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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB lead down to just 3 percent with Ipsos-MORI
Even with LAB’s down to 34% with a 3% lead they’d still get an overall maj Electoral Calculus goo.gl/kvYwh twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…
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As with the YouGov/Sunday Times figures for the last few week’s, MORI’s figures also show an increase in economic optimism… or at least, a decrease in pessimism. 30% now expect the economy to improve in the next year, 31% to get worse – a net “feel good factor” of minus 1. This is up from minus 19 a month ago, and the highest since July 2010.
'Thatcher, Cold War and Scottish Independence: New Frontier for Western Liberalism'
http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/articles/467828/20130515/scotland-referendum-liberalism-independence-thatcher-reagan-gorbachev.htm
But he is eclipsed by Mr Farage whose rating has risen to +11. Three in 10 voters have no opinion on the Ukip leader, however.
Mr Cameron’s rating has improved slightly in the past month from -28 to -21. But satisfaction with him has fallen among Conservatives.
Some 27 per cent of Tory supporters say they are “dissatisfied”, which is up from 22, while 67 per cent are satisfied, which is down four.
Mr Clegg’s rating has also improved from -44 to -37.
Ukip supporters are the most likely to say they are dissatisfied with the three major party leaders. Even Labour supporters are less likely to say they are dissatisfied with Mr Cameron than are Ukip supporters, for example.
Ipsos MORI interviewed 1,009 adults across GB by telephone from May 11 to 13. Data are weighted.
The prospect of a Tory HMG is just horrifying... ;^)
Miliband +2
Cameron +7
Clegg +7
Farage +3
Ed Miliband will never be Prime Minister
It's May 2013 with two years to go and Labour are only 3pts ahead - assuming this is an outlier its still very amusing and shows Labour are nowhere near breaking away from the Coalition Tories who therefore aren't even Tory Tories.
What's the difference?
Are the tables somewhere yet?
Never mind. Uncle John is here to apply comforting balm and reassure you not to take mid term polls and leadership ratings (oh and projected national share from the locals, also 3% lead) TOO seriously. I don't and nor should you.
Watch those GDP figures and signs over the next 12 months that living standards may be on the up (clearly not evident from today's figures) and 2015 looks electorally somewhat enticing for some of us, doesn't it?
31 + 34 + 10 + 13 = 88
Other = 12
Sad ....
No really, it's very sad ....
Titters ....
Guffaws ....
LOL ....
ROFLOL
"not to take mid term polls and leadership ratings (oh and projected national share from the locals, also 3% lead) TOO seriously"
There does seem to be a bit of a pattern here - even if just a coincidental one. Tee Hee.
Can I compare you to Harry O? I loved that detective series :^ )
James Forsyth @JGForsyth 1m
The Tory party unites, to take a pop at Nick Clegg
http://specc.ie/18KEHXw
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jameskirkup/100217095/when-not-if-nick-clegg-says-an-eu-referendum-is-invitable-but-what-sort/
Apparently another "single" poll coming too which proves the point.
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.pl?CON=31&TVCON=&LAB=34&TVLAB=&LIB=10&TVLIB=&UKIP=13®ion=All+GB+changed+seats&boundary=2010&seat=--Show+all--&minorparties=Y
Lab majority 30
"To be fair, that was the reason MEPs objected to the supposed budget cut - they said it was grandstanding since it made no sense to cut spending without deciding to cut any specific programmes, and it would thus put the Commission in an impossible position. Seems Ministers - including Britain - have now said, "Er, yes, OK, we don't actually want to cut any programmes, so here's some more dosh.""
Simply not true. They did not agree at all. Holland, Finland and the UK all voted against the top up but they didn't have sufficient votes to block the proposal and so they lost. The joys of QMV.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jameskirkup/100217095/when-not-if-nick-clegg-says-an-eu-referendum-is-invitable-but-what-sort/
Ipsos-MORI/
2008-05-18
Con 41% Lab 28% Lib-Dem 20% Con Lead 13%
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2005-2010
If the Tories can shut up about Europe for five minutes we must be very close now for the media narrative to be all about Ed Milibands dismal mid term performance.
"Today's projections are for growth to be a little stronger and inflation a little weaker than we expected three months ago. That's the first time I've been able to say that since before the financial crisis."
"It’s true that Labour remains heavily dependent on trade union funding, but most of the income comparisons that are published concentrate exclusively on donations above £7,500. In fact, Labour’s online and small value donations now exceed the amount the party receives in trade union affiliation fees. That still leaves the big one-off donations from the unions, but again party officials are working to rationalise the way that funding is received. “We’re trying to get away from the practice where the unions just dump these big multi-million pound donations on us in the last three months before an election,” said one Labour insider, “All that happens is the money gets blown on posters and leaflets. We need to be able to start building up an infrastructure.”
The problem for Labour is the big general election donations are traditionally used as demonstration of each individual union's virility. It used to be common for some unions to deliberately hold back their final tranche of cash until they knew what their brothers/competitors were donating, just so they could top it. “How much have Unite given? How much?! Damn. We’re going to have to get another £250,000 from somewhere.”
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danhodges/100217138/non-predatory-but-non-profitable-are-labour-still-singing-the-praises-of-the-co-operative-bank/
Average turn out at a GE is ?
Total of sample indicating a 10 ?
I assume IM have honed this over time - for good reasons.
All I know is that Labour are much much further away from winning the next General Election than I thought they were.
The question is are they behind the Tories in the race at this juncture taking into account swingback, rising economic confidence (no matter that any recovery will still be weak), Tory media power and so on?
One thing I will say is that despite what he thinks DanHodgesism won't save Labour any more than the current confused state of the Party will. Gutlessly backing the Tory mantra just makes the case for voters to vote Tory next time - which they will.
There is no doubt in my mind that the Tories will go massively negative on Labout at GE15. They will portray Miliband as Red Ed and Labour as the irresponsible party of shirkers. As Labour have done nothing to repair their brand it seems likely some of these charges will stick.
Final panel this week - Philip Hammond, @ChrisBryantMP, @charles_kennedy, Gillian Tett and @PeterBazalgette #bbcqt
Looks like an outlier to me, but still not great for the sole nationwide opposition party to somehow be shedding support.
Pathetic performance by them all things considered.
1. Tory: Cammo, a windmill loving, dithering on everything type leader, with more U-turns than a helter-skelter and loves the colour turquoise instead of blue. Can be relied to hide behind his family as measure of last resort.
2. Labour: Red Ed, back stabber and intriguer par excellence. Has nose job to talk without mumbling (doesn't work BTW), never says anything without appearing quite daft. His motto: unions are my mates.
3. L/Dem: Cleggover, serial liar and breaker of dyed in the wool promises. Has high hopes of massive EU job if ousted. Loves the number 30.
I suppose at the last GE my forecasting within two seats was a bit shabby. I'll try a wee bit harder in 2015.
What a disaster awaits otherwise.
https://www.google.co.uk/publicdata/explore?ds=d5bncppjof8f9_&met_y=sp_pop_totl&idim=country:BLR&dl=en&hl=en&q=population belarus#!ctype=l&strail=false&bcs=d&nselm=h&met_y=sp_pop_totl&scale_y=lin&ind_y=false&rdim=region&idim=country:LTU&ifdim=region&hl=en_US&dl=en&ind=false
Mr John Baron (Con)
Mr Nigel Dodds (DUP)
Kelvin Hopkins(Lab)
Mr Peter Bone (Con)
Mr Philip Hollobone (Con)
John Cryer (Lab)
Philip Davies (Con)
Mr Douglas Carswell (Con)
Mr Edward Leigh (Con)
Mr John Redwood (Con)
Mr David Davis (Con)
Mr Bernard Jenkin (Con)
Dr Matthew Offord (Con)
Mr William Cash (Con)
Mr Crispin Blunt (Con)
Mr Aidan Burley (Con)
Karen Lumley (Con)
Andrew Rosindell (Con)
Bill Wiggin (Con)
Chris Kelly (Con)
Mr David Nuttall (Con)
Mrs Cheryl Gillan (Con)
Andrew Bingham (Con)
Fiona Bruce (Con)
Craig Whittaker (Con)
Mr James Gray (Con)
Adam Afriyie (Con)
Jason McCartney (Con)
Henry Smith (Con)
Andrew Percy (Con)
Mark Pritchard (Con)
Mr Ian Liddell-Grainger (Con)
Mr James Clappison (Con)
Mrs Anne Main (Con)
Stephen McPartland (Con)
Heather Wheeler (Con)
Mr Charles Walker (Con)
Sheryll Murray (Con)
Mr Laurence Robertson (Con)
Bob Stewart (Con)
Richard Drax (Con)
Martin Vickers (Con)
Mike Weatherley (Con)
Gordon Henderson (Con)
Zac Goldsmith (Con)
Kate Hoey (Lab)
Steve Brine (Con)
Nigel Mills (Con)
Mr Andrew Turner (Con)
Dr Julian Lewis (Con)
John Stevenson (Con)
Guto Bebb (Con)
Nick de Bois (Con)
Mr Brian Binley (Con)
Sir Richard Shepherd (Con)
Mr Adam Holloway (Con)
Gavin Barwell (Con)
Mr Stewart Jackson (Con)
Dr William McCrea (DUP)
David Morris (Con)
Dr Sarah Wollaston (Con)
Mr Frank Field (Lab)
Natascha Engel (Lab)
Sir Roger Gale (Con)
Charlotte Leslie (Con)
Anne Marie Morris (Con)
Iain Stewart (Con)
David Simpson (DUP)
Mr Jeffrey M. Donaldson (DUP)
Jim Shannon (DUP)
Bob Blackman (Con)
Mr Gregory Campbell (DUP)
Mr David Amess (Con)
Mr Christopher Chope (Con)
Conor Burns (Con)
Alun Cairns (Con)
Dr Phillip Lee (Con)
Nadine Dorries (Con)
Andrew Bridgen (Con)
Caroline Nokes (Con)
Graham Stringer (Lab)
Dan Byles (Con)
Simon Hart (Con)
Grahame M. Morris (Lab)
Jeremy Corbyn (Lab)
Mr Dennis Skinner (Lab)
Tim Loughton (Con)
John Hemming (LD)
Austin Mitchell (Lab)
Sir Gerald Howarth (Con)
Karl McCartney (Con)
Rosie Cooper (Lab)
..............................................
Toodles ....
This Friday is International Day Against Homophobia (IDAHO).
May 17 was chosen to commemorate the World Health Organization’s decision in 1990 to declassify homosexuality as a mental disorder.
Can't believe it was a recent as 1990 that homosexuality was considered an illness.
Starting to see how attitudes can change so rapidly. Within a single generation we have moved from this to widley accepting same-sex marriage.
"The Labour Party is broke. According to Sam Coates in this morning’s Times, “Labour is facing a new financial crisis after it emerged that the party depends on a massive overdraft from the troubled Co-operative Bank. The party relies on a £3.9 million lifeline from the ailing lender, which could be cut as part of the overhaul or sale of the bank.”
To be fair, the Labour Party has always been as profligate with its own money as it is with everybody else’s."
"There seems to be a strange silence concerning the crisis afflicting the Left’s favourite banking institution. As far as I’m aware UK Uncut has no protests planned. The banks directors are not facing sit-ins on their driveways from activists enraged at the betrayal of the bank’s loyal customers. I haven’t read that Labour has any debates planned or EDMs tabled. Not so much as a single call from Ed Miliband for an urgent public inquiry. Nor does a trawl of the internet find any record of demands from the Labour leader, or his front bench spokesman, for former boss Neville Richardson, who left the Co-Op in 2011 with £4.6 million, to repay any of his bonus."
You really are rattled.
"...Sean Thomas is a vile piece of scum who by trying to take attention away from these gangs and blame the wholly innocent Nick Griffin is himself complicit in child rape."
I've missed this meme. Why oh why has it not fed through to the wider electorate?
Osbo on top form, seizing on Hollande GDP woes. 'We don't hear much of the French connection from Labour these days'
hehehe
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sexual_Offences_Act_1967
http://news.stv.tv/north/225325-ukip-unveils-its-candidate-for-the-aberdeen-donside-by-election/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aberdeen_Donside_(Scottish_Parliament_constituency)#Election_results
The good news just keeps on coming. And Labour on 34% 2 years from GE, Milibands stock is falling fast - time to fire up the quattro!
"Socrates said:
This is an incredible bit from SeanT's column:
"Why did Afzal [head of the North West prosecution service] succeed where others feared to tread? Afzal himself says: "My Pakistani heritage helped cut through barriers within the black and minority ethnic communities, And white professionals' oversensitivity to political correctness and fear of appearing racist may well have contributed to justice being stalled.”"
The actual head of the authority in charge of getting these convictions has says its down to oversensitivity to political correctness. How on Earth does this not get reported by the mainstream media?"
To be fair, I saw this reported a while back. So it has been - even if not widely publicised.
And over-sensitivity was not the only reason. On Newsnight last night Keir Starmer was very good at explaining how prosecutors assessed the evidential value of the victims and came up with the conclusion that they would be poor witnesses hence no point prosecuting rather than seeing them as abused children and looking at the wider picture.
We have a tendency to forget that 12-13-14-year olds are children. All the more so when they are abandoned in "care".
I see they've stopped comments on the latest from SeanT
Lab 306
Con 255
UKIP 45
LD 26
Thanks
This decision has kept me in paid work for my entire career. God bless the EU!
EDIT or to be more precise, I take Lord Irvine of Lairg's approach to the West Lothian Question.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danhodges/100217138/non-predatory-but-non-profitable-are-labour-still-singing-the-praises-of-the-co-operative-bank/