two of your pet topics wrapped up in one newspaper wrapper. Delicious.tim said:
Like thisTheWatcher said:
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/02/business/global/02austerity.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0
Combined with reversing the evil of immigration you could use Lithuania as a model.
The Tories Neo Nazi allies are Latvian, not that I expect you to recognise the difference.
You really are rattled.
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Christ-on-a-bike, some of those commenters are bonkers. I mean properly, eye-swivellingly nuts. An example:Socrates said:I see abuse at Mr Thomas has moved to these comments:
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jameskirkup/100217095/when-not-if-nick-clegg-says-an-eu-referendum-is-invitable-but-what-sort/
"...Sean Thomas is a vile piece of scum who by trying to take attention away from these gangs and blame the wholly innocent Nick Griffin is himself complicit in child rape."0 -
0
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Paul Waugh @paulwaugh 3m
Osbo on top form, seizing on Hollande GDP woes. 'We don't hear much of the French connection from Labour these days'
hehehe0 -
Fair enough - thanks for the correction.Richard_Tyndall said:Nick Palmer FPT
"To be fair, that was the reason MEPs objected to the supposed budget cut - they said it was grandstanding since it made no sense to cut spending without deciding to cut any specific programmes, and it would thus put the Commission in an impossible position. Seems Ministers - including Britain - have now said, "Er, yes, OK, we don't actually want to cut any programmes, so here's some more dosh.""
Simply not true. They did not agree at all. Holland, Finland and the UK all voted against the top up but they didn't have sufficient votes to block the proposal and so they lost. The joys of QMV.
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It was illegal to have gay sex in Scotland until 1980 - and in NI in 1982 - it was legal in England and Wales from 1967, that really surprised me at the gap between.DaemonBarber said:OT...
This Friday is International Day Against Homophobia (IDAHO).
May 17 was chosen to commemorate the World Health Organization’s decision in 1990 to declassify homosexuality as a mental disorder.
Can't believe it was a recent as 1990 that homosexuality was considered an illness.
Starting to see how attitudes can change so rapidly. Within a single generation we have moved from this to widley accepting same-sex marriage.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sexual_Offences_Act_19670 -
UKIP candidate for Aberdeen Donside by-election chosen: Otto Inglis.
http://news.stv.tv/north/225325-ukip-unveils-its-candidate-for-the-aberdeen-donside-by-election/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aberdeen_Donside_(Scottish_Parliament_constituency)#Election_results0 -
I've updated the header to include both sets of voting numbers and also this month's leader ratings.0
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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22539965
The good news just keeps on coming. And Labour on 34% 2 years from GE, Milibands stock is falling fast - time to fire up the quattro!0 -
FPT and in response to Socrates:-
"Socrates said:
This is an incredible bit from SeanT's column:
"Why did Afzal [head of the North West prosecution service] succeed where others feared to tread? Afzal himself says: "My Pakistani heritage helped cut through barriers within the black and minority ethnic communities, And white professionals' oversensitivity to political correctness and fear of appearing racist may well have contributed to justice being stalled.”"
The actual head of the authority in charge of getting these convictions has says its down to oversensitivity to political correctness. How on Earth does this not get reported by the mainstream media?"
To be fair, I saw this reported a while back. So it has been - even if not widely publicised.
And over-sensitivity was not the only reason. On Newsnight last night Keir Starmer was very good at explaining how prosecutors assessed the evidential value of the victims and came up with the conclusion that they would be poor witnesses hence no point prosecuting rather than seeing them as abused children and looking at the wider picture.
We have a tendency to forget that 12-13-14-year olds are children. All the more so when they are abandoned in "care".
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Miliband was a fool to tie himself to the French model, and now he's going to pay the price for it over and over and over.tim said:
He never learns does he.Slackbladder said:Paul Waugh @paulwaugh 3m
Osbo on top form, seizing on Hollande GDP woes. 'We don't hear much of the French connection from Labour these days'
hehehe
Who said this?
The US economy has grown more slowly than the UK economy so far this year, despite fiscal stimulus in the former and fiscal consolidation in the latter, showing that the problem is not too much fiscal responsibility.0 -
Interesting that the satisfaction ratings of everyone seem to have impoved since last month in this poll. A less grumpy sample? The contrast with Maggie fading? A consequence of economic confidence improving?0
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Comments on Telegraph blogs can be quite appalling as I found out last year when doing three piece a week on the US election.
I see they've stopped comments on the latest from SeanTAnorak said:
Christ-on-a-bike, some of those commenters are bonkers. I mean properly, eye-swivellingly nuts. An example:Socrates said:I see abuse at Mr Thomas has moved to these comments:
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jameskirkup/100217095/when-not-if-nick-clegg-says-an-eu-referendum-is-invitable-but-what-sort/
"...Sean Thomas is a vile piece of scum who by trying to take attention away from these gangs and blame the wholly innocent Nick Griffin is himself complicit in child rape."0 -
PR^2
Lab 306
Con 255
UKIP 45
LD 260 -
"You ever been to Poughkeepsie: Huh?"Slackbladder said:Paul Waugh @paulwaugh 3m
Osbo on top form, seizing on Hollande GDP woes. 'We don't hear much of the French connection from Labour these days'
hehehe0 -
Now I've got images of EdM sitting on his bed in Poughkeepsie picking his toes.TGOHF said:
"You ever been to Poughkeepsie: Huh?"Slackbladder said:Paul Waugh @paulwaugh 3m
Osbo on top form, seizing on Hollande GDP woes. 'We don't hear much of the French connection from Labour these days'
hehehe
Thanks
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The French model is Austerity.Slackbladder said:
Miliband was a fool to tie himself to the French model, and now he's going to pay the price for it over and over and over.tim said:
He never learns does he.Slackbladder said:Paul Waugh @paulwaugh 3m
Osbo on top form, seizing on Hollande GDP woes. 'We don't hear much of the French connection from Labour these days'
hehehe
Who said this?
The US economy has grown more slowly than the UK economy so far this year, despite fiscal stimulus in the former and fiscal consolidation in the latter, showing that the problem is not too much fiscal responsibility.
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17 May 1990 is the most famous date for anone who works in pension law, because it was the date of the decision of the European Court of Justice in Barber v GRE, which decided that the Treaty of Rome had direct effect in British law and so any sex discriminatory terms of pension schemes had to be equalised.DaemonBarber said:OT...
This Friday is International Day Against Homophobia (IDAHO).
May 17 was chosen to commemorate the World Health Organization’s decision in 1990 to declassify homosexuality as a mental disorder.
Can't believe it was a recent as 1990 that homosexuality was considered an illness.
Starting to see how attitudes can change so rapidly. Within a single generation we have moved from this to widley accepting same-sex marriage.
This decision has kept me in paid work for my entire career. God bless the EU!0 -
That would have been the most productive thing he has done for the last 3 years.DaemonBarber said:
Now I've got images of EdM sitting on his bed in Poughkeepsie picking his toes.TGOHF said:
"You ever been to Poughkeepsie: Huh?"Slackbladder said:Paul Waugh @paulwaugh 3m
Osbo on top form, seizing on Hollande GDP woes. 'We don't hear much of the French connection from Labour these days'
hehehe
Thanks
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High taxes, no welfare reforms.tim said:
I suspect you don't understand what the "French model " is do you.Slackbladder said:
Miliband was a fool to tie himself to the French model, and now he's going to pay the price for it over and over and over.tim said:
He never learns does he.Slackbladder said:Paul Waugh @paulwaugh 3m
Osbo on top form, seizing on Hollande GDP woes. 'We don't hear much of the French connection from Labour these days'
hehehe
Who said this?
The US economy has grown more slowly than the UK economy so far this year, despite fiscal stimulus in the former and fiscal consolidation in the latter, showing that the problem is not too much fiscal responsibility.
Care to explain to us the policy regarding austerity and parallels with Labour?
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Well, it is very difficult to make meaningful comparators when one side of the equations gives you a blank sheet of paper.tim said:
I suspect you don't understand what the "French model " is do you.Slackbladder said:
Miliband was a fool to tie himself to the French model, and now he's going to pay the price for it over and over and over.tim said:
He never learns does he.Slackbladder said:Paul Waugh @paulwaugh 3m
Osbo on top form, seizing on Hollande GDP woes. 'We don't hear much of the French connection from Labour these days'
hehehe
Who said this?
The US economy has grown more slowly than the UK economy so far this year, despite fiscal stimulus in the former and fiscal consolidation in the latter, showing that the problem is not too much fiscal responsibility.
Care to explain to us the policy regarding austerity and parallels with Labour?0
